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pfrduke
12-03-2018, 02:08 AM
Just a quick rundown of the week to come.

Monday

[4]Virginia (-31) hosts [324]Morgan State (7:00, ACCNE)
[104]Pittsburgh (-14) hosts [270]Niagara (7:00, ACCNE)
[15]Florida State (-20) hosts [186]Troy (8:00, ACCNE)

Tuesday

[19]Syracuse (-11) hosts [79]Northeastern (6:45, ACCNE)
[74]Boston College (-3) hosts [64]Providence (7:00, ESPN2)
[54]Notre Dame (+2) vs. [40]Oklahoma in Madison Square Garden (7:00, ESPN)
[27]Clemson (-20) hosts [254]St. Peter's (7:00, ACCNE)
[35]Miami (-6) at [140]Pennsylvania (7:00, ESPN+)

Wednesday

[1]Duke (-29) hosts [215]Hartford (7:00, ESPN2)
[11]Virginia Tech (-28) hosts [317]VMI (7:00, ACCNE)
[28]NC State (-26) hosts [314]Western Carolina (7:00, ACCNE)
[48]Louisville (-19) hosts [272]Central Arkansas (7:00, ACCNE)
[7]North Carolina (-25) hosts [203]UNC Wilmington (9:00, ESPN2)

Thursday

[146]Wake Forest (-12) hosts [301]Charlotte (7:00, ACCNE)

Friday is dark


Saturday

[104]Pittsburgh (+11) at [25]West Virginia (12:00, ESPN2)
[48]Louisville (+7) at [26]Indiana (2:30, FOX)
[19]Syracuse (-13) hosts [101]Georgetown (3:30, ESPN)
[27]Clemson (+1) vs. [23]Mississippi State in Newark (4:00, ESPN2)
[1]Duke (-20) hosts [86]Yale (5:30, ESPN)
[74]Boston College (+3) at [78]Texas A&M (6:00, SECN)
[15]Florida State (-9) vs. [88]Connecticut in Newark (6:30, ESPN2)
[54]Notre Dame (+5) at [45]UCLA (10:30, ESPN2)

Sunday is

[11]Virginia Tech (-31) hosts [341]South Carolina State (1:00, ACCNE)
[4]Virginia (-17) hosts [109]VCU (1:30, ACCNE)
[76]Georgia Tech (-23) hosts [343]Florida A&M (2:00, ACCNE)

ACC Non-Conference: 86-24
ACC vs. Power 5: 19-16

America East: 2-0
American: 2-1
Atlantic-10: 6-2
Atlantic Sun: 2-0
Big XII: 0-1
Big East: 2-5
Big Sky: 1-0
Big South: 2-1
Big Ten: 9-7
Big West: 1-0
Colonial: 4-0
CUSA: 2-0
Horizon: 3-1
Ivy: 1-1
MAC: 3-0
MEAC: 5-0
MVC: 2-0
MWC: 3-0
Northeast: 8-0
Ohio Valley: 2-0
Pac-12: 2-1
Patriot: 2-1
SEC: 4-2
Southern: 7-0
Southland: 5-1
Sun Belt: 1-0
SWAC: 2-0
WAC: 2-0
WCC: 0-1

MChambers
12-03-2018, 11:43 AM
Looks like UVa is going to play every Division I team in Maryland before January. Except for UMBC, that is.

flyingdutchdevil
12-03-2018, 11:52 AM
Just a quick rundown of the week to come.

Monday

[4]Virginia (-31) hosts [324]Morgan State (7:00, ACCNE)
[104]Pittsburgh (-14) hosts [270]Niagara (7:00, ACCNE)
[15]Florida State (-20) hosts [186]Troy (8:00, ACCNE)

Tuesday

[19]Syracuse (-11) hosts [79]Northeastern (6:45, ACCNE)
[74]Boston College (-3) hosts [64]Providence (7:00, ESPN2)
[54]Notre Dame (+2) vs. [40]Oklahoma in Madison Square Garden (7:00, ESPN)
[27]Clemson (-20) hosts [254]St. Peter's (7:00, ACCNE)
[35]Miami (-6) at [140]Pennsylvania (7:00, ESPN+)

Wednesday

[1]Duke (-29) hosts [215]Hartford (7:00, ESPN2)
[11]Virginia Tech (-28) hosts [317]VMI (7:00, ACCNE)
[28]NC State (-26) hosts [314]Western Carolina (7:00, ACCNE)
[48]Louisville (-19) hosts [272]Central Arkansas (7:00, ACCNE)
[7]North Carolina (-25) hosts [203]UNC Wilmington (9:00, ESPN2)

Thursday

[146]Wake Forest (-12) hosts [301]Charlotte (7:00, ACCNE)

Friday is dark


Saturday

[104]Pittsburgh (+11) at [25]West Virginia (12:00, ESPN2)
[48]Louisville (+7) at [26]Indiana (2:30, FOX)
[19]Syracuse (-13) hosts [101]Georgetown (3:30, ESPN)
[27]Clemson (+1) vs. [23]Mississippi State in Newark (4:00, ESPN2)
[1]Duke (-20) hosts [86]Yale (5:30, ESPN)
[74]Boston College (+3) at [78]Texas A&M (6:00, SECN)
[15]Florida State (-9) vs. [88]Connecticut in Newark (6:30, ESPN2)
[54]Notre Dame (+5) at [45]UCLA (10:30, ESPN2)

Sunday is

[11]Virginia Tech (-31) hosts [341]South Carolina State (1:00, ACCNE)
[4]Virginia (-17) hosts [109]VCU (1:30, ACCNE)
[76]Georgia Tech (-23) hosts [343]Florida A&M (2:00, ACCNE)

ACC Non-Conference: 86-24
ACC vs. Power 5: 19-16

America East: 2-0
American: 2-1
Atlantic-10: 6-2
Atlantic Sun: 2-0
Big XII: 0-1
Big East: 2-5
Big Sky: 1-0
Big South: 2-1
Big Ten: 9-7
Big West: 1-0
Colonial: 4-0
CUSA: 2-0
Horizon: 3-1
Ivy: 1-1
MAC: 3-0
MEAC: 5-0
MVC: 2-0
MWC: 3-0
Northeast: 8-0
Ohio Valley: 2-0
Pac-12: 2-1
Patriot: 2-1
SEC: 4-2
Southern: 7-0
Southland: 5-1
Sun Belt: 1-0
SWAC: 2-0
WAC: 2-0
WCC: 0-1

Duke is only a 29 point favorite against Hartford? At Cameron? With a #214 ranked Hartford team? Not saying we'll beat Hartford by 64 points, but I think 29 is a little low...

Troublemaker
12-03-2018, 12:06 PM
Duke is only a 29 point favorite against Hartford? At Cameron? With a #214 ranked Hartford team? Not saying we'll beat Hartford by 64 points, but I think 29 is a little low...

Well, the actual Vegas line will probably open ~32.5 and then eventually get pushed out to 35 or so as bettors take Duke. It's always the kenpom line (29) plus a Duke tax added on.

As always, if you like Duke at those lines, you should join the degenerate gambling contest, place fake money on Duke and immediately jump into the top 10 in the standings with a win. Your knowledge should be rewarded.

sagegrouse
12-03-2018, 12:56 PM
Some tough scheduling for five ACC teams this week. ND is an underdog to Oklahoma on Tuesday at MSG and @ UCLA on Saturday. Also, undedogs on Saturday -- Pitt, Lullville, Clemson, and BC.


[54]Notre Dame (+2) vs. [40]Oklahoma in Madison Square Garden (7:00, ESPN)

[104]Pittsburgh (+11) at [25]West Virginia (12:00, ESPN2)
[48]Louisville (+7) at [26]Indiana (2:30, FOX)
[27]Clemson (+1) vs. [23]Mississippi State in Newark (4:00, ESPN2)
[74]Boston College (+3) at [78]Texas A&M (6:00, SECN)
[54]Notre Dame (+5) at [45]UCLA (10:30, ESPN2)

JasonEvans
12-03-2018, 02:54 PM
Some tough scheduling for five ACC teams this week. ND is an underdog to Oklahoma on Tuesday at MSG and @ UCLA on Saturday. Also, undedogs on Saturday -- Pitt, Lullville, Clemson, and BC.

After the ridiculously easy schedules tackled by many ACC teams earlier in the season, it is time for them to bite off something a little tougher. Notre Dame has the 316th ranked schedule in the country right now in KenPom, BC is 327, Pitt is 337, and NC State is 351 (out of 353 teams).

http://scriptoriumdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/16da4f863da25c013fbf449b6c67f177d026b0c254ae29f7e7 f999c332a729db.jpg

PackMan97
12-03-2018, 03:06 PM
NC State is 351 (out of 353 teams).

After playing wisky and vandy last week...not buying it. Before last week....sure. After last week. I'm going to guess there are at least a good 20 teams with easier schedules.

State takes a break for exams (this includes this weeks game) and then gets down to business with Auburn and Penn State before two more puff pastries and entering the ACC schedule.

JasonEvans
12-03-2018, 03:12 PM
After playing wisky and vandy last week...not buying it. Before last week...sure. After last week. I'm going to guess there are at least a good 20 teams with easier schedules.

State takes a break for exams (this includes this weeks game) and then gets down to business with Auburn and Penn State before two more puff pastries and entering the ACC schedule.

I don't decide on the rankings, I just report em. Pomeroy has NCSU at #351 right now. I suspect that Wisconsin and Vandy did not help much because State had played such a horrible rogues gallery of wretched teams up until that point. The dumbest way to schedule is 8 games against bad teams and then 2 against really good teams. You get no credit for beating the bad and you are likely to lose to the good. Much better to play 10 games against decent, but not all that threatening, competition. You end up 10-0 and folks see your schedule strength as decent.

English
12-03-2018, 03:20 PM
I don't decide on the rankings, I just report em. Pomeroy has NCSU at #351 right now. I suspect that Wisconsin and Vandy did not help much because State had played such a horrible rogues gallery of wretched teams up until that point. The dumbest way to schedule is 8 games against bad teams and then 2 against really good teams. You get no credit for beating the bad and you are likely to lose to the good. Much better to play 10 games against decent, but not all that threatening, competition. You end up 10-0 and folks see your schedule strength as decent.

I agree with your larger point--if you're talking only about SOS, and not preparation for conference and post-season play--but are we sure we want to call Vandy without its best player a really good team? I'd pump the brakes there. They're likely an NIT team this season, barring some real exceeded expectations. YMMV on 'Scon, but I'd concede they're a solid squad.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-03-2018, 03:29 PM
So Syracuse beats NET ranked number one OSU and skyrockets up the poll.....from 45 to 44, and Ohio State sunk to 26th (now 20th). Duke hung in at 4th and Texas Tech is 5th. (I realize I missed one week in there).......

Time will tell, but not sold on this system yet.

English
12-03-2018, 03:43 PM
So Syracuse beats NET ranked number one OSU and skyrockets up the poll....from 45 to 44, and Ohio State sunk to 26th (now 20th). Duke hung in at 4th and Texas Tech is 5th. (I realize I missed one week in there)....

Time will tell, but not sold on this system yet.

NCSU and its battle tested squad come in at No. 15. Meanwhile, unx managed to weasel its way into the top-25 at No. 18.

ACC teams and their respective ranks:
1. UVa
4. Duke
15. NCSU
18. unx
22. Pitt
26. VaTech
34. ND
38. Louville
40. FSU
45. Cuse
55. Clemson
84. Miami
91. BC
94. GaTech
233. Wake

PackMan97
12-03-2018, 03:49 PM
I don't decide on the rankings, I just report em. Pomeroy has NCSU at #351 right now. I suspect that Wisconsin and Vandy did not help much because State had played such a horrible rogues gallery of wretched teams up until that point. The dumbest way to schedule is 8 games against bad teams and then 2 against really good teams. You get no credit for beating the bad and you are likely to lose to the good. Much better to play 10 games against decent, but not all that threatening, competition. You end up 10-0 and folks see your schedule strength as decent.

If you are looking to be on the bubble, yes that strategy is great.

I'll admit Gottfried was pretty good at making a schedule look tough without being tough. It got us nowhere as a program.

State will play plenty of good teams during ACC season. His plan is simple. Beat them and your in the NCAAT. I'm sure once he's not looking to cobble together a team, the schedule will improve (at least I hope so).

Troublemaker
12-03-2018, 04:12 PM
So Syracuse beats NET ranked number one OSU and skyrockets up the poll...from 45 to 44, and Ohio State sunk to 26th (now 20th). Duke hung in at 4th and Texas Tech is 5th. (I realize I missed one week in there)...

Time will tell, but not sold on this system yet.

Within a week's time from initial release, NET already looks a lot more sensible, almost pedestrian. I have no doubt that by March, it will be fine and certainly many times better than RPI, even if NET is 1-2% worse than kenpom, sagarin, etc.

The initial reaction against NET seems overblown.

CDu
12-03-2018, 04:18 PM
Within a week's time from initial release, NET already looks a lot more sensible, almost pedestrian. I have no doubt that by March, it will be fine and certainly many times better than RPI, even if NET is 1-2% worse than kenpom, sagarin, etc.

The initial reaction against NET seems overblown.

Yeah, they really made a mistake in rolling it out after just 5-6 games (most of which were against patsies). They probably could have waited until January and gotten far less grief.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-03-2018, 05:02 PM
Within a week's time from initial release, NET already looks a lot more sensible, almost pedestrian. I have no doubt that by March, it will be fine and certainly many times better than RPI, even if NET is 1-2% worse than kenpom, sagarin, etc.

The initial reaction against NET seems overblown.

Can't speak for others, but my reaction was 80% based on the panning this system had gotten beforehand by some other statisticians (who admittedly may have ulterior motives) and only 20% on the bizarre ranking of Ohio State number one and Duke as low as six and so on. And apparently they cap margin of victory at ten, and do some other questionable things in this mix. Capping the margin at ten is extremely flawed, 5 games in or 35 games in, period. The CFB Play Off committee and their "game control" metric is far superior on that score.

Bottom line, it is too soon to judge yay or nay, but it's not too soon to bring up some already known idiosyncrasies of the system. Besides, this is a forum...it's what forums do.

OldPhiKap
12-03-2018, 05:05 PM
Is this a must-be-decent year for Danny Manning? This is his fifth season, and the best they have done is making one NCAA play-in game. Last year was his worst record of the four completed. 20-52 in conference through four.

arnie
12-03-2018, 05:16 PM
Is this a must-be-decent year for Danny Manning? This is his fifth season, and the best they have done is making one NCAA play-in game. Last year was his worst record of the four completed. 20-52 in conference through four.

Heard but havenít verified his buyout is similar to Fedoras 12 mill. If true, someone else at WF should be fired

OldPhiKap
12-03-2018, 05:24 PM
Heard but havenít verified his buyout is similar to Fedoras 12 mill. If true, someone else at WF should be fired

Thanks. I would like to see him succeed, even though he beat us in a huge game while in college.

arnie
12-03-2018, 06:31 PM
Thanks. I would like to see him succeed, even though he beat us in a huge game while in college.

Yea as long as get our two victories each year from WF, Iím fine with Danny succeeding.

Tripping William
12-03-2018, 06:33 PM
Is this a must-be-decent year for Danny Manning? This is his fifth season, and the best they have done is making one NCAA play-in game. Last year was his worst record of the four completed. 20-52 in conference through four.


Heard but havenít verified his buyout is similar to Fedoras 12 mill. If true, someone else at WF should be fired


Thanks. I would like to see him succeed, even though he beat us in a huge game while in college.

The locals here in Geneva are starting to get a little restless, even though Manning has gotten and will get far more leeway than Bzdelik. I had one Swissman suggest, in all seriousness, that Manning should have been axed right after the loss to Houston Baptist, if only to use the remaining season to see if Coach Randolph Childress has ďit.Ē Thatís an outlier theory, but Zurichers are already thinking post-Danny (whenever that ends up being).

Troublemaker
12-03-2018, 07:59 PM
Can't speak for others, but my reaction was 80% based on the panning this system had gotten beforehand by some other statisticians (who admittedly may have ulterior motives) and only 20% on the bizarre ranking of Ohio State number one and Duke as low as six and so on. And apparently they cap margin of victory at ten, and do some other questionable things in this mix. Capping the margin at ten is extremely flawed, 5 games in or 35 games in, period. The CFB Play Off committee and their "game control" metric is far superior on that score.

Bottom line, it is too soon to judge yay or nay, but it's not too soon to bring up some already known idiosyncrasies of the system. Besides, this is a forum...it's what forums do.

Sure. I did not mean that as an attack on you.

As for Nate Silver, a lot of times when you add twitter to a supposed expert, the expert makes not-so-good tweets occasionally. I think anyone who consumes twitter can readily remember examples of experts-gone-wild(ly)-dumb when they make a hot take / instant reaction. Silver knows that in a small sample of games, even kenpom's ratings would look rough without preseason expectations built-in to anchor them. (Which is probably why KenPom changed to incorporate preseason expectations awhile ago).

Look, the NCAA said that Google engineers helped them write NET. Unless the NCAA is lying, I think NET will turn out just fine. It may not deserve an A+ grade like maybe kenpom does. But I'm sure it's good enough to get an A or B whereas the RPI was probably in the D to F range.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-03-2018, 08:44 PM
As for Nate Silver, a lot of times when you add twitter to a supposed expert, the expert makes not-so-good tweets occasionally. I think anyone who consumes twitter can readily remember examples of experts-gone-wild(ly)-dumb when they make a hot take / instant reaction. Silver knows that in a small sample of games, even kenpom's ratings would look rough without preseason expectations built-in to anchor them. (Which is probably why KenPom changed to incorporate preseason expectations awhile ago)..

Well it could be Silver wanted 538 to assist the NCAA, and not Google - so he may have had fish to fry in this. That said, Silver gained my respect when he wrote, a few days before the 2016 election, that people assuming his 83% chance that Clinton would win equals a sure bet are crazy. He warned them, the people he generally agrees with politically, that a 17% chance for Trump was equal to rolling a 3 with a single die. You wouldn't predict it, he said, but you would never be shocked either. He said don't be shocked.

All of this to say that I have a tremendous respect for Silver's work and his intuitive understanding of numbers and percentages, regarding sports and politics. His metrics are very well thought out, and when he criticized the NET system, and the first rankings were screwy, my radar went up. But I agree, we may all think it's just great by Feb.

JasonEvans
12-03-2018, 08:53 PM
Within a week's time from initial release, NET already looks a lot more sensible, almost pedestrian. I have no doubt that by March, it will be fine and certainly many times better than RPI, even if NET is 1-2% worse than kenpom, sagarin, etc.

The initial reaction against NET seems overblown.

There are still some ugly outliers in the NET.

Pomeroy has Pitt at 104, the NET has the Panthers at 22.
Buffalo appears to be very good for a mid-major, but the NET has them at #13, which is probably a bit high.
NC State at #15, given that they have played a terrible schedule, seems somewhat crazy.
Utah State is another mid-major that looks like they could be good, but #17 in the land? I think not.
Radford is #30 in the NET. Pomeroy says they are the #119 team in the land.

Clearly, the more games that are played, the better this system will get at sorting the real teams from the pretenders. The fact that it caps margin of victory and does not consider quality of opponent in its efficiency measures means it will always be worse than most of the other widely watched metrics, but I am betting it won't be horribly flawed in the end. Still, I am pleased the committee will have rankings by Pomeroy, BPI, and Sagarin in their room with them when they deliberate.

-Jason "I don't get why the NCAA did not just elect to use Pom/BPI/Sag and why they bothered to buld their own system" Evans

cato
12-03-2018, 11:29 PM
-Jason "I don't get why the NCAA did not just elect to use Pom/BPI/Sag and why they bothered to buld their own system" Evans

Is BPI any good?

At any rate, I wonder what the terms of service would say about the NCAA using any of these proprietary services in connection with its very lucrative spring sporting event?

JasonEvans
12-04-2018, 08:52 AM
Is BPI any good?

At any rate, I wonder what the terms of service would say about the NCAA using any of these proprietary services in connection with its very lucrative spring sporting event?

I've never heard any serious criticism of the BPI and I hear it cited fairly often by folks who watch higher metrics. I think it has a good reputation.

As for your other point, these publicly available rankings are already part of the information provided to the committee. What's more I would argue that if the committee was willing to formally endorse one or two or three of them it would lend so much credibility and importance to that ranking system that the people behind that system would be thrilled to provide it to the committee for free.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-04-2018, 09:10 AM
i've never heard any serious criticism of the bpi and i hear it cited fairly often by folks who watch higher metrics. I think it has a good reputation.

As for your other point, these publicly available rankings are already part of the information provided to the committee. What's more i would argue that if the committee was willing to formally endorse one or two or three of them it would lend so much credibility and importance to that ranking system that the people behind that system would be thrilled to provide it to the committee for free.

yes...^^^ x 4.

DarkstarWahoo
12-04-2018, 09:19 AM
Just going to put this out there and back away slowly, although it also could have fit in the manager thread. YOU CAN'T ARGUE WITH RAW NUMBERS.

Points per 40 minutes:

Zion Williamson: 31.8
R.J. Barrett: 28.8
Cam Reddish: 28.8
Grant "GOAT" Kersey: 44.4

cato
12-04-2018, 12:28 PM
As for your other point, these publicly available rankings are already part of the information provided to the committee. What's more I would argue that if the committee was willing to formally endorse one or two or three of them it would lend so much credibility and importance to that ranking system that the people behind that system would be thrilled to provide it to the committee for free.

I am less confident than you that people would be willing to give away their proprietary product to a massive money making operation for free. Also, if the NCAA is going to rely on the rankings in a significant way, wonít they need to know the sausage is made?

JasonEvans
12-04-2018, 12:39 PM
I am less confident than you that people would be willing to give away their proprietary product to a massive money making operation for free. Also, if the NCAA is going to rely on the rankings in a significant way, wonít they need to know the sausage is made?

Just so we are clear... they already do. The selection committee is provided the BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin rankings in the deliberation room. I don't know why you think anything else needs to be done.

The smartest move for the NCAA would have been to get rid of the RPI and replace it with nothing.

cato
12-04-2018, 01:07 PM
Just so we are clear... they already do. The selection committee is provided the BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin rankings in the deliberation room. I don't know why you think anything else needs to be done.

The smartest move for the NCAA would have been to get rid of the RPI and replace it with nothing.

Unless I am mistaken, they have the final product (the rankings/sausage) but not the proprietary methodology (how the sausage is made). My assumption is that the NCAA wants to have their own proprietary methodology, and it was cheaper to hire some engineers to prepare one that NCAA can control than to cut a deal with KenPom or Sagarin.

Troublemaker
12-04-2018, 01:40 PM
Well it could be Silver wanted 538 to assist the NCAA, and not Google - so he may have had fish to fry in this.

Ha, Silver did react like he had his job/internship application rejected by Google 20 years ago or something.


There are still some ugly outliers in the NET.

Pomeroy has Pitt at 104, the NET has the Panthers at 22.
Buffalo appears to be very good for a mid-major, but the NET has them at #13, which is probably a bit high.
NC State at #15, given that they have played a terrible schedule, seems somewhat crazy.
Utah State is another mid-major that looks like they could be good, but #17 in the land? I think not.
Radford is #30 in the NET. Pomeroy says they are the #119 team in the land.

That likely has to do with KenPom incorporating preseason expectations as an anchor, though. If he didn't have that anchor, he might have some weird results as well. I mean, let's face it, up until last night, Pitt had been playing REALLY well. Routinely beating the point spread by a lot, as you probably known, my fellow degenerate.



-Jason "I don't get why the NCAA did not just elect to use Pom/BPI/Sag and why they bothered to buld their own system" Evans

Unless I am mistaken, they have the final product (the rankings/sausage) but not the proprietary methodology (how the sausage is made). My assumption is that the NCAA wants to have their own proprietary methodology, and it was cheaper to hire some engineers to prepare one that NCAA can control than to cut a deal with KenPom or Sagarin.

Agree with cato. The NCAA wants their own proprietary formula and control of that formula. What if, for example, and God forbid, Pomeroy gets his face smashed into a headboard at home, causing brain damage. Brain-damaged Pomeroy then loses all inhibitions, goes rogue, and decides to favor alma mater VaTech in his rankings, pushing the Hokies way up the rankings into the 1 seed area.

I see the logic in the NCAA wanting to own their own model. Unfortunately, though, the NCAA has not released the details for NET (yet?). The one advantage of RPI is that its formula was publicly available and could be reproduced by ESPN or random folks on the internet like the guy who ran (now defunct) RPIforecast.com: http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Troublemaker
12-07-2018, 09:58 AM
Saturday

[104]Pittsburgh (+11) at [25]West Virginia (12:00, ESPN2)
[48]Louisville (+7) at [26]Indiana (2:30, FOX)
[19]Syracuse (-13) hosts [101]Georgetown (3:30, ESPN)
[27]Clemson (+1) vs. [23]Mississippi State in Newark (4:00, ESPN2)
[1]Duke (-20) hosts [86]Yale (5:30, ESPN)
[74]Boston College (+3) at [78]Texas A&M (6:00, SECN)
[15]Florida State (-9) vs. [88]Connecticut in Newark (6:30, ESPN2)
[54]Notre Dame (+5) at [45]UCLA (10:30, ESPN2)


Man, a lot of good games tomorrow. Hopefully can watch a couple of these.

sagegrouse
12-07-2018, 10:27 AM
Ha, Silver did react like he had his job/internship application rejected by Google 20 years ago or something.


I'm with Silver. I can't imagine engaging Google for a job involving the behavioral science and statistical applications of rating college basketball teams. Sure, Google may have experts on staff but the institutional expertise lies elsewhere -- Google could screw this up bigtime.

camion
12-07-2018, 10:37 AM
I'm with Silver. I can't imagine engaging Google for a job involving the behavioral science and statistical applications of rating college basketball teams. Sure, Google may have experts on staff but the institutional expertise lies elsewhere -- Google could screw this up bigtime.

Wait, it seems you might think this should discourage the NCAA from enlisting Google.

I would agree that it should, but do you really think that it would? :confused:

Troublemaker
12-07-2018, 10:47 AM
I'm with Silver. I can't imagine engaging Google for a job involving the behavioral science and statistical applications of rating college basketball teams. Sure, Google may have experts on staff but the institutional expertise lies elsewhere -- Google could screw this up bigtime.

I can't see how. A few things:

(1) Even in early December, and without relying on preseason ratings to anchor, the NET already looks reasonable: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

(2) I disagree on how hard the task is. I think you could take any college senior majoring in Statistics, task him/her with developing a College Basketball ranking system, and that person will do a reasonably good job. Let's say KenPom is the gold standard and is awesome. I think KenPom's ratings would only be about 5% better than whatever that statistically trained college senior could come up with, on average.

(3) If there's any failure, I'm not sure it would be on Google. It would probably be in the design requirements that the NCAA gave to Google. So, for example, lots of people have been complaining about capping the scoring margin at an arbitrary 10. Who came up with that idea? Google or the NCAA? Probably the NCAA, right? It seemingly loathes to have its member schools run up the score on each other.

BTW, I'm not a fanboy of Google -- far from it actually. But I just can't see how they could mess this up badly. It's just a ranking system.

JasonEvans
12-07-2018, 11:55 AM
Even in early December, and without relying on preseason ratings to anchor, the NET already looks reasonable: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Look, I am sure that with more data, the NET will look better and better, but to say it looks "reasonable" right now is to ignore some of the glaring outliers it is currently creating.

Buffalo is not the 12th best team in the land and NC State is not the 13th best. If we used the NET to make a field today and Buffalo was given a #3 or #4 seed, the outcry would be deafening.

I love Bobby, but Arizona St will be fortunate to be a bubble team this year. The NET currently has them at #17 in the land. Cross-state rival Arizona is the NET's #18. Pomeroy says ASU is #45 and Az is #49. That seems a lot more reasonable.

Furman is 9-0 on the season. Good for them! But they are not the #32nd best team in the land (Pomeroy says they are #115).

The NET says North Texas is a solid bubble team at #42. Pom says they are #124. The NET loves Liberty at #37, Pomeroy thinks they are #94.

The NET laughs at the notion of West Virginia as a tourney team. After all, they are #127 in the NET. Pomeroy (and everyone who has seen them play) thinks otherwise. Pom has WVA as his #27 team.

The NET doesn't think much of Kansas' chance for a #1 seed, making the Jayhawks the #9 team in the land. Can you imagine the screams if Kansas was a #3 seed?

I could go on and on. The NET may not be a total mess at this point, but I'd say at something like 10% of teams are pretty clearly ranked either significantly too high or too low. I get that teams have not played a lot of games, but this thing still looks bad at the moment.

-Jason "that said, I do agree that in a few weeks it will probably get closer and closer to BPI, Pom, and Sag... it better or the NCAA is going to have a real PR disaster on their hands" Evans

budwom
12-07-2018, 12:06 PM
Man, a lot of good games tomorrow. Hopefully can watch a couple of these.

Ha, FSU-UCONN in Newark? That's an odd matchup for a large arena in that particular location...

PackMan97
12-07-2018, 12:40 PM
Any ranking system that puts NC State ahead of the Cheats has definite merit.

Don't be hating because it recognizes the greatness of NC State's four guards and a skinny tall kid. Besides, I imagine we will find out of State is deserving of any hype next week when they play Auburn.

camion
12-07-2018, 01:43 PM
Look, I am sure that with more data, the NET will look better and better, but to say it looks "reasonable" right now is to ignore some of the glaring outliers it is currently creating.


Furman is 9-0 on the season. Good for them! But they are not the #32nd best team in the land (Pomeroy says they are #115).


-Jason "that said, I do agree that in a few weeks it will probably get closer and closer to BPI, Pom, and Sag... it better or the NCAA is going to have a real PR disaster on their hands" Evans

Hey!! I resent that. I don't deny it I just resent it.

Notes:
I have been at Furman for 20 years.
I am a senior.
I hope to graduate soon.

duketaylor
12-09-2018, 02:51 PM
VCU up by one, early 2nd half. On now, locally (Richmond) televised on comcast 7.

robed deity
12-09-2018, 03:24 PM
Extremely questionable call helps fuel a Cavs 5 point play. Looks like they'll pull away and hold on.

SavDukeGrad
12-09-2018, 03:30 PM
VCU up by one, early 2nd half. On now, locally (Richmond) televised on comcast 7.

UVa starting to pull away now. However, a couple of things I noticed:


With 7 minutes left in the game, UVa had only scored 9 points in the second half (per Dan Bonner). In 13 minutes!

UVA was assisted by some fortunate officiating. VCU still held a 1 point lead with 4 or 5 minutes left. Then UVa had a 5 point possession (a Jerome 3 and a foul away from the play) Iím not saying it was necessarily a bad call, just that UVA never trailed again after that play.

duketaylor
12-09-2018, 03:33 PM
Agree, very strange possession was that. UVA's good, but they can let teams hang around too much. Both teams shot 29%, prolly why I spent more time watching NFL. Ugly ballgame; tried getting tix, glad I didn't!

HereBeforeCoachK
12-09-2018, 04:08 PM
Agree, very strange possession was that. UVA's good, but they can let teams hang around too much. Both teams shot 29%, Ugly ballgame; tried getting tix, glad I didn't!

And by ugly game, you mean typical UVa game?

English
12-10-2018, 11:12 AM
And by ugly game, you mean typical UVa game?

It's probably posted elsewhere, but UVa's starting PG, Kihei Clark, will have surgery on an injured left wrist--it seems he suffered the injury in this VCU game. He's not expected to miss the full season, but his timeline for return is...dun dun DUNNNN...indefinite.

Tough blow for the Cavs.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-10-2018, 11:14 AM
It's probably posted elsewhere, but UVa's starting PG, Kihei Clark, will have surgery on an injured left wrist--it seems he suffered the injury in this VCU game. He's not expected to miss the full season, but his timeline for return is...dun dun DUNNNN...indefinite.

Tough blow for the Cavs.

I know, I hate that. I hate all the injuries lately...from our poor FB team's defense, to Alex Smith and that horrible situation, to several key hoopsters........really takes some of the fun out of this for me....and no doubt for them, their coaches and teammates.

pfrduke
12-10-2018, 11:41 AM
Just a note - this week's will not be up until tonight at the earliest, but there are no games until Wednesday (which are the only two games before Saturday). Exam week is always super slow (although not sure what UNC's excuse is for taking the week off...)

jhmoss1812
12-11-2018, 01:40 PM
It's probably posted elsewhere, but UVa's starting PG, Kihei Clark, will have surgery on an injured left wrist--it seems he suffered the injury in this VCU game. He's not expected to miss the full season, but his timeline for return is...dun dun DUNNNN...indefinite.

Tough blow for the Cavs.

He actually injured his wrist against Morgan State taking a charge. He played with a cast against VCU and held VCU guard Marcus Evans to his lowest point total of his career. He also managed 9 points (7-7 from the FT line). Dude is an absolute pest as a perimeter defender. I'm sure better teams will learn how to capitalize on his short height but he's proving a lot of UVA fans wrong. A lot of our fans criticized Bennett on Clark's recruitment but he's quickly turning into a fan favorite. At least this injury didn't happen a few days before the NCAA tourney :)

HereBeforeCoachK
12-11-2018, 01:53 PM
He actually injured his wrist against Morgan State taking a charge. :)

Uh, that was a very poor risk / reward analysis he performed there......