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View Full Version : MBB: Gonzaga 89, Duke 87 Post-Game Thread



JBDuke
11-21-2018, 07:12 PM
Put your post-game thoughts here.

SCMatt33
11-21-2018, 07:13 PM
Good job to hang in there, but Barrett got way too selfish at the end. Driving into traffic every time. Youth showed throughout the game, but really showed at the end

Philadukie
11-21-2018, 07:14 PM
Put your post-game thoughts here.

Duke (or rather Barrett) missed on the last five possessions. That hurt. And their early three point shooting was un-unearthly.

Good comeback though. Will look forward to seeing Kedsy’s stats.

WHOneedsSOX
11-21-2018, 07:14 PM
Not Duke's best game. Lots of small mistakes.

Barrett should've attacked way before 5 seconds left. Gives Zion no time for an offensive rebound.

Proud of the way they battled back but they lost a very winnable game. Down 2 and they go 0-7 with a chance to tie it.

OldPhiKap
11-21-2018, 07:14 PM
Lots of lessons for the coaches to break down.

Always like to win, but this is still a steppingstone game to getting better.

Congrats to the Zags!

DukieInBrasil
11-21-2018, 07:15 PM
too much selfishness from RJ, and not enough coaching from K. pretty lethal combo in a winnable game.
great energy to come all the way back from down 14 (or more?), but RJ just couldn't let anybody else play the game with him. And K refused to make the team get the ball away from him.

Ballboy1998
11-21-2018, 07:15 PM
I know he puts up points (on a ridiculously high volume of shots) but I hate watching RJ Barrett on offense. He takes so many terrible shots and never ever passes off of drives. Hopefully I’ll eat my words later in the season, because it kind of reminds me of how I felt about Tatum for the first part of his freshman season and he rounded it out well by the second half of the year.

Lots of good tape for the guys and good of them to fight back. Wish we had Tre or Zion getting consequential touches at the end though.

UrinalCake
11-21-2018, 07:15 PM
Proud of how the team came back after playing so poorly for 30 minutes. Offense needs to be more creative. Too much driving right into defenders and forcing things. Gonzaga is legit and hit a lot of contested shots until they seemed to run out of gas.

JD for Three!
11-21-2018, 07:15 PM
We got bupkes for calls from the refs at that end. Give me a rematch in March and we smoke them!

And yet another Jay Bilas crap out against Duke.

Billy Dat
11-21-2018, 07:15 PM
Good job to hang in there, but Barrett got way too selfish at the end. Driving into traffic every time. Youth showed throughout the game, but really showed at the end

K shoulda called Z’s number, let him drive and playmake.

Great comeback. Gonzaga is good. Happy Thanksgiving.

richmclean
11-21-2018, 07:16 PM
Lost the game on Defense folks. Give up 89 points and you blame the last play? Seriously misguided analysis.

We gave up 85 to UK and nobody blinked.

This is an early freshman dominated team that is poor on defense. We’ve taken this same class the past few years.

loran16
11-21-2018, 07:16 PM
Ya know, I get the Tre-RJ-Zion-White-Javin lineup was working, but when you need points you need to put Cam in for Javin quicker than the last 45 seconds. Three pointers had to be open when the Zags D was just pack the paint and hope someone is not intelligent enough not to drive straight into five bodies.

Welp.

fuse
11-21-2018, 07:16 PM
Not fair view- two blown dunks the difference.

I love the heart and fight to make it a game at the end.

I can’t believe the coaching staff called for 3 ISOs for RJ to end the game.
There was at least one kickout to Cam (sequence one or two) that would have been a better decision.

No more undefeated or beat NBA team talk.

Long season ahead- kinda bummed for K that he didn’t keep his perfect record in Maui.

I hope this is the kind of bitter taste that can motivate and propel towards an NCAA championship.

Let’s Go Duke!

duke96
11-21-2018, 07:16 PM
Great comeback and very fun game to watch.

But can anyone please explain how the best strategy we could come up with the last 3 possessions with the game on the line is for RJ to drive against a great defender who is taller? That was like Trajan Langdon x 3.

We could try running a play, maybe once?

I’m baffled

InSpades
11-21-2018, 07:16 PM
Tough loss. Gonzaga played about 34 minutes of really great basketball and then tried to let us back in.

Credit to the team for closing the gap.

RJ was not the guy to give the ball to on like 5 straight possessions. He never passes after he starts his drive and he's not a very efficient scorer (and even if he got fouled, he probably wouldn't make both).

Tre had a great game. Zion was unstoppable at times. Give them a chance to make something happen.

RJ needs to realize that anyone can score 20 if they take 25 shots. To be a great player you need to score 20 and take 15. He's trying to do too much out there but he'll learn.

Good game. Will learn a lot from that one.

WHOneedsSOX
11-21-2018, 07:17 PM
I know he puts up points (on a ridiculously high volume of shots) but I hate watching RJ Barrett on offense. He takes so many terrible shots and never ever passes off of drives. Hopefully I’ll eat my words later in the season, because it kind of reminds me of how I felt about Tatum for the first part of his freshman season and he rounded it out well by the second half of the year.

Lots of good tape for the guys and good of them to fight back. Wish we had Tre or Zion getting consequential touches at the end though.

Barrett will adjust. No one was ever able to stop these guys in high school so they never had to pass. He'll learn to find his teammates and they'll learn to move with him as the season goes on.

Troublemaker
11-21-2018, 07:17 PM
Great comeback, tough loss. I'm not even that upset because this was the first time this season we've played a well-oiled machine on offense with high basketball IQ / passing and where each individual player knows exactly where his teammates will be. Gonzaga also shot the lights out from outside, to boot. It took awhile for our team to be able to adjust to the well-oiled machine, but we slowly got it. We played much worse than them to start, then we played them even for awhile, and then eventually we played better than them. If this game lasted 5 more minutes... but alas...

I'm disappointed for RJ but he's going to learn from this and have many clutch moments for us in the future.

proelitedota
11-21-2018, 07:17 PM
This might be RJ's NC State game.

Have to think K was letting them figure it out in the end.

Dub
11-21-2018, 07:17 PM
Loved the fight! We weren’t going undefeated and we played a gritty game to work our way back into it. RJ has cajones. Zion is a man among boys. Tre looked like Tyus during our championship run. Would’ve liked to see Reddish in there more but he was a bit off. Wish Jack would’ve made the chippie and I wish Javin had more coordination but we’ll bounce back for sure. I’m optimistic. :)

bigperm13
11-21-2018, 07:17 PM
Great will in the comeback but total crap at the end. Same play over and over and over. Not getting Zion the ball at the end was plain ignorant.

6th Man
11-21-2018, 07:19 PM
I don’t understand why Zion didn’t get one shot to drive to the basket. He finishes so much better than Barrett. A loss hopefully kills the ridiculous hype and gets the focus back. Selfish ball is the only thing that can kill this season. We saw it at the end. Good comeback. At least there is fight.

subzero02
11-21-2018, 07:19 PM
Good job to hang in there, but Barrett got way too selfish at the end. Driving into traffic every time. Youth showed throughout the game, but really showed at the end

Questionable offensive execution down the stretch. I would've liked to have seen Jones attempt to break down the offense during one of those last few plays. I was really hoping for a drive and kickout to Cam for a 3. We were going to lose in Maui at some point, it sux that it happened this way. As a positive, we have never won both the Maui and national title in the same season, so maybe this loss bodes well for greater rewards down the road. Our youth showed today but we gained some highly valuable experience. Overall a very productive trip that moves us closer to our ultimate.

Bluegrassdevil1
11-21-2018, 07:19 PM
Decision making was always going to have ebbs and flows with this team, but, yeesh do I know nothing about projecting the NBA lottery, because I did not see the consensus number one choice in those forty minutes.

Disappointing to lose a close one to a good team, while playing awful basketball.

DoWorkDukie
11-21-2018, 07:19 PM
We have a lot of room to grow. Defensively, we weren't good until it counted.

RJ made a ton of great plays in the game. He was awesome in transition and had a great And-1 over Hachimuri to keep us clawing back.
Zion is a much better halfcourt player IMO, and I'd rather give some of his shots to Tre or Zion to keep the defense honest. Or get us some action through some dribble handoffs.

The 1 on 1 iso was SO predictable- everyone on Gonzaga knew RJ was going to attempt to score on 4 of them. Really frustrating, but I'm glad our guys fought back and that doesn't take away from some of the quality plays RJ made.

The biggest problem right now is our inability to manufcature open 3 point looks. I think this is the fault of the offense- give RJ, Cam, or even Tre some stand-still 3 point shots. Gonzaga had scores of them that helped them build their lead.

JD for Three!
11-21-2018, 07:19 PM
Just remember that we lost to a team that shot lights out from three in the first half. Granted, perimeter D can help with that, but they still were shooting out of their [rear ends]

Bob Green
11-21-2018, 07:20 PM
Hats off to Gonzaga on a great win they are a really talented team. A great comeback for the good guys but we came up short. The big takeaway for me is there is no quit in these guys. They fought hard to the bitter end which counts a lot in my book.

DoWorkDukie
11-21-2018, 07:20 PM
I don’t understand why Zion didn’t get one shot to drive to the basket. He finishes so much better than Barrett. A loss hopefully kills the ridiculous hype and gets the focus back. Selfish ball is the only thing that can kill this season. We saw it at the end. Good comeback. At least there is fight.

Definitely. RJ is really good in transition but Zion is a better halfcourt driver and finisher. Have RJ and Zion play off eachother with Zion creating, because RJ & Cam are good catch and shoot 3 pt shooters.

WHOneedsSOX
11-21-2018, 07:20 PM
Tre can't shoot like Tyus could but man that guy has the balls his brother has. Would've liked to see him go 1 on 1 to tie the game at the end. He has a floater needed to score before Hachimura and Clark are able to block it.

uh_no
11-21-2018, 07:21 PM
they still were shooting out of their as$es

well, when they're all wide open....

utahdevil
11-21-2018, 07:21 PM
So many turning points and contours in a game like this one, but for me the biggest series was when RJ missed the and-1 free throw that could have pulled Duke to within 1 and then Duke gave up the 3-pt play on the other end. Oh, and Zion didn't touch the ball after scoring the little jumper when Gonzaga went zone. Good loss though. Gonzaga is a very good team. I think the world of Mark Few. If we have to lose to someone like this, I'd prefer it be the Zags.

duke4ever19
11-21-2018, 07:21 PM
No more undefeated or beat NBA team talk.


I was so ready for that to end. It needed to end. I knew the losses were going to come and even Coach K said in last night's postgame presser that "We will get beat" because the ACC is no joke.

DukieInBrasil
11-21-2018, 07:21 PM
Loved the fight! We weren’t going undefeated and we played a gritty game to work our way back into it. RJ has cojones. Zion is a man among boys. Tre looked like Tyus during our championship run. Would’ve liked to see Reddish in there more but he was a bit off. Wish Jack would’ve made the chippie and I wish Javin had more coordination but we’ll bounce back for sure. I’m optimistic. :)

RJ may have cojones but he still ended up shooting poorly, again, because he doesn't recognize that other people are tall too. and good.


Great will in the comeback but total crap at the end. Same play over and over and over. Not getting Zion the ball at the end was plain ignorant.

i agree, that's entirely K's fault.

DoWorkDukie
11-21-2018, 07:22 PM
Just remember that we lost to a team that shot lights out from three in the first half. Granted, perimeter D can help with that, but they still were shooting out of their as$es

Meh- it's true, but in a one game tournament in CBB, you have to be able to somehow counter that. We had no answer to the zags perimeter shooting, and they actually generated a ton of open looks. I think there were about 3 WTF 3 pointers, but again, we've got to find a way to hang around.

We weren't down 16 because the Zags were shooting out of their minds. We played matador defense, had no answer to Hachimura, and couldn't get out in transition.

thedukelamere
11-21-2018, 07:22 PM
So that 4 point “Tre dunk into Zag run out” DID end up costing us... Still really proud of the fight to claw our way back. Javin(!?!?) hit some huge free throws that he usually might miss that we’re huge, and we were still in a position to win at the end. I would have much rather had a RJ 3 with 5 on the clock than the most predictable drive I’ve seen in a while.

cbarry
11-21-2018, 07:22 PM
Totally agree. I’m already tired of RJ “hero ball”. There are 4 other players on the court. PASS the ball once in awhile. 2 players were wide open on the last play. RJ was triple teamed because the Zags knew RJ is the black hole of basketball.


I know he puts up points (on a ridiculously high volume of shots) but I hate watching RJ Barrett on offense. He takes so many terrible shots and never ever passes off of drives. Hopefully I’ll eat my words later in the season, because it kind of reminds me of how I felt about Tatum for the first part of his freshman season and he rounded it out well by the second half of the year.

Lots of good tape for the guys and good of them to fight back. Wish we had Tre or Zion getting consequential touches at the end though.

CameronDuke
11-21-2018, 07:23 PM
Way to fight back. I'm not trying to pin that game down to being lost on one play but man it would be nice to have that Tre Jones missed dunk in the first half back right now. A made layup would have sufficed. He did make the banked in 3 at the buzzer to end the first half. But man, so many missed layups/dunks tonight.

kako
11-21-2018, 07:23 PM
5 thoughts...

1. Duke showed major heart coming back. Freshmen will be freshmen sometimes, and they were today at times. But when they were down I was looking for the will to win. And they showed it. I never, ever count Duke out. Because quite often there are games like today when they seem lost, but then come back to have the last shot to win. They just didn't hit it today.

2. The team was never going to be undefeated. I'm fine with the loss. They should learn some things from this loss... like blocking out when the shot goes up and weak side help.

3. Barrett was already taking major grief in the in-game thread, but not from me. He's the team's best pure scorer on drives in traffic. He got fouled on his last two drives, neither of which were called. Could he have passed? Yeah, perhaps. But I'm also OK with him taking the shots.

4. Sucks to lose the Maui. We have never seen it happen. The Zags played great, shot well overall and are a team to watch in March. But I'd rather lose this than any conference game or game in March/April.

5. Jones played really well (IMO those that want to point out his missed dunk don't get it). If he could just learn to hit the 3 consistently, he will become the team's best player.

9F

Philadukie
11-21-2018, 07:26 PM
The other thing I’ll add is that the last five offensive possessions was pretty bad TEAM basketball. Gonzaga always played as a team, where we often played like a collection of NBA talent going ISO.

K has got to get a handle on them (and mainly Barrett) doing that stuff.

We have great future pro talent, but Gonzaga was definitely the better COLLEGE TEAM today.

JD for Three!
11-21-2018, 07:27 PM
well, when they're all wide open...

Good one! Ya got me

fgb
11-21-2018, 07:27 PM
Barrett will adjust. No one was ever able to stop these guys in high school so they never had to pass. He'll learn to find his teammates and they'll learn to move with him as the season goes on.

I don't know... Zion, Tre, and cam seen to understand how to pass.

OZZIE4DUKE
11-21-2018, 07:27 PM
Lot of teachable moments from this game. Deep down, K is smiling inside. Better to get this loss in November than March.

39-1, baby! 39-1! LGD GTHc!

simplyluvin
11-21-2018, 07:28 PM
Lost to a better team today, but love the fight. Better defense and more dribble penetration in the second half...I think that is going to be our game. Played young for about 32 minutes but picked it up. I also think Gonzaga got tired.

The teams the last two years also had a penchant for comebacks from big defecits, but this team has a better feel about it. Hoping our freshmen will learn to fight every play. Rebounding was also an issue, but tha was more of an effort thing.

DoWorkDukie
11-21-2018, 07:28 PM
Tre can't shoot like Tyus could but man that guy has the balls his brother has. Would've liked to see him go 1 on 1 to tie the game at the end. He has a floater needed to score before Hachimura and Clark are able to block it.

Agreed- Tre has balls and we should run pick and rolls for him more. We need to execute pick and pops better.

Old Dukie
11-21-2018, 07:29 PM
Hachimura was the difference....but this team has to play more zone to lessen the impact of guys like him. Duke looked lost and totally inadequate on defense. They showed heart....but little effort on D until the end.

DoWorkDukie
11-21-2018, 07:29 PM
I don't know... Zion, Tre, and cam seen to understand how to pass.

Zion and Tre, sometimes Cam, tend to also take higher percentage shots overall.

azzefkram
11-21-2018, 07:29 PM
Maybe I shouldn't have gotten that ill-advised tattoo.

Nice comeback. Sorta wished we created better opportunities at the end. I can't imagine driving 1 against 5 is a winning basketball formula. We looked young for much of the game. Gonzaga is a really good team.

WHOneedsSOX
11-21-2018, 07:29 PM
I don't know... Zion, Tre, and cam seen to understand how to pass.

Well, some guys are ahead of the curve then. Barrett passes, he just didn't the final few possessions. Remember those early preseason games he was dumping it off to Zion a lot.

ChillinDuke
11-21-2018, 07:30 PM
I thought Jack White played terrific defense when we needed it.

I thought Tre looked mostly great today.

I thought K needed to get Cam in offense for defense much earlier.

I thought the offense looked stagnant for a long time.

And I thought K was letting them see for themselves that they aren't unbeatable. Nay, there's a lot of tape to show guys that they looked pretty bad at various moments.

Time to grow.

- Chillin

DoWorkDukie
11-21-2018, 07:32 PM
5 thoughts...

1. Duke showed major heart coming back. Freshmen will be freshmen sometimes, and they were today at times. But when they were down I was looking for the will to win. And they showed it. I never, ever count Duke out. Because quite often there are games like today when they seem lost, but then come back to have the last shot to win. They just didn't hit it today.

2. The team was never going to be undefeated. I'm fine with the loss. They should learn some things from this loss... like blocking out when the shot goes up and weak side help.

3. Barrett was already taking major grief in the in-game thread, but not from me. He's the team's best pure scorer on drives in traffic. He got fouled on his last two drives, neither of which were called. Could he have passed? Yeah, perhaps. But I'm also OK with him taking the shots.

4. Sucks to lose the Maui. We have never seen it happen. The Zags played great, shot well overall and are a team to watch in March. But I'd rather lose this than any conference game or game in March/April.

5. Jones played really well (IMO those that want to point out his missed dunk don't get it). If he could just learn to hit the 3 consistently, he will become the team's best player.

9F

Believe me, I love Barrett. We're not in the game without him. But when you're taking shots that are repeatedly getting blocked, then you should adjust your strategy. A blocked or highly contested shot has little chance of going in. I'm not okay with his shot selection.

The reality is that the boys didn't seem to adjust to the inability to score on the interior. Zion is the best finisher and he struggled.

RJ, with a full head of steam, is good. But when K puts him in ISO ball situations and the entire Zags defense is ready to help over, he's not as good at 1 on 4. IMO K has to put this team in better situations offensively, because as good as RJ is, he can shoot you out of a game.

Saratoga2
11-21-2018, 07:32 PM
Exciting game and one in which our starting lineup had lots of trouble defending. Bolden was a little slow getting out and we didn't rotate in to help defense. I think we can expect that kind of thing with freshmen against an experienced and gifted team. Lots of teaching points. A missed layup when a dunk was attempted and probably other 2 point opportunities that we left on the floor with a 2 point loss, you have to wonder.

Tre did have a very good game as did Zion. Jack White did his normal thing and also was good. We made a heck of the try at the end and almost pulled it off. People here can be critical of a play here or there or a strategy that went bad but I celebrate what the kids accomplished and will continue to accomplish going forward. You can see Tre, Zion and Jack all improving. Barrett is a great talent but we have to find the best way to use him. DeLaurier also played well so a lot to be proud of. Onto the next game.

We did lack much presence from the 3 point line. Somehow we will need more from that facet of the game. Who will provide it? Cam, Jack and Alex are shooters, anyone else?

uh_no
11-21-2018, 07:32 PM
Zion and Tre, sometimes Cam, tend to also take higher percentage shots overall.

RJ bararett has a lower O-rating than delaurier. he needs to develop a conscience, and fast. It's a lot on a freshman, but he's wayyyy to good to be that inefficient.

Ian
11-21-2018, 07:32 PM
You always want to win but honestly this is probably one of those losses that helps us be better in March. The guys now know they aren't invincible, the hype will die down a bit and they can focus on getting better.

scottdude8
11-21-2018, 07:33 PM
With about 5 minutes to go in the game my wife (who, as a side note, has become a much more invested Duke fan after seeing the team play on the Canada tour!) looked at me and said, "It'd probably help this team in the long run to lose this game, wouldn't it?" I partially agreed, but given the program's historical success both in Maui and pre-season tourneys as a whole I said I'd rather us lose a different game than this one. While I still feel that way (and obviously would prefer a world where we never lose, haha), I agree with those who say this game is going to be a very teachable moment for this team.

The fact that we played objectively poorly in the first half, and Gonzaga shot the lights out, and we were still only down 8 at half shows that even in an "off day" we're going to be in almost any game we play. The heart we showed coming back from double digits down multiple times is extremely encouraging. The improved defensive effort the spurred the comeback was also a good sign, as it's something I'm sure the coaching staff can build on going forward ("this is how you need to play for 40 minutes!").

I was a little frustrated by the tendency for us to settle for one-on-ones or contested jumpers down the stretch, but that's a seemingly unavoidable side effect of youth. I think with coaching, and with this as an example to point to, that will start happening less and less as the season progresses. R.J. was the major problem in that regard today, but again, 6 games into a young season that's not a problem that's crippling. If it's still happening come ACC Tourney time then we'll have reason to worry.

All that, and R.J. still definitely got fouled on the last play. If we can take one of the top teams in the country down to the wire in an early season game where we clearly weren't playing our best, there's only room to improve from there. Today sucks, but as my wife said, we may be better in the long run for it.

porkpa
11-21-2018, 07:33 PM
R J is a great talent. He will learn. I think he is too used to carrying the load or a big part of it by himself like on Team Canada. He will learn that he has a great supporting cast. Sooner, rather than later, he will take advantage of it.

ncexnyc
11-21-2018, 07:34 PM
Somewhere in the world somebody is listening to R.E.M.'s, "The End of the World as we Know It."

Lighten up folks we got to watch a great game and there will be many more to come.

UrinalCake
11-21-2018, 07:34 PM
I was also baffled by the decision to keep Cam out of the game for so long. He was the only guy who could hit a three. I get that he had four fouls but if you don’t play him then he might as well have five fouls.

As a couple other people pointed out, Barrett’s performance was reminiscent of Tatum vs. NC State. I guess it’s good that this is happening in November rather than January, there’s plenty of time for him to learn to read the defense and recognize when the opportunities aren’t there.

We obviously have the talent level to compete for a title. Most of the issues in today’s game are fixable.

DoWorkDukie
11-21-2018, 07:35 PM
RJ is shooting 42% from the field, 32% from 3, and 65% from the FT line. With 2 other lottery picks on his team.

The coaches need to put him in better situations, and he needs to get more efficient for us to beat a good team like Gonzaga. Plenty of season ahead, but I don't see how anyone could defend his hero ball on the last 5 possessions. Just pass it, once.

KandG
11-21-2018, 07:35 PM
Just an ideal "teaching moment" game. Inexperience oozing from the young guys from the opening tip, from the way they got carved up defending the multiple screen rolls that Gonzaga threw at them, to all the offensive rebounds given up leading to easy points, to the unimaginative end game offense and really rough endgame isolations (someone let Zion touch the ball in the final minute please).

Not really going to single anyone out, just about every Duke player made bonehead mistakes or failed to communicate at one point or another, but the good thing is almost everyone managed to redeem themselves when we made the run to get back in the game. Everyone will get better from this experience, and they better, because other teams will follow the Gonzaga blueprint.

Only thing that worries me is how little outside shooting we have when Cam isn't playing -- Jack is more of a standstill shooter who can be chased off the line by athletic defenders, and obviously RJ and Zion just don't shoot reliably outside of 10-15 feet. Maybe their shooting will develop over time, the way Winslow's did. But Tre and Cam need to be more of a factor from deep over the course of the season.

Loved Tre Jones fueling our comeback and making one big shot after another. And Javin as a small ball center in the second half was a major boost -- even managed to avoid most of the silly fouls he tends to pick up in scrums, and make free throws (!).

Credit to Gonzaga, just an intelligent, well-coached team. Reminded me a little of Notre Dame in 2015 being our kryptonite. But I think we have the talent and chemistry needed to be a lot better if we take the right lessons from that good an opponent. Felt like K didn't do certain obvious things (offense-defense subs to get Cam in for more offensive possessions down the stretch, allowing so many isolations, no situational use of the zone) because he wanted to see how the kids would handle themselves with minimal intervention.

Next play. Can't wait to see how they come out for the next game after simmering on this one over the holiday weekend.

Pghdukie
11-21-2018, 07:37 PM
My thought was Reddish was of no value on defense at all. Foul trouble is one thing, but I thought K sat him down because of no hustle. When your down double digits - where was he ?

wavedukefan70s
11-21-2018, 07:39 PM
We are young didnt play good defense. But unlike other Duke freshman teams we seem to have the ability to play it.by January we will be a good defensive team no worries. We are hanging with the best in the country as we are this team has nothing but upside.im still excited. We can win a championship this year.no doubt.

rtnorthrup
11-21-2018, 07:41 PM
My thought was Reddish was of no value on defense at all. Foul trouble is one thing, but I thought K sat him down because of no hustle. When your down double digits - where was he ?

agree, plus White EARNED his minutes today. He was one of our best defenders and best rebounders. Cam didn't earn the right to be in the game for long stretches.

DoWorkDukie
11-21-2018, 07:41 PM
My thought was Reddish was of no value on defense at all. Foul trouble is one thing, but I thought K sat him down because of no hustle. When your down double digits - where was he ?

I wanted him back in, but we went on that run with Jack & DeLaurier playing great defense. Hopefully Cam can improve on that side of the ball.

I also think we should find a way to get him more 3 point attempts in games. Not sure how many he took / missed in this one, to be fair. But him in catch and shoot situations is pretty good. Would have loved for us to go back to that floppy action to get him a corner look

Old Dukie
11-21-2018, 07:42 PM
The other thing I’ll add is that the last five offensive possessions was pretty bad TEAM basketball. Gonzaga always played as a team, where we often played like a collection of NBA talent going ISO.

K has got to get a handle on them (and mainly Barrett) doing that stuff.

We have great future pro talent, but Gonzaga was definitely the better COLLEGE TEAM today.

Agree....it's up to K to get a handle on Barrett's super-hero tendencies. Reddish bears watching from an effort perspective....O'Connell playing more would help that issue.

fgb
11-21-2018, 07:46 PM
Well, some guys are ahead of the curve then. Barrett passes, he just didn't the final few possessions. Remember those early preseason games he was dumping it off to Zion a lot.

sure, but it's not uncommon for some players to pass on a blowout win, and be lauded for their unselfishness. but when the game is on the line, ego takes over.

dukelifer
11-21-2018, 07:47 PM
RJ is shooting 42% from the field, 32% from 3, and 65% from the FT line. With 2 other lottery picks on his team.

The coaches need to put him in better situations, and he needs to get more efficient for us to beat a good team like Gonzaga. Plenty of season ahead, but I don't see how anyone could defend his hero ball on the last 5 possessions. Just pass it, once.

RJ is an amazing talent but not explosive enough to make those shots against a set defense with NBA quality players. Twice Hachimura was there waiting. Zion is much more powerful- and a much better leaper in the post. I would have isolated Zion or had Barrett drive it and kick it to Reddish for a three. But then again I have 0 NCs and 0 ACC wins. It was a bad ending for sure- but at one point this looked like a 20 point loss. I hand it to the team for fighting to get back in it. Zags are very, very good. No denying they have enough talent to win it all. Duke will get better - lots of time- but they learned what to expect from an experienced team that can shoot it. Duke is far from a finished product. I like this team despite their play tonight which was young for long stretches. Disappointing but not demoralizing. Zags have games against Tenn and UNC in Dec on the road. Wow. They will be battle tested. If they get by both- they will finish the season as the number 1, number 1 seed.

Old Dukie
11-21-2018, 07:47 PM
agree, plus White EARNED his minutes today. He was one of our best defenders and best rebounders. Cam didn't earn the right to be in the game for long stretches.

Also agree...Reddish needs to pick up his intensity level BIGTIME! If not, the bench awaits....hope K uses it.

JD for Three!
11-21-2018, 07:51 PM
I would just like to see an end to the RJ bashing. It’s not called for. The young man is great.

As far as putting the ball in Zion’s hands more, he has shown tonight and last night that he can be human. I love the guy, but he can’t rip off a highlight every time he touches the ball. Again, he’s awesome, but a two-handed dunk late in the game would go in, and we are tied. I am not picking at him. It just could have happened differently. K will take care of that without taking away the awesome feel he has for the game. I hope Zion can teach Javin to go straight up with strength when he gets those rebounds down low! That would be huge!

Tre Jones - major stones. Jack White - major stones. Quien es mas macho? (Sorry,really old reference for some in the crowd.) Truly, Tre is a gamer. We are lucky to have him. Imagine him by January. He will be directing all of this other incredible talent and it will be a true offense, not just one-on-one match ups.

Glad to get the target off our back and not deal with #1. We all need to relax and understand that these guys will just get more cohesive and awesome. We as fans need to stop declaring for or losing championships in November. I expect us to lose a couple more that will be head scratchers, but we will be strong in March. Would any team like to draw us in their bracket? Just let the young men do the work to get there. They will.

I hate to lose as much as anyone else, but the team showed lots of heart with the comeback. We will only get better and better from here.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-21-2018, 07:52 PM
Lots to build on. Zags are great. Not intimidated like Auburn in the first half. Loved the fight back. May learn more from a loss, but I wanted better plays on offense in the last 90 seconds.

Furniture
11-21-2018, 07:53 PM
Tough loss for me....Duke were so close to winning that I don’t think that they should have lost. What could have gone wrong went wrong for Duke while everything or almost everything went right for Zaga.

DUKIE V(A)
11-21-2018, 08:00 PM
IMO, the primary factors in today's loss were:

1. Our seeming defensive indifference in the first half. True that the Zags shot it exceptionally well and made some excellent passes early; however, our guys were not fully committed to playing with intensity on the defensive side of the ball until late in the first half. Clearly, there is still room to grow and improve, but consistent desire and effort are going to be huge if this team is to do special things. Champions do not rely on turning it ON and OFF.
2. A failure to share the ball. Only 9 assists as a team is not going to get it done against such a high level opponent. The referees were not rewarding drives to the basket. I liked our aggression to the hoop throughout the game, but the refs were not calling contact at the basket. Perhaps better off shooting floaters and short jumpers in the lane (a la Tre down the stretch) or kicking out to open shooters.

Can't wait for Tuesday!

Go Duke!

dukelifer
11-21-2018, 08:05 PM
Lots to build on. Zags are great. Not intimidated like Auburn in the first half. Loved the fight back. May learn more from a loss, but I wanted better plays on offense in the last 90 seconds.

ESPN already starting the Zags may be the best team in America narrative. Duke is back in the pack. Could the Zags beat the Cavs?

devildeac
11-21-2018, 08:08 PM
ESPN already starting the Zags may be the best team in America narrative. Duke is back in the pack. Could the Zags beat the Cavs?

Virginia or Cleveland?

Asking for a friend...

Wildling
11-21-2018, 08:08 PM
I would just like to see an end to the RJ bashing. It’s not called for. The young man is great.
If he continues to play hero ball like he did those last 3 possessions, and get nothing out of it, you might as well get used to it.

Great game! The zags are pretty darn good! I'm looking forward to how we respond to that loss. Unfortunately isn't our schedule for the next 5 games cupcake city?

dukelifer
11-21-2018, 08:10 PM
If he continues to play hero ball like he did those last 3 possessions, and get nothing out of it, you might as well get used to it.

Great game! The zags are pretty darn good! I'm looking forward to how we respond to that loss. Unfortunately isn't our schedule for the next 5 games cupcake city?

Indiana is not a cupcake. Texas tech will give a good test. But all games at home- perhaps minus some Crazies

rsvman
11-21-2018, 08:16 PM
Meh.

Two missed dunks, lose by two points. Pretty predictable, really. Just put the damn ball into the basket.

hsheffield
11-21-2018, 08:16 PM
We just didn't have the flow in Maui. We missed so many chip shots. We had many moments, but not consistency.

The good news is that they now know they can come back from way down even if they don't have all their mojo.

They also got a chance to see that they can push through fatigue.

All in all, not the end of the world.

jv001
11-21-2018, 08:30 PM
ESPN already starting the Zags may be the best team in America narrative. Duke is back in the pack. Could the Zags beat the Cavs?

I read all the way through 4 pages with a hope no one had posted that. But alas dukelifer beat me to it.

For the game itself; I am proud of the fight that the guys showed in making a great comeback. So, hats off to the entire team.

As for the finish. Not so good. I can't put it all on Barrett because I think Coach K wanted RJ to drive to the basket in hopes of making a bucket and maybe even get the and one call. But you hardly ever see a foul called in that situation. Well not in Duke's favor. I was sort of surprised to hear the Draft guy say that Zion had gone ahead of RJ for the #1 spot in the draft. In my opinion, he was the #1 choice before this game. RJ can do a few things Zion can't but Zion can do a lot of things RJ can't do. With that in mind, I was looking for a play that featured Zion going to the basket. I believe Zion would have passed the ball if he was double teamed. RJ had 2 chances to pass the ball for a layup to Javin and he didn't. If he does not have the confidence in Javin, that's a shame. A very good set would have been a dump to Javin or a kick out to Cam for a 3. Anything but what we just saw. But like I said, great comeback. Oh, hats off to the guy that said the Zags would take advantage off the screens with Marques in the game. GoDuke!

KandG
11-21-2018, 08:30 PM
ESPN already starting the Zags may be the best team in America narrative.

Not unreasonable given the Zags didn't have Tillie, who would have given us even more fits if he had been healthy. With that said, we barely saw Cam Reddish in this game, not to mention the best versions of not just some of the players, but of the entire *team* playing as a unit. I feel good about this Duke team growing from this experience.

Interesting from ESPN Stats & Info: "Duke allowed Gonzaga to shoot 52.3%, its worst defensive field goal percentage in a game in the last two seasons". Considering how last year's team had to go to zone to overcome its defensive deficiencies, that's saying something. Plenty of room for improvement.

JD for Three!
11-21-2018, 08:32 PM
If he continues to play hero ball like he did those last 3 possessions, and get nothing out of it, you might as well get used to it.

Haven’t had a chance to watch a replay yet, but my in-real-time sense was that we weren’t running a coordinated offense that had all four others in the right space and with the same plays/options in mind. Those things come with time. We will see on the replay. If one of those shots falls, or a foul is called, we might not have the same view.

They are young. Two missed uncontested dunks. One experienced team that had years playing together and knew where teammates would/should be. We gave up lots of point blank shots - that’s generally on our bigs and our understanding of how to rotate or backfill on defense.

You may come out on the wrong end of the score in the last minute, but it’s a 40 minute game with lots of opportunities and streaks. We have a young team that doesn’t know how to own all those opportunities for the first 35-38minutes. They have probably never had to. We will have some struggles against older teams that have experience together even when we have a clear physical advantage. It’s the ups and downs with watching young one-and-done talent. Don’t blame them. It’s the system. We have won titles with less physically talented teams.

If you were a Duke undegrad, did you come in as a freshman with the ability to out-perform juniors, seniors and graduate students in your major? You might have been hot stuff in your high school, but it took you a while to adjust to the bigger stage and perform. Same for these guys. We have to live with that. Meanwhile, I just think we shouldn’t blame a loss on any one player. We should be better than that. I am sure RJ will have his share of great games.

jv001
11-21-2018, 08:37 PM
Not unreasonable given the Zags didn't have Tillie, who would have given us even more fits if he had been healthy. With that said, we barely saw Cam Reddish in this game, not to mention the best versions of not just some of the players, but of the entire *team* playing as a unit. I feel good about this Duke team growing from this experience.

Interesting from ESPN Stats & Info: "Duke allowed Gonzaga to shoot 52.3%, its worst defensive field goal percentage in a game in the last two seasons". Considering how last year's team had to go to zone to overcome its defensive deficiencies, that's saying something. Plenty of room for improvement.

See some 3s go in and you get confident. That's what happened with our inability to switch on the high screens(see my post above). Once Captain Jack came in and eventually Javin the defense seem to pick up. In the 2nd half when Duke came back, the Zags began to feel the heat. They even missed some FTs at the end. So, if we play better defense at the beginning of the game it might have had a different outcome. But I think this loss might help the team. It sure gives the coaches some teaching moments. Next play and I don't want to have to say that much this season. GoDuke!

jipops
11-21-2018, 08:41 PM
ESPN already starting the Zags may be the best team in America narrative. Duke is back in the pack. Could the Zags beat the Cavs?

That’s not hype enough. We already know Duke can beat the Cavs. Therefore the Zags can beat the Raptors.

The espn hype machine is truly moronic. If you bought into this clown show then you would be extremely disappointed by today. Apparently it was some foregone conclusion that we would be undefeated this season simply because of the UK outcome. But in reality this a team dominated by freshmen, playing in its 3rd game in 3 days, still a long ways from figuring it out defensively, and still struggling to score in halfcourt. I think we’re really good but I’m not at all convinced we’re a top 5 team. I still think we may just be the 3rd best team in the conference. But it’s November and a lot can change.

proelitedota
11-21-2018, 08:47 PM
5 pages already. Must have been a loss.

simplyluvin
11-21-2018, 08:52 PM
Not unreasonable given the Zags didn't have Tillie, who would have given us even more fits if he had been healthy. With that said, we barely saw Cam Reddish in this game, not to mention the best versions of not just some of the players, but of the entire *team* playing as a unit. I feel good about this Duke team growing from this experience.

Interesting from ESPN Stats & Info: "Duke allowed Gonzaga to shoot 52.3%, its worst defensive field goal percentage in a game in the last two seasons". Considering how last year's team had to go to zone to overcome its defensive deficiencies, that's saying something. Plenty of room for improvement.

This team has a little bit of the feel of 2015. Two things the kids need to and I believe will learn that clicked for 2015: 1) team defense and 2) fluidity of the offense. This team personality-wise is different from 2015, but I really like what our two captains have done. Jack may be like what Justise was on the defense and rebounding side.

OldPhiKap
11-21-2018, 08:53 PM
5 pages already. Must have been a loss.

It’s over.

devildeac
11-21-2018, 09:02 PM
And if Zion gets the ball in the high post or low blocks and goes hard to the rim and gets mauled like RJ did with no call, then what are we discussing? I still we're lamenting the horrid *efense for 30-35 minutes, a couple other fouls in the last couple minutes that were really looked like jump balls (with the possession arrow pointing to Duke:mad:), a touch foul on Jack in the last couple minutes, a couple 2 foot put-backs we missed late and the missed dunks already posted above. Hopefully we learn a lot from this.

jv001
11-21-2018, 09:05 PM
Some early stats:

Zion= 22 points on 8-17, 6-6 Fts, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 blocks. 2 turnovers. Excellent game.

RJ= 23 point on 9-25, 4-8 FTs, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 1 turnover. Ok game.

Tre= 17 points on 7-14, 2-2 FTs, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 turnovers. Great game except the missed dunk. Lay it in young man when you are that open.

Cam= 10 points on 3-9, 2-2 Fts, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, 4 turnovers. Bad game all around.


Javin= 6 points on 1-1 and 4-6 FTs, 6 rebounds and 3 fouls in 15 minutes. Very good game but once again it shows that if he played the most of the game, he would not be around for the important finish. Quit fouling young man.

Captain Jack= only took 2 shots from the field and made 1, 3 points, 5 rebounds. Played very good defense but he fouled out. He had the toughest challenge with playing the Japanese Super Star.

I'm looking for Cam to snap out of his foul prone playing and plays up to his ability and I'm hoping Coach K shows RJ the recording of where it all broke down on those last 3 plays. Then I hope Coach K puts him in a better position to make better plays. GoDuke!

Wildling
11-21-2018, 09:06 PM
Haven’t had a chance to watch a replay yet, but my in-real-time sense was that we weren’t running a coordinated offense that had all four others in the right space and with the same plays/options in mind. Those things come with time. We will see on the replay. If one of those shots falls, or a foul is called, we might not have the same view.

They are young. Two missed uncontested dunks. One experienced team that had years playing together and knew where teammates would/should be. We gave up lots of point blank shots - that’s generally on our bigs and our understanding of how to rotate or backfill on defense.

You may come out on the wrong end of the score in the last minute, but it’s a 40 minute game with lots of opportunities and streaks. We have a young team that doesn’t know how to own all those opportunities for the first 35-38minutes. They have probably never had to. We will have some struggles against older teams that have experience together even when we have a clear physical advantage. It’s the ups and downs with watching young one-and-done talent. Don’t blame them. It’s the system. We have won titles with less physically talented teams.

If you were a Duke undegrad, did you come in as a freshman with the ability to out-perform juniors, seniors and graduate students in your major? You might have been hot stuff in your high school, but it took you a while to adjust to the bigger stage and perform. Same for these guys. We have to live with that. Meanwhile, I just think we shouldn’t blame a loss on any one player. We should be better than that. I am sure RJ will have his share of great games.
I can't argue with what you are saying. However, my point still stands, should RJ continue to play hero ball (tonight was not the only night he's taken ill advised shots) at the end of a game and isn't getting positive results, you better get used to the heat coming his way.

Skydog
11-21-2018, 09:11 PM
With this set of incredible players K has talked a lot about "just letting them play" (not calling plays for them). Works great against teams we can beat on pure athleticism and individual skill. But against well coached teams like the Zags we need more than that. It looked to me from the outset that our freshmen were short on ideas in half-court offense. I can't read their minds but I think they would have welcomed a bit of guidance in the form of a little bit more play calling from the sidelines.

I remember when Duke was a team who - even when our offense was struggling in regular play - were expected to score out of timeouts. Coach K would draw up a great play with a couple of built-in options, everyone knew what they had to do and they just concentrated on executing. But I don't remember seeing any chalk boarding tonight. And it seemed especially called for with this very young team during the last minute of a one possession game. We had at two or three timeouts when the coaching staff could have put in a well practiced play to free up a shooter. But it looked like it our only plan was to give it to RJ and hope. Even Jones looked perplexed what to do on the very last play and just ended up tossing it to RJ and watched him just repeat the completely predictable drive into the crowd. In fact I would have loved the last play being initiated/taken by Jones. His decision making is far superior at this point.

Final thought - if RJ is going to play iso at the end he needs to learn to take what the D gives him. The clogged lane was screaming for a pull up jumper.

Devilwin
11-21-2018, 09:14 PM
I can't argue with what you are saying. However, my point still stands, should RJ continue to play hero ball (tonight was not the only night he's taken ill advised shots) at the end of a game and isn't getting positive results, you better get used to the heat coming his way.
Amen. He's not that great of a shooter either. We would have been better served with Cam or Zion taking a couple of those shots.

jv001
11-21-2018, 09:14 PM
With this set of incredible players K has talked a lot about "just letting them play" (not calling plays for them). Works great against teams we can beat on pure athleticism and individual skill. But against well coached teams like the Zags we need more than that. It looked to me from the outset that our freshmen were short on ideas in half-court offense. I can't read their minds but I think they would have welcomed a bit of guidance in the form of a little bit more play calling from the sidelines.

I remember when Duke was a team who - even when our offense was struggling in regular play - were expected to score out of timeouts. Coach K would draw up a great play with a couple of built-in options, everyone knew what they had to do and they just concentrated on executing. But I don't remember seeing any chalk boarding tonight. And it seemed especially called for this mostly freshman team during the last minute of a one possession game. We had at two or three timeouts when the coaching staff could have put in a well practiced play to free up a shooter. But it looked like it our only plan was to give it to RJ and hope. Even Jones looked perplexed what to do on the very last play and just ended up tossing it to RJ and watched him just repeat the completely predictable drive into the crowd. In fact I would have loved the last play being initiated/taken by Jones. His decision making is far superior at this point.

Final thought - if RJ is going to play iso at the end he needs to learn to take what the D gives him. The clogged lane was screaming for a pull up jumper.
And he went ISO on a zone defense. GoDuke!

dukelifer
11-21-2018, 09:16 PM
That’s not hype enough. We already know Duke can beat the Cavs. Therefore the Zags can beat the Raptors.

The espn hype machine is truly moronic. If you bought into this clown show then you would be extremely disappointed by today. Apparently it was some foregone conclusion that we would be undefeated this season simply because of the UK outcome. But in reality this a team dominated by freshmen, playing in its 3rd game in 3 days, still a long ways from figuring it out defensively, and still struggling to score in halfcourt. I think we’re really good but I’m not at all convinced we’re a top 5 team. I still think we may just be the 3rd best team in the conference. But it’s November and a lot can change.

We are better than I thought but I am not sure how we match up against the veteran ACC teams. But this team has the chops to play D. They need to work on their O in the half court. They are elite on the breaks.

jipops
11-21-2018, 09:18 PM
Some early stats:


I'm looking for Cam to snap out of his foul prone playing and plays up to his ability and I'm hoping Coach K shows RJ the recording of where it all broke down on those last 3 plays. Then I hope Coach K puts him in a better position to make better plays. GoDuke!

Not exactly banner play calling made by K at the end either. Calling for an iso play at the end is something we can all do. And it led to yet another low percentage shot. I’d like to see K call for more ball screens and cuts or really anything to generate some ball movement to force the defense to shift. But sadly I think K has fallen in love with iso ball as much as Barrett has.

curtis325
11-21-2018, 09:23 PM
Anybody know where to go to get a tattoo removed?

Pghdukie
11-21-2018, 09:27 PM
Anybody know where to go to get a tattoo removed?

At the UNDO TATTOO parlor.

WHOneedsSOX
11-21-2018, 09:28 PM
Not exactly banner play calling made by K at the end either. Calling for an iso play at the end is something we can all do. And it led to yet another low percentage shot. I’d like to see K call for more ball screens and cuts or really anything to generate some ball movement to force the defense to shift. But sadly I think K has fallen in love with iso ball as much as Barrett has.

Almost every coach will let his best player get a mismatch and go 1 on 1. Barrett beat his man and was open about 15 feet out. It's on him to make a play from there. He had an easier 13 foot pull up but didn't want it and drove into 2 guys waiting for him.

Duke76
11-21-2018, 09:29 PM
Good job to hang in there, but Barrett got way too selfish at the end. Driving into traffic every time. Youth showed throughout the game, but really showed at the end

may have been said already but he was wide open in the lane and should have put up a little runner before he rammed into the defender that blocked his shot...thats a shot Tre has down pat...surely he will learn that

jv001
11-21-2018, 09:30 PM
At the UNDO TATTOO parlor.

Must spread some sporks. I needed that laugh. Thanks and GoDuke!

jv001
11-21-2018, 09:32 PM
may have been said already but he was wide open in the lane and should have put up a little runner before he rammed into the defender that blocked his shot...thats a shot Tre has down pat...surely he will learn that

He better. That's a shot most NBA players have because you need it against the size of those players. Hey, the Zags have the size of some NBA teams. GoDuke!

LSanders
11-21-2018, 09:34 PM
My $0.02:

- Can't remember the exact 1st half %, but Zags shot something like 60-65% I believe. That ended up at 52% for both 3s and total. So, our D got better.

- Bolton's red cape never made it back from the dry cleaners after Auburn.

- We outrebounded them 44-36 and 22-13 on offensive boards.

- We shot 26 FTs to their 19.

- We got stronger at the end, and they were running on fumes.

- Down by 17 and could have quit --> and never did.

All that, and we came within one shot of tying or beating the #3 team in the country which is loaded with juniors and seniors.

I don't see any doom 'n gloom here. Sure, we always want to win. But, the heart the freshmen showed - yes, including RJ - and the toughness Jack showed make me pretty sure this is going to be one very dangerous team in March. Home-&-Home with VA and the Cheats made us very unlikely to go undefeated anyway. So, a 2-pt loss in November to #3 ... Who cares?

We can all be living room coaches and point to things that could have been done differently. But, I see way more positive than negative. And, I think, based on the effort, these guys will work and learn to make sure this doesn't happen again.

As each 1&done team comes through, we watch early defensive struggles every year. Have any of them had this much heart? The only possible contender is the 2015 group, and they had Quinn, Amile, and Matt to prop them up.

I'm prouder and more excited about this team now than I was yesterday. As far as all the teaching that needs to be done ... In K we trust.

Last ... If I'm Gonzaga, I'm praying like fiends not to meet this team again in March or April.

Skydog
11-21-2018, 09:43 PM
KP's Adj Offensive Efficiency, % Possessions Used

Tonight:
Barrett 105, 29%
Jones 125, 18%
Zion 130, 26%
Reddish 85, 23%
Bolden 174, 12%
White 194, 4%
DeLaurier 128, 18%

Season:
Barrett 107, 33.5%(!)
Jones 125, 16%
Zion 135, 29%%
Reddish 122, 26%
Bolden 141, 13%
White 149, 11%
DeLaurier 115, 15%

Reddish had an off night but Barrett's efficiency was pretty close to his season average of 107. That is way too low and significantly lower than that of his teammates. Given his inefficiency & very high possession usage rate it is amazing our team still has the #1 OE of 120pts/100!

I know RJ will bring that # up - he's too talented not to. He just needs to work on shot selection and reducing unforced turnovers. And free throws!

HaveFunExpectToWin
11-21-2018, 09:49 PM
So that 4 point “Tre dunk into Zag run out” DID end up costing us... Still really proud of the fight to claw our way back. Javin(!?!?) hit some huge free throws that he usually might miss that we’re huge, and we were still in a position to win at the end. I would have much rather had a RJ 3 with 5 on the clock than the most predictable drive I’ve seen in a while.

Two plays like that. Tre’s missed dunk and Zion’s missed dunk. 9 point swing. 😑

Skydog
11-21-2018, 09:51 PM
Tonight's surprising stat: Tre (2-2), Zion (6-6!), Cam(2-2) and Marques(2-2) combined were 100% from the line! Overall 77% from the line vs Zags 58%. Not what I expected to see.

HaveFunExpectToWin
11-21-2018, 10:01 PM
It’s a tough way to lose, but I’m glad the team pulled it together to make it close at the end. Next play.

One thing I took away from this game is that Jack White can be a lock down defender. He had several plays defending Hachimura where he shut him down. I don’t think Duke gets back in this game without his defense and leadership. Well done Jack.

Duke76
11-21-2018, 10:09 PM
I thought Jack White played terrific defense when we needed it.

I thought Tre looked mostly great today.

I thought K needed to get Cam in offense for defense much earlier.

I thought the offense looked stagnant for a long time.

And I thought K was letting them see for themselves that they aren't unbeatable. Nay, there's a lot of tape to show guys that they looked pretty bad at various moments.

Time to grow.

- Chillin

9 assists when we were average about 2X that I bet,,,,that would be my teachable moment

Billy Dat
11-21-2018, 10:16 PM
On Jones....

JAVIN DELAURIER:
"Tre, I think, is the heart and soul of our team. We go as he goes, he's an amazing player. He almost never makes the wrong play and he's capable of providing everyone with energy. We all respect him. He's our point guard and we'll follow him into battle.

MIKE KRZYZEWSKI on the missed Jones dunk:
"Yeah, well the other way is we handled it is we didn't make anything of it. He knew --you could feel it. When you compete like this it's not just hearing, seeing. It's you feel the game and the game didn't feel right. Even though you had really good knowledge, you're ready, but it doesn't feel right. And as a guard, as a competitor, maybe making that play might, boom, it might just do what he did in the second half. So I don't fault him for that. He has tremendous feel for the game. He's way ahead in spite of his young age. That's one of his gifts."

devildeac
11-21-2018, 10:34 PM
Anybody know where to go to get a tattoo removed?

Ciudad Juarez is *probably* not a good option.

OldPhiKap
11-21-2018, 10:35 PM
Ciudad Juarez is *probably* not a good option.

No. No, it is not.

kako
11-21-2018, 10:46 PM
I would just like to see an end to the RJ bashing. It’s not called for. The young man is great.

Agreed. Some things to consider:

1) It's 5 games into the season, and *all* of the freshmen have learning to do. Every one of them.

2) I would rather have a guy who has the stones to take the shot and misses than a guy who passes it up. That last play left Barrett alone just off the top of the key, time was running out and he had the lane to drive. He should have taken it, and he did.

3) Barrett got fouled on his last two drives. If the refs call them, it's potentially a win for Duke. The last one was ridiculously bad - Barrett drove and got the contact, just like a pro, just like he's supposed to do. The refs swallowed their whistles.

4) Duke doesn't make the comeback without Barrett. People are saying he's only good in transition. Go back and watch the tape. For example, look when it's 83-79 Zags. It's a half court set, and Barrett gets the ball from White above the yellow line near center court. He drives right past Hachimura, down the lane, finishes at the rim and gets the and-1. If you want to get on him for his FTs (he missed that and-1), fine. He definitely needs to improve there (most of the team does). But I don't think anything else is fair.

5) Many on this board were bashing guys like Tatum, Ingram, etc. early in their Duke careers. "Selfish", "hero ball", "bad decisions", etc. Did these guys have things to learn? Yes. Did they learn? Yes. Was it because they got bashed on this board? No. There's a reason why those guys were lottery picks after going through some tough losses in their early games.

The Zags were the better team overall today. Duke lost. It sucks, but as we all should know it's likely a blessing in disguise. So I'd say not to take it out on Barrett.

9F

CDu
11-21-2018, 11:10 PM
Well, we saw the downside of Barrett’s game today. Prior to coming to Duke, if his team was in a close game late, he was going to demand the ball, and was going to go iso and take the shot. That is just who he is: an Uber-alpha personality on the court. And prior to college, that was okay. He was always by far the best player on his team, and he was almost always playing against opponents who weren’t tall/long enough, athletic enough, or skilled enough to stop him. And with inferior refs who take his foul-baiting drives more often. The questions coming in were (a) could he continue to do it at the college level and/or (b) could he mesh with other top scorers.

But now, he is perhaps not the best player on his team (and certainly not the most efficient scoring threat), and he isn’t able to just outathlete everyone to the bucket. And refs aren’t always rewarding his wild drives into traffic (no, he was not fouled on those last drives).

Today, his alpha-dog mentality cost us. Hopefully he can learn to harness that better and lose the late-game blinders. If he can, I am guessing he will find open teammates when he beats his man off the dribble. He is still super-talented, a top-3 talent in college. But he is also rough around the edges (a poor shooter for a lead guard/wing). Hopefully this becomes a good learning opportunity. It just stinks that this learning opportunity cost the team a title and broke Duke’s perfect Maui record. But if it helps Barrett start to make better late-game decisions, maybe it is worth it.

uh_no
11-21-2018, 11:27 PM
(no, he was not fouled on those last drives).


ooooo risky words!!!

I haven't watched a replay so can't definitely say one way or another.

As I said, He's good, he NEEDS to be making those drives, but he also needs to be realizing that he's on the floor with at least 2 other guys who are as good as he is. Taking a low percentage shot should never be an option for this team, and one guy going iso the last 5 possessions (whatever it was) and getting zilch out of it is unconscionable.

The game is a teaching moment. This team will learn. They played decent ball for a really long stretch. Opposite last night, after the 4 minute timeout, it was 31-42. Duke never let the game REALLY slip away and won 56-47 the rest of the way in 43 possessions. That was fantastic offense and okay-but-not-bad defense. I would have been happy to keep the final margin ~10, as it means we would have adjusted and at least kept the margin the where it was for a good 24 minutes, and not being able to close that gap against a great team like gonzaga is no shame.

So I was thrilled that we were able to bring it back and have a shot. Yes its unfortunate that those little things ended up being among the things that could have made a difference, but so it is.

Learning moment for this team.
-Transition D is still a major issue.
-don't miss dunks
-get the ball inside.
-don't miss layups
-be strong with the ball. too many drops and strips

This team is really good. Looking forward to seeing what we do vs indiana.

Kedsy
11-22-2018, 01:15 AM
This is an early freshman dominated team that is poor on defense. We’ve taken this same class the past few years.

This is incorrect. We played poor defense today. Big difference between that and being poor on defense. It was our first poor defensive performance of the year and even including today, Pomeroy has our defense ranked #8 in the country.


Will look forward to seeing Kedsy’s stats.

Since you asked nicely, here you go:


ADVANCED STATS

Possessions: 72.19 (very close to our adjusted average for the season)

OFFENSE

oRtg: 1.21 (anyone who says our offense was bad is wrong; our adjusted oRtg was 1.30, which is really good).
eFG%: 46.5% (this, however, was not so good)
3pt%: 38.5% (can't complain about this percentage)
2pt%: 44.1% (this was pretty bad, though it's our first 2-point shooting performance that wasn't at least in the mid- to high-50s)
%threes: 18.1% (waaaaay too low, and by far our lowest percentage of threes taken for the year; not sure what Gonzaga did to keep us from shooting threes, other than get Cam in foul trouble)
FT rate: 36.1% (not nearly as high as our last two games, but not bad)
OR%: 48.9% (outstanding against a pretty tall opponent -- this is why our offense was strong despite our poor shooting; fourth straight strong offensive rebounding performance)
TO%: 13.8% (good; happy for this after two straight subpar performances in this area)
a/to: 0.90:1 (not so good, for the 3rd straight game)
%assisted: 29.0% (poor, reinforcing the common belief that we had too much one-on-one play)
fast break pts: 14 fb pts for 16.1% (not bad, but essentially tied for our worst percentage of the season (with the Army game))

DEFENSE

dRtg: 1.23 (adjusted, that's 108.0, which is still dreadful)
eFG%: 60.0% (really dreadful)
3pt%: 52.6% (not all our fault, but still really bad)
2pt%: 52.2% (generally, you can't let people hit more than half their threes and also hit more than half their twos if you want to win the game)
%threes: 29.2% (low, which suggests Gonzaga was only taking threes when they were pretty sure they could hit them)
FT rate: 29.2% (not great, not terrible)
DR%: 62.9% (second straight game where our DR% was under 65%; this is only acceptable if you force a lot of turnovers and...)
TO%: 15.2% (...we didn't; low forced TO rate, low DR%, and very high opposing eFG% is a really bad combo)
a/to: 1.45:1 (pretty decent)
%assisted: 32.4% (very good; suggests Gonzaga may have played almost as much one-on-one ball as we did)
fast break pts: 17 fb pts for 19.1% (second straight game allowing too many fast break points)
block%: 9.2%; 10.9% of 2-point shots (not bad; also, for the second straight game Zion blocked a three-point shot)


So, very good offense, very bad defense. The lack of D was alarming, but it's our first truly bad defensive performance of the season. Hopefully it was a blip and we'll get back to good D on Tuesday.

left_hook_lacey
11-22-2018, 01:25 AM
Great game. A lot of good points. Only bad take away for me was RB trying to go one on one so many times to end the game. I don't know if that was the play, or if he was trying to take over, but it screams of bad freshman decision. Hopefully, we learn from this and move on.

proelitedota
11-22-2018, 01:41 AM
Best case scenario was a hard fought loss. We know that winning in Maui means a bad end to the season. K knew the Maui curse.

Jackson
11-22-2018, 03:28 AM
Definitely. RJ is really good in transition but Zion is a better halfcourt driver and finisher. Have RJ and Zion play off eachother with Zion creating, because RJ & Cam are good catch and shoot 3 pt shooters.

I would've loved to see Cam take a 3 at the end for a chance at the win and not the tie. With that said, RJ got fouled!

indy1duke
11-22-2018, 04:05 AM
For those DBR fans unable to attend today’s game you would be proud of our fans. It sounded like Cameron minus the pep band and cheerleaders. Duke had 80% of the fan base and was loud and organized throughout the game. It was a great place to see a game.

The officiating was not particularly strong. A huge bad call occurred on Jack’s third foul. He was moving in a line with Norvell when Norvell ran into him and lost his balance. They gave Jack his third foul at 4:51 and Norvell made two shots. I watched the play several times and believe it was a bad call. Another non-call came at about 20 seconds when RJ missed the layup but Jack got the rebound on the left side of the basket but went up on the right side and Clarke blocked it from behind. That is very difficult to do without fouling the shooter. If it had been called it would have been the fifth foul on Clarke. On the last play of the game RJ drives into the lane all the way to the basket and into Hachimura. There has to be a whistle with all that contact. It could not be a charge since Hachimura was in the restricted zone. Plus Hachimura does not go straight up but moves towards RJ. Now we don’t know if RJ can make two foul shots, but it would have been Hachimura’s fifth foul. Of course I acknowledge that refs don’t want to make calls at the end of the game. What Duke fan can forget when Boozer got mugged on Jayson’s missed foul shot in the 2002 regionals.

slower
11-22-2018, 07:22 AM
Haven't read the rest of the thread, so sorry for the duplicate opinions:

1. Tre Stones has arrived. In tight situations, he'll be absolutely crucial. To, me, at least, he's the key player in any run at another natty.

2. As I said a while ago, in another thread, RJ is a ball-dominant alpha-dog. And last night, it cost us at the end (although he was a huge part of the comeback). To paraphrase Dennis Green, He is who we thought he was. Hopefully, he'll learn. Tatum had the same issues. But at least RJ and his teammates truly like each other (as long as he doesn't continue his game-losing heroics).

3. Great comeback. It inspired confidence for future games.

House G
11-22-2018, 07:57 AM
Agreed. Some things to consider:

1) It's 5 games into the season, and *all* of the freshmen have learning to do. Every one of them.

2) I would rather have a guy who has the stones to take the shot and misses than a guy who passes it up. That last play left Barrett alone just off the top of the key, time was running out and he had the lane to drive. He should have taken it, and he did.

3) Barrett got fouled on his last two drives. If the refs call them, it's potentially a win for Duke. The last one was ridiculously bad - Barrett drove and got the contact, just like a pro, just like he's supposed to do. The refs swallowed their whistles.

4) Duke doesn't make the comeback without Barrett. People are saying he's only good in transition. Go back and watch the tape. For example, look when it's 83-79 Zags. It's a half court set, and Barrett gets the ball from White above the yellow line near center court. He drives right past Hachimura, down the lane, finishes at the rim and gets the and-1. If you want to get on him for his FTs (he missed that and-1), fine. He definitely needs to improve there (most of the team does). But I don't think anything else is fair.

5) Many on this board were bashing guys like Tatum, Ingram, etc. early in their Duke careers. "Selfish", "hero ball", "bad decisions", etc. Did these guys have things to learn? Yes. Did they learn? Yes. Was it because they got bashed on this board? No. There's a reason why those guys were lottery picks after going through some tough losses in their early games.

The Zags were the better team overall today. Duke lost. It sucks, but as we all should know it's likely a blessing in disguise. So I'd say not to take it out on Barrett.

9F

I read this and immediately thought of Laettner missing game-tying free throws as a freshman:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-wCjjMb5aN4
(1:26 mark)
I had forgotten he was only a 70% FT shooter as a freshman.
Fast forward to the Vegas game where he calmly hit 2 FTs to win the game. Very similar situations except in the second instance the game was tied.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jerrybarca/2015/04/02/christian-laettner-and-being-clutch-in-the-ncaa-tournament/#21a9a41c5080
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RLU4leUrUDQ
Even the great ones take time to reach their full potential and it usually isn’t reached in one year.

Troublemaker
11-22-2018, 08:14 AM
Lost to a better team today, but love the fight. Better defense and more dribble penetration in the second half...I think that is going to be our game. Played young for about 32 minutes but picked it up. I also think Gonzaga got tired.

If Gonzaga and Duke played today, would you pick Gonzaga to win? Unless you're willing to do that, you don't really think Gonzaga is the better team.

Now, if what you meant to say was that Duke lost to a team that was better than us yesterday, I'm still not sure I would agree. Almost all the stat dorks would say that the game was a statistical tie since it went down to the wire. Now, after the final horn sounded, Gonzaga did end up with slightly more points than Duke, so they got the well-deserved W and Duke got the well-deserved L, and I don't dispute that.

But next, and most crucially, once Coach K yesterday figured out that a traditional center (Marques) could not play in that game, Duke was the better team, right? I'll wait for Neals' plus/minus update, but I suspect we got outscored by double-digits in Marques' limited minutes, meaning we "won" (and somewhat comfortably) when he was off the court. Really, the comeback was spurred by playing Javin and Jack exclusively in place of Marques so we could switch more of Gonzaga's actions within the Zags' beautiful offense.

Saratoga2
11-22-2018, 08:18 AM
Tough loss for me...Duke were so close to winning that I don’t think that they should have lost. What could have gone wrong went wrong for Duke while everything or almost everything went right for Zaga.


Just one point. The Zags missed key free throws down the stretch or we wouldn't have had that opportunity at the end. Yes, our inability to score with the last 7 shots hurt us. Better shot selection down the stretch would have helped.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-22-2018, 08:44 AM
For those DBR fans unable to attend today’s game you would be proud of our fans. It sounded like Cameron minus the pep band and cheerleaders. Duke had 80% of the fan base and was loud and organized throughout the game. It was a great place to see a game.

The officiating was not particularly strong. A huge bad call occurred on Jack’s third foul. He was moving in a line with Norvell when Norvell ran into him and lost his balance. They gave Jack his third foul at 4:51 and Norvell made two shots. I watched the play several times and believe it was a bad call. Another non-call came at about 20 seconds when RJ missed the layup but Jack got the rebound on the left side of the basket but went up on the right side and Clarke blocked it from behind. That is very difficult to do without fouling the shooter. If it had been called it would have been the fifth foul on Clarke.

Interesting takes - and on ESPN, the camera shots made the crowd seem more like 50-50...but I was thinking it was a Cameron type atmosphere. And I totally concur with your thoughts on Jack's third foul on Norvell. Not only was it a bad call, ended up hurting when Jack fouled out, but it was total BS. Jack was called because he played good D and Norvell lost balance. It was a crucial possession vis a vis momentum at the time too. Ditto when Clark blocked Jack from behind. Those type calls did not end up that way on the opposite end from observation.

All of this is not to say the officiating cost us the game...but there were a few very key and very irritating moments that caught your eye and mine. In fact, with absolutely no blueprint for how to handle a team that is so young with so much over the top national hype in this day and ago of social mediums.....there are lessons that this team needs to learn that can only be learned with an L. This was a tough L to a really outstanding team who was playing their butts off......and as much as I hate it in the moment, I think it's a good thing long haul.

Neals384
11-22-2018, 09:06 AM
If Gonzaga and Duke played today, would you pick Gonzaga to win? Unless you're willing to do that, you don't really think Gonzaga is the better team.

Now, if what you meant to say was that Duke lost to a team that was better than us yesterday, I'm still not sure I would agree. Almost all the stat dorks would say that the game was a statistical tie since it went down to the wire. Now, after the final horn sounded, Gonzaga did end up with slightly more points than Duke, so they got the well-deserved W and Duke got the well-deserved L, and I don't dispute that.

But next, and most crucially, once Coach K yesterday figured out that a traditional center (Marques) could not play in that game, Duke was the better team, right? I'll wait for Neals' plus/minus update, but I suspect we got outscored by double-digits in Marques' limited minutes, meaning we "won" (and somewhat comfortably) when he was off the court. Really, the comeback was spurred by playing Javin and Jack exclusively in place of Marques so we could switch more of Gonzaga's actions within the Zags' beautiful offense.

-11
You have a great eye for that stuff, Trouble.

arnie
11-22-2018, 09:36 AM
If Gonzaga and Duke played today, would you pick Gonzaga to win? Unless you're willing to do that, you don't really think Gonzaga is the better team.

Now, if what you meant to say was that Duke lost to a team that was better than us yesterday, I'm still not sure I would agree. Almost all the stat dorks would say that the game was a statistical tie since it went down to the wire. Now, after the final horn sounded, Gonzaga did end up with slightly more points than Duke, so they got the well-deserved W and Duke got the well-deserved L, and I don't dispute that.

But next, and most crucially, once Coach K yesterday figured out that a traditional center (Marques) could not play in that game, Duke was the better team, right? I'll wait for Neals' plus/minus update, but I suspect we got outscored by double-digits in Marques' limited minutes, meaning we "won" (and somewhat comfortably) when he was off the court. Really, the comeback was spurred by playing Javin and Jack exclusively in place of Marques so we could switch more of Gonzaga's actions within the Zags' beautiful offense.

The smaller ball lineup was critical for our comeback and I think we’ll see more of that through the season
(again based on matchups). However, I agree with the previous poster, Gonzaga has a better team. We have more talented individuals, but watching the Zags last night reminded me of Duke teams in the late 80s with great teamwork and understanding of roles. I would pick them right now against any other college team.

dukelifer
11-22-2018, 10:05 AM
If Gonzaga and Duke played today, would you pick Gonzaga to win? Unless you're willing to do that, you don't really think Gonzaga is the better team.

Now, if what you meant to say was that Duke lost to a team that was better than us yesterday, I'm still not sure I would agree. Almost all the stat dorks would say that the game was a statistical tie since it went down to the wire. Now, after the final horn sounded, Gonzaga did end up with slightly more points than Duke, so they got the well-deserved W and Duke got the well-deserved L, and I don't dispute that.

But next, and most crucially, once Coach K yesterday figured out that a traditional center (Marques) could not play in that game, Duke was the better team, right? I'll wait for Neals' plus/minus update, but I suspect we got outscored by double-digits in Marques' limited minutes, meaning we "won" (and somewhat comfortably) when he was off the court. Really, the comeback was spurred by playing Javin and Jack exclusively in place of Marques so we could switch more of Gonzaga's actions within the Zags' beautiful offense.
Zags are good - few weaknesses - but they will not shoot like that every game. Duke had a below average offensive game and still had a real shot to win. In games against similarly talented teams- it is who plays the best on a given day. Zags will also get better when that shooter comes back. The Zags have the stuff to be a FF team- no denying that.

I also agree that Jack’s play was key. He understands the art of rebounding and has a great feel for defensive positioning. Jack’s emergence has been the most pleasant surprise of the season. He is earning those Captain stripes.

jdk
11-22-2018, 11:11 AM
I didn't see the game (weird timezone differences), haven't seen the highlights or read the box score yet.

But when I saw the final score, I was reminded of another 2 point loss to a top ten team in an early season championship that took place in an OCONUS venue.

jwillfan
11-22-2018, 11:15 AM
I didn't see the game (weird timezone differences), haven't seen the highlights or read the box score yet.

But when I saw the final score, I was reminded of another 2 point loss to a top ten team in an early season championship that took place in an OCONUS venue.

Had the same thought - Cincinnati, in Alaska, 1998? Very very late game, weird recollection of listening on the radio while laying in the floor trying very hard to stay awake...

YmoBeThere
11-22-2018, 11:28 AM
...reminded me of Duke teams in the late 80s with great teamwork and understanding of roles.

The early ‘90s teams wave hello.

moonpie23
11-22-2018, 11:35 AM
i can't help thinking that with all the hype going to zion, that RJ felt like he had to show that he was "the best player in college bb", "the consensus #1 nba draft pick", etc....


Zags had his number on those last 3 possessions......he shoulda kicked it.....I think zion going to the rim gets that call on the last play...


NEXT GAME!!

oh, i set the number of dunk attempts made by Tre Jones for the remainder of the year at 1......i'll take the under...

arnie
11-22-2018, 11:40 AM
The early ‘90s teams wave hello.

Intentionally left that group out. Too talented😀

Saratoga2
11-22-2018, 11:54 AM
Zags are good - few weaknesses - but they will not shoot like that every game. Duke had a below average offensive game and still had a real shot to win. In games against similarly talented teams- it is who plays the best on a given day. Zags will also get better when that shooter comes back. The Zags have the stuff to be a FF team- no denying that.

I also agree that Jack’s play was key. He understands the art of rebounding and has a great feel for defensive positioning. Jack’s emergence has been the most pleasant surprise of the season. He is earning those Captain stripes.

Even though we outrebounded the Zags, I still thought there were key rebounds lost because we didn't box out well. Jacks best at it but in the heat of the moment our guys got beat to the ball. Jack the the right combination of awareness, desire and strength to do that job, even though he is not the biggest, longest or most agile player we have. Another learning experience.

uh_no
11-22-2018, 11:57 AM
i can't help thinking that with all the hype going to zion, that RJ felt like he had to show that he was "the best player in college bb", "the consensus #1 nba draft pick", etc...



could be. but i'd prefer to give him the benefit of doubt and think that he just has to learn that he doesn't HAVE to do it all himself.

Kedsy
11-22-2018, 12:00 PM
Duke had a below average offensive game and still had a real shot to win.

Based on the stats, we had a far above-average offensive game. Our defense was far below average.

Steven43
11-22-2018, 12:03 PM
I don’t understand why Zion didn’t get one shot to drive to the basket. He finishes so much better than Barrett. A loss hopefully kills the ridiculous hype and gets the focus back. Selfish ball is the only thing that can kill this season.
I like Barrett and want to see him succeed within the flow of the offense. Unfortunately, he has a tendency to get out of the flow and play hero ball, seemingly at the worst possible times. Barrett has a lot of good skills and might well become a solid pro, but right now he does not have elite outside shooting ability or elite raw athleticism, though he is a very good athlete. Top 5 NBA picks almost always have one or the other, sometimes both. Though he can’t do anything to take his athleticism from very good to elite, he can improve his outside shot considerably. He’s going to have to do so if Duke is to achieve its potential this season and if he wants to be a top draft pick and a solid starter in the NBA. I wish him well.

Kedsy
11-22-2018, 12:15 PM
But next, and most crucially, once Coach K yesterday figured out that a traditional center (Marques) could not play in that game, Duke was the better team, right? I'll wait for Neals' plus/minus update, but I suspect we got outscored by double-digits in Marques' limited minutes, meaning we "won" (and somewhat comfortably) when he was off the court. Really, the comeback was spurred by playing Javin and Jack exclusively in place of Marques so we could switch more of Gonzaga's actions within the Zags' beautiful offense.

I just went through the play-by-play and manually counted possessions and score while Marques was in the game. Here are the oRtg/dRtg numbers with and without Marques:

DEFENSE
with Marques: 1.48 points per possession (adjusted: 1.33)
without Marques: 1.08 points per possession (adjusted: 0.93)

OFFENSE
with Marques: 1.12 points per possession (adjusted: 1.21)
without Marques: 1.26 points per possession (adjusted: 1.35)

Which appears to confirm the eye test on defense, but why would our offense be better without him? Ultimately, I'm not sure how much of this difference is due to Marques's inability to defend Gonzaga's PNR and how much is due to random variation (the bugaboo of relying on one-game +/- numbers).

NSDukeFan
11-22-2018, 12:18 PM
That was as fun a “loss” as I’ve seen from Duke in awhile. Great game, great opponent, great comeback, just ran out of time.
I was wondering when was the last time R.J. lost a basketball game. He hasn’t lost many recently. He’ll be better next time and will increase his efficiency as the year goes on as he figures out more and more what he can and can’t do at this level, just like Tatum did. I hope he can improve his FT % as that will quickly help his efficiency.
I was impressed how Gonzaga mostly was out on 3-point shooters, but also had bodies inside to contest drives most of the time. The team might need a little bit more motion on offense and/or inside- outside play to open things up a bit more for our shooters and give our amazing drivers a little bit more room to operate. Of course, it’s the defence that has a bit more room for improvement from that game, but I doubt R.J., Cam and Zion are happy about the loss and expect the coaches will have their attention.

Tre is awesome.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-22-2018, 12:19 PM
Even though we outrebounded the Zags, I still thought there were key rebounds lost because we didn't box out well. Jacks best at it but in the heat of the moment our guys got beat to the ball. Jack the the right combination of awareness, desire and strength to do that job, even though he is not the biggest, longest or most agile player we have. Another learning experience.

Jack and Zion normally corral every rebound that they even get their hands on at all......the rest of the team? Not so much on this. We lost a lot of bounds in this game I think we should've had. Jack and Zion are like Bobo in FB....they hold onto everything. (Jack let one get away, but he's excellent at this).

Kedsy
11-22-2018, 12:22 PM
I was impressed how Gonzaga mostly was out on 3-point shooters, but also had bodies inside to contest drives most of the time.

This is a really good point. Only 18% of our shots came from three (a very low number, presumably because the Duke players didn't feel open), and yet it seemed like Gonzaga always had three defenders clogging the lane. Not sure how they managed that.

uh_no
11-22-2018, 12:24 PM
Based on the stats, we had a far above-average offensive game. Our defense was far below average.

I think two things make the offense "look" bad

- the fact that gonzaga could score at will amplifies every empty possession.
- the last minute of the RJ show really left a bad taste in people's mouths, but is really a terribly small part of the whole game. The offense largely brought us back into the game, and a couple bad possessions at the end don't change that

There are obviously things to improve, but this team will get there.

Kedsy
11-22-2018, 12:25 PM
Jack and Zion normally corral every rebound that they even get their hands on at all...the rest of the team? Not so much on this. We lost a lot of bounds in this game I think we should've had. Jack and Zion are like Bobo in FB...they hold onto everything. (Jack let one get away, but he's excellent at this).

I think you continue to sell Javin short. He has grabbed a higher percentage of available rebounds while he's in the game than either Jack or Zion.

jv001
11-22-2018, 12:30 PM
I like Barrett and want to see him succeed within the flow of the offense. Unfortunately, he has a tendency to get out of the flow and play hero ball, seemingly at the worst possible times. Barrett has a lot of good skills and might well become a solid pro, but right now he does not have elite outside shooting ability or elite raw athleticism, though he is a very good athlete. Top 5 NBA picks almost always have one or the other, sometimes both. Though he can’t do anything to take his athleticism from very good to elite, he can improve his outside shot considerably. He’s going to have to do so if Duke is to achieve its potential this season and if he wants to be a top draft pick and a solid starter in the NBA. I wish him well.

I think it was CDU that posted RJ was able to take over games against high school competition but has found it to be tougher against a good college basketball team. I agree with that assessment. But he has time to grow from the mistakes he made at the end of last nights game. He can beat most guys off the dribble but what he has to learn is there's help coming. He needs to learn to give the ball up to the open man. I have no reason to believe he won't improve in that area. A more troubling area is his foul shooting. Even if he get's the call, can he make both FTs with the pressure on. He needs to work on that area of his game as well. I'm hoping the loss to the Zags helps the team in getting ready for conference play. GoDuke!

DukieInBrasil
11-22-2018, 12:34 PM
i can't help thinking that with all the hype going to zion, that RJ felt like he had to show that he was "the best player in college bb", "the consensus #1 nba draft pick", etc...
Zags had his number on those last 3 possessions...he shoulda kicked it....I think zion going to the rim gets that call on the last play...
oh, i set the number of dunk attempts made by Tre Jones for the remainder of the year at 1...i'll take the under...

the type of thinking you described is exactly why the coaching staff needs to work with him and the team to make sure that he doesn't have the opportunity to play that way; pure ego, 0 team. that thinking is exactly why i have never gotten on the RJ train, he's a great talent sure, but he's shooting 40% FGs, and 31% 3Fgs, and 60% FTs, none of which are good, and largely driven by his immaturity and poor shot selection.
Hopefully, the coaching staff gets thru to him and he matures as a player, because a mature, good-shot-selection RJ vs the Zags gives Duke the win instead of the loss.


I like Barrett and want to see him succeed within the flow of the offense. Unfortunately, he has a tendency to get out of the flow and play hero ball, seemingly at the worst possible times. Barrett has a lot of good skills and might well become a solid pro, but right now he does not have elite outside shooting ability or elite raw athleticism, though he is a very good athlete. Top 5 NBA picks almost always have one or the other, sometimes both. Though he can’t do anything to take his athleticism from very good to elite, he can improve his outside shot considerably. He’s going to have to do so if Duke is to achieve its potential this season and if he wants to be a top draft pick and a solid starter in the NBA. I wish him well.

RJ within the flow of the offense has to be the goal, that type of RJ gives Duke the win vs the Zags.


Jack and Zion normally corral every rebound that they even get their hands on at all...the rest of the team? Not so much on this. We lost a lot of bounds in this game I think we should've had. Jack and Zion are like Bobo in FB...they hold onto everything. (Jack let one get away, but he's excellent at this).

somebody coined the term for Javin which seemed appropriate: Javin has 8-yr old girl hands. He had both hands on rebounds multiple times only to lose it to a Zags player who poked it away, at least once for an Oboard putback. If Javin holds on to those rebs, perhaps Duke wins. Javin has a very good rebounding rate, and %s, but he would be amazing if he could lock that ball up. He's also got really good rates and %s in lots of defensive, and even offensive categories, but his complete lack of confidence withe ball on offense really hurt the team last night. There were at least 2 times when Javin had the ball near the rim and rather than using his hyper-athletic talent to go for the dunk and force the Zags to foul him he a) dribbled weakly, pump faked and then went for a lay-up, for which he drew a foul, making 1; and b) got an Oboard to the left of the lane and had what appeared to be a clear path to the rim and he inexplicably passed it away almost immediately. Javin needs to be more aggressive, that would really help the team.

fathippo
11-22-2018, 01:23 PM
I hate to see the RJ bashing. I get the frustration and the tendency is to analyze the last plays in a close game. The plan was obviously to put the ball in his hand at the end on the game because he is our best one-on-one offensive option right now. It just didn't work. I still think his "hero ball" mode is because he is a competitor and to assume he is trying to impress scouts, jealous of Zion, etc. is unfair. I trust he will learn to make better decisions.

The real problem was Gonzaga was able to run their offense how they wanted in the first half and get good shots. But I loved the fight the team showed in the second half and was really impressed with Jones. This young team has played 3 top ten teams in their first 6 games and came a play or two from being undefeated. To me most of the problems/mistakes I have seen are fixable. Losing no fun, but these games are going to make them a much better team going forward.

Happy Thanksgiving!

OldPhiKap
11-22-2018, 01:25 PM
why would our offense be better without him? Ultimately, I'm not sure how much of this difference is due to Marques's inability to defend Gonzaga's PNR and how much is due to random variation (the bugaboo of relying on one-game +/- numbers).

K said after the game that when we went small, it opened up driving lanes. So I think it is more a factor of not having a center than it was of Marques personally. If he goes out to the perimeter, the defender really doesn’t need to go out with him too far.

CoachJ10
11-22-2018, 03:09 PM
And it wasnt as bad as I had expected. Must be the holiday bliss!

Gonzaga played nearly perfect basketball, hitting a high % of low % shots, had balls bounce their way...meanwhile Duke was missing dunks.

All that being said, down the stretch, were it not for some bad calls on us and bad no calls on them...we probably win.

As an aside...can anyone remember the last time we had any favorable reffing go our way down the stretch in a big game? Despite the espn/cbs fake news narrative, we have been on the wrong side of the zebras quite often in recent memory.

Next play.

Kedsy
11-22-2018, 03:17 PM
As an aside...can anyone remember the last time we had any favorable reffing go our way down the stretch in a big game? Despite the espn/cbs fake news narrative, we have been on the wrong side of the zebras quite often in recent memory.

My guess is this is exactly the viewpoint of every fan base in every sport in the history of the world.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-22-2018, 03:34 PM
My guess is this is exactly the viewpoint of every fan base in every sport in the history of the world.

It may be, but Duke basketball is a different animal from any other team/school/franchise that I can think of. No one says the Yankees get all the calls...for example. I cannot think of another team who's own fan base is so tiny in comparison with the hater nation for that team.

What happens with human nature is that officials hear all this, and they don't want to be accused of being part of "Duke getting all the calls." Human nature is a powerful force. We've seen Jay Bilas and to some degree Jay Williams feel the need to talk down Duke or talk up others because they too don't want to be accused of being a Duke homer. No one can convince me that the same is not potentially at play in the officials, even if sub consciously.

I cannot think of many screw jobs in any sport at any time that can compare to the UConn Natty Title game, or the Regional final versus Indiana. All of this to say that yeah, every fan base thinks they get jobbed....but Duke, and the Duke fan base, in basketball, is in a position that no other team anywhere is....that I can think of.

Steven43
11-22-2018, 04:02 PM
I cannot think of many screw jobs in any sport at any time that can compare to the UConn Natty Title game, or the Regional final versus Indiana.
Don’t forget the worst officiated game that I have seen in any sport, amateur or professional — the Duke v UConn 2004 Final Four game. To call the officiating in that game inept, shameful, horrific and despicable would be far too kind.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-22-2018, 04:21 PM
Don’t forget the worst officiated game that I have seen in any sport, amateur or professional — the Duke v UConn 2004 Final Four game. To call the officiating in that game inept, shameful, horrific and despicable would be far too kind.

i think that was the game I meant....the one where Shavlik Randolph was deemed illegal simply by his existence.......

Green Wave Dukie
11-22-2018, 04:49 PM
My guess is this is exactly the viewpoint of every fan base in every sport in the history of the world.

Kedsy - COMPLETELY agree with you here.

My gut tells me if we could somehow do an unbiased review of the times we benefitted from bad calls and the times our opponent benefitted from them, it would be very, very close to even. Don’t suspect too many folks will agree with me here (as the early returns above seem to already indicate), so I recognize I am likely the outlier here. And admittedly, I don’t have evidence to support my opinion, other than common sense & a basic understanding of human nature. I do know I find whining about refereeing to be a pointless exercise and it doesn’t increase my respect & admiration of those who do. Of course, YMMV.

YmoBeThere
11-22-2018, 05:18 PM
Of course, YMMV.

I tend to just not drive that bus. It saves a lot of angst and consternation.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-22-2018, 05:20 PM
And admittedly, I don’t have evidence to support my opinion, other than common sense & a basic understanding of human nature.


With due respect, I think human nature works against your case, not for it. For human nature to work for your case, you would have to make the argument that Duke basketball is not unique vis a vis it's place in the national sports conversation. I don't think that case can be made at all. Duke is uniquely hated, and above any other sports team on the planet, is assumed to always get the benefit of the officiating. There is no way in human nature where this doesn't impact officials, at least sub consciously.

MChambers
11-22-2018, 05:29 PM
Kedsy - COMPLETELY agree with you here.

My gut tells me if we could somehow do an unbiased review of the times we benefitted from bad calls and the times our opponent benefitted from them, it would be very, very close to even. Don’t suspect too many folks will agree with me here (as the early returns above seem to already indicate), so I recognize I am likely the outlier here. And admittedly, I don’t have evidence to support my opinion, other than common sense & a basic understanding of human nature. I do know I find whining about refereeing to be a pointless exercise and it doesn’t increase my respect & admiration of those who do. Of course, YMMV.

I agree with this. There are outlier games, like the 2004 FF game, but they are rare.

Saratoga2
11-22-2018, 05:40 PM
the type of thinking you described is exactly why the coaching staff needs to work with him and the team to make sure that he doesn't have the opportunity to play that way; pure ego, 0 team. that thinking is exactly why i have never gotten on the RJ train, he's a great talent sure, but he's shooting 40% FGs, and 31% 3Fgs, and 60% FTs, none of which are good, and largely driven by his immaturity and poor shot selection.
Hopefully, the coaching staff gets thru to him and he matures as a player, because a mature, good-shot-selection RJ vs the Zags gives Duke the win instead of the loss.



RJ within the flow of the offense has to be the goal, that type of RJ gives Duke the win vs the Zags.



somebody coined the term for Javin which seemed appropriate: Javin has 8-yr old girl hands. He had both hands on rebounds multiple times only to lose it to a Zags player who poked it away, at least once for an Oboard putback. If Javin holds on to those rebs, perhaps Duke wins. Javin has a very good rebounding rate, and %s, but he would be amazing if he could lock that ball up. He's also got really good rates and %s in lots of defensive, and even offensive categories, but his complete lack of confidence withe ball on offense really hurt the team last night. There were at least 2 times when Javin had the ball near the rim and rather than using his hyper-athletic talent to go for the dunk and force the Zags to foul him he a) dribbled weakly, pump faked and then went for a lay-up, for which he drew a foul, making 1; and b) got an Oboard to the left of the lane and had what appeared to be a clear path to the rim and he inexplicably passed it away almost immediately. Javin needs to be more aggressive, that would really help the team.

It seems to me that both DeLaurier and also Bolden seem to feel the need to taken the ball to the floor to dribble and reset before going up for a dunk or a putback. It often happens and it exposes them for poke aways by smaller players. A bettter strategy would be to keep the ball up and go directly for the basket.

BandAlum83
11-22-2018, 05:47 PM
Two plays like that. Tre’s missed dunk and Zion’s missed dunk. 9 point swing. 😑

Is it just me, or do other people believe that a single play that you can point to like a missed dunk, is NOT the difference in a two point game?

All I think, is that the score at that point may have been different, but the dynamics of the entire game are changed at that point. What do I mean? Well, that 4 pt swing maybe made Duke play harder the next few possessions, maybe Mark few doesn't sub a player that maybe he would have had we cut the lead. so many variables. It doesn't necessarily follow that we can simply add those points to the board and say: see!!?

It's not like baseball in that regard.

Or, maybe I don't get it. It's certainly possible.

CoachJ10
11-22-2018, 05:56 PM
Kedsy - COMPLETELY agree with you here.

My gut tells me if we could somehow do an unbiased review of the times we benefitted from bad calls and the times our opponent benefitted from them, it would be very, very close to even. Don’t suspect too many folks will agree with me here (as the early returns above seem to already indicate), so I recognize I am likely the outlier here. And admittedly, I don’t have evidence to support my opinion, other than common sense & a basic understanding of human nature. I do know I find whining about refereeing to be a pointless exercise and it doesn’t increase my respect & admiration of those who do. Of course, YMMV.

And I find those who ignore the role of refs/umps/officals to the outcomes of games to be...strangely ignoring one of the fundamental elements to any game. But feel free to not respect and not admire anyone you please.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-22-2018, 05:59 PM
Is it just me, or do other people believe that a single play that you can point to like a missed dunk, is NOT the difference in a two point game? .

I don't think Coach K agrees with you....he stated several times after the Zag game that certain plays are worth a lot more than just the two points or whatever. In fact, he defended Tre's dunk attempt on just that point....

Then again, I'm not totally clear what point you were making in all honesty, so apologies if I mis-interpreted. But single plays like that can indeed totally turn a game one way or the other.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-22-2018, 06:01 PM
And I find those who ignore the role of refs/umps/officals to the outcomes of games to be...strangely ignoring one of the fundamental elements to any game. But feel free to not respect and not admire anyone you please.

And these same people can sit there, bash Bilas for his over reaching NOT to be pro Duke - and yet, somehow, think referees of the very same species are somehow immune to this......:confused:

Hancock 4 Duke
11-22-2018, 06:38 PM
I am thoroughly impressed with how well Zion, Tre, and Cam play team ball. All three of them seem to know their limits, their strengths, and their weaknesses, and they hardly play outside of them. I can't seem to remember any shots from Maui from those three that I'd consider an ill-advised shot. They remind me of Tyus/Jah/Justise in that regard. I don't get nervous when any of them have the ball in their possession.

RJ seems to be the polar opposite of them, and that may be why he's being singled out in these threads. RJ is playing exactly how I'd expect him to play at this point in the season, but it looks so much worse when he is the only starter close to being inefficient and unaware. It was easy to tell that he wanted to be "the man" down the stretch but there has to come a point where, after 3 or 4 failed attempts of ISO ball, he realizes he has other teammates that can do the job. I 100% expect him to continue to learn this and become more efficient throughout the season; it's just frustrating that it was so obvious last night considering the circumstances.

TruBlu
11-22-2018, 06:49 PM
Don’t forget the worst officiated game that I have seen in any sport, amateur or professional — the Duke v UConn 2004 Final Four game. To call the officiating in that game inept, shameful, horrific and despicable would be far too kind.

Football version: Halloween, Miami

HereBeforeCoachK
11-22-2018, 08:37 PM
Football version: Halloween, Miami

Disagree there....that was just one call, not a systemic screwing all game long. In fact, Duke might've caught a break on the TD call on Sirk's run.

BandAlum83
11-22-2018, 08:50 PM
I don't think Coach K agrees with you...he stated several times after the Zag game that certain plays are worth a lot more than just the two points or whatever. In fact, he defended Tre's dunk attempt on just that point...

Then again, I'm not totally clear what point you were making in all honesty, so apologies if I mis-interpreted. But single plays like that can indeed totally turn a game one way or the other.

That single play was an opportunity to turn the game, for sure. Making the Dunk MAY have created momentum that could have energized Duke for a comeback at that point. Sure. I agree with that, and K supported Tre's decision to go for the Dunk.

My point is that we can't look at the missed dunk and final score to conclude that if had had made that, the score would have been tied at the time of the final buzzer. Maybe if he makes it, we go on a first-half run and win by 15.

If he does a simple lay-in, maybe not much else changes, or one coach makes a different player decision and one team or the other go on to win by 8. There are so many variables, we simply can't say. Basketball is a very dynamic game where a one play interacts with every other play for a through line. A missed basket here or missed free throw there can't be assumed to simply be added to the final score to say, "well if we hit 3 more free throws, we win". If we hit 3 more free throws, everything that happened after would change.

Do you follow my reasoning?

BandAlum83
11-22-2018, 09:14 PM
This was a really interesting game for me. I listened to it while on the road for a Thanksgiving weekend getaway. We streamed Tune-In radio and Mrs Bandalum and I were yelling and screaming and fistbumping down the highway.

I haven't watched the game yet. I'm not sure if I will, but I did see the last play. I don't really think any ref calls that foul right before the buzzer. Well, maybe 10% do. I did also see the play before where Jack was called for a foul on what to me was clearly a tie up and jump ball (when Duke had the possession arrow).

All that being said, it was a very exciting game to hear, and I am very proud of how we came back from a huge deficit. It showed heart and determination.

I was surprised Cam wasn't in, but our defense was rolling. Radio pointed out that the Zags had missed 8 of 9 shots at one point. The defense gave us the opportunity to get back to a tie game. It was awesome!

I had a thought as I listened, however. Let me know what you think.

The first 5 games sorta began like defensive blitzkrieg, so to speak. We trailed for a total of 30 seconds total before the Gonzaga game. Against Ky, the blitzkreig was accompanied by an offensive onslaught, and the other games had varying degrees of offensive success. The common thread was that we came out hard and active and defense focused. We set a tone early and intimidated front he beginning! The Auburn game saw a turn, however. We came out strong, but we also took a lot more fouls in the early going than we did in the 4 prior games.

Before Gonzaga, there was a lot said (K included) about needing to be able to stay on the floor and keep out of foul trouble. It was a point of emphasis, and indeed, we had no foul trouble until Cam took his 3 and fourth between about 10:00 and 8:30 of the second half. I didn't see it, but as I listened to the game, especially at the beginning, it sounded like we just weren't as aggressive on D. It didn't sound like we were overplaying and slapping at the ball, etc. We were well into the first half before the Zags were in the bonus.

Did our fear of foul trouble affect our defense?

Thoughts??

Furniture
11-22-2018, 09:51 PM
Suddenly I feel better.....

rsvman
11-22-2018, 11:24 PM
I am thoroughly impressed with how well Zion, Tre, and Cam play team ball. All three of them seem to know their limits, their strengths, and their weaknesses, and they hardly play outside of them. I can't seem to remember any shots from Maui from those three that I'd consider an ill-advised shot. They remind me of Tyus/Jah/Justise in that regard. I don't get nervous when any of them have the ball in their possession.

RJ seems to be the polar opposite of them, and that may be why he's being singled out in these threads. RJ is playing exactly how I'd expect him to play at this point in the season, but it looks so much worse when he is the only starter close to being inefficient and unaware. It was easy to tell that he wanted to be "the man" down the stretch but there has to come a point where, after 3 or 4 failed attempts of ISO ball, he realizes he has other teammates that can do the job. I 100% expect him to continue to learn this and become more efficient throughout the season; it's just frustrating that it was so obvious last night considering the circumstances.

I have been reading a LOT in this thread about RJ "hero ball" and how he has to be the alpha dog, and so on and so forth.

Has it occurred to anybody besides me that perhaps Coach K essentially WANTED RJ to run the iso on the last 5 plays of the game? That it wasn't just RJ playing "hero ball," but was actually a strategy that Coach K thought would give us the best chance to win the game?


I mention this because we've all seen this playbook before. 1999 title game, last year's Elite Eight game against Kansas, just to name a couple off the top of my head. Oh, and the UVa game in Cameron in which the strategy worked.

Steven43
11-23-2018, 01:04 AM
I have been reading a LOT in this thread about RJ "hero ball" and how he has to be the alpha dog, and so on and so forth.

Has it occurred to anybody besides me that perhaps Coach K essentially WANTED RJ to run the iso on the last 5 plays of the game? That it wasn't just RJ playing "hero ball," but was actually a strategy that Coach K thought would give us the best chance to win the game?


I mention this because we've all seen this playbook before. 1999 title game, last year's Elite Eight game against Kansas, just to name a couple off the top of my head. Oh, and the UVa game in Cameron in which the strategy worked.
Sounds like you are calling out Coach K’s coaching acumen in big games that are close coming down the stretch. You may have just committed Duke fan suicide on the DBR boards.

Bob Green
11-23-2018, 07:10 AM
Disagree there...that was just one call, not a systemic screwing all game long. In fact, Duke might've caught a break on the TD call on Sirk's run.

Disagree...the McCaffrey fumble was an atrocious call. Max was obviously down long before the ball came out. It was not just one call.

OldPhiKap
11-23-2018, 07:25 AM
I have been reading a LOT in this thread about RJ "hero ball" and how he has to be the alpha dog, and so on and so forth.

Has it occurred to anybody besides me that perhaps Coach K essentially WANTED RJ to run the iso on the last 5 plays of the game? That it wasn't just RJ playing "hero ball," but was actually a strategy that Coach K thought would give us the best chance to win the game?


I mention this because we've all seen this playbook before. 1999 title game, last year's Elite Eight game against Kansas, just to name a couple off the top of my head. Oh, and the UVa game in Cameron in which the strategy worked.

Yup.

But regardless, now K has tape of five instances in which it could have been executed better. Not just by R.J., but some teammates standing around watching. Should he have made a pass at point X? Should someone have slid over to the open spot at point Y and made himself known? Should he have done a step back at point Z instead of driving into a defensively closeable gap at the rim? Should he have driven into a moving player to get the whistle? Lessons will be learned from each one.

I would happily trade a few more games like this, even with losses, for blowouts and an unprepared team come elimination time.

Indoor66
11-23-2018, 07:41 AM
In the final sequence of plays, I kept looking for a kick out to Jack, who was open, for a three. I my mind, this would have been the perfect play. He would have been set and is very accurate in that situation. It would have been a win.

Rich
11-23-2018, 10:47 AM
In the final sequence of plays, I kept looking for a kick out to Jack, who was open, for a three. I my mind, this would have been the perfect play. He would have been set and is very accurate in that situation. It would have been a win.

He should have found Tyler Thornton. He knows how to hit that critical three in Maui.

jv001
11-23-2018, 11:55 AM
In the final sequence of plays, I kept looking for a kick out to Jack, who was open, for a three. I my mind, this would have been the perfect play. He would have been set and is very accurate in that situation. It would have been a win.

I was looking for a kick out for 3 or a dump off to Javin for an easy layup but the view I had on my TV didn't show if either Jack or Javin were in the proper spots for a pass. If not, then part of the blame goes to them. Coach K can draw up the play but the players must execute and be in the correct position to succeed. I'm pretty sure Coach K had a Plan B if RJ is double or triple teamed. If not, then it's on our GOAT. GoDuke!

budwom
11-23-2018, 11:59 AM
Watching the play again last night (I had hoped for a kickout for a game winning three) it looked to me like our guys were just standing around looking at RJ...might they have moved a bit, come off a
screen, done something more to justify receiving a pass? Just didn't see any movement from them.

jv001
11-23-2018, 12:10 PM
Watching the play again last night (I had hoped for a kickout for a game winning three) it looked to me like our guys were just standing around looking at RJ...might they have moved a bit, come off a
screen, done something more to justify receiving a pass? Just didn't see any movement from them.

Not comparing RJ with Austin Rivers or the team offense to those days, but there were many, many times that Duke players stood around and watched Austin with the ball rather than moving to get open for a pass. Sure am glad Austin didn't kick it out in the Cheat game. :cool: GoDuke!

luvdahops
11-23-2018, 12:27 PM
I have been reading a LOT in this thread about RJ "hero ball" and how he has to be the alpha dog, and so on and so forth.

Has it occurred to anybody besides me that perhaps Coach K essentially WANTED RJ to run the iso on the last 5 plays of the game? That it wasn't just RJ playing "hero ball," but was actually a strategy that Coach K thought would give us the best chance to win the game?


I mention this because we've all seen this playbook before. 1999 title game, last year's Elite Eight game against Kansas, just to name a couple off the top of my head. Oh, and the UVa game in Cameron in which the strategy worked.

I definitely think it was some combination of conscious strategy on K's part and too much faith in RJ's 1 on 1 abilities (and to be fair, also rooted in the success we had attacking the basket in prior ~5 minutes or so). So perhaps a bit of a learning experience for the staff as well, though as some other posters have noted, there were likely secondary options that were either ignored or not well executed.

Worth noting that RJ's advanced metrics are all pretty mediocre thus far in the season. He is not all efficient offensively (high volume, low percentage shooter), though his assist totals are decent, and while generally strong on the ball defensively, has frequent lapses off the ball - gambling or helping unnecessarily, losing track of his man, failing to box out, etc. Nothing that can't be fixed, especially given his work ethic and competitiveness.

richardjackson199
11-23-2018, 12:39 PM
I have been reading a LOT in this thread about RJ "hero ball" and how he has to be the alpha dog, and so on and so forth.

Has it occurred to anybody besides me that perhaps Coach K essentially WANTED RJ to run the iso on the last 5 plays of the game? That it wasn't just RJ playing "hero ball," but was actually a strategy that Coach K thought would give us the best chance to win the game?


I mention this because we've all seen this playbook before. 1999 title game, last year's Elite Eight game against Kansas, just to name a couple off the top of my head. Oh, and the UVa game in Cameron in which the strategy worked.

Rsvman is right. Fortunately what happened in the last minute of the Gonzaga game is so glaring it cannot be ignored. Duke needs a higher percentage approach on potential game-winning shot opportunities.

DoWorkDukie
11-23-2018, 12:40 PM
One thing I've noticed is that RJ has no middle game. Hes obviously an incredibly gifted and skilled scorer. But watching Tre get a guy on his hip and drop a mid floater is a higher percentage shot, often times, than trying to shoot over a tall & skilled front line. I hope RJ can watch some film and maybe go to a mid floater. Or look for dump offs more. javin / Ques were wide open on several of his drives, where he tried to score over 3 people

jv001
11-23-2018, 12:43 PM
I definitely think it was some combination of conscious strategy on K's part and too much faith in RJ's 1 on 1 abilities (and to be fair, also rooted in the success we had attacking the basket in prior ~5 minutes or so). So perhaps a bit of a learning experience for the staff as well, though as some other posters have noted, there were likely secondary options that were either ignored or not well executed.

Worth noting that RJ's advanced metrics are all pretty mediocre thus far in the season. He is not all efficient offensively (high volume, low percentage shooter), though his assist totals are decent, and while generally strong on the ball defensively, has frequent lapses off the ball - gambling or helping unnecessarily, losing track of his man, failing to box out, etc. Nothing that can't be fixed, especially given his work ethic and competitiveness.

You have hit on something that I had not thought about. I think all of our freshman want to learn how to get better. Not just for the NBA, but to win a National Championship. Losing this game should help them get better. Not just that one game, but all the Maui games. There were many teachable moments in all 3 games but the most glaring moments came in the loss to the Zags. That game will be on their minds until Coach K tells them to forget it and NEXT PLAY. GoDuke!

DoWorkDukie
11-23-2018, 12:44 PM
I definitely think it was some combination of conscious strategy on K's part and too much faith in RJ's 1 on 1 abilities (and to be fair, also rooted in the success we had attacking the basket in prior ~5 minutes or so). So perhaps a bit of a learning experience for the staff as well, though as some other posters have noted, there were likely secondary options that were either ignored or not well executed.

Worth noting that RJ's advanced metrics are all pretty mediocre thus far in the season. He is not all efficient offensively (high volume, low percentage shooter), though his assist totals are decent, and while generally strong on the ball defensively, has frequent lapses off the ball - gambling or helping unnecessarily, losing track of his man, failing to box out, etc. Nothing that can't be fixed, especially given his work ethic and competitiveness.

Because of his high usage on a team thats loaded with talent, folks are way more critical about him. He hasn't been very efficient, and as you pointed out, his off ball & help defense leaves the most to be desired.

He's a hugely important player, and finding the right role & efficiency for him will be key. As of now, he's shooting ~42% from the field, ~32% from 3, and ~60% from the FT line. For us to reach our potential, K has got to find a way to get him to be a little more efficient. It's not that he's missing open shots- he's taking reaaaally high degree of difficulty shots. K is putting him in those situations, as well.

One thing, IMO, that hurt us was our overall sloppiness with the ball. We didnt push the ball off of makes by the Zags, which IMO, unlocks our true potential and forces mismatches. But it was clear that by trying to speed up the game in that sense, we kept giving up live ball turnovers. If we could protect the ball better and run on people, I think its our best recipe to build big leads for kick out / trail 3 pointers.

richardjackson199
11-23-2018, 01:10 PM
You have hit on something that I had not thought about. I think all of our freshman want to learn how to get better. Not just for the NBA, but to win a National Championship. Losing this game should help them get better. Not just that one game, but all the Maui games. There were many teachable moments in all 3 games but the most glaring moments came in the loss to the Zags. That game will be on their minds until Coach K tells them to forget it and NEXT PLAY. GoDuke!

Maui was great for Duke.

In the last minute (like the other end-of-game instances rsvman referenced), those were all low-percentage shots, which is why a very low percentage of them went in. Grayson did not barely miss a good shot last year vs Kansas. He barely missed a hero-ball iso bad shot.

Calipari used a similar strategy down the stretch when his super team lost to Wisconsin. He started calling Iso plays for Andrew Harrison, clearing out their other 4 players, rather than getting the ball inside to Towns or moving the ball to get a higher percentage shot.

At halftime of the Gonzaga game, Jay Williams said for Duke to win they need to "run some actual offense" rather than relying so much on iso. Jay was proven right.

It was a great lesson for Duke in November. We'll learn and get better. But it's not all on the players. Few and company thoroughly outcoached K on Wed. Gonzaga executed a brilliant gameplan on both ends of the floor. You don't shoot almost 70% in the first half by accident. Then right after halftime, Gonzaga hit 6 of their first 7 shots. Our very athletic and defensively skilled players (individually) were getting picked apart by great pick and roll offensive ball movement.

K outcoached Few in the 2015 Elite 8. We have great coaching too. There is a lot of work to do to improve, and we could not have gotten a better early season lesson and reality check. We'll learn from it. This team should be incredible in March if we can stay healthy.

Don't forget it and next play. Here's to never forgetting.

jv001
11-23-2018, 01:26 PM
Maui was great for Duke.

In the last minute (like the other end-of-game instances rsvman referenced), those were all low-percentage shots, which is why a very low percentage of them went in. Grayson did not barely miss a good shot last year vs Kansas. He barely missed a hero-ball iso bad shot.

Calipari used a similar strategy down the stretch when his super team lost to Wisconsin. He started calling Iso plays for Andrew Harrison, clearing out their other 4 players, rather than getting the ball inside to Towns or moving the ball to get a higher percentage shot.

At halftime of the Gonzaga game, Jay Williams said for Duke to win they need to "run some actual offense" rather than relying so much on iso. Jay was proven right.

It was a great lesson for Duke in November. We'll learn and get better. But it's not all on the players. Few and company thoroughly outcoached K on Wed. Gonzaga executed a brilliant gameplan on both ends of the floor. You don't shoot almost 70% in the first half by accident. Then right after halftime, Gonzaga hit 6 of their first That7 shots. Our very athletic and defensively skilled players (individually) were getting picked apart by great pick and roll offensive ball movement.

K outcoached Few in the 2015 Elite 8. We have great coaching too. There is a lot of work to do to improve, and we could not have gotten a better early season lesson and reality check. We'll learn from it. This team should be incredible in March if we can stay healthy.

Don't forget it and next play. Here's to never forgetting.

Seems like I've heard that from Coach K once upon a time. I remember Jay Will saying "run some actual offense" at the half and yes, he was right. ISO can encourage the players without the ball to watch and not keep moving. I know that's not the way it should be run but with freshmen playing their first college games it can happen. Coach Few did an outstanding job in coaching, but he has experienced players at his disposal. I'm hoping that our freshmen will soon learn from the mistakes that were made and I agree it was a great lesson for them. GoDuke!

killerleft
11-23-2018, 04:28 PM
I have been reading a LOT in this thread about RJ "hero ball" and how he has to be the alpha dog, and so on and so forth.

Has it occurred to anybody besides me that perhaps Coach K essentially WANTED RJ to run the iso on the last 5 plays of the game? That it wasn't just RJ playing "hero ball," but was actually a strategy that Coach K thought would give us the best chance to win the game?


I mention this because we've all seen this playbook before. 1999 title game, last year's Elite Eight game against Kansas, just to name a couple off the top of my head. Oh, and the UVa game in Cameron in which the strategy worked.

I think you're right, but... Surely there was an option to pass to an open teammate. Tre was open and set to shoot on the first of RJ's drives. I'd need to watch again, but I'm pretty sure Tre had his hands ready for the pass. Alas, the Stones II legend must wait for a while.

uh_no
11-23-2018, 04:34 PM
I think you're right, but... Surely there was an option to pass to an open teammate. Tre was open and set to shoot on the first of RJ's drives. I'd need to watch again, but I'm pretty sure Tre had his hands ready for the pass. Alas, the Stones II legend must wait for a while.

Always. Iso doesn't mean you have to take the shot. That's why so many late game ISO plays fail the other team "knows who is going to take the shot" so they throw 5 guys at him. Ignore your 4 open teammates at your own demise.

It takes some experience to realize when to dump it off. I think we can get there.

lotusland
11-23-2018, 07:07 PM
This was a really interesting game for me. I listened to it while on the road for a Thanksgiving weekend getaway. We streamed Tune-In radio and Mrs Bandalum and I were yelling and screaming and fistbumping down the highway.

I haven't watched the game yet. I'm not sure if I will, but I did see the last play. I don't really think any ref calls that foul right before the buzzer. Well, maybe 10% do. I did also see the play before where Jack was called for a foul on what to me was clearly a tie up and jump ball (when Duke had the possession arrow).

All that being said, it was a very exciting game to hear, and I am very proud of how we came back from a huge deficit. It showed heart and determination.

I was surprised Cam wasn't in, but our defense was rolling. Radio pointed out that the Zags had missed 8 of 9 shots at one point. The defense gave us the opportunity to get back to a tie game. It was awesome!

I had a thought as I listened, however. Let me know what you think.

The first 5 games sorta began like defensive blitzkrieg, so to speak. We trailed for a total of 30 seconds total before the Gonzaga game. Against Ky, the blitzkreig was accompanied by an offensive onslaught, and the other games had varying degrees of offensive success. The common thread was that we came out hard and active and defense focused. We set a tone early and intimidated front he beginning! The Auburn game saw a turn, however. We came out strong, but we also took a lot more fouls in the early going than we did in the 4 prior games.

Before Gonzaga, there was a lot said (K included) about needing to be able to stay on the floor and keep out of foul trouble. It was a point of emphasis, and indeed, we had no foul trouble until Cam took his 3 and fourth between about 10:00 and 8:30 of the second half. I didn't see it, but as I listened to the game, especially at the beginning, it sounded like we just weren't as aggressive on D. It didn't sound like we were overplaying and slapping at the ball, etc. We were well into the first half before the Zags were in the bonus.

Did our fear of foul trouble affect our defense?

Thoughts??
I thought their foul trouble was a much bigger issue in the second half than ours and they were more tentative as a result. Several of their fouls were picked up on RJ drives. While I’d like to see him hit better than 4-8, it’s still a huge benefit for RJ to be aggressive. I remember Jack also got to the line on an RJ drive and dish.

Duke’s best offense with this team is to drive a dish. Against zone they need Cam, Zion or R.J. in the middle to collapse the defense. Maybe slip Bolden or Javin along the baseline a la senior MP3. Maybe run occasional PNRs but no need to run shooters off screens. We should be able to get an open shooter off a drive at any time.

sagegrouse
11-24-2018, 05:23 PM
There's way too much emphasis on R.J.'s play at the end of the Gonzaga game. And it's not just on DBR. Below is ESPN's Mike Schmitz reporting on some consensus observations on R.J. We were down by 16 points against the #3 ranked team, one with both talent and experience. We made a heroic comeback, fueled by both the offense and defense. At the end, we were fairly exhausted, and Gonzaga wasn't looking too good either (like at the free throw line). Yeah, R.J. made some bad decisions at the end. The story of the game, IMHO (where the H disappeared after a luau), is how poorly we played for the first thirty-plus minutes (giving credit to Gonzaga's amazing shooting). A team that comes roaring back from a big deficit often staggers at the finish line. R.J. is heckuva player who needs to improve in some areas and will probably do so before the end of the season. Despite his international experience, he is a college freshman playing his first few games.

Here are Schmitz's comments on ESPN+ (fair use only):


J.R. Barrett ... [as a potential #1 draft choices]:
Schmitz: ... Leading up to the Gonzaga game, NBA scouts questioned Barrett's willingness to make others better, his shooting consistency and his overall upside as a No. 1 pick. Barrett strengthened that argument when he took five shots in the final 57 seconds (all misses), more or less icing out his teammates and looking extremely clunky in the half court. Barrett is an accomplished talent who figures to look much better on a spaced NBA floor, but he hasn't done himself any favors over the past few games, generating more questions than answers in regard to his ability to coexist with other stars.

slower
11-24-2018, 08:34 PM
There's way too much emphasis on R.J.'s play at the end of the Gonzaga game. And it's not just on DBR.

Wait. So all of us - AND NBA scouts - shouldn't be questioning his shot selection and ball-dominance?

I'm not saying he wasn't a major reason we came back. And I'm not saying he won't learn from this. But I just watched the last 4 minutes of the game again, paying particular attention to RJ's last 5 missed shots. On each of those possessions, he never even looked to pass - not once.

Again, hopefully he'll learn from it. And maybe he'll also learn that if he wants to be the unquestioned alpha-dog, he's gonna have to accept the blame when fingers rightly point at him.

uh_no
11-24-2018, 09:04 PM
Wait. So all of us - AND NBA scouts - shouldn't be questioning his shot selection and ball-dominance?

I'm not saying he wasn't a major reason we came back. And I'm not saying he won't learn from this. But I just watched the last 4 minutes of the game again, paying particular attention to RJ's last 5 missed shots. On each of those possessions, he never even looked to pass - not once.

Again, hopefully he'll learn from it. And maybe he'll also learn that if he wants to be the unquestioned alpha-dog, he's gonna have to accept the blame when fingers rightly point at him.

agree.

rj hasn't been efficient. period. the last few possessions epitomized this. we need to find ways for him to be more efficient than his current average (and especially than the last few shots) if we want to be successful.

sagegrouse
11-24-2018, 09:33 PM
Wait. So all of us - AND NBA scouts - shouldn't be questioning his shot selection and ball-dominance?

I'm not saying he wasn't a major reason we came back. And I'm not saying he won't learn from this. But I just watched the last 4 minutes of the game again, paying particular attention to RJ's last 5 missed shots. On each of those possessions, he never even looked to pass - not once.

Again, hopefully he'll learn from it. And maybe he'll also learn that if he wants to be the unquestioned alpha-dog, he's gonna have to accept the blame when fingers rightly point at him.

My point is that the story of the game is that Duke got wa-a-a-a-y behind. Sure, we caught up, but the screw-ups in the last minute were more likely a product of a breath-taking rally over the last 7-8 minutes of the game than a systematic set of flaws in our offensive performance (or R.J.'s performance). I wouldn't over-emphasize those mistakes under the circumstances.

duke96
11-25-2018, 12:51 AM
My point is that the story of the game is that Duke got wa-a-a-a-y behind. Sure, we caught up, but the screw-ups in the last minute were more likely a product of a breath-taking rally over the last 7-8 minutes of the game than a systematic set of flaws in our offensive performance (or R.J.'s performance). I wouldn't over-emphasize those mistakes under the circumstances.

My view is no matter what, RJ should not be blamed for his actions at the end of the game because the coaching staff either permitted and/or encouraged it. And with play stoppages they had multiple opportunities to intervene. What I remain baffled by is why, with opportunities to do so, we didn’t make any effort to run a play that could help us get a good shot in the end, or at least get the ball back to other guys that had been very effective in the second half. I get that K is at the more laissez faire end of the spectrum on these things. But i’m just not sure what is accomplished by letting the team lose by permitting hero ball offense again and again with poor results. Definition of insanity and all that...

Really just genuinely curious how that is a useful strategy, even recognizing that the coaches are (hopefully) playing the long game.

Rmarkste
11-25-2018, 07:56 AM
I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia. I had an epiphany that these one and done teams will never play good team ball in a set offense so this team's path to a Championship is to keep stressing defense and run, run, run on fast break. We don't shoot the three good enough to slow it down. Duke could not stop Gonzaga and as a result as Jay Bilas said they were taking the ball out of the net so they couldn't get out on the fast break. If Duke can make the defensive stops and run the fast breaks then their assist to turnover will get back to a healthy ratio and they will demoralize teams with dunk after dunk. Let their athleticism and sheer talent shine with this approach. It starts with stressing defense (we have a good start since Tre Jones plays great on ball defense) and ends with a fast break dunk!

sagegrouse
11-25-2018, 08:47 AM
I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia. I had an epiphany that these one and done teams will never play good team ball in a set offense so this team's path to a Championship is to keep stressing defense and run, run, run on fast break. We don't shoot the three good enough to slow it down. Duke could not stop Gonzaga and as a result as Jay Bilas said they were taking the ball out of the net so they couldn't get out on the fast break. If Duke can make the defensive stops and run the fast breaks then their assist to turnover will get back to a healthy ratio and they will demoralize teams with dunk after dunk. Let their athleticism and sheer talent shine with this approach. It starts with stressing defense (we have a good start since Tre Jones plays great on ball defense) and ends with a fast break dunk!

I don't disagree with your sentiments, but I would ask you to wait and see how the team develops over the next few weeks. Right now it looks like Five Characters in Search of an Author -- credit to Luigi Pirandello. Approaches to both offense and defense have varied significantly from game to game. Sure, the competition has presented different problems, but still... How do we use Zion on offense? Can R.J. make his teammates better? Will our top freshmen be foul-prone? Cam Reddish is an enormous talent -- how can we best use him? Will we be able to better defend ball screens or will we need to retreat to a zone defense?

loaded question
11-25-2018, 09:15 AM
The brilliance of Coach K is sometimes what he chooses not to do or say.

He is letting RJ figure it out for himself and observing what happens next. If Coach K really has to pull RJ aside and say "RJ you have to pick your spots and reign in the heroball."
then chemistry will doom this Duke team. Its up to RJ and his teammates(especially Zion and Tre) to curtail this becuase its a noticeable problem.

Saratoga2
11-25-2018, 10:05 AM
I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia. I had an epiphany that these one and done teams will never play good team ball in a set offense so this team's path to a Championship is to keep stressing defense and run, run, run on fast break. We don't shoot the three good enough to slow it down. Duke could not stop Gonzaga and as a result as Jay Bilas said they were taking the ball out of the net so they couldn't get out on the fast break. If Duke can make the defensive stops and run the fast breaks then their assist to turnover will get back to a healthy ratio and they will demoralize teams with dunk after dunk. Let their athleticism and sheer talent shine with this approach. It starts with stressing defense (we have a good start since Tre Jones plays great on ball defense) and ends with a fast break dunk!

Watching Virginia play, I get the feeling they remain an excellent team that has been put together and molded by an excellent coach in Tony Bennett. It's the same story every year and despite Duke's great talent, they will take time to become the kind of team that can reliably beat the best teams, and in particular, Virginia. That remains to be seen, but it is clear that to beat Virginia a team has to hit the three since they are very good inside. We have two games against them this year so we can see this play out.

uh_no
11-25-2018, 10:13 AM
My point is that the story of the game is that Duke got wa-a-a-a-y behind. Sure, we caught up, but the screw-ups in the last minute were more likely a product of a breath-taking rally over the last 7-8 minutes of the game than a systematic set of flaws in our offensive performance (or R.J.'s performance). I wouldn't over-emphasize those mistakes under the circumstances.

I'm not sure how you can argue that RJs overall offensive performance hasbeen particularly good, though. He's decidedly less efficient than any of the starters...and it's not even close.

Bolden: 141 ortg
Zion: 134
tre: 125
Cam reddish: 122
RJ: 107

I don't know how many standard deviations left of the mean that is, but it's not zero. The point isn't that one can't be a useful player with that level of output, but that the amount of shots he took at the end of the game last week simply cannot be justified at that level.

There is value to having somewhat inefficient players take some volume of shots if the reaction of the defense makes other players more efficient. But when the efficiency is SO decidedly lower than anyone else on the floor, and the usage is so much higher (he's taking nearly 40% of our shots), something is clearly wrong. Maybe coach K wants it that way. I don't know. But in any case, if the game plan is for RJ to take all the shots in the last minute of tough games, we are going to lose a lot of tough games. That is a systematic flaw in our offense.

As I said earlier in this thread, the offense DID perform quite well, despite the last minute, but that doesn't mean it can't be better....and I think RJ's performance absolutely overall and especially in the last minute is a flaw that's preventing that potential from being realized. I also think it's something he can improve, but it's also something that needs to improve, especially if we can't play defense.

Duke76
11-25-2018, 11:15 AM
My view is no matter what, RJ should not be blamed for his actions at the end of the game because the coaching staff either permitted and/or encouraged it. And with play stoppages they had multiple opportunities to intervene. What I remain baffled by is why, with opportunities to do so, we didn’t make any effort to run a play that could help us get a good shot in the end, or at least get the ball back to other guys that had been very effective in the second half. I get that K is at the more laissez faire end of the spectrum on these things. But i’m just not sure what is accomplished by letting the team lose by permitting hero ball offense again and again with poor results. Definition of insanity and all that...

Really just genuinely curious how that is a useful strategy, even recognizing that the coaches are (hopefully) playing the long game.

The unknown, known. Great post as aren't we all genuinely curious as to what was discussed/called during those time outs, especially the last one. We're just left to speculate which is terribly frustrating for those of us so invested.

lotusland
11-25-2018, 11:36 AM
I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia. I had an epiphany that these one and done teams will never play good team ball in a set offense so this team's path to a Championship is to keep stressing defense and run, run, run on fast break. We don't shoot the three good enough to slow it down. Duke could not stop Gonzaga and as a result as Jay Bilas said they were taking the ball out of the net so they couldn't get out on the fast break. If Duke can make the defensive stops and run the fast breaks then their assist to turnover will get back to a healthy ratio and they will demoralize teams with dunk after dunk. Let their athleticism and sheer talent shine with this approach. It starts with stressing defense (we have a good start since Tre Jones plays great on ball defense) and ends with a fast break dunk!

Thinking back to the splash that Bags, Carter, and Trent made early last year, I think it’s true that these guys aren’t really more dominant at this point so we’ll have to wait and see. Zion has been a revelation though. I’m one of those who discounted his potential impact based on his level of competition in HS. He’s far better than I thought. RJ has been as expected but, so far, Tre has surpassed my expectation. Cam is the mystery. I only know recruiting from what I read on DBR and my impression was for Cam to be an inspector gadget with Brandon Ingram length. In addition to knocking down shots I thought he would be the best frosh defender and serve as a backup PG when Tre is out. So far he’s played more like a less aggressive Gary Trent. Whether Cam can use his size and length to more of an advantage on both ends will be a key. So far I’d say Jack adds more than Cam. If Cam can get a little more active on Defense and on the boards, he can become a real key player. Unlike last year, we have 4 guys who can get their own shot and, in theory, find the open teammate. It should be harder to gameplan our offense. Whether they can defend better is great question. Good MTM takes such a team effort. Can Javin defend without fouling? Can Bolden protect the rim without being a liability against PNRs? Can Zion play aggressively on D without accumulating fouls and getting fatigued? What will Cam’s Idenity be on defense? Can AOC guard well enough to play? Only time will tell.

sagegrouse
11-25-2018, 01:50 PM
I'm not sure how you can argue that RJs overall offensive performance hasbeen particularly good, though. He's decidedly less efficient than any of the starters...and it's not even close.

Bolden: 141 ortg
Zion: 134
tre: 125
Cam reddish: 122
RJ: 107

I don't know how many standard deviations left of the mean that is, but it's not zero. The point isn't that one can't be a useful player with that level of output, but that the amount of shots he took at the end of the game last week simply cannot be justified at that level.


Hay-soos, Uh No!!! I never once said that R.J.'s performance was good -- or even average.

In simpler terms, I said we had an intense comeback and were gassed at the end; we shouldn't have needed the comeback from 16 points, and, therefore, we should not dwell on the bad possessions in the last minute or so. And, to add to my post, we should be cautious about heaping blame on a freshman playing his sixth college game.

UrinalCake
11-25-2018, 04:54 PM
What I remain baffled by is why, with opportunities to do so, we didn’t make any effort to run a play that could help us get a good shot in the end, or at least get the ball back to other guys that had been very effective in the second half. I get that K is at the more laissez faire end of the spectrum on these things.

I guess I would mention that we were playing our third game in as many days and there’s only so much coachcing you can do in that environment. These guys don’t exactly practice in between games, maybe they do a film session and a walk through in the 19 hours they had between the Auburn game ending and the Gonzaga game starting, but I’m willing to forgive K for letting his players go with their natural instincts on the last play, especially when that’s what allowed the comeback to begin with. Gonzaga as the more experienced team had guys who had been playing together for years.

duke4ever19
11-25-2018, 05:52 PM
I guess I would mention that we were playing our third game in as many days and there’s only so much coachcing you can do in that environment. These guys don’t exactly practice in between games, maybe they do a film session and a walk through in the 19 hours they had between the Auburn game ending and the Gonzaga game starting, but I’m willing to forgive K for letting his players go with their natural instincts on the last play, especially when that’s what allowed the comeback to begin with. Gonzaga as the more experienced team had guys who had been playing together for years.

I'm going to do a Colin Cowherd analogy:

Duke playing Gonzaga was like teaching a son or daughter to swim. It doesn't go so well initially. They are aware that pretending to swim in the bathtub was not at all like swimming in a real pool. Their confidence is shaken and even a bit of panic ensues, but a little more patience is all that is needed. Soon they are beginning to get the swimming stroke down and how to coordinate their feet kicks with their arm motion. Now they are headed from the shallow end to the deep, hoping to go from one end to the other. They get within a foot of the railing and then their worry about the deep end and their energy level makes them a bit panicked again, so you reach in and take them out of the water before a good experience becomes a bad experience. It's the parent's job to turn the experience into a good lesson instead of a failure.

That's what I got from watching the game. The team got a gut punch, but gradually they figured it out and just when they needed a little more patience and good decision-making, they panicked a bit and fell short. But Coach K seemed happy with how they responded and I'm sure he will use a lot of that tape to help them become better players and a better team.

indy1duke
11-25-2018, 08:51 PM
I had a good seat at the game and rewatched the last five minutes several times. I mentioned previously the calls that I felt were in error upthread.

Our team made a great comeback. 16 points down in the second half against a final four caliber team, yet I was confident that Duke would make a run. We came all the way back. We just could not take the lead. It reminded me of the 1998 regional final against KY when we lost a 17 point second half lead. In that game our guards could not stop dribble penetration even though we had two players who won national defensive players of the year.

We were tired but Gonzaga was gassed. All their shots were coming up short and they couldn’t even make their foul shots.

We all know that Coach K prefers to give the ball to the alpha lead guard at the end of the game to make the winning play, e.g., Trajan, JJ, Grayson. This approach doesn’t always work, but that is what we do. RJ can either get better or one of us can call Coach K and advise a different approach.

Of course there is another way. We can reach the last minute with a lead like we did against #8 Auburn. I believe we won’t have occasion to rehash this topic very often this season because we will have comfortable leads. Knowing that Coach K hates losing more than any of us I suspect he and the other coaches are considering these end of game situations and how best to pull out a victory. Anyone disagree?

gep
11-25-2018, 09:44 PM
I had a good seat at the game and rewatched the last five minutes several times. I mentioned previously the calls that I felt were in error upthread.

Our team made a great comeback. 16 points down in the second half against a final four caliber team, yet I was confident that Duke would make a run. We came all the way back. We just could not take the lead. It reminded me of the 1998 regional final against KY when we lost a 17 point second half lead. In that game our guards could not stop dribble penetration even though we had two players who won national defensive players of the year.

We were tired but Gonzaga was gassed. All their shots were coming up short and they couldn’t even make their foul shots.

We all know that Coach K prefers to give the ball to the alpha lead guard at the end of the game to make the winning play, e.g., Trajan, JJ, Grayson. This approach doesn’t always work, but that is what we do. RJ can either get better or one of us can call Coach K and advise a different approach.

Of course there is another way. We can reach the last minute with a lead like we did against #8 Auburn. I believe we won’t have occasion to rehash this topic very often this season because we will have comfortable leads. Knowing that Coach K hates losing more than any of us I suspect he and the other coaches are considering these end of game situations and how best to pull out a victory. Anyone disagree?

I agree with this. In fact, I had thoughts that Coach K is also "learning" about the team, individual players, etc... along with the team. This is only the 6th game, and the really the first "game pressure" game. Auburn was a good test, but Duke was able to keep the lead. With Gonzaga, to come from a 16 point deficit in the 2nd half... I think, not only the players will learn from this, but also Coach K and his staff will learn too :cool:

As has been said over and over, each year, each team is different, and has their own journey to navigate and "learn".

Kedsy
11-25-2018, 10:44 PM
But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

In 2009-10, in our veteran-laded team's first three games against decent competition, Duke failed to get more assists than turnovers in any of the three games (total 34 assists, 37 turnovers; compared to this year's last three games totals of 33 assists, 38 turnovers). If that was the one stat you looked at, you were probably worried that season, too. But it turned out all right.

Also, in this year's team's first three games, our assists to turnovers was an amazing 69 to 27. You can't just ignore that when determining this team's outlook. Yeah, the competition was worse in those three games, but that does include a game against the then-#2 team in the country, so it wasn't all cupcakes either.

So, your attempt to "burst [my] bubble" has failed. We won't know whether this team will be strong in the offensive halfcourt or not for awhile. Or whether this will be a good defensive team or not. My guess is yes on both counts, but we'll just have to wait and see.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-26-2018, 06:32 AM
It reminded me of the 1998 regional final against KY when we lost a 17 point second half lead. In that game our guards could not stop dribble penetration even though we had two players who won national defensive players of the year.

Another parallel....that 17 point lead v. Kentucky in 1998 should've been 25 or 30 - we clanked so many FTs early on in the game......should've been a blow out.

Utley
11-26-2018, 11:35 PM
I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia. I had an epiphany that these one and done teams will never play good team ball in a set offense so this team's path to a Championship is to keep stressing defense and run, run, run on fast break. We don't shoot the three good enough to slow it down. Duke could not stop Gonzaga and as a result as Jay Bilas said they were taking the ball out of the net so they couldn't get out on the fast break. If Duke can make the defensive stops and run the fast breaks then their assist to turnover will get back to a healthy ratio and they will demoralize teams with dunk after dunk. Let their athleticism and sheer talent shine with this approach. It starts with stressing defense (we have a good start since Tre Jones plays great on ball defense) and ends with a fast break dunk!

It may just be me but I was happy with how things turned out for the team 4 years ago.

Steven43
11-27-2018, 01:01 AM
It may just be me but I was happy with how things turned out for the team 4 years ago.

It’s not just you.

To that end I’m feeling a potential repeat, of sorts, of the 2014-15 season coming. This team will have some losses in January and February just like in 2015 — anyone remember the Miami game in Cameron? — but will endure and gain strength as the season goes on. By the time UNC enters Cameron Indoor on February 20 the players will have solidiified their roles and gained valuable experience and confidence. At that point the Devils will have probably suffered at least three losses.

But starting with the hated Heels I expect the good guys to be hitting on all cylinders and go on a run that might last all the way through April 8 in Minneapolis. There is a long way between here and there, of course, but I just have a feeling about another Jones brother being the glue that binds it all together and brings a smile to our collective faces that will last through the rest of the school year and all summer long. But who will play the role of Grayson?

HereBeforeCoachK
11-27-2018, 08:07 AM
It’s not just you.

To that end I’m feeling a potential repeat, of sorts, of the 2014-15 season coming. This team will have some losses in January and February just like in 2015 — anyone remember the Miami game in Cameron? — but will endure and gain strength as the season goes on. By the time UNC enters Cameron Indoor on February 20 the players will have solidiified their roles and gained valuable experience and confidence. At that point the Devils will have probably suffered at least three losses.

But starting with the hated Heels I expect the good guys to be hitting on all cylinders and go on a run that might last all the way through April 8 in Minneapolis. There is a long way between here and there, of course, but I just have a feeling about another Jones brother being the glue that binds it all together and brings a smile to our collective faces that will last through the rest of the school year and all summer long. But who will play the role of Grayson?

The analogy to 14-15 is there, but of course, not perfect as you know..but worth exploring. So running with your theme, the "role of Grayson" in the Final Four could be played by AOC. You know, the guard off the bench who has hops, can shoot, and will hustle... So while Grayson was energy and good against Michigan State in 15, he was only needed against Wisconsin...and only needed because of deep deep foul trouble and an inexplicable funk the rest of the guys were in for a while. Thank goodness he was up to it, because we were going down without that burst.

rsvman
11-27-2018, 01:32 PM
The analogy to 14-15 is there, but of course, not perfect as you know..but worth exploring. So running with your theme, the "role of Grayson" in the Final Four could be played by AOC. You know, the guard off the bench who has hops, can shoot, and will hustle... So while Grayson was energy and good against Michigan State in 15, he was only needed against Wisconsin...and only needed because of deep deep foul trouble and an inexplicable funk the rest of the guys were in for a while. Thank goodness he was up to it, because we were going down without that burst.

You beat me to it.

Enter the Slim Reaper!

jimsumner
11-27-2018, 02:43 PM
I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia.

Duke losing 89-87 in November to the No. 3 team in the country proves that Duke cannot beat a team that "slows" down the game?

I hope you use your powers for good.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-27-2018, 02:45 PM
Duke losing 89-87 in November to the No. 3 team in the country proves that Duke cannot beat a team that "slows" down the game?

I hope you use your powers for good.

Be cool man. This poster has been here for nearly a month. S/he knows of what they speak.

BandAlum83
11-27-2018, 02:45 PM
Duke losing 89-87 in November to the No. 3 team in the country proves that Duke cannot beat a team that "slows" down the game?

I hope you use your powers for good.

Release the Spork!!

HereBeforeCoachK
11-27-2018, 03:08 PM
Duke losing 89-87 in November to the No. 3 team in the country proves that Duke cannot beat a team that "slows" down the game?

I hope you use your powers for good.

Right....cuz nothing says "slow-down" or incapability like an 89-87 score........:rolleyes:

elvis14
11-27-2018, 03:50 PM
I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia. I had an epiphany that these one and done teams will never play good team ball in a set offense so this team's path to a Championship is to keep stressing defense and run, run, run on fast break. We don't shoot the three good enough to slow it down. Duke could not stop Gonzaga and as a result as Jay Bilas said they were taking the ball out of the net so they couldn't get out on the fast break. If Duke can make the defensive stops and run the fast breaks then their assist to turnover will get back to a healthy ratio and they will demoralize teams with dunk after dunk. Let their athleticism and sheer talent shine with this approach. It starts with stressing defense (we have a good start since Tre Jones plays great on ball defense) and ends with a fast break dunk!

Wow, interesting post. Here's a link that shows our results vs UVa (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/matchup_finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=1950&year_max=2019&school_id=duke&opp_id=virginia&comp_school=le&rank_school=ANY&comp_opp=le&rank_opp=ANY&game_type=A&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&is_overtime=&order_by=date_game). We sure do pretty well against them, especially since they are a team that we cannot beat.

As for assist to turnover ratio. How many assists we get is dependent on the style of play we use on offense. Using a 5-out set and relying on guys driving (and sometimes dishing) isn't always going to produce lots of assists. Especially when the guys driving are having success scoring. I will admit, however that I would have loved 1 more assist against Gonzaga. Right now we are better out running the floor than in the half court (most teams are better when they get out and run..when they can). As the season goes on, the gap will close. We will improve in the half court.

Our defense this year is already better than previous years as far as I can see (I know others have stats to show this...I know what I see). I don't see us having to give up on good defense and switch to a zone this year. Note that if you are sitting in the first couple of rows, make sure you are paying attention because Zion's going to peg few innocent bystanders along the way.

johnb
11-28-2018, 04:43 PM
I read this and immediately thought of Laettner missing game-tying free throws as a freshman:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-wCjjMb5aN4
(1:26 mark)
I had forgotten he was only a 70% FT shooter as a freshman.
Fast forward to the Vegas game where he calmly hit 2 FTs to win the game. Very similar situations except in the second instance the game was tied.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jerrybarca/2015/04/02/christian-laettner-and-being-clutch-in-the-ncaa-tournament/#21a9a41c5080
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RLU4leUrUDQ
Even the great ones take time to reach their full potential and it usually isn’t reached in one year.

K's fan criticism induced me to wade into the post game thread--which I generally avoid after losses. The negativism is more annoying, to me, than the giddiness after big wins.

Anyway, RJ's coming up short also reminded me of Laettner's FT misses in the Arizona game during his freshman year--and also reminded me of who consoled Laettner after the loss:

"Laettner first caught the eye of a prominent Duke Law School alumnus, Richard Nixon, when the former president watched him blow a clutch free throw in the Devils' 77-75 loss to Arizona on Feb. 26 at the Meadowlands. Nixon sought Laettner out in the locker room to console him. Says Laettner of their brief summit, "It was a lot of fun."

Sports Illustrated, 1989
https://www.si.com/vault/1989/04/03/119644/up-up-and-away-before-duke-flew-into-the-final-four-by-upending-georgetown-in-a-battle-of-freshmen-centers-illinois-had-climbed-past-syracuse-michigan-had-glided-by-surprising-virginia-and-seton-hall-had-risen-above-unlv

Wildling
11-28-2018, 06:56 PM
I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia. I had an epiphany that these one and done teams will never play good team ball in a set offense so this team's path to a Championship is to keep stressing defense and run, run, run on fast break. We don't shoot the three good enough to slow it down. Duke could not stop Gonzaga and as a result as Jay Bilas said they were taking the ball out of the net so they couldn't get out on the fast break. If Duke can make the defensive stops and run the fast breaks then their assist to turnover will get back to a healthy ratio and they will demoralize teams with dunk after dunk. Let their athleticism and sheer talent shine with this approach. It starts with stressing defense (we have a good start since Tre Jones plays great on ball defense) and ends with a fast break dunk!
Oh, you poor man. You know not of what you speak. The gentlemen here will sort you out. It looks like some of them already have,lol.

This year's team is soooooooooooooooooooooo much different than the past few years I am not really sure where to begin. Others here can properly speak to that much better than I can. But, I'll say this with 100% confidence. Just the mere fact that this year's team can play man to man defense without the worry of maybe having to resort to zone because they can't defend puts this team on another level far from last year's team and those of years past. That alone satisfies the hell out of me.

The fact we have 3 bonafide killers on offense (that's being conservative) that I feel completely confident in that they can get buckets at any time they want, sets my mind at ease so much, that I haven't once screamed at the TV on how they should be playing. They are just playing...............and playing beautifully so far. Sure there are some hiccups, but holy @#$% this team can score! And they score at ease while the other team is trying as hard as they can to stop them. That's how good they are. They are making it look easy to get buckets when in fact the teams they are playing against are doing everything they can to stop them. When's the last time we've seen a team like that? 1999 maybe?

Skydog
11-28-2018, 07:25 PM
As a person who is a bit critical of RJ I want to be clear that this has nothing to do with him making execution mistakes. Missing free throws at end of games, drives turning into turnovers and the like are just part of the game. Everyone misses, everyone makes mistakes, even NBA superstars. So those who are saying "he's just a freshman" or "he wasn't why we lost" are missing the point completely. I - and I think I speak for most of his critics - have little issue with him failing as long as he is playing within the team concept. But "hero ball" -- or whatever you call it when a player has predetermined at the beginning of a possession that he is going to go it alone and his teammates know they aren't going to get the ball back -- does bother me. It bothered me when Rivers did it (except one particular game!), it bothered me when Tatum did it, and it bothered me when JR did it in the Gonzaga game.

Of course Coach K could have set up some plays to free up shooters (including RJ) and I think that would have solved the issue. But from what I saw the whole plan at the end was give it to RJ and watch him drive! Again and again. RJ has shown that tendency already and the coaching staff fed into it.

Or at least that is how it appeared to me. Not a fan.

johnb
11-29-2018, 09:49 AM
As a person who is a bit critical of RJ I want to be clear that this has nothing to do with him making execution mistakes. Missing free throws at end of games, drives turning into turnovers and the like are just part of the game. Everyone misses, everyone makes mistakes, even NBA superstars. So those who are saying "he's just a freshman" or "he wasn't why we lost" are missing the point completely. I - and I think I speak for most of his critics - have little issue with him failing as long as he is playing within the team concept. But "hero ball" -- or whatever you call it when a player has predetermined at the beginning of a possession that he is going to go it alone and his teammates know they aren't going to get the ball back -- does bother me. It bothered me when Rivers did it (except one particular game!), it bothered me when Tatum did it, and it bothered me when JR did it in the Gonzaga game.

Of course Coach K could have set up some plays to free up shooters (including RJ) and I think that would have solved the issue. But from what I saw the whole plan at the end was give it to RJ and watch him drive! Again and again. RJ has shown that tendency already and the coaching staff fed into it.

Or at least that is how it appeared to me. Not a fan.

RJ's approach and skillset do seem at least somewhat akin to Tatum's (I don't see him as particularly similar to Rivers aside from the fact that--like many wings--they like to drive to the basket). As a reminder, Jayson was awesome at Duke and is awesome in the NBA. It seems very likely we'll be saying exactly the same thing about RJ a year from now.

Troublemaker
11-29-2018, 01:15 PM
Checking back in late in this thread since I was busy for Thanksgiving.


The smaller ball lineup was critical for our comeback and I think we’ll see more of that through the season
(again based on matchups). However, I agree with the previous poster, Gonzaga has a better team. We have more talented individuals, but watching the Zags last night reminded me of Duke teams in the late 80s with great teamwork and understanding of roles. I would pick them right now against any other college team.

I think this Duke team also has great teamwork, understanding of roles, and passing. They've been a joy to watch, really. It was only the Gonzaga game where we played more like individuals at times, and I'm not really sure why. I hypothesized in the Phase thread that the gameplan might've overemphasized driving to score, which led to an outlier low number of three point attempts. In any case, until I see it happen again, I consider this team to be one that shares the ball.


That single play was an opportunity to turn the game, for sure. Making the Dunk MAY have created momentum that could have energized Duke for a comeback at that point. Sure. I agree with that, and K supported Tre's decision to go for the Dunk.

My point is that we can't look at the missed dunk and final score to conclude that if had had made that, the score would have been tied at the time of the final buzzer. Maybe if he makes it, we go on a first-half run and win by 15.

If he does a simple lay-in, maybe not much else changes, or one coach makes a different player decision and one team or the other go on to win by 8. There are so many variables, we simply can't say. Basketball is a very dynamic game where a one play interacts with every other play for a through line. A missed basket here or missed free throw there can't be assumed to simply be added to the final score to say, "well if we hit 3 more free throws, we win". If we hit 3 more free throws, everything that happened after would change.

Do you follow my reasoning?

Yes, I agree with you completely. It's also a pet peeve of mine when it comes to playoff series. Remember in the 2017 Finals when the Cavs blew out the Warriors in Game 4 and people lamented how it would've been a tied series had the Cavs not lost a coin flip game in Game 3? As if the Warriors wouldn't have come out with MUCH more effort in Game 4 had they been only leading 2-1 in the series instead of 3-0. It's the so-called butterfly effect, right? You can't change something in the past and expect everything proceeding from that change to remain the same.


I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four.

Do we really want them to be that different from the 2015 team? Also...


Thinking back to the splash that Bags, Carter, and Trent made early last year, I think it’s true that these guys aren’t really more dominant at this point so we’ll have to wait and see.

... c'mon. This team is better than last season's team. No matter how you slice the analysis (stats, eye test, game results), this team is performing much better at the same point. Early on, last season's team had to continue to come back from double-digit deficits against opponents that weren't top-20 like Portland St, Texas, and Florida.

The worst you can say about this season's team is that we lost a coin flip game against a top-5 team in Gonzaga. We kept top-10 Auburn at arm's length the whole game and blew out top 25 Kentucky. I won't even mention the Indiana destruction since you didn't have that data point when you made your post.