PDA

View Full Version : Phase 0, 2018-19 season



Kedsy
10-19-2018, 12:11 AM
(Covers CTC and the two Exhibition Games, Virginia Union & Ferris St)

INTRO

Hello Duke Fans! The season is finally upon us, and our “Phase Series” is back. For the new members a little history:

Some 12-15 years ago, a poster by the name of “Jumbo” started breaking the season down into sections that he termed “Phases.” Jumbo had a brilliant basketball mind and he would select a few topics to discuss in each Phase, note things that stood out to him, detail how they went during the previous Phase and note things he would be looking for in the next Phase. It drove great discussion on the board, and that is our objective with this. Jumbo “retired” after the National Title in 2010, and since that time a committee of folks have taken the torch and kept it going. We don’t claim to be as good as Jumbo but we all love DBR and Duke Basketball and want to keep a good thing going.

This year we are making an attempt to evolve and do things slightly different. We are going to have two authors for each Phase, and each pair of authors have the freedom to be creative and set it up as they see fit. As we go along and the season progresses, any and all feedback is welcome! Again, our objective with this is to drive great discussion on the team, learn from each other, and of course help this team win lots of banners! :)

For Phase 0, picture two old geezers (Newton_14 and Kedsy) on the set in DBR Headquarters (at an undisclosed location), sitting in armchairs having a discussion about the prospects for the 2018-19 Blue Devils over a couple of adult beverages. ;)

Kedsy (taking sip of brown ale): OK, here goes. For the 10th straight year, Duke opens its men's basketball season with two exhibition games, one against the reigning NCAA Division II Champion, and the other against the reigning CIAA champion. On Tuesday, October 23, defending CIAA winner Virginia Union is the opponent, while last year's Division-II national champ, Ferris State University, comes to Durham on Saturday, October 27.

N_14 Caution to any and all that try to discern anything related to the expected rotation when watching these two games!! History has shown that both the starting lineup and rotation during these games don’t mean squat. Example: 2014-15 season. Quinn Cook doesn’t start either exhibition game. Oh the horror! “Well there you go! Rasheed and Tyus have locked down the starting backcourt positions!!” NOT!. Do not let K trick you this season! Sorry but had to get that in there!

HEALTH

Kedsy: Several of our recent seasons have been derailed by health issues. This year, we’ve already had a series of injuries and it isn’t even CTC yet! Tre (hip) and Cam (foot) got hurt over the summer, Alex had his face broken on the first play up in Canada, and Marques and Javin in their two years here have been regulars on the street-clothes circuit. Let’s hope we’re getting it all out early, but it might be another bumpy ride.

N_14 I know many DBR folks do not like this category but unfortunately history shows we need to keep this as the top category. It does appear most of the guys have gotten back close to 100% but for sure health is something to watch for the entire season. Regarding Cam, I actually spoke to him at Zaxby’s in August. He was wearing the boot but when I asked he assured me it was precautionary and in his mind he was good to go if needed. Hopefully all will be ready for Kentucky.

Kedsy
10-19-2018, 12:14 AM
OFFENSE

Kedsy Let’s talk about offense. First, let’s face it, as long as Coach K’s here, Duke’s offense is going to be good. Like, really good. Last year, Pomeroy rated our offense #3 in the country. That was the 10th straight year in which our Pomeroy offensive rating ranked in the nation’s top 8. I have no doubt it will be up there again in 2018-19. The real question is how are we going to do it this season?

N_14 Funny how times have changed. Back in the day Duke’s calling card was defense. Guys like Billy King, Brian Davis, Chris Carrawell, Shane Battier, etc., would just shut you down. But the game has changed and so has K. This team will score in bunches, run the floor and push the pace, drive it, etc. I know there is concern about having enough shooters to space the floor, but in my opinion we will be solid from 3. Solid enough at least to where our slashers can have enough space.

Kedsy On one level, I think the shooting is a legitimate concern. Yeah, we were playing without Tre Jones, Cam Reddish, and Alex O’Connell in Canada, but we were also playing far inferior opponents, and we shot a paltry 31.7% from three-land.

N_14 I don’t think Canada was a good measure of shooting capability for many reasons actually. Alex can shoot it no question in my mind. Reports from early practices are that Cam has shot it really well, and also that RJ has really improved his shot. I don’t think we should sleep on Zion either, and of course Baker can shoot it if he is on the floor. Something to watch for in these early games-> Jack White. Jack just might surprise a lot of people this season and become solid in the traditional “3 and D” role (but add rebounding as well). Pie bets anyone?

Kedsy Ah, the legend of Jack White. We’ll talk more about Jack when we get to the rotation portion of this phase post. It’s worth noting, however, that Jack White is a career 21% 3-point shooter at the college level, albeit in not very many attempts.

N_14 One other very important thing to consider is that you cannot place a value on having a top notch PG that will be there to set up shooters and get them the ball in their “happy space.” Tre is going to improve our shooting percentage in my view.

Kedsy Hold that thought, we’ll get to the value of a true point guard in a minute. I have a couple more points about shooting. First, it’s worth noting that last year’s team didn’t have many shooters, either, but still managed to take 36.3% of its shots from long distance and to make 37.2% of them. Which isn’t great, but isn’t bad, either. With the ballhandlers and drivers we have this year, I think we’ll be fine shooting-wise, so long as we mostly take open shots in rhythm.

An interesting thing about Duke’s offense, is that we’re often more successful when we take fewer three-point shots. Here’s a table showing what percentage of our shots have been three-pointers going back to 1998:



Year NCAA %threes
2001 1 41.8%
2016 16 39.8%
2005 16 39.8%
2014 64 39.7%
2008 32 39.2%
2012 64 38.6%
2017 32 38.3%
2002 16 37.6%
1997 32 36.8%
2018 8 36.3%
2011 16 35.3%
2006 16 35.2%
2009 16 35.0%
2000 16 34.2%
2003 16 33.9%
2015 1 33.4%
2004 4 33.4%
2013 8 33.3%
1996 64 33.0%
2010 1 32.9%
1998 8 32.4%
1999 2 30.5%
2007 64 29.6%


While it’s true that the highest percentage was in a championship year (2001) and the lowest percentage was a first-round exit (2007), it’s also true that six of the eight Duke teams who shot the lowest number of threes (as a percentage of shots) have made the Elite Eight or better. If it’s a good shot, a player at this level can hit it.

N_14 Interesting stats but I love your last thought. I have always maintained there are good 3’s and bad 3’s, good 3’s tend to go in at a high rate and bad 3’s tend to miss at a high rate. I can delve deeper into what makes a 3 good or bad in a later post if anyone is interested. But let’s talk about the thing or things that excite the most about this team’s offense. That being fast break ability, and slashing ability. With Zion, RJ, and Cam, we have 3 guys that can attack the rim in ways few other players can. This team I believe will play fast, get a lot of at the rim looks and draw a tremendous amount of fouls.

Kedsy Tre Jones has also been known to drive into the lane. So your point makes a lot of sense. I’m wait-and-see on this, though, because against vastly inferior opponents in Canada, we only had a 26.5% FT rate. Which is not that good. However, especially since Coach K has been talking about a “5-out” offense (with all five guys starting each set out on the perimeter), this team does seem designed to drive and draw fouls.

N_14 One quick point on the FT rate in Canada. The defenders mostly did not challenge shots once they saw they were beat, however, Power 5 team defenders will certainly challenge at the rim and I believe that rate will go up. Let’s track it in these first couple of Phases.

Kedsy And, of course, in Canada we were missing one of our slashers and our point guard. So let’s talk about the magic of a “true” point guard. It’s great to have one, but I’ve often wondered if the value of such a being is overstated. For instance, I assume you don’t think we’ve had a PG of Tre’s caliber every year, but as I said earlier, we’ve had a top 8 offense in each of the past 10 years. How do you explain that?

N_14 I will beg to differ on this one my friend, sorry. I have always been told that PGs, QBs, and Shortstops are born. The rest of the athletic population learns to play a position. I believe that. Watching Tyus I saw something I had not seen since really, Bobby Hurley. Tyus had the magic PG sixth sense…. Even the area or lane he chose when bringing the ball up the court to initiate the offense you could see his mind was processing data and he was seeing something no one else saw. The suddenly he makes a pass that leads to a pass for an easy bucket by the 3 guy. That’s what PGs do. The question is was Tre born a PG like his brother or did he learn to play PG? We will have to see once he gets going.

Kedsy Well, my question is, all that may be true, but what does it get you? Our 2015 team was the 3rd best offense in the country (according to Pomeroy). The team had a 56.8% eFG%. Our team last season, presumably a team that did not have the unicorn, was (wait for it) the 3rd best offense in the country, and had a 55.9% eFG%. Doesn’t seem much of a difference to me.

N_14 Fair point, however a lot of times those normal guys that have to learn a position end up learning very well and get the job done. I credit 4th year Senior Grayson for a lot of that plus we had a unicorn in Bagley.

Kedsy All true, which is kind of my point. Great players tend to play great. There are lots of ways to have good offense without a true point. And you need more than a true point to play good offense. Fortunately for Duke, we’re going to have both this year, so I guess we might as well enjoy Tre while he’s here.

The last point on offense I want to bring up is offensive rebounding. It’s no secret that Duke teams that rebound well offensively tend to be really good teams. Ten (10) of our top 11 offensive rebounding teams (in Duke history, since they started compiling the stat in 1987) have made the Elite Eight or better, including last year’s team, which was the best offensive rebounding team in the country. If we play a starting lineup of a point guard, three wings, and a skinny power forward, are we going to get hurt in this important area?

N_14 Offensive rebounding will certainly drop from last year. I think that’s a given. How far will it drop remains to be seen. I would mark this as one a potential weakness as of right now.

Kedsy Yeah, we’ll have to see, I guess. It’s worth noting that according to his offensive rebounding percentage, Javin was the best offensive rebounder on last year’s team (and Marques was pretty good too). If RJ and Zion and Cam (all of whom will usually be either taller or heavier than whoever is guarding them) can slash in for offensive boards, we might not have so much of a drop off in this area as it would at first appear. In Canada (again, allowing for the fact that we were a LOT better than our opponents), our team offensive rebounding percentage was a robust 45.5%.

Kedsy
10-19-2018, 12:16 AM
DEFENSE

N_14 Defense well… I think say goodbye to the zone as our primary defense (thank God). I really like this team’s defensive potential, especially pressuring the ball anywhere on the perimeter. I look forward to seeing our forced turnover rate going up. It will need to actually because rim protection is my personal biggest concern for this team. I am president of the Bolden Fan Club but at this point I see Javin as the 5th starter. If Duke is going to be good at rim protection Bolden has to be a big part of that. He is the only true big that could get rotation level minutes.

Kedsy Wow, you brought up a lot of good points in just a few sentences. Let’s start with rim protection. Some of Duke’s best defensive teams didn’t have any rim protectors -- granted many of those teams were in the 80s and early 90s, but also the 2001 and 2002 teams didn’t have dominant shotblockers, nor did the 2015 team that played pretty good defense by the end of the season, or the 2010 team that had a top 5 defense. It’s not necessary to have a shotblocker. But it is necessary to keep teams from getting high-percentage shots (either around the rim or open threes) and to force a lot of turnovers. One of my big questions, which you also mentioned, is whether we’re going to be able to force TOs.

N_14 Oh don’t get me wrong, we can and likely will be a good defensive team with the guys we have. Especially if Bolden steps up and is a mainstay in the rotation. Even if he doesn’t, this team has a lot of potential on the defensive end. I envision a defense that is up in the shorts of every guy on the perimeter making their life hell whether it be trying to make a pass, trying to drive, or trying to get off a good shot in 30 seconds. That’s the potential I see. What do you think?

Kedsy Well, you’ve set out the ideal, and I think the team might be able to reach it. For example, up in Canada (again, with the usual caveats), we held opponents to a 41.1% eFG%, which is really good. But I keep coming back to forcing turnovers. This used to be the mainstay of the dreaded Duke defense -- and not only in the 80s and early 90s. We had really strong turnover percentages from 1997 to 2009. But for the past several years, we’ve been approximately abysmal at this. In each of the past three seasons, our turnover percentage has been a below-average 17.2%. Even against the subpar competition in Canada, we only managed to force turnovers on 19.4% of opposing possessions. Compare that to as late as 2009, when we forced TOs on 24.7% of possessions for the entire season. We were missing Tre and Cam in those games, but will the two of them really improve our ability to force turnovers? I don’t know.

N_14 All good points and I agree we have to improve the TO percentage. A must. Let’s move to defensive rebounding though. I am reminded of a game against unc in 1999 where our athletes were killing unc’s big men on the boards. Just dominating. I can see this team being similar. With Zion, Javin, Cam, RJ, Marques and even Jack White, there are a lot guys that can go up in traffic and snatch defensive rebounds. I see this as a potential plus for this team.

Kedsy Yeah, I think the key is going to be our perimeter guys making a consistent effort to rebound on the defensive end. Both Cam and RJ will often be bigger than the guy they’re guarding, as well as stronger and quicker. They have to remember to go for the ball once a shot goes up. We crushed our Canadian opponents on the d-boards to the tune of 77.9%.

Another thing you brought up in your initial comment was whether we will play zone or m2m defense. I know how much you hate the zone, and the initial word from Coach K is that this year’s team will be a m2m team, but I also think this team could be pretty good in a zone. We have a lot of quick players with long arms, kind of perfect for an active zone. I wonder how willing Coach K will be to switch gears and change from man to zone, if the team goes into a defensive slump? Or whether this team could be the kind of team that switches defenses several times during an individual game to throw off the opposing offense?

N_14 Yeah I do hate the zone however like you point out these guys have what it takes to harass teams with a zone and I do think K will use zone in certain cases maybe even during every game to change things up, but no way will zone be our primary this season. Again though, if we are in zone and Bolden is not out there, who protects the rim? I am also interested in seeing them in full court zone press ala the Battier years. This team has some guys that might just be able to be good at it. We’ll see.

Kedsy Hmm. Every year Coach K seems to promise us some full court or three-quarters court press. Doesn’t ever seem to happen, though. A more pertinent question might be how are we going to defend the pick-and-roll? In recent years, we’ve done some icing, with mixed success, and Marques Bolden actually seems pretty good at hedging. But I remember listening to Bobby Knight once say that K’s perfect team is five 6’8” guys who can switch every screen. And this team might be the closest he’s ever come. Especially when Javin is playing center, or when Zion is playing the 5 in a super-small lineup, this team will be able to switch almost every screen (the exception being Tre switching onto a big center, which could be problematic). If we can successfully switch most screens, m2m defense looks a lot more attractive.

The last defensive point I’d like to make is to address the old adage that freshmen can’t play good defense. What do you think about that?

N_14 I think it goes back to the fact the game has changed drastically for one; two when we went all in with OAD K actually stopped trying to put the full Duke D as we know it in place. He adapted. Three, these kids today come in with so much experience. With AAU and especially USA Basketball the kids come in far more advanced including on the defensive end. So I think the idea freshman cannot play Duke Defense is not as valid as it once was.

Kedsy Honestly I’m not sure if it was ever valid. Grant Hill, Shane Battier, Chris Duhon, among others, could all play defense as freshmen. But I was curious, so I went back the 17 years that Pomeroy has ranked NCAA defenses, and charted that against the % of freshmen minutes played by Duke. Here’s the table:



Year %frosh PomDRk
2018 67.5% 9
2015 50.0% 11
2016 47.0% 86
2003 37.3% 15
2007 36.5% 6
2017 33.4% 47
2006 32.6% 16
2008 26.4% 7
2012 23.8% 79
2013 23.6% 26
2014 19.8% 86
2004 15.8% 3
2010 14.8% 5
2005 12.3% 2
2011 10.9% 9
2009 10.5% 28
2002 9.7% 1


Sure, five of our lowest six teams, in terms of fewest freshmen minutes, were top 10 defenses, BUT four of our top five teams in terms of most freshmen minutes, were top 15 defenses too. There doesn’t seem to be a correlation.

Last season, freshmen played a whopping 67.5% of our minutes, and we ended up the #9 defense in the country. Some players play defense and some don’t. The idea that having lots of freshmen precludes good defense is an indefensible (pun intended) canard, in my opinion.

Kedsy
10-19-2018, 12:17 AM
INTANGIBLES

N_14 I guess it will not be a surprise that for me the top intangible is how will the freshmen and the upperclassmen mesh, both on the court and off the court. It matters. A lot. The best we have seen obviously was the “Eight is Enough” team in 2015. Those guys set egos aside from Day 1 and genuinely fell in love with each other. Not surprising they won the Title. The 2017 team I feel struggled in this area a little bit. How will this team mesh? It may take several games before we get a feel for this team’s chemistry, but so far from what little exposure we have had, they are at least off to a good start.

Kedsy I think this is an area where the Canada trip probably really helped. That kind of trip is designed to help guys get to know each other. And from accounts I’ve seen, the guys really enjoyed each other’s company. Also, the fact that the non-freshmen are pretty much all supporting type players will help, because on the court at least, those guys have made a career out of meshing.

N_14 Great point on supporting players. None of them will for example “demand the ball” in crunch time. They will defer to RJ, Zion, Cam, and Tre, and that is a good thing. They know their roles and will stay in their lanes.

Kedsy I agree. And that might be why Coach K has made a big deal about “celebrating” role players and bench players, because he wants the guys who have been here to realize he values them, even though they don’t get the ball or get to be “the man” on the court.

But what can we expect to result from K’s declaration of love for his bench? Will he expand his rotation to get these “celebrated” players into the game? Well, here’s my hot take: he doesn’t mean it. Or, more accurately, he means it but he doesn’t mean what you think he means. In competitive games, Tre, RJ, Cam, and Zion will each play close to 35 minutes. Javin and Marques will play only at the 5 and will split minutes in the low 30s (with the remaining 5 to 8 5-position minutes going to Zion in a Golden State-style “Death Lineup”). AOC, Jack White, Joey Baker (if he doesn’t redshirt), and possibly (but not likely) Jordan Goldwire, will split the 25 or so backup perimeter minutes, with AOC getting the largest share. Basically, the same 7-man rotation we’ve always had. Absent injury, I’ll be shocked if it happens any other way.

N_14 This is the year!!! (That K plays 9-10 man rotation?) No silly rabbit. That N_14 finally finally finally comes to terms with the fact K is only going to play 6-7 guys the bulk of the minutes in games that matter. So you are right. Only question is which of the guys end up being number 8.

Kedsy Cue the Jack White theme song. He’s getting talked up a lot, by Coach K and others, so I guess it’s possible that Jack gets a bigger role this season, but if he averages more than 5 mpg in competitive games I’ll be surprised. Ultimately the talent vs. experience argument almost always comes down on the talent side. It’s nice to have both, but if you can only have one, the most talented players play the best. And let’s face it, RJ, Cam, Zion, and Tre are the most talented members of our 2018-19 roster. They’re the ones who are going to play.

N_14 That leaves Leadership for me as the last question in the category. Let’s face it, there is a reason we don’t have captains yet. I’m almost certain that RJ will be a captain and that the leaders of this team will come mostly from the freshmen with Javin/Jack rising to the top of the leadership totem pole from the upperclassmen. I expect 3 captains. I also expect RJ and Zion will be strong leaders on this team.

Kedsy From what I’ve read, RJ is the undisputed alpha on the court. But I’ve also read that Javin and Marques are doing a lot of leading off the court and are being very verbal on it, especially on defense. If we have three captains, I think it’ll be those three (though I guess it’s possible that your nomination of Jack will take the day). Javin’s and Marques’s (and Jack's) leadership is important, though, because they know the “Duke way” and it’s good that the freshmen apparently look up to them.

RJ also has a reputation of being a stone cold killer on the court, and I think that’s a good thing, too. Every year we wonder if the team has that “killer instinct” that allows them to put away a team after we build a lead. Some teams have it, other teams let the opponent hang around and end up with a few too many losses because of it. Does this team have it? No idea. But the way people talk about RJ, we just might.

N_14 This is definitely a wait and see thing. The potential is there but bottom line is how bad do these guys want it? I go back again to the Battier teams. No lead was large enough. They just simply wanted to bury you, do it early, and never let you think you had a shot to beat them. I miss those type teams. Please let 2018-19 be a throwback team in that regard. We won’t know the answer until well into Phase 2...maybe later.

Kedsy We hope you enjoyed our phase post. GO DUKE!!!

MChambers
10-19-2018, 08:56 AM
Great Phase O post! You've got me fired up for the season.

I generally agree with all of your thoughts. I'm intrigued by Kedsy's table about freshman and defense, but I'm still skeptical about this team's defense. Hope they prove me wrong. Would be really nice to have a team that forces turnovers, especially with how devastating this team should be in the open court.

Billy Dat
10-19-2018, 09:25 AM
Great work, fellas. I like the dialogue format. You are DBR's own "Pardon the Interruption"...which of you is Wilbon and which is Kornheiser?

The chemistry piece really intrigues me. While 2015 is lauded as having great chemistry, you also hear stories about Winslow being a complete enigma who wouldn't talk to his roomate, Grayson, for the first month of school and was not exactly a guy who loved to hang with his teammates. K always seems to say that everyone likes each other. It's obvious that RJ and Zion are very close and Zion seems comfortable to let RJ shine. I worry a bit about Reddish who is projected as a top 5 pick and doesn't have nearly the high profile of his other two top 5 pick classmates. I want to watch that on-court chemistry closely.

I also have my eye on K...he's got coaches in different positions, C-Well is back, the NBA G-League announcement will surely complicate the current recruiting effort, he'll be asked about the Adidas trial a bunch at the start of the season...will be an challenging year for our leader who, since he's named no captains, is the big C captain.

NSDukeFan
10-19-2018, 12:58 PM
Nicely done guys. I liked the dialogue format and the history refresher. Based on the timeline, i’m glad Jumbo was here for Scheyer’s national championship as a player.
I don’t have any major disagreements and agree that every year is the year the team is deeper, will run more, will press more and everyone really likes each other. I would be surprised if this team creates a lot of turnovers based on recent history, but I would be happy to see our big freshmen wings (and Tre and Javin) able to generate enough pressure to change that. I also expect pressure and running and depth (except against Kentucky) until ACC play begins, when the board will have a mini-meltdown when this team struggles on the road in ACC play after the Christmas break.

kAzE
10-19-2018, 02:24 PM
Very interesting format for the first phase post this year, guys.

On the subject of the small lineup and/or bench rotation: I've been banging the drum for Jack White a long time, so no reason to stop now . . .

I think he will the 6th man in the rotation, ahead of Alex O'Connell. I'm very aware that this is probably not the popular opinion, and it shouldn't be, based on their respective RSCI rankings, etc.

But hear me out. Jack just fits with the 4 freshman the best, out of anyone on the roster. Alex O'Connell is without a doubt a more skilled and offensively polish player than Jack White. Jack is bigger, he's a very good rebounder for his size, he's an adequate finisher, and never, ever needs the ball in his hands, which is a HUGE plus when your 4 best players are all ball-dominant players on offense. I don't view Jack as a better shooter than Alex. They are probably on the same level as shooters in my mind, but in terms of ball handling, quickness, and overall skill level, Alex is the better offensive talent, no question.

However, aside from shooting, we don't need those other things from the 5th guy on the floor when your top 4 guys are Tre, Cam, RJ, and Zion. Ball handling has very bad diminishing returns when you're getting to your 4th or 5th guys, because there's only 1 ball, but 5 players. Therefore, the 5th guy in that lineup needs to provide value and occupy a niche outside of what those 4 freshman are good at. "Glue guy" attributes (rebounding, getting to loose balls, defending out of position, knocking down open shots, and providing toughness) will be much more valuable at that position than another ball handler/shot creator.

I acknowledge it's likely a hot take, but I think Javin will be the 5th starter, and I think Jack will play about as many minutes as Javin off the bench as the 6th man. I'm not just saying this because I once predicted Jack White would be a rotation player in his 3rd year (although I think that prediction looks pretty good at this point :p), it's because of the basketball fit with our 4 best players. If 2 of our best freshmen guys were also 3 and D non-ball handler types, then yeah, Alex would get the clear nod, because his guard skills would benefit the team more, but I think Jack is just the right guy to play with Zion, RJ, Cam, and Tre.

IMO, Alex would be much more valuable as one of the primary scorers/shot creators on a 2nd unit, while RJ and/or Cam are resting, because then, we can give him more reign to operate as a focal point on offense rather than the 5th option.

Ideally, Jack will able to space the floor, he won't ever need the ball, and does all the dirty work. Javin will be similar as another glue guy, but instead of outside shooting, he will contribute through his activity in the paint, especially protecting the rim.

Kedsy
10-19-2018, 02:33 PM
Very interesting format for the first phase post this year, guys.

On the subject of the small lineup and/or bench rotation: I've been banging the drum for Jack White a long time, so no reason to stop now . . .

I think he will the 6th man in the rotation, ahead of Alex O'Connell. I'm very aware that this is probably not the popular opinion, and it shouldn't be, based on their respective RSCI rankings, etc.

But hear me out. Jack just fits with the 4 freshman the best, out of anyone on the roster. Alex O'Connell is without a doubt a more skilled and offensively polish player than Jack White. I don't even view Jack as a better shooter than Alex. They are probably on the same level as shooters in my mind, but in terms of ball handling, quickness, and overall skill level, Alex is better.

However, aside from shooting, we don't need those other things from the 5th guy on the floor when your top 4 guys are Tre, Cam, RJ, and Zion. Ball handling has very bad diminishing returns when you're getting to your 4th or 5th guys, because there's only 1 ball, but 5 players. Therefore, the 5th guy in that lineup needs to provide value and occupy a niche outside of what those 4 freshman are good at. "Glue guy" attributes (rebounding, getting to loose balls, defending out of position, and knocking down open shots) will be much more valuable at that position than another ball handler/shot creator.

I acknowledge it's likely a hot take, but I think Javin will be the 5th starter, and I think Jack will play about as many minutes as Javin off the bench as the 6th man. I'm not just saying this because I once predicted Jack White would be a rotation player in his 3rd year (although I think that prediction looks pretty good at this point :p), it's because of the basketball fit with our 4 best players. If 2 of our best freshmen guys were also 3 and D non-ball handler types, then yeah, Alex would get the clear nod, because his guard skills would benefit the team more, but I think Jack is just the right guy to play with Zion, RJ, Cam, and Tre. Ideally, he will able to space the floor, he won't ever need the ball, and does all the dirty work.

I agree that Jack is better than Alex at defensive hustle stats and much better at rebounding, but last season Alex shot 48.9% from three-point range and Jack shot 16.7% from three. Granted, Jack's three-point shooting last season was in only 12 attempts, but even in Canada, when Jack had 17 three-point attempts in three games, he only shot 35%.

I don't think Alex and Jack are anywhere close to the same level, shooting-wise.

kAzE
10-19-2018, 02:45 PM
I agree that Jack is better than Alex at defensive hustle stats and much better at rebounding, but last season Alex shot 48.9% from three-point range and Jack shot 16.7% from three. Granted, Jack's three-point shooting last season was in only 12 attempts, but even in Canada, when Jack had 17 three-point attempts in three games, he only shot 35%.

I don't think Alex and Jack are anywhere close to the same level, shooting-wise.

Agreed, Alex has obviously been better in real games. It's a shame we weren't able to see what Alex could do in the Canada games.

However, I don't think Jack's playing time (3rd on the team) was just a fluke, either. We will see if the 70% shooting from 3 in practice and all the coach hype on Jack pans out. If he shoots in the high 30s (37%+) in real games, I think he will be ahead of Alex in the rotation.

Bob Green
10-21-2018, 02:54 PM
Excellent job on the Phase 0 post! I finally pulled myself away from my football obsession long enough to read it. My two big hopes heading into the season are:

1. The team stays healthy

2. The freshman can play defense

superdave
10-22-2018, 08:30 PM
This Espn+ Insider article says Alex has improved a lot and should play a larger role this season.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/25010795/duke-blue-devils-practice-lessons-learned

That is a good development, for depth and for 3 point shooting.


OFFENSE

Kedsy On one level, I think the shooting is a legitimate concern. Yeah, we were playing without Tre Jones, Cam Reddish, and Alex O’Connell in Canada, but we were also playing far inferior opponents, and we shot a paltry 31.7% from three-land.

N_14 I don’t think Canada was a good measure of shooting capability for many reasons actually. Alex can shoot it no question in my mind. Reports from early practices are that Cam has shot it really well, and also that RJ has really improved his shot. I don’t think we should sleep on Zion either, and of course Baker can shoot it if he is on the floor. Something to watch for in these early games-> Jack White. Jack just might surprise a lot of people this season and become solid in the traditional “3 and D” role (but add rebounding as well). Pie bets anyone?

Kedsy Ah, the legend of Jack White. We’ll talk more about Jack when we get to the rotation portion of this phase post. It’s worth noting, however, that Jack White is a career 21% 3-point shooter at the college level, albeit in not very many attempts.

superdave
10-22-2018, 08:36 PM
Marques in 2018, personal fouls per 40 minutes: 4.3

In conference play: 2.6

Javin in 2018, personal fouls per 40 minutes: 7.1

In conference play: 7.8

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2018.html#all_per_min

This is going to matter a lot this year.


DEFENSE

N_14 Defense well… I think say goodbye to the zone as our primary defense (thank God). I really like this team’s defensive potential, especially pressuring the ball anywhere on the perimeter. I look forward to seeing our forced turnover rate going up. It will need to actually because rim protection is my personal biggest concern for this team. I am president of the Bolden Fan Club but at this point I see Javin as the 5th starter. If Duke is going to be good at rim protection Bolden has to be a big part of that. He is the only true big that could get rotation level minutes.

Kedsy Wow, you brought up a lot of good points in just a few sentences. Let’s start with rim protection. Some of Duke’s best defensive teams didn’t have any rim protectors -- granted many of those teams were in the 80s and early 90s, but also the 2001 and 2002 teams didn’t have dominant shotblockers, nor did the 2015 team that played pretty good defense by the end of the season, or the 2010 team that had a top 5 defense. It’s not necessary to have a shotblocker. But it is necessary to keep teams from getting high-percentage shots (either around the rim or open threes) and to force a lot of turnovers. One of my big questions, which you also mentioned, is whether we’re going to be able to force TOs.

N_14 Oh don’t get me wrong, we can and likely will be a good defensive team with the guys we have. Especially if Bolden steps up and is a mainstay in the rotation. Even if he doesn’t, this team has a lot of potential on the defensive end. I envision a defense that is up in the shorts of every guy on the perimeter making their life hell whether it be trying to make a pass, trying to drive, or trying to get off a good shot in 30 seconds. That’s the potential I see. What do you think?

Kedsy Well, you’ve set out the ideal, and I think the team might be able to reach it. For example, up in Canada (again, with the usual caveats), we held opponents to a 41.1% eFG%, which is really good. But I keep coming back to forcing turnovers. This used to be the mainstay of the dreaded Duke defense -- and not only in the 80s and early 90s. We had really strong turnover percentages from 1997 to 2009. But for the past several years, we’ve been approximately abysmal at this. In each of the past three seasons, our turnover percentage has been a below-average 17.2%. Even against the subpar competition in Canada, we only managed to force turnovers on 19.4% of opposing possessions. Compare that to as late as 2009, when we forced TOs on 24.7% of possessions for the entire season. We were missing Tre and Cam in those games, but will the two of them really improve our ability to force turnovers? I don’t know.

Kedsy
10-24-2018, 12:13 AM
First exhibition game stats:

OFFENSE:

oRtg: 1.38 ppp (strong, even against weak competition)
eFG%: 68.4% (ditto)
2pt%: 73.0% (ditto)
3pt%: 41.9% (really good; much better than it looked watching the game)
%threes: 45.6% (way too many threes for this team, but if you're hitting 42%, why not)
FT rate: 27.9% (not great; this team should draw more fouls)
OR%: 46.9% (very good; similar to Canada -- maybe this team will be a good offensive rebounding team, after all)
TO%: 19.6% (a little high, but it was the first game that the team all played together)
A/to ratio: 2:1 (really good)
%assisted: 75% (really good)
fast break points: 20.8% of points (very good)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.83 ppp (better than it looked)
eFG%: 43.4% (pretty good, considering)
2pt%: 40.4% (good)
3pt%: 35.7% (acceptable)
%threes: 24.6% (strong; we kept them off the line while also limiting their 2-point%)
FTR: 24.6% (acceptable)
DR%: 62.5% (weak, especially against this competition; bordering on concerning)
TO%: 30.0% (super strong; makes up for the anemic defensive rebounding)
A/to ratio: 0.39: 1 (very strong)
%assisted: 37.5% (strong)
Block%: 11.4% (15.2% counting only 2-point shots)
fast break points: 15.6% (too high; transition defense probably our biggest defensive weakness in this game)


Well, in our phase post we hoped 3-point shooting and turnovers forced would both go up, and they did. Can't really tell much against this level of competition, but I say so far so good.

AGDukesky
10-24-2018, 08:30 AM
I was very pleased with the defensive effort. Va Union is well-coached and took advantage of any mistake. Sure there were some breakdowns in transition but the opponent was incredibly opportunistic. This was a great experience for the team and gives plenty for the coaches to address. The commentators discussed how last year’s roster just wasn’t made up the way K likes. This team seems perfect for his style and will be much more comfortable to watch. It just always felt like we were a bit off with the two post players and a PG who didn’t know his role. This feels more like a classic Duke team where we can play suffocating defense and move the ball around on offense. I’m pretty excited after seeing the team play a real game...

whereinthehellami
10-24-2018, 09:19 AM
Kedsy - Thanks for the stats, really interesting and informative!


I was very pleased with the defensive effort. Va Union is well-coached and took advantage of any mistake. Sure there were some breakdowns in transition but the opponent was incredibly opportunistic. This was a great experience for the team and gives plenty for the coaches to address. The commentators discussed how last year’s roster just wasn’t made up the way K likes. This team seems perfect for his style and will be much more comfortable to watch. It just always felt like we were a bit off with the two post players and a PG who didn’t know his role. This feels more like a classic Duke team where we can play suffocating defense and move the ball around on offense. I’m pretty excited after seeing the team play a real game...

I agree with most of the above. I was concerned with the defense, especially the uncontested looks. I get that it is early and there were blown assignments galore but there was some plays where a Duke player didn't even contest. Not a fan of that and can't imagine Coach is/was. I do feel better after hearing Coach say that a lot of the first half defense issues were on him and were fixed after adjusting out of the press.

This should be an exciting year, if not only for all the up and downs. Knowing how important health is for this team I wince every time Zion tries to wreck the basket. I always thought the laws of physics were absolute, Oh well.

Newton_14
10-24-2018, 11:59 AM
Great post Kedsy. Thanks! I was at the game in Section 14 on the rail so great seats. The big 3 of Zion/RJ/Cam are all as good as advertised, and Jones looked good as well. For those lamenting Javin's minutes, he was limping a couple of times. I think he is still not a 100% yet.

Zion is just a freak. The things he does on defense are almost just as impressive as on offense. He had one just flat out impossible for a human block last night. Scary good. I love Reddish too. Modern day Pippen. He has a very nice shooting stroke that gets perfect rotation on the ball. RJ just seems to get to the basket whenever he wants to and either scores, gets fouled or both. Going to be interesting to see if he can do that against the best of the best.

Fastbreak defense was really bad. There were also several freshmen mistakes in halfcourt defense that can be expected early. All in all a fun team to watch. Chemistry on the court looked above average given how early it is and with 4 freshman on the floor a lot.

I still feel to win a title we will need Bolden to provide quality minutes. We are awful small without him on the floor. That will be something to watch when we start seeing teams with quality bigs. Kentucky being the first test.

Love me some Jack White. Rotation player Kedsy. Write it down!

superdave
10-24-2018, 12:49 PM
Love me some Jack White. Rotation player Kedsy. Write it down!

You think White plays more minutes than Alex this year?

Do you thin Javin and Marques wind up about equal to each other?

kAzE
10-24-2018, 12:59 PM
Great post Kedsy. Thanks! I was at the game in Section 14 on the rail so great seats. The big 3 of Zion/RJ/Cam are all as good as advertised, and Jones looked good as well. For those lamenting Javin's minutes, he was limping a couple of times. I think he is still not a 100% yet.

Zion is just a freak. The things he does on defense are almost just as impressive as on offense. He had one just flat out impossible for a human block last night. Scary good. I love Reddish too. Modern day Pippen. He has a very nice shooting stroke that gets perfect rotation on the ball. RJ just seems to get to the basket whenever he wants to and either scores, gets fouled or both. Going to be interesting to see if he can do that against the best of the best.

Fastbreak defense was really bad. There were also several freshmen mistakes in halfcourt defense that can be expected early. All in all a fun team to watch. Chemistry on the court looked above average given how early it is and with 4 freshman on the floor a lot.

I still feel to win a title we will need Bolden to provide quality minutes. We are awful small without him on the floor. That will be something to watch when we start seeing teams with quality bigs. Kentucky being the first test.

Love me some Jack White. Rotation player Kedsy. Write it down!

Agreed on these observations, especially on Bolden. I posted upthread that I believed Jack would be the 6th man, but after seeing the team in full, I agree that Bolden needs to play 20+ minutes if we want to really hit our ceiling as a team, which probably pushes Jack to 7th in the pecking order, possibly 8th if Alex proves to be better.

Bolden is always an incredibly frustrating guy, but when he flashes, he shows that he can do things nobody else on the roster is capable of. He just doesn't always do those things. If he struggles, Jack probably absorbs the minutes. Mostly because I don't see Javin as someone who can play more than 20 minutes a game this year. He's been very foul prone over the course of his career thus far, and his injury seems like something he will have to manage over the course of the season. Hopefully I'm wrong about that, and he can play 25+ minutes if needed, but I think the coaches will be cautious at least for the first half of the schedule.

Jack does provide some big man stats, though. I think he's a pretty good rebounder, especially for his size, and he's more athletic than he gets credit for. I still like him as the 5th guy on the floor for the mythical "death lineup" with Zion at center.

Another thing: Cam Reddish can play point guard. The kid is a great ball handler and passer. I thought RJ would probably be the back up primary ball handler when Tre is resting, but I think it's almost inevitable that Cam will be handling the ball a lot, and will be the back up point guard. RJ is a fine ball handler, but he's much more aggressive looking for his own offense when he has the ball. The big 3 guys are all match up nightmares, and could all be the #1 option on a top 25 offense. Our offensive potential is unreal.

budwom
10-24-2018, 01:00 PM
You think White plays more minutes than Alex this year?

Do you thin Javin and Marques wind up about equal to each other?

I have no idea who plays how much, but was surprised O'Connell played only eight minutes (but had 10 pts, 5 rebounds)...

HereBeforeCoachK
10-24-2018, 01:07 PM
I have no idea who plays how much, but was surprised O'Connell played only eight minutes (but had 10 pts, 5 rebounds)...

Apparently he's been bad in practice, according to K...who mentioned he played very well last night. Some players actually are much better game players than practice players. Maybe not many, but some def are (Allen Iverson). It seems to be a concept that neither K nor Cut are interested in frankly.

Lar77
10-24-2018, 01:25 PM
Realize the conversation about last night has shifted to this thread.

Give credit to VUU, they were better than expected.

On the "Not 4":

Bolden's movement is better than last year. But he still has some habit flaws. He played better than his stats.
Javin was hurting last night, so no sense of where he is. His shooting stroke looks smoother and he seems to have more confidence
Jack will be really a good sub for many reasons.

I see these 3 as the number 5 starter on a matchup basis or practice results.

AOC was shaky at first but he gain confidence as the game went on. Baker was a surprise (don't think he's a redshirt). Surprised Vrank didn't get more run, but he is moving more effectively. Jordan was OK. Justin was also OK.

On the 4 starters:

I am waiting for 1st team AA Luke Maye to try to guard Zion. I was surprised at Z's quickness and hustle. Plus he just seems to be having a really good time out there.
The other 3 are as advertised. Cam is clearly not 100%, Tre is a very good distributor - need to see how his shooting progresses. RJ is very good.

Our D was not good, but that seemed to be mistakes, especially going for steals. Everyone is out there working, which is the start of good M2M.

I guess 11/6 will be our first real view of this team in a pressure game against as good talent.

Kedsy
10-28-2018, 10:47 AM
Thus endeth Phase 0. At this level of beatdown, not that much useful information, but here are the second exhibition game stats:

OFFENSE:

oRtg: 1.54 ppp (eye popping number; obviously the opponent was more than overmatched)
eFG%: 66.9% (strong)
2pt%: 63.5% (ditto)
3pt%: 50.0% (again, an eye popping number)
%threes: 29.7% (a low number, but if we can hit 50% every time, you take this in a heartbeat)
FT rate: 64.9% (whoa)
OR%: 51.2% (also whoa)
TO%: 12.8% (excellent)
A/to ratio: 2.36:1 (ditto)
%assisted: 59.1% (good)
fast break points: 12.1% of points (decent)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.56 ppp (double whoa)
eFG%: 29.7% (double ditto)
2pt%: 28.9% (ditto)
3pt%: 20.7% (very strong)
%threes: 39.2% (we let them shoot a lot of threes, but since they only hit one out of every five, I think we can live with that)
FTR: 10.8% (very strong)
DR%: 71.9% (good; big improvement over last game)
TO%: 26.8% (strong; almost as good as last game)
A/to ratio: 0.43: 1 (very strong)
%assisted: 52.6% (when they only make 19 FGs in the game, this can happen)
Block%: 12.2% (20.0% counting only 2-point shots)
fast break points: 12.5% (higher than you'd like from a percentage basis, but when you hold your opponent to 48 points, 6 fast break points might seem like a lot)


This was an epic trouncing. Next game just maybe might be a little tougher.

Newton_14
10-28-2018, 05:40 PM
You think White plays more minutes than Alex this year?

Do you thin Javin and Marques wind up about equal to each other?

Yes I do actually. I could be wrong of course but I believe Jack will solidly be in the rotation all year. Javin will play a lot as well. Bolden is a wildcard. Hopefully he plays well enough to remain in the rotation but K has such a short leash with him and it is very hard to perform under a "one mistake and you are out" scenario. We'll see.

golfinesquire
10-28-2018, 05:48 PM
Yes I do actually. I could be wrong of course but I believe Jack will solidly be in the rotation all year. Javin will play a lot as well. Bolden is a wildcard. Hopefully he plays well enough to remain in the rotation but K has such a short leash with him and it is very hard to perform under a "one mistake and you are out" scenario. We'll see.

Actually, I thought K lengthened the leash with Bolden yesterday. He had a couple of defensive lapses: failed to pick up his man in the press and rotated late one or two times. And K did not yank him. Maybe he jas has started to earn K’s trust enough that K is willing to let him play through mistakes.

Newton_14
10-28-2018, 06:50 PM
Actually, I thought K lengthened the leash with Bolden yesterday. He had a couple of defensive lapses: failed to pick up his man in the press and rotated late one or two times. And K did not yank him. Maybe he jas has started to earn K’s trust enough that K is willing to let him play through mistakes.

Fully agree but it was an exhibition game with ridiculous large lead. In a regular season game with minimal lead he might have yanked him. However overall I thought Bolden played well yesterday. I am pulling very hard for the young man to excel. Super nice kid.

superdave
10-29-2018, 05:39 PM
Fully agree but it was an exhibition game with ridiculous large lead. In a regular season game with minimal lead he might have yanked him. However overall I thought Bolden played well yesterday. I am pulling very hard for the young man to excel. Super nice kid.

Bolden makes the gambling, over-playing the passing lanes defense by our wings work if he can sit back and protect the rim. Not sure Javin does that (even though Javin allows for switching screens).