MBB: Phase II (through Texas Tech) [Archive]

Troublemaker

11-28-2018, 12:16 PM

I, Troublemaker (henceforth "TM"), had the pleasure of writing a Phase post with superdave (henceforth "SD"). Our thoughts are below. I will continue to add my thoughts to this thread as the Phase progresses.

(SD): With the Gonzaga loss so recent, it might be easy to focus on the negatives. But our guys are ahead of where most people thought they’d be in terms of cohesiveness and maturity. We have some good wins under the belt as well as some good tape to study. Phase II runs through Texas Tech on December 20th. Then on to the ACC for Phase III.

HEALTH

(TM): As usual, hopefully everyone remains healthy through this Phase and beyond. There is no current significant injury of note, but one does wonder whether Javin and Alex's relative struggles thus far in this early season have anything to do with missing practices as they recovered from their late summer injuries. Alex suffered a broken eye socket that he had surgery on, and Javin missed a couple of weeks with a stress reaction in his foot. Maybe this is the Phase where those two can break out a bit, especially against weaker opponents at home.

(SD): Our faster pace and the pre-season tournament grind is showcasing our depth right now with 8 guys playing 10+ minutes per game. We all know this will revert to the norm and that we cannot afford to lose anyone. Each guy in the top 6 is going to play big minutes. An injury to any one of them will force the team to adjust. After a lot of frustrating injuries, I am praying for a reprieve this season.

DUKE'S BEST LINEUP

(SD): Our starting lineup is going to be really formidable if Bolden can protect the rim and finish plays. The team really jumps a notch when Bolden is dunking and blocking shots like he did vs Auburn. However, it may be advantageous to play smaller and switch screens vs smaller, quicker opponents, so either Javin or Jack will absorb some of Bolden’s minutes. This is totally situational. In the Auburn game, Bolden played 25 minutes to Jack’s 24 and Javin’s 10. In the Gonzaga game, Bolden played 15 minutes to Jack’s 26 and Javin’s 15. These three guys are really the ones who will ebb and flow from game to game.

On the plus/minus side of things, Jack White is in 10 of the top 11 lineups. Caveats aside, does he just provide glue and dirty work that no one else really can? Is it enough to keep him playing heavy rotation minutes even if he doesn’t start? He’s shooting .375 from 3-land right now, so if he keeps that up, then the answer is yes. I think you will continue to see Bolden start and Jack finish games.

The other issue that has bubbled up is Cam Reddish playing a little less than the other freshman starters, most noticeably against Gonzaga. He got into foul trouble, but can Duke afford to have its leading 3-point shooter on the bench for stretches? The only way that works is if Jack approaches 40% and Tre shoots a little more.

(TM): Great points, my friend. I do think Jack + 4 freshmen is going to be our best lineup most of the time versus the most opponents. On offense, Jack creates so much more room for the talented frosh than Marques and Javin do. And on defense, Jack is a capable help, switch, and 1-on-1 defender from what I've seen. He gives us the versatility to switch 1 thru 5, which the NBA has taught us is the only way to really defend the beautiful, flowing, continuity offenses like Gonzaga displayed in Maui or like the Warriors display when they're healthy and right mentally.

RJ BARRETT

(TM): RJ will remain the player who takes the most shots on the team, to the chagrin of many. Now, Duke definitely does need to lower his usage (giving more possessions to Zion), and more importantly, RJ needs to become more efficient with the possessions he does use, but I think those things will come. This strikes me as a classic "buy low" point for RJ, and others have made the comparisons to Brandon Ingram's first 7 games or Jayson Tatum's, which I agree with. And even then, those guys didn't start their Duke careers with an efficient 33 points against Kentucky.

As for his end-of-game decision-making against Gonzaga, it was certainly not good. He definitely needs to make a dump off to a big or a kickout to an open three-point shooter when they are available instead of forcing things in a crowd. That said, I'd be shocked if he hadn't made the right play and/or scored successfully a couple dozen times before in practice. Duke, like many teams, practices game situations all the time. There's no way his teammates clear out for him and his coaches allow him to take his man if he hadn't done so with success many times before. He made several poor decisions against Gonzaga in the endgame, but I highly suspect he comes through in the clutch in the future. There's a reason his teammates and coaches respect him so.

(SD): To the chagrin of many? He’s averaging 23 a game! What do people want!

In all seriousness, RJ needs to cut out long 2’s and dish more on drives. I do think he will grow more efficient, but I want to hi-jack this RJ discussion a little and make it about Tre. The more Tre becomes the leader, the distributor, the QB and all that, the better and more efficient everyone else becomes.

RJ’s improvement will come as the team starts to develop more of a half-court identity. Their instincts are to run, but opponent’s defensive schemes are going to try to slow the game down, pack in the D and force Duke to shoot over the top. The key to the half-court improvement is likely to be a patient, probing point guard. Tre can get everyone buckets and keep us out of the one-on-one iso ball we have seen a bit much of.

DEFENSE

(SD): Our man-to-man has been overwhelming at times. As young team, we have not been consistent. It seems that coaches and players are pleased with how the team communicates on defense. It helps to be athletic and have a pretty good on-ball defender at the top. We are top 10 in Adjusted Defense in KenPom’s rankings today. Big picture so far: the defense has been pretty good.

The 1-2-2 full court press has managed to knock back opponents and show off Duke’s bench strength. The over-playing of passing lanes has generated live ball turnovers and made Duke look like the old Runnin Rebels. But pace does have tradeoffs.

Through the Gonzaga game, the stats show Duke giving up about 13 offensive rebounds a game which is a little worse than you’d hope for. That represents 79 offensive rebounds on our opponent’s 400 fg attempts to date, or 22.5%. Last year, Duke gave up 11.67 offensive rebounds per game or 432/2364 for 18.27%. So our pace and small ball lineups are probably giving up second chance opportunities and even some easy transition buckets. We can get better here but it may be a tradeoff we live with at times.

Zion and Marques are blocking 9% and 10% of shots that come their way, respectively. If they can average half that, we’ll look pretty good. Wendell Carter was at 7.6% last year. So we are protecting the rim. Now we need to crash the defensive boards to tighten things up some.

(TM): Not much to add here. I would just say that I'd be surprised if it's actually the smaller lineups that are struggling with defensive rebounding. Jack and Javin and Zion are much better defensive rebounders than Marques, so as long as any two of those three are on the court together, I would think Duke defensive rebounds better than when Marques is on the court.

I would like Coach K to use this Phase to experiment more with playing the Death Lineup (Jack + 4 frosh). As I've said before, it's going to be such an important lineup for us this season. The ability to switch everything is how you gum up ball-screen heavy continuity offenses.

OPPONENTS DEFENDING DUKE

(TM): Most opponents so far have defended us with a packed-in m2m defense aka a "gapping" defense, as it was referred to by Mark Few and Seth Greenberg. Gonzaga, Army, SDSU, and Indiana all clogged the lanes, and even Auburn (until late in the game) backed off its pressure to gap. Why aren't teams zoning Duke? Well, because Duke has thus far been a great offensive rebounding team (#7 in the nation) and more importantly, because Duke has great passers who can pick apart a zone for dunks at the rim and open threes. When you play m2m, each player keeps his eye on a particular offensive player, making it tougher for that player to sneak in for ORebs or to cut to the basket free. Furthermore, most teams play m2m as their base defense and would prefer to just modify their m2m rather than play their zone, which they don't practice as much.

If teams are going to continue to clog the lanes in m2m, Duke needs to kick out for threes much more than we did against Gonzaga. Against the Zags, it was almost like Duke was overcoached (i.e. it was overemphasized in the game-planning) to take it to the basket to score. We were no longer a team looking for "standstill threes," which had been the preseason buzzword. This needs to be corrected and will be corrected. Duke took only 13 threes against Gonzaga, and I would be surprised if it isn't the last time this season we are under 15 attempts. [To be fair, maybe the idea was that on the 3rd of 3 consecutive days playing, Duke wouldn't be able to make our threes; furthermore, by slamming into Gonzaga defenders repeatedly, we got fouls called on them, got to the FT line a bunch, and overall produced 1.21 points/possession. Was there method to the madness?]

I will live with us losing by missing wide open set shots. At least it's the right basketball play to make if a driver sees a crowd in the lane. Share the ball, make the right basketball play, and live with the results.

(SD): I don’t have much to argue with what you said. I do think this increases the importance of 3-point shooting from Cam and Jack. Those guys have been the beneficiary of a lot of catch and shoot looks so far. Also, Tre is only 6-13 from 3 so far this year. He will probably lead the team in 3 point %, so he needs to shoot it more! Hopefully that comes as he asserts himself more the next few months.

Coach K is also likely to add some offensive sets as the season progresses. Holiday practices and late December games are perfect for those sets to get introduced. We ran a lot of high low and horns last year. I could see Coach K posting up Barrett and Reddish this year given likely size advantages vs their defenders.

Lastly, we are averaging 26 FT attempts per game. That is like averaging 6 yards a carry in football. Keep driving to the rim!

TEAM STRENGTHS

(SD): This is our senior superlatives section.

Here is what I really like so far -

Averaging 25 free throws per game.
More athletic than opponents at pretty much every spot on the floor.
Everyone playing with a high motor.
Breakouts from Marquis Bolden & Jack White.
Tre’s assist to turnover ratio is 41:8.

SCHEDULE

(TM): Texas Tech should not be underestimated. They might be the second-best non-conference team (behind Gonzaga) that we play this regular season, as I suspect we might think of them as better than Auburn by the end of the season. As is, TTU is currently #11 in kenpom, having killed all their competition, including top 25 Nebraska and top 60 USC. They are coached by one of the best young coaches in America in Chris Beard, a Bob Knight disciple like Coach K.

One interesting thing about this TTU game is that we play Princeton two days prior. We have a long history of playing a December game in NY/NJ and I can only find two other instances when Duke scheduled only 1 day's rest before the game. 2001-2 when defending champs Duke beat Kentucky in overtime 95-92. And 2006-7 when we beat Gonzaga 61-54. While victories, both of those games represented so-so performances from Duke on one day's rest. Hopefully we show better against TTU this season.

The rest of the schedule are home games against teams we should beat comfortably (although the level of comfort will range). Hopefully we'll see some experimentation, the emergence of Alex and Javin, and hopefully our guys use the period of less stressful games to kick butt on their schoolwork and finals.

Billy Dat

11-28-2018, 01:20 PM

Thanks for the new Phase post, guys.

Unfortunately, because the competition is so mediocre, I don't see us learning much in this phase, aside from the TT game. Plus, we have freshmen dealing with exams, projects and papers...it's not a great time for growth.

A couple of additions...

-Jay Bilas said that while attending Monday's practice, K was telling Javin something along the lines of, "It's coming!" The meaning was that things are going to start clicking and happening for him soon and that he just has to trust the process.

-I don't think we can talk about, or praise, Tre Jones, enough. He is so eerily like his brother in his ability to run the team and manage the game that it is scary. K praises him to the hilt, Mark Few said he played like he was 30 years old, etc. I have said this already many times but I have unyielding faith in the kid after so few games. Like his brother, he knows when to pass and when to take his own shot. His defense is outstanding and is what allows us to play the overall team defense we've been playing. His court sense is highly, highly developed...watch when he is leading the break...he knows where everyone is and often senses a player filling the lane behind him and he slows his pace looking the defense off the other direction before the lob that Zion or RJ or even Marquese rises to grab and flush. The kid is GOLD. Appreciate him now because aint no way he's back next year, at this rate. Even his brother agrees...

@1Tyus
My boy ready😈🤟🏽@Tre3Jones

jv001

11-28-2018, 02:38 PM

MChambers

11-28-2018, 02:52 PM

Great post! Love reading these.

On the health point, I'm a little concerned about Tre's hip, but I suppose that if he played last night it must not be a serious concern.

-jk

11-28-2018, 06:29 PM

I want to see Zion overcome his cramps and be more mobile on defense, rather than go for high risk attempts at steals that, when successful, lead to thunderous dunks and thunderous crowds! But, when not successful, lead to a couple passes and a wide open shot for whichever "them" we're playing (so long as they're reasonably adept).

-jk

Saratoga2

11-29-2018, 10:24 AM

Team strengths begin with Tre as he has done everything stated in earlier posts. A great young point guard and leader.

Zion has that combination of power, athleticism, skill and drive that make him an incredible weapon. I just hope that he can survive playing like he does for a seasons worth of games.

Jack has shown up to be a larger asset than I expected this year. He is around 6'7" and a solid 235#. He has the strenth and savy to play solid defense and rebound. He also adds scoring potential, especially from the outside.

When I watch RJ, I can see his skills and althletic ability are top flight. He has some things to work on during the next few months. His tendencies to lose focus at times and of attempting to do too much can certainly be improved with coaching.

I wonder about Cam's play. He looks to be 6'9" and athletic with ball handling skills and a good shot from 3. He should be able to get his shot off against most defenders. So far he hasn't demanded the ball and forced teams to overplay him. His tendency to foul is also hurting his time in the game. Lots of improvement areas for him in the coming months. The potential is much higher than the result to date.

I was pleased with Bolden's play, except against Gonzaga where the matchups were unfavorable. One thing I noticed about Bolden and DeLaurier is they receive a pass inside and often seem to want to make a dribble move to gather themselves before going up. A common big man issue that they could overcome.

Goldwire is a good backup PG with a decent handle and ball security. So far, he shows very little offensive capability but his defense is solid.

AOC has the height, length, speed, handle and shooting ability to be doing much more than he has to date. I think it is a confidence issue that keeps him from blossoming further. When he does receive the ball, if a defender is near, he immediately looks to pass back instead of looking to put pressure on the defender by dribbling or looking inside. So far I haven't seen improvement from last year although he has gained 15 pounds so is a little stronger.

Free throw shooting is an area of weakness. All they can do is continue to practice and get better.

CDu

11-29-2018, 10:56 AM

I think figuring out how to get Reddish going and how to get Barrett to play efficiently is going to be key.

With Reddish, he seemingly has all the tools to be an elite scorer, but he just doesn't seem aggressive enough. Right now, it seems like some of the question marks attached to him (too willing to settle for jumpers, to willing to fade to the background) are appearing on this team early in the season. Thankfully, we don't need him to be the go-to guy. But it would be really nice to see his offensive game expand to take some of the burden off Williamson and Barrett. But I think the biggest thing right now for Reddish is availability. He's lost way too many minutes to foul trouble so far this season. And when he's not on the floor, we get a lot less dynamic offensively. Averaging 3 fouls per 23 minutes is not a recipe for success. Hopefully he starts to improve on that in the coming weeks.

With Barrett, he's never really been a truly efficient shooter, even in high school where he relied heavily on drawing fouls for his scoring. His numbers actually look similar to some of his EYBL numbers minus the FTA. It appears he's having some challenges making the transition so far to understanding how to get his shots. Some of that is better competition (bigger, stronger, faster). Some is better preparation (the coaching and scouting is WAY better at the college level than at the high school or AAU level). Some of it is better officiating (college refs are WAY better than high school refs). He's never been a good shooter, and a lot of what made him so successful in high school (driving, scoring in transition, drawing fouls) isn't going to translate as well at the college level. Additionally, he's no longer the hands-down best player on his own team, meaning it doesn't need to be (nor should it be) a matter of him doing everything himself. So he's got to figure that out. This phase probably won't tell us a lot about improvement for him, because the quality of competition takes a big dive in Phase II. But hopefully he starts getting it figured out during December so that we hit the ground running for ACC play. The desire and raw talent is certainly there, but he has to figure out how to harness that and and make better decisions.

Beyond those two guys, I think my main interests are in whether one or both of DeLaurier and Bolden can settle in to being consistent presences on the floor. DeLaurier has the length and athleticism that he should be able to be a game-changing energy player on both ends of the floor. But he's still way too foul prone and his hands on offense are still a problem. If the game slows down for him, his athleticism and size would allow us to really maximize a seamless defensive switching lineup. If that comes to fruition, it would make a huge difference. Bolden is sort of the yin to DeLaurier's yang in that Bolden doesn't have the versatility that DeLaurier has but he can be extremely valuable against teams with size inside. I obviously don't expect the Auburn game everytime out, but it will be nice if he can settle into a ~6 rebound, 2-3 block type of presence for the team. He's technically there in blocks, thanks to the outlier performance against Auburn. But he has had just one game this season with 6+ rebounds (again, the Auburn game). If he can just be a presence each game (not dominant one game, silent the next), that would be a big help too.

I love what Jack White is doing, pretty much maxing out on his game with effort and an adequate shooting touch when open, and he doesn't force anything (meaning he takes only the open shots when available, as evidenced by his 86% 2pt% and 80% of his shots being from 3). I also love what Tre Jones is doing too. Just a super-poised, steady playmaker who seems to always make the right decision on both ends of the floor. He's such a difference maker, and he is showing signs of being able to take and make big shots for us, especially in the mid-range.

loaded question

11-29-2018, 11:13 AM

RJ Barrett- Everyone has said this Duke team will go as far as Tre Jones takes them and I agree but I am starting to believe RJ will make or break this team come March.
If he rebounds and defends like he hunts for his shots then I think we have a shot at winning the big dance. But if he continues to let a bad night shooting the ball effect
the rest of his game I think it will start to negatively effect Cam and Zion.

Javin- If there ever was a metric for basketball instincts Javin would grade out as below average. its so frustrating because it effects the rest of his game to a large degree and he
has high potential with his size and athleticism.

Marques- The kid is the most passive player at Duke since Miles Plumlee. Its kinda why I prefer Stewart over Carey.

DavidBenAkiva

11-29-2018, 11:35 AM

Great tag-team phase post, Superdave and Troublemaker!

A couple of things I am thinking about/wondering:

1) Health of Cam Reddish. Didn't he break a rib earlier this year? I wonder if he is still recovering from that and if it is affecting his core. The other Reddish-related concern I have is about his ability to finish inside the arc. He's getting stuffed at the rim all too often. He moves and looks so much like Jayson Tatum but has not nearly as effective in the half-court.

2) Rim protection. This team is #3 in the nation at the moment in block rate. Bolden has really stepped up as a rim protector and then Zion, Jack, and Javin have all been great in this respect as well. Bolden, in particular, has continued to improve and has shown that he has the lateral movement and length to switch onto guards on the perimeter and still recover. His blocks on Jared Harper during the Aurburn game reminded me of his play against Joel Berry of UNC last season. Berry eventually started floating his shots over Wendell and Marques, but most guards aren't going to do that. And then Zion has been the absolute beast of a weakside defender we hoped/anticipated. His anticipation and understanding of the game is off the charts. And then Jack has really stepped it up. He's so versatile and can defend smaller forwards as well as bigger guards. Javin and R.J. have the size, length, and athleticism to contribute in this area as well.

3) Forcing turnovers. One area where this team can and should improve is forcing turnovers. Cam and Zion have been jumping the passing lanes to create breakawy dunks. That's been all well and good (and fun!) when it works. But it hasn't been working as much as it should. The team is only forcing TO's on 15.7% of opponent plays, which is in the bottom half of the nation. When teams are driving into the lane, I don't see how the team isn't able to swat and swipe at the ball more often.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

11-29-2018, 12:23 PM

I love Tre's court vision and decision making, but his hustle is my favorite. Scrapping for loose balls, and creating chaos makes him easily a favorite for me. He is an old school Duke guard who simply seems to refuse to give up on plays.

Kedsy

11-29-2018, 05:21 PM

Lastly, we are averaging 26 FT attempts per game. That is like averaging 6 yards a carry in football. Keep driving to the rim!

Well, yes, our 25.9 FTs per game is pretty high, 11th-highest Duke performance in the 33-year "advanced stats era" (since 1987). BUT, it's only high because of how fast we play (if our pace stays the same, this year's team will be the 6th fastest Duke team in the last 33 years), so it's really more like averaging 3 yards per carry in a 63-to-57 type football game.

As you can see from the table below, our current team's free throw rate (which takes pace into account) is really the 7th lowest in the advanced stats era. It's worth noting that, while it helps to have a high FT rate (the top four Duke teams since 1987 in this category all made the NCAA title game, including two champions), it's not a requirement for success (the 2001, 2010, and 2015 teams are all in the bottom-third of this list). But having said that, with the slashers we have on this team, we're getting to the line at an unacceptably low rate.

In other words, I think how often we've been getting to the line has been a weakness so far, rather than the strength you guys have portrayed in this phase post.

Year FT rate FTA/gm FG att FT att GP Poss/gm NCAA
1992 50.41% 28.97 2069 1043 36 73.67 1
1990 48.58% 30.61 2394 1163 38 79.34 2
1999 46.86% 29.10 2422 1135 39 75.39 2
1991 45.36% 27.92 2401 1089 39 78.53 1
2003 45.28% 27.18 1981 897 33 72.96 16
2012 45.12% 25.41 1915 864 34 68.16 64
2006 45.00% 25.14 2011 905 36 71.55 16
1989 44.00% 26.47 2166 953 36 78.91 4
1993 42.97% 26.19 1950 838 32 75.01 32
2005 42.87% 24.88 1915 821 33 70.13 16
1998 42.14% 26.67 2278 960 36 73.44 8
2009 41.81% 24.70 2186 914 37 69.61 16
1997 41.33% 24.27 1938 801 33 69.94 32
2004 41.18% 24.05 2161 890 37 69.95 4
2002 41.01% 25.89 2209 906 35 77.19 16
2008 40.88% 25.06 2084 852 34 73.98 32
1994 40.81% 23.44 1953 797 34 70.28 2
2016 40.54% 24.06 2136 866 36 68.29 16
1988 40.11% 24.97 2179 874 35 75.02 4
2015 39.84% 22.38 2191 873 39 65.78 1
2007 39.79% 21.15 1754 698 33 66.38 64
2001 39.60% 25.69 2530 1002 39 76.65 1
2017 39.27% 22.76 2144 842 37 69.59 32
2013 39.15% 22.11 2033 796 36 68.25 8
2014 38.76% 22.37 2020 783 35 65.76 64
2000 38.35% 24.50 2172 833 34 74.82 16
2019 38.19% 25.86 474 181 7 75.57
2010 37.85% 22.48 2375 899 40 66.55 1
1987 37.78% 22.24 1943 734 33 72.71 16
2011 37.44% 22.32 2206 826 37 70.25 16
2018 34.57% 21.38 2288 791 37 70.65 8
1996 33.92% 20.42 1866 633 31 68.98 64
1995 33.05% 19.87 1864 616 31 70.18 n/a

Kedsy

11-29-2018, 05:57 PM

(TM): Not much to add here. I would just say that I'd be surprised if it's actually the smaller lineups that are struggling with defensive rebounding. Jack and Javin and Zion are much better defensive rebounders than Marques, so as long as any two of those three are on the court together, I would think Duke defensive rebounds better than when Marques is on the court.

SilkyJ and I have been having a conversation about Marques's value (or lack thereof) on the defensive boards. He mentioned to me his idea that Marques is a bad defensive rebounder. After reviewing the historical data, my view is (at least so far this season) it's even worse than that. So far this season, Marques Bolden has been a historically poor defensive rebounder for a Duke center.

Below is a listing of every Duke player who played 300 or more minutes, primarily at center (I apologize if I missed someone or listed someone who was primarily a PF -- I did the best I could). Marques's current defensive rebounding percentage of 10.79% is the 2nd-worst in Duke history (or at least since 1987, when they started keeping the defensive rebound stat), ahead of only 2001 Casey Sanders. (Caution: you have to scroll down quite a ways to see this.)

Year Name min OR% DR% Blk% OR DR Blk
2012 Mason Plumlee 964 12.03% 26.53% 5.16% 99 213 55
2013 Mason Plumlee 1248 9.75% 25.06% 4.01% 99 260 52
2012 Miles Plumlee 697 16.63% 24.63% 4.15% 99 143 32
2010 Brian Zoubek 746 21.74% 24.40% 4.04% 143 166 31
2011 Mason Plumlee 949 11.16% 23.84% 5.79% 91 218 62
2006 Shelden Williams 1198 12.44% 23.49% 9.48% 117 267 137
2018 Wendell Carter 997 12.77% 23.15% 7.61% 109 226 76
2010 Miles Plumlee 654 11.27% 22.13% 3.87% 65 132 26
2005 Shelden Williams 1109 13.10% 22.05% 9.19% 127 242 122
2017 Amile Jefferson 1039 9.68% 22.05% 5.86% 84 209 65
2004 Shelden Williams 963 14.79% 22.01% 10.64% 119 195 111
1995 Cherokee Parks 1092 7.37% 21.96% 4.38% 68 221 55
1991 Christian Laettner 1178 11.05% 21.84% 2.98% 105 235 44
1990 Christian Laettner 1135 12.97% 21.71% 2.66% 129 235 41
2017 Harry Giles 300 16.36% 21.56% 5.31% 41 59 17
2014 Amile Jefferson 796 14.98% 21.26% 2.50% 101 139 20
1997 Greg Newton 688 9.59% 20.56% 4.32% 57 127 32
2019 Javin DeLaurier 86 13.02% 20.55% 4.20% 11 19 4
1999 Elton Brand 1141 14.33% 20.48% 6.36% 139 243 86
1987 Marty Nessley 376 11.42% 20.42% 5.51% 35 62 24
2003 Shelden Williams 633 14.83% 19.92% 7.72% 84 111 52
1992 Christian Laettner 1128 9.67% 19.53% 2.33% 82 193 32
2002 Carlos Boozer 993 13.55% 19.49% 1.91% 119 184 21
2007 Josh McRoberts 1164 7.60% 19.42% 6.86% 69 191 82
1989 Christian Laettner 608 11.89% 19.35% 3.77% 58 112 28
2009 Brian Zoubek 427 16.71% 18.96% 6.53% 63 70 29
2016 Marshall Plumlee 1099 12.15% 18.81% 4.93% 119 189 59
2018 Javin DeLaurier 419 15.05% 18.77% 4.53% 54 77 19
1996 Greg Newton 918 13.03% 18.66% 5.04% 106 149 48
2001 Carlos Boozer 820 7.88% 18.64% 2.86% 60 148 28
1994 Cherokee Parks 1038 11.73% 18.45% 6.12% 100 184 76
2003 Casey Sanders 589 14.80% 18.32% 8.62% 78 95 54
2015 Jahlil Okafor 1143 14.80% 18.20% 4.50% 134 188 54
1993 Cherokee Parks 899 8.59% 18.10% 5.57% 65 155 64
2018 Marques Bolden 373 11.90% 18.07% 7.49% 38 66 28
1995 Eric Meek 889 14.65% 17.82% 3.81% 110 146 39
1990 Alaa Abdelnaby 947 10.96% 17.82% 3.73% 91 161 48
1998 Elton Brand 493 16.49% 17.46% 5.15% 76 78 27
2011 Miles Plumlee 628 14.27% 17.19% 2.40% 77 104 17
2009 Kyle Singler 1193 10.63% 16.67% 3.06% 112 172 38
2000 Carlos Boozer 807 11.57% 16.51% 2.34% 81 132 23
1993 Eric Meek 371 10.89% 16.41% 2.11% 34 58 10
1994 Eric Meek 474 17.47% 16.24% 3.35% 68 74 19
1989 Alaa Abdelnaby 531 10.57% 15.82% 2.47% 45 80 16
1999 Chris Burgess 608 10.64% 15.66% 4.86% 55 99 35
2015 Marshall Plumlee 375 13.13% 15.64% 5.59% 39 53 22
1998 Chris Burgess 453 12.04% 15.35% 4.77% 51 63 23
2010 Mason Plumlee 480 9.21% 15.08% 6.08% 39 66 30
1996 Taymon Domzalski 635 12.97% 14.85% 3.49% 73 82 23
2008 Kyle Singler 972 7.83% 14.37% 2.31% 70 128 25
1988 John Smith 534 8.70% 14.24% 0.63% 40 67 4
2004 Shavlik Randolph 709 13.17% 13.80% 7.94% 78 90 61
1988 Alaa Abdelnaby 320 10.53% 13.48% 0.79% 29 38 3
1992 Cherokee Parks 435 9.17% 13.39% 6.62% 30 51 35
1991 Crawford Palmer 407 8.84% 12.91% 3.72% 29 48 19
1987 John Smith 720 7.50% 10.84% 0.96% 44 63 8
2019 Marques Bolden 138 11.81% 10.79% 10.47% 16 16 16
2001 Casey Sanders 373 9.82% 8.03% 7.18% 34 29 32

Now, it must also be said that if Marques keeps his current blocked shot pace, he'll be the 2nd-best shotblocker (from a blocks% basis) in Duke history (again, since 1987). And it is an axiom that great shotblockers often sacrifice defensive rebounds when they go for blocks. But I don't think that's a good enough explanation, since Shelden Williams's at-least-for-now blocks% record was accompanied by a DR% more than twice as high as Marques's current DR%.

And it's also true that Marques wasn't nearly as bad at defensive rebounding in 2017-18, though he wasn't good either (35th on the Duke centers list, out of 58). Finally, clearly it's only a 7-game sample -- though even with that, the only Duke players who've played 5 or more mpg this season with a worse DR% than Marques are our two PGs (Tre and Jordan G).

So I tried but I couldn't think of any explanation other than Marques Bolden has been a really bad defensive rebounder so far this season. Hopefully that will improve, and I'm sure it will, at least a little. But if you're looking for a major improvement in this area, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Kedsy

11-29-2018, 06:55 PM

The rest of the schedule are home games against teams we should beat comfortably (although the level of comfort will range).

It's possible that how "comfortably" we beat these teams does in fact matter. Below is a table of every Coach K team since 1984 and each team's number of blowout wins:

Year 20+ 30+ AP rk NCAAT
1999 24 15 1 2
1998 20 14 3 8
2001 20 12 1 1
2002 18 9 1 16
2010 17 7 3 1
1989 17 7 9 4
2011 13 6 5 16
2004 13 5 6 4
2015 13 5 4 1
2000 12 9 1 16
1990 12 8 15 2
1991 12 7 6 1
2018 12 4 5 8
1988 11 9 5 4
1993 11 7 10 32
1992 11 5 1 1
1986 11 3 1 2
2009 10 5 6 16
2014 10 5 8 64
1997 10 5 8 32
2008 10 4 9 32
2013 10 3 6 8
2006 9 4 1 16
2017 8 6 7 32
1987 8 5 17 16
2016 8 4 19 16
2005 7 6 3 16
2003 7 2 7 16
2007 7 1 unr 64
1985 6 4 10 32
2012 6 3 8 64
1996 6 2 unr 64
1994 6 2 6 2
1995 5 4 unr n/a
1984 3 1 14 32

As you can see, since 1984 Duke has had 17 teams with more than 10 blowout wins (defined here as 20+ point margin). Those 17 Duke teams include 11 of our 12 Final Four teams and 13 of our 15 Elite Eight (or better) teams (the only exceptions being 1994 and 2013). Only four Duke teams in the period had more than 10 blowout wins and didn't at least make the Elite Eight (and those four include the 2002 and 2011 teams that absolutely should have gone further).

Obviously, a large chunk of those blowout wins happen in November and December. Here's a table of how the last 20 Duke teams fared in this aspect (sorted by percentage of blowout games):

Year gms 20+ % NCAA
1999 13 9 69.2% 2
2001 12 8 66.7% 1
2010 12 8 66.7% 1
2011 12 8 66.7% 16
2005 8* 5 62.5% 16
2004 10 6 60.0% 4
2008 12* 7 58.3% 32
2009 12 7 58.3% 16
2016 13 7 53.8% 16
2002 12* 6 50.0% 16
2003 8* 4 50.0% 16
2015 12 6 50.0% 1
2006 13 6 46.2% 16
2000 11* 5 45.5% 16
2017 14 6 42.9% 32
2013 13* 5 38.5% 8
2014 13 5 38.5% 64
2018 14 5 35.7% 8
2007 13 4 30.8% 64
2012 13* 4 30.8% 64

* - includes a game against non-conference teams in the few days immediately after New Year's.

This year's team has had 5 blowout wins in 7 games (71.4%). If we have four more blowouts in our remaining five December games, that would give us 9 blowout wins in 12 games, which would be the best percentage (75.0%) for a Duke team in at least the past 20 years. Plus it would mean we'd only need two additional blowout wins after January 1 to join the better-than-10 club.

Maybe it's a small sample and means nothing. Could be it's as simple as really good teams win games by a lot of points. But possibly this statistic shows which teams know how to keep their feet on the accelerator and thus are less susceptible to close losses in pressure situations. Either way, I thought it would be a fun stat to bring up.

Kedsy

11-29-2018, 07:53 PM

Also, nice Phase post, guys. I enjoyed reading it.

whereinthehellami

11-30-2018, 08:34 AM

I would like to see Jack and Alex use more pass and shot fakes. They both tend to pass the ball quickly upon receiving it, and the defense is aware of this and prone to leaving them quickly. Jack in particular has a slow shot and needs a fair amount of room to get it off. A quick pass fake might buy him some space/time to take a shot. I like how Jack has driven the baseline a few times and converted thru contact at the rim. He has really surprised the defense when doing this and has been quite effective.

Neals384

12-01-2018, 04:47 PM

I would love to see RJ add a floater to his repertoire. That would be a great counter to defenders who wait for him at the hoop.

I would love to see Zion work on a soft block that keeps the ball in bounds rather than in the 3rd row of seats.

Kedsy

12-02-2018, 01:03 AM

SilkyJ and I have been having a conversation about Marques's value (or lack thereof) on the defensive boards. He mentioned to me his idea that Marques is a bad defensive rebounder. After reviewing the historical data, my view is (at least so far this season) it's even worse than that. So far this season, Marques Bolden has been a historically poor defensive rebounder for a Duke center.

Below is a listing of every Duke player who played 300 or more minutes, primarily at center (I apologize if I missed someone or listed someone who was primarily a PF -- I did the best I could). Marques's current defensive rebounding percentage of 10.79% is the 2nd-worst in Duke history (or at least since 1987, when they started keeping the defensive rebound stat), ahead of only 2001 Casey Sanders. (Caution: you have to scroll down quite a ways to see this.)

Year Name min OR% DR% Blk% OR DR Blk
2012 Mason Plumlee 964 12.03% 26.53% 5.16% 99 213 55
2013 Mason Plumlee 1248 9.75% 25.06% 4.01% 99 260 52
2012 Miles Plumlee 697 16.63% 24.63% 4.15% 99 143 32
2010 Brian Zoubek 746 21.74% 24.40% 4.04% 143 166 31
2011 Mason Plumlee 949 11.16% 23.84% 5.79% 91 218 62
2006 Shelden Williams 1198 12.44% 23.49% 9.48% 117 267 137
2018 Wendell Carter 997 12.77% 23.15% 7.61% 109 226 76
2010 Miles Plumlee 654 11.27% 22.13% 3.87% 65 132 26
2005 Shelden Williams 1109 13.10% 22.05% 9.19% 127 242 122
2017 Amile Jefferson 1039 9.68% 22.05% 5.86% 84 209 65
2004 Shelden Williams 963 14.79% 22.01% 10.64% 119 195 111
1995 Cherokee Parks 1092 7.37% 21.96% 4.38% 68 221 55
1991 Christian Laettner 1178 11.05% 21.84% 2.98% 105 235 44
1990 Christian Laettner 1135 12.97% 21.71% 2.66% 129 235 41
2017 Harry Giles 300 16.36% 21.56% 5.31% 41 59 17
2014 Amile Jefferson 796 14.98% 21.26% 2.50% 101 139 20
1997 Greg Newton 688 9.59% 20.56% 4.32% 57 127 32
2019 Javin DeLaurier 86 13.02% 20.55% 4.20% 11 19 4
1999 Elton Brand 1141 14.33% 20.48% 6.36% 139 243 86
1987 Marty Nessley 376 11.42% 20.42% 5.51% 35 62 24
2003 Shelden Williams 633 14.83% 19.92% 7.72% 84 111 52
1992 Christian Laettner 1128 9.67% 19.53% 2.33% 82 193 32
2002 Carlos Boozer 993 13.55% 19.49% 1.91% 119 184 21
2007 Josh McRoberts 1164 7.60% 19.42% 6.86% 69 191 82
1989 Christian Laettner 608 11.89% 19.35% 3.77% 58 112 28
2009 Brian Zoubek 427 16.71% 18.96% 6.53% 63 70 29
2016 Marshall Plumlee 1099 12.15% 18.81% 4.93% 119 189 59
2018 Javin DeLaurier 419 15.05% 18.77% 4.53% 54 77 19
1996 Greg Newton 918 13.03% 18.66% 5.04% 106 149 48
2001 Carlos Boozer 820 7.88% 18.64% 2.86% 60 148 28
1994 Cherokee Parks 1038 11.73% 18.45% 6.12% 100 184 76
2003 Casey Sanders 589 14.80% 18.32% 8.62% 78 95 54
2015 Jahlil Okafor 1143 14.80% 18.20% 4.50% 134 188 54
1993 Cherokee Parks 899 8.59% 18.10% 5.57% 65 155 64
2018 Marques Bolden 373 11.90% 18.07% 7.49% 38 66 28
1995 Eric Meek 889 14.65% 17.82% 3.81% 110 146 39
1990 Alaa Abdelnaby 947 10.96% 17.82% 3.73% 91 161 48
1998 Elton Brand 493 16.49% 17.46% 5.15% 76 78 27
2011 Miles Plumlee 628 14.27% 17.19% 2.40% 77 104 17
2009 Kyle Singler 1193 10.63% 16.67% 3.06% 112 172 38
2000 Carlos Boozer 807 11.57% 16.51% 2.34% 81 132 23
1993 Eric Meek 371 10.89% 16.41% 2.11% 34 58 10
1994 Eric Meek 474 17.47% 16.24% 3.35% 68 74 19
1989 Alaa Abdelnaby 531 10.57% 15.82% 2.47% 45 80 16
1999 Chris Burgess 608 10.64% 15.66% 4.86% 55 99 35
2015 Marshall Plumlee 375 13.13% 15.64% 5.59% 39 53 22
1998 Chris Burgess 453 12.04% 15.35% 4.77% 51 63 23
2010 Mason Plumlee 480 9.21% 15.08% 6.08% 39 66 30
1996 Taymon Domzalski 635 12.97% 14.85% 3.49% 73 82 23
2008 Kyle Singler 972 7.83% 14.37% 2.31% 70 128 25
1988 John Smith 534 8.70% 14.24% 0.63% 40 67 4
2004 Shavlik Randolph 709 13.17% 13.80% 7.94% 78 90 61
1988 Alaa Abdelnaby 320 10.53% 13.48% 0.79% 29 38 3
1992 Cherokee Parks 435 9.17% 13.39% 6.62% 30 51 35
1991 Crawford Palmer 407 8.84% 12.91% 3.72% 29 48 19
1987 John Smith 720 7.50% 10.84% 0.96% 44 63 8
2019 Marques Bolden 138 11.81% 10.79% 10.47% 16 16 16
2001 Casey Sanders 373 9.82% 8.03% 7.18% 34 29 32

Now, it must also be said that if Marques keeps his current blocked shot pace, he'll be the 2nd-best shotblocker (from a blocks% basis) in Duke history (again, since 1987). And it is an axiom that great shotblockers often sacrifice defensive rebounds when they go for blocks. But I don't think that's a good enough explanation, since Shelden Williams's at-least-for-now blocks% record was accompanied by a DR% more than twice as high as Marques's current DR%.

And it's also true that Marques wasn't nearly as bad at defensive rebounding in 2017-18, though he wasn't good either (35th on the Duke centers list, out of 58). Finally, clearly it's only a 7-game sample -- though even with that, the only Duke players who've played 5 or more mpg this season with a worse DR% than Marques are our two PGs (Tre and Jordan G).

So I tried but I couldn't think of any explanation other than Marques Bolden has been a really bad defensive rebounder so far this season. Hopefully that will improve, and I'm sure it will, at least a little. But if you're looking for a major improvement in this area, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Tonight, Marques had one (1) defensive rebound in 20 minutes of play. Against Stetson.

That's the second straight game where he's had just one defensive rebound in 20+ minutes. When we start playing good teams, this is going to become an issue if Marques continues to start and get starter's minutes.

Clipsfan

12-02-2018, 12:52 PM

Tonight, Marques had one (1) defensive rebound in 20 minutes of play. Against Stetson.

That's the second straight game where he's had just one defensive rebound in 20+ minutes. When we start playing good teams, this is going to become an issue if Marques continues to start and get starter's minutes.

Is Marques just out of position going for blocks or is he boxing out and leaving the boards for others? I don't have the stats to answer this question and wasn't watching the game with this in mind.

Not saying that Marques is doing this, but no one complains that Steven Adams doesn't get more defensive boards even though his % is well below expectations based on size and ability. He just lets Westbrook grab them all.

Kedsy

12-02-2018, 01:56 PM

Is Marques just out of position going for blocks or is he boxing out and leaving the boards for others? I don't have the stats to answer this question and wasn't watching the game with this in mind.

Not saying that Marques is doing this, but no one complains that Steven Adams doesn't get more defensive boards even though his % is well below expectations based on size and ability. He just lets Westbrook grab them all.

I don't know that there are any stats for boxing out, but Duke is tied for 300th in the country in defensive rebounding pct, so if Marques is trying to let other people get the rebounds, it's not working.

Also, we're not talking about merely being below expectations here. If expectations are the planet's surface we're talking about the Earth's molten core. Marques's defensive rebounding pct is currently 9.9%, the 2nd-worst for a center in Duke history. For comparison's sake, Jordan Goldwire, our 6'2" (on a tall day) backup point guard, has a DR% of 8.8%. Every other Duke player who's played 5+ mpg this season is better on the d-boards than Marques except Jordan and Tre Jones (7.9%). If he's going to play center for nearly 20 mpg, Marques needs to improve.

WillJ

12-02-2018, 03:43 PM

Javin- If there ever was a metric for basketball instincts Javin would grade out as below average. its so frustrating because it effects the rest of his game to a large degree and he
has high potential with his size and athleticism.
.

This is spot-on. Even a marginally better Javin would be very helpful to the team.....let's hope he gets there.

HereBeforeCoachK

12-02-2018, 07:47 PM

I don't know that there are any stats for boxing out, but Duke is tied for 300th in the country in defensive rebounding pct,e.

WHAT??? Are you serious?

MChambers

12-02-2018, 08:03 PM

WHAT??? Are you serious?

#273 in T-rank:

http://www.barttorvik.com/#

But #3 in offensive rebounding.

HereBeforeCoachK

12-02-2018, 08:21 PM

#273 in T-rank:

http://www.barttorvik.com/#

But #3 in offensive rebounding.

Well, that's fascinating. Must be greatly impacted by all the time our subs have been in the routs. Also, does it measure rebounds per shot, or per possession, of the opponent?

MChambers

12-02-2018, 08:57 PM

Well, that's fascinating. Must be greatly impacted by all the time our subs have been in the routs. Also, does it measure rebounds per shot, or per possession, of the opponent?

Yes, having the subs in definitely affects things a lot, especially in games like the one yesterday. Rebounding percentage uses total rebounds as the denominator, so essentially it is per shot. Some very good Duke teams have done relatively poorly in this statistic, although perhaps not as poorly as this team is doing.

CDu

12-02-2018, 08:58 PM

Well, that's fascinating. Must be greatly impacted by all the time our subs have been in the routs. Also, does it measure rebounds per shot, or per possession, of the opponent?

Per rebounding opportunity. In other words, per missed shot. Rebound % is, quite literally, the percentage of rebounds you get as opposed to the opposition on that end of the floor.

HereBeforeCoachK

12-03-2018, 10:40 AM

Per rebounding opportunity. In other words, per missed shot. Rebound % is, quite literally, the percentage of rebounds you get as opposed to the opposition on that end of the floor.

Thanks for that clarification, and that was my assumption.....except Duke's ranking in that didn't make any sense.........thus my question. :o

Kedsy

12-03-2018, 11:41 AM

Thanks for that clarification, and that was my assumption...except Duke's ranking in that didn't make any sense...

Well, if your starting center grabs fewer than 10% of available defensive rebounds, it makes plenty of sense. If Marques had a DR% of 19.8% instead of 9.9% (which still isn't great for a center but would be decent -- 23rd out of 58 Duke centers/backup centers since 1987), the team DR% would be 73.2% (up from 68.3%) and would rank tied for 138th in the country instead of tied for 300th.

That's assuming his extra rebounds would be taken away from our opponents and not taken away from a teammate, which is probably not an entirely accurate assumption. It's also worth noting, as MChambers alluded, that Duke historically has often been a bad defensive rebounding team (presumably due to Coach K's defensive system). Here are Duke's DR% ranking (unadjusted), over the most recent 10 seasons (including this season):

2019: 300
2018: 241
2017: 209
2016: 329
2015: 141
2014: 161
2013: 165
2012: 150
2011: 226
2010: 168

HereBeforeCoachK

12-03-2018, 05:07 PM

Well, if your starting center grabs fewer than 10% of available defensive rebounds, it makes plenty of sense. If Marques had a DR% of 19.8% instead of 9.9% (which still isn't great for a center but would be decent -- 23rd out of 58 Duke centers/backup centers since 1987), the team DR% would be 73.2% (up from 68.3%) and would rank tied for 138th in the country instead of tied for 300th.

That's assuming his extra rebounds would be taken away from our opponents and not taken away from a teammate, which is probably not an entirely accurate assumption. It's also worth noting, as MChambers alluded, that Duke historically has often been a bad defensive rebounding team (presumably due to Coach K's defensive system). Here are Duke's DR% ranking (unadjusted), over the most recent 10 seasons (including this season):

Yes, they've been historically weak on D rebounding - and it's been noticeable to me watching these teams. That's why this surprises me, because watching this team it has NOT been noticeable to me at all. I don't watch every minute of every game, and I'm assuming a lot of this weakness is in garbage time. I get what you're saying about Marques, a valid point, but Jack and Zion are terrific rebounders, and Javin is too when his hands are working.

Neals384

12-03-2018, 05:51 PM

Well, if your starting center grabs fewer than 10% of available defensive rebounds, it makes plenty of sense. If Marques had a DR% of 19.8% instead of 9.9% (which still isn't great for a center but would be decent -- 23rd out of 58 Duke centers/backup centers since 1987), the team DR% would be 73.2% (up from 68.3%) and would rank tied for 138th in the country instead of tied for 300th.

That's assuming his extra rebounds would be taken away from our opponents and not taken away from a teammate, which is probably not an entirely accurate assumption. It's also worth noting, as MChambers alluded, that Duke historically has often been a bad defensive rebounding team (presumably due to Coach K's defensive system). Here are Duke's DR% ranking (unadjusted), over the most recent 10 seasons (including this season):

2019: 300
2018: 241
2017: 209
2016: 329
2015: 141
2014: 161
2013: 165
2012: 150
2011: 226
2010: 168

So if we could improve to somewhere between #141 and #168 we should be ok.

CDu

12-03-2018, 06:10 PM

So if we could improve to somewhere between #141 and #168 we should be ok.

Well, maybe. See 2012 and 2014...

superdave

12-04-2018, 09:28 AM

The stats definitely tell a different story than what I was thinking. It feels like we have gotten some opponents into foul trouble early.

This should be a strength for us, so hope it improves. I wonder if it improves with more half court games?

Additionally, is our efficiency on offense (dunks) at the expense of free throw rate?

Well, yes, our 25.9 FTs per game is pretty high, 11th-highest Duke performance in the 33-year "advanced stats era" (since 1987). BUT, it's only high because of how fast we play (if our pace stays the same, this year's team will be the 6th fastest Duke team in the last 33 years), so it's really more like averaging 3 yards per carry in a 63-to-57 type football game.

As you can see from the table below, our current team's free throw rate (which takes pace into account) is really the 7th lowest in the advanced stats era. It's worth noting that, while it helps to have a high FT rate (the top four Duke teams since 1987 in this category all made the NCAA title game, including two champions), it's not a requirement for success (the 2001, 2010, and 2015 teams are all in the bottom-third of this list). But having said that, with the slashers we have on this team, we're getting to the line at an unacceptably low rate.

In other words, I think how often we've been getting to the line has been a weakness so far, rather than the strength you guys have portrayed in this phase post.

Year FT rate FTA/gm FG att FT att GP Poss/gm NCAA
1992 50.41% 28.97 2069 1043 36 73.67 1
1990 48.58% 30.61 2394 1163 38 79.34 2
1999 46.86% 29.10 2422 1135 39 75.39 2
1991 45.36% 27.92 2401 1089 39 78.53 1
2003 45.28% 27.18 1981 897 33 72.96 16
2012 45.12% 25.41 1915 864 34 68.16 64
2006 45.00% 25.14 2011 905 36 71.55 16
1989 44.00% 26.47 2166 953 36 78.91 4
1993 42.97% 26.19 1950 838 32 75.01 32
2005 42.87% 24.88 1915 821 33 70.13 16
1998 42.14% 26.67 2278 960 36 73.44 8
2009 41.81% 24.70 2186 914 37 69.61 16
1997 41.33% 24.27 1938 801 33 69.94 32
2004 41.18% 24.05 2161 890 37 69.95 4
2002 41.01% 25.89 2209 906 35 77.19 16
2008 40.88% 25.06 2084 852 34 73.98 32
1994 40.81% 23.44 1953 797 34 70.28 2
2016 40.54% 24.06 2136 866 36 68.29 16
1988 40.11% 24.97 2179 874 35 75.02 4
2015 39.84% 22.38 2191 873 39 65.78 1
2007 39.79% 21.15 1754 698 33 66.38 64
2001 39.60% 25.69 2530 1002 39 76.65 1
2017 39.27% 22.76 2144 842 37 69.59 32
2013 39.15% 22.11 2033 796 36 68.25 8
2014 38.76% 22.37 2020 783 35 65.76 64
2000 38.35% 24.50 2172 833 34 74.82 16
2019 38.19% 25.86 474 181 7 75.57
2010 37.85% 22.48 2375 899 40 66.55 1
1987 37.78% 22.24 1943 734 33 72.71 16
2011 37.44% 22.32 2206 826 37 70.25 16
2018 34.57% 21.38 2288 791 37 70.65 8
1996 33.92% 20.42 1866 633 31 68.98 64
1995 33.05% 19.87 1864 616 31 70.18 n/a

Kedsy

12-04-2018, 02:17 PM

The stats definitely tell a different story than what I was thinking. It feels like we have gotten some opponents into foul trouble early.

This should be a strength for us, so hope it improves. I wonder if it improves with more half court games?

Additionally, is our efficiency on offense (dunks) at the expense of free throw rate?

I don't know that dunks per se have an effect on our free throw rate, but maybe the number of fast break points we get? This season so far, 25.7% of our points have come on fast breaks. I don't have reliable historical data on fast break points, but over 25% feels pretty high. And you'd think there'd be fewer fouls on fast break opportunities, right?

So I looked up a couple imperfect metrics that might shed some light on this. First, we've only had two games in which fewer than 22% of our points came on fast breaks (Gonzaga and Army, both around 16%). Presumably those were our closest to "half court games." In those two games, our free throw rates were 36.1% and 18.1% -- both below average and one (Army) way below average. Which would suggest (albeit in an extremely low sample size) that we are not getting fouled at a higher rate in half court games.

Second, since 1987 Duke has had 13 teams with more than 73 possessions per game; our fastest teams, which presumably had the most fast break points. Of those 13 teams, this year's team has the lowest free throw rate. By a fair amount.

FASTEST DUKE TEAMS

Year FT rate FTA/gm FG att FT att GP Poss/gm NCAA
1992 50.41% 28.97 2069 1043 36 73.67 1
1990 48.58% 30.61 2394 1163 38 79.34 2
1999 46.86% 29.1 2422 1135 39 75.39 2
1991 45.36% 27.92 2401 1089 39 78.53 1
1989 44.00% 26.47 2166 953 36 78.91 4
1993 42.97% 26.19 1950 838 32 75.01 32
1998 42.14% 26.67 2278 960 36 73.44 8
2002 41.01% 25.89 2209 906 35 77.19 16
2008 40.88% 25.06 2084 852 34 73.98 32
1988 40.11% 24.97 2179 874 35 75.02 4
2001 39.60% 25.69 2530 1002 39 76.65 1
2000 38.35% 24.5 2172 833 34 74.82 16
2019 36.05% 24.88 552 199 8 76.57

So I'm forced to confirm my original conclusion: this team doesn't get to the line as often as it should.

cato

12-04-2018, 02:24 PM

I don't know that dunks per se have an effect on our free throw rate, but maybe the number of fast break points we get? This season so far, 25.7% of our points have come on fast breaks. I don't have reliable historical data on fast break points, but over 25% feels pretty high. And you'd think there'd be fewer fouls on fast break opportunities, right?

So I looked up a couple imperfect metrics that might shed some light on this. First, we've only had two games in which fewer than 22% of our points came on fast breaks (Gonzaga and Army, both around 16%). Presumably those were our closest to "half court games." In those two games, our free throw rates were 36.1% and 18.1% -- both below average and one (Army) way below average. Which would suggest (albeit in an extremely low sample size) that we are not getting fouled at a higher rate in half court games.

Second, since 1987 Duke has had 13 teams with more than 73 possessions per game; our fastest teams, which presumably had the most fast break points. Of those 13 teams, this year's team has the lowest free throw rate. By a fair amount.

FASTEST DUKE TEAMS

Year FT rate FTA/gm FG att FT att GP Poss/gm NCAA
1992 50.41% 28.97 2069 1043 36 73.67 1
1990 48.58% 30.61 2394 1163 38 79.34 2
1999 46.86% 29.1 2422 1135 39 75.39 2
1991 45.36% 27.92 2401 1089 39 78.53 1
1989 44.00% 26.47 2166 953 36 78.91 4
1993 42.97% 26.19 1950 838 32 75.01 32
1998 42.14% 26.67 2278 960 36 73.44 8
2002 41.01% 25.89 2209 906 35 77.19 16
2008 40.88% 25.06 2084 852 34 73.98 32
1988 40.11% 24.97 2179 874 35 75.02 4
2001 39.60% 25.69 2530 1002 39 76.65 1
2000 38.35% 24.5 2172 833 34 74.82 16
2019 36.05% 24.88 552 199 8 76.57

So I'm forced to confirm my original conclusion: this team doesn't get to the line as often as it should.

To what extent is free throw rate affected by margin of victory? Duke has only played one game so far where the other team has been in position to foul Duke at the end of regulation. Gonzaga was clinging to a lead and Kentucky et al just wanted to get the beating over with.

Kedsy

12-04-2018, 03:57 PM

To what extent is free throw rate affected by margin of victory? Duke has only played one game so far where the other team has been in position to foul Duke at the end of regulation. Gonzaga was clinging to a lead and Kentucky et al just wanted to get the beating over with.

Interesting question. That makes sense. When you play the end game with a small lead, the opponent will foul more. To wit, the only game we've played that meets that description (Auburn) was our highest FT rate, and the 2nd closest game like that (Indiana) is our 3rd highest FT rate.

Game margin FTR
UK 34 36.7%
Army 22 18.1%
EMU 38 20.8%
SD St 26 59.6%
Auburn 6 63.0%
Gonzaga -2 36.1%
Indiana 11 46.0%
Stetson 64 23.1%

So, I went back to the data. Through 8 games, the current team has Duke's highest margin of victory since at least 1987 -- though of course it does because it's the only team since 1987 that hasn't played any ACC or tournament games. Still, 16 Duke teams since 1987 have had average margins of victory of more than 14 ppg. Of those, the current team's FT rate is the 2nd-lowest, ahead of only last year's team.

Year FT rate FTA/gm FG att FT att GP Poss/gm Margin NCAA
1992 50.41% 28.97 2069 1043 36 73.67 15.33 1
1999 46.86% 29.1 2422 1135 39 75.39 24.67 2
1991 45.36% 27.92 2401 1089 39 78.53 14.28 1
1989 44.00% 26.47 2166 953 36 78.91 16.75 4
1993 42.97% 26.19 1950 838 32 75.01 15.22 32
1998 42.14% 26.67 2278 960 36 73.44 21.5 8
2004 41.18% 24.05 2161 890 37 69.95 14.81 4
2002 41.01% 25.89 2209 906 35 77.19 19.74 16
1988 40.11% 24.97 2179 874 35 75.02 14.94 4
2015 39.84% 22.38 2191 873 39 65.78 15.1 1
2001 39.60% 25.69 2530 1002 39 76.65 20.21 1
2000 38.35% 24.5 2172 833 34 74.82 16.68 16
2010 37.85% 22.48 2375 899 40 66.55 15.95 1
2011 37.44% 22.32 2206 826 37 70.25 16.19 16
2019 36.05% 24.88 552 199 8 76.57 26.13
2018 34.57% 21.38 2288 791 37 70.65 14.73 8

Duke teams with the five highest average margin (including this year's team) were 1999 (3rd-highest FT rate in the 33 years since 1987); 1998 (11th of 33); 2001 (22nd of 33); 2002 (15th of 33); and this year (30th of 33).

So I looked at those five teams, all through their first 8 games:

Year FT rate season FTR FTA/gm FG att FT att GP Margin season margin
1999 52.18% 46.86% 31.38 481 251 8 24.13 24.67
1998 42.61% 42.14% 27.38 514 219 8 35.63 21.50
2002 40.15% 41.01% 26.00 518 208 8 20.00 19.74
2001 40.00% 39.60% 25.00 500 200 8 23.63 20.21
2019 36.05% ? 24.88 552 199 8 26.13 ?

I know, it's only five teams, but I just don't feel like collecting any more 8-game data. Looking at those five teams I notice (a) season FT rate varied very little from the FT rate in the first eight games (the only one of the four cases that varied by more than 1 percentage point was due to an amazing opening game of 1998-99 when we took 54 free throws against only 54 shots -- if you take that game away, the 1999 team had a 46.14% FT rate in games #2 to #8 vs. 46.86% for the season); season margin also didn't vary so much for three of the four other teams (the exception being 1998, possibly due to Elton Brand's two-month injury); and (c) this year's team still has by far the worst FT rate.

So, I guess we'll see. Maybe our FT rate will go up as we slog through league play, though the limited data I collected doesn't support that. For now it looks like we just don't get to the line so much.

English

12-04-2018, 04:28 PM

Kedsy

12-04-2018, 04:38 PM

I recognize that FTs play a large role in team offensive efficiency (and, of course, getting the other team in foul trouble), but FT shooting strikes me as one of this team's most glaring weaknesses. I've mentioned it before as something, in addition to our own foul trouble, that I'm keeping an eye on as the season rolls along. All that to say, if our players--RJ and Zion in particular, but also Marques and Tre--don't decide a lot of games from the charity stripe, I won't be too disappointed.

A good point. Nationally, we currently rank tied for 290th in FT%. If this year's team doesn't improve from the line, we will have Duke's worst FT% in at least the past 33 years. By a lot.

So maybe it's not so bad that we don't get to the line very much.

Year FT% NCAA
1990 76.35% 2
2017 76.25% 32
2006 76.13% 16
2010 75.86% 1
2011 75.30% 16
1992 74.78% 1
2000 74.19% 16
2013 73.87% 8
2004 73.60% 4
2014 72.92% 64
1991 72.64% 1
2016 72.29% 16
1993 72.08% 32
2009 71.99% 16
1988 71.85% 4
2005 71.25% 16
2003 71.24% 16
1994 71.14% 2
2018 71.05% 8
1987 70.98% 16
1999 70.48% 2
1996 70.30% 64
2012 70.14% 64
1997 70.04% 32
2015 69.87% 1
2008 69.72% 32
2001 69.56% 1
2002 68.98% 16
2007 68.91% 64
1989 67.47% 4
1998 67.40% 8
1995 67.05% n/a
2019 64.82% ?

Though, for what it's worth, so far this season we've made:

1.30 points for every pair of free throw attempts we've taken;
1.16 points for every two-point attempt we've taken; and
1.08 points for every three-point attempt we've taken.

Kedsy

12-04-2018, 05:03 PM

Though, for what it's worth, so far this season we've made:

1.30 points for every pair of free throw attempts we've taken;
1.16 points for every two-point attempt we've taken; and
1.08 points for every three-point attempt we've taken.

Though the free throw number above might be a little worse on a possession basis because it doesn't take missed front-ends into account. No way to know how many of those we've missed in order to get a true per possession calculation.

However, when calculating possessions, the rule of thumb with college stats is to multiply FTA by 0.475 to estimate FT possessions (to roughly take into account missed front-ends and and-ones). Using that method, our points-per-FT-possession is 1.37 points per possession, even further ahead of our points-per-two-point-possession (still 1.16) and points per three-point-shot-possession (still 1.08). Though this is still misleading because we don't know what percentage of offensive rebounds come on 2PAs vs. 3PAs vs. FTAs (and we also don't know how many ORs lead to points on each "type" of offensive rebound). And of course, "and ones" should probably count for the type of the original attempt, which would boost two-point efficiency (and three-point efficiency by a much smaller amount).

It seems like a mess, doesn't it? Sorry I even bothered to include these numbers in my earlier post.

BandAlum83

12-04-2018, 05:16 PM

Interesting question. That makes sense. When you play the end game with a small lead, the opponent will foul more. To wit, the only game we've played that meets that description (Auburn) was our highest FT rate, and the 2nd closest game like that (Indiana) is our 3rd highest FT rate.

Game margin FTR
UK 34 36.7%
Army 22 18.1%
EMU 38 20.8%
SD St 26 59.6%
Auburn 6 63.0%
Gonzaga -2 36.1%
Indiana 11 46.0%
Stetson 64 23.1%

So, I went back to the data. Through 8 games, the current team has Duke's highest margin of victory since at least 1987 -- though of course it does because it's the only team since 1987 that hasn't played any ACC or tournament games. Still, 16 Duke teams since 1987 have had average margins of victory of more than 14 ppg. Of those, the current team's FT rate is the 2nd-lowest, ahead of only last year's team.

Year FT rate FTA/gm FG att FT att GP Poss/gm Margin NCAA
1992 50.41% 28.97 2069 1043 36 73.67 15.33 1
1999 46.86% 29.1 2422 1135 39 75.39 24.67 2
1991 45.36% 27.92 2401 1089 39 78.53 14.28 1
1989 44.00% 26.47 2166 953 36 78.91 16.75 4
1993 42.97% 26.19 1950 838 32 75.01 15.22 32
1998 42.14% 26.67 2278 960 36 73.44 21.5 8
2004 41.18% 24.05 2161 890 37 69.95 14.81 4
2002 41.01% 25.89 2209 906 35 77.19 19.74 16
1988 40.11% 24.97 2179 874 35 75.02 14.94 4
2015 39.84% 22.38 2191 873 39 65.78 15.1 1
2001 39.60% 25.69 2530 1002 39 76.65 20.21 1
2000 38.35% 24.5 2172 833 34 74.82 16.68 16
2010 37.85% 22.48 2375 899 40 66.55 15.95 1
2011 37.44% 22.32 2206 826 37 70.25 16.19 16
2019 36.05% 24.88 552 199 8 76.57 26.13
2018 34.57% 21.38 2288 791 37 70.65 14.73 8

Duke teams with the five highest average margin (including this year's team) were 1999 (3rd-highest FT rate in the 33 years since 1987); 1998 (11th of 33); 2001 (22nd of 33); 2002 (15th of 33); and this year (30th of 33).

So I looked at those five teams, all through their first 8 games:

Year FT rate season FTR FTA/gm FG att FT att GP Margin season margin
1999 52.18% 46.86% 31.38 481 251 8 24.13 24.67
1998 42.61% 42.14% 27.38 514 219 8 35.63 21.50
2002 40.15% 41.01% 26.00 518 208 8 20.00 19.74
2001 40.00% 39.60% 25.00 500 200 8 23.63 20.21
2019 36.05% ? 24.88 552 199 8 26.13 ?

I know, it's only five teams, but I just don't feel like collecting any more 8-game data. Looking at those five teams I notice (a) season FT rate varied very little from the FT rate in the first eight games (the only one of the four cases that varied by more than 1 percentage point was due to an amazing opening game of 1998-99 when we took 54 free throws against only 54 shots -- if you take that game away, the 1999 team had a 46.14% FT rate in games #2 to #8 vs. 46.86% for the season); season margin also didn't vary so much for three of the four other teams (the exception being 1998, possibly due to Elton Brand's two-month injury); and (c) this year's team still has by far the worst FT rate.

So, I guess we'll see. Maybe our FT rate will go up as we slog through league play, though the limited data I collected doesn't support that. For now it looks like we just don't get to the line so much.

So I'll wade into this discussion with an observation I've made on another thread at some point.

Eye test only, I think Zion (and to a lesser extent, RJ), are having some fraction of the fouls on them actually called. They are both so good at finishing through contact, sometimes the contact just seems incidental. Zion in particular is such a load that defenders seem to just bounce off of him, making it seem like he is just breezing through. I swear that the officials are just so gobsmacked at what they are seeing that they either don't even see the foul, or simply forget o blow the gosh-darn whistle!

I don't how we can really measure that, other than to say for so many shots taken inside the paint, they sure don't get to the line as much as we would think.

Thinking more on this, RJ is such a Gumby out there, is it possible he simply avoids a lot of contact? (Given his FT completion %, that's probably a good thing).

BandAlum83

12-04-2018, 05:18 PM

Though the free throw number above might be a little worse on a possession basis because it doesn't take missed front-ends into account. No way to know how many of those we've missed in order to get a true per possession calculation.

However, when calculating possessions, the rule of thumb with college stats is to multiply FTA by 0.475 to estimate FT possessions (to roughly take into account missed front-ends and and-ones). Using that method, our points-per-FT-possession is 1.37 points per possession, even further ahead of our points-per-two-point-possession (still 1.16) and points per three-point-shot-possession (still 1.08). Though this is still misleading because we don't know what percentage of offensive rebounds come on 2PAs vs. 3PAs vs. FTAs (and we also don't know how many ORs lead to points on each "type" of offensive rebound). And of course, "and ones" should probably count for the type of the original attempt, which would boost two-point efficiency (and three-point efficiency by a much smaller amount).

It seems like a mess, doesn't it? Sorry I even bothered to include these numbers in my earlier post.

I might be willing to bet a pie that we end up the season at or above 70%, which all-in-all wouldn't be a bad percentage.

cato

12-04-2018, 05:33 PM

Interesting question. That makes sense. When you play the end game with a small lead, the opponent will foul more. To wit, the only game we've played that meets that description (Auburn) was our highest FT rate, and the 2nd closest game like that (Indiana) is our 3rd highest FT rate.

Game margin FTR
UK 34 36.7%
Army 22 18.1%
EMU 38 20.8%
SD St 26 59.6%
Auburn 6 63.0%
Gonzaga -2 36.1%
Indiana 11 46.0%
Stetson 64 23.1%

So, I went back to the data. Through 8 games, the current team has Duke's highest margin of victory since at least 1987 -- though of course it does because it's the only team since 1987 that hasn't played any ACC or tournament games. Still, 16 Duke teams since 1987 have had average margins of victory of more than 14 ppg. Of those, the current team's FT rate is the 2nd-lowest, ahead of only last year's team.

Year FT rate FTA/gm FG att FT att GP Poss/gm Margin NCAA
1992 50.41% 28.97 2069 1043 36 73.67 15.33 1
1999 46.86% 29.1 2422 1135 39 75.39 24.67 2
1991 45.36% 27.92 2401 1089 39 78.53 14.28 1
1989 44.00% 26.47 2166 953 36 78.91 16.75 4
1993 42.97% 26.19 1950 838 32 75.01 15.22 32
1998 42.14% 26.67 2278 960 36 73.44 21.5 8
2004 41.18% 24.05 2161 890 37 69.95 14.81 4
2002 41.01% 25.89 2209 906 35 77.19 19.74 16
1988 40.11% 24.97 2179 874 35 75.02 14.94 4
2015 39.84% 22.38 2191 873 39 65.78 15.1 1
2001 39.60% 25.69 2530 1002 39 76.65 20.21 1
2000 38.35% 24.5 2172 833 34 74.82 16.68 16
2010 37.85% 22.48 2375 899 40 66.55 15.95 1
2011 37.44% 22.32 2206 826 37 70.25 16.19 16
2019 36.05% 24.88 552 199 8 76.57 26.13
2018 34.57% 21.38 2288 791 37 70.65 14.73 8

Duke teams with the five highest average margin (including this year's team) were 1999 (3rd-highest FT rate in the 33 years since 1987); 1998 (11th of 33); 2001 (22nd of 33); 2002 (15th of 33); and this year (30th of 33).

So I looked at those five teams, all through their first 8 games:

Year FT rate season FTR FTA/gm FG att FT att GP Margin season margin
1999 52.18% 46.86% 31.38 481 251 8 24.13 24.67
1998 42.61% 42.14% 27.38 514 219 8 35.63 21.50
2002 40.15% 41.01% 26.00 518 208 8 20.00 19.74
2001 40.00% 39.60% 25.00 500 200 8 23.63 20.21
2019 36.05% ? 24.88 552 199 8 26.13 ?

I know, it's only five teams, but I just don't feel like collecting any more 8-game data. Looking at those five teams I notice (a) season FT rate varied very little from the FT rate in the first eight games (the only one of the four cases that varied by more than 1 percentage point was due to an amazing opening game of 1998-99 when we took 54 free throws against only 54 shots -- if you take that game away, the 1999 team had a 46.14% FT rate in games #2 to #8 vs. 46.86% for the season); season margin also didn't vary so much for three of the four other teams (the exception being 1998, possibly due to Elton Brand's two-month injury); and (c) this year's team still has by far the worst FT rate.

So, I guess we'll see. Maybe our FT rate will go up as we slog through league play, though the limited data I collected doesn't support that. For now it looks like we just don't get to the line so much.

Whoa. Thank you. This is fascinating.

Dumbed down takeaway: this does not look like a blip. Things could certainly change, but a dive into some likely parallel seasons suggests it is not a blip.

I wonder the reason, given the downhill, attack the rim nature of this offense. The two things that leap to mind: fouls are not being called on RJ’s attempts at the same rate as prior scorers, people are not fouling Zion inside because why bother.

Kedsy

12-04-2018, 05:44 PM

I might be willing to bet a pie that we end up the season at or above 70%, which all-in-all wouldn't be a bad percentage.

I have no interest in wagering pastry, but I would note that if the team shoots 70% from the line, it would still be the 10th worst Duke FT performance in the last 33 years.

BandAlum83

12-04-2018, 05:57 PM

I have no interest in wagering pastry, but I would note that if the team shoots 70% from the line, it would still be the 10th worst Duke FT performance in the last 33 years.

And right now it would put them in the 54th percentile, which is a far sight better than the current 18th percentile

kAzE

12-05-2018, 11:21 AM

Yikes, those rebounding stats are more than slightly concerning. To this point in the season, I think Marques and Javin have both slightly under-performed (relative to preseason expectations), although I suspect Javin is still not fully healthy.

I'm not sure if it's the injury, but Javin seems to have a really hard time relative to most other big men at staying upright . . . he ends up on the floor (and not by design) on an inordinate number of plays. Maybe he needs to work on his leg/core strength or something, I dunno. His balance is not very good right now.

Jack has been the best 5th guy next to the 4 freshmen without question. I don't know if that means he will start. IMO, he probably shouldn't start unless the other team starts a small lineup. Once 100% healthy, Javin seems like the logical choice at starting center if Marques continues to be a liability on the glass. Jack is just such a shot of energy off the bench, and I like him in that role. However, I'm all for him continuing to get starter's minutes and closing games. He's been everything we needed from a role player and more.

Another possible solution that hasn't been really considered is to bring Cam Reddish off the bench, and start Jack White at the 3. It's definitely unconventional, considering Cam is easily our best shooter, and obviously one of the 3 most talented players on the roster, but I really liked seeing him being the focal point of that second unit against Stetson. He was much more aggressive than usual and took over the game at times. He's still way too sloppy with the ball, throwing lazy passes and often getting stripped in the paint, but he seemed to be a different player when he was the go-to guy with RJ on the bench.

Cam probably won't ever come off the bench, but I think playing through him while RJ/Tre are on the bench is something we need to explore more in the next few games. There's still a lot of untapped potential with Cam.

NSDukeFan

12-05-2018, 12:40 PM

...

Cam probably won't ever come off the bench, but I think playing through him while RJ/Tre are on the bench is something we need to explore more in the next few games. There's still a lot of untapped potential with Cam.

I agree with this last line of having Cam being a creator when he can so that he can be more aggressive, but don’t think he needs to start the game on the bench to accomplish this.

CDu

12-05-2018, 03:07 PM

I agree with this last line of having Cam being a creator when he can so that he can be more aggressive, but don’t think he needs to start the game on the bench to accomplish this.

Yep, I agree. I think we want as few stretches with our "bench unit" (i.e., more than 1 or 2 bench guys at once) as possible. I imagine - or at least I HOPE - that we'll see fewer and fewer such minutes moving forward. I want Tre Jones and at least two of Williamson/Barrett/Reddish on the court for as close to 40 minutes as possible.

Kedsy

12-06-2018, 12:56 AM

kAzE

12-06-2018, 02:03 AM

Following up on a couple of discussions we've had in this thread, our FT rate against Hartford was an anemic 18.8% and Marques had zero (0) defensive rebounds (along with 2 more blocks) in 12 minutes.

I think Javin looked really good in this Hartford game. I don't know if it was just the right match up for him, or if he's finally hit another level where he's past the foot injury, but this performance has me wondering if he will get the start over Bolden in the next few games.

My hunch is that the plan all along was to have Javin take over at some point once he showed he was healthy enough. He's a junior captain, a much more accomplished rebounder than Bolden, and one of the top 3-4 defensive players on the team, which seems crazy to say, because Javin is an insanely good defender. I thought he would be THE best defensive player on the team before the season began, but jeez all three of RJ, Tre, and Zion are unbelievable on D, and they go ALL OUT. Even Cam is solid, and Jack is obviously great. It's really something special. It's been a long, long time since we've had a team this good on defense.

It's not that Bolden's been awful. He's doing a great job protecting the rim, which is clearly what the coaches want him to do. He's not getting any defensive rebounds, but he's usually the guy going for the shot contest on drives, so he's often out of position. It also doesn't help that Zion and RJ are each phenomenal rebounders, who go way out of their space to snatch boards. There's no question Bolden does have a big role on this team, I just think he would be able to retain basically this same role, but off the bench. Our best 5 clearly doesn't include him, so there doesn't seem to be any logic to starting him with Javin fully healthy, unless the opposing team starts a huge center. (Provided, of course, Javin doesn't foul himself out, as he is prone to do)

Or, maybe I'm totally off and he remains the starter for the whole season. The defensive rebounding numbers are fairly alarming, though.

Billy Dat

12-06-2018, 08:25 AM

I think Javin looked really good in this Hartford game. I don't know if it was just the right match up for him, or if he's finally hit another level where he's past the foot injury, but this performance has me wondering if he will get the start over Bolden in the next few games.

My hunch is that the plan all along was to have Javin take over at some point once he showed he was healthy enough. He's a junior captain, a much more accomplished rebounder than Bolden, and one of the top 3-4 defensive players on the team, which seems crazy to say, because Javin is an insanely good defender. I thought he would be THE best defensive player on the team before the season began, but jeez all three of RJ, Tre, and Zion are unbelievable on D, and they go ALL OUT. Even Cam is solid, and Jack is obviously great. It's really something special. It's been a long, long time since we've had a team this good on defense.

K on Jav from last night's presser:

“He’s playing great. He’s playing more like he played in Canada. He’s getting into a rhythm right now. When you play against these teams that have five position-less people or they don’t play a low post, it requires that fifth guy to guard the ball. Javin can do that. The lineup that we had in when we extended was when we had Jack [White] in there with the four freshmen, but then Javin came in and kept it up. I thought Alex[O’Connell] actually did a good job in the second half.”

DavidBenAkiva

12-06-2018, 09:34 AM

Billy Dat

12-06-2018, 09:58 AM

Sign of the "1-and-Done" times

@ShawnKrest
RJ Barrett is now Duke's active career leader in scoring

Kedsy

12-06-2018, 11:16 AM

Duke's 2-point defense is also pretty great, which is one potential explanation for the disparity on the defensive boards.

This is an interesting suggestion, but I don't see how. If our opponents are missing a lot of two-point shots how would that explain why we're not rebounding those misses?

cato

12-06-2018, 11:25 AM

Sign of the "1-and-Done" times

@ShawnKrest
RJ Barrett is now Duke's active career leader in scoring

Indeed. I wonder when this last happened: a freshman with the most career points on the team, before conference play begins.

I cannot think of another scenario where this would have happened.

Kedsy

12-06-2018, 11:51 AM

Here are some crazy defensive stats for you:

BLOCK PCT

Marques Bolden: 10.5%
Javin DeLaurier: 8.5%
Zion Williamson: 7.5%
Justin Robinson: 5.4%
Jack White: 4.3%

Last season, Wendell Carter's block% was 7.6% and Marques Bolden's was 7.5%. Before that, we hadn't had anyone as high as 7.0% since Shelden Williams in 2006 (Shelden holds the Duke record (2004), with 10.6%). This year, so far, we have three guys with block percentages of 7.5% or better.

STEALS PCT

Javin DeLaurier 4.8%
Zion Williamson 4.2%
Cam Reddish 4.2%
Tre Jones 3.0%
Alex O'Connell 2.9%

The last time a Duke player had a steals percentage higher than 3.0% was Tyler Thornton in 2014 (3.8%). The last time a Duke player had a steals pct higher than 4.0% was Wojo in 1997 (4.5%). This year we have three guys with steals% higher than 4.0% and five guys 2.9% or better.

DavidBenAkiva

12-06-2018, 12:01 PM

This is an interesting suggestion, but I don't see how. If our opponents are missing a lot of two-point shots how would that explain why we're not rebounding those misses?

It's a bit of a puzzle, but I think there are a couple things going on. First, teams are getting a lot of offensive rebound opportunities against Duke. Second, Duke is really going after the blocked shot. That puts at least one defender out of position to grab a defensive rebound. This accounts for the relatively poor performance from Bolden on the defensive glass. The staff has probably told him that his primary role on defense is to swat the ball away, thus creating run-out opportunities. And he's doing a great job of that. He's blocked about 10% of the shots attempted against him. He is a good rebounder, but his inclination and role on the defensive side of the floor is putting him out of position to get the ball. The same thing is happening with Zion, who is coming over from the help side to block shots. He's doing a great job at that, but again, it exposes the weakside to an offensive rebound from the other team. From what I can tell, this is all by design and something that we are just going to have to live with. This Duke team is going to be great on defensive but will be a bit exposed to defensive rebounds.

CDu

12-06-2018, 12:09 PM

It's a bit of a puzzle, but I think there are a couple things going on. First, teams are getting a lot of offensive rebound opportunities against Duke. Second, Duke is really going after the blocked shot. That puts at least one defender out of position to grab a defensive rebound. This accounts for the relatively poor performance from Bolden on the defensive glass. The staff has probably told him that his primary role on defense is to swat the ball away, thus creating run-out opportunities. And he's doing a great job of that. He's blocked about 10% of the shots attempted against him. He is a good rebounder, but his inclination and role on the defensive side of the floor is putting him out of position to get the ball. The same thing is happening with Zion, who is coming over from the help side to block shots. He's doing a great job at that, but again, it exposes the weakside to an offensive rebound from the other team. From what I can tell, this is all by design and something that we are just going to have to live with. This Duke team is going to be great on defensive but will be a bit exposed to defensive rebounds.

The first point is kind of irrelevant with regards to defensive rebounding rate, which is simply the percentage of defensive rebound opportunities collected by the defense.

The second is almost certainly a factor. While some guys are capable of being high-percentage defensive rebounders and shotblockers, it's not the norm. I do suspect there is an inverse relationship between defensive rebound % and block % among bigs. So it doesn't surprise me that we would be a terrific shotblocking team but not a good defensive rebounding team.

COYS

12-06-2018, 12:16 PM

The first point is kind of irrelevant with regards to defensive rebounding rate, which is simply the percentage of defensive rebound opportunities collected by the defense.

The second is almost certainly a factor. While some guys are capable of being high-percentage defensive rebounders and shotblockers, it's not the norm. I do suspect there is an inverse relationship between defensive rebound % and block % among bigs. So it doesn't surprise me that we would be a terrific shotblocking team but not a good defensive rebounding team.

I would also add that a blocked shot that flies out of bounds (as many of Zion's blocks have) counts as an offensive rebound for the opposing team. So, while I think that defensive rebounding is a slight concern and that Marques should definitely work to improve his numbers, it is also probably true that blocking a lot of shots could deflate our defensive rebounding percentages.

Side note: I know it's easier said than done, but sometimes Zion is so high in the air on his blocks that I'd love to see him just grab the ball and come down with it.

CDu

12-06-2018, 01:07 PM

I would also add that a blocked shot that flies out of bounds (as many of Zion's blocks have) counts as an offensive rebound for the opposing team. So, while I think that defensive rebounding is a slight concern and that Marques should definitely work to improve his numbers, it is also probably true that blocking a lot of shots could deflate our defensive rebounding percentages.

Side note: I know it's easier said than done, but sometimes Zion is so high in the air on his blocks that I'd love to see him just grab the ball and come down with it.

This is certainly true from the team rebounding perspective. Though I'd expect that to be a fairly small percentage (block rates in general are low, and blocks out of bounds are a small-ish percentage of those blocks). So I don't think it would suddenly make us an okay defensive rebounding team, but it certainly will deflate the team's rebounding stats somewhat.

Kedsy

12-06-2018, 01:18 PM

First, teams are getting a lot of offensive rebound opportunities against Duke.

As CDu pointed out, this wouldn't explain Duke's relatively poor DR%. Because if teams are getting a lot of offensive rebound opportunities against Duke, that means Duke is getting just as many defensive rebounding opportunities.

Second, Duke is really going after the blocked shot. That puts at least one defender out of position to grab a defensive rebound. This accounts for the relatively poor performance from Bolden on the defensive glass.

This is true, to an extent. But Duke's best shot-blocker ever, Shelden Williams, also rebounded defensively at a rate more than twice as high as Marques (Shelden's DR%, from FR to SR: 19.92%; 22.01%; 22.05%; 23.49% vs. Marques current 9.2%). If Marques had an 18% DR%, I doubt we'd be talking about this, but 9% is just plain awful and can't be explained away by the blocks.

CDu

12-06-2018, 01:24 PM

As CDu pointed out, this wouldn't explain Duke's relatively poor DR%. Because if teams are getting a lot of offensive rebound opportunities against Duke, that means Duke is getting just as many defensive rebounding opportunities.

This is true, to an extent. But Duke's best shot-blocker ever, Shelden Williams, also rebounded defensively at a rate more than twice as high as Marques (Shelden's DR%, from FR to SR: 19.92%; 22.01%; 22.05%; 23.49% vs. Marques current 9.2%). If Marques had an 18% DR%, I doubt we'd be talking about this, but 9% is just plain awful and can't be explained away by the blocks.

To be fair, Shelden Williams is kind of exceptional. It's not at all uncommon for guys to be good shotblockers and bad defensive rebounders (and vice versa). Guys who are good at both are kind of rare, and usually that makes them elite.

Now, that doesn't mean that Bolden's defensive rebound rate should be so low that it is lower than his block rate of course. That's pretty abysmal (though the block rate is conversely fantastic). I think his low rates are a combination of going for blocks AND just not being a good defensive rebounder as well.

azzefkram

12-06-2018, 01:55 PM

Kedsy

12-06-2018, 01:55 PM

To be fair, Shelden Williams is kind of exceptional. It's not at all uncommon for guys to be good shotblockers and bad defensive rebounders (and vice versa). Guys who are good at both are kind of rare, and usually that makes them elite.

Now, that doesn't mean that Bolden's defensive rebound rate should be so low that it is lower than his block rate of course. That's pretty abysmal (though the block rate is conversely fantastic). I think his low rates are a combination of going for blocks AND just not being a good defensive rebounder as well.

Maybe. Shelden was pretty special. That said, not counting Shelden (or this year's performance by Marques), the third-best season-long shot-blocking performance in Duke's last 33 years was put up by Wendell Carter last season (7.6% block pct), and Wendell had a 23.2% DR%. Out of a zone.

I agree with you that Marques's defensive rebounding problems are a combination, exacerbated by his going for blocks all the time. But again, if Marques had a so-so 18% DR%, or even a poor 16% DR%, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

It's also lower than his offensive rebounding rate which strikes me as a tad odd. I also wonder if how Duke plays defense contributes a bit to Bolden's poor defensive rebounding numbers. It can be challenging to get into good rebounding position from the 3pt line.

Yes, it is odd. Far as I can tell, the only centers in Duke history with an OR% higher than their DR% for a full season were Eric Meek in 1994 and Casey Sanders in 2001.

BandAlum83

12-06-2018, 03:19 PM

Indeed. I wonder when this last happened: a freshman with the most career points on the team, before conference play begins.

I cannot think of another scenario where this would have happened.

I can only speculate that Johnny Dawkins freshman year could possibly be a time that could have happened, but no. Chip Engelland was a senior that year with over 700 pts going into the season. Tom Emma also had over 500 career pts going into the season. Johnny did pass sophomore Danny Meagher pretty quickly, however.

DavidBenAkiva

12-06-2018, 03:27 PM

It's also lower than his offensive rebounding rate which strikes me as a tad odd. I also wonder if how Duke plays defense contributes a bit to Bolden's poor defensive rebounding numbers. It can be challenging to get into good rebounding position from the 3pt line.

I think might be the other key. I didn't word my other post particularly well. The defensive strategy of switching puts Marques out on the perimeter a lot. He's almost more likely to be near the rim on offense than on defense. So he is completely out of position to get to defensive rebounds.

Another factor is that Duke is forcing teams to take a lot of long jump shots. That creates long rebound opportunities. So when is close to the rim, the ball is bouncing off the rim and over his head. And when he is out on the perimeter, the ball is going inside. Damned if you do, damned if you don't!

I am not overly concerned about his defensive rebounding as he seems to be bringing a lot to the table when he is in the game.

azzefkram

12-06-2018, 03:50 PM

I think might be the other key. I didn't word my other post particularly well. The defensive strategy of switching puts Marques out on the perimeter a lot. He's almost more likely to be near the rim on offense than on defense. So he is completely out of position to get to defensive rebounds.

Completely agree.

Another factor is that Duke is forcing teams to take a lot of long jump shots. That creates long rebound opportunities. So when is close to the rim, the ball is bouncing off the rim and over his head. And when he is out on the perimeter, the ball is going inside. Damned if you do, damned if you don't!

This is my one pet peeve with Marques. About two or three times a game, I catch myself muttering "That's your ball Marques." He seems to ball watch a bit on the defensive end, especially on those long rebound opportunities.

I am not overly concerned about his defensive rebounding as he seems to be bringing a lot to the table when he is in the game.

I am on the same page. Duke is top 10 in defense, block% and steal%, in addition to being top 15 in defensive eFG% and 2P%. Marques is a pretty big part of that.

kAzE

12-06-2018, 04:00 PM

I think we can officially retire the "freshmen can't play defense" myth at this point. This is one of the best defensive teams I've ever seen at the college level.

It's true that younger players aren't as good at defense as they will be when they are older, but when your baseline is at the level of these freshmen, it doesn't matter.

HereBeforeCoachK

12-06-2018, 04:46 PM

I think we can officially retire the "freshmen can't play defense" myth at this point. This is one of the best defensive teams I've ever seen at the college level.

I agree we can retire the freshman myth.....and while I'm not ready to anoint them one of the best defensive teams....yet.....I will go ahead right now and say they are absolutely one of the best offensive teams off of a turnover that I've ever seen, and one of the most highlight worthy as well.

House P

12-06-2018, 06:36 PM

If Marques had an 18% DR%, I doubt we'd be talking about this, but 9% is just plain awful and can't be explained away by the blocks.

First of all, thanks for all the insightful stats/analysis you have provided in this thread. Here is some additional context regarding Bolden's rebounding and shot blocking so far this year.

As of yesterday's games, there are 976 division 1 players listed at 6'7" or taller who have played at least 30% of their team's minutes so far this year.

Among these 976 players,

Bolden's 9.2% defensive rebounding rate ranks 913th. That puts him in the bottom 7% of all Division 1 players 6'7" or taller.
Bolden's 12.1% offensive rebounding rate ranks 164th.
Bolden's 10.4% block rate ranks 46th.

For reference, here is how all Duke's big(ish) guys rank among players 6'7" or taller.

Note: The "Percentile" column represents the percent of Division 1 players with a lower rate. For example, Zion's offensive rebound rate of 15.7% is 39th best in the country, which is better than 96.0% of all players 6'7" or taller.

Def Reb%
Rank
Percentile
Off Reb%
Rank
Percentile
Block%
Rank
Percentile

Marques Bolden
9.2
913
6.5%
12.1
164
83.2%
10.4
46
95.3%

Javin DeLaurier
17.3
461
52.8%
13.4
109
88.8%
8.4
90
90.8%

Zion Williamson
18.0
407
58.3%
15.7
39
96.0%
7.5
115
88.2%

Jack White
18.4
374
61.7%
7.9
486
50.2%
4.3
298
69.5%

Cam Reddish
10.8
861
11.8%
1.9
948
2.9%
0.9
836
14.3%

R.J. Barrett
17.6
434
55.5%
4.9
765
21.6%
1.4
752
23.0%

JayZee

12-06-2018, 06:47 PM

Could it be because he is so often pulled into pick n rolls and he hedges/switches so aggressively? It just seems that he is 35 ft away from the basket on almost every play.

SilkyJ and I have been having a conversation about Marques's value (or lack thereof) on the defensive boards. He mentioned to me his idea that Marques is a bad defensive rebounder. After reviewing the historical data, my view is (at least so far this season) it's even worse than that. So far this season, Marques Bolden has been a historically poor defensive rebounder for a Duke center.

Below is a listing of every Duke player who played 300 or more minutes, primarily at center (I apologize if I missed someone or listed someone who was primarily a PF -- I did the best I could). Marques's current defensive rebounding percentage of 10.79% is the 2nd-worst in Duke history (or at least since 1987, when they started keeping the defensive rebound stat), ahead of only 2001 Casey Sanders. (Caution: you have to scroll down quite a ways to see this.)

Year Name min OR% DR% Blk% OR DR Blk
2012 Mason Plumlee 964 12.03% 26.53% 5.16% 99 213 55
2013 Mason Plumlee 1248 9.75% 25.06% 4.01% 99 260 52
2012 Miles Plumlee 697 16.63% 24.63% 4.15% 99 143 32
2010 Brian Zoubek 746 21.74% 24.40% 4.04% 143 166 31
2011 Mason Plumlee 949 11.16% 23.84% 5.79% 91 218 62
2006 Shelden Williams 1198 12.44% 23.49% 9.48% 117 267 137
2018 Wendell Carter 997 12.77% 23.15% 7.61% 109 226 76
2010 Miles Plumlee 654 11.27% 22.13% 3.87% 65 132 26
2005 Shelden Williams 1109 13.10% 22.05% 9.19% 127 242 122
2017 Amile Jefferson 1039 9.68% 22.05% 5.86% 84 209 65
2004 Shelden Williams 963 14.79% 22.01% 10.64% 119 195 111
1995 Cherokee Parks 1092 7.37% 21.96% 4.38% 68 221 55
1991 Christian Laettner 1178 11.05% 21.84% 2.98% 105 235 44
1990 Christian Laettner 1135 12.97% 21.71% 2.66% 129 235 41
2017 Harry Giles 300 16.36% 21.56% 5.31% 41 59 17
2014 Amile Jefferson 796 14.98% 21.26% 2.50% 101 139 20
1997 Greg Newton 688 9.59% 20.56% 4.32% 57 127 32
2019 Javin DeLaurier 86 13.02% 20.55% 4.20% 11 19 4
1999 Elton Brand 1141 14.33% 20.48% 6.36% 139 243 86
1987 Marty Nessley 376 11.42% 20.42% 5.51% 35 62 24
2003 Shelden Williams 633 14.83% 19.92% 7.72% 84 111 52
1992 Christian Laettner 1128 9.67% 19.53% 2.33% 82 193 32
2002 Carlos Boozer 993 13.55% 19.49% 1.91% 119 184 21
2007 Josh McRoberts 1164 7.60% 19.42% 6.86% 69 191 82
1989 Christian Laettner 608 11.89% 19.35% 3.77% 58 112 28
2009 Brian Zoubek 427 16.71% 18.96% 6.53% 63 70 29
2016 Marshall Plumlee 1099 12.15% 18.81% 4.93% 119 189 59
2018 Javin DeLaurier 419 15.05% 18.77% 4.53% 54 77 19
1996 Greg Newton 918 13.03% 18.66% 5.04% 106 149 48
2001 Carlos Boozer 820 7.88% 18.64% 2.86% 60 148 28
1994 Cherokee Parks 1038 11.73% 18.45% 6.12% 100 184 76
2003 Casey Sanders 589 14.80% 18.32% 8.62% 78 95 54
2015 Jahlil Okafor 1143 14.80% 18.20% 4.50% 134 188 54
1993 Cherokee Parks 899 8.59% 18.10% 5.57% 65 155 64
2018 Marques Bolden 373 11.90% 18.07% 7.49% 38 66 28
1995 Eric Meek 889 14.65% 17.82% 3.81% 110 146 39
1990 Alaa Abdelnaby 947 10.96% 17.82% 3.73% 91 161 48
1998 Elton Brand 493 16.49% 17.46% 5.15% 76 78 27
2011 Miles Plumlee 628 14.27% 17.19% 2.40% 77 104 17
2009 Kyle Singler 1193 10.63% 16.67% 3.06% 112 172 38
2000 Carlos Boozer 807 11.57% 16.51% 2.34% 81 132 23
1993 Eric Meek 371 10.89% 16.41% 2.11% 34 58 10
1994 Eric Meek 474 17.47% 16.24% 3.35% 68 74 19
1989 Alaa Abdelnaby 531 10.57% 15.82% 2.47% 45 80 16
1999 Chris Burgess 608 10.64% 15.66% 4.86% 55 99 35
2015 Marshall Plumlee 375 13.13% 15.64% 5.59% 39 53 22
1998 Chris Burgess 453 12.04% 15.35% 4.77% 51 63 23
2010 Mason Plumlee 480 9.21% 15.08% 6.08% 39 66 30
1996 Taymon Domzalski 635 12.97% 14.85% 3.49% 73 82 23
2008 Kyle Singler 972 7.83% 14.37% 2.31% 70 128 25
1988 John Smith 534 8.70% 14.24% 0.63% 40 67 4
2004 Shavlik Randolph 709 13.17% 13.80% 7.94% 78 90 61
1988 Alaa Abdelnaby 320 10.53% 13.48% 0.79% 29 38 3
1992 Cherokee Parks 435 9.17% 13.39% 6.62% 30 51 35
1991 Crawford Palmer 407 8.84% 12.91% 3.72% 29 48 19
1987 John Smith 720 7.50% 10.84% 0.96% 44 63 8
2019 Marques Bolden 138 11.81% 10.79% 10.47% 16 16 16
2001 Casey Sanders 373 9.82% 8.03% 7.18% 34 29 32

Now, it must also be said that if Marques keeps his current blocked shot pace, he'll be the 2nd-best shotblocker (from a blocks% basis) in Duke history (again, since 1987). And it is an axiom that great shotblockers often sacrifice defensive rebounds when they go for blocks. But I don't think that's a good enough explanation, since Shelden Williams's at-least-for-now blocks% record was accompanied by a DR% more than twice as high as Marques's current DR%.

And it's also true that Marques wasn't nearly as bad at defensive rebounding in 2017-18, though he wasn't good either (35th on the Duke centers list, out of 58). Finally, clearly it's only a 7-game sample -- though even with that, the only Duke players who've played 5 or more mpg this season with a worse DR% than Marques are our two PGs (Tre and Jordan G).

So I tried but I couldn't think of any explanation other than Marques Bolden has been a really bad defensive rebounder so far this season. Hopefully that will improve, and I'm sure it will, at least a little. But if you're looking for a major improvement in this area, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Kedsy

12-06-2018, 09:31 PM

Could it be because he is so often pulled into pick n rolls and he hedges/switches so aggressively? It just seems that he is 35 ft away from the basket on almost every play.

I don't know. I've always felt that Marques is pretty good on the hedge-and-recover (which by definition includes getting back inside after the hedge). Though it's possible I guess that he just might not be very good rebounding outside his area, and when he recovers from a hedge (as well as when he goes for a block), maybe he doesn't quite make it back to the optimal rebounding area, so he doesn't get as many opportunities as he should.

That said, House P's cool chart shows us that Marques is in the bottom 6.5% nationally in defensive rebounding, among players 6'7" or taller. Considering he's 6'11" with a 7'6" wingspan, no matter how many explanations or excuses we can come up with, him being in the bottom 6.5% kinda boggles the mind.

MChambers

12-07-2018, 08:44 AM

I don't know. I've always felt that Marques is pretty good on the hedge-and-recover (which by definition includes getting back inside after the hedge). Though it's possible I guess that he just might not be very good rebounding outside his area, and when he recovers from a hedge (as well as when he goes for a block), maybe he doesn't quite make it back to the optimal rebounding area, so he doesn't get as many opportunities as he should.

That said, House P's cool chart shows us that Marques is in the bottom 6.5% nationally in defensive rebounding, among players 6'7" or taller. Considering he's 6'11" with a 7'6" wingspan, no matter how many explanations or excuses we can come up with, him being in the bottom 6.5% kinda boggles the mind.

I've always thought Marques has slow reactions to the ball. Some guys like Zion or Elton Brand have incredibly quick reactions to the ball (whether it's coming off the glass or otherwise, like a loose ball), but Marques doesn't. Someone here, perhaps you, Kedsy, compared Marques to Brendan Haywood. I thought it was a good comparison, in part because of the slow reaction issue.

kAzE

12-07-2018, 10:41 AM

I've always thought Marques has slow reactions to the ball. Some guys like Zion or Elton Brand have incredibly quick reactions to the ball (whether it's coming off the glass or otherwise, like a loose ball), but Marques doesn't. Someone here, perhaps you, Kedsy, compared Marques to Brendan Haywood. I thought it was a good comparison, in part because of the slow reaction issue.

Brendan Haywood played almost 15 years in the NBA and won a championship in 2011 with the Mavericks . . .

Not trying to put down Marques or anything, but he is going to have to show some real progress in these next 2 years if he hopes to even come close to what Haywood accomplished in his basketball career.

MChambers

12-07-2018, 12:31 PM

Brendan Haywood played almost 15 years in the NBA and won a championship in 2011 with the Mavericks . . .

Not trying to put down Marques or anything, but he is going to have to show some real progress in these next 2 years if he hopes to even come close to what Haywood accomplished in his basketball career.

Oh, I definitely agree, but Haywood never was as good as you would have thought, taking into account his size and decent shooting ability.

JayZee

12-07-2018, 02:08 PM

I don't know. I've always felt that Marques is pretty good on the hedge-and-recover (which by definition includes getting back inside after the hedge). Though it's possible I guess that he just might not be very good rebounding outside his area, and when he recovers from a hedge (as well as when he goes for a block), maybe he doesn't quite make it back to the optimal rebounding area, so he doesn't get as many opportunities as he should.

That said, House P's cool chart shows us that Marques is in the bottom 6.5% nationally in defensive rebounding, among players 6'7" or taller. Considering he's 6'11" with a 7'6" wingspan, no matter how many explanations or excuses we can come up with, him being in the bottom 6.5% kinda boggles the mind.

He also seems to get stuffed a ton at the rim for someone so big. He seems to lack both strength and quickness off the ground. Boozer was more earthbound, but his strength and width made up for that. Bagley was clearly just so quick off the ground. Zion is both....

TruBlu

12-07-2018, 03:13 PM

He also seems to get stuffed a ton at the rim for someone so big. He seems to lack both strength and quickness off the ground. Boozer was more earthbound, but his strength and width made up for that. Bagley was clearly just so quick off the ground. Zion is both...

For those of us who are fortunate enough to attend games at Cameron on a regular basis, try to arrive early enough to watch the first pregame warmup that the team goes through.

There is a put-back drill for our "bigs" where our guards and managers intentionally throw up bricks, and the object is for the "bigs" to rebound (unguarded) and put back up a shot. All of our "bigs", except for one, will grab the rebound, bring the ball down to the chest area, and then go back up with a shot. That one exception is Bolden. On almost every one of his rebounds, even unguarded, he brings the ball down to his waist, takes one dribble, then goes up for a shot.

Nate James was intently watching the drill. I kept hoping that Nate would go to Bolden and tell him to cut it out. Never happened.

Ian

12-07-2018, 03:29 PM

For those of us who are fortunate enough to attend games at Cameron on a regular basis, try to arrive early enough to watch the first pregame warmup that the team goes through.

There is a put-back drill for our "bigs" where our guards and managers intentionally throw up bricks, and the object is for the "bigs" to rebound (unguarded) and put back up a shot. All of our "bigs", except for one, will grab the rebound, bring the ball down to the chest area, and then go back up with a shot. That one exception is Bolden. On almost every one of his rebounds, even unguarded, he brings the ball down to his waist, takes one dribble, then goes up for a shot.

Nate James was intently watching the drill. I kept hoping that Nate would go to Bolden and tell him to cut it out. Never happened.

Yup, this squares with what we see in games. Bolden's real problem is that he has weak lower body strength. he has trouble holding position, he also has trouble recovering from a jump and has a very slow second jump (the opposite of Bagley). He's actually gotten better but overall he still needs to work on his leg strength. I do wonder if the injuries he's had (both lower body injuries) has hampered his development in this area.

jv001

12-07-2018, 03:50 PM

Yup, this squares with what we see in games. Bolden's real problem is that he has weak lower body strength. he has trouble holding position, he also has trouble recovering from a jump and has a very slow second jump (the opposite of Bagley). He's actually gotten better but overall he still needs to work on his leg strength. I do wonder if the injuries he's had (both lower body injuries) has hampered his development in this area.

Don't know about the per-game drill but our other big(Javin) has the same bad habit in games. There are times if Javin goes up once he get's the ball, more than likely he makes the bucket, get's fouled or both. There's room for improvement for Marques and Javin. GoDuke!

Kedsy

12-07-2018, 04:06 PM

Don't know about the per-game drill but our other big(Javin) has the same bad habit in games. There are times if Javin goes up once he get's the ball, more than likely he makes the bucket, get's fouled or both. There's room for improvement for Marques and Javin. GoDuke!

FWIW, Javin has missed a grand total of four (4) shots this season (one of them a three). Maybe he could have taken more shots if he went up the moment he touched the ball, but basically if he takes the shot at all it has an 80% chance of going in (85% on two-point shots). And it's not just this season; his career two-point fg pct is over 76%. Obviously, one reason his shooting percentage is so good is he rarely shoots from outside of a few feet, but he's not missing bunnies or getting stuffed at the rim.

Not quite as good but in the same ballpark is Marques, who has missed just 8 two-point shots this season and is shooting 67% on two-pointers for the season.

Saratoga2

12-07-2018, 04:22 PM

azzefkram

12-07-2018, 04:27 PM

I notice the same thing. Bigs who bring the ball to the floor to gather themselves, expose the ball to swipes by smaller quicker players. Those wouldn't show up as stuffs or missed shots, but turnovers. DeLauier is quicker than Bolden and probably can avoid turnovers developing in that way.

He doesn't. Javin has the worst turnover rate (by far) of any of our rotation players.

Kedsy

12-07-2018, 05:29 PM

He doesn't. Javin has the worst turnover rate (by far) of any of our rotation players.

This is true regarding Javin's TO%. But of Javin's 10 turnovers so far this season, a quick perusal of the play-by-play suggests only 2 were from him being stripped of the ball. The rest were charges (2, maybe 3), stepping out of bounds (I think 1), throwing the ball away, and moving screens (I suspect at least 3 moving screens). So it's not like he's being stripped constantly or anything.

DukieInBrasil

12-07-2018, 11:06 PM

This is true regarding Javin's TO%. But of Javin's 10 turnovers so far this season, a quick perusal of the play-by-play suggests only 2 were from him being stripped of the ball. The rest were charges (2, maybe 3), stepping out of bounds (I think 1), throwing the ball away, and moving screens (I suspect at least 3 moving screens). So it's not like he's being stripped constantly or anything.

that may be true, but i recall seeing the ball in his hands and it getting taken away on rebounds quite a bit. The in-game chat has called it "8 yr old girl hands". They may not show up as turnovers b/c it may not have registered as a possession, but Javin loses balls that he had both hands on a fair amount. I remember seeing that happen at least 2 or 3 times vs IU.

Kedsy

12-07-2018, 11:42 PM

that may be true, but i recall seeing the ball in his hands and it getting taken away on rebounds quite a bit. The in-game chat has called it "8 yr old girl hands". They may not show up as turnovers b/c it may not have registered as a possession, but Javin loses balls that he had both hands on a fair amount. I remember seeing that happen at least 2 or 3 times vs IU.

Maybe. His offensive rebounding pct (13.5%) is pretty good and his defensive rebounding pct (17.4%) is adequate but not particularly good for a guy who plays most of his minutes at center. But his overall rebounding percentage is 2nd on the team (behind Zion), so he's probably not losing too many more rebounds he should get than any of our other players.

DukieInBrasil

12-08-2018, 12:59 AM

Maybe. His offensive rebounding pct (13.5%) is pretty good and his defensive rebounding pct (17.4%) is adequate but not particularly good for a guy who plays most of his minutes at center. But his overall rebounding percentage is 2nd on the team (behind Zion), so he's probably not losing too many more rebounds he should get than any of our other players.

one of the ones i remember specifically was when Javin received a pass just outside of the paint, or maybe he was right on the line, and rather than just going strait up at the basket, dribbled maybe even did a bunny hop and then either got it knocked away on the way up or blocked. Either way, the result was that he lost the ball because he didn't make an aggressive move to the basket right away. It's certainly something he can learn and/or improve on. He's got the athleticism to dunk the ball off of a pass like that, but hasn't managed to make that his instinctive response.
I'd love to see some of his other offensive diversification we heard about in the off-season, but withe other amazing offensive options on this team i doubt we'll see it much, if at all.

Kedsy

12-08-2018, 10:57 PM

I'd love to see some of his other offensive diversification we heard about in the off-season, but withe other amazing offensive options on this team i doubt we'll see it much, if at all.

Probably true. Doing what he does best, Javin has converted his last 8 fg attempts. Still has a long way to go to break Alaa Abdelnaby's Duke record of 20 (set in 1988-89).

In Marques Bolden news, against Yale he had 1 defensive rebound and 2 blocks in 12 minutes. That gives him a DR% of 9.2% and a block% of 10.9%, which would break Shelden's all-time Duke record if it lasts all season.

Indoor66

12-09-2018, 08:17 AM

DukieInBrasil

12-09-2018, 10:15 AM

Which, to me, represents the meaninglessness of some statistics.

i don't know why you'd find that meaningless. Marques is playing the vast majority of his minutes against the opposing starters, so he's getting blocks against the opponents' best players, not the deep bench guys in mop-up time. It's just that he's not playing a lot of minutes, largely b/c he's an historically bad defensive rebounder and doesn't bring a lot of offense to the table. It's like the old Zoubek myth, that all of the sudden he took this huge leap forward and became great, when the reality was that he simply started getting more minutes. Zoubek's rebound and scoring rate didn't really change, he just started playing more.

Clipsfan

12-09-2018, 11:34 AM

loran16

12-09-2018, 11:49 AM

i don't know why you'd find that meaningless. Marques is playing the vast majority of his minutes against the opposing starters, so he's getting blocks against the opponents' best players, not the deep bench guys in mop-up time. It's just that he's not playing a lot of minutes, largely b/c he's an historically bad defensive rebounder and doesn't bring a lot of offense to the table. It's like the old Zoubek myth, that all of the sudden he took this huge leap forward and became great, when the reality was that he simply started getting more minutes. Zoubek's rebound and scoring rate didn't really change, he just started playing more.

Not really buying the "Bolden historically bad defensive rebounder" narrative - Bolden's D Boarding last year was at a far more normal for a center 18% (totally unimpressive in that area mind you, but normal) and this strikes me as more of a small sample fluke than anything. I expect Bolden's block rate to drop and his dboarding to increase due to simple regression.

As for Zoubek, Zoubek in Freshman through Junior years was pretty consistent at ~16% O Board and 19-20% D Boards, while those numbers jumped to 21% O Boarding (1st in NCAA) and nearly 25% as a Senior. So no it wasn't really a myth that he took a leap forward. He did! It coincided with him playing more because, well that's what happens when you take a leap forward.

COYS

12-09-2018, 12:39 PM

Not really buying the "Bolden historically bad defensive rebounder" narrative - Bolden's D Boarding last year was at a far more normal for a center 18% (totally unimpressive in that area mind you, but normal) and this strikes me as more of a small sample fluke than anything. I expect Bolden's block rate to drop and his dboarding to increase due to simple regression.

As for Zoubek, Zoubek in Freshman through Junior years was pretty consistent at ~16% O Board and 19-20% D Boards, while those numbers jumped to 21% O Boarding (1st in NCAA) and nearly 25% as a Senior. So no it wasn't really a myth that he took a leap forward. He did! It coincided with him playing more because, well that's what happens when you take a leap forward.

I think the narrative of zoubek’s rate stats remaining stable while his minutes increased is misremembered. It wasn’t as much about zoubek’s career stays remaining stable as it was his senior season stats. Even before his famous breakout against Maryland in February and subsequent move to the starting lineup, senior Zoubek had been a beast on the o-boards and his plus/minus numbers were impressive. And while some of those stats were good in past seasons, they moved into elite status his senior year. However, he didn’t get the minutes until later in the season. Another component of Zoubek’s increase in minutes was a decrease in foul rate. I just think it took time for the staff to figure out how to best use Zoubek’s rather unique skill set and to trust that he could stay on the floor enough to be one of the most important pieces on a championship team.

BandAlum83

12-09-2018, 01:09 PM

Kedsy

12-09-2018, 03:13 PM

If I remember correctly, that one rebound was one that fell into his hands on the baseline, it wasn't one that he sought out.

You remember correctly. I noticed that when it happened as well.

Not really buying the "Bolden historically bad defensive rebounder" narrative - Bolden's D Boarding last year was at a far more normal for a center 18% (totally unimpressive in that area mind you, but normal) and this strikes me as more of a small sample fluke than anything. I expect Bolden's block rate to drop and his dboarding to increase due to simple regression.

You may be right about regression. But for all we know his adequate (18%) DR% in 373 minutes last season might have been the fluke. His freshman year DR% was 8.4%, even worse than this year, albeit in limited (158) minutes. And right now, he's "earned" that 9% DR% (in 182 minutes, almost half his total minutes last season). His career DR% is 13.5%, which is pretty awful for a center, and that might be the mean to which he regresses.

Considering he had 7 blocks in one game, the blocks might be a more reasonable candidate to regress to the mean. Though it's worth noting that in the past few games his block rate has increased, so maybe it's real. Who knows? We obviously won't until the end of the season.

Which, to me, represents the meaninglessness of some statistics.

i don't know why you'd find that meaningless. Marques is playing the vast majority of his minutes against the opposing starters, so he's getting blocks against the opponents' best players, not the deep bench guys in mop-up time. It's just that he's not playing a lot of minutes, largely b/c he's an historically bad defensive rebounder and doesn't bring a lot of offense to the table.

I agree with DiB. While it may be a small sample aberration, as loran16 suggests, it's certainly not meaningless. In the first 10 games of this season, Marques Bolden has blocked shots at a rate a little better than Shelden Williams's best season. Shelden was a lot better than Marques at other things, but so far Marques has been a slightly better shotblocker. If it lasts all season, we should give Marques his due, even if he only plays 15 or so mpg.

It wasn’t as much about zoubek’s career stats remaining stable as it was his senior season stats. Even before his famous breakout against Maryland in February and subsequent move to the starting lineup, senior Zoubek had been a beast on the o-boards and his plus/minus numbers were impressive. And while some of those stats were good in past seasons, they moved into elite status his senior year. However, he didn’t get the minutes until later in the season.

I think this is right too. In fact, his senior year OR% before the Maryland game (22.8%) was even better than his OR% from Maryland to the end of the season (20.6%).

People seem to be conditioned to consider counting stats above all others. But for guys who put up great advanced stats in limited minutes, who can say if it's "real" (meaning the great rates would continue if the player received more minutes) or "meaningless." Personally, I believe that after a certain number of minutes, the advanced stats show the true player. In other words, I don't think Mike Buckmire (20.5% OR%/18.5% DR% out of the guard position, in 10 total garbage-time minutes) is Duke's best overall rebounder this season, but I do think Marques Bolden's stats (in 182 minutes) accurately reflect who he's been so far this season.

Ian

12-09-2018, 03:25 PM

Another factor to consider is that some bench players, knowing they will only play small minutes, goes all out for those minutes and produce good rates states that they cannot duplicate if they were playing starter minutes. So you can' just extrapolate that a player who gets says 7 rebounds per 15 minutes would be able to get 14 if you gave him 30 minutes.

kAzE

12-10-2018, 10:31 AM

plimnko

12-10-2018, 05:58 PM

www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25494194/duke-blue-devils-10-games-little-things-matter

dyedwab

12-10-2018, 07:56 PM

www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25494194/duke-blue-devils-10-games-little-things-matter

I think this article totally captures this team right now. They are so, so good - individually and as a team. But there are little things that they do that just need to be cleaned up. And that they will clean those things up as they play more because they are so, so good - individually and as a team.

lotusland

12-10-2018, 09:13 PM

sagegrouse

12-10-2018, 09:27 PM

Nugget

12-11-2018, 08:00 PM

kAzE

12-12-2018, 11:02 AM

This seems like a promising development (from Jon Rothstein's twitter page promoting a podcast interview he did with Coach K):

@JonRothstein - Dec 10

Coach K tells me that Duke's current freshman class is undertaking more responsibility than any he's had in recent memory. Blue Devils started four first-year players last year and three in 14-15.

What was the context for this quote? If I had to guess, maybe they've really locked in since the loss to Gonzaga? And I'm also guessing RJ is the guy who put this idea into Coach K's mind.

I've been convincing myself that loss will end up being a blessing in disguise for this team as a motivational catalyst. It was a loss to one of the best teams in the country in a championship game with a Final Four type of feel, so I'm sure the team (and especially RJ) was extremely pissed and has worked like crazy to get better these past 2 weeks.

RJ got a bunch of flak for his performance in Maui, but I don't think anyone would dispute he's been the best player on the team since that loss. He's shot 40 of 65 (61.5%), and averaged 26.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in the 4 games since Maui, one in which he only played 17 minutes. He might be making a case to get back to the #1 overall pick in the draft. He has the MJ/Westbrook type of competitiveness. You can just tell how much he HATES losing.

I don't usually try to make predictions about the NCAA tournament, but barring injury, I would be shocked if this team doesn't make the Final Four. You rarely see a team this locked in on both ends of the floor.

jv001

12-12-2018, 11:46 AM

What was the context for this quote? If I had to guess, maybe they've really locked in since the loss to Gonzaga? And I'm also guessing RJ is the guy who put this idea into Coach K's mind.

I've been convincing myself that loss will end up being a blessing in disguise for this team as a motivational catalyst. It was a loss to one of the best teams in the country in a championship game with a Final Four type of feel, so I'm sure the team (and especially RJ) was extremely pissed and has worked like crazy to get better these past 2 weeks.

RJ got a bunch of flak for his performance in Maui, but I don't think anyone would dispute he's been the best player on the team since that loss. He's shot 40 of 65 (61.5%), and averaged 26.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in the 4 games since Maui, one in which he only played 17 minutes. He might be making a case to get back to the #1 overall pick in the draft. He has the MJ/Westbrook type of competitiveness. You can just tell how much he HATES losing.

I don't usually try to make predictions about the NCAA tournament, but barring injury, I would be shocked if this team doesn't make the Final Four. You rarely see a team this locked in on both ends of the floor.

kAzE, you make some good points. It seems that RJ might be the leader of the freshmen class but Zion and Tre are close behind in leadership qualities. I would like to see Cam step up in that way. It looks like he's deferring to the other guys right now because his shot is not falling. I know he's still putting up shots but he doesn't seem to be taking a leadership role in game. Once he regains his confidence I believe we will see a different Cam. GoDuke!

SilkyJ

12-17-2018, 11:02 PM

This is true regarding Javin's TO%. But of Javin's 10 turnovers so far this season, a quick perusal of the play-by-play suggests only 2 were from him being stripped of the ball. The rest were charges (2, maybe 3), stepping out of bounds (I think 1), throwing the ball away, and moving screens (I suspect at least 3 moving screens). So it's not like he's being stripped constantly or anything.

I think we are missing Jav's most glaring weakness, and its fairly obvious, his Foul Rate. He's averaging 7.9 fouls per 40. That's by far the most of anyone in the rotation (Vrank has played 41 mins and has 10 fouls, so he's at 9.8 fouls/40, but its too small a sample size.) The next closest is Cam at 4.2 fouls/40--Jav is fouling at almost 2x the rate of anyone else on the team (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2019.html)!!

Kedsy

12-17-2018, 11:34 PM

I think we are missing Jav's most glaring weakness, and its fairly obvious, his Foul Rate. He's averaging 7.9 fouls per 40. That's by far the most of anyone in the rotation (Vrank has played 41 mins and has 10 fouls, so he's at 9.8 fouls/40, but its too small a sample size.) The next closest is Cam at 4.2 fouls/40--Jav is fouling at almost 2x the rate of anyone else on the team (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2019.html)!!

FWIW, at this point (10 games) in 2009-10, Brian Zoubek was averaging 8.9 fouls per 40. By the end of the season he managed to get that under control. We can all hope that Javin does too.

MChambers

12-18-2018, 09:35 AM

I think we are missing Jav's most glaring weakness, and its fairly obvious, his Foul Rate. He's averaging 7.9 fouls per 40. That's by far the most of anyone in the rotation (Vrank has played 41 mins and has 10 fouls, so he's at 9.8 fouls/40, but its too small a sample size.) The next closest is Cam at 4.2 fouls/40--Jav is fouling at almost 2x the rate of anyone else on the team (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2019.html)!!

It's been discussed at length here. If he could get his fouls under control, he'd be a much better player.

Kedsy

12-19-2018, 10:54 AM

Probably true. Doing what he does best, Javin has converted his last 8 fg attempts. Still has a long way to go to break Alaa Abdelnaby's Duke record of 20 (set in 1988-89).

In Marques Bolden news, against Yale he had 1 defensive rebound and 2 blocks in 12 minutes. That gives him a DR% of 9.2% and a block% of 10.9%, which would break Shelden's all-time Duke record if it lasts all season.

Javin has now made 11 consecutive field goals.

Against Princeton Marques had five defensive rebounds in 15 minutes, bringing his DR% up to 10.8%. It's still the second-lowest for a center in Duke history, but at least he's heading in the right direction. Perhaps not coincidentally, Duke had it's best DR% in a game this season (81.4%).

Marques also had four blocks in 15 minutes, bringing his block% up to 12.3%, significantly better than Shelden Williams's Duke season record of 10.6% (though obviously there's a long road ahead before Marques can claim the record).

TruBlu

12-19-2018, 11:07 AM

The rebounding statistics for this game might be misleading. Princeton seldom attempted to get an offensive rebound. They seemed more intent on getting back on defense to prevent fast breaks.

My main concern at the moment is how we seem to get off to slow starts. I realize that the Princeton game was after a long layoff, but we have started slowly in a few games. It cost us dearly against the Zags. For Texas Tech, and beyond in ACC play, it could cost us again.

Kedsy

12-21-2018, 12:41 PM

It's possible that how "comfortably" we beat these teams does in fact matter. Below is a table of every Coach K team since 1984 and each team's number of blowout wins:

I've updated the relevant tables to reflect how this year's team compares, through the end of the calendar year:

Year 20+ 30+ AP rk NCAAT
1999 24 15 1 2
1998 20 14 3 8
2001 20 12 1 1
2002 18 9 1 16
2010 17 7 3 1
1989 17 7 9 4
2011 13 6 5 16
2004 13 5 6 4
2015 13 5 4 1
2000 12 9 1 16
1990 12 8 15 2
1991 12 7 6 1
2018 12 4 5 8
1988 11 9 5 4
1993 11 7 10 32
1992 11 5 1 1
1986 11 3 1 2
2009 10 5 6 16
2014 10 5 8 64
1997 10 5 8 32
2008 10 4 9 32
2013 10 3 6 8
2019** 9 6 2
2006 9 4 1 16
2017 8 6 7 32
1987 8 5 17 16
2016 8 4 19 16
2005 7 6 3 16
2003 7 2 7 16
2007 7 1 unr 64
1985 6 4 10 32
2012 6 3 8 64
1996 6 2 unr 64
1994 6 2 6 2
1995 5 4 unr n/a
1984 3 1 14 32

** so far

Year gms 20+ % NCAA
2019 12 9 75.0%
1999 13 9 69.2% 2
2001 12 8 66.7% 1
2010 12 8 66.7% 1
2011 12 8 66.7% 16
2005 8* 5 62.5% 16
2004 10 6 60.0% 4
2008 12* 7 58.3% 32
2009 12 7 58.3% 16
2016 13 7 53.8% 16
2002 12* 6 50.0% 16
2003 8* 4 50.0% 16
2015 12 6 50.0% 1
2006 13 6 46.2% 16
2000 11* 5 45.5% 16
2017 14 6 42.9% 32
2013 13* 5 38.5% 8
2014 13 5 38.5% 64
2018 14 5 35.7% 8
2007 13 4 30.8% 64
2012 13* 4 30.8% 64

* - includes a game against non-conference teams in the few days immediately after New Year's.

So, one can argue this year's team has had the most dominant November/December team in Coach K's Duke tenure. Which is a big wow.

Two more 20+ wins and we'll join that group of 17 Duke teams with more than 10 blowout wins that includes 11 of our 12 Final Fours plus 2 of our 3 Elite Eights.

brevity

12-21-2018, 08:16 PM

Kedsy

12-21-2018, 11:37 PM

This has to be a DBR first: I am going to reply to a Kedsy post and make a small observation about stats. (One never combines stats and comedy, except for the line "60 percent of the time, it works every time.")

The first table is more interesting (at least to me) if you reorganize it by the 30+ column instead of the 20+ column. I've done so below for years that are tied or ahead of the current season:

Year 20+ 30+ AP rk NCAAT
1999 24 15 1 2
1998 20 14 3 8
2001 20 12 1 1
2000 12 9 1 16
1988 11 9 5 4
2002 18 9 1 16
1990 12 8 15 2
1989 17 7 9 4
1991 12 7 6 1
1993 11 7 10 32
2010 17 7 3 1
2005 7 6 3 16
2011 13 6 5 16
2017 8 6 7 32
2019** 9 6 2

Where there's a tie, I've put the years in chronological order, with one exception. I moved 2000 ahead of 1988 to point out a couple of things:

1. The top four lines of my altered table are Shane Battier's career: 1999-1998-2001-2000. (There is also significant overlap with Nate James' career, but you have to account for the 1997 freshman year and 1998 medical redshirt.) We single out 1999 as Duke's most dominant so far -- and deservedly so -- but that whole 4-year period is consistently ridiculous. As Kedsy's original table indicates, 2002 is also up there, which surely can be explained by some Matt Christensen continuity.

2. Kedsy's percentage table bodes well for the current season being the first in a long time (since 2010?) to have a chance of breaking up that 1998-2002 string. Granted, it does not provide for the percentage of 30+ point victories in the November/December time frame of each year, but no one asked, and he doesn't read minds.

OK, so I went back and added a 30+ column and percentage, since someone asked. I also went all the way back to 1984 instead of the 20 years of Nov/Dec data I had before.

Here's the 35-year table, sorted by pct of games won by 20+ points:

NOV/DEC 20+

Year gms 20+ % 30+ % NCAA incl. gm after 1/1
1998 12 10 83.3% 8 66.7% 8
1989 11 9 81.8% 5 45.5% 4 *
1988 10 8 80.0% 6 60.0% 4 *
2019 12 9 75.0% 6 50.0%
1999 13 9 69.2% 7 53.8% 2
2001 12 8 66.7% 6 50.0% 1
2010 12 8 66.7% 6 50.0% 1
2011 12 8 66.7% 6 50.0% 16
1992 6 4 66.7% 3 50.0% 1
2004 11 7 63.6% 3 27.3% 4 *
2005 8 5 62.5% 4 50.0% 16
2008 12 7 58.3% 3 25.0% 32 *
2009 12 7 58.3% 4 33.3% 16
1997 12 7 58.3% 4 33.3% 32 *
1993 9 5 55.6% 3 33.3% 32 *
1990 11 6 54.5% 4 36.4% 2 *
2016 13 7 53.8% 4 30.8% 16
2002 12 6 50.0% 3 25.0% 16 *
2003 8 4 50.0% 2 25.0% 16 *
2015 12 6 50.0% 3 25.0% 1
2006 13 6 46.2% 4 30.8% 16 *
1986 13 6 46.2% 2 15.4% 2 *
2000 11 5 45.5% 5 45.5% 16 *
1995 11 5 45.5% 4 36.4% n/a *
1987 11 5 45.5% 5 45.5% 16 *
1985 11 5 45.5% 3 27.3% 32
2017 14 6 42.9% 5 35.7% 32
1994 7 3 42.9% 1 14.3% 2
1991 12 5 41.7% 4 33.3% 1 *
2013 13 5 38.5% 2 15.4% 8 *
2014 13 5 38.5% 4 30.8% 64
1996 11 4 36.4% 2 18.2% 64
2018 14 5 35.7% 3 21.4% 8
2012 13 4 30.8% 3 23.1% 64 *
2007 14 4 28.6% 1 7.1% 64 *
1984 14 4 28.6% 1 7.1% 32

It appears that 1998, 1989, and 1988 all had a higher percentage of 20+ Nov/Dec wins than this year's team (none of those years were in the previous table). It also appears as if this year's team is in good company, as eight of the ten teams with 20+ point wins in over 60% of their Nov/Dec games got at least to the Elite Eight (80%), seven of ten made the Final Four (70%), and three of ten won the championship (30%). The seven teams won fewer than 40% of their Nov/Dec games by 20+ points included two Elite Eight teams (28.6%) and four first-round losers (57.1%).

Now, the same table sorted by pct of games won by 30+ points:

NOV/DEC 30+

Year gms 20+ % 30+ % NCAA incl. gm after 1/1
1998 12 10 83.3% 8 66.7% 8
1988 10 8 80.0% 6 60.0% 4 *
1999 13 9 69.2% 7 53.8% 2
2019 12 9 75.0% 6 50.0%
2001 12 8 66.7% 6 50.0% 1
2010 12 8 66.7% 6 50.0% 1
2011 12 8 66.7% 6 50.0% 16
1992 6 4 66.7% 3 50.0% 1
2005 8 5 62.5% 4 50.0% 16
1989 11 9 81.8% 5 45.5% 4 *
2000 11 5 45.5% 5 45.5% 16 *
1987 11 5 45.5% 5 45.5% 16 *
1990 11 6 54.5% 4 36.4% 2 *
1995 11 5 45.5% 4 36.4% n/a *
2017 14 6 42.9% 5 35.7% 32
2009 12 7 58.3% 4 33.3% 16
1997 12 7 58.3% 4 33.3% 32 *
1993 9 5 55.6% 3 33.3% 32 *
1991 12 5 41.7% 4 33.3% 1 *
2016 13 7 53.8% 4 30.8% 16
2006 13 6 46.2% 4 30.8% 16 *
2014 13 5 38.5% 4 30.8% 64
2004 11 7 63.6% 3 27.3% 4 *
1985 11 5 45.5% 3 27.3% 32
2008 12 7 58.3% 3 25.0% 32 *
2002 12 6 50.0% 3 25.0% 16 *
2003 8 4 50.0% 2 25.0% 16 *
2015 12 6 50.0% 3 25.0% 1
2012 13 4 30.8% 3 23.1% 64 *
2018 14 5 35.7% 3 21.4% 8
1996 11 4 36.4% 2 18.2% 64
1986 13 6 46.2% 2 15.4% 2 *
2013 13 5 38.5% 2 15.4% 8 *
1994 7 3 42.9% 1 14.3% 2
2007 14 4 28.6% 1 7.1% 64 *
1984 14 4 28.6% 1 7.1% 32

Again, this year's team is fourth in the past 35 years (this time behind 1998, 1988, and 1989). And again this year's team is in good company: of the eight teams which won 50% or more of their Nov/Dec games by 30+ points we have six teams that got at least to the Elite Eight (75%), five Final Four teams (62.5%), and three champions (37.5%). Though unlike the 20+ win table, the teams at the bottom here did OK: of the 12 teams which won 25% or fewer of their Nov/Dec games by 30+ points, five teams got at least to the Elite Eight (41.7%), three teams reached the championship game (25%), and one won it all (8.3%), although three of the 12 were first-round losers (25%).

Finally, as Brevity surmised, three of the top four teams in this table (not including this year) were teams on which Shane Battier played.