Life of Pie

[UrinalCake]

We've got a couple months until C2C, which feels like forever now that we've gotten a taste of Duke basketball. It's time to get some pie bets going! There were a few suggested in some of the other threads but many involved betting against our team, which of course met with resistance. So in honor of my complete and utter disdain for our friends down the road, I'll suggest a pie bet that Nassir Little does not go OAD this year. In other words, if he leaves for the NBA after one year, you win the bet. If he returns to school, I win the bet. If any of the following scenarios happen, we will call it a draw:

- he declares for the draft but goes undrafted
- he leaves school for any other reason
- he suffers a SEVERE injury that causes him to come back (there's some ambiguity in how we would define this, but I'm game to discuss if it actually happens)

Any takers?

[Troublemaker]

We've got a couple months until C2C, which feels like forever now that we've gotten a taste of Duke basketball. It's time to get some pie bets going! There were a few suggested in some of the other threads but many involved betting against our team, which of course met with resistance. So in honor of my complete and utter disdain for our friends down the road, I'll suggest a pie bet that Nassir Little does not go OAD this year. In other words, if he leaves for the NBA after one year, you win the bet. If he returns to school, I win the bet. If any of the following scenarios happen, we will call it a draw:

- he declares for the draft but goes undrafted
- he leaves school for any other reason
- he suffers a SEVERE injury that causes him to come back (there's some ambiguity in how we would define this, but I'm game to discuss if it actually happens)

Any takers?

Your terms are too generous. For example, I don't understand why the bolded wouldn't be a win for you.

I assume the operating theory behind this bet is that "Roy/UNC harms a recruit's draft stock, and highly-rated recruits would be advised to go elsewhere." (There is much-discussed anecdotal evidence of this in the way UNC tends to keep RSCI top-10 recruits around longer than other programs.) If so, then if Little declares but goes undrafted, that should be a win for you.

Furthermore, I would just state the bet like this: If Nassir Little is a first-round draft pick in the 2019 NBA draft, UrinalCake loses a pie. Otherwise, UrinalCake wins a pie.

No self-respecting UNC should turn down this bet considering Little is a consensus top-5 draft pick in early NBA mocks. I mean, either UNC fans believe the narrative or they don't. Which is it?

[dukelifer]

We've got a couple months until C2C, which feels like forever now that we've gotten a taste of Duke basketball. It's time to get some pie bets going! There were a few suggested in some of the other threads but many involved betting against our team, which of course met with resistance. So in honor of my complete and utter disdain for our friends down the road, I'll suggest a pie bet that Nassir Little does not go OAD this year. In other words, if he leaves for the NBA after one year, you win the bet. If he returns to school, I win the bet. If any of the following scenarios happen, we will call it a draw:

- he declares for the draft but goes undrafted
- he leaves school for any other reason
- he suffers a SEVERE injury that causes him to come back (there's some ambiguity in how we would define this, but I'm game to discuss if it actually happens)

Any takers?

Nassir Little was one of the top 5 players in this class- the McDonalds AA MVP. UNC needs his athleticism and he should get plenty of playing time. I am close to taking this bet.

[Pghdukie]

I'm in the thought process that the NBA drafts on potential. Little has potential. But I'm leaning towards Fats giving him a car, grades, and a personality. I'm also close to a decision. I've narrowed my list to 5 schools of thought !

[pfrduke]

I’ll take the bet on the original terms (not the Troublemaker modifications)

[flyingdutchdevil]

I’ll take the bet. Little is a top 3 talent.

[UrinalCake]

I assume the operating theory behind this bet is that "Roy/UNC harms a recruit's draft stock, and highly-rated recruits would be advised to go elsewhere." ... If so, then if Little declares but goes undrafted, that should be a win for you.

You are correct that the basis of this bet is my belief that Roy does not develop players for the NBA quickly. I considered drafting the bet under the terms you described, but what swung it for me was Trevon Duval. We consider him to be a OAD player even though he went undrafted. If he goes on to become a star in the NBA, then Duke fans will take credit for "developing" him. So in fairness, I'd have to say that if the same thing happens to Little then I'll have to consider him a OAD player as well. But for the sake of the bet a draw seems fair. I thought about putting in stipulations like if he signs a two-way contract but decided that would all be too complicated.



I’ll take the bet on the original terms (not the Troublemaker modifications)

Looks like you got in first so I'll call it a handshake and we are on!

[cbarry]

I would take that bet in a heartbeat. Not that it's the best gauge of a player, but Nassir Little completely dominated the parts of the McDonald's AA game I watched. He is legit good... He is easily all-ACC, and a NBA lottery pick.

But it looks like our guys are even better, judging from the first couple of exhibition games.

[UrinalCake]

Harrison Barnes, James Michael MacAdoo, and Jon Henson were top-5 players. Justin Jackson was top-10 and co-MVP of the McD AA game. Ed Davis was top-10. PJ Hairston, Reggie Bullock, Isaiah Hicks all top-15. None of these guys went OAD under Roy.

[richardjackson199]

Looks like you got in first so I'll call it a handshake and we are on!

UrinalCake I would be absolutely shocked if you win this bet. I think Little goes OAD and easily gets drafted.

So that bodes well for you!

Good luck to both of you.

[flyingdutchdevil]

UrinalCake I would be absolutely shocked if you win this bet. I think Little goes OAD and easily gets drafted.

So that bodes well for you!

Good luck to both of you.

I'd bet Little goes top 7. I'd easily bet he goes before at least one of our 3 rockstars.

He's the best defender of the Duke/Kerlina frosh and has an incredible motor like RJ and Zion. He just isn't as offensively polished.

[UrinalCake]

I realize that the odds are not in my favor, but that’s what makes this bet so fun (for me). Every time Little has a bad game I’ll enjoy it just a little more than I would have otherwise.

[arnie]

I realize that the odds are not in my favor, but that’s what makes this bet so fun (for me). Every time Little has a bad game I’ll enjoy it just a little more than I would have otherwise.

You have a shot at winning this. Roy may not give Little that many minutes, and we he does, Little must defer to blue mouth guard. At season end, Roy tells him he needs another year.

[Troublemaker]

I realize that the odds are not in my favor, but that’s what makes this bet so fun (for me). Every time Little has a bad game I’ll enjoy it just a little more than I would have otherwise.

I'm with you in spirit on this bet for sure. Whereas most probably feel like you have a 5% shot at this, I think it's more like 30-40%. I'm a believer in the narrative, in other words, and I was actually going to offer UNC fans like Wheat a similar bet. But, in the end, I decided against it because:

(1) It's supposed to be a weak draft. I could see Little falling out of the lottery but not the first round. (With that said, that's not mutually exclusive with you winning. I give you 30-40% because one could easily imagine a Little that's projected to be drafted in the 20s returning to school to [at least in his mind] build up his draft stock.)

(2) The "observer effect." Roy and UNC know that the world of recruiting is watching what happens with Little. The reputation of draft-stock-sinking / draft-delaying is out there. And the UNC staff knows that if they want to sign top-5 recruits like Little in the future, they better do everything in their power to at least make him a lottery pick after this season. If we could somehow trick Roy and UNC into not knowing about their reputation, I think you would win this pie. But, as in some scientific experiments, the observers change the behavior of the subject being studied.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I guess my pie win from Wheat might have been his swan song on DBR?

[curtis325]

I guess my pie win from Wheat might have been his swan song on DBR?

Is he still on "vacation".

[UrinalCake]

Nassir Little did not receive a vote for ACC ROY. It is being reported that UNC did not submit his name for the award. So there are a few possibilities here:

- the report is incorrect, Little was eligible but nobody voted for him
- Roy is trying to hide Little so that he’ll stay for more than one year
- UNC is run by a bunch of incompetent morons

Either way, my chances at the pie got bumped up just a smidge.

[devildeac]

Nassir Little did not receive a vote for ACC ROY. It is being reported that UNC did not submit his name for the award. So there are a few possibilities here:

- the report is incorrect, Little was eligible but nobody voted for him
- Roy is trying to hide Little so that he’ll stay for more than one year
- UNC is run by a bunch of incompetent morons

Either way, my chances at the pie got bumped up just a smidge.

Easy response to all of the above:

ROY KNEW

(Now, where have I seen that NC license plate before...)

[CameronBornAndBred]

- Roy is trying to hide Little so that he’ll stay for more than one year



Easy response to all of the above:

ROY KNEW

(Now, where have I seen that NC license plate before...)

Totally. Roy hides lots.

[UrinalCake]

Totally. Roy hides lots.

I vaguely recall a couple years ago, another UNC player was never submitted for one of the ACC postseason awards. Might have been Pinson or Berry, I can’t remember. Seems to be a habit around there.

[UrinalCake]

FWIW, I am enjoying the thread over on IC discussing why Little didn’t start in the last exhibition game and only grabbed two rebounds, and why he should come off the bench tonight in favor of Cam Johnson.

[UrinalCake]

Lost in all of our fireworks from yesterday was a quiet 7 point, 2 rebound effort in 20 minutes off the bench for Little. The manner in which these two programs develop one and done players is astounding. Every major basketball analyst I've read/heard says that Little is right up there with our big three in terms of talent. Some say he is in play for the #1 pick. Perhaps those are pundits trying to be contrarian, but the consensus is that he is at least comparable. Maybe he's a notch below Barrett, but he's equal to Zion and Reddish. Yet our guys are scoring 20-30 points apiece against Kentucky while Little is being hidden on the bench.

If Little and Cam Reddish swapped teams, what do you think would happen? Little would have improved his jump shot since arriving in June and would be a featured player scoring 20+ points a game, while Reddish would be benched in favor of Cameron Johnson and probably asked to camp out in the post as a second big.

[SavDukeGrad]

Lost in all of our fireworks from yesterday was a quiet 7 point, 2 rebound effort in 20 minutes off the bench for Little. The manner in which these two programs develop one and done players is astounding. Every major basketball analyst I've read/heard says that Little is right up there with our big three in terms of talent. Some say he is in play for the #1 pick. Perhaps those are pundits trying to be contrarian, but the consensus is that he is at least comparable. Maybe he's a notch below Barrett, but he's equal to Zion and Reddish. Yet our guys are scoring 20-30 points apiece against Kentucky while Little is being hidden on the bench.

If Little and Cam Reddish swapped teams, what do you think would happen? Little would have improved his jump shot since arriving in June and would be a featured player scoring 20+ points a game, while Reddish would be benched in favor of Cameron Johnson and probably asked to camp out in the post as a second big.

I just hope Vernon Carey Jr. And Cole Anthony are paying attention...and watched both games last night! Oh I forgot Boogie Ellis - hope he watched too!

[Troublemaker]

As I wrote below at the time, you're going to come way closer to winning this bet than most assumed.


I'm with you in spirit on this bet for sure. Whereas most probably feel like you have a 5% shot at this, I think it's more like 30-40%.

[UrinalCake]

A detailed scouting breakdown of Little’s struggles. Money quote: “‘They don’t use him the right way,’ offered one Eastern Conference scout.”

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/11/30/nassir-little-north-carolina-nba-draft-challenge-scouting

[UrinalCake]

The Athletic has a deep dive on Little and his early struggles. It’s a pay article so I won’t quote, but two key points that I took away are that a.) yes his limited minutes and the fact that he’s not starting are hurting Roy in recruiting circles b.) Roy is not using him in a way that represents his role at the next level.

There’s a lot more to the article, which I highly recommend. If you don’t have a subscription to the Athletic, ask Santa for one or buy yourself an early Christmas present, it’s totally worth it.

[UrinalCake]

Rob Dauster on the most recent NBC college basketball podcast said that Little is just lost on defense and has no clue what he’s doing. Said he understands why Roy doesn’t play him, and that Little needs to “pull a Harrison Barnes” and come back for a second year otherwise he’ll spend next season wasting away in the G league. Also said that coming to UNC was a terrible decision for him, Arizona or Miami would have been better fits.

This is going to be the best tasting pie I’ve ever had! I only wish I had made the bet with a UNC fan 8-)

[CDu]

Rob Dauster on the most recent NBC college basketball podcast said that Little is just lost on defense and has no clue what he’s doing. Said he understands why Roy doesn’t play him, and that Little needs to “pull a Harrison Barnes” and come back for a second year otherwise he’ll spend next season wasting away in the G league. Also said that coming to UNC was a terrible decision for him, Arizona or Miami would have been better fits.

This is going to be the best tasting pie I’ve ever had! I only wish I had made the bet with a UNC fan 8-)

Eh, I still very much expect him to go pro. No reason to think Roy will use him right next year either. And the fact that scouts believe he is being used incorrectly is all he needs to stay lottery bound.

[UrinalCake]

Bumping this old thread in hopes of catching people's attention. I am now offering a pie to the winner of the DBR Bracket Challenge (see other thread here (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?46416-DBR-Bracket-Challenge-the-Plagued-Year)). You have about three hours to get your picks in.