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JasonEvans
10-26-2018, 01:41 PM
I saw a couple films this week that are going to be in the Oscar conversation. I figured I would start a thread to talk about these and other contenders for big awards.

The first was Can You Ever Forgive Me with Melissa McCarthy. It is the true story of washed up writer Lee Israel who turns to a life of forging celebrity letters when she can no longer get paid for her own novels. It also stars Richard Grant as her best friend/co-conspirator. The film is a little dry and slow, but the acting is crazy good. Richard Grant is off the charts and, I think, almost certain to get a Best Supporting Actor nod. It helps that he is playing a gay character who eventually gets AIDS, which will engender a good bit of sympathy from Oscar voters. The film has a few comic moments, but is largely a serious piece and McCarthy really shows she can transition from slapstick to being a real actress in this role. It probably isn't going to be a Best Picture contender, I don't think, but is a fine film and well worth seeing if you are into more than slashers and music bios (which is what we primarily have at the boxoffice right now). It is in very limited release at the moment, but should be coming to more art house theaters in coming weeks. Check it out.

https://static.rogerebert.com/uploads/review/primary_image/reviews/can-you-ever-forgive-me-2018/hero_can-forgive-image-3.jpg


I also got a really, really, really early look at The Favourite, from Yorgos Lanthimos. Yorgos is the director of The Lobster and The Killing of a Sacred Deer. This film is the closest Yorgos has come to something a little more mainstream and I really think it could get some Best Picture attention. It tells the story of Queen Anne (played amazingly by Olivia Coleman -- likely to get a Best Actress nod, though they may put her in Supporting category -- either way, she's fabulous) who was a weak and easily influenced monarch. At her right hand, really running the country, was Sarah Marlborough (played by Rachel Weisz). Sarah takes in a fallen former lady, Abagail (Emma Stone), but is horrified when Abagail becomes her rival for the Queen's ear. The film reminded me, at times, of Dangerous Liasons because it is a period piece where everyone is using sex as a weapon. But, it is a far superior film with much more nuanced characters and a really clever script with some brilliant moments. It is the kind of film where your allegiance to the characters is constantly shifting. Plus, Yorgos does some truly remarkable things with the camera, using a fish-eye lens at times to offer a skewed view of the world these royals inhabit. The movie also features simply amazing sets. The Favourite does not open until early December, but be on the look out for it. Weisz and Stone are great, though I don't think they will quite get Oscar nods... hard to say at this point.

Here is a trailer for The Favourite:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYb-wkehT1g

By the way, this is a good time to get to know Olivia Coleman as she is about to take over the lead on The Crown. As they age Queen Elizabeth, Claire Foy cannot play her any longer so the role is moving to Coleman. If this film is any indication, she's going to knock it out of the park.

https://www.indiewire.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-04-at-9.03.15-AM.png?w=780

-Jason "it has been a good week to go to the movies with Jason ;) " Evans

pfrduke
10-29-2018, 12:17 PM
Olivia Colman (no e) was really good in Broadchurch. That series also featured Jodie Whittaker, current Dr. Who, and David Tennant, former Dr. Who. Very strong acting across the board in that one.

duke79
10-29-2018, 03:37 PM
Any chance Robert Redford gets a nomination (best actor) for his role in "Old man and the gun"?? Supposedly, his last acting role in films. Will the Academy feel a sense of loyalty and obligation to him?

JasonEvans
10-29-2018, 04:09 PM
Any chance Robert Redford gets a nomination (best actor) for his role in "Old man and the gun"?? Supposedly, his last acting role in films. Will the Academy feel a sense of loyalty and obligation to him?

I have not see the film yet, but I expect to fairly soon. He is getting great reviews and he has never gotten an Oscar for his acting. In fact, he's only been nominated for acting once for The Sting in 1973. He has won an Oscar for directing Ordinary People, but it is sorta hard to believe he only has one acting nomination in his career.

I think there is a decent chance he gets a nomination, but Best Actor is always a loaded category. Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Remi Malek (Bohemian Rap), and Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) look like the main competitors right now.

BD80
10-29-2018, 09:21 PM
Olivia Colman (no e) was really good in Broadchurch. That series also featured Jodie Whittaker,...

Wasn't that the male twin in "Family Affair?"

luburch
11-01-2018, 07:07 AM
Saw Beautiful Boy last night. When I originally saw the trailer a few months back, I thought it would be a good chance for Carell or Chalamet to earn a nod. The movie was good (albeit a bit long) and both actors put in a wonderful performance, but I don't think it's enough for a nomination. :(

JasonEvans
11-01-2018, 08:03 AM
Saw Beautiful Boy last night. When I originally saw the trailer a few months back, I thought it would be a good chance for Carell or Chalamet to earn a nod. The movie was good (albeit a bit long) and both actors put in a wonderful performance, but I don't think it's enough for a nomination. :(

Yeah, that seems to be the consensus. It is at just 68% on Rotten Tomatoes and though everyone says the acting is the best part of this flick. As I mentioned above, the Best Actor category is really full this year and it seems like Best Supporting Actor is always a brutal field. I'd say the BSA field is likely to include Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Richard Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), and Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born). Chalamet is in the conversation for the final couple spots, I think.

luburch
11-01-2018, 09:13 AM
Yeah, that seems to be the consensus. It is at just 68% on Rotten Tomatoes and though everyone says the acting is the best part of this flick. As I mentioned above, the Best Actor category is really full this year and it seems like Best Supporting Actor is always a brutal field. I'd say the BSA field is likely to include Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Richard Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), and Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born). Chalamet is in the conversation for the final couple spots, I think.

I'm not sure where John David Washington and Adam Driver would fall in the BA/BSA fields, but they were both outstanding in BlacKkKlansman. Stiff competition this year.

A-Tex Devil
11-01-2018, 07:17 PM
Wait. First Reformed is good? I know what I am doing Friday night. Seemed like just an average straight to ITunes movie based on preview.

And I thought Bohemian Rhapsody was getting largely “meh” reviews. Seems like that would torpedo a best actor Oscar nod.

JasonEvans
11-02-2018, 10:06 AM
Wait. First Reformed is good? I know what I am doing Friday night. Seemed like just an average straight to ITunes movie based on preview.
93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Everyone says it is the best acting of Ethan Hawke's career.


And I thought Bohemian Rhapsody was getting largely “meh” reviews. Seems like that would torpedo a best actor Oscar nod.
Yes, that does make it more difficult, but the complaints about the movie largely fall into the way the story is told while everyone says the acting is strong. I don't think Remi Malek can win, but he could get a nomination. I think he is very likely to at least get a Golden Globe nomination assuming they find a way to put the film in the Comedy/Musical category, which will be an easier field than Drama. If it has a lot of music, does that make it a musical? Might be a tough sell because I suspect A Star if Born will be in the Drama category and the two films use music in nearly identical ways.

-Jason "it is still really early to have more than a general sense of Oscar contenders... I've probably seen no more than 1/5 of the films/performances that will be in the conversation for major Academy Awards" Evans

Blue in the Face
11-02-2018, 10:35 AM
Wait. First Reformed is good? I know what I am doing Friday night. Seemed like just an average straight to ITunes movie based on preview.

I liked it quite a bit.

JasonEvans
12-02-2018, 11:05 AM
Reviving this thread, which will become increasingly busy in coming weeks as Awards season really heats up...

Here is the latest Movie Fight podcast about Green Book (https://soundcloud.com/jason-evans-151762463/jason-josh-fight-about-green-book), a film that is quite good, but falls a little bit short of great. As I say on the pod, if it had come along a decade ago, we would adore it but at this point the "friendship conquered racism" story has really been done over and over again.

-Jason "have a listen... it is only 15 minutes of your time and I hope you will enjoy listening" Evans

Bob Green
12-02-2018, 04:22 PM
I watched Bohemian Rhapsody this afternoon and enjoyed it. I've no idea whether or not Remi Malek will receive an Oscar nomination but he did a very good job.

The film was a drama not a musical.

OldPhiKap
12-02-2018, 04:56 PM
I watched Bohemian Rhapsody this afternoon and enjoyed it. I've no idea whether or not Remi Malek will receive an Oscar nomination but he did a very good job.

The film was a drama not a musical.

Remi was really good. The movie was meh although zi am not the biggest Queen fan.

The cinematography in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs was incredible, and the vignettes were very original stories/screenplays. Very good acting, but due to the configuration I do not think any of the actors will win. (Assuming it is also sent out in limited release so it qualifies for Oscars, given that it is a Netflix vehicle).

JasonEvans
12-02-2018, 09:37 PM
Remi was really good. The movie was meh although zi am not the biggest Queen fan.

The cinematography in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs was incredible, and the vignettes were very original stories/screenplays. Very good acting, but due to the configuration I do not think any of the actors will win. (Assuming it is also sent out in limited release so it qualifies for Oscars, given that it is a Netflix vehicle).

Yeah, Netflix has given award qualifying runs to several of its better film. Buster Scruggs has an outside shot to maybe get someone into a Best Supporting Category, but it is a longshot. The Netflix film that will be a major player in the awards races is Roma, by Alphonso Cuaron. It should be a player in Best Picture, Best Cinematography, Best Director, and a few others.

Oh, and if you look at the start of this thread where I raved about The Favourite... the award buzz I am hearing is that The Favourite will be the film to beat in several major categories. I'll have a podcast review of it in the next few days.

-Jason "among my critic friends, the consensus is that Favourite, Roma, Star is Born, and Vice are the films most likely to get a lot of award attention" Evans

luburch
12-03-2018, 06:44 AM
Saw The Green Book on Friday and enjoyed it immensely. It wouldn't make my list for any Oscar nominations, but definitely in the top 1/3 of movies I've seen this year.

Really need to find a way to see The Favourite and Can You Ever Forgive Me.

JasonEvans
12-03-2018, 08:40 AM
Saw The Green Book on Friday and enjoyed it immensely. It wouldn't make my list for any Oscar nominations, but definitely in the top 1/3 of movies I've seen this year.

This is precisely where I stand on it. A solidly good movie and a film that you will enjoy watching, but not an Oscar contender.


Really need to find a way to see The Favourite and Can You Ever Forgive Me.

The Favourite doesn't open for a couple more weeks. Trust me, it will be in theaters everywhere once it does. I'd hurry up and see CYEFM as it has been out for about a month and probably won't be around much longer as the art house theaters fill up with other, newer Oscar contenders like Mary Queen of Scots, Beale Street, and Roma.

weezie
12-03-2018, 04:58 PM
Wait. First Reformed is good? I know what I am doing Friday night. Seemed like just an average straight to ITunes movie based on preview.

And I thought Bohemian Rhapsody was getting largely “meh” reviews. Seems like that would torpedo a best actor Oscar nod.

First Reformed was staggering good. Just came out early and now needs a bump. Hawke is incredibly intense.

For me it's a hard choice since I thought Rami Malek was brilliant, too. And now it looks like Christian Bale is making big noise playing Dick Cheney.

JasonEvans
12-06-2018, 06:17 PM
It killed at the Golden Globe Nominations this morning, now you can hear what I thought about The Favourite in the latest edition of the Jason & Josh Fight About the Movies podcast (https://soundcloud.com/jason-evans-151762463/jason-and-josh-fight-about-the-favourite). Spoiler alert... we both adored it. In fact, our biggest concern is figuring out which category to place the actors so we can give them many, many awards.

https://soundcloud.com/jason-evans-151762463/jason-and-josh-fight-about-the-favourite

-Jason "it is just 15 minutes... have a listen" Evans

OldPhiKap
12-06-2018, 06:59 PM
It killed at the Golden Globe Nominations this morning, now you can hear what I thought about The Favourite in the latest edition of the Jason & Josh Fight About the Movies podcast (https://soundcloud.com/jason-evans-151762463/jason-and-josh-fight-about-the-favourite). Spoiler alert... we both adored it. In fact, our biggest concern is figuring out which category to place the actors so we can give them many, many awards.

https://soundcloud.com/jason-evans-151762463/jason-and-josh-fight-about-the-favourite

-Jason "it is just 15 minutes... have a listen" Evans

Jason, are there spoilers? The official preview kinda lest you know what it is about without much in the way of specifics. Started to stream, then shut it off when Josh started to discuss the plot.

Thanks, and good luck with the podcast series!

JasonEvans
12-07-2018, 03:40 AM
Jason, are there spoilers? The official preview kinda lest you know what it is about without much in the way of specifics. Started to stream, then shut it off when Josh started to discuss the plot.

Thanks, and good luck with the podcast series!

We only discuss the plot in very generic kind of ways. Certainly nothing that is not revealed in trailers and other normal reviews.

Thanks for listening. We are having fun with it. The next one should feature us really fighting about a movie... we’ve mostly been in agreement on the Oscar caliber films we’ve been seeing lately.

House P
12-07-2018, 11:18 AM
I saw a couple films this week that are going to be in the Oscar conversation. I figured I would start a thread to talk about these and other contenders for big awards.


Can anyone recommend a good resource for a list of Best Picture contenders?

My wife and I try to see all the Best Picture nominees each year. In order to avoid spending all our February free time at the movies, it helps to see several "likely nominees" ahead of the official nomination announcement in late January.

In the past, I have found the Nominoptions section of Hollywood Stock Exchange (https://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=nominoption) to be pretty reliable for predicting nominations, but this isn't running yet. My secondary source in past years has been Indiewire, but they currently list 10 movies as "Frontrunners" (https://www.indiewire.com/2018/04/2019-oscars-best-picture-predictions-1201954918/). That is a bit too wide of a net.

What I would really like to know is which 2-3 films have the best chance of being nominated for Best Picture.



Maybe Joe Lundardi can provide his list of the Best Picture "locks". :cool:

JasonEvans
12-07-2018, 11:36 AM
Can anyone recommend a good resource for a list of Best Picture contenders?

My wife and I try to see all the Best Picture nominees each year. In order to avoid spending all our February free time at the movies, it helps to see several "likely nominees" ahead of the official nomination announcement in late January.

In the past, I have found the Nominoptions section of Hollywood Stock Exchange (https://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=nominoption) to be pretty reliable for predicting nominations, but this isn't running yet. My secondary source in past years has been Indiewire, but they currently list 10 movies as "Frontrunners" (https://www.indiewire.com/2018/04/2019-oscars-best-picture-predictions-1201954918/). That is a bit too wide of a net.

What I would really like to know is which 2-3 films have the best chance of being nominated for Best Picture.

Maybe Joe Lundardi can provide his list of the Best Picture "locks". :cool:

There are likely to be 7 or so Best Picture nominees this year. I would say the following films are close to a lock for being one of them: The Favourite, Vice, A Star is Born.

I would be more than mildly shocked if any of those 3 did not get a Best Picture nom. Vice is the least likely of those three but I would still make it 90% to be a nominee. Green Book and Roma also close to being locks... close.

After that it gets a lot more dicey. Here are the odds, just off the top of my head.

The Favourite - 98%
A Star is Born - 98%
Vice - 90%
Green Book - 75%
Roma - 70%
BlacKkKlansman - 60%
If Beale Street Could Talk - 60%
Black Panther - 50%
First Man - 40%
Mary Poppins Returns - 35%
Bohemian Rhapsody - 30%
Welcome to Marwen - 30%
On the Basis of Sex - 25%
Beautiful Boy - 20%
Eighth Grade - 15%
A Quiet Place - 10%
Can You Ever Forgive Me - 10%
Crazy Rich Asians - 10%
Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse - 5%

-Jason "I am sure someone will point out that there is some math that makes my percentages impossible, but... well... I tried" Evans

budwom
12-07-2018, 12:09 PM
The previews for Christian Bale playing Dick Cheney are absolutely riveting, in an ever so creepy kind of way. At first I thought it was Dick himself. That man (Bale) can act...not to mention Gloria Steinem is his stepmom, so there's that.

JasonEvans
12-07-2018, 12:50 PM
The previews for Christian Bale playing Dick Cheney are absolutely riveting, in an ever so creepy kind of way. At first I thought it was Dick himself. That man (Bale) can act...not to mention Gloria Steinem is his stepmom, so there's that.

His performance is awesome. Steve Carrell is also great as Rumsfeld. A truly wondrous cast, second only to The Favourite in my mind.

House P
12-07-2018, 02:16 PM
There are likely to be 7 or so Best Picture nominees this year. I would say the following films are close to a lock for being one of them: The Favourite, Vice, A Star is Born.

I would be more than mildly shocked if any of those 3 did not get a Best Picture nom. Vice is the least likely of those three but I would still make it 90% to be a nominee. Green Book and Roma also close to being locks... close.

After that it gets a lot more dicey. Here are the odds, just off the top of my head.

The Favourite - 98%
A Star is Born - 98%
Vice - 90%
Green Book - 75%
Roma - 70%
BlacKkKlansman - 60%
If Beale Street Could Talk - 60%
Black Panther - 50%
First Man - 40%
Mary Poppins Returns - 35%
Bohemian Rhapsody - 30%
Welcome to Marwen - 30%
On the Basis of Sex - 25%
Beautiful Boy - 20%
Eighth Grade - 15%
A Quiet Place - 10%
Can You Ever Forgive Me - 10%
Crazy Rich Asians - 10%
Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse - 5%

-Jason "I am sure someone will point out that there is some math that makes my percentages impossible, but... well... I tried" Evans

This is exactly the kind of analysis I was looking for. Thanks.

I'm very interested in seeing the top 4 films on your list, so that seems like a good place to start. A Star is Born is still playing at the megaplex on the way home from work, so you just decided our plans for the evening. The Favourite isn't playing as widely, but it isn't too hard to find and will be next.

Looks like Vice is the biggest discrepancy between your list and the Indiewire list. Indiewire lists this as a "Contender", which is the next category down from "Favorite".

JasonEvans
12-07-2018, 02:56 PM
Looks like Vice is the biggest discrepancy between your list and the Indiewire list. Indiewire lists this as a "Contender", which is the next category down from "Favorite".

I could be wrong about Vice, I freely admit that. It is certainly a film that fans of W and Cheney probably won't like, which could make it somewhat toxic to some Oscar voters, but the fact that it did so well at the Golden Globes tells me it is going to get a Best Picture nomination. I don't think it will win (Star is Born or Favourite seem like the most likely winners).

JasonEvans
12-18-2018, 10:53 AM
The Academy has released the "short" list of Best Original Song contenders. I find it very interesting that "A Star is Born" only pushed Shallow for this award. I think they were afraid that having multiple contenders could split the vote, a smart strategy. Personally, I think Always Remember Us This Way could have been a strong contender.

Anyway, here is the short list:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings”)
Writers: David Rawlings, Gillian Welch
Performers: Willie Watson, Tim Blake Nelson

Beautiful Boy (“Treasure”)
Writer: Sampha Sisay
Performer: Sampha

Black Panther (“All The Stars”)
Writers: Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, Mark Spears, Solána Rowe, Al Shuckburgh
Performers: Kendrick Lamar, SZA

Boy Erased (“Revelation”)
Writers: Troye Sivan Mellet, Jón Birgisson
Performers: Troye Sivan, Jónsi

Dumplin’ (“Girl In The Movies”)
Writers: Dolly Parton, Linda Perry
Performer: Dolly Parton

The Hate U Give (“We Won’t Move”)
Writer: Jessica Karpov, Kevin White, Mike Woods
Performer: Arlissa

Mary Poppins Returns (“The Place Where Lost Things Go”)
Writers: Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
Performer: Emily Blunt

Mary Poppins Returns (“Trip A Little Light Fantastic”
Writers: Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
Performers: Lin-Manuel Miranda with Emily Blunt, Tarik Frimpong, Pixie Davies, Joel Dawson, Nathanael Saleh & Leeries

Quincy (“Keep Reachin'”)
Writers: Mark Ronson, Jeff Bhasker, Andrew Wyatt, Chaka Khan, Quincy Jones
Performers: Mark Ronson, Chaka Khan, Quincy Jones

RBG (“I’ll Fight”)
Writer: Diane Warren
Performer: Jennifer Hudson

Ralph Breaks the Internet (“A Place Called Slaughter Race”)
Writers: Alan Menken (music); Phil Johnston, Tom MacDougall (lyrics)
Performers: Sarah Silverman, Gal Gadot, Steve Amerson, Michael Bannett, Eric Bradley, Laura Dickinson, Kelci Hahn, Ayana Haviv, Clydene Jackson, Sara Mann, Jasper Randall, Jessica Rotter, Fletcher Sheridan, Greg Whipple

Sorry to Bother You (“OYAHYTT”)
Writers: Boots Riley, Ryan Christopher Parks, Damion Gallegos
Performers: The Coup featuring Lakeith Stanfield

A Star Is Born (“Shallow”)
Writers: Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt
Performers: Lady Gaga, Bradley Cooper

Suspiria (“Suspirium”)
Writer: Thom Yorke
Performer: Thom Yorke

Widows (“The Big Unknown”)
Writers: Sade Adu, Ben Travers
Performer: Sade

JasonEvans
12-18-2018, 11:07 AM
The Academy also released several other short lists (https://deadline.com/2018/12/oscars-shortlists-movie-academy-unveils-slew-of-shortlists-1202521728/). This is a way of helping voters to know which films to focus upon. Here are a few interesting ones:


Visual Effects:
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Christopher Robin
First Man
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Welcome to Marwen

I see First Man, JW, Avengers, and Black Panther as the leading contenders here. Black Panther is probably the odds-on favorite.


Original Score
Annihilation
Avengers: Infinity War
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Crazy Rich Asians
The Death of Stalin
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
Ready Player One
Vice

Beale Street really should win, but I'm not sure the orchestra-loving traditionalists will go for the jazzy Beale Street score. BlacKkKlansman, First Man, and Isle of Dogs are also strong contenders, IMO. I think it would be hysterical if A Quiet Place, a film about silence, got a nomination for its music.


Foreign Language
Colombia, Birds of Passage
Denmark, The Guilty
Germany, Never Look Away
Japan, Shoplifters
Kazakhstan, Ayka
Lebanon, Capernaum
Mexico, Roma
Poland, Cold War
South Korea, Burning

Most years this would be a 2 way race between the brilliant Shoplifters and Cold War, but Roma is a mortal lock, I think.


Documentary
Charm City
Communion
Crime + Punishment
Dark Money
The Distant Barking of Dogs
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
On Her Shoulders
RBG
Shirkers
The Silence of Others
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Free Solo, RGB, Three Identical Strangers, and Won't You Be My Neighbor are the front-runners. I think RGB will win in socially conscious Hollywood.


Makeup and Hairstyling
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Stan & Ollie
Suspiria
Vice

The job of aging Bale, Adams, and Carell in Vice is pretty impressive. I wonder if Suspria is just too weird and will turn off some voters as a result. I'm surprised The Favourite did not show up here, if only for Nicholas Hoult's wigs.

https://entertainment.inquirer.net/files/2018/11/NicholasHoultTheFavourite1.jpg

luburch
12-18-2018, 01:03 PM
The Academy also released several other short lists (https://deadline.com/2018/12/oscars-shortlists-movie-academy-unveils-slew-of-shortlists-1202521728/). This is a way of helping voters to know which films to focus upon. Here are a few interesting ones:

I see First Man, JW, Avengers, and Black Panther as the leading contenders here. Black Panther is probably the odds-on favorite.



Really? Perhaps I am misunderstanding the category, but I thought one of the main knocks on Black Panther was that is struggled visually. At least with the CGI related work.

JasonEvans
12-18-2018, 01:46 PM
Really? Perhaps I am misunderstanding the category, but I thought one of the main knocks on Black Panther was that is struggled visually. At least with the CGI related work.

I don't recall that being a problem in the movie and I think the Academy will be looking for places to honor it (other than Best Picture, where it could be nominated, but won't win). Visual effects seems like a nice place to do that in a year where I don't recall anything groundbreaking from an effects standpoint.

luburch
12-21-2018, 01:33 PM
Seeing The Favourite today. Possibly Roma as well. Heard nothing but great things about both.

A little disappointed to see meh reviews for Mary Queen of Scots.

Faustus
12-22-2018, 12:36 AM
Saw Mary Queen of Scots tonight, and... it's not as terrible as I'd heard. Still some wildly inaccurate parts (like... Mary and Elizabeth never did meet, and I seriously doubt Mary actually had a Scots accent, but historically correctly they do have her speaking fluent French at least among her lady's maids), but it is well acted, and in feel and spirit I thought it portrayed things fairly well. Many details can surely be nit-picked in it - I found plenty - but yet, I enjoyed the experience over-all. Meh Plus, I'd say.

(I also have mixed feelings about The Favourite - again plenty of things just slightly wrong historically, a few wildly wrong, but in over-all feel does quite well I thought. As entertainment, it was certainly odd - those I went with found the entire film "disturbing" and the music and pacing helps build that sensation up as it all progresses. Not so much a comedic 'romp' as dark comedy, surprising and likely disappointing many viewers, I gather. Excellent acting throughout, lushly filmed (in both cases it helps with me because I know many of the shooting locations from earlier visits to them and always enjoy that) although many felt The Favourite lasted too long. Physically, and oddly, they really could have switched the actors of Sarah and cousin Abigail, as Sarah was the redhead of the two. Queen Anne is portrayed very well, and I think, accurately, although some historians always pop up to try to rehabilitate her reputation. In British costume dramas of the year, there shouldn't be complaints about the lack of good leading parts for females... I enjoyed The Favourite a lot, but I also knew the history behind it which helps a lot, and it may leave many feeling somewhat lost. But viewers still should enjoy the acting performances.)

YmoBeThere
12-22-2018, 07:26 AM
The previews for Christian Bale playing Dick Cheney are absolutely riveting, in an ever so creepy kind of way. At first I thought it was Dick himself. That man (Bale) can act...not to mention Gloria Steinem is his stepmom, so there's that.


His performance is awesome. Steve Carrell is also great as Rumsfeld. A truly wondrous cast, second only to The Favourite in my mind.

The Lawyer Dick Cheney Shot in the Face Says He’s Definitely Going to See ‘Vice
https://www.indiewire.com/2018/12/vice-lawyer-dick-cheney-shot-plans-see-adam-mckay-movie-1202029720/amp/


I wonder if RT will lethim post as a Top Critic?

JasonEvans
12-22-2018, 09:50 AM
The Lawyer Dick Cheney Shot in the Face Says He’s Definitely Going to See ‘Vice
https://www.indiewire.com/2018/12/vice-lawyer-dick-cheney-shot-plans-see-adam-mckay-movie-1202029720/amp/


I wonder if RT will lethim post as a Top Critic?

The face shooting is barely a part of the movie. It comes and goes really quickly without much impact on the main character.

luburch
01-07-2019, 02:17 PM
After hearing all of the praise, I saw If Beale Street Could Talk Friday night. Thoroughly enjoyed it. Sneaks into my top 10 films of the year.

I've seen ~75 films from 2018. Still a few more (Colette, Burning, Shoplifters, Mid-90's) that I'm going to try and find a way to see. I'll share my full list and my thoughts on who should get the Oscar nominations when I've finished.

luburch
01-14-2019, 07:17 AM
My top 2018 films:
A Quiet Place
Annihilation
Eighth Grade
A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Green Book
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Colette
Blindspotting
If Beale Street Could Talk

In total, I watched 78 films released in 2018. Full ranked list is here: https://letterboxd.com/luburch/list/2018-movies/

I'm still trying to watch Can You Ever Forgive Me, Burning, and Shoplifters. I believe all have the ability to crack the top 10-15.

My Oscar nomination predictions (winner in bold):

Best Picture:
A Star is Born
Roma
The Favourite
Green Book
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
Christian Bale - Vice
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman
Ethan Hawke - First Reformed

Best Actress:
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Elsie Fisher - Eighth Grade (Best performance I saw all year)

Best Director:
Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
Spike Lee - BlackKklansman
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Barry Jenkins - If Beale Stree Could Talk

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver - BlackKklansman
Richard E Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliot

Best Supporting Actress:
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams - Vice
Claire Foy - First Man

JasonEvans
01-22-2019, 08:16 AM
We get the announcement in less than 10 minutes. While I expect The Favourite to get a lot of noms, it does not seem to be a major contender for more than Best Actress at this point. It will be very interesting to see how many nominations Bohemian Rap gets with it winning awards but many critics saying it just isn't that good a movie.

I hope Black Panther, Annihilation, and Quiet Place get significant nominations, as the Oscars are for all the films released in 2018, not just the ones that came out in Oct-Dec.

-Jason "I'll be back in a bit to update with nomination reaction" Evans

JasonEvans
01-22-2019, 08:28 AM
Richard Grant is off the charts and, I think, almost certain to get a Best Supporting Actor nod.

Told ya...

Just like every year, Supporting Actor is a nightmare to pick. I can probably make a case for any of these winning.

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

luburch
01-22-2019, 08:31 AM
Told ya...

Just like every year, Supporting Actor is a nightmare to pick. I can probably make a case for any of these winning.

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Rockwell surprises me. I did not love his performance in Vice.

luburch
01-22-2019, 08:43 AM
Initial reactions:

Bohemian Rhapsody getting a best picture nomination is a joke. I don't think Black Panther deserved one either.

Elsie Fisher 100% deserved a Lead Actress nomination. She put in the best performance of the year.

Surprised John David Washington didn't get a nomination for BlacKkKlansman.

Cooper didn't get a nomination for A Star is Born? Wow!

luburch
01-22-2019, 08:51 AM
Won't You Be My Neighbor wasn't nominated for Best Documentary?! Yeesh.

wilson
01-22-2019, 09:09 AM
At least one category has a Duke connection. "End Game," (http://endgame-documentary.com/) nominated for Best Documentary Short, includes cinematography by Rebekah Fergusson, T '04.

JasonEvans
01-22-2019, 10:25 AM
Rockwell surprises me. I did not love his performance in Vice.

It was ok, but wasn't that great. I thought Steve Carrell was fabulous as Rummy in that film and wish he had gotten more Oscar traction, but everyone loves laughing at bungling W so Rockwell gets all the pub. Carrell was essential to huge portions of the film, not just the back half like Rockwell.


Initial reactions:

Bohemian Rhapsody getting a best picture nomination is a joke. I don't think Black Panther deserved one either.

Elsie Fisher 100% deserved a Lead Actress nomination. She put in the best performance of the year.

Surprised John David Washington didn't get a nomination for BlacKkKlansman.

Cooper didn't get a nomination for A Star is Born? Wow!

Agree with every word except your comments on Black Panther.

What is the point in nominating Glen Close yet again for The Wife? This is her 7th Oscar nomination without a win. She won't win this time either so it is just becoming cruel (she could easily have won for World Accord to Garp or Dangerous Liaisons or Fatal Attraction). Why not toss Elsie Fisher and the marvelous Eighth Grade a nomination?

PackMan97
01-22-2019, 11:14 AM
I think there should be an automatic nomination for the top grossing film of the year in the Best Picture category. Call it an automatic bid if you will. If American's deemed it the most popular picture with their attendance and money, the Academy should be forced to at least consider it.

I'm glad Black Panther was nominated but would be completely shocked if it won.

weezie
01-22-2019, 01:27 PM
Nothing for Ethan Hawke/First Reformed.
I had hopes that Cedric the Entertainer would get a supporting nod.
Came out too early I guess and pretty dark material.

weezie
01-24-2019, 10:41 PM
Wow, just saw "At Eternity's Gate" about Van Gogh, starring Willem Dafoe. Dafoe can act rings around just about any actor out there today. Daniel Day-Lewis appreciates him, I'd venture.

Oscar Issac was very fine, too.

luburch
01-28-2019, 06:42 AM
Scratched Can You Ever Forgive Me? off the watch list yesterday afternoon.

Good film. Grant and McCarthy both did nice jobs, but I don't feel like any of it was award worthy.

YmoBeThere
02-25-2019, 07:45 AM
Interesting, no follow up discussion...

luburch
02-25-2019, 08:14 AM
Roma losing was a shock. Controversy has surrounded Green Book for months now.

Olivia Colman wining Best Actress was somewhat surprising.

The most egregious selection of the evening was Bohemian Rhapsody winning the editing category. It had terrible editing!

JasonEvans
02-25-2019, 08:38 AM
Attached is my predictions made last week for a pool I was in. I have not been told if I won, but I did really, really well. I missed Best Picture (because I voted with my heart, not my head, though my head would not have taken Green Book either) but hit almost everything else. I was surprised by BoRap doing well in the sound categories but I am surprised by every award BoRap wins. Other than that, I was dead on target.

https://i.ibb.co/HH47f0d/IMG-4162.jpg

In a year where there was no dominant film, it was an Oscars where everything got a win (except Vice). They really spread the wealth around a good bit. I guess that is ok.

-Jason "really uninspiring show... they need a host" Evans

budwom
02-25-2019, 08:40 AM
I don't get too immersed in the Oscars, but at quick glance (I'll watch more tonight on FF) the lack of a host was nothing but good news, made things go faster with fewer lame jokes.

Also enjoyed watching some of the prattling cut short by the Music of Cessation....feel bad for folks who didn't get to thank everyone, but there are only so many hours in a day.

weezie
02-25-2019, 08:56 AM
Saw about ten minutes but did catch Malek winning. Just before his name was called the husband remarked that the stage floor looked dizzying. Then Malek tripped exiting said stage.

Anyway, why does Cranky Spike Lee wear those captain hats all the time? Does anybody know?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-25-2019, 09:09 AM
Olivia Colman winning was a delight. Her speech was truly lovely and impromptu.

brevity
02-25-2019, 09:11 AM
Roma losing was a shock. Controversy has surrounded Green Book for months now.


Leave it to the Academy to vote for the wrong old-fashioned black and white film.


In a year where there was no dominant film, it was an Oscars where everything got a win (except Vice).

You are forgiven if you already forgot that Vice won for Makeup/Hairstyling.


https://youtube.com/watch?v=oattDtak0yg

I can’t even embed the video because it sucks that much.

If the Kodak Theatre had a Cameron Crazies section — and they should — you might hear the chant “Three winners, one speech, no glasses”. Or better yet, “Cut to commercial”.

I try to avoid recency bias, but I cannot recall a worse acceptance speech. It’s a field with only three nominees, and the other two are longshots. How is it possible that none of these 3 people were prepared to speak? If ever there were an argument not to televise every category...

fuse
02-25-2019, 10:04 AM
I watch movies for entertainment is my leading statement ahead of my opinions.

Roma may have been among the worst movies I watched this year.
My opinion has nothing to do with black and white film, or subtitles.
I’m trying to think of a movie experience I’d compare.
I’d enjoy understanding other people’s perspective on what I am missing.

I did not see the period piece movies, so no opinions there.

Glad Spiderverse won.
Wish Black Panther had won best picture.

I watched both Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born this weekend prior to the Oscars.

Rami Malek’s portrayal of Freddie Mercury was good, the movie itself was a hot mess. Bradley Cooper’s portrayal of Jack Maine in ASIB was the superior performance. I didn’t see any of the other movies for best actress so saying Lady Gaga deserved it is not defensible.

I guess I don’t understand the sound awards- how did A Quiet Place not win the one for which it was nominated?

I haven’t seen Green Room, and my initial thoughts on it would likely generate some unnecessary controversy, so I will pass on sharing my thoughts.

luburch
02-25-2019, 10:11 AM
I watch movies for entertainment is my leading statement ahead of my opinions.

Roma may have been among the worst movies I watched this year.
My opinion has nothing to do with black and white film, or subtitles.
I’m trying to think of a movie experience I’d compare.
I’d enjoy understanding other people’s perspective on what I am missing.

I did not see the period piece movies, so no opinions there.

Glad Spiderverse won.
Wish Black Panther had won best picture.

I watched both Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born this weekend prior to the Oscars.

Rami Malek’s portrayal of Freddie Mercury was good, the movie itself was a hot mess. Bradley Cooper’s portrayal of Jack Maine in ASIB was the superior performance. I didn’t see any of the other movies for best actress so saying Lady Gaga deserved it is not defensible.

I guess I don’t understand the sound awards- how did A Quiet Place not win the one for which it was nominated?

I haven’t seen Green Room, and my initial thoughts on it would likely generate some unnecessary controversy, so I will pass on sharing my thoughts.

You can believe that a movie is a cinematic masterpiece and not really enjoy watching it.

Roma is beautifully shot and tells a wonderful story. I'm not sure I'll ever watch it again.

Think of it like Virginia basketball. They play amazing defense and are extremely efficient. Doesn't mean I want to watch all of their games.

PackMan97
02-25-2019, 10:13 AM
I think I saw Green Room about 20 years ago. It was called Driving Miss Daisy.

fuse
02-25-2019, 10:22 AM
You can believe that a movie is a cinematic masterpiece and not really enjoy watching it.

Roma is beautifully shot and tells a wonderful story. I'm not sure I'll ever watch it again.

Think of it like Virginia basketball. They play amazing defense and are extremely efficient. Doesn't mean I want to watch all of their games.

Beautifully shot, I can agree with.
Wonderful story- perhaps for some.

I like the analogy.

What makes a cinematic masterpiece?
Can both Roma and Black Panther be cinematic masterpieces?
[I know, answers are akin to beauty is in the eye of the beholder.]

Truth&Justise
02-25-2019, 03:41 PM
Beautifully shot, I can agree with.
Wonderful story- perhaps for some.

I like the analogy.

What makes a cinematic masterpiece?
Can both Roma and Black Panther be cinematic masterpieces?
[I know, answers are akin to beauty is in the eye of the beholder.]

There's an incredible efficiency of storytelling in Roma. Think how much is conveyed about two characters just by watching, slowly, as they park an over-sized car in a driveway. So much is told there, and in so many other scenes too, without words. It's also a film that manages to be simultaneously very intimate--covering a year in the life of a single domestic worker, including truly personal tragedy--and vastly grand--covering political upheaval in 1970s Mexico and deep class and ethnic divides. Every choice by the filmmaker was careful and deliberate.

Personally, the two best films I saw last year were Roma and If Beale Street Could Talk. I haven't seen Green Book yet, so I'll have to reserve judgment, but it'll have a hard time topping either of those two films.

A-Tex Devil
02-25-2019, 05:13 PM
Green Book is going to be in the same class as Crash, Driving Miss Daisy, Shape of Water, The Artist and others where 5 years later we are saying "THAT movie won best picture?" I am sure it benefited from preferential voting.

The hazing of Bradley Cooper this award season was interesting. A Star is Born is superior to Bohemian Rhapsody in every. single. way. Rami was really, really good, and I liked him. But every single award BH won in, A Star is Born was almost objectively better, whether it was sound, script, acting screenplay, etc. etc. I just don't get that one. Yes BH is "more fun", but given the Brian Singer controversy, I'm just a little puzzled why it got so much love other than everyone is nostalgic for Freddie Mercury, which I get, I guess.

JasonEvans
02-25-2019, 05:48 PM
Green Book is going to be in the same class as Crash, Driving Miss Daisy, Shape of Water, The Artist and others where 5 years later we are saying "THAT movie won best picture?" I am sure it benefited from preferential voting.

People will still be watching and enjoying/admiring Star is Born, BlacKkKlansman, and Black Panther a decade from now. I don't think there is a person on the planet who intentionally saw Green Book more than once.

Plus, we just gave a Best Picture Oscar to the man who gave us Dumb and Dumber To, Movie 43, Hall Pass, and The Heartbreak Kid... whew... that's many hours of truly awful filmmaking right there.

luburch
02-26-2019, 06:38 AM
People will still be watching and enjoying/admiring Star is Born, BlacKkKlansman, and Black Panther a decade from now. I don't think there is a person on the planet who intentionally saw Green Book more than once.

Plus, we just gave a Best Picture Oscar to the man who gave us Dumb and Dumber To, Movie 43, Hall Pass, and The Heartbreak Kid... whew... that's many hours of truly awful filmmaking right there.

Is this the criteria for Best Picture, though? The award isn't "most rewatchable" film. Do people sit down when they get home from the office and decide they want to watch Moonlight? Probably not very often, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a deserving winner.

YMMV, but I think The Shape of Water was a far more egregious selection than Green Book.

I enjoyed A Star is Born and BlackKklansman more than Green Book, but I think it's fairly easy to see why it won. It's a feel-good race related story with strong acting performances. I'll stop there in fear of wading into some PPB thoughts.

A-Tex Devil
02-26-2019, 12:01 PM
Is this the criteria for Best Picture, though? The award isn't "most rewatchable" film. Do people sit down when they get home from the office and decide they want to watch Moonlight? Probably not very often, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a deserving winner.


Not exactly. No one would suggest Schindlers List shouldn’t have won, but I’ve seen it once. I’ll probably watch it again when my kids are old enough. I’ll beg to differ with you on Moonlight. Knowing how it ends now makes it very rewatchable to me.

Look, this is all opinion (despite my protestation on BR v ASIB). But some movies get caught up in awards momentum/hype/etc. than looking back, we realize that they just weren’t best picture quality. It’s more about how movies age than rewatchability. American Beauty over LA Confidential? Really? Shape of Water was well made and acted, and unique, but I think it will age poorly as well as a best picture worthy movie. As will Green Book, IMO.

Met_Man
03-04-2019, 08:41 PM
Into the Spider-Verse was robbed!