Key takeaways from Maui 2018

[scottdude8]

I thought it might be useful for us to have a thread dedicated to our overall takeaways from the entire Maui tournament as opposed to having to look through the individual game-threads (I did something similar following the Canada Tour). I'll get things started here, focusing on some of the less obvious (we all know that R.J. is quite a good basketball player, Zion is quite athletic, etc.), but perhaps very important, things about this team I learned from this week.

1) This is a deeper team than our recent "one-and-done" driven teams. Maui showed that K is treating Jack like a sixth starter, and giving him minutes accordingly. It also showed he's more than comfortable playing Javin for long periods when the matchup dictates it. That's gives us 7 men that could conceivably play 20 minutes a game, which we haven't had in the last few years, where the seventh man off the bench (and sometimes the sixth) were called upon for spot-duty due to foul trouble or 10-15 minutes a game at most. It also was encouraging to see AOC, Goldwire, and even Vrank get minutes in real games (obviously not as much last night, but against both San Diego State and Auburn). While those three won't get 15-20 minutes a game like Javin and Alex there will definitely be games where they'll be needed, and it seems K is confident enough in them to give them 5-10 minutes in such games.

2) Marques has taken a major step forward, but his contributions are also going to be matchup dependent. There will be games this year that having Marques as a true center will be crucial. I can see UNC, given Roy's stubborn adherence to playing two bigs, as one of those matchups... another, way down the line, could be a potential NCAA Tourney matchup with a team like Wisconsin (for those who haven't seen him, Ethan Happ is fantastic). But, in games like last night where the opponent doesn't have a true center or has one that can stretch the floor, Marques becomes a defensive liability in pick-and-roll. I thought it was very interesting that K continued to play Marques for a significant stretch even after it was apparent that Gonzaga was keying on this matchup: it read to me either as A) K challenging Marques to improve his play in that regard or B) K wanting to make sure he kept Marques engaged after his fantastic performance against Auburn. My prediction is that Marques' playing time will fluctuate wildly from game to game this year depending on the matchup, and whether or not he can handle that mentally and emotionally could be a key to this team taking the next step.

3) Despite the performance in the first half last night, I think this team is a level above previous one-and-done teams on the defensive end. Yes, last night exposed some defensive flaws, but I think that, unlike the last few years (even going back to the 2015 title team a bit) this team is equipped to address them. Tre has lived up to the billing as an elite on ball defender (he's no Zavier Simpson, and yes I had to get in my Michigan reference, but he's still doing pretty darn well), and that should only improve throughout the year. The ability to switch 1-4 is something else we've lacked the last few years and given K's desire to play aggressive man defense is something that can't be overvalued. Marques and Zion have also shown shot blocking ability that we knew they potentially had given their length and athleticism, but we weren't sure if it would manifest. All those things are pieces that K can build upon that weren't necessarily there in the past, so there is legitimate reason to be optimistic that this team will develop into a good, and potentially great, defensive team.

4) Our 3 point shooting isn't as bad as we feared, but isn't as good as we hoped. Despite last night it's clear that Cam is a deadeye three-point shooter. Jack has also shown immense improvement in this regard and can be relied upon to hit open corner 3s. AOC is still AOC... he'll be streaky but can be a microwave off the bench at some points. I think that's better than the doom and gloom some of us predicted going into this season. That said, Tre is an average 3-point shooter, and R.J. and Zion still need to improve (their early season shooting came down to earth). I think it's fair to say 3 point shooting will be a weakness, but it isn't going to be the debilitating weakness many feared.

5) The same applies to the foul line. R.J. had his struggles at the foul line but it seems like that will improve. Tre and Cam seem reliable there, as does Jack. Javin showed significant improvement form the line. Zion is hit or miss. That isn't an ideal situation (it'll definitely make some games closer down the stretch then they should be), but it again isn't the worst-case scenario many feared going into the year.

6) These guys have heart. Lost in the Auburn game was that the Tigers pushed back on us multiple times in the second half, but this team always found an answer. Coming back from 16 down against arguably the best Gonzaga team in history (including their national runner up team from a few years ago) is no small feat, even if it ended in an L. This team will never be out of a game this year, and seems to feed off of each other and the energy that the highlight plays from R.J. and Zion can provide. It's going to be a fun year.

[Rich]

5) The same applies to the foul line. R.J. had his struggles at the foul line but it seems like that will improve. Tre and Cam seem reliable there, as does Jack. Javin showed significant improvement form the line. Zion is hit or miss. That isn't an ideal situation (it'll definitely make some games closer down the stretch then they should be), but it again isn't the worst-case scenario many feared going into the year.

I'm running out the door and don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe our free throw shooting in the game against the Zags was much better than the previous 2 games.

[scottdude8]

I'm running out the door and don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe our free throw shooting in the game against the Zags was much better than the previous 2 games.

I believe so as well.

[jv001]

I'm running out the door and don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe our free throw shooting in the game against the Zags was much better than the previous 2 games.

20-26 at 77%. Yes much better. Cam at 94% ytd, Jack 78%, Zion 69% Javin 67%. Then RJ 62%, Tre 60%, Marques 50% and Alex has not shot a FT. GoDuke!

[DavidBenAkiva]

Great write-up, scottdude! This captures a lot of my thoughts as well.


The next morning, I am not upset with how the game ended or Duke's performance in Maui. Who would have thought that, on the third day of games, Gonzaga would shoot 70% on a lot of jump shots in the first half? If that is what it takes to beat Duke, good luck to everyone else. Hats off to the Bulldogs for being on fire for the first 20 minutes after only 18 hours of rest. It's clear from the all the yelling and woofing that they viewed this game as the biggest game most of the team has ever played (with the exception of Josh Perkins, who played in the National Title game a couple of years ago). It was their Super Bowl.


I completely agree with the analysis you have about Marques. It should be no surprise that his best games this season were against two SEC schools that preferred to play with two bigs that preferred that liked to camp out near the basket. When he was forced to come out to the perimeter and guard pick and roll and ball screens, he exposed Zion and the rest of the team to far too man open looks. I think he'll be pretty good against Indiana, who has more traditional big men. Their lead guard, Romeo Langford, is having a Trevon Duval-esque experience from 3 so far this season, shooting 20% from three. He's a really good scorer that wants to get to the rim. He might find the long arms of Marques and Zion greeting him there.


It's going to take an elite defensive team to disrupt what Duke does. Even though Gonzaga was able to stifle Duke in the final 90 seconds of the game, the team still put up 1.21 points per possession against what may be the best team in the country. This team can score. And they have the makeup to defend at a fairly high level as well. I'm excited to see if they can put it all together over the next 3 months.

[Kedsy]

K is treating Jack like a sixth starter, and giving him minutes accordingly.

This may sound crazy, but so far this season Jack White is reminding me of the sophomore version of Luke Maye. Both lightly regarded recruits, not so athletic but more athletic than they look, who came off the bench, played strong minutes, had similar size and similar stats, and continued to surprise -- so much so that you kinda can't look at it at a surprise anymore. It's only six games, so obviously Jack will need to continue this to merit the comparison (and sophomore Luke Maye's performance wasn't anywhere near his all-ACC junior season), but sophomore Luke Maye was a key contributor on a national championship team.

We can hope, anyway.


That's gives us 7 men that could conceivably play 20 minutes a game, which we haven't had in the last few years, where the seventh man off the bench (and sometimes the sixth) were called upon for spot-duty due to foul trouble or 10-15 minutes a game at most.

So far, we've played two non-blowouts, and in those two games the 7th man has played 10 minutes and 15 minutes. Even against Army the 7th man played 12 minutes and against Kentucky the 7th man played 11 minutes. Sounds like exactly what you described as what we've done the last few years.

We haven't seen any evidence that would suggest it'll be different this year in non-blowouts after January 1.


It also was encouraging to see AOC, Goldwire, and even Vrank get minutes in real games (obviously not as much last night, but against both San Diego State and Auburn). While those three won't get 15-20 minutes a game like Javin and Alex there will definitely be games where they'll be needed, and it seems K is confident enough in them to give them 5-10 minutes in such games.

I assume in the bolded you meant "Javin and Jack"?

As for K showing he'd be willing to play anyone outside the top seven for 5 to 10 minutes in a game that matters, so far we've played two games with final margins less than 20 points, and in those two games our players outside the top seven in the rotation played a total of 10 minutes: Alex played 3 minutes in each game and Jordan G played 3 minutes and 1 minute. Again, I don't think we've seen any evidence that K is willing to play his 8th, 9th, or 10th guys anything more than spot minutes in tight games against good opponents.

Having said all that, I guess it's possible that K will play his 7th man more than 10 to 15 minutes and might occasionally play his 8th, 9th, and/or 10th man for 5 to 10 minutes (though I'll be surprised if either of those things happen). I mean, they say anything's possible. But those things certainly aren't anything we can take away from what happened in Maui.


3) Despite the performance in the first half last night, I think this team is a level above previous one-and-done teams on the defensive end. Yes, last night exposed some defensive flaws, but I think that, unlike the last few years (even going back to the 2015 title team a bit) this team is equipped to address them. Tre has lived up to the billing as an elite on ball defender (he's no Zavier Simpson, and yes I had to get in my Michigan reference, but he's still doing pretty darn well), and that should only improve throughout the year. The ability to switch 1-4 is something else we've lacked the last few years and given K's desire to play aggressive man defense is something that can't be overvalued. Marques and Zion have also shown shot blocking ability that we knew they potentially had given their length and athleticism, but we weren't sure if it would manifest. All those things are pieces that K can build upon that weren't necessarily there in the past, so there is legitimate reason to be optimistic that this team will develop into a good, and potentially great, defensive team.

I agree with all this. I believe last night's defensive performance was probably an aberration.


Despite last night it's clear that Cam is a deadeye three-point shooter.

Cam shot 50% from three last night.


That said, Tre is an average 3-point shooter

His form doesn't look that great and he's shooting 60% from the free throw line, but Tre is currently shooting 55% from three-point range (on just under 2 three-attempts per game). Not sure whether we can say he's average, below-average, or above-average at this point.


Tre and Cam seem reliable there, as does Jack. Javin showed significant improvement form the line.

Tre is shooting 60% from the line, and a lot of his misses have been clunkers. Based on performance so far, I don't think we can say he seems reliable on FTs.

And I don't know about his form, but Javin is hitting 67% from the line so far on not so many attempts; it's an improvement over the past but (a) it's still not that good; and (b) not enough attempts to show it's not a fluke. For example, if he'd missed just one shot that he made, he'd be shooting 58% from the line. Put another way, if we're counting on Javin to hit FTs, I'm a little worried.


It's going to be a fun year.

I can sign on to this.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This may sound crazy, but so far this season Jack White is reminding me of the sophomore version of Luke Maye.

Tre is shooting 60% from the line, and a lot of his misses have been clunkers. Based on performance so far, I don't think we can say he seems reliable on FTs.
.

I don't think the Jack/Luke analogy is crazy at all. I've had the same thought flash through my mind.

And the one quintessential point guard trait that Tre seems weak on is the foul line. PG is one of those positions you need to be a really good foul shooter. That said, he seems to have all the rest...great assist ratio, can guard a quick opponent with ball pressure, and a leadership personality, totally unselfish.

I also agree with all 5 points made in the first post from scottdude8

[Saratoga2]

I thought it might be useful for us to have a thread dedicated to our overall takeaways from the entire Maui tournament as opposed to having to look through the individual game-threads (I did something similar following the Canada Tour). I'll get things started here, focusing on some of the less obvious (we all know that R.J. is quite a good basketball player, Zion is quite athletic, etc.), but perhaps very important, things about this team I learned from this week.

1) This is a deeper team than our recent "one-and-done" driven teams. Maui showed that K is treating Jack like a sixth starter, and giving him minutes accordingly. It also showed he's more than comfortable playing Javin for long periods when the matchup dictates it. That's gives us 7 men that could conceivably play 20 minutes a game, which we haven't had in the last few years, where the seventh man off the bench (and sometimes the sixth) were called upon for spot-duty due to foul trouble or 10-15 minutes a game at most. It also was encouraging to see AOC, Goldwire, and even Vrank get minutes in real games (obviously not as much last night, but against both San Diego State and Auburn). While those three won't get 15-20 minutes a game like Javin and Alex there will definitely be games where they'll be needed, and it seems K is confident enough in them to give them 5-10 minutes in such games.

2) Marques has taken a major step forward, but his contributions are also going to be matchup dependent. There will be games this year that having Marques as a true center will be crucial. I can see UNC, given Roy's stubborn adherence to playing two bigs, as one of those matchups... another, way down the line, could be a potential NCAA Tourney matchup with a team like Wisconsin (for those who haven't seen him, Ethan Happ is fantastic). But, in games like last night where the opponent doesn't have a true center or has one that can stretch the floor, Marques becomes a defensive liability in pick-and-roll. I thought it was very interesting that K continued to play Marques for a significant stretch even after it was apparent that Gonzaga was keying on this matchup: it read to me either as A) K challenging Marques to improve his play in that regard or B) K wanting to make sure he kept Marques engaged after his fantastic performance against Auburn. My prediction is that Marques' playing time will fluctuate wildly from game to game this year depending on the matchup, and whether or not he can handle that mentally and emotionally could be a key to this team taking the next step.

3) Despite the performance in the first half last night, I think this team is a level above previous one-and-done teams on the defensive end. Yes, last night exposed some defensive flaws, but I think that, unlike the last few years (even going back to the 2015 title team a bit) this team is equipped to address them. Tre has lived up to the billing as an elite on ball defender (he's no Zavier Simpson, and yes I had to get in my Michigan reference, but he's still doing pretty darn well), and that should only improve throughout the year. The ability to switch 1-4 is something else we've lacked the last few years and given K's desire to play aggressive man defense is something that can't be overvalued. Marques and Zion have also shown shot blocking ability that we knew they potentially had given their length and athleticism, but we weren't sure if it would manifest. All those things are pieces that K can build upon that weren't necessarily there in the past, so there is legitimate reason to be optimistic that this team will develop into a good, and potentially great, defensive team.

4) Our 3 point shooting isn't as bad as we feared, but isn't as good as we hoped. Despite last night it's clear that Cam is a deadeye three-point shooter. Jack has also shown immense improvement in this regard and can be relied upon to hit open corner 3s. AOC is still AOC... he'll be streaky but can be a microwave off the bench at some points. I think that's better than the doom and gloom some of us predicted going into this season. That said, Tre is an average 3-point shooter, and R.J. and Zion still need to improve (their early season shooting came down to earth). I think it's fair to say 3 point shooting will be a weakness, but it isn't going to be the debilitating weakness many feared.

5) The same applies to the foul line. R.J. had his struggles at the foul line but it seems like that will improve. Tre and Cam seem reliable there, as does Jack. Javin showed significant improvement form the line. Zion is hit or miss. That isn't an ideal situation (it'll definitely make some games closer down the stretch then they should be), but it again isn't the worst-case scenario many feared going into the year.

6) These guys have heart. Lost in the Auburn game was that the Tigers pushed back on us multiple times in the second half, but this team always found an answer. Coming back from 16 down against arguably the best Gonzaga team in history (including their national runner up team from a few years ago) is no small feat, even if it ended in an L. This team will never be out of a game this year, and seems to feed off of each other and the energy that the highlight plays from R.J. and Zion can provide. It's going to be a fun year.

Point 1: Jack is playing very well and is getting extra time because Cam is getting into early foul trouble. When Cam learns to defend without fouling, will it cut into Jacks time?

Point 2: Coach K may also want to give Marques significan time because Javin has had a high foul rate. Can Javin play for 30 minutes without fouling out of the game? Also when Marques moved out to guard a big on the perimeter (he was slow in doing so), the freshman wings didn't rotate in to cover breaks to the basket, so part of the problem lay with their inexperience. Something that might be the subject of teaching moments.

Point 3: I was pleasantly surprised by Tre's play. Not only is he a very competent ball handler who directs the offense, and an on-ball defensive player who is getting that job done, but his scoring ability has shown itself as well. He slashed to the basket and made floaters. His offense is a plus for this team.

Point 4: I think the verdict is still out on 3 point shooting. Cam has the length and shot to be a big time 3 point shooter. After him Jack is more of a 3 point set shooter, who needs someone to drive and dish to give him enough time to get his shot off from the corner. To me, AOC remains an enigma. Clearly coach K has issues with his defensive contribution and has said so. AOC is a very good athlete with quickness, hops, handle and energy. He also has a very good shot. My concern is he shows little confidence in getting open and treats the ball like a hot potato. Will this kid ever test the defense and try to get open and get his shot off or will he continue to look like a kid with little confidence?

Point 5: Foul shooting is an important part of the game for RJ, Tre and Zion. All three are likely to be involved in plays where they get fouled at a high rate. These are also the 3 players who could show an improvement. Zion did last night, Tre is erratic and RJ seems to be a so-so shooter at this point. Maybe further work will improve their perfromance from the line and we need that.

[scottdude8]

Glad to see this got a conversation started! Kedsy did indeed catch a Javin/Alex typo, haha. I’m also surprised that Tre’s FT percentage was that low... I hadn’t looked specifically at his stats so I may have been projecting some Tyus onto him in that regard! His FT shooting is probably a bit less concerning than R.J. and Zion considering how he plays, though... he’s not gonna get fouled as often shooting his beautiful floaters as the other two will attacking the rim. I’m also surprised that Javin hasn’t had more minutes, it certainly seemed like more aesthetically, haha. Normally I triple check my stats so I’m disappointed in myself on those two mistakes! I will say that despite some exaggeration on my part I do think the bench is deeper than it has been. That isn’t saying much, obviously. But I would predict that we’ll have more games this year where 8 or 9 guys see 3+ minutes of action than we have the last few seasons based on what I’ve seen thus far.

[TruBlu]

The team does not seem to be sharing the ball and looking for the pass to open cutters or shooters as earlier in the season. The following is our assist totals in each of our games, beginning with Kentucky:

Kentucky - 22; Army - 24; EMU - 23; SDSU - 12; AU - 12; Gonz - 9

While the first 3 games were against relatively weak teams (snicker, snicker), my 20-20 eye test says that there is too much one-on-one/one-on two offensive tendencies. Kick outs to open shooters or cutting players seems to have gone somewhat to the wayside.

On a positive note, I really liked the fire displayed in the comeback, even if the execution wasn’t always perfect.

[JayZee]

I think the biggest difference with that this year K has so much flexibility in sub patterns give the interchangeability of the players.

Jack is basically like Dunleavy in 2001. He can and will sub for literally anyone, from Bolden to Tre, and we will still have a potent, balanced lineup on the floor.

Jav is not as flexible, as I don't see him and Marques on the floor together often, or at all. But even if both Jav and Marques are in foul trouble, we can just slide Zion to the 5.

For those of you that pay for KenPom he has a cool most frequent lineup feature. Not sure when he added it.

[UrinalCake]

I will add to the list of takeaways:

Jack White is our best defender

Which is not something I would have ever predicted coming into the season. He guarded Hachimura straight up several times and did reasonably well. That may sound crazy to say when Hachimura had such a dominant game, but in watching those one-on-one matchups Jack did managed to either stop the shot or force a difficult shot on several occasions. And he wasn't getting flat-out beat, forcing help defenders to come which causes the whole defense to break down. Jack also rebounds exceptionally well, often emerging from a group of larger players with the ball.

The freshmen have the athleticism and length to be good defenders, and I have no doubt that they will improve with time and reps, but as of today Jack is going to be guarding the other team's best player. Javin also has the tools to be a good defender, but he simply fouls too much. One play in particular that stands out is midway through the second half, Jack is guarding Hachimura and forces him into a bad shot. The rebound comes off and there's a scramble for the loose ball and Jack runs over and bumps into Hachimura, drawing a foul. Jack looked so pissed that he had done his job only to have Javin waste the excellent defensive play.

[jv001]

I will add to the list of takeaways:

Jack White is our best defender

Which is not something I would have ever predicted coming into the season. He guarded Hachimura straight up several times and did reasonably well. That may sound crazy to say when Hachimura had such a dominant game, but in watching those one-on-one matchups Jack did managed to either stop the shot or force a difficult shot on several occasions. And he wasn't getting flat-out beat, forcing help defenders to come which causes the whole defense to break down. Jack also rebounds exceptionally well, often emerging from a group of larger players with the ball.

The freshmen have the athleticism and length to be good defenders, and I have no doubt that they will improve with time and reps, but as of today Jack is going to be guarding the other team's best player. Javin also has the tools to be a good defender, but he simply fouls too much. One play in particular that stands out is midway through the second half, Jack is guarding Hachimura and forces him into a bad shot. The rebound comes off and there's a scramble for the loose ball and Jack runs over and bumps into Hachimura, drawing a foul. Jack looked so pissed that he had done his job only to have Javin waste the excellent defensive play.

I agree that it seems Jack is our best defender and I guess it's to be expected because he's a junior that's played in Duke's man2man defense for 3 years now. When I compare him with Javin who has the same amount of time playing Duke defense, I see some differences. Jack seems more on balance when he's moving on both defense and offense. Javin sometimes looks like he's moving with his feet too close together and off balance. Javin seems to be thinking too much and not using his wonderful natural ability. So, could it be that Javin has not gotten "it" yet and Jack has? I want to see him play naturally without putting pressure on himself. He may never be a great outside shooter but he can be a good inside scorer. I've seen him pass up too many easy inside baskets. That has to come from lack of confidence. Oh, and quit fouling so much. GoDuke!

[westwall]

If anyone becomes aware of a scheduled replay of the Gonzaga game, I would appreciate a PM. Would like to record it. Thanks!