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Billy Dat
10-18-2018, 12:40 PM
https://gleague.nba.com/news/nba-g-league-introduces-professional-path-select-contracts-elite-basketball-prospects/

"The NBA G League today announced a Select Contract as part of a comprehensive professional path that will be available, beginning with the 2019-20 season, to elite prospects who are eligible to play in the NBA G League but not yet eligible for the NBA. The contracts, which will include robust programmatic opportunities for development, are for elite players who are at least 18 years old and will pay $125,000 for the five-month season.

Select Contracts are an answer to the basketball community’s call for additional development options for elite players before they are eligible for the NBA,” said NBA G League President Malcolm Turner. “The supporting infrastructure surrounding these newly-created Select Contracts is designed to provide a rich offering of basketball and life skills developmental tools for top young players to grow along their professional paths from high school to the pros.”

CrazyNotCrazie
10-18-2018, 12:40 PM
The G League has introduced a select contract for $125k a year for high school grads who are not yet eligible for the NBA to play in the G League. The devil is in the details on this but I'm curious how many players take them up on this.

http://www.nba.com/article/2018/10/18/g-league-professional-path-official-release

JasonEvans
10-18-2018, 12:49 PM
This is a truly major development. $125k is real money -- not life changing, but good money.

The competition in the GLeague is better than college ball and will prepare you for the NBA better as you can spend more time on your game and not have to worry about classes (insert UNC joke here).

I will not be at all surprised if a half dozen or more of the top prospects in the class of 2019 go this route. This is potentially a sea change in recruiting.

BLPOG
10-18-2018, 12:50 PM
The G League has introduced a select contract for $125k a year for high school grads who are not yet eligible for the NBA to play in the G League. The devil is in the details on this but I'm curious how many players take them up on this.

http://www.nba.com/article/2018/10/18/g-league-professional-path-official-release

My hope is that the answer to your question is "many."

ChillinDuke
10-18-2018, 12:51 PM
The G League has introduced a select contract for $125k a year for high school grads who are not yet eligible for the NBA to play in the G League. The devil is in the details on this but I'm curious how many players take them up on this.

http://www.nba.com/article/2018/10/18/g-league-professional-path-official-release

Very interesting!

My sense is a lot of players would take them up on this. $125K is a lot more than a G-League salary, right?

But it can't be that simple. A team must make that offer, no? How many top players get that sort of offer is probably in the 5-10 range, is my guess.

- Chillin

JasonEvans
10-18-2018, 12:53 PM
If you are a top 10 prospect -- a guy certain to be one and done -- aside from the potential notoriety of playing in the NCAA and getting a fan base from your college fans, I can't think of any reason for those kids to go to college versus going this route.

Pghdukie
10-18-2018, 12:54 PM
I wonder what the Big Baller's have to say about this ! Maybe this format will just make them go away.

flyingdutchdevil
10-18-2018, 01:00 PM
Uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge fan of this proposal. Yes, some of the top college talent will no longer be college talent. But at least Duke will have some sophomores!

DavidBenAkiva
10-18-2018, 01:12 PM
This is a truly major development. $125k is real money -- not life changing, but good money.

The competition in the GLeague is better than college ball and will prepare you for the NBA better as you can spend more time on your game and not have to worry about classes (insert UNC joke here).

I will not be at all surprised if a half dozen or more of the top prospects in the class of 2019 go this route. This is potentially a sea change in recruiting.

I'll be surprised if more than a couple go this route. Kids could always go straight to the NBA out of high school. But it took more than a decade after Kevin Garnett (and several after Moses Malone) to start bypassing college in droves. No one wants to be the first one to go this route and fall flat. If a couple of kids from 2019 go this route, I expect we'll see more from the succeeding classes. But someone has to be first. It may happen or it may not.

Natty_B
10-18-2018, 01:13 PM
Woj doesn't think it will move the needle much: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1052959247305080832

But Woj also makes about 2 million a year and might have forgotten how much $125,000 a year is to most people.

I'm thinking you will see a decent number of dudes go this route.

DavidBenAkiva
10-18-2018, 01:15 PM
I wonder what the Big Baller's have to say about this ! Maybe this format will just make them go away.

Who?

brlftz
10-18-2018, 01:15 PM
What's the incentive for a G-League team to offer this? Is it just ordinary marketing of their own teams, as in, "BOY would a lot of people pay to come see Zion play!"? I assume that's all it is, and that this doesn't provide an NBA team a way to secure a player and keep them out of the draft. If so, it will really be interesting to see how many players get an offer based on a perceived ability to draw crowds.

I'm also with everyone else, this really changes everything for Duke. Adios, hypothetical 2019 recruiting class.

Troublemaker
10-18-2018, 01:19 PM
If you are a top 10 prospect -- a guy certain to be one and done -- aside from the potential notoriety of playing in the NCAA and getting a fan base from your college fans, I can't think of any reason for those kids to go to college versus going this route.

The ESPN article (Givony) does a good job listing three major drawbacks (or at least question marks as of now), from the high school prospect's perspective. I'll link and excerpt below:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25015812/g-league-offer-professional-path-elite-prospects-not-wanting-go-one-done-route-ncaa

https://i.imgur.com/a4d7FyX.png

golfinesquire
10-18-2018, 01:19 PM
If you are a top 10 prospect -- a guy certain to be one and done -- aside from the potential notoriety of playing in the NCAA and getting a fan base from your college fans, I can't think of any reason for those kids to go to college versus going this route.

Marketing is one. The top college players get a lot of exposure from being recruited to being on TV for all those televised games during their one year in college. That positions some of them to sign those multimillion dollar endorsement deals seconds after they are drafted. I doubt the G-League will get anywhere near that kind of attention, meaning all that free publicity goes away. Obviously finances are personal to each family but I can imagine those who can afford to look at the big picture and wait a bit will still think that a year in college is useful and ultimately more lucrative.

JasonEvans
10-18-2018, 01:19 PM
I'll be surprised if more than a couple go this route. Kids could always go straight to the NBA out of high school. But it took more than a decade after Kevin Garnett (and several after Moses Malone) to start bypassing college in droves. No one wants to be the first one to go this route and fall flat. If a couple of kids from 2019 go this route, I expect we'll see more from the succeeding classes. But someone has to be first. It may happen or it may not.

I'm not allowed to make pie bets any more according to my wife, but I would be willing to make some kind of wager that at least 5 players go this route in 2019.

Here is a key line from the ESPN story:


Without the restrictions of the NCAA's amateurism rules, players will also be free to hire agents, profit off their likeness and pursue marketing deals from sneaker companies and the like, which could be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars in endorsement opportunities to top prospects.


$125k
Endorsements
Agents and advisers to help guide you
As much practice time as you want
NBA-approved trainers and coaching staff
No classes



Why would James Wiseman, Cole Anthony, Vernon Carey, Jaden McDaniels, and Isaiah Stewart choose to go to college where they play for free and don't get any of the other benefits? The only thing they get is a fan base of college hoops followers who have 6 months of attachment to them and some extra name recognition from playing college games on TV.

-Jason "this is a no brainer for a top 5 prospect" Evans

CameronBornAndBred
10-18-2018, 01:21 PM
So are coaches already on the phone with recruits asking them where their head is? I would be. No sense in wasting time on a guy that says he is heading to the pros instead of school.

Troublemaker
10-18-2018, 01:22 PM
I'm also with everyone else, this really changes everything for Duke. Adios, hypothetical 2019 recruiting class.

Ha, the main reason I support this plan is because Duke is seemingly trailing for most of the major recruits we're going after. I mean, if Cole Anthony really is going to end up a Tar Heel, I certainly hope he chooses the G League instead.

JasonEvans
10-18-2018, 01:22 PM
Marketing is one. The top college players get a lot of exposure from being recruited to being on TV for all those televised games during their one year in college. That positions some of them to sign those multimillion dollar endorsement deals seconds after they are drafted. I doubt the G-League will get anywhere near that kind of attention, meaning all that free publicity goes away. Obviously finances are personal to each family but I can imagine those who can afford to look at the big picture and wait a bit will still think that a year in college is useful and ultimately more lucrative.

If you are a top draft pick, you will get the endorsement dollars even if folks don't know you from playing college ball. Just ask Luca Doncic, Kristaps Porzingas, and many others.

devildeac
10-18-2018, 01:25 PM
What's the incentive for a G-League team to offer this? Is it just ordinary marketing of their own teams, as in, "BOY would a lot of people pay to come see Zion play!"? I assume that's all it is, and that this doesn't provide an NBA team a way to secure a player and keep them out of the draft. If so, it will really be interesting to see how many players get an offer based on a perceived ability to draw crowds.

I'm also with everyone else, this really changes everything for Duke. Adios, hypothetical 2019 recruiting class.

But, how much, if any, does it change for Arizona, Villanova and UK who have several of the top 20 guys who have given verbals (audible or silent, with or without gerbils :rolleyes:) to those schools?

Interesting indeed.

CameronBornAndBred
10-18-2018, 01:26 PM
So it looks like $125K is merely one part of the equation. In truth, it could be much, much more for an elite prospect.


Without the restrictions of the NCAA's amateurism rules, players will also be free to hire agents, profit off their likenesses and pursue marketing deals from sneaker companies and the like, which could be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars in endorsement opportunities to top prospects.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25015812/g-league-offer-professional-path-elite-prospects-not-wanting-go-one-done-route-ncaa

Troublemaker
10-18-2018, 01:34 PM
I'm not allowed to make pie bets any more according to my wife, but I would be willing to make some kind of wager that at least 5 players go this route in 2019.

We also do beer bets around these parts (note: devildeac sometimes takes a consultant's fee/cut :-). Does your wife ban beer, too? (Also, you ARE allowed to win a pie and give it to a family member, neighbor, friend, or workplace lounge -- no need to stuff yourself :-)

I'm mulling this one over because I don't see it as clearcut a decision as some. Would you be willing to bet that 5 American players take up this offer? (So, for example, if RJ Barrett had stayed in the 2019 class and decided to do the Select Contract, he wouldn't count as one of the 5?)

DavidBenAkiva
10-18-2018, 01:35 PM
I'm not allowed to make pie bets any more according to my wife, but I would be willing to make some kind of wager that at least 5 players go this route in 2019.

Here is a key line from the ESPN story:




$125k
Endorsements
Agents and advisers to help guide you
As much practice time as you want
NBA-approved trainers and coaching staff
No classes



Why would James Wiseman, Cole Anthony, Vernon Carey, Jaden McDaniels, and Isaiah Stewart choose to go to college where they play for free and don't get any of the other benefits? The only thing they get is a fan base of college hoops followers who have 6 months of attachment to them and some extra name recognition from playing college games on TV.

-Jason "this is a no brainer for a top 5 prospect" Evans

Outside of the extra money, we have an example of a top 10 recruit that said he wanted to go play in the G-League but then thought better of it. Darius Bazely said he was going this route but then didn't. There's real risk in going to the G-League. The G-League is full of guys like Matt Jones that highly skilled and motivated to get to the NBA. They are also physically superior to almost all of the top high school kids. That's going to be a rude awakening for a kid. Take James Wiseman. The NBA wants a kid that can defend at the rim and step out to hit a jumper. In college, there will only be about 35 games of film to evaluate if he can do that. And he'll be relatively closer in physical size to his competition, so he'll appear a lot stronger and able to showcase his unique skills and abilities. If he fails in the G-Leauge, he could drop 10, 20, or more spots. Sure, that happened to Skal Labissiere and Cliff Alexander in college. But they had a better shot at succeeding in college than going straight to the pros without a guaranteed contract. The difference between being #1 in the draft and #10 is millions, not hundreds of thousands. So that also has to be factored into this. Better to go to college than get exposed. Unless you are sure you will not be exposed. Like I wrote before, I think high school kids are going to want to see someone succeed through this route before they follow along. Most people are not trailblazers. There is risk involved.

devildeac
10-18-2018, 01:39 PM
We also do beer bets around these parts (note: devildeac sometimes takes a consultant's fee/cut :-). Does your wife ban beer, too? (Also, you ARE allowed to win a pie and give it to a family member, neighbor, friend, or workplace lounge -- no need to stuff yourself :-)

I'm mulling this one over because I don't see it as clearcut a decision as some. Would you be willing to bet that 5 American players take up this offer? (So, for example, if RJ Barrett had stayed in the 2019 class and decided to do the Select Contract, he wouldn't count as one of the 5?)

Ha! I've yet to see/taste an ounce of any consultant fees (looking at you richardjackson199:p). But, I'm still available, for far, far less than $125K/year :o.

UrinalCake
10-18-2018, 01:43 PM
This is great news and long overdue. It’s basically a precursor to eliminating the OAD rule. But the last bullet point posted by troublemaker is the biggest question for me - will teams actually be motivated to develop the players, knowing that they’re going to enter the draft after a season and likely move on to another team? If I’m a G league coach of a team with an NBA affiliate, why would I choose to give playing time and coaching resources to a “OAD” G-League player versus giving that time to another player whose rights my team owns longer term? Alternately, would a coach be motivated to hide the player so that other teams don’t find out how good he is, therefore allowing the team to draft him themselves?

Also, if and when the OAD rule goes away, will this path still exist? It will only be the second tier of players that choose this, because the elite kids will go straight to the draft. Will they still pay $125k to that level of player?

$125k is a huge step up from current G league salaries, and more than the tuition and cost of living you’d get in college. But player will still need to balance the value of a more nurturing environment in college, where coaches and teammates are trying to make you better rather than tear you down. Will be interesting to see how things shake out.

Reddevil
10-18-2018, 01:49 PM
Ha, the main reason I support this plan is because Duke is seemingly trailing for most of the major recruits we're going after. I mean, if Cole Anthony really is going to end up a Tar Heel, I certainly hope he chooses the G League instead.

Could K and the staff have known/seen this coming? I know it is still fairly early in the recruiting process, but perhaps they have been less aggressive for a reason? No idea if there is any truth to this thought - just speculating of course.

Acymetric
10-18-2018, 01:51 PM
This is a truly major development. $125k is real money -- not life changing, but good money.

The competition in the GLeague is better than college ball and will prepare you for the NBA better as you can spend more time on your game and not have to worry about classes (insert UNC joke here).

I will not be at all surprised if a half dozen or more of the top prospects in the class of 2019 go this route. This is potentially a sea change in recruiting.

You can certainly devote more time to the craft (although I am quite sure college athletes spend a large amount of time working out and practicing, and at some point you are going to get diminishing or even negative returns with respect to additional practice time per day). I am also not entirely confident that the G-League generally has better coaching/player development staffs than the top tier college basketball programs (I am sure there are some top-flight coaches there, but there are top flight coaches at the college level as well). This seems like the weakest of the possible reasons someone would choose this path (some of the others, such as money, are more compelling).

Like others, I am also extremely curious what the incentives are from the signing team's side. Are these all single-year deals? Why aren't the "programmatic opportunities for development" provided for all young G-League players?

Troublemaker
10-18-2018, 01:52 PM
Outside of the extra money, we have an example of a top 10 recruit that said he wanted to go play in the G-League but then thought better of it. Darius Bazely said he was going this route but then didn't. There's real risk in going to the G-League. The G-League is full of guys like Matt Jones that highly skilled and motivated to get to the NBA. They are also physically superior to almost all of the top high school kids. That's going to be a rude awakening for a kid. Take James Wiseman. The NBA wants a kid that can defend at the rim and step out to hit a jumper. In college, there will only be about 35 games of film to evaluate if he can do that. And he'll be relatively closer in physical size to his competition, so he'll appear a lot stronger and able to showcase his unique skills and abilities. If he fails in the G-Leauge, he could drop 10, 20, or more spots. Sure, that happened to Skal Labissiere and Cliff Alexander in college. But they had a better shot at succeeding in college than going straight to the pros without a guaranteed contract. The difference between being #1 in the draft and #10 is millions, not hundreds of thousands. So that also has to be factored into this. Better to go to college than get exposed. Unless you are sure you will not be exposed. Like I wrote before, I think high school kids are going to want to see someone succeed through this route before they follow along. Most people are not trailblazers. There is risk involved.

Shhhhhhh, don't be updating people on Bazley until some pie or beer bets have been made. But since you already blew the lid on this, here's what I wrote about Bazley in late March:


I feel like there are twists and turns remaining in this story. Once Bazley starts contacting agents, they may advise him that this is a bad idea and that he should do X, Y, or Z instead. X could be the Mitchell Robinson route of just working out and training, Y could be to go to Syracuse, etc. Z probably won't be Lithuania.

And what do you know? Here is Bazley in late August (https://theathletic.com/489209/2018/08/27/darius-bazley-scraps-g-league-move-to-train-on-his-own-ahead-of-nba-draft/):

“Talking about it over with my group, we felt confidently that the G League wasn’t going to be needed and now I can use this time to work on my craft,” Bazley told The Athletic. “It’s mainly me talking to [agent] Rich [Paul], he knows so much, and whenever he speaks my ears perk up. When Miles [Bridges] was in Cleveland for his predraft workouts, whenever he got a chance to work out in front of NBA teams, I was working out in the gym, too. So that played a part in it, me playing well in those workouts for us to say there’s no upside in the G League. If you play well, it’s expected. If you don’t play well, you’re not NBA-ready. That’s what they’ll say. For me, working out and preparing is the best route.


Obviously the salary is now different from what Bazley was slated to make. And yet. I've made no pie or beer bets yet, but I'm not sure someone should be confident if they're going to be going against me (and Adrian Woj, essentially).

ChillinDuke
10-18-2018, 02:03 PM
But are kids offered this Select Contract? Certainly, they can't just line up, right? It must be bilateral.

There are pieces that are very curious here. $125K is a lot more than the standard G-League contract, and these kids can't even get called up. That strikes me as so different than the standard G-League player that it's awkward.

I'm certainly a fan of this in spirit. But I'm still trying to play this out in my head. $125K is so much higher than I would have thought. I would have thought $35K (plus all those ancillary benefits). $125K is multiples of that.

- Chillin

Acymetric
10-18-2018, 02:07 PM
But are kids offered this Select Contract? Certainly, they can't just line up, right? It must be bilateral.

There are pieces that are very curious here. $125K is a lot more than the standard G-League contract, and these kids can't even get called up. That strikes me as so different than the standard G-League player that it's awkward.

I'm certainly a fan of this in spirit. But I'm still trying to play this out in my head. $125K is so much higher than I would have thought. I would have thought $35K (plus all those ancillary benefits). $125K is multiples of that.

- Chillin

Right...I'm confused why they went that high (I suppose to entice people to this path that otherwise would not have taken it). I just don't understand what the league (and specifically the team that offers the contract) gains here where these contracts would be worth it for the teams that offer them. They get control over player development, I suppose, but no control over where that player goes after they develop them.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-18-2018, 02:13 PM
If you are a top 10 prospect -- a guy certain to be one and done -- aside from the potential notoriety of playing in the NCAA and getting a fan base from your college fans, I can't think of any reason for those kids to go to college versus going this route.


I think only a few a year will get the 125K - the G league is going to lose it's financial arse on this. That said, I think it's a great idea and I think a lot of players will go that route who have the opportunity. However, I can think of a very good reason to go the college route for a year: let's compare careers, hypothetically, of a player's two options:

G League and then NBA: 150 million plus 125K for a year...= 150.125 million
College OAD and NBA: 150 million plus additional 10 million in endorsements due to major college exposure for a year while your contemporaries are playing in front of empty arenas = maybe more money over the career.

Purely hypothetical, and there's a ton of variables, but a case can be made for the player to do either. That is, unless the player's family is in dire need of money now, then it's no brainer.

BandAlum83
10-18-2018, 02:16 PM
Woj doesn't think it will move the needle much: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1052959247305080832

But Woj also makes about 2 million a year and might have forgotten how much $125,000 a year is to most people.

I'm thinking you will see a decent number of dudes go this route.

I notice no one commented on this line in Woj's tweet:


Big-time NCAA ball still has the trappings of exposure, packed houses, private jets. You'll get paid there too

Is he referring to tuition room and board, or is he cynically making an accusation?

JasonEvans
10-18-2018, 02:17 PM
Would you be willing to bet that 5 American players take up this offer? (So, for example, if RJ Barrett had stayed in the 2019 class and decided to do the Select Contract, he wouldn't count as one of the 5?)

I'm saying 5 guys who would otherwise have attended college will take this route instead. So, RJ clearly would count. I think for 5 of the top 20, this will make sense.

But, lots of you are making some really solid arguments against it. I'm not worried about GLeague teams not being motivated to play the players and develop them. I mean, aside from 2-way players, G League teams never have any kind of long-term control over players. I am a little worried about the notion of poor performance in the GLeague playing against more imposing competition impacting a player's stock.

We shall see... it may be that only a couple guys try this route at first, but I bet it becomes a very attractive option in the near future. This could be a long-term solution to OAD.

PackMan97
10-18-2018, 02:19 PM
Good news! The ONLY thing I don't like about this is it does not guarantee an NBA contract.

There are a lot of kids who think they are ready for the NBA based on their play against 16,17 and 18 year old boys. They are going to be surprised matching up against 25+ year old men. The adjustment from high school to playing against NBA quality players (and let's face it, most of the G-league would be quality NBA bench players). If Kobe Bryant went to the G-League and popped out a 7.6ppg average, would anyone care the next year? How uninteresting would Kevin Garnett after a season of 10ppg in the G-League?

That said, I think it's a good change and being able to practice more and have folks looking out for the player's professional interests (instead of college coaches looking out for their teams success) will only help these kids in the game of life.

edit to add:

I am a little worried about the notion of poor performance in the GLeague playing against more imposing competition impacting a player's stock.

Great minds and all that. I really doubt that a Bryant or Garnett is going to get lost in the shuffle. There will certainly be some "busts", just like every year there are some draft busts, or some MickeyD's that don't live up to the name. It's all part of the game. I think that kids getting more professional help and training can only help them. Coach K is great and all that, but at the end of the day it's what? 20 hours a week and only during the season with his coaching staff when you could be getting 40+ a week over the entire year in the GLeague.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-18-2018, 02:20 PM
I notice no one commented on this line in Woj's tweet:


Is he referring to tuition room and board, or is he cynically making an accusation?

I think what he's saying is that with all that major exposure, etc, you enter your pro career with a ton of endorsements in your pocket, you've had your meals and your women for free, and you've had top notch coaching...now, the "accusation" situation is not mutually exclusive of this either...but I think the point is playing on natty TV and in front of packed arenas is a lot more fun and exciting than the G league will be, and also brings potential economic advantages.

Where do you think Laettner is getting his recent endorsement bucks from? The NBA? Hardly. Grant Hill probably more known for his Duke play than his NBA play. And Bilas is sweeping the floors at ESPN without his Duke cred. A major college career can pay dividends for decades.

BandAlum83
10-18-2018, 02:22 PM
I think what he's saying is that with all that major exposure, etc, you enter your pro career with a ton of endorsements in your pocket, you've had your meals and your women for free, and you've had top notch coaching...now, the "accusation" situation is not mutually exclusive of this either...but I think the point is playing on natty TV and in front of packed arenas is a lot more fun and exciting than the G league will be, and also brings potential economic advantages.

Where do you think Laettner is getting his recent endorsement bucks from? The NBA? Hardly. Grant Hill probably more known for his Duke play than his NBA play.

I think it was only Louisville (that we know of) that paid their athletes with free women.

Sir Stealth
10-18-2018, 02:29 PM
I'm skeptical for the reasons already well-stated by others. There's not really much point to a G-League team in playing a player with no future rights to that player. Fans are not going to care about G-League teams even if they have hyped players who were top high school prospects, so that player is really just taking up development space. Anyone who is well regarded enough to actually move the needle for a G-League team is not going to want to risk the downside of playing for $125k when so much more than that is on the line with their draft stock. If they already don't care about college eligibility, they can make that overseas, or if they don't want to go overseas can just workout and still avoid college classes, probably with the agent fronting them enough money to live comfortably. A truly top prospect could make endorsement money, but losing the following of college basketball and fan bases tied to schools probably sucks out a lot of that value until the player plays for a team that someone actually cares about. It's going to be a very narrow set of players who don't have better opportunities but can still get the $125k as a select player. I think the main question is how low of a prospect a player can be coming out and still get the select contract - but why pay up and waste development attention on a player who is just ok to then lose the rights anyway?

Reddevil
10-18-2018, 02:31 PM
I think only a few a year will get the 125K - the G league is going to lose it's financial arse on this...

Certainly, the NBA is backing this and it probably saves them money in the long run because now they have much more access to these previously one and done kids. These are the no-brainers. The 99% certainty types. The maybe 10 kids a year that are good enough to make it in the NBA. This is better for the NBA than getting rid of the minimum age requirement because $125K per kid is a small amount to pay to obtain full access, interviews, physicals, etc., to make sure they are worthy before they spend the HUGE $$$.

Bluedog
10-18-2018, 02:31 PM
This is definitely HUGE. I also like the fact that after this is implemented people can no longer say "players don't have any choice! Nobody will pay them! College provides no value and are just using the players!" If top elite prospects STILL choose one year of college instead of $125k+ for 5 months of work, no classes required, and possibility of endorsement money, that will once and for all PROVE that many see NCAA basketball as a VERY VERY valuable experience so people can stop saying the NCAA is free loading on these guys...

I'm a fan all around even if it means Duke gets fewer top recruits. It'll be interesting to see how many guys choose that route. And $125k+ for 5 months of work (I realize they're training year round of course) to do your passion in life as an 18-year old IS "LEGIT MONEY"...come on. Perspective...

JasonEvans
10-18-2018, 02:33 PM
I think it was only Louisville (that we know of) that paid their athletes with free women.

Ummm... I am not saying Duke literally pays for strippers/hookers, but let me assure you that basketball players at Duke are swimming in offers from women on campus. At least back in my day (the late 1980s) if a player wanted to be with a different gorgeous woman every night, he would have no trouble at all doing that.

-Jason "yes, I said every night... I am not exaggerating" Evans

phaedrus
10-18-2018, 02:33 PM
Where do you think Laettner is getting his recent endorsement bucks from? The NBA? Hardly. Grant Hill probably more known for his Duke play than his NBA play. And Bilas is sweeping the floors at ESPN without his Duke cred. A major college career can pay dividends for decades.

I don't see much relevance to these examples. Few if any of the top prospects considering this option would have a "major college career." They're likely one-and-dones. There's not much of a nexus between, for example, KD's time at Texas and his endorsement success today.

Bluedog
10-18-2018, 02:38 PM
Ummm... I am not saying Duke literally pays for strippers/hookers, but let me assure you that basketball players at Duke are swimming in offers from women on campus. At least back in my day (the late 1980s) if a player wanted to be with a different gorgeous woman every night, he would have no trouble at all doing that.

-Jason "yes, I said every night... I am not exaggerating" Evans

That doesn't happen nearly as much these days with everybody having a camera in their pocket and the proliferation of social media. These guys have to be a lot more careful and can't "go out" as much as they used to although yes, they're still highly sought after by women. I used to regularly see guys (and sometimes during the basketball season) out in the early 2000s. Facebook came to Duke in Spring of 2004...There is a lot more scrutiny now and they don't want their face plastered in a bad light. Duke basketball makes sure these guys are well versed in this stuff and have the proper controls in place. Laettner drinking from a keg on the main quad (in the early 90s) doesn't happen really anymore...Also, RIP kegs on the quad, so nobody is doing that anymore! Although we did get to witness Hansbrough jump from the second floor of a frat house into a pool more recently.

BandAlum83
10-18-2018, 02:41 PM
Ummm... I am not saying Duke literally pays for strippers/hookers, but let me assure you that basketball players at Duke are swimming in offers from women on campus. At least back in my day (the late 1980s) if a player wanted to be with a different gorgeous woman every night, he would have no trouble at all doing that.

-Jason "yes, I said every night... I am not exaggerating" Evans

But...that is not administration sponsored and paid for.

ETA: Plus you know my original comment was made with tongue planted firmly in cheek!

hallcity
10-18-2018, 02:43 PM
How is this going to work? Will there be G league draft? Will the 18 year olds be eligible for the NBA draft but just not eligible to play in the NBA for a year?

UrinalCake
10-18-2018, 02:44 PM
This is better for the NBA than getting rid of the minimum age requirement...

That’s an interesting angle as well - will the NBA choose NOT to rescind the OAD rule and use this as a reason why? It certainly saves them a ton of money to pay out $125k rather than the first year of a rookie deal, and they still get to evaluate players for an extra year before teams have to decide whether to draft them.

BandAlum83
10-18-2018, 02:46 PM
That’s an interesting angle as well - will the NBA choose NOT to rescind the OAD rule and use this as a reason why? It certainly saves them a ton of money to pay out $125k rather than the first year of a rookie deal, and they still get to evaluate players for an extra year before teams have to decide whether to draft them.

Could this actually be the first steps in what could eventually grow into a true NBA farm system, a la baseball's minor leagues? Is there a market?

Acymetric
10-18-2018, 02:48 PM
To expand on my comment about diminishing or negative returns from additional practice time, would there be any injury concerns about the constant practice grind and the extra ~10 games per season or so?

Folks who constantly talk about Duke players getting fatigued from too many minutes should be very careful with their answers here ;)


Could this actually be the first steps in what could eventually grow into a true NBA farm system, a la baseball's minor leagues? Is there a market?

I'm pretty sure the NBA has explicitly stated that this is an intention of theirs. The first step was announcing that they wanted to get an affiliate for every NBA team, the second was two-way contracts. I'm not sure this really helps with the farm system, to be an actual farm system these players would need to be drafted first, not given one year contracts.

mr. synellinden
10-18-2018, 02:51 PM
Consider this before making any pie or other bets:

https://twitter.com/EvanDaniels/status/1052976405674414080?s=20

CrazyNotCrazie
10-18-2018, 02:52 PM
As I said above, the devil is in the details on this:

- When will the NBA/G League announce who to whom this is available? It sounds like a limited list, and the earlier it is announced, the better.
- Similarly, when will be the deadline for a player to commit?
- Who is paying for this? The teams? The NBA? Like others, I'm surprised they went to $125k. The results likely would have been the same at $75k with the player being less differentiated from the rest of his teammates who are making much less.
- Other than players on two-way contracts, are all other G League players essentially free agents who can be signed by any NBA team?

Based on all of these questions, I am somewhat surprised that they plan to implement this for next season. It seems like there is a lot to be worked out and they need some lead time in place so that everyone can respond accordingly.

I think the driving factor for many players will be potential endorsement dollars vs. the $125k. If a player finds out that Nike will offer them millions, guaranteed, this is very appealing. If they are just getting the $125k (not that it is a trivial sum), but are uncertain of other income, it is still appealing for someone who really needs the money and/or has absolutely no interest in being in school, but it is less appealing for many others. I don't know how the NCAA will feel about these prospects talking to shoe companies, because a wise prospect will be negotiating with a shoe company while making this decision.

kAzE
10-18-2018, 02:52 PM
I'm not allowed to make pie bets any more according to my wife, but I would be willing to make some kind of wager that at least 5 players go this route in 2019.

Here is a key line from the ESPN story:




$125k
Endorsements
Agents and advisers to help guide you
As much practice time as you want
NBA-approved trainers and coaching staff
No classes



Why would James Wiseman, Cole Anthony, Vernon Carey, Jaden McDaniels, and Isaiah Stewart choose to go to college where they play for free and don't get any of the other benefits? The only thing they get is a fan base of college hoops followers who have 6 months of attachment to them and some extra name recognition from playing college games on TV.

-Jason "this is a no brainer for a top 5 prospect" Evans

I'm not disagreeing the G-League path sounds pretty good, but there's certainly still benefits to college . . .

1. Much better coaching within the elite D-1 programs than anywhere in the G-League. Also playing against better coached teams can potentially help players improve as much as they would playing in the G-League.

2. Education . . . as dumb as that sounds, you're still getting free classes, and if you're going to a school as good as Duke, that's worth an awful lot.

3. Having a (relatively) normal social life, being around other kids your age and developing social skills

4. Getting a head start in regards to national relevance, TV exposure, developing a fan base. I would not discount the name recognition and fans from playing big time college hoops. It's a huge jump start for a player's marketability, and recognizable athletes are much more likely to get big endorsement deals. Nobody is lining up to buy some G-League kid's shoes. Getting lucrative endorsements while playing in the G-League won't be easy.

5. If you end up being a "bust," you'll have the option to stay in school, work on a degree, and keep improving your game in hopes that your draft stock rises. If you start in the G-League and don't play well, you could wind up never breaking out.

PackMan97
10-18-2018, 03:06 PM
To expand on my comment about diminishing or negative returns from additional practice time, would there be any injury concerns about the constant practice grind and the extra ~10 games per season or so?

I would assume it wouldn't be "practice grind", but more walking through offense and defense. Spending more time in the film room.

Remember that college athletes are only allowed 20 hours of coaching a week and no more than 4 per day. If they play in a game, that counts as 3hrs (regardless of the length). There is a lot of weight lifting, conditioning and practicing that is "voluntary and student-led" and can not happen when a coach is around. There are a host of other rules limiting the number of days in a month, etc, etc, etc.

I really doubt the GLeague is just going to grind down these kids and ruin their potential.

JasonEvans
10-18-2018, 03:07 PM
I'm not disagreeing the G-League path sounds pretty good, but there's certainly still benefits to college . . .

1. Much better coaching within the elite D-1 programs than anywhere in the G-League. Also playing against better coached teams can potentially help players improve as much as they would playing in the G-League.
2. Education . . . as dumb as that sounds, you're still getting free classes, and if you're going to a school as good as Duke, that's worth an awful lot.
3. Having a (relatively) normal social life, being around other kids your age and developing social skills
4. Getting a head start in regards to national relevance, TV exposure, developing a fan base. I would not discount the name recognition and fans from playing big time college hoops. It's a huge jump start for a player's marketability, and recognizable athletes are much more likely to get big endorsement deals.
5. If you end up being a "bust," you'll have the option to stay in school, work on a degree, and keep improving your game in hopes that your draft stock rises. If you start in the G-League and don't play well, you could wind up never breaking out.

1. I agree the top tier coaches in the NCAA are better than G league coaches but the second half of your statement doesn't really hold water to me. Playing in G League games is going to put you up against stronger, more experienced competition. I don't care how good Coach K or Tom Izzo may be, the competition in the G league is much much better than in college (A GLeague team would be at least a 15-20 point fave against even the very best college teams) and playing against better competition is going to make you better.

2. I think there are no more than maybe 3 or 4 of the top 25 high school players who care about their college education even a little bit. I wish it was otherwise, but these kids have been on the pro basketball train since they were 13.

3. Yup, I agree that the college social life would be a draw... but the GLeague guys are getting $125k (and likely more than that in shoe company bucks) to have fun with. I consider this a wash, at best.

4. 100% agree. This is the primary reason to pick college over the GLeague.

5. Show me a top 25 high school star who is worried about being a bust and not making it in the NBA and I will show you a kid who is probably not going to make it anyway. All these kids have incredible confidence in their abilities. Failing at basketball does not even cross their mind as a possibility. I know some folks who are in the scouting and player development game for the NBA and they are unanimous that if you say to a kid, "but what if you are not good enough?" the kid will look at you like you just told him you come from Jupiter.

dukelifer
10-18-2018, 03:14 PM
1. I agree the top tier coaches in the NCAA are better than G league coaches but the second half of your statement doesn't really hold water to me. Playing in G League games is going to put you up against stronger, more experienced competition. I don't care how good Coach K or Tom Izzo may be, the competition in the G league is much much better than in college (A GLeague team would be at least a 15-20 point fave against even the very best college teams) and playing against better competition is going to make you better.

2. I think there are no more than maybe 3 or 4 of the top 25 high school players who care about their college education even a little bit. I wish it was otherwise, but these kids have been on the pro basketball train since they were 13.

3. Yup, I agree that the college social life would be a draw... but the GLeague guys are getting $125k (and likely more than that in shoe company bucks) to have fun with. I consider this a wash, at best.

4. 100% agree. This is the primary reason to pick college over the GLeague.

5. Show me a top 25 high school star who is worried about being a bust and not making it in the NBA and I will show you a kid who is probably not going to make it anyway. All these kids have incredible confidence in their abilities. Failing at basketball does not even cross their mind as a possibility. I know some folks who are in the scouting and player development game for the NBA and they are unanimous that if you say to a kid, "but what if you are not good enough?" the kid will look at you like you just told him you come from Jupiter.

I agree with college, right now, giving better exposure. But that could change if the best talent leaves and interest in college bball starts to wane. The possibility of big shoe contracts could draw a few more players to this option. Right now I see it appealing to a few- who probably would have struggled to make it into college.

ChillinDuke
10-18-2018, 03:19 PM
Still trying to play this out.

So the Westchester Knicks go out and offer Vernon Carey $125K to play one year in the G-League. The alternative is Vernon Carey plays one year in college. In both scenarios, Vernon has injury risk and bust risk. In both scenarios, Vernon enters the 2019 NBA Draft and is subject to the standard NBA payscale for rookies.

So what does he gain?

Gains:
- $125K
- Unfettered training and coaching access
- A bigger step up in competition

What are the risks?
- He has no guarantee to be with that team in the future, and he gets paid more than most players both on his team and on other teams. What does that mean for the dynamic on the court? May players target him?
- Bust risk is further heightened, since he can't fall back on college or take longer to develop; but does that matter? Vernon Carey is going to play professional basketball in some capacity in 99.9% of future scenarios.
- Potentially less exposure. How much less? Unclear. But fairly safe to say his exposure at a top-flight college program would be higher than on a G-League team where he may (or may not) really play that much. But does that really matter all that much? Short run, yes? Long run, no?

What does the NBA team gain?
- Additional scouting? I call BS. I really don't think an NBA team is going to gain a material scouting advantage in either the G-League or College scenario.
- Ability to hide a recruit? Would NBA teams hide recruits in order to keep them under wraps and obscure their NBA Draft value?
- Ability to further market their minor league affiliate? Would these types of players infuse energy and hype to a G-League affiliate? Perhaps teams are looking at this from a marketing perspective?

In summary, I'm not really sure what to think about this. I sort of see this as $125K or $0K. Why would I not take this if I'm a surefire professional basketball player? That said, anyone that is even slightly questionable should probably not take this and risk flaming out spectacularly.

I think the NBA's proposal makes sense. It should benefit the surefires while keeping the questionables away. But I'm still thinking through.

- Chillin

budwom
10-18-2018, 03:19 PM
I guess this is all just fine. But once a kid chooses the G League, the door to college (at least a hoop scholarship) is slammed closed. And most of these kids (I would imagine) could not
afford to pay for college without the aid of hoop scholarships).

So for the kids who know they don't care about academics, I guess there is no downside.

But for other kids who might actually take advantage of college, it could be a bad choice. For example, a kid who chooses the G League and then finds himself to not be the NBA prospect he thought he was, has little recourse except for playing overseas. A kid who chooses college and finds himself not to be an NBA prospect might actually buckle down and get a degree. Perhaps not likely, but certainly possible.
Conclusion: more doors stay open by going to college...

Bluedog
10-18-2018, 03:20 PM
Consider this before making any pie or other bets:

https://twitter.com/EvanDaniels/status/1052976405674414080?s=20

That suggests that NBA agents see that these colleges give these guys A LOT of value despite "not getting paid." Love it.

Troublemaker
10-18-2018, 03:22 PM
I'm saying 5 guys who would otherwise have attended college will take this route instead. So, RJ clearly would count. I think for 5 of the top 20, this will make sense.

Well, here's the top 20 players per 247's composite rankings (https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/CompositeRecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool). If you're willing to stipulate that the 5 have to come from those 20 players, we'll have a deal. On beer, presumably.

I'm worried about a scenario in which the elite high school players reject the Select Contract, and then in order to save face, the NBA starts offering those contracts to lower-ranked recruits and foreign players in order to fill a quota. (Maybe that's overly cynical, however).

Also, the bet is off if the NBA sweetens the pot, e.g. they change the terms of the contract to pay $250,000 instead of $125,000.

kAzE
10-18-2018, 03:26 PM
I guess this is all just fine. But once a kid chooses the G League, the door to college (at least a hoop scholarship) is slammed closed. And most of these kids (I would imagine) could not
afford to pay for college without the aid of hoop scholarships).

So for the kids who know they don't care about academics, I guess there is no downside.

But for other kids who might actually take advantage of college, it could be a bad choice. For example, a kid who chooses the G League and then finds himself to not be the NBA prospect he thought he was, has little recourse except for playing overseas. A kid who chooses college and finds himself not to be an NBA prospect might actually buckle down and get a degree. Perhaps not likely, but certainly possible.
Conclusion: more doors stay open by going to college...

Also, in the grand scheme, what is $125k to a truly elite NBA prospect, anyways? That's a drop in the ocean if they are truly lottery-bound talents. The national exposure could easily be worth more in the long term. They'll make 20 or 30 times that amount on just their rookie contract if they are the real deal. Keeping doors open (mitigating risk) and getting tons of fans sounds like a fine way to spend a year of your basketball career.

Also, I neglected to mention that G-League players travel around on buses, stay at shoddy motels, and have to pay for a lot of their own expenses. Duke players fly around on NBA jets, eat like kings, and get high level K-Lab people to help them with their movement and conditioning. The G-League life is not as glamorous.

But even though I'm making the G-League sound bad, I don't want to imply that one path is strictly better than the other, but I just don't think it's as much of a no-brainer as it appears to be. I like that this is an option now. It will be a preferable option for some kids, and other kids will still opt for college. There's no downside to this. The kids who want to go to college can go, and the kids who don't care about education can skip it.

CameronBornAndBred
10-18-2018, 03:31 PM
Will the G League be working any new TV deals? I would be. People have asked how are teams going to be paying $125K salaries to guys; that could be answered with broader exposure.
It would also satisfy those players worried about not getting the marketing like they would in college. I'm guessing that the league is about to up their game in a big way, and try to compete with NCAA some. If they want to be successful and make people on the court and off happy, they will have to. If they have the elite kids playing, it will be easier for them to do so.
I think the G League that you see today, and the G League two years from now are going to be notably different.

Acymetric
10-18-2018, 03:39 PM
Will the G League be working any new TV deals? I would be. People have asked how are teams going to be paying $125K salaries to guys; that could be answered with broader exposure.
It would also satisfy those players worried about not getting the marketing like they would in college. I'm guessing that the league is about to up their game in a big way, and try to compete with NCAA some. If they want to be successful and make people on the court and off happy, they will have to. If they have the elite kids playing, it will be easier for them to do so.
I think the G League that you see today, and the G League two years from now are going to be notably different.

How big is the TV market for that? I would think somewhere between minor league baseball and [current non-NFL pro football league]. Maybe even less than either? Between the long NBA season and the popularity of college ball, it seems like a long shot to garner anything much more than local TV and maybe an a la carte streaming service (which is roughly what minor league baseball has going on I believe).

CameronBornAndBred
10-18-2018, 03:53 PM
How big is the TV market for that? I would think somewhere between minor league baseball and [current non-NFL pro football league]. Maybe even less than either? Between the long NBA season and the popularity of college ball, it seems like a long shot to garner anything much more than local TV and maybe an a la carte streaming service (which is roughly what minor league baseball has going on I believe).

Look at it this way. Years ago when the WNBA came about, many, many people figured it would flop. And it is still going strong today, with regular coverage and games on tv. I have no doubt that the G League can and will do better than the WNBA. It doesn't mean it is ever going to be as big as NCAA ball, but it will be bigger than it is now and find it's niche.

Edit..one thing the WNBA does smartly is it has its season at a different time of year. The G League obviously has the other games to compete with at the same time of year.

Acymetric
10-18-2018, 04:05 PM
Look at it this way. Years ago when the WNBA came about, many, many people figured it would flop. And it is still going strong today, with regular coverage and games on tv. I have no doubt that the G League can and will do better than the WNBA. It doesn't mean it is ever going to be as big as NCAA ball, but it will be bigger than it is now and find it's niche.

Edit..one thing the WNBA does smartly is it has its season at a different time of year. The G League obviously has the other games to compete with at the same time of year.

Your second line is an important part of my point. There just aren't a lot of available TV slots and eyeballs during that time. They are competing with the NFL, NBA, College Football (for the first half of the season), College Basketball (men's and women's), and probably some other sports that I'm forgetting because I don't follow them. I'm not saying nobody would ever watch, but I don't see TV as a legitimate revenue generator and suspect they would make significantly less than the WNBA (although at lower cost per player). If there were a real market for this it would already exist, I don't see a couple top tier high school prospects per year changing the math much.

ChillinDuke
10-18-2018, 04:44 PM
Look at it this way. Years ago when the WNBA came about, many, many people figured it would flop. And it is still going strong today, with regular coverage and games on tv. I have no doubt that the G League can and will do better than the WNBA. It doesn't mean it is ever going to be as big as NCAA ball, but it will be bigger than it is now and find it's niche.

Edit..one thing the WNBA does smartly is it has its season at a different time of year. The G League obviously has the other games to compete with at the same time of year.

I disagree. A few reasons why:

1) Target Market - My sense is the WNBA benefits from an audience that is largely young girls + dads + families. If I had to guess, I'd say that's a pretty sizable market that doesn't have a huge amount of outlets.
2) Time of year - By having the games in an "off" season, there is less competition for eyeballs in the sports world.
3) Venues - The WNBA games are played primarily in NBA arenas and big cities.

I don't know a ton about the G-League, but I don't think it would benefit from any of these significant advantages. While the WNBA is the best of the best in that market, the G-League is assuredly not in either on-court product (NBA) or intensity of game (college). The G-League season is smack in primetime of many other major sports. And the teams play in world renowned places such as Stockton, CA, Grand Rapids, MI, Fort Wayne, IN, and Portland, ME. I just think it's hard for a sport to get regular coverage and be broadly heralded when the not-best players are playing in comparitively uninteresting places (no offense; I'm from Long Island and we have a G-League team) during a time of year when there's plenty of other things to follow and watch in sports.

- Chillin

JasonEvans
10-18-2018, 05:12 PM
Well, here's the top 20 players per 247's composite rankings (https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/CompositeRecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool). If you're willing to stipulate that the 5 have to come from those 20 players, we'll have a deal. On beer, presumably.

I'm worried about a scenario in which the elite high school players reject the Select Contract, and then in order to save face, the NBA starts offering those contracts to lower-ranked recruits and foreign players in order to fill a quota. (Maybe that's overly cynical, however).

Also, the bet is off if the NBA sweetens the pot, e.g. they change the terms of the contract to pay $250,000 instead of $125,000.

First of all, I don't really like beer.

https://adriaticmedianethr.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/giphy-50.gif

I do enjoy a good cider and I love single-malt scotch.

But, shipping alcohol is expensive and potentially violates about a half dozen laws depending on how you do it. So, how about this as an alternative...

We are both prolific posters. Can I suggest we do a bet where the loser has to spend a week where all his posts contain a line or two that celebrates the genius and superiority of the winner? I won one of those with someone a while back and it was sorta fun.

Also -- and this applies to more than just our bet, it applies to lots of posts in this thread -- the NBA/GLeague is not saying it is just going to offer $125k contracts willy nilly to any high schooler who wants one. These will be "select players" who are deemed to be worth that much. In my mind, we are talking about guys who are very, very likely to be one-and-done talents. If you are not a likely 1st round draft pick the next year -- heck, if you are not a likely lottery pick -- the NBA has no interest in paying you two or three times as much as a regular GLeague player. My bet is that this will be offered to most of the guys in the top 25 or so. If we expand your list to say top 30 prospects, not just top 20, then I think we have an accord.

-Jason "sound good?" Evans

CameronBornAndBred
10-18-2018, 05:20 PM
I just think it's hard for a sport to get regular coverage and be broadly heralded when the not-best players are playing in comparitively uninteresting places (no offense; I'm from Long Island and we have a G-League team) during a time of year when there's plenty of other things to follow and watch in sports.

- Chillin

That bold part is about to change. IF this is the route the NBA chooses to take, instead of taking elite players straight from HS, then they will find a way to market those players. One of the reasons that so many people tune in on draft night is to see where the OADs go. They are well known, because they have been given exposure. I don't think the NBA, who runs the G League, is going to allow that to change. They are going to market those kids. Their agents are going to market them. And shoe companies are going to market them.
They will find a way to make that market much bigger than it is right now, since none of those folks above benefit if they don't, except for the players. And if you think any of those folks care more about the players than their own pockets, you are daydreaming. (Not saying YOU in particular, just in general.)
There should be a 2 year pie bet in here somewhere. Long time to wait for my pie, though.

CameronBornAndBred
10-18-2018, 05:30 PM
Wow, talk about prescient timing, given my above comparison. Here is an article talking about WNBA salaries VS the new "select" contracts of the G League.

The biggest issue with the introduction of the “select contracts,” though, isn’t the $10,000 or so disparity between the yearly salaries of an 18-year-old man with no professional experience and arguably the greatest women’s player of all time (Diana Taurasi). It’s that the NBA sees the G League—a minor league of the men’s game, with minimal opportunity for a direct return—as more worthy of investment than the women’s game as a whole.
https://www.sbnation.com/wnba/2018/10/18/17996350/g-league-salaries-select-wnba-pay-players

HereBeforeCoachK
10-18-2018, 08:10 PM
Your second line is an important part of my point. There just aren't a lot of available TV slots and eyeballs during that time. They are competing with the NFL, NBA, College Football (for the first half of the season), College Basketball (men's and women's), and probably some other sports that I'm forgetting because I don't follow them. I'm not saying nobody would ever watch, but I don't see TV as a legitimate revenue generator and suspect they would make significantly less than the WNBA (although at lower cost per player). If there were a real market for this it would already exist, I don't see a couple top tier high school prospects per year changing the math much.

I agree with this ^^^ - I don't see the G league getting much fan traction in person or on TV. I don't see more than maybe 6-10 guys a year getting the 125K offer. And I see these salaries tightening after a few years. As much as I like college ball, and as excited as I am about seeing Zion in a Duke uniform, I wouldn't walk across the street with a free ticket to see him in a G league game. Well, maybe if the ticket were free....I might.

I just don't see a market. I love the idea, as it is a great option for some players, and will end some (not all) of the whiniest debate on pay the players, etc, because we'll all see it play out in front of our eyes....who is marketable, and who is not, and how will the colleges draw without the top 10-20 players a year out of high school. It will be clear who actually "generates" the revenue.

Pghdukie
10-18-2018, 10:46 PM
As KaZe pointed out upthread, the cost of living (housing, food, utilities, ESPN) will be out of pocket expenses. That $125,000 is now down to $95,000. Your entourage will cost you another $75,000. Now you have $20,000. Maternity fees, lawyer fees, agents 2% - DAM, IM BROKE.

Troublemaker
10-19-2018, 08:32 AM
First of all, I don't really like beer.

I do enjoy a good cider and I love single-malt scotch.

But, shipping alcohol is expensive and potentially violates about a half dozen laws depending on how you do it. So, how about this as an alternative...

We are both prolific posters. Can I suggest we do a bet where the loser has to spend a week where all his posts contain a line or two that celebrates the genius and superiority of the winner? I won one of those with someone a while back and it was sorta fun.

Also -- and this applies to more than just our bet, it applies to lots of posts in this thread -- the NBA/GLeague is not saying it is just going to offer $125k contracts willy nilly to any high schooler who wants one. These will be "select players" who are deemed to be worth that much. In my mind, we are talking about guys who are very, very likely to be one-and-done talents. If you are not a likely 1st round draft pick the next year -- heck, if you are not a likely lottery pick -- the NBA has no interest in paying you two or three times as much as a regular GLeague player. My bet is that this will be offered to most of the guys in the top 25 or so. If we expand your list to say top 30 prospects, not just top 20, then I think we have an accord.

-Jason "sound good?" Evans

Your suggested prize is fine my friend -- sounds like a lot of fun, actually. And yes, I'm amenable to extending the pool of players to 30 prospects.

But I want to examine two more edge cases before we shake on it.
(1) If the NBA reverses course and scraps the idea of this Select Contract (perhaps after hearing negative feedback from agents), then I win our bet, right?
(2) Likewise, the NBA -- in order to save face -- will certainly investigate which kids are amenable to Select Contracts before offering one to them. If the NBA ends up offering only 4 Select Contracts and they all accept, then I win our bet, right?

Essentially, you wrote that at least 5 prospects will accept the Select Contract. If you fall short of 5 in any way, whether it's 0 because the NBA scraps it, or whether it's 1 to 4 because the NBA will only offer SCs to prospects that they feel will accept it, then I win.

Are we in agreement?

Duke79UNLV77
10-19-2018, 09:06 AM
Your suggested prize is fine my friend -- sounds like a lot of fun, actually. And yes, I'm amenable to extending the pool of players to 30 prospects.

But I want to examine two more edge cases before we shake on it.
(1) If the NBA reverses course and scraps the idea of this Select Contract (perhaps after hearing negative feedback from agents), then I win our bet, right?
(2) Likewise, the NBA -- in order to save face -- will certainly investigate which kids are amenable to Select Contracts before offering one to them. If the NBA ends up offering only 4 Select Contracts and they all accept, then I win our bet, right?

Essentially, you wrote that at least 5 prospects will accept the Select Contract. If you fall short of 5 in any way, whether it's 0 because the NBA scraps it, or whether it's 1 to 4 because the NBA will only offer SCs to prospects that they feel will accept it, then I win.

Are we in agreement?

I wouldn’t have been surprised if all 4 of our star freshmen from last year accepted the deal. And had a lot fewer people watch them play and know who they are.

MChambers
10-19-2018, 09:25 AM
Says this is an Adam Silver production, which I suppose is obvioius:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/19/nba-takes-yet-another-step-toward-eliminating-one-and-done/?utm_term=.3a05ed90f070

TampaDuke
10-19-2018, 09:29 AM
Are the contracts just for one year? A 4-year guaranteed contract, with an out for being drafted/signed by the NBA, would make for a desirable college alternative for many, I suspect.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-19-2018, 09:30 AM
Are the contracts just for one year? A 4-year guaranteed contract, with an out for being drafted/signed by the NBA, would make for a desirable college alternative for many, I suspect.

The G League IS the NBA - and I guarantee you they are not doing 125K contracts for kids who won't be in the NBA in just one year.

richardjackson199
10-19-2018, 10:13 AM
I wonder if 247 Crystal Ball will start including G-League as some gurus' picks. I would assume so.

Acymetric
10-19-2018, 10:18 AM
Are the contracts just for one year? A 4-year guaranteed contract, with an out for being drafted/signed by the NBA, would make for a desirable college alternative for many, I suspect.


The G League IS the NBA - and I guarantee you they are not doing 125K contracts for kids who won't be in the NBA in just one year.

1 year contract, because they (and anyone who plays professional basketball anywhere) are automatically entered into the following draft. At that point, they either get drafted or follow the standard path of UDFA players that exists now. Which is why I still don't really understand what the NBA is getting out of it.

rocketeli
10-19-2018, 10:39 AM
Ummm... I am not saying Duke literally pays for strippers/hookers, but let me assure you that basketball players at Duke are swimming in offers from women on campus. At least back in my day (the late 1980s) if a player wanted to be with a different gorgeous woman every night, he would have no trouble at all doing that.

-Jason "yes, I said every night... I am not exaggerating" Evans

That was true in my day too. Hwever, most of the players (heh) soon settled down with a steady girlfriend rather than a new girl every night. Except for one guy who played in the early 80s who did both...I think we can all guess who that was.

Seriously I agree with some of the other posters that this is mostly a sop/response to those critics (like Wendell's mom) who say top HS players are forced to donate to the NCAA for a year. But wishes trump certainty on draft day, so it is a big risk to ruin your "upside" by toiling in obscurity against very good players and not putting up gaudy numbers, all three of which things are much less likely to happen at a top NCAA program.

JasonEvans
10-19-2018, 11:14 AM
Your suggested prize is fine my friend -- sounds like a lot of fun, actually. And yes, I'm amenable to extending the pool of players to 30 prospects.

But I want to examine two more edge cases before we shake on it.
(1) If the NBA reverses course and scraps the idea of this Select Contract (perhaps after hearing negative feedback from agents), then I win our bet, right?
(2) Likewise, the NBA -- in order to save face -- will certainly investigate which kids are amenable to Select Contracts before offering one to them. If the NBA ends up offering only 4 Select Contracts and they all accept, then I win our bet, right?

Essentially, you wrote that at least 5 prospects will accept the Select Contract. If you fall short of 5 in any way, whether it's 0 because the NBA scraps it, or whether it's 1 to 4 because the NBA will only offer SCs to prospects that they feel will accept it, then I win.

Are we in agreement?

There are a myriad of reasons why the NBA/GL may decide to pull this idea. If they do, I say the bet is off. I'm not giving you a win if the idea if pulled off the table.

If only 4 guys get offered it, I will accept that as a loss, cause I just cannot imagine that happening.

-Jason "seems like we are close..." Evans

phaedrus
10-19-2018, 11:34 AM
... so it is a big risk to ruin your "upside" by toiling in obscurity against very good players and not putting up gaudy numbers, all three of which things are much less likely to happen at a top NCAA program.

This idea has been repeated a number of times on this thread without much resistance. Is it a given that every NBA front office is incapable of comparing (1) a solid but unspectacular season against mature, established players in the G-League, against (2) a season of big stat lines against lower tier competition? Are NBA GMs, just like everyday fans, so enamored by the glitz of the college basketball season and bored by the obscure but superior play in the G-League?

Maybe. But some of them, I'd venture, are actually good at their jobs. I guess the question is whether the prospective "Select" prospects agree.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-19-2018, 12:11 PM
This idea has been repeated a number of times on this thread without much resistance. Is it a given that every NBA front office is incapable of comparing (1) a solid but unspectacular season against mature, established players in the G-League, against (2) a season of big stat lines against lower tier competition? Are NBA GMs, just like everyday fans, so enamored by the glitz of the college basketball season and bored by the obscure but superior play in the G-League?

Maybe. But some of them, I'd venture, are actually good at their jobs. I guess the question is whether the prospective "Select" prospects agree.

YES, because there are major misses on first round draftees EVERY SINGLE YEAR

LasVegas
10-19-2018, 12:11 PM
I’m not sure how much this will move the needle. A few players here and there, I guess. What most intrigues me is the potential for a player to be ahead in their development which could mean a bigger 2nd contract. One year in the g league is more than likely going to accelerate a player’s development and adjustment to the NBA game. So when it’s time to sign that 2nd contract you could be worth a lot more simply because you are a year ahead on your development.

I really think only players who absolutely do not want to go to college will take this route though.....or someone like Zion, Bagley, etc, who could get a huge endorsement deal.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-19-2018, 12:13 PM
That was true in my day too. Hwever, most of the players (heh) soon settled down with a steady girlfriend rather than a new girl every night. Except for one guy who played in the early 80s who did both...I think we can all guess who that was.


I"m not sure if you are referring to Mr. Dennard, but I hear tell he was legendary, in every possible way (use your imagination). A cousin of mine was a drinking buddy / hound dog wing man for Kenny D as they terrorized Myrtle Beach a few times.

Blue in the Face
10-19-2018, 12:30 PM
As KaZe pointed out upthread, the cost of living (housing, food, utilities, ESPN) will be out of pocket expenses. That $125,000 is now down to $95,000.
G League players receive housing. Presumably that includes some level of utilities, though how much, if any, cable/internet/streaming is covered I have no idea.

House P
10-19-2018, 12:35 PM
This idea has been repeated a number of times on this thread without much resistance. Is it a given that every NBA front office is incapable of comparing (1) a solid but unspectacular season against mature, established players in the G-League, against (2) a season of big stat lines against lower tier competition? Are NBA GMs, just like everyday fans, so enamored by the glitz of the college basketball season and bored by the obscure but superior play in the G-League?

Maybe. But some of them, I'd venture, are actually good at their jobs. I guess the question is whether the prospective "Select" prospects agree.

I found this curious as well. Initially, it wouldn't surprise me if some GMs are poor at evaluating the G League performance of 18 year olds. However, as analytic-focused as front offices are these days, I can't imagine that would last long. To me, the argument is not all that different from saying Wendell should have gone to Harvard instead of risking the chance of exposing his weaknesses at Duke.

In the end, it is in the NBA's interest to have top prospects playing against the best possible competition. If the best competition is in the G League, I could even imagine a not too distant scenario where top prospects are strongly encouraged to play in the G League if they don't want to risk their draft status by raising questions about the level of competition they faced in college.

phaedrus
10-19-2018, 01:00 PM
YES, because there are major misses on first round draftees EVERY SINGLE YEAR

Of course, but that simply begs the question whether the major misses will be increased or reduced as a result of having some players in the G-League. It could be that many major misses happen because college play is not a good benchmark for NBA success, and that one year of G-League play will be a better predictor.

If I were a GM, I'd consider an 18 year old who hangs with the best in the G-League - even if not dominant - a far surer thing than a college freshman who puts up big numbers against physically overmatched opponents. Consider Marvin Bagley, for example. Duke plays one of the best schedules every year, but even so, how many NBA-quality big men did he play against all year?

If I were a prospect, however, I think I'd have to weigh how my skills and talent are likely to be exhibited in each forum. If I think I can put up huge numbers for a high-profile program like Bagley did, maybe college is the best place. But if I'm a player whose skills and talent seem to be a better fit for the NBA than college, maybe I can show that better in the G-League.

elvis14
10-19-2018, 01:25 PM
If you are a top 10 prospect -- a guy certain to be one and done -- aside from the potential notoriety of playing in the NCAA and getting a fan base from your college fans, I can't think of any reason for those kids to go to college versus going this route.

Jason, if I'm a parent, as much as I want my son to make it big, I would also want them to experience college (even if it is just for one year and a fairly abnormal year at that, meaning big time athletes don't have the same college experience I had).

I see this an interesting piece to an incomplete puzzle. It'll be interesting to see what happens to NCAA rules and with the NBA's next CBA, other pieces to the puzzle.

What I would love to see the NCAA do is say that if you take this new route and play 1 year in the G-League, you can still come back and play college ball but you lose 1 year of eligibility if you play 1 year, lose 3 years of eligibility if you play 2 years and are ineligible if you play 2+ years. Of course, you've have to get rid of any endorsement deals to return to some sense of amateurism. There are going to be kids that get bad advice and go to the G-League when they shouldn't have. Some of them will realize that they will never make the NBA or just want to be around people their own age some more. It would be nice if those kids could come to a University and play 3 years of college ball and get a scholarship to help them with their education (assuming, of course, they don't go to UNCheat and not have class <- double meaning intended).

I don't know when the current CBA ends, but from what I understand it's the CBA that keeps the OAD in effect.

devilsadvocate85
10-19-2018, 01:30 PM
G League players receive housing. Presumably that includes some level of utilities, though how much, if any, cable/internet/streaming is covered I have no idea.

No one is figuring in taxes (federal and multiple states), hiring someone to do the taxes, etc. College still has huge upside if you are willing to go to class (I'll leave the snide comments wandering through my brain out for now). Gear is free, housing is free, food is free, medical care is free, etc. Exposure at the top programs from an individuals brand will still be higher. No one is clamoring for more basketball to watch on TV, unless their team isn't on a source they can watch. I've never heard of anyone who claims a "G League" team as their team. Bottom line, this is not a no-brainer for the players and it is a "stop-gap" for the NBA until the age limit can be changed. I think the NCAA should look at this as a blessing and an argument against the "pay the players" insanity. They can point to it as a viable option. Very few of these players would get significant endorsement money until they are going to the NBA.

Also, however the NBA/G League plan and age limit rule end up, there will still be players who go to college and only stay 1 season. If a freshman has a great year and the NBA people tell him the right things, he's gone. (The only caveat here being the possibility of the NCAA instituting minimum year commitments, which I doubt will happen or would be enforceable. You can't make a kid stay in school.) In the overall picture, there will be a few players we don't recruit/lose to the NBA/G League, a small number that leave early each year and our beloved "program" players.

I don't see the G League making a dent in the popularity of college basketball in my lifetime because there is no "brand". We love the players that we have, but we love them because they have Duke on the front of their jersey. The fact that a few players each year don't ever play NCAA basketball isn't going to change that. I'm still baffled how riled up we get over a proposal that will impact such a small number of players each season. We're discussing bets if the number will be <5>. I think Coach K's comment about the trial being a "blip" applies here as well. In a couple years, I think we'll be looking back on this period and wondering what the big deal was.

JasonEvans
10-19-2018, 02:06 PM
I really find it amusing all of you who are saying, "no one will want to do this because they may look bad and hurt their draft stock."

Folks, the NBA knows talent when it sees it. The NBA knows potential when it sees it.

In 2015-16 Skal Labissiere barely played for the Kentucky Wildcats... 15 minutes per game with 6 ppg and 3 rpg... he was a first round draft pick of the Kings.
Tony Bradley played 15 minutes per game for the 2017 Tar Heels, scoring all of 7 ppg before getting his guaranteed first round money.
Harry Giles and Michael Porter (I know, injuries) had only the tiniest impact on the college game before earning their millions via the draft.
Lonnie Walker averaged just 11 ppg for Miami last season, he wasn't even 3d team All-ACC, but he was almost a lottery pick.

-Jason "If a top 10 recruit, one with the length and athleticism the NBA covets, goes to the GLeague and struggles, the NBA will not care. He;s getting drafted... high" Evans

David Bunkley
10-19-2018, 02:20 PM
I really find it amusing all of you who are saying, "no one will want to do this because they may look bad and hurt their draft stock."

Folks, the NBA knows talent when it sees it. The NBA knows potential when it sees it.

In 2015-16 Skal Labissiere barely played for the Kentucky Wildcats... 15 minutes per game with 6 ppg and 3 rpg... he was a first round draft pick of the Kings.
Tony Bradley played 15 minutes per game for the 2017 Tar Heels, scoring all of 7 ppg before getting his guaranteed first round money.
Harry Giles and Michael Porter (I know, injuries) had only the tiniest impact on the college game before earning their millions via the draft.
Lonnie Walker averaged just 11 ppg for Miami last season, he wasn't even 3d team All-ACC, but he was almost a lottery pick.

-Jason "If a top 10 recruit, one with the length and athleticism the NBA covets, goes to the GLeague and struggles, the NBA will not care. He;s getting drafted... high" Evans

To your point, a talented guy with an obvious flaw or two (like Trevon Duval with his shooting and decision-making) would have probably been better served by a year in the G league where it's all about personal development, than he was by a year at Duke (where the goal is to win a championship).

#GODUKE

HereBeforeCoachK
10-19-2018, 04:41 PM
Of course, but that simply begs the question whether the major misses will be increased or reduced as a result of having some players in the G-League. .

...and my point is that we don't know for sure....we can never know dispositively. Someone floated the notion that the G league will be a big improvement in this area. That remains to be seen.

-jk
10-19-2018, 09:22 PM
What's the harm to the NBA? The G League is a rounding error (as is, I suspect, the WNBA). This program is a rounding error on the rounding error.

Seems a no-brainer.

-jk

NYBri
10-19-2018, 09:53 PM
I am a sports fan. I have NO interest in watching a G-league basketball game, let alone care about OADs I’ve never heard of playing in an empty arena in Omaha. I have a hard time watching a regular season NBA game.

I don’t see any upside for top prospects, the NBA or the fans with this deal.

JasonEvans
10-19-2018, 09:56 PM
What's the harm to the NBA? The G League is a rounding error (as is, I suspect, the WNBA). This program is a rounding error on the rounding error.

Seems a no-brainer.

-jk

And it benefits the league by making it look like they are seeking a solution to the very unpopular OAD rule. From a PR standpoint, this is great for the NBA. They have a reasonably lucrative (salary + endorsement income) means of supporting young basketball players who do not want to go to college. I would not be at all surprised if they wait a few years to see if this eliminates the need to allow high school grads into the NBA.

-Jason "I also think this could make GLeague games a little more attractive and marketable... it makes the GLeague more about 'Who is Next?' versus 'Guys not good enough for the NBA'" Evans

Troublemaker
10-20-2018, 04:31 PM
There are a myriad of reasons why the NBA/GL may decide to pull this idea. If they do, I say the bet is off. I'm not giving you a win if the idea if pulled off the table.

If only 4 guys get offered it, I will accept that as a loss, cause I just cannot imagine that happening.

-Jason "seems like we are close..." Evans

If you agree to these two additional stipulations, I think we've got it. I win if either:
(1) The NBA scraps the Select Contract, and there is mainstream reporting (ESPN, SI, CBS, etc) that the reason they scrap it is because they expect too few high school prospects will accept the Select Contract, or
(2) The NBA sweetens the pot, i.e. essentially admitting that $125K wasn't enough to entice players to accept the SC.

Agreed?

HereBeforeCoachK
10-20-2018, 04:58 PM
What's the harm to the NBA? The G League is a rounding error (as is, I suspect, the WNBA). This program is a rounding error on the rounding error.

Seems a no-brainer.

-jk

I don't know that it is a rounding error....think arena upkeep, expenses, travel....the salaries in the G are the rounding error...the overall costs are not. I think it takes hundreds of people to open up a typical basketball/hockey arena and prepare it for a game.

JasonEvans
10-21-2018, 09:18 AM
If you agree to these two additional stipulations, I think we've got it. I win if either:
(1) The NBA scraps the Select Contract, and there is mainstream reporting (ESPN, SI, CBS, etc) that the reason they scrap it is because they expect too few high school prospects will accept the Select Contract, or
(2) The NBA sweetens the pot, i.e. essentially admitting that $125K wasn't enough to entice players to accept the SC.

Agreed?

If the NBA scraps it because no one is taking it I agree that would be a win for you. If they up the ante then I think we call it a push and no one wins as it would not be entirely clear who had won in that case. I mean, if it goes to $150 versus $125 and 7 guys take this offer, was I really all that wrong about my assessment of the inducement? I think an increase in the offer is unclear enough that we just call it a push.

-Jason "I'm really going to be intrigued to see who gets offered this... top 10 guys for sure and probably a few into teens, but how many guys outside the top 15 are worth investing in without more knowledge of how their play will translate to the next level?" Evans

Troublemaker
10-21-2018, 09:44 AM
If the NBA scraps it because no one is taking it I agree that would be a win for you. If they up the ante then I think we call it a push and no one wins as it would not be entirely clear who had won in that case. I mean, if it goes to $150 versus $125 and 7 guys take this offer, was I really all that wrong about my assessment of the inducement? I think an increase in the offer is unclear enough that we just call it a push.

-Jason "I'm really going to be intrigued to see who gets offered this... top 10 guys for sure and probably a few into teens, but how many guys outside the top 15 are worth investing in without more knowledge of how their play will translate to the next level?" Evans

Okay, my friend. I agree. **Shakes on it**

To review our wager:

If at least 5 of the top 30 players (according to 247's Composite rankings) sign a Select Contract, JasonEvans wins.
If 4 or fewer of that pool of 30 players sign a Select Contract, Troublemaker wins.
If the NBA scraps the Select Contract, and there is mainstream media reporting that the NBA did it because they expected too few players to take the offer, then Troublemaker wins.
If the NBA sweetens the pot of what they're offering high school prospects, it is a push between us.


I have a feeling that last one is going to save your butt, my friend. Anyway, the prize is: for one week, when we make posts on DBR, the loser will praise the winner as a genius.

JasonEvans
10-21-2018, 11:53 AM
Okay, my friend. I agree. **Shakes on it**

To review our wager:

If at least 5 of the top 30 players (according to 247's Composite rankings) sign a Select Contract, JasonEvans wins.
If 4 or fewer of that pool of 30 players sign a Select Contract, Troublemaker wins.
If the NBA scraps the Select Contract, and there is mainstream media reporting that the NBA did it because they expected too few players to take the offer, then Troublemaker wins.
If the NBA sweetens the pot of what they're offering high school prospects, it is a push between us.


I have a feeling that last one is going to save your butt, my friend. Anyway, the prize is: for one week, when we make posts on DBR, the loser will praise the winner as a genius.

Gambling is fun!
https://i.redd.it/0g7hi8rqpv701.gif

CrazyNotCrazie
10-22-2018, 02:17 PM
Interesting article on another unique path by Darius Bazley, who had committed to Syracuse, then decided to go straight to the G League, and is now taking something of a gap year, including an "internship" at New Balance. He is getting a guaranteed $1 million of endorsement money, with a lot of additional upside. Bazley was highly ranked but was not at the very top of his class so one could only imagine what a more highly ranked player could be earning. As I said higher in the thread, the $125k from the G League is not the driver here - the opportunity to start getting endorsements is where the real money is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/sports/darius-bazley-g-league-new-balance.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Sports

CameronBornAndBred
10-22-2018, 02:23 PM
His reasons aren't stated, but Kyree Walker has decommitted from Hurley's ASU 2020 team. Have to wonder if he is eyeing dollars over "education" now. Have to wonder if he will be the first of a few, if so. If he doesn't entertain other schools, we'll know the answer to one of those questions.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/recruiting/basketball/mens/story/_/id/25049754/kyree-walker-five-star-forward-decommits-arizona-state

Troublemaker
10-22-2018, 02:40 PM
Interesting article on another unique path by Darius Bazley, who had committed to Syracuse, then decided to go straight to the G League, and is now taking something of a gap year, including an "internship" at New Balance. He is getting a guaranteed $1 million of endorsement money, with a lot of additional upside. Bazley was highly ranked but was not at the very top of his class so one could only imagine what a more highly ranked player could be earning. As I said higher in the thread, the $125k from the G League is not the driver here - the opportunity to start getting endorsements is where the real money is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/sports/darius-bazley-g-league-new-balance.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Sports

One thing about that. It's always been available as an option. High school senior prospects have always had the option to skip college and work out / prepare for the draft for a year, sign with an agent, and earn endorsement money like Bazley has. (The no-agent, no-endorsement rule is an NCAA rule, not state or federal law.)

Almost all have chosen to go to college instead.

Then again, maybe Bazley and others like him (Mitchell Robinson) start a trend.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-22-2018, 03:36 PM
Interesting article on another unique path by Darius Bazley, who had committed to Syracuse, then decided to go straight to the G League, and is now taking something of a gap year, including an "internship" at New Balance. He is getting a guaranteed $1 million of endorsement money, with a lot of additional upside. Bazley was highly ranked but was not at the very top of his class so one could only imagine what a more highly ranked player could be earning. As I said higher in the thread, the $125k from the G League is not the driver here - the opportunity to start getting endorsements is where the real money is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/sports/darius-bazley-g-league-new-balance.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Sports

Interesting development, but I'm thinking........in a year, with no college exposure, is New Balance going to think their one mill investment was a good thing? I doubt it. I seriously doubt it. In a year, we'll be like "Darius Who?"

UrinalCake
10-22-2018, 10:01 PM
If at least 5 of the top 30 players (according to 247's Composite rankings) sign a Select Contract, JasonEvans wins.


I might have missed an earlier post, but how are you defining "Select Contract"? Because what I see happening is that the NBA offers 5 players these "maximum" $150k contracts, but none of them will take it. So then the NBA will start going down the line and offering smaller contracts to lesser-ranked players. Maybe the #10 ranked player gets offered $100k. Maybe a #20 guy like Wendell Moore gets offered $50k. I still they'll stop short of offering guys who have no chance at being lottery picks. But I don't see them offering the full $150k, which is 3-4 times what a typical G-league player makes, to everybody.

The more I think about it, the more I don't think this idea is going to work. Elite guys like Bagley and Barrett aren't going to forego playing on National TV and being treated like a king in exchange for $150k. They're going to be worth millions in a year. The risk of slipping in the draft by playing against older, more mature players is high. Brandon Jennings is probably a good example, he skipped college and went to Europe and got humbled. Plus there's a greater injury risk since they're playing more games and more minutes than they would in college.

Would someone like Brian Bowen take a $150k deal? Maybe. But the NBA doesn't stand to gain anything by bringing on that level of player.

Troublemaker
10-23-2018, 07:24 AM
I might have missed an earlier post, but how are you defining "Select Contract"? Because what I see happening is that the NBA offers 5 players these "maximum" $150k contracts, but none of them will take it. So then the NBA will start going down the line and offering smaller contracts to lesser-ranked players. Maybe the #10 ranked player gets offered $100k. Maybe a #20 guy like Wendell Moore gets offered $50k. I still they'll stop short of offering guys who have no chance at being lottery picks. But I don't see them offering the full $150k, which is 3-4 times what a typical G-league player makes, to everybody.

The more I think about it, the more I don't think this idea is going to work. Elite guys like Bagley and Barrett aren't going to forego playing on National TV and being treated like a king in exchange for $150k. They're going to be worth millions in a year. The risk of slipping in the draft by playing against older, more mature players is high. Brandon Jennings is probably a good example, he skipped college and went to Europe and got humbled. Plus there's a greater injury risk since they're playing more games and more minutes than they would in college.

Would someone like Brian Bowen take a $150k deal? Maybe. But the NBA doesn't stand to gain anything by bringing on that level of player.

The Select Contract is the $125,000 contract. I don't think there will be any other kind, i.e. no sliding scale. You're basically positing that the NBA right away wants to take over the development of any high school player with pro potential. I don't think they do, and even if they did, they're years away from having that type of infrastructure set up. In any case, for the same reasons (many of which you outlined) why Vernon Carey will reject $125,000, our Wendell Moore will also reject $50,000 under your hypothetical.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-23-2018, 08:01 AM
The Select Contract is the $125,000 contract. I don't think there will be any other kind, i.e. no sliding scale. .

Hmmm....I have kind of assumed that there would be different contracts, with 125K being the max, under this set up. One size fits all doesn't seem to fit. But you may be right

lotusland
10-23-2018, 09:10 AM
I think college has been a better deal for OAD players up to now but the Lottery is filled with European players who have limited exposure here. I don’t see how the risk of struggling against minor leaguers is worse than struggling against major college competition. $150k and a year of full time pro training and preparation with the added benefit of endorsements is huge. To me there is no question Bagley gets a major endorsement deal and goes straight from HS to the G league. But even Brian Bowen could do radio ads for a local car wash which he couldn’t do in college. One year of classes is only a distraction to OAD players so the “cost” of tuition is not the same as the “value”. $50K Cash is way better than $50k in tuition credit with no realistic degree potential. I think this will be a game changer. I still don’t think the G league games will make much, if any, money though. I think a big key will be whether or not the sponsoring team receives an advantage in signing/drafting the player. For teams to full Lt embrace developing the player they need an incentive. I’d say have a HS draft and, at the end of the season, allow the team to offer a contracts 15% above the rookie minimum with a cap exception (I’m not a NBA salary cap expert so bear with me if that is unrealistic). If offered, the player could accept the offer or roll the dice on the draft. If the team makes the offer and it is accepted, they forfeit their first round pick. So the team can walk away and roll the dice on the regular draft instead. In my mind the team should should have until the lottery to make a decision so they know what pick they are sacrificing but that point is debatable.

Maybe also allow the G league prospect up to 3 games on the regular roster to get them some big league experience and exposure. Celtic fans might (still doubtful) take a bigger interest in their G league affiliate with some additional exposure.

Troublemaker
10-23-2018, 09:29 AM
Hmmm...I have kind of assumed that there would be different contracts, with 125K being the max, under this set up. One size fits all doesn't seem to fit. But you may be right

It's new. I think the NBA wants to dip their toe in with the elite prospects first. And MAYBE down the line, they'll have something for the good but non-elite prospects.

UrinalCake
10-23-2018, 10:04 AM
For teams to full Lt embrace developing the player they need an incentive. I’d say have a HS draft and, at the end of the season, allow the team to offer a contracts 15% above the rookie minimum with a cap exception (I’m not a NBA salary cap expert so bear with me if that is unrealistic). If offered, the player could accept the offer or roll the dice on the draft.

I can’t imagine an elite, Bagley-type player accepting a minimum deal when he could enter the draft and make millions as a top 5 pick. But I totally agree that the G league team needs some sort of incentive to develop the player. Otherwise there is zero motivation to sign and give playing time to a guy who will be drafted by somebody else in five months.

Playing in the G league is not a scaled down version of being in NBA. Guys fly commercial or ride buses, they stay in cheap hotels, they have to pay for their own meals, and they play in front of deserted gyms in the middle of nowhere. Seth Curry wrote about what a grind it is, saying they’d play a game and then ride on a bus for hours to get to the next city, they’d arrive at one in the morning and literally walk down the street to a McDonald’s to eat. Contrast that to coming to Duke and playing on ESPN thirty times, being in March Madness in front of millions, flying chartered jets and having catered meals, etc.

phaedrus
10-23-2018, 10:11 AM
The risk of slipping in the draft by playing against older, more mature players is high. Brandon Jennings is probably a good example, he skipped college and went to Europe and got humbled. Plus there's a greater injury risk since they're playing more games and more minutes than they would in college.



Jennings is a good test case. He did indeed go to Europe and get "humbled" - but he was still picked #10 in the draft (two spots ahead of Gerald Henderson, who had just been First Team All-ACC as a junior).

Would Jennings have gone higher if he'd gone to college? He was the #1 recruit (RSCI), but the #2 recruit (Jrue Holiday) was picked #17. Demar DeRozan was picked one spot ahead of him after a pretty solid freshman year at USC. So, it's plausible Jennings would have gone a spot or two higher with a good freshman year, but equally plausible that he would have fallen a bunch of spots if he'd disappointed.

Truth&Justise
10-23-2018, 10:20 AM
Interesting development, but I'm thinking...in a year, with no college exposure, is New Balance going to think their one mill investment was a good thing? I doubt it. I seriously doubt it. In a year, we'll be like "Darius Who?"

I pretty much only know him because he was a one-time Syracuse recruit who chose to bypass college. Same with guys like Anfernee Simmons, Mithcell Robinson, and Terrance Ferguson. Though I guess it worked out well enough for Brandon Jennings and Emmanuel Muddiay.

Really I think this is an overreach by New Balance, who is desperate to break into the basketball market and willing to take a chance on a relatively unknown player with some upside. That said, New Balance isn't the only company who will ever be in that position--Under Armour was there just a few years ago--meaning the endorsement money for high school prospects could be significantly higher than we thought when this thread started last week.

devilsadvocate85
10-23-2018, 03:02 PM
I pretty much only know him because he was a one-time Syracuse recruit who chose to bypass college. Same with guys like Anfernee Simmons, Mithcell Robinson, and Terrance Ferguson. Though I guess it worked out well enough for Brandon Jennings and Emmanuel Muddiay.

Really I think this is an overreach by New Balance, who is desperate to break into the basketball market and willing to take a chance on a relatively unknown player with some upside. That said, New Balance isn't the only company who will ever be in that position--Under Armour was there just a few years ago--meaning the endorsement money for high school prospects could be significantly higher than we thought when this thread started last week.

I couldn't disagree more with the bolded portion. I think endorsement money for players choosing to go a route where they will virtually disappear from the public eye for a year will be very minimal. The top-flight players who get the shoe contracts saw their value enhanced by a year of exposure in college. The endorsement money will not come until the value is demonstrated and that won't happen until the players have had some time on national TV, etc.

niveklaen
10-23-2018, 03:41 PM
I couldn't disagree more with the bolded portion. I think endorsement money for players choosing to go a route where they will virtually disappear from the public eye for a year will be very minimal. The top-flight players who get the shoe contracts saw their value enhanced by a year of exposure in college. The endorsement money will not come until the value is demonstrated and that won't happen until the players have had some time on national TV, etc.

I wonder if the NBA has considered having the shoe companies sponsor/run some G-league teams directly - team Nike, team Addidas, and team New Balance could consist of straight from HS players - the brands would have tremendous incentive to develop their players and to market them aggressively and none of the cost would be born by the NBA.

Troublemaker
10-24-2018, 10:38 AM
Coach K's take on the G-league proposal is similar to some in this thread:

http://www.zagsblog.com/2018/10/24/coach-k-says-knicks-or-any-nba-team-could-be-hurt-by-new-nba-g-league-path/


“I’d like to wait and see what they’re going to do with the G League proposal because they threw that out but they didn’t talk about how you allocate,” Coach K told ESPN’s Maria Taylor from ACC Media Day. “If you’re the Knicks and you have a kid there at your affiliate and then he goes in the draft and you’ve developed him and then he goes to another place, I’m not sure that’s what they want. “As far as researching it, looking at it as an alternative, I’m all for that. It may be an alternative to what they might not be able to do in 2022 in getting rid of one-and-done.”

BandAlum83
10-24-2018, 10:55 AM
I can’t imagine an elite, Bagley-type player accepting a minimum deal when he could enter the draft and make millions as a top 5 pick. But I totally agree that the G league team needs some sort of incentive to develop the player. Otherwise there is zero motivation to sign and give playing time to a guy who will be drafted by somebody else in five months.

Playing in the G league is not a scaled down version of being in NBA. Guys fly commercial or ride buses, they stay in cheap hotels, they have to pay for their own meals, and they play in front of deserted gyms in the middle of nowhere. Seth Curry wrote about what a grind it is, saying they’d play a game and then ride on a bus for hours to get to the next city, they’d arrive at one in the morning and literally walk down the street to a McDonald’s to eat. Contrast that to coming to Duke and playing on ESPN thirty times, being in March Madness in front of millions, flying chartered jets and having catered meals, etc.

What kind of endorsement deal would a guy like Zion get with his 1.7 million instagram followers? Could he get a $5 million NIKE endorsement deal? Could he get another combined $1 million from South Carolina / Southeast based businesses?

I know there is only maybe one per generation player with market appeal like Zion, but if it were available, doesn't everyone think Zion would have skipped college? For gosh sakes, what are the AAU rules? Could he have given up amateur status and forgone high school ball just to play AAU or other league while getting millions as a junior or senior in HS?

Troublemaker
10-24-2018, 11:13 AM
What kind of endorsement deal would a guy like Zion get with his 1.7 million instagram followers? Could he get a $5 million NIKE endorsement deal? Could he get another combined $1 million from South Carolina / Southeast based businesses?

I know there is only maybe one per generation player with market appeal like Zion, but if it were available, doesn't everyone think Zion would have skipped college? For gosh sakes, what are the AAU rules? Could he have given up amateur status and forgone high school ball just to play AAU or other league while getting millions as a junior or senior in HS?

Why wasn't it available? Zion could've skipped college, signed an endorsement deal, and worked out for a year in preparation for the NBA draft.

He chose to go to Duke instead.

BandAlum83
10-24-2018, 11:15 AM
Why wasn't it available? Zion could've skipped college, signed an endorsement deal, and worked out for a year in preparation for the NBA draft.

He chose to go to Duke instead.

It wasn't available because Zion's gotta play and provide highlight reel dunks on a daily basis!

Duh!

Truth&Justise
10-24-2018, 11:21 AM
I couldn't disagree more with the bolded portion. I think endorsement money for players choosing to go a route where they will virtually disappear from the public eye for a year will be very minimal. The top-flight players who get the shoe contracts saw their value enhanced by a year of exposure in college. The endorsement money will not come until the value is demonstrated and that won't happen until the players have had some time on national TV, etc.

I'm just saying, I thought the same thing too, until New Balance offered a guaranteed $1 million to a relatively unknown player who's going to sit out a year. No signs yet that this will be a continuing trend, but it is a new data point to take into calibration.

hallcity
10-24-2018, 11:46 AM
I'm just saying, I thought the same thing too, until New Balance offered a guaranteed $1 million to a relatively unknown player who's going to sit out a year. No signs yet that this will be a continuing trend, but it is a new data point to take into calibration.

New Balance hasn't been a presence in the college or professional basketball world until now. If they want in, this would be a good way of doing it. Nike, Adidas and UnderArmour wouldn't want to offer contracts to HS seniors since that would undermine their college contracts. Offer some very talented basketball players $1 million or more to forego a year of college and many will say yes. You'd hope that most of them would make the G league or that New Balance could help the rest get coaching and maybe some games to play although I don't know how that would work. It gets the kids who don't really want to go to college somewhere to go. I think that's a good thing.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-24-2018, 01:14 PM
New Balance hasn't been a presence in the college or professional basketball world until now. If they want in, this would be a good way of doing it. Nike, Adidas and UnderArmour wouldn't want to offer contracts to HS seniors since that would undermine their college contracts. Offer some very talented basketball players $1 million or more to forego a year of college and many will say yes. You'd hope that most of them would make the G league or that New Balance could help the rest get coaching and maybe some games to play although I don't know how that would work. It gets the kids who don't really want to go to college somewhere to go. I think that's a good thing.

One mill a year for a HS senior will NOT WORK OUT WELL for New Balance. No way. Only someone, a generational player, who has a super huge following, like say Zion, would be worth it. And he's unique for being well known out of HS...no one since LeBron has been that well known in HS.

mo.st.dukie
10-24-2018, 01:24 PM
Why wasn't it available? Zion could've skipped college, signed an endorsement deal, and worked out for a year in preparation for the NBA draft.

He chose to go to Duke instead.

This is what most people don't understand. Players can ALREADY enter the G-League draft and play out of high school like that Bassey kid who had signed with Syracuse. The option for Zion to play in the G League this year is already there, his salary would just be that 50k or whatever is but he would be able to make endorsement dollars.

I think the only way the G League actually starts to get many elite high schoolers is if the league amenities and popularity grow. If you play at Duke you are traveling in style, eating fine meals, and you are famous and on tv all the time. G League is bus rides, McDonalds, and nobody cares about you except for the most hardcore basketball fans.

UrinalCake
10-24-2018, 01:34 PM
I'm just saying, I thought the same thing too, until New Balance offered a guaranteed $1 million to a relatively unknown player who's going to sit out a year. No signs yet that this will be a continuing trend, but it is a new data point to take into calibration.

I don’t think that type of deal is the norm. New Balance is trying to make a splash and enter the market, so they threw a ton of money at a player they knew would jump on it, in a situation that would garner headlines for them. They’re not going to be handing out these contracts indefinitely to every player ranked in the 20’s. More likely, the value of that level player is in the neighborhood of the $100k that Brian Bowen got.

hallcity
10-24-2018, 01:39 PM
One mill a year for a HS senior will NOT WORK OUT WELL for New Balance. No way. Only someone, a generational player, who has a super huge following, like say Zion, would be worth it. And he's unique for being well known out of HS...no one since LeBron has been that well known in HS.

Generational players get shoe contracts for tens of millions of dollars. I don't know what the entry level NBA shoe contracts are worth but they're not insignificant. Signing a promising kid to a deal that pays $1 million up front but commits him to multiple years at a modest rate if he becomes a star sounds to me like something that could work for a shoe company just trying to get its nose in the NBA door. In fact, that appears to be exactly what New Balance has done with this one player. I can't imagine them stopping there.

devilsadvocate85
10-24-2018, 03:26 PM
Coach K's take on the G-league proposal is similar to some in this thread:

http://www.zagsblog.com/2018/10/24/coach-k-says-knicks-or-any-nba-team-could-be-hurt-by-new-nba-g-league-path/


“I’d like to wait and see what they’re going to do with the G League proposal because they threw that out but they didn’t talk about how you allocate,” Coach K told ESPN’s Maria Taylor from ACC Media Day. “If you’re the Knicks and you have a kid there at your affiliate and then he goes in the draft and you’ve developed him and then he goes to another place, I’m not sure that’s what they want. “As far as researching it, looking at it as an alternative, I’m all for that. It may be an alternative to what they might not be able to do in 2022 in getting rid of one-and-done.”

see post from 9/19 -- https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?40275-2019-Men-s-Basketball-Recruiting&p=1090116#post1090116

HereBeforeCoachK
10-24-2018, 03:38 PM
Generational players get shoe contracts for tens of millions of dollars. I don't know what the entry level NBA shoe contracts are worth but they're not insignificant. Signing a promising kid to a deal that pays $1 million up front but commits him to multiple years at a modest rate if he becomes a star sounds to me like something that could work for a shoe company just trying to get its nose in the NBA door. In fact, that appears to be exactly what New Balance has done with this one player. I can't imagine them stopping there.

But generational players are RARE......this guy involved here is not going to be one of those. I think the last generational player in HS before Zion was LeBron. Before that, Kobe - and by generational, I mean someone who is big time and famous in high school. I think it would be a steal to get Zion for a mill a year.....but not so for 99.999999% of even the OAD types.

CrazyNotCrazie
10-24-2018, 03:53 PM
I don’t think that type of deal is the norm. New Balance is trying to make a splash and enter the market, so they threw a ton of money at a player they knew would jump on it, in a situation that would garner headlines for them. They’re not going to be handing out these contracts indefinitely to every player ranked in the 20’s. More likely, the value of that level player is in the neighborhood of the $100k that Brian Bowen got.

Exactly right. A week ago did any of us know New Balance was getting back into basketball? No. Now many of us do. Perhaps they could have gotten the same impact for half the money but it has worked out pretty well.

The difference between this plan for the G league is that apparently some infrastructure is being put in place around it so these players have some support. So it should theoretically be an easier transition. Though I don't know how that will impact team dynamics if the 18 year old kid is getting special treatment while the 25 year old who might have played for a top college team and had some time in the NBA is getting nothing.

lotusland
10-24-2018, 10:12 PM
I can’t imagine an elite, Bagley-type player accepting a minimum deal when he could enter the draft and make millions as a top 5 pick. But I totally agree that the G league team needs some sort of incentive to develop the player. Otherwise there is zero motivation to sign and give playing time to a guy who will be drafted by somebody else in five months.

Playing in the G league is not a scaled down version of being in NBA. Guys fly commercial or ride buses, they stay in cheap hotels, they have to pay for their own meals, and they play in front of deserted gyms in the middle of nowhere. Seth Curry wrote about what a grind it is, saying they’d play a game and then ride on a bus for hours to get to the next city, they’d arrive at one in the morning and literally walk down the street to a McDonald’s to eat. Contrast that to coming to Duke and playing on ESPN thirty times, being in March Madness in front of millions, flying chartered jets and having catered meals, etc.

Oops I meant to say allow the NBA team to offer their G league stars 15% above the maximum rookie salary instead of the minimum rookie salary.

lotusland
10-24-2018, 10:27 PM
I couldn't disagree more with the bolded portion. I think endorsement money for players choosing to go a route where they will virtually disappear from the public eye for a year will be very minimal. The top-flight players who get the shoe contracts saw their value enhanced by a year of exposure in college. The endorsement money will not come until the value is demonstrated and that won't happen until the players have had some time on national TV, etc.

So if Bags went to the G league instead of Duke, you don’t think shoe companies would have fought to ink a deal with him before a competitor did? That doesn’t seem likely considering how much time, effort and money they are spending on HS kids now (AAU sponsorship) with no guarantee that many of them will ever even make the NBA. The Adidas trial sure makes it seem like the shoe companies want to start paying the elite youngsters as soon as possible. Trevon Duval probably would have gotten a better deal in the G league last year than he can get now.

Indoor66
10-25-2018, 08:56 AM
Mark me as naive, but I don't buy anything because some celebrity of any kind endorses it. In fact endorsements tend to have a negative effect for me. I don't understand the amounts of these endorsement deals. It takes a lot of shoe sales to offset the $$$ spent on these deals.

devilsadvocate85
10-25-2018, 09:42 AM
So if Bags went to the G league instead of Duke, you don’t think shoe companies would have fought to ink a deal with him before a competitor did? That doesn’t seem likely considering how much time, effort and money they are spending on HS kids now (AAU sponsorship) with no guarantee that many of them will ever even make the NBA. The Adidas trial sure makes it seem like the shoe companies want to start paying the elite youngsters as soon as possible. Trevon Duval probably would have gotten a better deal in the G league last year than he can get now.

Until the G League becomes an attraction that people watch (and I'm not holding my breath), what I envision are contracts like Bazley's - which are almost completely contingent and heavily incentive laden. Marketing people pay for views, mentions, clicks, etc. and the G League has virtually no visibility. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25074140/rich-paul-darius-bazley-1-million-internship-result-broken-system This agent/advisor even states that this route isn't for everyone. Bazley isn't even playing, which further highlights how meaningless the "G League" option is to New Balance - his contract didn't even stipulate that he had to play in the G League to get payed. So New Balance is gambling $200K this year, with 4 future years contingent on being on the NBA roster in year 2 and "in the league" in years 3-5. Incentives (not disclosed), the agent claims, could earn him up to $14 million. My guess is not likely. In contrast, Marvin Bagley III signed a 5 year deal for $2-3 million per year. Why, because of the exposure he got at Duke and the likelihood of being a top 5 draft pick. Bazley runs the risk of earning nothing beyond year 1. He isn't playing against high level competition for a season and is missing out on a season of national TV exposure. He also runs the risk of falling behind players who have great college seasons. I'm not saying it won't work, but I don't believe there are companies rushing to pay kids to play (or not play) in the G League where no one will see them.

Dr. Rosenrosen
10-25-2018, 10:05 AM
Mark me as naive, but I don't buy anything because some celebrity of any kind endorses it. In fact endorsements tend to have a negative effect for me. I don't understand the amounts of these endorsement deals. It takes a lot of shoe sales to offset the $$$ spent on these deals.
My 12 year old basketball-playing son begs to differ. My wallet wishes it wasn’t the case.

Dr. Rosenrosen
10-25-2018, 10:07 AM
Isn’t this whole thing going to be irrelevant when they start allowing kids to jump directly from high school to the NBA again?

CrazyNotCrazie
10-25-2018, 10:19 AM
Until the G League becomes an attraction that people watch (and I'm not holding my breath), what I envision are contracts like Bazley's - which are almost completely contingent and heavily incentive laden. Marketing people pay for views, mentions, clicks, etc. and the G League has virtually no visibility. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25074140/rich-paul-darius-bazley-1-million-internship-result-broken-system This agent/advisor even states that this route isn't for everyone. Bazley isn't even playing, which further highlights how meaningless the "G League" option is to New Balance - his contract didn't even stipulate that he had to play in the G League to get payed. So New Balance is gambling $200K this year, with 4 future years contingent on being on the NBA roster in year 2 and "in the league" in years 3-5. Incentives (not disclosed), the agent claims, could earn him up to $14 million. My guess is not likely. In contrast, Marvin Bagley III signed a 5 year deal for $2-3 million per year. Why, because of the exposure he got at Duke and the likelihood of being a top 5 draft pick. Bazley runs the risk of earning nothing beyond year 1. He isn't playing against high level competition for a season and is missing out on a season of national TV exposure. He also runs the risk of falling behind players who have great college seasons. I'm not saying it won't work, but I don't believe there are companies rushing to pay kids to play (or not play) in the G League where no one will see them.

I am fairly sure that if Bagley had graduated from HS and announced that he was taking the year to just work out and live off his endorsement contracts, he still would have gotten a huge contract - I think his time at Duke added something to the value of his shoe contract, but not that much - LeBron has done fine without college exposure. And there was downside risk of Bagley going to Duke and playing poorly, getting injured, or whatever else. The shoe companies know who the best elementary school prospects are and would offer them a nice salary if they could. They spread their risk and figure if they pay enough prospects, the benefits of the wins will offset the cost of the guys who wash out.

With this G League deal, it allows the shoe companies to start paying top prospects (because remember, this is supposed to be limited to the top guys) a year earlier. The G League arrangement gives them a place to hang out and develop until they can play in the NBA. There is upside and downside to this. It is really no different from what they already were able to do, it is just a) better publicized, b) higher base money (which is peanuts compared to the endorsement dollars), and c) allegedly will have more built in safety nets to help the chosen few adapt to life in the real world.

Truth&Justise
10-25-2018, 10:26 AM
One slight correction: I've seen the deal reported as a guaranteed $1 million, but that's not quite accurate. According to Bazley's agent, Rich Paul:


Bazley will be paid a $200,000 base salary annually over five years, assuming he is on an NBA roster in the second year and in the league each season thereafter. Paul earlier this week told The New York Times that the internship was part of a multiyear shoe contract that could pay Bazley up to $14 million if he reaches performance incentives written into the contract.

Source (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25074140/rich-paul-darius-bazley-1-million-internship-result-broken-system).

This matters a bit -- we're talking about a handful of players each year, and getting offered $200,000 to train for a year is different than getting offered $1 million. Could change some minds on the margin.

This is still more than I thought any HS player would get in endorsements.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-25-2018, 10:52 AM
I am fairly sure that if Bagley had graduated from HS and announced that he was taking the year to just work out and live off his endorsement contracts, he still would have gotten a huge contract - I think his time at Duke added something to the value of his shoe contract, but not that much - LeBron has done fine without college exposure. .

You actually prove the other side of the argument with your LeBron example. LeBron is the exception - that proves the rule. Bagley had no where near the exposure LeBron had in HS, and social media was far smaller when LeBron was in HS. LeBron, Kobe, and if he's chosen to do so, Zion, would have been the exceptions....99.9999% are the rule.

JasonEvans
10-25-2018, 10:57 AM
It is worth noting that Darius Bazley (#13 in ESPN, #23 in 247, #17 in RSCI) is right on the cusp of guys who might get the proposed GLeague offer in my opinion. Had he gone to school, he would not have been seen as an automatic one and done (we had this discussion about Wendell Moore, who is ranked fairly similarly to Bazley). I don't see the NBA and GLeague throwing these $125k contracts at any top 50 kid who wants one. You need to be the kind of player who is very likely/certain to be OAD. Kids that you pretty much know are going to go in the lottery next year.

And it is worth noting that it would easily be worth it for shoe companies to sign kids like that a year earlier if they can. As previously noted, Nike/Addidas/Pump/UA/whoever would have gladly forked over $500k or $1 mil to get a long-term deal locked up with Marvin Bagley a year ago. That deal is about the attention and potential for stardom in the NBA, not about what he did playing for Duke.

Colin Sexton wasn't on TV very much at Alabama a year ago but he signed a Nike deal weeks after being drafted. Markele Fultz is making $1.5 mil a year from Nike and it has zero to do with his utterly forgettable time at Washington. Same with Ben Simmons and his lackluster season at LSU or Michael Porter barely taking the floor for Mizzu and then signing with Puma.

That year in college may help a little bit if you have a ton of success at a school that is on TV all the time and in the national title conversation (Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Kansas, a few others), but it is not like a star going to the GLeague is going to be worthless to a shoe company. And there is certainly something to be said for getting your guaranteed money NOW versus waiting (as Trevon Duval sadly learned).

-Jason "I just think James Wiseman and the other top 10 guys would be crazy to ignore this opportunity" Evans

Sir Stealth
10-25-2018, 02:05 PM
Players like Fultz/Simmons/Porter could probably have gotten endorsement money a year early as an early investment in their future NBA stock rather than going to school, but the fact that they chose to go to school anyway shows that the G-League option probably won't be worth much. For players a level down in hype like Sexton, it's probably less about getting college exposure than it is demonstrating that you will actually be a high NBA draft pick - I'm not sure a year in G-League limbo would have necessarily looked as impressive to scouts as his play at Alabama. Bazley has taken advantage of being unique within his class to get money now, but will he actually end up a relatively high pick without showing more in college competition? For other players like Marvin Bagley, I think that the national exposure really does help. He already had the top of class pedigree and shoe companies willing to invest money in sponsoring his AAU team, so companies would have sought to lock him into their side and wait out his year before entering the NBA, but his success and exposure at Duke probably upped the kind of deal he was able to get a year later by a lot. For a player who doesn't want to even pretend to go to school, I question whether the G-League experience with some more money thrown in is actually more appealing than a year overseas or just working out.

devilsadvocate85
10-25-2018, 02:16 PM
It is worth noting that Darius Bazley (#13 in ESPN, #23 in 247, #17 in RSCI) is right on the cusp of guys who might get the proposed GLeague offer in my opinion. Had he gone to school, he would not have been seen as an automatic one and done (we had this discussion about Wendell Moore, who is ranked fairly similarly to Bazley). I don't see the NBA and GLeague throwing these $125k contracts at any top 50 kid who wants one. You need to be the kind of player who is very likely/certain to be OAD. Kids that you pretty much know are going to go in the lottery next year.

And it is worth noting that it would easily be worth it for shoe companies to sign kids like that a year earlier if they can. As previously noted, Nike/Addidas/Pump/UA/whoever would have gladly forked over $500k or $1 mil to get a long-term deal locked up with Marvin Bagley a year ago. That deal is about the attention and potential for stardom in the NBA, not about what he did playing for Duke.

Colin Sexton wasn't on TV very much at Alabama a year ago but he signed a Nike deal weeks after being drafted. Markele Fultz is making $1.5 mil a year from Nike and it has zero to do with his utterly forgettable time at Washington. Same with Ben Simmons and his lackluster season at LSU or Michael Porter barely taking the floor for Mizzu and then signing with Puma.

That year in college may help a little bit if you have a ton of success at a school that is on TV all the time and in the national title conversation (Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Kansas, a few others), but it is not like a star going to the GLeague is going to be worthless to a shoe company. And there is certainly something to be said for getting your guaranteed money NOW versus waiting (as Trevon Duval sadly learned).

-Jason "I just think James Wiseman and the other top 10 guys would be crazy to ignore this opportunity" Evans


Important to remember that only $200K of Bazley's "shoe deal" is guaranteed. My bet is straight out of high school the guarantees are going to be lower than for players who have shown their skills in college or a year in the G League. But again, I don't think the G League thing is going to be much more than Coach K's proverbial "blip" when all is said and done.

Quick research:
Simmons was #1 in his HS class and #1 in the NBA draft -- his year at LSU probably just confirmed what scouts knew about his talents, not sure about his marketability
Fultz was #5 in his HS class and #1 in the NBA draft -- while maybe forgettable at UW, it clearly upped his draft stock and therefore his earning potential from endorsements
Porter was #2 in his HS class and #14 in the NBA draft -- not playing all year and fear that the injury could linger into his NBA career makes him a tough one to call
Sexton was #5 in his HS class and #8 in the NBA draft -- probably didn't gain much marketability by playing in college, though he was on the SEC network and nationally a few times and had some stellar performances. Possible that he jumped a couple spots in the draft

lotusland
10-25-2018, 08:41 PM
If only Luka Doncic had gotten the same national exposure that Bagley got Duke going into the draft maybe he could have been drafted a lot higher. Seems like the NBA guys are pretty focused on talent over fame with the lottery pics. They seem to be able to find the talent even when they’re not on national TV 30 times. Duke publicity is worth something but Luca Doncic and Ben Simmons did fine without it. There are good reasons to go to college, especially Duke, but I’m not convinced that draft position or endorsement contracts are among them for OAD level recruits.

CameronBornAndBred
10-25-2018, 09:14 PM
If only Luka Doncic had gotten the same national exposure that Bagley got Duke going into the draft maybe he could have been drafted a lot higher. Seems like the NBA guys are pretty focused on talent over fame with the lottery pics. They seem to be able to find the talent even when they’re not on national TV 30 times. Duke publicity is worth something but Luca Doncic and Ben Simmons did fine without it. There are good reasons to go to college, especially Duke, but I’m not convinced that draft position or endorsement contracts are among them for OAD level recruits.

As thorough and nitpicky as pro scouts are, does exposure actually make much of a difference during the draft? The teams are very aware of the players they are looking at, even though the public might not be.

UrinalCake
10-25-2018, 10:43 PM
I am fairly sure that if Bagley had graduated from HS and announced that he was taking the year to just work out and live off his endorsement contracts, he still would have gotten a huge contract - I think his time at Duke added something to the value of his shoe contract, but not that much - LeBron has done fine without college exposure.

The flip side of that argument is that if he had chosen to skip college and train on his own, it might have hurt his draft stock because teams would wonder why he avoided the competition. Mitchell Robinson (the guy who signed with Western Kentucky and then dropped out) is probably the best example of this. But really, it’s hard to draw any hard conclusions about guys who voluntarily skip college because there have only been a handful of them. Bazley, Brandon Jennings, Terrence Ferguson. I think there was a guy in this past draft who trained at IMG academy and was a fringe lottery pick. That’s about it. There are injury scenarios like Giles and Michael Porter, but that’s a different situation. If we ever get to the point where 5-10 guys are doing this every year, then we can start to see some trends but right now every case is different.

gep
10-26-2018, 12:31 AM
The flip side of that argument is that if he had chosen to skip college and train on his own, it might have hurt his draft stock because teams would wonder why he avoided the competition. Mitchell Robinson (the guy who signed with Western Kentucky and then dropped out) is probably the best example of this. But really, it’s hard to draw any hard conclusions about guys who voluntarily skip college because there have only been a handful of them. Bazley, Brandon Jennings, Terrence Ferguson. I think there was a guy in this past draft who trained at IMG academy and was a fringe lottery pick. That’s about it. There are injury scenarios like Giles and Michael Porter, but that’s a different situation. If we ever get to the point where 5-10 guys are doing this every year, then we can start to see some trends but right now every case is different.

But if he went to the G-League, he'll have games against "NBA" players to evaluate in addition to training on his own. :confused:

House P
10-26-2018, 02:18 PM
One slight correction: I've seen the deal reported as a guaranteed $1 million, but that's not quite accurate. According to Bazley's agent, Rich Paul:

This matters a bit -- we're talking about a handful of players each year, and getting offered $200,000 to train for a year is different than getting offered $1 million. Could change some minds on the margin.

This is still more than I thought any HS player would get in endorsements.

I think whether Jason ultimately wins his bet (at least 5 top 30 players accept $125K G League contracts) probably depends on the endorsement market for mid range prospects like Bazley. If these types of prospects can reliably end up with $350K or more in total compensation (salary, endorsements, no-interest loans/signing bonuses from agents), I wouldn't be surprised if Jason wins his bet.

Whether or not that type of money is a good investment for sponsors/agents is anybody's guess, but here is some context how players of Bazley's general caliber (RSCI #17) pan out.

Of the 93 players ranked between 15 and 19 in the RSCI from 1998-2016:

~2/3 ultimately played in the NBA
~1/3 ultimately had or are on track to have substantial NBA careers (defined as playing at least 250 career NBA games)
~1/6 ended up averaging 10 or more ppg for the NBA careers

In terms of career earnings
~1/2 made or are guaranteed to make $2.5M or more in NBA salary
~1/4 made or are guaranteed to make $10M or more in NBA salary
~1/6 made or are guaranteed to make $30M or more in NBA salary
~1/12 made or are guaranteed to make $75M or more in NBA salary

Here is a full list of all 61 future NBA players who were ranked between 15-19 in the RSCI between 1998 and 2016. This list is sorted by career NBA earnings. Games played, games started, career minutes played per game, and career points per game are also listed. The "Active" column denotes guys who have played at least 1 NBA game in the 2018-19 season as of Oct 25.





HS Class
RSCI
Player
Active
Career Earnings
GP
GS
MPG
PPG


2007
17
James Harden
Y
$ 317,585,742
691
478
33.8
23.0


2013
16
Joel Embiid
Y
$ 166,648,026
99
99
29.1
22.4


2007
16
Blake Griffin
Y
$ 154,496,050
533
533
35.1
21.6


2003
19
Trevor Ariza
Y
$ 91,320,530
946
645
29.5
10.5


1998
16
Corey Maggette

$ 89,131,524
827
478
28.2
16.0


2012
16
Gary Harris
Y
$ 81,312,615
260
208
28.5
12.5


2006
19
Robin Lopez
Y
$ 79,392,944
695
544
23.2
9.0


2001
16
Mo Williams

$ 67,611,931
818
525
29.2
13.2


2008
15
Kemba Walker
Y
$ 58,729,731
528
483
33.9
19.1


2005
15
Danny Green
Y
$ 52,693,631
545
469
25.2
8.8


2003
18
Charlie Villanueva

$ 51,577,806
656
163
20.7
10.4


2009
18
Mason Plumlee
Y
$ 47,399,770
394
239
22.3
8.6


2001
17
T.J. Ford

$ 43,534,324
429
306
27.7
11.2


2011
15
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Y
$ 41,741,533
393
351
30.7
11.9


2005
18
Andray Blatche

$ 39,726,505
564
191
22.1
10.1


2001
18
Josh Childress

$ 38,857,903
391
70
26.7
9.1


1998
19
Keyon Dooling

$ 30,471,031
728
86
19.4
0.7


2014
16
D'Angelo Russell
Y
$ 23,017,978
195
147
27.8
14.5


2004
19
Daniel Gibson

$ 22,100,174
397
77
23.5
7.8


2005
16
Gerald Green
Y
$ 21,946,295
589
118
19.7
9.8


2008
18
Tyler Zeller
Y
$ 17,226,833
406
165
17.6
7.0


2007
15
Anthony Randolph

$ 13,673,791
252
43
15.2
7.1


2010
15
Reggie Bullock
Y
$ 10,857,804
212
62
16.3
5.6


2008
19
Luke Babbitt

$ 10,588,763
381
107
14.0
4.8


2008
17
JaMychal Green
Y
$ 10,418,509
236
147
22.4
8.1


2002
18
Antoine Wright

$ 9,616,110
297
96
19.2
5.4


1999
17
DerMarr Johnson

$ 9,283,842
344
136
17.2
6.2


2012
19
Sam Dekker
Y
$ 7,921,655
157
3
15.0
5.3


2016
16
TJ Leaf
Y
$ 7,249,200
55
0
8.6
2.8


2013
16
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Y
$ 6,672,819
176
126
24.5
10.2


2016
15
Jarrett Allen
Y
$ 6,124,680
76
35
20.4
8.4


2011
18
Tony Wroten

$ 5,852,000
145
34
21.2
11.1


2015
16
Caleb Swanigan
Y
$ 5,239,080
28
3
6.9
2.2


2016
19
Tony Bradley

$ 5,056,800
9
0
3.2
0.9


2008
15
Elliot Williams

$ 4,647,474
109
2
13.5
4.9


1999
18
Casey Jacobsen

$ 3,892,319
287
14
18.5
5.2


2014
19
Chris McCollough

$ 3,803,102
59
4
9.0
3.3


2016
17
Omari Spellman
Y
$ 3,518,280
3
0
16.0
9.3


2005
17
Jon Brockman

$ 3,457,588
150
10
10.5
2.1


2015
15
Antonio Blakeney

$ 2,937,614
23
0
16.5
8.0


2009
19
Daniel Orton

$ 2,891,672
51
6
10.6
2.8


2007
18
Nolan Smith

$ 2,711,880
84
4
9.9
3.3


2015
19
Jalen Brunson
Y
$ 2,646,582
4
0
18.0
5.5


2006
15
Damion James

$ 2,449,658
39
17
16.0
3.8


2014
18
Tyler Ulis
Y
$ 2,230,980
133
58
20.9
7.5


2015
16
Dwayne Bacon
Y
$ 2,193,857
54
6
13.4
3.4


2002
16
Anthony Roberson

$ 1,463,454
65
1
9.1
4.1


2014
17
Daniel Hamilton

$ 1,349,383
6
0
4.7
2.0


2000
15
Andre Barrett

$ 1,129,828
67
1
12.2
3.3


2006
17
Derrick Caracter

$ 744,031
41
0
5.2
2.0


2002
19
Dee Brown

$ 651,280
68
11
10.5
2.1


2011
19
Kyle Wiltjer

$ 543,471
14
0
3.1
0.9


2011
17
Branden Dawson

$ 525,093
6
0
4.8
0.8


2007
19
Gani Lawal

$ 473,640
1
0
2.0
0.0


2006
16
Vernon Macklin

$ 473,604
23
0
5.9
2.0


2001
19
Cedric Bozeman

$ 412,718
23
5
8.7
1.1


2004
18
DeMarcus Nelson

$ 182,047
13
5
13.2
4.1


2012
17
Rodney Purvis

$ 161,280
16
2
18.1
6.0


2001
15
Aaron Miles

$ 155,614
19
0
6.2
0.8


2004
15
Darius Washington

$ 154,847
18
0
8.1
2.9


2011
16
Jabari Brown

$ 44,765
19
5
29.9
11.9

House P
10-26-2018, 04:20 PM
And it is worth noting that it would easily be worth it for shoe companies to sign kids like that a year earlier if they can. As previously noted, Nike/Addidas/Pump/UA/whoever would have gladly forked over $500k or $1 mil to get a long-term deal locked up with Marvin Bagley a year ago. That deal is about the attention and potential for stardom in the NBA, not about what he did playing for Duke.

-Jason "I just think James Wiseman and the other top 10 guys would be crazy to ignore this opportunity" Evans

My previous post looked at players ranked 15-19 in the final RSCI rankings. This post will look at the NBA prospects for guys ranked at the top of the RSCI rankings.

Of the 79 guys ranked in the top 4 of the RSCI since 1998

- all but two (Isaiah Austin and Kelvin Torbert) ended up playing in the NBA
- 87% were drafted in the 1st round
- 67% were drafted in the top 14

How much a shoe company would be willing to pay for a long term contract with a player who has an 87% chance of being drafted in the first round and 67% chance of being drafted in the lottery? Would it be enough money to get such a player to skip college?

For what it is worth, 14 of the 19 players ranked #1 in the final RSCI ratings ended up being top 10 draft picks (more than half of these players were picked in the top 4).

JasonEvans
10-26-2018, 06:14 PM
My previous post looked at players ranked 15-19 in the final RSCI rankings. This post will look at the NBA prospects for guys ranked at the top of the RSCI rankings.

Of the 79 guys ranked in the top 4 of the RSCI since 1998

Mad props for your exhaustive research! I need to spread the love but I hope others are giving you sporks to reward what you have done.

I would argue that 1998 is not a good time to start your rankings. The attitude about the NBA toward drafting on potential has really evolved over the years. I mean there were only 2 freshmen and 1 high schooler taken in the first round in 1998. Today, you don't see 3 seniors taken in the first round.

I would think that somewhere around 2007, when the OAD rule came into existence, would be a better benchmark. Or perhaps even 2010, seeing as every draft starting in that year featured a freshman as the #1 pick.

Don't want to make more work for you, but if we are to judge the decision-making of players and shoe companies today, I'm not sure that 1998-2006 or so is really all that useful in terms of data.

-Jason "I'll add one more thing... everyone talks about exposure, but if you put several of the guys who are going to be lottery picks next year in the GLeague, I guarantee their games would get better ratings and more attention than the GLeague gets today" Evans

HereBeforeCoachK
10-26-2018, 06:38 PM
I would argue that 1998 is not a good time to start your rankings. The attitude about the NBA toward drafting on potential has really evolved over the years. I mean there were only 2 freshmen and 1 high schooler taken in the first round in 1998. Today, you don't see 3 seniors taken in the first round.

I would think that somewhere around 2007, when the OAD rule came into existence, would be a better benchmark. Or perhaps even 2010, seeing as every draft starting in that year featured a freshman as the #1 pick.

Don't want to make more work for you, but if we are to judge the decision-making of players and shoe companies today, I'm not sure that 1998-2006 or so is really all that useful in terms of data.

-Jason "I'll add one more thing... everyone talks about exposure, but if you put several of the guys who are going to be lottery picks next year in the GLeague, I guarantee their games would get better ratings and more attention than the GLeague gets today" Evans

I was also thinking this new era started around 2010 also....or even later. 1998 through 2009 is really not relevant.

House P
10-27-2018, 11:58 AM
I would think that somewhere around 2007, when the OAD rule came into existence, would be a better benchmark. Or perhaps even 2010, seeing as every draft starting in that year featured a freshman as the #1 pick.

Don't want to make more work for you, but if we are to judge the decision-making of players and shoe companies today, I'm not sure that 1998-2006 or so is really all that useful in terms of data.

Very good point about the NBA's changing attitude regarding drafting Freshmen based on potential and not performance. The #17 ranked high school player in 2018 is way more likely to end up in the NBA within a year or two than the #17 ranked high school player in 1998 was. That being said, my post focused on whether or not the players eventually had (meaningful) NBA careers regardless of when they were drafted. In this regard, there might not be too big of a difference between the #17 ranked high school player in 1998 and the #17 ranked player in 2018.

If you look only at the 55 players ranked #15-19 in the RSCI from the start of the one-and-done era in 2006 through 2016:

- 39 (71%) have played in the NBA
- 16 (29%) have played in at least 250 NBA games, or are highly likely to do so. It is fairly likely that at least a couple more early career guys such as Omari Spellman, Jalen Brunson, Caleb Swanigan, Sam Dekker, TJ Leaf, and Dwayne Bacon will go on to play 250+ NBA games.

From a salary point of view,

- 31 of the players (56%) have guaranteed NBA career earnings of at least $2M
- 21 of the players (38%) have guaranteed earnings of at least $5M.

So, I think it is fair to say that a top 15-20 high school player has roughly a 2 in 3 chance of making the NBA and a 1 in 3 chance of having a meaningful NBA career.

From the point of view of a shoe company or agent, it is probably worth noting that many of the guys who will eventually have meaningful NBA careers may not be ready to do so a year after graduating high school. A great example of this is JaMychal Green. Green is currently a starter for the Grizzlies, but he didn't establish himself in the NBA until he was 25 years old. I am not sure that offering Green a $200K per year shoe contract right out of high school would necessarily have been a good idea.



-Jason "I'll add one more thing... everyone talks about exposure, but if you put several of the guys who are going to be lottery picks next year in the GLeague, I guarantee their games would get better ratings and more attention than the GLeague gets today" Evans

I agree. Several folks have asked "what in this for the NBA?". Well, if the NBA wants to elevate the profile of the G League, I can't think of a better way to do this than by spending $1M or so to lure a handful of potential lottery picks to play a full year in the G Leagyue. Much easier to market G League as a "showcase for next year's lottery picks" rather than a "showcase for this year's 10 day contract recipients".

House P
10-27-2018, 12:06 PM
I was also thinking this new era started around 2010 also...or even later. 1998 through 2009 is really not relevant.

If you limit the analysis to the 35 players who were ranked #15-19 in the RSCI between 2010 and 2016,

- 23 (66%) have played in the NBA
- Somewhere between 8 and 14 (23%-40%) are on track to play at least 250 games in the NBA
- 18 (51%) are guaranteed to make at least $2M in NBA salary

Troublemaker
05-28-2019, 09:02 AM
Okay, my friend. I agree. **Shakes on it**

To review our wager:

If at least 5 of the top 30 players (according to 247's Composite rankings) sign a Select Contract, JasonEvans wins.
If 4 or fewer of that pool of 30 players sign a Select Contract, Troublemaker wins.
If the NBA scraps the Select Contract, and there is mainstream media reporting that the NBA did it because they expected too few players to take the offer, then Troublemaker wins.
If the NBA sweetens the pot of what they're offering high school prospects, it is a push between us.


I have a feeling that last one is going to save your butt, my friend. Anyway, the prize is: for one week, when we make posts on DBR, the loser will praise the winner as a genius.


Gambling is fun!
https://i.redd.it/0g7hi8rqpv701.gif



Jason, if the G-League is going to lose prospects like RJ Hampton to Australia / New Zealand, not looking good for you on this bet, my friend.

I think it's very possible you end up with 0 players of the top 30 signing a Select Contract.

UrinalCake
05-28-2019, 11:52 AM
This may go down in history as the most lopsided pie bet ever. I would venture to guess that 95% of casual fans have completely forgotten that this whole Select Contract idea was ever a thing.

Troublemaker
05-28-2019, 12:31 PM
This may go down in history as the most lopsided pie bet ever. I would venture to guess that 95% of casual fans have completely forgotten that this whole Select Contract idea was ever a thing.


That option still exists, but nobody chose it. The top level players who would be eligible for this all decided, as we expected, that going to college is worth more. Also I heard a snippet on a random podcast recently where the father of a player said they considered it but that after taxes and expenses it was more like $80k that the player would receive and they are just better off going to college and getting the scholarship and stipend and, most importantly, the exposure.

Ha! Well, first of all, Jason and I didn't bet a pie. We bet that the loser would spend a week praising the bejeezus out of the winner (looks like me) as a genius.

Secondly, it's easy to say that this outcome was expected or lopsided now. But if you go back and read the thread from the start, I was sort of bucking a weak consensus that $125,000 would be very meaningful to these players. To be fair, $125K *is* meaningful to lots of folks, of course, just not all that meaningful to elite basketball talent in comparison to how valuable the college basketball experience and exposure are.

The people who didn't realize this obviously included the NBA / G-League. As ESPN (Givony) reported in an article today (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26837109/what-rj-hampton-surprise-choice-means):
The G League likely won't take kindly to losing out on a player of Hampton's caliber, and it may need to rethink its program structure moving forward considering it has yet to sign a single player for next season.

There's no shame here for losing this bet to me.

53n206
05-28-2019, 01:51 PM
Has there been reference to the probability that one year (or one semester) of college may not mean anything to many pro caliber ball players? Like location is to real estate "exposure" is to some athletes. They weigh the benefits of salary vs exposure and decide. Pretty simple.

JasonEvans
05-28-2019, 01:59 PM
Jason, if the G-League is going to lose prospects like RJ Hampton to Australia / New Zealand, not looking good for you on this bet, my friend.

I think it's very possible you end up with 0 players of the top 30 signing a Select Contract.

https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/67289652.jpg

HereBeforeCoachK
05-29-2019, 11:46 AM
Has there been reference to the probability that one year (or one semester) of college may not mean anything to many pro caliber ball players? Like location is to real estate "exposure" is to some athletes. They weigh the benefits of salary vs exposure and decide. Pretty simple.

And many decide the year of exposure is indeed far more valuable than G League salary....(gee, who coulda possibly seen that coming???)

Dukehk
05-29-2019, 12:07 PM
You earn so much more from the exposure in national games and on national media just from raising your brand and marketability (see: Zion Williamson).

Then of course there is the chance to improve/solidify your draft stock and improve your game under the BEST facilities and coaching (if you're lucky enough to play for a top tier D1 program).

I think most top kids would pass up on the money. Then there is also the issue that they probably wouldn't offer 100k to someone ranked below 30 in the high school class.

Troublemaker
05-29-2019, 12:59 PM
And many decide the year of exposure is indeed far more valuable than G League salary...(gee, who coulda possibly seen that coming???)

If you read through the thread from the beginning, more people thought this was a gamechanger than didn't.

You yourself had a post (below) that was a mixed bag. I think we'd have to ding you for the bolded sentence below, for example, but I do give you credit for providing the endorsement/exposure example afterwards, although I'm not certain that's the primary factor why kids are rejecting the $125K.

No hard feelings, of course. Just saying... this wasn't necessarily that easy a call at the time.


I think only a few a year will get the 125K - the G league is going to lose it's financial arse on this. That said, I think it's a great idea and I think a lot of players will go that route who have the opportunity. However, I can think of a very good reason to go the college route for a year: let's compare careers, hypothetically, of a player's two options:

G League and then NBA: 150 million plus 125K for a year...= 150.125 million
College OAD and NBA: 150 million plus additional 10 million in endorsements due to major college exposure for a year while your contemporaries are playing in front of empty arenas = maybe more money over the career.

Purely hypothetical, and there's a ton of variables, but a case can be made for the player to do either. That is, unless the player's family is in dire need of money now, then it's no brainer.

Troublemaker
05-29-2019, 01:18 PM
Some good news for you, Jason.

The only remaining uncommitted top-30 player (https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/CompositeRecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool) is LaMelo Ball.

And LaMelo is "seriously" considering the G-League Select Contract (https://lonzowire.usatoday.com/2019/05/26/lamelo-ball-college-eligibility-news-nba-g-league-lonzo-lavar/).

That will get you to 1.

UrinalCake
05-29-2019, 01:53 PM
Is LaMelo even eligible to play in college?

House P
05-29-2019, 02:44 PM
To be fair, $125K *is* meaningful to lots of folks, of course, just not all that meaningful to elite basketball talent in comparison to how valuable the college basketball experience and exposure are.

The people who didn't realize this obviously included the NBA / G-League. As ESPN (Givony) reported in an article today (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26837109/what-rj-hampton-surprise-choice-means):
The G League likely won't take kindly to losing out on a player of Hampton's caliber, and it may need to rethink its program structure moving forward considering it has yet to sign a single player for next season.

Now that we know that nobody* is likely to accept the G Leauge's $125K offer, the obvious question for pointless, off-season speculation is "How much would the G League have to offer in order to convince a significant number of top 30 players to sign Select Contracts?"

One data point is that RJ Hampton's Australia/NZ contract is reportedly worth "well beyond the G Leauge's $125,000 salary (https://usatodayhss.com/2019/r-j-hampton-opts-to-play-professionally-in-new-zealand-over-college)".

The even more pointless corollary question is "How much would the G League have to offer if the shoe companies, Sean Miller, and others weren't (allegedly) paying top players to go to college?"




*Except LaMelo Ball, perhaps

Edouble
05-29-2019, 04:09 PM
Is LaMelo even eligible to play in college?

No, he is not. It's G League or overseas.

JasonEvans
05-29-2019, 04:11 PM
That will get you to 1.

C'mon Lonzo... get me off the schneid!


Now that we know that nobody* is likely to accept the G Leauge's $125K offer, the obvious question for pointless, off-season speculation is "How much would the G League have to offer in order to convince a significant number of top 30 players to sign Select Contracts?"

One data point is that RJ Hampton's Australia/NZ contract is reportedly worth "well beyond the G Leauge's $125,000 salary (https://usatodayhss.com/2019/r-j-hampton-opts-to-play-professionally-in-new-zealand-over-college)".

The even more pointless corollary question is "How much would the G League have to offer if the shoe companies, Sean Miller, and others weren't (allegedly) paying top players to go to college?"

I suspect it would need to be in the $250-300k range. I'd be sorta surprised if the NBL is paying much more than that and there is certainly a benefit to staying in the US of A for these youngsters.

-Jason "as for the shoe company money, I suspect it has at least a little bit dried up since a bunch of folks got caught in the FBI net" Evans

HereBeforeCoachK
05-29-2019, 04:16 PM
If you read through the thread from the beginning, more people thought this was a gamechanger than didn't.

You yourself had a post (below) that was a mixed bag. I think we'd have to ding you for the bolded sentence below, for example, but I do give you credit for providing the endorsement/exposure example afterwards, although I'm not certain that's the primary factor why kids are rejecting the $125K.

No hard feelings, of course. Just saying... this wasn't necessarily that easy a call at the time.
-
It was an easy call. I think you misread - and I indeed mis-stated my comment about it being a great idea. I thought it was a great idea for the G League, and a great idea to demonstrate what the economics of players/schools/non NBA pro opportunities really are. I never thought it would be a great idea for a lot of players to accept - because the only players the G League would offer 125 to would be super stars at high profile colleges. I'll take the blame for the mis understanding.

Troublemaker
05-29-2019, 06:31 PM
Now that we know that nobody* is likely to accept the G Leauge's $125K offer, the obvious question for pointless, off-season speculation is "How much would the G League have to offer in order to convince a significant number of top 30 players to sign Select Contracts?"

One data point is that RJ Hampton's Australia/NZ contract is reportedly worth "well beyond the G Leauge's $125,000 salary (https://usatodayhss.com/2019/r-j-hampton-opts-to-play-professionally-in-new-zealand-over-college)".

The even more pointless corollary question is "How much would the G League have to offer if the shoe companies, Sean Miller, and others weren't (allegedly) paying top players to go to college?"

*Except LaMelo Ball, perhaps

RJ Hampton's contract includes an $800,000 buyout (https://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-rj-hampton-skips-college-basketball-overseas-20190528-story.html). I'm guessing that means Hampton is making a shade over $800K, i.e. his New Zealand team will recoup almost all his salary when he leaves for the NBA. (Now that I think about it, I suppose it's also possible the buyout is more than his salary, i.e. his team profits when he leaves for the NBA, which can explain why New Zealand is interested in doing this. Then again, it feels like there might be law preventing buyout > salary).

So somewhere between $125K and $800K.

Troublemaker
05-29-2019, 06:48 PM
One way to look at it -- maybe -- is that a person making $125K isn't typically getting access to charter flights, top-of-the-line workout facilities and trainers, catered meals overseen by top-of-the-line nutritionists, 5-star hotels (I'm guessing), Hall-of-Fame coaching, etc.

You can put $125K in the bank minus taxes. Or you can live the life of a basketball millionaire for a year (before actually becoming a basketball millionaire).

arnie
05-29-2019, 08:23 PM
And ESPN continuing to cash in on college b-ball: Zion specifically. ESPNU carrying random 2019 Duke games tonight and ESPN2 carried them this afternoon BC, Indiana and others.

I don’t ever recall anyone carrying repeats of random college games 2 months after season ended.

devildeac
05-29-2019, 10:18 PM
And ESPN continuing to cash in on college b-ball: Zion specifically. ESPNU carrying random 2019 Duke games tonight and ESPN2 carried them this afternoon BC, Indiana and others.

I don’t ever recall anyone carrying repeats of random college games 2 months after season ended.

Whaddaya think they're going to show, videos of "u"nc athletes carrying books around and attending classes? :rolleyes::mad:

JasonEvans
05-29-2019, 10:18 PM
And ESPN continuing to cash in on college b-ball: Zion specifically. ESPNU carrying random 2019 Duke games tonight and ESPN2 carried them this afternoon BC, Indiana and others.

I don’t ever recall anyone carrying repeats of random college games 2 months after season ended.

Well, they have a lot of network air time to fill with all those channels.

https://melmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/1hUUFbRLGWSdmsVtrQG9Wlw.png

HereBeforeCoachK
05-30-2019, 08:11 AM
One way to look at it -- maybe -- is that a person making $125K isn't typically getting access to charter flights, top-of-the-line workout facilities and trainers, catered meals overseen by top-of-the-line nutritionists, 5-star hotels (I'm guessing), Hall-of-Fame coaching, etc.

You can put $125K in the bank minus taxes. Or you can live the life of a basketball millionaire for a year (before actually becoming a basketball millionaire).

Preach bros.

frb
05-30-2019, 09:08 AM
I don't think the money is the main issue. It's the G League competition. It's too good for a HS kid to risk being exposed against... and will the coach really invest much? the player wouldn't be attached to a parent club and virtually all the G league teams are owned directly or indirectly by their parent club.

UrinalCake
05-30-2019, 09:36 AM
I don't think the money is the main issue. It's the G League competition. It's too good for a HS kid to risk being exposed against... and will the coach really invest much? the player wouldn't be attached to a parent club and virtually all the G league teams are owned directly or indirectly by their parent club.

Not only that but your teammates on a G league team are all trying to make it themselves, they’re not in a position to want to help you or build you up. And I would imagine that a 19 year old superstar making $125k is going to face some backlash from his older teammates who are making $40k. The parent club of that G league team has no motivation to help develop you either, because you’re going to enter the draft after the season and they have no rights to you.

The flip side is that you are free to earn money off endorsements. So there’s no cap on how much money you could theoretically make. But outside of Zion, I’m not sure how many of these players would command a big endorsement deal.

Truth&Justise
05-30-2019, 09:48 AM
I don't think the money is the main issue. It's the G League competition. It's too good for a HS kid to risk being exposed against... and will the coach really invest much? the player wouldn't be attached to a parent club and virtually all the G league teams are owned directly or indirectly by their parent club.


Not only that but your teammates on a G league team are all trying to make it themselves, they’re not in a position to want to help you or build you up. And I would imagine that a 19 year old superstar making $125k is going to face some backlash from his older teammates who are making $40k. The parent club of that G league team has no motivation to help develop you either, because you’re going to enter the draft after the season and they have no rights to you.

Good points about competing with teammates and possibly being exposed by the level of competition in the G-League.

But I'm also curious how this plays out with regard to guys who go overseas. Are RJ Hampton's teammates on the New Zealand Breakers really invested in his success, knowing he will definitely be gone next year? What is the financial side like? Also, it seems like the Breakers' coach, whose goal is to win a championship, has less incentive to play a young guy who isn't yet ready for pro ball, as opposed to a G-League coach, who is there to develop players and implement a system from the parent club, with winning games a secondary concern.

Of course these concerns play out in college too, where coaches have to balance development with winning now, guys sometimes eschew coaching to audition for the pros, and jealousies can run rampant. However, IMO it seems like most top-tier college coaches have figured out that balancing act fairly well, and most guys understand that if you buy in and work hard at a top flight program, you'll get noticed.

Not sure I have any clear conclusion, just that these issues can play out--to varying degrees--at all levels of basketball.

sagegrouse
05-30-2019, 02:48 PM
Good points about competing with teammates and possibly being exposed by the level of competition in the G-League.

But I'm also curious how this plays out with regard to guys who go overseas. Are RJ Hampton's teammates on the New Zealand Breakers really invested in his success, knowing he will definitely be gone next year? What is the financial side like? Also, it seems like the Breakers' coach, whose goal is to win a championship, has less incentive to play a young guy who isn't yet ready for pro ball, as opposed to a G-League coach, who is there to develop players and implement a system from the parent club, with winning games a secondary concern.

Of course these concerns play out in college too, where coaches have to balance development with winning now, guys sometimes eschew coaching to audition for the pros, and jealousies can run rampant. However, IMO it seems like most top-tier college coaches have figured out that balancing act fairly well, and most guys understand that if you buy in and work hard at a top flight program, you'll get noticed.

Not sure I have any clear conclusion, just that these issues can play out--to varying degrees--at all levels of basketball.

Do any other leagues have 48-minute games -- 12-minute quarters vs. 10 minutes? Forty-eight minutes creates a lot of extra playing time over 40-minute games -- the top NBA players average under 37 minutes per game.

awhom111
05-30-2019, 09:54 PM
Do any other leagues have 48-minute games -- 12-minute quarters vs. 10 minutes? Forty-eight minutes creates a lot of extra playing time over 40-minute games -- the top NBA players average under 37 minutes per game.

Besides the NBA and G League, I believe that the other leagues that play 48 minutes are in Canada, China, and the Philippines. South Korea was planning on switching from 40 to 48 and decrease the number of total games, but I do not know if they followed through on that. Australia used to play 48 and then harmonized with the rest of the world.

The real takeaway is that the former players put in charge of this program by the NBA are clearly stealing their salaries at this point.

JasonEvans
05-18-2020, 08:17 AM
Okay, my friend. I agree. **Shakes on it**

To review our wager:

If at least 5 of the top 30 players (according to 247's Composite rankings) sign a Select Contract, JasonEvans wins.
If 4 or fewer of that pool of 30 players sign a Select Contract, Troublemaker wins.
If the NBA scraps the Select Contract, and there is mainstream media reporting that the NBA did it because they expected too few players to take the offer, then Troublemaker wins.
If the NBA sweetens the pot of what they're offering high school prospects, it is a push between us.


I have a feeling that last one is going to save your butt, my friend. Anyway, the prize is: for one week, when we make posts on DBR, the loser will praise the winner as a genius.

Sigh... I was a year late on this but a loss is a loss. Time to pay up to the person who is unquestioningly smarter than me, Troublemaker.

Troublemaker
05-18-2020, 08:31 AM
Sigh... I was a year late on this but a loss is a loss. Time to pay up to the person who is unquestioningly smarter than me, Troublemaker.

Aw shucks! "Smarter than I," says my now 90-year old grammar teacher.