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Reilly
10-07-2018, 08:45 PM
#18 in the SRS ... and our D is 2x as good as our O ... https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

What else is out there?

Bob Green
10-08-2018, 06:15 AM
Duke is #35 in Sagarin ratings:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Our remaining opponents:

Georgia Tech - 41
Virginia - 58
Pitt - 75
Miami - 19
North Carolina - 98
Clemson - 3
Wake Forest - 76

Bob Green
10-08-2018, 06:22 AM
Duke is #33 in ESPN FPI:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

Our remaining opponents:

Georgia Tech - 38
Virginia - 58
Pitt - 72
Miami - 12
North Carolina - 81
Clemson - 4
Wake Forest - 68

Bob Green
10-08-2018, 06:29 AM
Duke is #23 in the Massey Composite:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Our remaining opponents:

Georgia Tech - 63
Virginia - 61
Pitt - 73
Miami - 18
North Carolina - 102
Clemson - 3
Wake Forest - 68

HereBeforeCoachK
10-08-2018, 06:36 AM
Seems like all of them are pointing at a 5-2 finish from here...

Reilly
10-08-2018, 07:52 AM
@ #66 GT (Duke by 7 points after home field 3 given)
v #51 Virginia (Duke by 11)
@ #78 Pitt (Duke by 9)
@ #26 Mia (pick 'em)
v #120 UNC (Duke by 27)
@ #5 Clemson (Clemson by 11)
v #67 WFU (Duke by 13)

7 straight weeks of football ... 3 home/4 road ... all ACC games ... 5/7 against old-time ACC opponents (GT, UVa, UNC, Clemson, WFU) (including GT b/c we've played them every year since 1933, I believe)

7-0: 11-1
6-1: 10-2
5-2: 9-3
4-3: 8-4
3-4: 7-5
2-5: 6-6
1-6: 5-7
0-7: 4-8

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

budwom
10-08-2018, 12:55 PM
Data is awful meager for dork polls to mean much at this point...GT scored 66 vs a Power 5 opponent, albeit a crappy Lville team...I suspect they're a bit better than #66...

Reilly
10-08-2018, 02:27 PM
... GT scored 66 vs a Power 5 opponent ... I suspect they're a bit better than #66 ...

Probably not much better -- maybe low 50s, given their current resume. It's the Jay Bilas NCAA selection question: who would you move them in front of? There are 47 teams with 4-2 or better records right now. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

edit -- just saw that USA Today puts GT at #74: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/10/08/re-rank-race-behind-alabama-crowded-ohio-state-notre-dame/1558936002/

Reilly
10-08-2018, 02:32 PM
Link: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/10/08/re-rank-race-behind-alabama-crowded-ohio-state-notre-dame/1558936002/

budwom
10-08-2018, 02:42 PM
Probably not much better -- maybe low 50s, given their current resume. It's the Jay Bilas NCAA selection question: who would you move them in front of? There are 47 teams with 4-2 or better records right now. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

edit -- just saw that USA Today puts GT at #74: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/10/08/re-rank-race-behind-alabama-crowded-ohio-state-notre-dame/1558936002/

yeah, but a lot of 4-2 records this time of year are flimsy...I like advanced metrics just fine, but it takes more data points for them to make a lot of sense.
I'm pretty certain Duke won't be a 27 pt favorite over unc, nor 11 point favorite over uva, nor 9 over pitt. Let's see how this week works out...betting line of GT -1 seems a lot more reasonable than Duke by 7, as much as I'd love to see that.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-08-2018, 02:52 PM
Probably not much better -- maybe low 50s, given their current resume. It's the Jay Bilas NCAA selection question: who would you move them in front of? There are 47 teams with 4-2 or better records right now. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

edit -- just saw that USA Today puts GT at #74: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/10/08/re-rank-race-behind-alabama-crowded-ohio-state-notre-dame/1558936002/

The way GT is playing right now....the last few weeks....they are much better than 74.

BandAlum83
10-08-2018, 03:25 PM
Duke is #23 in the Massey Composite:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Our remaining opponents:

Georgia Tech - 63
Virginia - 61
Pitt - 73
Miami - 18
North Carolina - 102
Clemson - 3
Wake Forest - 68

<sigh>

I guess I would be OK with a 9-3 season.

OldPhiKap
10-08-2018, 04:25 PM
yeah, but a lot of 4-2 records this time of year are flimsy...I like advanced metrics just fine, but it takes more data points for them to make a lot of sense.
I'm pretty certain Duke won't be a 27 pt favorite over unc, nor 11 point favorite over uva, nor 9 over pitt. Let's see how this week works out...betting line of GT -1 seems a lot more reasonable than Duke by 7, as much as I'd love to see that.

Frankly, GT only being a point or two favorite at home over us seems generous in our favor. JMHO. I would have thought the -3.5 opener in favor of GT would have widened, not shrank.

Reilly
10-08-2018, 04:50 PM
yeah, but a lot of 4-2 records this time of year are flimsy...I like advanced metrics just fine, but it takes more data points for them to make a lot of sense.
I'm pretty certain Duke won't be a 27 pt favorite over unc, nor 11 point favorite over uva, nor 9 over pitt. Let's see how this week works out...betting line of GT -1 seems a lot more reasonable than Duke by 7, as much as I'd love to see that.

#1 -- the SRS is not advanced metrics; it's simple. Those high point differential numbers will calm down/correct ... unless our D really is lights out.

#2 -- the USA Today ranking of GT as #74 is not metrics at all if I'm understanding it correctly; it's Paul Myerberg's ranking (he's a v. good CFB journalist, I've found). Again, which 4-2 teams are you placing GT above? Any Power 5 teams (Miss St; Auburn; TxA&M; Syracuse; Ole Miss; Ok St; Stanford; BC; Indiana; Oregon; Baylor)? There are 7 gang of five 4-win teams that you might move them ahead of, which brings them into the 50s. Sagarin has them in the 40s(?).

GT may beat us, no doubt. And the line is probably right. That said, GT ain't elite right now based on its resume to date.

budwom
10-08-2018, 05:06 PM
^ elite? Who said elite? I sure didn't. I'm just saying that if you really believe we're thirty something and they're #74, you are evidently expecting a far, far easier game than I am.
Sagarin has Duke at 35 I believe, GT at 41, that seems far more reasonable to me...

duke2x
10-08-2018, 11:23 PM
Data is awful meager for dork polls to mean much at this point...GT scored 66 vs a Power 5 opponent, albeit a crappy Lville team...I suspect they're a bit better than #66...

GT is an computer poll enigma right now. The best win is over Louisville (#105). They lost to Pitt (#78) and USF (#52). They don't throw the ball well or often like VT. I'll be happy with a 1 point win. We almost never play well down there, and this game is almost a must win for a bowl (with VT, Miami, and UGA as alternatives).

budwom
10-09-2018, 08:04 AM
GT is an computer poll enigma right now. The best win is over Louisville (#105). They lost to Pitt (#78) and USF (#52). They don't throw the ball well or often like VT. I'll be happy with a 1 point win. We almost never play well down there, and this game is almost a must win for a bowl (with VT, Miami, and UGA as alternatives).

I can't argue with that, an enigma they are...I'm just loathe to accept any poll or data which has them at #74 and Duke at #thirtysomething right now...point spread seems a better indication of relative merits. (As well as Sagarin).

HereBeforeCoachK
10-09-2018, 08:15 AM
I can't argue with that, an enigma they are...I'm just loathe to accept any poll or data which has them at #74 and Duke at #thirtysomething right now...point spread seems a better indication of relative merits. (As well as Sagarin).

This is a problem with any metric that doesn't weight recent games more heavily......because they've been a dad gum ramblin wreck for sure the last two weeks....129 points!

Reilly
10-14-2018, 03:19 PM
#34 in AP poll: https://www.collegefootball.ap.org/poll

#17 in the SRS: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

OldPhiKap
10-14-2018, 07:46 PM
OPK dork poll:

9 of top 17 threads on DBaskebtallR are about Duke football.

Still amazed how far Cut has brought this program in terms of performance and interest.

MChambers
10-14-2018, 08:00 PM
OPK dork poll:

9 of top 17 threads on DBaskebtallR are about Duke football.

Still amazed how far Cut has brought this program in terms of performance and interest.

Football school!

Personally, I wish Duke didn’t field a football team, mostly because of CTE, but that’s just me.

arnie
10-14-2018, 08:49 PM
Football school!

Personally, I wish Duke didn’t field a football team, mostly because of CTE, but that’s just me.

You must not be aware that Fedora has proclaimed hard nose, tackle football mixed in with some CTE is essential for a strong military and strong America.😀

OldPhiKap
10-14-2018, 10:02 PM
34 in AP:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ap-top-25-poll-notre-dame-in-top-four-lsu-enters-top-five-in-latest-college-football-rankings/

JasonEvans
10-15-2018, 08:35 AM
As I mentioned elsewhere, Duke is #18 in the Massey Composite (https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm). Massey takes rankings from dozens of computer models to come up with his composite.

Reilly
10-15-2018, 04:55 PM
As I mentioned elsewhere, Duke is #18 in the Massey Composite (https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm). Massey takes rankings from dozens of computer models to come up with his composite.

The computers love us way more than the humans (AP) do.

We're #17 in the SRS and #34 in the AP, for a difference of 17 spots.

Only Iowa State (#20 SRS; no rating AP of 40 teams) and Army (#22 SRS; no rating AP of 40 teams) had a bigger spread where the humans did not love them as much as the computers did.

App State is #16 in the SRS and #29 in the AP, so undervalued by humans relative to computers by 13 spots ... but not as greatly undervalued as Duke's 17.

NCSU, on the other hand, is #24 per the SRS/computer but #16 in the AP, so the humans are giving them more love than the computers suggest is reasonable (which must be disorienting for Pack fans to get more respect than perhaps deserved).

Bob Green
10-21-2018, 08:16 AM
Duke falls from 25 to 35 in this morning's Sagarin ratings:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/


Remaining opponents:

Pittsburgh - 76
Miami - 20
Carolina - 90
Clemson -2
Wake Forest - 86

Reilly
10-21-2018, 01:00 PM
Duke dropped from #17 to #31 in the SRS:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

Reilly
10-23-2018, 05:44 AM
Duke is #43 in the CBS 129: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/cbs/129

Reilly
10-28-2018, 10:59 AM
Duke now #40 in the SRS: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

Miami is #33 and 1+ point better than Duke on a neutral field.

Bob Green
11-04-2018, 08:48 AM
Duke is #37 in the Sagarin ratings:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Carolina - #92
Clemson - #2
Wake Forest - #82

HereBeforeCoachK
11-04-2018, 01:20 PM
Duke is #37 in the Sagarin ratings:


UVa, VT and Pitt all in the 45-57 area below Duke.......sheesh...

devildeac
11-04-2018, 01:22 PM
UVa, VT and Pitt all in the 45-57 area below Duke...sheesh...

Yep. What coulda been, wasn't.

:(

Reilly
11-04-2018, 06:03 PM
Duke at 36 in SRS: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

VT at 78.

And for comparison's sake, Duke's best team under Cut finished #31 in the SRS (2013), and last year's team finished #37 (second best under Cut). We're enjoying (or not) one of the best teams of the past 11 years. Beat Carolina.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-04-2018, 07:43 PM
Duke at 36 in SRS: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

VT at 78.

And for comparison's sake, Duke's best team under Cut finished #31 in the SRS (2013), and last year's team finished #37 (second best under Cut). We're enjoying (or not) one of the best teams of the past 11 years. Beat Carolina.

This team is nowhere near as good as 2013 IMO.......injuries are a part of that of course....

Acymetric
11-04-2018, 07:59 PM
This team is nowhere near as good as 2013 IMO...injuries are a part of that of course...

Agreed. It is worth noting that the "Dork" polls are not nearly as reliable in football as they are in basketball for ranking teams...just not enough games played between the schools.

Think about how many games before KenPom's stats are "connected" during the basketball season...I think it is more than 12.

Reilly
11-04-2018, 08:18 PM
This team is nowhere near as good as 2013 IMO...injuries are a part of that of course...

2018 Duke team (currently #37 in SRS)
- won by 42 points over an I-AA team (NCCU)
- won by 20 points over the #31 team (Army)
- won by 14 points @ the #33 team (NU)
- won by 14 points @ the #61 team (GT)
- won by 13 points @ the #57 team (Baylor)
- won by 8 points @ the #42 team (Miami)

- lost by 9 points @ the #53 team (Pitt)
- lost by 14 points to the #46 team (UVA)
- lost by 17 points to the#78 team (VT)


2013 Duke team (finished #31 in SRS; through 9 games (using year-end ratings))
- won by 45 points over an I-AA team (NCCU)
- won by 28 points over the #53 team (Navy)
- won by 18 points over the #92 team (NCSU)
- won by 14 points @ the #96 team (Memphis)
- won by 13 points @ the #90 team (UVa)
- won by 7 points over the #91 team (Troy)
- won by 3 points over the #39 team (VT)

- lost by 3 points to the #55 team (Pitt)
- lost by 24 points to #35 team (GT)

Through this point, the 2013 squad was 7-2 compared to 2018's 6-3, but 2013 had feasted, to this point, on lesser competition (4 teams in the 90s).

HereBeforeCoachK
11-04-2018, 09:42 PM
2018 Duke team (currently #37 in SRS)
- won by 42 points over an I-AA team (NCCU)
- won by 20 points over the #31 team (Army)
- won by 14 points @ the #33 team (NU)
- won by 14 points @ the #61 team (GT)
- won by 13 points @ the #57 team (Baylor)
- won by 8 points @ the #42 team (Miami)

- lost by 9 points @ the #53 team (Pitt)
- lost by 14 points to the #46 team (UVA)
- lost by 17 points to the#78 team (VT)


2013 Duke team (finished #31 in SRS; through 9 games (using year-end ratings))
- won by 45 points over an I-AA team (NCCU)
- won by 28 points over the #53 team (Navy)
- won by 18 points over the #92 team (NCSU)
- won by 14 points @ the #96 team (Memphis)
- won by 13 points @ the #90 team (UVa)
- won by 7 points over the #91 team (Troy)
- won by 3 points over the #39 team (VT)

- lost by 3 points to the #55 team (Pitt)
- lost by 24 points to #35 team (GT)

Through this point, the 2013 squad was 7-2 compared to 2018's 6-3, but 2013 had feasted, to this point, on lesser competition (4 teams in the 90s).

You need to consider streaks at this point in the season. Frankly, I don't really care what Sagarin says. I don't think this team is in the same class with 2013, not in a week ten to week ten comparison. 2013, at this point, Duke was 5 games into an 8 game winning streak. They were building a Coastal Championship. Duke 2018 in week ten has lost two of three and three of five, and is not in the Coastal discussion. 2013 team was on a big roll at this point. This team is not, not yet.

Now that could change...this team could get healthier, start catching passes, figure out how to pair the Pittsburgh game O with the Miami game D..and end the season winning three of four and finish 8-4, and win a bowl game. At that point Sagarin would have this team ahead of 2013 which is suspect. The 2013 team was one play away from a NYE bowl win and a top ten national ranking. I submit Sagarin had 2013 way too low.

Reilly
11-04-2018, 10:46 PM
... The 2013 team was one play away from ... a top ten national ranking ...

Here's the AP final top 10:

17 Final 1 Florida State (14-0) 1 ACC (Atlantic)
17 Final 2 Auburn (12-2) 2 SEC (West)
17 Final 3 Michigan State (13-1) 4 1 Big Ten (Legends)
17 Final 4 South Carolina (11-2) 8 4 SEC (East)
17 Final 5 Missouri (12-2) 9 4 SEC (East)
17 Final 6 Oklahoma (11-2) 11 5 Big 12
17 Final 7 Alabama (11-2) 3 4 SEC (West)
17 Final 8 Clemson (11-2) 12 4 ACC (Atlantic)
17 Final 9 Oregon (11-2) 10 1 Pac-12 (North)
17 Final 10 UCF (12-1) 15 5 American

Which team would an 11-3 Duke team have supplanted?

In the Final AP poll (top 25), the most any team moved up in the final poll was 5 slots over the week before, and we were #22 going into NYE, so presumably would've been #17 had we equaled the largest move in the final poll. I don't think we would have vaulted 12 slots when the largest mover was 5. The largest move in the whole year (13 slots) did occur after a win over TXAM, when Auburn moved from #24 to #11 in October, but that was earlier when it seems more likely for there to be more movement. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2013-polls.html

2013 was a special season. Magical momentum. That team was better than this team, comparing its final SRS to this team's SRS. That said, it's resume is not that much better, to date. And I do not believe 2013 would have finished in the AP top 10 if it had finished off Johnny Football.

Bob Green
11-11-2018, 10:36 AM
Duke falls four places to #41 in updated Sagarin ratings:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Clemson - #2
Wake Forest - #73

OldPhiKap
11-11-2018, 11:06 AM
Duke falls four places to #41 in updated Sagarin ratings:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Clemson - #2
Wake Forest - #73

Playing Carolina lowered our strength of schedule. Bwahaha.

I’ll take that small dip for the pleasure of quantifying how bad Carolina really is this year.

hallcity
11-11-2018, 11:28 AM
Football school!

Personally, I wish Duke didn’t field a football team, mostly because of CTE, but that’s just me.

I feel a little guilty watching football but I do enjoy watching it.

devildeac
11-11-2018, 12:49 PM
Playing Carolina lowered our strength of schedule. Bwahaha.

I’ll take that small dip for the pleasure of quantifying how bad Carolina really is this year.

Yep. As Reilly (IIRC) said upthread, "Ding, ding, ding..."