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pfrduke
10-22-2018, 12:30 PM
Contest time again! This will remain open until tip-off of the Kentucky game - all posts in before then will count. Pick the minutes per game for each of Duke's players. Minutes per game will be calculated per total team game, not just total games played by the player. In other words, if Joey Baker gets into 10 of the team's 40 games and plays 100 total minutes, his MPG will be 2.5, not 10. cbarry was last year's winner, whose projections were off by a total of 31.5 minutes across the entire team. For reference, here's last year's numbers:

Allen - 35.6
Trent - 33.9
Bagley - 30.2
Duval - 29.8
Carter - 26.9
DeLaurier - 11.3
Bolden - 10.1
O'Connell - 10.1
Goldwire - 4.6
White - 4.3
Robinson - 2.2
Vrankovic - 1.8
Tucker - 0.4
Buckmire - 0.1

(careful readers will note that totals more than 200 - this is because the team played two overtime games. If you want to factor potential overtimes into your projections, more power to you)

DukieTiger
10-29-2018, 08:00 AM
Bump... We doin’ this thing?

Tre Jones: 31
RJ Barrett: 31
Cam Reddish: 30
Zion Williamson: 30
Javin DeLaurier: 19
Marques Bolden: 18
Jack White: 14
Alex O’Connell: 14
Joey Baker: 5
Jordan Goldwire: 4
Antonio Vrankovic: 2
Justin Robinson:2

Spanarkel
10-29-2018, 09:56 AM
Was waiting for cbarry's projection...

RJ Barrett 33
Tre Jones 32
Cam Reddish 29
Zion 27
Javin DeL 22
Marquese 17
AOC 15
Jack White 10
Antonio V. 6
Jordan G. 4
Joey Baker 3
JRob 2

NSDukeFan
10-29-2018, 03:30 PM
R.J. Barrett 32
Zion 30
Reddish 30
Jones 30
DesLauriers 21
Bolden 20
O’Connell 13
White 11
Baker 7
Robinson 2
Vrankovic 2
Goldwire 2

UrinalCake
10-29-2018, 03:53 PM
Feels like games missed due to injury should not count towards the total.

kAzE
10-29-2018, 04:29 PM
Tre Jones: 35
RJ Barrett: 34
Zion Williamson: 32
Cam Reddish: 32
Javin DeLaurier: 18
Jack White: 14
Marques Bolden: 11
Alex O’Connell: 11
Jordan Goldwire: 5
Everyone else combined: 8

MChambers
10-29-2018, 04:59 PM
Barrett 33
Jones 32
Williamson 30
Reddish 27
Bolden 21
Delaurier 20
McConnell 13
White 14
Goldwire 4
Vrankovic 3
Buckmire 1
Robinson 2
Baker 0

devilsince1977
10-29-2018, 10:29 PM
Barrett - 34
Jones - 33
Reddish - 29
Williamson - 29
DeLaurier - 20
Bolden - 17
White - 14
O'Connell - 13
Baker - 4
Goldwire - 4
Vrankovic - 2
Robinson - 1
Buckmire - 0
Bresser - 0

I wish I knew if Baker was going to Red Shirt or Not.

kAzE
10-30-2018, 01:57 AM
Barrett 33
Jones 32
Williamson 30
Reddish 27
Bolden 21
Delaurier 20
McConnell 13
White 14
Goldwire 4
Vrankovic 3
Buckmire 1
Robinson 2
Baker 0

8758 ???

Green Wave Dukie
10-30-2018, 05:33 AM
8758 ???

MChambers did say it was a wild guess. Think this surely qualifies.

But I’m not sure Mitch has any eligibility left. But I guess he could play the right side of the (passing) lane.

OldPhiKap
10-30-2018, 07:30 AM
Mitch is from Kentucky. Louisville undergrad, Kentucky grad school.

‘Nuf said. He sits the bench.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-30-2018, 08:05 AM
Just read The Chronicle's feature on O'Connell....I was surprised to see that he shot a fantastic 49% from 3. The sample was not huge, but it was not tiny either - 45 attempts. Now I would not assume he could shoot that kind of percentage with a lot more attempts, and with some of those shots coming in very big moments perhaps - but that indicates to me he's def an over 40 per cent guy. If he and Jack can be 40-45% from 3 and contribute otherwise too, they will see significant minutes with the rest of the lineup.

budwom
10-30-2018, 08:31 AM
Feels like games missed due to injury should not count towards the total.

Moreover, (and we've had this discussion before) it's important to use as the denominator the number of games a player is available for...the official Duke stats just divide total minutes by games played, which can at time produce a totally bogus result, e.g. a guy who only gets in 15 games and averages seven minutes in each of those games...in other words, when you add up everyone's minutes/game, you should end up with 200 minutes (plus overtime minutes)...

MChambers
10-30-2018, 08:33 AM
8758 ???

Can't believe I did that. Need to get out of DC more often.

jv001
10-30-2018, 08:57 AM
Jones= 35
Barrett= 34
Reddish= 28
Williamson= 28
DeLaurier= 20
Bolden= 17
White= 15
O'Connell= 15
Goldwire = 4
Baker= 2
Vrankovic= 1
Robinson= 1
Rest 0

Duke79UNLV77
10-30-2018, 09:07 AM
Barrett - 34
Zion - 33
Jones - 32
Cam - 30
Javin - 19
Bolden - 16
O'C - 14
White - 14
Baker - 4
Goldwire - 2
Others - 2

Gooch
10-30-2018, 10:28 AM
I'll try...

Barrett - 34
Jones - 33
Zion - 32
Cam - 31
Javin - 20
White - 16
Bolden - 14
O'C - 12
Baker - 3
Goldwire - 3
Others - 2

pfrduke
10-30-2018, 11:12 AM
Moreover, (and we've had this discussion before) it's important to use as the denominator the number of games a player is available for...the official Duke stats just divide total minutes by games played, which can at time produce a totally bogus result, e.g. a guy who only gets in 15 games and averages seven minutes in each of those games...in other words, when you add up everyone's minutes/game, you should end up with 200 minutes (plus overtime minutes)...

Exactly. This is the reason that we don't adjust player minutes for games missed to injury (or suspension or whatever reason). The relevant number is minutes per game Duke plays.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-30-2018, 12:58 PM
Exactly. This is the reason that we don't adjust player minutes for games missed to injury (or suspension or whatever reason). The relevant number is minutes per game Duke plays.

logical.....zero minutes played is a relevant and legit stat.....whereas points per game is points per game played in.

Neals384
10-30-2018, 01:59 PM
Jones= 36
Barrett= 36
Reddish= 26
Williamson= 29
DeLaurier= 19
Bolden= 13
White= 16
O'Connell= 18
Goldwire = 3
Baker= 0
Vrankovic= 2
Robinson= 2

DallasDevil
10-30-2018, 02:51 PM
RJ: 35
Zion: 33
Reddish: 33
Jones: 33
Bolden: 18
Javin: 16
Jack: 14
Alex: 11
Goldwire: 3
Vrank: 2
J-Rob: 2

niveklaen
10-31-2018, 03:48 PM
Zion: 32
RJ: 32
Cam: 32
Jones: 34
Javin: 22
Bolden: 18
AOC: 20
White: 5
Gold: 5

I think that AOC will bogart the backup minutes at 1-3* with Bolden/javin basically splitting the post and white/gold getting mop up duty and DNPs in games that we win by less than 20pts. 7 man rotation.

*I know that AOC is a defensive liability, but as the only weak defender he can be hidden and he stretches defense way more than the other options. I also dont think that rebounding will be a problem with our length/jumpablity...

flyingdutchdevil
10-31-2018, 03:54 PM
Jones= 33
Barrett= 34
Reddish= 29
Williamson= 29
DeLaurier= 23
Bolden= 13
White= 17
O'Connell= 16
Goldwire = 2
Baker= 0
Vrankovic= 2
Robinson= 2

LaffPirate
11-03-2018, 01:08 PM
Jones 33
Barrett 32
Williamson 30
Reddish 29
DeLaurier 20
O'Connell 18
Bolden 18
White 12
Goldwire 4
Robinson 3
Vrankovic 1
Buckmire 1
Besser 0
Baker 0

HereBeforeCoachK
11-03-2018, 03:48 PM
Jones 33
Barrett 33
Williamson 33
Reddish 31
DeLaurier 17
O'Connell 9
Bolden 18
White 14
Goldwire 3
Robinson 3
Vrankovic 1
Buckmire 1
Besser 0
Baker 4

arnie
11-03-2018, 04:55 PM
Jones 36
RJ. 35
Zion 35
Reddish 30
Javin. 20
Bolden 16
AOC 16
White 9
Antonio 1
JRob. 1
Goldwire 1

sagegrouse
11-03-2018, 06:05 PM
Here's my guess:

RJ - 33
Cam - 33
Zion - 30
Tre - 28
Javin - 20
Mbold - 17
Jack - 12.5
Alex - 12.5
G'wire - 5
Baker - 4
Justin - 4
Vrank - 1
Total 200

timmy c
11-04-2018, 11:12 AM
Tre Jones: 33.5
RJ Barrett: 35
Cam Reddish: 30
Zion Williamson: 34
Javin DeLaurier: 18.5
Marques Bolden: 14.5
Jack White: 15.5
Alex O’Connell: 15.5
Jordan Goldwire: 1
Antonio Vrankovic: 1.5
Justin Robinson:1.5

DCDevil9194
11-04-2018, 08:43 PM
Jones - 33
Barrett - 32
Reddish - 28
Williamson - 27
DeLaurier - 19
Bolden - 16
White - 15
O'Connell - 15
Baker - 6
Goldwire - 4
Robinson - 3
Vrank - 2

cbarry
11-04-2018, 10:00 PM
I don’t want to show my cards yet. My prediction will be in soon... ;)


Was waiting for cbarry's projection...

RJ Barrett 33
Tre Jones 32
Cam Reddish 29
Zion 27
Javin DeL 22
Marquese 17
AOC 15
Jack White 10
Antonio V. 6
Jordan G. 4
Joey Baker 3
JRob 2

luburch
11-05-2018, 07:18 AM
RJ - 35
Tre - 34
Cam - 32
Zion - 32
Javin - 20
Alex - 16
Bolden - 16
Jack - 9
Goldwire - 3
Vrank - 3

whereinthehellami
11-05-2018, 09:21 AM
RJ - 35
Tre - 34
Cam - 30
Zion - 30
Javin - 18
Alex - 16
Jack - 16
Bolden - 15
Robinson - 2
Goldwire - 2
Vrank - 2

azzefkram
11-05-2018, 09:52 AM
My first pass was

Zion 100
Jack 100

but Duke's cloning and rapid growth tech is close but not quite ready yet.

My official take is

RJ 32
Tre 32
Zion 30
Cam 30
Marques 20
Javin 18
Jack 15
AOC 15
Jordan 3
Justin 3
Vrank 2

I have a sneaky feeling that my first pass has a higher probability of being right than my official one does.

Matches
11-05-2018, 10:01 AM
T. Jones - 34
R. Barrett - 33
Z. Williamson - 32
C Reddish - 29
J DeLaurier - 18
A O'Connell - 14
M Bolden - 13
J White - 13
J Goldwire - 4
J Robinson - 3
Vrank - 3
J Baker - 3
Other - 1

elvis14
11-05-2018, 02:37 PM
RJ Barrett 32
Tre Jones 29
Mount Zion 29
Cam Reddish 28
Javin DeL 19
AOC 17
Marquese 15
Jack White 10
Joey Baker 9
Jordan G. 6
Antonio V. 3
JRob 2
Other 1

mr. synellinden
11-05-2018, 02:55 PM
T. Jones - 34

RJB - 34

Zanos - 32

Reddish - 30

DeLaurier - 21

Bolden - 16

AOC - 16

White - 11

Goldwire - 4

Vrank - 2

luvdahops
11-05-2018, 03:23 PM
Barrett 35
Jones 34
Reddish 32
Zion 30
DeLaurier 17
Bolden 16
AOC 14
White 11
Baker 5
Vrank 2
Goldwire 2
Robinson 2

timmy c
11-05-2018, 06:32 PM
Tre Jones: 33.5
RJ Barrett: 35
Cam Reddish: 30
Zion Williamson: 34
Javin DeLaurier: 18.5
Marques Bolden: 14.5
Jack White: 15.5
Alex O’Connell: 15.5
Jordan Goldwire: 1
Antonio Vrankovic: 1.5
Justin Robinson:1.5

Revision to include baker:
Tre Jones: 34
RJ Barrett: 35
Cam Reddish: 32
Zion Williamson: 34
Javin DeLaurier: 18.5
Marques Bolden: 14.5
Jack White: 10.5
Alex O’Connell: 15.5
Jordan Goldwire: 1.5
Antonio Vrankovic: 1.5
Justin Robinson: 2
Joey baker: 2

cbarry
11-05-2018, 08:14 PM
Here are my picks. Note, that I do NOT expect K to go beyond a 7-8 man rotation.



Tre Jones
31


RJ Barrett
28


Cam Reddish
29


Zion Williamson
31


Javin DeLaurier
22


Marquis Bolden
9


Jack White
10


Alex O'Connell
15


Jordan Goldwire
7


Antonio Vrancovic
4


Justin Robinson
10


Joey Baker
4


Mike Buckmire

0

Furniture
11-05-2018, 08:28 PM
Barrett 34
Jones 34
Reddish 32
Zion 32
DeLaurier 16
Jack 15
Bolden 13
AOC 12
Baker 8
Vrank 2
Goldwire 1
Robinson 1

Green Wave Dukie
11-05-2018, 10:27 PM
How about:

RJ - 34
Tre - 34
Zion - 31
Cam - 31
Javin - 18
Jack - 16
Marques - 14
Alex - 8
Joey - 6.5
Jordan - 3
Justin - 2.5
Antionio - 1
Mike - .5
Brennan - .5

David Bunkley
11-06-2018, 08:10 AM
RJ Barrett 32
Cam Reddish 31
Zion Williamson 31
Tre Jones 31
Javin DeLaurier 18
Marquis Bolden 15
Jack White 19
Alex O'Connell 15
Jordan Goldwire 5
Antonio Vrankovic 1
Justin Robinson 1
Others 1

curtis325
11-06-2018, 08:20 AM
Here's a guess. I'm hoping to not be last. Please somebody be worse than me.

Zion Williamson 32
Tre Jones 30
RJ Barrett 29
Cam Reddish 29
Javin DeLaurier 20
Alex O'Connell 14
Marquis Bolden 13
Jack White 11
Justin Robinson 9
Jordan Goldwire 6
Antonio Vrancovic 4
Joey Baker 3

Fish80
11-06-2018, 12:35 PM
Tre Jones 29
RJ Barrett 29
Cam Reddish 26
Zion Williamson 26
Javin DeLaurier 22
Marques Bolden 20
Alex O'Connell 20
Jack White 15
Joey Baker 7
Jordan Goldwire 2
Antonio Vrankovic 2
Justin Robinson 2

budwom
11-06-2018, 12:51 PM
Tre Jones 29
RJ Barrett 29
Cam Reddish 26
Zion Williamson 26
Javin DeLaurier 22
Marques Bolden 20
Alex O'Connell 20
Jack White 15
Joey Baker 7
Jordan Goldwire 2
Antonio Vrankovic 2
Justin Robinson 2

jeezum, I just can't imagine starters getting minutes that low...looking at the Duke site for last year, they had Allen at 36, Bagley 34, Trent34, Carter 27 and Duval 30.
I'll be stunned if our major four guys are anything less than low thirties...

Fish80
11-06-2018, 12:57 PM
jeezum, I just can't imagine starters getting minutes that low...looking at the Duke site for last year, they had Allen at 36, Bagley 34, Trent34, Carter 27 and Duval 30.
I'll be stunned if our major four guys are anything less than low thirties...

I'm banking on a plethora of blowouts!

budwom
11-06-2018, 01:11 PM
^ OK, blowouts are good!
I just imagine K will go to his Iron Six once we hit 2019 and the starters will play a whole lot...often when K gets in that mode, he doesn't clear the bench until just a few minutes are left, but who knows?

Troublemaker
11-06-2018, 01:18 PM
jeezum, I just can't imagine starters getting minutes that low...looking at the Duke site for last year, they had Allen at 36, Bagley 34, Trent34, Carter 27 and Duval 30.
I'll be stunned if our major four guys are anything less than low thirties...

One strategy to winning something like this is to have an entry that's different while everyone else dogpiles around the median. Theoretically, you'd have a higher chance of finishing in first place (and last place).

BullBlue
11-06-2018, 02:17 PM
RJ Barrett 34
Zion Williamson 32
Tre Jones 32
Cam Reddish 30
Jack White 17
Javin DeLaurier 16
Marquis Bolden 15
Alex O'Connell 10
Justin Robinson 4
Joey Baker 4
Jordan Goldwire 3
Antonio Vrankovic 2
All Others 1

Jack White is my sleeper for 5th most minutes. I think either Javin or Marquis will start most games, but Jack will log more minutes - ultimate glue guy.

House P
11-06-2018, 03:16 PM
One strategy to winning something like this is to have an entry that's different while everyone else dogpiles around the median. Theoretically, you'd have a higher chance of finishing in first place (and last place).

I wanted to take the approach described by Troublemaker, but had trouble coming up with many plausible scenarios* which would deviate all that much from the consensus. It seems to me that there is a pretty strong likelihood that the top 4 Freshmen will lead the team in minutes, while Marques, Javin, Alex, and Jack will battle for the next 4 spots on the depth chart. As such, the largest variation between picks will likely come from how people distribute the minutes between these two groups and predictions about Joey Baker (redshirt, meaningful minutes, token minutes).

Barrett 35
Jones 34
Zion 33
Reddish 28
Javin 20
White 16
Bolden 15
Alex 12
Goldwire 4
Baker 2
Vrank 2
Robinson 1

*In my mind, here are the most plausible scenarios where the minutes distribution end up significantly different from the consensus.

- A significant injury: I can't bring myself to predict this. Even if I could, I would be randomly guessing, anyway.

- Breakout season by a non-Freshmen: It seems somewhat plausible that one of the veterans has a Grayson/Luke-like breakout season and established himself as significantly better than the other guys expected to compete for the 5th stater. In this case, one of the "next 4" could end up averaging 25-30 mpg (potentially at the expense of one of the Freshmen).

- One of the top 4 Freshmen disappoints: We have seen highly rated Freshmen like Derrryk Thornton and Chase Jeter end up with smaller roles than conventional wisdom predicted. Based on what I've seen, I think there is essentially zero chance that RJ or Zion will disappoint. I suppose there is a very small chance that Cam, or especially Tre, ends up being solid, but not outstanding and ends up getting only 20-25 mpg.

- Surprise transfer: If one of the "next 4" players ends up completely outside the rotation, I could imagine a mid-season transfer. Jack and Javin are captains, so I don't see them transferring. That leaves Marques and Alex as potential, but unlikely, transfer candidates.

- Surprise redshirt: I almost predicted a Jordan Goldwire redshirt. However, Jordan isn't likely to get many minutes this year, so correctly guessing an unlikely redshirt probably wouldn't be enough to win the contest anyway.

elvis14
11-06-2018, 03:20 PM
Once I put in the winning entry, I don't understand why other entries continued to come in at all. When do I get pie?

Troublemaker
11-06-2018, 03:22 PM
Tre
32


RJ
32


Zion
31


Cam
30


Javin
28


Alex
20


Jack
14


Marques
4


JGold
3


Joey
3


Vrank
2


JRob
1

Troublemaker
11-06-2018, 03:26 PM
I wanted to take the approach described by Troublemaker, but had trouble coming up with many plausible scenarios* which would deviate all that much from the consensus. It seems to me that there is a pretty strong likelihood that the top 4 Freshmen will lead the team in minutes, while Marques, Javin, Alex, and Jack will battle for the next 4 spots on the depth chart. As such, the largest variation between picks will likely come from how people distribute the minutes between these two groups and predictions about Joey Baker (redshirt, meaningful minutes, token minutes).

Barrett 35
Jones 34
Zion 33
Reddish 28
Javin 20
White 16
Bolden 15
Alex 12
Goldwire 4
Baker 2
Vrank 2
Robinson 1

*In my mind, here are the most plausible scenarios where the minutes distribution end up significantly different from the consensus.

- A significant injury: I can't bring myself to predict this. Even if I could, I would be randomly guessing, anyway.

- Breakout season by a non-Freshmen: It seems somewhat plausible that one of the veterans has a Grayson/Luke-like breakout season and established himself as significantly better than the other guys expected to compete for the 5th stater. In this case, one of the "next 4" could end up averaging 25-30 mpg (potentially at the expense of one of the Freshmen).

- One of the top 4 Freshmen disappoints: We have seen highly rated Freshmen like Derrryk Thornton and Chase Jeter end up with smaller roles than conventional wisdom predicted. Based on what I've seen, I think there is essentially zero chance that RJ or Zion will disappoint. I suppose there is a very small chance that Cam, or especially Tre, ends up being solid, but not outstanding and ends up getting only 20-25 mpg.

- Surprise transfer: If one of the "next 4" players ends up completely outside the rotation, I could imagine a mid-season transfer. Jack and Javin are captains, so I don't see them transferring. That leaves Marques and Alex as potential, but unlikely, transfer candidates.

- Surprise redshirt: I almost predicted a Jordan Goldwire redshirt. However, Jordan isn't likely to get many minutes this year, so correctly guessing an unlikely redshirt probably wouldn't be enough to win the contest anyway.

Ha, I didn't see your post as I was in the middle of writing up my own prediction. But, I can say that I implemented 2 of your 5 scenarios

NSDukeFan
11-06-2018, 03:33 PM
Tre
32


RJ
32


Zion
31


Cam
30


Javin
28


Alex
20


Jack
14


Marques
4


JGold
3


Joey
3


Vrank
2


JRob
1



I don’t think putting your results in a pretty chart increases your chances of winning any. 😀

BandAlum83
11-06-2018, 03:34 PM
ok, I'll take a total stab:

Jones 34
Barrett 32
Zion 31
Reddish 28
Javin 14
White 16
Bolden 17
Alex 20
Goldwire 3
Baker 2
Vrank 2
Robinson 1

DallasDevil
11-07-2018, 10:37 AM
I'm banking on a plethora of blowouts!

Too early to give Fish80 the title? If last night is any indication, the starters averaging less than 30 minutes per game is not such a far-fetched idea.

Spanarkel
11-07-2018, 10:58 AM
Tre
32


RJ
32


Zion
31


Cam
30


Javin
28


Alex
20


Jack
14


Marques
4


JGold
3


Joey
3


Vrank
2


JRob
1



I highly respect your opinion on all things Duke Basketball, but I do have to question your thinking that Javin will log 28 mpg this season. Last year he fouled out of 5 games in 12/15/15/17 and 19 minutes. Last night he committed 4 fouls in 11 minutes.
Forget the pies, IF Javin manages to average 28 mpg this season I will buy you and your SO Super Bowel tickets for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in ATL.

Fish80
11-07-2018, 11:33 AM
Too early to give Fish80 the title? If last night is any indication, the starters averaging less than 30 minutes per game is not such a far-fetched idea.

It's a long season. Last night was great, but a lot more games to play.

Troublemaker
11-07-2018, 03:15 PM
I highly respect your opinion on all things Duke Basketball, but I do have to question your thinking that Javin will log 28 mpg this season. Last year he fouled out of 5 games in 12/15/15/17 and 19 minutes. Last night he committed 4 fouls in 11 minutes.
Forget the pies, IF Javin manages to average 28 mpg this season I will buy you and your SO Super Bowel tickets for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in ATL.

Spanarkel - one must take risks to win this competition, my friend, and that's what I did.

I admit -- it's not looking good for me after one game.

BUT, let's see how things play out from here. I DO expect that Javin will decrease his foul rate this season (despite getting off to a bad start against UK), and I do think he will eventually become the most trusted center on the team by Coach K over Marques.

We'll see if I'm right.

niveklaen
11-07-2018, 06:21 PM
One strategy to winning something like this is to have an entry that's different while everyone else dogpiles around the median. Theoretically, you'd have a higher chance of finishing in first place (and last place).

That was my thinking in giving AOC 4 times as many minutes as White. Looks like I am more likely to end up on the last place because of my 'strategic' selection.

kAzE
11-07-2018, 07:41 PM
Too early to give Fish80 the title? If last night is any indication, the starters averaging less than 30 minutes per game is not such a far-fetched idea.

Zion and Cam had a little bit of foul trouble, and Tre left the game early when he banged knees with Reid Travis. I think in a close game, both Tre and RJ easily play 35+ minutes, and Zion/Cam well over 30 each.

There's really no reason to have those 4 guys off the floor at all unless they are gassed, in foul trouble, or the game is essentially over.

But I'm starting to think I underestimated Jack's minutes (I guessed 14). I'm starting to think Jack might end up with the 5th highest minutes played on this team. He won't play 30 minutes usually, but when there's a bit of foul trouble going on with Cam and Zion, Jack is the guy who absorbs the minutes.

cbarry
03-08-2019, 09:26 PM
Does anybody know how this contest is going? Hopefully someone better at statistics than I has crunched the numbers...

CDu
03-08-2019, 10:23 PM
Does anybody know how this contest is going? Hopefully someone better at statistics than I has crunched the numbers...

Well, whomever factored in Jones missing ~3 games and Zion missing ~5 games and counting is probably doing pretty well.

cbarry
03-09-2019, 06:35 AM
I factored in RJ missing games, not necessarily Zion. Plus I gave Justin R way too many minutes, so I’m pretty much toast.
Well, whomever factored in Jones missing ~3 games and Zion missing ~5 games and counting is probably doing pretty well.

Neals384
03-21-2019, 12:02 AM
Barrett
34.98


Jones
31.84


Reddish
28.85


Williamson
24.94


White
20.60


Bolden
17.93


Delaurier
15.66


O'connell
13.36


Goldwire
7.56


Vrankovic
2.50


Robinson
1.51


Buckmire
0.37


Besser
0.32


Baker
0.32

Neals384
04-03-2019, 01:36 PM
Final minutes per game (total minutes divided by 38):




Min / Game


Barrett
35.33


Jones
32.44


Reddish
28.30


Williamson
26.18


White
18.57


Bolden
17.74


Delaurier
16.15


O'Connell
13.27


Goldwire
7.76


Vrankovic
2.36


Robinson
1.47


Baker
0.47


Buckmire
0.33


Besser
0.29






Total
200.66

cbarry
04-03-2019, 09:44 PM
I was way off on Justin (I don’t know WHAT I was thinking) and RJ (I knew at least 1 or 2 of our superstars would have a significant injury— just figured that would be RJ, not Zion).

otherwise, I was pretty close! Anyone tabulate all of the entries?

pfrduke
04-03-2019, 09:45 PM
I was way off on Justin (I don’t know WHAT I was thinking) and RJ (I knew at least 1 or 2 of our superstars would have a significant injury— just figured that would be RJ, not Zion).

otherwise, I was pretty close! Anyone tabulate all of the entries?

Will do the results soon.

MChambers
04-04-2019, 07:50 AM
Coach K wins again!

camion
04-04-2019, 07:55 AM
Coach K wins again!

Hmm...

I suspect insider subbing.

cbarry
04-18-2019, 03:18 PM
Will do the results soon.
Any update on the results, @pfrduke?

pfrduke
04-22-2019, 05:06 PM
Results! Congrats to jv001 for winning the contest. All in all we were more accurate this year than last year - last year's winning mark of being off by 31.5 total minutes would have been middle of the pack this year.




Jones
Barrett
Williamson
Reddish
Delaurier
White
Bolden
O'Connell
Goldwire
Vrankovic
Baker
Robinson
Other
Total


jv001
2.63
1.29
1.95
0.11
3.74
3.82
0.61
1.71
3.89
1.37
1.53
0.53
0.61
23.76


devilsince1977
0.63
1.29
2.95
0.89
3.74
4.82
0.61
0.29
3.89
0.37
3.53
0.53
0.61
24.13


David Bunkley
1.37
3.29
4.95
2.89
1.74
0.18
2.61
1.71
2.89
1.37
0.47
0.53
0.39
24.39


whereinthehellami
1.63
0.29
3.95
1.89
1.74
2.82
2.61
2.71
5.89
0.37
0.47
0.47
0.61
25.45


MChambers
0.37
2.29
3.95
1.11
3.74
4.82
3.39
0.29
3.89
0.63
0.47
0.47
0.39
25.82


House P
1.63
0.29
6.95
0.11
3.74
2.82
2.61
1.29
3.89
0.37
1.53
0.53
0.61
26.34


DCDevil9194
0.63
3.29
0.95
0.11
2.74
3.82
1.61
1.71
3.89
0.37
5.53
1.47
0.61
26.71


azzefkram
0.37
3.29
3.95
1.89
1.74
3.82
2.39
1.71
4.89
0.37
0.47
1.47
0.61
26.97


DallasDevil
0.63
0.29
6.95
4.89
0.26
4.82
0.39
2.29
4.89
0.37
0.47
0.47
0.61
27.34


BullBlue
0.37
1.29
5.95
1.89
0.26
1.82
2.61
3.29
4.89
0.37
3.53
2.47
0.39
29.13


flyingdutchdevil
0.63
1.29
2.95
0.89
6.74
1.82
4.61
2.71
5.89
0.37
0.47
0.47
0.61
29.45


DukieTiger
1.37
4.29
3.95
1.89
2.74
4.82
0.39
0.71
3.89
0.37
4.53
0.47
0.61
30.03


BandAlum83
1.63
3.29
4.95
0.11
2.26
2.82
0.61
6.71
4.89
0.37
1.53
0.53
0.61
30.29


Neals384
3.63
0.71
2.95
2.11
2.74
2.82
4.61
4.71
4.89
0.37
0.47
0.47
0.61
31.08


LaffPirate
0.63
3.29
3.95
0.89
3.74
6.82
0.39
4.71
3.89
1.37
0.47
1.47
0.39
32.03


luvdahops
1.63
0.29
3.95
3.89
0.74
7.82
1.61
0.71
5.89
0.37
4.53
0.47
0.61
32.50


Spanarkel
0.37
2.29
0.95
0.89
5.74
8.82
0.61
1.71
3.89
3.63
2.53
0.47
0.61
32.50


Matches
1.63
2.29
5.95
0.89
1.74
5.82
4.61
0.71
3.89
0.63
2.53
1.47
0.39
32.55


mr. snyellinden
1.63
1.29
5.95
1.89
4.74
7.82
1.61
2.71
3.89
0.37
0.47
1.53
0.61
34.50


HereBeforeCoachK
0.63
2.29
6.95
2.89
0.74
4.82
0.39
4.29
4.89
1.37
3.53
1.47
0.39
34.66


Gooch
0.63
1.29
5.95
2.89
3.74
2.82
3.61
1.29
4.89
2.37
2.53
1.53
1.39
34.92


Duke79UNLV77
0.37
1.29
6.95
1.89
2.74
4.82
1.61
0.71
5.89
2.37
3.53
1.53
1.39
35.08


luburch
1.63
0.29
5.95
3.89
3.74
9.82
1.61
2.71
4.89
0.63
0.47
1.53
0.61
37.76


sagegrouse
4.37
2.29
3.95
4.89
3.74
6.32
0.61
0.79
2.89
1.37
3.53
2.47
0.61
37.82


Green Wave Dukie
1.63
1.29
4.95
2.89
1.74
2.82
3.61
5.29
4.89
1.37
6.03
0.97
0.39
37.87


Furniture
1.63
1.29
5.95
3.89
0.26
3.82
4.61
1.29
6.89
0.37
7.53
0.53
0.61
38.66


timmy c
1.63
0.29
7.95
3.89
2.24
8.32
3.11
2.21
6.39
0.87
1.53
0.47
0.61
39.50


elvis14
3.37
3.29
2.95
0.11
2.74
8.82
2.61
3.71
1.89
0.63
8.53
0.47
0.39
39.50


NSDukeFan
2.37
3.29
3.95
1.89
4.74
7.82
2.39
0.29
5.89
0.37
6.53
0.47
0.61
40.61


arnie
3.63
0.29
8.95
1.89
3.74
9.82
1.61
2.71
6.89
1.37
0.47
0.53
0.61
42.50


kAzE
2.63
1.29
5.95
3.89
1.74
4.82
6.61
2.29
2.89
2.37
0.47
1.53
7.39
43.87


Fish80
3.37
6.29
0.05
2.11
5.74
3.82
2.39
6.71
5.89
0.37
6.53
0.47
0.61
44.34


curtis325
2.37
6.29
5.95
0.89
3.74
7.82
4.61
0.71
1.89
1.63
2.53
7.47
0.61
46.50


niveklaen
1.63
3.29
5.95
3.89
5.74
13.82
0.39
6.71
2.89
2.37
0.47
1.53
0.61
49.29


cbarry
1.37
7.29
4.95
0.89
5.74
8.82
8.61
1.71
0.89
1.63
3.53
8.47
0.61
54.50


Troublemaker
0.37
3.29
4.95
1.89
11.74
4.82
13.61
6.71
4.89
0.37
2.53
0.53
0.61
56.29

pfrduke
04-22-2019, 05:18 PM
Some notes from the results:


Everyone underestimated Goldwire's minutes. Goldwire had the third biggest average miss - the board collectively underestimated his minutes by 4.44
Everyone but one person (David Bunkley) underestimated White's minutes. White had the biggest average miss - the board collectively underestimated his minutes by 5.45
The shoe explosion meant that everyone but one person (Fish80) overestimated Zion's minutes. He ended up with the second biggest average miss - the board collectively overestimated his minutes by 4.73.

Had he not gotten injured, however, the board likely would have been right on. He averaged exactly 30 mpg in games he played, the board average was 30.78, and given where we were in our schedule, I suspect he would have played more than 30 mpg in those games, nudging the average up.


Everyone but one person (Neals384) underestimated R.J.'s minutes, but the collective average wasn't that far off because everyone had him pretty high. I think people are gunshy about both a) how many minutes the highest minutes player will play and b) who that will be (I don't expect b to be an issue for the 2019-20 contest and would be shocked if Tre is not unanimously projected to lead the team in minutes).
The board was right on for Tre's minutes - he averaged 32.37 mpg and the board average was 32.72.
The board average picks were off by 28.86 minutes, which would have finished 10th in our contest.
There were three double-digit errors in estimates - the biggest was niveklaen, who picked White for 5 mpg (he averaged 18.82); the next two were both by Troublemaker, who was off on picks for DeLaurier (27, actual 16.26) and Bolden (4, actual 17.61).

jv001
04-23-2019, 11:27 AM
It had to be luck for me to win any contest on DBR. There are so many more knowledgeable posters who I admire on here. And thanks to pfrduke for the work on this thread. Looking at the roster for 2019-2020 season, the minutes thread is going to be very interesting. GoDuke and 9F.

MChambers
04-23-2019, 01:26 PM
It had to be luck for me to win any contest on DBR. There are so many more knowledgeable posters who I admire on here. And thanks to pfrduke for the work on this thread. Looking at the roster for 2019-2020 season, the minutes thread is going to be very interesting. GoDuke and 9F.

Always thought jv001 was Coach K's handle here!

camion
04-23-2019, 01:37 PM
Always thought jv001 was Coach K's handle here!

I'm not a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination, but I always wondered how the supposed "injuries" to certain players always seemed to conveniently help jv001's minutes numbers. :confused:


Now I must go and adjust my hat; the tinfoil is a bit crinkled.

jv001
04-23-2019, 03:49 PM
I'm not a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination, but I always wondered how the supposed "injuries" to certain players always seemed to conveniently help jv001's minutes numbers. :confused:


Now I must go and adjust my hat; the tinfoil is a bit crinkled.

Hey, if I'm responsible for all the injuries, I'll not be in the minutes thread. :cool: We are due for an injury free season. GoDuke!

Furniture
04-23-2019, 09:27 PM
It had to be luck for me to win any contest on DBR. There are so many more knowledgeable posters who I admire on here. And thanks to pfrduke for the work on this thread. Looking at the roster for 2019-2020 season, the minutes thread is going to be very interesting. GoDuke and 9F.

WELL DONE SIR (Not allowed to spork you)....