Which NBA Team is Most Likely To Win Games 6 and 7?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Both teams are the same boat. Cavs and Golden State are heading home facing an elimination game, and need to win two to stay alive. I'd suggest both have a pretty good shot of winning the next game, but which team has the BEST chance to win two and advance to the Finals?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Oh wow, i didn't mean to besmirch Tatum in my poll options. Please ignore.

[Troublemaker]

Oh wow, i didn't mean to besmirch Tatum in my poll options. Please ignore.

Haha, I've been there. We don't do enough polls on DBR, so the poll creators tend to mess up something when creating.

To answer your question, I think Chris Paul's hamstring makes it an easy choice.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Haha, I've been there. We don't do enough polls on DBR, so the poll creators tend to mess up something when creating.

To answer your question, I think Chris Paul's hamstring makes it an easy choice.

Sure. But one could also argue that betting against Lebron winning two in a row in a series where he already won two in a row is a foolish wager.

[Troublemaker]

I have it like this.

75% (Cavs win Game 6) x 45% (Cavs win Game 7) = 33.75% chance of Cavs in the Finals

90% (GSW wins Game 6) x 60% (GSW wins Game 7) = 54% chance of GSW in the Finals

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I have it like this.

75% (Cavs win Game 6) x 45% (Cavs win Game 7) = 33.75% chance of Cavs in the Finals

90% (GSW wins Game 6) x 60% (GSW wins Game 7) = 54% chance of GSW in the Finals

Well, I certainly won't argue with math!

[JasonEvans]

Oh wow, i didn't mean to besmirch Tatum in my poll options. Please ignore.

Mighty moderator has changed the poll to take the Tatum-besmirching out of it.

[JasonEvans]

I have it like this.

75% (Cavs win Game 6) x 45% (Cavs win Game 7) = 33.75% chance of Cavs in the Finals

90% (GSW wins Game 6) x 60% (GSW wins Game 7) = 54% chance of GSW in the Finals

I'd put it at:

85% (Cavs win Game 6) x 30% (Cavs win Game 7) = 25.5% chance of Cavs in the Finals

90% (GSW wins Game 6) x 50% (GSW wins Game 7) = 45% chance of GSW in the Finals

Still, no question that Golden State is the more likely team to reach the finals.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Mighty moderator has changed the poll to take the Tatum-besmirching out of it.

Thanks for saving me from myself

[CDu]

I'd put it at:

85% (Cavs win Game 6) x 30% (Cavs win Game 7) = 25.5% chance of Cavs in the Finals

90% (GSW wins Game 6) x 50% (GSW wins Game 7) = 45% chance of GSW in the Finals

Still, no question that Golden State is the more likely team to reach the finals.

That's pretty darn close to what I'd say too. Both series are HEAVILY likely to go to Game 7. I think the GSW/Hou Game 7 in Houston would be a toss-up (unless Paul is out with a hammy injury, then I'd favor GSW more), whereas I think Boston should be a relatively comfy favorite in their Game 7 since none of those games in Boston have been close.

Assuming Paul is healthy, my numbers would look something like:
GSW: 85-90% game 6, 50% game 7 (42.5-45% chance of winning)
Cleveland: 90% game 6, 35-40% game 7 (31.5-36% chance of winning)

If Paul is out or limited, I'd put GSW as a >50% chance of making it, with nearly a 100% chance of going to game 7.

But either way, yeah, I'd say GSW is the better pick of those two. Which is crazy, considering how much better Houston is than either Eastern team.

[Jeffrey]

I'd put it at:

85% (Cavs win Game 6) x 30% (Cavs win Game 7) = 25.5% chance of Cavs in the Finals

90% (GSW wins Game 6) x 50% (GSW wins Game 7) = 45% chance of GSW in the Finals

Still, no question that Golden State is the more likely team to reach the finals.

When does Jason's Casino open? I'll take the Cavs & GSW with those lines.

Wonder what the current odds are of GSW winning The Finals?

[kAzE]

This is very misleading poll. I picked "Cleveland, because LeBron", because if the Cavs reach the finals, it'll 1000% be LeBron's doing.

I agree Golden State is much more likely to reach the finals . . . but it won't be because of Quinn Cook. (Sorry to be the villain.)

[ncexnyc]

Iggy or CP3, which player will be able to go in Game 6 or Game 7? I didn't like the look on CP3's face last night. It looked as if he knew he had hurt his hamstring really bad. I'll take GSW in 7.

I have full confidence in LeBron in Game 6, but the rest of the team can't seem to find its way to the TD Center, so I'll take Boston in 7, despite LeBron's greatness.

[Jeffrey]

This is very misleading poll.

The mountains are loaded with shine.

[CDu]

This is very misleading poll. I picked "Cleveland, because LeBron", because if the Cavs reach the finals, it'll 1000% be LeBron's doing.

I agree Golden State is much more likely to reach the finals . . . but it won't be because of Quinn Cook. (Sorry to be the villain.)

To be fair, the title of the poll is pretty clear: which team is most likely to win games 6 and 7. Agree that the qualifiers seem silly. But I think that was meant as levity.

[Troublemaker]

When does Jason's Casino open? I'll take the Cavs & GSW with those lines.

Wonder what the current odds are of GSW winning The Finals?

Yeah, I was thinking something similar. Anybody who thinks Houston is a favorite in this series, we can get down on some beer or pie.

[flyingdutchdevil]

How is ‘neither’ not an option ?

I love me some Celtics and I want someone to dethrone the Warriors.

[Troublemaker]

How is ‘neither’ not an option ?

I love me some Celtics and I want someone to dethrone the Warriors.

Because this is a comparative question.

For example, you can have an opinion on whether you'd rather watch Game of Thrones or The Americans without needing to watch either.

"Which team is MOST likely to win" instead of "Which team WILL win"

[JasonEvans]

Yeah, I was thinking something similar. Anybody who thinks Houston is a favorite in this series, we can get down on some beer or pie.

Sadly, the Chris Paul injury changes everything. With no Paul, I'd raise Golden State's chance of reaching the finals to more like 70%.

Minus Paul - 97% (GSW wins Game 6) x 75% (GSW wins Game 7) = 72.75% chance of GSW in the Finals

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

How is ‘neither’ not an option ?

I love me some Celtics and I want someone to dethrone the Warriors.

Yeah, "which is more likely" was intneded to elicit two responses.

[Jeffrey]

Sadly, the Chris Paul injury changes everything. With no Paul, I'd raise Golden State's chance of reaching the finals to more like 70%.

Minus Paul - 97% (GSW wins Game 6) x 75% (GSW wins Game 7) = 72.75% chance of GSW in the Finals

This is why the Casino usually wins. They move the damn lines right before you try to make a prudent wager.

[Indoor66]

you try to make a prudent wager.

There is an oxymoron in there, I think.

[Troublemaker]

Sadly, the Chris Paul injury changes everything. With no Paul, I'd raise Golden State's chance of reaching the finals to more like 70%.

Minus Paul - 97% (GSW wins Game 6) x 75% (GSW wins Game 7) = 72.75% chance of GSW in the Finals

Hmmm, those percentages seem to give GSW TOO much credit now. And they certainly don't match the sportsbooks moneylines; from what I've seen, the betting market estimates GSW to be around an 88% favorite for Game 6, for example. Still a very heavy favorite, but not an astronomical 97% favorite.

One thing to keep in mind about Houston is that they're a very volatile team with how many 3-pt shots they put up. They could randomly have a hot shooting game in one of these next two games. And Harden strikes me as the type of player that when the pressure is off for Game 6 (since nobody expects them to win), his shot could dial in.

[Jeffrey]

There is an oxymoron in there, I think.

Sure, many of us fools wager at the Wall Street Casino daily. The Casino owners are the only certain winners.

[Jeffrey]

Hmmm, those percentages seem to give GSW TOO much credit now.

Agreed! I'm starting to think this is the way Jason's Casino tries to attract players. They'll probably move the damn line again, right before you try to make a prudent wager.

[JNort]

I'd put it at:

85% (Cavs win Game 6) x 30% (Cavs win Game 7) = 25.5% chance of Cavs in the Finals

90% (GSW wins Game 6) x 50% (GSW wins Game 7) = 45% chance of GSW in the Finals

Still, no question that Golden State is the more likely team to reach the finals.


So your telling me there's a chance...


C mon Cavs! Bring daddy home a pie!

[Jeffrey]

When does Jason's Casino open? I'll take the Cavs & GSW with those lines.

Wonder what the current odds are of GSW winning The Finals?


This is why the Casino usually wins. They move the damn lines right before you try to make a prudent wager.

Damn Casino!