Joey Baker re-classifies to 2018

[jamos14]

Huge news for next year.
5 star recruit, Joey Baker is coming in 2018 per his own twitter account.

https://twitter.com/Joey_bvker/status/991800414600351744

[UrinalCake]

Wow, did not see that coming. Is he likely to contribute much?

[mattman91]

Hmmm...cool.

Wonder if this is why we didn't go too hard for Cremo?

[subzero02]

Wow, I didn't see the coaching staff making this move. It worked out well with Bagley and Dawkins but not quite as well with Derryck and Murphy. We are loaded at wing but it sounds like Baker can really shoot.

[MartyClark]

I'm not that familiar with the kid. Can he hit the outside shot?

[jamos14]

We are loaded at wing bit it sounds like Baker can really shoot.

If he can shoot the ball then he is needed. He will have immediate playing time if he's able to stretch the floor.

I don't know much about him though. When you say he can really shoot, can you be a little more specific. How good?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wow, I'm didn't see the coaching staff making this move. It worked out well with Bagley and Dawkins but not quite as well with Derryck and Murphy. We are loaded at wing but it sounds like Baker can really shoot.

And that's why they brought him in. Baker plays the coveted 3/4 at Duke, but we are absolutely loaded at that position. My guess it he's there for pure shooting. If he was never a 4-year player, why not use a year as a spot up shooter as you learn the ropes?

[kAzE]

Holy crap, I did not see this coming. That's amazing news!!!!

The new Fab 5! :D

[mattman91]

If he can shoot the ball then he is needed. He will have immediate playing time if he's able to stretch the floor.

I don't know much about him though. When you say he can really shoot, can you be a little more specific. How good?

According to this video he never misses. Shot 100% from the field!

https://youtu.be/DJg5ufsF7S4

[GeneBanksManCrush]

Supposed to be the real deal...and a 3 point shooter!

https://future150.com/hs/basketball-profiles/joey-baker-pf-2013

[DukeFanSince1990]

According to this video he never misses. Shot 100% from the field!

https://youtu.be/DJg5ufsF7S4

That should come in handy.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Holy crap, I did not see this coming. That's amazing news!!!!

The new Fab 5! :D

Shouldn't we rename them the Fab 3? Because size-wise, they can all play the 3 (except for Tre)?

Coach K is collecting himself a bunch of wings. I love it.

[jipops]

One thing this team really needs is another combo forward.

Unless he is some ridiculous lights out shooter that is also servicable on D, I don’t see him making any impact next season. This is really a bonus for the 2019-20 season where we’ll have one more player with some degree of college experience. But I just don’t see this having any effect on the fortunes of the 18-19 team given K’s proclivity for short rotations.

[chrishoke]

He is not considered a one and done recruit.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Joey: "Hi Coach. Looking forward to playing on the team!"

Coach K: "Great. Now Joey, I'd like you to meet Alex. Alex looked like this a year ago [shows Joey a picture of skin and bones]."

Joey: "Holy hell. I didn't know basketball players could be that skinny."

Coach K: "Yes. But Alex lifted twice a day and ate Nana Tacos for breakfast, a mid-morning snack, lunch, second lunch, afternoon snack, dinner, and pre-bedtime snack. Look at him now."

Joey: "Is that the same guy?"

Coach K: "Yes. And I need you to do the same thing. You'll get destroyed by ACC 3s and 4s. Hell, I'm pretty confident your own teammate - Zion - will absolutely PWN you in your current condition."

Joey: "Anything else?"

Coach K: "Yeah. I don't like it when parents beg me to give their kids extended playing time."

[subzero02]

Holy crap, I did not see this coming. That's amazing news!!!!

The new Fab 5! :D

I wonder if we'll ever see the 5 freshmen lineup this year. Conventional wisdom would place Joey Baker 8th in the rotation at best but we will see.

[907bluedevils]

"However, with a loaded incoming class, Baker also noted that it's possible he'll redshirt next year, opting to use the opportunity to practice against top recruits in order to better prepare himself for the future."

http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2018/05/duke-mens-basketball-recruit-joey-baker-reclassifies-to-2018

[TKG]

Wow, we should go 9 deep next year........😝

[chrishoke]

"However, with a loaded incoming class, Baker also noted that it's possible he'll redshirt next year, opting to use the opportunity to practice against top recruits in order to better prepare himself for the future."

http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2018/05/duke-mens-basketball-recruit-joey-baker-reclassifies-to-2018

That makes sense.

[UrinalCake]

Unless he is some ridiculous lights out shooter that is also servicable on D, I don’t see him making any impact next season. This is really a bonus for the 2019-20 season

This is how I feel as well. We have Javin at the 4, Bolden at the 5, Zion at the 4/5, and Reddish at the 3/4. I don’t see how Baker cracks the rotation unless he can play some stretch 4, or is an amazing defender (which is unlikely). But the following season he could start, having a year of practice and acclimation to college under his belt.

[BD80]

He really wants to see the far-off exotic lands of Canada.

[UrinalCake]

8341

[dukelifer]

One thing this team really needs is another combo forward.

Unless he is some ridiculous lights out shooter that is also servicable on D, I don’t see him making any impact next season. This is really a bonus for the 2019-20 season where we’ll have one more player with some degree of college experience. But I just don’t see this having any effect on the fortunes of the 18-19 team given K’s proclivity for short rotations.

Kid can shoot. He will get better with practice against this group. He would be smart to redshirt - but this team could use another shooter.

[hallcity]

:cool:
He really wants to see the far-off exotic lands of Canada.
Maui isn't a bad trip. Would he be able to go as a redshirt?

[Acymetric]

Seems like we would have to really expect him to stay 4 years to redshirt him, otherwise why not use the extra depth and skill set this year?

[drummerdevil]

Seems like we would have to really expect him to stay 4 years to redshirt him, otherwise why not use the extra depth and skill set this year?

Because K doesn't play that much depth and I think there are 7 guys in the rotation ahead of him (Jones, Barrett, Reddish, Williamson, Bolden, DeLaurier, O'Connell and maybe even someone we wouldn't suspect like White, Robinson or Goldwire). Since he (hopefully) wouldn't have to or get to play meaningful minutes, there's no reason not to save the eligibility and learn for another year.

[CDu]

:cool:
Maui isn't a bad trip. Would he be able to go as a redshirt?

I don’t see why not. Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee did.

[richardjackson199]

Just one opinion, but I don't think Baker will redshirt. He is too good (IMO from what I've read) and this team needs shooting after losing Trent and Grayson.

I think K is gunning for a Natty next year (as always) and will use every available stud player in case we need them. I'm sure glad Grayson was available in 2015 for example. At that time Grayson kept working hard, and was earning minutes and a role well before the National championship game (after Sulaimon was dismissed).

Baker is saying the right things now. He knows he will be playing against and competing against upperclassmen and studs for minutes. So he's coming in assuming he won't be first in line. But he's coming to compete, work, get better, and try to earn minutes. I think he will do just that, and cherish a chance to play an important role on a possibly really special team. It never hurts to have another versatile guy who can put the ball in the basket. We might need more guys like that. I just think Baker is actually underrated and better than advertised.

Also, I honestly don't think K will be coaching Duke 5 years from now (assuming a redshirt from Baker). So deep down, I believe both K and Baker are hopeful that Baker is good enough to earn some important minutes next year.

Plus I like losing the minutes contest. If I pick lots of minutes for a guy who redshirts, that should help my cause!

I expect very good things from Joey Baker, sooner rather than later.

And RJ's pie factory knows a thing or two about a fellow Baker.

[Troublemaker]

One thing this team really needs is another combo forward.

Unless he is some ridiculous lights out shooter that is also servicable on D, I don’t see him making any impact next season. This is really a bonus for the 2019-20 season where we’ll have one more player with some degree of college experience. But I just don’t see this having any effect on the fortunes of the 18-19 team given K’s proclivity for short rotations.

Did Andre Dawkins make an impact in 2010? I'd say so, despite not being all that serviceable on D. I think we realize that a reliable shooter off the bench who's in the rotation every game will be important next season. Alex is the favorite for that role, but why not spread the risk across two or more players if possible? If Alex can't do it, maybe Joey can. If Joey can't do it, maybe Alex can (or Jack or maybe JRob).

In the best-case scenario, we can even dream about TWO shooting threats off the bench in the rotation.

[jimsumner]

This helps to explain why Duke backed off Montgomery.

Baker redshirting only makes sense if Duke expects him around as a redshirt senior. Which is hardly a given for a player ranked where he's ranked.

[richardjackson199]

This helps to explain why Duke backed off Montgomery.

Baker redshirting only makes sense if Duke expects him around as a redshirt senior. Which is hardly a given for a player ranked where he's ranked.

Yep, as Borzello points out - Baker is a 5-star recruit who can fill it up:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23388504/duke-blue-devils-commit-joey-baker-reclassifies-2018-class

Like others, I doubt Baker expects to be OAD. But he's also good enough to think that he might be a pro before being a redshirt senior IMO.

He is wisely getting started on getting better ASAP by playing with the best, playing for the best, playing at the best, and seeing what happens.

[CDu]

This helps to explain why Duke backed off Montgomery.

Baker redshirting only makes sense if Duke expects him around as a redshirt senior. Which is hardly a given for a player ranked where he's ranked.

While I certainly agree here, it is worth noting that Coach K has expressed some regret at not redshirting Ryan Kelly, who was ranked similarly high (#14 in his class).

[jimsumner]

While I certainly agree here, it is worth noting that Coach K has expressed some regret at not redshirting Ryan Kelly, who was ranked similarly high (#14 in his class).

Good point. I wonder if the OAD culture has changed the equation. Then again, we may not have OAD in 2023, so there's some guesswork involved on both ends.

Sigh. If it were easy, everyone would do it.

[DarkstarWahoo]

“I’m coming early.” Are we not doing phrasing anymore?

Nice pickup for you guys. Kid can stroke it.

[MrPoon]

8341

Count me in on the he-plays-next-year camp. Notice he said “soph” may mean nothing but I think he’ll play. Seems like a very different player than the other four freshman.
While not a planned one and done doesn’t mean he plans on being at Duke for 5 years. But I do think either is an interesting move. The talent next year will trump anything he can find in HS and he might have better coaching too!
It may be a battle between him and AOC for a possible redshirt. :). Maybe it will be settled by an eating contest. Both could use some lbs!

[jimsumner]

Count me in on the he-plays-next-year camp. Notice he said “soph” may mean nothing but I think he’ll play. Seems like a very different player than the other four freshman.
While not a planned one and done doesn’t mean he plans on being at Duke for 5 years. But I do think either is an interesting move. The talent next year will trump anything he can find in HS and he might have better coaching too!
It may be a battle between him and AOC for a possible redshirt. :). Maybe it will be settled by an eating contest. Both could use some lbs!

I don't see an O'Connell redshirt. The player most likely to be negatively impacted should Baker play major minutes IMO would be Jack White. It might also limit DeLaurier's minutes at the 3.

But it's still early to process this.

[sagegrouse]

:cool:
Maui isn't a bad trip. Would he be able to go as a redshirt?


Seems like we would have to really expect him to stay 4 years to redshirt him, otherwise why not use the extra depth and skill set this year?

There is no status of "redshirt." If, by the end of the season, a player hasn't been in a game, then he doesn't burn a year of eligibility.

[subzero02]

While I certainly agree here, it is worth noting that Coach K has expressed some regret at not redshirting Ryan Kelly, who was ranked similarly high (#14 in his class).

I was thinking the same thing. Kelly was a McDonald's all American and coach K regretted not making the decision to redshirt him as a freshman. Ryan only averaged 6.5mpg in 35 games during our 2009-2010 championship run. Kelly really could've provided some great leadership and outside shooting to that Parker/Hood combo in 2014 as a 5th year senior.

[CajunDevil]

I think Baker plays next year and contributes at some point. If he can shoot it like his Under Armour circuit numbers suggest (40% from 3) then him, Alex, Cam, Zion, and RJ could be a ridiculous death lineup for stretches. Everyone has said Duke lacks perimeter shooting... well, that is no longer the case.

[Acymetric]

There is no status of "redshirt." If, by the end of the season, a player hasn't been in a game, then he doesn't burn a year of eligibility.

Yes, a redshirt is not designated until after the year is completed. That doesn't mean that there isn't a plan in place before the season for a player to not play so that they are eligible for a redshirt. What I (and some others) are suggesting is that if it seems likely that he would leave after 2-3 years (or 3-4 years if he ends up redshirting), there is no reason not to put him in games this year, even if it is just spot minutes (as opposed to holding him out entirely to preserve the year of eligibility). Basically, if we do not expect him to still be on the team for the 2022-2023 season then why even consider it?

Of course, I do not know how likely he would be to leave before he used up his eligibility, and I'm sure Coach K and Baker can come to a reasonable conclusion on their own without my input. ;)

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I like that he is open to a redshirt and I agree with others that we should see how things play out. If his only minutes are going to be a minute or two at the end of blowouts, let's redshirt him. If it looks like he will be a key contributor to the team, then play him. Also, if he is not looking like he is going to get significant playing time ahead of Javin, Alex and Jack, then that also says something about the likelihood of him going pro early.

I generally am a big fan of redshirting guys (or at least keeping the possibility of redshirting). Kelly wasted a redshirt his freshman year. Vrank played 14 minutes of garbage time his freshman year - odds are he will never develop into a major contributor but it would be nice to have the option to have him around for another year. If a player is only going to play garbage minutes, keep the option to redshirt him, then if an injury or something else creates a need for a change of plans midseason, that can always be done. Coach Cut has increasingly used redshirts and it has helped the program a lot - football is very different than basketball but the logic still applies.

And if Baker sticks around to his senior year, he can be a captain and we can call the team Baker's Dozen...

[Atldukie79]

And maybe, just maybe, spending this year at Duke instead of HS will allow him to increase his chances of attaining a Duke degree.
just thought i would throw that out there, if anyone cares about that academic stuff anymore.

[Troublemaker]

Joey's high school stats (http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/joseph-joey-baker/SQCB0Y09EeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm). He has shooting talent for sure:

https://i.imgur.com/jHLE2Qr.png


Joey's AAU stats so far this summer (http://uaa.io/schedule.aspx?schedule=115). Click on "Stats"

https://i.imgur.com/JulA4iU.png

[uh_no]

And maybe, just maybe, spending this year at Duke instead of HS will allow him to increase his chances of attaining a Duke degree.
just thought i would throw that out there, if anyone cares about that academic stuff anymore.

why bother? he could always pick up one of those mail-order UNC degrees :D

anyway, glad to have him on board. another new face that it'll take me half the season to recognize :))

[CDu]

I don't see an O'Connell redshirt. The player most likely to be negatively impacted should Baker play major minutes IMO would be Jack White. It might also limit DeLaurier's minutes at the 3.

But it's still early to process this.

My sentiments exactly. Seems like this puts the serious squeeze on White's playing time. And while I wouldn't have expected much if any time for DeLaurier at the 3 anyway, if Baker plays that would eliminate those hypothetical minutes altogether.

If he can shoot the way folks say he can shoot, I would be surprised if Baker didn't play. It's no secret that shooting is one of the biggest question marks for next year's team. So adding another guy who can really shoot (especially one who may not mind playing off-ball as a catch-and-shoot guy) would be really helpful. Baker and O'Connell could really play nicely off of the talents of Barrett, Reddish, and Williamson.

[kAzE]

If he can shoot the way folks say he can shoot, I would be surprised if Baker didn't play. It's no secret that shooting is one of the biggest question marks for next year's team. So adding another guy who can really shoot (especially one who may not mind playing off-ball as a catch-and-shoot guy) would be really helpful. Baker and O'Connell could really play nicely off of the talents of Barrett, Reddish, and Williamson.

Is he really that good of a shooter? I'm still not very familiar with the kid's overall game, and most of his youtube clips seem to be AAU footage of him paying against midgets . . .

I'd be really interested to see where he ranks in the class of 2018. He was #27 in the class 2019 on 247 before reclassifying, so it seems like he'd be in the 30s or 40s in the class of 2018.

[JasonEvans]

Joey's high school stats (http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/joseph-joey-baker/SQCB0Y09EeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm). He has shooting talent for sure:

https://i.imgur.com/jHLE2Qr.png

His soph season he scored 465 points in 53 minutes of playing time. That's more than 8 points per minute! Wow! Talk about a scoring machine!

[fraggler]

Is he really that good of a shooter? I'm still not very familiar with the kid's overall game, and most of his youtube clips seem to be AAU footage of him paying against midgets . . .

Shot 40% the last two years in highschool as well as in AAU (avg 80+% from FT). Has a good looking release that isn't too slow or low, so it might not be fool's gold like DeLaurier's 40% in highschool. Doesn't guarantee anything, but definitely looks promising.

[Acymetric]

His soph season he scored 465 points in 53 minutes of playing time. That's more than 8 points per minute! Wow! Talk about a scoring machine!

He clearly averaged 53 minutes per game. Lots of close finishes...all but one game that season went to quintuple OT ;)

[UrinalCake]

I was thinking the same thing. Kelly was a McDonald's all American and coach K regretted not making the decision to redshirt him as a freshman. Ryan only averaged 6.5mpg in 35 games during our 2009-2010 championship run. Kelly really could've provided some great leadership and outside shooting to that Parker/Hood combo in 2014 as a 5th year senior.

As a freshman Ryan was on a team with Lance, Zoubek, MP1 and MP2 all playing ahead of him, plus he was super skinny and not physically ready to make any sort of contribution. Redshirting him would have made perfect sense. In Baker's case he also has a lot of talent in front of him but he might be able to play a role. My guess is that he will get to campus, start practicing with the team, and he and the coaches will see where he stands and what makes the most sense. He doesn't have to make a decision right away, or even when the season starts. Vrank didn't get into a game his freshman year until late in the season when Capel was coaching against Georgia Tech; up until that point he still could have been a redshirt.

I remember Alex Murphy played pretty well on that international trip we took to China, it seemed like he would be in the rotation but then he got a concussion and decided to redshirt. Conversely, many of us speculated that Alex O'Connell might have redshirted last year so he could put on weight, but he ended up playing well when called upon. So who knows, a lot can happen.

[phaedrus]

This is how I feel as well. We have Javin at the 4, Bolden at the 5, Zion at the 4/5, and Reddish at the 3/4. I don’t see how Baker cracks the rotation unless he can play some stretch 4, or is an amazing defender (which is unlikely). But the following season he could start, having a year of practice and acclimation to college under his belt.

And beyond that, what does he offer that AOC cannot? Similar size, both great shooters; AOC has a year of practicing and learning ACC-level offense and defense, while Baker is a more highly-rated recruit based on national rankings.

Of course, I'm happy to have two such players, but it doesn't seem that Baker fills an immediate need for next season given that AOC is on the roster (not to mention our other fairly talented wing-forwards).

[kAzE]

For a non-injury redshirt, does the player have to sit out the entire year?

I think it would be prudent to keep that option open as long as possible, in case he ends up only being a 5-6 minute per game type of contributor as a true freshman. Yes, his shooting (if it lives up to the hype) would be a nice addition to this team, but would that be enough to give up an entire year of eligibility later on?

All of his quotes suggest that the primary reason for his decision to reclassify was to be able to practice against our excellent wing players, while leaving the door wide open for possibly redshirting this year.

[COYS]

This could also be one of the ways the staff manages to provide more continuity from season to season. Bring in non-one and done players as early as they are willing so that they will have an extra year of experience when they are expected to become major contributors.

[Kedsy]

He doesn't have to make a decision right away, or even when the season starts. Vrank didn't get into a game his freshman year until late in the season when Capel was coaching against Georgia Tech; up until that point he still could have been a redshirt.

Antonio Vrankovic played his first game action on November 13 of his freshman year. He had played in four games (13 minutes total) before his one minute of action against Georgia Tech.

[rocketeli]

he hit 93% of his ft (13/14) on the AAU circuit which indicates he really can shoot.
interesting all this nattering about redshirts as come to dominate the thread. underlying anxiety, of course, is how do we keep all these recruits happy with only so many minutes to go around?

[left_hook_lacey]

Wow, we should go 9 deep next year....😝

Ohhhh, you done did it now. :cool:

[CajunDevil]

The word on how to defend Duke next year is to play a packed-in zone, that limits the driving lanes and gives up threes... because Duke can't hit the three consistently. Well, try defending RJ or Cam from the wing or top of key with knock-down shooters (a lineup with AOC and Baker) on either side? So, how about playing a M2M? Well, when you help off of a shooter to not get dunked on by RJ or Cam or Zion, then there is Korver, part II (I know, I know, Baker is far from Korver but they share a resemblance - so there's that) in the corner or on the wing preparing to launch.

This is what K seems to be going for or maybe what I hope he's going for.

[NYBri]

I smell a revised minutes vigil. :cool:

[Indoor66]

I smell a revised minutes vigil. :cool:

May God forgive you for the mere suggestion.... :p:o:cool:

[dukelifer]

he hit 93% of his ft (13/14) on the AAU circuit which indicates he really can shoot.
interesting all this nattering about redshirts as come to dominate the thread. underlying anxiety, of course, is how do we keep all these recruits happy with only so many minutes to go around?

Baker is only needed to come in when Duke is down big and he can hit 5 consecutive three pointers to bring Duke back. That is 4-5 minutes of game time. Should be easy to work him in ;)

[Troublemaker]

And beyond that, what does he offer that AOC cannot? Similar size, both great shooters; AOC has a year of practicing and learning ACC-level offense and defense, while Baker is a more highly-rated recruit based on national rankings.

Of course, I'm happy to have two such players, but it doesn't seem that Baker fills an immediate need for next season given that AOC is on the roster (not to mention our other fairly talented wing-forwards).

The height difference might make Joey a possibility as a stretch-4, something that Alex probably can't play.

But it's also just good to spread your risk across several players. It's not a done deal that Alex is in the rotation next year (although I would regard him as the favorite to be the first perimeter sub, sure). It's not even a done deal that Alex is a great shooter; he only had 45 attempts from three his freshman year, and it's possible he's a 35% shooter who got lucky in limited attempts.

[dukelifer]

The height difference might make Joey a possibility as a stretch-4, something that Alex probably can't play.

But it's also just good to spread your risk across several players. It's not a done deal that Alex is in the rotation next year (although I would regard him as the favorite to be the first perimeter sub, sure). It's not even a done deal that Alex is a great shooter; he only had 45 attempts from three his freshman year, and it's possible he's a 35% shooter who got lucky in limited attempts.

I agree that we do not have a lot of data on Alex but he has a very nice stroke and that bodes well.

[gofurman]

And beyond that, what does he offer that AOC cannot? Similar size, both great shooters; AOC has a year of practicing and learning ACC-level offense and defense, while Baker is a more highly-rated recruit based on national rankings.

Of course, I'm happy to have two such players, but it doesn't seem that Baker fills an immediate need for next season given that AOC is on the roster (not to mention our other fairly talented wing-forwards).

more shooters = better. Even if they are replicas of each other. Watch the NCAA tourney and how Villanova decimated everyone. They had about 7 shooters. I would love 3 or 4 shooters. If we had had 3 shooters maybe we could have survived the nights of Allen and Trent both being off. You want 3 shooters in my opinion.

[Kedsy]

more shooters = better. Even if they are replicas of each other. Watch the NCAA tourney and how Villanova decimated everyone. They had about 7 shooters. I would love 3 or 4 shooters. If we had had 3 shooters maybe we could have survived the nights of Allen and Trent both being off. You want 3 shooters in my opinion.

In 2013-14, Duke had six shooters (J Parker, 36% from three; R Hood 42%; Q Cook 37%; R Sulaimon 41%; A Dawkins 42%; T Thornton 45%), and yet we still shot 23% from three in a loss @ Chapel Hill. And also lost to Mercer. Good shooting teams don't always shoot well, and it takes more than shooters to win.

That said, it certainly can't hurt to have an extra good shooter off the bench. Though as others have said, it's only beneficial if the extra shooter is utilized.

[phaedrus]

more shooters = better. Even if they are replicas of each other. Watch the NCAA tourney and how Villanova decimated everyone. They had about 7 shooters. I would love 3 or 4 shooters. If we had had 3 shooters maybe we could have survived the nights of Allen and Trent both being off. You want 3 shooters in my opinion.

Well, right. I'd take 12 shooters if they were available and I'm happy Baker is joining us. My question about Baker fitting in had more to do with whether his coming early plugs a hole in next year's roster, especially since there are only so many wing minutes to go around.

[MarkD83]

Red-shirt or not ...we should not underestimate the huge benefit of having another body in practice to push everyone.

Without Baker a scrimmage would be

White

Jones
Barrett
Reddish
Williamson
Bolden

Blue

AOC
Goldwire
Javin
White
Vrank /Robinson

I put them this way so that a typical starting team (white) could play together in practice to get better. (You could interchange Bolden and Javin if you wish). With no disrespect how do any of the freshman get pushed to earn playing time if in practice they can win scrimmages based on talent alone. Baker at least gives Coach K a "stick" to say...if you don't play good D I can move Baker to the White team. I am not underestimating that Javin / AOC / White could be used as that threat but that was not really the case this year.

[buddy]

We are all looking at this from Duke's perspective. How about from Baker's. If the NBA changes the OAD rule after next season, he will be one season in, and presumably still go in the draft (if he has an out of this world season), or at worst only have to play one more year to get drafted. If he had not reclassified, and the OAD rule is changed next year, he would have to stay at Duke two seasons from the beginning of the 2019 season. So he buys some draft insurance by coming early. May be too deep here, but I see this as a potentially good move from his perspective, if he really is as good as projected,

[DukieInBrasil]

We are all looking at this from Duke's perspective. How about from Baker's. If the NBA changes the OAD rule after next season, he will be one season in, and presumably still go in the draft (if he has an out of this world season), or at worst only have to play one more year to get drafted. If he had not reclassified, and the OAD rule is changed next year, he would have to stay at Duke two seasons from the beginning of the 2019 season. So he buys some draft insurance by coming early. May be too deep here, but I see this as a potentially good move from his perspective, if he really is as good as projected,

ESPN's ranking service puts him as a 4-star #39, nationally ranked recruit. This puts him outside of the traditional 1-n-Done grade. Doesn't mean he couldn't raise some eyebrows and generate interest if he absolutely blew it up.
For perspective, Luke Kennard, who blew up as a So., owns the Ohio boys career scoring title (surpassing one Mr Lebron James), was #24 and also 4-star. For more perspective, Frank Jackson was #10, and he had a very fine Fr. season and was drafted withe 1st pick in the 2nd round. (all ranks per ESPN via a lazy and quick Google search).
So, using the past as an indicator, it's highly unlikely that anyone, including Mr Baker, is preoccupied with 1nDone status.
Personally, i'd be mildly surprised if Mr Baker were to play himself into draft position by his Jr. year. As such, he'd have to be way better than projected to entertain 1nDone aspirations.

[Kedsy]

ESPN's ranking service puts him as a 4-star #39, nationally ranked recruit.

Wow. Yesterday, ESPN had him ranked #15 in the class of 2019 and today they have him #39 in the class of 2018.

I thought the class of 2018 was supposed to be a weak class?

Also, if he's really a 39-ish prospect, it's a lot less likely that he'll get rotation minutes as a freshman. We might want to scale back our collective expectations.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wow. Yesterday, ESPN had him ranked #15 in the class of 2019 and today they have him #39 in the class of 2018.

I thought the class of 2018 was supposed to be a weak class?

Also, if he's really a 39-ish prospect, it's a lot less likely that he'll get rotation minutes as a freshman. We might want to scale back our collective expectations.

Starter. Avg 36 minutes. 19ppg. Any pie bets?

[kAzE]

Wow. Yesterday, ESPN had him ranked #15 in the class of 2019 and today they have him #39 in the class of 2018.

I thought the class of 2018 was supposed to be a weak class?

Also, if he's really a 39-ish prospect, it's a lot less likely that he'll get rotation minutes as a freshman. We might want to scale back our collective expectations.

I honestly didn't think he would be a rotation player next year. Then again, AOC was ranked lower than him coming in and he managed to crack the rotation. I'm just excited that he's going to have been in the system for a year by 2019-2020, learning from the GOAT and practicing against future All-Stars.

Good Lord that sounds like a long time from now, even though it's really not . . .

[flyingdutchdevil]

I honestly didn't think he would be a rotation player next year. Then again, AOC was ranked lower than him coming in and he managed to crack the rotation. I'm just excited that he's going to have been in the system for a year by 2019-2020, learning from the GOAT and practicing against future All-Stars.

Good Lord that sounds like a long time from now, even though it's really not . . .

It's a long time away. When you live in the Northeast and summer hasn't started yet, anything that happens in the fall is a long ways away. :)

[dukelifer]

Wow. Yesterday, ESPN had him ranked #15 in the class of 2019 and today they have him #39 in the class of 2018.

I thought the class of 2018 was supposed to be a weak class?

Also, if he's really a 39-ish prospect, it's a lot less likely that he'll get rotation minutes as a freshman. We might want to scale back our collective expectations.
Well AOC was 69 in a stronger class- so if he is close to AOC (or even better as I suspect)- that will be pretty good. He is a good shooter and a decent athlete. If he gets AOC minutes- he can have an impact.

[Kedsy]

Well AOC was 69 in a stronger class- so if he is close to AOC (or even better as I suspect)- that will be pretty good. He is a good shooter and a decent athlete. If he gets AOC minutes- he can have an impact.

Well, except Alex isn't the only available data point on this topic.

Duke recruits in the RSCI era ranked from #30 to #100, with freshman year total minutes:

Cook, #31: 387 total minutes
O'Connell, #69: 373
M Jones, #34: 235
Murphy, #49: 194 (redshirt freshman)
McClure, #71: 184
Pocius, #53: 172
Hairston, #32: 165
Mi Plumlee, #81: 165
DeLaurier, #35: 85
Ojeleye, #34: 80
Thompson, #30: 59
Czyz, #66: 51
Boateng, #39: 50
Mar Plumlee, #61: 50 (redshirt freshman)
Tucker, #59: 14 (transfer midseason)

MEAN: 151; MEDIAN: 165.

In other words, a freshman at Duke ranked #39 is unlikely to "get AOC minutes."

[CDu]

Wow. Yesterday, ESPN had him ranked #15 in the class of 2019 and today they have him #39 in the class of 2018.

I thought the class of 2018 was supposed to be a weak class?

Also, if he's really a 39-ish prospect, it's a lot less likely that he'll get rotation minutes as a freshman. We might want to scale back our collective expectations.

We have had guys in that range get minutes. But I saw him as the 8th man anyway. So I was only expecting like 8-12 mpg next year.

[dukelifer]

Well, except Alex isn't the only available data point on this topic.

Duke recruits in the RSCI era ranked from #30 to #100, with freshman year total minutes:

Cook, #31: 387 total minutes
O'Connell, #69: 373
M Jones, #34: 235
Murphy, #49: 194 (redshirt freshman)
McClure, #71: 184
Pocius, #53: 172
Hairston, #32: 165
Mi Plumlee, #81: 165
DeLaurier, #35: 85
Ojeleye, #34: 80
Thompson, #30: 59
Czyz, #66: 51
Boateng, #39: 50
Mar Plumlee, #61: 50 (redshirt freshman)
Tucker, #59: 14 (transfer midseason)

MEAN: 151; MEDIAN: 165.

In other words, a freshman at Duke ranked #39 is unlikely to "get AOC minutes."
Except when every starter left and the team is full of Frosh - I think his data point is the most relevant

[Kedsy]

We have had guys in that range get minutes. But I saw him as the 8th man anyway. So I was only expecting like 8-12 mpg next year.

If he's in the #35 to #45 range, I think your expectation might be high. A more realistic expectation for a Duke freshman 8th man ranked in that range would be 4 to 7 mpg.

Of course, that may not be his ultimate ranking, we'll have to wait and see.


Except when every starter left and the team is full of Frosh - I think his data point is the most relevant

Relevant or not, one data point means nothing. Can't expect it to be reproduced on a regular (or even irregular) basis. Especially when it's a major outlier.

AOC exceeded expectations in a way pretty much no Duke freshman recruit has in at least the past 25 years.

[LasVegas]

For perspective, Luke Kennard, who blew up as a So., owns the Ohio boys career scoring title (surpassing one Mr Lebron James),

Jon Diebler is #1 on the scoring list in Ohio. Not sure how this all got started but you see this misinformation everywhere. Maybe people just assumed lebron was #1?

[dukelifer]

If he's in the #35 to #45 range, I think your expectation might be high. A more realistic expectation for a Duke freshman 8th man ranked in that range would be 4 to 7 mpg.

Of course, that may not be his ultimate ranking, we'll have to wait and see.



Relevant or not, one data point means nothing. Can't expect it to be reproduced on a regular (or even irregular) basis. Especially when it's a major outlier.

AOC exceeded expectations in a way pretty much no Duke freshman recruit has in at least the past 25 years.
Just saying that we are in a new era and I think the past will not be useful in predicting the future. When was the last time that Duke had the same combined scoring and minutes of the returning players? I suspect it has been a VERY long time.

[CDu]

If he's in the #35 to #45 range, I think your expectation might be high. A more realistic expectation for a Duke freshman 8th man ranked in that range would be 4 to 7 mpg.

Of course, that may not be his ultimate ranking, we'll have to wait and see.



Relevant or not, one data point means nothing. Can't expect it to be reproduced on a regular (or even irregular) basis. Especially when it's a major outlier.

AOC exceeded expectations in a way pretty much no Duke freshman recruit has in at least the past 25 years.

I don’t quite agree. The list of players you provided tended to heavily skew towards guys in the 50-100 range. Only about half of them were in the 30-40 range, and most of those were freshmen in different circumstances than Baker will be. Quinn Cook was the #31 recruit in his class, was the 8th man, and averaged 12 mpg. I am not sure many of the others really apply. Boateng, Thompson, and Hairston joined veteran teams and were 10th men, so they naturally didn’t play. Jones and Ojeleye joined a younger but very deep team and were somewhat competing for scraps as the 10th and 11th men. DeLaurier joined a team with a TON of frontcourt guys and was the 11th or 12th man.

Really, Baker’s situation is only comparable to Cook’s. We have seemingly a clearly distinct top 7, with a huge dropoff thereafter. So it would seem pretty reasonable for him to win that 8th spot. And the 8th man at Duke is usually in the 8-12 mpg range.

[Kedsy]

Just saying that we are in a new era and I think the past will not be useful in predicting the future. When was the last time that Duke had the same combined scoring and minutes of the returning players? I suspect it has been a VERY long time.

If the past is not useful in predicting the future, why are you basing your expectations for Baker on AOC? Honestly, if you have to pick the most relevant data point, it would probably be Jordan Tucker (6'7", not particularly athletic, catch-and-shoot guy; on the exact same freshman-dominated team as AOC). Why haven't you based your expectations on him?


I don’t quite agree. The list of players you provided tended to heavily skew towards guys in the 50-100 range. Only about half of them were in the 30-40 range, and most of those were freshmen in different circumstances than Baker will be. Quinn Cook was the #31 recruit in his class, was the 8th man, and averaged 12 mpg. I am not sure many of the others really apply. Boateng, Thompson, and Hairston joined veteran teams and were 10th men, so they naturally didn’t play. Jones and Ojeleye joined a younger but very deep team and were somewhat competing for scraps as the 10th and 11th men. DeLaurier joined a team with a TON of frontcourt guys and was the 11th or 12th man.

Really, Baker’s situation is only comparable to Cook’s. We have seemingly a clearly distinct top 7, with a huge dropoff thereafter. So it would seem pretty reasonable for him to win that 8th spot. And the 8th man at Duke is usually in the 8-12 mpg range.

I don't think his situation is really that comparable to Cook's, who even including the starters was the only point guard on his team (even if you don't credit the difference between #31 and #39, which I think may be bigger than it looks). And I think you're dismissing some of the others too quickly. The 2014 team was exactly what you describe -- a clear top 7 and then a big dropoff; Jones and Ojeleye were competing for 8th man with Josh Hairston and sophomore Marshall Plumlee (who had 50 career minutes at that point). Murphy (who was a redshirt freshman so he'd practiced with the team for a year) was also competing for 8th man with Josh Hairston. How much harder a competition was that than Baker will have with Jack White? Marty Pocius was the 8th man on his team, and he only played 4.8 mpg. And you too are dismissing Tucker, who to me seems pretty much the same sort of player as Baker.

Again, this is assuming Joey Baker comes in at #39. He could very well be ranked better, and then the conversation might be different.

[CDu]

If the past is not useful in predicting the future, why are you basing your expectations for Baker on AOC? Honestly, if you have to pick the most relevant data point, it would probably be Jordan Tucker (6'7", not particularly athletic, catch-and-shoot guy; on the exact same freshman-dominated team as AOC). Why haven't you based your expectations on him?



I don't think his situation is really that comparable to Cook's, who even including the starters was the only point guard on his team (even if you don't credit the difference between #31 and #39, which I think may be bigger than it looks). And I think you're dismissing some of the others too quickly. The 2014 team was exactly what you describe -- a clear top 7 and then a big dropoff; Jones and Ojeleye were competing for 8th man with Josh Hairston and sophomore Marshall Plumlee (who had 50 career minutes at that point). Murphy (who was a redshirt freshman so he'd practiced with the team for a year) was also competing for 8th man with Josh Hairston. How much harder a competition was that than Baker will have with Jack White? Marty Pocius was the 8th man on his team, and he only played 4.8 mpg. And you too are dismissing Tucker, who to me seems pretty much the same sort of player as Baker.

Again, this is assuming Joey Baker comes in at #39. He could very well be ranked better, and then the conversation might be different.

Yeah, I am absolutely not buying that there is some sort of distinguishable difference between #31 in a class and #39. The difference between #1 and #9? Absolutely. But after about 25, I think there is a lot of noise. I would argue 39 is a lot more like 31 than 59, the example you serm to want to reference.

And about that Tucker reference. Yes, Tucker wasn’t in the rotation. Want to know why? Because he was competing with two other freshman for that 8th/9th spot, and he lost. One of them averaged 10+ mpg as 8th man.

You bring up Pocius too, presumably out of convenience. He happens to be comfortably, the lowest mpg 8th man in recent Duke memory. Heck, we frequently have 9th and 10th men who play more than he did. I certainly wouldn’t point to him as a point of reference here, as a #53 recruit guard on a senior-dominated backcourt.

And that comparison to Murphy? Really? Hairston, a top-35 recruit, versus White, a sub-200 recruit. Yeah, not buying it.

Same for Jones and Ojeleye. Hairston and third-year, top-75 recruit Plumlee definitely to White. And STILL that pair of freshmen combined to average 9 mpg as the 10th/11th men. Baker won’t be competing with another frosh for that 8th spot like Ojeleye and Jones were.

So yeah, I still feel pretty strongly that a top-40 Baker will - if not redshirted strategically - average 8-12 mpg. I think his rating and his situation are a lot more comparable to Cook’s than the others. And even some of the others (the O’Connell/Ticker duo, the Jones/Ojeleye duo) averaged 8-12 mpg.

[UrinalCake]

In 2013-14, Duke had six shooters... and yet we still shot 23% from three in a loss @ Chapel Hill. And also lost to Mercer. Good shooting teams don't always shoot well, and it takes more than shooters to win.


How about our 1996-97 team that featured Langdon (44.1%), Capel (43.7%), Wojo (39.4%), McLeod (37.5%), and Carmen Wallace (44.0%). They shot 38.9% as a team, went 24-9 and didn't get out of the first weekend.

This whole narrative of "we need shooters" is pretty short-sighted IMO. Last year's team needed one more shooter. But it's not the single factor that solely determines a team's success. And our team's style next year will not resemble Villanova's at all.

[jipops]

Did Andre Dawkins make an impact in 2010? I'd say so, despite not being all that serviceable on D. I think we realize that a reliable shooter off the bench who's in the rotation every game will be important next season. Alex is the favorite for that role, but why not spread the risk across two or more players if possible? If Alex can't do it, maybe Joey can. If Joey can't do it, maybe Alex can (or Jack or maybe JRob).

In the best-case scenario, we can even dream about TWO shooting threats off the bench in the rotation.

Andre played because he was the ONLY rotational perimeter player. Joey essentially fills the same role as at least two other far more talented combo forwards and he’s not going to fill in at guard. Given K’s consistent preferences in rotations, I just don’t see him playing at all past the month of December. Now if he turns out to be some Kyle Korver-like perimeter threat then things could change some as this team will be very much in need of shooters. But that just seems very unlikely.

[dukelifer]

If the past is not useful in predicting the future, why are you basing your expectations for Baker on AOC? Honestly, if you have to pick the most relevant data point, it would probably be Jordan Tucker (6'7", not particularly athletic, catch-and-shoot guy; on the exact same freshman-dominated team as AOC). Why haven't you based your expectations on him?



I don't think his situation is really that comparable to Cook's, who even including the starters was the only point guard on his team (even if you don't credit the difference between #31 and #39, which I think may be bigger than it looks). And I think you're dismissing some of the others too quickly. The 2014 team was exactly what you describe -- a clear top 7 and then a big dropoff; Jones and Ojeleye were competing for 8th man with Josh Hairston and sophomore Marshall Plumlee (who had 50 career minutes at that point). Murphy (who was a redshirt freshman so he'd practiced with the team for a year) was also competing for 8th man with Josh Hairston. How much harder a competition was that than Baker will have with Jack White? Marty Pocius was the 8th man on his team, and he only played 4.8 mpg. And you too are dismissing Tucker, who to me seems pretty much the same sort of player as Baker.

Again, this is assuming Joey Baker comes in at #39. He could very well be ranked better, and then the conversation might be different.

Well I originally said- if he gets AOC minutes- he will have an impact. I think everyone has Baker much higher than Tucker (who was rated much lower than AOC). Baker is a 5 star player who has shown the ability to create his own shot. He and Tucker may be the same size- but there is a difference in talent.

[kAzE]

I don’t quite agree. The list of players you provided tended to heavily skew towards guys in the 50-100 range. Only about half of them were in the 30-40 range, and most of those were freshmen in different circumstances than Baker will be. Quinn Cook was the #31 recruit in his class, was the 8th man, and averaged 12 mpg. I am not sure many of the others really apply. Boateng, Thompson, and Hairston joined veteran teams and were 10th men, so they naturally didn’t play. Jones and Ojeleye joined a younger but very deep team and were somewhat competing for scraps as the 10th and 11th men. DeLaurier joined a team with a TON of frontcourt guys and was the 11th or 12th man.

Really, Baker’s situation is only comparable to Cook’s. We have seemingly a clearly distinct top 7, with a huge dropoff thereafter. So it would seem pretty reasonable for him to win that 8th spot. And the 8th man at Duke is usually in the 8-12 mpg range.

I know I'm gonna get ripped for this, but I don't see Baker surpassing Jack White in the rotation this year. Joey Baker is 17 years old. He doesn't turn 18 until September. He's a 6'7" kid who weighs 190 pounds.

Meanwhile, Jack is a rugged 230, is a pretty decent defender, gets a lot of rebounds (especially offensive rebounds) in traffic, and knows how to be the glue guy on the floor. I just don't see Baker being ready physically at this point to beat out a junior who is less talented, yes, but way more physically prepared for this level of hoops, and is most likely a better defender right now. If Jack continues to improve along his current trajectory, I do think he will be a part of the rotation.

I actually don't think we saw his best shooting from 3 last year, either. It's possible he could develop a decent jumper. He's certainly going to get wide open looks. His path to playing time is being able to knock those down.

Remember, I said 3rd year! :D

But as others have said, Baker plays on the wing, where Cam and RJ are going to hogging just about all available minutes. Jack is a college 4 no question. I'm not buying that a 190 pound kid can play power forward.

Baker is gonna be a big time player, but not in 2018-19. Seems like very possible that he'll red shirt.

[richardjackson199]

I know I'm gonna get ripped for this, but I don't buy Baker surpassing Jack White in the rotation this year. Joey Baker is 17 years old. He doesn't turn 18 until September. He's a 6'7" kid who weighs 190 pounds.

Meanwhile, Jack is a rugged 230, is a pretty decent defender, gets a lot of rebounds (especially offensive rebounds) in traffic, and knows how to be the glue guy on the floor. I just don't see Baker being ready physically at this point to beat out a Junior who is less talented, yes, but way more physically prepared for this level of hoops, and is probably a better defender right now. If Jack continues to improve along his current trajectory, I do think he will be a part of the rotation.

I actually don't think we saw his best shooting from 3 last year, either. It's possible he could develop a decent jumper. He's certainly going to get wide open looks. His path to playing time is being able to knock those down.

Remember, I said 3rd year! :D

Baker is gonna be a big time player, but not in 2018-19. Seems like very possible that he'll red shirt.

You might be right. But I think not.

I would wager you a friendly pie that Joey Baker plays more minutes next season than Jack White. Here's your chance to join the exclusive DBR RJ's Pie-Bakery Winners Club. Your're either in or you're out: :p

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mKGhfKn3Kk

[kAzE]

You might be right. But I think not.

I would wager you a friendly pie that Joey Baker plays more minutes next season than Jack White. Here's your chance to join the exclusive DBR RJ's Pie-Bakery Winners Club. Your're either in or you're out: :p

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mKGhfKn3Kk

Oh, of course I'm 100% in.

For those who don't know, I proclaimed when Jack White committed to Duke that he would be a rotation player by year 3. I still stand 100% by that. He will be the 8th man. Mark my words.

[richardjackson199]

Oh, of course I'm 100% in.

For those who don't know, I proclaimed when Jack White committed to Duke that he would be a rotation player by year 3. I still stand 100% by that. He will be the 8th man. Mark my words.

Shakes on it.

Jack White plays more minutes next season - you win the pie. Joey Baker plays more minutes, I win the pie.

Good luck! :cool:

[devildeac]

Shakes on it.

Jack White plays more minutes next season - you win the pie. Joey Baker plays more minutes, I win the pie.

Good luck! :cool:

I guess you're not gonna have enough money saved up/leftover for a couple growlers for a football tailgate or two this season. :p

[richardjackson199]

I guess you're not gonna have enough money saved up/leftover for a couple growlers for a football tailgate or two this season. :p

I'll be there. And by then I'll probably owe the tailgate a pie or two.

Maybe Shepherd's pie with some stout. :eek:

[Troublemaker]

Andre played because he was the ONLY rotational perimeter player. Joey essentially fills the same role as at least two other far more talented combo forwards and he’s not going to fill in at guard. Given K’s consistent preferences in rotations, I just don’t see him playing at all past the month of December. Now if he turns out to be some Kyle Korver-like perimeter threat then things could change some as this team will be very much in need of shooters. But that just seems very unlikely.

Off the bench, though? I don't think so, and his role would be very different as a catch-and-shoot player. If Joey's a knockdown shooter, he has a chance for playing time. That said, I think we're talking past each other as you seem to agree that a shooter off the bench would "make an impact." You just don't think that person will be him (or that we might bring two off the bench).

[devildeac]

I'll be there. And by then I'll probably owe the tailgate a pie or two.

Maybe Shepherd's pie with some stout. :eek:

TNTDevil and CameronBornAndBred might help you with #1.

Your "gal" Stella could certainly assist with #2.

;)

[Kedsy]

I think everyone has Baker much higher than Tucker (who was rated much lower than AOC).

Tucker was #59, AOC was #69. So you're wrong about that, at least.

[dukelifer]

Tucker was #59, AOC was #69. So you're wrong about that, at least.

Sorry - I was looking at Rivals rankings.

[UrinalCake]

Jack White vs. Joey Baker minutes is a pretty even bet IMO. White provides toughness, defense and rebounding, something our team as a whole will really need. Baker has a higher ceiling as far as minutes, but there’s also the possibility that he redshirts.

[curtis325]

Shakes on it.

Jack White plays more minutes next season - you win the pie. Joey Baker plays more minutes, I win the pie.

Good luck! :cool:

I guess this pie bet means that Baker will definitely be redshirting*.

It's a lock!

*Based on richardjackson199's history. :)

[elvis14]

Reading this thread I'm very glad to hear that JB isn't projected to be yet another OAD player. I would really like to see our coaching staff make an adjustment considering our current circumstances and get multi-year players more playing time as freshman., even if it means benching a more talented OAD player. In the short term it might mean a few more losses but it could mean more wins in the long term (and frankly even if it doesn't mean more wins I'd like to see multi-year players be given precedence).

After thinking about it for a few days, I am happy that Joey decided to come early. He could help some in the 18-19 season and will be much more ready to contribute in the 19-20 season.

[cato]

Reading this thread I'm very glad to hear that JB isn't projected to be yet another OAD player. I would really like to see our coaching staff make an adjustment considering our current circumstances and get multi-year players more playing time as freshman., even if it means benching a more talented OAD player. In the short term it might mean a few more losses but it could mean more wins in the long term (and frankly even if it doesn't mean more wins I'd like to see multi-year players be given precedence).

After thinking about it for a few days, I am happy that Joey decided to come early. He could help some in the 18-19 season and will be much more ready to contribute in the 19-20 season.

Huh. I am *much* more uncomfortable with the increase in high school players reclassifying than college players going pro (both expected and unexpected).

[elvis14]

Huh. I am *much* more uncomfortable with the increase in high school players reclassifying than college players going pro (both expected and unexpected).

That's a fair point. From an educational and a social growth standpoint, I wouldn't want my kids rushing through HS.

[FerryFor50]

“I’m coming early.” Are we not doing phrasing anymore?

Nice pickup for you guys. Kid can stroke it.

Uh, phrasing?

[DukieInBrasil]

Jon Diebler is #1 on the scoring list in Ohio. Not sure how this all got started but you see this misinformation everywhere. Maybe people just assumed lebron was #1?

i merely put Lebron's name in the discussion because he's from Ohio and he's a name that everyone knows and is maybe the best player ever, not necessarily to insinuate that he owns or owned the state scoring title. Otherwise, you're right, Luke finished his HS career as #2 to Diebler, by a rather comfortable margin.

Otherwise, glad to see the minute's discussion in fine pre-season form already!!!
As i mentioned earlier, i think Mr Joey Baker's minutes will hinge entirely on whether the rest of the SG/SF/Wing gang shoots the 3ball well. If all/several/some of those "ahead" of him in the rotation consistently shoot it well, i just don't see how Joey gets on the court, barring a rather major shift in coaching philosophy by K. But like AOC last year, if he provides something that others can't, he'll play.

[DukieInBrasil]

Huh. I am *much* more uncomfortable with the increase in high school players reclassifying than college players going pro (both expected and unexpected).

i don't know if it's the case for Joey, but lots of kids are re-classifying back to their original grade level due to being held back or whatever earlier.

[-bdbd]

Will it be a first when we play five guys at the same time all at the same (6’7”) height next year??? Will be fun to watch.

[cato]

i don't know if it's the case for Joey, but lots of kids are re-classifying back to their original grade level due to being held back or whatever earlier.

I realize that. And I do not like any of it. The switching of the schools, the moving back and forth between classes. It bothers me a lot more than players leaving college.

[UrinalCake]

So could someone describe his actual game to me? When he committed to us I thought of him as a stretch-4 undersized big guy. Now we’ve got people describing him as a wing who shoots lights out, while Mr. Sumner hinted that his reclassification played a role in backing off of Montgomery, a 6’10 guy we thought would play center.

[kAzE]

i don't know if it's the case for Joey, but lots of kids are re-classifying back to their original grade level due to being held back or whatever earlier.

Joey did not get held back. He's 17 years old, and doesn't turn 18 til after the school year starts. When he said that he's coming early, he meant it.

Marvin Bagley, for example, is already 19. I don't know that he was ever held back, but he was already 18.5 years old when last season started.

[BD80]

Will it be a first when we play five guys at the same time all at the same (6’7”) height next year??? Will be fun to watch.

But how will we tell them apart?

[jimsumner]

Baker is listed as 6-7, 190. But I understand he's closer to 6-8, 200 and is still growing.

I suspect he ends up as a stretch 4. I'm told he's more Ryan Kelly than Kyle Singler.

Montgomery is a very thin 6-10, around 200-205 pounds.

In other words, 20-25 pounds lighter than Javin DeLaurier.

Not really a back-to-the-basket 5. Maybe an Amile Jefferson, circa 2014 center.

Montgomery wants to be a OAD stretch 4. Hard to see how that could have happened at Duke.

[fraggler]

So could someone describe his actual game to me? When he committed to us I thought of him as a stretch-4 undersized big guy. Now we’ve got people describing him as a wing who shoots lights out, while Mr. Sumner hinted that his reclassification played a role in backing off of Montgomery, a 6’10 guy we thought would play center.

From what I get from his videos, especially the ones against better competition at camps, he definitely plays as a wing. Smooth 3 point shooter, decent slasher, handles and passes well on the break, and relatively few post ups. Not a top tier athlete, but fluid and active. Shades of Dunleavy and Kelly.

[Troublemaker]

So could someone describe his actual game to me? When he committed to us I thought of him as a stretch-4 undersized big guy. Now we’ve got people describing him as a wing who shoots lights out, while Mr. Sumner hinted that his reclassification played a role in backing off of Montgomery, a 6’10 guy we thought would play center.

I mean, while youtube isn't good for a complete scouting report (because negatives aren't usually included), I think it's perfectly fine for getting a general feel for a player's game. Below is a recent one of him from this summer's AAU play.

He looks to be a big wing with a very nice stroke, including a high release. Athletic enough to dunk with ease, but that's not his calling card. At Duke, historically, Joey is more likely to be a stretch-4 than a 3, but some of that depends on whom we manage to recruit successfully in future classes.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rp3ZBJPM1og

[LasVegas]

i merely put Lebron's name in the discussion because he's from Ohio and he's a name that everyone knows and is maybe the best player ever, not necessarily to insinuate that he owns or owned the state scoring title. Otherwise, you're right, Luke finished his HS career as #2 to Diebler, by a rather comfortable margin.

Otherwise, glad to see the minute's discussion in fine pre-season form already!!!
As i mentioned earlier, i think Mr Joey Baker's minutes will hinge entirely on whether the rest of the SG/SF/Wing gang shoots the 3ball well. If all/several/some of those "ahead" of him in the rotation consistently shoot it well, i just don't see how Joey gets on the court, barring a rather major shift in coaching philosophy by K. But like AOC last year, if he provides something that others can't, he'll play.

I mean you literally said that Kennard owns the Ohio boys career scoring title. But hey, not trying to be rude. Just trying to clear up misinformation.

[phaedrus]

Uh, phrasing?

There's gotta be a better way to say that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nI69Q7bS2E

[Ian]

I realize that. And I do not like any of it. The switching of the schools, the moving back and forth between classes. It bothers me a lot more than players leaving college.

I know plenty of kids who graduated HS early. Why does this bother you?

[MCFinARL]

I realize that. And I do not like any of it. The switching of the schools, the moving back and forth between classes. It bothers me a lot more than players leaving college.

FWIW, I think there has been a general societal trend in the last 30-odd years to start boys later, especially if they would be on the young side in their original class, so that they will be more mature and ready to thrive in the atmosphere of school. My daughter, high school class of 2004 with a June birthday, was a year or more younger than several of her male classmates, none of whom had been held back after starting.

This is not to say that there aren't kids who are started late or held back specifically to improve their competitive position in sports--obviously there are. It's also not to say that starting kids late for these non-sports reasons is necessarily a good idea. But what you are talking about here isn't just a sports thing.

[cato]

I know plenty of kids who graduated HS early. Why does this bother you?

Plenty? I knew a handful. Maybe 3 or 4, although I could be misremembering, since I do not remember what I had for lunch two days ago. Their experiences and outcomes in college certainly impacts my feelings about the subject.

When I was in elementary school, it was common for smart kids to be advanced. Now that I have a second grader, I *never* hear of that. In her public school system, you cannot do it. Maybe kids in private school still get pushed to grades with older kids, but my understanding of current thinkings is that it is better for a child to be with their developmental peers than their scholastic ones.

I don’t know why children who excel at sports should be more subject to getting yanked around between schools and grade levels. Seems to me teens deserve stability, structure and accountability.

So yeah. I don’t get why some sports fans get all antsy about 19 year olds going pro, but do not care about how sports are shaping the lives of teenagers.

[Matches]

FWIW, I think there has been a general societal trend in the last 30-odd years to start boys later, especially if they would be on the young side in their original class, so that they will be more mature and ready to thrive in the atmosphere of school. My daughter, high school class of 2004 with a June birthday, was a year or more younger than several of her male classmates, none of whom had been held back after starting.

This is not to say that there aren't kids who are started late or held back specifically to improve their competitive position in sports--obviously there are. It's also not to say that starting kids late for these non-sports reasons is necessarily a good idea. But what you are talking about here isn't just a sports thing.

Both of my kids were encouraged to wait until age 5 to start pre-K. I am not a fan of the idea. I mean, if they'd been held back until they were 10 they could have *demolished* school but why do that? I do tend to think a lot of it is motivated by sports, and particularly the desire to have more physically mature high school football players. My kids are both girls so that wasn't the case with them but I do think that's a very large part of the impetus.

[cato]

But what you are talking about here isn't just a sports thing.

There are lots of high school kids switching schools year after year, moving up or down grades and skipping their senior year of high school for non-sports reasons?

[Reilly]

... teens deserve stability, structure and accountability ...

stability (sturdy couch), structure (video games all day/every day), and accountability (the games are scored) ...

[ChillinDuke]

I mean, while youtube isn't good for a complete scouting report (because negatives aren't usually included), I think it's perfectly fine for getting a general feel for a player's game. Below is a recent one of him from this summer's AAU play.

He looks to be a big wing with a very nice stroke, including a high release. Athletic enough to dunk with ease, but that's not his calling card. At Duke, historically, Joey is more likely to be a stretch-4 than a 3, but some of that depends on whom we manage to recruit successfully in future classes.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rp3ZBJPM1og

Love him. Like his style. Like his stroke.

Not convinced he'll be ready for meaningful minutes next year.

- Chillin

[mr. synellinden]

I mean, while youtube isn't good for a complete scouting report (because negatives aren't usually included), I think it's perfectly fine for getting a general feel for a player's game. Below is a recent one of him from this summer's AAU play.

He looks to be a big wing with a very nice stroke, including a high release. Athletic enough to dunk with ease, but that's not his calling card. At Duke, historically, Joey is more likely to be a stretch-4 than a 3, but some of that depends on whom we manage to recruit successfully in future classes.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rp3ZBJPM1og

Watching that video, I'll tell you of whom he reminds me - Jayson Tatum. He doesn't have the NBA body yet and I'm not saying he'll ever be as talented or make that kind of impact at any level. It's just the way he moves and shoots - there is kind of a slow motion fluidity that Tatum has. One of the interesting things about Tatum is that he's not the fastest or most explosive. Rather he just has a smoothness in body motion that helps him drive and finish - similar to Grant Hill. I think once Baker gets a little more muscle he can be an effective college player - I see potential All-ACC caliber. Also reminds me a little of Kyle Guy, who was similarly ranked in high school - 27 ESPN; 32 RSCI.

[Ian]

Plenty? I knew a handful. Maybe 3 or 4, although I could be misremembering, since I do not remember what I had for lunch two days ago. Their experiences and outcomes in college certainly impacts my feelings about the subject.

When I was in elementary school, it was common for smart kids to be advanced. Now that I have a second grader, I *never* hear of that. In her public school system, you cannot do it. Maybe kids in private school still get pushed to grades with older kids, but my understanding of current thinkings is that it is better for a child to be with their developmental peers than their scholastic ones.

I don’t know why children who excel at sports should be more subject to getting yanked around between schools and grade levels. Seems to me teens deserve stability, structure and accountability.

So yeah. I don’t get why some sports fans get all antsy about 19 year olds going pro, but do not care about how sports are shaping the lives of teenagers.

Yes I knew a family that every child (4 of them) graduates HS at 16. Some did better than others in college, but I am not convinced the ones who didn't would have done any better if he waited until he was 18. It's no different than people who turn pro at 18. It's not for everyone, but it's a legit choice for them either way. I don't see why getting out of HS early is any different than that.

[cato]

Yes I knew a family that every child (4 of them) graduates HS at 16. Some did better than others in college, but I am not convinced the ones who didn't would have done any better if he waited until he was 18. It's no different than people who turn pro at 18. It's not for everyone, but it's a legit choice for them either way. I don't see why getting out of HS early is any different than that.

Graduating high school at 16. God speed.

[ChillinDuke]

Watching that video, I'll tell you of whom he reminds me - Jayson Tatum. He doesn't have the NBA body yet and I'm not saying he'll ever be as talented or make that kind of impact at any level. It's just the way he moves and shoots - there is kind of a slow motion fluidity that Tatum has. One of the interesting things about Tatum is that he's not the fastest or most explosive. Rather he just has a smoothness in body motion that helps him drive and finish - similar to Grant Hill. I think once Baker gets a little more muscle he can be an effective college player - I see potential All-ACC caliber. Also reminds me a little of Kyle Guy, who was similarly ranked in high school - 27 ESPN; 32 RSCI.

I don't see that, to be honest. But I do like what I see.

- Chillin

[CDu]

I don't see that, to be honest. But I do like what I see.

- Chillin

Yeah, the only clear similarities I see between Baker and Tatum or Guy is the arm sleeve.

[LasVegas]

Yes I knew a family that every child (4 of them) graduates HS at 16. Some did better than others in college, but I am not convinced the ones who didn't would have done any better if he waited until he was 18. It's no different than people who turn pro at 18. It's not for everyone, but it's a legit choice for them either way. I don't see why getting out of HS early is any different than that.

How is college even fun at 16? College was the best experience of my life and my junior/senior year of high school are close behind. It’s a time where you grow up and get to do a lot of stupid crap with all your buddies. It’s awesome.

[kAzE]

Watching that video, I'll tell you of whom he reminds me - Jayson Tatum. He doesn't have the NBA body yet and I'm not saying he'll ever be as talented or make that kind of impact at any level. It's just the way he moves and shoots - there is kind of a slow motion fluidity that Tatum has. One of the interesting things about Tatum is that he's not the fastest or most explosive. Rather he just has a smoothness in body motion that helps him drive and finish - similar to Grant Hill. I think once Baker gets a little more muscle he can be an effective college player - I see potential All-ACC caliber. Also reminds me a little of Kyle Guy, who was similarly ranked in high school - 27 ESPN; 32 RSCI.

Just as a cautionary tale, a lot of people watched videos of Alex Murphy in high school and swore he was a clone of Kyle Singler . . .

I was one of them. I have wizened up since then.

[Ian]

How is college even fun at 16? College was the best experience of my life and my junior/senior year of high school are close behind. It’s a time where you grow up and get to do a lot of stupid crap with all your buddies. It’s awesome.

I could ask how's being a professional at 18 even fun? Different people have different priorities and definitions of fun.

[mr. synellinden]

Just as a cautionary tale, a lot of people watched videos of Alex Murphy in high school and swore he was a clone of Kyle Singler . . .

I was one of them. I have wizened up since then.

Just to be clear here - I'm not comparing talent - I'm not saying he's the next BLANK. It's just style of player, the way he moves on the court, the skills that stand out, etc. That's who he reminds me of from 90 seconds of video. Tatum kind of looks like he's moving slow on the court and then he's at the rim finishing a layup. It's a slow smooth shooting stroke, a few hesitation delay moves to beat the defender, etc. Baker seems to play that way.

And FWIW - he is the #15 player in his class for a reason. He has talent. http://www.draftexpress.com/article/under-armour-association-measurements-analysis-5924/

[Kedsy]

One of the interesting things about Tatum is that he's not the fastest or most explosive. Rather he just has a smoothness in body motion that helps him drive and finish - similar to Grant Hill.

Except Grant Hill was the most explosive, most athletic player. The smoothness was gravy.


And FWIW - he is the #15 player in his class for a reason. He has talent.

Except apparently he's not the #15 player in his class anymore. ESPN had him ranked #15 in the 2019 class (though most of the other services seemed to be in the mid- to late-20s). But now that he's reclassifying, ESPN changed him to #39 in the class of 2018. We don't yet know how the other services will change his rank, but it seems pretty clear that when RSCI comes out he won't be #15 in the 2018 class.

[jipops]

Off the bench, though? I don't think so, and his role would be very different as a catch-and-shoot player. If Joey's a knockdown shooter, he has a chance for playing time. That said, I think we're talking past each other as you seem to agree that a shooter off the bench would "make an impact." You just don't think that person will be him (or that we might bring two off the bench).

I think the only guys coming off the bench will be AOC, Javin, and maybe Goldwire. That's it. And this is based on the short rotation that K always employs. I think he's going to leverage the versatility of Reddish, Barrett, and Zion as inside/outside combo forwards as much as possible in his rotation replacing one with AOC as another slides to another spot. That leaves Jack White competing with Baker for spot duty. I just see it extremely unlikely that K plays enough guys to provide for Baker to get any sort of significant burn in the meat of the season. Though obviously injuries can change things. But this seems to be meant as more of an impact move for 19-20.

[BD80]

Just as a cautionary tale, a lot of people watched videos of Alex Murphy in high school and swore he was a clone of Kyle Singler . . .

I was one of them. I have wizened up since then.

Well, the two played about the same number of minutes in the NBA this past season.

[dukelifer]

Well, the two played about the same number of minutes in the NBA this past season.

But the real salary per minute for one was amazingly high

[tbyers11]

But the real salary per minute for one was amazingly high

and MUCH higher than the other salary :)

[lotusland]

His soph season he scored 465 points in 53 minutes of playing time. That's more than 8 points per minute! Wow! Talk about a scoring machine!

So down 40 with 5 minutes to play is Baker time! We’ll just need to play shutdown defense and let Joey take us ito OT with a chance for the win:).

[Duke76]

Yeah, the only clear similarities I see between Baker and Tatum or Guy is the arm sleeve.

i'd say more like Mike Dunleavy

[GeneBanksManCrush]

i'd say more like Mike Dunleavy


*Raising hand*

I'll take another Dunleavy!!

[NSDukeFan]

Yeah, the only clear similarities I see between Baker and Tatum or Guy is the arm sleeve.


i'd say more like Mike Dunleavy

I don't remember Mike Dunleavy wearing an arm sleeve. 😀

[kAzE]

i'd say more like Mike Dunleavy

I definitely don't like that comparison, either . . . Dunleavy was a 6'3" guard when he was 16, but grew really tall late in his high school career. But he still had guard skills, even at 6'9". Joey has neither the size nor the skills of Mike Dunleavy.

[mattman91]

I definitely don't like that comparison, either . . . Dunleavy was a 6'3" guard when he was 16, but grew really tall late in his high school career. But he still had guard skills, even at 6'9". Joey has neither the size nor the skills of Mike Dunleavy.

Yeah, lanky white guy. That's about it.

I don't like comparisons, but I think even if you wanted to make one, you would need to wait until they have actually played a few collegiate games before doing so.

[Indoor66]

Yeah, lanky white guy. That's about it.

I don't like comparisons, but I think even if you wanted to make one, you would need to wait until they have actually played a few collegiate games before doing so.

Nooooo, not a voice of reason during the of season - or ever on DBR!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Nooooo, not a voice of reason during the of season - or ever on DBR!

Reason is fine....speculating is more fun!

[dukelifer]

Reason is fine...speculating is more fun!

A cross between Redick on O and Battier on D- while we are speculating

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yeah, lanky white guy. That's about it.

I don't like comparisons, but I think even if you wanted to make one, you would need to wait until they have actually played a few collegiate games before doing so.

I see Bagley, myself. With a little Tatum, and a splash of JJ.

Pie bet: 35pts per game freshman year

[flyingdutchdevil]

I see Bagley, myself. With a little Tatum, and a splash of JJ.

Pie bet: 35pts per game freshman year

Handle of Kyrie to match? And defensive chops of Battier? With the personality of Nolan and leadership of Cook?

Couldn’t agree more.

[Rich]

A cross between Redick on O and Battier on D- while we are speculating


I see Bagley, myself. With a little Tatum, and a splash of JJ.


Handle of Kyrie to match? And defensive chops of Battier? With the personality of Nolan and leadership of Cook?

And the summer of Nick Horvath.

[BD80]

And the summer of Nick Horvath.

Not even Nick Horvath had a summer like Nick Horvath had.

[dukelifer]

Not even Nick Horvath had a summer like Nick Horvath had.

But Patrick Davidson did

[MChambers]

I see Bagley, myself. With a little Tatum, and a splash of JJ.

Pie bet: 35pts per game freshman year

True freshman year or redshirt freshman year?

[dukelifer]

True freshman year or redshirt freshman year?

Both. He will dominate in practice - build his legend - and then dominate the ACC.

[OZ]

Both. He will dominate in practice - build his legend - and then dominate the ACC.

More important than any other area, he HAS the "NUTS" of Christian Laettner and the "STONES" of Tyus Jones! Beat that!

[CrazyNotCrazie]

More important than any other area, he HAS the "NUTS" of Christian Laettner and the "STONES" of Tyus Jones! Beat that!

And the ability of Marty Clark to never, ever foul

[Duke76]

I definitely don't like that comparison, either . . . Dunleavy was a 6'3" guard when he was 16, but grew really tall late in his high school career. But he still had guard skills, even at 6'9". Joey has neither the size nor the skills of Mike Dunleavy.

you remember Dunleavy skills as a junior in high school? good luck with that...show me the video. My comment centered around the way he moved on the court in these videos as a junior and the way he shoots,,,still think so but just my opinion, time will tell

[jimsumner]

And the ability of Marty Clark to never, ever foul

Um, it was Marty Nessley who never fouled.

Except he did. A lot.

Post-modern irony, I suppose.

Clark and Pocius were grandfathered in. But Nessley was the point of origin.

Or maybe it was Marty Doherty. But he played in the 1950s. Before my time. And it wouldn't have been post-modern in the 1950s. And the Crazies didn't chant in the 1950s. Just smoked cigarettes.

Back to your regular programming.

[kAzE]

you remember Dunleavy skills as a junior in high school? good luck with that...show me the video. My comment centered around the way he moved on the court in these videos as a junior and the way he shoots,,,still think so but just my opinion, time will tell

Here's some footage from the 1999 Oregon state high school basketball Championship: https://youtu.be/shDNqzEKDTA?t=463

It's not the whole game, but Dunleavy goes 4 for 5 from the field in the clip.

Dunleavy's Jesuit team won 65-38 and Dunleavy was the MVP of the tournament, averaging 22 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists.

If Joey Baker is the #3 overall pick in the NBA Draft, then we'll talk.

Any other questions?

[jimsumner]

Here's some footage from the 1999 Oregon state high school basketball Championship: https://youtu.be/shDNqzEKDTA?t=463

It's not the whole game, but Dunleavy goes 4 for 5 from the field in the clip.

Dunleavy's Jesuit team won 65-38 and Dunleavy was the MVP of the tournament, averaging 22 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists.

If Joey Baker is the #3 overall pick in the NBA Draft, then we'll talk.

Any other questions?

Well, technically, that was his senior year.

Got anything from his junior year? :)

I trust many remember his recruitment.

Duke was also recruiting a wing named Casey Jacobsen. Duke hoped to bring in both.

Jacobsen wanted to commit to Duke but only if Duke stopped recruiting Dunleavy.

Duke declined and Jacobsen went to Stanford.

And Jacobsen was pretty good, better than Dunleavy when both were freshmen and probably comparable as sophomores. But Dunleavy surpassed him and pulled away.

A good example of K knowing what he wanted and being proven correct in the long run.

[kAzE]

Well, technically, that was his senior year.

Got anything from his junior year? :)

From GoDuke.com (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=135177):


High School: Played and lettered two years in basketball at Jesuit High School for head coach Gene Potter ... a McDonald?s and Parade All-America as a senior ... also earned honorable mention All-America honors from USA Today ... Gatorade State Player of the Year and Oregonian State Player of the Year as a senior ... was a two-time all-league and all-state choice ... two-time Metro League Player of the Year ... led his senior year team to state title with averages of 23.0 points and 8.0 rebounds a game ... most valuable player in the state tournament as a senior, scoring 22 points and grabbing 12 rebounds ... his junior year squad went 21-7 and reached the state quarterfinals as he averaged 20.0 points and 9.0 rebounds ... tallied a career-high 35 points against Redmond High School ... collected 13 points and five steals in the McDonald?s All-America game ... also participated in the Hoops Summit and Magic Johnson Roundball Classic.

Averaged 20.0 and 9.0 as a Junior.

Joey Baker averaged 18.2 and 3.9 as a Junior (http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/joseph-joey-baker/SQCB0Y09EeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm)

Why can't we just see what this kid can do instead of unfairly compare him to Duke greats?

[Indoor66]

From GoDuke.com (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=135177):



Averaged 20.0 and 9.0 as a Junior.

Joey Baker averaged 18.2 and 3.9 as a Junior (http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/joseph-joey-baker/SQCB0Y09EeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm)

Why can't we just see what this kid can do instead of unfairly compare him to Duke greats?

You have got to be kidding! This is DBR and everyone has to be the next someone else. It must be a rule. Maybe 9Z?

[jimsumner]

From GoDuke.com (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=135177):



Averaged 20.0 and 9.0 as a Junior.

Joey Baker averaged 18.2 and 3.9 as a Junior (http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/joseph-joey-baker/SQCB0Y09EeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm)

Why can't we just see what this kid can do instead of unfairly compare him to Duke greats?

You mean he's not going to be a cross between Christian Laettner and Grant Hill?

Darnit.

[fraggler]

Not sure why people are hellbent on shooting down stylistic comps, especially when trying to figure out how Joey might fit into next year's team. I don't think anyone said Joey was going to be as good as any of past Duke greats, he just stylistically reminds people of x, y, z.

[jimsumner]

Not sure why people are hellbent on shooting down stylistic comps, especially when trying to figure out how Joey might fit into next year's team. I don't think anyone said Joey was going to be as good as any of past Duke greats, he just stylistically reminds people of x, y, z.

Ah, but there's the rub.

Intellectually, we all understand the difference between A. "fraggler reminds me of J.J. Redick" and B. 'fraggler is going to be as good as J.J. Redick."

But A almost always seems to morph into B.

A bigger problem, for me anyway, is our tendency to draw overly-broad conclusions from highly-edited highlight videos.

[kAzE]

Not sure why people are hellbent on shooting down stylistic comps, especially when trying to figure out how Joey might fit into next year's team. I don't think anyone said Joey was going to be as good as any of past Duke greats, he just stylistically reminds people of x, y, z.

Not hell bent on anything . . . the guy asked for a video, I provided one. I make comparisons (though usually NBA comparisons) just as much as anyone. Am I not allowed to call out ones that I don't agree with?

That said, if Joey Baker is as good or better than Mike Dunleavy, that would be pretty awesome. I just don't see it.

[CDu]

Not hell bent on anything . . . the guy asked for a video, I provided one. I make comparisons (though usually NBA comparisons) just as much as anyone. Am I not allowed to call out ones that I don't agree with?

That said, if Joey Baker is as good or better than Mike Dunleavy, that would be pretty awesome. I just don't see it.

To be fair, I don’t think anyone has suggested Baker will be as good as Dunleavy. Just that they think his game reminds them of Dunleavy.

Personally, I think his offensive game reminds me more of Shane Battier’s offensive game. Though again, no expectation that he comes close to as good as Battier, even just on offense.

[Indoor66]

...And Quinn had a pretty good 1st half.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Well, technically, that was his senior year.

Got anything from his junior year? :)

I trust many remember his recruitment.

Duke was also recruiting a wing named Casey Jacobsen. Duke hoped to bring in both.

Jacobsen wanted to commit to Duke but only if Duke stopped recruiting Dunleavy.

Duke declined and Jacobsen went to Stanford.

And Jacobsen was pretty good, better than Dunleavy when both were freshmen and probably comparable as sophomores. But Dunleavy surpassed him and pulled away.

A good example of K knowing what he wanted and being proven correct in the long run.

Sophomore Jacobsen led his Stanford team to victory over Dunleavy’s 2001 Duke National Championship team in the Dec 2000 Pete Newell Challenge.

[kAzE]

To be fair, I don’t think anyone has suggested Baker will be as good as Dunleavy. Just that they think his game reminds them of Dunleavy.

No, I get it. And I'm disagreeing based on that.

Aside from the fact that they are both lanky white kids who can shoot, they're games are nothing remotely similar. Dunleavy was much more athletic and bigger/longer, and despite that, he was a better ball handler and passer, too. He was a triple double threat every night. Joey right now just looks like a spot up shooter (albeit, a pretty good one, maybe even a slightly better shooter than Mike). I'm saying it was a lazy comparison.

[Rich]

Intellectually, we all understand the difference between A. "fraggler reminds me of J.J. Redick" and B. 'fraggler is going to be as good as J.J. Redick."

Jim, I have to respectfully disagree. I don't see how any of them could remind you of J.J. Redick.

8345

[Kedsy]

Dunleavy was much more athletic and bigger/longer, and despite that, he was a better ball handler and passer, too.

In high school, Mike Dunleavy wasn't bigger or longer at all. IIRC, at the end of his junior year of high school Dunleavy was around 6'5". Baker is taller than that. And I don't care how skinny Joey Baker is, he can't be significantly smaller than Dunleavy, who was thin as a rail when he arrived at Duke.

[dukelifer]

More important than any other area, he HAS the "NUTS" of Christian Laettner and the "STONES" of Tyus Jones! Beat that!

Patrick Davidson is a afraid to guard him.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

No, I get it. And I'm disagreeing based on that.

Aside from the fact that they are both lanky white kids who can shoot, they're games are nothing remotely similar. Dunleavy was much more athletic and bigger/longer, and despite that, he was a better ball handler and passer, too. He was a triple double threat every night. Joey right now just looks like a spot up shooter (albeit, a pretty good one, maybe even a slightly better shooter than Mike). I'm saying it was a lazy comparison.

Dunleavy has a brother named Baker who played sparingly at Villanova, was an assistant there and is now head coach at Quinipiac. My guess is that Joey Baker's career ends up being somewhere between the two Dunleavy's, hopefully much closer to Mike's.

[Fish80]

The comparison you should be making is Joey Beard. Baker is only one letter off from Bread, with a dose of scramble.

[BD80]

The comparison you should be making is Joey Beard. Baker is only one letter off from Bread, with a dose of scramble.

You're saying Baker will rise like bread?

Leaven levity?

I'm OK if he pops up like Dunleavenly, which would leave the Baker-man at about 7'2"

[Fish80]

Joey Beard played, transferred, became French.

Baker ... Break ... Bread ... Beard

[Duke76]

Not hell bent on anything . . . the guy asked for a video, I provided one. I make comparisons (though usually NBA comparisons) just as much as anyone. Am I not allowed to call out ones that I don't agree with?

That said, if Joey Baker is as good or better than Mike Dunleavy, that would be pretty awesome. I just don't see it.

well let me call you out for misrepresenting what I said, its hard to imagine how anyone reading my 2 posts on the kid could come to the conclusion I said he would be "as good or better than Mike Dunleavy." much less a "clone"

I watched the video and imo, playing against that competition one could make no more conclusion about how Mike would perform in college or the NBA as this kid and his video. Mike makes 2 layouts and a couple of outside shots over kids who are 6 inches or more shorter than he is.

Are you making this statement from your above video based on what you had seen in high school videos or after his college career? "Dunleavy was much more athletic and bigger/longer, and despite that, he was a better ball handler and passer, too. He was a triple double threat every night." I'd be surprised if you're making that statement based on high school videos you say of Mike. Maybe I am wrong on that.

Looking at that video at that age for Mike and looking at Joey's video further confirms my thought; Joey reminds me of Mike the way they move and shoot. Let's hope and I will agree with your last statement, it would be awesome if he could improve materially enough to have a college and pro career like Mike and be as good as him. Mike was one of my favorites at Duke although that list is rather long as I suppose it for most on this board.

[Newton_14]

i don't know if it's the case for Joey, but lots of kids are re-classifying back to their original grade level due to being held back or whatever earlier.

I’m late to the party but you took the words right out of my mouth. I turned 18 in April of my Senior year in High School, with my correct class. Which is why I chuckled every time I heard someone say “And Bagley should be in High School right now!”
Really? Cause Bagley turned 19 in March. He turned 18 a month sooner than I did as a High School Senior.
All of these kids that reclassify intentionally repeated a grade somewhere along the way, most often the 9th grade for the purpose of being more mature mentally and physically when they enter college athletics...

[sagegrouse]

I’m late to the party but you took the words right out of my mouth. I turned 18 in April of my Senior year in High School, with my correct class. Which is why I chuckled every time I heard someone say “And Bagley should be in High School right now!”
Really? Cause Bagley turned 19 in March. He turned 18 a month sooner than I did as a High School Senior.
All of these kids that reclassify intentionally repeated a grade somewhere along the way, most often the 9th grade for the purpose of being more mature mentally and physically when they enter college athletics...

It used to be 8th grade because that didn't count against HS eligibility. Laettner, IIRC.

[CDu]

Here are some more highlights for Baker. These appear to be from 2017.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wF-WfFQJl1k

[fraggler]

Here are some more highlights for Baker. These appear to be from 2017.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wF-WfFQJl1k

Man, that is a pretty jumper. Hope it translates against ACC level defenders. Looks like a well rounded 3/4 once he puts on a little more weight/strength.

[DukieInKansas]

I can't believe that in all of the comparisons that have been made, there hasn't been a single one using cinder blocks. DBR - you are slipping.

;):D

[53n206]

Joey seems to have good court awareness, plays decent defense, and shoots well with either hand. Loved what Redick brought to us, and I can see some of that in Joey.

[MChambers]

Joey seems to have good court awareness, plays decent defense, and shoots well with either hand. Loved what Redick brought to us, and I can see some of that in Joey.

So we can expect a player with the best attributes of Redick and Dunleavy? Cool! ;)

[kAzE]

So we can expect a player with the best attributes of Redick and Dunleavy? Cool! ;)

I guess trying to temper expectations is a fool's errand in these threads.

He's clearly going to be the greatest Duke player of all time.

/s

[Fish80]

I guess trying to temper expectations is a fool's errand in these threads.

He's clearly going to be the greatest Duke player of all time.

/s

Measured how? Winningest player? Highest scoring player? National defensive player of the year 3 times? All of the above?

[kAzE]

Measured how? Winningest player? Highest scoring player? National defensive player of the year 3 times? All of the above?

"/s" is my way of denoting sarcasm . . . . in case that wasn't already obvious.

[DukieInBrasil]

"/s" is my way of denoting sarcasm . . . . in case that wasn't already obvious.
(i think there may have been a bit of sarcasm in the response you were responding to...)

[kAzE]

(i think there may have been a bit of sarcasm in the response you were responding to...)

It's hard to tell sometimes, right? That's why I adopted the use of "/s"

[Indoor66]

It's hard to tell sometimes, right? That's why I adopted the use of "/s"

Nah. Reading the nuances of the post, I know that you were serious. I also do tea leaves.😋😎

[Duke76]

I guess trying to temper expectations is a fool's errand in these threads.

He's clearly going to be the greatest Duke player of all time.

/s

guess you can't bring yourself to admit you misrepresented what I said?

[kAzE]

guess you can't bring yourself to admit you misrepresented what I said?

I have nothing to admit to. I still disagree that any part of Baker's game resembles Mike Dunleavy's game. In my opinion, it was a lazy comparison based on their similar ethnicity and body type. "They have similar movements" is a ridiculous supporting argument to base a comparison upon. All players make SOME similar moves. I could compare myself to JJ Redick because I have a similar looking jump shot form, but it's still a terrible and irrelevant comparison.

It's fine if you disagree. I'm going to leave it at that.

[Duke76]

I have nothing to admit to. I still disagree that any part of Baker's game resembles Mike Dunleavy's game. In my opinion, it was a lazy comparison based on their similar ethnicity and body type. "They have similar movements" is a ridiculous supporting argument to base a comparison upon. All players make SOME similar moves. I could compare myself to JJ Redick because I have a similar looking jump shot form, but it's still a terrible and irrelevant comparison.

It's fine if you disagree. I'm going to leave it at that.

the question i was originally responding to was, "who does he remind you of?" Now why do you jump to the conclusion that my response was a lazy comparison because he is white? Do you know what I was thinking when I made the comment? Let me ask, where was Dunleavy ranked as a junior in his class? 15? less than 15 or more?

Your opinion is no better than mine no matter how you want to pontificate. Glad you think it's fine if I disagree, but I didn't need your validation to know that. I'll leave it at that.

[flyingdutchdevil]

the question i was originally responding to was, "who does he remind you of?" Now why do you jump to the conclusion that my response was a lazy comparison because he is white? Do you know what I was thinking when I made the comment? Let me ask, where was Dunleavy ranked as a junior in his class? 15? less than 15 or more?

Your opinion is no better than mine no matter how you want to pontificate. Glad you think it's fine if I disagree, but I didn't need your validation to know that. I'll leave it at that.

#26 according to RSCI.

[BLPOG]

You have got to be kidding! This is DBR and everyone has to be the next someone else. It must be a rule. Maybe 9Z?

It's 6f.


f) [Recruit] reminds me of [previous Duke player, usu. of same race and somatype, but not necessarily game].

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Measured how? Winningest player? Highest scoring player? National defensive player of the year 3 times? All of the above?

Winningest player ever, AND one and done.

[devilish]

He's in the pool for Team USA u18.

https://www.usab.com/mens/u18/roster.aspx

As are Zion and UNC bound White.

[RPS]

Winningest player ever, AND one and done.Even though we'll go at least nine deep.

[jimsumner]

Next year's Duke team will be the first team in history to win more games than it plays.

45 wins, minus five losses.

[devildeac]

Next year's Duke team will be the first team in history to win more games than it plays.

45 wins, minus five losses.

Amazing. Less than two months into the off-season and we even have Jim Sumner participating in the zaniness.

;) :rolleyes:

[Matches]

Amazing. Less than two months into the off-season and we even have Jim Sumner participating in the zaniness.

;) :rolleyes:

jimsumner is the next Adam Rowe. I see a bit of Nate James in him too.

[Indoor66]

jimsumner is the next Adam Rowe. I see a bit of Nate James in him too.

Jim IS what Adam strives to be.

[TruBlu]

Jim IS what Adam strives to be.

You don’t tug on Superman’s cape, you don’t spit in the wind, you don’t take the mask off the old Lone Ranger, and you don’t mess around with Jim.

[mr. synellinden]

You don’t tug on Superman’s cape, you don’t spit in the wind, you don’t take the mask off the old Lone Ranger, and you don’t mess around with Jim.

And you Don't Mess with Thomas (Hill that is).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

And you Don't Mess with Thomas (Hill that is).

Love T HILL! And hey, he's not given the credit, but he is the father of the "surrender cobra" - although his iconic reaction was in victory - and a couple decades before "surrender cobra" became a 'thing.'