PDA

View Full Version : Phase I, 2018-19 season



kAzE
10-30-2018, 11:57 AM
The regular season is here at last! As I’m sure you are all aware, we will be opening the season Tuesday, November 6 in Indianapolis against the loathsome Kentucky Wildcats (I'll be at the game!). Phase I runs from the UK game through the Maui invitational, so it will surely include at least 2 or 3 games against some very high level teams, which should shed quite a bit of light on some of the more pressing questions that we have for this team early in the season:

1. Health
This is my first phase post, but I'll stick with tradition and throw health at the top of the pile. Javin is currently dealing with a stress reaction in one of his feet. That seems to be the only current injury on the roster, as Tre Jones, Cam Reddish, and Alex O’Connell all look to be fully recovered from their pre-season injuries. Notably, Javin has not played many minutes in either of the exhibition contests. Hopefully, this is not something that will need to be managed throughout the season if we are cautious with his usage in the early part of the schedule, in order to avoid any further setbacks. This is not a particularly deep roster, so any injuries to the main rotation players will have significant impact. Tre Jones is probably the one guy who we cannot afford to lose to injury for any amount of time, because his presence significantly raises the ceiling of the team on both ends of the court. I believe Tre and RJ will compete for the most minutes played, as long as both guys stay healthy. Knock on wood!!

2. Marques Bolden
Bolden is the physical manifestation of a question mark, so he gets his own section in this phase post. You just never know what you will get from Marques Bolden. He’s Jekyll & Hyde. When he’s playing at his best, he’s a game-changing force on both ends of the floor. However, as we all witnessed in the 3 Canada games, he also has a very low floor. So which Bolden will we get going forward?

Bolden played 21 minutes in both of the exhibition games, and dominated in both games (first half of the VA Union game aside). It should be expected for a physically dominant big man to excel against this level of competition, but I think Bolden’s level of effort, especially in the Ferris State game was excellent, which is the big thing you want to see from him. He looked engaged and was very active in protecting the rim and knowing his role on offense. He even hit a three pointer, which I don’t think anybody expected to happen in his time at Duke. It’s all about consistency for Bolden. He won’t always play this well, but consistently giving this level of effort, playing good defense without fouling, and having the willingness to be a physical presence every single game will determine if Bolden has a breakout season or yet another disappointing one.

Going forward, I think we can expect to see Bolden in the rotation, though his minutes will probably be subject to the opponent and the match up. If Bolden can give the team 12-18 good, high energy minutes per game, we become a much more versatile team. The very best version of this team requires Marques to be heavily involved. His size, length, and presence in the paint allow him to bring a unique skill set that no one else on the team can match. He will be needed against the best teams in the country.

3. 3 point shooting
If all you saw of this team was the two exhibition games, you would probably think that Duke is a lights out shooting team. In the 2 games against Virginia Union and Ferris State, Duke shot a blistering 24 of 53 from deep, good for 45.3%. However, we were pretty mediocre from deep in all 3 of the Canada games. In Canada, Duke played without Alex O’Connell (who is probably the best pure catch-and-shoot guy we have), Cam Reddish, who has a great looking jumper, and Tre Jones, who isn’t a terrific shooter himself, but is very good at setting teammates up for better looks from 3. So which one of these results is the “real” Duke? It’s probably somewhere in the middle. RJ shot extremely well from deep against Ferris State and VA Union, but his jumper was somewhat off in Canada. He will probably be a bit streaky, but I think we should be mostly fine if we are able to shoot somewhere between 33% and 38% as a team, given how good our best players are at scoring inside the 3 point line.

4. Who is in the rotation?
Even without seeing a single game that counts to this point, there’s very little doubt that the 4 major freshmen will lead the team in minutes. They are going to play all the minutes they can handle. You’ll notice I’m not going to talk very much about those 4 guys here, because this section is about questions heading into this phase, and the only question (in terms of the rotation) is who will fill in the rest of the minutes after them.

Fortunately, with UK and an absolutely loaded Maui Invitational field coming up, we’re going to get answers very soon.

We know Coach K likes to play extremely short rotations in the games that matter, often cutting it down to 7 or sometimes even just 6 guys whom he really trusts, which means there will be minutes for only 2 or 3 more guys in high pressure games. Here are the 4 players who I believe will contend for these minutes:

Marques Bolden: Already discussed at length above, but Marques will obviously be a matchup play against teams with elite size. But I also see him having the shortest leash of any of these guys. Any blunder could land him on the bench in a hurry.

Javin DeLaurier: Despite his limited playing time in the two exhibition games, I still believe Javin is the favorite to be the 5th starter, though that may not happen until he is fully healthy. The coaches seem to be limiting his playing time due to his foot injury, and also possibly trying to boost Bolden’s confidence. When Javin is playing with those 4 freshmen, I believe that will be Duke’s best defensive lineup, and it also allows us to play at a very high pace, which benefits our offensive talent. Both Javin and Coach K have been talking up Javin’s jump shot, but I remain skeptical.

If Javin does develop a jumper, it could open up some new lineup options, such as having him on the floor with Marques, but we’ll need to see much more consistency from Javin’s jump shot before that can even be considered. We’re all still waiting on Amile’s improved jumper, too.

Jack White: Until this season, Jack White has been mostly an afterthought. Most Duke fans probably believed that he would be another Marty Pocius: mainly a practice player, who would see occasional mop up minutes in blow outs. Things have changed for the Aussie in his Junior season, as Coach K has been on record saying that Jack White will play rotation minutes.

I’m a big fan of Jack’s fit with the 4 freshmen starters. He’s always been a no-nonsense type of player who isn’t going to wow you with any particular aspect of his game, but he always makes smart decisions, commits very few mistakes, never needs the ball, and does all of the dirty work. He’s big and strong, more athletic than he looks, and is capable of playing the 3 or 4. The addition of a perimeter jump shot has thrust him into the discussion as a possible rotation player, and his playing time will probably come down to how well he shoots it. Without a reliable jumper, Jack is close to a zero on offense (though he is a good offensive rebounder and a decent passer), so hitting shots will be crucial for him.

Alex O’Connell: Alex has looked pretty good in both exhibition contests, despite playing very few minutes. He’s going to be the best offensive player coming off the bench, and in most cases, would probably be the 6th man. However, considering the elite level of offensive talent we have in the starting lineup, I think Alex is the guy who will get the short end of the stick in some games.

As a wing, he’s competing for minutes with RJ and Cam, who are obviously going to play a LOT. His skill set as a scorer also overlaps heavily with those two guys, so unless one of those guys is on the bench, Alex doesn't add a ton of value to the lineup. You could throw him out there as the 3rd guard with those 2 guys, but Tre Jones is just going to be a better option on the perimeter in that scenario. If you throw him out there with all four of the freshman starters, you end up with an ultra-small lineup with Zion at center and Cam at the 4. I don’t see us resorting to that lineup unless we are trailing by a huge margin and need maximum offense on the floor.

Alex is much more talented than Jack, but I think the way the team was constructed is going to result in Jack playing more minutes, as long as Jack keeps shooting it well. I could be way off here, but that’s just how I see it playing out.

5. Team Chemistry
We always get the coach spiel: “These guys are really connected and are friends on and off the court,” etc. etc., but sometimes, being friends doesn’t always translate to on-court chemistry. Last year’s team was a great example of a team where the pieces didn’t quite fit. I won’t speak to the matter of guys having individual agendas, which Chris Spatola alluded to in the exhibition broadcasts, but there was clearly something that didn’t quite click with last year’s team (even though we were a Grayson bank shot from the Final 4). This year’s team has looked very together thus far, but we will need to see how they deal with adversity before making any judgments.

6. Offense
For the most part, we have looked very good on offense. We probably should always look great on offense against the level of competition we’ve faced thus far, but there are some very encouraging signs that this team will ultimately become a top 10 offense in the country. Even though we haven’t played anyone remotely resembling an elite D1 defense, I think there is generally a high level of confidence in RJ and Zion’s ability to score against elite athletes. Both of those guys are absolute freaks of nature when it comes to playing through contact and getting to the foul line. RJ and Zion will lead the team in scoring, and they will do it very efficiently.

Cam is also an outstanding all-around talent, but has been less aggressive than RJ and Zion, opting instead of to be more of a facilitator and spot up shooter through these 2 exhibition contests. However, I think Cam could also take over a game if needed. All three of them could be legit #1 options on offense for just about any D1 school. That is some serious firepower.

Tre Jones has been everything we had hoped for in a point guard thus far. He's been very sharp so far with his decision making and is as steady as they come. I don't want to put too many expectations on him (as if no one is doing that already, with the constant Tyus comparisons), but I believe we're going to be a very dangerous team come tournament time with a point guard like Tre.

Our assist to made FG ratio against Virginia Union and Ferris St. was 56 to 84 (67%). Last year’s team did very well in this category, assisting on 57.6% of made FGs, but this team appears to be on an even higher level. Before the preseason games, I figured with Tre Jones, Cam Reddish, and RJ Barrett, we would have 3 guys who could initiate the offense and were all good to very good passers. That part has held true, but now I think Zion can also be added to that list. With those 4 guys on the floor, any one of them could grab a rebound and take the ball themselves in transition and make a play for themselves or a teammate. This is an EXCEPTIONAL ball handling and passing team.

I don’t have the possession stats from the two games, but by the eye test, it certainly seems like we will try to play as fast as we possibly can, while also being hyper aggressive on defense to generate turnovers. This team is dominant in transition, scoring 71 points off of turnovers, and 38 fast break points in the 2 exhibition games. Zion, RJ, Javin, and Cam are all dynamic transition finishers, and all 4 freshmen starters are capable of pushing the ball and making the unselfish play to get easy dunks and layups. This has been a relative area of weakness the past few seasons, so in contrast to recent years, there should be more of an emphasis on gambling in the passing lanes to create more turnovers and open court situations.

7. Defense
This is probably the biggest mystery to this point, because it’s hard to tell how good we can be against really good offensive teams when we’ve only played against low level talent. There doesn’t appear to be any question that we will be playing mostly man to man, but the youth of the team is always a limiting factor to effectiveness of the traditional Duke M2M scheme. Getting Javin back to full strength will be a major key for the defense, because he allows us to switch on just about every screen.

Our defense has looked good at times, and also bad at times, especially defending in transition. But overall, we’ve played pretty well, limiting our 2 over matched opponents to a combined 31.9% shooting from the floor, and just 25.6% from three. Though it’s worth pointing out those stats are boosted by the absolute drubbing that we handed Ferris St, who shot just 19 for 74 (6 for 29 from 3).

In the half court, our length and quickness has produced a solid number of steals, and forcing 23 turnovers in both games, but again, these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt due to the level of competition. On an individual level, Zion, RJ, Cam, and Tre are all potentially very good defenders. They all move their feet very well and have great athleticism to pair with solid anticipation skills. Ultimately, the quality of our defense is going to depend on how well the entire team gels as a defensive unit, and also to a large degree, how well Bolden plays, because he is our best rim protector. Javin looks to be the leader of the team defensively, and he should be the most consistent player on that end of the floor.

8. Joey Baker Redshirt?
I did not include Joey Baker as a possible rotation player, but if he decides to play this year, rather than take a redshirt, he is definitely in the mix, as a wing forward with some offensive upside. He’s also a nice insurance policy if anyone (God forbid) has to miss some time. Most of us assumed all offseason that Joey would redshirt, but after having seen him play quite well in Canada, and get some good minutes in these exhibition games, I would not be surprised if Joey ends up playing this year in a very small “Grayson Allen freshmen year” type of role, that can potentially grow if necessary.

9. Youth and Inexperience
Once again, this will be youngest Duke team of all time. This was also the case last year, and we nearly had a Final Four team, so I think in the long term, our youth should not be too great of a concern. There will be some freshman mistakes, and surely some frustrating losses along the way, but we should all have confidence that Coach K will have these guys ready to compete at the highest levels when it really matters.

This season's team looks to be one of the most talented Duke teams of all time, with 3 guys who have a chance to become NBA All-Stars at some point in their careers. With versatility and elite talent at every position, and a true point guard running the offense, the potential of this team is through the roof. Let's get #6! GO DUKE!!!

I'm going to wrap up my portion of the post there, but my partner for this phase post, CDu, should continue this discussion with his analysis of our games and match ups during this phase some time later this week, so look forward to that :)

Billy Dat
10-30-2018, 02:11 PM
Great effort, kAzE.

I am immediately interested in the following aspects of these categories:

-Offense/Chemistry
Does a natural pecking order get established? Right now, it seems like we are hunting mismatches with RJ and Zion in full attack mode when they spot one. I really want to see how Cam meshes with those guys and how he balances scoring with passing. I, too, am hoping we can connect on 35%+ from 3.

-Bolden
I was definitely throwing dirt on him after Canada, but I, too, have seen a change in him these past two games akin to what you describe. I also think his hands have suddenly gotten better. I think it's telling that he wasn't named a Captain, but there are signs of life!

Finally, I always like to watch K. The end is coming, enjoy him fully while we can.

jv001
10-30-2018, 02:50 PM
Good job Kaze on your Phase I post. Just a couple of observations:

Javin: I want to see the junior captain stay out of foul trouble and most of all I want to see him healthy. He has a chance to be a great addition to our rotation because Javin has the tools to be a great defender. Anything he can add to the offense is the cherry on top of the pie.


Bolden: Another player I hope can play injury free this season. So far in his Duke career, we don't know just how good he can be.


Looking forward to the tipoff. GoDuke!

Bob Green
10-30-2018, 05:42 PM
8. Joey Baker Redshirt?

...I would not be surprised if Joey ends up playing this year in a very small “Grayson Allen freshmen year” type of role, that can potentially grow if necessary.



kAzE guarantees a National Championship in his very first Phase post! :rolleyes:

Newton_14
10-30-2018, 07:08 PM
kAzE guarantees a National Championship in his very first Phase post! :rolleyes:

Good one Bob! And great post Kaze!! Very nicely done for your first ever Phase Post!

Regarding Baker... the kid has chops but I don't see him playing much if at all once conference play starts. Too many guys in front of him at his position. He struggled on defense in both exhibition games especially guarding the ball. I like his chops and his offensive abilities though. Tough as nails with better hops than I expected and a sweet stroke. He is a year away from playing in the tough games though.

duketaylor
10-30-2018, 09:21 PM
I'm kinda getting the feeling that K uses Bolden like testing if a spaghetti noodle's done, throw him/one out there and see if he/it sticks. Certainly a short leash, but at least give him some 1st half action to see if he's brought his better game. Then adjust from there. And I'm talking about giving him 4/5 minutes (or more) in each 1st half, not just once or twice. Gonna be an interesting Tuesday night with it also being election day!!

Kedsy
10-30-2018, 11:00 PM
Nice first Phase post, kAzE. Well done.


That seems to be the only current injury on the roster...

I thought I heard Cam was playing with a broken rib. Is that not true?


I don’t have the possession stats from the two games...

76.6 possessions against Virginia Union and 85.9 possessions against Ferris State. Fast and (way) faster.


7. Defense
This is probably the biggest mystery to this point, because it’s hard to tell how good we can be against really good offensive teams when we’ve only played against low level talent.

I agree we can't tell, and even the advanced stats aren't worth much here, due to the low level of competition. But my eye test likes what I'm seeing on the defensive end. I'm cautiously optimistic.


9. Youth and Inexperience
Once again, this will be youngest Duke team of all time. This was also the case last year, and we nearly had a Final Four team, so I think in the long term, our youth should not be too great of a concern.

Again, I agree. I'm not concerned about this at all. The totality of a player's basketball ability is a combination of talent and experience. These frosh are so talented, that they're up there with anyone regardless of experience. And probably the most important thing you get from experience -- the ability to know what to do without thinking about it -- isn't really a factor with the extremely high basketball IQ these guys have displayed so far. As far as the tired trope that freshmen can't play defense, I don't agree in general and specifically (as I said above) so far I'm pleased with what I'm seeing on the defensive end.

Honestly, my biggest concern for this team is health. If any of our top four guys get hurt for any length of time (I'm knocking furiously on what appears to be wood veneer), we're a completely different team, and not in a good way.

kAzE
10-31-2018, 12:17 PM
I thought I heard Cam was playing with a broken rib. Is that not true?

Yes, my bad . . . I probably should have noted this. Cam sustained a "displaced fracture to the tenth rib" on Oct. 16, about 2 weeks ago, and he has been playing/practicing through that issue, as soon as 3 days after the injury. He also had a foot/ankle issue earlier in the off season which prevented him from playing in the Canada games, but it is something that he has now fully recovered from.

On the plus side, he didn't appear to be limited in any way in the 3 games (CTC included) we have seen him play. He played 46 minutes in the two exhibition games, which was 4th on the team after Tre, RJ and Zion. Cam attempted 14 free throws against Ferris State, so he clearly wasn't avoiding contact or playing any differently than he normally would.

It will definitely be something to monitor going forward, but it doesn't seem like something that will affect his availability for the season opener.


Honestly, my biggest concern for this team is health. If any of our top four guys get hurt for any length of time (I'm knocking furiously on what appears to be wood veneer), we're a completely different team, and not in a good way.

Yeah, absolutely. That's why health is always #1.

However, I think Alex could probably fill in for a game or two if RJ or Cam has to miss time for any reason. Obviously, it's still a step down, but the one place where we do have some quality depth is on the wing.

If Zion or Tre has to miss any games, we would be in some trouble. I think Cam would probably have to play some power forward if Zion is out, and while I do like Goldwire as Tre's backup, he's not really someone who I would feel comfortable running the show against ACC teams.

Troublemaker
10-31-2018, 12:40 PM
Excellent Phase post, kAzE! Sometimes the sign of a nice Phase post is that there isn't much to say in response because you've said it all or close to all.

The only thing I'll add re: defense, having watched the Ferris St game last night, is that we're varying how we're playing ball screens based on whether Marques or Javin is in the game. With Marques, we're hard-hedging, and with Javin, we're icing or switching. That's... sensible. While I probably still prefer a deep drop when Marques is in the game, he has sometimes shown some good hedging skills over the past couple of years. And Javin should be able to handle his responsibilities as well.

Billy Dat
10-31-2018, 02:20 PM
This Ringer article is a good complement to this Phase post

"This Year’s Duke Basketball Team Is a Coach K Greatest Hits Compilation"
With arguably the greatest recruiting class of all time, headlined by Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, and Cam Reddish, the Blue Devils could look more like an Olympic superteam than an average blue-chip team in the one-and-done era

https://www.theringer.com/college-basketball/2018/10/30/18040388/duke-zion-williamson-rj-barrett-cam-reddish

"There’s no way to know what Zion, Barrett, and Reddish will become at the next level, but their skill sets fit perfectly with the direction the sport is headed. An NBA team with all three might be the best team in the league in a decade. They have the chance to do something special as teenagers. They might not be on another team with this much talent for a long time."

HereBeforeCoachK
10-31-2018, 03:36 PM
Y
However, I think Alex could probably fill in for a game or two if RJ or Cam has to miss time for any reason. Obviously, it's still a step down, but the one place where we do have some quality depth is on the wing.

If Zion or Tre has to miss any games, we would be in some trouble.

I agree with these assessments...as Tre is the only pure point guard on the roster that has big time skill, and Zion is the only thing like Zion on our roster, or anywhere on the planet for that matter.

Billy Dat
11-01-2018, 08:56 AM
The more I inhale preseason coverage, the more I am getting concerned about a potential Phase category to track....

HYPE
This year's freshman class is REALLY being lauded....the best class since the Fab Five, RJ Player of the Year Favorite, RJ, Zion and Cam no doubt top 5 projected NBA draft picks etc. etc. By setting these insane expectations, there is surely to be a backlash when they stumble. Are they strong enough mentally to handle all the attention?

AGDukesky
11-01-2018, 09:27 AM
The more I inhale preseason coverage, the more I am getting concerned about a potential Phase category to track...

HYPE
This year's freshman class is REALLY being lauded...the best class since the Fab Five, RJ Player of the Year Favorite, RJ, Zion and Cam no doubt top 5 projected NBA draft picks etc. etc. By setting these insane expectations, there is surely to be a backlash when they stumble. Are they strong enough mentally to handle all the attention?

I think this is a good point. Zion and R.J. seem like the kind of personalities who can handle it but playing at Duke with all the scrutiny will be a whole new level. It might not be the worst thing if this team stumbled early (well, for the players) to lower expectations and remove any entitlement. Still, I really like the makeup of this team and think we have the right combination of skill, drive and confidence to handle the pressure.

English
11-02-2018, 05:17 PM
Great post, KaZe, and corresponding sporks have been distributed.

Givony, ESPN's resident NBA draft guru and quasi scout, has released his updated (or new) 2019 NBA draft prospects list--it seems our team claims three of the top-4 prospects (and Tobacco Road lays claim to four of the top-4). http://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable (also, Tre Jones is listed at No. 53)

A couple of points to add--one from the article, one I think could be added to the P1 post:

- The scouting report notes that all three of our top guys (Tre Jones excluded, despite being one of the, if not the single, most important players on the team) have the ability to be plus-defenders. Cam's notes, as we've all heard, he's prone to lapses of effort, but let's withhold judgment on that.

- The other nugget that, I think, deserves some attention: free throw shooting. Everyone mentions 3-pt shooting as a potential area for improvement (or weakness, if you don't want to be diplomatic), but I think as important is whether this team will be average or above-average at the stripe. I'm too lazy to double check FT percentages for our likely top minute-getters, but I recall mostly in the 60s (RJ & Zion). I doubt that climbs with Javin and Marques. That could be a point of concern/frustration for us armchair analysts watching this team. Just throwing it out there.

Billy Dat
11-03-2018, 09:26 AM
4. Who is in the rotation?
As a wing, he’s (AOC) competing for minutes with RJ and Cam, who are obviously going to play a LOT. His skill set as a scorer also overlaps heavily with those two guys, so unless one of those guys is on the bench, Alex doesn't add a ton of value to the lineup. You could throw him out there as the 3rd guard with those 2 guys, but Tre Jones is just going to be a better option on the perimeter in that scenario. If you throw him out there with all four of the freshman starters, you end up with an ultra-small lineup with Zion at center and Cam at the 4. I don’t see us resorting to that lineup unless we are trailing by a huge margin and need maximum offense on the floor.


I almost feel like this concept needs it's own Phase segment.....ZION AT THE 5

Will K give the NBA draftniks want they want and go small ball with Zion at the 5? Would AOC be the logical 5th man in that rotation, or would Jack? The exhibition games were such routes that I didn't really pay attention to see how often, if it all, he played line-ups with Zion but without Marquese or Javin (or JRob).

kAzE
11-03-2018, 08:37 PM
I almost feel like this concept needs it's own Phase segment....ZION AT THE 5

Will K give the NBA draftniks want they want and go small ball with Zion at the 5? Would AOC be the logical 5th man in that rotation, or would Jack? The exhibition games were such routes that I didn't really pay attention to see how often, if it all, he played line-ups with Zion but without Marquese or Javin (or JRob).

It certainly is something to watch. I think the more center Zion plays, the more minutes there are for Alex.

MChambers
11-03-2018, 09:16 PM
It certainly is something to watch. I think the more center Zion plays, the more minutes there are for Alex.

And the more open the court becomes for Duke’s slashers. Plus, Coach K tends to go small when the going gets tough (although can any lineup with Zion be called small?).

NSDukeFan
11-04-2018, 05:56 AM
And the more open the court becomes for Duke’s slashers. Plus, Coach K tends to go small when the going gets tough (although can any lineup with Zion be called small?).

When Zion has the ball, it looks really small, hence “small ball.”

kAzE
11-08-2018, 03:23 PM
Hmm . . . CDu was supposed to post something here before the UK game, but I haven't heard from him at all since the beginning of last week.

Hopefully everything is OK with him. Especially hope he was able to watch that Kentucky game, because damn that was fun.

azzefkram
11-08-2018, 03:34 PM
Nice post Kaze.

While I'd hardly say it is definitive, I think after Tuesday we can say all signs point to yes for Q#8.

kAzE
11-08-2018, 04:14 PM
Nice post Kaze.

While I'd hardly say it is definitive, I think after Tuesday we can say all signs point to yes for Q#8.

Coach K was asked about Joey specifically in the post-game presser. He kind of avoided answering the question directly, and instead talked about how Jack and Alex played really well.

I think he was implying that if Jack and Alex continue to do what they did against Kentucky off the bench, and (knock on wood again) nobody gets hurt, then Joey will probably redshirt.

And I'll win a pie bet. (Jack vs Joey Baker, total minutes)

CDu
11-19-2018, 02:15 PM
So, first of all, thanks to kAzE for taking care of the primary effort on the Phase I report, and doing a great job of it. The original plan was for kAzE to prepare the key questions (which he did) and for me to break down the opponents' squads for the phase (which I have not done until now).

Secondly, I apologize for the delay in my contributions. Between work travel and me trying frantically to wrap up the final steps in becoming Dr. CDu (of the Ph variety, not the M or J variety), I've just not had a break long enough to do my part.

With that said, here is a breakdown of the three most likely opponents in the Maui Invitational. Starting with the only of the three that we are guaranteed to play (San Diego State).

San Diego State (2-0, KenPom #57)

The Aztecs are a defensive-minded team that is just okay offensively. They are a relatively (for a mid-major type of school) young team, though they are talented. Their backcourt is experienced, which helps, and they have a lot of bigs to rotate. But it isn't a terribly deep team by any means.

Center: The Aztecs don't start a true center, favoring a guard/heavy lineup with two forwards. They do bring three centers off the bench though. Freshman Nathan Mensah (6'10", 225lb from Ghana) gets the most minutes of their 3-headed backup center monster. Mensah is tall, lanky, and athletic. He is a very good shotblocker but rebounds just okay (as is common for shotblockers). Mensah is a freshman, and as such he may prove to be foul prone against better competition (the Aztecs have played a couple of bad teams so far). Behind Mensah is Nolan Narain (6'10", 230lb redshirt junior from Canada). Narain was a 3-star recruit out of high school, so he had some expectations. But injuries and bad luck have limited his career to this point, with just over 300 minutes played coming into this year. He is a good athlete and has range out to the 3pt line. He's quite foul prone though, as evidenced by his 5 fouls in just 24 minutes this year. The third center coming off the bench is Joel Mensah (6'10", 215lb freshman from Ghana). Ironically, the two are not related (at least not closely related). The lesser Mensah is a rawer, skinnier, less talented version of Nathan Mensah. He plays sparingly, and will be overmatched if he sees the floor against us.

Forwards: The Aztecs are quite talented and diverse at forward. The starters exemplify this by themselves. Jalen McDaniels (6'10", 195lb sophomore) is the headliner, a long, lanky combo forward somewhat reminiscent of Jonathan Isaac from FSU. McDaniels uses his length to score and rebound inside, but he's not a bad shooter from the perimeter (50% on 4 3s so far and shot 78.8% from the FT line last year). McDaniels flirted with the NBA last year, and may very well go pro next summer. He is certainly on NBA scouts' radars. Paired with McDaniels long and lean is the short (relatively) and stout Matt Mitchell (6'6", 240lb soph). Despite the differences in their frames, Mitchell's production is actually really comparable to McDaniels' other than rebounding. Both are extremely active and athletic (in different ways), and both are highly productive players. I'd guess that Mitchell will get the dubious honor of guarding Williamson given his size and athleticism. This will be one of the few times where Williamson will be matched up on a guy who isn't totally overwhelmed by either his size or athleticism. Don't get me wrong: Williamson is still notably better in all aspects (skills, strength, athleticism), but it's not as big of a mismatch as most of his matchups will be. Both McDaniels and Mitchell are also capable passers, second and third on the team in assists. Behind these two (aside from the triad of centers) is freshman Aguek Arop (6'6", 220lb). Arop is a low-skilled, high energy/effort guy who rebounds and fouls well but provides little else.

Wings: Jordan Schakel (6'6", 200lb soph) leads the wing group for the Aztecs. Schakel is a shooter first and foremost. He's not very skilled at putting the ball on the floor or passing, but he can certainly hit the 3. If SDSU gives us trouble, his 3pt shot may have a fair amount to do with it. Alongside Schakel is Jeremy Helmsley (6'3", 175lb senior). Helmsley is a good shooter and a very experienced player, having passed the 1,000 point career mark last year for the Aztecs. He's another guy who can hit the open 3, and isn't terrible with the ball in his hands either. Helmsley will give some assistance in running the offense in the rare moments when their PG needs a break.

Guards: The guy that runs the show is Devin Watson (6'1", 185lb senior transfer from San Fran). Watson is a score-first PG who is capable of scoring at all 3 levels. He's not the most careful with the ball, but he's capable of wowing with passes when he is is dialed in. The danger for him is trying to do too much, especially in a matchup against a much more talented opponent. But Watson is a terrific player and capable of punishing a young defense. Behind Watson is Adam Seiko (6'3", 195lb frosh). Seiko doesn't play much (Watson rarely exits), but he's a tenacious defender and really strong and athletic. He's pretty much a nonfactor as a scorer, but can impact the game in other ways when he's in there.

I'll add the profiles for Auburn (our likely second-round opponent), Gonzaga (a potential championship game opponent if we're fortunate), and Arizona (if we wind up in the 3rd-place game) shortly.

CDu
11-19-2018, 03:02 PM
So, it's a bit silly that our likely second-round opponent is Auburn. That's a bit of an oopsy by the bracket makers, and probably one of laziness in looking at the names on the front of the jersey only. They are easily the 2nd or 3rd best team in this field, and a legitimate top-10 team. Considering that we should realistically be the top seed, the rightful game 2 in our bracket would have been Arizona (who looks to be in for a down year). But, alas...

Auburn is good. They are well-coached, experienced, and talented. They have size and have good scoring punch from the perimeter. They'll be a tough opponent if we face them. The Tigers play fast and well on both ends of the floor. They are a legitimate Final Four threat.

Centers: like San Diego State, Auburn doesn't actually start a center. But they have a very talented one coming off the bench. Austin Wiley (6'11", 260lb redshirt sophomore) almost went to the NBA this past summer, but given the strength of that class he wisely chose to return). Wiley has had an interesting college career: a former top-20 recruit, he graduated high school early and enrolled for the spring at Aubrn in 2017, giving the Tigers a productive freshman season. He was expected to be a major part of their team last year, but was ruled ineligible for the season. Then, he put his name in the NBA draft before ultimately withdrawing. So, here he is, unexpectedly still in college. He's gotten off to a slow start this year, but the talent is there. Wiley is long and skilled around the basket, and is a decent shotblocker. He's a bit weak on the glass given his size, but he's an NBA talent for sure. The Tigers don't really play another center.

Forwards: The Tigers have a solid trio of forwards led by Chuma Okeke (6'8", 230lb soph). Okeke is a bit of a do-everything guy for the Tigers. He's strong and athletic, but is also a very good perimeter shooter. Though he doesn't lead the Tigers in any category, Okeke is top-3 in pretty much all of them. Along with Okeke are Anfernee McLemore (6'7", 220lb junior) and Horace Spencer (6'8", 225lb senior). McLemore is a high-energy, highly athletic, dirty work guy. He does, however, have a bit of range, hitting 18 3s last year. But his calling card is shotblocking and rebounding, both of which he does at a really high level. Spencer is even more rugged but less skilled. He leads the team in rebounding, but any shots he takes more than 5 feet from the rim are... questionable.

Wings: The Tigers have a trio of talented wings as well. Bryce Brown (6'3", 195lb senior) is the headliner. Brown is a good all-around guard, playing well on both ends of the floor. He flirted with the NBA last spring as well, but returned to school. There is a good chance he'll wind up the team's leading scorer this year. He gets most of his buckets from the perimeter, shooting over 37% for his career from 3. Samir Doughty (6'4", 195lb junior transfer from VCU) is currently their leading scorer. He is a good ballhandler and is strong at driving to the rim. However, he appears to have developed into a decent 3pt threat (41.7% so far this year), which if it holds makes him extremely dangerous. He is also a ballhawk, averaging 2.3 steals per game in just over 20mpg so far. Terrific athlete who appears to be finding his skills with age. Last but not necessarily least is Malik Dunbar (6'6", 230lb senior JuCo transfer). Dunbar is more of a wing forward than the other two, who are more combo guards. He's big and physical. I don't doubt that he'll see some time guarding Williamson as well. Dunbar is far less skilled than his smaller wing teammates, getting most of his buckets from his size/athleticism/tenacity rather than finesse.

Guards: The guy that makes the engine run is Jared Hunter (5'11", 175lb junior). Hunter is small but very skilled and athletic. He's dynamic with the ball in his hands and is a terrific passer. He's also a streaky but capable 3pt shooter. The biggest weakness in Hunter's game is that he isn't a strong finisher inside the arc. But he draws fouls and hits enough from deep and does so well running the offense that this is a minor quibble. He's a really talented PG. Technically, Brown will provide a lot of the lifting as a backup PG, but the nominal backup is J'Von McCormick (6'0", 175lb junior JuCo transfer). McCormick is athletic and a pesky defender, but less polished offensively. He'll play a smaller role as a fill-in as needed for the Tigers, who will play 8-9 deep as Bruce Pearl likes to be aggressive.

CDu
11-19-2018, 03:40 PM
So the third part in this installment is the Zags. As always, Mark Few has put together a terrific team with players from all over the globe. This year's installment is led by his latest and most far-reaching find from Japan. It is impressive how far Few goes outside of the normal recruiting circles to fill out his squads.

The Zags are coming off a bittersweet season in which they were upset in the Sweet-16 by FSU. They return a very talented, experienced team that has added a few new faces to the mix. They are extremely well-coached and effective on both ends of the floor. It's an impressive group that Few has put together this year, although we won't see it at full-strength in Maui (more on that later). If they were healthy, I'd basically guarantee they'd reach the final considering their bracket. Even still, I'd be shocked if they don't make it to the championship game. They're really good.

Centers: Stop me if you've heard this before, but Gonzaga doesn't play a true center in their starting lineup. They don't really even have one on the roster at all. They will have a trio of very talented PFs though that will share time against opposing centers as needed.

Forwards: The star of the forward group is Rui Hachimura (6'8", 230lb junior from Japan). Hachimura is a talented low-block scorer with range and versatility, although his 3pt shot needs work. But he's absolutely dynamic inside the arc, and Gonzaga will rely heavily on him for scoring. Especially since their other veteran star Killian Tillie (6'10" 220lb junior from France) is out for several weeks. Tillie is the yin to Hachimura's yang, providing a fabulous threat from 3pt range (nearly 48% career from outside the arc). The two will be a terrific one-two punch for Gonzaga once Tillie returns, and their size and versatility allow Gonzaga to compete with the big boys. In Tillie's place is Brandon Clarke (6'8", 230lb junior transfer from San Diego St, coincidentally enough). Clarke is a high-energy, highly-athletic forward who does al the dirty work. He will lead the team in rebounds, blocks, and probably dunks this year. He's not nearly as skilled as the other two forwards, but he's a dynamo athletically and a high-effort player that gets results through hard work. The third in the foreign triumvirate of Bulldog forwards is Filip Petrusev (6'11", 225lb frosh from Serbia). Petrusev is sort of a less polished version of Tillie, quite capable of hitting the three.

Wings: The Bulldogs are really strong at the starting wing spots with Zach Norvell, Jr (6'5", 205lb soph) and Corey Kispert (6'6", 215lb soph). Norvell, Jr is the NBA prospect, a complete weapon as a wing scorer. Strong, athletic, a good shooter, and extremely confident, he's a dynamic scorer who will be unlikely to stay four years. Norvell is also a strong rebounder for a guard/wing. There isn't much this guy can't do well. Kispert is sort of a poor man's Kyle Singler: smart, rugged, high-IQ player that gets the most out of his athletic ability. He isn't nearly as talented as Singler was obviously, but that's kind of the image I have of him. A hard player not to like if he's on your team. Good role player with a good 3pt shot. Rounding out the wings is Jeremy Jones (6'5", 205lb senior transfer from Rice). Jones is a true role player whose job is to provide energy and defense, and he provides little if anything offensively. He'll play sparingly and only in case of emergency, as the Zags can role out any combination of their wings, forwards, and combo guards instead.

Guards: Josh Perkins (6'3", 190lb redshirt senior) is the team captain and leader. He has been a steady player seemingly since day one in Spokane, though in more of a supporting role in previous years. Last year, he stepped into the spotlight a bit more, and continued his solid though unspectacular play. This year, he's off to a good start everywhere but 3pt range, though I expect that to come around as he's been roughly a 40% 3pt shooter most of his career. He'll play 30+ minutes and run the show for the Zags, and he's one of the better PGs in all of college basketball. He won't wow you in any phase of the game, but his size, strength, and skills are evident in totality. Just a solid, talented veteran PG. And as a bonus, he's quite capable of playing off the ball as well. Behind him is Geno Crandall (6'3", 175lb grad transfer from North Dakota). Crandall was a star at UND, as a lead guard he impressed enough to get a spot on the Zags. He's a great change of pace for Perkins, and the Zags don't really miss a beat whenever Perkins needs to sit, or when they want to give Perkins a break from running the offense.

The Zags have the talent, the experience, and the versatility to make a deep run into March/April. They won't be at full strength in this tournament, unfortunately. But they'll still be a tough out for anyone in the field, and likely will play for the title in spite of being short-handed.

Saratoga2
11-23-2018, 08:19 AM
Well phase I is over and on we move. One aspect that became clear in Phase I is that White is the ist sub at the wing/SF position and that O'Connell will be getting token minutes in competitive games which includes all of the ACC games and the Indiana and Texas Tech games. Clearly Zion, Cam and RJ were always ahead of Jack and Alex but Jack's play through Phase I showed him as able to provide much needed defense and rebounding and a modicum of stability to the team. Too bad for Alex in a way as he can provide mid range and 3 point shooting which is also needed on this team.

Alex is now listed at 6'6" and 183#, has length, quickness, a decent handle, shoots well, has good hops and does get in for rebounds and deflects passes well on defense. Otherwise, a good fit for big guard or wing. On another ACC team he might well get significant minutes or even start. Probably not for Duke, barring injuries or something else unforseen. Joey Baker is in same boat, only less experienced and behind Alex and probably a red shirt at the end of the season.

I'm interested in Alex so looked at his strengths and weaknesses offensively and defensively and asked myself what he might do differently to become a more effective player as the season wears on.

Offensively he is like Cam, RJ and Zion in that he can bring the ball up the floor quickly and can usually make decent passes. He doesn't have the drive to take the ball directly to the basket as the others might but he does have an above aaverage pull up jumper and 3 point shot, something Zion, RJ and Jack don't have as much of at this point.

What I find to be negative about Alex offense is that he will get the ball and instead of making a feint towards the basket or looking to get the ball inside, he quickly passes back to his teammate without putting pressure on the defense. Alex is too deferential and needs to be coached into trying to create opportunities. Its hard to fault his teammate when he ignores him in the offense as what Alex does just tends to waste clock.

Defensively, coach K has indicated that Alex is making mistakes and he sees him as somewhat of a liability on the floor at this point. I watched him closely when he is in the game and don't see as much of a problem there. Cam and RJ are having more lapses than I see from Alex and it is to be expected as they are true freshmen. Alex seems to play his man closely, switches well, gets his hands on passes and isn't afraid to stick his nose in on rebounds.

So I see Alex relegated to token minutes again this year although a significant contributor in following years provided he stays.

jv001
11-23-2018, 12:04 PM
Well phase I is over and on we move. One aspect that became clear in Phase I is that White is the ist sub at the wing/SF position and that O'Connell will be getting token minutes in competitive games which includes all of the ACC games and the Indiana and Texas Tech games. Clearly Zion, Cam and RJ were always ahead of Jack and Alex but Jack's play through Phase I showed him as able to provide much needed defense and rebounding and a modicum of stability to the team. Too bad for Alex in a way as he can provide mid range and 3 point shooting which is also needed on this team.

Alex is now listed at 6'6" and 183#, has length, quickness, a decent handle, shoots well, has good hops and does get in for rebounds and deflects passes well on defense. Otherwise, a good fit for big guard or wing. On another ACC team he might well get significant minutes or even start. Probably not for Duke, barring injuries or something else unforseen. Joey Baker is in same boat, only less experienced and behind Alex and probably a red shirt at the end of the season.

I'm interested in Alex so looked at his strengths and weaknesses offensively and defensively and asked myself what he might do differently to become a more effective player as the season wears on.

Offensively he is like Cam, RJ and Zion in that he can bring the ball up the floor quickly and can usually make decent passes. He doesn't have the drive to take the ball directly to the basket as the others might but he does have an above aaverage pull up jumper and 3 point shot, something Zion, RJ and Jack don't have as much of at this point.

What I find to be negative about Alex offense is that he will get the ball and instead of making a feint towards the basket or looking to get the ball inside, he quickly passes back to his teammate without putting pressure on the defense. Alex is too deferential and needs to be coached into trying to create opportunities. Its hard to fault his teammate when he ignores him in the offense as what Alex does just tends to waste clock.

Defensively, coach K has indicated that Alex is making mistakes and he sees him as somewhat of a liability on the floor at this point. I watched him closely when he is in the game and don't see as much of a problem there. Cam and RJ are having more lapses than I see from Alex and it is to be expected as they are true freshmen. Alex seems to play his man closely, switches well, gets his hands on passes and isn't afraid to stick his nose in on rebounds.

So I see Alex relegated to token minutes again this year although a significant contributor in following years provided he stays.

I think Alex will be able to take the ball to the basket once he gains strength. He does seem heavier than last season but still not very strong. That's not the case for RJ, Cam and certainly Zion. Like you, I want to see Alex succeed at Duke. GoDuke!