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View Full Version : DBR Podcast #132 - Predictions and a look ahead at Kentucky



JasonEvans
11-02-2018, 01:17 PM
I'm sure Sam will chime in with a rundown of everything we predicted...

https://soundcloud.com/dbrpodcast/dbr-podcast-132-predictions-and-kentucky-preview

0:00 Time for some predictions… brought to you by Byrd Campbell
0:30 We are time travelers, recording in the past to make predictions about the future
2:50 It is the prediction episode, Sam’s favorite time of the year
3:55 We begin with our guess at who will score the most points this season
5:10 Most rebounds… we are all in on Zion
5:40 Most blocked shots, Donald goes out on a limb
6:45 Most assists, like there is any choice other than Tre here
7:15 Most steals, which gets us into a short discussion of Duke’s D will be like
8:45 Field Goal percentage, we finally have truly different opinions
10:10 Highest 3 point percentage and total 3 pointers made
12:00 How many games will Duke win this season… time for us to be wildly optimistic
13:30 True road wins, Jason did some research
15:45 How many ACC teams will make the NCAA tourney?
17:20 Sam introduces some fun categories: Total number of slam dunks for Zion Williamson
19:35 We guess at Jack White’s total minutes played this year which gets us into a conversation about the depth and rotation
22:05 Donald’s favorite category - How many times will Duke score 100+ points in a game?
23:00 How many times will Duke have a 30 point scorer in a game this season? Our guesses will shock you!
24:35 How many combined points per game for RJ + Zion, Donald goes insane.
26:00 Last category—how many total 3-pointers will Marquis Bolden make this season? Jason talks himself into a stupid answer.
29:00 We get some predictions from our two sponsors, Byrd Campbell and DominateTestPrep.com
32:20 We preview the big game with Kentucky, Donald starts with a look at what Kentucky will do on the perimeter
34:55 Jason talks about the Kentucky big men, the strength of their team
38:20 Sam is interested in seeing how Duke plays D in this game
40:00 Donald makes a crazy bold prediction about the game… overtime!
41:25 Sam says goodbye and urges you to email us at DBRPodcast@gmail.com

-Jason "comments on the folly of our predictions is always welcome!" Evans

HereBeforeCoachK
11-02-2018, 08:46 PM
Good stuff....I was kind of fascinated by the discussion of Jack White's minutes....I forget who said what, but I tend to agree with the guy who said he'd get double digit minutes per game......and I think an 8 man rotation is more likely this year than most. I think minutes will go to the four frosh more than anyone else, but considerable minutes will go to Javin, Bolden, AOC and White.

JasonEvans
11-02-2018, 09:17 PM
Good stuff...I was kind of fascinated by the discussion of Jack White's minutes...I forget who said what, but I tend to agree with the guy who said he'd get double digit minutes per game...and I think an 8 man rotation is more likely this year than most. I think minutes will go to the four frosh more than anyone else, but considerable minutes will go to Javin, Bolden, AOC and White.

Sam had Jack with double digit minutes. I was more like 8 minutes per game. Donald was less than that.

UrinalCake
11-04-2018, 08:58 PM
Agree that Barrett will be the leading scorer, if only because he'll be more consistent. Zion will have some games where he scores 6 or 8 points, but I think Barrett's floor is much higher and even in his "off" games he'll put up 15 just like Bagley did last season. But there's no way he averages as many points as Redick, with Zion and Reddish (who everybody seems to forget about) capable of huge nights. JJ averaged 26.8 his senior year, which would be insane. I could see Barrett putting up the 21.0 that Bagley averaged, given that Bagley also had scorers around him and I believe this year's team will play at a faster pace.

As far as blocks, the argument against Zion is that he may be required to guard on the perimeter a fair amount, and also that he doesn't have a long standing reach. His insane vertical will offset that to some extent, but blocking shots under the paint means he won't have time to gather. I could actually see Javin being in contention for this one, his role defensively is often to freelance and block shots from the weak side, he is 6'10 and very athletic in his own right.

Obviously Jones will lead the team in assists but a more interesting question would be who will be SECOND on the team in assists? Barrett and Zion both like to pass the ball, and they see the floor well. I haven't looked through the exhibition stats but 'd be tempted to take Zion in this one.

JasonEvans
11-05-2018, 05:00 AM
The second best passer on the team is Cam Reddish, but I think RJ will end up being second in assists because he will have the ball in his hands a lot more than Cam does.

Your rationale about Javin and the blocked shots is solid. I came very close to picking him.

UrinalCake
11-05-2018, 09:48 AM
Finally listened to the rest of the pod - I am totally on board with Jason’s prediction of double digit made threes for Bolden. If you watched the Earn Everything series, there’s a scene from one of the very first practices where K is explaining the offensive system to the team. He says they’re going to install a five-out/zero-in offense and that they key to the whole system is that all five players must be capable of hitting standstill threes. Then he goes into his story about telling Kobe that he’ll get open standstill threes.

Prior to that scene, there’s another where K is working with the assistant coaches and doing some walk-throughs. They specifically discuss Bolden and say that even he should go out to the three point line to generate space. So while I don’t think he’ll be jacking them up like crazy, I do think that K wants him to take them and I could see him hitting one every two games.

kAzE
11-05-2018, 10:24 AM
Small quibble in reference to the discussion about steals. I believe Donald said that only the player who ends up with possession of the ball gets credit for the steal. I was curious, so I Googled it.

The official way steals are credited is this:


STEALS (ST)

A steal is credited to a defensive player who is directly responsible for causing an opponent’s turnover. Steals are credited to a defensive player who:

Intercepts or deflects to a teammate an opponent’s pass.

Takes the ball away from a dribbler or taps the dribble to a teammate.

Takes away or taps the ball to a teammate from an opponent who is holding it.

Taps the ball or deflects a pass off an opponent out of bounds.

Creates a held ball by grasping the ball while an opponent is holding it, and the defensive team gains possession.

Steals are not credited when:

The opponent’s turnover is caused by a violation (traveling, double dribble, etc.).

The turnover is a result of an offensive foul.

So going by that, it's not the player who ends up with the ball, but the player who tips a pass or pokes a ball loose. I actually did not know that forcing a jump ball results in a steal if your team gets possession of the ball. That is pretty cool.

I think Jason's guess of Tre Jones was probably the safest for team leader in steals, but RJ might have a pretty good shot at it as well.

BandAlum83
11-05-2018, 10:39 AM
Finally listened to the rest of the pod - I am totally on board with Jason’s prediction of double digit made threes for Bolden. If you watched the Earn Everything series, there’s a scene from one of the very first practices where K is explaining the offensive system to the team. He says they’re going to install a five-out/zero-in offense and that they key to the whole system is that all five players must be capable of hitting standstill threes. Then he goes into his story about telling Kobe that he’ll get open standstill threes.

Prior to that scene, there’s another where K is working with the assistant coaches and doing some walk-throughs. They specifically discuss Bolden and say that even he should go out to the three point line to generate space. So while I don’t think he’ll be jacking them up like crazy, I do think that K wants him to take them and I could see him hitting one every two games.

The biggest problem I see with Bolden making double digit 3s is that in order to do that, he will need to take an average of just under 1 per game. If he makes 30%, he would need to take 34 shots. At 10-15 minutes per game average, do we really think he will be taking that many? Last year, Wendell had a great shot from three and got quite a few stanstill opportunities, played twice the minutes and didn't come near that many shots, did he?

JasonEvans
11-05-2018, 11:39 AM
The biggest problem I see with Bolden making double digit 3s is that in order to do that, he will need to take an average of just under 1 per game. If he makes 30%, he would need to take 34 shots. At 10-15 minutes per game average, do we really think he will be taking that many? Last year, Wendell had a great shot from three and got quite a few stanstill opportunities, played twice the minutes and didn't come near that many shots, did he?

Wendell was 19-46 on 3s last season. I agree that it will be a bit of a challenge for Marquis to get to that number (46), but I think teams are going to be so wary of RJ and Zion and Cam driving to the hole that Marquis will get a fair number of looks from 3 when he sets screens. My 12 prediction may be a little high, I was sorta talked into it in the moment, but I bet he is at least at 8 or 10 on the season.

BandAlum83
11-05-2018, 02:17 PM
Wendell was 19-46 on 3s last season. I agree that it will be a bit of a challenge for Marquis to get to that number (46), but I think teams are going to be so wary of RJ and Zion and Cam driving to the hole that Marquis will get a fair number of looks from 3 when he sets screens. My 12 prediction may be a little high, I was sorta talked into it in the moment, but I bet he is at least at 8 or 10 on the season.

46?!

Wow, that's more than I would have thought he took. I thought there were lots of games where he didn't take one. I guess he made up for it with 2 and 3 attempt games.

thanks for going to the record books, Jason. And yes, you were kinda brow beaten into the 12 pick!

UrinalCake
11-05-2018, 08:45 PM
46?!

Wow, that's more than I would have thought he took. I thought there were lots of games where he didn't take one. I guess he made up for it with 2 and 3 attempt games.

thanks for going to the record books, Jason. And yes, you were kinda brow beaten into the 12 pick!

I had the exact opposite reaction; I was shocked that his numbers were that LOW. I would have thought that he averaged about 3 attempts per game and that he made way more than 19 on the season. I remember one early game against an overmatched opponent where they just decided to not even guard him behind the line because they knew they had to chance. Carter wound up hitting 4 or 5 just in that one game. In the first CHeat game I remember him hitting a couple. Yet he only hit 19 on the season? Apparently my memory can't be trusted.

So with that in mind, yeah I guess expecting Bolden to hit 12 is pretty ambitious. But I do think that him and Javin being able to take and hit threes is going to be an important part of our offense.

Dev11
11-06-2018, 05:05 PM
thanks for going to the record books, Jason. And yes, you were kinda brow beaten into the 12 pick!

Excuse me, I make the rules for the stats prediction game, and I think Jason talked himself right into it.

For the record, in case anybody wants to play along, here were the guesses:

1. Most points
Sam: RJ
Donald: RJ
Jason: RJ

2. Most rebounds
Sam: Zion
Donald: Zion
Jason: Zion

3. Most blocked shots
Sam: Zion
Donald: Bolden
Jason: Zion

4. Most assists
Sam: Tre Jones
Donald: Tre
Jason: Tre

5. Most steals
Sam: RJ Barrett
Donald: RJ
Jason: Tre Jones

6. Highest FG % (minimum 1 fg/game)
Sam: RJ Barrett
Donald: Zion
Jason: Javin

7. Highest 3% (min 0.5/game)
Sam: Alex O
Donald: Alex
Jason: Alex

8. Total 3s
Sam: Barrett
Donald: Cam
Jason: Cam

9. Total wins (29, 28, 25, 35)
Sam: 28
Donald: 36
Jason: 33

10. Total true road wins
Sam: 5
Donald: 6
Jason: 6

11. ACC teams in the tournament
Sam: 8
Donald: 7
Jason: 9

12. Total Zion slam dunks
Sam: 102
Donald: 103
Jason: 110

13. Jack White total minutes
Sam: 401
Donald: 250
Jason: 300

14. How many 100 point games
Sam: 1
Donald: 5
Jason: 4

15. How many individual 30 point games
Sam: 14
Donald: 6
Jason: 12

16. Surprise category! Marques Bolden Total 3 pointers
Sam: 2
Donald: 4
Jason: 12

17. Combined ppg for Zion/RJ
Sam: 43.1
Donald: 46.5
Jason: 44

UrinalCake
11-07-2018, 12:49 AM
Anybody wanna revise their prediction on number of 100-point games? We hit that mark with over 7 minutes left against the #2 team. Donald’s prediction of 10 games from two years ago may be in play. Good times.