Welcome to Duke, Wendell Moore!!!

[ChillinDuke]

We got one!!! Welcome, Wendell!!!

Thank God, for the Board's sake.

- Chillin

[sagegrouse]

We got one!!! Welcome, Wendell!!!

Thank God, for the Board's sake.

- Chillin

Welcome, indeed, to Wendell and a wa-a-ay better attitude on DBR. Yay!!

[Troublemaker]

Welcome, Wendell!!!

High school stats for his junior year here (MaxPreps) (http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/wendell-moore-jr/kwwqUoSmEeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm)

AAU stats for this past summer here (D1Circuit) (https://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/24357786)

[Troublemaker]

Jeff Borzello‏Verified account @jeffborzello (https://twitter.com/jeffborzello) 5m5 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/jeffborzello/status/1049437130508910592)
Spoke to Wendell Moore just a little while ago. He had this to say about Duke: “If I am fortunate enough to make it to the NBA, this is always a place I can call home.
“It’s always been a dream of mine to go to Duke.”

[ChillinDuke]

Jeff Borzello‏Verified account @jeffborzello (https://twitter.com/jeffborzello) 5m5 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/jeffborzello/status/1049437130508910592)
Spoke to Wendell Moore just a little while ago. He had this to say about Duke: “If I am fortunate enough to make it to the NBA, this is always a place I can call home.
“It’s always been a dream of mine to go to Duke.”


Wendell is likely a fringe OAD. He's currently ranked #22 in the RSCI, and he sounds like a bit of a tweener between SG and SF from what little I know, unless he has a killer jumpshot (which I haven't heard).

Objectively, he may be here for more than a year. Which I love.

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beuDesG3BM8

[WHOneedsSOX]

Wendell is likely a fringe OAD. He's currently ranked #22 in the RSCI, and he sounds like a bit of a tweener between SG and SF from what little I know, unless he has a killer jumpshot (which I haven't heard).

Objectively, he may be here for more than a year. Which I love.

- Chillin
Article I just read says his shot isn't great and he's a slasher.

https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2018/10/wendell-moore-duke-basketball-class-of-2019-recruiting-signs-kentucky

[OldPhiKap]

Welcome!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Welcome, indeed, to Wendell and a wa-a-ay better attitude on DBR. Yay!!

I've stayed off this thread, other than to pop in from time to time, because I have sort of dreaded the inevitable transitions....from OAD to more normal development.....and from K to, well, whoever, whenever. I really do not like the OAD, never have, but we were potentially facing down a very rough transition. This development might help smooth that out.

[Troublemaker]

Wendell was a starter on the gold-medal winning USA U17 team this past summer (https://www.usab.com/mens/u17/stats.aspx)

Nice assist to turnover ratio.

https://i.imgur.com/Y3VYKcF.png

[arnie]

With Wendell, our talent level now exceeds 1982😀

[UrinalCake]

I've stayed off this thread, other than to pop in from time to time, because I have sort of dreaded the inevitable transitions...from OAD to more normal development....and from K to, well, whoever, whenever. I really do not like the OAD, never have, but we were potentially facing down a very rough transition. This development might help smooth that out.

Wendell sounds like the perfect recruit - just under the level of a OAD so you’ll have him for more than a year, yet talented enough to make an impact even in his first year. We’ll need scorers around him but he’ll be an excellent foundational piece of the team moving forward. And he loves Duke!

[Troublemaker]

Wendell was also a starter the previous summer (2017) on the gold-medal winning USA U16 team.

Nice steals total.

https://i.imgur.com/92vi503.png

[Son of Jarhead]

Welcome to Duke, Wendell! :cool:

I think this kid is a great fit for the Duke family. Talented, smart, humble, hardworking... in other words, a Blue Devil.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Welcome Wendell! LGD GTHc!

[Troublemaker]

The moment that he announces for Duke in video form below:

Wendell had went backstage to put on his school choice's gear. At the 30 second mark of the video, Wendell walks back on stage in Duke gear, and the crowd explodes in cheers and applause. (There had been people in the crowd cheering for "red" / NCSU. But nope, Duke blue.)

https://twitter.com/i/videos/1049437747235164160

[ChillinDuke]

Wendell was also a starter the previous summer (2017) on the gold-medal winning USA U16 team.

Nice steals total.

https://i.imgur.com/92vi503.png

But in both events, v bad 3pt %. Although the FT % is solid, hopefully indicating potential.


Welcome to Duke, Wendell! :cool:

I think this kid is a great fit for the Duke family. Talented, smart, humble, hardworking... in other words, a Blue Devil.

From the segment they showed on that (stupid) ADSN feed, he really does seem like a great kid from a nice family. He came off as a great balance of relaxed, level-headed, and engaging.

I'm excited to focus more on and learn more about Wendell Moore Jr. in the coming months (and hopefully years). [Note: apparently those in his circle call him "Junior" - according to the ADSN feed.]

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

Welcome, Wendell!!!

High school stats for his junior year here (MaxPreps) (http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/wendell-moore-jr/kwwqUoSmEeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm)

AAU stats for this past summer here (D1Circuit) (https://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/24357786)

Based on his high school stats, Wendell is comfortable putting up threes from the high school line: 5.6 attempts/gm with 32% accuracy.

That's not horrible, but he needs to extend his range. He was much more shy (and less accurate) shooting threes from the AAU line (1 ft longer) and from the FIBA line (~2.5 ft longer).

He seems to be a very good FT shooter (>80% in AAU and high school), so I think he can extend the range, given time.

[Furniture]

Very nice...Welcome.

[chrishoke]

I wonder if Brian Davis might be a good comparison.

[Furniture]

The moment that he announces for Duke in video form below:

Wendell had went backstage to put on his school choice's gear. At the 30 second mark of the video, Wendell walks back on stage in Duke gear, and the crowd explodes in cheers and applause. (There had been people in the crowd cheering for "red" / NCSU. But nope, Duke blue.)

https://twitter.com/i/videos/1049437747235164160

I love it everytime I see someone do this. It never gets old.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I love it everytime I see someone do this. It never gets old.

HAH..I'm gonna have to start using DDMF more often

[Dukeblue91]

Welcome to Duke!
Happy to have you.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Moore seems like a perfect fit for the wing rotation next season and beyond. If he doesn't start, he will be the first player off the bench. What I especially like is that he will compliment the other wings, Jack White, Alex O'Connell, and Joey Baker. Those three can all shoot the ball from distance and are tall enough to match up with most off guards and small forwards in college. Moore is going to be the best athlete of the bunch. While his 3-point shot is not where it needs to be, I do believe he will get there in time. Over a large sample size, Moore was an accurate free throw shooter in the EYBL circuit over the summer. He shot better than 85% from the free throw line on 138 attempts. He's a great rebounder for his position, steals the ball, distributes, and finishes at the rim. He is a do-it-all kind of talent that has the potential to develop into a special player at Duke. I'm excited that he will get to live his dream of becoming a Blue Devil next season!

[dukelifer]

Moore seems like a perfect fit for the wing rotation next season and beyond. If he doesn't start, he will be the first player off the bench. What I especially like is that he will compliment the other wings, Jack White, Alex O'Connell, and Joey Baker. Those three can all shoot the ball from distance and are tall enough to match up with most off guards and small forwards in college. Moore is going to be the best athlete of the bunch. While his 3-point shot is not where it needs to be, I do believe he will get there in time. Over a large sample size, Moore was an accurate free throw shooter in the EYBL circuit over the summer. He shot better than 85% from the free throw line on 138 attempts. He's a great rebounder for his position, steals the ball, distributes, and finishes at the rim. He is a do-it-all kind of talent that has the potential to develop into a special player at Duke. I'm excited that he will get to live his dream of becoming a Blue Devil next season!

Not a one and done player for sure- but has the tools to be a very good college player in a couple of years.

[Newton_14]

Welcome to Duke Wendell! Very glad to have you join the program and I believe you are a great fit both as a player and as a student! Thank you for joining the Brotherhood! I very much look forward to pulling hard for you in Cameron Indoor!

Go Duke and Go Wendell!!

[kAzE]

I wonder if Brian Davis might be a good comparison.

I'll stick with Chris Carrawell as the closest comp, in terms of both his build and his game. I think Wendell can potentially become a lock down perimeter defender at Duke and in the pros. We got a good one!

Welcome to Duke!

[JasonEvans]

Moore seems like a perfect fit for the wing rotation next season and beyond. If he doesn't start, he will be the first player off the bench. What I especially like is that he will compliment the other wings, Jack White, Alex O'Connell, and Joey Baker. Those three can all shoot the ball from distance and are tall enough to match up with most off guards and small forwards in college. Moore is going to be the best athlete of the bunch. While his 3-point shot is not where it needs to be, I do believe he will get there in time. Over a large sample size, Moore was an accurate free throw shooter in the EYBL circuit over the summer. He shot better than 85% from the free throw line on 138 attempts. He's a great rebounder for his position, steals the ball, distributes, and finishes at the rim. He is a do-it-all kind of talent that has the potential to develop into a special player at Duke. I'm excited that he will get to live his dream of becoming a Blue Devil next season!

David is dead on target with the advice to look at his EYBL stats. (https://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/24357786) I think those are far more indicative of a player's performance than high school stats or especially USA Basketball stats. The EYBL is generally the best of the best high school players and AAU teams. Performing well there shows you what a player can do against other D1 prospects, something they rarely see in high school or USA Basketball games.

So, with that in mind, Wendell averaged better than 17 ppg in 22 EYBL games this past spring. As David notes, though his 3 point percentage was sorta low at 24%, he shot 85% from the FT line, which indicates he has really good shooting mechanics and can be taught to be a better threat from 3. He is a great slasher, shooting close to 60% on his 2 point shots. He grabbed 6.5 rebounds per game and nearly 4 assists per contest with impressive steals and blocked shots.

-Jason "We are going to love this kid... and as many have noted, I suspect we are going to get to love him for more than 1 year" Evans

[jv001]

Welcome Wendell. I'm looking forward to watching you grow in your game with the school you dreamed of playing for. ((redacted by moderators)) GoDuke!

[Billy Dat]

After last year, most of us would have liked some more Wendell, even with his firecracker Mom. Instead, we skip a year and get Wendell Moore. Good times all around, and love the continued commitments of prized in-state recruits.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Not a one and done player for sure- but has the tools to be a very good college player in a couple of years.

Apparently, Coach K expects him to be OAD

[JasonEvans]

Apparently, Coach K expects him to be OAD

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/latest-news/article219674915.html


“Coach K thinks he’s a one-and-done player,” (Moore's high school coach) said. “He thinks he has the ability to be a really great - and those were the words coming out of his mouth - a great pro. I can see that out of Wendell’s game. They want him to come in immediately and be the guy, kind of a similar role to what he has here at Cox Mill High School.

[sagegrouse]

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/latest-news/article219674915.html

From the Charlotte Observer article by Langston Wertz Jr.:


According to Moore and his high school coach, Jody Barbee, Duke doesn’t expect to have Moore on campus for very long.

“Coach K thinks he’s a one-and-done player,” Barbee said. “He thinks he has the ability to be a really great - and those were the words coming out of his mouth - a great pro. I can see that out of Wendell’s game. They want him to come in immediately and be the guy, kind of a similar role to what he has here at Cox Mill High School.

I wouldn't over-interpret a second-hand report.

[OldPhiKap]

From the Charlotte Observer article by Langston Wertz Jr.:

I wouldn't over-interpret a second-hand report.

Agreed. And if what is reported is true, I think all it means is that K sees Wendell as an eventual pro that can come in and make an impact immediately. That may, or may not, translate to a OAD.

[dukelifer]

Apparently, Coach K expects him to be OAD

What does he know ;) Let's see if he is willing to bet a pie.

[Troublemaker]

People in the position of making a sales pitch might emphasize different things than people not in that position.

[Indoor66]

I wouldn't over-interpret a second-hand report.

You have GOT to be kidding! 😂 This is DBR.

[kAzE]

I'm surprised there are so many people who think he's a multi-year player.

It's a possibility for sure, but I would still bet he leaves after 1 year.

If you project as a future NBA player, the best decision is to declare for the draft. Even if you're not quite NBA ready. Guys want to get in the league as quickly as possible and start the clock towards that 2nd contract. That's the hard truth. Wendell is physically built like an NBA player, and he checks a lot of the boxes you look for in a pro prospect.

It remains to be seen if his skill set is a good fit for the pros, but he clearly looks like a multi-positional defender who has some play making ability. His jump shot needs some work, but so do a lot of kids who have superior athletic ability and didn't need a jumper in high school to dominate.

Wendell sounds like a great kid who values education, but he'll always have a chance to come back to Duke to finish his degree. There's a decent chance he could stick around for a 2nd year for sure, but I believe he will go pro if he's projected to be drafted in the first round. There's also a chance he could just blow up like Justise Winslow, who had a VERY similar profile as an incoming freshman. The NBA certainly loves these long athletes who can defend 2 or 3 positions, especially on the perimeter. Even if he doesn't have a great freshman year, the tantalizing potential of a 6'6" wing with a 7-foot wingspan and good mobility is enough for several teams to fall in love with a prospect like Wendell.

[camion]

Apparently, Coach K expects him to be OAD

I believe 'Ol Roy would expect him to be a four year player. But then that's pretty much the same as OAD at Duke.


:p

[BD80]

I believe 'Ol Roy would expect him to be a four year player. But then that's pretty much the same as OAD at Duke. ...


They take the same number of classes ...

[CameronBlue]

You have GOT to be kidding! �� This is DBR.

So true. DBR: Setting our hair on fire just for practice.

[OldPhiKap]

So true. DBR: Setting our hair on first just for practice.

Let me be the first to say that if he is not a clear one and done -- it's over.

[ChillinDuke]

I'm surprised there are so many people who think he's a multi-year player.

It's a possibility for sure, but I would still bet he leaves after 1 year.

If you project as a future NBA player, the best decision is to declare for the draft. Even if you're not quite NBA ready. Guys want to get in the league as quickly as possible and start the clock towards that 2nd contract. That's the hard truth. Wendell is physically built like an NBA player, and he checks a lot of the boxes you look for in a pro prospect.

It remains to be seen if his skill set is a good fit for the pros, but he clearly looks like a multi-positional defender who has some play making ability. His jump shot needs some work, but so do a lot of kids who have superior athletic ability and didn't need a jumper in high school to dominate.

Wendell sounds like a great kid who values education, but he'll always have a chance to come back to Duke to finish his degree. There's a decent chance he could stick around for a 2nd year for sure, but I believe he will go pro if he's projected to be drafted in the first round. There's also a chance he could just blow up like Justise Winslow, who had a VERY similar profile as an incoming freshman. The NBA certainly loves these long athletes who can defend 2 or 3 positions, especially on the perimeter. Even if he doesn't have a great freshman year, the tantalizing potential of a 6'6" wing with a 7-foot wingspan and good mobility is enough for several teams to fall in love with a prospect like Wendell.

RSCI #22 is starting to get into fringey OAD territory. Justise was #13 which is somewhat significantly different from #22, at this stage in the evaluation period (in other words, before any games have been played). For comparison, in Justise's year (for ease because that's the webpage I'm on), Grayson Allen was #24 and played 4 years. Devin Booker was #23 and played one year. Dwayne Morgan was #22 and is still in school at Southern Utah (second college; after various on/off court issues), presumably with no NBA future having averaged 12.2 and 6.7 as a RS Jr last year. Tied at #20, Devin Robinson and James Blackmon each played 3 years of college, at Florida and Indiana, respectively.

Devin Booker was pretty clearly one of the best shooters in that class, so leaving made sense and might even have been predictable in the preseason. Wendell doesn't appear to have a premier skill that is NBA ready at this moment. Someday he may have one or even multiple. But it's hard to look at him right now and say, man he's going to do X for a long time. Even the people on the broadcast last night, whoever they were, claim he can do a little of everything - which to me sounds like a euphemistic way of describing a high schooler while a more direct NBA scout might say he's not elite at any one thing.

Any rational person understands that this could go either way, so going beyond the qualifiers I will just say that I would bet against you. I believe Wendell will play at Duke for more than a single season.

This is not the same scenario as Tre Jones, who I believe will be at Duke for only one season.

Regardless, very very happy we got Wendell for any amount of time. Seems like a Duke kid.

- Chillin

[dukelifer]

I'm surprised there are so many people who think he's a multi-year player.

It's a possibility for sure, but I would still bet he leaves after 1 year.

If you project as a future NBA player, the best decision is to declare for the draft. Even if you're not quite NBA ready. Guys want to get in the league as quickly as possible and start the clock towards that 2nd contract. That's the hard truth. Wendell is physically built like an NBA player, and he checks a lot of the boxes you look for in a pro prospect.

It remains to be seen if his skill set is a good fit for the pros, but he clearly looks like a multi-positional defender who has some play making ability. His jump shot needs some work, but so do a lot of kids who have superior athletic ability and didn't need a jumper in high school to dominate.

Wendell sounds like a great kid who values education, but he'll always have a chance to come back to Duke to finish his degree. There's a decent chance he could stick around for a 2nd year for sure, but I believe he will go pro if he's projected to be drafted in the first round. There's also a chance he could just blow up like Justise Winslow, who had a VERY similar profile as an incoming freshman. The NBA certainly loves these long athletes who can defend 2 or 3 positions, especially on the perimeter. Even if he doesn't have a great freshman year, the tantalizing potential of a 6'6" wing with a 7-foot wingspan and good mobility is enough for several teams to fall in love with a prospect like Wendell.

Certainly possible - but watching him on tape- he does not have the explosiveness I would expect at that size. He is also not known as one of the best shooters out of high school (like Rivers). So he would have to show a better shot or other-worldly defensive chops (like Winslow). Winslow was helped enormously by the fact that he played on a NC team. That is highly unlikely next year. Duke has had its share of OAD players (most, if not all, were near the top of their high school class). Wendell is in the 20's. We shall see- but I am not quite sure I see the wow factor that is needed at high height.

[kAzE]

RSCI #22 is starting to get into fringey OAD territory. Justise was #13 which is somewhat significantly different from #22, at this stage in the evaluation period (in other words, before any games have been played). For comparison, in Justise's year (for ease because that's the webpage I'm on), Grayson Allen was #24 and played 4 years. Devin Booker was #23 and played one year. Dwayne Morgan was #22 and is still in school at Southern Utah (second college; after various on/off court issues), presumably with no NBA future having averaged 12.2 and 6.7 as a RS Jr last year. Tied at #20, Devin Robinson and James Blackmon each played 3 years of college, at Florida and Indiana, respectively.

Devin Booker was pretty clearly one of the best shooters in that class, so leaving made sense and might even have been predictable in the preseason. Wendell doesn't appear to have a premier skill that is NBA ready at this moment. Someday he may have one or even multiple. But it's hard to look at him right now and say, man he's going to do X for a long time. Even the people on the broadcast last night, whoever they were, claim he can do a little of everything - which to me sounds like a euphemistic way of describing a high schooler while a more direct NBA scout might say he's not elite at any one thing.

Any rational person understands that this could go either way, so going beyond the qualifiers I will just say that I would bet against you. I believe Wendell will play at Duke for more than a single season.

This is not the same scenario as Tre Jones, who I believe will be at Duke for only one season.

Regardless, very very happy we got Wendell for any amount of time. Seems like a Duke kid.

- Chillin

I agree with just about all of your points. However, I am going with the qualifier of "if he's projected to be drafted in the first round." If that doesn't happen, then I would also bet he sticks around. But at the same time, I would also have bet on Frank Jackson and Gary Trent sticking around, so those 2 guys have kind of dampened my optimism with this type of prospect (fringe first-rounders).

But nevertheless, I guess we just have a slightly different evaluation of Wendell's current skills as a rising high school senior. He's still got a year left to improve before he arrives at Duke. Hopefully he develops a consistent jumper in the next year. The type of guys that we recruit often rise in the rankings over their senior year. Coach K has a knack for finding those guys.

[sagegrouse]

Agreed. And if what is reported is true, I think all it means is that K sees Wendell as an eventual pro that can come in and make an impact immediately. That may, or may not, translate to a OAD.

Yeah, that's how I interpreted it. K is NOT going to say "you-re not a one-and-done." (I.e., not as good as Okafor, Winslow, Tyus, Trent Jr., Bagley or the other Wendell. But he is saying, "You're going to play right away."

[JasonEvans]

RSCI #22 is starting to get into fringey OAD territory. Justise was #13 which is somewhat significantly different from #22, at this stage in the evaluation period (in other words, before any games have been played). For comparison, in Justise's year (for ease because that's the webpage I'm on), Grayson Allen was #24 and played 4 years. Devin Booker was #23 and played one year. Dwayne Morgan was #22 and is still in school at Southern Utah (second college; after various on/off court issues), presumably with no NBA future having averaged 12.2 and 6.7 as a RS Jr last year. Tied at #20, Devin Robinson and James Blackmon each played 3 years of college, at Florida and Indiana, respectively.

Looking at the 2017 class, guys in the late-teens to mid-20s in RSCI

#17 Lonnie Walker - 1st round
#18 Nick Richards - still at Kentucky
#19 Billy Preston - turned pro because of NCAA investigation, undrafted but signed a 2-way contract with the Cavs
#20 Kris Wilkes - still at UCLA
#21 Trae Young - 1st round/lottery
#22 Jaylen Hands - still at UCLA
#23 Quade Green -still at Kentucky
#24 MJ Walker -still at FSU
#25 Malik Williams - still at Louisville

Lets look at 2016 now

#17 Omari Spellman - played 2 years and then a 1st rounder
#18 Mustapha Heron - still in school (transferred from Auburn to St John)
#19 Tony Bradley - OAD buh bye
#20 Josh Langford - still at Mich St
#21 Rawle Alkins - played two years and then entered draft, undrafted but signed a 2-way with the Bulls
#22 Sacha Killeya-Jones - still in school (transferred from Kentucky to NC State)
#23 Andrew Jones - still at Texas (special case, battling leukemia)
#24 Kobi Simmons - OAD, undrafted, signed to a 2-way deal with the Cavs
#25 V.J. King - still at Louisville

So, from the past 2 years, less than a third of guys ranked around where Wendell is ranked end up turning pro in their first season. More than half are still in school for their junior seasons.

-Jason "we will see, but it seems likely he will be at Duke for multiple seasons (it is not even clear he will be a starter next season)" Evans

[ChillinDuke]

I agree with just about all of your points. However, I am going with the qualifier of "if he's projected to be drafted in the first round." If that doesn't happen, then I would also bet he sticks around. But at the same time, I would also have bet on Frank Jackson and Gary Trent sticking around, so those 2 guys have kind of dampened my optimism with this type of prospect (fringe first-rounders).

But nevertheless, I guess we just have a slightly different evaluation of Wendell's current skills as a rising high school senior. He's still got a year left to improve before he arrives at Duke. Hopefully he develops a consistent jumper in the next year. The type of guys that we recruit often rise in the rankings over their senior year. Coach K has a knack for finding those guys.

That's all fine and good. But by including the bolded qualifier, doesn't that essentially make your point universal (and not specific to Wendell). Said differently, if a squirrel were projected to be drafted in the first round, shouldn't that squirrel declare for the NBA draft? Basically, by adding that qualifier, I learn nothing about Wendell's current situation. My view is that his current situation does not appear to be OAD caliber, to my unprofessional eye. As further highlighted by Jason below...


Looking at the 2017 class, guys in the late-teens to mid-20s in RSCI

#17 Lonnie Walker - 1st round
#18 Nick Richards - still at Kentucky
#19 Billy Preston - turned pro because of NCAA investigation, undrafted but signed a 2-way contract with the Cavs
#20 Kris Wilkes - still at UCLA
#21 Trae Young - 1st round/lottery
#22 Jaylen Hands - still at UCLA
#23 Quade Green -still at Kentucky
#24 MJ Walker -still at FSU
#25 Malik Williams - still at Louisville

Lets look at 2016 now

#17 Omari Spellman - played 2 years and then a 1st rounder
#18 Mustapha Heron - still in school (transferred from Auburn to St John)
#19 Tony Bradley - OAD buh bye
#20 Josh Langford - still at Mich St
#21 Rawle Alkins - played two years and then entered draft, undrafted but signed a 2-way with the Bulls
#22 Sacha Killeya-Jones - still in school (transferred from Kentucky to NC State)
#23 Andrew Jones - still at Texas (special case, battling leukemia)
#24 Kobi Simmons - OAD, undrafted, signed to a 2-way deal with the Cavs
#25 V.J. King - still at Louisville

So, from the past 2 years, less than a third of guys ranked around where Wendell is ranked end up turning pro in their first season. More than half are still in school for their junior seasons.

-Jason "we will see, but it seems likely he will be at Duke for multiple seasons (it is not even clear he will be a starter next season)" Evans

Thanks, Jason. I was not willing to do that level of research this go round.

- Chillin

[Spanarkel]

Based on his high school stats, Wendell is comfortable putting up threes from the high school line: 5.6 attempts/gm with 32% accuracy.

That's not horrible, but he needs to extend his range. He was much more shy (and less accurate) shooting threes from the AAU line (1 ft longer) and from the FIBA line (~2.5 ft longer).

He seems to be a very good FT shooter (>80% in AAU and high school), so I think he can extend the range, given time.


The high school and AAU three point lines are the same.

[sagegrouse]

RSCI #22 is starting to get into fringey OAD territory. Justise was #13 which is somewhat significantly different from #22, at this stage in the evaluation period (in other words, before any games have been played). For comparison, in Justise's year (for ease because that's the webpage I'm on), Grayson Allen was #24 and played 4 years. Devin Booker was #23 and played one year. Dwayne Morgan was #22 and is still in school at Southern Utah (second college; after various on/off court issues), presumably with no NBA future having averaged 12.2 and 6.7 as a RS Jr last year. Tied at #20, Devin Robinson and James Blackmon each played 3 years of college, at Florida and Indiana, respectively.



When I try and flex my mathematical statistics muscles these days, I tend to get a brain cramp. That said, this is an ordinal ranking not cardinal scoring. Moreover, there is an extreme tail of the distribution of hoops players where one, two or a few players separate themselves from each other and the pack. Then there is a part of any bell-type curve where the ordinal differences are not truly significant. I dunno that there is necessarily much difference between #13 and #22, whereas there is almost certainly going to be a great difference between #1 and #10 (both nine places apart).

And, of course, trying to collapse an evaluation with so many variables into an ordinal ranking is a bit of a quandary: size, physical maturity, skill (hands, passing, ball-handling), shooting, athleticism (running and jumping), motor. Is it as of now (high school), in college, or in the NBA in a few years? Then there is character and leadership. Quantifying and merging all these provokes another brain cramp.

Kedsy has some data, and, since it's DBR, some opinions as well.

With respect to Justise Winslow -- #13 he was, but K has recently said that, by the end of the 2015 season, Justise was the best player on the team (which was the best team in the country).

[ChillinDuke]

When I try and flex my mathematical statistics muscles these days, I tend to get a brain cramp. That said, this is an ordinal ranking not cardinal scoring. Moreover, there is an extreme tail of the distribution of hoops players where one, two or a few players separate themselves from each other and the pack. Then there is a part of any bell-type curve where the ordinal differences are not truly significant. I dunno that there is necessarily much difference between #13 and #22, whereas there is almost certainly going to be a great difference between #1 and #10 (both nine places apart).

And, of course, trying to collapse an evaluation with so many variables into an ordinal ranking is a bit of a quandary: size, physical maturity, skill (hands, passing, ball-handling), shooting, athleticism (running and jumping), motor. Is it as of now (high school), in college, or in the NBA in a few years? Then there is character and leadership. Quantifying and merging all these provokes another brain cramp.

Kedsy has some data, and, since it's DBR, some opinions as well.

With respect to Justise Winslow -- #13 he was, but K has recently said that, by the end of the 2015 season, Justise was the best player on the team (which was the best team in the country).

Yes, to be sure. But for the same reason #1 and #10 are vastly separated, I'd still argue that #13 and #22 are somewhat separated. Your point holds, but I'm not sure you get into the beef of the bell curve by #13.

Oh, I'm well versed in Kedsy Theory, and I'm a believer - insofar as it relates to predicting rotation players at Duke based on RSCI ranking. That said, Jason just showed us two years worth of data that tend to skew #22 being fringey OAD territory.

Justise absolutely was a huge player by the end of 2015. But you can't compare a preseason player ranking to a postseason player - that ain't fair. Entering the 2015 season, I think most thought Justise had a chance to go pro but was maybe a coin flip. He clearly outplayed expectations based on his ranking, at least mine. At this time, I would say that Wendell has a chance to go pro as a OAD, but (perhaps obviously based on his ranking) less of a chance than Justise did.

Lucky for Wendell (and us), he gets to play games to improve those chances.

- Chillin

[kAzE]

There's potentially another unique factor that may influence class of 2019 kids on their NBA draft decisions, and that's the looming end of the OAD era.

There's still not 100% clarity on when exactly it will happen, but most believe the class of 2020 will be the last high school class required to be one year removed from high school before entering the draft.

Thus, logic would dictate that players in the 2019 class may be incentivized to go pro if they can, in order to avoid the "double class" that could include the best players from both 2020 and 2021.

This is speculation of course, but when it does happen, that particular draft will be much more stacked than the average draft, and thus much harder for potential entrants to crack the first round.

On the other hand, if the rule is changed THIS year (meaning the 2019 draft would be the double draft class), then it would be beneficial for guys like Wendell to stick around for his sophomore year, and enter the draft in the talent-depleted 2020 draft.

[Highlander]

I thought I remembered there was a NC recruit with a connection to a former Duke basketball player - thinking Cwell or Ricky Price potentially. Is that Moore, or another player? Or did I just imagine that connection?

[Kedsy]

Kedsy has some data, and, since it's DBR, some opinions as well.


Oh, I'm well versed in Kedsy Theory, and I'm a believer - insofar as it relates to predicting rotation players at Duke based on RSCI ranking. That said, Jason just showed us two years worth of data that tend to skew #22 being fringey OAD territory.

I grant all the caveats that sagegrouse rightly points out. I also recognize Jason's data for mid-teens to mid-20s generally. I would argue, however, that the fact that, e.g., #20 Trae Young was able to go OAD in a situation where he had the best recruiting ranking of anybody on his college team, and was allowed to play 35+ mpg with a 37%+ usage rate, would have little predictive value at Duke, where none of those things would have been true. It's quite possible that at Duke such a ranking wouldn't be "fringey OAD territory" at all.

So here's the data (using RSCI rankings) for Duke recruits since Coach K started playing the OAD game (since Kyrie chose Duke during the 2010 recruiting season):

TOP TEN OAD
-------------
Marvin Bagley #1 in 2017
Jahlil Okafor #1 in 2014
Kyrie Irving #2 in 2010
Austin Rivers #2 in 2011
Harry Giles #2 in 2016
Jabari Parker #3 in 2013
Jayson Tatum #3 in 2016
Brandon Ingram #4 in 2015
Trevon Duval #5 in 2017
Tyus Jones #7 in 2014
Wendell Carter #7 in 2017

TOP TEN NOT OAD
------------------
none


RANKED 11 to 19 OAD
---------------------
Justise Winslow #13 in 2014
Frank Jackson #14 in 2016
Gary Trent #14 in 2017

RANKED 11 to 19 NOT OAD
--------------------------
Marques Bolden #11 in 2016
Rasheed Sulaimon #12 in 2012
Derryck Thortnon #13 in 2015
Chase Jeter #14 in 2015


RANKED 20 to 35 OAD
---------------------
none

RANKED 20 to 35 2AD
---------------------
Luke Kennard #21 in 2016

RANKED 20 to 35 3AD
---------------------
Semi Ojeleye #32 2013 (but almost certainly would have played 4 years if he'd stayed at Duke)

RANKED 20 to 35, 4 YEAR PLAYERS
---------------------------------
Amile Jefferson #21 in 2012
Grayson Allen #24 in 2014
Michael Gbinije #28 in 2011
Quinn Cook #31 in 2011
Josh Hairston #32 in 2010
Matt Jones #34 in 2014
Javin DeLaurier #35 in 2016 (has only been here 3 years, but will almost certainly stay for his fourth year)


So, relatively small sample, but it says top ten guys have gone after one year, guys in the teens have gone about half the time (it will be exactly half the time if #13 Tre Jones decides to bolt, as expected, after his freshman year), and guys in the 20s and 30s overwhelmingly stay four years.

Now, like I say it's a small sample, so Wendell Moore could be a trend-breaker and leave after a year. Or he could follow Luke Kennard and leave after two. Or he could follow the trend and stay until graduation. No way to know at this point.

It's also perfectly plausible that Wendell (who is currently ranked #22 in the summer RSCI) could move up a few spots by the end of the year and put himself into the 50/50 category.

It's also worth noting that in the time period since 2010, Duke hasn't gotten any recruits in the 15 to 20 range, so predicting whether the 15 to 20 recruits' behavior would be similar to 10 to 15 or instead similar to 20 to 25 (a category in which we only had three players in the time frame and one out of three left after two years) would be pure extrapolation. And of course the tighter you slice these numbers up, the fewer data points we have, meaning any potential conclusions are much less compelling in smaller ranges.

In other words, I'll be surprised if Wendell Moore is OAD, but as the parent of a teenager, the behavior of such individuals often surprises me.

[Troublemaker]

The high school and AAU three point lines are the same.

No, for the benefit of college coaches who are scouting, the AAU summer circuit is mostly played using the college 3-pt line (1 foot longer than high school.)

For example, just look at Wendell's highlights from the summer. You'll notice the prevalence of the double line out there - one is the original high school line (as these events usually take place in high school gyms), and one is the college line painted on for the summer circuit.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLPnwOAk6D0

[sagegrouse]

I grant all the caveats that sagegrouse rightly points out. I also recognize Jason's data for mid-teens to mid-20s generally. I would argue, however, that the fact that, e.g., #20 Trae Young was able to go OAD in a situation where he had the best recruiting ranking of anybody on his college team, and was allowed to play 35+ mpg with a 37%+ usage rate, would have little predictive value at Duke, where none of those things would have been true. It's quite possible that at Duke such a ranking wouldn't be "fringey OAD territory" at all.

So here's the data (using RSCI rankings) for Duke recruits since Coach K started playing the OAD game (since Kyrie chose Duke during the 2010 recruiting season):

TOP TEN OAD
-------------
Marvin Bagley #1 in 2017
Jahlil Okafor #1 in 2014
Kyrie Irving #2 in 2010
Austin Rivers #2 in 2011
Harry Giles #2 in 2016
Jabari Parker #3 in 2013
Jayson Tatum #3 in 2016
Brandon Ingram #4 in 2015
Trevon Duval #5 in 2017
Tyus Jones #7 in 2014
Wendell Carter #7 in 2017

TOP TEN NOT OAD
------------------
none


I would also suggest a behavioral explanation for the top ten. Those guys show up in college with one foot out the door, and it is very difficult for them to re-adjust expectations. That said, the only player I would argue should have stayed is Trevon Duval -- who is going to have to slog his way through the G League for a couple of years, whereas a year to work on his shooting (assuming it is fixable -- which I think it is) and to be a featured player would have gotten him guaranteed gold from the gitgo (I love alliteration).

On Tyus, he is still pretty thin for the NBA. I think he would have benefited from returning, but I am not sure -- and he has pay and guarantees worth $6.5 million through this season. The test will be whether he gets a new contract after this season.

BTW, thanks, Kedsy, for weighing in.

[Spanarkel]

No, for the benefit of college coaches who are scouting, the AAU summer circuit is mostly played using the college 3-pt line (1 foot longer than high school.)

For example, just look at Wendell's highlights from the summer. You'll notice the prevalence of the double line out there - one is the original high school line (as these events usually take place in high school gyms), and one is the college line painted on for the summer circuit.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLPnwOAk6D0

We may both be right, as it appears that only the NikeEYBL league uses the college three point line, while the Adidas(Matthew Hurt's circuit)and the UnderArmour AAU leagues use the high school three point line.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i84RLIyoVU0

[Newton_14]

From the Charlotte Observer article by Langston Wertz Jr.:



I wouldn't over-interpret a second-hand report.

Dang. Everything I read last night was about how Wendell would be a multi-year player for our Blue Devils, so disappointing to hear he is likely to be yet another in the long list of OAD players. Still very happy to get him of course and if he can be a 1st Rd draft pick in the 2020 Draft then good for him. Hopefully if he isn't projected to be a 1st rounder he will stay and play that Sophomore season as a Blue Devil, and hopefully Tre Jones will be his teammate for those seasons as well.

Good to finally land a 2019 recruit! We need to add a couple more guys to the class to shore up the roster!

Go Duke!

[JNort]

I've stayed off this thread, other than to pop in from time to time, because I have sort of dreaded the inevitable transitions...from OAD to more normal development....and from K to, well, whoever, whenever. I really do not like the OAD, never have, but we were potentially facing down a very rough transition. This development might help smooth that out.

How's that? It's how we've been recruiting...

[JNort]

Wendell sounds like the perfect recruit - just under the level of a OAD so you’ll have him for more than a year, yet talented enough to make an impact even in his first year. We’ll need scorers around him but he’ll be an excellent foundational piece of the team moving forward. And he loves Duke!

Now how that works or our rosters would look much different.

[archand1]

Luckily, Cox Mill is down the road from me. I watched him last season playing alongside Leaky Black. I was impressed with him. It was a close, chippy game. Leaky had to feed off the emotion and threw down some thunderous dunks to get going. When I looked up, I remember pointing out to my friend that I couldn't believe Moore had 40 points.

He looked composed when a team they should have put away took them to OT. He played tough defense, along with a momentum saving block near the end. He quietly filled the stat sheet and did not get rattled at all through the game. It will be interesting to watch him this season as the true number 1 option on that team.

[moonpie23]

Welcome to the family !!!!!

[elvis14]

Dang. Everything I read last night was about how Wendell would be a multi-year player for our Blue Devils, so disappointing to hear he is likely to be yet another in the long list of OAD players. Still very happy to get him of course and if he can be a 1st Rd draft pick in the 2020 Draft then good for him. Hopefully if he isn't projected to be a 1st rounder he will stay and play that Sophomore season as a Blue Devil, and hopefully Tre Jones will be his teammate for those seasons as well.

Good to finally land a 2019 recruit! We need to add a couple more guys to the class to shore up the roster!

Go Duke!

I have to admit that I too was really happy to hear that we landed a good recruit that I didn't think was taking the OAD route. As I read this thread this morning, I was so disappointed when I heard that Coach K considers WM to a OAD player. Happy to have him, of course, but really wish he was coming in looking to stay 2 or 3 years (since he's not a top 10 or even top 20 recruit).

[DavidBenAkiva]

I have to admit that I too was really happy to hear that we landed a good recruit that I didn't think was taking the OAD route. As I read this thread this morning, I was so disappointed when I heard that Coach K considers WM to a OAD player. Happy to have him, of course, but really wish he was coming in looking to stay 2 or 3 years (since he's not a top 10 or even top 20 recruit).

A couple things to keep in mind:

We have not heard a direct quote from Coach K or the coaching staff where they suggest Wendell (or any recruit, for that matter) will be a one-and-done. They wouldn't say it to the public, anyway. Things happen. Injuries occur. A player isn't as developed as he might have appeared in high school. Conversely, a player may jump out of nowhere to become a lottery pick. There were a couple this year in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at UK and most notably Trae Young from Oklahoma. Whatever we hear is second or third hand through the recruit, his parents, his coaches, his friends and supporters. It is all speculation right now.

Another factor in all of this is the impending end of the one-and-done era. The NBA has let it be known that 2021 or 2022 will be the first year that high schoolers will be allowed back into the NBA Draft. That first draft with high schoolers is going to be absolutely stacked with talent. There will be the best high school kids and the last of the one-and-done players. I doubt more than 1 or 2 upperclassmen are even in the first round that year. While we may not see multiple once-in-a-generation talents like the 2003 draft, it will be so deep. Second round guys might be fringe lottery picks in other years. For that reason, anyone that has NBA dreams in the Class of 2019 and 2020 is going to face a tough, tough decision. Should they go to the draft ASAP, before the end of one-and-done, and risk sliding? Should they wait an additional two years to see if they can get into a weaker draft class? I do not envy those kids and the decision they will have to make. They will have literally millions of dollars on the line.

[Troublemaker]

There's potentially another unique factor that may influence class of 2019 kids on their NBA draft decisions, and that's the looming end of the OAD era.

There's still not 100% clarity on when exactly it will happen, but most believe the class of 2020 will be the last high school class required to be one year removed from high school before entering the draft.

Thus, logic would dictate that players in the 2019 class may be incentivized to go pro if they can, in order to avoid the "double class" that could include the best players from both 2020 and 2021.



Another factor in all of this is the impending end of the one-and-done era. The NBA has let it be known that 2021 or 2022 will be the first year that high schoolers will be allowed back into the NBA Draft. That first draft with high schoolers is going to be absolutely stacked with talent. There will be the best high school kids and the last of the one-and-done players. I doubt more than 1 or 2 upperclassmen are even in the first round that year. While we may not see multiple once-in-a-generation talents like the 2003 draft, it will be so deep. Second round guys might be fringe lottery picks in other years. For that reason, anyone that has NBA dreams in the Class of 2019 and 2020 is going to face a tough, tough decision. Should they go to the draft ASAP, before the end of one-and-done, and risk sliding? Should they wait an additional two years to see if they can get into a weaker draft class? I do not envy those kids and the decision they will have to make. They will have literally millions of dollars on the line.

To be precise, the NBA's memo to the league teams (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23804458/memo-states-nba-draft-eligibility-shift-21) only says that those are the earliest dates possible. Quote from my link (a Zach Lowe article on ESPN):

The memo says that, as of now, the league does not expect changes in draft eligibility rules to take place at any time "prior to the 2021 or 2022 draft."

If you guys watched the pre-Canada presser from Coach K, someone who might have good sources, he expressed skepticism that the OAD is going away anytime soon. I've been on board with that view for awhile now.


We may both be right, as it appears that only the NikeEYBL league uses the college three point line, while the Adidas(Matthew Hurt's circuit)and the UnderArmour AAU leagues use the high school three point line.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i84RLIyoVU0

That would make us both wrong, actually, but I'm okay with your phrasing of it :-)

[weezie]

Welcome to Wendell. I love the idea of another slashing sashayer making his way to the basket.

[DukeFanSince1990]

Neat

8710

[BandAlum83]

I love it everytime I see someone do this. It never gets old.

I love how his family at the table all did the reveal with him. They showed the Duke shirts they had on underneath!