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UrinalCake
04-26-2018, 07:37 PM
Time to start an official thread for this year's draft. A lot of conversation will focus on our guys, but there's plenty to discuss about all of the players. To kick things off, here are the current projections from all the mock drafts I could find (I don't have insider access to ESPN/Givony's mock but it's behind a paywall so I wouldn't repost it anyways.


Bagley Carter Trent Duval Allen
NBADraft.net 2 7 20 24 28
SI 4 7 43 48 33
CBS 2 9 28 2nd rd 2nd rd
Sporting News 4 11 2nd rd 2nd rd 2nd rd
Hoops Hype 2 9 16 23 26
The Ringer 5 10 2nd rd 2nd rd 29
Basketball Insiders 4 6 34 33 31


Important dates:
May 15 Draft Lottery
May 16-20 Combine
June 11 deadline to withdraw
June 21 Draft

JasonEvans
04-26-2018, 07:54 PM
Someone with strong feelings on it needs to wager a pie on who goes first between Grayson and Duval... but I don't feel strongly enough about it either way to be the guy to do that.

-Jason "actually, if you were really bold, you could include Trent in the mix and make it a 3-way pie bet..." Evans

proelitedota
04-26-2018, 08:13 PM
Duval is going first round. He compares favorably to Westbrook and John Wall at the same point in their careers.

I can't see how a league that drafts on potential pass up on Duval in the first round.

WillJ
04-26-2018, 09:05 PM
Duval ....He compares favorably to Westbrook and John Wall at the same point in their careers.


If this were true, I think we would have won a title this year. We didn't.

CDu
04-26-2018, 09:08 PM
Duval is going first round. He compares favorably to Westbrook and John Wall at the same point in their careers.

I can't see how a league that drafts on potential pass up on Duval in the first round.

Westbrook sure. But no way is Duval as far along as Wall was at the same point in their careers. Wall averaged 16 and 6 on better shooting in his one year of college. There is a reason he went #1 in his draft.

Natty_B
04-27-2018, 08:08 AM
The Athletic latest mock had Duval at 57 thatís dangerously close to not drafted territory.

Troublemaker
04-27-2018, 08:51 AM
Someone with strong feelings on it needs to wager a pie on who goes first between Grayson and Duval... but I don't feel strongly enough about it either way to be the guy to do that.

-Jason "actually, if you were really bold, you could include Trent in the mix and make it a 3-way pie bet..." Evans

Well, since you requested it, I would definitely put a pie on Grayson getting drafted before Trevon. (I'm less sure about Grayson vs Gary).

kAzE
04-27-2018, 09:24 AM
I actually kind of hope the Celtics take Grayson with the #27 pick.

phaedrus
04-27-2018, 09:57 AM
I actually kind of hope the Celtics take Grayson with the #27 pick.

I want Grayson to be drafted by the favorite team of whoever I know that dislikes Grayson the most.

I'm having a hard time narrowing it down, though.

kAzE
04-27-2018, 10:08 AM
I want Grayson to be drafted by the favorite team of whoever I know that dislikes Grayson the most.

I'm having a hard time narrowing it down, though.

I just want him on the Celtics, because I'm a Celtics fan, and I believe in him. He's underrated IMO.

I thought he played a little bit out of his comfort zone this past year on a somewhat weird college team with too many big men and not enough ball handlers, but in Brad Stevens' system, with the play makers they already have, Grayson could be really, really good. Getting him at #27 could be good value if I'm right. But I wouldn't be surprised if they drafted a big man instead. Depends on what they do with Aron Baynes and Daniel Theis this off season.

In my perfect world, they re-sign both of those guys and draft Grayson :)

Ian
04-27-2018, 01:26 PM
Well, since you requested it, I would definitely put a pie on Grayson getting drafted before Trevon. (I'm less sure about Grayson vs Gary).

I don't do pie bets since I try to stay away from sweets but if I did I'd join you. Grayson can help somebody right away, Duval is at least 2 years away from being able to help anyone, so I can't see any team spending a 1st round pick on him.

superdave
04-27-2018, 07:26 PM
Anyone want to wager that Carter goes ahead of Bagley?

I wonder what the odds of that are once the ping pong balls drop and we know draft order.

I keep reading about how Bagley is a tweener who will be hard to plug in at the 5 because he doesnt protect the rim. But Carter does protect the rim and shot well from 3. It seems unlikely, but would not be a huge shock if they went 5 and 6 with Wendell going first.

As far as Treyvon, it's goign to be all about the workout buzz for him. If he measures well and works out hard, he should be a first rounder. He's an elite athlete.

dukelifer
04-27-2018, 07:56 PM
Duval is going first round. He compares favorably to Westbrook and John Wall at the same point in their careers.

I can't see how a league that drafts on potential pass up on Duval in the first round.

It is all about shooting now. Westbrook was a better three point shooter and FT shooter in his full year of starting at UCLA. If Duval can improve his shooting- he will have a career. His workouts will have a big impact on where he is drafted. I am not sure I saw Duval hit many if any pull up jumpers. That has to be part of his repertoire.

JasonEvans
04-28-2018, 11:17 AM
Anyone want to wager that Carter goes ahead of Bagley?

I wonder what the odds of that are once the ping pong balls drop and we know draft order.

I keep reading about how Bagley is a tweener who will be hard to plug in at the 5 because he doesnt protect the rim. But Carter does protect the rim and shot well from 3. It seems unlikely, but would not be a huge shock if they went 5 and 6 with Wendell going first.

As far as Treyvon, it's goign to be all about the workout buzz for him. If he measures well and works out hard, he should be a first rounder. He's an elite athlete.

I'll take Bagley is you want to take Carter. I don't know why there would be concerns about Bagley at the 5 because he is a prototypical NBA 4.

-Jason "odds that Bagley drops out of the top 5 in this draft are darn close to 0%, IMO" Evans

brlftz
04-28-2018, 11:46 AM
I donít think Iíd put money on the draft bet, but I wouldnít be shocked if Carter is a better pro. Heís a better shooter and rim protector and fits within nba schemes better. Bagley reminds me of Jah in that he can be a ball stopper who mostly brings scoring in ways the nba doesnít want to score anymore. I can imagine a scenario where nba guys figure out that he has no right hand and can take away the things he does best.

Iím not saying thatís all likely, especially since Marvin showed a decent outside shot as well, but itís possible and depends on how hard Marvin works on his game.

mgtr
04-28-2018, 04:20 PM
So it appears that Grayson might well go near the end of the first round. Any WAG on where he might have gone at the end of his sophomore year? Definitely earlier in my book, but then the question would be how well he would stick on a team.

Troublemaker
04-28-2018, 04:32 PM
So it appears that Grayson might well go near the end of the first round. Any WAG on where he might have gone at the end of his sophomore year? Definitely earlier in my book, but then the question would be how well he would stick on a team.

Likely higher because the 2016 draft was a weak one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NBA_draft

My WAG would be Grayson would've gone somewhere in the Denzel Valentine (pick #14) to Caris Levert (pick #20) range.

UrinalCake
04-29-2018, 09:43 AM
Twitter tells me that NBA Combine invitations were sent out on Friday. I havenít seen an official list posted anywhere, but various parties are tweeting out players that have received invites.

Udoka Azubuike (Kansas)
Devonteí Graham (Kansas)
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (Kansas)
Malik Newman (Kansas)
Billy Preston (Kansas)
Lagerald Vick (Kansas/alternate)
Tyus Battle (Syracuse)
Rawle Alkins (Arizona)
Brian Bowen (Louisville commit)
Jaylen Barford (Arkansas)
Kenrich Williams (TCU)
Melvin Frazier (Tulane)
Mitchell Robinson (Western Kentucky commit)
Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech)

If itís like last year, weíll get a continued slow trickle of news that players have been invited, and then a full complete list in a few days. I have always felt that if a player isnít invited to the combine, he should go back to school.

JasonEvans
04-29-2018, 04:10 PM
Twitter tells me that NBA Combine invitations were sent out on Friday. I havenít seen an official list posted anywhere, but various parties are tweeting out players that have received invites.

Udoka Azubuike (Kansas)
Devonteí Graham (Kansas)
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (Kansas)
Malik Newman (Kansas)
Billy Preston (Kansas)
Lagerald Vick (Kansas/alternate)
Tyus Battle (Syracuse)
Rawle Alkins (Arizona)
Brian Bowen (Louisville commit)
Jaylen Barford (Arkansas)
Kenrich Williams (TCU)
Melvin Frazier (Tulane)
Mitchell Robinson (Western Kentucky commit)
Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech)

If itís like last year, weíll get a continued slow trickle of news that players have been invited, and then a full complete list in a few days. I have always felt that if a player isnít invited to the combine, he should go back to school.

To be clear, I am sure that a bunch of other guys got invited -- Bagley, Ayton, Carter, K ox, Porter, and so on -- but they refused the invite because guys who are automatic first rounders do not play at the combine. It is for guys who are likely 2nd rounders who want to play their way into the end of the first. For example, Frank Jackson was arguably the best player at the combine a year ago and it made him the 1st pick of the 2nd round.

-Jason "the locked first rounders may show up to get officially measured and do some interviews, but won't work out, that's for sure" Evans

UrinalCake
04-30-2018, 09:08 AM
guys who are automatic first rounders do not play at the combine.

I think itís more like guys who are guaranteed top-5 picks do not play at the combine. There are still lottery pick-level guys who attend. It really depends if they think they can show something above what they demonstrated during the season, or whether they would risk having a couple bad days and then dropping as a result. I think itís possible that Wendell would choose to attend. Heís generally projected as the fourth or fifth big among Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, Jackson and Porter, and the knock on him is that he is not athletic enough to defend on the perimeter. Maybe a solid combine performance would change that.

But yeah, I always felt like combine performances need to come with a big asterisk. Whenever I read that so and so player had the highest vertical leap in the history of the combine, I quietly scream in my head that heís not better than all of the top players.

JasonEvans
04-30-2018, 09:31 AM
I think itís more like guys who are guaranteed top-5 picks do not play at the combine. There are still lottery pick-level guys who attend.

Again, attending (getting measured or maybe doing some agility/athleticism drills) is very different from playing in the games. You absolutely will not see likely lottery picks playing in the combine scrimmages. Your notion of Carter playing and boosting his stock is not gonna happen. No way.

Here are the rosters from last year's scrimmages. There isn't a single likely first rounder in the bunch:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_jmMcgU0AEs0yC.jpg

UrinalCake
04-30-2018, 09:39 AM
Gotcha - when I hear someone say ďaccepted an invitation to the combineĒ I think about the performance testing and the measurements. I guess I donít even consider the scrimmages to be part of it, even though maybe I should. When the NBA lists 70-ish players that will be attending the combine, I donít think that means 70 players will participate in the scrimmages.

dukelifer
04-30-2018, 12:16 PM
Again, attending (getting measured or maybe doing some agility/athleticism drills) is very different from playing in the games. You absolutely will not see likely lottery picks playing in the combine scrimmages. Your notion of Carter playing and boosting his stock is not gonna happen. No way.

Here are the rosters from last year's scrimmages. There isn't a single likely first rounder in the bunch:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_jmMcgU0AEs0yC.jpg

If they were selecting today- I suspect Kuzma would be a VERY high first round pick.

JasonEvans
04-30-2018, 12:34 PM
If they were selecting today- I suspect Kuzma would be a VERY high first round pick.

Yup, same with Dillon Brooks, not as high as Kuzma, but he would be a lottery pick.

Should we do a mock redraft of the 2017 draft? I think a good case can be made for Tatum to go #1 over Donovan Mitchell, but you can't miss with either pick. After that, it gets a lot more murky. It is not crazy to think Kuzma goes third. And where would Fultz go? We still know so little about his game. Don't forget that Kuzma and Mitchell are at least 2 or 3 years older than many of these other high draft picks. Tatum doing what he did before he even turned 20 is truly amazing.

-Jason "hmmmm, I'm sensing a sorta fun off-season activity here" Evans

kAzE
04-30-2018, 01:46 PM
Yup, same with Dillon Brooks, not as high as Kuzma, but he would be a lottery pick.

Should we do a mock redraft of the 2017 draft? I think a good case can be made for Tatum to go #1 over Donovan Mitchell, but you can't miss with either pick. After that, it gets a lot more murky. It is not crazy to think Kuzma goes third. And where would Fultz go? We still know so little about his game. Don't forget that Kuzma and Mitchell are at least 2 or 3 years older than many of these other high draft picks. Tatum doing what he did before he even turned 20 is truly amazing.

-Jason "hmmmm, I'm sensing a sorta fun off-season activity here" Evans

That's a tough choice . . . I would like to see what Jayson looks like next year before I make that decision. Mitchell was obviously better this season, but he was also asked to do more and he's a year older.

If I had a gun to my head, I'd probably pick Mitchell right now. That guy is doing things rookies haven't done in over 30 years. He's the #1 option on a good playoff team at age 21. He can get a bucket by himself almost at will with all sorts of spins and fakes and has the feel of a 30 year old veteran. It's absolutely insane. As wonderful a player as Jayson is, I'm not sure he could be that good even next year.

The case for Jayson is that he's a better fit with a ball dominant star than Mitchell since he's a better shooter. But on the other hand, Mitchell is a better defender, is more athletic, and has the same wingspan as Jayson (7'0"), despite being 5 inches shorter . . .

Mitchell is already a 100% proven franchise player. The jury is still out for Tatum. He could make a huge leap at some point, but right now, you gotta go with Mitchell.

BD80
04-30-2018, 02:48 PM
Yup, same with Dillon Brooks, not as high as Kuzma, but he would be a lottery pick.

Should we do a mock redraft of the 2017 draft? I think a good case can be made for Tatum to go #1 over Donovan Mitchell, but you can't miss with either pick. After that, it gets a lot more murky. It is not crazy to think Kuzma goes third. And where would Fultz go? We still know so little about his game. Don't forget that Kuzma and Mitchell are at least 2 or 3 years older than many of these other high draft picks. Tatum doing what he did before he even turned 20 is truly amazing.

-Jason "hmmmm, I'm sensing a sorta fun off-season activity here" Evans

Semi STARTED for the Celtics in the playoffs. I'd say he outperformed many 1st round picks ...

kAzE
04-30-2018, 02:57 PM
Semi STARTED for the Celtics in the playoffs. I'd say he outperformed many 1st round picks ...

Only Brad Stevens has the stones to start Semi Ojeleye as a rookie . . . guarding a top 5 player, no less.

But, that's not great logic. He just happened to have the best combination of size and quickness on the Celtics decimated roster of being able to somewhat contain Giannis (before the return of Marcus Smart). Semi actually was in the lineup over Jayson Tatum in game 5 during crunch time too, but nobody is drafting Semi over Jayson in a re-draft.

BD80
04-30-2018, 03:06 PM
Only Brad Stevens has the stones to start Semi Ojeleye as a rookie . . . guarding a top 5 player, no less.

But, that's not great logic. He just happened to have the best combination of size and quickness on the Celtics decimated roster of being able to somewhat contain Giannis (before the return of Marcus Smart). Semi actually was in the lineup over Jayson Tatum in game 5 during crunch time too, but nobody is drafting Semi over Jayson in a re-draft.

I believe I am entitled to my narrative ...

After all, I will be acting as Mr. Ojeleye's agent during the re-drafting process ..

I am ... ahem ... Semi-qualified ....

kAzE
04-30-2018, 03:09 PM
I believe I am entitled to my narrative ...

After all, I will be acting as Mr. Ojeleye's agent during the re-drafting process ..

I am ... ahem ... Semi-qualified ...

I was going to say he was the only guy who could "semi-contain" Giannis, but I caught myself. I see you don't share the same inhibitions ;)

BD80
04-30-2018, 03:26 PM
I was going to say he was the only guy who could "semi-contain" Giannis, but I caught myself. I see you don't share the same inhibitions ;)

I have never been accused of being overly delicate, my subtlety has been compared to a runaway Semi

JasonEvans
04-30-2018, 05:08 PM
That's a tough choice . . . I would like to see what Jayson looks like next year before I make that decision. Mitchell was obviously better this season, but he was also asked to do more and he's a year older.

Yeah, I would also probably take Mitchell. I was just saying a case could be made for Tatum.

And one of the chief arguments in that case is age. Mitchell's birthday is September 7, 1996, Tatum's is March 3, 1998... those 19 months are a fairly big deal at this age.

-Jason "so, who goes #3? Fultz" Evans

lotusland
04-30-2018, 08:48 PM
Yeah, I would also probably take Mitchell. I was just saying a case could be made for Tatum.

And one of the chief arguments in that case is age. Mitchell's birthday is September 7, 1996, Tatum's is March 3, 1998... those 19 months are a fairly big deal at this age.

-Jason "so, who goes #3? Fultz" Evans

So I wonder how often 2 more likely years of prime play actually ends up benefiting the team that drafts a player? Obviously the teams gets the benefit of youth if the player stays through their prime years. Also youth is often a factor in a playerís trade value but seems like a lot of players get moved to create cap space. If a player leaves through free agency before then end of their prime the team that drafted him really doesn't benefit from youth do they?

UrinalCake
04-30-2018, 10:43 PM
It's not so much about how many years they have left, I think the issue is that if player X is playing at a certain level, and player Y is also playing at that same level but is a year younger, then player Y is considered way more valuable in terms of long-term NBA potential. If you consider growth to be an upward trajectory then player Y is ahead of player X's trajectory and is also presumed to have further to go.

But the timing of the contracts does matter, as you said. For a guy who is drafted as a 19 year old, he'll still be a couple years away from his prime when his rookie contract expires. And the team that drafted him has the best chance at re-signing him based on how much they can offer him. But if you start out at 22 then you're hitting your prime sooner and are looking for a max deal by your second contract. I'm probably not making much sense here, JJ Redick explained it much better in one of his podcasts, but the bottom line was that it was better to draft younger players.

sagegrouse
05-01-2018, 08:59 AM
But the timing of the contracts does matter, as you said. For a guy who is drafted as a 19 year old, he'll still be a couple years away from his prime when his rookie contract expires. And the team that drafted him has the best chance at re-signing him based on how much they can offer him. But if you start out at 22 then you're hitting your prime sooner and are looking for a max deal by your second contract. I'm probably not making much sense here, JJ Redick explained it much better in one of his podcasts, but the bottom line was that it was better to draft younger players.

Yeah, apparently so. One drafts younger so one can re-sign more cheaply. At the same, a team pays for a kid to sit on the bench and do nothing for two years. And, he may not develop into a really good player. And, the money is gone on a wasted 3-4 year contract.

I am probably not cut out to be an NBA GM.

Indoor66
05-01-2018, 09:56 AM
Yeah, apparently so. One drafts younger so one can re-sign more cheaply. At the same, a team pays for a kid to sit on the bench and do nothing for two years. And, he may not develop into a really good player. And, the money is gone on a wasted 3-4 year contract.

I am probably not cut out to be an NBA GM.

IMO, some of this thinking tends to end up outsmarting ones self. Mayby Penny Wise and Pound Foolish comes into play here?

kako
05-01-2018, 05:04 PM
I think it's hard to comment about the Bagley/Carter order in the draft until the lottery is set. Then watch the trades. But both go lottery.

I do think Duval will go before Allen. Not that I think Allen is the worse player. Just looking at it from a GM's perspective on potential. I think if Duval lights it up in the pre-draft camps, put him in pen in the 1st round. Allen is more of a known commodity - perhaps a late first round pick if a team views him highly (Celtics?), but I don't think it's automatic. More like a 2nd round pick to me (earlier than later).

I have no real feeling where Trent will go. First round, second round or even undrafted? He will have to show well at the camps to solidify his stock.

9F

JNort
05-01-2018, 08:33 PM
Yeah, I would also probably take Mitchell. I was just saying a case could be made for Tatum.

And one of the chief arguments in that case is age. Mitchell's birthday is September 7, 1996, Tatum's is March 3, 1998... those 19 months are a fairly big deal at this age.

-Jason "so, who goes #3? Fultz" Evans

I think it depends on the team who could pick number 1. Or is this a question like if we had to build around 1 of those two who would we wanna start with?

dukelifer
05-04-2018, 08:27 PM
Invites out (https://www.seccountry.com/sec/2018-nba-draft-combine-players). I apologize for the source.

Green Wave Dukie
05-05-2018, 04:32 AM
I have never been accused of being overly delicate, my subtlety has been compared to a runaway Semi

Keep trucking with your subtlety, BD80

CameronBornAndBred
05-07-2018, 02:48 PM
Invites out (https://www.seccountry.com/sec/2018-nba-draft-combine-players). I apologize for the source.
Five guys. :)

Duke's starting five for the bulk of the season (Grayson Allen, Marvin Bagley III, Wendell Carter Jr., Trevon Duval and Gary Trent Jr.) will be among the 69 participants in the May 16-20 workouts.
https://www.wralsportsfan.com/five-blue-devils-among-giant-group-invited-to-nba-draft-combine/17536787/

UrinalCake
05-15-2018, 08:15 AM
Draft lottery is tonight. Who are the teams most likely to pick Bagley and Carter early? I heard some buzz of the Knicks liking Bagley and he would seem to be a good fit next to Porzingis. Any other teams to pay attention to?

budwom
05-15-2018, 08:23 AM
Draft lottery is tonight. Who are the teams most likely to pick Bagley and Carter early? I heard some buzz of the Knicks liking Bagley and he would seem to be a good fit next to Porzingis. Any other teams to pay attention to?

If he goes to the Nix, Bagley will have to attend Dysfunction Camp first, which I believe begins in July.

DavidBenAkiva
05-15-2018, 08:40 AM
Draft lottery is tonight. Who are the teams most likely to pick Bagley and Carter early? I heard some buzz of the Knicks liking Bagley and he would seem to be a good fit next to Porzingis. Any other teams to pay attention to?

There are a couple of teams in the lottery with that would be interesting landing spots for the Duke big men.

Memphis is probably going to be a top 3 pick have a need for PF or a long-term replacement for Marc Gasol at C. Pairing Bagley with Gasol could be a great situation for MBIII.
Dallas is another spot with positional need in the frontcourt and some interesting pieces in the frontcourt with Dennis Smith, Jr. and Harrison Barnes. This might be Dirk Nowitzki's last season, too.
Atlanta might have gotten a long-term power forward in John Collins from Wake Forest last year and could use a Center. Wendell Carter, Jr. is an Atlanta local, so there's a fit there. The backcourt situation with the Hawks is the worst of the 3 listed so far.
The Chicago Bulls could sneak into the top 3 and be in a position to grab Bagley to pair with their promising 7 footer Lauri Markkanen. If they stay in the 6-7 range, where they are now, then Wendell Carter, Jr. might also be a fit as a Center that can also space the floor. They might have the most talent with a young group featuring Markkanen, Kris Dunn from Providence at PG, and the exciting Zach LaVine at SG. Scoring and spacing the floor shouldn't be an issue.
A super interesting situation might occur if the Cleveland Cavaliers sneak into the top 5. It's not clear if LeBron James will stay in "the Land" past this season. Either of Bagley or Carter could be a welcome addition to the frontcourt, with or without LBJ.

UrinalCake
05-15-2018, 09:18 AM
Great breakdown. I really think Bagley needs to be paired with a rim-protecting big in order to mask his deficiencies in that area. I also wonder if any team would consider moving him to the 3. Not the skill set he showed in college but he's so young and he has the raw athleticism that I think he could develop some perimeter game.

Going to the right team is so important for a player's development, as we've seen in how Tatum has flourished while Okafor has all but fallen out of the league. Obviously there are other factors involved too, but hopefully all our guys will land in situations where they can develop, including Trent, Duval and Allen.

sagegrouse
05-15-2018, 09:52 AM
If he goes to the Nix, Bagley will have to attend Dysfunction Camp first, which I believe begins in July.

He missed the first session, which was on April Fool's Day.

kAzE
05-15-2018, 10:05 AM
Great breakdown. I really think Bagley needs to be paired with a rim-protecting big in order to mask his deficiencies in that area. I also wonder if any team would consider moving him to the 3. Not the skill set he showed in college but he's so young and he has the raw athleticism that I think he could develop some perimeter game.

I don't see that happening. He's more likely to develop his post defense rather than a perimeter game that will actually work out in the league. The guy is 6'11" and his best skills are post scoring and rebounding. Why would you want to diminish those strengths and take him farther away from the paint? If he's the 3, then you also have 2 other big men on the floor further crowding the paint, which would make it even more difficult for him to post up. How many teams successfully play three 6'10 guys? Probably only the 76ers, but only because they just happen to have a 6'10" point guard.

IMO, he will never be a 3. There's only one Kevin Durant in the world, and even he is playing the 4 most of the time now. The league continues to trend towards smaller, more skilled lineups. Guys like Anthony Davis are now shifting over to play center. That could be in Bagley's future too, if he ever develops into a rim protector.

Bagley will be an awkward fit on many teams, at least until he develops a reliable jump shot and a functional right hand. If he does that, and works on his defense, he can be an All-Star power forward for a decade. His motor is right up there with Anthony Davis, and better than just about any other big man in the NBA.

sagegrouse
05-15-2018, 10:18 AM
I don't see that happening. He's more likely to develop his post defense rather than a perimeter game that will actually work out in the league. The guy is 6'11" and his best skills are post scoring and rebounding. Why would you want to diminish those strengths and take him farther away from the paint? If he's the 3, then you also have 2 other big men on the floor further crowding the paint, which would make it even more difficult for him to post up. How many teams successfully play three 6'10 guys? Probably only the 76ers, but only because they just happen to have a 6'10" point guard.

IMO, he will never be a 3. There's only one Kevin Durant in the world, and even he is playing the 4 most of the time now. The league continues to trend smaller. Guys like Anthony Davis are now shifting over to play center. That could be in Bagley's future too, if he ever develops into a rim protector.

Bagley will be an awkward fit on many teams, at least until he develops a reliable jump shot and a functional right hand. If he does that, and works on his defense, he can be an All-Star power forward for a decade. His motor is right up there with Anthony Davis, and better than just about any other big man in the NBA.

With his incredible hops, I expect Bagley to be amazing on the offensive and defensive glass, which will result in some easy baskets. I don't see much of a case for moving such a jumping jack to the outside.

fraggler
05-15-2018, 10:34 AM
I don't see that happening. He's more likely to develop his post defense rather than a perimeter game that will actually work out in the league. The guy is 6'11" and his best skills are post scoring and rebounding. Why would you want to diminish those strengths and take him farther away from the paint? If he's the 3, then you also have 2 other big men on the floor further crowding the paint, which would make it even more difficult for him to post up. How many teams successfully play three 6'10 guys? Probably only the 76ers, but only because they just happen to have a 6'10" point guard.

IMO, he will never be a 3. There's only one Kevin Durant in the world, and even he is playing the 4 most of the time now. The league continues to trend towards smaller, more skilled lineups. Guys like Anthony Davis are now shifting over to play center. That could be in Bagley's future too, if he ever develops into a rim protector.

Bagley will be an awkward fit on many teams, at least until he develops a reliable jump shot and a functional right hand. If he does that, and works on his defense, he can be an All-Star power forward for a decade. His motor is right up there with Anthony Davis, and better than just about any other big man in the NBA.

I agree. And as bouncy as he is, I don't know if he quite has the lateral foot speed to reliably guard the perimeter. I do think he has potential to be a league average 3pt shooter as nothing looked broken with his jumper, so stretchy 4 seems to be his natural fit.

JasonEvans
05-15-2018, 11:08 AM
Atlanta might have gotten a long-term power forward in John Collins from Wake Forest last year and could use a Center. Wendell Carter, Jr. is an Atlanta local, so there's a fit there. The backcourt situation with the Hawks is the worst of the 3 listed so far.

Just a quick note on my hometown club... though Collins played mostly (60% of the time) at PF, I don't think that will dissuade the Hawks at all from picking Bagley or Jackson, both of whom also project at PFs in the NBA (Jackson might be a SF). Collins can play center (he played it 40% of the time this season) and can protect the rim. Collins averaged better than 1 block per game this season despite only playing 24 minute per game and his block percentage led the team at 3.8% (not great, but not bad).

-Jason "the Hawks will take the best available player, regardless of position... I hope they are in a position to get Bagley!" Evans

kAzE
05-15-2018, 11:33 AM
Just a quick note on my hometown club... though Collins played mostly (60% of the time) at PF, I don't think that will dissuade the Hawks at all from picking Bagley or Jackson, both of whom also project at PFs in the NBA (Jackson might be a SF). Collins can play center (he played it 40% of the time this season) and can protect the rim. Collins averaged better than 1 block per game this season despite only playing 24 minute per game and his block percentage led the team at 3.8% (not great, but not bad).

-Jason "the Hawks will take the best available player, regardless of position... I hope they are in a position to get Bagley!" Evans

No love for Doncic? Pretty sure Kent Bazemore and Dennis Schroeder would be bench players at best on virtually any playoff team from this year. The Hawks could use some help on the perimeter (especially hurting for some more play makers).

I would think hard about Doncic, even with the #1 overall pick, if I were the Hawks.

JasonEvans
05-15-2018, 12:15 PM
No love for Doncic? Pretty sure Kent Bazemore and Dennis Schroeder would be bench players at best on virtually any playoff team from this year. The Hawks could use some help on the perimeter (especially hurting for some more play makers).

I would think hard about Doncic, even with the #1 overall pick, if I were the Hawks.

Oh, I would love love love to get Doncic, but I think he likely comes off the board at #2 and I suspect the ping pong balls won't get the Hawks to the #2 pick. I think there is a real possibility Bagley lasts until #4 and could get to the Hawks in that spot.

JNort
05-15-2018, 12:37 PM
Oh, I would love love love to get Doncic, but I think he likely comes off the board at #2 and I suspect the ping pong balls won't get the Hawks to the #2 pick. I think there is a real possibility Bagley lasts until #4 and could get to the Hawks in that spot.
Doncic at 2 would be a steal. I'm not a fan of this draft but he is one of the brighter spots in it.

DangerDevil
05-15-2018, 01:29 PM
Doncic at 2 would be a steal. I'm not a fan of this draft but he is one of the brighter spots in it.

Really?

Isnít this the top of this draft considered/projected to be one of the strongest of recent history.

I think that the fact that Bagley or Bamba will most likely be around for the 4th and 5th picks or Michael Porter Jr (even with his back problems) will be around for the 6th or 7th pick is incredibly strong. What about taking Miles Bridges or Robert Williams with the 12th pick. Heck even Kevin Knox will likely still be available when the lottery is done.

That sounds pretty good to me, I just hope that Danny Ainge has one more leprechaun left for tonight and somehow the Celticís end up with the 3rd pick and take Bagley!

kAzE
05-15-2018, 02:14 PM
Really?

Isn’t this the top of this draft considered/projected to be one of the strongest of recent history.

I think that the fact that Bagley or Bamba will most likely be around for the 4th and 5th picks or Michael Porter Jr (even with his back problems) will be around for the 6th or 7th pick is incredibly strong. What about taking Miles Bridges or Robert Williams with the 12th pick. Heck even Kevin Knox will likely still be available when the lottery is done.

That sounds pretty good to me, I just hope that Danny Ainge has one more leprechaun left for tonight and somehow the Celtic’s end up with the 3rd pick and take Bagley!

. . . if that happens, I would want the Celtics to trade down and take Wendell Carter instead. Bagley is a ridiculous talent, and would flourish on just about any team, but Carter's incredible basketball IQ and defensive instincts would be best served under Brad Stevens, and he would be tutored by someone who I think Wendell should model his NBA game after: Al Horford.

Bagley deserves to be on a team where he can be the primary or secondary option as a scorer. He needs reps to better his offensive game, which has an enormous ceiling if properly developed. His scoring would almost be wasted on the Celtics, where he would be the 4th or 5th option at best.

BigZ
05-15-2018, 02:29 PM
The Clippers would be a good fit for Marvin but I'm not sure they will get a high pick

DangerDevil
05-15-2018, 02:39 PM
. . . if that happens, I would want the Celtics to trade down and take Wendell Carter instead. Bagley is a ridiculous talent, and would flourish on just about any team, but Carter's incredible basketball IQ and defensive instincts would be best served under Brad Stevens, and he would be tutored by someone who I think Wendell should model his NBA game after: Al Horford.

Bagley deserves to be on a team where he can be the primary or secondary option as a scorer. He needs reps to better his offensive game, which has an enormous ceiling if properly developed. His scoring would almost be wasted on the Celtics, where he would be the 4th or 5th option at best.

I would be ecstatic with that outcome as well, especially if that results in Ainge getting another asset out of the deal. I agree that Wendell and his skill set are probably a better fit for the Celtics but Bagley seems like he has more star potential based on the freakish athleticism he displayed. Even Bamba would probably be a better fit for the Celtics if they end up with the 2nd or 3rd pick.

In any case even if Dannyís luck of the Irish has run out and they donít steal the 2nd or 3rd pick I would love for them to use their pick at the end of the 1st round to take one of the other Blue Devils that should still be around and I wish they still had their 2nd round pick so they could take one of Duval or Trent if someone they fall that far.

kAzE
05-15-2018, 02:43 PM
The Clippers would be a good fit for Marvin but I'm not sure they will get a high pick

By lottery odds, the most likely teams to end up with the #3 overall pick (where I think Bagley is most likely to be taken) are Phoenix, Memphis, and Dallas. All of these teams are actually pretty good landing spots for him. Phoenix is his hometown, and Devin Booker is a perfect compliment to Bagley's game. Memphis and Dallas are also both teams in dire need of a big-time scorer in the front court.

For Marvin's sake, I hope he ends up in Dallas, because Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches in basketball, and they need a go-to scorer badly. Their leading scorer this season was HARRISON BARNES, for crying out loud. That's ugly.

flyingdutchdevil
05-15-2018, 02:49 PM
By lottery odds, the most likely teams to end up with the #3 overall pick (where I think Bagley is most likely to be taken) are Phoenix, Memphis, and Dallas. All of these teams are actually pretty good landing spots for him. Phoenix is his hometown, and Devin Booker is a perfect compliment to Bagley's game. Memphis and Dallas are also both teams in dire need of a big-time scorer in the front court.

For Marvin's sake, I hope he ends up in Dallas, because Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches in basketball, and they need a go-to scorer badly. Their leading scorer this season was HARRISON BARNES, for crying out loud. That's ugly.

In the sense that they are both offensive stubs without any defensive acumen?

kAzE
05-15-2018, 02:53 PM
In the sense that they are both offensive stubs without any defensive acumen?

I know you're joking, but I mean . . . it's pretty hard to judge that with young players who are switching head coaches every year. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Booker's lack of defense just yet. The best way to tank without looking like you're tanking is to just not try very hard on defense.

By the way, what are your thoughts on my "trade down to get Wendell Carter" plan for the Celtics? (In the 2.9% chance event that they actually get a lottery pick)

flyingdutchdevil
05-15-2018, 03:03 PM
I know you're joking, but I mean . . . it's pretty hard to judge that with young players who are switching head coaches every year. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Booker's lack of defense just yet. The best way to tank without looking like you're tanking is to just not try very hard on defense.

By the way, what are your thoughts on my "trade down to get Wendell Carter" plan for the Celtics?

You mean trade up to get Carter? I'd love it. He's my favorite player in the draft for the Celtics (okay, Ayton is. But the Celts can't get him).

I'd trade a lottery pick next year to get Carter. I think he's that great and effective for Boston.

kAzE
05-15-2018, 03:12 PM
You mean trade up to get Carter? I'd love it. He's my favorite player in the draft for the Celtics (okay, Ayton is. But the Celts can't get him).

I'd trade a lottery pick next year to get Carter. I think he's that great and effective for Boston.

I did actually mean trade down (in the unlikely event they get the #2 or #3 pick). And we're on the exact same page. I think Ayton and Carter are the 2 guys who would help the C's the most.

Getting Ayton isn't quite impossible, just really close to that. That C's would need the #2 pick and someone would have to take Doncic #1 overall. I'd give it a 0.5% (200 to 1) chance.

RPS
05-15-2018, 03:25 PM
Getting Ayton isn't quite impossible, just really close to that. That C's would need the #2 pick and someone would have to take Doncic #1 overall.In the current NBA, I'm afraid Ayton doesn't have the defensive chops to justify the #1 pick. I'm highly skeptical, especially on the perimeter. That said, I suspect that PHX will grab him if they can. On the other hand, WC would be a great pick for the Cs. He can switch on the pick-and-roll across all five positions.

kAzE
05-15-2018, 03:32 PM
In the current NBA, I'm afraid Ayton doesn't have the defensive chops to justify the #1 pick. I'm highly skeptical, especially on the perimeter. That said, I suspect that PHX will grab him if they can. On the other hand, WC would be a great pick for the Cs. He can switch on the pick-and-roll across all five positions.

I dunno about that . . . the whole reason we switched to zone for keeps last season was BECAUSE Wendell was having trouble staying with guards on switches. He was a defensive monster in the zone because he could simply camp in the paint.

I'm sure Wendell will continue to improve, but considering he's already 260 pounds and not likely to lose a whole lot of weight as he gets older, I would be concerned with his lateral quickness against NBA perimeter players.

I view Ayton as a bigger, more talented, and more athletic center than Wendell, but Wendell's basketball IQ is far better. He's one of the smartest players in this draft. Ayton is still the better overall prospect, but it actually wouldn't shock me if WC had a better career than Ayton, or Bagley for that matter.

DangerDevil
05-15-2018, 03:38 PM
I'd trade a lottery pick next year to get Carter. I think he's that great and effective for Boston.

I think Ainge actually outmaneuvered himself with the protection that he worked into this yearís pick(2-5). I think I would take the 9th pick this year over the potential of next yearís 2nd pick. I am guessing part of the protection was based on the fact that the Celtics still had the Nets pick when they made the trade with the Sixers.

RPS
05-15-2018, 03:46 PM
I dunno about that . . . the whole reason we switched to zone for keeps last season was BECAUSE Wendell was having trouble staying with guards on switches. He was a defensive monster in the zone because he could simply camp in the paint.I thought other freshman struggled much more than WC did in man-to-man. I don't expect WC to play guards straight up. But I have no trouble seeing him do as well as Looney did last night or, in time, doing as well as Horford does. I can't see anything close to that from Ayton.

Kedsy
05-15-2018, 04:21 PM
Is there some thread where we can talk about the draft but not have 85% of the posts be about the Celtics?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-15-2018, 04:25 PM
Is there some thread where we can talk about the draft but not have 85% of the posts be about the Celtics?

Sure, once The Almighty Brad Stevens is annointed at Duke.

DukeTrinity11
05-15-2018, 04:25 PM
Is there some thread where we can talk about the draft but not have 85% of the posts be about the Celtics?

Haha it does seem the Celtics are the NBA team of choice for the majority of Duke fans with Kyrie, Jayson and Pagliuca. ;)

DangerDevil
05-15-2018, 04:27 PM
Haha it does seem the Celtics are the NBA team of choice for the majority of Duke fans with Kyrie, Jayson and Pagliuca. ;)

And half of Semi

MartyClark
05-15-2018, 04:53 PM
And half of Semi

Demi Semi?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-15-2018, 04:58 PM
Demi Semi?

Hemidemisemiquaver?

BigZ
05-15-2018, 05:55 PM
It would be hilarious if Cavs Celtics and Sixers end up with top 3 picks

JasonEvans
05-15-2018, 06:08 PM
It would be hilarious if Cavs Celtics and Sixers end up with top 3 picks

Frozen!!
http://czabe.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/stern_lottery1.jpg

CrazyNotCrazie
05-15-2018, 06:18 PM
Luke and Elton will both be on the stage

lotusland
05-15-2018, 06:22 PM
Bagley will be the best NBA player in this draft. Ayton will likely be good but Bagley will be great. Someone is going to be fired for picking Ayton and/or Doncic ahead of Bags. That is my prediction.

DangerDevil
05-15-2018, 07:11 PM
It would be hilarious if Cavs Celtics and Sixers end up with top 3 picks

Yes it would but I believe that only 2 of the 3 can, it is an either or between the 76ers and Celtics. It still would be hilarous if the Cavs and the Celtics/76ers get two of the top three picks.

JasonEvans
05-15-2018, 07:22 PM
Yes it would but I believe that only 2 of the 3 can, it is an either or between the 76ers and Celtics. It still would be hilarous if the Cavs and the Celtics/76ers get two of the top three picks.

Nope, lottery happening now and the top 3 (to be revealed in moments) are the Suns, Hawks, and Kings. To me, this means the Hawks get one of Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley. I'm thrilled!!

DangerDevil
05-15-2018, 07:27 PM
Nope, lottery happening now and the top 3 (to be revealed in moments) are the Suns, Hawks, and Kings. To me, this means the Hawks get one of Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley. I'm thrilled!!

And you thought they blew it with their wins at the end of the season.

JasonEvans
05-15-2018, 07:29 PM
Nope, lottery happening now and the top 3 (to be revealed in moments) are the Suns, Hawks, and Kings. To me, this means the Hawks get one of Ayton, Doncic, or Bagley. I'm thrilled!!

Phoenix, then Kings, then Hawks.

duke74
05-15-2018, 08:00 PM
SB Nation has Bags to Memphis at 4 and Wendell to Knicks at 9. No other in first round.

AtlDuke72
05-15-2018, 08:27 PM
Donít bet on the Hawks drafting Aynton, Doncic or Bagley. This is the franchise that failed to sign David Thompson, drafted Marvin the Tar Heel instead of Chris Paul, drafted Shelden Williams and just ran off Budenholzer. They are perfectly capable of screwing this up too.

flyingdutchdevil
05-15-2018, 09:09 PM
Don’t bet on the Hawks drafting Aynton, Doncic or Bagley. This is the franchise that failed to sign David Thompson, drafted Marvin the Tar Heel instead of Chris Paul, drafted Shelden Williams and just ran off Budenholzer. They are perfectly capable of screwing this up too.

So Trae Young with the number one pick?

The Hawks should draft Ayton. He’s the best person to build around.

Edit: just realized the hawks are picking 3. Oops. Ayton is long gone by then.

BD80
05-15-2018, 10:00 PM
Is there some thread where we can talk about the draft but not have 85% of the posts be about the Celtics?

Like anyone wants to talk about the Sixers!

(except of course the Sixer players)

Troublemaker
05-16-2018, 12:25 AM
Bagley will be the best NBA player in this draft. Ayton will likely be good but Bagley will be great. Someone is going to be fired for picking Ayton and/or Doncic ahead of Bags. That is my prediction.

Marvin's such an athletic freak that I can't completely rule this out, but he'll have to show major adaptation and development of what are currently ancillary skills for him. No NBA team is going to build around postup offense, not even for Marvin Bagley. So he's going to have to hit 3s consistently (and his FT shooting may be a bad omen for that), and he's going to have to not just hold up in switches (which he wasn't able to do at Duke) but thrive in them. Become one of the best switching bigs in the league because his rim protection probably isn't going to be there based on his stats at Duke and his Vitruvian arm length.

JNort
05-16-2018, 12:54 AM
Marvin's such an athletic freak that I can't completely rule this out, but he'll have to show major adaptation and development of what are currently ancillary skills for him. No NBA team is going to build around postup offense, not even for Marvin Bagley. So he's going to have to hit 3s consistently (and his FT shooting may be a bad omen for that), and he's going to have to not just hold up in switches (which he wasn't able to do at Duke) but thrive in them. Become one of the best switching bigs in the league because his rim protection probably isn't going to be there based on his stats at Duke and his Vitruvian arm length.
Yeah I would be scared of him as a gm. My top targets are Doncic, Ayton and Sexton. I feel bad for whomever takes Young, he seems like a role player who hasn't learned to be a role player (like early Jamal Crawford or JR Smith)

weezie
05-16-2018, 06:33 AM
... where we can talk about the draft but not have 85% of the posts be about the Celtics?

Sure! Here's .01% about the Pistons apparently looking at Grayson since they've slid well into the second round. That would be a nice upgrade to their current lineup and I'm not even kidding about that. What a woeful sitch. I feel sorry for anybody drafted by them. That was a real fun year for you, wasn't it Luke?

JasonEvans
05-16-2018, 07:55 AM
The next big event for draft watchers begins today with the 4 day combine in Chicago. I am sure we will start to get reports over the weekend about who is raising eyebrows in drills and scrimmages. That could provide hints about some of the 2nd rounders who have a shot at moving up to the end of the first.

After that, we look to June 11 which is the date for early entry guys to decide to pull out of the draft. There are a number of guys who could really impact the college scene if they decide to come back to school such as Nova's Spellman and DiVincenzo; Kentucky's Gabriel, Washington, and Vanderbilt; and Azubuike of Kansas. In the ACC, Tyus Battle and Josh Okogie have decisions that could play a major role on the ACC standings.

-Jason "I bet at least 6 of the 8 guys I listed there decide to stay in the draft... the lure of getting your pro career started is tough to set aside once you can taste it" Evans

fraggler
05-16-2018, 08:16 AM
Sure! Here's .01% about the Pistons apparently looking at Grayson since they've slid well into the second round. That would be a nice upgrade to their current lineup and I'm not even kidding about that. What a woeful sitch. I feel sorry for anybody drafted by them. That was a real fun year for you, wasn't it Luke?

The Pistons really crippled themselves when they way overpaid Reggie Jackson to be their point guard several years ago. He isn't good at anything, really. Kept them stuck on the bad side of neutral. I don't blame Van Gundy for swinging for the fences with the Blake Griffin trade, but that roster really is bad on the perimeter, even if Luke keeps trending upward. I love Grayson. I would hate for him to be picked up by the Pistons. I keep praying for him to go to a contender or at least an organization that has a good coach. In fact, the Celtics should trade Rozier and draft Grayson :P

JasonEvans
05-16-2018, 08:16 AM
So, I was on a local Atlanta radio station this morning talking about movies (Deadpool 2 and Solo), but at the end we had a quick conversation about the Atlanta Hawks NBA draft decision of Marvin Bagley or Jaren Jackson Jr. You can listen to it here.

https://soundcloud.com/jason-evans-151762463/deadpool-2-solo-movie-reviews-on-the-radio

-Jason "I also got into an argument with one of the radio hosts about how good Jayson Tatum will be... but that was not included in this clip" Evans

UrinalCake
05-16-2018, 08:20 AM
the lure of getting your pro career started is tough to set aside once you can taste it

Yeah I think by the time you go through the combine and the workouts, youíve been around NBA people and have gotten into the mindset of being a pro, and itís almost impossible at that point to turn around and choose to go back to school even when that is clearly the better decision. For this reason, Iím not putting too much value into that commissionís proposal to allow undrafted players to return to school. I mean Iím all in favor of allowing it, I just donít think very many players would ever do it. And the fringe players who are on the boundaries of being drafted are the ones who are most in need of an agent, yet theyíre not allowed to have one. Theyíre better off going all in from the start and hiring an agent.

I think Spellman is gone but DiVincenzo returning would be huge for them.

UrinalCake
05-16-2018, 08:27 AM
I love Grayson. I would hate for him to be picked up by the Pistons. I keep praying for him to go to a contender or at least an organization that has a good coach.

ESPN had an article up suggesting Grayson would be a good fit for the Warriors. That would be cool to see him and Cook reunited. Although Iím not sure the general public could handle he and Draymond being on the same team.

sagegrouse
05-16-2018, 08:55 AM
Yeah I think by the time you go through the combine and the workouts, youíve been around NBA people and have gotten into the mindset of being a pro, and itís almost impossible at that point to turn around and choose to go back to school even when that is clearly the better decision. For this reason, Iím not putting too much value into that commissionís proposal to allow undrafted players to return to school. I mean Iím all in favor of allowing it, I just donít think very many players would ever do it. And the fringe players who are on the boundaries of being drafted are the ones who are most in need of an agent, yet theyíre not allowed to have one. Theyíre better off going all in from the start and hiring an agent.

I think Spellman is gone but DiVincenzo returning would be huge for them.

How has it worked out in the past? Suppose a player goes to the combine and is clearly in the bottom one-third. Moreover, it's worse than that because the best players don't participate in the scrimmages. Why the heck would a player who had done so poorly want to stay in the draft? Heck, it sounds like he would benefit from a college degree, so he can at least get a job in basketball or elsewhere.

luvdahops
05-16-2018, 08:59 AM
Marvin's such an athletic freak that I can't completely rule this out, but he'll have to show major adaptation and development of what are currently ancillary skills for him. No NBA team is going to build around postup offense, not even for Marvin Bagley. So he's going to have to hit 3s consistently (and his FT shooting may be a bad omen for that), and he's going to have to not just hold up in switches (which he wasn't able to do at Duke) but thrive in them. Become one of the best switching bigs in the league because his rim protection probably isn't going to be there based on his stats at Duke and his Vitruvian arm length.

Valid points all. I do think Bagley's lateral quickness and agility - which are elite for a 6'11" guy - give him the potential to be highly effective as a switching big. I know he didn't flash that with any consistency at Duke, especially after the switch to zone. But I would note that defense was a big question mark for Markannan coming into the league, and he proved to be a surprisingly agile and effective on switches, and in defending the perimeter generally, though he's not much of a rim protector, either.

The other aspect of Bagley's game that draft evaluators seem to be sleeping on a bit is his ability to run the floor, and finish in transition. That alone will make him a tough matchup for the majority of NBA bigs, particularly 5s.

Though FT shooting clearly has predictive value for 3 point shooting at the NBA level, there are certainly examples of guys who were poor Ft shooters in college but became competent 3 shooters in the NBA (e.g. the Brow, Cousins and Kyle Kuzma were all 63% or worse for their college careers).

brevity
05-16-2018, 09:24 AM
A possible winner in the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery: 2017 draftee Harry Giles. Sacramento will probably take Luka Doncic at #2, and he's the only high lottery pick that won't push Giles further down a big man depth chart.


...but at the end we had a quick conversation about the Atlanta Hawks NBA draft decision of Marvin Bagley or Jaren Jackson Jr.

Neither. The Hawks are the Hawks, and they are taking the undersized Oklahoma guy. And not just any undersized Oklahoma guy: why settle for Trae Young when you can draft Baker Mayfield?

Seriously, though, they're going to overthink this and draft Jaren Jackson Jr. "We saw less from him, so he must be good."

kAzE
05-16-2018, 10:10 AM
A possible winner in the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery: 2017 draftee Harry Giles. Sacramento will probably take Luka Doncic at #2, and he's the only high lottery pick that won't push Giles further down a big man depth chart.



Neither. The Hawks are the Hawks, and they are taking the undersized Oklahoma guy. And not just any undersized Oklahoma guy: why settle for Trae Young when you can draft Baker Mayfield?

Seriously, though, they're going to overthink this and draft Jaren Jackson Jr. "We saw less from him, so he must be good."

In all fairness to NBA teams, Jaren Jackson DOES have two extremely coveted NBA big man skills that Marvin Bagley does not currently possess: Elite rim protection (3.0 blocks in just 21.8 minutes per game in college, which is unreal) and a very consistent jump shot (1.1 3FGs made per game on 39.6% shooting from 3).

We've seen how some big men can be incredible in college without those two skills and then become a total dud in the NBA (RIP Big Jah). I'm not saying Bagley = Okafor at all, but I think you could make a case for Jackson over Bagley. It's not what I would do, but it's not something you could really knock the Hawks for if that's the direction they decide to go.

However, with that said, Bagley is clearly the more talented offensive player, and usually a team so devoid of talent like the Hawks would be best served going with the guy who can get you buckets.

thedukelamere
05-16-2018, 10:25 AM
The next big event for draft watchers begins today with the 4 day combine in Chicago. I am sure we will start to get reports over the weekend about who is raising eyebrows in drills and scrimmages. That could provide hints about some of the 2nd rounders who have a shot at moving up to the end of the first.

After that, we look to June 11 which is the date for early entry guys to decide to pull out of the draft. There are a number of guys who could really impact the college scene if they decide to come back to school such as Nova's Spellman and DiVincenzo; Kentucky's Gabriel, Washington, and Vanderbilt; and Azubuike of Kansas. In the ACC, Tyus Battle and Josh Okogie have decisions that could play a major role on the ACC standings.

-Jason "I bet at least 6 of the 8 guys I listed there decide to stay in the draft... the lure of getting your pro career started is tough to set aside once you can taste it" Evans

This might be a dumb question, but I can't seem to find the answer anywhere... Perhaps the lack of answers IS the answer?

Is the combine open to the public? Do they sell tickets? If so I might pop up to Chicago and cheer on our boys (and maybe hold a sign saying "Where's Joel and Theo :confused:")

luvdahops
05-16-2018, 10:30 AM
In all fairness to NBA teams, Jaren Jackson DOES have two extremely coveted NBA big man skills that Marvin Bagley does not currently possess: Elite rim protection (3.0 blocks in just 21.8 minutes per game in college, which is unreal) and a very consistent jump shot (1.1 3FGs made per game on 39.6% shooting from 3).

We've seen how some big men can be incredible in college without those two skills and then become a total dud in the NBA (RIP Big Jah). I'm not saying Bagley = Okafor at all, but I think you could make a case for Jackson over Bagley. It's not what I would do, but it's not something you could really knock the Hawks for if that's the direction they decide to go.

However, with that said, Bagley is clearly the more talented offensive player, and usually a team so devoid of talent like the Hawks would be best served going with the guy who can get you buckets.

I would not want to be the GM that takes Jackson over Bagley. That decision could look very, very bad over the long term. Jackson's offensive production at MSU was extremely inconsistent, and while he can make jump shots, including 3s at a healthy clip, his shooting form is very ugly, with a low release that may not fully translate against NBA defenders. There are also questions about his motor and basketball IQ. Despite the positional fit question marks, I think Bagley is far more likely to be a perennial NBA All-Star, though one could make the argument that Jackson's floor is higher.

flyingdutchdevil
05-16-2018, 10:37 AM
In all fairness to NBA teams, Jaren Jackson DOES have two extremely coveted NBA big man skills that Marvin Bagley does not currently possess: Elite rim protection (3.0 blocks in just 21.8 minutes per game in college, which is unreal) and a very consistent jump shot (1.1 3FGs made per game on 39.6% shooting from 3).

We've seen how some big men can be incredible in college without those two skills and then become a total dud in the NBA (RIP Big Jah). I'm not saying Bagley = Okafor at all, but I think you could make a case for Jackson over Bagley. It's not what I would do, but it's not something you could really knock the Hawks for if that's the direction they decide to go.

However, with that said, Bagley is clearly the more talented offensive player, and usually a team so devoid of talent like the Hawks would be best served going with the guy who can get you buckets.

Yup. I like Jaren as the 3rd pick. His upside may not be as high as Marvin, but his skill set translates better to the NBA.

That 3rd pick is a tough one for the Hawks due to available options. Assuming Ayton and Luca are off the table (smart guesses at this point), what do you do? Bags, Carter, Jackson, Banba, Porter, young... its a crazy list.

kAzE
05-16-2018, 10:42 AM
There's a small chance he goes #4 or #5, but I think Jackson/Bamba are likely to be drafted in those spots. So in that scenario, I think Wendell is most likely to go #7 overall to the Chicago Bulls. The Magic got rid of their failed PG experiment from years past (Elfrid Payton), so it seems extremely likely they will pick Trae Young at #6 (which I think is a huge mistake . . . he's not a starting NBA PG, but at the same time, I hope they do it because I don't want Wendell playing in Orlando . . . )

While I'm not thrilled about Fred Hoiberg coaching our boy, it is a pretty decent situation for him to start immediately along side a sweet shooting 4 (Markkanen) to help space the floor for his post game, and a point guard who looks like he could become pretty good (Dunn).

I'm sure CDu is rooting for this.

AtlDuke72
05-16-2018, 11:14 AM
There's a small chance he goes #4 or #5, but I think Jackson/Bamba are likely to be drafted in those spots. So in that scenario, I think Wendell is most likely to go #7 overall to the Chicago Bulls. The Magic got rid of their failed PG experiment from years past (Elfrid Payton), so it seems extremely likely they will pick Trae Young at #6 (which I think is a huge mistake . . . he's not a starting NBA PG, but at the same time, I hope they do it because I don't want Wendell playing in Orlando . . . )


Have you checked with his mother to see if that suits her?

Troublemaker
05-16-2018, 11:19 AM
Valid points all. I do think Bagley's lateral quickness and agility - which are elite for a 6'11" guy - give him the potential to be highly effective as a switching big. I know he didn't flash that with any consistency at Duke, especially after the switch to zone. But I would note that defense was a big question mark for Markannan coming into the league, and he proved to be a surprisingly agile and effective on switches, and in defending the perimeter generally, though he's not much of a rim protector, either.

The other aspect of Bagley's game that draft evaluators seem to be sleeping on a bit is his ability to run the floor, and finish in transition. That alone will make him a tough matchup for the majority of NBA bigs, particularly 5s.

Though FT shooting clearly has predictive value for 3 point shooting at the NBA level, there are certainly examples of guys who were poor Ft shooters in college but became competent 3 shooters in the NBA (e.g. the Brow, Cousins and Kyle Kuzma were all 63% or worse for their college careers).

And some good counterpoints, my friend.

I will say this. If I'm a GM watching these NBA playoffs, Marvin's stock would go up with me. Seeing the superstar centers with traditional center size like Towns and Embiid struggle to get their postup games working must have been painful to watch for the fans of those teams. It's really the "undersized" centers like Horford, Clint Capela, and Anthony Davis (who would both be PFs in the league 15 years ago) that have thrived by using their mobility both defensively and offensively. [Side note: hopefully without sounding too insensitive, Cousins' injury was a blessing in disguise for New Orleans as they got to see what a monster Davis could be at center.]

I air-quoted "undersized" above because I think the new model for an NBA center that has been developing is the mobile (and usually smaller) centers like Horford, Capela (who basically dominated his matchups with Towns and Gobert), Davis, and Draymond. So when we read scouting reports on Bagley that say he's between positions (PF and C), just laugh. Marvin is perhaps the prototype center going forward. He's not undersized; he's sized just right for the modern game.

907bluedevils
05-17-2018, 02:35 PM
Looks like Doncic may be pulling a "Ricky Rubio"

Billy Dat
05-17-2018, 02:59 PM
Combine tweets from Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress

Grayson Allen's 10.31 lane agility speed is one of the five best marks in our NBA Combine database's history. Seems like he's going to end up testing off the charts here athletically.

Trevon Duval, Anfernee Simons, Grayson Allen and Hamidou Diallo all tested vertical leaps over 40 inches (between 40.5 to 41.5). Still early, lot of guys left to be tested.

UrinalCake
05-17-2018, 03:26 PM
I must have fallen asleep, did not realize the combine was this week. I hope Allen puts up some monster numbers. It felt like he lost some athleticism the last couple years (with the understanding that he was injured his whole junior year). Didnít have the ability to blow by his defender as well this past year. But heís still so fundamentally solid, if he measures well then heíll be a first round pick.

UrinalCake
05-17-2018, 03:34 PM
Combine measurements are posted on the NBAís website. I saw Theo Pinsonís name in the list, did not realize he had gotten an invite. I mean, I actually read previously that he and Berry specifically did not get invites, so maybe he was added as an alternate.

https://stats.nba.com/draft/combine-anthro/

CameronBornAndBred
05-17-2018, 03:38 PM
I saw Theo Pinsonís name in the list, did not realize he had gotten an invite. I mean, I actually read previously that he and Berry specifically did not get invites, so maybe he was added as an alternate.


Late addition.
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article211109529.html

JasonEvans
05-17-2018, 04:01 PM
I saw Theo Pinsonís name in the list, did not realize he had gotten an invite. I mean, I actually read previously that he and Berry specifically did not get invites, so maybe he was added as an alternate.

https://stats.nba.com/draft/combine-anthro/

I fully expect Pinson to make the league at some point. He's someone who can do a lot of positive things on the floor. Reminds me a little bit of a (very) poor man's Draymond Green.

thedukelamere
05-17-2018, 04:22 PM
Wendell with a Body Fat of 7.85%... I need to hit the gym.

sagegrouse
05-17-2018, 04:30 PM
I must have fallen asleep, did not realize the combine was this week. I hope Allen puts up some monster numbers. It felt like he lost some athleticism the last couple years (with the understanding that he was injured his whole junior year). Didn’t have the ability to blow by his defender as well this past year. But he’s still so fundamentally solid, if he measures well then he’ll be a first round pick.

I thought Grayson started playing with an ounce or two of common sense this year by not exposing himself to injury by hurtling through the air.

DukeTrinity11
05-17-2018, 04:36 PM
I thought Grayson started playing with an ounce or two of common sense this year by not exposing himself to injury by hurtling through the air.
He held himself back from being his true self then to avoid any further controversy which is understandable but damn we could've won it all if Sophomore Grayson or the Allen from the MSU game this year showed up in the NCAAT.

dukelifer
05-17-2018, 04:38 PM
Combine tweets from Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress

Grayson Allen's 10.31 lane agility speed is one of the five best marks in our NBA Combine database's history. Seems like he's going to end up testing off the charts here athletically.

Trevon Duval, Anfernee Simons, Grayson Allen and Hamidou Diallo all tested vertical leaps over 40 inches (between 40.5 to 41.5). Still early, lot of guys left to be tested.

The three Duke guards all tested pretty well- all in top 10 or so in all tests except in one category where Trent was slow in agility. Surprisingly, Trent had the second highest standing vertical right below Duval for the data posted.

kAzE
05-17-2018, 04:46 PM
I thought Grayson started playing with an ounce or two of common sense this year by not exposing himself to injury by hurtling through the air.

It was also just too crowded in the paint with our 2 big men and their defenders roaming around down there. The lane was much more open when Brandon Ingram was the "power" forward. NBA floor spacing is going to help with that.

CDu
05-17-2018, 05:18 PM
There's a small chance he goes #4 or #5, but I think Jackson/Bamba are likely to be drafted in those spots. So in that scenario, I think Wendell is most likely to go #7 overall to the Chicago Bulls. The Magic got rid of their failed PG experiment from years past (Elfrid Payton), so it seems extremely likely they will pick Trae Young at #6 (which I think is a huge mistake . . . he's not a starting NBA PG, but at the same time, I hope they do it because I don't want Wendell playing in Orlando . . . )

While I'm not thrilled about Fred Hoiberg coaching our boy, it is a pretty decent situation for him to start immediately along side a sweet shooting 4 (Markkanen) to help space the floor for his post game, and a point guard who looks like he could become pretty good (Dunn).

I'm sure CDu is rooting for this.

Yeah, I would love to see my Bulls end up with Carter. My only concern is his lateral quickness. But in terms of bball skills, he is a fantastic pairing with Markkanen. If he can improve his defense, he would be a steal at #7. That is obviously a huge if. But he seems like the type of player who has the work ethic to make it happen.

I would much prefer Carter to the Bridges “bros” or Michael Porter or Young.

sagegrouse
05-17-2018, 05:33 PM
He held himself back from being his true self then to avoid any further controversy which is understandable but damn we could've won it all if Sophomore Grayson or the Allen from the MSU game this year showed up in the NCAAT.

I was making a different point. The earlier versions of Grayson featured kamikaze leaps toward the basket, which were unwise from a basketball career (or even season) perspective.

MChambers
05-17-2018, 05:36 PM
I would not want to be the GM that takes Jackson over Bagley. That decision could look very, very bad over the long term. Jackson's offensive production at MSU was extremely inconsistent, and while he can make jump shots, including 3s at a healthy clip, his shooting form is very ugly, with a low release that may not fully translate against NBA defenders. There are also questions about his motor and basketball IQ. Despite the positional fit question marks, I think Bagley is far more likely to be a perennial NBA All-Star, though one could make the argument that Jackson's floor is higher.

I completely agree. If Jackson's so great, why did he average only 21 mpg at MSU? He routinely was in foul trouble and by the end of the season Izzo played Ben Carter over Jackson. Yes, Jackson is better at shooting threes and blocking shots, but he's not that great of a player. I may have to eat my words (wouldn't be the first time), but I'd take Bagley over Jackson every time.

CDu
05-17-2018, 05:43 PM
I completely agree. If Jackson's so great, why did he average only 21 mpg at MSU? He routinely was in foul trouble and by the end of the season Izzo played Ben Carter over Jackson. Yes, Jackson is better at shooting threes and blocking shots, but he's not that great of a player. I may have to eat my words (wouldn't be the first time), but I'd take Bagley over Jackson every time.

I donít know if Jackson will or will not be great (he has some clear positives and some clear concerns). But it is worth noting that similar comments were made in the Towns/Okafor debate. Towns had the limited minutes and foul concerns, Okafor the gawdy stats. College production (or lack thereof) doesnít always translate.

DavidBenAkiva
05-17-2018, 05:57 PM
I donít know if Jackson will or will not be great (he has some clear positives and some clear concerns). But it is worth noting that similar comments were made in the Towns/Okafor debate. Towns had the limited minutes and foul concerns, Okafor the gawdy stats. College production (or lack thereof) doesnít always translate.

This is incredibly true. Jackson/Bagley isn't quite the same as Towns/Okafor but the point about college production vs. NBA potential is spot on.

There's a saying that "you are the position that you can defend." In the NBA, Jaren Jackson, Jr. has the potential to guard either the 4 or the 5 effectively and as a rookie. There are questions about whether Marvin Bagley III will be able to defend either NBA 4s or 5s. He's very young and talented, and I wouldn't put it past him to figure it out. But it's an open question right now.

Furniture
05-17-2018, 07:56 PM
http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/basketball/charlotte-hornets/article211329104.html

in this interview Grayson is clearly not being shy and he is selling his diversity such as being able to play point. Smart! His comparison of himself to JJ is funny.

cspan37421
05-17-2018, 08:06 PM
Combine tweets from Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress

Grayson Allen's 10.31 lane agility speed is one of the five best marks in our NBA Combine database's history. Seems like he's going to end up testing off the charts here athletically.



He sounds alarmingly athletic!

Hope Doug Gottlieb was sitting down when he got the news.

UrinalCake
05-17-2018, 08:13 PM
I thought Grayson started playing with an ounce or two of common sense this year by not exposing himself to injury by hurtling through the air.

I get that he was trying to reduce injury, he even talked before the season about having done yoga and other exercises to improve his balance and preserve his body. But it really felt like he didnít have any ability to create separation or get by his defender. Sophomore year Grayson could get by anybody and then use his strength to finish in the paint. The fact that he is putting up monster combine numbers is great, but will also lead some to question why he wasnít more effective this past year when he went through a shooting ďslumpĒ that lasted half the season.

Anyways, Iím rooting for him and I hope he gets picked at the end of the first round where he can go to a contending team and play a role off the bench.

CDu
05-17-2018, 08:36 PM
I get that he was trying to reduce injury, he even talked before the season about having done yoga and other exercises to improve his balance and preserve his body. But it really felt like he didnít have any ability to create separation or get by his defender. Sophomore year Grayson could get by anybody and then use his strength to finish in the paint. The fact that he is putting up monster combine numbers is great, but will also lead some to question why he wasnít more effective this past year when he went through a shooting ďslumpĒ that lasted half the season.

Anyways, Iím rooting for him and I hope he gets picked at the end of the first round where he can go to a contending team and play a role off the bench.

He just wasnít nearly good enough a dribbler to create separation easily. So he never could take full advantage of that athleticism.

brevity
05-17-2018, 09:44 PM
Looks like Doncic may be pulling a "Ricky Rubio"

NBA.com elaborates on that random comment: Potential top pick Luka Doncic will make NBA decision after Euroleague season (http://www.nba.com/article/2018/05/17/potential-top-pick-luka-doncic-unsure-if-he-will-play-nba-next-season).


"I donít know if these are my last two games in Europe. I am still weighing my options and I will make that decision at the end of the season," Doncic said in a news conference on Thursday.

The Phoenix Suns, which won the NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday, could be interested in the Slovenian guard because of his ties with new head coach Igor Kokoskov, who coached Slovenia to the EuroBasket 2017 championship.

While we're at it, Michael Porter Jr. calls himself 'best player in this draft' (http://www.nba.com/article/2018/05/17/michael-porter-jr-calls-himself-best-player-draft).


"I know without a doubt," Porter said. "I've played against all these guys. They're all great players. But I'm the best player in this draft and I can't wait to show what I'm capable of."

DavidBenAkiva
05-18-2018, 08:09 AM
While we're at it, Michael Porter Jr. calls himself 'best player in this draft' (http://www.nba.com/article/2018/05/17/michael-porter-jr-calls-himself-best-player-draft).

There's no reason the kid shouldn't feel like he's the best player in the draft. But Josh Jackson was adamant that he was the best player in last year's draft and should have gone ahead of Tatum, Fultz, Ball, etc. The jury is still out on Fultz and Ball but Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum were demonstrably better than Josh Jackson as a rookie. If you have the confidence, then you should have the production to back it up.

Billy Dat
05-18-2018, 08:28 AM
As a Knicks fan, Miles Bridges is in the range of the players available at #9 and I'm not feeling it. I feel like he lacks some intangible quality of toughness and/or feel. Am I being irrational?

campered
05-18-2018, 08:29 AM
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/5/17/17366362/grayson-allen-nba-draft-combine-numbers-duke Check out what we fans already knew about Grayson!!

UrinalCake
05-18-2018, 08:35 AM
I donít know if Jackson will or will not be great (he has some clear positives and some clear concerns). But it is worth noting that similar comments were made in the Towns/Okafor debate.

Jackson reminds me more of Frank Kaminsky from that class. Everyone was enamored by the idea of a seven footer who could shoot threes. But heís turned into a bust. Jackson does have much more defensive potential, but I still think Bagley is the much better prospect.

UrinalCake
05-18-2018, 08:41 AM
Michael Porter Jr. calls himself 'best player in this draft'

Interestingly, I was just listening to a podcast in which it was stated that some NBA teams have concerns of Porter being a bit of a prima donna and being soft... and that was BEFORE he made this comment. Every player thinks theyíre the best; he needs to prove it.

If Doncic opted to remain in Europe that would really throw a wrench into this draft. He still has value as a guy who would remain stashed for a year, but all of the teams at the top of the draft are in win-now mode. I do remember when Rubio did the same thing. There was so much hype around him, he had an awesome performance against the USA National Team when he was like 17 years old. Minnesota was willing to draft him knowing he wouldnít play for a year, then another point guard in the same draft (and completely passed on Steph Curry in the process).

JasonEvans
05-18-2018, 09:10 AM
If Doncic opted to remain in Europe that would really throw a wrench into this draft. He still has value as a guy who would remain stashed for a year, but all of the teams at the top of the draft are in win-now mode. I do remember when Rubio did the same thing. There was so much hype around him, he had an awesome performance against the USA National Team when he was like 17 years old. Minnesota was willing to draft him knowing he wouldn’t play for a year, then another point guard in the same draft (and completely passed on Steph Curry in the process).

For a team in multi-year tank mode (like many of the teams at the top of the lottery), drafting Doncic and stashing him for a year is not a net negative. I mean, the Sixers were perfectly fine with drafting Embiid even though he was hurt and would not play at all his rookie year. It just meant they had an additional year of being bad and getting a high pick. It is not altogether different from the Sixers deciding to shelve Simmons last year despite, from many accounts, the possibility he could have come back and played some time in the second half of the season. If you are not in "win now" mode then leaving Doncic over in Europe for and extra season isn't a big disincentive.

Also, I noticed this chart regarding Mo Bamba... he's the longest player in the history of the combine. Not sure if that will help his stock (sorta like Grayson's agility drills, it says something but doesn't tell the whole story), but it can't hurt:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdauoWsUQAAAqK4.jpg

ncexnyc
05-18-2018, 09:16 AM
As a Knicks fan, Miles Bridges is in the range of the players available at #9 and I'm not feeling it. I feel like he lacks some intangible quality of toughness and/or feel. Am I being irrational?

No you're not being irrational. As a fellow Knicks fan I've tried to be reasonable when it comes to discussing who I want us to get with the 9th pick. My wish list is Mikal Bridges or Carter as I feel either player fills a need for the team and both fit into what Fiz is asking for as well. He wants two way players and that's Mikal's calling card and we know Carter can be that as well.

I guess I've soured on Miles because he reminds me of Grayson. I say that because both came back for another year and despite the hype and good feelings that scenario created with the fanbase, the results just weren't there.

As far as the Doncic situation goes, well that would definitely throw a huge monkey wrench into most people's draft plans. I saw where the Okafor vs KAT debate was mentioned and I feel we have that again, only this time it's between MBIII and Bamba. Sorry Marvin, but if I'm the Hawks I've got to go with Mo.

I keep hearing all this talk about the Sixers being one of the rising teams in the East, but let's remember The Process landed them Noel and Okafor to go along with Simmons and Embiid. The jury is still out on Fultz, but I'm just not putting much stock into a kid who was healthy and was glued to the bench for the playoffs. They've got the 10th pick and they probably should go for a SF.

JasonEvans
05-18-2018, 09:16 AM
Another in a long line of links/articles (https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/5/18/17367520/nba-draft-combine-2018-grayson-allen-mohamed-bamba-trae-young) about Grayson's impressive showing at the combine. This comment after watching this video (https://twitter.com/NBA/status/997242862734475264) was really interesting:


He also posted a 40.5-inch vertical, which was tied for sixth best among players who tested Thursday. What makes that even more impressive is that Allen did it as a one-footed leaper.

The first two players in that video are Anfernee Simons (the fifth-year high school player in this draft) and Kentuckyís Hamidou Diallo, who were two of the other six players to post verticals of at least 40 inches. Notice how they took off from two feet. Scouts always look for one-footed leapers because they can get off the ground quicker. Thatís a pretty ridiculous number for Allen off one foot.

UrinalCake
05-18-2018, 09:19 AM
For a team in multi-year tank mode (like many of the teams at the top of the lottery), drafting Doncic and stashing him for a year is not a net negative.

Totally agree, but I think the fan bases of the Suns, Kings and Hawks are going to want a more immediate return from this draft. Philly did a great job of selling their fans on the whole ďProcessĒ concept (which was really just tanking, letís be honest). They were willing to sit through years of losing. But even then it takes some luck to win the draft lottery multiple times, even when you have the best odds.

CrazyNotCrazie
05-18-2018, 09:20 AM
For a team in multi-year tank mode (like many of the teams at the top of the lottery), drafting Doncic and stashing him for a year is not a net negative. I mean, the Sixers were perfectly fine with drafting Embiid even though he was hurt and would not play at all his rookie year. It just meant they had an additional year of being bad and getting a high pick. It is not altogether different from the Sixers deciding to shelve Simmons last year despite, from many accounts, the possibility he could have come back and played some time in the second half of the season. If you are not in "win now" mode then leaving Doncic over in Europe for and extra season isn't a big disincentive.

Also, I noticed this chart regarding Mo Bamba... he's the longest player in the history of the combine. Not sure if that will help his stock (sorta like Grayson's agility drills, it says something but doesn't tell the whole story), but it can't hurt:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdauoWsUQAAAqK4.jpg

I agree 100% - a lot of the teams picking early are unlikely to make the leap next year so waiting a year for Doncic does not matter too much. What makes things more interesting is that the Kings, who many forecast as his likely destination, have traded away their first round pick next year. So if Doncic stays in Europe, the Kings do not benefit in the 2019 draft from another year of bad results.

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2018, 09:24 AM
For a team in multi-year tank mode (like many of the teams at the top of the lottery), drafting Doncic and stashing him for a year is not a net negative. I mean, the Sixers were perfectly fine with drafting Embiid even though he was hurt and would not play at all his rookie year. It just meant they had an additional year of being bad and getting a high pick. It is not altogether different from the Sixers deciding to shelve Simmons last year despite, from many accounts, the possibility he could have come back and played some time in the second half of the season. If you are not in "win now" mode then leaving Doncic over in Europe for and extra season isn't a big disincentive.

Also, I noticed this chart regarding Mo Bamba... he's the longest player in the history of the combine. Not sure if that will help his stock (sorta like Grayson's agility drills, it says something but doesn't tell the whole story), but it can't hurt:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdauoWsUQAAAqK4.jpg

Any T-Rex's in the combine (wingspan shorter than height, like JJ and Marshall)?

UrinalCake
05-18-2018, 09:28 AM
Any T-Rex's in the combine (wingspan shorter than height, like JJ and Marshall)?

Bagley is not quite in t-Rex zone, but reports are that his wingspan to height differential is not very large, thus raising concerns about his defensive potential. His low block rate in college (less than one per game) despite his insane hops only accentuates this concern.

kAzE
05-18-2018, 09:50 AM
Any T-Rex's in the combine (wingspan shorter than height, like JJ and Marshall)?

That would be KU's Svi Mykhailiuk: 6'7.75" with shoes, 6'4.75" wingspan.

That -3 inch gap is the 2nd worst ever recorded at the combine.

JasonEvans
05-18-2018, 10:06 AM
Any T-Rex's in the combine (wingspan shorter than height, like JJ and Marshall)?

Svi Mykhailiuk of Kansas measured 6-7.75 in shoes with a wingspan of 6-4.75. That is historically short arms, I think.
Some guy named Kenrich Williams measured 6-7.5 with a wingspan of 6-7.25.
Trae Young is 6-2 with a 6-3 wingspan. Then again, the guy he is compared to, Steph Curry, measured 6-3.25 with a 6-3.5 wingspan and things turned out ok for him;)
Mo Wagner was 6-11.5 with a 7-0 wingspan.

sagegrouse
05-18-2018, 10:10 AM
Svi Mykhailiuk of Kansas measured 6-7.75 in shoes with a wingspan of 6-4.75. That is historically short arms, I think.
Some guy named Kenrich Williams measured 6-7.5 with a wingspan of 6-7.25.
Trae Young is 6-2 with a 6-3 wingspan. Then again, the guy he is compared to, Steph Curry, measured 6-3.25 with a 6-3.5 wingspan and things turned out ok for him;)
Mo Wagner was 6-11.5 with a 7-0 wingspan.

Ol' Sage is pleased to report that, over the years, his ratio of wingspan to height has actually increased.

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2018, 10:14 AM
That would be KU's Svi Mykhailiuk: 6'7.75" with shoes, 6'4.75" wingspan.

That -3 inch gap is the 2nd worst ever recorded at the combine.

Now THAT is a T-rex!

Ouch. Svi basically lost money with the measurements...

kAzE
05-18-2018, 10:19 AM
Now THAT is a T-rex!

Ouch. Svi basically lost money with the measurements...

Maybe, but maybe not. He played really well in the scrimmages, and that does count for something.

He also destroyed us when we faced them in the elite 8 . . . . seemed like he grabbed every offensive rebound and every loose ball down the final stretch of the game.

JasonEvans
05-18-2018, 10:19 AM
Speaking of having a good combine, Dante DiVencenzo scored #1 in both standing and running vertical leap. That's impressive. Omari Spellman had the best jumping measurements of any of the big men (though many of the top bigs only got measured and did not participate in agility drills). I think the odds are getting slim that either of them come back to Villanova. In fact, I suspect both of them will be drafted higher than Jalen Brunson.

UrinalCake
05-18-2018, 10:22 AM
Still hate him for drilling that three to tie up the game (after Duval and his 6í8Ē wingspan gambled for the steal).

DiVincenzo has put up good numbers, tied with Josh Okogie for highest vertical leap at 42Ē. Iíd expect him to stay in the draft at this point, his stock is never going to be higher.

kAzE
05-18-2018, 10:22 AM
Speaking of having a good combine, Dante DiVencenzo scored #1 in both standing and running vertical leap. That's impressive. Omari Spellman had the best jumping measurements of any of the big men (though many of the top bigs only got measured and did not participate in agility drills). I think the odds are getting slim that either of them come back to Villanova. In fact, I suspect both of them will be drafted higher than Jalen Brunson.

That's good news for us . . I don't want to see those guys on the other side of a NCAA tournament game next year. Sounds like they will both be staying in the draft.

JasonEvans
05-18-2018, 10:25 AM
Speaking of having a good combine, Dante DiVencenzo scored #1 in both standing and running vertical leap. That's impressive. Omari Spellman had the best jumping measurements of any of the big men (though many of the top bigs only got measured and did not participate in agility drills). I think the odds are getting slim that either of them come back to Villanova. In fact, I suspect both of them will be drafted higher than Jalen Brunson.

Also, Josh Okogie posted great athletic measurables (similar to DiVencenzo with even better scores on the agility tests) and then played really intense D while showing off nice outside touch in the scrimmages. There's talk he may be playing his way into a late first round pick and that teams see him as a legit 3&D player in the league.

His return to Tech was a big part of their hope to rise out of the ACC cellar... that now looks quite unlikely. When I interviewed Josh Pastner last November, he talked about how his team needed to "get old." Looks like Okogie will never get there for him.

JasonEvans
05-18-2018, 10:29 AM
That's good news for us . . I don't want to see those guys on the other side of a NCAA tournament game next year. Sounds like they will both be staying in the draft.

Nova is probably going to lose their top 4 scorers, all 4 of whom hit better than 40% of their threes. Booth and Paschal will return and they bring in some good recruits, but I would expect them to take a pretty significant step back next season. I'd bet they are something like a #6 seed next season, perhaps worse.

CDu
05-18-2018, 11:35 AM
Nova is probably going to lose their top 4 scorers, all 4 of whom hit better than 40% of their threes. Booth and Paschal will return and they bring in some good recruits, but I would expect them to take a pretty significant step back next season. I'd bet they are something like a #6 seed next season, perhaps worse.

Yep, if both those guys stay gone, Nova will be a solid but not great team next year.

A-Tex Devil
05-18-2018, 11:50 AM
Bamba is going to be an interesting case. He showed some real flashes at Texas of someone that can turn into an offensive weapon. He's also a guy that can guard the perimeter with some success for a team that likes to switch/switch/switch. He will be an elite interior defender when he gets to the league, and I think his offensive floor is Serge Ibaka.

kAzE
05-18-2018, 12:01 PM
@flyingdutchdevil

What do you think about Grayson Allen with the #27 pick? I really want this to happen :D

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2018, 12:02 PM
@flyingdutchdevil

What do you think about Grayson Allen with the #27 pick? I really want this to happen :D

I don't. No more wings for the Celtics.

kAzE
05-18-2018, 12:11 PM
I don't. No more wings for the Celtics.

Hmm, that's fair. I view him as more of a combo guard, an insurance policy in case both Rozier and Larkin are gone next year. (not sure I'd want to re-sign Larkin anyway, the guy can't stay on the court)

What are you hoping for? a big man? If Mitchell Robinson is still there, I think you gotta take him for the upside, but I don't love any of the big men after he's gone.

This is homer-est thing ever, but I just think Grayson is underrated and is the closest thing to a sure rotation player left on the board at #27. I really think his athleticism is going to shine in the NBA. I've actually seen a mock draft where he goes to the 76ers at #26.

JasonEvans
05-18-2018, 12:40 PM
Hmm, that's fair. I view him as more of a combo guard, an insurance policy in case both Rozier and Larkin are gone next year. (not sure I'd want to re-sign Larkin anyway, the guy can't stay on the court)

What are you hoping for? a big man? If Mitchell Robinson is still there, I think you gotta take him for the upside, but I don't love any of the big men after he's gone.

The Celtics are proof that you cannot have too many athletic, sweet shooting, mid-sized guys. There is always room for more guys like that in the modern NBA. Grayson could be a couple inches taller, but he's not a bad option. If, as some speculate, they cannot afford to keep Rozier (or want to sell high on him this summer), I could see Grayson as an upgrade on Larkin and part of a really nice scrappy bench backcourt with Smart.

NSDukeFan
05-18-2018, 01:43 PM
How could Grayson be a couple inches taller?

😀

Philadukie
05-18-2018, 02:37 PM
The Celtics are proof that you cannot have too many athletic, sweet shooting, mid-sized guys. There is always room for more guys like that in the modern NBA. Grayson could be a couple inches taller, but he's not a bad option. If, as some speculate, they cannot afford to keep Rozier (or want to sell high on him this summer), I could see Grayson as an upgrade on Larkin and part of a really nice scrappy bench backcourt with Smart.

Rozier has one more year left on his current contract. I think they keep him for next year. If everyoneís healthy in 18-19, they have a great shot at pushing GS in the Finals (depending of course on where LeBron goes).

Rozier has proven to be a great back-up who provides a good scoring punch. Heíll get paid in 2019, but until then the value of keeping him is greater than just about anything theyíll get in return or through the draft. The Celtics look good for the future, but theyíre also in a great position to ďwin now.Ē

DangerDevil
05-18-2018, 03:12 PM
@flyingdutchdevil

What do you think about Grayson Allen with the #27 pick? I really want this to happen :D

I am all for anything that keeps the Cameron to The Garden pipeline going!




The Celtics look good for the future, but theyíre also in a great position to ďwin now.Ē

The future for the Celtics is good for a long time. They have a very realistic chance of having a high lottery pick (Sacramento #1 protected), a mid 1st rounder (Clippers lottery protected), and their own pick in next yearís draft. They also could have another late lottery pick coming from Memphis (protected for picks 1-8 in 2019) but more likely will get that pick in 2020 (1-6 protected), or 2021 (Unprotected) in addition to all of their 1st round picks. Not to mention they will get back 2 All Stars in Hayward or Kyrie.

Pretty scary if you arenít a Boston fan.

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

House P
05-18-2018, 03:35 PM
How could Grayson be a couple inches taller?

😀

Not sure if this is what Jason had in mind with his ambiguous wording, but here is one way Grayson could grow a couple inches:

Strange But True: Astronauts Get Taller in Space (https://www.space.com/19116-astronauts-taller-space-spines.html)

Alas, it appears that an astronaut's height returns to normal after a few months back on earth.

############################

As far as actual draft related content goes, Jason also mentioned that Mo Bamba was measured to have the largest wingspan in the history of the pre-draft combine. It appears that Bamba also recorded the second highest standing reach in combine history. Bamba's standing reach was measured at 9'7.5".

Who was the only guy with a higher measured standing reach?

The great Pavel Podkolzin had a standing reach of 9'8". Podkolzin was picked 21st overall in the 2004 draft and scored a total of 4 points in his NBA career (all from the free throw line).

subzero02
05-18-2018, 04:05 PM
Any T-Rex's in the combine (wingspan shorter than height, like JJ and Marshall)?

Scheyer should be included on your 1st team T-rex squad.

ncexnyc
05-18-2018, 04:12 PM
Gary had a really nice day today. He scored 22, however his team got smoked big time.

Billy Dat
05-18-2018, 04:14 PM
@flyingdutchdevil

What do you think about Grayson Allen with the #27 pick? I really want this to happen :D

Can Grayson Allen, the biggest riddle of the NBA draft combine, flourish in the league?
by Chris Mannix
https://sports.yahoo.com/can-grayson-allen-biggest-riddle-nba-draft-combine-flourish-league-072106881.html

luvdahops
05-18-2018, 04:23 PM
I donít know if Jackson will or will not be great (he has some clear positives and some clear concerns). But it is worth noting that similar comments were made in the Towns/Okafor debate. Towns had the limited minutes and foul concerns, Okafor the gawdy stats. College production (or lack thereof) doesnít always translate.

Not sure how far that analogy holds. Though fouls were certainly a factor, Towns' minutes were limited more by the insane frontcourt depth on that Kentucky team, and Calipari's heavy-handed platoon system. Not sure how much you watched MSU play this year. Izzo likes to play a deep bench, but will also ride his stars for big minutes. The minutes Jackson wasn't on the floor weren't generally (if at all) filled by highly rated recruits with clear NBA potential. And he was often yanked out of visible frustration by Izzo. And not just for fouls. He frequently failed to box out or close out on defense, and averaged less than 5 boards per game in conference play (in 22 mpg).

lotusland
05-18-2018, 05:22 PM
How could Grayson be a couple inches taller?

😀

I can show you but itís going to set you back a nickel

https://youtu.be/19UlUJvcQxo

JasonEvans
05-18-2018, 05:43 PM
The future for the Celtics is good for a long time. They have a very realistic chance of having a high lottery pick (Sacramento #1 protected), a mid 1st rounder (Clippers lottery protected), and their own pick in next yearís draft. They also could have another late lottery pick coming from Memphis (protected for picks 1-8 in 2019) but more likely will get that pick in 2020 (1-6 protected), or 2021 (Unprotected) in addition to all of their 1st round picks. Not to mention they will get back 2 All Stars in Hayward or Kyrie.

Pretty scary if you arenít a Boston fan.

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

The Celtics should hope those picks wait a year or so. The 2019 draft is supposed to be pretty weak.

Also, with so many draft assets headed their way, the Celtics will need to be judicious about who they give big money to as their young players mature. Smart has earned a payday. I'm not sure Rozier has and that is why I think they draft someone who can maybe give them some backcourt minutes and they deal Rozier while his stock is high. I could see someone like the Clippers dealing a future #1 for him.

-Jason "one other possibility... deal Kyrie and make Rozier your PG of the future... but unless you are getting Kwahi or someone like that in return, you cannot deal Kyrie" Evans

duke74
05-18-2018, 05:43 PM
Article about Gray in the NY Post out of the AP

https://nypost.com/2018/05/18/what-grayson-allen-is-telling-nba-teams-about-tripping-days/?utm_campaign=iosapp&utm_source=mail_app

subzero02
05-18-2018, 06:42 PM
https://nypost.com/2018/05/18/what-grayson-allen-is-telling-nba-teams-about-tripping-days/?utm_campaign=iosapp&utm_source=mail_app

Kedsy
05-18-2018, 07:59 PM
...deal Rozier while his stock is high. I could see someone like the Clippers dealing a future #1 for him.

They'd be pretty stupid if they did. What's the difference between Rozier and Patrick Beverley, other than Beverley being a better defender?

duke74
05-18-2018, 08:42 PM
The NY Post on Carter and the Knicks.

https://nypost.com/2018/05/18/dukes-nba-draft-sleeper-tries-to-quiet-knicks-porzingis-fears/?utm_campaign=iosapp&utm_source=mail_app

JasonEvans
05-18-2018, 08:52 PM
They'd be pretty stupid if they did. What's the difference between Rozier and Patrick Beverley, other than Beverley being a better defender?

Since becoming a starter, Rozier has averaged almost 17 ppg with 6 rebounds and 6 assists per game. He's among the best rebounding PGs in the game. Beverly is significantly worse in every major statistical category. Perhaps most significantly, Beverly is almost 30 (and has likely played his best seasons already) while Rozier is just 23. I get that Beverly is a fine defender but it is easy to see why a NBA team would greatly covet Rozier more.

Furniture
05-18-2018, 10:24 PM
Gary did do well.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2776752-nba-combine-2018-day-2-donte-divincenzo-gary-trent-jr-shine-in-scrimmage

Highlights.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/997602578421645312/video/1

He also said this...

Gary Trent Jr. on Carter's talent (https://twitter.com/JohnDenton555/status/997594038877544449): "If Marvin (Bagley III) wasn't at Duke, Wendell would be in the conversation for the No. 1 pick."

Kedsy
05-19-2018, 12:04 AM
Since becoming a starter, Rozier has averaged almost 17 ppg with 6 rebounds and 6 assists per game. He's among the best rebounding PGs in the game. Beverly is significantly worse in every major statistical category. Perhaps most significantly, Beverly is almost 30 (and has likely played his best seasons already) while Rozier is just 23. I get that Beverly is a fine defender but it is easy to see why a NBA team would greatly covet Rozier more.

Their per minute numbers in 2017-18 were pretty similar. Rozier rebounded better, but Beverley had a lot more steals and is a better defender. Though it's also true that Beverley didn't play very much in 2017-18, due to injury. If you instead compare Rozier's 2017-18 per minute numbers to Beverley's 2016-17 per minute numbers, Rozier was a better scorer (possibly because Beverley had to share the ball with James Harden), but Beverley was better in assists, steals, and rebounds (while still being a better defender). In addition, Beverley's shooting percentages in both 2016-17 and 2017-18 were the same or better than Rozier's 2017-18 numbers. So you don't appear to be correct that "Beverley is significantly worse in every major statistical category." Obviously you are right that Rozier is younger, but if he's even close to as highly regarded as you think, someone's going to have to pay him a lot more than they'd have to pay Beverley, starting in 2019-20.

In any event, if the Clippers offer the Celtics a first round pick for Rozier, then I'll admit you were right. But I'll still think they were pretty stupid.

dukelifer
05-19-2018, 06:01 AM
Not sure if this is what Jason had in mind with his ambiguous wording, but here is one way Grayson could grow a couple inches:

Strange But True: Astronauts Get Taller in Space (https://www.space.com/19116-astronauts-taller-space-spines.html)

Alas, it appears that an astronaut's height returns to normal after a few months back on earth.

############################

As far as actual draft related content goes, Jason also mentioned that Mo Bamba was measured to have the largest wingspan in the history of the pre-draft combine. It appears that Bamba also recorded the second highest standing reach in combine history. Bamba's standing reach was measured at 9'7.5".

Who was the only guy with a higher measured standing reach?

The great Pavel Podkolzin had a standing reach of 9'8". Podkolzin was picked 21st overall in the 2004 draft and scored a total of 4 points in his NBA career (all from the free throw line).

Without cinder block evidence- I am not buying 9í8Ē.

JasonEvans
05-19-2018, 08:13 AM
Their per minute numbers in 2017-18 were pretty similar. Rozier rebounded better, but Beverley had a lot more steals and is a better defender. Though it's also true that Beverley didn't play very much in 2017-18, due to injury. If you instead compare Rozier's 2017-18 per minute numbers to Beverley's 2016-17 per minute numbers, Rozier was a better scorer (possibly because Beverley had to share the ball with James Harden), but Beverley was better in assists, steals, and rebounds (while still being a better defender). In addition, Beverley's shooting percentages in both 2016-17 and 2017-18 were the same or better than Rozier's 2017-18 numbers. So you don't appear to be correct that "Beverley is significantly worse in every major statistical category." Obviously you are right that Rozier is younger, but if he's even close to as highly regarded as you think, someone's going to have to pay him a lot more than they'd have to pay Beverley, starting in 2019-20.

In any event, if the Clippers offer the Celtics a first round pick for Rozier, then I'll admit you were right. But I'll still think they were pretty stupid.

I was talking about Rozier's stats the past 30 or so games as a starter, especially his last 14 games in the playoffs. That is where he has blossomed and that is why his stock has soared. Don't look at the full season stats, just look at what he has done since Kyrie went down. Rozier has really shined playing against the best, under the most pressure, over the past month.

And nothing you say counteracts the 30 vs 23 age argument. In 4 years, it is entirely possible that Patrick Beverly will be out of the league. In 4 years, Terry Rozier will be in his prime. Players often get better... significantly better... from 23 to 27. Players almost never get better (other than JJ!!), and often begin to get significantly worse, as they approach their mid 30s.

I was just picking the Clippers at random, not saying they would actively move to get Rozier. My larger point was that I think a middle-tier team that doesn't have a great PG situation would move a 1st rounder for Rozier at this point... though if Ainge wants to trade high on Rozier, he probably moves him (along with some other asset) for a better player, not a pick, as the Celtics almost have too many picks in the future at this point.

-Jason "I wonder if Boston tries to get into the lottery this year. It is a deep draft and I bet Ainge hates to be missing out" Evans

NM Duke Fan
05-19-2018, 10:44 AM
Allen maintains that, while he did have struggles keeping his composure at Duke, he has improved in that area. For him, he says it's about channeling his emotions without taking away his competitive spirit that made him one of the top players in the sport.


https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2018-nba-combine-dukes-grayson-allen-plans-to-address-tripping-incidents-with-teams-ahead-of-draft/

Kedsy
05-19-2018, 01:42 PM
And nothing you say counteracts the 30 vs 23 age argument. In 4 years, it is entirely possible that Patrick Beverly will be out of the league. In 4 years, Terry Rozier will be in his prime.


In four years, he likely wouldn't be on the team that would trade for him now. My point was they'd have to sign him as a free agent to get the years in which he'd be a significantly better player than Beverley. And if they want to do that, they can just sign him as a free agent in two years, rather than give up a draft pick now and hope they can re-sign him when the time comes.

JasonEvans
05-19-2018, 02:00 PM
In four years, he likely wouldn't be on the team that would trade for him now. My point was they'd have to sign him as a free agent to get the years in which he'd be a significantly better player than Beverley. And if they want to do that, they can just sign him as a free agent in two years, rather than give up a draft pick now and hope they can re-sign him when the time comes.

He's a restricted free agent. So, if a team wants to keep him, they can.

skysdad
05-19-2018, 03:55 PM
We know that both Wendell and Marvin are going early for sure lottery picks. As for Gary and Duvall I have no idea but with Grayson I would love to see him with the Celtics . I don't have a favorite NBA team but pull for all our Dukies A young and upcoming team where he could develop into a very reliable and steady player in the NBA. I think Brad Stevens is one of the top best 3 coaches in the NBA possibly the best. I'm not saying this because I am a Celtic fan but with Grayson going there I would have to pull for the Celtics.

DtrainBuckshot
05-19-2018, 03:58 PM
Where do you want Grayson to play?

Duke! 1 more year!

CDu
05-19-2018, 04:21 PM
Yeah, Rozierís play over the last 4 months has been terrific. Whether a team believes that he is finally finding his rhythm in the league at 23 will be key. If he is developing into the player he has been for the last 4 months, that is far better than Beverley. Especially considering age. Rozier is still presumably on the upswing for another year or two, whereas Beverley is all but certainly in decline.

UrinalCake
05-19-2018, 05:56 PM
Gary Trent was quoted speaking up for his former teammate, saying that Wendell is good enough that he would have been in the conversation for the #1 pick had Bagley not been on the same team. Honest reflection or maybe a bit of hyperbole?

kAzE
05-19-2018, 06:31 PM
Gary Trent was quoted speaking up for his former teammate, saying that Wendell is good enough that he would have been in the conversation for the #1 pick had Bagley not been on the same team. Honest reflection or maybe a bit of hyperbole?

I don't think it's hyperbole. "In the conversation" would mean comparable to Ayton and Doncic. If Bagley didn't reclassify, I'd wager Wendell would have averaged 18 and 12 and won ACC player of the year. Wendell was a beast in the box score when Bagley was sidelined.

I wouldn't be shocked if Wendell is a better pro than Marvin, either.It's not something I would make a pie bet on, but it's not that unreasonable. Marvin is a superior athlete, but Wendell's game is a better fit in the NBA. They will both be really good pros.

Steven43
05-19-2018, 06:58 PM
I wouldn't be shocked if Wendell is a better pro than Marvin, either.It's not something I would make a pie bet on, but it's not that unreasonable. Marvin is a superior athlete, but Wendell's game is a better fit in the NBA.
Why is Carterís game a better fit in the NBA? Bagley is faster up and down the court, more explosive, can jump higher, can repeat jump more quickly, and has fairly decent form on his shot, which should improve over time if he practices it like crazy. Carter is stronger, tougher, and a better FT shooter (I think). But to me his game is more like Moses Maloneís. That style doesnít work particularly well in todayís NBA.

UrinalCake
05-19-2018, 06:58 PM
If Bagley didn't reclassify, I'd wager Wendell would have averaged 18 and 12 and won ACC player of the year. Wendell was a beast in the box score when Bagley was sidelined.

The flip side is that without Bagley, Wendell would have received constant double teams without consistent shooters around him, rather than getting single coverage and in some cases having his defender help off of him to cover Bagley. With Javin at the 4 our perimeter shooting would have been even worse. So there's some give and take. He did play really well during those games where Bagley was hurt, and it's an interesting thought exercise to ask if our end result would have been better had Bagley not reclassified. And of course, imagining Bagley coming in THIS season with the rest of the current class is almost too much to handle.

Kedsy
05-19-2018, 10:18 PM
Beverly is significantly worse in every major statistical category.



PER 36 MINUTE NUMBERS Games mpg FG% 3pt% Reb/36 Asts/36 Stls/36 Pts/36
Rozier, 2017-18, before Irving got hurt 67 24.4 0.404 0.384 6.54 3.68 1.43 15.61
Rozier, 2017-18, after Irving got hurt (incl. playoffs) 28 34.9 0.395 0.369 5.89 5.37 1.10 16.49
Beverley, 2017-18 (season cut short by injury) 11 30.3 0.403 0.400 4.86 3.46 2.05 14.49
Beverley, 2016-17 67 30.7 0.420 0.382 6.88 4.92 1.73 11.19


So, two things. First of all, if you look at per 36 numbers, rather than per game numbers, Beverley is not "significantly worse" than Rozier in "every major statistical category." Comparing Beverley's last full season in 2016-17 to Rozier's games after Kyrie got hurt, Beverley was better at rebounds, steals, and shooting percentage, and pretty close in assists; it's only points per 36 where Rozier has a significant advantage (and again, that may be because Beverley shared a backcourt with Harden, since in his truncated 2017-18 with a different team, he was only 2 points per 36 behind Rozier). Plus, as we all agree, Beverley is a better defender than Rozier.

Second, Rozier didn't make some big crazy bump in performance after Kyrie went down. He just played more minutes. His assists per 36 went up a fair amount and he had a slight bump in points, but he got worse in rebounds, steals, and shooting percentage (at least so far; obviously the playoffs aren't over yet).

And, yeah, I realize Rozier would be a restricted free agent in two years, and thus his team could keep him an extra year, but (a) it's only one extra year; and (b) if he ends up being good the team who traded for him now would have to open a bank vault for him (and since he'll never be a superstar that would put his team basically in a Tim Hardaway, Jr. situation which makes it awfully hard to field a great team). If they really thought that salary was justified, they could bid on him and even as a restricted FA they'd have a decent chance of getting him. In other words, your idea only makes sense if you think this guy would be significantly better over the next two years (three if you count the restricted FA year though I don't think you should) than a Patrick Beverley-type (who is basically the same price as Rozier now and probably won't go up too much). And since Patrick Beverley-types aren't too too hard to come by, the difference would have to be quite significant to justify giving away a first round pick. And it's just not, even if you only look at Rozier's late-season and playoff numbers.

Furniture
05-19-2018, 11:18 PM
Hereís an idea. How about a separate thread?
possible names could be:
-All things Celtics
-Rozier/Smart/Beverley
-All things Rozier.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-20-2018, 05:51 AM
Hereís an idea. How about a separate thread?
possible names could be:
-All things Celtics
-Rozier/Smart/Beverley
-All things Rozier.

Are you telling me Brad Stevens doesn't get to be mentioned in every thread?

YmoBeThere
05-20-2018, 07:03 AM
Are you telling me Brad Stevens doesn't get to be mentioned in every thread?

Who is Brad Stevens? Has he won anything?

UrinalCake
05-20-2018, 09:05 AM
Iíve been perusing the mock draft sites and strangely enough most of them have not updated since the combine. I was hoping to gain some insight as to who has moved up or down. NBADraft.net updated Thursday night and actually dropped Duval a few spots down to 30. That was a bit surprising when heís put up great measurements, although maybe it shouldnít be because everyone already knew his athleticism was elite. Trent has measured probably a little better than expected and also played really well in the scrimmages, but doesnít seem to be generating much buzz. His position seems similar to Frank last year, who also had a great combine and wound up the first pick in the second round.

RichardJackson, Iím not as confident about our pie bet as I was at first. I think itís about even money at this point that all four of our freshmen go in the first round.

richardjackson199
05-20-2018, 10:14 AM
I’ve been perusing the mock draft sites and strangely enough most of them have not updated since the combine. I was hoping to gain some insight as to who has moved up or down. NBADraft.net updated Thursday night and actually dropped Duval a few spots down to 30. That was a bit surprising when he’s put up great measurements, although maybe it shouldn’t be because everyone already knew his athleticism was elite. Trent has measured probably a little better than expected and also played really well in the scrimmages, but doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz. His position seems similar to Frank last year, who also had a great combine and wound up the first pick in the second round.

RichardJackson, I’m not as confident about our pie bet as I was at first. I think it’s about even money at this point that all four of our freshmen go in the first round.

Don't worry. I'd obviously be thrilled if my odds were really even money on this one.

From what I've seen, DiVincenzo and Spellman have likely moved into claiming 2 more first-round spots. Although I didn't see that coming, I'm thrilled about it. (Villanova would be just sick next year with those 2 plus Quinerly, Cremo, Paschall, Swider, Booth, Slater, and Gillespie (he impressed me some with smart play in their championship run). Samuels could improve.) But without DiVincenzo and Spellman, we should be better than Nova.

NBADraft.net has been about the only mock that has consistently had Trent and Duval in the first round. I'm thrilled Trent has had a good combine. That had to happen for me to have any chance at all in this bet. I'm guessing most of the mock drafts are waiting to get their sources take with Combine results included. But as the Tatum/Fultz trade showed, teams are probably keeping their true intentions close to the vest to dupe their competitors and get who they really want. Some teams will leak false information of who they want, I imagine.

Draft night will be fun!

Where Grayson goes will also be interesting. If all 5 Dukies go first round, it will of course be the greatest day in my life (first pie) and in Coach K's (as Calipari has clarified). K won't even be at the draft (as always), but this time it will be because he'll be celebrating this culmination of life in Fiji. ;)

Furniture
05-20-2018, 12:52 PM
I really hope all of our guys go first round. I am most concerned however about Trevon. Great news that he did well in measurements. I found this interview interesting:
http://www.nba.com/magic/videos/draft-combine-trevon-duval
Trevon said he made the choice to go pro after a discussion with his family and Coach K based on their thoughts that he would get drafted.

Turk
05-20-2018, 01:56 PM
Why is Carterís game a better fit in the NBA? Bagley is faster up and down the court, more explosive, can jump higher, can repeat jump more quickly, and has fairly decent form on his shot, which should improve over time if he practices it like crazy. Carter is stronger, tougher, and a better FT shooter (I think). But to me his game is more like Moses Maloneís. That style doesnít work particularly well in todayís NBA.

60% free throw shooters get exposed sooner or later, just ask Ben Simmons. (not a Celtic - is this the right thread?) Carter is a better shooter, and I think Carter will be a better defender in the NBA. He blocked more shots than Bagley, and do you remember how he stepped in and took the charge that won the game against Kansas?

UrinalCake
05-20-2018, 02:30 PM
I really hope Grayson goes first round, and honestly I would be happy if he went higher than Trent or Duval. I like the idea of players sticking around for four years and still being considered worthwhile prospects. And I like the notion that a player can choose to stay in school and get his degree without having to fear having his stock tank. Maybe just wishful thinking on my part.

lotusland
05-20-2018, 04:02 PM
I really hope Grayson goes first round, and honestly I would be happy if he went higher than Trent or Duval. I like the idea of players sticking around for four years and still being considered worthwhile prospects. And I like the notion that a player can choose to stay in school and get his degree without having to fear having his stock tank. Maybe just wishful thinking on my part.

Here, here! Dilly Dilly!!

Saratoga2
05-20-2018, 04:40 PM
Don't worry. I'd obviously be thrilled if my odds were really even money on this one.

From what I've seen, DiVincenzo and Spellman have likely moved into claiming 2 more first-round spots. Although I didn't see that coming, I'm thrilled about it. (Villanova would be just sick next year with those 2 plus Quinerly, Cremo, Paschall, Swider, Booth, Slater, and Gillespie (he impressed me some with smart play in their championship run). Samuels could improve.) But without DiVincenzo and Spellman, we should be better than Nova.

NBADraft.net has been about the only mock that has consistently had Trent and Duval in the first round. I'm thrilled Trent has had a good combine. That had to happen for me to have any chance at all in this bet. I'm guessing most of the mock drafts are waiting to get their sources take with Combine results included. But as the Tatum/Fultz trade showed, teams are probably keeping their true intentions close to the vest to dupe their competitors and get who they really want. Some teams will leak false information of who they want, I imagine.

Draft night will be fun!

Where Grayson goes will also be interesting. If all 5 Dukies go first round, it will of course be the greatest day in my life (first pie) and in Coach K's (as Calipari has clarified). K won't even be at the draft (as always), but this time it will be because he'll be celebrating this culmination of life in Fiji. ;)

Gary Trent shot well and played well. Often talked about on our boards as having limited athleticism compared to others, he did well in the vertical jump.
Grayson Allen got very good reviews from the combine and he vertical over 40 inches confirmed views I have always had of him
Trevon Duval also looked very athletic and has a chance at the first round although it might just be to sqeak in
Wendell Carter measured with a big wingspan for a guy 6' 3/4" in bare feet. He is going in the first round
Marvin Bagley did not test but he is a very high lottery pick by all accounts.

Our guys will do well in the draft.

MartyClark
05-20-2018, 04:48 PM
Gary Trent shot well and played well. Often talked about on our boards as having limited athleticism compared to others, he did well in the vertical jump.
Grayson Allen got very good reviews from the combine and he vertical over 40 inches confirmed views I have always had of him
Trevon Duval also looked very athletic and has a chance at the first round although it might just be to sqeak in
Wendell Carter measured with a big wingspan for a guy 6' 3/4" in bare feet. He is going in the first round
Marvin Bagley did not test but he is a very high lottery pick by all accounts.

Our guys will do well in the draft.

I think you missed a cinder block on Wendell's height.

AtlDuke72
05-21-2018, 08:36 AM
I really hope Grayson goes first round, and honestly I would be happy if he went higher than Trent or Duval. I like the idea of players sticking around for four years and still being considered worthwhile prospects. And I like the notion that a player can choose to stay in school and get his degree without having to fear having his stock tank. Maybe just wishful thinking on my part.

Perfect draft for the Hawks will be Bagley at #3 and Grayson at # 19.

flyingdutchdevil
05-21-2018, 10:24 AM
Perfect draft for the Hawks will be Bagley at #3 and Grayson at # 19.

Grayson at #19? That seems incredibly high for him.

Also, drafting Bagley means John Collins becomes expendable. Not saying it's a bad thing, but Collins-Jackson makes a lot more sense than Bagley-Collins. And lastly, Memphis could use Bagley much moreso than ATL.

jimsumner
05-21-2018, 10:38 AM
Grayson at #19? That seems incredibly high for him.

Also, drafting Bagley means John Collins becomes expendable. Not saying it's a bad thing, but Collins-Jackson makes a lot more sense than Bagley-Collins. And lastly, Memphis could use Bagley much moreso than ATL.

Would it not be possible to play Collins and Bagley? Are they really redundant?

Collins is listed as 6-10, 230, Bagley a little bigger. In today's NBA, I think that could work, perhaps work very well.

kAzE
05-21-2018, 10:42 AM
Perfect draft for the Hawks will be Bagley at #3 and Grayson at # 19.

It's looking at this point like a Jaren Jackson is going to be the pick at #3. He's 6 months younger than Bagley and has a much more desirable skill set. Jackson also posted some elite measurements at the combine, which should only further cement him as the clear #3 choice in this draft. He's the ideal center prospect in today's NBA, maybe even more so than DeAndre Ayton, whose defense has been atrocious his entire career.

As good as Bagley is, there are tons of scorers in the NBA. Teams aren't looking for scoring as much from their big men. If Bagley could create his own shot, it would be different, but he's still a big man who needs to catch the ball in the post, and post offense is becoming increasingly frowned upon in the NBA. It is a widely held belief (that is backed up by analytics) that posting up is one of the least efficient ways to run offense in the game.

Jackson's defensive versatility and rim protection allow him to play with any lineup, in any style. Bagley forces a certain style of offense on your team, which limits your options on who you can put around him, and as we know quite well, he's more of a liability on defense than a difference maker. Luckily, Memphis/Dallas are both very good fits for him.

SavDukeGrad
05-21-2018, 10:57 AM
Grayson at #19? That seems incredibly high for him.

Also, drafting Bagley means John Collins becomes expendable. Not saying it's a bad thing, but Collins-Jackson makes a lot more sense than Bagley-Collins. And lastly, Memphis could use Bagley much moreso than ATL.

Although I don't follow the NBA as closely as some of you, a couple of points re John Collins becoming expendable:

I think Collins is considered one of the steals of last year's draft. And if a re-draft were occurring, much like Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell, he would be taken much higher - probably around 9 - 12 from what I've read. The Hawks sound like they are very pleased with his selection and progress.

And I know it's all business, but Mit Shah, Wake Forest clas of 1991, is a part owner of the Hawks. He and Collins were sitting together courtside when Duke played at Wake, and behind the Wake bench when Wake played at Ga Tech, this past season. FWIW

flyingdutchdevil
05-21-2018, 11:10 AM
Would it not be possible to play Collins and Bagley? Are they really redundant?

Collins is listed as 6-10, 230, Bagley a little bigger. In today's NBA, I think that could work, perhaps work very well.

Both are mobile bigs. Both are not good at D right now. Both are not seen as rim protectors (and in today's NBA, you need a rim protector). Both are high energy players. They are more similar than folks think. And, in my opinion, you cannot play two mobile bigs who are better on the offensive end than defensive end without any rim protection. That is not a recipe for success in the modern NBA.

John Collins has the potential to be really good. Bagley has the potential to be great.

So, if you're the Hawks, do you upgrade from really good to great or pair really good with a potentially great 5 in Jaren Jackson? To me, it's a no brainer. You take Jaren Jackson given that the Hawks NEED everything at this point.

ncexnyc
05-21-2018, 11:17 AM
So, if you're the Hawks, do you upgrade from really good to great or pair really good with a potentially great 5 in Jaren Jackson? To me, it's a no brainer. You take Jaren Jackson given that the Hawks NEED everything at this point.
Actually, you take Mo Bamba if you're the Hawks.

phaedrus
05-21-2018, 11:19 AM
If Bagley could create his own shot, it would be different, but he's still a big man who needs to catch the ball in the post, and post offense is becoming increasingly frowned upon in the NBA. It is a widely held belief (that is backed up by analytics) that posting up is one of the least efficient ways to run offense in the game.



I don't think Bagley was quite as chained to the low block as you seem to think. I also remember him leading the fast break, taking his man off the dribble from the elbow, and using a variety of spins, fakes, and runners and hooks to score from the 8-12 foot range. Even when he got the ball down low, he usually made a quick move to get off a shot or a dunk, rather than backing his defender down. His shot is a work in progress, but he's not Jahlil Okafor.

flyingdutchdevil
05-21-2018, 11:31 AM
Actually, you take Mo Bamba if you're the Hawks.

Not a bad idea, but Bamba's floor is Hasheem Thabeet. And if you're the Hawks GM, you don't want that risk. For a #3 pick, you want a little more certainty. I think Jackson makes sense: high floor (albiet lower ceiling), rim protector, good at 3s... he kinda makes sense to me.

COYS
05-21-2018, 11:40 AM
Although I don't follow the NBA as closely as some of you, a couple of points re John Collins becoming expendable:

I think Collins is considered one of the steals of last year's draft. And if a re-draft were occurring, much like Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell, he would be taken much higher - probably around 9 - 12 from what I've read. The Hawks sound like they are very pleased with his selection and progress.

And I know it's all business, but Mit Shah, Wake Forest clas of 1991, is a part owner of the Hawks. He and Collins were sitting together courtside when Duke played at Wake, and behind the Wake bench when Wake played at Ga Tech, this past season. FWIW

While I won't predict future value, Collins stacked up as a top 3 rookie (or top 4 if we include Simmons) in terms of PER, Estimated Wins Added, and Value added. The latter two are particularly impressive since they are affected by minutes played (Collins only averaged 24 mpg). He does have a ways to go on defense, but so do most rookies. I would imagine that the Hawks would now value Collins more like a top 10 or possibly even top 5 pick, so unless another team values him as highly and offers a similar level of return, I'd be surprised to see the Hawks jettison Collins. That being said, I also doubt the Hawks think that Collins is a franchise cornerstone on which a contender can be built. So because of that, I doubt the Hawks will make their pick based on fit with Collins. If they think Bagley is the best available player, I think they'll take him. It's hard to deny his sheer production and athleticism. I'm biased (being both a Duke and Hawks fan) and think that Bagley's upside and potential for stardom is worth the risk (the NBA is littered with offensive stars that were once horrendous on D, including guys like Durant who are now good defenders). I'm not sure the Hawks value him as highly. Either way though, I think they'll be picking the best player (in their minds) available.

UrinalCake
05-21-2018, 11:50 AM
Kind of a tangent here (what else are offseason discussions for?) but everybody keeps saying you need your center to be a rim protector. At the same time, everyone agrees that there are no pure post scorers in the NBA anymore. Which begs the question: if there are no centers who can score in the post, then why do you need a rim protector? You only need someone who can protect the rim against guards and wings who have gotten into the lane, and someone like Bagley or Collins can do that just fine. But more importantly you need a big who can switch and defend the guards and wings out on the perimeter, otherwise they'll be targeted on defense.

I am totally not sold on Jaren Jackson. He seems like a guy that puts up great measurements, but in terms of actual game play on the court he wasn't that impressive. Every year there's a guy who rockets up the boards after an insane combine and this year it's him. Marquese Chriss and Zack Collins say hi.

phaedrus
05-21-2018, 12:02 PM
Both are not seen as rim protectors (and in today's NBA, you need a rim protector).

Do you, though?

Shot-blockers have always been nice to have, and maybe essential if your defensive scheme depends on it. But they hardly seem a prerequisite to success. This past season, the Celtics were 18th and the Cavs were 28th (!) in blocks. Neither has a great rim protector. The Warriors led the league in blocks, but are known for playing long stretches without a center; their blocks largely came from players who traditionally would have been considered 3s or 4s (Durant, Green, Looney). The Rockets have a great shot-blocker but finished 15th this season in blocks.

None of the Spurs, Timberwolves, Thunder, or Wizards, have an elite shot-blocker, though they all had players averaging just over a block per game. The Pacers have an elite shot-blocker in Myles Turner, but overall, they were just 25th in the league in blocks.

New Orleans (Davis and Cousins), Philadephia (Embiid), Utah (Gobert), and Miami (Whiteside) had great rim protectors and good or great seasons. New York (Porzingis), Detroit (Drummond), and Charlotte (Howard) had great rim protectors and poor seasons.

All things being equal, it's better to have a shot-blocker, but it sure doesn't seem like teams are building their rosters around them with consistent results.

yancem
05-21-2018, 12:33 PM
Random thought since this is the Celtics thread; does it make sense for them to look at swapping their 2019 first round pick (from Sac) with Orlando, Chicago or Cleveland? This year's draft is chock full of impact bigs while next year's draft is going to be chock full of impact wings. The Celtics have several young good to great wings, adding Barrett, Reddish, Little or Zion won't change their line up much but Adding Bamba, Carter or possibly Jackson if he falls a couple of spots would. I realize that Celveland is unlike to be be a willing trading partner and Dallas is probably thinking that the Sac pick could fall below 5 and really need a big, so there are limited options but if I was Ainge, I would place a few calls to see what might be possible.

kAzE
05-21-2018, 12:39 PM
Not a bad idea, but Bamba's floor is Hasheem Thabeet. And if you're the Hawks GM, you don't want that risk. For a #3 pick, you want a little more certainty. I think Jackson makes sense: high floor (albiet lower ceiling), rim protector, good at 3s... he kinda makes sense to me.

And his ceiling is Rudy Gobert. But as we've seen the past 2 years in the playoffs, even Gobert can be exploited. Jaren Jackson's ceiling is pretty much the ideal NBA center, and mobile big who can defend pick and rolls and protect the rim, but also space the floor with his perimeter shooting.

RPS
05-21-2018, 02:27 PM
Kind of a tangent here (what else are offseason discussions for?) but everybody keeps saying you need your center to be a rim protector. At the same time, everyone agrees that there are no pure post scorers in the NBA anymore. Which begs the question: if there are no centers who can score in the post, then why do you need a rim protector? You only need someone who can protect the rim against guards and wings who have gotten into the lane, and someone like Bagley or Collins can do that just fine. But more importantly you need a big who can switch and defend the guards and wings out on the perimeter, otherwise they'll be targeted on defense.I don't think Bagley or Collins do this sort of thing very well. I think it has high value.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i443adHOHFY

jimsumner
05-21-2018, 03:32 PM
Josh Okogie to see in draft. GT press release.

richardjackson199
05-21-2018, 03:55 PM
I’ve been perusing the mock draft sites and strangely enough most of them have not updated since the combine. I was hoping to gain some insight as to who has moved up or down. NBADraft.net updated Thursday night and actually dropped Duval a few spots down to 30. That was a bit surprising when he’s put up great measurements, although maybe it shouldn’t be because everyone already knew his athleticism was elite. Trent has measured probably a little better than expected and also played really well in the scrimmages, but doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz. His position seems similar to Frank last year, who also had a great combine and wound up the first pick in the second round.

RichardJackson, I’m not as confident about our pie bet as I was at first. I think it’s about even money at this point that all four of our freshmen go in the first round.

These post-combine mocks should help you feel better about the pie:

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/05/21/2018-nba-mock-draft-combine-lottery-projections-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic-donte-divincenzo

and

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/2018-nba-mock-draft-projections-first-round-top-players-2018-nba-draft-order-may-21

Trent and Duval still all over the map, and not many outside of NBADraft.net talking about Duval as a first-round guy.
Four realistic scenarios:
A - Duval and Trent go in second round.
B- Duval goes second round, Trent goes first.
C- Trent goes second round, Duval goes first.
D- Duval and Trent taken in first round.

I only win the pie with event D. And added probability of any of first 3 events still seems above 50 % (maybe well above 50%) after the combine.

I think Duke's players are all great bets to make with a first-round pick. Clearly others who know much more about this than me disagree. I expect all to be doing well in the league 4 years from now. But we'll see - looking forward to draft night!

Ian
05-21-2018, 04:37 PM
Kind of a tangent here (what else are offseason discussions for?) but everybody keeps saying you need your center to be a rim protector. At the same time, everyone agrees that there are no pure post scorers in the NBA anymore. Which begs the question: if there are no centers who can score in the post, then why do you need a rim protector? You only need someone who can protect the rim against guards and wings who have gotten into the lane, and someone like Bagley or Collins can do that just fine. But more importantly you need a big who can switch and defend the guards and wings out on the perimeter, otherwise they'll be targeted on defense.

I am totally not sold on Jaren Jackson. He seems like a guy that puts up great measurements, but in terms of actual game play on the court he wasn't that impressive. Every year there's a guy who rockets up the boards after an insane combine and this year it's him. Marquese Chriss and Zack Collins say hi.

Bagley didn't do that "just fine". His block rate was pretty low, and it's not just about blocks, it's about making the shots at the rim more difficult leading to more misses. To do this well requires height, long arms, lateral quickness, jumping ability and defensing awareness and anticipation, which can make up for the physical attributes that are less than ideal. Bagley problem was that his arms aren't especially long, and his defensive awareness was very poor.

NM Duke Fan
05-22-2018, 07:18 PM
Saw an article on I believe CBS today that had Trent at 28 in the first round, did not recall seeing Grayson in the first, which surprised me. We will see ...

AtlDuke72
05-22-2018, 09:08 PM
Bagley didn't do that "just fine". His block rate was pretty low, and it's not just about blocks, it's about making the shots at the rim more difficult leading to more misses. To do this well requires height, long arms, lateral quickness, jumping ability and defensing awareness and anticipation, which can make up for the physical attributes that are less than ideal. Bagley problem was that his arms aren't especially long, and his defensive awareness was very poor.

I guess the Devils are really lucky he moved on and opened up a scholarship. I never realized he was such a poor player.

JNort
05-23-2018, 12:01 AM
I guess the Devils are really lucky he moved on and opened up a scholarship. I never realized he was such a poor player.

Geez dude are you kidding me? You read his post and came away with that? I really hope this was a poor attempt at sarcasm that I just missed.

Bagley was a poor shot blocker and has less than ideal length nor did he show that he was a good defender. Those are what the NBA has concerns with (as well as his shooting). Pointing out a players weaknesses doesn't in anyway translate to them being a "poor player".

elvis14
05-23-2018, 09:16 AM
Geez dude are you kidding me? You read his post and came away with that? I really hope this was a poor attempt at sarcasm that I just missed.

Bagley was a poor shot blocker and has less than ideal length nor did he show that he was a good defender. Those are what the NBA has concerns with (as well as his shooting). Pointing out a players weaknesses doesn't in anyway translate to them being a "poor player".

James Harden is about to win the NBA's MVP award for this year. He's amazing on the offensive end of the floor and awful on the defensive end. Pointing out that Bags is awful on the defensive end (sorry he really was just awful) doesn't mean he's not a good player and can't succeed. At the same time, Bagley is very young and I expect him to grow into being a good defender. His quickness off the ground will serve him well on both ends of the floor one day.

JNort
05-23-2018, 10:24 AM
James Harden is about to win the NBA's MVP award for this year. He's amazing on the offensive end of the floor and awful on the defensive end. Pointing out that Bags is awful on the defensive end (sorry he really was just awful) doesn't mean he's not a good player and can't succeed. At the same time, Bagley is very young and I expect him to grow into being a good defender. His quickness off the ground will serve him well on both ends of the floor one day.

Exactly! Not sure what the other guy was thinking.

kako
05-23-2018, 02:13 PM
The Athletic (paid subscription) came out with yet another mock draft, but this one is a consensus mock from their 13 writers:

No. 28: Golden State Warriors
Grayson Allen, G/F, Duke

I donít think the Warriors boil enough blood across the league. So why not pair the most hated college player with the self-proclaimed Super Villains? But from a hoops standpoint, it actually makes sense. It wonít be a big here. Watch this Rockets series. The Warriors have way too many centers clogging their bench. They are turning this roster over this summer and plan to infuse more young, rangy wings. Allen is that. ó Anthony Slater (@anthonyvslater)

https://theathletic.com/357242/2018/05/23/the-athletics-nba-mock-draft-13-writers-30-picks/

Slater writes Athletic columns on the Warriors. This may work, and it would be great to see Allen and Cook on the same team again. But I think a big like Moe Wagner would be better for GSW. They will drop Zaza Pachulia and probably JaVale McGee. If they cannot sign Kevon Looney, they will still be looking for a starting center. Wagner could compete for that, and he can hit 3s. Young, rangy wings are a dime a dozen.

AtlDuke72
05-23-2018, 05:04 PM
Geez dude are you kidding me? You read his post and came away with that? I really hope this was a poor attempt at sarcasm that I just missed.

Bagley was a poor shot blocker and has less than ideal length nor did he show that he was a good defender. Those are what the NBA has concerns with (as well as his shooting). Pointing out a players weaknesses doesn't in anyway translate to them being a "poor player".

Poor attenpt at sarcasm. Your sarcasm detector is not working well. Any other deficits in Bagleys game that the rest of us need to know about ?

Furniture
05-23-2018, 05:56 PM
The Athletic (paid subscription) came out with yet another mock draft, but this one is a consensus mock from their 13 writers:

No. 28: Golden State Warriors
Grayson Allen, G/F, Duke

I donít think the Warriors boil enough blood across the league. So why not pair the most hated college player with the self-proclaimed Super Villains? But from a hoops standpoint, it actually makes sense. It wonít be a big here. Watch this Rockets series. The Warriors have way too many centers clogging their bench. They are turning this roster over this summer and plan to infuse more young, rangy wings. Allen is that. ó Anthony Slater (@anthonyvslater)

https://theathletic.com/357242/2018/05/23/the-athletics-nba-mock-draft-13-writers-30-picks/

Slater writes Athletic columns on the Warriors. This may work, and it would be great to see Allen and Cook on the same team again. But I think a big like Moe Wagner would be better for GSW. They will drop Zaza Pachulia and probably JaVale McGee. If they cannot sign Kevon Looney, they will still be looking for a starting center. Wagner could compete for that, and he can hit 3s. Young, rangy wings are a dime a dozen.

Love it!!!

superdave
05-24-2018, 08:53 AM
I just read a long Espn Insider article about how Doncic may slip in the draft: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23581610/is-luka-doncic-top-three-2018-nba-draft-pick

He's been the darling for the past year and sounds like he has the game to fit with most any team. So why this hand wringing? Is this Espn needing content or GM's low-balling Doncic hoping he will fall?

I think if I were a GM in the top 5, I would trade down this year. Could Phoenix get the #12 and #13 from the Clippers plus a future 1st rounder? Would the Sixers throw Fultz in a deal to move up to #1?

fraggler
05-24-2018, 09:24 AM
I just read a long Espn Insider article about how Doncic may slip in the draft: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23581610/is-luka-doncic-top-three-2018-nba-draft-pick

He's been the darling for the past year and sounds like he has the game to fit with most any team. So why this hand wringing? Is this Espn needing content or GM's low-balling Doncic hoping he will fall?

I think if I were a GM in the top 5, I would trade down this year. Could Phoenix get the #12 and #13 from the Clippers plus a future 1st rounder? Would the Sixers throw Fultz in a deal to move up to #1?

Yeah, this draft has a lot of possibly solid players, but the potential stars all have pretty big questions about them at this point. I honestly don't know how well Doncic will do when facing NBA athletes every game, but he certainly knows how to play. He would be perfect for the Kings since they have athletes at the other positions and really don't need another big man. They need more playmakers. This seems like a perfect fit when the best available talent is also a position of need, but they are the Kings.

I honestly just want all of our guys to go to organizations that will help them develop - I don't really see any other players raising any excitement for me regardless of where they end up (unless a team like the Celtics pulls off some lopsided trade again). I don't want to see another Jahlil. I still believe if he had gone to a better organization and given a chance to develop, he could have had a very different career.

DukieInBrasil
05-24-2018, 02:51 PM
Yeah, this draft has a lot of possibly solid players, but the potential stars all have pretty big questions about them at this point. I honestly don't know how well Doncic will do when facing NBA athletes every game, but he certainly knows how to play. He would be perfect for the Kings since they have athletes at the other positions and really don't need another big man. They need more playmakers. This seems like a perfect fit when the best available talent is also a position of need, but they are the Kings.

I honestly just want all of our guys to go to organizations that will help them develop - I don't really see any other players raising any excitement for me regardless of where they end up (unless a team like the Celtics pulls off some lopsided trade again). I don't want to see another Jahlil. I still believe if he had gone to a better organization and given a chance to develop, he could have had a very different career.

"I'm not dead yet!" - Monty Python. Although Jahlil's career has been severely harmed, it's not over yet. If he can't get it going this coming year, then maybe it'll be time for him to try European leagues or something, but he's still the guy who average 17+ ppg as a rookie, and i bet somebody will be willing to give me a chance. Everybody knows he needs to improve on D, and he needs to prove that he can get fired up for rebounds. If he can add a reliable outside jumper, especially a 3pt shot, then he'll be able to stay in the NBA for a while.

907bluedevils
05-24-2018, 02:53 PM
Not really a surprise, but Maye withdrew today. UNC could give us some issues with Maye, Johnson, Williams, Little.

dukelifer
05-24-2018, 03:53 PM
Not really a surprise, but Maye withdrew today. UNC could give us some issues with Maye, Johnson, Williams, Little.

UNC will be very good. Little is as good as any Freshman in the country and that is a ton of experience coming back. Of course Little is one and done and UNC will lose a lot after next year.

flyingdutchdevil
05-24-2018, 04:38 PM
UNC will be very good. Little is as good as any Freshman in the country and that is a ton of experience coming back. Of course Little is one and done and UNC will lose a lot after next year.

Iíve been told UNC was not going to be good for 4 years in a row now. Why stop now?

CDu
05-24-2018, 05:24 PM
Iíve been told UNC was not going to be good for 4 years in a row now. Why stop now?

If Little is eligible, UNC will be pretty good. But probably not as good as last year. And last year they were an 11 loss team. Veterans matter, especially at UNC. That has been the recurring theme the previous four years. UNC will go from being a VERY old team last year to being only somewhat old. They wonít have a PG either, as their two PGs left. Their best returning player is not capable of creating his own shot. Like, at all. And freshmen wings havenít typically been great as freshmen at UNC. That matters, as their top talent is a freshman wing.

Truth&Justise
05-24-2018, 06:40 PM
If Little is eligible, UNC will be pretty good. But probably not as good as last year. And last year they were an 11 loss team. Veterans matter, especially at UNC. That has been the recurring theme the previous four years. UNC will go from being a VERY old team last year to being only somewhat old. They wonít have a PG either, as their two PGs left. Their best returning player is not capable of creating his own shot. Like, at all. And freshmen wings havenít typically been great as freshmen at UNC. That matters, as their top talent is a freshman wing.

Pardon me if I've missed something, but is his eligibility in question?

Troublemaker
05-24-2018, 06:58 PM
Pardon me if I've missed something, but is his eligibility in question?

He's very likely eligible but he's considered to be "Player 12" in the FBI indictment.

You can read about it here: https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2017/10/4/16426928/nassir-little-recruiting-north-carolina-player-12-arizona-miami

CDu
05-24-2018, 07:00 PM
Pardon me if I've missed something, but is his eligibility in question?

There are rumors that Little is one of the players noted in the FBI investigation. He probably will be eligible, but not 100% guaranteed. I just included the caveat on the offchance something comes of it, but it is probably unlikely.

dukelifer
05-24-2018, 07:10 PM
If Little is eligible, UNC will be pretty good. But probably not as good as last year. And last year they were an 11 loss team. Veterans matter, especially at UNC. That has been the recurring theme the previous four years. UNC will go from being a VERY old team last year to being only somewhat old. They wonít have a PG either, as their two PGs left. Their best returning player is not capable of creating his own shot. Like, at all. And freshmen wings havenít typically been great as freshmen at UNC. That matters, as their top talent is a freshman wing.

Yes they have some questions at pt guard but White will figure it out. I agree Chemistry will be an issue but there is talent and more importantly shooting on that team. Defensively- they are not as good as Pinson was good as a senior. But no question- they will be in the top three. Whiteís growth is key.

CDu
05-24-2018, 07:35 PM
Yes they have some questions at pt guard but White will figure it out. I agree Chemistry will be an issue but there is talent and more importantly shooting on that team. Defensively- they are not as good as Pinson was good as a senior. But no question- they will be in the top three. Whiteís growth is key.

If White (or someone) can learn to play PG they could be quite good. Maye, Johnson, Williams, and White can all shoot. But most of those guys (basically all of them but White) are catch-and-shoot types. So if the PG spot doesnít get figured out, there could be lots of ups and downs. I am not sure White will be a ready PG from day one. He is in that territory for UNC that isnít always ready (see Felton last year). And he isnít a natural PG to begin with (again, see Felton).

Little should be terrific, but wings under Williams have historically underperformed early in their careers. It just isnít a system that maximizes wings - takes time for them to find their way in his system, especially when the PG play isnít strong.

I havenít looked closely enough at the schedules to see how rough or easy their ACC road is, but I would expect another 10-loss season again unless their road is MUCH easier.

UrinalCake
05-24-2018, 08:13 PM
There are rumors that Little is one of the players noted in the FBI investigation. He probably will be eligible, but not 100% guaranteed. I just included the caveat on the offchance something comes of it, but it is probably unlikely.

I believe that his name was removed from later versions of the indictments. The original allegations stemmed from his recruitment by Miami or possibly one other school that I canít remember, but the assistant coach then claimed he kept the money for himself and never gave it to the players or their families. He fell into the CHeats lap during all of the turmoil, probably because he knew they are the experts in escaping punishment.

Itís still possible that something comes of this, but it would require new information. And obviously the NCAA doesnít want to touch the CHeats, they could literally murder someone and the NCAA wouldnít care.

CDu
05-24-2018, 08:40 PM
I believe that his name was removed from later versions of the indictments. The original allegations stemmed from his recruitment by Miami or possibly one other school that I canít remember, but the assistant coach then claimed he kept the money for himself and never gave it to the players or their families. He fell into the CHeats lap during all of the turmoil, probably because he knew they are the experts in escaping punishment.

Itís still possible that something comes of this, but it would require new information. And obviously the NCAA doesnít want to touch the CHeats, they could literally murder someone and the NCAA wouldnít care.

Like I said, it is unlikely. Just was leaving the door open because he was at least linked. It likely wonít go any further. But you never know.

devildeac
05-25-2018, 12:04 AM
He's very likely eligible but he's considered to be "Player 12" in the FBI indictment.

You can read about it here: https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2017/10/4/16426928/nassir-little-recruiting-north-carolina-player-12-arizona-miami

"He's eligible if we say he's eligible. We don't need no @#$%ing ncaa to decide that."

RW and BC

:mad:

oakvillebluedevil
05-25-2018, 06:28 AM
Yeah, this draft has a lot of possibly solid players, but the potential stars all have pretty big questions about them at this point. I honestly don't know how well Doncic will do when facing NBA athletes every game, but he certainly knows how to play. He would be perfect for the Kings since they have athletes at the other positions and really don't need another big man. They need more playmakers. This seems like a perfect fit when the best available talent is also a position of need, but they are the Kings.

I honestly just want all of our guys to go to organizations that will help them develop - I don't really see any other players raising any excitement for me regardless of where they end up (unless a team like the Celtics pulls off some lopsided trade again). I don't want to see another Jahlil. I still believe if he had gone to a better organization and given a chance to develop, he could have had a very different career.

I agree w/ the sentiment around development, and I loved that 2015 team as much as the next person, but I really have to disagree w/ the Jahlil assessment.

I really feel for what must have been a super tough situation for him, but being brutally honest, Jahlil has precisely one NBA-level skill, post scoring. It's a skill that when used in high volume isn't efficient in and of itself, and then also makes every other position on the floor less efficient b/c it gums up the offense and limits spacing.

Then, on the other end, he can't guard anyone outside and provides no deterrence down low.

This is a league where two-time all-star and all NBA defensive player Roy Hibbert, who had a defensive rule loosely named for him because he was so effective, fell out of the league in part because of how offenses have evolved. In the highest level of the playoffs even the highest level centers can be tough to play due to matchup issues. Outside of a few freaks (Davis, Embiid, Gobert, Towns, Porzingis, maybe Capela), relying on true centers in highest-leverage NBA minutes is almost untenable now.

Jah came of age in a really tough time for centers more than anything. Sure he had a couple other centers on the roster in Philly, but he couldn't beat out Amir Johnson (old and not very good), Richuan Holmes (young and very limited), and Nerlens Noel (hasn't gotten off the bench for Dallas) for PT. Compared to players like Quinn and Seth who have grinded out roles through brutal D-league stretches, it's tough to put all (or even most) of the blame on the Sixers here.

That said, I'm rooting really hard for Jah, will always be grateful for all he's done for the university, and sincerely hope he takes the steps needed to secure a successful career.

JNort
05-25-2018, 09:34 PM
Yeah, this draft has a lot of possibly solid players, but the potential stars all have pretty big questions about them at this point. I honestly don't know how well Doncic will do when facing NBA athletes every game, but he certainly knows how to play. He would be perfect for the Kings since they have athletes at the other positions and really don't need another big man. They need more playmakers. This seems like a perfect fit when the best available talent is also a position of need, but they are the Kings.

I honestly just want all of our guys to go to organizations that will help them develop - I don't really see any other players raising any excitement for me regardless of where they end up (unless a team like the Celtics pulls off some lopsided trade again). I don't want to see another Jahlil. I still believe if he had gone to a better organization and given a chance to develop, he could have had a very different career.

Yeah I don't see the great players in this draft... If I didn't have the number 1 pick (which I would use on Doncic) I would just trade out of this draft for a 1st in next years and see if I can also get a 2nd or somthing thrown in. Perhaps talk with the Cavs on getting next years 1st plus this year's and nexts 2nd rounders. Heck maybe even take Nance.

List of players I like:

Doncic (whom I love but don't think he will ever be your go to guy)

Sexton (questions on his shot for me)

That might be it, the rest are all unimportant imo or are role players. I think many of these bigs will be just fine but I don't want "just fine" when I'm picking in the top 5.

JasonEvans
05-26-2018, 02:25 PM
Yeah I don't see the great players in this draft... If I didn't have the number 1 pick (which I would use on Doncic) I would just trade out of this draft for a 1st in next years and see if I can also get a 2nd or somthing thrown in.

This really flies in the face of conventional wisdom, which is that this year's draft in loaded, especially the first 8 or so picks, and next year seems relatively weak.

Of course, conventional wisdom never picks Donovan Mitchell or Kyle Kuzma in the top 5 picks of a draft. Conventional wisdom put Draymond in the 2nd round and had Steph and Klay on the tail end of the lottery. Conventional wisdom thinks Lonzo Ball is a no brainer ahead of Jayson Tatum.

But, the bottom line is that I doubt you see teams trading out of this year's lottery to get into next year's lottery. I really doubt you will see prospects as good as Carter, Sexton, and Young available in the back half of next year's lottery.

Nugget
05-26-2018, 05:25 PM
There are rumors that Little is one of the players noted in the FBI investigation. He probably will be eligible, but not 100% guaranteed. I just included the caveat on the offchance something comes of it, but it is probably unlikely.

Isn't the deal with Little that the allegation is that the middleman who was (allegedly) supposed to deliver $$ to Little and/or his family instead pocketed the money? That's why charges against him were dismissed -- no delivery of cash/no crime? Thus, the implication being that (at most) Little and/or his family members may have agreed to take $$ to go to Miami. But, in the absence of actual payment there would seem to be no completed violation of NCAA eligibility rules.

JNort
05-26-2018, 08:03 PM
This really flies in the face of conventional wisdom, which is that this year's draft in loaded, especially the first 8 or so picks, and next year seems relatively weak.

Of course, conventional wisdom never picks Donovan Mitchell or Kyle Kuzma in the top 5 picks of a draft. Conventional wisdom put Draymond in the 2nd round and had Steph and Klay on the tail end of the lottery. Conventional wisdom thinks Lonzo Ball is a no brainer ahead of Jayson Tatum.

But, the bottom line is that I doubt you see teams trading out of this year's lottery to get into next year's lottery. I really doubt you will see prospects as good as Carter, Sexton, and Young available in the back half of next year's lottery.

I guess it depends. This year's draft class will have more players in the NBA 10 years from but I see at max 3 potential all stars. Next years I see fewer overall guys sticking around but more potential all stars.

This draft just feel so weak because it's big man heavy and none of these bigs are gonna be stars imo except for potentially Ayton and I heavily doubt him too. I would rather trust in next years forwards and guards.

dukelifer
05-27-2018, 09:08 AM
I guess it depends. This year's draft class will have more players in the NBA 10 years from but I see at max 3 potential all stars. Next years I see fewer overall guys sticking around but more potential all stars.

This draft just feel so weak because it's big man heavy and none of these bigs are gonna be stars imo except for potentially Ayton and I heavily doubt him too. I would rather trust in next years forwards and guards.
The guards in next yearís draft have to be very good three point shooters to have a chance to be great. Barrett is considered the best of his class and the 3 is a work in progress. Tall wings have to be able to shoot and create. Reddish may have the best skill set- but he has to learn to play with Barrettís competiveness. Tatum is type of player that has all the qualities and skill sets that teams are looking for. He just needs some muscle and time.

UrinalCake
05-27-2018, 09:13 AM
I guess it depends. This year's draft class will have more players in the NBA 10 years from but I see at max 3 potential all stars. Next years I see fewer overall guys sticking around but more potential all stars.

Honest question here - what sort of criteria do you use to determine if a player is going to be a future all star? I ask because I honestly am pretty terrible at predicting future NBA success. I thought Kyle Singler was going to be a solid player and that Gerald Henderson would be a bust. I didn't think Tatum's game would translate to the NBA. Looking at this year's class I think Jaren Jackson is going to be a bust and that Bagley will have a better career than Ayton. But it's so hard to tell.

sagegrouse
05-27-2018, 09:17 AM
Honest question here - what sort of criteria do you use to determine if a player is going to be a future all star? I ask because I honestly am pretty terrible at predicting future NBA success. I thought Kyle Singler was going to be a solid player and that Gerald Henderson would be a bust. I didn't think Tatum's game would translate to the NBA. Looking at this year's class I think Jaren Jackson is going to be a bust and that Bagley will have a better career than Ayton. But it's so hard to tell.

Bagley's a bit of a freak, and ability to get off the floor before anyone is a really valuable gift. He could have a very high ceiling.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-27-2018, 09:34 AM
Honest question here - what sort of criteria do you use to determine if a player is going to be a future all star? I ask because I honestly am pretty terrible at predicting future NBA success. I thought Kyle Singler was going to be a solid player and that Gerald Henderson would be a bust. I didn't think Tatum's game would translate to the NBA. Looking at this year's class I think Jaren Jackson is going to be a bust and that Bagley will have a better career than Ayton. But it's so hard to tell.

I imagine everyone has a different criteria. The three players I saw as can't miss Duke alums who would make big NBA waves were Kyrie, Tatum, and... Jahlil. Two out of three ain't bad I guess. Unless you are an NBA GM, in which case the miss can lose you your job.

Somewhere I posted that GMs that passed on Tatum would regret it. I think so far, that's accurate. I am still baffled by Jah's spiral and have hope he will get a shot at redemption.

UrinalCake
05-27-2018, 09:44 AM
I remember during the pro day we had (the one where Tatum hurt his ankle) somebody tweeted that he thought Tatum could one day lead the NBA in scoring. I thought at the time that that was preposterous, heíd maybe be able to carve out a role and average 10-14 points but he didnít have elite athleticism and was too dependent on high difficulty long-range two point jumpers. Now the idea seems possible.

And yeah, I thought Jahlil would have a role like Andrew Bynum or Greg Monroe, a throwback who could take advantage of other teams not having true big men. Maybe in the right situation he could have found a role. But I think his lack of defense has held him back moreso than his offensive style.

JNort
05-27-2018, 10:27 AM
I remember during the pro day we had (the one where Tatum hurt his ankle) somebody tweeted that he thought Tatum could one day lead the NBA in scoring. I thought at the time that that was preposterous, heíd maybe be able to carve out a role and average 10-14 points but he didnít have elite athleticism and was too dependent on high difficulty long-range two point jumpers. Now the idea seems possible.

And yeah, I thought Jahlil would have a role like Andrew Bynum or Greg Monroe, a throwback who could take advantage of other teams not having true big men. Maybe in the right situation he could have found a role. But I think his lack of defense has held him back moreso than his offensive style.

Jah has got to be one of the most perplexing players ever right? 18 and 7 as a rookie while shooting over 50% and respectable at the free throw line and now he is struggling to even be on a roster. I know post scoring has gone by the way side but it can still be useful in today's game. His defense is poor but we've seen plenty of poor defenders hang around and get big minutes.

kshepinthehouse
05-27-2018, 10:30 AM
It wonít be long til every player on the court is around 6 foot 8, can handle the ball, play defense, and shoot 3s.

CDu
05-27-2018, 10:40 AM
Jah has got to be one of the most perplexing players ever right? 18 and 7 as a rookie while shooting over 50% and respectable at the free throw line and now he is struggling to even be on a roster. I know post scoring has gone by the way side but it can still be useful in today's game. His defense is poor but we've seen plenty of poor defenders hang around and get big minutes.

He has actually gotten progressively better each year than he was as a rookie. The problem is that his rookie year wasnít actually good. 7 rebounds per 30 minutes is really poor for a center. And while 17.5 ppg sounds okay, his TS% was below average too. He has been a net negative on the court every year, just progressively less negative each year.

Last year, he was almost a breakeven player in limited minutes as a reserve. I think he will be able to carve out a role as a second unit scorer in the 15 mpg range. But unless he has drastic improvements in athleticism, defense, and/or rebounding, it is hard to see him being a successful starter in the league.

jimsumner
05-27-2018, 11:09 AM
Going into his senior year of high school, the biggest question mark surrounding Jayson Tatum's game was his ability to make 3s.

FWIW.

CDu
05-27-2018, 12:19 PM
Going into his senior year of high school, the biggest question mark surrounding Jayson Tatum's game was his ability to make 3s.

FWIW.

He was also not considered uber-athletic. More smooth than explosive. That seemed not to be an issue at Duke though.

duke74
05-27-2018, 12:40 PM
He was also not considered uber-athletic. More smooth than explosive. That seemed not to be an issue at Duke though.

Or apparently in the League.

fraggler
05-27-2018, 12:45 PM
He has actually gotten progressively better each year than he was as a rookie. The problem is that his rookie year wasnít actually good. 7 rebounds per 30 minutes is really poor for a center. And while 17.5 ppg sounds okay, his TS% was below average too. He has been a net negative on the court every year, just progressively less negative each year.

Last year, he was almost a breakeven player in limited minutes as a reserve. I think he will be able to carve out a role as a second unit scorer in the 15 mpg range. But unless he has drastic improvements in athleticism, defense, and/or rebounding, it is hard to see him being a successful starter in the league.

I want to believe that had he started with a better organization that wasn't actively trying to sabotage themselves, that he could have progressed better. He is still only 22. Hopefully a team with decent coaching can give him another shot and better manage his strengths and weaknesses.

CDu
05-27-2018, 01:04 PM
I want to believe that had he started with a better organization that wasn't actively trying to sabotage themselves, that he could have progressed better. He is still only 22. Hopefully a team with decent coaching can give him another shot and better manage his strengths and weaknesses.

Definitely possible. Although it is probably fair to point out that the 76ers didnít seem to screw up the development of Embiid or Simmons, who both have even overcome injuries to become stars in the league. So I suspect the responsibility was more on Okafor.

Still, as you say, he is still fairly young. And he has progressed somewhat each year, albeit in a ďless badĒ sort of way. So he could still become a useful pro at some point. Maybe seeing Philly succeed without him will provide the motivation he needs.