Tracking the polls

[wilson]

I'm mildly surprised, but AP poll voters did not succumb to inertia this week, and our Devils have leapfrogged Kansas to take the #1 spot in the latest rankings (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-duke-firmly-overtakes-kansas-for-no-1-spot-in-ap-top-25-poll/). Duke received 48 out of 65 first-place votes.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm mildly surprised, but AP poll voters did not succumb to inertia this week, and our Devils have leapfrogged Kansas to take the #1 spot in the latest rankings (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-duke-firmly-overtakes-kansas-for-no-1-spot-in-ap-top-25-poll/). Duke received 48 out of 65 first-place votes.

Kansas looked good. We looked better.

Doesn't matter over the long haul, but it's hard to argue with leapfrogging us over Kansas.

[cakerace]

Duke jumps Kansas for top spot in AP Top 25 men's hoops after Kentucky blowout, passing UCLA for most all-time No. 1s:


https://collegebasketball.ap.org/article/duke-jumps-kansas-top-spot-ap-top-25-mens-hoops-after-kentucky-blowout-passing-ucla-most-all

[UrinalCake]

It’s pretty rare that a #1 team drops out of the top spot without losing. Even more rare when the beat a top 10 team and still get bumped. Just goes to show how impressive our win was. I was kind of wondering if Kentucky’s less-than-impressive showing in their next game would cast some doubts in the minds of voters, but it looks like they are all aboard the Duke hype train!

This also works out great for ESPN, they can paint us as the heavily favored juggernaut and then when we inevitably lose a game they’ll call it a shocking upset.

[elvis14]

AP Top 25



RANK
SCHOOL
RECORD
POINTS
PREVIOUS




1
Duke (48)
2-0
1,606
4


2
Kansas (14)
1-0
1,571
1


3
Gonzaga (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/GONZAG/gonzaga-bulldogs)
2-0
1,478
3


4
Virginia (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/UVA/virginia-cavaliers) (2)
2-0
1,326
5


5
Tennessee (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/TENN/tennessee-volunteers) (1)
2-0
1,306
6


6
Nevada (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/NEVADA/nevada-wolf-pack)
2-0
1,277
7


7
North Carolina (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/UNC/north-carolina-tar-heels)
2-0
1,260
8


8
Villanova (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/NOVA/villanova-wildcats)
2-0
1,139
9


9
Auburn (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/AUBURN/auburn-tigers)
2-0
1,132
11


10
Kentucky
1-1
1,054
2


11
Michigan State (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/MICHST/michigan-state-spartans)
1-1
919
11


12
Kansas State (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/KSTATE/kansas-state-wildcats)
1-0
892
12


13
Oregon (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/OREG/oregon-ducks)
2-0
739
14


14
Florida State (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/FSU/florida-state-seminoles)
2-0
731
17


15
Syracuse (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/CUSE/syracuse-orange)
2-0
673
16


16
Virginia Tech (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/VATECH/virginia-tech-hokies)
1-0
664
15


17
Mississippi State (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/MISSST/mississippi-state-bulldogs)
2-0
549
18


18
Michigan (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/MICH/michigan-wolverines)
2-0
486
19


19
Clemson (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/CLEM/clemson-tigers)
2-0
350
22


20
UCLA (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/UCLA/ucla-bruins)
2-0
340
21


21
TCU (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/TCU/tcu-horned-frogs)
2-0
323
20


22
LSU (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/LSU/lsu-tigers)
2-0
248
23


23
Purdue (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/PURDUE/purdue-boilermakers)
2-0
218
24


24
Marquette (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/MARQET/marquette-golden-eagles)
2-0
155
—


25
Buffalo
2-0
154
—


Others receiving votes: West Virginia 145, Indiana (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/IND/indiana-hoosiers) 131, Nebraska (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/NEB/nebraska-cornhuskers) 41, Wisconsin (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/WISC/wisconsin-badgers) 32, Washington (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/WASH/washington-huskies) 29, Maryland (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/MD/maryland-terrapins) 28, Notre Dame 24, Miami 16, Ohio (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/OHIO/ohio-bobcats) St. 14, Alabama (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/BAMA/alabama-crimson-tide) 11, Iowa (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/IOWA/iowa-hawkeyes)St. 9, Florida (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/FLA/florida-gators) 9, Louisville (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/LVILLE/louisville-cardinals) 8, Texas (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/TEXAS/texas-longhorns) 6, Texas Tech (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/TXTECH/texas-tech-red-raiders) 5, Arizona (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/ARIZ/arizona-wildcats) St 4, Butler (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/BUTLER/butler-bulldogs) 4, Vanderbilt (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/VANDY/vanderbilt-commodores) 4, Loyola of Chicago 3, Arizona 2, St. John's 2, Marshall (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/MRSHL/marshall-thundering-herd) 2, Xavier 2, Penn (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/PENN/pennsylvania-quakers) 1, Furman (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/FURMAN/furman-paladins) 1, Davidson (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/DAVID/davidson-wildcats) 1, S Illinois (https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/page/ILL/illinois-fighting-illini) 1.

So that's 6 ACC Schools and UNCheat ranked with ND, Miami, Lou getting votes. It's going to be an interesting year.

[OldPhiKap]

Who is voting Tennessee for #1? Really?

[wilson]

It’s pretty rare that a #1 team drops out of the top spot without losing. Even more rare when the beat a top 10 team and still get bumped.Just the fourth time a #1 team has dropped without losing.
8803

[UrinalCake]

Just the fourth time a #1 team has dropped without losing.
8803

Awesome stat, thanks for finding that. Interesting that all three scenarios involved the preseason #1 dropping after the first week. The tweet doesn’t really clarify whether it has ever happened DURING the season, but the implication is that it has not. Also interesting that’s kentucky had its hands in all three of those other cases too.

[budwom]

I'm mildly surprised, but AP poll voters did not succumb to inertia this week, and our Devils have leapfrogged Kansas to take the #1 spot in the latest rankings (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-duke-firmly-overtakes-kansas-for-no-1-spot-in-ap-top-25-poll/). Duke received 48 out of 65 first-place votes.

Kansas is lucky they got dropped this week because tonight the vicious Vermont Catamounts invade Allen Fieldhouse and there are going to be Jayhawk feathers everywhere. Cleanup on aisle six!
Reasonably good doubleheader tonight, Stanford at unc-holeville, then the Catamounts have at it. *

*OK, so actually it's not one of Vermont's better teams, but still....

[subzero02]

Who is voting Tennessee for #1? Really?

It's John Feinstein( @JFeinsteinBooks ) from the Washington Post. He also has us at #3. Only one other voter had us ranked this low, Lauren Brownlow of WRAL durham.



https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/

Incidentally, Duke Vitale is one of the 14 voters who kept Kansas at #1. Just click on a team to see who voted for them and the rankings assigned by each voter. Although the polls are pretty meaningless during this time of the year, I like this site.

[OldPhiKap]

It's John Feinstein( @JFeinsteinBooks ) from the Washington Post. He also has us at #3. Only one other voter had us ranked this low, Lauren Brownlow of WRAL durham.



https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/

Incidentally, Duke Vitale is one of the 14 voters who kept Kansas at #1. Just click on a team to see who voted for them and the rankings assigned by each voter. Although the polls are pretty meaningless during this time of the year, I like this site.

Thanks.

Never heard of Brownlow, but Google informs me that she is a UNC grad:

https://www.wralsportsfan.com/rs/bio/13882579/

She also has UVA #1, UNC#5 and FSU#10.

Feinstein is, well, Feinstein.

I wouldn't keep Kansas #1 but don't have a problem with those who did.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Thanks.

Never heard of Brownlow, but Google informs me that she is a UNC grad:

https://www.wralsportsfan.com/rs/bio/13882579/

She also has UVA #1, UNC#5 and FSU#10.

Feinstein is, well, Feinstein.

I wouldn't keep Kansas #1 but don't have a problem with those who did.

I like her and Joe Ovies, they are fun and informative, especially in their ACC Panic Room videos. Brownlow also does the Sad Panther Fan, which is a humorous (and not always sad) continuing look at the Panther's season.
She voted UVA as her #1, which is rather bizarre.
https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/pollster/lauren-brownlow/2018/week-2

Congrats to Wojo for getting Marquette into the top 25 this week, too!

[Messimorgan17]

I'm mildly surprised, but AP poll voters did not succumb to inertia this week, and our Devils have leapfrogged Kansas to take the #1 spot in the latest rankings (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-duke-firmly-overtakes-kansas-for-no-1-spot-in-ap-top-25-poll/). Duke received 48 out of 65 first-place votes.

all the media jumping on the bandwagon.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

all the media jumping on the bandwagon.

I thought some would've jumped back off yesterday.

[Wahoo2000]

I like her and Joe Ovies, they are fun and informative, especially in their ACC Panic Room videos. Brownlow also does the Sad Panther Fan, which is a humorous (and not always sad) continuing look at the Panther's season.
She voted UVA as her #1, which is rather bizarre.
https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/pollster/lauren-brownlow/2018/week-2

Congrats to Wojo for getting Marquette into the top 25 this week, too!

She also does preview articles for ACC league contests in both football and basketball that are quite well known for her use of humorous GIFs. Despite my extremely bland description, they are freaking hilarious. Highly recommend.

Once league play gets up and running, I'll try to remember and link one. You might even be able to find a football one right now if you're so inclined.

[CDu]

I like her and Joe Ovies, they are fun and informative, especially in their ACC Panic Room videos. Brownlow also does the Sad Panther Fan, which is a humorous (and not always sad) continuing look at the Panther's season.
She voted UVA as her #1, which is rather bizarre.
https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/pollster/lauren-brownlow/2018/week-2

Congrats to Wojo for getting Marquette into the top 25 this week, too!

Despite being a UNC grad, she has long been a huge admirer of Tony Bennett’s work at UVA, especially vis-a-vis Duke in the one-and-done era. In that context, I don’t find her vote for UVA all that surprising.

[BandAlum83]

It's John Feinstein( @JFeinsteinBooks ) from the Washington Post. He also has us at #3. Only one other voter had us ranked this low, Lauren Brownlow of WRAL durham.



https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/

Incidentally, Duke Vitale is one of the 14 voters who kept Kansas at #1. Just click on a team to see who voted for them and the rankings assigned by each voter. Although the polls are pretty meaningless during this time of the year, I like this site.

Isn't John a Duke grad?

[Messimorgan17]

Isn't John a Duke grad?

Correct. He prides himself on being objective. So perhaps trying to be more conservative and not jump on th3 bandwagon.

[budwom]

^ he's also bitter about some stuff, not even worth rehashing.

[moonpie23]

actually, duke isn't even 1st in the acc (https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article221581990.html)

[uh_no]

actually, duke isn't even 1st in the acc (https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article221581990.html)

do you think it was scraping by wofford or walloping elon that put them over the top?

[Kedsy]

actually, duke isn't even 1st in the acc (https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article221581990.html)

Now here's a guy I would cheerfully bet a pie with.

[arnie]

Now here's a guy I would cheerfully bet a pie with.

Giglio is a total clown and Pack homer. He still has the Pack very high in his ACC football ratings and Duke down aways below GaTech. He simply plays to his base(local State and Cheat fans) without even researching Duke. He remains convinced that Duke can’t be great since past several OAD teams weren’t. I’m actually surprised he rates us this high in ACC.

[sagegrouse]

actually, duke isn't even 1st in the acc (https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article221581990.html)

The N&O's Joe Giglio ranks UNC #1, Virginia #2, and Duke #3 in the ACC.

Channeling Louis Prima,

"I'm just a Giglio and everywhere I go
People know I'm UNC's homer
Paid for every stance, selling each romance
Now I'm cookin' the rankings

"I'm just a Giglio..."

[devildeac]

The N&O's Joe Giglio ranks UNC #1, Virginia #2, and Duke #3 in the ACC.

Channeling Louis Prima,

"I'm just a Giglio and everywhere I go
People know I'm UNC's homer
Paid for every stance, selling each romance
Now I'm cookin' the rankings

"I'm just a Giglio..."

Yea, he stole it from Louis, but this is still pretty funny stuff:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lN-4lX0QyZc

Curses to you sage, now I'm going to be singing this all day. :p

[OldPhiKap]

The N&O's Joe Giglio ranks UNC #1, Virginia #2, and Duke #3 in the ACC.



Preseason I would have predicted the final ACC standings to be: (1) UVA; (2) UNC; (3) Duke.

While obviously floored by how good we looked against Kentucky, I still do not think that order by the end of the regular season is unreasonable.

I wouldn't put UNC as the best of the three but Luke Maye is a real player and they have good talent. If they fit Roy's system, they will be tough.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The N&O's Joe Giglio ranks UNC #1, Virginia #2, and Duke #3 in the ACC.

Channeling Louis Prima,

"I'm just a Giglio and everywhere I go
People know I'm UNC's homer
Paid for every stance, selling each romance
Now I'm cookin' the rankings

"I'm just a Giglio..."

HAH, that's about right. I've no problem with anyone ranking the teams that way, but when a smart axxed Cheat fan does it with an attitude, get's my quills on end.

[sagegrouse]

Preseason I would have predicted the final ACC standings to be: (1) UVA; (2) UNC; (3) Duke.

While obviously floored by how good we looked against Kentucky, I still do not think that order by the end of the regular season is unreasonable.

I wouldn't put UNC as the best of the three but Luke Maye is a real player and they have good talent. If they fit Roy's system, they will be tough.

You make a lot of sense. But that's pre-season reasoning. Who knows how the teams will play when the season starts? Well, we have some idea now. Duke thrashed the #2-ranked team in the country and everyone else had predictable wins against weak opposition. I would tilt my rankings at least a bit towards real world results. And, what's surprising is the overt "homerism" on display. Hey, Joe Giglio, put Duke #1 and say you don't believe it will last. Rather than say, in effect, "I don't believe my eyes."

[ncexnyc]

I guess I missed the announcement that a #1 ranking in the ACC polls entitled us to a free fill-up at the local gas station. I mean why else would so many people be upset with Joe G's article?

At least he gave a plausible reason for his choices. UVA with their system has proven they deserve the #1 slot until shown otherwise and honestly we've managed to sell UNC short for several years in a row. Our recruiting classes these past few season have been off the charts, but what hardware do we have to show for it?

Anyhow, it's a long season and we shall soon see how everything plays out, enjoy the ride.

[sagegrouse]

Preseason I would have predicted the final ACC standings to be: (1) UVA; (2) UNC; (3) Duke.

While obviously floored by how good we looked against Kentucky, I still do not think that order by the end of the regular season is unreasonable.

I wouldn't put UNC as the best of the three but Luke Maye is a real player and they have good talent. If they fit Roy's system, they will be tough.

You make a lot of sense. But that's pre-season reasoning. Who knows how the teams will play when the season starts? Well, we have some idea now. Duke thrashed the #2-ranked team in the country and everyone else had predictable wins against weak opposition. I would tilt my rankings at least a bit towards real world results. And, what's surprising is the overt "homerism" on display. Hey, Joe Giglio, put Duke #1 and say you don't believe it will last. Rather than say, in effect, "I don't believe my eyes -- Duke didn't beat Kentucky by 34 points."

[jv001]

Preseason I would have predicted the final ACC standings to be: (1) UVA; (2) UNC; (3) Duke.

While obviously floored by how good we looked against Kentucky, I still do not think that order by the end of the regular season is unreasonable.

I wouldn't put UNC as the best of the three but Luke Maye is a real player and they have good talent. If they fit Roy's system, they will be tough.

But I bet you still don't like them very much. :cool: GoDuke!

[OldPhiKap]

You make a lot of sense. But that's pre-season reasoning. Who knows how the teams will play when the season starts? Well, we have some idea now. Duke thrashed the #2-ranked team in the country and everyone else had predictable wins against weak opposition. I would tilt my rankings at least a bit towards real world results. And, what's surprising is the overt "homerism" on display. Hey, Joe Giglio, put Duke #1 and say you don't believe it will last. Rather than say, in effect, "I don't believe my eyes."

I don't disagree with any of this, and in fact endorse same.

[OldPhiKap]

But I bet you still don't like them very much. :cool: GoDuke!

You would win that bet. GTH,C!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I guess I missed the announcement that a #1 ranking in the ACC polls entitled us to a free fill-up at the local gas station. I mean why else would so many people be upset with Joe G's article?
.

EASY.
A: His snotty tone in the article and
B: his love of the cheats.
C: not really upset, just firing back at him a little

Next question.

[JasonEvans]

While I don't give any hoey about what a local sportswriter says about ACC power rankings, there is one aspect of this that I want to address because I think it is a huge fallacy.


He remains convinced that Duke can’t be great since past several OAD teams weren’t.

Duke has truly embraced the one-and-done philosophy in four seasons. I say that years where we have multiple OAD players on the roster are years where the team is largely built around OAD players. Here are the seasons where that has happened:

2015 - national title
2017 - ACC tournament title
2018 - Final 8, lose in OT in a game that could have gone either way
2019 - The jury is still out, but it sure looks good so far

I'm sorry, but deeming the OAD era anything but a massive success is a joke and a product of ridiculously unrealistic expectations.

[ChillinDuke]

I guess I missed the announcement that a #1 ranking in the ACC polls entitled us to a free fill-up at the local gas station. I mean why else would so many people be upset with Joe G's article?

At least he gave a plausible reason for his choices. UVA with their system has proven they deserve the #1 slot until shown otherwise and honestly we've managed to sell UNC short for several years in a row. Our recruiting classes these past few season have been off the charts, but what hardware do we have to show for it?

Anyhow, it's a long season and we shall soon see how everything plays out, enjoy the ride.

Until shown otherwise? Did you watch UVA's last game last year? That deserves #1 slot?

I respect the heck out of UVA, but c'mon now. Duke may or may not have been clearly ahead of UVA preseason, but they're surely ahead now by any objective observer.

- Chillin

[uh_no]

While I don't give any hoey about what a local sportswriter says about ACC power rankings, there is one aspect of this that I want to address because I think it is a huge fallacy.



Duke has truly embraced the one-and-done philosophy in four seasons. I say that years where we have multiple OAD players on the roster are years where the team is largely built around OAD players. Here are the seasons where that has happened:

2015 - national title
2017 - ACC tournament title
2018 - Final 8, lose in OT in a game that could have gone either way
2019 - The jury is still out, but it sure looks good so far

I'm sorry, but deeming the OAD era anything but a massive success is a joke and a product of ridiculously unrealistic expectations.


i don't disagree with the thesis, but selectively ignoring the two largest first round upsets in Duke history is a bit disingenuous.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

i don't disagree with the thesis, but selectively ignoring the two largest first round upsets in Duke history is a bit disingenuous.

Are you thinking 2014? Would not call that a OAD team.
2016? Second round, many injuries, very difficult venue.

[JasonEvans]

Are you thinking 2014? Would not call that a OAD team.
2016? Second round, many injuries, very difficult venue.

Yup, 2014 had 1 OAD player. It is no more a OAD team than 2011 was with Kyrie Irving.

2016 was a highly successful season that included a 4-game run in the ACC tourney that is among the finest accomplishments of any Duke team that did not win a national title. Yeah, they ran into a buzz saw in what amounted to a road game in the NCAA tourney, which was really disappointing, but that season was hardly a poor one.


i don't disagree with the thesis, but selectively ignoring the two largest first round upsets in Duke history is a bit disingenuous.

It is possible he is talking about the 2012 loss to Lehigh, but Austin Rivers was the only OAD player on a team that was otherwise full of experienced players. I don't know how anyone could see that as some failure of the OAD embrace.

[wilson]

It is possible he is talking about the 2012 loss to Lehigh, but Austin Rivers was the only OAD player on a team that was otherwise full of experienced players. I don't know how anyone could see that as some failure of the OAD embrace.Say what you will about the presence of the one OAD on the 2012 team (and many of us have said a lot about rightfully strong feelings about that team), but without that one OAD, we wouldn't have this:

https://youtu.be/w1af8KnM0_c?t=138
The Lehigh loss was of course painful, but that Dean Dome shot is still so, so tasty.

[Kedsy]

i don't disagree with the thesis, but selectively ignoring the two largest first round upsets in Duke history is a bit disingenuous.

See that's the thing. Having one OAD player doesn't make it an "OAD team." Here is the percentage of minutes played by freshmen in each of the last 10 seasons:

2009: 10.5% (S16)
2010: 14.5% (title)
2011: 10.9% (S16)
2012: 23.8% (1st rd)
2013: 23.6% (E8)
2014: 19.8% (1st rd)
2015: 50.0% (title)
2016: 46.8% (S16)
2017: 33.4% (2nd rd)
2018: 67.5% (E8)

2012 wasn't a freshman-dominated team any more than 2013 was (and 2013 was considered a veteran team). And 2014 had fewer freshman minutes than either.

I agree with Jason that the only years we truly had a freshman-centric team were the last four seasons (and of those four, the team that that did worst in the NCAA tournament was the team that had the fewest freshman minutes).

[sagegrouse]

See that's the thing. Having one OAD player doesn't make it an "OAD team." Here is the percentage of minutes played by freshmen in each of the last 10 seasons:

2009: 10.5% (S16)
2010: 14.5% (title)
2011: 10.9% (S16)
2012: 23.8% (1st rd)
2013: 23.6% (E8)
2014: 19.8% (1st rd)
2015: 50.0% (title)
2016: 46.8% (S16)
2017: 33.4% (2nd rd)
2018: 67.5% (E8)

2012 wasn't a freshman-dominated team any more than 2013 was (and 2013 was considered a veteran team). And 2014 had fewer freshman minutes than either.

I agree with Jason that the only years we truly had a freshman-centric team were the last four seasons (and of those four, the team that that did worst in the NCAA tournament was the team that had the fewest freshman minutes).

Alternatively, we can also use a metric that values the regular season. In this case, I use NCAA tournament seeding (I found a page on Wiki that had all the data in one table).

'09 2 10.50% S16)
'10 1 14.50% title)
'11 1 10.90% S16)
'12 2 23.80% 1st rd)
'13 2 23.60% E8)
'14 3 19.80% 1st rd)
'15 1 50.00% title)
'16 4 46.80% S16)
'17 2 33.40% 2nd rd)
'18 2 67.50% E8)

It's the last four years where freshman have been so prominent in playing time. Have we done worse the last four years than the six previous years? Let's see.... The last four years we have been seeded an average of 2.25 but won a total of 12 NCAA games (average of three). The six previous years we were seeded an average of 1.83 and won 13 NCAA games (average of 2.17). Not much difference, I would say.

We didn't win as many games as the seeding would predict (which is inevitably the case for high-seeded teams).

[UrinalCake]

Preseason I would have predicted the final ACC standings to be: (1) UVA; (2) UNC; (3) Duke.

I actually agree with that, but a big part of it is that Duke’s conference schedule this season is brutal. Two games apiece against UVA, CHeats and Syracuse which are the three best other teams. Road-only games against ND, VT, FSU, and Louisville. The Cheats’ schedule is much easier. And to be fair, the reverse was true last season.

As for UVA, they’ve had the best regular season record for what, three years in a row now? And they have more talent this year than last. So it seems reasonable to give them the benefit of the doubt. Their style of play might make them ripe for an upset in the tournament, but they are also very consistent across the season and starting right out of the gate.

If we’re picking odds of winning the title then that’s a very different thing. For regular season standings, having us three is reasonable.

[richardjackson199]

Interestingly UVA is #1 in the new Coaches poll:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

KJ Maura is getting free travel, ticket, and great seat for a big game. Kudos to him.

[UrinalCake]

Doesn’t make much sense that UVA jumped us. You could say we struggled against TT, but we still beat a borderline top-10 team while UVA still hasn’t beaten anybody.

AP poll has us back at #1 8-)

[obowl1955]

I'd be scared to be number one if I was Virginia. Usually when their ranked one a colossal upset follows(UMBC, Chaminade).

[brevity]

Doesn’t make much sense that UVA jumped us. You could say we struggled against TT, but we still beat a borderline top-10 team while UVA still hasn’t beaten anybody.

"That AP voter (https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/sports/columnists/graham-couch/2018/12/10/graham-couch-ap-top-25-college-basketball-ballot-why-duke-kansas-tennessee-didnt-make/2264942002/) convinced us. Duke is winless in true road games, while Virginia won at Maryland and at South Carolina." -- 10 of 32 coaches, apparently

[HereBeforeCoachK]

"That AP voter (https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/sports/columnists/graham-couch/2018/12/10/graham-couch-ap-top-25-college-basketball-ballot-why-duke-kansas-tennessee-didnt-make/2264942002/) convinced us. Duke is winless in true road games, while Virginia won at Maryland and at South Carolina." -- 10 of 32 coaches, apparently

Because Gonzaga, Auburn, UK, TT on neutral courts are so much easier games than at SC......

[JetpackJesus]

Doesn’t make much sense that UVA jumped us. You could say we struggled against TT, but we still beat a borderline top-10 team while UVA still hasn’t beaten anybody.

AP poll has us back at #1 8-)

If an undefeated team were going to jump Duke, I would've expected it to be Michigan, I guess.

Meanwhile, Gary Parrish has Tennessee at 1 over Duke in his 25+1 thing (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=1110740). His reasoning--UT is the only school that checks all four of the boxes he selected because only UT satisfies all of them--is dumb.

[subzero02]

At a minimum, we have played or will play 9(gonzaga, auburn, uva, Texas tech, va. Tech, NC state, unc, fsu and indiana) of the 24 other teams in the current AP top 25. There might be a few teams who will have played tougher schedules than us when the brackets come out, but you'll probably be able to count those teams on one hand.

[OldPhiKap]

I have no problem with us being ranked anywhere between 1 and 5. UVA, Tennessee, Kansas and Michigan are very worthy teams. (Have not seen Nevada so no opinion on them).

I do think, however, that we still have the biggest room for growth of the group. I like where we are holistically, regardless of ranking.

[UrinalCake]

Gary Parrish has Tennessee at 1 over Duke in his 25+1 thing (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=1110740). His reasoning--UT is the only school that checks all four of the boxes he selected because only UT satisfies all of them--is dumb.

I don’t agree with his reasoning (if you wanted to create for “boxes” that Duke has checked and no other team has, you could easily do that). But at least he had Tennessee above us prior to Kansas losing. He had Kansas/Tenn/Duke, so we both just bumped up a spot. The Coaches poll as a whole had Kansas/Duke/UVA last week, which means enough people felt that UVA beating South Carolina and William & Mary was worth significantly more than us beating Texas Tech.

The narrative of not having a true road win has unfortunately begun to garner media attention, and voters are susceptible to it. The sad thing is that our conference road schedule is absolutely BRUTAL, yet some idiot voters will decide that it doesn’t “count” because we didn’t CHOOSE to play those games.

[Rich]

Because Gonzaga, Auburn, UK, TT on neutral courts are so much easier games than at SC...

Tell that to the Duke 2017 NCAA Tourney team. Too soon?

[subzero02]

Tell that to the Duke 2017 NCAA Tourney team. Too soon?

If that game had gone our way, we had a good chance to win another title and prevent unc from winning one. It might not ever be time for that joke.

[ice-9]

I don’t agree with his reasoning (if you wanted to create for “boxes” that Duke has checked and no other team has, you could easily do that). But at least he had Tennessee above us prior to Kansas losing. He had Kansas/Tenn/Duke, so we both just bumped up a spot. The Coaches poll as a whole had Kansas/Duke/UVA last week, which means enough people felt that UVA beating South Carolina and William & Mary was worth significantly more than us beating Texas Tech.

The narrative of not having a true road win has unfortunately begun to garner media attention, and voters are susceptible to it. The sad thing is that our conference road schedule is absolutely BRUTAL, yet some idiot voters will decide that it doesn’t “count” because we didn’t CHOOSE to play those games.

I don’t think coaches think that deeply. My guess is there is a large contingent of coaches who would prefer to vote for an undefeated team as #1. So all those voters went from Kansas to Virginia.

[camion]

I don’t think coaches think that deeply. My guess is there is a large contingent of coaches who would prefer to vote for an undefeated team as #1. So all those voters went from Kansas to Virginia.

I'm good with UVA being number one. I'd prefer to enter our first game with Virginia with us chasing them rather than them chasing us.



And Merry Christmas

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Tell that to the Duke 2017 NCAA Tourney team. Too soon?

That analogy doesn't work for a number of reasons......

[lotusland]

I don’t agree with his reasoning (if you wanted to create for “boxes” that Duke has checked and no other team has, you could easily do that). But at least he had Tennessee above us prior to Kansas losing. He had Kansas/Tenn/Duke, so we both just bumped up a spot. The Coaches poll as a whole had Kansas/Duke/UVA last week, which means enough people felt that UVA beating South Carolina and William & Mary was worth significantly more than us beating Texas Tech.

The narrative of not having a true road win has unfortunately begun to garner media attention, and voters are susceptible to it. The sad thing is that our conference road schedule is absolutely BRUTAL, yet some idiot voters will decide that it doesn’t “count” because we didn’t CHOOSE to play those games.

Parrish puts some thought into his weekly top 25+1 but he doesn’t take it that seriously and generally makes fun of various fan base members getting bent out of shape about it. It’s a meaningless metric.

Also South Carolina is abysmal this year at home, on the road and in neutral venues. The seat is going to warm up for Martin this year although being just 2-years removed from a final 4 may give him another year or so. Most people feel like his coaching style is unlikely to attract and keep enough talent to build a successful program.

[Indoor66]

Most people feel like his coaching style is unlikely to attract and keep enough talent to build a successful program.

He does come across as more than slightly psychotic when you watch his antics. I could never understand that hire in the first place.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

He does come across as more than slightly psychotic when you watch his antics. I could never understand that hire in the first place.

Coaches who have such huge personality traits often flame out quickly at a given place. So I was thinking about ole Frank on this. As I have ties to Gamecock land.... a couple years ago, when the Gamecocks were kind of tanking late in the year (who knew they were about to go on a FF run) I asked a well placed friend if the 'Cocks were tiring of Frank's act. He said no, that the players LOVE Frank. And Frank was a hit in the NCAAT that year. And frankly, they played extremely well and could've easily beaten the Zags in the semis.

But now I wonder. Two older players on that team (Silva and Kotsar) are not playing well....maybe the Martin act is tiring after all.

[budwom]

Coaches who have such huge personality traits often flame out quickly at a given place. So I was thinking about ole Frank on this. As I have ties to Gamecock land... a couple years ago, when the Gamecocks were kind of tanking late in the year (who knew they were about to go on a FF run) I asked a well placed friend if the 'Cocks were tiring of Frank's act. He said no, that the players LOVE Frank. And Frank was a hit in the NCAAT that year. And frankly, they played extremely well and could've easily beaten the Zags in the semis.

But now I wonder. Two older players on that team (Silva and Kotsar) are not playing well...maybe the Martin act is tiring after all.

SC can boast that they have had Franks coming and going...Martin now, McGuire ruled the roost when Dimwit Dietzel (AD) took them out of the ACC because academic requirements were too stringent for his liking...nothing like blaming someone else for your crappy 4-6-1 record, Paul. Frank McGuire completely freaked out (for good reason) and the football glory Dietzel sought never materialized, of course....

[JasonEvans]

I'm good with UVA being number one. I'd prefer to enter our first game with Virginia with us chasing them rather than them chasing us.

The media gets all hyped about a #1 vs #2 game... I wonder if there has ever been a #1 vs #1 matchup?!?! History in the making here folks! I am rooting for both of these teams to remain in their current spot until the Jan 19th matchup!

-Jason "https://www.freeplays.com/img/logos/number1_pic.jpg" Evans

[devildeac]

The media gets all hyped about a #1 vs #2 game... I wonder if there has ever been a #1 vs #1 matchup?!?! History in the making here folks! I am rooting for both of these teams to remain in their current spot until the Jan 19th matchup!

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0KGLjvUpX6rmu9f1FaUHHUyLU9pN0KvEMhtDWbML7nJsv7N/qdnwffkqPxBgPmcNvx+qGa7ua9fA3pStI6NXzguBAEBRrKpkMb 5pCGsiY+R7jwDGgkn0C2jFyaitWDTWjOgc2L1MmKYkHxwzymVk N9maRh9hpPFkYaGtvxIGVuJ7tfHRw1NUaObStfkvd/grqnvPekblo6WOGNsUTGsYwBrGNAa1rewALhSk5Pek7ssFZagI AgCA8yMDgWuAIcC1zSLgg5EEHiFlNp3QLHolovDhrZo4Cdieod O1p4saWtG7vzALTbuPmbmNx08W4SnqlbvzeZrGKjoX5UjYIAgC AIDE9aGBPrsNkiibtSsdHNC3mXtNiB3ljnDzVvA1lSrJvTRmlS O9GxR1daDR4XFtv2X1MrRvpeIaOO6j7G9p4uIueQG+Nxsq8rLK K0Xq/7kYp01FGZKiSBAEAQFCto4pmGKZjHseLOY9oc0jvBW9OpOnJTg 7Nc0Yauaf011OkXnws34k0j3Z/y5Dx8HevJew2b8TaQxf/ACXqvVeRBOjziZ7q5x99ZRgVAc2ppj0eqY9pbIJGjJ7mnMXbY+ O12Lg7YwccPiG6ecJZxa0t08P1YlpyuszKlyjcIClU07JG7EjQ 5pIJacwbEEXHMXCypNO6BVWAEAQBAEAQBAEAQBAEAQBAEAQBAE AQBAEAQFEUkYkMwa0PcwRueBZzmA3DXHnYk2vwubcSt+JJw3L5 a2MWKy0Mn//Z" Evans

WTH?

I did that in chat once and JBD posted, "Please stop."

:p

[devildeac]

The media gets all hyped about a #1 vs #2 game... I wonder if there has ever been a #1 vs #1 matchup?!?! History in the making here folks! I am rooting for both of these teams to remain in their current spot until the Jan 19th matchup!

-Jason "https://www.freeplays.com/img/logos/number1_pic.jpg" Evans

UMBC*






























*
U
May
Be
Correct

:o

[JasonEvans]

WTH?

I did that in chat once and JBD posted, "Please stop."

:p

There was a little 15 second window where my attempt to post an image resulted in some gobbledy-gook before I could fix it. You happened to find that window. Sorry.

[TruBlu]

There was a little 15 second window where my attempt to post an image resulted in some gobbledy-gook before I could fix it. You happened to find that window. Sorry.

Don’t worry. It still made more sense than most of my posts.

[OldPhiKap]

There was a little 15 second window where my attempt to post an image resulted in some gobbledy-gook before I could fix it. You happened to find that window. Sorry.

You gotta get up pretty early in the morning to stay ahead of dd.

(Or in my case, just waking up from the first Christmas nap of the day).

[devildeac]

There was a little 15 second window where my attempt to post an image resulted in some gobbledy-gook before I could fix it. You happened to find that window. Sorry.

No apology necessary. I actually found it rather amusing, especially considering I had never seen that craziness before until it happened to me :eek::D.

Plus, that was one helluva signature:).

[Eternal Outlaw]

The media gets all hyped about a #1 vs #2 game... I wonder if there has ever been a #1 vs #1 matchup?!?! History in the making here folks! I am rooting for both of these teams to remain in their current spot until the Jan 19th matchup!

-Jason "https://www.freeplays.com/img/logos/number1_pic.jpg" Evans

Happened at least once, February 25th, 2007 Ohio State and Wisconsin were 1-2 and 2-1 in the polls and played.

[BandAlum83]

Happened at least once, February 25th, 2007 Ohio State and Wisconsin were 1-2 and 2-1 in the polls and played.

Well there's a buzzkill, lol

[UrinalCake]

Happened at least once, February 25th, 2007 Ohio State and Wisconsin were 1-2 and 2-1 in the polls and played.

I think it happened more recently, just a couple years ago when Kansas played Oklahoma and they were 1-2/2-1 in the two polls. It was Buddy Hield’s senior year iirc.

[niveklaen]

I think it happened more recently, just a couple years ago when Kansas played Oklahoma and they were 1-2/2-1 in the two polls. It was Buddy Hield’s senior year iirc.

I thought that Duke/UNC had played as 1-2/2-1 in the polls once or twice?

If those are really the only two times this century its doubly absurd as those schools come from two 'power' conferences that each have only 1 title since 1990 - same number as the Mountain West and the American Athletic Conference...

(I think that UCONN's last title came with them...)

[uh_no]

I thought that Duke/UNC had played as 1-2/2-1 in the polls once or twice?

If those are really the only two times this century its doubly absurd as those schools come from two 'power' conferences that each have only 1 title since 1990 - same number as the Mountain West and the American Athletic Conference...

(I think that UCONN's last title came with them...)

UL's title too....oh wait...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Andy Katz is not a big fan of Duke or the ACC relative....with his "Power 36"

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-12-23/michigan-holds-steady-kentucky-and-arizona-state-leap-andy

[richardjackson199]

UVA back to Number 1 in the Coaches Poll after beating FSU.

It's kinda funny the coaches poll keeps shifting them back and forth without anybody losing. Hopefully it stays that way for a while and we can settle it soon on the court in Cameron:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

[Wahoo2000]

UVA back to Number 1 in the Coaches Poll after beating FSU.

It's kinda funny the coaches poll keeps shifting them back and forth without anybody losing. Hopefully it stays that way for a while and we can settle it soon on the court in Cameron:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

I don't think UVa garnered any additional points/1st place votes, but that Duke lost a bit of ground to Tenn and Mich (plus one voter didn't submit ballot this week and I believe it was one with Duke in first)

Really don't think there's much separation period (resume-wise, eyeball test-wise) among the top 4 overall on the season. You could make VERY valid #1 arguments for each. I would readily admit that Duke has the highest ceiling though.

[W&LHoo]

Ideal scenario is that UVA is #1 in coaches poll and Duke is #1 in AP when we play.

Love the hype around #1 v #1.

[pfrduke]

Andy Katz is not a big fan of Duke or the ACC relative...with his "Power 36"

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-12-23/michigan-holds-steady-kentucky-and-arizona-state-leap-andy

Although dated today, there’s no way that can actually have been written today. It ignores Arizona State’s post-Kansas record, Kansas’s loss to Iowa State, Kentucky’s loss to Alabama, and a host of other early January results.

[brevity]

Andy Katz is not a big fan of Duke or the ACC relative...with his "Power 36"

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-12-23/michigan-holds-steady-kentucky-and-arizona-state-leap-andy


Although dated today, there’s no way that can actually have been written today. It ignores Arizona State’s post-Kansas record, Kansas’s loss to Iowa State, Kentucky’s loss to Alabama, and a host of other early January results.

The full URL of the above link says it was dated December 23. (HereBeforeCoachK posted it on December 28.) Andy Katz has gone from text to a 27-minute video post -- and with that mellifluous voice, why not? -- and you can find that here (https://www.ncaa.com/video/basketball-men/2019-01-07/mbk-andy-katz-power-36). He seems to be apologizing for an earlier glitch where UNC was missing from his Power 36, which would have been amusing to see.

1/7/2019 video: https://www.ncaa.com/video/basketball-men/2019-01-07/mbk-andy-katz-power-36

[pfrduke]

So he did. I clicked on the link and it had today’s date. But it makes slightly more sense.

[brevity]

A couple of Triangle-centric observations:

1. The next AP poll is important, because Duke is finally eligible for every voter's ballot (https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/sports/columnists/graham-couch/2019/01/07/ap-top-25-basketball-poll-graham-couchs-ballot-and-explanation/2500067002/). From January 7:


Beyond Duke, six teams who are on my top 25 ballot this week were initially ineligible when I began to not include teams who hadn’t yet played a true road game. The combined road record of those six teams since they began playing road games: 4-6. No. 1 Tennessee is 1-0, No. 6 Texas Tech (welcome back) 1-0, No. 7 Kansas 0-2, No. 8 Auburn 0-1, No. 11 Kentucky 1-1 and No. 20 Villanova 1-2. Winning on the road is so much harder than on neutral courts, and road games are telling of a team’s makeup and toughness and abilities beyond freakish athleticism. Duke might be the best team in the country. But 4-6 tells me we don’t really know what Duke is yet until the Blue Devils start playing on the road. Because they haven’t, at this point, its naive and unfair to celebrate them.

I would lend a small amount of support to Graham Couch's position if he were using it to keep Duke out of the top spot -- I have no road game bias, and would strongly consider putting Virginia or Michigan there myself -- but to leave them out of the Top 25 altogether is to ignore everything else and say that whatever the team has accomplished at home or in neutral sites simply doesn't count for anything. The poll breakdown (https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/) is well-publicized these days; he would gain enough notoriety as an outlier by ranking them, say, #6. (Now that he's ranking Duke again, maybe he will.)

2. You may not want to hear this, but even after their 21-point home loss, there's a good chance that UNC will not drop too far in the rankings, if at all.

Sticking with the AP poll (https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll), here is how UNC and others fared:

#11 Auburn (1-1) lost at Ole Miss, won vs. Georgia
#12 UNC (1-1) won at #15 NC State, lost vs. Louisville
#13 FSU (1-1) won vs. Miami, lost vs. #1 Duke
#14 Mississippi State (0-2) lost at South Carolina, lost vs. Ole Miss
#15 NC State (1-1) lost vs. #12 UNC, won vs. Pittsburgh
#16 Ohio State (0-2) lost at Rutgers, lost at Iowa
#17 Houston (0-1) lost at Temple, plays Wichita State tonight
#18 Kentucky (1-0) won vs. Texas A&M, plays Vanderbilt tonight
#19 Buffalo (2-0) won vs. Toledo, won vs. Miami (OH)
#20 Iowa State (0-2) lost at Baylor, lost vs. Kansas State
#21 Marquette (2-0) won at Creighton, won vs. Seton Hall

The remaining ranked teams (Indiana, Oklahoma, St. John's, and TCU) each lost 1 or 2 games this week.

For UNC to move down, someone has to move up, and the best candidates are #18 Kentucky (pending the Vanderbilt game), #19 Buffalo, and #21 Marquette. None of those teams will have a recent victory as good-looking to voters as UNC's win in Raleigh. There is a stealth candidate -- unranked Ole Miss, who beat #11 Auburn and #14 Mississippi State, and sits atop the SEC at 3-0 and a 13-2 overall record -- but I see them definitely cracking the Top 20, maybe cracking the Top 15, and not displacing UNC.

A final thought: can UNC actually move up in the rankings? I hope not. #11 Auburn's loss doesn't look so bad now. #10 Nevada is playing at Fresno State tonight. The Top 9 teams have not lost so far this week, but I don't see UNC passing #2 Michigan, #5 Gonzaga, or #6 Michigan State even if they lose tonight or Sunday.

[AGDukesky]

I agree with much of that analysis but also think you could make a case to move FSU up by taking the #1 to the brink. UK should move ahead of UNC by virtue of winning head-to-head assuming no loss tonight. I see UNC likely moving down at least a couple spots after getting trounced at home by an unranked team who just lost to Pittsburgh.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

A couple of Triangle-centric observations:

1. The next AP poll is important, because Duke is finally eligible for every voter's ballot (https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/sports/columnists/graham-couch/2019/01/07/ap-top-25-basketball-poll-graham-couchs-ballot-and-explanation/2500067002/). From January 7:

.

Yeah perhaps that Couch guy will now say Duke has played a "true road game." I think today in Tallahassee meets that criteria......

[arnie]

Yeah perhaps that Couch guy will now say Duke has played a "true road game." I think today in Tallahassee meets that criteria...

Or he leaves us out for spite and to stay in the news. Remember, K has never been AP national coach of the year. I love these conspiracies😀.

[elvis14]

Yeah perhaps that Couch guy will now say Duke has played a "true road game." I think today in Tallahassee meets that criteria...

Once Couch shared his inappropriate criteria, he should have been removed as a voter.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Once Couch shared his inappropriate criteria, he should have been removed as a voter.

Or...

We could all be thankful that college basketball is a universe where votes don't determine anything, so we can roll our eyes at this joker and move on.

[Troublemaker]

Yeah perhaps that Couch guy will now say Duke has played a "true road game." I think today in Tallahassee meets that criteria...

Nope. @Wake didn't count because Wake is horrible. @FSU doesn't count because the Duke team that won that game isn't the Duke team that we'll have going forward (we hope).

@Pitt on Jan 22 is when Duke will play our first true, true, *true* road game.

[UrinalCake]

The CHeats got blown out at home to an unranked opponent - guess how many spots they dropped in the AP poll? ONE. They’re going to finish the regular season with double digit losses but the media will probably still be talking them up as a one seed like they did last season.

[AGDukesky]

I agree with much of that analysis but also think you could make a case to move FSU up by taking the #1 to the brink. UK should move ahead of UNC by virtue of winning head-to-head assuming no loss tonight. I see UNC likely moving down at least a couple spots after getting trounced at home by an unranked team who just lost to Pittsburgh.

Well I was close - both UK and FSU passed UNC but Auburn dropped more and no one else just below the Tar Heels apparently had a better week...

[wilson]

The CHeats got blown out at home to an unranked opponent - guess how many spots they dropped in the AP poll? ONE. They’re going to finish the regular season with double digit losses but the media will probably still be talking them up as a one seed like they did last season.


Well I was close - both UK and FSU passed UNC but Auburn dropped more and no one else just below the Tar Heels apparently had a better week...Apropos of the above, unc's ranking didn't happen in a vacuum. 12 of the 15 teams ranked 11-25 last week lost at least once, five of them twice. I generally agree that the heels tend to get more of the benefit of the polling doubt than other teams, but in this instance, they got lucky during a bad week for the top 25 overall.

[SCMatt33]

UVA held the top spot in the coaches poll, so Saturday’s game will officially see #1 vs #1. Anyone know if that’s ever happened before?

[Kedsy]

UVA held the top spot in the coaches poll, so Saturday’s game will officially see #1 vs #1. Anyone know if that’s ever happened before?

Please refer to posts #66 through #72 of this very thread.

[SCMatt33]

Please refer to posts #66 through #72 of this very thread.

Thanks, looked back to the top of the current page, and stopped there since it was well before any current poll came out

[Ian]

FSU is the 2nd time this year a team has lost to Duke and moved up in the polls. Texas Tech went from 12 to 11 after losing to Duke on the 20th.

Auburn also lost to Duke and didn't lost ground in the polls. They stayed #8.

[UrinalCake]

I guess this means that after UNC loses to us, they should get a nice little boost in the rankings. Maybe crack the top 10 if it’s a huge blowout.

[rasputin]

Apropos of the above, unc's ranking didn't happen in a vacuum. 12 of the 15 teams ranked 11-25 last week lost at least once, five of them twice. I generally agree that the heels tend to get more of the benefit of the polling doubt than other teams, but in this instance, they got lucky during a bad week for the top 25 overall.

The Cheaters also beat a ranked team on the road last week, which would also temper the effect of a 20-point loss at home.

[Furniture]

With Duke ranked AP No. 1 this week, Mike Krzyzewski has surpassed John Wooden for most weeks ranked No. 1 in poll history.
122| Mike Krzyzewski
121| John Wooden
61| Adolph Rupp

[devildeac]

The Cheaters also beat a ranked team on the road last week, which would also temper the effect of a 20-point loss at home.

Whoa, let's not get carried away. Are we talking about NCSU here with their stunning SOS somewhere near the bottom of D1 MBB teams?

:p:rolleyes:

[brevity]

What will the Top 10 look like on Monday? Does Tennessee become a unanimous #1? Do Kansas, Texas Tech, and/or Virginia Tech slip out, and if so, who replaces them?

From the AP poll (https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll):

1. Duke (1-1) lost vs. Syracuse, won vs. #4 Virginia
2. Michigan (1-1) won vs. Northwestern, lost at Wisconsin
3. Tennessee (2-0) won vs, Arkansas, won vs. Alabama
4. Virginia (1-1) won vs. #9 Virginia Tech, lost at #1 Duke
5. Gonzaga (1-0) won vs. LMU, plays at Portland tonight
6. Michigan State (2-0) won at Penn State, won at Nebraska
7. Kansas (1-1) won vs. Texas, lost at West Virginia
8. Texas Tech (0-2) lost vs. Iowa State, lost at Baylor
9. Virginia Tech (1-1) lost at #4 Virginia, won vs. Wake Forest
10. Nevada (1-0) won at Boise State, plays vs. Air Force tonight

Next 10 teams with no loss this week: #11 Kentucky, #12 UNC, #15 Marquette, #16 Buffalo, #19 Maryland.

[CameronBornAndBred]

What will the Top 10 look like on Monday? Does Tennessee become a unanimous #1? Do Kansas, Texas Tech, and/or Virginia Tech slip out, and if so, who replaces them?

From the AP poll (https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll):

1. Duke (1-1) lost vs. Syracuse, won vs. #4 Virginia
2. Michigan (1-1) won vs. Northwestern, lost at Wisconsin
3. Tennessee (2-0) won vs, Arkansas, won vs. Alabama
4. Virginia (1-1) won vs. #9 Virginia Tech, lost at #1 Duke
5. Gonzaga (1-0) won vs. LMU, plays at Portland tonight
6. Michigan State (2-0) won at Penn State, won at Nebraska
7. Kansas (1-1) won vs. Texas, lost at West Virginia
8. Texas Tech (0-2) lost vs. Iowa State, lost at Baylor
9. Virginia Tech (1-1) lost at #4 Virginia, won vs. Wake Forest
10. Nevada (1-0) won at Boise State, plays vs. Air Force tonight

Next 10 teams with no loss this week: #11 Kentucky, #12 UNC, #15 Marquette, #16 Buffalo, #19 Maryland.
Not that I'm biased or anything, but we lost to 'Cuse close in a game we were down two of our best players, and beat the "other" #1 team without the top point guard in the country. I won't be shocked if we stay #1, but I'm guessing it will be Tenn, Duke, 'Zags (if they win tonight), UVA, MSU, with Duke getting plenty of #1 votes.

[arnie]

Not that I'm biased or anything, but we lost to 'Cuse close in a game we were down two of our best players, and beat the "other" #1 team without the top point guard in the country. I won't be shocked if we stay #1, but I'm guessing it will be Tenn, Duke, 'Zags (if they win tonight), UVA, MSU, with Duke getting plenty of #1 votes.

All the espn talking heads say Tenn is No. 1.

[Bluedog]

Not that I'm biased or anything, but we lost to 'Cuse close in a game we were down two of our best players, and beat the "other" #1 team without the top point guard in the country. I won't be shocked if we stay #1, but I'm guessing it will be Tenn, Duke, 'Zags (if they win tonight), UVA, MSU, with Duke getting plenty of #1 votes.

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear TN will be 1. I think we'll be 3 or 4. I'd be a bit surprised with us at 2, but not shocked. I guess the question is who deserves to be #2 over us as the polls are usually about "what have you done for me recently" so I guess the Zags and MSU are possibilities....Heck, UVa could even move up? As weird as that sounds. But voters wouldn't typically rank a team higher than another that they just lost to, but one could argue that a demolition of Va Tech and a close loss at Duke is better than a home loss to Cuse and a narrow home victory to UVa. As said above, the beauty of this all is that it doesn't really matter. :)

[Wahoo2000]

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear TN will be 1. I think we'll be 3 or 4. I'd be a bit surprised with us at 2, but not shocked. I guess the question is who deserves to be #2 over us as the polls are usually about "what have you done for me recently" so I guess the Zags and MSU are possibilities...Heck, UVa could even move up? As weird as that sounds. But voters wouldn't typically rank a team higher than another that they just lost to, but one could argue that a demolition of Va Tech and a close loss at Duke is better than a home loss to Cuse and a narrow home victory to UVa. As said above, the beauty of this all is that it doesn't really matter. :)

I don't think Zags or MSU should crack the top 4, but I suppose they could. I feel like there's a slight separation between Michigan/UVA/Duke/Tenn over Zags and MSU. Then a decent chasm down to the next tier.

I predict Tenn will be #1. 2-6 could be almost any order. If UVA/MICH/Duke fall below 6, I'll be beyond flabbergasted.

[richardjackson199]

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear TN will be 1. I think we'll be 3 or 4. I'd be a bit surprised with us at 2, but not shocked. I guess the question is who deserves to be #2 over us as the polls are usually about "what have you done for me recently" so I guess the Zags and MSU are possibilities...Heck, UVa could even move up? As weird as that sounds. But voters wouldn't typically rank a team higher than another that they just lost to, but one could argue that a demolition of Va Tech and a close loss at Duke is better than a home loss to Cuse and a narrow home victory to UVa. As said above, the beauty of this all is that it doesn't really matter. :)

I think Duke is #2, for now. Home loss to Syracuse sounds bad, but everybody knows that loss of Tre with Cam out gives that loss a huge asterisk. Beating UVA without Tre is huge. The important thing is we're right where we want to be now to compete for a #1 seed after overcoming some serious adversity. Great win.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I think Duke is #2, for now. Home loss to Syracuse sounds bad, but everybody knows that loss of Tre with Cam out gives that loss a huge asterisk. Beating UVA without Tre is huge. The important thing is we're right where we want to be now to compete for a #1 seed after overcoming some serious adversity. Great win.

THIS ^^^ - exactly my take too

[22JumpShots]

I think Duke stays #1. We lost in OT to an ACC team without our Point Guard and Shooting Guard (two starters)...and then beat undefeated #4 UVA (without our point guard).

Tenn barely squeaked by unranked Bama. Their only quality wins are 3 point win vs. Zags, @ FLA? and L-ville....and lost to KU. <-- Am I wrong?

You all already know who Duke has beat ... (Smashed UK (2), Auburn (8), IU, TTU (12), @ FL St (13), UVA (4) ... Clemson (34) and Princeton (by 50) who beat ASU (who beat Kansas) ...

If the ranking is anything resembling truth then Duke stays #1.

Edit - All of this in conjunction with #2 losing, #4 losing, #7 losing, #8 losing etc

[CameronBornAndBred]

Tenn barely squeaked by unranked Bama. ... <-- Am I wrong?

Nope. And like I said above, I agree through my blue tinted glasses that Duke could be 1 still. But...barely squeaking = winning, and during a week when the folks in front of them (including us) lost.

If Duke isn't at least 2 tomorrow, though, then the voters are all suffering from a collective brain cramp.

[grad_devil]

Newest AP Poll (02/11) has Tennessee (40 first place votes) at #1, with Duke (24 first place votes) at #2. Virginia drops to #4, with Gonzaga leapfrogging them to #3.

That's probably to be expected. What wasn't expected was the shoddy writing by ESPN (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25972895/tennessee-remains-no-1-ap-poll-ahead-duke):


Duke won both of its games last week, rolling over Boston College by 25 before winning a rematch with Virginia 81-71 on Saturday. The Blue Devils needed overtime to beat the Cavaliers the first meeting and shot them out of the gym in the second, making 13 of 21 from the 3-point arc.

Wait - am I missing something? Didn't we win in regulation?

Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised by this, but I am. Oh well.

[UrinalCake]

Wait - am I missing something? Didn't we win in regulation?

The author is apparently confusing the UVA game with the Syracuse game, which happened earlier that same week.

Really need TN to lose so that we can reclaim #1. I know it doesn't matter, and we're already #1 on the bracket reveal which is more significant, but I still just want us to be ranked #1. And apparently voters will refuse to drop TN as long as they keep winning, even if we were to beat the Warriors and the 96 Bulls. Big test for them against UK this weekend.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The author is apparently confusing the UVA game with the Syracuse game, which happened earlier that same week.

Really need TN to lose so that we can reclaim #1. I know it doesn't matter, and we're already #1 on the bracket reveal which is more significant, but I still just want us to be ranked #1. And apparently voters will refuse to drop TN as long as they keep winning, even if we were to beat the Warriors and the 96 Bulls. Big test for them against UK this weekend.

Will be interesting to see how Tennessee does in the role of "the hunter" in a game against UK. That is a very rare occurrence. UK will relish the underdog role.

[weezie]

...Really need TN to lose so that we can reclaim #1. I know it doesn't matter, and we're already #1 on the bracket reveal which is more significant, but I still just want us to be ranked #1...

I guess but I sure enjoyed the laugh when I saw the coaches poll. Only two votes for #1?! That's hilarious!

ky rolls tn this weekend. Right out of the door and down the street to the dumpster.

[uh_no]

I guess but I sure enjoyed the laugh when I saw the coaches poll. Only two votes for #1?! That's hilarious!

ky rolls tn this weekend. Right out of the door and down the street to the dumpster.

coaches pay no attention.... though i suppose little different than the media...

[English]

Will be interesting to see how Tennessee does in the role of "the hunter" in a game against UK. That is a very rare occurrence. UK will relish the underdog role.

Hmmmm, if UK is the underdog, wouldn't that put Tenn in the role of "the hunted?" Not that it matters.

That game is going to be a tough one for me...while I may just hold my nose and hope UK bumps off the top team, I have a real bugaboo pulling for Cal and his squad. I have no ill will toward Rick Barnes or ol' Rocky Top. Of course, this season it would help our SOS for UK to continue rolling.

[NSDukeFan]

The author is apparently confusing the UVA game with the Syracuse game, which happened earlier that same week.

Really need TN to lose so that we can reclaim #1. I know it doesn't matter, and we're already #1 on the bracket reveal which is more significant, but I still just want us to be ranked #1. And apparently voters will refuse to drop TN as long as they keep winning, even if we were to beat the Warriors and the 96 Bulls. Big test for them against UK this weekend.

UK, isn’t that one of the teams Duke pounded earlier in the year?


I really enjoyed typing that.

[BandAlum83]

UK, isn’t that one of the teams Duke pounded earlier in the year?


I really enjoyed typing that.

Yes, and I really have no interest in a redemption story this year. If we have to face them again, no mercy, no redemption!

[AGDukesky]

UK, isn’t that one of the teams Duke pounded earlier in the year [and beat UNC]?


I really enjoyed typing that.

FIFY

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Hmmmm, if UK is the underdog, wouldn't that put Tenn in the role of "the hunted?".

No, the underdog is the HUNTER.....the favorite is THE HUNTED.

[Kedsy]

Will be interesting to see how Tennessee does in the role of "the hunter" in a game against UK. That is a very rare occurrence. UK will relish the underdog role.


Hmmmm, if UK is the underdog, wouldn't that put Tenn in the role of "the hunted?" Not that it matters.


No, the underdog is the HUNTER...the favorite is THE HUNTED.

Yes, the underdog is the hunter and the favorite is the hunted. And since in your original post you labeled UK as being in "the underdog role" (thus making UT the favorite) and also called UT "the hunter" in the same post, you clearly misspoke.

English was just pointing that out. No need to go all caps on him (or her).

[Wander]

I am 90+% certain that Kentucky will be the (slight) favorite in the game against Tennessee this weekend.

[uh_no]

I am 90+% certain that Kentucky will be the (slight) favorite in the game against Tennessee this weekend.

they ought be given the teams seem pretty closely matched and it's at rupp

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I am 90+% certain that Kentucky will be the (slight) favorite in the game against Tennessee this weekend.

It would not surprise me if that's the case - on the gambling line. But UT is number one, and there will be more pressure on them to defend that, and UK will be able to play the underdog card regardless of the official Vegas line. I'm very interested to see how it all plays out.

[brevity]

Reviving this thread after a couple of weeks.

The polls tomorrow will tell us for sure, but this has been the dream week for Carolina. After staying at #8 in the last AP poll after the UVA loss 2 weeks ago (and dropping only to Coaches #9, behind Houston), Carolina beat the #1 and #16 teams and saw Tennessee, Nevada, and Michigan lose.

Carolina will almost certainly stay behind Gonzaga, Virginia, and Kentucky, but can move up as high as #4, depending on where Duke and Houston are ranked. I suspect beating the #1 team on the road will put Carolina ahead of Houston in both polls. As for Duke, I would say that Zion's injury is the rare special circumstance -- the biggest story in all of sports -- that even a group of automatons like poll voters would notice. It may be enough to keep Duke ranked ahead of Carolina.

My guess:

1. Gonzaga
2. Virginia
3. Kentucky
4. Duke
5. Carolina
6. Houston
7. Tennessee
8. Michigan State
9. Michigan
10. Nevada (or maybe Marquette)

The main thing that happened this week was that Carolina is now in range of a 1 seed, and probably at the expense of either Duke or Virginia.

[AGDukesky]

What would be the logic for moving UK above Duke? We have a better record, killed them head-to-head, and they lost at home to LSU the previous week(thus they are not on some insane winning streak). Gonzaga makes sense and UVA maybe does if you don’t care that Duke has two losses missing key players despite sweeping them. I don’t see a case for anyone else...

[Rich]

What would be the logic for moving UK above Duke? We have a better record, killed them head-to-head, and they lost at home to LSU the previous week(thus they are not on some insane winning streak). Gonzaga makes sense and UVA maybe does if you don’t care that Duke has two losses missing key players despite sweeping them. I don’t see a case for anyone else...

I think it can go either way with respect to Kentucky, but the polls are usually based on a recency bias. The fact that Duke beat them is assuredly too far ago to make any difference. The fact that KY lost to LSU the previous week is somewhat relevant, but the polls usually seem to based on the most recent poll and what's happened since. In this case, KY won its games and Duke lost one of its games.

[AGDukesky]

I think it can go either way with respect to Kentucky, but the polls are usually based on a recency bias. The fact that Duke beat them is assuredly too far ago to make any difference. The fact that KY lost to LSU the previous week is somewhat relevant, but the polls usually seem to based on the most recent poll and what's happened since. In this case, KY won its games and Duke lost one of its games.

I believe and certainly hope voters are not that myopic. UK was way too far behind Duke to jump us simply by not losing in a week when we lost to a top 10 team without our best player. Otherwise, these polls are completely non-sensical, which I will admit is possible...

[mph]

I’ll be surprised if we drop behind UK, especially with Zion’s injury featuring so prominently in our loss. We’ve still lost exactly 1 game at full-strength and have some good wins (@FSU, @Syracuse) while missing key players. I think we drop to 3 but I’ll be less surprised if we stay ahead of UVA than I will if we drop below UK. So, Zags, Hoos, Duke, UK. Outside shot of Zags, Duke, Hoos...

[Duke79UNLV77]

I’d expect us at #2. We have a better record in a better conference than Kentucky and clobbered them. We’ve played a mich better non-conference schedule than Virginia and swept them, including beating them without our point guard. Plus, I think most people still think we have the best team and realize that 2 of our 3losses were with major injury issues.

[uh_no]

you all are ascribing way too much rationality to polls and poll voters. I wouldn't be surprised if duke dropped below, UK, I wouldn't be surprised if duke dropped below UNC.

[JasonEvans]

It is worth noting that in ESPN's new power rankings released today Duke remains the #1 team. ESPN points out that even with 2 losses that can be ascribed to injuries, we clearly have the best resume in the land and the moment Zion comes back everyone knows we are the best team in the country. I am pleased ESPN is smart enough to see through the BS of "recency bias" and recognize the impact losing a player can have upon a team in the game where the loss happens.

But polls don't mean much of anything. I remain convinced that -- provided Zion is playing again -- Duke is the clear #1 overall seed. It would take us losing a game in which Zion plays for that not to be the case.

[BigZ]

Duke should be 2nd. Duke currently is 1st. Duke lost to 2nd ranked team Duke beat 3rd ranked team twice. Duke beat 4th ranked team by 28.

[Wander]

I think the logical flaw in the last few posts is not acknowledging that we haven't played a game with Zion healthy and back yet. Yes, if he is back and 100% healthy, we should be #1. But that hasn't happened yet, and without Zion we are a very good team, but not #1. The polls are going to reflect that, and should revisit the issue whenever he comes back.

[uh_no]

I think the logical flaw in the last few posts is not acknowledging that we haven't played a game with Zion healthy and back yet. Yes, if he is back and 100% healthy, we should be #1. But that hasn't happened yet, and without Zion we are a very good team, but not #1. The polls are going to reflect that, and should revisit the issue whenever he comes back.

I think the logical flaw in the last few posts is attempting to apply logic to the polls :)

[English]

I think the logical flaw in the last few posts is attempting to apply logic to the polls :)

This x1000. If there is ANY logic to the AP polls, and that's questionable, it's that the voters generally take last week's poll, look purely at who has lost since that time, and move teams around accordingly. As a few posters have already pointed out, this is both: 1) recency bias; 2) short-sighted. But, here we are.

It's probably the reason so many posters feel compelled to wander over to the "tracking the poll" threads on DBR whenever they pop up and talk about how worthless an exercise following the polls can be. Of course, this is a message board to talk about basketball things, and even arbitrary rankings of teams can be entertaining. At least in my view.

[AGDukesky]

AP did pretty much what I expected. Duke drops to 3rd but only trails UVA by 11 points and still has 3 first place votes - and still leads UK by 84 points.

[DarkstarWahoo]

We should both be ahead of the Zags.

[uh_no]

We should both be ahead of the Zags.

i don't think either team has much to complain about given duke lost to gonzaga head to head, and uva lost twice to duke.

[devildeac]

AP did pretty much what I expected. Duke drops to 3rd but only trails UVA by 11 points and still has 3 first place votes - and still leads UK by 84 points.

84 points:eek:! Oh, wait, you said "leads" not "beat."

:o

[Rich]

This concerns me:


Also in the mix of what seems to be an eight-team battle for a No. 1 seed are North Carolina and Michigan. The Tar Heels, the top No. 2 seed currently, have a great chance to move ahead if other teams stumble because they're playing in a conference with two No. 1s — Duke and Virginia. Their first win over the Blue Devils was without Zion Williamson, albeit on the road at Cameron Indoor. But beat a healthy Duke squad (Williamson's return is pending) in the ACC season finale next week would pu UNC is in [stet] business as a legit No. 1-seed-caliber squad.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2019/02/25/march-madness-ncaa-tournament-bracketology-bubble-watch-selection-sunday/2977328002/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycomsports-topstories

[Duke79UNLV77]

We should both be ahead of the Zags.

If you look at the full seasons of the 3 as a whole, considering schedules and results, I’d probably agree with Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga. It’s hard not to weigh the head-to-head results at the top, though, which would lead to Gonzaga, Duke, Virginia.

[Eternal Outlaw]

i don't think either team has much to complain about given duke lost to gonzaga head to head, and uva lost twice to duke.

They haven't played a projected tournament team since Dec 15th, in that span Duke has played 10 games vs teams currently in ESPN's bracketology. Wouldn't complain about it but more just point out how rankings are meaningless when a team can play chump after chump for 2 months and be ranked the best team.

Transitive of Gonzaga beat Duke who Beat Virginia is the only way this would make sense but transitive doesn't make sense. In contrast, Virginia two loses were against higher ranked team (Duke vs UNC, Tennessee) and they've played tougher teams on a regular basis. Gonzaga has what, 4 projected tourney teams on their schedule all year (Duke, Washington, UNC, Tenn)? Duke is about to play their sixth straight. Virginia played 4 of their last 5. #1 team shouldn't have such a pitiful schedule if an equal team with a tough schedule is available. Taking Duke out of it being a fan, Virginia certainly qualifies.

[uh_no]

They haven't played a projected tournament team since Dec 15th, in that span Duke has played 10 games vs teams currently in ESPN's bracketology. Wouldn't complain about it but more just point out how rankings are meaningless when a team can play chump after chump for 2 months and be ranked the best team.


THe rankings would be meaningless even if this were not the case :)

[budwom]

Duke and Cavs tied for second in coaches poll

[Natty_B]

Duke has played every other team in the top 5 (one of them twice). Seems like something that doesn't happen often.

[W&LHoo]

At some point the polls just become ridiculous. While I think our two games were outliers to some extent, that's the data we have, and you guys beat us at home and away.

Meanwhile, Gonzaga has played three ranked teams the entire season, and they're 1-2 in those games. And all due respect to the Loyala Marymounts and Pepperdines of the world, but they've played essentially no one in months. Yes a win over you guys on a neutral court is impressive but it was more than three months ago.

[uh_no]

At some point the polls just become ridiculous. While I think our two games were outliers to some extent, that's the data we have, and you guys beat us at home and away.


Way to be gracious in defeat..... /s

[W&LHoo]

Way to be gracious in defeat... /s

There's literally a caveat in the three words following your bolded portion. I then went on to say that's the data we have. The implication there was that I think y’all should be ranked ahead of us based on the information in front of voters.

I think I've been adequately gracious.

[uh_no]

There's literally a caveat in the three words following your bolded portion. I then went on to say that's the data we have. The implication there was that I think y’all should be ranked ahead of us based on the information in front of voters.

I think I've been adequately gracious.

you implied you didn't think the wins were representative of the two teams' abilities. That's not being gracious in the least. Now, if you were down, say, your point guard, and lost...I might give you that....

[CDu]

you implied you didn't think the wins were representative of the two teams' abilities. That's not being gracious in the least. Now, if you were down, say, your point guard, and lost...I might give you that...

I mean, the second game was absolutely an outlier. We shot out of our minds in that game, and they were missing a starter for much of it. If that had happened to us, we'd be calling it an outlier, would we not? Hell, we basically have the example in hand (Syracuse at home).

I have no problem with what the Hoo said. It's totally reasonable. I may disagree (especially so with regard to the win in Cameron), but he or she wasn't being a jerk with that comment.

I'm sure you'd agree that Gonzaga is better than us, right? I mean, they beat us, and nothing about that game was an outlier for us, was it?

[uh_no]

I'm sure you'd agree that Gonzaga is better than us, right? I mean, they beat us, and nothing about that game was an outlier for us, was it?

I think at the time of the game, gonzaga probably was better than us. If we played that game 100 times, I would not have been surprised if they won more than us.

(we also didn't need OT to beat NCSU by 1...)

[CDu]

I think at the time of the game, gonzaga probably was better than us. If we played that game 100 times, I would not have been surprised if they won more than us.

(we also didn't need OT to beat NCSU by 1...)

Like I said, one can certainly disagree with his or her stance. But you don't need to be indignant about it. Especially given that the game at Charlottesville was absolutely an outlier.

I think it's absolutely reasonable to wonder if UVa is the better team. If we get the chance to play them again in the ACC tournament or NCAAs, I'd be fairly concerned that they will win. Because I think the two teams are pretty darn close. Both KenPom and Torvik think UVa has been better this year, and that was true even before the outlier UNC game. Duke very briefly surpassed the Hoos with that second win, but subsequently dropped back behind. So, again, it's not unreasonable to think that UVa was better, and that the performances to date don't quite reflect the true quality of each team. It's not being ungracious to think it.

[Wander]

They haven't played a projected tournament team since Dec 15th, in that span Duke has played 10 games vs teams currently in ESPN's bracketology. Wouldn't complain about it but more just point out how rankings are meaningless when a team can play chump after chump for 2 months and be ranked the best team.

Sure, but Gonzaga is doing exactly what you'd expect a top-5 team to be doing against their bad opponents. They're beating teams by ridiculous margins; their AVERAGE margin of victory in conference play is more than 29 points. IMO, that's something only Duke, UVA, and Kentucky would be doing if those teams played in that conference.

Personally, I don't think using head-to-head results really makes sense here (because the top teams have all played each other in a complicated web... there's no way to order them consistent with head-to-head results), but I guess it's reasonable to disagree on that point and put Gonzaga on top.

[uh_no]

Like I said, one can certainly disagree with his or her stance. But you don't need to be indignant about it. Especially given that the game at Charlottesville was absolutely an outlier.

I think it's absolutely reasonable to wonder if UVa is the better team. If we get the chance to play them again in the ACC tournament or NCAAs, I'd be fairly concerned that they will win. Because I think the two teams are pretty darn close. Both KenPom and Torvik think UVa has been better this year, and that was true even before the outlier UNC game. Duke very briefly surpassed the Hoos with that second win, but subsequently dropped back behind. So, again, it's not unreasonable to think that UVa was better, and that the performances to date don't quite reflect the true quality of each team. It's not being ungracious to think it.

You're wrong.

Duke was more than a point more highly rated than UVA heading into the UNC game, and that DOES include the earlier stretch without tre/cam.

Data through games of Tuesday, February 19
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 23-2 +35.92
2 Virginia ACC 23-2 +34.79


Further, duke NEVER trailed UVA after the second win until the UNC game. Here is the data:

Data through games of Saturday, February 9
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 21-2 +36.37 124.3 2 88.0 5 72.7 20 +.000 177 +9.63 17 107.9 27 98.2 11 +5.90 35
2 Gonzaga WCC 23-2 +34.97

Data through games of Sunday, February 10
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 21-2 +36.37 124.3 2 88.0 5 72.7 18 +.000 179 +9.61 17 107.8 27 98.2 11 +5.85 35
2 Virginia ACC 20-2 +34.99

Data through games of Monday, February 11
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 21-2 +36.44 124.4 2 88.0 5 72.6 18 +.000 178 +9.66 17 107.9 27 98.3 12 +5.87 35
2 Virginia ACC 21-2 +35.61

Data through games of Tuesday, February 12
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 22-2 +36.04 123.3 3 87.3 4 72.9 17 +.015 146 +10.51 15 108.3 20 97.8 9 +5.95 34
2 Virginia ACC 21-2 +35.58

Data through games of Wednesday, February 13
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 22-2 +36.04 123.3 3 87.3 4 72.9 16 +.015 142 +10.47 15 108.4 20 97.9 10 +5.96 34
2 Virginia ACC 21-2 +35.59

Data through games of Thursday, February 14
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 22-2 +36.03 123.3 3 87.3 4 72.8 16 +.015 144 +10.51 15 108.4 20 97.9 10 +5.98 34
2 Virginia ACC 21-2 +35.60

Data through games of Friday, February 15
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 22-2 +36.00 123.4 3 87.4 4 72.8 16 +.015 143 +10.46 15 108.5 20 98.1 10 +5.87 35
2 Virginia ACC 21-2 +35.60

Data through games of Saturday, February 16
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 23-2 +35.82 123.9 3 88.0 4 72.9 18 +.016 142 +10.52 14 108.6 22 98.1 11 +5.78 39
2 Virginia ACC 22-2 +34.47

Data through games of Sunday, February 17
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 23-2 +35.86 124.0 3 88.2 4 73.2 18 +.016 142 +10.58 14 108.7 22 98.1 11 +5.85 39
2 Virginia ACC 22-2 +34.46

Data through games of Monday, February 18
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rk Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD AdjEM
1 Duke ACC 23-2 +35.89 124.1 3 88.2 4 73.1 18 +.016 141 +10.61 14 108.7 22 98.1 11 +5.87 38
2 Virginia ACC 23-2 +34.77


Duke was ahead of UVA heading into the first syracuse game. That performance knocked them back. So what I'm seeing in the data is the only reason UVA was as close as they were to duke, and the only reason they are ahead now is because of two games in which duke lost huge pieces at game time.

[CDu]

You're wrong...

Okay, great. Thanks for correcting me on the data.

Doesn't really change my point, though. Whether or not Duke was ahead in the metrics doesn't really mean W&LHoo was being ungracious or deserving of getting snarked at.

[uh_no]

Okay, great. Thanks for correcting me on the data.

Doesn't really change my point, though. Whether or not Duke was ahead in the metrics doesn't really mean W&LHoo was being ungracious or deserving of getting snarked at.

fair enough....

I ask you this, though, if tony bennett had come out in the presser and said "this game was an outlier," it would come off as a bitter sore-loser, and we'd be calling for his head. I find it courteous to acknowledge that your opponent had a hand in your losing, and there were things you could have done better, especially when attempting to chalk an outcome up to random variance.

Now, maybe the bar is somewhat lower for posters on a message board (lol, maybe?), but I think conditioning the statement with something about duke executing and UVA could have closed out shooters better would have been in order.

[Wahoo2000]

Okay, great. Thanks for correcting me on the data.

Doesn't really change my point, though. Whether or not Duke was ahead in the metrics doesn't really mean W&LHoo was being ungracious or deserving of getting snarked at.

True or not, I doubt W&LHoo's skin is that thin. I think when we come on an opposing fan's board, you have to expect some people to have a natural dislike for your fanbase/school/program for whatever reason. Maybe uh_no just doesn't like the UVa program/fanbase/style. Maybe he doesn't like that we get (99% of the time) treated so exceedingly kindly here. Maybe he thinks we get too much respect from other Duke fans based on our program's minimal stature overall compared with Duke's. Maybe he just had a bad lunch and isn't feeling like himself. Whatever the reason, no hate to him or the rest of you guys, who are typically nicer to guests than any other board on the internet I've visited. I can only *wish* a reasonable Duke poster would get treated as nicely on thesabre..... but that's total fiction. You'd be flamed until you retaliate, then perma-banned. It's an extremely anti-all-things-Duke environment, I'd guess mostly because for all of our success in the regular season over the last 5 years, our overall record vs Duke is the only thing not to be *exceedingly* proud of.... but that's another matter.

[CDu]

fair enough...

I ask you this, though, if tony bennett had come out in the presser and said "this game was an outlier," it would come off as a bitter sore-loser, and we'd be calling for his head. I find it courteous to acknowledge that your opponent had a hand in your losing, and there were things you could have done better, especially when attempting to chalk an outcome up to random variance.

I wouldn't be calling for Bennett's head if he said that, because it was true (at least in the case of the second game). It wouldn't be the classiest thing a coach could do, but not worthy of vitriol either. That said, I'd commend him for NOT saying it. Sort of like (in inverse) folks commended Roy for going out of his way to point out that the Duke/UNC game was all about the loss of Zion. He didn't have to do that. But it was true.


Now, maybe the bar is somewhat lower for posters on a message board (lol, maybe?), but I think conditioning the statement with something about duke executing and UVA could have closed out shooters better would have been in order.

Well, the bar is certainly lower for a message board. Especially when we're dealing with an off-hand remark like that. The Hoos were especially gracious after the loss, even though I'm sure they were frustrated by our outlandish shooting performance. Just like we were frustrated by Syracuse's outlandish shooting performance against us. They don't need to have every post about that game for the history of time thereafter be caveated with "but in reality we could have done this and of course credit to Duke." At some point we can move on from the niceties of complimenting the winner and just talk shop for real.

[CDu]

True or not, I doubt W&LHoo's skin is that thin. I think when we come on an opposing fan's board, you have to expect some people to have a natural dislike for your fanbase/school/program for whatever reason. Maybe uh_no just doesn't like the UVa program/fanbase/style. Maybe he doesn't like that we get (99% of the time) treated so exceedingly kindly here. Maybe he thinks we get too much respect from other Duke fans based on our program's minimal stature overall compared with Duke's. Maybe he just had a bad lunch and isn't feeling like himself. Whatever the reason, no hate to him or the rest of you guys, who are typically nicer to guests than any other board on the internet I've visited. I can only *wish* a reasonable Duke poster would get treated as nicely on thesabre.... but that's total fiction. You'd be flamed until you retaliate, then perma-banned. It's an extremely anti-all-things-Duke environment, I'd guess mostly because for all of our success in the regular season over the last 5 years, our overall record vs Duke is the only thing not to be *exceedingly* proud of... but that's another matter.

I would just prefer that we keep our tone to guests such that you guys keep saying the nice things that you're saying about us.

[Nugget]

Sure, but Gonzaga is doing exactly what you'd expect a top-5 team to be doing against their bad opponents. They're beating teams by ridiculous margins; their AVERAGE margin of victory in conference play is more than 29 points. IMO, that's something only Duke, UVA, and Kentucky would be doing if those teams played in that conference.

Personally, I don't think using head-to-head results really makes sense here (because the top teams have all played each other in a complicated web... there's no way to order them consistent with head-to-head results), but I guess it's reasonable to disagree on that point and put Gonzaga on top.

Both Gonzaga and Virginia are extremely worthy of being Top 3 teams, along with us. Since we're all in line for 1 seeds, I'm not presently going to get too worked up over the order. And, as noted, Gonzaga can only play who the WCC has in it and it's killing those teams. I know there are season-to-season variations in the relative strengths of the teams but looking at the Top 10 teams in efficiency margin across the Ken Pom era would seem fairly telling on whether Gonzaga is "worthy" or not:

1. Kentucky 2015, +36.91
2. Virginia 2019, +35.50
3. Kansas 2008, +35.21
4. Gonzaga 2019, +34.68
5. Duke 2019, +34.38 (obviously, we'd be a little higher but for the in-game injuries vs. Syracuse and UNC)
6. Duke 2002, +34.19
7. Villanova 2018, +33.76
8. Wisconsin 2015, +33.72
9. Ohio St. 2011, +33.47
10. Duke 2010, +33.29, followed by spots 11-15 of Louisville 2013, North Carolina 2005, Illinois 2005, Kentucky 2012 and Duke 2004.

[English]

...Just like we were frustrated by Syracuse's outlandish shooting performance against us. They don't need to have every post about that game for the history of time thereafter be caveated with "but in reality we could have done this and of course credit to Duke." At some point we can move on from the niceties of complimenting the winner and just talk shop for real.

You keep using the Syracuse comp. Not for nothing, but you realize Duke was down two starters, including one in-game, against Cuse right? Not one.

Oh, yeah, and Cuse played great and we could've played better full-court defense before halftime.

[CDu]

You keep using the Syracuse comp. Not for nothing, but you realize Duke was down two starters, including one in-game, against Cuse right? Not one.

Oh, yeah, and Cuse played great and we could've played better full-court defense before halftime.

Yes, I am quite aware of the players who played and who did not play in that game.

And again, to be clear, I don’t think UVa is better than Duke at full strength (though I think it is close). But I think it is rude to be snarky to a poster for expressing the opinion otherwise.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Duke has played every other team in the top 5 (one of them twice). Seems like something that doesn't happen often.

I believe UNC has?

/didn't double check
//I still think it is rare
///Soon we will have played two of them twice
////So will they.

[Natty_B]

I believe UNC has?

/didn't double check
//I still think it is rare
///Soon we will have played two of them twice
////So will they.

Yeah I realized that after posting. Guess Duke will play one more against those teams.

[CDu]

Yeah I realized that after posting. Guess Duke will play one more against those teams.

True, though there's a chance that not all of them will be top-5 by the time we play UNC again.

[brevity]

New polls (AP here (https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll), Coaches here (http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/basketball-men/polls/coaches-poll/)), new talking points.

Who is the more shocking newcomer to the Top 25: Wofford, or Washington?

There was talk (in the NET thread, I think) about whether a mid-major team like Buffalo or Wofford should deserve an at-large bid over a middling power conference team. Obviously, each team stays ranked if it wins out, and would by definition get an automatic bid. But let's say one or both of them lost their conference tournament final. Has any team ranked that late in the season ever missed the tournament?

[Utley]

Tre and Zion’s injuries both came when we were ranked #1. I am fining with not being #1 again until the final poll.

[Wander]

Has any team ranked that late in the season ever missed the tournament?

Utah State and SMU have been ranked on selection sunday and missed the tournament.

[Rich]

USA Today's take on the current seeding situation, FWIW

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2019/03/04/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-march-madness-bubble-selection-sunday/3052984002/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycomsports-topstories


The top two No. 1 seeds, the ACC's Virginia and Duke, are relatively safe, though the Blue Devils' Zion Williamson injury situation could sway the selection committee.


North Carolina and Kentucky sit at the No. 2 line. The Tar Heels are about as close to a top seed as a No. 2 can get, having won 12 of their last 13. The Wildcats were at the No. 1 line last week but fell back as a result of Saturday's loss to Tennessee, which came without one of their best players in Reid Travis. Keep in mind, UK beat UNC on a head-to-head matchup on a neutral court. And ultimately, the Tar Heels' clash with Duke on March 9 could determine their top-seed fate.

[wavedukefan70s]

While I do not wish duke ti play in columbia and have Kentucky as the 2 .columbia is 1.5 hrs away .

[duke2x]

While I do not wish duke ti play in columbia and have Kentucky as the 2 .columbia is 1.5 hrs away .

USA Today has (incorrectly) sent UVA to Columbus for a couple weeks now. UVA, as the overall #1, would choose Columbia over Columbus and would be placed there based on distance if not. It's going to be UVA/Duke or UVA/UNC in Columbia--much like Charlotte last year.

UK has the same injury problem we have, which means they probably are a #1 unless TN outperforms them in the SEC Tournament. Even if UK is our #2, I still think they move Duke-UK to KC and TN-UNC in Louisville. There's precedent for that in 2016.

[DarkstarWahoo]

New polls (AP here (https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll), Coaches here (http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/basketball-men/polls/coaches-poll/)), new talking points.

Who is the more shocking newcomer to the Top 25: Wofford, or Washington?

There was talk (in the NET thread, I think) about whether a mid-major team like Buffalo or Wofford should deserve an at-large bid over a middling power conference team. Obviously, each team stays ranked if it wins out, and would by definition get an automatic bid. But let's say one or both of them lost their conference tournament final. Has any team ranked that late in the season ever missed the tournament?

According to Jerry Palm, Washington isn't even safely in after the Cal loss: https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/02/saturday-night-five-the-growing-one-bid-reality-uscs-transfer-trouble-oregons-salary-pool-and-the-favorites-gain-ground/

Their best OOC win was against Western Kentucky, which is second in CUSA. They're roughly equivalent to a MAC or MWC regular-season champion, and when those teams lose in their conference tournament, they tend not to make the NCAAs.

[Kfanarmy]

One of those rare occurrences when I think the Coaches Poll is less right than the AP. Think the coaches are voting on a bet that

1) Duke would have beat UNC if ZW was playing
2) Duke gets Zion back and
3) That the team can adjust quickly to his return.

None of which are unreasonable nor are they given. I don't necessarily think this team is #2 in the nation as they stand now.

[ElliottHoo]

According to Jerry Palm, Washington isn't even safely in after the Cal loss: https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/02/saturday-night-five-the-growing-one-bid-reality-uscs-transfer-trouble-oregons-salary-pool-and-the-favorites-gain-ground/

Their best OOC win was against Western Kentucky, which is second in CUSA. They're roughly equivalent to a MAC or MWC regular-season champion, and when those teams lose in their conference tournament, they tend not to make the NCAAs.

Yeah, its kind of astounding that the best win, of any kind, for the regular season champion of a "power conference" was by 5 at 17-12 Oregon. And not only is it their best win, its their best win by a pretty decent margin. Its just about locked in that they're going to end their season winless against NCAA tournament teams (and in only 3 chances). Its sort of weird they managed to do that while still having the #92 OCC SOS, and the #72 SOS overall. Seems like those should have been lower.

edit - I take it back. Posting the #72 overall SOS is worse than I'd realized. That's worse than any member of any non-Pac12 "power conference". DePaul is the closest at #67 and the Big East is no prize this year itself. NC State is the closest of the non-Big East/Pac12 conferences and they still managed #60 for SOS even with an OOC SOS so soft Charmin had to lower its eyes in defeat (of course, it was nowhere near as soft as Georgetown's OOC SOS last year, which might have been the softest OOC SOS I've ever seen. It made the angelic tufts of fuzz on a newborn's head feel like sandpaper in comparison).

[Wahoo2000]

One of those rare occurrences when I think the Coaches Poll is less right than the AP. Think the coaches are voting on a bet that

1) Duke would have beat UNC if ZW was playing
2) Duke gets Zion back and
3) That the team can adjust quickly to his return.

None of which are unreasonable nor are they given. I don't necessarily think this team is #2 in the nation as they stand now.

Huh? Duke is #4 in both polls, and trails UNC at #3 by a similar percentage over the overall vote. Polls are both remarkably similar at the top. Chance you're looking at an old coaches poll maybe?