2019 Mock Draft tracking

[JasonEvans]

The conversation elsewhere wondering about Nassir Little's NBA draft stock got me to thinking about keeping track of what the conventional wisdom is on various college players regarding their NBA prospects. DraftExpress used to have a feature that kept track of where various players had been in previous mock drafts. I really liked that feature but DraftExpress has gone away at this point.

So, every so often I am going to take a snap of the top 20 or so picks in the 2019 NBADraft.net mock and post it here so we can look back on it. I am not saying that NBADraft.net is a perfect gauge of draft stock, but it is not totally worthless either. I just think it could be interesting to see how guys move up and down.

Here is the first. As you can see from the top of the image, this was done prior to the first games on 11/6.
https://image.ibb.co/b9xntV/Capture.jpg

Of note-- Neither Tre nor Marquis are listed anywhere (not just in the top 24, they are not in the first or second rounds).
PJ Washington (not shown but at #30) is the only Kentucky player listed in the first or second rounds. I'm confident that will change in the next update as Keldon Johnson looked really good.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker was getting some draft buzz around this time last year... and then he cooled off a good bit for the Hokies. Will be interesting to see if he can maintain it this year.
Jaylen Hoard of Wake is a lottery pick.
Nassir Little checks in at #5. Over the summer I recall him being #2. Let's see how long he stays in the top 10 as Roy continues to show Carolina is a terrible destination for you if you want to become a pro prospect.

-Jason "Zion was down at #5 a few weeks ago... then NBA scouts attended a Duke practice" Evans

[kAzE]

I know it's against DBR rules to post content from premium sites, but just throwing it out there that ESPN's (formerly DraftExpress') Jonathan Givony's rankings are regularly posted on Reddit by ESPN subscribers. I won't post them here, but they are easily Google-able if you're curious.

Not sure if he's updated his rankings since the game, but he did post this article (for ESPN+ subscribers only): http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/25200984/nba-draft-stock-watch-scouting-zion-williamson-rj-barrett-2018-champions-classic

IMO, Givony is by FAR the most accurate mock drafter.

[brlftz]

Can't spork, so thanks for doing this, sounds like it could be a fascinating thread.

[JasonEvans]

First update... guess who the new #1 pick is.

Dukies are now #1, #2, and #3.

https://image.ibb.co/cE5UYV/Capture.png

The Nassir Little slide continues. I had seen him at #2 over the summer before he arrived on Carolina's campus. In the pre-season a couple weeks ago, he was #5. Now has has fallen out of the lottery to #15. Going to Carolina is a really, really, really bad move if you want to be a high NBA draft pick.

[UrinalCake]

One of my favorite signs in Cameron, from a few years ago. Looks like Little will be suffering the same fate as James Michael McAdoo (and Harrison Barnes, Jon Henson, Ed Davis, Isaiah Hicks, Reggie Bullock, etc.)

8805

[UrinalCake]

Seriously, it is inconceivable what Roy is doing to Little. Over the summer many experts said he was right up their with our big three in terms of talent. Some projected him as the overall #1 pick in 2019 due to his excellent defensive ability. Now Roy has him coming off the bench in favor of Garrison Brooks so that he can run his two-big lineup. Little is averaging something like 20 minutes a game. The way Roy is hiding him, you’d think the FBI was still looking for him.

But turning our attention to players who DIDN’T make the worst mistake of their lives by attending UNC, I see that Zion has overtaken RJ for the #1 spot. I imagine these two will swap places numerous times throughout the year, similar to Bagley/Ayton, Okafor/Towns, and Jabari/Wiggins. It’s just really fun that these guys are both on our team. And oh yeah, Cam too 8-).

[PackMan97]

Seriously, it is inconceivable what Roy is doing to Little.

Why? It's a pretty well established pattern. K coaching equals NBA draft, Roy coaching equals one of the last elite prospects in your class still playing college ball.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Seriously, it is inconceivable what Roy is doing to Little. Over the summer many experts said he was right up their with our big three in terms of talent. Some projected him as the overall #1 pick in 2019 due to his excellent defensive ability. Now Roy has him coming off the bench in favor of Garrison Brooks so that he can run his two-big lineup. Little is averaging something like 20 minutes a game. The way Roy is hiding him, you’d think the FBI was still looking for him.
He started last night and and played a few more minutes but had his least productive game of the three he’s played. So, obviously, back to the bench!

Meanwhile, Sideshow Bob... I mean Coby White... has started all three games.

[OldPhiKap]

K to a recruit: “I design an offense each year to highlight the skills of the players. And I want my shooters to shoot.”

Roy to a recruit: “you see, I helped Dean Smith create this secondary break system . . . .”

[MChambers]

The way Roy is hiding him, you’d think the FBI was still looking for him.

Wish I'd written this! Sporks for you!

[crf30]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, Tre Jones is projected as #30 on nbadraft.net now.

[Troublemaker]

He started last night and and played a few more minutes but had his least productive game of the three he’s played. So, obviously, back to the bench!

Meanwhile, Sideshow Bob... I mean Coby White... has started all three games.

To be clear, Little came off the bench but did end up playing more minutes than Brooks, although that could be due to the blowout nature of the game. (It was 52-26 at the half).

Brooks really has played well this season thus far, so I can understand (even if I disagree) why a two-big coach like Roy would start him over Little. And if Little receives 6th-man's minutes (20-25 mpg), that by itself shouldn't be enough to keep him out of the draft.

What would be really damning though is if, in the minutes he plays, Little looks not nearly as good as Duke's 3 wing studs despite Little having being ranked right there with those guys coming out of high school and Little racking up lots of highlights against our 3 guys in All-Star games.

Seriously, Offseason-UNC-Fan has all the prepared GIFs/videos of Little shutting down Barrett and Reddish, hitting a stepback on Zion, and breaking Zion's thumb with his masculinity. But will In-Season-UNC-Fan have to sheepishly make excuses for why Little isn't performing as well as the 3 Dukies? I think so.

[elvis14]

After the Ky win, I wandered over to IC to soak in the tears. A few things I learned:



They are obsessed with us. Literally 10 threads on the front page.
Like everyone else, they are obsessed with Zion. Oh and it's just a given that we paid him more than Kansas, otherwise he'd be playing for them.
UNCheat can beat Duke because Little can guard any of our 3 best freshman. Not sure how that logic plays out, it's almost like they don't understand that we are going to play all 3 at once and they only have one version of Little.
UNCheat fans are not happy that Little isn't starting and playing more (they aren't all dumb).


I hope that Little continues to be held back and serves as a warning to other top players of what not to do.

[JasonEvans]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, Tre Jones is projected as #30 on nbadraft.net now.

Yeah, I noticed that this morning. My "snip" image didn't get all the way down to pick #30. We should continues to track this. I believe this makes NBADraft.net the first of the major draft sites to project Tre as a OAD player.

-Jason "it is really too early to know much of anything about Tre... his play over the course of the season will go a long way to determining whether he will be back for his soph season" Evans

[UrinalCake]

But will In-Season-UNC-Fan have to sheepishly make excuses for why Little isn't performing as well as the 3 Dukies? I think so.

Their explanation is that Roy cares more about winning than about showcasing players for the NBA, and that Little has much more honor than our players because he is willing to go to a program where he has to earn it rather than having a starting job handed to him.

They also conveniently forget that Little was choosing between two other schools that were both mentioned in the FBI indictments, and only came to UNC because he had no other choice. Of course, when he chooses to stay for another year (and I win my pie!) it will be because he loves Carolina so much.

[SavDukeGrad]

After the Ky win, I wandered over to IC to soak in the tears. A few things I learned:



They are obsessed with us. Literally 10 threads on the front page.
Like everyone else, they are obsessed with Zion. Oh and it's just a given that we paid him more than Kansas, otherwise he'd be playing for them.
UNCheat can beat Duke because Little can guard any of our 3 best freshman. Not sure how that logic plays out, it's almost like they don't understand that we are going to play all 3 at once and they only have one version of Little.
UNCheat fans are not happy that Little isn't starting and playing more (they aren't all dumb).


I hope that Little continues to be held back and serves as a warning to other top players of what not to do.

You are absolutely right about their obsession with us!

I checked IC out for myself last night, and they had a thread titled “Would Zion start here”.

Paraphrasing, but my favorite from one poster - since Little is more skilled than Zion, and Little doesn’t even start, there’s no way Zion would start. Roy knows best; Trust in Roy!

Truly entertaining - I just hope the 5* recruits are paying attention.

[ChillinDuke]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, Tre Jones is projected as #30 on nbadraft.net now.

Shocking! Shocking, I say!

- Chillin

PS - Pie.

[Devils Librarian]

After the Ky win, I wandered over to IC to soak in the tears. A few things I learned:



They are obsessed with us. Literally 10 threads on the front page.
Like everyone else, they are obsessed with Zion. Oh and it's just a given that we paid him more than Kansas, otherwise he'd be playing for them.
UNCheat can beat Duke because Little can guard any of our 3 best freshman. Not sure how that logic plays out, it's almost like they don't understand that we are going to play all 3 at once and they only have one version of Little.
UNCheat fans are not happy that Little isn't starting and playing more (they aren't all dumb).


I hope that Little continues to be held back and serves as a warning to other top players of what not to do.


A small part of me truly expected UNC-CH people to forgo throwing around accusations of cheating after learning that their program was involved in two decades of fraud. I was wrong.

[JasonEvans]

I checked IC out for myself last night, and they had a thread titled “Would Zion start here”.

Perhaps the poster in question was posting from Charlotte and was wondering whether Zion would start for the Hornets ahead of the personification of NBA mediocrity, Marvin Williams.

[elvis14]

A small part of me truly expected UNC-CH people to forgo throwing around accusations of cheating after learning that their program was involved in two decades of fraud. I was wrong.

They truly believe that they did nothing wrong and that the NCAA cleared them of all wrongdoing. One post said something about how we pay Zion and nothing is said but they go through so much for 'two crib courses'. The NCAA said they wouldn't punish them because they wouldn't rule on the validity of a course (Wainstein report be damned), they did not 'clear' them. But I don't take IC seriously. I like to visit there after games like Ky to bathe in their tears. It can be tough reading though because everything comes back to us and it's all negative hyperbole.

[Devils Librarian]

They truly believe that they did nothing wrong and that the NCAA cleared them of all wrongdoing. One post said something about how we pay Zion and nothing is said but they go through so much for 'two crib courses'. The NCAA said they wouldn't punish them because they wouldn't rule on the validity of a course (Wainstein report be damned), they did not 'clear' them. But I don't take IC seriously. I like to visit there after games like Ky to bathe in their tears. It can be tough reading though because everything comes back to us and it's all negative hyperbole.


You are so right. The past decade has brought dramatic change to the status of their program, and that has to be something that is hard for their fans to deal with. For example, when I first arrived in Durham in 2010 I was constantly told by UNC-CH friends that:

Duke makes good college players, but Carolina makes NBA players.


Duke will never beat Carolina for big men because Duke only shoots threes.


Duke will fade once K leaves because he has no coaching tree.


K cannot recruit the way that Roy does.


And my personal favorite, Carolina does things the right way.

That was eight years ago. Now look where we are at. We laugh all the time on this board about who UNC-ch's best current NBA player is. We laugh at their attempts to recruit. We wonder where Roy's coaching tree is. And of course the "Carolina Way" is dead and buried.

[accfanfrom1970]

And of course the "Carolina Way" is dead and buried.[/QUOTE]

You are too kind. Dead and buried has a normal solemn feel to it. I prefer it died, various critters came by and crapped on it, various other types of exrement, spit on it, cursed on it, set it on fire, then buried it. Then drove over it, exhumed it and started all over again. But that’s just me :)

[yancem]

The biggest take away from the current production from Little is how does it affect Cole Anthony? From what I have read, most recruiting gurus seem to think that unc is the leader for Anthony. It has never made much sense to me but apparently, he is good friends with Bacot and they still have some remaing Jordan sway? Regardless, if Little continues to be simple a solid role player and his draft stock slips even further, you have to think Greg Anthony is smart enough to stear his son away from O'lRoy. Not saying that means Duke suddenly becomes an option but at this point ABC!!!

[UrinalCake]

I also find it amusing that Jontay Porter of Missouri suffered a season-ending injury prior to the season starting, yet still managed to leapfrog over Little.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The biggest take away from the current production from Little is how does it affect Cole Anthony? From what I have read, most recruiting gurus seem to think that unc is the leader for Anthony. It has never made much sense to me but apparently, he is good friends with Bacot and they still have some remaing Jordan sway? Regardless, if Little continues to be simple a solid role player and his draft stock slips even further, you have to think Greg Anthony is smart enough to stear his son away from O'lRoy. Not saying that means Duke suddenly becomes an option but at this point ABC!!!

Considering how poor Coby White has started the season as the starting PG for UNC, I think things between the Tar Heels and Cole Anthony are serious. I recall a lot of talk about White being a potential one-and-done, along with Little. Of course, these were probably the same people that were hyping Jalek Felton last offseason. I hope things turn out better for White (off the court, at least).

Roy has a real conundrum on his hands. It's not that he doesn't want his freshmen to start. White has started all three games. It's that he will avoid playing his four best players at the same time. Luke Maye, Cam Johnson, Kenny Williams, and Nassir Little are the best 4 players that UNC can have on the court at the same time. But none of those four are a point guard or center, two positions that Roy feels are crucial to the success of the team. And so he seems to be sacrificing the NBA Draft Stock of his most talented player so that he can have his seniors on the court together. That is the sort of decision that everyone recruiting against Roy and UNC is going to say to the high school kids. Sure, everyone gets minutes in Chapel Hill. But do you really want to be riding the pine for 10 extra minutes a game when the team could be just as good or better with a shorter rotation?

[Owen Meany]

They also conveniently forget that Little was choosing between two other schools that were both mentioned in the FBI indictments, and only came to UNC because he had no other choice. Of course, when he chooses to stay for another year (and I win my pie!) it will be because he loves Carolina so much.

It's important to remember that we are dealing with shady characters who were willing to break the rules to make money off of these kids. These guys are hustlers and it was to their benefit to exaggerate or fabricate their closeness to the families in question so they look important and can get paid. Even if they managed to get paid,it would be far from certain that the families of players, or any of the many intermediaries present received anything at all. Such is the nature of illegal payments that couldn't be discussed.

Zion's dad was mentioned in a vague claim that he was looking to see what was available. Little was mentioned in much more detail, by the exact same individual (Merl Code).


Assistant United States attorney Eli Mark then presented a wiretapped phone call into evidence. On the call, former Adidas executive Merl Code Jr. told Gatto, also a former Adidas executive, that the Wildcats had offered $150,000 for Little. Gatto and Code then discussed whether Adidas would be able to match, although the call does not acknowledge whether the Hurricanes were aware.

Code discusses in detail what was needed (didn't think they would take $100,000 but might $125,000) and how he could arrange it (smaller payments beginning in January).


It is important to note that I believe Code later commented to a different person that Little's family was not, in fact, going to take money. He was saying whatever he needed to inflate his importance and to get money for himself and the other middlemen involved. He is not to be believed.

It would be entirely inconsistent and dishonest to dismiss Code 's accusations about Little, but accept at face value his claims about Zion. Is it surprising that UNC fans have chosen to do so? No. It is amazing that they would claim to take the high road on any ethical matter after the revelation of a decade old program of in house academic fraud. Not only are they unwilling to accept any punishment for the greatest example of academic fraud in Ncaa history, many aren't even willing to give up the sham that is "the Carolina Way".

[JasonEvans]

And of course the "Carolina Way" is dead and buried.

There are many who would say it never existed. It was a product of a lie.

[Nugget]

Considering how poor Coby White has started the season as the starting PG for UNC, I think things between the Tar Heels and Cole Anthony are serious. I recall a lot of talk about White being a potential one-and-done, along with Little. Of course, these were probably the same people that were hyping Jalek Felton last offseason. I hope things turn out better for White (off the court, at least).

Roy has a real conundrum on his hands. It's not that he doesn't want his freshmen to start. White has started all three games. It's that he will avoid playing his four best players at the same time. Luke Maye, Cam Johnson, Kenny Williams, and Nassir Little are the best 4 players that UNC can have on the court at the same time. But none of those four are a point guard or center, two positions that Roy feels are crucial to the success of the team. And so he seems to be sacrificing the NBA Draft Stock of his most talented player so that he can have his seniors on the court together. That is the sort of decision that everyone recruiting against Roy and UNC is going to say to the high school kids. Sure, everyone gets minutes in Chapel Hill. But do you really want to be riding the pine for 10 extra minutes a game when the team could be just as good or better with a shorter rotation?

What's annoying about Roy hiding Little is that he didn't rigidly stick to the approach of keeping a "center" on the floor at least against us last year. He (smartly) countered our twin towers approach by spreading the floor with his shooters -- albeit, he was partly able to do this based on the unique ability of Theo Pinson to guard so many positions. In the 3 games against us, Carolina's minutes last year were:

PG Berry - 37
W Kenny Williams - 36
W Cam Johnson - 33
W Pinson - 30
PF Maye - 33

C/PF Brooks - 13
C Manley - 5
W Brandon Robinson - 5
G Woods - 4
G Platek - 3

[Nugget]

These may be a little out of date (from 4-5 days ago), but a couple more to add to Jason's "tracker" list:

"Hoops Hype" Aggregate (of NBADraft.net, Givony/ESPN, Sporting News, Bleacher Rept, SI.com and The Athletic)

1 RJ Barrett
2 Zion Williamson
3 Nassir Little
4 Cam Reddish
5 Romeo Langford
7 Quentin Grimes
10 DeAndre Hunter
12 Darius Garland
13 Keldon Johnson
17 Jaylen Hoard
19 PJ Washington
29 Nickeil Alexander-Walker
34 Coby White
50 Ashton Hagans
51 Tyler Herro
57 Tre Jones

CBS - 1st round
1 RJ
2 Zion
3 Cam
4 Langford
5 Little
6 Q. Grimes
9 K. Johnson
10 D. Hunter
13 D. Garland
20 J. Hoard
23 Alexander-Walker
24 PJ Washington
25 Hagans
28 Coby White

[NSDukeFan]

It's important to remember that we are dealing with shady characters who were willing to break the rules to make money off of these kids. These guys are hustlers and it was to their benefit to exaggerate or fabricate their closeness to the families in question so they look important and can get paid. Even if they managed to get paid,it would be far from certain that the families of players, or any of the many intermediaries present received anything at all. Such is the nature of illegal payments that couldn't be discussed.

Zion's dad was mentioned in a vague claim that he was looking to see what was available. Little was mentioned in much more detail, by the exact same individual (Merl Code).


Assistant United States attorney Eli Mark then presented a wiretapped phone call into evidence. On the call, former Adidas executive Merl Code Jr. told Gatto, also a former Adidas executive, that the Wildcats had offered $150,000 for Little. Gatto and Code then discussed whether Adidas would be able to match, although the call does not acknowledge whether the Hurricanes were aware.

Code discusses in detail what was needed (didn't think they would take $100,000 but might $125,000) and how he could arrange it (smaller payments beginning in January).


It is important to note that I believe Code later commented to a different person that Little's family was not, in fact, going to take money. He was saying whatever he needed to inflate his importance and to get money for himself and the other middlemen involved. He is not to be believed.

It would be entirely inconsistent and dishonest to dismiss Code 's accusations about Little, but accept at face value his claims about Zion. Is it surprising that UNC fans have chosen to do so? No. It is amazing that they would claim to take the high road on any ethical matter after the revelation of a decade old program of in house academic fraud. Not only are they unwilling to accept any punishment for the greatest example of academic fraud in Ncaa history, many aren't even willing to give up the sham that is "the Carolina Way".


There are many who would say it never existed. It was a product of a lie.
The Carolina Way
- cheating since at least 1989?
- turning one and dones into multi year players and destroying draft stocks since 2011?

[UrinalCake]

It's important to remember that we are dealing with shady characters who were willing to break the rules to make money off of these kids. These guys are hustlers and it was to their benefit to exaggerate or fabricate their closeness to the families in question so they look important and can get paid. Even if they managed to get paid,it would be far from certain that the families of players, or any of the many intermediaries present received anything at all. Such is the nature of illegal payments that couldn't be discussed.

Everything I’ve read says that Little is clean. The bag man that was supposed to deliver money to his family wound up keeping the money for himself (and ironically that is what kept him out of the FBI trial, since he never delivered any money) and the FBI has said that Little’s family had no knowledge of anything. As much as I would like for him to have been involved, all evidence points to the contrary.

My point was that Little did not initially want to go to UNC. He was forced into going there because Miami and Arizona got busted and he had to steer clear. UNC fans describe him as a Tar Heel through and through and proof that Roy can still land elite talent, but that is not the case.

[SavDukeGrad]

My point was that Little did not initially want to go to UNC. He was forced into going there because Miami and Arizona got busted and he had to steer clear. UNC fans describe him as a Tar Heel through and through and proof that Roy can still land elite talent, but that is not the case.


This. Also don’t I remember that the timing of his commitment was unexpected? I thought at the time that his family may be afraid that schools would start backing off him since he was named in the initial FBI report, and they wanted to “strike while the iron was hot” before schools had a chance to re-evaluate.

[Owen Meany]

Everything I’ve read says that Little is clean. The bag man that was supposed to deliver money to his family wound up keeping the money for himself (and ironically that is what kept him out of the FBI trial, since he never delivered any money) and the FBI has said that Little’s family had no knowledge of anything. As much as I would like for him to have been involved, all evidence points to the contrary.

My point was that Little did not initially want to go to UNC. He was forced into going there because Miami and Arizona got busted and he had to steer clear. UNC fans describe him as a Tar Heel through and through and proof that Roy can still land elite talent, but that is not the case.

This was my point. Merl Code made similar claims about Little (but with much more specificity - offered 150,000 by Az, need at least 125, how to structure payouts, etc). Evidence later came out that appears to show he was lying. So why would anyone put any faith into similar claims he made about anyone else (including the vague claim that someone's dad was interested in getting some type of benefits). Its understandable that UNC fans would ignore the hypocrisy of this, but reporters surely know these specifics and reported on Williamson but chose to ignore (and not include in their reporting) the fact that Code had made similar, false claims.

Personally, I don't want to see any of these kids mixed up in this mess. Little was fortunate that Code actually contradicted himself in a recorded conversation - otherwise there would be no way of proving his innocence.

[DavidBenAkiva]

What's annoying about Roy hiding Little is that he didn't rigidly stick to the approach of keeping a "center" on the floor at least against us last year. He (smartly) countered our twin towers approach by spreading the floor with his shooters -- albeit, he was partly able to do this based on the unique ability of Theo Pinson to guard so many positions. In the 3 games against us, Carolina's minutes last year were:

PG Berry - 37
W Kenny Williams - 36
W Cam Johnson - 33
W Pinson - 30
PF Maye - 33

C/PF Brooks - 13
C Manley - 5
W Brandon Robinson - 5
G Woods - 4
G Platek - 3

Great point. With the loss of Tony Bradley to the NBA, Roy was pressed to go small on account of the freshmen big men. He couldn't trust Brooks and Manley to do anything to slow down Bagley and Carter. As a result, he had to adapt to a more modern system where Pinson was a playmaker and guarding Bagley. Like with Calipari and the 2 post lineup at UK, I am hoping that Roy falls into his old habits and forces Brooks and Manley into the lineup this year to play more like he would like.

Also, shoutout above for pointing Hoops Hype Aggregate. I think that should be the standard site for tracking mock drafts. I hadn't seen that before. Much appreciated.

[UrinalCake]

Just listened to the latest Game Theory podcast where college basketball expert Sam Vecine and NBA expert Chris Stone discuss NBA prospects. After gushing about Zion for a while, the discussion turns to Little. Both analysts are completely dumbfounded by Roy’s decision to bring Little off the bench and play him with the second unit. They liken it to if Toronto chose to bring Kawhi Leonard off the bench. They say that if Roy started Little he would have one if the top 3 offenses in the country, that overall UNC is arguably the second most talented team in the country behind Duke but it is being wasted because Roy wants to play two bigs. Vecine concludes the segment by outright stating “it feels like Roy is trying to hold him back.”

[kAzE]

Just listened to the latest Game Theory podcast where college basketball expert Sam Vecine and NBA expert Chris Stone discuss NBA prospects. After gushing about Zion for a while, the discussion turns to Little. Both analysts are completely dumbfounded by Roy’s decision to bring Little off the bench and play him with the second unit. They liken it to if Toronto chose to bring Kawhi Leonard off the bench. They say that if Roy started Little he would have one if the top 3 offenses in the country, that overall UNC is arguably the second most talented team in the country behind Duke but it is being wasted because Roy wants to play two bigs. Vecine concludes the segment by outright stating “it feels like Roy is trying to hold him back.”

Well, it's easier to tank the draft stock of a top 5 freshman and force him to come back for another year than to recruit another top 5 freshman next year. Ol' Roy's just trying to do the best for his team, at the expense of his players. Nothing new.

Nassir Little would be wise to go pro, if he keeps improving, he might only get like 5 minutes per game next year :p

[sagegrouse]

Just listened to the latest Game Theory podcast where college basketball expert Sam Vecine and NBA expert Chris Stone discuss NBA prospects. After gushing about Zion for a while, the discussion turns to Little. Both analysts are completely dumbfounded by Roy’s decision to bring Little off the bench and play him with the second unit. They liken it to if Toronto chose to bring Kawhi Leonard off the bench. They say that if Roy started Little he would have one if the top 3 offenses in the country, that overall UNC is arguably the second most talented team in the country behind Duke but it is being wasted because Roy wants to play two bigs. Vecine concludes the segment by outright stating “it feels like Roy is trying to hold him back.”

Oops! Someone blurted the truth about Roy's player management. Of course, it's working....

[GoDevils2018]

It would be absolutely amazing if Zion, RJ, and Cam were to go 1, 2, 3 in the draft. I wonder what the record would be for players from one team going consecutively to start the draft?

[johnb]

It would be absolutely amazing if Zion, RJ, and Cam were to go 1, 2, 3 in the draft. I wonder what the record would be for players from one team going consecutively to start the draft?

Only 11 schools have ever had 3 or more players drafted in the first round in the same year. Kentucky leads the way with 5. Duke has had 4.

The closest to 1-2-3 (ie, the highest drafted 3rd player):

Florida 2007 (3, 7, 9)
Indiana 1976 (2, 7, 11)
Kentucky 2015 (1, 6, 12, 13)
UNLV 1991 (1, 9, 12)

3/4 of these entered the NCAA tournament undefeated after having spent their entire seasons ranked #1. 2/3 of those undefeated teams then lost in the tourney. 1/4 lost to Duke. 1/4 went on to win its 2nd straight.

I had quite a bit more data, but they got lost when I tried to save.
Source:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/draft_finder.cgi

[JNort]

Only 11 schools have ever had 3 or more players drafted in the first round in the same year. Kentucky leads the way with 5. Duke has had 4.

The closest to 1-2-3 (ie, the highest drafted 3rd player):

Florida 2007 (3, 7, 9)
Indiana 1976 (2, 7, 11)
Kentucky 2015 (1, 6, 12, 13)
UNLV 1991 (1, 9, 12)

3/4 of these entered the NCAA tournament undefeated after having spent their entire seasons ranked #1. 2/3 of those undefeated teams then lost in the tourney. 1/4 lost to Duke. 1/4 went on to win its 2nd straight.

I had quite a bit more data, but they got lost when I tried to save.
Source:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/draft_finder.cgi

2012 UK had the top two picks. Anthony Davis 1 and MKG went number 2

[johnb]

2012 UK had the top two picks. Anthony Davis 1 and MKG went number 2

Kentucky’s draft in 2012: 4 in the 1st round. 2 in the second. Given that Cal cares about the draft more than the season (or at least he does when his drafts>seasons), this was a great year.

But this particular question was who came closest to 1-2-3, and Ky’s 3rd highest pick in 2012 was ”only” 18, so they lose.

I also didn’t mention the schools which likely would have had 3 go pro if that had been allowed, or that our 3 guys will all be teens while all the Indiana and Florida guys were grizzled 21 and 22 year olds who’d had elite runs the prior year...

Oh, and Duke’s best?
1999: 1, 11, 13, 14
This would be the 5th highest trio (using the lowest of the 3 as the key variable).

[sagegrouse]

Kentucky’s draft in 2012: 4 in the 1st round. 2 in the second. Given that Cal cares about the draft more than the season (or at least he does when his drafts>seasons), this was a great year.

But this particular question was who came closest to 1-2-3, and Ky’s 3rd highest pick in 2012 was ”only” 18, so they lose.

I also didn’t mention the schools which likely would have had 3 go pro if that had been allowed, or that our 3 guys will all be teens while all the Indiana and Florida guys were grizzled 21 and 22 year olds who’d had elite runs the prior year...

Oh, and Duke’s best?
1999: 1, 11, 13, 14
This would be the 5th highest trio (using the lowest of the 3 as the key variable).

Ah, yes. Metrics!! So, 1-2-18 is worse than 3-7-9? It depends on what weights you use. If one uses "sum of the digits" it is -- 21 vs. 19. If one uses rookie salary, it isn't -- $14.69 million for 1-2-18 is higher than $11.75 million for 3-7-9. If one uses simply the third drafted -- say 18 vs. 9 -- that's a little silly because it mean that 16-17-18 is the same as 1-2-18.

Anyway, back to the wildlife -- lots of elk in the yard this AM.

[Indoor66]

Anyway, back to the wildlife -- lots of elk in the yard this AM.

Gettin to be Steamboat weather time. 😀😎

[sagegrouse]

Gettin to be Steamboat weather time. 😀😎

Weather forecast for today (https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USCO0369:1:US).

[johnb]

Ah, yes. Metrics!! So, 1-2-18 is worse than 3-7-9? It depends on what weights you use. If one uses "sum of the digits" it is -- 21 vs. 19. If one uses rookie salary, it isn't -- $14.69 million for 1-2-18 is higher than $11.75 million for 3-7-9. If one uses simply the third drafted -- say 18 vs. 9 -- that's a little silly because it mean that 16-17-18 is the same as 1-2-18.

Anyway, back to the wildlife -- lots of elk in the yard this AM.

Exactly right.

I was using the rules of going low in 7 card stud, but one can argue...

[WNC]

2012 UK had the top two picks. Anthony Davis 1 and MKG went number 2

Not sure Charlotte considers it as great of a day as Calipari did.

[JNort]

Kentucky’s draft in 2012: 4 in the 1st round. 2 in the second. Given that Cal cares about the draft more than the season (or at least he does when his drafts>seasons), this was a great year.

But this particular question was who came closest to 1-2-3, and Ky’s 3rd highest pick in 2012 was ”only” 18, so they lose.

I also didn’t mention the schools which likely would have had 3 go pro if that had been allowed, or that our 3 guys will all be teens while all the Indiana and Florida guys were grizzled 21 and 22 year olds who’d had elite runs the prior year...

Oh, and Duke’s best?
1999: 1, 11, 13, 14
This would be the 5th highest trio (using the lowest of the 3 as the key variable).
I wholly disagree, they win easily. If its getting all 3 of the top picks then they are the only ones to get 2/3 of that proposal. Doesn't matter if they didn't have another player picked in the entire draft, they still got the closest.

[Troublemaker]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, Tre Jones is projected as #30 on nbadraft.net now.


Shocking! Shocking, I say!

- Chillin

PS - Pie.

Sam Vecenie‏Verified account @Sam_Vecenie (https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie) 17h17 hours ago (https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/1064667642689138688)
Tre Jones is a first round pick. For sure.


The NBA draftniks like Vecenie are definitely starting to notice.

Tre's defense and basketball IQ have value.

[dukelifer]

Sam Vecenie‏Verified account @Sam_Vecenie (https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie) 17h17 hours ago (https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/1064667642689138688)
Tre Jones is a first round pick. For sure.


The NBA draftniks like Vecenie are definitely starting to notice.

Tre's defense and basketball IQ have value.

He will be a first round pick but he needs to get better as a shooter and finisher to play meaningful minutes. But he will probably want to learn that at the next level. His court vision is elite.

[Troublemaker]

He will be a first round pick but he needs to get better as a shooter and finisher to play meaningful minutes. But he will probably want to learn that at the next level. His court vision is elite.

Sure, and he's also just 18 years old. There's a chance. Plus, few players are really complete. I mean, if Tre could shoot a good percentage at decent volume (say, 3 attempts a game), he might be a lottery pick, given his other positives.

[Troublemaker]

NBA teams have been drafting strictly on potential throughout the OAD era. So theoretically Tre’s draft projections should never be higher than they will be after this, his freshman year, where he has shown all of the skills and temperament needed to eventually become a solid NBA PG without any of the baggage or doubts that can attach themselves to a player who stays beyond his freshman year after he was considered to be worthy of a 1st round draft pick.

Say “Bye” to Tre while you still can because he is as good as gone. I hate it when one of our guys leaves before completing four years, but I have come to accept the reality of it.

ESPN is now projecting Tre to be the 21st best prospect in the 2019 draft on their Big Board: http://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable

Remember, DraftExpress merged into ESPN, so this is really the DraftExpress Big Board.

Yeah, Tre looks very likely to be OAD at this point, and I think Chillin' will win some pie.

[JasonEvans]

The latest NBADraft.net mock... about a week old so I would expect them to update again fairly soon.

Of note, they too have Tre going in the 2019 draft, as one of the final picks of the first round. They also have Bolden going in the middle of the 2nd round. Oh, and despite Roy's best efforts Nassir Little remains a top NBA prospect.

https://i.ibb.co/mXkWkzZ/Capture.png

[UrinalCake]

Jones is as good as gone. We might as well embrace it and enjoy watching him develop over the course of the season, because at this point I don't see any way he comes back. I'm surprised to not see Darius Garland from Vanderbilt on the board any more, I wonder if people think he will return to school after missing this season due to injury? He's one of the guys who would potentially be in competition with Jones as one of the first PG's taken.

The fact that Reddish is still at #4 tells me that this draft board is taking a longer-term view and isn't overreacting to things that happen from game to game. Because to be honest he's been struggling and looks nothing like a top-5 pick. There must be confidence that he'll figure out his role and begin realize his enormous potential.

I'm also a little surprised to see Bolden in the second round. My guess is that he'll declare without an agent and will put up good numbers at the combine, and maybe someone will take him in the second round. Reminds me a lot of Isaiah Hicks from down the street.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jones is as good as gone. We might as well embrace it and enjoy watching him develop over the course of the season, because at this point I don't see any way he comes back. I'm surprised to not see Darius Garland from Vanderbilt on the board any more, I wonder if people think he will return to school after missing this season due to injury? He's one of the guys who would potentially be in competition with Jones as one of the first PG's taken.

The fact that Reddish is still at #4 tells me that this draft board is taking a longer-term view and isn't overreacting to things that happen from game to game. Because to be honest he's been struggling and looks nothing like a top-5 pick. There must be confidence that he'll figure out his role and begin realize his enormous potential.

I'm also a little surprised to see Bolden in the second round. My guess is that he'll declare without an agent and will put up good numbers at the combine, and maybe someone will take him in the second round. Reminds me a lot of Isaiah Hicks from down the street.

Reddish is more or less playing the role that many expected he play at Duke - a secondary ball handler and 3rd option scorer. What's been particularly impressive about him is his defense. He's a killer on the wings in defense, stripping the ball, deflecting passes, and even blocking shots. Add to that his True Shooting Percentage is in line with Barrett and Jones while taking a lot of jump shots and you see he is an ideal player in the modern NBA. He has the length, quickness, skills, and mindset to guard almost any position on the court and has shown an ability to make shots off the dribble. So his floor is a 3-and-D at the 2 or the 3 with a ceiling of being a Paul George-like secondary playmaker and two-way player.

If I were picking between Reddish and Little, I'd be more inclined to believe that Reddish can improve his jump shot consistency than Little will figure out how to dribble the ball. Both are going to be in the NBA for a while.

[kAzE]

Reddish is more or less playing the role that many expected he play at Duke - a secondary ball handler and 3rd option scorer. What's been particularly impressive about him is his defense. He's a killer on the wings in defense, stripping the ball, deflecting passes, and even blocking shots. Add to that his True Shooting Percentage is in line with Barrett and Jones while taking a lot of jump shots and you see he is an ideal player in the modern NBA. He has the length, quickness, skills, and mindset to guard almost any position on the court and has shown an ability to make shots off the dribble. So his floor is a 3-and-D at the 2 or the 3 with a ceiling of being a Paul George-like secondary playmaker and two-way player.

If I were picking between Reddish and Little, I'd be more inclined to believe that Reddish can improve his jump shot consistency than Little will figure out how to dribble the ball. Both are going to be in the NBA for a while.

I'd also add that Cam is really skinny right now, which is probably the biggest thing holding him back from being a dominant two-way player at the college level. Once he gets into an NBA strength and conditioning program, I think that will really help his ability to finish in close, which he's had trouble with thus far at Duke. His frame just looks like it can be filled out. His body seems more similar to Paul George than Brandon Ingram (who I'm not sure will ever be able to put on significant weight).

[DavidBenAkiva]

I'd also add that Cam is really skinny right now, which is probably the biggest thing holding him back from being a dominant two-way player at the college level. Once he gets into an NBA strength and conditioning program, I think that will really help his ability to finish in close, which he's had trouble with thus far at Duke. His frame just looks like it can be filled out. His body seems more similar to Paul George than Brandon Ingram (who I'm not sure will ever be able to put on significant weight).

He definitely has that look of a Paul George or Jayson Tatum that will get bigger and be able to handle the rigors of the NBA.

Not that he's going to grow another 3 inches, but my favorite transformation is Giannis:
https://i.redd.it/h858nnnps1vz.jpg

[brlftz]

Man, UCLA with 3 projected first rounders, and not even ranked. That's weird. Their two losses are to UNC and MSU, so nothing to be ashamed about there. Their schedule is pretty crappy overall though. The only other decent team they've played is a weaker than usual Notre Dame, and they only won on a last second shot. Still, I wonder if they're a more dangerous team than people realize.

To get back on topic, re: Reddish, I'm not surprised to see him in the top half of the lottery still. If you look at what he succeeds at - defense and shooting threes - it's easy to project his value in the NBA and feel like you're reasonably certain that he can meet those expectations. Some guys dominate in college doing things that opponents in the NBA can take away entirely, but what Cam does translates really well.

[Nugget]

Jones is as good as gone. We might as well embrace it and enjoy watching him develop over the course of the season, because at this point I don't see any way he comes back.

Sadly, this is probably right.

Jonathan Givony of Draft Express/ESPN (who I think is a little better regarded than NBA Draft.net) has a new Top 100 with Tre at #21. If he's projected in that range at the end of the season --which seems highly likely given his excellent play so far -- it seems almost certain he would go.

Givony hasn't knocked Nassir Little despite Roy's limited PT -- he's still got Little at #3 (and Zion/RJ/Cam at 1, 2 and 4). He's also got Coby White at #28, which hopefully would indicate he goes too.

Bolden is not in Givony's Top 100. Personally, I think that is a more accurate projection than NBA Draft.net suggesting he would be picked in round 2.

[kAzE]

If this was 10 years ago, I think Bolden would be a 1st rounder almost guaranteed, but plodding big men (especially ones with limited offensive skill) just aren't as valuable these days. Even the billionaire's version of Bolden, Rudy Gobert, is starting to become a liability in a playoff series. Most of the best teams would just take him out to the 3 point line with their sweet shooting big men, effectively removing him from being able to help protect the rim. How many minutes does Jonas Valanciunas play in a playoff series against a fully healthy Boston Celtics squad? Probably close to none.

The only non-shooting bigs who still thrive in the league these days are the most mobile ones. Guys like Capela, Siakam, Draymond, and Harrell.

Everyone saw what happened with Bolden in the Gonzaga game. That's just a taste of what would happen at the NBA level.

[DavidBenAkiva]

If this was 10 years ago, I think Bolden would be a 1st rounder almost guaranteed, but plodding big men (especially ones with limited offensive skill) just aren't as valuable these days. Even the billionaire's version of Bolden, Rudy Gobert, is starting to become a liability in a playoff series. Most of the best teams would just take him out to the 3 point line with their sweet shooting big men, effectively removing him from being able to help protect the rim. How many minutes does Jonas Valanciunas play in a playoff series against a fully healthy Boston Celtics squad? Probably close to none.

The only non-shooting bigs who still thrive in the league these days are the most mobile ones. Guys like Capela, Siakam, Draymond, and Harrell.

Everyone saw what happened with Bolden in the Gonzaga game. That's just a taste of what would happen at the NBA level.

I find this to be a very fixed mindset. Bolden has definitively improved and he is still quite young. The fact is that he can protect the rim, he is mobile, and he has NBA size. One hole in his game right now is the inability to guard the ball screen. That's huge as it is a very common offensive set in the NBA. He's going to have to get better at that. He's probably working on it right now. But you can't teach that size, reach, and fluidity of movement he has. Few players have that.

And for all the talk about shooting big men taking over the NBA, it's hogwash. Clint Capela. Few centers in the NBA attempt to shoot the three. They get a ton of attention, but it's not like Andre Drummond or DeAndre Jordan are hurting for minutes in the modern NBA. If you look at the highest-scoring centers in the NBA, 9 of the 22 players averaging 10+ points per game even attempt more than 1 3-pointer a game. For every Brook Lopez, there is a Steven Adams. Heck, Willie Cauley-Stein is a starter! The thing that is going to make or break Bolden is his willingness to improve. We have seen glimpses in the latter part of last season and the beginning of this year of what he can be. I hope he sees it himself, the growth the he is capable of.

[kAzE]

I find this to be a very fixed mindset. Bolden has definitively improved and he is still quite young. The fact is that he can protect the rim, he is mobile, and he has NBA size. One hole in his game right now is the inability to guard the ball screen. That's huge as it is a very common offensive set in the NBA. He's going to have to get better at that. He's probably working on it right now. But you can't teach that size, reach, and fluidity of movement he has. Few players have that.

And for all the talk about shooting big men taking over the NBA, it's hogwash. Clint Capela. Few centers in the NBA attempt to shoot the three. They get a ton of attention, but it's not like Andre Drummond or DeAndre Jordan are hurting for minutes in the modern NBA. If you look at the highest-scoring centers in the NBA, 9 of the 22 players averaging 10+ points per game even attempt more than 1 3-pointer a game. For every Brook Lopez, there is a Steven Adams. Heck, Willie Cauley-Stein is a starter! The thing that is going to make or break Bolden is his willingness to improve. We have seen glimpses in the latter part of last season and the beginning of this year of what he can be. I hope he sees it himself, the growth the he is capable of.

I think you may have missed the 2nd paragraph of my post there. I said the non-shooting bigs who actually are effective in the league are the ones who are mobile. I even mentioned Clint Capela as one of my examples. DeAndre Jordan used to be in that category, but he's starting to slow down a bit.

So this is probably my hot take: I sincerely doubt a guy like Andre Drummond would be an asset to a modern NBA team in a 7 game playoff series. Yes, he puts up absolutely awesome numbers in the regular season, but guys like him, or Jonas Valanciunas just won't get it done on defense against the best teams in the league anymore. They most likely would have been fine a decade ago, but not the way teams like the Warriors or Celtics run their offense currently. Drummond trying to guard Kyrie Irving on a switch is a joke.

I'm also going to have to strongly disagree with you on the value of shooting big men. Almost nobody runs lineups with 2 non-shooters these days. You just can't do it that way anymore. The teams that can spread the floor the most with a 4-out-1-in or even 5-out offense are typically the best offensive teams. And it's not just about 3 point shooting. Anthony Davis is a great shooter at the center position, but he's more comfortable from around 18-22 feet than behind the 3 point line. That doesn't mean he doesn't space the floor, he just does it from mid-range. It's fine to have 1 non-shooting/rim running/screen setting big man, but once you have 2 guys who can't shoot, spacing becomes a real problem with all the switching defenses these days.

I'm not sure what category Bolden falls into just yet, since he is still far from a finished product, but I do know a couple of things about his career at Duke thus far: he's not a good defender in open space, and he's not a very good rebounder, or at least the numbers haven't shown that. We can talk about his potential, which is obviously great, but he's got less than 2 years until he graduates. We gotta see it on a consistent basis at some point if he wants to be drafted.

[jimsumner]

If Duke adds Stewart and/or Hurt to Carey and DeLaurier, Bolden may well decide that he's better off going pro after the 2019 season than after the 2020 season.

Idle speculation.

[arnie]

If Duke adds Stewart and/or Hurt to Carey and DeLaurier, Bolden may well decide that he's better off going pro after the 2019 season than after the 2020 season.

Idle speculation.

Makes sense, just think going pro for Marques means overseas.

[devilseven]

If Duke adds Stewart and/or Hurt to Carey and DeLaurier, Bolden may well decide that he's better off going pro after the 2019 season than after the 2020 season.

Idle speculation.

DBR to Bolden: It's over

[UrinalCake]

Makes sense, just think going pro for Marques means overseas.

I mean, it’s conceivable he could go to another school as a grad transfer and finish out his career somewhere he could get more minutes. It’s also possible that we land Stewart and/or Hurt and Bolden decides to stick around anyways, be part of the team and see things through. Who knows. From K’s perspective though, I think he’s just going to bring in as much talent as he can.

[CDu]

I mean, it’s conceivable he could go to another school as a grad transfer and finish out his career somewhere he could get more minutes. It’s also possible that we land Stewart and/or Hurt and Bolden decides to stick around anyways, be part of the team and see things through. Who knows. From K’s perspective though, I think he’s just going to bring in as much talent as he can.

Only if he has been working towards finishing school in 3 years. Which seems doubtful considering that he probably thought himself a one-and-done coming out of high school.

The other (that he decides to accept his role as a backup as a senior) is possible. Would seem unfortunate for him, but he just hasn't seemed to be the right fit for any of our teams so far in his 2+ years. As a freshman, he was the third-best option at center on a team that just had health issues. Last year, he was the third-best option at center on a team that needed guards/wings. This year, he's maybe the best option at center, but on a team that is best suited to play smallball, interchangeable parts with a smallball 5 like DeLaurier. And next year, he's looking like the second-best option at center.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I think you may have missed the 2nd paragraph of my post there. I said the non-shooting bigs who actually are effective in the league are the ones who are mobile. I even mentioned Clint Capela as one of my examples. DeAndre Jordan used to be in that category, but he's starting to slow down a bit.

So this is probably my hot take: I sincerely doubt a guy like Andre Drummond would be an asset to a modern NBA team in a 7 game playoff series. Yes, he puts up absolutely awesome numbers in the regular season, but guys like him, or Jonas Valanciunas just won't get it done on defense against the best teams in the league anymore. They most likely would have been fine a decade ago, but not the way teams like the Warriors or Celtics run their offense currently. Drummond trying to guard Kyrie Irving on a switch is a joke.

I'm also going to have to strongly disagree with you on the value of shooting big men. Almost nobody runs lineups with 2 non-shooters these days. You just can't do it that way anymore. The teams that can spread the floor the most with a 4-out-1-in or even 5-out offense are typically the best offensive teams. And it's not just about 3 point shooting. Anthony Davis is a great shooter at the center position, but he's more comfortable from around 18-22 feet than behind the 3 point line. That doesn't mean he doesn't space the floor, he just does it from mid-range. It's fine to have 1 non-shooting/rim running/screen setting big man, but once you have 2 guys who can't shoot, spacing becomes a real problem with all the switching defenses these days.

I'm not sure what category Bolden falls into just yet, since he is still far from a finished product, but I do know a couple of things about his career at Duke thus far: he's not a good defender in open space, and he's not a very good rebounder, or at least the numbers haven't shown that. We can talk about his potential, which is obviously great, but he's got less than 2 years until he graduates. We gotta see it on a consistent basis at some point if he wants to be drafted.

We seem to have very different visions for the role of Marques Bolden in the NBA. I see him starting on the bench and carving out a role if everything works out. So you are comparing him to Anthony Davis, which is ridiculous. He's almost certainly never going to be an offensive player like that and it is unfair to expect that of him. But he can carve out a role as a rim protector and rebounder. You mention the Warriors as a team where he wouldn't fit. That team has run out Andrew Bogut, Zaza Pachulia, and JaVale McGee at center for the last 4 years. Yes, Draymond Green will play the 5 for stretches of time. But Bolden isn't going to be a part of a "death lineup." There are many lineups where he could be effective, just like he was effective against Kentucky and Auburn.

And he is actually quite good when he gets switched onto smaller defenders. Look what he did to Jared Harper of Auburn or when he was switched onto Joel Berry last year against UNC. He is quick enough to stay close enough that his length becomes a problem. How many times did he block Harper in Maui? I recall at least twice. The problems he has are when he has to guard a ball screen. Jordan Sperber got into this on YouTube his review of the Gonzaga-Duke game. His recognition of this action is a problem, but something he can hopefully fix.

I'll finish by saying that I hope he doesn't feel like he's being run out of Duke. The sentiment around here reminds me a lot how the board viewed Quinn Cook after his junior year. Hardly anyone expected Cook to start his senior year over Sulaimon or Matt Jones. Look how that worked out. I hope for his sake that Bolden sees how Cook or Amile Jefferson approached their roles at Duke as a model. Adapt, grow, lead.

[CDu]

I'll finish by saying that I hope he doesn't feel like he's being run out of Duke. The sentiment around here reminds me a lot how the board viewed Quinn Cook after his junior year. Hardly anyone expected Cook to start his senior year over Sulaimon or Matt Jones. Look how that worked out. I hope for his sake that Bolden sees how Cook or Amile Jefferson approached their roles at Duke as a model. Adapt, grow, lead.

Umm, I don't think many (if any) people were expecting freshman Matt Jones to start over Cook. And I think a lot more than "hardly anyone" was expecting Cook to start. There was a lot of discussion about how Coach K has had success starting two PGs (the Duhon/Williams combo was referenced repeatedly).

There was certainly debate about which two of Cook, Winslow, and Sulaimon would start, but I don't think it was anywhere close to a "hardly anyone" backing Cook.

Conversely, Coach K has not had a lot of success with starting two centers. And with the game becoming more and more perimeter-oriented, it's hard to see Coach K changing his success with starting two centers next year.

As for Bolden, I hope he does whatever is best for him. If that's transferring with the hope of starting for a team as a fifth-year senior, so be it. If that's chasing the pro dream and leaving after this year, so be it. If that's being comfortable as a 10-15 mpg backup next year behind Carey, so be it. Whatever is best for him personally. But I don't see a path for him to be a 30+ mpg player at Duke next year barring injury to Carey or something to that effect.

The comps to Cook and Jefferson seem to be a reach to me. Cook had played 2200 minutes as a sophomore and junior. Jefferson had played over 1600 minutes as a sophomore and junior and was a senior starter on a short-handed team before getting hurt, then was a fifth-year senior with over 2200 career minutes played coming into his fifth year. And both players had shown positional versatility, which was key to them being able to start. Bolden has just now cleared the 700 minute mark for his career, and has consistently shown that he's a center and nothing but a center. It's really not a comparable situation.

[kAzE]

We seem to have very different visions for the role of Marques Bolden in the NBA. I see him starting on the bench and carving out a role if everything works out. So you are comparing him to Anthony Davis, which is ridiculous. He's almost certainly never going to be an offensive player like that and it is unfair to expect that of him. But he can carve out a role as a rim protector and rebounder. You mention the Warriors as a team where he wouldn't fit. That team has run out Andrew Bogut, Zaza Pachulia, and JaVale McGee at center for the last 4 years. Yes, Draymond Green will play the 5 for stretches of time. But Bolden isn't going to be a part of a "death lineup." There are many lineups where he could be effective, just like he was effective against Kentucky and Auburn.

And he is actually quite good when he gets switched onto smaller defenders. Look what he did to Jared Harper of Auburn or when he was switched onto Joel Berry last year against UNC. He is quick enough to stay close enough that his length becomes a problem. How many times did he block Harper in Maui? I recall at least twice. The problems he has are when he has to guard a ball screen. Jordan Sperber got into this on YouTube his review of the Gonzaga-Duke game. His recognition of this action is a problem, but something he can hopefully fix.

I'll finish by saying that I hope he doesn't feel like he's being run out of Duke. The sentiment around here reminds me a lot how the board viewed Quinn Cook after his junior year. Hardly anyone expected Cook to start his senior year over Sulaimon or Matt Jones. Look how that worked out. I hope for his sake that Bolden sees how Cook or Amile Jefferson approached their roles at Duke as a model. Adapt, grow, lead.

I don't think we're on the same page here. I mentioned Anthony Davis (as a great mid-range shooter) in response to your stat that the top centers don't shoot that many 3s, which is true. I definitely wasn't trying to compare him to Bolden. Also, I didn't mean to imply Bolden would be a bad fit on the Warriors (in fact, Damian Jones is basically a better version of Bolden), just that he would have an extremely hard time defending the Warriors (but so does just about everyone). Bolden just wouldn't be able to stay on the floor for a team playing against the Warriors in a win-or-go-home scenario. He just just be too big of a liability defending ball screens.

I think we disagree on Bolden's level of mobility. Yes, he is a fantastic athlete at the college level, but in the NBA, he's not that impressive IMO in comparison to the league average center in terms of ability to move laterally. The league is getting smaller and smaller. Montrezl Harrell is one of the best centers in the league now, and he's 6'8". LeBron plays center for the Lakers at times. Draymond has played center many times for the Warriors in the past 5 years. Mobility and playmaking ability is expected from centers now.

I totally agree that Bolden has things that are unteachable. The overall size and length he has is rare in an athlete with pretty fluid movement. What he lacks is a top-end motor and just quickness, both lateral quickness and quickness off of his feet. A guy his size should be a dominant rebounder, but Bolden has been far below average thus far in his college career. I don't mind him as a 10-15 minute back up as an elite rim protector and rim runner, but I can't see him being much more than a career backup in the NBA, and to me, he still has work to do to prove he belongs in the league.

[JasonEvans]

Time for another update...

https://i.ibb.co/nw5BfLX/Capture.png

By the way, amusing to note that Jontay Porter has been climbing in every mock published by NBADraft.net. He must be playing great**, ha!!

Cam's stock taking a hit with his recent shooting struggles. It increasingly appears that even Roy's best efforts to hide him cannot keep Nassir Little from being at least a mid-low lottery pick. Tre Jones checking in at the end of the 1st round. That is dangerous territory if you do not have a guarantee from some team. Meanwhile, Bolden appears to consistently be showing up in the late-2nd round. Seems to be a lot of buzz that he will turn pro despite not exactly lighting it up thus far this year.

-Jason "**- as you may be aware Porter is out for the entire year with an ACL tear" Evans

[DavidBenAkiva]

I'll do you one better, Jason. Here's the updated aggregate list that HoopsHype compiled earlier this week: https://hoopshype.com/2018/12/17/zion-williamson-mock-draft-college-basketball-rumors-updates/

Of note: Zion, R.J., and Cam are still 1-2-3.

Tre Jones checks in at 27 (although not listed by ESPN or SN).

Marques Bolden appears on only one draft list, the one from NBADraft.net.

Johntay Porter is a bit of an outlier on NBADraft.net, and is more likely to be in mid-to-late 1st round on other draft boards.

[Bob Green]

I'll acknowledge upfront that being ready for the NBA has nothing to do with whether a player declares for the NBA but Cam Reddish is not ready for the NBA. His shooting "cold streak" and shaky handle are indicators his stock could fall hard as the season progresses. Hopefully, he can snap out of it and start making some shots in 2019.

[kAzE]

I'll acknowledge upfront that being ready for the NBA has nothing to do with whether a player declares for the NBA but Cam Reddish is not ready for the NBA. His shooting "cold streak" and shaky handle are indicators his stock could fall hard as the season progresses. Hopefully, he can snap out of it and start making some shots in 2019.

But the problem is, they don't care if you're ready for the NBA or not. Players are drafted on potential. NBA readiness is a plus, but not required. Despite his rough stretch of games, it's plainly obvious to everyone that Cam is oozing with potential. And there's almost no chance he doesn't have a couple of huge games at some point soon.

[Sir Stealth]

I'll acknowledge upfront that being ready for the NBA has nothing to do with whether a player declares for the NBA but Cam Reddish is not ready for the NBA. His shooting "cold streak" and shaky handle are indicators his stock could fall hard as the season progresses. Hopefully, he can snap out of it and start making some shots in 2019.

Rather than see his stock drop, it seems more likely that Cam will see his shooting percentage take a positive swing back toward what he has demonstrated at other levels. His stroke still looks good - it's not like he forgot the skills that made him a top prospect (I hope I'm right about this, because Duke definitely needs him to be the reliable shooter that the starting lineup otherwise lacks). It's also somewhat likely that the game will continue to slow down for him as he gains experience and the team as a whole continues to learn how to fit together, leading to overall improvement for Cam that justifies his pedigree. I'm not so sure I agree about the handle criticism either - he is very skilled for a player his size.

[JasonEvans]

But the problem is, they don't care if you're ready for the NBA or not. Players are drafted on potential. NBA readiness is a plus, but not required. Despite his rough stretch of games, it's plainly obvious to everyone that Cam is oozing with potential. And there's almost no chance he doesn't have a couple of huge games at some point soon.

I'm starting to see Cam as a truly elite 3-and-D wing in the NBA. He will not be someone who leads a team in scoring, but can be a very important part and starter on a championship contending team (not right away, of course, but in time). Is a really great 3-and-D guy worth the #3 pick in the draft? I dunno... teams may choose to take a flier on Bol Bol's potential as a rim protector or some other guys who seem to be a bit better at creating their own shot... but there's no way I see Cam dropping out of the top 7 or so picks... unless he continues to shoot 20% from long range the rest of the season.

[kAzE]

I'm starting to see Cam as a truly elite 3-and-D wing in the NBA. He will not be someone who leads a team in scoring, but can be a very important part and starter on a championship contending team (not right away, of course, but in time). Is a really great 3-and-D guy worth the #3 pick in the draft? I dunno... teams may choose to take a flier on Bol Bol's potential as a rim protector or some other guys who seem to be a bit better at creating their own shot... but there's no way I see Cam dropping out of the top 7 or so picks... unless he continues to shoot 20% from long range the rest of the season.

As crazy as it sounds, I think wings have actually surpassed big men in terms of long term value for NBA franchises. Many big men require a certain team composition for optimal fit. Maybe they can't shoot, so they need to be surrounded with shooting. Maybe they can't defend or rebound (Okafor), so they just just don't play. 3 and D wings fit in any scheme, any offense, with any group of players. I see Cam as a player who can develop into a Paul George-lite. His skill level and physical attributes at this age are extremely promising.

You think either Phoenix or Sacramento is truly happy they picked Ayton and Bagley over Luka Doncic? (I know he's not the best example as a 3-and-D guy, but he's definitely got the 3 part down) Jayson Tatum might be a better example.

[DavidBenAkiva]

As crazy as it sounds, I think wings have actually surpassed big men in terms of long term value for NBA franchises. Many big men require a certain team composition for optimal fit. Maybe they can't shoot, so they need to be surrounded with shooting. Maybe they can't defend or rebound (Okafor), so they just just don't play. 3 and D wings fit in any scheme, any offense, with any group of players. I see Cam as a player who can develop into a Paul George-lite. His skill level and physical attributes at this age are extremely promising.

You think either Phoenix or Sacramento is truly happy they picked Ayton and Bagley over Luka Doncic? (I know he's not the best example as a 3-and-D guy, but he's definitely got the 3 part down) Jayson Tatum might be a better example.

Counterpoint: They did draft the 3-and-D guy the year before in Josh Jackson. And then they made a move to get Mikal Bridges this year. It's just that Jackson has not progressed as the Suns had hoped and have opted to start Bridges in his place.

One thing I love love love about Cam is that he is locked in on D every possession. He had a knock for being a guy that would sometimes be in and sometimes be out of a game. Has anyone seen him take a play off on the defensive end of the court? I can't recall. And his length and quickness are generating a ton of bad passes and steals. He has the makings of being a great defender and has shown flashes of shooting and handling the ball. Once he lets the game come to him on the offensive end, watch out.

[MChambers]

I know this is the 2019 Mock Draft thread, but don't want to create a 2020 thread, so am posting here:

Javin is listed at NBAdraft.net as going in the 2020 draft late in the second round, with the 58th pick.

[JasonEvans]

I know this is the 2019 Mock Draft thread, but don't want to create a 2020 thread, so am posting here:

Javin is listed at NBAdraft.net as going in the 2020 draft late in the second round, with the 58th pick.

A more bouncy and athletic, but a lot less skilled, version of Lance Thomas and Amile Jefferson. I could certainly see a NBA team using a 2nd rounder on him and would not be entirely shocked if he someday found a role in the league as a small-ball rebounder/rim protector.

[UrinalCake]

But the problem is, they don't care if you're ready for the NBA or not. Players are drafted on potential. NBA readiness is a plus, but not required. Despite his rough stretch of games, it's plainly obvious to everyone that Cam is oozing with potential.

Teams draft on potential, but you have to prove that that potential actually exists. If Cam finishes the season shooting 30% from three, then teams will question whether that potential from high school will ever be realized. In other words, NBA teams want real potential, not potential potential 8-)

[sagegrouse]

Teams draft on potential, but you have to prove that that potential actually exists. If Cam finishes the season shooting 30% from three, then teams will question whether that potential from high school will ever be realized. In other words, NBA teams want real potential, not potential potential 8-)
What you say is potentially true.

[Indoor66]

What you say is potentially true.

And has potential as a Sage observation.

[JasonEvans]

All kidding aside, the debate with Cam is whether you use the #3 pick on him. He's a lottery lock even if he shoots 30% from 3 all season long. In fact, aside from a freak injury that looks like it will permanently alter his game, I'm not sure I can come up with a scenario where he falls outside the top 8-10 in the draft. He's just too skilled and his length/quickness are just too freakish. even struggling as much as he has lately, his impact on the defensive end of the floor is quite significant.

[richardjackson199]

All kidding aside, the debate with Cam is whether you use the #3 pick on him. He's a lottery lock even if he shoots 30% from 3 all season long. In fact, aside from a freak injury that looks like it will permanently alter his game, I'm not sure I can come up with a scenario where he falls outside the top 8-10 in the draft. He's just too skilled and his length/quickness are just too freakish. even struggling as much as he has lately, his impact on the defensive end of the floor is quite significant.

Yep. And his ceiling on the offensive end is Kevin Durant. Cam could be a steal at pick #3.

[NSDukeFan]

Teams draft on potential, but you have to prove that that potential actually exists. If Cam finishes the season shooting 30% from three, then teams will question whether that potential from high school will ever be realized. In other words, NBA teams want real potential, not potential potential 8-)

Unless it’s Bruno Caboclo, 2 years from being 2 years away?

[cato]

Teams draft on potential, but you have to prove that that potential actually exists. If Cam finishes the season shooting 30% from three, then teams will question whether that potential from high school will ever be realized. In other words, NBA teams want real potential, not potential potential 8-)

I agree with the point, but supposedly FT percentage is the better indicator, not 3P percentage.


Harrison Barnes seems a decent comparison for Cam.

[devildeac]

I agree with the point, but supposedly FT percentage is the better indicator, not 3P percentage.


Harrison Barnes seems a decent comparison for Cam.

Blasphemy.

:p:eek:

[arnie]

Blasphemy.

:p:eek:

Guess Little moved up today with another stellar performance.😀

[devildeac]

Guess Little moved up today with another stellar performance.😀

Good golly, please let that Little show up when we play them. Twice or even three times.

[arnie]

Good golly, please let that Little show up when we play them. Twice or even three times.

Roy’s expecting him to play against us 12 times

[NSDukeFan]

Where Dean Smith was the only one who could keep Jordan under 20 points per game, is Roy the only one who can keep Little from being a top 5 pick? The legend lives on?

[ChillinDuke]

Well, Ole Roy's strategy might be starting to work.

Nassir Little had 2 pts and 2 rebs in 17 mins against NC State last night.

NBAdraft.net has Little clocking in at #14 now.

Oh, Roy...

Meanwhile, RJ and Zion are still 1-2. Cam at 6. Tre at 29.

- Chillin

[UrinalCake]

Little was absolutely lost last night. Even with the injury to Johnson he couldn't get into the rotation. When he was on the floor he just stood around, got blocked by a guard at least once.

You could have a reasonable debate over who is struggling more between Reddish and Little. But at least Reddish is being afforded a chance to play through his struggles and rebuild his confidence. Little is being hidden like he's the monster in Bird Box.

[COYS]

Little was absolutely lost last night. Even with the injury to Johnson he couldn't get into the rotation. When he was on the floor he just stood around, got blocked by a guard at least once.

You could have a reasonable debate over who is struggling more between Reddish and Little. But at least Reddish is being afforded a chance to play through his struggles and rebuild his confidence. Little is being hidden like he's the monster in Bird Box.

When you consider the defensive end, I don't think there's any debate. Cam is a very good defender (he'd be elite if he cut down on his fouls). Little was one of the Cheat's worst offensive AND defensive players when he was on the court.

[arnie]

When you consider the defensive end, I don't think there's any debate. Cam is a very good defender (he'd be elite if he cut down on his fouls). Little was one of the Cheat's worst offensive AND defensive players when he was on the court.

Roy has Little right where he wants him. The kid is befuddled and Roy has him interested in returning next year. Hope Anthony is watching.

[johnb]

I understand the emphasis on potential, and I don’t watch many non-Duke games, and I get that Cam has quickness, height, and a silky shot, but if his special talent is deemed to be offense, his biggest reported problem is the question as to whether he brings everything to every game, his “slump” is the mark of almost his entire freshman season, his steals are at least partly generated by strategies which take advantage of our dramatic edge in team athleticism (at least thus far in the season), and he is our 3rd most talented player but probably our 5th most effective player, I’d be really bummed if my hometown team (the relentlessly woeful Knicks) decide he’s the 3rd best available player in the world. I’d love to be surprised to the upside, and he does seem like a really good guy, but I can’t help but think Cam’s placement in the draft top 5 is at least somewhat related to the great storyline of the “top 3 recruits+Tre” rather than a 2019 assessment of his skillset.

OTOH, maybe his next 3 months will be awesome.

[kAzE]

I understand the emphasis on potential, and I don’t watch many non-Duke games, and I get that Cam has quickness, height, and a silky shot, but if his special talent is deemed to be offense, his biggest reported problem is the question as to whether he brings everything to every game, his “slump” is the mark of almost his entire freshman season, and he is our 3rd most talented player but probably our 5th most effective player, I’d be really bummed if my hometown team (the relentlessly woeful Knicks) decide he’s the 3rd best available player in the world. I’d love to be surprised to the upside, and he does seem like a really good guy, but I can’t help but think Cam’s placement in the draft top 5 is at least somewhat related to the great storyline of the “top 3 recruits+Tre” rather than a 2019 assessment of his current skillset.

OTOH, maybe his next 3 months will be awesome.

There's been a lot of overreaction to Cam's recent struggles, IMO. When you've had the ball in your hands as the go-to guy in every game you've ever played, it's really hard to suddenly become the 3rd offensive option. This is not a normal team. On a normal top 10-15 team, Cam would be the #1 option, and he would probably put up 20 a game easily. Cam will get better at his role throughout the year. I think we will learn how to move and play without the ball in his hands. He's been great on defense, so as long as his attitude is good and he's willing to sacrifice for the good of the team, he's going to make this team much better.

I think if someone gets him at #5 in the draft, it'll be a steal. He should definitely go 3rd.

[dukelifer]

There's been a lot of overreaction to Cam's recent struggles, IMO. When you've had the ball in your hands as the go-to guy in every game you've ever played, it's really hard to suddenly become the 3rd offensive option. This is not a normal team. On a normal top 10-15 team, Cam would be the #1 option, and he would probably put up 20 a game easily. Cam will get better at his role throughout the year. I think we will learn how to move and play without the ball in his hands. He's been great on defense, so as long as his attitude is good and he's willing to sacrifice for the good of the team, he's going to make this team much better.

I think if someone gets him at #5 in the draft, it'll be a steal. He should definitely go 3rd.

We will see where Cam ends up. He is certainly not wowing folks and his role in the NBA will NOT be the goto guy. His motor and focus have always been questioned and he has not done a lot to change that perception. The season is long and he can affect the view.

[DukeTrinity11]

There's been a lot of overreaction to Cam's recent struggles, IMO. When you've had the ball in your hands as the go-to guy in every game you've ever played, it's really hard to suddenly become the 3rd offensive option. This is not a normal team. On a normal top 10-15 team, Cam would be the #1 option, and he would probably put up 20 a game easily. Cam will get better at his role throughout the year. I think we will learn how to move and play without the ball in his hands. He's been great on defense, so as long as his attitude is good and he's willing to sacrifice for the good of the team, he's going to make this team much better.

I think if someone gets him at #5 in the draft, it'll be a steal. He should definitely go 3rd.
Cam would be not be a #1 on any top team right now, that's a BS take and you know it. He's simply unable to drive to the hoop without getting stripped and is in general a fouling and turnover machine. Cam's shooting mechanics have regressed too and his motor seems to fluctuate wildly.

Duke: Barrett, Williamson, White, Tre
Virginia: Jerome, Hunter, Guy
Tennessee: Bone, Schofield, Williams
Gonzaga: Hachimura, Clarke, Norvell
MSU: Winston, Ward

The list goes on and on. Cam honestly shouldn't be starting above Jack White anymore.

I'm not saying he won't improve but that's where we're at right now.

[Truth&Justise]

Cam would be not be a #1 on any top team right now, that's a BS take and you know it. He's simply unable to drive to the hoop without getting stripped and is in general a fouling and turnover machine. Cam's shooting mechanics have regressed too and his motor seems to fluctuate wildly.

. . .

Cam honestly shouldn't be starting above Jack White anymore.

I'm not saying he won't improve but that's where we're at right now.

I think Kaze's broader point stands--Cam Reddish was the #1 option on every team he's been on in his life until this point. So now he's learning to be a complimentary player for the first time.

But I'm curious what you mean by "his shooting mechanics have regressed"? Has he changed the way he is shooting the ball? Is his form different now than it was earlier?

[COYS]

Cam's . . . and his motor seems to fluctuate wildly.



I just don't think this is true. Cam is bringing it on every possession on defense and offense. On defense he's been incredibly effective. Of course he makes a few mistakes, but so does everyone. On Offense, if anything he's pressing too much and not letting the game come to him. I have seen nothing at all to indicate his motor is an issue. While the report on him coming out of high school was that he could disappear in games at times, I have seen nothing to indicate that this is an issue at Duke. The Wake game last night is a good example, in my opinion. He started the game off about as horribly as one could hope with two turnovers and a few bricked shots. But he stayed focused and ended up playing pretty ok on offense the rest of the way and made his usual impact on the defensive end.

Cam has been struggling. At times he's seemed frustrated (who wouldn't be?). But his motor has been more of an asset than a liability.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I just don't think this is true. Cam is bringing it on every possession on defense and offense. On defense he's been incredibly effective. Of course he makes a few mistakes, but so does everyone. On Offense, if anything he's pressing too much and not letting the game come to him. I have seen nothing at all to indicate his motor is an issue. While the report on him coming out of high school was that he could disappear in games at times, I have seen nothing to indicate that this is an issue at Duke. The Wake game last night is a good example, in my opinion. He started the game off about as horribly as one could hope with two turnovers and a few bricked shots. But he stayed focused and ended up playing pretty ok on offense the rest of the way and made his usual impact on the defensive end.

Cam has been struggling. At times he's seemed frustrated (who wouldn't be?). But his motor has been more of an asset than a liability.

I tend to agree with this. But that's what happens when you have two alphas on the team, which is a good thing for Cam's motor (as he's not the focus on the offense, his motor hasn't really come into question).

Cam, at this point, looks like a streaky 3pt shooter. Unfortunately, there is little he can do about this (think Luke Kennard during his freshman year). What kills me his drives. At this point, he's more likely to get stripped than miss/make a basket. His drives are really, really soft. I scream at the TV every time he tries it. I would love to see that move taken away from his arsenal. He's just too physically weak and slow to make his drives effective at this point.

[ChillinDuke]

I just don't think this is true. Cam is bringing it on every possession on defense and offense. On defense he's been incredibly effective. Of course he makes a few mistakes, but so does everyone. On Offense, if anything he's pressing too much and not letting the game come to him. I have seen nothing at all to indicate his motor is an issue. While the report on him coming out of high school was that he could disappear in games at times, I have seen nothing to indicate that this is an issue at Duke. The Wake game last night is a good example, in my opinion. He started the game off about as horribly as one could hope with two turnovers and a few bricked shots. But he stayed focused and ended up playing pretty ok on offense the rest of the way and made his usual impact on the defensive end.

Cam has been struggling. At times he's seemed frustrated (who wouldn't be?). But his motor has been more of an asset than a liability.

Look, he's struggling. It's obvious. I don't think anyone (that's a Duke fan) is rooting against him. We all want him to snap out of it. Nonetheless, he very well may still go Top-5 in the NBA Draft (I doubt it, but he certainly could).

Let's put all those sentences aside as givens, just to clear the air.

With that out of the way, I'm not sure I agree Cam has been incredibly effective on defense. He's shown flashes and he has great length and physical attributes that should theoretically allow him to bother passing lanes. But "incredibly effective"? I think Tre Jones could be defined as incredibly effective, in the Texas Tech game for example he was marvelous - perhaps my own personal version of basketball nirvana. I wouldn't use that term for Cam. He's gotten some steals, yes, many of which don't strike me as the direct result of Cam playing exceptional defense. That said, I still agree that this is one area of his game we can feel decent about - which is why I think people (maybe you, COYS, not sure) use terms like "incredibly effective" to describe Cam's defense and bolster Cam's profile. He's OK on defense - maybe above average - but I think people are starting to overstate this to make up for his clearly below average offense recently.

To be clear, I think Cam will break out of this, and I think he will do so this season. This is where K earns his keep. Getting someone like Cam, with all his physical attributes and pure skills, to find the adjustments he needs to find in order to become the best version of himself on the court. This strikes me as a situation that we will see happen this year - so long as Cam trusts in K and keeps his head up, which I do think it appears he's doing.

This is the overarching point I read in COYS' post: "motor" = "desire to break through this adjustment period." I think Cam is very much displaying a "motor".

- Chillin

[COYS]

Look, he's struggling. It's obvious. I don't think anyone (that's a Duke fan) is rooting against him. We all want him to snap out of it. Nonetheless, he very well may still go Top-5 in the NBA Draft (I doubt it, but he certainly could).

Let's put all those sentences aside as givens, just to clear the air.

With that out of the way, I'm not sure I agree Cam has been incredibly effective on defense. He's shown flashes and he has great length and physical attributes that should theoretically allow him to bother passing lanes. But "incredibly effective"? I think Tre Jones could be defined as incredibly effective, in the Texas Tech game for example he was marvelous - perhaps my own personal version of basketball nirvana. I wouldn't use that term for Cam. He's gotten some steals, yes, many of which don't strike me as the direct result of Cam playing exceptional defense. That said, I still agree that this is one area of his game we can feel decent about - which is why I think people (maybe you, COYS, not sure) use terms like "incredibly effective" to describe Cam's defense and bolster Cam's profile. He's OK on defense - maybe above average - but I think people are starting to overstate this to make up for his clearly below average offense recently.

To be clear, I think Cam will break out of this, and I think he will do so this season. This is where K earns his keep. Getting someone like Cam, with all his physical attributes and pure skills, to find the adjustments he needs to find in order to become the best version of himself on the court. This strikes me as a situation that we will see happen this year - so long as Cam trusts in K and keeps his head up, which I do think it appears he's doing.

This is the overarching point I read in COYS' post: "motor" = "desire to break through this adjustment period." I think Cam is very much displaying a "motor".

- Chillin

Hmm, Cam routinely makes savvy defensive plays that don't make it onto the highlight reels. I had the time to go through some of them in detail in previous games, although I admit I haven't had a chance to do this for Clemson and Wake. He's made a habit of shutting down opposing fast breaks even when he's the lone defender. He uses impeccable timing to force a pass from the primary ball handler and then uses his speed and length to recover to the other player and prevent an open look. He is sensational as an off the ball defender. He is able to both able to put himself in position for steals AND recover in time to maintain good position. As amazing as Zion and RJ can be off the ball, too, they both are more likely to take themselves out of the play going for steals than Cam (although Zion has the physical tools to recover like no other human on earth). In addition, his one on one defending skills are incredible no matter who he's switched onto. The only reason I wouldn't consider him an elite defender is his fouling, which is a legitimate concern.

This might be something that we just simply disagree with. But I am not trying to oversell Cam's defense in order to bolster his overall profile. To my eyes, he really is a great defender and does things on the court that very few of our previous OAD freshmen have been able to do.

[ChillinDuke]

Hmm, Cam routinely makes savvy defensive plays that don't make it onto the highlight reels. I had the time to go through some of them in detail in previous games, although I admit I haven't had a chance to do this for Clemson and Wake. He's made a habit of shutting down opposing fast breaks even when he's the lone defender. He uses impeccable timing to force a pass from the primary ball handler and then uses his speed and length to recover to the other player and prevent an open look. He is sensational as an off the ball defender. He is able to both able to put himself in position for steals AND recover in time to maintain good position. As amazing as Zion and RJ can be off the ball, too, they both are more likely to take themselves out of the play going for steals than Cam (although Zion has the physical tools to recover like no other human on earth). In addition, his one on one defending skills are incredible no matter who he's switched onto. The only reason I wouldn't consider him an elite defender is his fouling, which is a legitimate concern.

This might be something that we just simply disagree with. But I am not trying to oversell Cam's defense in order to bolster his overall profile. To my eyes, he really is a great defender and does things on the court that very few of our previous OAD freshmen have been able to do.

I certainly haven't noticed any of that, to be honest. And I'm definitely pretty interested in watching defense, so I'll keep my focus more on him in the coming games and try to get up to speed. Appreciate the explanation.

And although you may not be bolstering his profile by saying he's great at defense, I think a lot of posters might be.

Or maybe I'm just totally off on this one. Wouldn't be the first time.

- Chillin

[kAzE]

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/25700360/2019-nba-mock-draft-new-picks-knicks-bulls-wizards-celtics

Insider content, but I'll spoil the Duke guys. Givony has Zion #1, RJ #2, Cam #5, and Tre #22.

[kAzE]

Cam would be not be a #1 on any top team right now, that's a BS take and you know it. He's simply unable to drive to the hoop without getting stripped and is in general a fouling and turnover machine. Cam's shooting mechanics have regressed too and his motor seems to fluctuate wildly.

Duke: Barrett, Williamson, White, Tre
Virginia: Jerome, Hunter, Guy
Tennessee: Bone, Schofield, Williams
Gonzaga: Hachimura, Clarke, Norvell
MSU: Winston, Ward

The list goes on and on. Cam honestly shouldn't be starting above Jack White anymore.

I'm not saying he won't improve but that's where we're at right now.

Really? I'll be quoting this post in 5-6 years when Cam is dominating in the NBA, and you're gonna eat some crow. His skill level is not at all lesser than Zion or RJ. His body is not at their level right now (not even close), and he's got some mental hurdles to clear, but that dude will score points in the NBA.

[Nugget]

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/25700360/2019-nba-mock-draft-new-picks-knicks-bulls-wizards-celtics

Insider content, but I'll spoil the Duke guys. Givony has Zion #1, RJ #2, Cam #5, and Tre #22.

Givony also still has Nassir Little at #3, so Roy's going to have to work harder on his Black Falcon master plan.

[johnb]

Really? I'll be quoting this post in 5-6 years when Cam is dominating in the NBA, and you're gonna eat some crow. His skill level is not at all lesser than Zion or RJ. His body is not at their level right now (not even close), and he's got some mental hurdles to clear, but that dude will score points in the NBA.

If I'm going to eat crow, I prefer to eat it while it's hot. Happy to be corrected.

Nevertheless, if Cam is unable to effectively drive or shoot because of the presence of a couple of alpha players (while being defended by virtually no one who is going to play in the NBA and while presumably getting a bit of space because he is playing alongside the 2 best offensive players on the court), what's he going to do on an NBA team full of alphas and mega-alphas?

In the DBR link to the article about Frank Jackson and Jahlil Okafor, the writer mentions that they have combined to play in 48 games this season with 26 Coach’s Decision-Did Not Plays and eight inactive appearances. And the Pelican coach adds, "Jah has just been really solid for us. He gives us a guy to throw the ball into..." And that piece of underwhelming support is for one of our mega-alpha guys who has admittedly had a rough transition.

Ie, if I'm an NBA team looking for a shooting wing, I'd like to see some huge productivity at the college level before I drafted him in the top 5. Even Redick (who was a liability on defense but a DRAMATICALLY better shooter than Cam) took years of NBA discipline to become a top drawer contributor.

[JasonEvans]

Here is the latest NBADraft.net image from a couple days ago.

https://i.ibb.co/JvZ5XDC/Capture.png

[kAzE]

If I'm going to eat crow, I prefer to eat it while it's hot. Happy to be corrected.

Nevertheless, if Cam is unable to effectively drive or shoot because of the presence of a couple of alpha players (while being defended by virtually no one who is going to play in the NBA), what's he going to do on an NBA team full of alphas and mega-alphas?

In the DBR link to the article about Frank Jackson and Jahlil Okafor, the writer mentions that they have combined to play in 48 games this season with 26 Coach’s Decision-Did Not Plays and eight inactive appearances. And the Pelican coach adds, "Jah has just been really solid for us. He gives us a guy to throw the ball into..." And that piece of underwhelming support is for one of our mega-alpha guys who has admittedly had a rough transition.

Ie, if I'm an NBA team looking for a shooting wing, I'd like to see some huge productivity at the college level before I drafted him in the top 5. Even Redick (who was a liability on defense but a DRAMATICALLY better shooter than Cam) took years of NBA discipline to become a top drawer contributor.

The kid is 18. He's skinny as hell. He will fill out those bones with muscle, and become a very good 2-way player in the NBA. I still think Cam will be an All-Star. He has incredible potential. I think he's potentially better than Brandon Ingram, for instance. He's not quite as long as Ingram, but he's got a better frame that can put on more strength, he's a better ball handler, and he's a better shooter.

We can disagree, but I think you guys are judging him waaaaaay too early. He's gonna be later bloomer than RJ or Zion, but his ceiling is just as high as those guys. Comparing him to Okafor makes no sense, though. Nobody wants a post scorer who can't defend or rebound. EVERYONE wants a 2-way wing who can hit 3s and create his own shot.

[arnie]

Givony also still has Nassir Little at #3, so Roy's going to have to work harder on his Black Falcon master plan.

Look at post #110. Nassir is dropping fast. Roy’s a lot smarter than he looks.

[DukeTrinity11]

The kid is 18. He's skinny as hell. He will fill out those bones with muscle, and become a very good 2-way player in the NBA. I still think Cam will be an All-Star. He has incredible potential. I think he's potentially better than Brandon Ingram, for instance. He's not quite as long as Ingram, but he's got a better frame that can put on more strength, he's a better ball handler, and he's a better shooter.

We can disagree, but I think you guys are judging him waaaaaay too early. He's gonna be later bloomer than RJ or Zion, but his ceiling is just as high as those guys. Comparing him to Okafor makes no sense, though. Nobody wants a post scorer who can't defend or rebound. EVERYONE wants a 2-way wing who can hit 3s and create his own shot.

You realize how hard it is to make an All-Star team in the NBA right? Duke has only had 4 NBA All-Stars this century in Brand, Boozer, Deng and Irving while we've produced countless of other lottery picks this century including Battier, Williams, Redick, Shelden Henderson, Rivers, Jabari, Winslow, Parker, Ingram, Tatum, Carter, Bagley, etc. etc.

I'd say there's a >50% Zion is an All-Star, <50% for Barrett and less than 10% for Reddish. I know that's hard to accept but the NBA is full of dudes who dominated college and only a select few of them ever become All-Stars.

This draft is awful by the way outside of Zion and RJ. I'm sure there'll be some random players who way outplay their draft ranking but its a complete guess as to what they"ll end up being.

[English]

Look at post #110. Nassir is dropping fast. Roy’s a lot smarter than he looks.

NBADraft.net is not the industry standard mock to cite, and I think it's a bit misleading to use it as THE barometer for where these guys are projected. Givony and Schmitz, for ESPN, do a solid job and the composite gives a better sense of where players are trending. I suspect Jason is using the NBADraft.net, despite it's many shortcomings and inaccuracies, because it's a free site.

Anywho, if I'm a Knicks fan and end up with the 3rd pick, I'd be disappointed. I'd be more disappointed if I ended up with Nas Little as my team's 3rd overall pick. I'd be most disappointed if I ended up with Bol Bol as my team's 3rd overall pick. And I'd REALLY be disappointed if I were a Hawks fan and I ended up with Trae Young instead of Luka Doncic (Oh, BURN!).

[MChambers]

The kid is 18. He's skinny as hell. He will fill out those bones with muscle, and become a very good 2-way player in the NBA. I still think Cam will be an All-Star. He has incredible potential. I think he's potentially better than Brandon Ingram, for instance. He's not quite as long as Ingram, but he's got a better frame that can put on more strength, he's a better ball handler, and he's a better shooter.

We can disagree, but I think you guys are judging him waaaaaay too early. He's gonna be later bloomer than RJ or Zion, but his ceiling is just as high as those guys. Comparing him to Okafor makes no sense, though. Nobody wants a post scorer who can't defend or rebound. EVERYONE wants a 2-way wing who can hit 3s and create his own shot.

Minor correction: According to Duke, Cam turned 19 in September, so he’s older than Zion and RJ.

[kAzE]

You realize how hard it is to make an All-Star team in the NBA right? Duke has only had 4 NBA All-Stars this century in Brand, Boozer, Deng and Irving while we've produced countless of other lottery picks this century including Battier, Williams, Redick, Shelden Henderson, Rivers, Jabari, Winslow, Parker, Ingram, Tatum, Carter, Bagley, etc. etc.

I'd say there's a >50% Zion is an All-Star, <50% for Barrett and less than 10% for Reddish. I know that's hard to accept but the NBA is full of dudes who dominated college and only a select few of them ever become All-Stars.

This draft is awful by the way outside of Zion and RJ. I'm sure there'll be some random players who way outplay their draft ranking but its a complete guess as to what they"ll end up being.

Yeah, I don't see anything wrong with saying it's my opinion that Cam will become an All-Star one day. If I'm right, and he's better than Brandon Ingram, he's certainly good enough to make the All-Star team. I could certainly also be wrong. I'd do a pie bet, but it's gonna take awhile to see this one through.

So what's your point in listing all those names? You're sort of defeating your own point. Duke actually produces a ton of NBA all-stars. Like you said, we have 4 all stars in the past 18 years. We had 4 more: Grant Hill, Christian Laettner, Jack Marin, and Jeff Mullins prior to that. All those other guys are potential all-stars. We've only gotten more talented players since then. Jay Will should have been one. Ingram, Tatum, Carter, and Bagley could all become one. Based on their pedigree, Cam, Zion, and RJ are all good to decent bets to become all-stars. These guys are all under the age of 22 and are crazy talented. I'm not betting against any of them to make at least 1 all star team in their careers. Tatum might be a lock as soon as next season.

You do realize this is the best recruiting class of all time, right? Cam would have been the #1 ranked recruit in most years. In fact, (and correct me if I'm wrong) I believe he was the #1 recruit before RJ Barrett reclassified to the class of 2018. A 14-game game sample size does not close the book on Cam's career.

I guarantee you at least 4 all-stars are in this draft. I know for sure your prediction that there's nobody outside of RJ and Zion in this draft is dead wrong. 4 all-stars is a mediocre draft. Some drafts have way more than that. This one is one of the best in awhile.

[IrishDevil]

I heard Jay-will mention this during the Wake game and it made a certain degree of sense to me. I agree with the previous posters that Cam seems engaged and active, despite the rep he came into college with as one who takes possessions off plays with inconsistent effort. It is possible that K, as he has done with players with similar reps in the past, has succeeded in helping Cam see the need to play with consistently high effort, but that Cam is unused to doing so. The discomfort in ball handling, e.g., looking down, taking steps or other turnovers, and difficulty in finding rhythm in his shot could stem from the change of pace in Cam's play due simply to giving a consciously higher effort more consistently through the game. If so, I look forward to seeing if he achieves a greater comfort with a higher pace of play and can start performing like the multi-skilled phenom most expected him to be in college and fulfill the promise of the potential scouts had seen in him earlier.


You realize how hard it is to make an All-Star team in the NBA right? Duke has only had 4 NBA All-Stars this century in Brand, Boozer, Deng and Irving while we've produced countless of other lottery picks this century including Battier, Williams, Redick, Shelden Henderson, Rivers, Jabari, Winslow, Parker, Ingram, Tatum, Carter, Bagley, etc. etc.

This is off-topic, and I realize that this is just a missed-comma typo, but this post caused me to stop for a second to consider what it would be like to try to get a shot off in the lane over Shelden Henderson. Good gravy, a Landlord indeed.

[JNort]

Yeah the ones giving Cam a hard time I have trouble taking serious. Players go through slumps and Cam has flashed frequently but yet to put it all together. Once he learns his role he will be fine.

[sagegrouse]

You realize how hard it is to make an All-Star team in the NBA right? Duke has only had 4 NBA All-Stars this century in Brand, Boozer, Deng and Irving while we've produced countless of other lottery picks this century including Battier, Williams, Redick, Shelden Henderson, Rivers, Jabari, Winslow, Parker, Ingram, Tatum, Carter, Bagley, etc. etc.

I'd say there's a >50% Zion is an All-Star, <50% for Barrett and less than 10% for Reddish. I know that's hard to accept but the NBA is full of dudes who dominated college and only a select few of them ever become All-Stars.

This draft is awful by the way outside of Zion and RJ. I'm sure there'll be some random players who way outplay their draft ranking but its a complete guess as to what they"ll end up being.

Grant Hill was an NBA Al-Star in 1999-2000 (starter), 2000-01 (didn't play), and 2004-05 (starter).

[JNort]

If I'm going to eat crow, I prefer to eat it while it's hot. Happy to be corrected.

Nevertheless, if Cam is unable to effectively drive or shoot because of the presence of a couple of alpha players (while being defended by virtually no one who is going to play in the NBA and while presumably getting a bit of space because he is playing alongside the 2 best offensive players on the court), what's he going to do on an NBA team full of alphas and mega-alphas?

In the DBR link to the article about Frank Jackson and Jahlil Okafor, the writer mentions that they have combined to play in 48 games this season with 26 Coach’s Decision-Did Not Plays and eight inactive appearances. And the Pelican coach adds, "Jah has just been really solid for us. He gives us a guy to throw the ball into..." And that piece of underwhelming support is for one of our mega-alpha guys who has admittedly had a rough transition.

Ie, if I'm an NBA team looking for a shooting wing, I'd like to see some huge productivity at the college level before I drafted him in the top 5. Even Redick (who was a liability on defense but a DRAMATICALLY better shooter than Cam) took years of NBA discipline to become a top drawer contributor.
To be fair Frank has dealt with injuries. I still think he may end up the steal of that draft (or one of the bigger ones anyway). I haven't gotten over the Hornets trading him still.

[Steven43]

I agree with the point, but supposedly FT percentage is the better indicator, not 3P percentage.


Harrison Barnes seems a decent comparison for Cam.
You know, for a time I too was thinking Black Pigeon as a Cam comparison. However, I think Barnes’s stats were better than what Cam has thus far put up. And he (Barnes) just seemed much more confident than Cam, like he really believed his high school ranking to be accurate. Cam doesn’t seem to believe his.

[Steven43]

Yep. And his ceiling on the offensive end is Kevin Durant. Cam could be a steal at pick #3.

I’m going to pretend I didn’t read this.

Okay okay, I’m being a jerk. Sarcasm aside, do you honestly see Texas freshman Kevin Durant in Cam Reddish?

[subzero02]

I’m going to pretend I didn’t read this.

Okay okay, I’m being a jerk. Sarcasm aside, do you honestly see Texas freshman Kevin Durant in Cam Reddish?

I think Cam still has a chance to be the best NBA player amongst our current players but I don't see the Durant comparison. KD was an incredible rebounder on the collegiate level; he averaged 11.1 rpg and iirc, he had more than one 20 rebound game( I know he had at least 1)

[arnie]

To be fair Frank has dealt with injuries. I still think he may end up the steal of that draft (or one of the bigger ones anyway). I haven't gotten over the Hornets trading him still.

Interesting timing for this post. Frank Jackson had 19 points on 5 FG attempts last night. Nearly perfect from field and line with 4-4 3pointers. His best NBA game.

[Troublemaker]

Who we need as recruits is predicated on who leaves for the NBA draft or who graduates. Clearly Zion and RJ are special players and will go high in the draft, even though neither has an NBA outside shot and both are just so so at the FT line.

So, who among the others is a likely high NBA prospect as we are around the half season mark and we are getting to know our players.

Cam Reddish comes to mind as he has NBA size and athleticism. So far his defense and rebounding have been good but his outside shot has been inconsistent and he is turnover prone when going to the basket. There are many players in his size range that are having better seasons, DeAndre Hunter, Phil Cofer and Rui Hachimura to name a few, and they will likely push Cam down to the second round unless his second half gets a lot better. Should Cam look for a second season with Duke? I think so.

Tre Jones is a uniquely gifted player with a special defensive game and on floor leadership. He is 6'2" and his outside shot is not that great. I am of the school that believes great shooters are born and may develop to some degree but not to the premier level. Against the bigger and more active defenses he had trouble getting his shot to fall when going to the rim. I wonder if he will go in the draft and if so, at what point in the draft?

I think Jack is a nice college player but not big enough or quick enough to make an NBA roster and Javin has some of the physical characteristics but is not playing at a level to get serious consideration in any draft. Marques has the size and length to play in the NBA but is neither a scoring threat nor a strong rebounder. He might get picked up late in the draft and his status probably won't increase with another year of play. So does he stay and get his degree rather than play in the D or G leagues?

The only other player who has good size and quickness to fit the shooting guard spot in the nBA is AOC. He just has not shown the court awareness to even play well at the college level to date. No chance of him making an NBA roster after this season, but maybe with 15 pounds and him finally gaining confidence he might make the jum.

In my opinion, only two players from this team should depart for the NBA this year, although Tre may feel he won't make a significant improvement by staying another year. Wonder if coach K thinks he is getting Cam and Tre back for another season?

Yeah, that's not happening. I could see Cam slipping in the draft but not out of the first round, haha.

We can make a bet on this if you desire.

[brevity]

The subject of Ja Morant came up in the UVA postgame thread, and I made a post here (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43036-MBB-Duke-72-UVA-70-Post-Game-Thread&p=1119149#post1119149) that included a highlight video and the following bit of info:


Ja Morant and Zion Williamson were AAU teammates, and both played high school ball in South Carolina.

CBS Sports has an article (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/court-report-the-real-story-of-ja-morant-zion-williamson-playing-on-the-same-aau-team/) explaining the circumstances a little bit more (short version: it was one summer, before Ja was a HS sophomore and Zion was a 6'3" HS freshman) and detailing the unlikely way in which Murray State discovered him.

This seemed the best thread to post the link, as Ja Morant moved up to #2 last week at NBADraft.net (https://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft), the leading authority in easily accessible, non-paywall mock drafting.

[pfrduke]

The subject of Ja Morant came up in the UVA postgame thread, and I made a post here (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43036-MBB-Duke-72-UVA-70-Post-Game-Thread&p=1119149#post1119149) that included a highlight video and the following bit of info:



CBS Sports has an article (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/court-report-the-real-story-of-ja-morant-zion-williamson-playing-on-the-same-aau-team/) explaining the circumstances a little bit more (short version: it was one summer, before Ja was a HS sophomore and Zion was a 6'3" HS freshman) and detailing the unlikely way in which Murray State discovered him.

This seemed the best thread to post the link, as Ja Morant moved up to #2 last week at NBADraft.net (https://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft), the leading authority in easily accessible, non-paywall mock drafting.

Without disagreeing with your last statement, I certainly don’t take NBADraft.net as the most reliable source, but note with some interest that they have Tre Jones going #24..... in the 2020 draft. An interesting prediction, at the very least.

[JasonEvans]

Seems like a good time for another update:
https://i.ibb.co/ssFhppw/Capture.png

Some things to note:
* As others mentioned, Tre has moved from their 2019 mock (#29) to their 2020 mock draft. Bolden, who was showing up in 2019 and 2020 mocks in the past, is now in neither.
* Naz Reid of LSU went from #16 in the last mock to #32... a move that takes him from being in the lottery conversation to not even in the first round. I saw Reid play at the McD practices a year ago and was really impressed. I checked and nothing about his play lately would indicate some reason for his stock suddenly plummeting. This lends credence to the notion that NBADraft.net (and others) are still sorta just guessing at things
* Va Techs Nickeil Alexander-Walker is all the way up to #7 in this latest mock. Whew, that is heady territory for him. I've obviously seen him play a bit and color me less than convinced that he is NBA impact player kinda good.
* Cam seems to be holding steady in the middle of the lottery while Nassir Little seems to be holding steady in the late lottery. If Little keeps playing the way he played against VT, his stock will shoot back up.
* I have no problem with Ja Morant ahead of RJ right now. I think RJ is more of sure thing but Ja may have a higher ceiling. If you tell me you project Ja to be somewhat similar to Russell Westbrook in 5 or so years, I won't dispute that too vociferously.
* Darius Garland has officially declared for the draft and seems like a mid-first rounder. I really feel for Vandy only getting 4 games out of him. I think he could have been a really special one. If I had a pick in the mid-teens, I would jump all over him (assuming his knee is 100%).

-Jason "I'm not going to raise my hopes that Tre is coming back... I'm not... stop it... ... ... please" Evans

[UrinalCake]

Wonder if Tre’s injury has anything to do with him being moved to 2020? This particular draft board tends to fluctuate more quickly based on recent trends, and represents more of a “if the draft were held today” snapshot rather than a projection towards the actual draft. I’m not getting my hopes up though, I still expect Jones to leave this year.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Wonder if Tre’s injury has anything to do with him being moved to 2020? This particular draft board tends to fluctuate more quickly based on recent trends. I’m not getting my hopes up though, I still expect Jones to leave this year.

Here's the dynamic I'm not seeing discussed a lot...and that is the log jam of players who want to go pro and who are, or will be, good enough....there's still only so many slots on these rosters, and the older players are extending their careers by the advances in nutrition and training - plus a lot of them develop the trey at later ages too which extends their NBA careers.

For some reason this is lost on people like Gary Trent's dad and others.

So the G league (or foreign leagues) for pay, largely playing to small audiences - versus the intoxication, exposure, etc of big time college ball for maybe an extra year - will have to enter the calculations these guys (and their parents) make. I don't think there should be a rule against signing out of high school, but I think there's a fair amount of delusion going around, and a lack of understanding that the talent pool is growing much faster than the available jobs.

Now, does this apply to Tre? I've no idea. But I do know that Tre will have to improve his TREY if he is to play meaningful NBA minutes. Guards simply must be able to do that now.

[Saratoga2]

Yeah, that's not happening. I could see Cam slipping in the draft but not out of the first round, haha.

We can make a bet on this if you desire.

No bet, but seriously, do you think Cam's play so far at the college level is superior to any of the three I mentioned? I could also have listed others. If the draft picks solely on what the NBA sees as potential, maybe he goes higher.

[budwom]

No bet, but seriously, do you think Cam's play so far at the college level is superior to any of the three I mentioned? I could also have listed others. If the draft picks solely on what the NBA sees as potential, maybe he goes higher.

I'm absolutely fine with where we are right now, but have to agree that at this point, Cam needs to up his game a bit to stay as a top six pick, right? Improve the handle, continue shooting better...I think that will happen.

[jv001]

I'm with S2 and budwom on this one. I'm not an NBA expert by any means but two of the things the NBA expects from SGs/SF is to be able to shoot and handle the ball. So far Cam has not done either one on a consistent basis. I think his shooting will come around but his handle may not. I sure hope it does but as fast as the season goes by, he must begin to improve in both areas. The young man can play some defense though. GoDuke!

[JasonEvans]

I'm with S2 and budwom on this one. I'm not an NBA expert by any means but two of the things the NBA expects from SGs/SF is to be able to shoot and handle the ball. So far Cam has not done either one on a consistent basis. I think his shooting will come around but his handle may not. I sure hope it does but as fast as the season goes by, he must begin to improve in both areas. The young man can play some defense though. GoDuke!

Folks, Cam Reddish is a lottery pick. Period, end of conversation. There can be some debate about where he goes in the lottery and what he needs to work on to become a successful pro, but it would take something almost unfathomable for him not to be one of the first 14 picks in the draft. If anyone disagrees with that, I would be happy to make a wager.

[jv001]

Folks, Cam Reddish is a lottery pick. Period, end of conversation. There can be some debate about where he goes in the lottery and what he needs to work on to become a successful pro, but it would take something almost unfathomable for him not to be one of the first 14 picks in the draft. If anyone disagrees with that, I would be happy to make a wager.

No wager from this old Duke fan. I don't bet and if I did, I wouldn't root against a Duke player just to win a pie. :cool: GoDuke!

And I agree that Cam will be a lottery pick because of his potential. Now GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

No bet, but seriously, do you think Cam's play so far at the college level is superior to any of the three I mentioned? I could also have listed others. If the draft picks solely on what the NBA sees as potential, maybe he goes higher.

Cam has struggled mightily on offense, and I have been critical of him in other threads.

My only point is that you are wrong for predicting that he'd be a second-round draft pick. I think the floor is mid first round.

[UrinalCake]

Hate to stir the pot but last year we all came into the season assuming Duval was a top-10 pick, and even while he struggled through the year it was still unfathomable that he would fall out of the lottery just based on his “potential” in terms of his freakish size and athleticism. So anything can happen. Not saying I expect it for Cam, but at some point his high school ranking starts to mean less and his actual production starts to mean more.

[Troublemaker]

Hate to stir the pot but last year we all came into the season assuming Duval was a top-10 pick, and even while he struggled through the year it was still unfathomable that he would fall out of the lottery just based on his “potential” in terms of his freakish size and athleticism. So anything can happen. Not saying I expect it for Cam, but at some point his high school ranking starts to mean less and his actual production starts to mean more.

Nah, I remember that it was pretty much consensus by the end of the season that Trevon was going to be a second-rounder. We were still wrong, of course.

[brlftz]

Given the reality of Cam’s performance this year, I think the burden is now on the “no way he falls out of the lottery” crowd to explain why.

[UrinalCake]

Nah, I remember that it was pretty much consensus by the end of the season that Trevon was going to be a second-rounder. We were still wrong, of course.

By the end of the season yes. But by January, i.e. where we are now? He was still a lock for the lottery. My point is that things can change over the course of a season.

[Troublemaker]

By the end of the season yes. But by January, i.e. where we are now? He was still a lock for the lottery. My point is that things can change over the course of a season.

Was he though? I think as a forum we lost confidence in him quicker than that, which precipitated a bunch of Trevon-defenders to pop up but they ultimately overreached / overcompensated in their defense of him.

I mean, this is inexact, using your memory and mine. But I think by January, we were thinking late first-round, by March, second-round, and by the end of the draft, obviously we understood that we had watched an undrafted player.

[jimsumner]

No bet, but seriously, do you think Cam's play so far at the college level is superior to any of the three I mentioned? I could also have listed others. If the draft picks solely on what the NBA sees as potential, maybe he goes higher.

If?

The NBA absolutely drafts on potential. This isn't even debatable. NBA folks love Reddish's potential. Not like. Love.

I know. I've talked to some of them. The idea that Reddish might drop into the second round is just ludicrous. As is the idea that he would benefit from coming back to Duke for a second season.

[Troublemaker]

Given the reality of Cam’s performance this year, I think the burden is now on the “no way he falls out of the lottery” crowd to explain why.

Combination of (a) weaker/shallower draft than 2018, (b) wing scarcity in the NBA, and (c) Cam having shown two-way potential. He's a good defender and has shown enough potential with his shot, even though we'd like him to shoot a higher pct.

This is just way different from the Duval situation.

[Furniture]

Hate to stir the pot but last year we all came into the season assuming Duval was a top-10 pick, and even while he struggled through the year it was still unfathomable that he would fall out of the lottery just based on his “potential” in terms of his freakish size and athleticism. So anything can happen. Not saying I expect it for Cam, but at some point his high school ranking starts to mean less and his actual production starts to mean more.
Duval fell out of the lottery because NBA scouts read this forum. That is the only sensible reason.

[Rich]

Duval fell out of the lottery because NBA scouts read this forum. That is the only sensible reason.

Are you implying it's NOT sensible to think every other poster except you is an NBA scout who writes on this forum and is trying to trick all of the other NBA scouts who write on this forum into taking Tre earlier in the draft by saying there's no way he falls outside of the first round?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

By the end of the season yes. But by January, i.e. where we are now? He was still a lock for the lottery. My point is that things can change over the course of a season.

There's that word again, "lock."

*deep breath*

[budwom]

Folks, Cam Reddish is a lottery pick. Period, end of conversation. There can be some debate about where he goes in the lottery and what he needs to work on to become a successful pro, but it would take something almost unfathomable for him not to be one of the first 14 picks in the draft. If anyone disagrees with that, I would be happy to make a wager.

Just for the record, I never argued he was falling out of the lottery, but go ahead and argue anyway. I did say he needs to up his game to remain a top six pick. Want to wager on what I actually said?

[jimsumner]

Just for the record, I never argued he was falling out of the lottery, but go ahead and argue anyway. I did say he needs to up his game to remain a top six pick. Want to wager on what I actually said?

It was another poster who was arguing that Reddish could fall into the second round.

[kAzE]

I'm sticking to my guns. Cam Reddish will be an NBA All-Star someday. Probably not a 10-time all-star or hall of famer, but he's got everything a player needs to average 20 points in the NBA, and he plays both ends.

Probably a flaming hot take in light of his performance over this recent stretch. But I just think his skill level is absolutely great, and he will get so much stronger. He needs to be locked in a weight room every off season until he's 230 pounds. I believe the guy is special.

This article is from a month ago, but lays out a good case for why Cam can and should be a top 5 pick: https://www.theringer.com/college-basketball/2018/12/28/18158180/cam-reddish-duke-nba-draft

[brlftz]

Combination of (a) weaker/shallower draft than 2018, (b) wing scarcity in the NBA, and (c) Cam having shown two-way potential. He's a good defender and has shown enough potential with his shot, even though we'd like him to shoot a higher pct.

This is just way different from the Duval situation.

My feeling is that if current performance were to continue, it would call into question point (c). As of right now he's a 36% shooter with 3.4 rebounds per game, and he hasn't shown he can drive to the basket against college players without frequently turning the ball over. We like his defense, but he's only third on the team in steals and tied for fifth on blocks. He's shooting 34% from the college 3 line, not great if that's supposed to be one of your main differentiators. We're all thinking he can do tons better and that at some point it'll click, but if it never does and you're a GM, do you still have confidence that it'll click in the NBA?

I believe in his potential, and I believe it WILL click for him. But if it never does, I don't think you can say he's still a lock for the lottery.

[sagegrouse]

Here's the dynamic I'm not seeing discussed a lot...and that is the log jam of players who want to go pro and who are, or will be, good enough...there's still only so many slots on these rosters, and the older players are extending their careers by the advances in nutrition and training - plus a lot of them develop the trey at later ages too which extends their NBA careers.

For some reason this is lost on people like Gary Trent's dad and others.

So the G league (or foreign leagues) for pay, largely playing to small audiences - versus the intoxication, exposure, etc of big time college ball for maybe an extra year - will have to enter the calculations these guys (and their parents) make. I don't think there should be a rule against signing out of high school, but I think there's a fair amount of delusion going around, and a lack of understanding that the talent pool is growing much faster than the available jobs.

Now, does this apply to Tre? I've no idea. But I do know that Tre will have to improve his TREY if he is to play meaningful NBA minutes. Guards simply must be able to do that now.

This is more a question than a comment. In the NBA minimum salaries progress from $838,000 as a rookie in 2018-19 to $1,349,000 as a second year player to $2,394,000 after ten years. Do the higher salaries for older players discourage longer careers? Or, are longer careers the province of stars who make far more than the minimum -- therefore, being largely irrelevant?

[sagegrouse]

Was he though? I think as a forum we lost confidence in him quicker than that, which precipitated a bunch of Trevon-defenders to pop up but they ultimately overreached / overcompensated in their defense of him.

I mean, this is inexact, using your memory and mine. But I think by January, we were thinking late first-round, by March, second-round, and by the end of the draft, obviously we understood that we had watched an undrafted player.

Perhaps alone on this thread, I thought Trevon Duval made enormous strides during the season both in team and individual play. I was personally surprised he wasn't more highly thought of by NBA GM's and Scouts. I was only sorta surprised that he left when the hand-writing was on the wall that he would be an undrafted free agent. "Sorta," because he never seemed to unpack his bags and he had the "family disease" that also infected Derryck Thornton and Gary Trent Jr.

[awhom111]

This is more a question than a comment. In the NBA minimum salaries progress from $838,000 as a rookie in 2018-19 to $1,349,000 as a second year player to $2,394,000 after ten years. Do the higher salaries for older players discourage longer careers? Or, are longer careers the province of stars who make far more than the minimum -- therefore, being largely irrelevant?

The union thought of that so they bargained for the NBA to centrally reimburse teams paying veterans the minimum to make it more like paying the minimum for a less experienced player. This has been in the news recently as people calculate just how much cash Chicago can earn by taking money from the Rockets and the NBA to trade for Carmelo Anthony then waive him.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This is more a question than a comment. In the NBA minimum salaries progress from $838,000 as a rookie in 2018-19 to $1,349,000 as a second year player to $2,394,000 after ten years. Do the higher salaries for older players discourage longer careers? Or, are longer careers the province of stars who make far more than the minimum -- therefore, being largely irrelevant?

I think the money in the NBA is such that most teams won't the best players, even if it means a few veterans at higher prices than some younger players...but I would imagine that for small market teams, they may go younger for cheaper. And yeah, the long careers of stars is one thing but I was more talking about the Lance Thomas types of the world....who is suddenly a lot harder to replace than he would have been 5-6 years ago.

I think my main point, which is that there are more good players than there are NBA jobs......is valid in the big picture.

[luburch]

The Athletic published their first mock draft today ($) - https://theathletic.com/780756/2019/01/29/vecenie-2019-mock-draft-1-0-its-zion-and-then-everyone-else/

Of note:
1. Zion
2. RJ
4. Cam
15. Tre



That is the highest I have seen Tre projected to date.

[UrinalCake]

Please don’t send Zion to Cleveland, they don’t deserve him! I’d actually love for him to go to the Knicks just from a pure entertainment/marketability standpoint. He’d be well on his way to becoming a billionaire as that recent Forbes article projected.

Little slots in at 10 on this list, which seems reasonable. I still think he may come back for another season.

[pfrduke]

Little slots in at 10 on this list, which seems reasonable. I still think he may come back for another season.

Of course you do - you have a pie on the line!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Please don’t send Zion to Cleveland, they don’t deserve him! I’d actually love for him to go to the Knicks just from a pure entertainment/marketability standpoint. He’d be well on his way to becoming a billionaire as that recent Forbes article projected.

Little slots in at 10 on this list, which seems reasonable. I still think he may come back for another season.

Yeah....the four most likely teams to win the lottery are Cleveland, New York, Phoenix, and Chicago, in that order.

In New York, Zion becomes king along with Aaron Judge. He'd essentially be the greatest New York treasure since Jeter and biggest NBA star since Ewing (I'm not counting Melo because Melo was traded, not drafted).

In Phoenix, Zion joins a bunch of really talented, young players and a management team that has options (Ayton, Booker, Warren, Jackson).

In Chicago, Zion becomes the biggest basketball star since Derrick Rose and joins Wendell and Markkennen to create a potentially devastating front court (back court is still a mess).

In Cleveland....oh boy...

[mr. synellinden]

Now has Ja Morant #1 ahead of Zion. That's insane (https://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft). How is Zion not going #1?

Here's an interesting question. If the NBA disbanded and a new league was forming with an open draft, who are the top 10 picks? Does Doncic get taken first or Giannis - or LeBron? I was thinking about this because I was wondering where Zion would fall in the Bill Simmons NBA trade value list today.

I think an open draft would go like this:

1. LeBron
2. Giannis
3. Doncic
4. AD
5. Harden
6. Curry
7. KD
8. Embiid
9. Kawhi
10. Simmons

I think Zion is somewhere around 30 right now.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Now has Ja Morant #1 ahead of Zion. That's insane (https://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft). How is Zion not going #1?

Here's an interesting question. If the NBA disbanded and a new league was forming with an open draft, who are the top 10 picks? Does Doncic get taken first or Giannis - or LeBron? I was thinking about this because I was wondering where Zion would fall in the Bill Simmons NBA trade value list today.

I think an open draft would go like this:

1. LeBron
2. Giannis
3. Doncic
4. AD
5. Harden
6. Curry
7. KD
8. Embiid
9. Kawhi
10. Simmons

I think Zion is somewhere around 30 right now.

NBA Draft is not accurate. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic does his homework, calls executives and scouts, breaks down game film, etc. None of the NBA people he's talked to have anyone else than Zion in that #1 spot. I am not trying to bash Morant or anything. The kid is exciting and has a world of potential. But Zion is #1 right now and it is not close. R.J. Barrett is in a tier with Morant and then there is everyone else. The thing about Barrett is that he has the potential to move up or down the boards as the season progresses because his game is going to get a huge magnifying glass from NBA people. Any struggles in the late season or tournaments is going to get a ton of press. Of course, if he plays like he did against Virginia and Florida State and last night against Notre Dame, he could solidify his spot at #2.

Your scenario is interesting. Personally, I wouldn't have LeBron #1 on my board. He's only going to stay there 4 years max and then he'll be 38 and probably want to move on to the next team. At 36, 37 years old, is his body going to allow him to compete? He's on the tail end of that aging curve. I have no idea how long that curve goes, but it is a risk you have to consider. I'd rather build my team around Giannis or AD. Doncic is too high. Does he play defense? He's in the Top 10 or 15, but not #4.

As for Zion, how far below Simmons should he be? Who do you think is more likely to develop a 3-point shot in 5 years? My money is on Zion. We know Simmons does almost everything well, but his lack of shooting is a real liability in a playoff series. If I am starting a team from nothing, I really would think long and hard about drafting Zion if the medicals check out. He's got a huge following and would be easy to market. He can switch onto a number of players on defense. His potential is incredible and there's hope he develops a consistent 3 and pull-up jumper.

[JasonEvans]

the four most likely teams to win the lottery are Cleveland, New York, Phoenix, and Chicago, in that order.

To be clear, the three worst records have an equal chance of landing the top pick. The bottom three teams all get the exact same number of balls in the bin for the lottery so they have equal shots at picks #1, #2, #3, and #4 (the lottery is now for the top 4 picks, not top 3).

[mr. synellinden]

NBA Draft is not accurate. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic does his homework, calls executives and scouts, breaks down game film, etc. None of the NBA people he's talked to have anyone else than Zion in that #1 spot. I am not trying to bash Morant or anything. The kid is exciting and has a world of potential. But Zion is #1 right now and it is not close. R.J. Barrett is in a tier with Morant and then there is everyone else. The thing about Barrett is that he has the potential to move up or down the boards as the season progresses because his game is going to get a huge magnifying glass from NBA people. Any struggles in the late season or tournaments is going to get a ton of press. Of course, if he plays like he did against Virginia and Florida State and last night against Notre Dame, he could solidify his spot at #2.

Your scenario is interesting. Personally, I wouldn't have LeBron #1 on my board. He's only going to stay there 4 years max and then he'll be 38 and probably want to move on to the next team. At 36, 37 years old, is his body going to allow him to compete? He's on the tail end of that aging curve. I have no idea how long that curve goes, but it is a risk you have to consider. I'd rather build my team around Giannis or AD. Doncic is too high. Does he play defense? He's in the Top 10 or 15, but not #4.

As for Zion, how far below Simmons should he be? Who do you think is more likely to develop a 3-point shot in 5 years? My money is on Zion. We know Simmons does almost everything well, but his lack of shooting is a real liability in a playoff series. If I am starting a team from nothing, I really would think long and hard about drafting Zion if the medicals check out. He's got a huge following and would be easy to market. He can switch onto a number of players on defense. His potential is incredible and there's hope he develops a consistent 3 and pull-up jumper.

Yeah - that was my point about NBADraft.net. If they have Morant number 1 right now, how serious can we really take it?

Your comments are good ones. With LeBron, the question is do you want to to guarantee 4-5 years of one of the best players ever (is this injury a sign of more breaking down to come?) or 10-12 of Giannis or Embiid or Simmons, or 8-10 of AD (who hasn't been able to win anything yet)?

I disagree on Doncic - he's 19 and doing things that have never been done. He'll learn how to play defense. There are a lot of examples of young stars who were accused of not playing defense and then learned it in the league. KD comes to mind.

And when I first wrote out the top 10, I put "Zion?"next to Simmons name, but then you look at who's in the group between 10 and 30 and you realize it's tough. Would you really draft Zion today ahead of guys like Porzingis, Towns, Kyrie, Lillard, George, Fox? Maybe. It's an interesting question.

[UrinalCake]

Your comments are good ones. With LeBron, the question is do you want to to guarantee 4-5 years of one of the best players ever (is this injury a sign of more breaking down to come?) or 10-12 of Giannis or Embiid or Simmons, or 8-10 of AD (who hasn't been able to win anything yet)?

The other issue with LeBron is that he won’t allow you develop any of your other players, and may even cause them to leave.

As for Morant, I suspect that NBADraft.net is trying to capitalize on the hype that he’s been receiving. Exciting player, maybe a top-5 pick, but nobody’s in Zion’s stratosphere right now.

[Troublemaker]

The Athletic published their first mock draft today ($) - https://theathletic.com/780756/2019/01/29/vecenie-2019-mock-draft-1-0-its-zion-and-then-everyone-else/

Of note:
1. Zion
2. RJ
4. Cam
15. Tre



That is the highest I have seen Tre projected to date.


Please don’t send Zion to Cleveland, they don’t deserve him! I’d actually love for him to go to the Knicks just from a pure entertainment/marketability standpoint. He’d be well on his way to becoming a billionaire as that recent Forbes article projected.

Little slots in at 10 on this list, which seems reasonable. I still think he may come back for another season.

Does Vecenie list Coby White? Pretty annoying if UNC keeps even just him. If Coby White played for Duke, he'd be gone for sure.

[tbyers11]

Does Vecenie list Coby White? Pretty annoying if UNC keeps even just him. If Coby White played for Duke, he'd be gone for sure.

He has Coby White going #25 to the 76ers

[DavidBenAkiva]

He has Coby White going #25 to the 76ers

I am practically salivating at the prospects of UNC continuing its up and down season, Little and White playing their way into the 1st round, losing in the ACC Semis and the Sweet 16, and then losing all of Maye, Johnson, Williams, Little, and White and also whiffing on Cole Anthony.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Evan Daniels from 247Sports talked to several NBA Scouts about the top of the draft (https://247sports.com/Article/Zion-Williamson-NBA-Draft-RJ-Barrett-Ja-Morant-129288889/).

It's unanimous that Zion will go #1. He is, as a scout put it, "alien good." There are only two other players that are comparable as physical outliers in the NBA - LeBron and Giannis. The more interesting question is about who goes #2 with R.J. Barrett, Ja Morant, and Cameron Reddish in contention. There's a lot of praise for Barrett, who some say will be an even better NBA player than college.

[CDu]

I am practically salivating at the prospects of UNC continuing its up and down season, Little and White playing their way into the 1st round, losing in the ACC Semis and the Sweet 16, and then losing all of Maye, Johnson, Williams, Little, and White and also whiffing on Cole Anthony.

My guess is that they'll lose all the guys you mentioned. But they'll add Cole Anthony once White declares, and they'll add a top-tier grad transfer or two. And they'll be a really good team again next year led by Anthony, Bacot, (insert names of a grad transfer or two), and Black, and role players like Brooks, Manley, Huffman, Woods, etc. And will again be a borderline top-10 team.

[DavidBenAkiva]

My guess is that they'll lose all the guys you mentioned. But they'll add Cole Anthony once White declares, and they'll add a top-tier grad transfer or two. And they'll be a really good team again next year led by Anthony, Bacot, (insert names of a grad transfer or two), and Black, and role players like Brooks, Manley, Huffman, Woods, etc. And will again be a borderline top-10 team.

You and your pragmatic takes... I shake my fist at your rational observations!

[CDu]

You and your pragmatic takes... I shake my fist at your rational observations!

Sometimes I hate myself. ;)

[beach rev]

Interesting read on draft prospects for Zion, Rj, Cam and Tre:

https://www.si.com/nba/2019/02/25/nba-draft-2019-duke-zion-williamson-injury-rj-barrett-cam-reddish-tre-jones

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sam Vecenie of the Athletic, a writer that I enjoy reading, has been doing an interesting bit on players from high major teams. He's gone around to coaches and asked them to provide a scouting report of their top draft picks. He started with Duke and Kentucky. In short, the coaches are pretty much in agreement about Zion, R.J., and Cam with some questions about Tre Jones as a prospect on account of his shooting. Nothing new there. Vecenie, for what its worth, projects the first 3 to go in the top 5 and thinks Tre is more like a 20-30 range draft prospect at this point and might benefit form coming back for another year to prove he can develop his jumper. The effusive praise for Tre on defense was fun to read.

For UK, it's clear that PJ Washington is a 1st rounder this year and has been doing incredibly well in conference play. Keldon Johnson is also a mid-1st rounder with some more mixed reviews. He sees Ashton Hagans as a player in the late 1st to mid-2nd round. Like Jones, Hagans is a real bear on defense. He does not get as high marks running the point or doing much of anything on offense. Vecenie thinks a year back in college, improving on the offensive side of the ball could really help Hagans. The free throw shooting is better than Jones, but the 3-point shooting has been below 20%. The FT% makes you think there is untapped potential. And Tyler Herro gets some focus, too. He's a bit of a wild card as he shoots the ball well but hasn't been the lights out shooter many thought he would be. But a lot of other things are there and a team might think he develops into a good bench or even rotation scoring guard, even if he can only defend other 2s in the NBA.

Today, Vecenie took a look at UNC. The highlights are... interesting. Nearly everyone that scouted Coby White had universally glowing reviews. Nassir Little, on the other hand, had some hot takes.

Here's one coach (Vecenie posted this passage on twitter, so I feel comfortable sharing this excerpt from behind a paywall):


Hate him (as a player). Absolutely hate him. I think he’s a terrible player. I don’t care that he made a couple of 3s against Virginia Tech because everyone was feeling good. I hate him. I think he’s a bad player. I watched him play like crazy. I did see the McDonald’s and Jordan games. That’s great, he played harder than people in those settings, and people fell in love with that. The practice settings, he was competitive. But I see a guy who has no idea what he’s doing.

And another coach had this to say:

So my take on Nassir is that he’s going to be a lottery pick and he deserves to be that, top-five in the draft type. Just because of his potential and his work-ethic. He’s 6-7 on the wing, and I think he’s going to get better. His shot has changed a little bit since high school. It’s definitely more on the side of his head a little bit. I don’t know why. But I still really like him. I know he hasn’t had the year people thought, but I don’t think teams are changing their opinion on him because of his body of work.

[jv001]

Sam Vecenie of the Athletic, a writer that I enjoy reading, has been doing an interesting bit on players from high major teams. He's gone around to coaches and asked them to provide a scouting report of their top draft picks. He started with Duke and Kentucky. In short, the coaches are pretty much in agreement about Zion, R.J., and Cam with some questions about Tre Jones as a prospect on account of his shooting. Nothing new there. Vecenie, for what its worth, projects the first 3 to go in the top 5 and thinks Tre is more like a 20-30 range draft prospect at this point and might benefit form coming back for another year to prove he can develop his jumper. The effusive praise for Tre on defense was fun to read.

For UK, it's clear that PJ Washington is a 1st rounder this year and has been doing incredibly well in conference play. Keldon Johnson is also a mid-1st rounder with some more mixed reviews. He sees Ashton Hagans as a player in the late 1st to mid-2nd round. Like Jones, Hagans is a real bear on defense. He does not get as high marks running the point or doing much of anything on offense. Vecenie thinks a year back in college, improving on the offensive side of the ball could really help Hagans. The free throw shooting is better than Jones, but the 3-point shooting has been below 20%. The FT% makes you think there is untapped potential. And Tyler Herro gets some focus, too. He's a bit of a wild card as he shoots the ball well but hasn't been the lights out shooter many thought he would be. But a lot of other things are there and a team might think he develops into a good bench or even rotation scoring guard, even if he can only defend other 2s in the NBA.

Today, Vecenie took a look at UNC. The highlights are... interesting. Nearly everyone that scouted Coby White had universally glowing reviews. Nassir Little, on the other hand, had some hot takes.

Here's one coach (Vecenie posted this passage on twitter, so I feel comfortable sharing this excerpt from behind a paywall):



And another coach had this to say:

One coach hates Little and another likes him. Eye of the be holder I guess. Since the cheats don't matter to me, I don't care. Thanks as always for your posts. GoDuke!

[Steven43]

Vecenie, for what its worth, projects the first 3 to go in the top 5 and thinks Tre is more like a 20-30 range draft prospect at this point and might benefit form coming back for another year to prove he can develop his jumper.
Or by coming back for another season at Duke he might prove definitively that he cannot shoot at the level needed to play in the NBA. If Tre is projected anywhere in the 1st Round he’s gone.

[AGDukesky]

Nassir apparently wizzed in that first guys Cheerios that day

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Or by coming back for another season at Duke he might prove definitively that he cannot shoot at the level needed to play in the NBA. If Tre is projected anywhere in the 1st Round he’s gone.

Yeah, it's hard to recommend someone going in the first round come back another year...due to cost/benefit analysis... That said, I think Tre might be well served long term by coming back. Of course, that's easy for me to say...bird in the hand, and all of that....

[ChillinDuke]

Sam Vecenie of the Athletic, a writer that I enjoy reading, has been doing an interesting bit on players from high major teams. He's gone around to coaches and asked them to provide a scouting report of their top draft picks. He started with Duke and Kentucky. In short, the coaches are pretty much in agreement about Zion, R.J., and Cam with some questions about Tre Jones as a prospect on account of his shooting. Nothing new there. Vecenie, for what its worth, projects the first 3 to go in the top 5 and thinks Tre is more like a 20-30 range draft prospect at this point and might benefit form coming back for another year to prove he can develop his jumper. The effusive praise for Tre on defense was fun to read.

For UK, it's clear that PJ Washington is a 1st rounder this year and has been doing incredibly well in conference play. Keldon Johnson is also a mid-1st rounder with some more mixed reviews. He sees Ashton Hagans as a player in the late 1st to mid-2nd round. Like Jones, Hagans is a real bear on defense. He does not get as high marks running the point or doing much of anything on offense. Vecenie thinks a year back in college, improving on the offensive side of the ball could really help Hagans. The free throw shooting is better than Jones, but the 3-point shooting has been below 20%. The FT% makes you think there is untapped potential. And Tyler Herro gets some focus, too. He's a bit of a wild card as he shoots the ball well but hasn't been the lights out shooter many thought he would be. But a lot of other things are there and a team might think he develops into a good bench or even rotation scoring guard, even if he can only defend other 2s in the NBA.

Today, Vecenie took a look at UNC. The highlights are... interesting. Nearly everyone that scouted Coby White had universally glowing reviews. Nassir Little, on the other hand, had some hot takes.

Here's one coach (Vecenie posted this passage on twitter, so I feel comfortable sharing this excerpt from behind a paywall):



And another coach had this to say:

Interesting stuff, thanks.

Tre Jones needs to find a jumper. And not just because I bet a pie on it. His 24.6% 3-pt shooting is a significant reason why we live in that unsettling (for this Board) region between "Top Team" and "Unbeatable".

- Chillin

ETA - raise your hand if you thought Tre would be more than 4 percentage points worse than Trevon Duval at 3pt shooting.

[robed deity]

Sam Vecenie of the Athletic, a writer that I enjoy reading, has been doing an interesting bit on players from high major teams. He's gone around to coaches and asked them to provide a scouting report of their top draft picks. He started with Duke and Kentucky. In short, the coaches are pretty much in agreement about Zion, R.J., and Cam with some questions about Tre Jones as a prospect on account of his shooting. Nothing new there. Vecenie, for what its worth, projects the first 3 to go in the top 5 and thinks Tre is more like a 20-30 range draft prospect at this point and might benefit form coming back for another year to prove he can develop his jumper. The effusive praise for Tre on defense was fun to read.

For UK, it's clear that PJ Washington is a 1st rounder this year and has been doing incredibly well in conference play. Keldon Johnson is also a mid-1st rounder with some more mixed reviews. He sees Ashton Hagans as a player in the late 1st to mid-2nd round. Like Jones, Hagans is a real bear on defense. He does not get as high marks running the point or doing much of anything on offense. Vecenie thinks a year back in college, improving on the offensive side of the ball could really help Hagans. The free throw shooting is better than Jones, but the 3-point shooting has been below 20%. The FT% makes you think there is untapped potential. And Tyler Herro gets some focus, too. He's a bit of a wild card as he shoots the ball well but hasn't been the lights out shooter many thought he would be. But a lot of other things are there and a team might think he develops into a good bench or even rotation scoring guard, even if he can only defend other 2s in the NBA.

Today, Vecenie took a look at UNC. The highlights are... interesting. Nearly everyone that scouted Coby White had universally glowing reviews. Nassir Little, on the other hand, had some hot takes.

Here's one coach (Vecenie posted this passage on twitter, so I feel comfortable sharing this excerpt from behind a paywall):



And another coach had this to say:

Wait, so the first coach isn't a fan of Little?

Ha but seriously, that is one of the more harsh player reviews I've read. I know it wasn't him, hut for some reason, I had Dan Dakich's voice in my head.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Wait, so the first coach isn't a fan of Little?

Ha but seriously, that is one of the more harsh player reviews I've read. I know it wasn't him, hut for some reason, I had Dan Dakich's voice in my head.

If you go to the full article, there are some other choice criticisms. My favorite was something like 'UNC has been running the secondary break for 45 years and we are 20, 25 games into the season and Little has no idea what to do. That would scare the hell out of me.'

[UrinalCake]

Little: the media needs to give UNC more coverage!

The Media: Nassir Little is awful

Little: uhh, never mind!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Interesting stuff, thanks.

Tre Jones needs to find a jumper. And not just because I bet a pie on it. His 24.6% 3-pt shooting is a significant reason why we live in that unsettling (for this Board) region between "Top Team" and "Unbeatable".

- Chillin

ETA - raise your hand if you thought Tre would be more than 4 percentage points worse than Trevon Duval at 3pt shooting.

I remember folks singing Tre's shooting skills. Not that he would be an elite shooter, but that he'd at least be better than Duval.

Now, I'm not arguing Duval is better than Tre. Not at all. Tre is a much better ball protector and defender (by a long shot). But I think this fanbase's attitude towards Duval should change.

[CDu]

ETA - raise your hand if you thought Tre would be more than 4 percentage points worse than Trevon Duval at 3pt shooting.

I don't know about specific numbers, but based on what I'd read about him last Spring I was pretty sure he was going to be a really bad 3pt shooter. I definitely hoped that Duke could work some mojo on him, but the scouting reports were pretty brutal on his shooting.

[slower]

Interesting read on draft prospects for Zion, Rj, Cam and Tre:

https://www.si.com/nba/2019/02/25/nba-draft-2019-duke-zion-williamson-injury-rj-barrett-cam-reddish-tre-jones

That was a pretty brutal assessment of RJ, Cam and Tre. Total love for Zion, though.

[jv001]

I don't know about specific numbers, but based on what I'd read about him last Spring I was pretty sure he was going to be a really bad 3pt shooter. I definitely hoped that Duke could work some mojo on him, but the scouting reports were pretty brutal on his shooting.

Your post got me to thinking. Wasn't Grant Hill a pretty poor outside shooter his freshmen year? And didn't he get help on his shot from a former Duke player? Maybe Chip Englannd? Then Grant turned into a pretty good outside shooter, especially his Junior and Senior years. Just wondering. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

I remember folks singing Tre's shooting skills. Not that he would be an elite shooter, but that he'd at least be better than Duval.

Now, I'm not arguing Duval is better than Tre. Not at all. Tre is a much better ball protector and defender (by a long shot). But I think this fanbase's attitude towards Duval should change.

Why? Was the criticism of Duval only related to his shooting? And why should Tre Jones' poor 3-pt pct be a factor in the perception of Duval? Seems like a non-sequitur to me.

Incidentally, Tre probably *is* a better shooter than Trevon since shooting encompasses more than just 3-pt shooting. Tre is a much better FT shooter -- 71% to 60% -- and that 71% probably understates the difference since Tre was an 80% FT shooter in high school and is creeping back towards that mean, as Tre has a current streak of 12 FTs made in a row. I'm quite comfortable with having the ball in Tre's hands at the end of games.

[Ian]

Your post got me to thinking. Wasn't Grant Hill a pretty poor outside shooter his freshmen year? And didn't he get help on his shot from a former Duke player? Maybe Chip Englannd? Then Grant turned into a pretty good outside shooter, especially his Junior and Senior years. Just wondering. GoDuke!

Grant did was a decent 3 pt shooter his senior year, 39% on low volume(less than 3 attempts per game). But prior to his senior year he had a total of 17 3-point attempts in his first 3 seasons. To put that in perspective Justin Robinson has 26 career 3 pt attempts in his 2.5 seasons.

[robed deity]

That was a pretty brutal assessment of RJ, Cam and Tre. Total love for Zion, though.

Seems pretty accurate, albeit with a negative-ish slant. It would be hard to expect much more out of Barrett though, especially lately. I mean, the guy is averaging 23,7, and 4 on 46% shooting. Even his 3 pt (33%) pctg isn't awful. I get that his forays into the lane are at times questionable, but it seems like he's finishing those at a higher rate the last few games. I would think his competitiveness and craftiness will serve him well at the next level.

[ChillinDuke]

I dunno if anyone will find this interesting, but I do and since we were on the topic... This is Tre's cumulative 3-point % over the season. It's an ugly trend and not one that's going to help his draft stock, unfortunately.

9117

- Chillin

[Indoor66]

Grant did was a decent 3 pt shooter his senior year, 39% on low volume(less than 3 attempts per game). But prior to his senior year he had a total of 17 3-point attempts in his first 3 seasons. To put that in perspective Justin Robinson has 26 career 3 pt attempts in his 2.5 seasons.

It was also a different game then. Teams were not as 4 point oriented.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I dunno if anyone will find this interesting, but I do and since we were on the topic... This is Tre's cumulative 3-point % over the season. It's an ugly trend and not one that's going to help his draft stock, unfortunately.

9117

- Chillin

Yuck. My hope is that we can feed AOC, Cam, and maybe Joey Baker the ball on the wings with Tre in the corner for 2-3 shots a game. I don't have a link or stats to share, but it seems like he's reasonably accurate from the baseline corner. Is there a way to break his shooting down by zone? Anyone got a link to that?

[Saratoga2]

I dunno if anyone will find this interesting, but I do and since we were on the topic... This is Tre's cumulative 3-point % over the season. It's an ugly trend and not one that's going to help his draft stock, unfortunately.

9117

- Chillin

I wonder what Cam Reddish's chart looks like.

[ChillinDuke]

I wonder what Cam Reddish's chart looks like.

You knew this would happen...

It's much flatter, although the story still isn't great.

9118

- Chillin

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Good Lord....what would poor Jack's look like?

[ChillinDuke]

Good Lord...what would poor Jack's look like?

I hate you.

9119

- Chillin

[jjc92]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.si.com/nba/2019/02/28/nba-mock-draft-2019-zion-williamson-rj-barrett-ja-morant-cam-reddish-jarrett-culver

Sports illustrated latest 2019 mock draft
Notables:
1.Zion-Suns
2.Rj-Cavs
4.Cam-Bulls
8.Nassir Little-Heat
15.Coby White-Magic
29.Tre-Spurs

[Nugget]

CBS Sports' latest mock has:

1 Zion
3 RJ
5 Cam
7 Nassir Little
11 Coby White
25 Tre

[JayZee]

Your post got me to thinking. Wasn't Grant Hill a pretty poor outside shooter his freshmen year? And didn't he get help on his shot from a former Duke player? Maybe Chip Englannd? Then Grant turned into a pretty good outside shooter, especially his Junior and Senior years. Just wondering. GoDuke!

I think Grant got help from Chip after he got to the NBA.

[jv001]

I think Grant got help from Chip after he got to the NBA.

You are probably correct about it being later in Grant's career. Now that I think about it, I bet it was Billy "Sky King" that helped him on his shooting. :cool: GoDuke!

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic updated his 2019 NBA Draft Big Board.

1. Zion
2. R.J.
4. Cam
28. Tre

Others of note:

5. De'Andre Hunter, UVA
9. Nassir Little, UNC
13. Niceil Alexander-Walker, VA Tech
18. Coby White, UNC
27. Ty Jerome, UVA
30. Cam Johnson, UNC

Seems like the consensus among the draft watchers is that Tre's shooting is seriously hurting his draft stock. I was convinced he was going to the NBA Draft in January. Now? I'm not so sure. There are several factors that have been well-discussed on this board - his brother's slow ascension in the NBA, the longtime interest of Tre in being a Blue Devil, etc. - that suggest that a late 1st round/early 2nd round projection might keep him at Duke for at least another year. Whereas I was 95% certain he was gone a couple months ago, now I am certain he will go to the NBA combine with the potential of returning.

Side note: How would UVA look next year if they lost Hunter, Jerome, and Salt?
Side-side note: How will VA Tech look without Justin Robinson and NAW next year?
Side-side-side note: The idea of UNC losing 5 of its most talented players excites me.

[Troublemaker]

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic updated his 2019 NBA Draft Big Board.

1. Zion
2. R.J.
4. Cam
28. Tre


Yeah, and Givony / Schmitz also have a pay article on ESPN Insider ($) about the draft today: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/26102744/big-nba-draft-questions-no-2-pick

Highlights:

Both guys believe Zion belongs in a tier of his own for #1 overall
Both guys believe RJ belongs in a tier of his own for #2 overall
Both guys believe Cam and Morant are battling to be #3 overall
Schmitz believes Tre will be the 3rd PG taken after Morant and Garland

[MrPoon]

I hate you.

9119

- Chillin

I’m guessing that line has more to do with the shrinking volume of shots too. Otherwise it would look a lot worse. Boy, what an amazing fall.

[Natty_B]

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic updated his 2019 NBA Draft Big Board.

1. Zion
2. R.J.
4. Cam
28. Tre


Venice had Tre #15 in his first draft board so a big drop.

[NSDukeFan]

Venice had Tre #15 in his first draft board so a big drop.

Was that for the Italian league?

[Natty_B]

Was that for the Italian league?

Good one!

[Indoor66]

Was that for the Italian league?

No, the West Florida League.

[DBGoins]

Bleacher Report talking about Cam and scouts takes on him. Interesting read but he is still going top 10.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2823969-dukes-cam-reddish-a-beautiful-player-battling-an-ugly-reputation?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

[DavidBenAkiva]

We're getting into the season of individual hot takes. The closer we get to the draft, the more an individual article or blogger will put out their own spin to generate clicks.

I like to look at the aggregate from time to time to check against that sort of thing. Hoops Hype (https://hoopshype.com/2019/02/15/2019-aggregate-nba-mock-draft-5-0-jaxson-hayes-enters-the-lottery/) puts out an aggregate mock draft every month or so that includes NBADraft.net, ESPN, SI, The Athletic, and Bleacher Report.

The version from February 15th has Zion #1 in all mocks.
R.J. is as high as #2 and as low as #3 and is more or less with Ja Morant for that #2 slot.
Cam Reddish is #4 in all but the NBADraft (least reliable, in my opinion) mock, where he was #5.
Tre Jones was #21 in the aggregate a month ago, as high as #15 and as low as #29.

I think we'll see the next aggregate mock draft next week.

[flyingdutchdevil]

We're getting into the season of individual hot takes. The closer we get to the draft, the more an individual article or blogger will put out their own spin to generate clicks.

I like to look at the aggregate from time to time to check against that sort of thing. Hoops Hype (https://hoopshype.com/2019/02/15/2019-aggregate-nba-mock-draft-5-0-jaxson-hayes-enters-the-lottery/) puts out an aggregate mock draft every month or so that includes NBADraft.net, ESPN, SI, The Athletic, and Bleacher Report.

The version from February 15th has Zion #1 in all mocks.
R.J. is as high as #2 and as low as #3 and is more or less with Ja Morant for that #2 slot.
Cam Reddish is #4 in all but the NBADraft (least reliable, in my opinion) mock, where he was #5.
Tre Jones was #21 in the aggregate a month ago, as high as #15 and as low as #29.

I think we'll see the next aggregate mock draft next week.

If Cam is really #4, this is an incredibly weak draft.

Cam is a fascinating case study. He has the length, he has the shot, he's a more-than capable defender and he came in with the reputation as an extreme jack-of-all-trades positionless player who a) is a really good shooter, b) is an excellent playmaker, and c) incredibly high basketball IQ. However, of these 3 traits, only a) holds some water (and he's a very streaky shooter).

At the next level, Cam needs to put on plenty of weight. He also needs to work tirelessly on his dribbling, drives, and quickly reading situations.

If I'm an NBA team with a 4-6 pick, I would seriously contemplate trading that pick down or trading it completely. I just don't see how Reddish, Garland, Langford, and Little quality as top 8 talents (I really like Culver and he's more of a proven commodity, but his upside just isn't there for a top 8 pick either).

[Troublemaker]

If Cam is really #4, this is an incredibly weak draft.

Cam is a fascinating case study. He has the length, he has the shot, he's a more-than capable defender and he came in with the reputation as an extreme jack-of-all-trades positionless player who a) is a really good shooter, b) is an excellent playmaker, and c) incredibly high basketball IQ. However, of these 3 traits, only a) holds some water (and he's a very streaky shooter).

At the next level, Cam needs to put on plenty of weight. He also needs to work tirelessly on his dribbling, drives, and quickly reading situations.

If I'm an NBA team with a 4-6 pick, I would seriously contemplate trading that pick down or trading it completely. I just don't see how Reddish, Garland, Langford, and Little quality as top 8 talents (I really like Culver and he's more of a proven commodity, but his upside just isn't there for a top 8 pick either).

It is, and close followers of recruiting have known about this weak draft for years now. Interestingly, the consensus seems to be that the 2020 draft isn't much better. The 2018 and 2017 drafts were comparatively much stronger than these two upcoming years.

Of course, the best player out of all those drafts might turn out to be Zion.

[JasonEvans]

It is, and close followers of recruiting have known about this weak draft for years now. Interestingly, the consensus seems to be that the 2020 draft isn't much better. The 2018 and 2017 drafts were comparatively much stronger than these two upcoming years.

Of course, the best player out of all those drafts might turn out to be Zion.

The 2018 draft looks phenomenal in hindsight. Not a single bad pick among the top 10 or so players with pretty much the entire top half of the lottery looking like future all-stars. Solid role players/spot starters can be found well into the back half of the first round and even the 2nd. Really good draft!

I expect 2019 draft to pale by comparison. I doubt more than 3 or 4 of these guys end up as future all-stars.

[DavidBenAkiva]

It is, and close followers of recruiting have known about this weak draft for years now. Interestingly, the consensus seems to be that the 2020 draft isn't much better. The 2018 and 2017 drafts were comparatively much stronger than these two upcoming years.

Of course, the best player out of all those drafts might turn out to be Zion.

Culver would be a good late-lottery pick in a normal year, but he's looking like a top 5 player right now. If Ja Morant hadn't exploded onto the scene, this draft might look truly awful. Maybe there will be a Draymond Green or Nikola Jokic in the 2nd round that completely surprises people. That happens about every other year.

Even after the fact, an NBA Draft can turn out to be much better than expected. People were talking about the 2013 NBA Draft as an all-time terrible draft. Anthony Bennett went #1. It was a surprise at the time that he went that high and is looking like one of the worst picks of all time.

But after that, you have Victor Oladipo going #2 and he has been an All-Star. Otto Porter at #3 is turning out to be a nice player in the NBA. Steven Adams and Kelly Olynyk have had productive careers so far. Giannis Antetokounmpo at #15 has been an absolute steal. Mason Plumlee at #22 was a great value pick. Reggie Bullock is a good NBA player and was picked #25. Andre Roberson at #26 is also a good player in the NBA. Rudy Gobert at #27 is, like Giannis, an absolute steal of a draft pick. So that's 3 All-Star caliber players (Oladipo, Giannis, and Gobert) and about a half-dozen or so very good NBA players from the 1st round.

[mr. synellinden]

The 2018 draft looks phenomenal in hindsight. Not a single bad pick among the top 10 or so players with pretty much the entire top half of the lottery looking like future all-stars. Solid role players/spot starters can be found well into the back half of the first round and even the 2nd. Really good draft!

I expect 2019 draft to pale by comparison. I doubt more than 3 or 4 of these guys end up as future all-stars.

So I went back and looked at the draft out of curiosity - and saw Gary Trent (https://gleague.nba.com/player/gary-trent-jr/) there in the second round. And wondered what a difference he (a 40% 3 pt shooter as a freshman) would make on this year's team and where he would be drafted this year. Looking at the mock drafts this year, I'd have to think Trent would have been a lottery pick. I wonder how much college players are really thinking about the strength of a draft in any particular year - and for example, could the perceived weakness of this draft affect the thinking of Tre Jones.

[ChillinDuke]

So I went back and looked at the draft out of curiosity - and saw Gary Trent (https://gleague.nba.com/player/gary-trent-jr/) there in the second round. And wondered what a difference he (a 40% 3 pt shooter as a freshman) would make on this year's team and where he would be drafted this year. Looking at the mock drafts this year, I'd have to think Trent would have been a lottery pick. I wonder how much college players are really thinking about the strength of a draft in any particular year - and for example, could the perceived weakness of this draft affect the thinking of Tre Jones.

It's very easy to fall into the common pitfall of assuming upside. But the Tre situation (and every situation) has potential downsides as well.

In line with your thinking above (bolded), posters need to realize that there is a chance (however small, but certainly not zero and certainly in my estimation >5%) that Tre regresses and/or does not improve next year. Remember it's all relative. So Tre could improve, but not improve enough to "keep pace" with typical sophomores. And suddenly, you're looking at situations where your draft stock goes down.

Nothing is guaranteed for most players. Guys like Zion notwithstanding. And Tre's jumpshot and general inability to create any consistent offense has me at least somewhat concerned about his pro future. I grant that the scenario I'm describing is unlikely and potentially very unlikely. But too many people ignore the possibility completely.

- Chillin

[House P]

If I'm an NBA team with a 4-6 pick, I would seriously contemplate trading that pick down or trading it completely. I just don't see how Reddish, Garland, Langford, and Little quality as top 8 talents

For some historical perspective, here is a list of the players drafted 4-6 in the years 2000-2014 ranked by career win shares (https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/draft_finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2000&year_max=2014&college_id=0&pick_overall_min=4&pick_overall_max=6&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&order_by=ws). While there are several perennial all-stars (Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosch, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love) at the top of this list, the average player drafted 4-6 is more likely to be a guy who plays 20-30 mpg over a 10 or so year NBA career.

Here are the four guys ranked closest to the median on this list.

- Shaun Livingston
- Tyreke Evans
- Josh Childress
- Martell Webster

I am not an NBA expert, but these 4 players may be fairly realistic comps for the type of career a team might reasonably expect from Cam. As a Duke fan, I can hope Cam becomes an all-star, but I probably shouldn't expect this from him or anyone drafted 4-6.

In short, whoever is picking 4-6 can hope to get a guy who has a career like Chris Paul or DWade, but they should probably expect to get a guy who has a career more like Shaun Livingston or Martell Webster (or Chris Kamen or Cody Zeller or Tristan Thompson).

[Sir Stealth]

Here are the four guys ranked closest to the median on this list.

- Shaun Livingston
- Tyreke Evans
- Josh Childress
- Martell Webster



Kind of a weird group. Livingston, of course, suffered a gruesome injury that has to have greatly affected his upside even as he's still rebounded to carve out a nice career. Childress over Deng was an atrocious pick by the Hawks at the time, and he should never have been picked as high as he was. As a Hawks fan, I recall groaning loudly at the time about how dumb the Hawks always drafted, and this was the year before the Marvin Williams over Chris Paul pick happened! And then broadcasting their intention to reach for Shelden rather than trying to trade down (another 4-6 example who most teams did not assess as highly). Gawd. Point taken that the likelihood of getting a star tends to go way down in most drafts after the Top 2-3.

[JasonEvans]

Point taken that the likelihood of getting a star tends to go way down in most drafts after the Top 2-3.

This is what makes last year's draft so remarkable. Mark it down... at least 6 guys from that draft will make an all-star game at some point in their career, probably more like 8+.

[Saratoga2]

If Cam is really #4, this is an incredibly weak draft.

Cam is a fascinating case study. He has the length, he has the shot, he's a more-than capable defender and he came in with the reputation as an extreme jack-of-all-trades positionless player who a) is a really good shooter, b) is an excellent playmaker, and c) incredibly high basketball IQ. However, of these 3 traits, only a) holds some water (and he's a very streaky shooter).

At the next level, Cam needs to put on plenty of weight. He also needs to work tirelessly on his dribbling, drives, and quickly reading situations.

If I'm an NBA team with a 4-6 pick, I would seriously contemplate trading that pick down or trading it completely. I just don't see how Reddish, Garland, Langford, and Little quality as top 8 talents (I really like Culver and he's more of a proven commodity, but his upside just isn't there for a top 8 pick either).

Cam has the length and is a very solid defender. a) I question whether he is a really good shooter. He is no more than a 33% shooter from 3 against college players, usually shorter than he is. He shoots from the front of his chest, which will be hard to get off in the NBA and so far his mid range shot isn't impressive. b) his playmaking is harmed by his very loose handle that makes him turnover prone. He can bring the ball up court but is a trainwreck in traffic. C) I wonder about the BB IQ of a player who wracks up three charging fouls in a game against Wake. Don't see the thought process there or the recognition of the defense being played against him. To me, Cam lacks refinement in his game He has the physical talent to be special but his progress hasn't been that good this year. He is young and may come on to be that special player that coach K expected, but I don't think it will be this season.

[JasonEvans]

Cam will be a 3&D player in the NBA. You ordinarily hope for more than that from a mid lottery pick but in this weak draft that is probably what you will get. I expect the Hawks to take him at #5, though I would rather they take Hunter.

[MChambers]

Cam will be a 3&D player in the NBA. You ordinarily hope for more than that from a mid lottery pick but in this weak draft that is probably what you will get. I expect the Hawks to take him at #5, though I would rather they take Hunter.

I'd say Hunter is more NBA ready, but he should be. He's 21 and has had three years in the UVa program. Maybe Cam has more potential, since he's only 19?

[budwom]

Cam has the length and is a very solid defender. a) I question whether he is a really good shooter. He is no more than a 33% shooter from 3 against college players, usually shorter than he is. He shoots from the front of his chest, which will be hard to get off in the NBA and so far his mid range shot isn't impressive. b) his playmaking is harmed by his very loose handle that makes him turnover prone. He can bring the ball up court but is a trainwreck in traffic. C) I wonder about the BB IQ of a player who wracks up three charging fouls in a game against Wake. Don't see the thought process there or the recognition of the defense being played against him. To me, Cam lacks refinement in his game He has the physical talent to be special but his progress hasn't been that good this year. He is young and may come on to be that special player that coach K expected, but I don't think it will be this season.

very much agree. Regarding the thought process behind the three charging fouls (which I also found to be inexplicable), I saw mention in the Cam article the other day that K wants Cam to drive more...so I guess driving is on his mind, even when perhaps there's no opening whatsoever...a mindset Allen succumbed to at times...still hoping he can pull it together, tighten up the handle, etc, etc.

[jv001]

Someone mentioned Gary Trent, Jr up thread. I don't keep up with the NBA that much, but it seems Gary not being on a NBA roster sort of proves last years draft was a great draft. I wonder if Duke fans had rather have Gary on this years team or Cam? Gary is a better 3 point shooter, has a good handle and is a good defender. Well he was all 3 of those at Duke. In other words would we be a better team? I'm about 50-50 on it. GoDuke!

[JasonEvans]

I'd say Hunter is more NBA ready, but he should be. He's 21 and has had three years in the UVa program. Maybe Cam has more potential, since he's only 19?

Yeah, and Hunter will likely be there with the 8th or so pick that the Hawks will get from Dallas. There is something to be said for potential growth, especially on a team that is not quite ready to win.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz revealed the ESPN updated mock draft on the Scott Van Pelt version of SportsCenter.

1. Knicks: Zion Williamson, Duke
2. Cavaliers: R.J. Barrett, Duke
3. Suns: Ja Morant, Murray State
4. Bulls: Darius Garland, Vanderbilt
5. Hawks: De'Andre Hunter, Virginia
6. Grizzlies: Cam Reddish, Duke
7. Hawks: Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech
8. Wizards: Sekou Doumbouya, France
9. Pelicans: Jaxson Hayes, Texas
10. Lakers: Romeo Langford, Indiana

Nassir Little is outside the lottery in their estimation. They have a few words to share about Little and Reddish.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NMAAlQZ2nY&

[wsb3]

Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz revealed the ESPN updated mock draft on the Scott Van Pelt version of SportsCenter.

1. Knicks: Zion Williamson, Duke
2. Cavaliers: R.J. Barrett, Duke
3. Suns: Ja Morant, Murray State
4. Bulls: Darius Garland, Vanderbilt
5. Hawks: De'Andre Hunter, Virginia
6. Grizzlies: Cam Reddish, Duke
7. Hawks: Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech
8. Wizards: Sekou Doumbouya, France
9. Pelicans: Jaxson Hayes, Texas
10. Lakers: Romeo Langford, Indiana

Nassir Little is outside the lottery in their estimation. They have a few words to share about Little and Reddish.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NMAAlQZ2nY&

Thanks for sharing. I missed this last night. Little sliding and Colby White climbing. They should be gone.

[wsb3]

Someone mentioned Gary Trent, Jr up thread. I don't keep up with the NBA that much, but it seems Gary not being on a NBA roster sort of proves last years draft was a great draft. I wonder if Duke fans had rather have Gary on this years team or Cam? Gary is a better 3 point shooter, has a good handle and is a good defender. Well he was all 3 of those at Duke. In other words would we be a better team? I'm about 50-50 on it. GoDuke!

Considering Gary shot over 40% from 3 & 87% from the free throw line, as a freshman... Gary for me.

[JayZee]

Considering Gary shot over 40% from 3 & 87% from the free throw line, as a freshman... Gary for me.

Donald Rumsfeld — 'You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.'

<eom>

[UrinalCake]

Makes total sense to me that Cam would be out of the top 5 and Little would be borderline lotto. I get the whole drafting on potential argument, but how can you have NBA potential if you aren’t producing at the college level? Potential has to be more than just measurables.

[kAzE]

Makes total sense to me that Cam would be out of the top 5 and Little would be borderline lotto. I get the whole drafting on potential argument, but how can you have NBA potential if you aren’t producing at the college level? Potential has to be more than just measurables.

Russell Westbrook played 9 minutes per game in his freshman year at UCLA . . . he turned out okay.

Some guys are just further along in their development at age 18 than others. It doesn't mean they'll never become great players.

Cam is judged pretty harshly for a freshman. I'll admit even I've been pretty harsh in some of my comments about him. He's frustrating, because you know he can do it. However, he's played great defense all year long, and he's actually averaging more points than Damian Lillard, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson and many other NBA stars did during their freshman years. Some guys just take awhile to become the player they are supposed to be, and you just can't judge a kid based on one year of college basketball.

[Dukehk]

Makes total sense to me that Cam would be out of the top 5 and Little would be borderline lotto. I get the whole drafting on potential argument, but how can you have NBA potential if you aren’t producing at the college level? Potential has to be more than just measurables.

I believe guys like Cam and little will probably intrigue alot of GM's when they start the individual/private workouts coupled with their measurables (wingspan, height etc.).

Both those guys are the prototypical wing guards/forwards in the modern NBA. I doubt either one slips out of the lottery. Most other mock drafts have little in the lotto, espn is probably just trying to create some controversy there. Not to mention that they completely left out rui hachimura, which is another major misjudgement on their part.

[English]

Makes total sense to me that Cam would be out of the top 5 and Little would be borderline lotto. I get the whole drafting on potential argument, but how can you have NBA potential if you aren’t producing at the college level? Potential has to be more than just measurables.

This statement makes me question whether you actually get the whole drafting on potential argument.

In addition to KaZe's earlier comment about Westbrook (which I think is tough to refute), Paul George--the player who scouts often cite as Reddish's likely ceiling comp--coming out of the notoriously tough WAC conference, averaged 14.3pts in 34min as a freshman (Cam averages 13.7pts in 29.5min). George's shooting percentages were better, but his FT% was appreciably worse. There aren't many reliable defensive measures for Paul George to compare to Reddish, but I suspect Reddish's defense is better now than George's was in college as either a freshman or sophomore. And again, in what sports-reference calls "Strength of Schedule," where zero is points above/below D1 average, Fresno State's competition measured a 0.96 whereas Duke's is a 12.45.

Did Paul George have NBA potential as a freshman? I feel quite confident that Paul George's college numbers aren't some never-to-be-seen-replicated outlier for future NBA production, although his ascent in the NBA is obviously well above average. I'd guess that there are a handful of similar NBA trajectories like this--Jimmy Butler comes immediately to mind. But saying there cannot exist NBA potential where there is no impressive college production is silly.

[arnie]

This statement makes me question whether you actually get the whole drafting on potential argument.

In addition to KaZe's earlier comment about Westbrook (which I think is tough to refute), Paul George--the player who scouts often cite as Reddish's likely ceiling comp--coming out of the notoriously tough WAC conference, averaged 14.3pts in 34min as a freshman (Cam averages 13.7pts in 29.5min). George's shooting percentages were better, but his FT% was appreciably worse. There aren't many reliable defensive measures for Paul George to compare to Reddish, but I suspect Reddish's defense is better now than George's was in college as either a freshman or sophomore. And again, in what sports-reference calls "Strength of Schedule," where zero is points above/below D1 average, Fresno State's competition measured a 0.96 whereas Duke's is a 12.45.

Did Paul George have NBA potential as a freshman? I feel quite confident that Paul George's college numbers aren't some never-to-be-seen-replicated outlier for future NBA production, although his ascent in the NBA is obviously well above average. I'd guess that there are a handful of similar NBA trajectories like this--Jimmy Butler comes immediately to mind. But saying there cannot exist NBA potential where there is no impressive college production is silly.

Kind of an opposite trajectory from Andrew Wiggins.

[1991 duke law]

Everyone can identify players who had poor to average production in college who succeeded in the NBA. Similarly, everyone can identify players who had excellent production in college who did not succeed in the NBA.

The issue that people have identified with Cam is that, notwithstanding his defense, he has not looked anywhere close to NBA ready in his offensive game. That does not mean that he will not turn it on in the NBA - although he may be consistently average in the NBA as well. Hard to know. However, I have a much greater sense of confidence in the offensive skills shown by RJ and Zion based on their performance.

I am not writing off any opportunity for Cam to be successful in the NBA. But I have reservations as to the likelihood that that will occur.

I have read many criticisms from Cam supporters calling anyone who disagrees “armchair psychiatrists” and “silly” etc. But two things to keep in mind - virtually everyone posting here wants Cam to succeed. But at the same time, we have not seen him play at a level that gives us comfort that he will succeed. Nothing silly about that.

Hopefully his game eventually elevates to the quality of his physique – which is phenomenal. And hopefully he garners a FF MVP - which will end any discussion on this point.

[DavidBenAkiva]

But at the same time, we have not seen him play at a level that gives us comfort that he will succeed.

We have seen glimpses of what Cam can do, and it can be pretty spectacular. We have not seen consistency. That probably doesn't bother NBA people because they have seen guys develop consistency so often that they are willing to bet on it coming along.

From my untrained eyes, it certainly seems like Cam looks like he knows where he has to be on the court and generally what he has to do. You can't say that about Nassir Little by way of comparison. So it is about execution.

It's like R.J. and his jump shot. It is not a reliable shot right now. But you can see how it might become reliable in time.

[olddevil]

Where do Tre Jones and M. Bolden stand with mock drafts? Any chance that either one or both will stay with Duke?

[fraggler]

Everyone can identify players who had poor to average production in college who succeeded in the NBA. Similarly, everyone can identify players who had excellent production in college who did not succeed in the NBA.

The issue that people have identified with Cam is that, notwithstanding his defense, he has not looked anywhere close to NBA ready in his offensive game. That does not mean that he will not turn it on in the NBA - although he may be consistently average in the NBA as well. Hard to know. However, I have a much greater sense of confidence in the offensive skills shown by RJ and Zion based on their performance.

I am not writing off any opportunity for Cam to be successful in the NBA. But I have reservations as to the likelihood that that will occur.

I have read many criticisms from Cam supporters calling anyone who disagrees “armchair psychiatrists” and “silly” etc. But two things to keep in mind - virtually everyone posting here wants Cam to succeed. But at the same time, we have not seen him play at a level that gives us comfort that he will succeed. Nothing silly about that.

Hopefully his game eventually elevates to the quality of his physique – which is phenomenal. And hopefully he garners a FF MVP - which will end any discussion on this point.

As has been repeated ad nauseum, the NBA draft is about potential. Are you saying that you cannot see Cam's potential?

[DavidBenAkiva]

HoopsHype updated its aggregate Mock Draft (https://hoopshype.com/2019/03/19/nba-mock-draft-big-board-deandre-hunter-cameron-johnson-jordan-nwora/) (v. 6.0) last week. This aggregates the rankings from ESPN, SI, NBADraft.net, Bleacher Report, and The Athletic. This a pre-draft mock, so I think it will be nice to see where guys end up after the NCAA Tournament.

Some highlights:
Zion is 1st across the board
R.J. Barrett is 3rd, holding steady more or less with one publication, SI, putting him at 4th while the others have either him or Ja Morant 2nd
Reddish is 4th, but the highest he goes is 5th in three mocks while NBADraft.net has him 8th
De'Andre Hunger is 5th, going as high as 4th and as low as 9th. It wouldn't surprise
Coby White checks in at 8th, where he is as high as 5th (NBADraft.net) while others have him in the 8-13 range
Nassir Little is 15th, appearing as high as 10th (NBADraft.net) and as low as 26th (Bleacher Report) - his play in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament has probably bumped him up so far.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is at 16th and could sneak into the lottery but some have him in the last 1st round
Tre Jones is at 24th, appearing as low as 33rd (NBADraft.net - starting to catch a theme here...) and as high as 24th in The Athletic and Bleacher Report mocks

[Nugget]

HoopsHype updated its aggregate Mock Draft (https://hoopshype.com/2019/03/19/nba-mock-draft-big-board-deandre-hunter-cameron-johnson-jordan-nwora/) (v. 6.0) last week. This aggregates the rankings from ESPN, SI, NBADraft.net, Bleacher Report, and The Athletic. This a pre-draft mock, so I think it will be nice to see where guys end up after the NCAA Tournament.

Some highlights:
Zion is 1st across the board
R.J. Barrett is 3rd, holding steady more or less with one publication, SI, putting him at 4th while the others have either him or Ja Morant 2nd
Reddish is 4th, but the highest he goes is 5th in three mocks while NBADraft.net has him 8th
De'Andre Hunger is 5th, going as high as 4th and as low as 9th. It wouldn't surprise
Coby White checks in at 8th, where he is as high as 5th (NBADraft.net) while others have him in the 8-13 range
Nassir Little is 15th, appearing as high as 10th (NBADraft.net) and as low as 26th (Bleacher Report) - his play in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament has probably bumped him up so far.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is at 16th and could sneak into the lottery but some have him in the last 1st round
Tre Jones is at 24th, appearing as low as 33rd (NBADraft.net - starting to catch a theme here...) and as high as 24th in The Athletic and Bleacher Report mocks

Not sure how connected its author is, but Sports Illustrated's post tournament mock has:

1 Zion
3 RJ
5 Cam
6 Coby White
10 DeAndre Hunter
11 PJ Washington
12 Nassir Little
16 Tyler Herro
18 Keldon Johnson
19 Nickeil Alexander-Walker
20 Cam Johnson
28 Kabengele (to the Warriors -- an interesting potential replacement for Draymond Green)


https://www.si.com/nba/2019/04/09/2019-nba-mock-draft-march-madness-zion-williamson-jarrett-culver-deandre-hunter

[DavidBenAkiva]

Hoops Hype updated their Aggregate Mock Draft, Version 7.0 (https://hoopshype.com/2019/04/12/nba-mock-draft-big-board-grant-williams-mfiondu-kabengele/). This includes NBADraft.net, ESPN, SI, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, and Sporting News.

Some notes:
There is consensus on the top 3 with Zion, Ja Morant, and R.J. going in that order.
Cam Reddish has dipped a bit, appearing as low as 10th (NBADraft.net) and as high as 4th (Sporting News). He's 6th in the aggregate.
Coby White has made a big jump up to 8th in the mock draft, appearing as high as 5th (NBADraft.net) and as low as 13th (Sporting News).
Nassir Little has rebounded some, and is now at 11th appearing between 9 and 16.
Tyler Herro, who announced today that he's going to test the Draft, appears at 20th with all mocks having him in the First Round. I think he stays in the draft.
Cam Johnson is also appearing on many mock drafts and checks in at 23rd overall. That's a head-scratcher to me. He's old at 23 and has one NBA skill. Granted, it's a really good skill, but you can guard him by forcing him to put the ball on the floor.
Ty Jerome is also on all but one mock drafts, as high as 25th (Bleacher Report) and in the first round on all the other mocks. Oddly, Sporting News doesn't have him listed.

[UrinalCake]

In a move that will surprise no one, Yahoo has projected the Charlotte Hornets to draft a UNC player! Color me shocked. Here’s their take on Nassir Little. I still don’t understand why any wing would want to go there after what they’ve done to Little, Justin Jackson, Harrison Barnes, McAdoo, Pinson, Tokoto, etc.


12. Charlotte Hornets

F Nassir Little, North Carolina, 6-6, 220

During the McDonald’s All-American game, Little looked like a slight combination of Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. But once the college season started, Little couldn’t quite find his rhythm in coach Roy Williams’ system. His athleticism will translate to the next level and there will be excitement for fans who get to watch him in Charlotte.

College coach scouting notes: “Nassir is an elite, raw talent. I know he got lost in the shuffle a little bit at UNC with Luke Maye and Cam Johnson. He has the skill set to see a good number of minutes four or five years down the road.” — ACC assistant coach

Link (https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/2019-nba-mock-draft-20-how-much-did-national-title-game-help-rj-barrett-151230570.html)

[devildeac]

In a move that will surprise no one, Yahoo has projected the Charlotte Hornets to draft a UNC player! Color me shocked. Here’s their take on Nassir Little. I still don’t understand why any wing would want to go there after what they’ve done to Little, Justin Jackson, Harrison Barnes, McAdoo, Pinson, Tokoto, etc.



Link (https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/2019-nba-mock-draft-20-how-much-did-national-title-game-help-rj-barrett-151230570.html)

Maybe they could draft several cheater guys to play in Charlotte :rolleyes:.

[arnie]

Maybe they could draft several cheater guys to play in Charlotte :rolleyes:.

In the unlikely event Hornets win draft lottery, what team does Jordan trade the pick to? He would not want a Dukie to be the star even if he could raise ticket prices.

[JNort]

In a move that will surprise no one, Yahoo has projected the Charlotte Hornets to draft a UNC player! Color me shocked. Here’s their take on Nassir Little. I still don’t understand why any wing would want to go there after what they’ve done to Little, Justin Jackson, Harrison Barnes, McAdoo, Pinson, Tokoto, etc.

Link (https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/2019-nba-mock-draft-20-how-much-did-national-title-game-help-rj-barrett-151230570.html)
Omg I would be thrilled if we got Little! My real fear is we draft a big man. Little just has so much upside and I really think Roy held him back

[Indoor66]

Omg I would be thrilled if we got Little! My real fear is we draft a big man. Little just has so much upside and I really think Roy held him back

Isn't he a Little big man?

[budwom]

In the unlikely event Hornets win draft lottery, what team does Jordan trade the pick to? He would not want a Dukie to be the star even if he could raise ticket prices.

He'll take Cameron Johnson.

[Troublemaker]

Cam Johnson is also appearing on many mock drafts and checks in at 23rd overall. That's a head-scratcher to me. He's old at 23 and has one NBA skill. Granted, it's a really good skill, but you can guard him by forcing him to put the ball on the floor.
Ty Jerome is also on all but one mock drafts, as high as 25th (Bleacher Report) and in the first round on all the other mocks. Oddly, Sporting News doesn't have him listed.

He's also 6'9", and big wings are the scarcest assets in the NBA these days. Plus, when picking in the 20s, you're basically just hoping for a quality backup player that can be in the rotation. Cam Johnson might very well turn out to be that.

[NSDukeFan]

In a move that will surprise no one, Yahoo has projected the Charlotte Hornets to draft a UNC player! Color me shocked. Here’s their take on Nassir Little. I still don’t understand why any wing would want to go there after what they’ve done to Little, Justin Jackson, Harrison Barnes, McAdoo, Pinson, Tokoto, etc.



Link (https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/2019-nba-mock-draft-20-how-much-did-national-title-game-help-rj-barrett-151230570.html)

By that description, it sounds like Little (after being a potential top 3 pick and ready for the pros, before playing for Roy) is now two years away from being two years away. Fortunately, it’s somewhat worked for Bruno Caboclo.

[arnie]

He'll take Cameron Johnson.

Or he works a multi team deal to trade the #1 pick and couple of Bobcat starters to get several 1st round picks used to draft Maye, Johnson, White and Little. That forever endears him to his UNC base in Charlotte.

[devildeac]

Or he works a multi team deal to trade the #1 pick and couple of Bobcat starters to get several 1st round picks used to draft Maye, Johnson, White and Little. That forever endears him to his UNC base in Charlotte.

You omitted the "greatest defensive flopper, err, player in the ncaa" last season :rolleyes:.

[arnie]

You omitted the "greatest defensive flopper, err, player in the ncaa" last season :rolleyes:.

Yea sorry, memory failure. Maybe Sir Michael picks him up as a free agent.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Hoops Hype (https://hoopshype.com/2019/05/15/2019-nba-mock-draft-zion-williamson-lottery-results/) has released is aggregate mock draft, the first post-lottery look. Some highlights:

Zion is unanimous #1 to the Pelicans
Almost everyone has Ja Morant at #2 to the Grizzlies
Almost everyone has R.J. Barrett at #3 to the Knicks
Most have Cam Reddish at #8 to the Hawks but going as high as #5 (Sports Illustrated) and as low as #10 (NBADraft.net)

De'Andre Hunter of UVA appears at #4 and is in a tier with Jarrett Culver and Darius Garland as the next group of players drafted after Zion, Ja, and RJ.
TY Jerome checks in at #29, as high as #24 (The Athletic) and as low as not drafted (The Ringer)
Kyle Guy is #68 overall, appearing late in the second round in two mock drafts

Coby White looks to be the first UNC player to go in the lottery since Harrison Barnes. He is at #7 to the Bulls in almost all mock drafts. As a Bulls fan, that makes a lot of sense to me. The Bulls need a point guard and he fits the bill.
Nassir Little might join Coby White in the lottery. He's 11th in the aggregate, going as high as 9th (The Athletic) and as low as 23rd (Bleacher Report)
Cameron Johnson also appears in the 1st round for most, as high as 18th and as low as 31st. As an older, unathletic, mostly one-dimensional player, that baffles me. That might speak to the nature of this particular draft. After the first 3, there are few certainties.

PJ Washington (16), Tyler Herro (19), and Keldon Johnson (20) of Kentucky are all in the 1st Round, but few have them in the lottery.

Jordan Nwora of Louisville also appears in a couple of mock drafts, #28 (NBADraft.net) and #37 (SI). That would have significant effects on Louisville this upcoming season.