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Reilly
09-09-2018, 08:17 PM
What this thread is *not* -- it's not a bowl vigil. I say one of those gets started if/when win #4 arrives.

Projection #1: 9/9 ... Duke to Annapolis on 12/31 against Navy
https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Projection #2: 9/9 ... Duke to Charlotte on 12/29 against SoCar
Projection #3: 9/9 ... Duke to El Paso on 12/31 against Utah
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24626002/college-football-bowl-projections-week-2

OldPhiKap
09-09-2018, 08:44 PM
What this thread is *not* -- it's not a bowl vigil. I say one of those gets started if/when win #4 arrives.

Projection #1: 9/9 ... Duke to Annapolis on 12/31 against Navy
https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Projection #2: 9/9 ... Duke to Charlotte on 12/29 against SoCar
Projection #3: 9/9 ... Duke to El Paso on 12/31 against Utah
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24626002/college-football-bowl-projections-week-2

I would say that a vigil is premature unless and until we get to five. Last season was brutal sitting at four.

While way too early, I’d do the El Paso trip again in a heartbeat. Charlotte was brutally cold.

And necessary disclaimer — we are still four wins away from worrying too seriously about this. But having said that, fans of big programs start plannng early. Acting like I expect to be there . . . .

Reilly
09-09-2018, 09:14 PM
I would say that a vigil is premature unless and until we get to five. Last season was brutal sitting at four.

While way too early, I’d do the El Paso trip again in a heartbeat. Charlotte was brutally cold.

And necessary disclaimer — we are still four wins away from worrying too seriously about this. But having said that, fans of big programs start plannng early. Acting like I expect to be there . . . .

This is not about us. This is not about our expectations. This is about what others are saying. It's OK. There is no reverse jinx or apology needed. It's just a collection point for random internet typings.

budwom
09-10-2018, 08:31 AM
Sure would be nice to grab a win at Baylor giving us presumably four after NCCU...gives us time to get Jones back for the stretch run...

wilson
09-17-2018, 08:24 AM
Some updates from this week's projections:

Jerry Palm at CBS Sports says Military Bowl vs. Navy (https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions), as does SB Nation's main college football blog (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/9/16/17865606/bowl-projections-2018-college-football-playoff-prediction).
ESPN is split (http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24701796/college-football-bowl-projections-week-3), with one analyst saying Belk Bowl vs. South Carolina and the other saying Sun Bowl vs. Utah.

OldPhiKap
09-17-2018, 09:06 AM
Some updates from this week's projections:

Jerry Palm at CBS Sports says Military Bowl vs. Navy (https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions), as does SB Nation's main college football blog (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/9/16/17865606/bowl-projections-2018-college-football-playoff-prediction).
ESPN is split (http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24701796/college-football-bowl-projections-week-3), with one analyst saying Belk Bowl vs. South Carolina and the other saying Sun Bowl vs. Utah.

I'm aiming higher. But good to know they're putting in a floor for us. ;-)

Seriously, 3-0 at this point is phenomenal. The fact that we did it under the adverse conditions we have encountered so far is even more astounding.

We are talented, deep, and well-coached. Good things can happen.

HereBeforeCoachK
09-17-2018, 09:10 AM
I'm aiming higher. But good to know they're putting in a floor for us. ;-)

Seriously, 3-0 at this point is phenomenal. The fact that we did it under the adverse conditions we have encountered so far is even more astounding.

We are talented, deep, and well-coached. Good things can happen.

Agree with all of this ^^^ - and before the season, I'd have taken being 2-1 at this point, with those kind of bowl projections. Now I think aiming higher is appropriate. Two very different historical lessons...at 4-0 last year, no one thought we'd be 4-6...then at that point, 7-6 was a long long shot. But in 2013, at this point, no one was even fantasizing about 10-2. Seasons take on a life of their own....just look at the emotional roller coaster for Duke from the time DJ and Gilbert were injured.....9 days ago....to now.

wilson
09-17-2018, 09:11 AM
I'm aiming higher. But good to know they're putting in a floor for us. ;-)

Seriously, 3-0 at this point is phenomenal. The fact that we did it under the adverse conditions we have encountered so far is even more astounding.

We are talented, deep, and well-coached. Good things can happen.Fully agreed. I couldn't be more ecstatic that our program has progressed from "Bowl?" to "Which bowl?"
Saturday's performance was, sneakily, one of the best indicators we've gotten throughout the Cutcliffe era that things aren't what they used to be. Even in the Boone/Crowder/Duncan years, I don't think there was enough depth on the roster to pull off that kind of road win.

OldPhiKap
09-17-2018, 09:14 AM
Agree with all of this ^^^ - and before the season, I'd have taken being 2-1 at this point, with those kind of bowl projections. Now I think aiming higher is appropriate. Two very different historical lessons...at 4-0 last year, no one thought 6-6 was where we'd end up. But in 2013, at this point, no one was even fantasizing about 10-2.

Yup.

There are three games that we will likely be clear underdogs -- VT, @Clemson, @Miami. Taking 1 out of 3 would be difficult but not out of the question.

Everything else should be roughly pick'em, slight dog, or a favorite of some sort.

I picked 9-3 before the season started, so I'll stick with that. But as you say, it could be anything from here on out. One game at a time.

wilson
09-17-2018, 09:24 AM
Yup.

There are three games that we will likely be clear underdogs -- VT, @Clemson, @Miami. Taking 1 out of 3 would be difficult but not out of the question.

Everything else should be roughly pick'em, slight dog, or a favorite of some sort.

I picked 9-3 before the season started, so I'll stick with that. But as you say, it could be anything from here on out. One game at a time.Again, agreed. Pretty clearly, the VA Tech game is our best chance to jump up and nick one of those. I'm willing to put the over/under on wins at 9.5 right now, though if I'm being really honest, I'd take the under.

ratamero
09-17-2018, 10:56 AM
Yup.

There are three games that we will likely be clear underdogs -- VT, @Clemson, @Miami. Taking 1 out of 3 would be difficult but not out of the question.



FPI already has us as slight favourites in the VT game (something like 52% IIRC). Granted, computer rankings seem too love us, but 1 out of those 3 games seem perfectly feasible.

budwom
09-17-2018, 11:01 AM
Again, agreed. Pretty clearly, the VA Tech game is our best chance to jump up and nick one of those. I'm willing to put the over/under on wins at 9.5 right now, though if I'm being really honest, I'd take the under.

love your optimism, but that seems crazy high. Not knowing when Jones will return, right now I'd count on going 4-0 to start, losses to VT, Clemmons and Miami, then winning half of the other five, for an over/under of 6.5...taking four of that remaining five would put it at 8.0, beyond which I don't dare venture.
p.s. FPI may favor us vs VT, but I bet Las Vegas won't...

OldPhiKap
09-17-2018, 11:09 AM
FPI already has us as slight favourites in the VT game (something like 52% IIRC). Granted, computer rankings seem too love us, but 1 out of those 3 games seem perfectly feasible.


love your optimism, but that seems crazy high. Not knowing when Jones will return, right now I'd count on going 4-0 to start, losses to VT, Clemmons and Miami, then winning half of the other five, for an over/under of 6.5...taking four of that remaining five would put it at 8.0, beyond which I don't dare venture.
p.s. FPI may favor us vs VT, but I bet Las Vegas won't...

Don't want to discount this weekend for either team of course, but I would be shocked if Vegas doesn't have us at least -5.5 against VT.

wilson
09-17-2018, 11:19 AM
The Sporting News has weighed in for the week too, predicting Sun Bowl vs. USC (http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/college-football-2018-19-bowl-projections-week-4-rankings-playoff-picks-alabama-georgia-ohio-state-clemson/1wtli2z6ylljb1pban7ykwy9k6).

devildeac
09-17-2018, 11:23 AM
The Sporting News has weighed in for the week too, predicting Sun Bowl vs. USC (http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/college-football-2018-19-bowl-projections-week-4-rankings-playoff-picks-alabama-georgia-ohio-state-clemson/1wtli2z6ylljb1pban7ykwy9k6).

OPK just booked his flight and ordered tix and has multiple hepatitis vaccines on stand-by. Maybe we'll see Jack Sears play...

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Acymetric
09-17-2018, 11:25 AM
I'm surprised at all the Sun Bowl projections...I guess its been 4 years but I feel like we would not be their first choice. I would think Belk, Music City, or Taxslayer bowls would be more likely than Sun Bowl or Pinstripe bowl if we end up in that tier.

OldPhiKap
09-17-2018, 11:32 AM
OPK just booked his flight and ordered tix and has multiple hepatitis vaccines on stand-by. Maybe we'll see Jack Sears play...

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

One of the NiecePKs is a student at USC, and another is a student at Duke. Would love to see them both in El Paso.

FWIW, if we end up there -- El Paso is fun and the Sun Bowl is worth the trip. My favorite venue of the bowls in the Cut era, even though the most difficult to get to.

Plus -- New Year's Eve in Juarez?!? What could possibly go wrong?

HereBeforeCoachK
09-17-2018, 11:38 AM
Again, agreed. Pretty clearly, the VA Tech game is our best chance to jump up and nick one of those. I'm willing to put the over/under on wins at 9.5 right now, though if I'm being really honest, I'd take the under.

I think Miami might be better chance to pick one off than VT - and Clemson, well, they're just on another level....

jimsumner
09-17-2018, 11:56 AM
I think Miami might be better chance to pick one off than VT - and Clemson, well, they're just on another level...

Miami is on the road, while VT is at home.

But Daniel Jones should be the QB against Miami but not against VT. With a healthy Jones, I would like Duke's chances at home against the Hokies.

But in his absence, this is a tough one.

devildeac
09-17-2018, 11:59 AM
One of the NiecePKs is a student at USC, and another is a student at Duke. Would love to see them both in El Paso.

FWIW, if we end up there -- El Paso is fun and the Sun Bowl is worth the trip. My favorite venue of the bowls in the Cut era, even though the most difficult to get to.

Plus -- New Year's Eve in Juarez?!? What could possibly go wrong?

DBR can't raise enough bail money to have you extradited?

:eek::rolleyes:

jimsumner
09-17-2018, 12:27 PM
What were Duke's bowl projections last year when Duke was 4-0?

What were they when Duke was 4-6?

I prefer to get to six wins and start thinking about it then.

budwom
09-17-2018, 01:01 PM
^ yeah, pretty pointless now...gotta get some people healthy first...

OldPhiKap
09-17-2018, 01:08 PM
Of course, right now we're only 3-0. But as someone upthread suggested, real programs have real expectations. I don't mind that there is an expectation of this team going to a bowl.

It is always smart to temper one's expectations. But there is no reason to keep them dormant either.

As Cut said about the drive where QH drove us 75 yards down the field in the third quarter after Baylor cut the lead to ten: what is your intent when you go out there? Is it to succeed or to fail?

HereBeforeCoachK
09-17-2018, 02:30 PM
What were Duke's bowl projections last year when Duke was 4-0?

What were they when Duke was 4-6?

I prefer to get to six wins and start thinking about it then.

I remember Cut saying something a few years ago - maybe 2014 or 2015 - that yeah, it's always really good and a relief to get number six, even in seasons when you expect more. I feel ya on that......

That said, this group could go 8 or 8+ I think.

OldPhiKap
09-17-2018, 02:35 PM
I remember Cut saying something a few years ago - maybe 2014 or 2015 - that yeah, it's always really good and a relief to get number six, even in seasons when you expect more. I feel ya on that...

That said, this group could go 8 or 8+ I think.

Cut says that he always tells young coaches -- "never forget how to count to six"

AustinDevil
09-17-2018, 04:56 PM
OPK just booked his flight and ordered tix and has multiple hepatitis vaccines on stand-by. Maybe we'll see Jack Sears play...

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

If so, may he follow in Surratt’s footsteps and fulfill that long-ago dream of throwing his first Duke TD pass!

OldPhiKap
09-23-2018, 11:46 AM
New week, new lineup.

Duke-Colorado to Sun Bowl: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

HereBeforeCoachK
09-23-2018, 12:04 PM
If so, may he follow in Surratt’s footsteps and fulfill that long-ago dream of throwing his first Duke TD pass!

That would be good company.....I think that Andrew Luck had one of those passes too. (He had many more for Stanford, however...)

fuse
09-23-2018, 02:38 PM
New week, new lineup.

Duke-Colorado to Sun Bowl: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Runs counter to the line of thinking of there are too many bowls already, it would be great if we could get a bowl in Durham (failing that, Raleigh or Chapel Hill would be ok, too).

I can’t imagine the stadium in Annapolis for the Military Bowl is much bigger than Wally Wade.

Yes, I know Belk Bowl in Charlotte.

MarkD83
09-23-2018, 02:42 PM
I look at this very much like basketball season. To enhance your post season prospects win all of your non conference games. Mission accomplished. Next step is finishing high in the conference. The difference in football is Duke can have a disappointing conference record (only 2 wins) and go to a bowl

Bob Green
09-23-2018, 02:49 PM
I can’t imagine the stadium in Annapolis for the Military Bowl is much bigger than Wally Wade.



Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium seats 34,000 or 6,000 less than Wallace Wade Stadium.

Acymetric
09-23-2018, 02:55 PM
New week, new lineup.

Duke-Colorado to Sun Bowl: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

They are dead set on us going to the Sun Bowl, aren't they?

OldPhiKap
09-23-2018, 02:56 PM
As an aside, I love that the top seven threads right now are all about Duke football and the Wallace Wade experience.

Devil in the Blue Dress
09-23-2018, 02:59 PM
New week, new lineup.

Duke-Colorado to Sun Bowl: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions
We could meet up with Mike MacIntyre who was Coach Cutcliffe's first DC at Duke. (MacIntyre was Assistant Coach of the Year in 2009.) Mike is in his 6th. year as HC at Colorado.

Reilly
09-23-2018, 03:04 PM
We could meet up with Mike MacIntyre who was Coach Cutcliffe's first DC at Duke. (MacIntyre was Assistant Coach of the Year in 2009.) Mike is in his 6th. year as HC at Colorado.

Also Kurt Roper's current stop.

OldPhiKap
09-23-2018, 03:15 PM
We could meet up with Mike MacIntyre who was Coach Cutcliffe's first DC at Duke. (MacIntyre was Assistant Coach of the Year in 2009.) Mike is in his 6th. year as HC at Colorado.


Also Kurt Roper's current stop.

Kurt v. Zac. Fun.

I remember when Cut came in and said he would try to build the best coaching staff in the country. Mike MacIntyre stood out to me because the prior season he had been a coach with the NY Jets. I knew that Cut wasn’t kidding about trying to do exactly what he promised.

Reilly
09-23-2018, 03:51 PM
Kurt v. Zac ...

Hmmm, wonder what the first play from scrimmage will be, no matter who receives the opening kick?

HereBeforeCoachK
09-23-2018, 05:57 PM
Hmmm, wonder what the first play from scrimmage will be, no matter who receives the opening kick?

HAH,I know what you're thinking. I'm wondering who will be the first to run a 4 yard pass play on 3rd and 7?

That said, Roper's call versus Texas A&M was a masterpiece....almost 700 total yards.

Bob Green
09-23-2018, 08:45 PM
ESPN projects us to the Belk Bowl:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24773646/college-football-bowl-projections-week-4


Belk Bowl

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Dec. 29, noon (ABC)

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Duke
Sherman: Mississippi State vs. Duke

HereBeforeCoachK
09-23-2018, 08:46 PM
ESPN projects us to the Belk Bowl:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24773646/college-football-bowl-projections-week-4

If that happens, with SC, they might bring 50 thousand to Charlotte. Columbia is much closer to Charlotte anyway, and Rock Hill has a lot of Gamecock fans.

OldPhiKap
09-23-2018, 08:49 PM
Don’t want to play USC. Don’t want to play the freezing Belk Bowl again.

Let’s play the ACC championship game in Charlotte, then play in a warmer bowl.

Devil in the Blue Dress
09-23-2018, 09:07 PM
Don’t want to play USC. Don’t want to play the freezing Belk Bowl again.

Let’s play the ACC championship game in Charlotte, then play in a warmer bowl.

And the people said, "Amen!".

CameronBornAndBred
09-23-2018, 09:19 PM
ESPN projects us to the Belk Bowl:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24773646/college-football-bowl-projections-week-4

They've had that projection since week 1. I like the matchup, and the proximity. (But yes, I'd love a more elite bowl.)

duke2x
09-24-2018, 12:06 AM
Don’t want to play USC. Don’t want to play the freezing Belk Bowl again.

Let’s play the ACC championship game in Charlotte, then play in a warmer bowl.

The ACC Championship game was worse. I ended up taking Amtrak down to Charlotte due to the forecast of glazed roads. The train was loaded with Duke fans.

The road for a warm (and accessible) bowl starts Saturday and eventually goes through Fort Lauderdale in November.

OldPhiKap
09-24-2018, 07:44 AM
Belk Bowl this year will be at noon, on a Saturday (Dec. 29th). So a lot less avoidance desire on my part.

Still, where I live, playing USC has lots of downside. I prefer our paths not to cross.

budwom
09-24-2018, 07:49 AM
Belk Bowl this year will be at noon, on a Saturday (Dec. 29th). So a lot less avoidance desire on my part.

Still, where I live, playing USC has lots of downside. I prefer our paths not to cross.

USC as in Pimento State USC (vs the real Golden State USC)?

OldPhiKap
09-24-2018, 08:15 AM
USC as in Pimento State USC (vs the real Golden State USC)?

“Carolina”

Reilly
09-24-2018, 09:58 AM
Fiesta Bowl is being played at 11 am Mountain Standard Time on 1/1.

If we can dream of warmer locales and bright lights ...

Playoffs - Orange or Cotton

Other New Year's Six - Fiesta or Peach

----

Camping World Friday 12/28 at 5:15 pm in Orlando v. Big 12 would be nice.

I'd then rather have the Gator in Jax on Monday 12/31 at 7:30 pm v. SEC or the Music City in Nashville on Friday 12/28 at 1:30 pm v. SEC over the ones we've been to before (Belk, Pinstripe, Sun).

Will be nice to make any bowl. Would be good to rise above the Military, Independence, Quick Lane tier ...

https://theacc.com/news/2018/6/22/football-2018-19-acc-bowl-affiliations.aspx

OldPhiKap
09-24-2018, 10:01 AM
Will be nice to make any bowl. Would be good to rise above the Military, Independence, Quick Lane tier ...



You expressed my thoughts exactly.

We're 0-0 in the ACC. The real season starts now.

CameronBornAndBred
09-24-2018, 11:06 AM
Belk Bowl this year will be at noon, on a Saturday (Dec. 29th). So a lot less avoidance desire on my part.


That is very true. The year we played, it was a late afternoon/evening kick, which allowed for a fun tailgate beforehand. A nooner barely gives enough time to park and set up a Weber Smokey Joe much less a grill that feeds dozens.

HereBeforeCoachK
09-24-2018, 01:46 PM
Belk Bowl this year will be at noon, on a Saturday (Dec. 29th). So a lot less avoidance desire on my part.

Still, where I live, playing USC has lots of downside. I prefer our paths not to cross.

I have ties to both schools....I HATE HATE HATE it when they play each other (thankfully a rare occurrence. )

Jim3k
09-24-2018, 11:13 PM
Gator Bowl is good.

Our history with the Gator Bowl is that in 1963, we disinvited them (and didn't get a hoped-for invitation to a higher level bowl).

If we get invited to the Gator this season, that history will be a meaningless factoid, but will be treated as the harbinger of the decades-long drought that would follow. Tom Harp and his Doug Knight-supported successors notwithstanding.

My real feeling about a bowl this season is: Let's just keep playing well. Success will lead to the bowl we deserve, whether that is the Gator or somewhere else. Anything else is hot air. Personally, being a West Coaster, I'd prefer something I can actually justify attending. I'm not counting on Levis Stadium on January 7, but I'd find a way for that one should it eventuate. The Fiesta would be ideal (at-large v. at-large). But right now, it's just "play one game at a time." No hot air.

sagegrouse
09-24-2018, 11:14 PM
Gator Bowl is good.

Our history with the Gator Bowl is that in 1963, we disinvited them (and didn't get a hoped-for invitation to a higher level bowl).

If we get invited to the Gator this season, that history will be a meaningless factoid, but will be treated as the harbinger of the decades-long drought that would follow. Tom Harp and his Doug Knight-supported successors notwithstanding.

My real feeling about a bowl this season is: Let's just keep playing well. Success will lead to the bowl we deserve, whether that is the Gator or somewhere else. Anything else is hot air. Personally, being a West Coaster, I'd prefer something I can actually justify attending. I'm not counting on Levis Stadium on January 7, but I'd find a way for that one should it eventuate. The Fiesta would be ideal (at-large v. at-large). But right now, it's just "play one game at a time." No hot air.

1962, Jim, when we were 8-2, losing only to USC on the coast in the opener and at Georgia Tech.

Jim3k
09-25-2018, 12:17 AM
1962, Jim, when we were 8-2, losing only to USC on the coast in the opener and at Georgia Tech.

I need an editor. But then, I always have. Yes. 1962.

Yes (again). That was the season where on October 6 we were down to Florida 0-21 at the half--being played at the Gator Bowl stadium in Jacksonville. In the second half, we scored 28 unanswered points to win 28-21.

So we didn't see any necessity to play there again. :rolleyes:

I remembered that game, but looked it up just now to get the details right.

Bob Green
10-07-2018, 12:11 PM
CBS Sports predicts Duke vs Oregon in Sun Bowl:

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

OldPhiKap
10-07-2018, 12:19 PM
CBS Sports predicts Duke vs Oregon in Sun Bowl:

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

That would be a fun game.

YmoBeThere
10-07-2018, 01:19 PM
Back to El Paso would be doable for me.

TruBlu
10-07-2018, 02:59 PM
Back to El Paso would be doable for me.

Just stay away from Rose’s Cantina. It has a reputation for gunfights. Just ask Marty Robbins.

Reilly
10-14-2018, 11:15 AM
CFN says Duke/Maryland in Yankee Stadium.

https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/10/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-7

Reilly
10-14-2018, 11:16 AM
SB says USF/Duke at Gasparilla in Tampa: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/10/14/17974398/bowl-game-projections-2018-college-football-playoff-predictions

Reilly
10-14-2018, 11:20 AM
TSN: Purdue in Pinstripe: http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/college-football-2018-19-bowl-projections-week-7-rankings-playoff-picks-notre-dame-alabama-ohio-state/yz9hiqy9rnni1jis8e8690o6c

Reilly
10-14-2018, 11:21 AM
Orlando paper (usu pretty thoughtful): Washington State in the Sun: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gridiron-365/os-sp-college-football-bowl-projections-2018-htmlstory.html

Reilly
10-14-2018, 11:22 AM
Bleacher Report -- no bowl for Duke: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2800736-bowl-predictions-2018-projecting-college-football-playoff-field-after-week-7

arnie
10-14-2018, 11:49 AM
Bleacher Report -- no bowl for Duke: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2800736-bowl-predictions-2018-projecting-college-football-playoff-field-after-week-7

Bizarre

jimsumner
10-14-2018, 11:57 AM
CFN says Duke/Maryland in Yankee Stadium.

https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/10/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-7

But they aren't our rival.

budwom
10-14-2018, 12:47 PM
What happened to those projections to play The Other USC (Pimento State, not Southern Cal)?

BandAlum83
10-14-2018, 12:53 PM
Bizarre

This obviously goes to the attention to detail that the author(s) apply to this click bait. they probably took us out of the last projected game with the intent to put us in something different, and then forgot.

While there is a non-zero chance we will lose our next six game, it is highly unlikely we will not win at least one and secure some bowl game somewhere.

The really interesting story, to me, is: Can UCF go undefeated 2 years in a row and still not get into the playoffs?

HereBeforeCoachK
10-14-2018, 02:03 PM
Bleacher Report -- no bowl for Duke: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2800736-bowl-predictions-2018-projecting-college-football-playoff-field-after-week-7

When I just linked to it, they had Duke Cincy in the Military Bowl.....(which does seem odd)

DU82
10-14-2018, 02:07 PM
Bleacher Report -- no bowl for Duke: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2800736-bowl-predictions-2018-projecting-college-football-playoff-field-after-week-7

I presume they changed it after you viewed the page, but they have us in the Military Bowl against Cincinnati.

jimsumner
10-14-2018, 02:13 PM
I presume they changed it after you viewed the page, but they have us in the Military Bowl against Cincinnati.

Yes, they did change it. Because Duke was absent earlier this morning.

This would give Duke a chance to avenge that 2012 Belk Bowl loss. The first of three snatching defeat from the jaws of victory bowl losses.

OldPhiKap
10-14-2018, 02:16 PM
Yes, they did change it. Because Duke was absent earlier this morning.

This would give Duke a chance to avenge that 2012 Belk Bowl loss. The first of three snatching defeat from the jaws of victory bowl losses.

UNC’s loss yesterday — fumbling while driving late in the fourth quarter for the clinching score, then giving up a drive and points to lose — reminded me of that cold night.

budwom
10-14-2018, 02:32 PM
I presume they changed it after you viewed the page, but they have us in the Military Bowl against Cincinnati.

Getting to a bowl is crucial; however, I'd like to think we could do better this year than the Military Bowl...(fully acknowledging that we have a bunch of tough games ahead).
Would be nice to get eight or more wins in the regular season, head someplace warmer...

BandAlum83
10-14-2018, 02:47 PM
Yes, they did change it. Because Duke was absent earlier this morning.

This would give Duke a chance to avenge that 2012 Belk Bowl loss. The first of three snatching defeat from the jaws of victory bowl losses.

So they have us coming out in this order in the ACC:

After Clemson (playoffs)

No ACC teams in the New years 6

Miami in the next level (Camping Bowl)

VT, BC, NCSU in the next level (Tier One Bowls)

And Duke at the top of the next level (additional Bowls)

2018-19 ACC BOWL AFFILIATIONS (http://www.theacc.com/sports/2018/7/27/FB_0727180307.aspx)


So Basically the 6th best. How does everyone feel about his?

If we end up ahead of VT, NCSU, or BC, we get into a Tier One Bowl. Although, the infographic on the linked website differentiates Tier One bowls in a different manner than the text in the section below.

Does anyone know how this works?
Is it standings in the conference?
How do they compare teams in different divisions?
Do the poll rankings have an impact?

DU82
10-14-2018, 02:50 PM
Getting to a bowl is crucial; however, I'd like to think we could do better this year than the Military Bowl...(fully acknowledging that we have a bunch of tough games ahead).
Would be nice to get eight or more wins in the regular season, head someplace warmer...

I assume that they look at things as of today, instead of fully projecting the rest of the season. So they have Miami, VT, State, BC and Syracuse ahead of us. Don’t disagree with the first three, could argue the last two. (Putting Clemson and ND in the playoffs, of course.)

I already have my hotel room in El Paso (only trip I’d have to plan ahead.). Would love to change that to sunny Florida, though.

(Edit: I see my fellow DUMB alum posted about the same time with more detail.)

BandAlum83
10-14-2018, 02:54 PM
I assume that they look at things as of today, instead of fully projecting the rest of the season. So they have Miami, VT, State, BC and Syracuse ahead of us. Don’t disagree with the first three, could argue the last two. (Putting Clemson and ND in the playoffs, of course.)

I already have my hotel room in El Paso (only trip I’d have to plan ahead.). Would love to change that to sunny Florida, though.

(Edit: I see my fellow DUMB alum posted about the same time with more detail.)

I did post about the same time, but I missed Syracuse. I guess I still have trouble remembering they are an ACC team!

DU82
10-14-2018, 02:58 PM
So they have us coming out in this order in the ACC:

After Clemson (playoffs)

No ACC teams in the New years 6

Miami in the next level (Camping Bowl)

VT, BC, NCSU in the next level (Tier One Bowls)

And Duke at the top of the next level (additional Bowls)

2018-19 ACC BOWL AFFILIATIONS (http://www.theacc.com/sports/2018/7/27/FB_0727180307.aspx)


So Basically the 6th best. How does everyone feel about his?

If we end up ahead of VT, NCSU, or BC, we get into a Tier One Bowl. Although, the infographic on the linked website differentiates Tier One bowls in a different manner than the text in the section below.

Does anyone know how this works?
Is it standings in the conference?
How do they compare teams in different divisions?
Do the poll rankings have an impact?

Further review had Syracuse ahead of us, too, filling the fourth tier one bowl. So we’re eighth on their lists, including ND. That’s just one list, it’s better on some, and one prognosticator had us lower, in the Gasparilla bowl.

It’s up to the bowl committees to select. I believe there’s some “protection” for overall records, including the loser of the championship game. But if the bowls don’t like us, we drop down. Fortunately, we’ve performed well, both in the games and in the stands with tickets purchased.

Reilly
10-14-2018, 03:14 PM
Duke/Mississippi State in Nashville would be fun: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

HereBeforeCoachK
10-14-2018, 04:30 PM
Duke/Mississippi State in Nashville would be fun: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Duke vs ANYONE in Nashville would be fun. Great town...great atmosphere for Titan games (where the game would be played I think) and for Nashville Predator games (arena is right on the strip).

TruBlu
10-14-2018, 05:27 PM
Yes, they did change it. Because Duke was absent earlier this morning.

This would give Duke a chance to avenge that 2012 Belk Bowl loss. The first of three snatching defeat from the jaws of victory bowl losses.

I have no recollection of this 2012 Belk Bowl of which you speak. My therapist suggested that I not try to recall that memory, for some reason.

jimsumner
10-14-2018, 06:45 PM
I have no recollection of this 2012 Belk Bowl of which you speak. My therapist suggested that I not try to recall that memory, for some reason.

Or it could be that your brain just froze and those memories are waiting to be thawed.

Even the Duke players from up north were amazed at how cold it was.

But, yes, just hold on the ball, Josh Snead. Just hold on to it.

Pghdukie
10-14-2018, 09:49 PM
If the stars and moons align themselves, Duke can play Penn State in a White-Out Bowl game. Here's hoping !

Devil in the Blue Dress
10-14-2018, 10:26 PM
If the stars and moons align themselves, Duke can play Penn State in a White-Out Bowl game. Here's hoping !
Wouldn't that be a sight! :D Rather than blend in with our opponents, Coach might call for a "blue out."

MarkD83
10-15-2018, 07:11 AM
So I read on Wikipedia that there are 40 bowl games which need 80 teams and only 130 FBS teams. At this point wouldn't it be easier to track who is not going bowling.....

Unc
Nebraska
UCLA
.......

TruBlu
10-15-2018, 08:09 AM
unc has volunteered to self-impose a bowl ban this year. This ban is to be counted against future NCAA violations, or violations which undoubtedly have already occurred but haven’t been discovered yet.

OldPhiKap
10-15-2018, 09:10 AM
Both ESPN analysts have us in Orlando in the Camping World Bowl, whatever that is:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24981515/college-football-bowl-projections-week-7

Either a rematch of '89 with Texas Tech, or Iowa State.

budwom
10-15-2018, 09:19 AM
Both ESPN analysts have us in Orlando in the Camping World Bowl, whatever that is:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24981515/college-football-bowl-projections-week-7

Either a rematch of '89 with Texas Tech, or Iowa State.

I'm not for any bowl in which our guys have to bring their own tents. They should stay in a nice hotel and eat good hot food.

JasonEvans
10-15-2018, 10:45 AM
I'm not for any bowl in which our guys have to bring their own tents. They should stay in a nice hotel and eat good hot food.

Silly... we won't be staying in tents.

https://www.rvrentacampervan.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/moturis-rv-Camper.jpg

OldPhiKap
10-15-2018, 11:18 AM
Is the game held in an RV park?

As long as it's in Orlando, that would be fine with me.

jimsumner
10-15-2018, 11:30 AM
So I read on Wikipedia that there are 40 bowl games which need 80 teams and only 130 FBS teams. At this point wouldn't it be easier to track who is not going bowling....

Unc
Nebraska
UCLA
....

Yea. College football really needs to compress its bowl schedule. I'm not sure any 6-6 team should go bowling and yes, I include the 2012 Duke team.

CameronBornAndBred
10-15-2018, 01:06 PM
Yea. College football really needs to compress its bowl schedule. I'm not sure any 6-6 team should go bowling and yes, I include the 2012 Duke team.

The celebration of mediocrity!

Indoor66
10-15-2018, 01:47 PM
Yea. College football really needs to compress its bowl schedule. I'm not sure any 6-6 team should go bowling and yes, I include the 2012 Duke team.

But everyone deserves a trophy, don't they?

Devil in the Blue Dress
10-15-2018, 01:47 PM
If it's warm, the people will bowl. ;)

MarkD83
10-15-2018, 07:23 PM
So it is a bit premature, but a quick sort of the 2018 records of FBS schools has 21 teams 1 or 2 losses away from being eliminated from a bowl game. Perhaps in early Nov. this list will make more sense since teams will be mathematically eliminated.

5 loss teams

Louisville Cardinals
New Mexico State Aggies
UMass Minutemen
Wyoming Cowboys
South Alabama Jaguars
UConn Huskies
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Oregon State Beavers
UCLA Bruins
Texas State Bobcats

6 loss teams

Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Old Dominion Monarchs
Rice Owls
Bowling Green Falcons
Kent State Golden Flashes
Central Michigan Chippewas
Arkansas Razorbacks
Nebraska Cornhuskers
UTEP Miners
San Jose State Spartans

CameronBornAndBred
10-15-2018, 07:41 PM
So it is a bit premature, but a quick sort of the 2018 records of FBS schools has 21 teams 1 or 2 losses away from being eliminated from a bowl game. Perhaps in early Nov. this list will make more sense since teams will be mathematically eliminated.

5 loss teams

Louisville Cardinals
New Mexico State Aggies
UMass Minutemen
Wyoming Cowboys
South Alabama Jaguars
UConn Huskies
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Oregon State Beavers
UCLA Bruins
Texas State Bobcats

6 loss teams

Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Old Dominion Monarchs
Rice Owls
Bowling Green Falcons
Kent State Golden Flashes
Central Michigan Chippewas
Arkansas Razorbacks
Nebraska Cornhuskers
UTEP Miners
San Jose State Spartans
You can add unc in to the 5 loss column, with an asterisk.

Reilly
10-15-2018, 10:01 PM
Brett McMurphy says Duke/Stanford in the Sun Bowl.

OldPhiKap
10-15-2018, 10:02 PM
Brett McMurphy says Duke/Stanford in the Sun Bowl.

That would work. My tat needs some touching up.

CameronBornAndBred
10-16-2018, 12:06 AM
Brett McMurphy says Duke/Stanford in the Sun Bowl.

Brain Bowl

fuse
10-16-2018, 06:59 AM
Our recent bowl history has been interesting.

I chose not to go to the Goldsmith era Duke Wisconsin bowl expecting it to be a slaughter (I was not wrong).

I’d rather see Duke go to a bowl where the matchup is competitive (or Duke is favored) than set up with a lopsided matchup where Duke is at a major disadvantage.

Giving Jim Sumner all the credit for the commentary on road wins, I expect that will propel Duke into a bowl game with a tougher opponent than years’ past.

To be fair to Cut and recent history, I thought A&M would run away with the Peach Bowl. Didn’t stop me from going, and wow, that was one exciting football game in spite of the outcome.

Just going to say its awesome in general to be talking Duke football and bowl games.

YmoBeThere
10-16-2018, 07:04 AM
Our recent bowl history has been interesting.

I chose not to go to the Goldsmith era Duke Wisconsin bowl expecting it to be a slaughter (I was not wrong).

I’d rather see Duke go to a bowl where the matchup is competitive (or Duke is favored) than set up with a lopsided matchup.

To be fair to Cut and recent history, I thought A&M would run away with the Peach Bowl. Didn’t stop me from going, and wow, that was one exciting football game in spite of the outcome.

One would have thought a Top 15 ranked Arizona State would have handled unranked Duke in the 2014 Sun Bowl. I'm not sure what the betting line was, but the final was 36-31. Now that we have a couple bowl wins in recent years, I'm more interested in us getting a statement opportunity against a non-conference opponent. Of course, leading into that moment where we shock the world(2019 opener) would be nice.

OldPhiKap
10-16-2018, 07:35 AM
Our recent bowl history has been interesting.

I chose not to go to the Goldsmith era Duke Wisconsin bowl expecting it to be a slaughter (I was not wrong).

I’d rather see Duke go to a bowl where the matchup is competitive (or Duke is favored) than set up with a lopsided matchup where Duke is at a major disadvantage.

Giving Jim Sumner all the credit for the commentary on road wins, I expect that will propel Duke into a bowl game with a tougher opponent than years’ past.

To be fair to Cut and recent history, I thought A&M would run away with the Peach Bowl. Didn’t stop me from going, and wow, that was one exciting football game in spite of the outcome.

Just going to say its awesome in general to be talking Duke football and bowl games.

I went to the game against Whisky in Tampa. I wouldn’t say it was a slaughter, but we were certainly beat by a better team.

I say, give us the best opponent possible and let’s see what happens. Cut gets us ready to compete.

(Side note, we took the lead in the fourth quarter against Az.St., but after going ahead we gave up something like a 92-yard kickoff return to let the Sun Devils start in our red zone and then retake the lead for good. It was a close game, even though we trailed for almost all of it).

sagegrouse
10-16-2018, 09:03 AM
Our recent bowl history has been interesting.

I chose not to go to the Goldsmith era Duke Wisconsin bowl expecting it to be a slaughter (I was not wrong).

I’d rather see Duke go to a bowl where the matchup is competitive (or Duke is favored) than set up with a lopsided matchup where Duke is at a major disadvantage.

Giving Jim Sumner all the credit for the commentary on road wins, I expect that will propel Duke into a bowl game with a tougher opponent than years’ past.

To be fair to Cut and recent history, I thought A&M would run away with the Peach Bowl. Didn’t stop me from going, and wow, that was one exciting football game in spite of the outcome.

Just going to say its awesome in general to be talking Duke football and bowl games.

In all of our recent bowl games, we either won (Indiana, Northern Illinois) or led the game in the fourth quarter -- inexplicable losses to Cincinnati and Texas A&M and a close game in the Sun Bowl against a superior Arizona State team. The evidence suggests that Duke is well-prepared for the end-of-season games.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-16-2018, 09:30 AM
In all of our recent bowl games, we either won (Indiana, Northern Illinois) or led the game in the fourth quarter -- inexplicable losses to Cincinnati and Texas A&M and a close game in the Sun Bowl against a superior Arizona State team. The evidence suggests that Duke is well-prepared for the end-of-season games.

It does indeed. Strangely, with the Texas A&M match up, I felt very confident, figuring we matched up better with them than we did against FSU, who had spanked us in Charlotte. Also, in a moment of unusual clairvoyance, my thought was our best chance was the be the first team to 50, and I hoped Roper would call that kind of game. He did. And the first team to 50 did win, and it almost was Duke. I also thought we needed at least one bomb TD (we did get one, to Crowder) and would need one non offensive TD, either special teams or defense (sadly it was A&M who had that).

So my keys to the game were right on the money, and the match up clearly was good for us, as we dominated many of the stats, and lost because of A: poor clock management late first half and B; pick six. It was Kurt Roper's best (and final) offensive game plan ever at Duke, as the Devils had almost 700 yards total offense - and they were exciting and daring to watch. But the clock management was inexcusable, and wasted a fabulous pass by Boone.

I knew the Devils could play that way, and I was a bit concerned because I thought the play calling was a bit conservative late against WFU and the Cheats, even though we won both games. Both were close, and Duke was much better than either.

Actually, we've not had an offensive performance anywhere close to that since. This is probably the third year in a row where the Duke D is the best unit. Jamison Crowder was a true jewel.

budwom
10-16-2018, 03:55 PM
I can't help myself. Every time I see UCONN on the crapola list (five losses and sinking like a stone) my heart flutters.

rtnorthrup
10-16-2018, 03:56 PM
I can't help myself. Every time I see UCONN on the crapola list (five losses and sinking like a stone) my heart flutters.

And yet, so many people advocated for them to join the ACC. Can't fathom it.

JasonEvans
10-16-2018, 04:16 PM
And yet, so many people advocated for them to join the ACC. Can't fathom it.

I'm not saying they should have been invited, but a pretty good argument can be made that by being in a non-Power 5 football conference, their athletic programs have really struggled with recruiting, fundraising, and fan interest in a way they might not have if they were invited into the ACC or some other major conference.

I'm just saying, you can't look at how bad they are now and say it is proof they would have been this bad if they were in the conference.

-Jason "whew, the folks at Syracuse, BC, and Va Tech must thank their lucky stars they made the move they did" Evans

sagegrouse
10-16-2018, 04:33 PM
I'm not saying they should have been invited, but a pretty good argument can be made that by being in a non-Power 5 football conference, their athletic programs have really struggled with recruiting, fundraising, and fan interest in a way they might not have if they were invited into the ACC or some other major conference.

I'm just saying, you can't look at how bad they are now and say it is proof they would have been this bad if they were in the conference.

-Jason "whew, the folks at Syracuse, BC, and Va Tech must thank their lucky stars they made the move they did" Evans

Opinion/history -- it si good to review, and I am not totally sure of my memory:

Virginia Tech has wanted to be in the ACC since its founding in 1953. The only reason VT got admitted was that the ACC needed Virginia's vote to add BC and Miami (I think) because Duke and UNC were opposed to expansion. In truth, the last school in the world that Virginia wanted in the ACC was Virginia Tech, but state politics made it necessary that Virginia make its vote contingent on VT. The academic lesson here is that this is a "john Nash" kind of problem. Duke and UNC needed to think clearly about what the other teams would vote on. By not doing so ("standing on principle and losing"), they got a worse outcome.

BC was part of the package. also, forget about fellow New England school, UConn, joining the ACC as long as BC is in the conference.

I don't remember the details of Louisville, but this was during the grab bag era a few years ago, and the ACC picked Louisville over WVa as I remember it.

BLPOG
10-16-2018, 05:10 PM
Opinion/history -- it si good to review, and I am not totally sure of my memory:

Virginia Tech has wanted to be in the ACC since its founding in 1953. The only reason VT got admitted was that the ACC needed Virginia's vote to add BC and Miami (I think) because Duke and UNC were opposed to expansion. In truth, the last school in the world that Virginia wanted in the ACC was Virginia Tech, but state politics made it necessary that Virginia make its vote contingent on VT. The academic lesson here is that this is a "john Nash" kind of problem. Duke and UNC needed to think clearly about what the other teams would vote on. By not doing so ("standing on principle and losing"), they got a worse outcome.

BC was part of the package. also, forget about fellow New England school, UConn, joining the ACC as long as BC is in the conference.

I don't remember the details of Louisville, but this was during the grab bag era a few years ago, and the ACC picked Louisville over WVa as I remember it.

I don't think that game theory is correct. In a Nash equilibrium, players can't improve their outcome without changes in other players' strategies. Thinking about/knowing other teams' strategies isn't enough; if fact, it's already assumed as part of what locks one in to equilibrium. What they would need to do is conspire and have credible penalties for reneging.

sagegrouse
10-16-2018, 06:35 PM
I don't think that game theory is correct. In a Nash equilibrium, players can't improve their outcome without changes in other players' strategies. Thinking about/knowing other teams' strategies isn't enough; if fact, it's already assumed as part of what locks one in to equilibrium. What they would need to do is conspire and have credible penalties for reneging.

You will not that I didn't say, "Nash Equilibrium." The 2004 contract expansion was a game-theoretic type problem, in which players need to consider what others would do as opposed to voting for the preferred outcome. Duke and UNC, joined at the hip for once, opposed expansion (seem really dated, doesn't it?). By voting "no," it compelled the majority to enlist Virginia in support of expansion. The price of getting Virginia was getting Virginia Tech, which none of Virginia, Duke and UNC wanted at all.

Kindly,
Sage
'I like dropping John Nash's name, although unhappily I never met him'

budwom
10-17-2018, 12:29 PM
I'm not saying they should have been invited, but a pretty good argument can be made that by being in a non-Power 5 football conference, their athletic programs have really struggled with recruiting, fundraising, and fan interest in a way they might not have if they were invited into the ACC or some other major conference.

I'm just saying, you can't look at how bad they are now and say it is proof they would have been this bad if they were in the conference.

-Jason "whew, the folks at Syracuse, BC, and Va Tech must thank their lucky stars they made the move they did" Evans

I am certain that not being in a Power 5 conference has cost them dearly, and for this I am most grateful. BC worked hard to blackball the Huskies, and for that I will be eternally grateful.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-17-2018, 12:33 PM
I can't help myself. Every time I see UCONN on the crapola list (five losses and sinking like a stone) my heart flutters.

This is fun to watch, and the thing that always griped me about UConn and some other Big East members is that they whined about what the ACC was doing to expand....whined about TV money and so on.....when their entire conference was only relevant as an ESPN TV show.....back to the days of Dave Gavitt and early ESPN. The Big East was never anything more than a TV show. Without UConn being so close to ESPN, they'd still be known as Connecticut, and virtually unknown at that.

Natty_B
10-18-2018, 12:08 PM
Stewart Mandel of The Athletic has Duke in Belk vs. Auburn.

https://theathletic.com/596158/2018/10/18/stewart-mandels-bowl-projections-at-midseason/

Bob Green
10-21-2018, 10:41 AM
CBS Sports (Jerry Palm) has Duke vs. UAB in the Independence Bowl:

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

arnie
10-21-2018, 10:50 AM
CBS Sports (Jerry Palm) has Duke vs. UAB in the Independence Bowl:

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

He has either done zero research or is huge GaT homer. GaT needs 3 more wins and play VaT, Miami, Georgia, Virginia, Cheats. 3 of the 5 on the road. Which 3 do they win and why would anyone project them in a bowl Now?

YmoBeThere
10-21-2018, 10:54 AM
His pick of the week earlier in the season was Northwestern over Duke. So, there is that.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-21-2018, 11:11 AM
CBS Sports (Jerry Palm) has Duke vs. UAB in the Independence Bowl:

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

I'd take it...I've downgraded my expectations to 6-6 and one of these who gives a _Xamn bowls. Some years the injuries just over whelm a team, we've seen it in hoops and we're seeing it now in FB. (we saw it last year with the cheats in FB, but that was fun). Add a stale offense, and I am having a heckuva time manufacturing any optimism.

Last year I think coaching mistakes turned 9-4 or better into 7-6 (and yes, I credit great leadership in turning 4-6 into 7-6 at the end). This year injuries are turning 9-3 into whatever it is. Leaving a lot of money on the table considering the talent at Duke the last two seasons.

Yeah, I'm in a crabby mood.

MarkD83
10-21-2018, 11:14 AM
80 teams play in bowl games and 130 teams are in the FBS. Six wins are needed to be eligible so 7 losses and a team is mathematically eliminated.

Once we get to 50 teams out we know who is bowling

So who is out or almost out...BTW thank you Syracuse for putting unc on this list...

5 loss teams ( 2 more and out)
UTSA Roadrunners
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Ball State Cardinals
Colorado State Rams
Arizona Wildcats
Vanderbilt Commodores
East Carolina Pirates
Tulane Green Wave
Navy Midshipmen
Louisville Cardinals
Kansas Jayhawks
UNLV Rebels
UCLA Bruins
Georgia State Panthers
South Alabama Jaguars
North Carolina Tar Heels**
(If unc ends with 6 losses my guess is there is a good chance that they will pay a team a lot of money to play and lose a game so that unc gets to 6 wins)

6 loss teams ( 1 more and out)
Old Dominion Monarchs
New Mexico State Aggies
UMass Minutemen
Wyoming Cowboys
Arkansas Razorbacks
UConn Huskies
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Oregon State Beavers
Texas State Bobcats

7 loss teams (mathematically eliminated)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rice Owls
Bowling Green Falcons
Kent State Golden Flashes
Central Michigan Chippewas
UTEP Miners
San Jose State Spartans

Bob Green
10-21-2018, 11:21 AM
I'd take it...I've downgraded my expectations to 6-6...

You're allowing your emotions to get the best of you. Eight wins is still in the cards. One must have faith to persevere.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-21-2018, 11:43 AM
You're allowing your emotions to get the best of you. Eight wins is still in the cards. One must have faith to persevere.

Bob no doubt there's some emotion in that, and I admitted to being crabby (I managed to get scrod by Florence (home and a business) and amazingly by Michael in Raleigh, (large investment flip about ready to sell, caught a huge sycamore tree - and what are the odds? Ten thousand to one I'd say.)

So acknowledging that you're at least somewhat right, and that I'm in a bad mood...at least some of this is not emotion. I figure every Duke game I've ever seen, on the road or at Wally Wade, or on TV...my winning percentage is maybe 30%. I see a team crippled by injuries, a defense that is losing heart, and an offense that is stale, uninteresting and non-threatening. I wonder if we'll ever see Brittain or Aaron back this year, and if so, are they healthy enough to be themselves.

I see an O line that is weak and beat up, but I also see the skill people manage not to make the plays when the O line does a wonderful job. That dropped bomb was simply mental weakness....inexcusable, and might've totally changed the game. We're dad-gummed lucky the ruling on the field for the Kopenhaver TD was a catch, because it was not a catch -yet the replays would not allow an over turn either direction. We can't catch anything but an injury.

So yes, eight is in the cards, but it will require an inside straight from where I sit.

duke2x
10-21-2018, 12:19 PM
He has either done zero research or is huge GaT homer. GaT needs 3 more wins and play VaT, Miami, Georgia, Virginia, Cheats. 3 of the 5 on the road. Which 3 do they win and why would anyone project them in a bowl Now?

As I frequently say, Jerry Palm is not worth the click and could let gambling-inclined Duke students retire before graduation by betting the opposite of what he says. Kudos for him getting CBS to hire him.

The UVA loss is going to make Tier 2 a challenge because of our school size, but it also means a strong chance at a win in a bad bowl. (The ACC has 3 P5/ND wins, all on the road, one of which belongs to Clemson. Only Clemson has a real chance of getting the 4th.) I am hoping Dr. White can lobby the folks in the Military Bowl. It's a perfect distance between NYC and NC, and we have sold our allotments out at Navy before (but understandably not at MD).

Bob Green
10-21-2018, 12:36 PM
I am hoping Dr. White can lobby the folks in the Military Bowl.

Military Bowl works for me.

Bob Green
10-21-2018, 12:56 PM
College Football News says Music City Bowl versus Tennessee:

https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/10/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-8

The Sporting News says Camping World Bowl versus TCU:

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/college-football-2018-19-bowl-projections-week-8-rankings-playoff-picks-notre-dame-alabama-clemson-ohio-state/4ukl83s782qi12hjw6cyvmz08

ESPN says Pinstripe Bowl versus Wisconsin or Belk Bowl versus Tennessee:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/13968797/college-football-bowl-projections-week-8

Bob Green
10-21-2018, 01:07 PM
He has either done zero research or is huge GaT homer. GaT needs 3 more wins and play VaT, Miami, Georgia, Virginia, Cheats. 3 of the 5 on the road. Which 3 do they win and why would anyone project them in a bowl Now?

ESPN also projects Georgia Tech to a bowl game and if that isn't shocking enough they project 1-5 North Carolina to the Sun Bowl. :confused:

BobBender
10-21-2018, 01:09 PM
College Football News says Music City Bowl versus Tennessee:

https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/10/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-8

The Sporting News says Camping World Bowl versus TCU:

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/college-football-2018-19-bowl-projections-week-8-rankings-playoff-picks-notre-dame-alabama-clemson-ohio-state/4ukl83s782qi12hjw6cyvmz08

Not sure if you are being serious about the value of these projections. Either way, lots of important ACC games to be played and it will sort itself out. Say we win 7 regular season games ( a not unlikely outcome), does the Duke brand outweigh the troubling home attendance in getting a better bowl? To me, that is the REAL question.

devildeac
10-21-2018, 01:29 PM
ESPN also projects Georgia Tech to a bowl game and if that isn't shocking enough they project 1-5 North Carolina to the Sun Bowl. :confused:

How in the world could they possibly get to the Sun Bowl when they're eternally in hell?

duke2x
10-22-2018, 12:35 AM
Not sure if you are being serious about the value of these projections. Either way, lots of important ACC games to be played and it will sort itself out. Say we win 7 regular season games ( a not unlikely outcome), does the Duke brand outweigh the troubling home attendance in getting a better bowl? To me, that is the REAL question.

The Duke football brand is like the ND or USC basketball brand. It's not going to draw TV ratings or attendance by itself, and we don't have the offense like we did in 2012-2015 to make up for it. We'll go bowling with another win simply because the ACC isn't likely to fill all its slots.

DDDuke
10-23-2018, 01:03 PM
College Football News says Music City Bowl versus Tennessee:

https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/10/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-8

The Sporting News says Camping World Bowl versus TCU:

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/college-football-2018-19-bowl-projections-week-8-rankings-playoff-picks-notre-dame-alabama-clemson-ohio-state/4ukl83s782qi12hjw6cyvmz08

ESPN says Pinstripe Bowl versus Wisconsin or Belk Bowl versus Tennessee:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/13968797/college-football-bowl-projections-week-8

This ESPN link actually relates to week 8 of the 2015 season, not this season---hence the projections about GT and UNCheat. Here is the link to ESPN's current projections: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25044587/college-football-bowl-projections-week-8. Nevada in the Quick Lane, or Mississippi State in the Belk.

This set of projections underscores the problems websites face when they pump new projections out every week. This week's ESPN projection from Mitch Sherman has us returning to the Quick Lane bowl for the second straight year, which seems unlikely. Making matters worse, though, Sherman projects that BC will play in the Military Bowl -- and in the Independence Bowl. He clearly messed up the Tier 2 ACC bowls.

And while I question some of Jerry Palm's logic, his slating of GT in a bowl isn't quite as crazy as it sounds. In the main article before the jump to his projections (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-bowl-projections-michigan-enters-college-football-playoff-as-ohio-state-flops-out/), he explains that GT is among the five teams that he thinks will make a bowl with a 5-7 record, based on their APR. (He also slots in WF and Pitt as 5-7 teams.) I think it's possible that GT can win 2 of 3 from VT, UVA, and UNCheat -- or at least that's what Mrs. DDDuke, a GT alum, keeps telling me.

A final thought: Unless Coach Cut turns down a bowl invitation with a 5-7 record, there's a pretty good chance that we're bowl eligible already. Many (most?) prognosticators think that there won't be enough 6-6 and better teams to fill every bowl, and our APR is 5th overall. Of the teams ahead of us (Northwestern, Air Force, Vanderbilt, Navy), Navy seems unlikely to get to 5-7, Air Force also has an uphill battle, and Northwestern should get to 6 wins.

MarkD83
10-23-2018, 01:25 PM
A final thought: Unless Coach Cut turns down a bowl invitation with a 5-7 record, there's a pretty good chance that we're bowl eligible already. Many (most?) prognosticators think that there won't be enough 6-6 and better teams to fill every bowl, and our APR is 5th overall. Of the teams ahead of us (Northwestern, Air Force, Vanderbilt, Navy), Navy seems unlikely to get to 5-7, Air Force also has an uphill battle, and Northwestern should get to 6 wins.

If Duke Fball ends with only 5 wins that means a loss to unc and that should automatically disqualify us from a bowl game....

arnie
10-23-2018, 02:15 PM
If Duke Fball ends with only 5 wins that means a loss to unc and that should automatically disqualify us from a bowl game...

To go 5-7, we would need to lose 6 in a row. Should not go to a crap bowl with that record. Should be a moot point as surely we can beat WF at home.

CameronBlue
10-23-2018, 03:23 PM
To go 5-7, we would need to lose 6 in a row. Should not go to a crap bowl with that record. Should be a moot point as surely we can beat WF at home.

Moot? There is not an insignificant number of fans here and elsewhere who said essentially same thing at least 6 times from 2000 to 2011, a cohort of disbelievers that slowly dwindled as the years rolled on. Duke will be favored, probably heavily favored, but "moot"? Well you are Mr. Chuckletrousers aren't you?

budwom
10-23-2018, 03:37 PM
Moot? There is not an insignificant number of fans here and elsewhere who said essentially same thing at least 6 times from 2000 to 2011, a cohort of disbelievers that slowly dwindled as the years rolled on. Duke will be favored, probably heavily favored, but "moot"? Well you are Mr. Chuckletrousers aren't you?

Indeed, given the current state of things, I don't think we'll be heavily favored against anyone left on our schedule....just wait and see.

Reilly
10-28-2018, 10:08 PM
Duke/MTSU in Independence: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/10/28/18033718/bowl-projections-2018-college-football-playoff-predictions

Duke/UAB in Independence: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Duke/Houston in Independence: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25108435/college-football-bowl-projections-week-9

Duke/Cincy in Independence: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25108435/college-football-bowl-projections-week-9

Duke/Cal in Independence: https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/10/28/bowl-projections-week-10-matchups-schedule-predictions

DDDuke
10-29-2018, 02:27 PM
Duke/MTSU in Independence: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/10/28/18033718/bowl-projections-2018-college-football-playoff-predictions

Duke/UAB in Independence: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Duke/Houston in Independence: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25108435/college-football-bowl-projections-week-9

Duke/Cincy in Independence: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25108435/college-football-bowl-projections-week-9

Duke/Cal in Independence: https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/10/28/bowl-projections-week-10-matchups-schedule-predictions

Two more:

Duke/Vandy in Independence: http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/week-10-bowl-projections-lsu-gets-chance-to-move-into-playoff-position/18r1yp90vwwo616wurru99soxv

Duke/Texas A&M in Music City: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gridiron-365/os-sp-college-football-bowl-projections-2018-htmlstory.html

Both of these appear to be based on some dubious assumptions -- I can't see NCSU dropping to the Military Bowl or Miami dropping to the Quick Lane Bowl -- but there they are, for whatever they're worth.

budwom
10-29-2018, 04:03 PM
seriously, the more relevant question now is bowl yes or no, not which bowl. I fear we're going to be 5-6 going into the Wake tiff...

devildeac
10-29-2018, 04:17 PM
seriously, the more relevant question now is bowl yes or no, not which bowl. I fear we're going to be 5-6 going into the Wake tiff...

...and very likely after getting woodshedded in Death Valley. :eek:

But, then again, there's always:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=always+look+on+the+bright+side+of+life%2c +spamalot&view=detail&mid=079E0A26C7EDCFCEF73E079E0A26C7EDCFCEF73E&FORM=VIRE

duke2x
10-29-2018, 04:52 PM
seriously, the more relevant question now is bowl yes or no, not which bowl. I fear we're going to be 5-6 going into the Wake tiff...

Using 4-4 as eligible today, the ACC has 12 teams for 10 guaranteed spots right now. FSU is unlikely to win 6, making Duke/Wake a potential bowl elimination game--winner goes to the abyss of Duke athletics or to a Whataburger in DFW.

hallcity
10-29-2018, 05:12 PM
Using 4-4 as eligible today, the ACC has 12 teams for 10 guaranteed spots right now. FSU is unlikely to win 6, making Duke/Wake a potential bowl elimination game--winner goes to the abyss of Duke athletics or to a Whataburger in DFW.

Duke is likely to get in with 5 wins. We'd all prefer more wins than that but that's probably all it takes.

YmoBeThere
10-29-2018, 08:15 PM
a Whataburger in DFW.

I really like the honey butter chicken biscuit. I'm certain it is a very healthy part of a balanced diet.

HereBeforeCoachK
10-29-2018, 08:55 PM
Duke is likely to get in with 5 wins. We'd all prefer more wins than that but that's probably all it takes.

...and Cut would accept it too I think.......he's big on the extra few weeks of practice bowl teams get.

OldPhiKap
11-01-2018, 05:53 PM
I hope we are not in the ACC version of this:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilweMV4mwOo&feature=youtu.be

BandAlum83
11-01-2018, 06:14 PM
I hope we are not in the ACC version of this:

https://youtu.be/ilweMV4mwOo

That's pretty darn funny!

OldPhiKap
11-01-2018, 06:47 PM
That's pretty darn funny!

SEC Shorts does a really funny video every week. Worth checking out.

Here are their mid-season report cards:

https://youtu.be/cjv4uo4i5ao

arnie
11-01-2018, 07:12 PM
SEC Shorts does a really funny video every week. Worth checking out.

Here are their mid-season report cards:

https://youtu.be/cjv4uo4i5ao

These are great and not even close to politically correct (see Auburn). Can’t imagine Swofford allowing this.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-01-2018, 08:11 PM
These are great and not even close to politically correct (see Auburn). Can’t imagine Swofford allowing this.

Does the SEC "allow it" - or is SEC Shorts just an independent YouTube Channel? I don't know....just asking. AT first glance, I'm not sure it is officially sanctioned by the conference. You know, we could do a DBR version of ACC Shorts....

OldPhiKap
11-01-2018, 08:24 PM
I’m sure it is wholly unsanctioned.

Devil in the Blue Dress
11-01-2018, 08:27 PM
I’m sure it is wholly unsanctioned.

The same company does indeed produce a variety of clever videos extending beyond the SEC.

Devil in the Blue Dress
11-01-2018, 08:33 PM
Another SEC Shorts production: this time The Nick Saban Coach Rehabilitation Clinic https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TepQfqURyY

MarkD83
11-03-2018, 11:54 PM
All the games this weekend are not complete so I will put together the longer list tomorrow but for now here is the important list:

Who's eligible:

DUKE

Who has been eliminated

unc

CameronBornAndBred
11-04-2018, 12:52 AM
Now I can pay attention to this thread again. Not ashamed to say I have been avoiding it the last two weeks.

MarkD83
11-04-2018, 10:13 AM
80 teams play in bowl games and 130 teams are in the FBS. Six wins are needed to be eligible so 7 losses and a team is mathematically eliminated.

A little different list this week.

There are 78 teams with 5 or more wins so the 80 that make the bowls is almost set, so I will list those teams.
There are also 34 teams with 6 or more losses and I will list those teams.
I will skip the list of 5 losses teams since some of them also have 5 wins so they are on the "bubble".

5 wins or greater 78 teams
Teams with 6 or more wins (49)
2Clemson Tigers
4Notre Dame Fighting Irish
1Alabama Crimson Tide
12UCF Knights
Cincinnati Bearcats
7Oklahoma Sooners
5Michigan Wolverines
10Ohio State Buckeyes
UAB Blazers
Buffalo Bulls
Utah State Aggies
23Fresno State Bulldogs
8Washington State Cougars
6Georgia Bulldogs
13West Virginia Mountaineers
South Florida Bulls
Houston Cougars
22Boston College Eagles
19Syracuse Orange
North Texas Mean Green
Army Knights
Boise State Broncos
San Diego State Aztecs
9Kentucky Wildcats
3LSU Tigers
Troy Trojans
Georgia Southern Eagles
Washington Huskies
21NC State Wolfpack
Appalachian State Mountaineers
25Virginia Cavaliers
Duke Blue Devils
17Texas Longhorns
Michigan State Spartans
14Penn State Nittany Lions
Wisconsin Badgers
16Iowa Hawkeyes
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Florida Intl Golden Panthers
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Ohio Bobcats
Northern Illinois Huskies
Oregon Ducks
15Utah Utes
11Florida Gators
Auburn Tigers
18Mississippi State Bulldogs
Western Michigan Broncos
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Teams that have 5 wins (29)
24Iowa State Cyclones
Marshall Thundering Herd
South Carolina Gamecocks
Temple Owls
Memphis Tigers
Pittsburgh Panthers
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Miami Hurricanes
Baylor Bears
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Maryland Terrapins
Northwestern Wildcats
Purdue Boilermakers
Toledo Rockets
Nevada Wolf Pack
Stanford Cardinal
California Golden Bears
USC Trojans
Arizona State Sun Devils
Colorado Buffaloes
Missouri Tigers
20Texas A&M Aggies
Ole Miss Rebels
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
UL Monroe Warhawks
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Arizona Wildcats


6 losses or more 34 teams
Teams with 6 losses (11)
UMass Minutemen
Wyoming Cowboys
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats
UTSA Roadrunners
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Colorado State Rams
Air Force Falcons
New Mexico Lobos
Texas State Bobcats
East Carolina Pirates

Teams with 7 or > losses (23)
New Mexico State Aggies
Ball State Cardinals
Navy Midshipmen
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Louisville Cardinals
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Old Dominion Monarchs
Kent State Golden Flashes
UNLV Rebels
Oregon State Beavers
UCLA Bruins
Arkansas Razorbacks
Georgia State Panthers
South Alabama Jaguars
North Carolina Tar Heels
UConn Huskies
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
UTEP Miners
Bowling Green Falcons
San Jose State Spartans
Rice Owls
Central Michigan Chippewas

OldPhiKap
11-04-2018, 10:19 AM
80 teams play in bowl games and 130 teams are in the FBS. Six wins are needed to be eligible so 7 losses and a team is mathematically eliminated.

/snip/


Thanks for providing these all season, MarkD!

There is a thread on IC as to whether they should schedule a replacement game for the cancelled storm game, because if they get to 5-7 they may still gobowling. Seriously.

There is another thread arguing that they should bring back Mack and lower the admission requirements in order to recruit better players.

Good times.

CameronBornAndBred
11-04-2018, 10:23 AM
There is a thread on IC as to whether they should schedule a replacement game for the cancelled storm game, because if they get to 5-7 they may still gobowling. Seriously.


Let's put that debate to rest this Saturday.

Bob Green
11-04-2018, 11:05 AM
Duke vs BYU in the Belk Bowl:

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Yea, I know, everyone hates Jerry Palm but his predictions are one of the first ones updated on Sunday. My main objective for today is to not post any links from 2015 like I did last week. :o

Bob Green
11-04-2018, 11:48 AM
Sports Illustrated projects South Carolina vs Duke in the Belk Bowl:

https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/11/04/bowl-projections-week-11-playoff-schedule-rankings

duke2x
11-04-2018, 11:53 AM
I think you can generalize our fortunes to the following:

9-3 (5-3): Tier 2. I know we aren't beating Clemson, but there is a chance.
8-4 (4-4): Tier 2 or Military.
7-5 (3-5): Independence over Miltary or Tampa/Dallas.
6-6 (2-6): Tampa/Dallas over Independence.

Tier 2 is always fluid, but I think you can almost Sharpie Syracuse into the Pinstripe.

arnie
11-04-2018, 12:00 PM
Thanks for providing these all season, MarkD!

There is a thread on IC as to whether they should schedule a replacement game for the cancelled storm game, because if they get to 5-7 they may still gobowling. Seriously.

There is another thread arguing that they should bring back Mack and lower the admission requirements in order to recruit better players.

Good times.

UNCheat Mission Statement: “How low can we go”

HereBeforeCoachK
11-04-2018, 01:14 PM
Sports Illustrated projects South Carolina vs Duke in the Belk Bowl:

https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/11/04/bowl-projections-week-11-playoff-schedule-rankings

There would be 50,000 Gamecock fans in Charlotte if not more. The stadium is closer to SC's campus and Rock Hill is filled with Gamecocks. It would be a road game, which of course is good for Duke. And FWIW, the SC-Ole Miss game was one of the most exciting games yesterday (after WVU Texas).

MarkD83
11-04-2018, 02:46 PM
Thanks for providing these all season, MarkD!

There is a thread on IC as to whether they should schedule a replacement game for the cancelled storm game, because if they get to 5-7 they may still gobowling. Seriously.

There is another thread arguing that they should bring back Mack and lower the admission requirements in order to recruit better players.

Good times.

Two problems with the discussion on IC. First there may be 80 teams with 6 wins and second the 5-7 teams that get in have to be top academic schools

MarkD83
11-04-2018, 03:19 PM
Two problems with the discussion on IC. First there may be 80 teams with 6 wins and second the 5-7 teams that get in have to be top academic schools

To further clarify, on the NCAA list of average APR ending with the 2016-17 season, unc football has an avg APR of 960, which is tied for 151st on the list. The list does include FBS and FBC teams. So there is no way unc is on the short list of top APR teams. BTW, on the same list Duke's avg APR is 992, which is tied for 8th.

https://web3.ncaa.org/aprsearch/aprsearch

75Crazie
11-04-2018, 04:03 PM
Back when the uNC academic fraud investigations were going full-tilt and PP was (justifiably) frothing at the mouth, there was a lot of talk about uNC reps being instrumental in getting the APR checks institutionalized by the NCAA. Of course, the hypocritical aspect of that was that the Carolina fake-class scheme was invisible to APR measurements because of the worthless diplomas being "earned" by the basketball players, and later by the football players. I do not know if that claim (being behind the APR process) was actually true, but if it was then there is no little satisfaction to be gained now by the dismal results of that process being applied today to that "school".

rocketeli
11-04-2018, 04:10 PM
Thanks for providing these all season, MarkD!

There is a thread on IC as to whether they should schedule a replacement game for the cancelled storm game, because if they get to 5-7 they may still gobowling. Seriously.

There is another thread arguing that they should bring back Mack and lower the admission requirements in order to recruit better players.

Good times.

I can't see them picking up any ground lowering admissions standards. They have very little room to move in that direction.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-04-2018, 05:35 PM
I can't see them picking up any ground lowering admissions standards. They have very little room to move in that direction.

...wouldn't they need a shovel to lower them more?

wilson
11-04-2018, 06:12 PM
This week, the Worldwide Leader is pretty sure we'll be playing Missouri in our bowl (http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25176855/college-football-bowl-projections-week-10), but one person says in Charlotte for the Belk Bowl and the other says in Nashville for the Music City Bowl.

Reilly
11-04-2018, 06:16 PM
Duke/UAB in Independence: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gridiron-365/os-sp-college-football-bowl-projections-2018-htmlstory.html

Duke/South Carolina in Charlotte would be about 14,000x better.

jimsumner
11-04-2018, 06:16 PM
Based on the season so far, we should expect Duke to beat favored Clemson on the road and lose at home to underdogs UNC and Wake Forest.

Where will that put Duke?

BandAlum83
11-04-2018, 06:19 PM
Based on the season so far, we should expect Duke to beat favored Clemson on the road and lose at home to underdogs UNC and Wake Forest.

Where will that put Duke?

At a very head-scratching 7-5 record.

Reilly
11-04-2018, 06:36 PM
The ACC selection order: http://www.theacc.com/sports/2018/7/27/FB_0727180307.aspx

ACC Bowl Selection Process
College Football Playoff (four teams) [ND; Clemson]
The Capital One Orange Bowl and the Goodyear Cotton Bowl are national semifinal sites for the 2018 season. There is no limit on how many teams from one conference can appear in the CFP.

ACC Champion - Top Four CFP Ranking [ND; Clemson]
If the ACC Champion is in the top four of the final CFP rankings, it will play in one of the national semifinal games. Additional ACC teams could also be selected for the CFP, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl or PlayStation Fiesta Bowl as at-large representatives.

ACC Champion - Not In Top Four CFP Ranking [N/A]
If the ACC Champion is not in the top four of the final CFP rankings, it will appear in either the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl or the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl. Additional ACC teams could also be selected for the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl or PlayStation Fiesta Bowl as at-large representatives.

Camping World Bowl [BC/SYR winner]
The Camping World Bowl has the first pick of an ACC team after the CFP and New Year’s Six Bowls are filled.

Tier One Bowls (all equal selection status)
Belk Bowl
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl or
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl [NCSU]
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Hyundai Sun Bowl [B][Pitt]
Additional Bowls
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
Walk-On’s Independence Bowl
Quick Lane Bowl
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl or Heart of Dallas Bowl

Secondary*
Birmingham Bowl
*If not filled by other conferences and additional ACC teams are available.

[U]Even if we finish 8-4, we may be shut out of the tier 1 bowls ...

ND 9-0 ... FSU ...Syr ... @SoCal
Clemson 9-0 (6-0) ... @BC ... Duke ... SoCar

BC 7-2 (4-1) ... Clemson ... @FSU ... Syr
Syr 7-2 (4-2) ... L'ville ... @ND ... @BC

NCSU 6-2 (3-2) ... WFU ... @L'ville ... @UNC ... ECU (maybe)

UVa 6-3 (4-2) ... Liberty ... @GT ... @VT
Duke 6-3 (2-3) ... UNC ... @Clemson ... WFU

===============================================

Pitt 5-4 (4-1) ... VT ... @WFU ... @Mia
GT 5-4 (3-3) ... Mia ... UVa ... @UGA
Mia 5-4 (2-3) ... @GT ... @VT ... Pitt

VT 4-4 (3-2) ...@Pitt ... Mia ... UVa

FSU 4-5 (2-5) ... @ND ... BC ... UF
WFU 4-5 (1-4) ... @ NCSU ... Pitt ... @Duke

===============================================

L'ville 2-7 (0-6) ... @Syr ... NCSU ... KY

UNC 1-7 (1-5) ... @Duke ... WCU ...NCSU

YmoBeThere
11-04-2018, 06:56 PM
Even if we finish 8-4, we may be shut out of the tier 1 bowls ...

Well, I guess we have non other choice than to go 9-3.

DDDuke
11-05-2018, 03:01 PM
Duke/Stanford in Independence: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/11/4/18060696/bowl-projections-2018-college-football-playoff-predictions


Duke/Toledo in Quick Lane: http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/week-11-bowl-projections-alabama-clemson-remain-at-top-of-playoff-race/1fgk6rduqga7y1rzqqf1q06hg4

DDDuke
11-05-2018, 03:33 PM
An interesting subplot in these projections -- and one that could significantly impact our bowl -- is whether a third ACC-affiliated team can make the New Year's Six bowls. Aside from the 4 playoff spots (presumably including Clemson and Notre Dame right now), there are 3 at-large berths that the ACC is eligible for this year. NC State is in prime position to make a run for one of those spots: They'll be favored in their last four games, and if they run the table, they'll end up 9-2. Projections are split about NCSU's fate: both ESPN analysts project them in the New Year's Six, while most others put them just outside the New Year's Six in Camping World.

BigWayne
11-05-2018, 03:34 PM
NCSU 6-2 (3-2) ... WFU ... @L'ville ... @UNC ... ECU (maybe)

Even if we finish 8-4, we may be shut out of the tier 1 bowls ...



With the loss to Syracuse, NCSU can't beat out Clemson for the ACC championship game, so they will play ECU.

Best bet for Duke improving its bowl position (other than an earthshaking upset of Clemson) is for Syracuse to run the table including an upset of ND.
Assuming ND beats FSU and USC, this would likely put Clemson, Syracuse, and ND in the top 12 for the NY6 bowls, moving the rest of the ACC teams up a slot.

Also, with Louisville and the cheats already bowl ineligible and FSU and Wake knocking on the door, it's looking like the ACC won't be able to fill all their slots.

CameronBornAndBred
11-05-2018, 03:47 PM
Duke/Stanford in Independence: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/11/4/18060696/bowl-projections-2018-college-football-playoff-predictions
Duke/Stanford would be a great bowl.



Duke/Toledo in Quick Lane: http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/week-11-bowl-projections-alabama-clemson-remain-at-top-of-playoff-race/1fgk6rduqga7y1rzqqf1q06hg4
Has that ever happened? Same team going to same bowl twice? (Not counting top tier bowls.)

HereBeforeCoachK
11-05-2018, 04:07 PM
Duke/Stanford in Independence: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/11/4/18060696/bowl-projections-2018-college-football-playoff-predictions


Duke/Toledo in Quick Lane: http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/week-11-bowl-projections-alabama-clemson-remain-at-top-of-playoff-race/1fgk6rduqga7y1rzqqf1q06hg4

Quicklane again? What? Are they assuming an 0-3 finish?

Reilly
11-05-2018, 04:11 PM
... Has that ever happened? Same team going to same bowl twice? (Not counting top tier bowls.)

I believe the relatively-new "tier" system the ACC uses is, in part, to prevent a team/fanbase from going to the same destination in consecutive years. That said, I'm sure a 30-degree Detroit this year would feel like an entirely different city than the 4-degree Motown last year.

BigWayne
11-05-2018, 04:43 PM
I believe the relatively-new "tier" system the ACC uses is, in part, to prevent a team/fanbase from going to the same destination in consecutive years. That said, I'm sure a 30-degree Detroit this year would feel like an entirely different city than the 4-degree Motown last year.

I think you are correct on that point. The ACC however does list the lower tier bowls as being selected by order. I think this is partly to cover the case of when there aren't enough eligible teams.

By today's rankings and your listing, the Quicklane would be slot #10. That would mean Duke would have to be behind all but one of the current four loss teams. If we really finish the season that badly, Quicklane would probably pass on us if they can and we'll get a chance to go to the Bad Boys bowl.

However, with the four four loss teams having four more games between themselves, two against UVA, and one against UGA, it's reasonable to expect at least two of them to have 5 losses. Also, with a perfect storm of Clemson, ND, NCSU, and Syracuse all getting into the top 12 of the CFP, along with FSU and Wake being ineligible, Quicklane would not get an ACC team.

budwom
11-05-2018, 04:46 PM
This week, the Worldwide Leader is pretty sure we'll be playing Missouri in our bowl (http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25176855/college-football-bowl-projections-week-10), but one person says in Charlotte for the Belk Bowl and the other says in Nashville for the Music City Bowl.

I can't imagine why anyone is certain of anything, given that this Duke team could end up anywhere from 6-6 to (realistically) 8-4...Bowlologically speaking, that's a major spread...

devildeac
11-05-2018, 05:13 PM
I can't imagine why anyone is certain of anything, given that this Duke team could end up anywhere from 6-6 to (realistically) 8-4...Bowlologically speaking, that's a major spread...

DBR bowlsterbation, first cousin of rosterbation.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-05-2018, 07:24 PM
I emailed a very good friend of mine, a SC native and a Gamecock alum, the idea that some of the bowl predictions had SC and Duke in the Belk. He laughed it off, thinking SC would "kill Duke" - in his words. He also said Charlotte would be full of SC fans (which is true). I told him good...Duke loves to play in front of big opposing crowds. I conceded that at this point, SC is probably better than Duke, but not by much - and it was reversed a few weeks ago - and it may be reversed again if the match up goes to the Belk Bowl, or any other.

I have ties to SC....have cheered for the Gamecocks often. But that got my blue blood boiling.

budwom
11-06-2018, 07:51 AM
I emailed a very good friend of mine, a SC native and a Gamecock alum, the idea that some of the bowl predictions had SC and Duke in the Belk. He laughed it off, thinking SC would "kill Duke" - in his words. He also said Charlotte would be full of SC fans (which is true). I told him good...Duke loves to play in front of big opposing crowds. I conceded that at this point, SC is probably better than Duke, but not by much - and it was reversed a few weeks ago - and it may be reversed again if the match up goes to the Belk Bowl, or any other.

I have ties to SC...have cheered for the Gamecocks often. But that got my blue blood boiling.

FWIW, Sagarin has Duke and Pimento State as just about equals, PS is #35, Duke #37...I like our chances if if if we have most of our key guys back, e.g. Giles Harris...Pimento State has had 50 years of overestimating their football prowess and importance, it's no surprise they dismiss Duke entirely.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-06-2018, 07:59 AM
FWIW, Sagarin has Duke and Pimento State as just about equals, PS is #35, Duke #37...I like our chances if if if we have most of our key guys back, e.g. Giles Harris...Pimento State has had 50 years of overestimating their football prowess and importance, it's no surprise they dismiss Duke entirely.

I mentioned to him that the computers seemed to have the two teams very close. And as for over estimation, you are right, and I can tell you why. Football at South Carolina home games has a distinctly BIG TIME feel. It has a large and passionate fan base, and Williams Brice is a very cool stadium that gets extremely loud, especially with night games. I have seen games at Williams Brice where the noise and energy was off the charts. There is nothing in the state of SC like UNC at Cameron...but there is nothing in the rest of the ACC like Clemson at SC, or vice versa. Nothing close. Carter Finley can rock some, as can VT....but still, not the same class.

As I've mentioned several times, I have deep ties to both Duke and SC, and I hate it when they play each other, which thankfully is rare. That said, if the Gamecock fans I still keep in touch are going to be so cocky about it, it'll make my allegiances easy to determine.

OldPhiKap
11-06-2018, 08:11 AM
I mentioned to him that the computers seemed to have the two teams very close. And as for over estimation, you are right, and I can tell you why. Football at South Carolina home games has a distinctly BIG TIME feel. It has a large and passionate fan base, and Williams Brice is a very cool stadium that gets extremely loud, especially with night games. I have seen games at Williams Brice where the noise and energy was off the charts. There is nothing in the state of SC like UNC at Cameron...but there is nothing in the rest of the ACC like Clemson at SC, or vice versa. Nothing close. Carter Finley can rock some, as can VT...but still, not the same class.

As I've mentioned several times, I have deep ties to both Duke and SC, and I hate it when they play each other, which thankfully is rare. That said, if the Gamecock fans I still keep in touch are going to be so cocky about it, it'll make my allegiances easy to determine.

“The ‘Cocks ain’t a’playin’ ‘til the stands start a’swayin’”

Agree on Williams Brice and Death Valley. A whole different level. USCar fans are passionate and loyal despite being on the tail end of the SEC more years than not.

I want no part of USCar in Charlotte. Might as well play in Columbia and save me another hour of driving.

budwom
11-06-2018, 08:15 AM
I mentioned to him that the computers seemed to have the two teams very close. And as for over estimation, you are right, and I can tell you why. Football at South Carolina home games has a distinctly BIG TIME feel. It has a large and passionate fan base, and Williams Brice is a very cool stadium that gets extremely loud, especially with night games. I have seen games at Williams Brice where the noise and energy was off the charts. There is nothing in the state of SC like UNC at Cameron...but there is nothing in the rest of the ACC like Clemson at SC, or vice versa. Nothing close. Carter Finley can rock some, as can VT...but still, not the same class.

As I've mentioned several times, I have deep ties to both Duke and SC, and I hate it when they play each other, which thankfully is rare. That said, if the Gamecock fans I still keep in touch are going to be so cocky about it, it'll make my allegiances easy to determine.

I know what you're saying. I wrote for The Chronicle, and my first visit to SC was an eye opener...add to that the fact that SC had a MAJOR beef with Duke back then (1970 or so) as they were convinced we blew the whistle
on them regarding a dubious recruitment . They utterly despised Duke, and that's not an exaggeration...at that time I had never heard that much screaming and swearing during a game, nothing had come close.

As others on this board know from that era, the entire Frank McGuire SC hoops thing was amazing...they were a bruising, aggressive (and skilled ) bunch, and you thought every game might produce a brawl (those who witnessed this know I'm not exaggerating). Since that time we've had all sorts of big, loud, wonderful games in Cameron, but we have never (and probably will never) have the aura of animosity hanging over every game like we did with SC (I believe unc had the same sort of relationship). SC was kind of like the olde Detroit Pistons in that regard...(John Roche, Bobby Cremins, Tom Owens, Tom Riker, John The Enforcer Ribock)...

Here's another sign of those times: since I was a visiting writer, it was customary the night before for the SC sports info director to take us out to dinner..eye opener for me as a yankee, the SID showed up with a mini suitcase at the nice restaurant...it was a mobile booze kit since there was no liquor by the drink back then, prehistoric era...had several kinds of bourbon strapped in there, I had never seen anything like that.

So the conversation turned to newcomer Kevin Joyce, white kid from up North like most of McGuire's recruits...we asked about him (Frank Dascenzo of the Sun was there among a few other scribes) and the
South Carolina SID (official rep of the university, of course) opined: "He can really jump, I believe he's got some n—blood in him." Goood friggin' grief, we were stunned...kind of colored my view of SC as perhaps you can tell.

Reilly
11-12-2018, 07:32 AM
Palm/CBS: Duke/Stanford in El Paso: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

SBNation: Duke/Stanford in Shreveport: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/11/11/18083932/bowl-projections-game-predictions-college-football-playoff

espn: Duke/Purdue in NYC: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25244994/college-football-bowl-projections-week-11

espn: Duke/Cincinnati in Annapolis: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25244994/college-football-bowl-projections-week-11

Orlando: Duke/UAB in Shreveport: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gridiron-365/os-sp-college-football-bowl-projections-2018-htmlstory.html

247: Duke/Purdue in NYC: https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-bowl-projections-after-Week-11-124591879/#124591879_4

Athlon: Duke/LaTech in Shreveport: https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-bowl-projections-week-11-2018

SI: Duke/Stanford in Shreveport: https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/11/11/bowl-projections-week-11-tie-ins-schedule

Rogue
11-12-2018, 07:37 AM
I know what you're saying. I wrote for The Chronicle, and my first visit to SC was an eye opener...add to that the fact that SC had a MAJOR beef with Duke back then (1970 or so) as they were convinced we blew the whistle
on them regarding a dubious recruitment . They utterly despised Duke, and that's not an exaggeration...at that time I had never heard that much screaming and swearing during a game, nothing had come close.

As others on this board know from that era, the entire Frank McGuire SC hoops thing was amazing...they were a bruising, aggressive (and skilled ) bunch, and you thought every game might produce a brawl (those who witnessed this know I'm not exaggerating). Since that time we've had all sorts of big, loud, wonderful games in Cameron, but we have never (and probably will never) have the aura of animosity hanging over every game like we did with SC (I believe unc had the same sort of relationship). SC was kind of like the olde Detroit Pistons in that regard...(John Roche, Bobby Cremins, Tom Owens, Tom Riker, John The Enforcer Ribock)...

Here's another sign of those times: since I was a visiting writer, it was customary the night before for the SC sports info director to take us out to dinner..eye opener for me as a yankee, the SID showed up with a mini suitcase at the nice restaurant...it was a mobile booze kit since there was no liquor by the drink back then, prehistoric era...had several kinds of bourbon strapped in there, I had never seen anything like that.

So the conversation turned to newcomer Kevin Joyce, white kid from up North like most of McGuire's recruits...we asked about him (Frank Dascenzo of the Sun was there among a few other scribes) and the
South Carolina SID (official rep of the university, of course) opined: "He can really jump, I believe he's got some n—blood in him." Goood friggin' grief, we were stunned...kind of colored my view of SC as perhaps you can tell.


As I recall, SC was mad about not being able to recruit Mike Grosso . At the time, Duke was blamed at turning them in because Mike Grosso didn't have the minimum SAT score for the ACC ( I think it could be 800.. some have said it was 700 ) Later, I think it was discovered that the cheats turned Grosso in as not being able to qualify. Both Duke and UNC wanted Grosso also, but his scores didn't qualify.

USC's John Ribock was the enforcer. I recall reading an article on the USC team and Ribock was quoted saying " I like to watch TV , get a gallon of water and just watch TV lol.. What kind of person in 1970 sits and drinks a gallon of water ..

Kevin Joyce was a leaper too. He out jumped 6'11" Lee Deadman of UNC to allow USC their ACC Championship..

Curious.. does anyone recall if Clempson and Maryland were also considering leaving the ACC due to the Big 4 basically running the conference ? Yet SC was the only one to pull the trigger . I've heard this from SC fans

budwom
11-12-2018, 07:53 AM
As I recall, SC was mad about not being able to recruit Mike Grosso . At the time, Duke was blamed at turning them in because Mike Grosso didn't have the minimum SAT score for the ACC ( I think it could be 800.. some have said it was 700 ) Later, I think it was discovered that the cheats turned Grosso in as not being able to qualify. Both Duke and UNC wanted Grosso also, but his scores didn't qualify.

USC's John Ribock was the enforcer. I recall reading an article on the USC team and Ribock was quoted saying " I like to watch TV , get a gallon of water and just watch TV lol.. What kind of person in 1970 sits and drinks a gallon of water ..

Kevin Joyce was a leaper too. He out jumped 6'11" Lee Deadman of UNC to allow USC their ACC Championship..

Curious.. does anyone recall if Clempson and Maryland were also considering leaving the ACC due to the Big 4 basically running the conference ? Yet SC was the only one to pull the trigger . I've heard this from SC fans

good memory on Grosso, he was the guy. Man, those Gamecock people were bitter about that, I'd never seen so many adults screaming obscenities at a visiting football team (until years later I went to see NFL games
with the Jets and Pats as the home teams)...

I was pretty tuned in to the ACC back then and do not think Merlin or Clempson wanted to leave...for sure they did have Big Four resentment, but the finances back then (with minimal TV money) were way different, no particular reason to leave.
Pimento State only left because Paul Dietzel had football delusions of grandeur...Frank McGuire did not share those delusions...

Reilly
11-12-2018, 08:52 AM
good memory on Grosso, he was the guy. ...

Info on Grosso in hs: http://www.raritan-online.com/b65-grosso.htm

Reilly
11-12-2018, 09:38 AM
nj.com: Duke/UAB in Shreveport: https://www.nj.com/expo/sports/erry-2018/11/9a6d7ffb5f3268/college-football-bowl-projecti.html

OldPhiKap
11-12-2018, 10:43 AM
Is bowl selection day Sunday, December 2nd?

CrazyNotCrazie
11-12-2018, 11:14 AM
Syracuse likes to market itself as New York’s college football team and has a ton of alums in the NYC area. I have a few close friends here who went there who have greatly increased their interest in the team as the season has progressed. They would obviously prefer a higher tier of bowl but if they fell to that level, there would be a lot of mutual interest between them and the Pinstripe Bowl.

Reilly
11-12-2018, 11:29 AM
... a lot of mutual interest between them and the Pinstripe Bowl.

Maybe lessened a bit given Syr is playing ND this weekend at Yankee Stadium? NIU was not excited to go yet again to Detroit last year, and it showed (and they paid for it).

BigWayne
11-12-2018, 11:31 AM
Is bowl selection day Sunday, December 2nd?

Yes. The final CFP rankings get announced and it all runs downhill after that.

Reilly
11-12-2018, 11:34 AM
Is bowl selection day Sunday, December 2nd?

Believe that's right (for the CFP, at least) -- see p. 26 of their guide: https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/collegefootballplayoff.sidearmsports.com/documents/2018/9/14/CFP_2018_19_HISTORICAL_MEDIA_GUIDE__FINAL_091218.p df


And espn says it'll be at noon on 12/2: https://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2018/10/whos-in-college-football-playoff-selection-committee-weekly-rankings-begin-on-espn/

BigWayne
11-12-2018, 11:44 AM
So, root for
... ND over Syracuse

Syracuse over ND can be a good thing for us.

Even a one loss ND will be in one of the top 6 bowls and thus not using up an ACC bowl slot.
Syracuse beating ND and BC would put them in a top 6 bowl and move everybody else up one slot in the ACC list.

Reilly
11-12-2018, 11:54 AM
Syracuse over ND can be a good thing for us.

Even a one loss ND will be in one of the top 6 bowls and thus not using up an ACC bowl slot.
Syracuse beating ND and BC would put them in a top 6 bowl and move everybody else up one slot in the ACC list.

That's some higher level, bowl math right there.

Is Syracuse really top 12 material? How many SEC teams will be there? I still cannot believe the amount of love they are getting. Check out their computer rank (25) versus their AP rank (12) ... same with BC (42 computer; 22 AP) .... a real disconnect given most of the other computer/AP rankings seem to relate more closely.

See: Alabama: 1 to 1; Okla 5 to 6; UCF 10 to 11; Fresno 15 to unranked (disconnect); Utah State 20 to 14; Utah 24 to 21.

Cincy at +13 (32 computer to 19 in AP) is the only other school that rivals Syracuse and BC in getting so much human love as compared to computer love (Syr is +13; BC is +20).

Reilly
11-12-2018, 12:06 PM
I guess we want Duke to win out and these other teams to lose as many as possible:

Syr 8-2 (5-2) ... @ND ... @BC

BC 7-3 (4-2) ... @FSU ... Syr
UVa 7-3 (4-2) ... @GT ... @VT
Duke 7-3 (3-3) ... @Clemson ... WFU

NCSU 6-3 (3-3) ... @L'ville ... @UNC ... ECU

Pitt 6-4 (5-1) ... @WFU ... @Mia

Duke is a 27.5 point underdog.

So, root for
... ND over Syracuse [ND favored by 9.5 over Syracuse]
... FSU over BC [no line yet]
... GT over UVA [GT favored by 6.5]
... VT over UVA
... L'ville over NCSU [NCSU favored by 14.5 over L'ville]
... UNC over NCSU [ugh - but if it means Duke to Nashville against P5 rather than to Shreveport against non-P5, I'd hope for the State loss*]
... ECU over NCSU
... WFU over Pitt [Pitt favored by 6 over WFU]
... Mia over Pitt

* - Per the CFB rooting moral principle of double effect, this is OK (maybe). The principle of double effect in the moral tradition in CFB rooting teaches that one may perform a good CFB rooting action even if it is foreseen that a bad effect will arise only if four conditions are met: 1) The act itself must be good. 2) The only thing that one can intend is the good act, not the foreseen but unintended bad effect. 3) The good effect cannot arise from the bad effect; otherwise, one would do evil to achieve good. 4) The unintended but foreseen bad effect cannot be disproportionate to the good being performed. [#3 and #4 get a little shaky.]

Acymetric
11-12-2018, 12:42 PM
I guess we want Duke to win out and these other teams to lose as many as possible:

Syr 8-2 (5-2) ... @ND ... @BC

BC 7-3 (4-2) ... @FSU ... Syr
UVa 7-3 (4-2) ... @GT ... @VT
Duke 7-3 (3-3) ... @Clemson ... WFU

NCSU 6-3 (3-3) ... @L'ville ... @UNC ... ECU

Pitt 6-4 (5-1) ... @WFU ... @Mia

Duke is a 27.5 point underdog.

So, root for
... ND over Syracuse [ND favored by 9.5 over Syracuse]
... FSU over BC [no line yet]
... GT over UVA [GT favored by 6.5]
... VT over UVA
... L'ville over NCSU [NCSU favored by 14.5 over L'ville]
... UNC over NCSU [ugh - but if it means Duke to Nashville against P5 rather than to Shreveport against non-P5, I'd hope for the State loss*]
... ECU over NCSU
... WFU over Pitt [Pitt favored by 6 over WFU]
... Mia over Pitt

* - Per the CFB rooting moral principle of double effect, this is OK (maybe). The principle of double effect in the moral tradition in CFB rooting teaches that one may perform a good CFB rooting action even if it is foreseen that a bad effect will arise only if four conditions are met: 1) The act itself must be good. 2) The only thing that one can intend is the good act, not the foreseen but unintended bad effect. 3) The good effect cannot arise from the bad effect; otherwise, one would do evil to achieve good. 4) The unintended but foreseen bad effect cannot be disproportionate to the good being performed. [#3 and #4 get a little shaky.]

Sorry, rooting for unc is always unacceptable. You can be happy they won in exactly one scenario: it means the advance to play (and lose to) us in the ACC tournament (I always want that third crack at them) but even then you should not be actively rooting for them during that game.

I'm also not even sure I agree that NCSU getting beaten helps us, I would guess they get taken before us in the bowl selection process regardless, in which case rooting for unc would not only be embarrassing, but also useless. Let the bowl chips fall where they may, I say, and whatever we get is what we earned.

CameronBornAndBred
11-12-2018, 12:47 PM
... WFU over Pitt [Pitt favored by 6 over WFU]


I am pulling for Wake simply because I don't want us to be a needed victory to go bowling like they were for us last year. (And I would like to see Wake go bowling.)

BigWayne
11-12-2018, 03:19 PM
That's some higher level, bowl math right there.

Is Syracuse really top 12 material? How many SEC teams will be there? I still cannot believe the amount of love they are getting. Check out their computer rank (25) versus their AP rank (12) ... same with BC (42 computer; 22 AP) ... a real disconnect given most of the other computer/AP rankings seem to relate more closely.

See: Alabama: 1 to 1; Okla 5 to 6; UCF 10 to 11; Fresno 15 to unranked (disconnect); Utah State 20 to 14; Utah 24 to 21.

Cincy at +13 (32 computer to 19 in AP) is the only other school that rivals Syracuse and BC in getting so much human love as compared to computer love (Syr is +13; BC is +20).

I don't know if they are really top 12 material, just going by the ranking that matters, which is the one the CFP puts out. They had Syracuse at #13 last week, behind Kentucky at #11. Kentucky lost to 5-5 Tennessee and will almost certainly drop down behind Syracuse this week.

If Syracuse beats ND, they will at worst hold their position in the top 12 and move up some if another team in the 6-11 range loses.
Then they just need to beat BC to avoid falling out.

NC State had essentially the same opportunity before laying an egg against Wake as they were #14 in last week's CFP.

Reilly
11-12-2018, 04:22 PM
Here is the CFP committee top 25 (released last week) and then those teams' current computer (SRS) ranking. Realize KY and NCSU will fall in tomorrow CFP ranking.

Where there is a disconnect of 8 or more places, the team is in bold.

Do you think the humans got it right, or the computers?

Sad for Duke, some of the teams that the humans most value that the computers do not -- Syracuse and BC and NCSU -- are in direct competition with Duke for a bowl bid.

1 University of Alabama is #1 in SRS
2 Clemson University is #4 in SRS
3 University of Notre Dame is #6 in SRS
4 University of Michigan is #3 in SRS
5 University of Georgia is #2 in SRS
6 University of Oklahoma is #5 in SRS
7 Louisiana State University is #7 in SRS
8 Washington State University is #17 in SRS
9 West Virginia University is #8 in SRS
10 Ohio State University is #9 in SRS
11 University of Kentucky is #19 in SRS
12 University of Central Florida is #10 in SRS
13 Syracuse University is #25 in SRS
14 North Carolina State University is #41 in SRS
15 University of Florida is #18 in SRS
16 Mississippi State University is #16 in SRS
17 Boston College is #42 in SRS
18 Michigan State University is #26 in SRS
19 University of Texas is #22 in SRS
20 Penn State University is #12 in SRS
21 University of Iowa is #13 in SRS
22 Iowa State University is #14 in SRS
23 Fresno State is #15 in SRS
24 Auburn University is #28 in SRS
25 University of Washington is #29 in SRS

CFP rankings: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx

SRS ratings: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

Acymetric
11-12-2018, 04:28 PM
Here is the CFP committee top 25 (released last week) and then those teams' current computer (SRS) ranking. Realize KY and NCSU will fall in tomorrow CFP ranking.

Where there is a disconnect of 8 or more places, the team is in bold.

Do you think the humans got it right, or the computers?

Sad for Duke, some of the teams that the humans most value that the computers do not -- Syracuse and BC and NCSU -- are in direct competition with Duke for a bowl bid.

1 University of Alabama is #1 in SRS
2 Clemson University is #4 in SRS
3 University of Notre Dame is #6 in SRS
4 University of Michigan is #3 in SRS
5 University of Georgia is #2 in SRS
6 University of Oklahoma is #5 in SRS
7 Louisiana State University is #7 in SRS
8 Washington State University is #17 in SRS
9 West Virginia University is #8 in SRS
10 Ohio State University is #9 in SRS
11 University of Kentucky is #19 in SRS
12 University of Central Florida is #10 in SRS
13 Syracuse University is #25 in SRS
14 North Carolina State University is #41 in SRS
15 University of Florida is #18 in SRS
16 Mississippi State University is #16 in SRS
17 Boston College is #42 in SRS
18 Michigan State University is #26 in SRS
19 University of Texas is #22 in SRS
20 Penn State University is #12 in SRS
21 University of Iowa is #13 in SRS
22 Iowa State University is #14 in SRS
23 Fresno State is #15 in SRS
24 Auburn University is #28 in SRS
25 University of Washington is #29 in SRS

CFP rankings: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx

SRS ratings: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

BC is way too high, I'm not even sure they should be ranked. NC State is too high but should probably be ranked. Don't know enough about Iowa State or Fresno to say if they should be higher.

Pghdukie
11-12-2018, 05:53 PM
With ACC and BIG10 tie ins to Pinstripe Bowl, I'm all in favor of a Duke/Penn St game. Move the start time to 7pm and have a WHITE OUT game. I'm sure both fan bases would enjoy the festive evening! Here's hoping

HereBeforeCoachK
11-12-2018, 06:28 PM
Am I seeing this right? Kentucky gets waxed at Tennessee and doesn't drop a bit?

BigWayne
11-12-2018, 08:25 PM
Here is the CFP committee top 25 (released last week) and then those teams' current computer (SRS) ranking. Realize KY and NCSU will fall in tomorrow CFP ranking.

Where there is a disconnect of 8 or more places, the team is in bold.

Do you think the humans got it right, or the computers?

Sad for Duke, some of the teams that the humans most value that the computers do not -- Syracuse and BC and NCSU -- are in direct competition with Duke for a bowl bid.

1 University of Alabama is #1 in SRS
2 Clemson University is #4 in SRS
3 University of Notre Dame is #6 in SRS
4 University of Michigan is #3 in SRS
5 University of Georgia is #2 in SRS
6 University of Oklahoma is #5 in SRS
7 Louisiana State University is #7 in SRS
8 Washington State University is #17 in SRS
9 West Virginia University is #8 in SRS
10 Ohio State University is #9 in SRS
11 University of Kentucky is #19 in SRS
12 University of Central Florida is #10 in SRS
13 Syracuse University is #25 in SRS
14 North Carolina State University is #41 in SRS
15 University of Florida is #18 in SRS
16 Mississippi State University is #16 in SRS
17 Boston College is #42 in SRS
18 Michigan State University is #26 in SRS
19 University of Texas is #22 in SRS
20 Penn State University is #12 in SRS
21 University of Iowa is #13 in SRS
22 Iowa State University is #14 in SRS
23 Fresno State is #15 in SRS
24 Auburn University is #28 in SRS
25 University of Washington is #29 in SRS

CFP rankings: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx

SRS ratings: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

This list only matters for the top ~12 teams. ACC teams landing in the top 12 is a good thing for Duke as it means they are not competing for ACC contracted bowl slots. Once the top 12 teams are grabbed by the 6 bowls associated with the CFP, then it's back to the league/bowl contracts and historical influences.

Note that the Orange Bowl is a semifinal location this year, so if Clemson is in the top 4, the ACC won't get another slot unless a team makes its way into the top ~12.
Any P5 champion or top of the other 5 group not in top 12 can steal a spot from the top 12 teams. PAC12 champ will be one of these most likely unless WSU wins out.



Am I seeing this right? Kentucky gets waxed at Tennessee and doesn't drop a bit?


The list above is last week's CFP ranking. New one doesn't come out until tomorrow. Kentucky dropped 8 or 9 spots in the polls released yesterday and will certainly drop in the CFP list tomorrow.

Reilly
11-12-2018, 08:46 PM
This list only matters for the top ~12 teams ...

The list, and the AP poll, very much matter for perceived value and perceived pecking order for when the fallible humans in the ACC offices and the "non-profit" bowl committees do the rest-of-the-pack bowl slotting. By then, the narrative is set ... oh, of course BC deserves to go to Orlando or Nashville ...

Tappan Zee Devil
11-12-2018, 09:16 PM
Syracuse likes to market itself as New York’s college football team and has a ton of alums in the NYC area. I have a few close friends here who went there who have greatly increased their interest in the team as the season has progressed. They would obviously prefer a higher tier of bowl but if they fell to that level, there would be a lot of mutual interest between them and the Pinstripe Bowl.

Well - my son is finishing his medical residency in Syracuse - and when we drive up to visit him, it takes about 4 hours (and we are a half hour north of NYC). BC is 45 minutes closer (no New Yorker is going to adopt a Boston school or team, but it gives you a sense of what the distances are). I sense almost no buzz about Syracuse football here.
The problem for NYC is there is no nearby college team for New Yorkers to get excited about. The Big Whatever took Rutgers in order to get into the New York market, but they are completely ignored. I follow Army because I live near them, but most of the City doesn't. New York is a pro town.

MarkD83
11-12-2018, 09:26 PM
Since the vigil thread is closed "Let me ‘splain something in the other thread no, there is too much. let me sum up......"

80 teams play in bowl games and 130 teams are in the FBS. Six wins are needed to be eligible so 7 losses and a team is mathematically eliminated.

There are 65 teams with 6 or more wins and 30 teams with 7 or more losses

There are 22 teams one win away from being eligible.

Teams almost eligible (22) and their remaining schedules

SMU vs Memphis; Tulsa
Tulane vs Houston; Navy
Wake Forest vs Pitt; Duke
Miami (Fla.) vs VT; Pitt
Maryland vs OSU; PSU
Indiana vs Mich; Purdue
Purdue vs Wisc; Indiana
Minnesota vs Northwestern; Wisc
Texas Tech vs Kansas St.; Baylor
Baylor vs TCU; Texas Tech
Oklahoma St. vs WVU; TCU
FAU vs U. North Texas; Charlotte
BYU vs New Mex. St.; Utah
Toledo vs Kent St.; Cent. Mich.
Arizona vs Wsh. State; Ariz. St.
USC vs UCLA; Notre Dame
Colorado vs Utah; Cal
South Carolina vs Chattanoga; Clemson; Akron
Tennessee vs Missouri; Vanderbilt
Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt; Miss. State
Coastal Carolina vs Ga Southern; U.S. Ala.
Louisiana vs U.S. Ala.; U. La-Monroe

Indiana plays Purdue and Texas Tech plays Baylor so two of these teams are definitely in.

There are then teams that play teams that have 7 or more losses so the following teams may win one more

Coastal Carolina; Louisiana; Southern Cal; Toledo; BYU; TN; South Carolina; FAU; SMU; Tulane;

That makes 3 more spots left.....

Reilly
11-12-2018, 09:29 PM
... there is no nearby college team for New Yorkers to get excited about ...

The buzz left NYC CFB when Dave Clawson left Fordham ...

YmoBeThere
11-12-2018, 09:39 PM
Well - my son is finishing his medical residency in Syracuse - and when we drive up to visit him, it takes about 4 hours

Wow, at least with a 4 hour drive here, I can get to Houston(easy drive) or Dallas(probably closer to 4.5)

Independence or Sun are good with me, though I would probably prefer going to Louisiana.

Reilly
11-12-2018, 09:53 PM
... 80 teams play in bowl games and 130 teams are in the FBS ...

Aren't there 39 bowls (78 teams) in FBS ...and then 2 of those 78 play one more time for the championship? I'm not positive but thought that the case this year, though hard to keep up with the comings and goings of bowls (and the name changes!).

CrazyNotCrazie
11-12-2018, 09:54 PM
Well - my son is finishing his medical residency in Syracuse - and when we drive up to visit him, it takes about 4 hours (and we are a half hour north of NYC). BC is 45 minutes closer (no New Yorker is going to adopt a Boston school or team, but it gives you a sense of what the distances are). I sense almost no buzz about Syracuse football here.
The problem for NYC is there is no nearby college team for New Yorkers to get excited about. The Big Whatever took Rutgers in order to get into the New York market, but they are completely ignored. I follow Army because I live near them, but most of the City doesn't. New York is a pro town.

I guess YMMV. Growing up near NY I knew tons of people who went to Syracuse and living in NYC now I am surrounded by Syracuse alums. Syracuse alums are particularly prominent in advertising and PR due to the Newhouse school. A good friend who went there was in Syracuse last weekend and told me there was more buzz around the team than he has seen since he graduated in the 90s.

Also, as I mentioned, for a long time Syracuse has branded itself as NY’s team. You can’t miss the cab tops mentioned in this article. College football is still a very low priority here but I think a lot of Syracuse alums will be at the ND game this weekend and a lot would go to a bowl game, particularly since this is their first decent team in a while.

https://articles.syracuse.com/orangesports/index.ssf/2016/08/the_controversial_and_coveted_new_yorks_college_br anding_effort_lives_on_in_new.amp

Reilly
11-12-2018, 10:05 PM
Sporting News: Duke/Mizzou in Nashville: http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/week-12-bowl-projections-alabama-clemson-notre-dame-michigan-hold-on-to-spots/2bbzeuplc8f712unwb42msupf

CFN: Duke/Auburn in Nashville: https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/11/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-11

MarkD83
11-13-2018, 12:05 AM
Sporting News: Duke/Mizzou in Nashville: http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/week-12-bowl-projections-alabama-clemson-notre-dame-michigan-hold-on-to-spots/2bbzeuplc8f712unwb42msupf

CFN: Duke/Auburn in Nashville: https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/11/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-11

Your link to these predictions does confirm that you are right about the 40th bowl game being the national championship. So only 39 bowls and 78 teams needed for these games.

Reilly
11-13-2018, 12:08 AM
Brett: Duke/Cincy in Annapolis: https://watchstadium.com/news/brett-mcmurphys-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-11-11-12-2018/

BigWayne
11-13-2018, 03:41 AM
Aren't there 39 bowls (78 teams) in FBS ...and then 2 of those 78 play one more time for the championship? I'm not positive but thought that the case this year, though hard to keep up with the comings and goings of bowls (and the name changes!).

Yes, and though there are 65 teams with 6 wins currently, one of those 65 is not yet bowl eligible because they play 13 regular season games. (Hawaii)
Hawaii is likely to get bowl eligible this week against UNLV.

Tappan Zee Devil
11-13-2018, 08:17 AM
I guess YMMV. Growing up near NY I knew tons of people who went to Syracuse and living in NYC now I am surrounded by Syracuse alums. Syracuse alums are particularly prominent in advertising and PR due to the Newhouse school. A good friend who went there was in Syracuse last weekend and told me there was more buzz around the team than he has seen since he graduated in the 90s.

Also, as I mentioned, for a long time Syracuse has branded itself as NY’s team. You can’t miss the cab tops mentioned in this article. College football is still a very low priority here but I think a lot of Syracuse alums will be at the ND game this weekend and a lot would go to a bowl game, particularly since this is their first decent team in a while.

https://articles.syracuse.com/orangesports/index.ssf/2016/08/the_controversial_and_coveted_new_yorks_college_br anding_effort_lives_on_in_new.amp

You may very well be correct. We clearly move in different circles.
And since I have retired from teaching at Columbia and my daughter has moved from Brooklyn to Baltimore, I don't actually get into the city as often as I did.

Given the void, it certainly makes sense for Syracuse to market themselves as New York's team.
But I certainly don't sense a buzz about them.

budwom
11-13-2018, 09:20 AM
You may very well be correct. We clearly move in different circles.
And since I have retired from teaching at Columbia and my daughter has moved from Brooklyn to Baltimore, I don't actually get into the city as often as I did.

Given the void, it certainly makes sense for Syracuse to market themselves as New York's team.
But I certainly don't sense a buzz about them.

Yup, it's definitely true that there are a ton of Syracuse grads in the NYC area, and it's also definitely true that the vast majority of the metro area doesn't pay any attention to Syracuse at all.
Having said that, they'd be a good pick for the Pinstripe as they'd definitely sell their tickets. Hope they bring their warm coats.

CameronBornAndBred
11-13-2018, 09:36 AM
Bob Holliday takes a look at bowl possibilities for State and Duke.


Back-to-back losses against Virginia and Pitt put Duke's very bowl eligibility in jeopardy. But the Blue Devils have now put themselves squarely in the mix for Tier One Bowl consideration with wins over Miami and UNC.
https://www.wralsportsfan.com/holliday-nc-state-duke-and-bowl-competition/17990452/

YmoBeThere
11-13-2018, 12:39 PM
Hope they bring their warm coats.

Do people from Syracuse even have warm coats?

budwom
11-13-2018, 01:00 PM
Do people from Syracuse even have warm coats?

Good question with that odd stadium they have. I know Syracuse is in a cold location, but most fans misunderestimate how cold it can be when you sit perfectly still at a ball game for four hours.
I've got some coats which keep me toasty when I'm out walking on a 25 degree day, but they are woefully inadequate on a 35 degree day if I'm sitting still...I wore the kind of coat Prince Harry wears
in Antarctica for the Pinstripe Bowl, and I'm glad I did...

OldPhiKap
11-13-2018, 01:17 PM
Good question with that odd stadium they have. I know Syracuse is in a cold location, but most fans misunderestimate how cold it can be when you sit perfectly still at a ball game for four hours.
I've got some coats which keep me toasty when I'm out walking on a 25 degree day, but they are woefully inadequate on a 35 degree day if I'm sitting still...I wore the kind of coat Prince Harry wears
in Antarctica for the Pinstripe Bowl, and I'm glad I did...

I seem to recall the Pinstripe being unusually mild (maybe low 50's?). Belk Bowl was awful -- cold, dark and windy. Dusting of snow during the Sun Bowl but the stadium is kinda crammed between some hills so it seemed sort of sheltered from the wind by comparison.

CameronBornAndBred
11-13-2018, 01:30 PM
I seem to recall the Pinstripe being unusually mild (maybe low 50's?). Belk Bowl was awful -- cold, dark and windy. Dusting of snow during the Sun Bowl but the stadium is kinda crammed between some hills so it seemed sort of sheltered from the wind by comparison.

I think it so cool that you have gotten enough bowl history in the last few years that you can compare weather now. :)

OldPhiKap
11-13-2018, 01:57 PM
I think it so cool that you have gotten enough bowl history in the last few years that you can compare weather now. :)


"You must spread comments . . . ."

Yeah, quite a change. And another on the horizon (although making this next one may be tougher for me). LGD!!!!!!!

CrazyNotCrazie
11-13-2018, 02:00 PM
"You must spread comments . . . ."

Yeah, quite a change. And another on the horizon (although making this next one may be tougher for me). LGD!!!!!!!

But how was the weather at the Chick-fil-a Bowl in Atlanta :p

OldPhiKap
11-13-2018, 02:15 PM
But how was the weather at the Chick-fil-a Bowl in Atlanta :p

Same as the Quick Lane last year in Detroit, oddly enough.

I won't lie -- Tampa in '94 was sweet. I could do Florida again.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-13-2018, 02:23 PM
Same as the Quick Lane last year in Detroit, oddly enough.
.

Based on crowd shots from the telly, I'd have thought Atlanta would've been crowded, warmer and toastier with body heat - but breezy with very few people to block any breeze inside the Silver Dome...
j/k

OldPhiKap
11-13-2018, 02:30 PM
Based on crowd shots from the telly, I'd have thought Atlanta would've been crowded, warmer and toastier with body heat - but breezy with very few people to block any breeze inside the Silver Dome...
j/k

No, there's truth in that.

(Although in Detroit it is the newer Ford Field; I think they imploded the Silver Dome in the same manner as the Lions usually do).

CrazyNotCrazie
11-13-2018, 02:38 PM
No, there's truth in that.

(Although in Detroit it is the newer Ford Field; I think they imploded the Silver Dome in the same manner as the Lions usually do).

In classic Lions fashion, the initial attempt to implode the Silverdome failed, but it worked the second time around. There are few things more enjoyable than watching videos of buildings imploding. As long as they were actually meant to be imploded.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/03/us/detroit-silverdome-implosion-attempt/index.html

OldPhiKap
11-13-2018, 03:43 PM
In classic Lions fashion, the initial attempt to implode the Silverdome failed, but it worked the second time around. There are few things more enjoyable than watching videos of buildings imploding. As long as they were actually meant to be imploded.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/03/us/detroit-silverdome-implosion-attempt/index.html

All you gotta do is put a couple of Norwegians in the boiler room.

(Painfully obscure reference, I know)


I wonder if we are bound for Annapolis or Louisiana since we have not been there yet.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-13-2018, 03:59 PM
All you gotta do is put a couple of Norwegians in the boiler room.

(Painfully obscure reference, I know).

Indeed it is - and yet, some of us get it....:)

Reilly
11-13-2018, 04:12 PM
... I wonder if we are bound for Annapolis or Louisiana since we have not been there yet.

I'm thinking Annapolis. It's higher in the pecking order, so I hope we do not fall below there. I trust Brett McMurphy to thoughtfully slot bowls, and that's his prediction.

Annapolis on a New Year's Eve Monday at noon should generate more Duke attendance than Thursday Dec 27 at 1:30 in Shreveport.

Although there are six bowl games on 12/31, that noon start is mostly unobstructed so we'd have the CFB-watching public all to ourselves for most of our game. The other five games intrude on one another.

My order of preference:

Camping World - Fri 12/28 5:15 pm - Big 12 - Orlando - the marquee bowl for ACC non-NY6
TaxSlayer - Mon 12/31 7:30 pm - SEC - Jax, Florida - primetime NYE in Florida
Nashville - Fri 12/28 1:30 pm - SEC - new city; SEC
Belk - Sat 12/29 noon - SEC opponent - Charlotte but better with SEC opponent

Even though the Sun (12/31 PAC12) and Pinstripe (12/27 Big10) are better bowls, I think I'd prefer Military (12/31 Noon AAC) over them for logistics, and avoiding NY cold (not that Annapolis would be that much better).

Reilly
11-13-2018, 09:29 PM
USA Today: Duke/Southern Cal in Shreveport: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/11/13/college-football-bowl-projections-playoff-holds-new-years-six-changes/1980212002/

Reilly
11-13-2018, 09:53 PM
CFP Rankings released tonight, with the team's computer (SRS) rank afterwards; bold shows disconnect of at least 7 places between humans and computers

1 University of Alabama - 1 SRS
2 Clemson University - 4 SRS
3 University of Notre Dame - 6 SRS
4 University of Michigan -3 SRS
5 University of Georgia - 2 SRS
6 University of Oklahoma - 5 SRS
7 Louisiana State University - 7 SRS
8 Washington State University - 17 SRS
9 West Virginia University - 8 SRS
10 Ohio State University - 9 SRS
11 University of Central Florida - 10 SRS
12 Syracuse University - 25 SRS
13 University of Florida - 18 SRS
14 Penn State University - 12 SRS
15 University of Texas - 22 SRS
16 Iowa State University - 14 SRS
17 University of Kentucky - 19 SRS
18 University of Washington- 29 SRS
19 University of Utah - 24 SRS
20 Boston College - 42 SRS [Duke is #37 SRS -- why isn't Duke ranked?]
21 Mississippi State University - 16 SRS
22 Northwestern University -31 SRS
23 Utah State University - 20 SRS
24 University of Cincinnati - 32 SRS
25 Boise State University - 34 SRS

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

Faison1
11-13-2018, 10:08 PM
20 Boston College - 42 SRS [Duke is #37 SRS -- why isn't Duke ranked?]

Because we messed the bed so badly on too many occasions...and in a very visible fashion

brevity
11-13-2018, 10:47 PM
CFP Rankings released tonight, with the team's computer (SRS) rank afterwards; bold shows disconnect of at least 7 places between humans and computers

1 University of Alabama - 1 SRS
2 Clemson University - 4 SRS
3 University of Notre Dame - 6 SRS
4 University of Michigan -3 SRS
5 University of Georgia - 2 SRS
6 University of Oklahoma - 5 SRS
7 Louisiana State University - 7 SRS
8 Washington State University - 17 SRS
9 West Virginia University - 8 SRS
10 Ohio State University - 9 SRS
11 University of Central Florida - 10 SRS
12 Syracuse University - 25 SRS
13 University of Florida - 18 SRS
14 Penn State University - 12 SRS
15 University of Texas - 22 SRS
16 Iowa State University - 14 SRS
17 University of Kentucky - 19 SRS
18 University of Washington- 29 SRS
19 University of Utah - 24 SRS
20 Boston College - 42 SRS [Duke is #37 SRS -- why isn't Duke ranked?]
21 Mississippi State University - 16 SRS
22 Northwestern University -31 SRS
23 Utah State University - 20 SRS
24 University of Cincinnati - 32 SRS
25 Boise State University - 34 SRS

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html

For what it's worth, the hive minds of the CBS Sports newsroom agree with you.

Jerry Palm (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-rankings-mostly-status-quo-as-ucf-syracuse-tick-up-in-top-25/):


The most egregious example of ignoring head-to-head is closer to the bottom of the rankings. No. 24 [sic] Northwestern, which clinched bowl eligibility and the Big Ten West crown last Saturday, is ranked ahead of Duke despite the Blue Devils (7-3) beating the Wildcats (6-4) 21-7 in Evanston, Illinois, back in Week 2.

Tom Fornelli (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-rankings-judgments-group-of-five-teams-get-thrown-a-bone-for-once/):


I knew that Northwestern was going to be ranked this week when it clinched the Big Ten West, even though it's a team with losses to 4-5 Akron and a 7-3 Duke, which is unranked! Maybe Duke should be ranked instead of Northwestern? It hasn't won its division, which might be just as bad as the Big Ten West, but it doesn't have a loss as bad as Akron. Plus, you know, it beat this Northwestern team and has a couple of other decent nonconference wins against Army and Baylor.

CameronBornAndBred
11-13-2018, 10:50 PM
For what it's worth, the hive minds of the CBS Sports newsroom agree with you.

Jerry Palm (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-rankings-mostly-status-quo-as-ucf-syracuse-tick-up-in-top-25/):



Tom Fornelli (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-rankings-judgments-group-of-five-teams-get-thrown-a-bone-for-once/):

Go Tom and Jerry!

devildeac
11-13-2018, 11:04 PM
Go Tom and Jerry!

You called?

8807

duke2x
11-14-2018, 12:11 AM
I thought I would make this list handy as most pundits don't consider it. Below is a list of recent bowl appearances in each bowl. This is the last tiebreaker (particularly on Tier 2). You are not supposed to go to the same bowl more than one time every 4 years, but I don't think it's enough to bump Duke up to Belk et al. unless someone wants us.

Camping -- VT, Miami, UNC, Clemson

Belk -- Wake, VT, NCSU, UNC
Sun -- NCSU, UNC, Miami, Duke
Pinstripe --BC, Pitt, Duke, BC
Music City -- Louisville, ND
Tax --GT, Louisville

Military --UVA, Wake, Pitt, VT
Independence -- FSU, NCSU, VT, Miami
Motor City--Duke, BC, UNC

I didn't think of Daniel Jones playing a homecoming (or potential last game) as a possible factor that might interest the Belk, particularly if the opponent is SC and UVA is off the table.

CameronBornAndBred
11-14-2018, 01:07 AM
Belk Bowl

FWIW, Duke played as a 6-6 team Vs Cincinnati, and since we lost, we ended with a losing season. Since that selection, I've gone the political route, and haven't put much faith in the polls.

That being said, I've been a fan of the SC/Duke Belk Bowl matchups through this year for history reasons, but love the Duke/Stanford matchup for both academic reasons and a touch of revenge. I remember that Tree twisting and dancing in WW, (along with Luck), and I'd like some payback.
Wherever we play, chances are I'll be watching from home...and wishing I was there! (CLT, though...and Nashville, both very tempting.) If the Belk weren't a nooner...

Indoor66
11-14-2018, 08:22 AM
You called?

8807

My favorites, along with Road Runner.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-14-2018, 09:28 AM
Belk Bowl

FWIW, Duke played as a 6-6 team Vs Cincinnati, and since we lost, we ended with a losing season. Since that selection, I've gone the political route, and haven't put much faith in the polls.

That being said, I've been a fan of the SC/Duke Belk Bowl matchups through this year for history reasons, but love the Duke/Stanford matchup for both academic reasons and a touch of revenge. I remember that Tree twisting and dancing in WW, (along with Luck), and I'd like some payback.
Wherever we play, chances are I'll be watching from home...and wishing I was there! (CLT, though...and Nashville, both very tempting.) If the Belk weren't a nooner...

Seems to me that when Duke went to the Belk Bowl at 6-6 - that the Belk Bowl was a lower tier bowl than it is now. I'm not basing that off anything but kind a vague memory and feeling. Any bowl with Duke/Cincy is a tough one to fill up the seats, given relatively small fan bases for both teams (in FB).

A Duke SC Belk matchup would likely be a sell out, a nice atmosphere, and a chance to knock off an SEC team.

Acymetric
11-14-2018, 11:30 AM
I thought I would make this list handy as most pundits don't consider it. Below is a list of recent bowl appearances in each bowl. This is the last tiebreaker (particularly on Tier 2). You are not supposed to go to the same bowl more than one time every 4 years, but I don't think it's enough to bump Duke up to Belk et al. unless someone wants us.

Camping -- VT, Miami, UNC, Clemson

Belk -- Wake, VT, NCSU, UNC
Sun -- NCSU, UNC, Miami, Duke
Pinstripe --BC, Pitt, Duke, BC
Music City -- Louisville, ND
Tax --GT, Louisville

Military --UVA, Wake, Pitt, VT
Independence -- FSU, NCSU, VT, Miami
Motor City--Duke, BC, UNC

I didn't think of Daniel Jones playing a homecoming (or potential last game) as a possible factor that might interest the Belk, particularly if the opponent is SC and UVA is off the table.

People seem to think we are undesirable for bowls for some reason. We travel as well if not better for bowls than anyone in the ACC sans Clemson and VT in recent years (FSU does not go to bowls any more apparently so it doesn't matter how well they travel). I think the Belk Bowl would be happy to have us after the long break from being there, and the Daniel Jones homecoming/hype train just adds to that.

wilson
11-14-2018, 11:34 AM
People seem to think we are undesirable for bowls for some reason. We travel as well if not better for bowls than anyone in the ACC sans Clemson and VT in recent years (FSU does not go to bowls any more apparently so it doesn't matter how well they travel). I think the Belk Bowl would be happy to have us after the long break from being there, and the Daniel Jones homecoming/hype train just adds to that.This flummoxes me to some extent too. Do the bowl organizers not realize how utterly giddy our fanbase still is to be even discussing bowls? God, I'd have given anything to attend any bowl anywhere during my undergrad years.

Acymetric
11-14-2018, 11:42 AM
This flummoxes me to some extent too. Do the bowl organizers not realize how utterly giddy our fanbase still is to be even discussing bowls? God, I'd have given anything to attend any bowl anywhere during my undergrad years.

It isn't the organizers though, who do realize it. It is the fans and prognosticators who are underestimating our appeal relative to some of these other schools. Proof will be in the pudding when the bowls are actually announced (assuming we beat Wake, if we lose that game we'll get a crap bowl).

Devil in the Blue Dress
11-14-2018, 11:56 AM
People seem to think we are undesirable for bowls for some reason. We travel as well if not better for bowls than anyone in the ACC sans Clemson and VT in recent years (FSU does not go to bowls any more apparently so it doesn't matter how well they travel). I think the Belk Bowl would be happy to have us after the long break from being there, and the Daniel Jones homecoming/hype train just adds to that.
Didn't Duke set a record for tickets sales and attendance in the Chic-fil-a Bowl?

Reilly
11-14-2018, 12:12 PM
The ACC team hotel for the Military Bowl is the Mayflower Hotel in DC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayflower_Hotel

Reilly
11-14-2018, 12:19 PM
... Do the bowl organizers not realize how utterly giddy our fanbase still is to be even discussing bowls? ...

We are still giddy and that's a fun place to be -- grateful and appreciative. Thing is, this year, our competition for these better ACC bowls and possibly warmer climes -- Syracuse, BC, UVa, NCSU, Pitt -- will all be equally giddy, it seems. None of those are FSU or Clemson or VT who might be jaded about the experience. And given we've had the Chik-fi-A and Sun and Pinstripe experiences relatively recently, our competition (Syr, BC, UVa, NCSU, and Pitt) might be seen as even more deserving than Duke, for not having had those experiences lately (don't really know what those other schools experience have been -- except Virginia, which only has a Navy shellacking on its recent bowl resume).

What gets me is that we are as good as -- and arguably better (slightly) than -- those other schools this year when it comes to actual football, yet they are getting more national love (w/ Syracuse, BC, and NCSU being ranked by humans way above where a reasonable computer would put them).

Reilly
11-14-2018, 12:26 PM
BC recent bowls


1
2017 Dec 27, 2017 Wed Pinstripe Bowl Iowa 27 Boston College 20 New Yankee Stadium - New York, New York

2
2016 Dec 26, 2016 Mon Quick Lane Bowl Boston College 36 Maryland 30 Ford Field - Detroit, Michigan

3
2014 Dec 27, 2014 Sat Pinstripe Bowl Penn State 31 Boston College 30 Bronx, New York

4
2013 Dec 31, 2013 Tue Independence Bowl Arizona 42 Boston College 19 Shreveport, LA



Pitt recent bowls


1
2016 Dec 28, 2016 Wed Pinstripe Bowl Northwestern 31 Pitt 24 Yankee Stadium - Bronx, New York

2
2015 Dec 28, 2015 Mon Military Bowl Navy 44 Pitt 28 Annapolis, MD

3
2014 Jan 2, 2015 Fri Armed Forces Bowl Houston 35 Pitt 34 Fort Worth, TX

4
2013 Dec 26, 2013 Thu Little Caesars Bowl Pitt 30 Bowling Green State 27 Detroit, MI

5
2012 Jan 5, 2013 Sat BBVA Compass Bowl Ole Miss 38 Pitt 17 Birmingham, AL

6
2011 Jan 7, 2012 Sat BBVA Compass Bowl SMU 28 Pitt 6 Birmingham, AL

7
2010 Jan 8, 2011 Sat BBVA Compass Bowl Pitt 27 Kentucky 10 Birmingham, AL


Syracuse recent bowls


1
2013 Dec 27, 2013 Fri Texas Bowl Syracuse 21 Minnesota 17 Houston, TX

2
2012 Dec 29, 2012 Sat Pinstripe Bowl Syracuse 38 West Virginia 14 New York, NY

3
2010 Dec 30, 2010 Thu Pinstripe Bowl Syracuse 36 Kansas State 34 Bronx, NY


NCSU recent bowls


1
2017 Dec 29, 2017 Fri Sun Bowl North Carolina State 52 Arizona State 31 El Paso, TX

2
2016 Dec 26, 2016 Mon Independence Bowl North Carolina State 41 Vanderbilt 17 Independence Stadium - Shreveport, Louisiana

3
2015 Dec 30, 2015 Wed Belk Bowl Mississippi State 51 North Carolina State 28 Charlotte, NC

4
2014 Dec 26, 2014 Fri St. Petersburg Bowl North Carolina State 34 UCF 27 St. Petersburg, FL

5
2012 Dec 31, 2012 Mon Music City Bowl Vanderbilt 38 North Carolina State 24 Nashville, TN

6
2011 Dec 27, 2011 Tue Belk Bowl North Carolina State 31 Louisville 24 Charlotte, NC

7
2010 Dec 28, 2010 Tue Champs Sports Bowl North Carolina State 23 West Virginia 7 Orlando, FL


UVA recent bowls


1
2017 Dec 28, 2017 Thu Military Bowl Navy 49 Virginia 7 Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, Maryland

2
2011 Dec 31, 2011 Sat Chick-fil-A Bowl Auburn 43 Virginia 24 Atlanta, GA

OldPhiKap
11-14-2018, 12:55 PM
I note that this is the third straight bowl season The Hat can experience without ever leaving his living room.

budwom
11-14-2018, 02:00 PM
It's important to remember that a lot goes on behind the scenes which writers don't see, they're just making their best educated guesses.
For example, Kevin White and company lobby hard, they make sure the bowls know Duke will buy all of its allocated tickets, etc, because they understand
the value of going to a bowl, and the best one available at that...money isn't really that much of an issue....make sure all the tickets are bought.
And of course, the ACC pools bowl revenue, so the conference should do fairly well this year with Clemmons in The Big Hunt...how ironic it would be if we
knocked them off and messed up the league finances (not a realistic possibility, I fully know)./

Acymetric
11-14-2018, 02:09 PM
It's important to remember that a lot goes on behind the scenes which writers don't see, they're just making their best educated guesses.
For example, Kevin White and company lobby hard, they make sure the bowls know Duke will buy all of its allocated tickets, etc, because they understand
the value of going to a bowl, and the best one available at that...money isn't really that much of an issue...make sure all the tickets are bought.
And of course, the ACC pools bowl revenue, so the conference should do fairly well this year with Clemmons in The Big Hunt...how ironic it would be if we
knocked them off and messed up the league finances (not a realistic possibility, I fully know)./

12-1 Clemson still gets in over 12-1 Oklahoma or 11-2 Georgia. The only situation where 12-1 Clemson gets left out is if UGA beats Alabama in the SEC championship game and the playoff teams end up as Alabama, UGA, Michigan, Notre Dame.

JasonEvans
11-14-2018, 02:42 PM
12-1 Clemson still gets in over 12-1 Oklahoma or 11-2 Georgia. The only situation where 12-1 Clemson gets left out is if UGA beats Alabama in the SEC championship game and the playoff teams end up as Alabama, UGA, Michigan, Notre Dame.

The nightmare for the playoff committee is if Georgia beats Alabama in a really close game where both teams look fantastic. How do you leave Alabama out of the playoff after the truly amazing season it has had? Ok, so let both GA and Bama go... then who do you leave out? Undefeated ND and undefeated Clemson are both in. In that case, I could see 12-1 Michigan getting left at home. Harbaugh might personally go to KC and burn NCAA HQ to the ground if that happens.