Five Key Questions for Duke Football

[Bob Green]

Jim Sumner has an article posted on the Front Page so give it a read and discuss:

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2018/8/25/17780792/five-key-questions-for-duke-football-daniel-cutcliffe-daniel-jones-ben-humphreys


I try to distinguish between question marks and concerns, with the latter being the more serious. And there may not be any concerns on this year’s team. But there are some question marks that could derail Duke’s big-season aspirations.

[budwom]

gotta have a sixth question: can the underperforming WR unit from last year improve (with new coaching and some new players). They were not good last year, period. Major key to the season (getting some separation on a regular basis).

[Sixthman]

If I were to add a question to his list it is this: will we develop additional offensive playmakers -- people who take the game to their opponents and accomplish more than is expected? Jones and Brown seem to fall into this category, but we will need someone in the passing game who does more than hit their marks and avoid drops. The urgency of this will also depend on how we choose to use Jones. He has been at his playmaking best when running the ball, which of course, exposes him to injury, which implicates Jim's question about whether we have a backup quarterback.

[OldPhiKap]

“Duke returns a boatload of talent and boasts a roster that has more speed, depth and next-level talent than any team during David Cutcliffe’s decade long-tenure at Duke.“

— JimSumner

I’m gonna take a break, and enjoy that sentence, before moving on to the questions. Because that observation, in and of itself, deserves appreciation.

Always love Jim’s observations and writing style, and Bob thanks for linking it here for those of us who often forget to check the front page.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

gotta have a sixth question: can the underperforming WR unit from last year improve (with new coaching and some new players). They were not good last year, period. Major key to the season (getting some separation on a regular basis).

Separation is a concern, but I think a bigger concern is 50-50 balls. Duke's O seemed to get only about 10% of the 50-50 balls. Separation can be limited by natural abilities, but 50-50 balls are more attitude and technique. I would love to see some improvement in both.

[devildeac]

Separation is a concern, but I think a bigger concern is 50-50 balls. Duke's O seemed to get only about 10% of the 50-50 balls. Separation can be limited by natural abilities, but 50-50 balls are more attitude and technique. I would love to see some improvement in both.

"Football is 90% mental and the other half is physical."

-Yogi (paraphrased:o)

[budwom]

Separation is a concern, but I think a bigger concern is 50-50 balls. Duke's O seemed to get only about 10% of the 50-50 balls. Separation can be limited by natural abilities, but 50-50 balls are more attitude and technique. I would love to see some improvement in both.

When I attended games in person, I can't tell you how many times I watched the receivers to see if any were getting open, and, a distressing number of times, none did....moreover, numerous times I'd see Jones lock in on receivers going long who weren't open in the least and still he'd throw the ball...needless to say, this rarely succeeded. Yes, tougher guys getting 50-50 balls would be nice, but a group of upper class receivers simply has to do a MUCH better job of getting open.

As a result, teams learned to jam our receivers at the line of scrimmage, having little fear they'd blow by them.

[fuse]

Well written, great read Jim Sumner.

Maybe it is a different thread. I would not claim to be an expert, this feels like one of the more (most?) difficult schedules in Cut’s tenure.

Getting 6,7 wins and a bowl would be a pretty good outcome against some tough competition.

[OldPhiKap]

Well written, great read Jim Sumner.

Maybe it is a different thread. I would not claim to be an expert, this feels like one of the more (most?) difficult schedules in Cut’s tenure.

Getting 6,7 wins and a bowl would be a pretty good outcome against some tough competition.

Absolutely agree on the schedule. We could start 1-2, and still be a pretty darn good team playing well. And that’s before @Clemson and @ Miami.

[arnie]

Absolutely agree on the schedule. We could start 1-2, and still be a pretty darn good team playing well. And that’s before @Clemson and @ Miami.

I can’t entirely agree with this; if we are a pretty good team and playing well, we should not lose to both Northwestern and Baylor. I expect that our talent and coaching are on par or better than both teams.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I can’t entirely agree with this; if we are a pretty good team and playing well, we should not lose to both Northwestern and Baylor. I expect that our talent and coaching are on par or better than both teams.

I agree...if we're playing well, should be 3-0, 2-1 worst case.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

When I attended games in person, I can't tell you how many times I watched the receivers to see if any were getting open, and, a distressing number of times, none did...moreover, numerous times I'd see Jones lock in on receivers going long who weren't open in the least and still he'd throw the ball...needless to say, this rarely succeeded. Yes, tougher guys getting 50-50 balls would be nice, but a group of upper class receivers simply has to do a MUCH better job of getting open.

As a result, teams learned to jam our receivers at the line of scrimmage, having little fear they'd blow by them.

I think you might've misinterpreted my point...yes, separation was not achieved last year, and it killed us. Poor performance on 50-50 balls killed us too...and of course, the two are linked in that 50-50 balls are balls thrown with no separation in many cases. That said, our guys may not be fast enough to separate....but winning 50-50 balls is purely technique and attitude. Those two factors can change, even if speed cannot.

[OldPhiKap]

I can’t entirely agree with this; if we are a pretty good team and playing well, we should not lose to both Northwestern and Baylor. I expect that our talent and coaching are on par or better than both teams.

I agree we are not behind these teams, but we are on the road. Baylor should be markedly better than when we faced them last year as well.

[arnie]

I agree we are not behind these teams, but we are on the road. Baylor should be markedly better than when we faced them last year as well.

Understand, I just have high expectations this year🙏 Think our D will dominate

[OldPhiKap]

Understand, I just have high expectations this year🙏 Think our D will dominate

From your keyboard to God’s inbox, my friend. LGD!!!!!!

[budwom]

at this point in the season, most fans like their teams...I can tell you most Northwestern fans think they'll beat Duke...both the NU and Baylor games will be tough (unless Thorson is out for NU).

[peloton]

Understand, I just have high expectations this year🙏 Think our D will dominate

I'm with you there - on both accounts! Maybe the weather next Friday will be as perfect as this weekend's has been so far (at least in the Triangle). So, to summarize...let's hope the Football and Tailgating Weather gods look kindly upon us on the 31st.

[peloton]

at this point in the season, most fans like their teams...I can tell you most Northwestern fans think they'll beat Duke...both the NU and Baylor games will be tough (unless Thorson is out for NU).

I hope that Northwestern and Baylor both feel that they're up to the task of beating our guys. We've got 'em just where we want 'em! :D

[Bob Green]

...both the NU and Baylor games will be tough (unless Thorson is out for NU).

The news coming out of Evanston indicates Thorson will start against Purdue on Thursday evening.

https://www.insidenu.com/2018/8/24/17775116/northwestern-football-preview-pessimism-analysis-ryan-field-clayton-thorson-offense-secondary


We’ve belabored the point about Clayton Thorson — all signs indicate he will start on Thursday, but if he doesn’t, NU will need to reassess its expectations for the time Thorson is on the sidelines.

[loran16]

Excellent article by Jim (as usual). I'd add a sixth question:

Can any one of the wide receiver corps step up to the plate and provide a safety valve for Jones?

Past Duke QBs have had at least one wide receiver they could count on to get free for big plays, or even short plays when just a little more yardage was needed. Thad had Eron Riley, Renfree had Conner Vernon, Donovan Varner and Jamison Crowder (dude was gifted with riches), Boone had Crowder in his big year as well, etc.

Daniel Jones has not - we've hoped TJ Rahming might've developed into such as he's been the closest, but unlike the above guys he HAS been shut down by some of the better teams during Duke's few tough stretches the last two years. Jim and Steve Wiseman have mentioned the three frosh WRs who have impressed in scrimmages, and of course the old veterans are still here - can any of them step up to provide that safety valve that Jones can always look for when the going's tough?

[budwom]

^ i think we added the WR sixth question a few days ago...pretty glaring question mark for this team. Yes, perhaps more talent than ever in Durham, but not necessarily at the WR position, until proven otherwise.

[OldPhiKap]

^ i think we added the WR sixth question a few days ago...pretty glaring question mark for this team. Yes, perhaps more talent than ever in Durham, but not necessarily at the WR position, until proven otherwise.

This, and the kicking game, separate 9 wins from 5.

[loran16]

^ i think we added the WR sixth question a few days ago...pretty glaring question mark for this team. Yes, perhaps more talent than ever in Durham, but not necessarily at the WR position, until proven otherwise.

Oops, missed that above. Still, it's a good one. Boone was worse than Renfree or Thad, but having a smorgasboard of amazing WRs made him have more success than either of them.

[budwom]

there has been some thought that Duke might make some adjustments, such as playing two tight ends more (that was done some during the late resurgence last year) and running back Jackson (a former receiver) is said to possess good hands, so maybe more two RB sets or Jackson in the slot or who the heck knows...

[Bob Green]

there has been some thought that Duke might make some adjustments, such as playing two tight ends more (that was done some during the late resurgence last year) and running back Jackson (a former receiver) is said to possess good hands, so maybe more two RB sets or Jackson in the slot or who the heck knows...

How much of the playbook do you expect to see Friday night? While we cannot take Army for granted, after all, they beat us last season, I'm wondering if Coach Cutcliffe will desire to safe the adjustments for the Week 2 and Week 3 road games. Duke "should" be able to beat Army with a vanilla offense as long as we execute.

I'm not sure what to expect.

[budwom]

How much of the playbook do you expect to see Friday night? While we cannot take Army for granted, after all, they beat us last season, I'm wondering if Coach Cutcliffe will desire to safe the adjustments for the Week 2 and Week 3 road games. Duke "should" be able to beat Army with a vanilla offense as long as we execute.

I'm not sure what to expect.

very true, but I expected a routine win last year and D'oh! No doubt wrinkles can be saved for NW....will be disappointed if we don't play well.

[devildeac]

Steve Wiseman takes the DBR discussion to the Raleigh N&O this AM (;)):

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article217244045.html

[OldPhiKap]

We start answering questions at the end of this work week!!! WOOT!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Oops, missed that above. Still, it's a good one. Boone was worse than Renfree or Thad, but having a smorgasboard of amazing WRs made him have more success than either of them.

In general, I don't disagree with that....at least, I'll put Thad above the other two for sure.

That said, against Texas A&M, Boone was fabulous - minus one killer play. And I don't want to minimize that pick six interception return, but for the whole body of work, Boone out passed Johnny football and Duke had almost 700 yards total offense if memory serves. And Manziel played very well too.

This was a very very good A&M team, that I think had beaten Alabama, and was expected to crush Duke. On ESPN's bowl prediction system (which is pretty cool actually) - Duke was team with the least chance of winning. On that night, Duke was clearly the equal of A&M. Boone was a huge part of that.

And there was some inexcusably poor clock management at the end of the half...turned a sure TD after a fantastic pass play to the 2 yard line - into a field goal. 38-17 at half. I can only wonder if 42-17 instead would've been a bridge too far for A&M to even think they could over come. We'll never know.

[budwom]

yup, should've gone for the running TD, we were carving them up.

[martydoesntfoul]

And there was some inexcusably poor clock management at the end of the half...turned a sure TD after a fantastic pass play to the 2 yard line - into a field goal. 38-17 at half. I can only wonder if 42-17 instead would've been a bridge too far for A&M to even think they could over come. We'll never know.If I recall, Cut thought we scored a TD but the refs refused to review. Correct me if I’m wrong.

[devildeac]

If I recall, Cut thought we scored a TD but the refs refused to review. Correct me if I’m wrong.

We were seated in the opposite end zone and thought we saw a goal line ref raise his arms to signal a TD so that is my recollection as well.

[Acymetric]

If I recall, Cut thought we scored a TD but the refs refused to review. Correct me if I’m wrong.


We were seated in the opposite end zone and thought we saw a goal line ref raise his arms to signal a TD so that is my recollection as well.

Even accounting for confusion over whether a TD was scored, we had the ball 2nd and 1 with 23 seconds left and a timeout, let the clock run down to 2 seconds, called a timeout and kicked a field goal. Absolutely should have been able to get one more crack at goal in that situation. In fact, if we wanted the refs to review, calling the TO would have been the smart play.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Even accounting for confusion over whether a TD was scored, we had the ball 2nd and 1 with 23 seconds left and a timeout, let the clock run down to 2 seconds, called a timeout and kicked a field goal. Absolutely should have been able to get one more crack at goal in that situation. In fact, if we wanted the refs to review, calling the TO would have been the smart play.

It was the best half of offensive football I've seen Duke play in my entire life, especially considering the situation and opposition. I don't think there's any way Duke doesn't score a TD with clock management.

And I can only wonder if 42-17 wraps it up......

[devildeac]

Even accounting for confusion over whether a TD was scored, we had the ball 2nd and 1 with 23 seconds left and a timeout, let the clock run down to 2 seconds, called a timeout and kicked a field goal. Absolutely should have been able to get one more crack at goal in that situation. In fact, if we wanted the refs to review, calling the TO would have been the smart play.

Thanks! That certainly fills in some missing details for me. I thought we scored the "TD" with about 10 seconds to play and, in the confusion/controversy/discrepancy/disagreement that ensued, allowed the game clock to tick off until the TO with 2 seconds remaining.

[Acymetric]

Thanks! That certainly fills in some missing details for me. I thought we scored the "TD" with about 10 seconds to play and, in the confusion/controversy/discrepancy/disagreement that ensued, allowed the game clock to tick off until the TO with 2 seconds remaining.

Well we ran the "TD" (that was not a TD) play starting at 0:23, so I can't say for sure how much was left after the play (but a 1 yard run should not have taken much more than 8-10 seconds from start to finish at most). Possibly the bigger mistake in clock management was wasting 25 seconds on the play before that, a 23 yard 1st down that got us to the 1 yard line. Somehow we burned 25 seconds despite the fact that the clock stopped temporarily for the first down. Either we were intentionally burning clock (a mistake), or we had such a hard time getting organized that we couldn't get the play in (also a mistake). Ultimately, bad clock management on the last two offensive downs (before the 2nd down FG attempt) cost us 2 extra chances at the end zone from the 1 yard line.

Edit: I got that a tad bit wrong...here is the relevant play-by-play (the time listed is the time after the play was blown dead) so it was actually the play before the pass to the 1 where we burned a ton of time (and then also wasted time between Shaq's run and the eventual TO/FG attempt).

http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=333650245



3rd & 1 at TA&M 31
(0:48 - 2nd) Shaquille Powell rush for 7 yards to the TexAM 24 for a 1ST down.

1st & 10 at TA&M 24
(0:23 - 2nd) Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 23 yards to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST down.

1st & Goal at TA&M 1
(0:02 - 2nd) Shaquille Powell rush for no gain to the TexAM 1.

2nd & Goal at TA&M 1
(0:02 - 2nd) Timeout DUKE, clock 0:02.

2nd & Goal at TA&M 1
(0:00 - 2nd) Ross Martin 18 yard field goal GOOD.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

[QUOTE=Acymetric;1086263]Well we ran the "TD" (that was not a TD) play starting at 0:23, so I can't say for sure how much was left after the play (but a 1 yard run should not have taken much more than 8-10 seconds from start to finish at most).

http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=333650245


I believe the time of 0:23 was when the play expired....I think that's how they track it (full disclosure, I'm not totally sure).

[Acymetric]

I believe the time of 0:23 was when the play expired...I think that's how they track it (full disclosure, I'm not totally sure).

You are correct...I realized my mistake part way through writing the post and corrected it later in the post but didn't fix that part. Thanks for clarifying!

[richmclean]

Even accounting for confusion over whether a TD was scored, we had the ball 2nd and 1 with 23 seconds left and a timeout, let the clock run down to 2 seconds, called a timeout and kicked a field goal. Absolutely should have been able to get one more crack at goal in that situation. In fact, if we wanted the refs to review, calling the TO would have been the smart play.

At least one more crack. Very poor clock management

[sagegrouse]

At least one more crack. Very poor clock management

The front page of the EK Forum is in a state of disrepair at the moment. The first two posts deal with the Duke-Texas A&M debacle and Harrison Barnes.

[Acymetric]

The front page of the EK Forum is in a state of disrepair at the moment. The first two posts deal with the Duke-Texas A&M debacle and Harrison Barnes.

We should have something more worthwhile to discuss as of Friday! ;)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

We should have something more worthwhile to discuss as of Friday! ;)

Someone go resurrect some 9F threads!

[Bob Green]

The front page of the EK Forum is in a state of disrepair at the moment. The first two posts deal with the Duke-Texas A&M debacle and Harrison Barnes.

Duke football held a press conference today so I'm expecting "Notes" from Jim Sumner sometime this afternoon/evening. Jim always provides lots of discussion material.