2020 Duke men's basketball recruiting

[superdave]

Scroll down. He called Duke for both.

And in the case of Roach, he was the only predictor to get it right: https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Jeremy-Roach-at-Paul-VI-Catholic-184544/CurrentExpertPredictions/

He picked Jalen Johnson to Duke and BJ Boston to UK within a minute of each other. Good intel.

[NSDukeFan]

I hope he uses his powers for good.

Like getting more recruits to Duke?

[JasonEvans]

24th ranked MarJon Beauchamp skipping college.

https://apple.news/AmJ3b4dZETJ-1_xIrHR22Sw

He is from Arizona and was mostly looking at Pac 12 schools.

[Pghdukie]

Fletcher to Kentucky ! Cal putting together a pretty good class.

[kAzE]

For sure since Slater has Walker Kessler to Duke, too.

Slater's 2020 predictions (12/12 so far) (https://247sports.com/User/Andrew%20Slater/Predictions/?PlayerInstitution.PrimaryPlayerSport.Sport=Basket ball&PlayerInstitution.PrimaryPlayerSport.Recruitment.Y ear=2020)

It says he's now 13/13. Pretty good. There's also another guy, Brian Snow, whose predictions are only visible to VIP subscribers. He is 19 for 19 in this class so far . . . and his all-time accuracy is an insane 92.95%. Anybody know his prediction for Ziaire?

https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Ziaire-Williams-at-Sierra-Canyon-239466/CurrentExpertPredictions/

[richardjackson199]

It says he's now 13/13. Pretty good. There's also another guy, Brian Snow, whose predictions are only visible to VIP subscribers. He is 19 for 19 in this class so far . . . and his all-time accuracy is an insane 92.95%. Anybody know his prediction for Ziaire?

https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Ziaire-Williams-at-Sierra-Canyon-239466/CurrentExpertPredictions/

Stanford currently, just from doing the math of the known picks. But I think that pick was made 6/13/18. I like a pick from Slater on 8/1/19 for us.

[budwom]

It says he's now 13/13. Pretty good. There's also another guy, Brian Snow, whose predictions are only visible to VIP subscribers. He is 19 for 19 in this class so far . . . and his all-time accuracy is an insane 92.95%. Anybody know his prediction for Ziaire?

https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Ziaire-Williams-at-Sierra-Canyon-239466/CurrentExpertPredictions/

Yes, you and Slater can enjoy watching Bryan Antoine in the backcourt for Duke this year.

https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Bryan-Antoine-at-Ranney-School-159571/CurrentExpertPredictions/

[Troublemaker]

Yes, you and Slater can enjoy watching Bryan Antoine in the backcourt for Duke this year.

https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Bryan-Antoine-at-Ranney-School-159571/CurrentExpertPredictions/

A guy doesn't have to bat 1.000 to be generally a good source of information or predictor.

[budwom]

A guy doesn't have to bat 1.000 to be generally a good source of information or predictor.

I think that's true, but I think the Crystal Ball situation is more nuanced than that....to be clear, I'm a long time Devils Den subscriber, and I think there is a lot of good recruiting info, so I do recommend it heartily.

However, I think there is a tendency by some to overly revere certain individuals, more than facts justify. The way I see things working, word goes out that Duke is recruiting/offering some guy, and some picks come in.
Often the flow of information comes from several, if not numerous sources. There gets to be a general feeling of positivity about a certain recruit, and the Crystal Ball picks begin to flow, definitely something of a (call it what you want) collective wisdom or herd mentality.

So last year everyone piled on the Antoine to Duke bandwagon....this year almost everyone was on the BJ Boston to Duke bandwagon, then word got out Duke was rethinking Boston, and defections began.
My point being that guys make picks and change their picks all the time...often changing to the correct choice very late in the process....When guys change their pick late in the process (e.g. Boston not coming to Duke, Antoine not coming to Duke, Isaiah Stewart, Bacot, Cunningham, etc) I think it distorts the batting average. There are many more examples of this.

My conclusion is that I feel I get pretty solid info over at the TDD and end up with pretty solid (collective) info, but I do not find the predictive powers of any one individual to be especially impressive...

Right now a lot of guys seem to be on the Steward, Ziaire Williams, Mark Williams and Kessler bandwagon to Duke...let's see how that goes and who changes his pick as time goes on.

[Indoor66]

Thank God for nuance.

[kAzE]

I think that's true, but I think the Crystal Ball situation is more nuanced than that...to be clear, I'm a long time Devils Den subscriber, and I think there is a lot of good recruiting info, so I do recommend it heartily.

However, I think there is a tendency by some to overly revere certain individuals, more than facts justify.

Nah . . . not really. I don't keep up enough with this stuff to have an opinion on anyone. However, guy goes 19 for 19 and has a lifetime batting average of 93%, he deserves some props.

[Pghdukie]

No one can predict what is going thru an 18yr olds mind. Not even the 18 yr old.

[Troublemaker]

I think that's true, but I think the Crystal Ball situation is more nuanced than that...to be clear, I'm a long time Devils Den subscriber, and I think there is a lot of good recruiting info, so I do recommend it heartily.

However, I think there is a tendency by some to overly revere certain individuals, more than facts justify. The way I see things working, word goes out that Duke is recruiting/offering some guy, and some picks come in.
Often the flow of information comes from several, if not numerous sources. There gets to be a general feeling of positivity about a certain recruit, and the Crystal Ball picks begin to flow, definitely something of a (call it what you want) collective wisdom or herd mentality.

So last year everyone piled on the Antoine to Duke bandwagon...this year almost everyone was on the BJ Boston to Duke bandwagon, then word got out Duke was rethinking Boston, and defections began.
My point being that guys make picks and change their picks all the time...often changing to the correct choice very late in the process...When guys change their pick late in the process (e.g. Boston not coming to Duke, Antoine not coming to Duke, Isaiah Stewart, Bacot, Cunningham, etc) I think it distorts the batting average. There are many more examples of this.

My conclusion is that I feel I get pretty solid info over at the TDD and end up with pretty solid (collective) info, but I do not find the predictive powers of any one individual to be especially impressive...

Right now a lot of guys seem to be on the Steward, Ziaire Williams, Mark Williams and Kessler bandwagon to Duke...let's see how that goes and who changes his pick as time goes on.

Good points, many of which I agree with.

But Slater is generally regarded as one of the good ones. He is an "originator" in that he makes picks earlier and more frequently than anyone else, and so he's basically the opposite of the bandwagonners.

I follow recruiting pretty closely, and I like to pay attention to Slater early and Evan Daniels late.

[budwom]

Good points, many of which I agree with.

But Slater is generally regarded as one of the good ones. He is an "originator" in that he makes picks earlier and more frequently than anyone else, and so he's basically the opposite of the bandwagonners.

I follow recruiting pretty closely, and I like to pay attention to Slater early and Evan Daniels late.

yes, I agree, he is among the better ones...

[frb]

more transfer news....

Scottie Barnes is leaving University School (where V Carey attended) for Monteverde Academy.

I don't think this has any effect on his recruitment.

[DavidBenAkiva]

A couple of notes on official visits for this fall.

Henry Coleman will be on campus the weekend of August 31st (courtesy of Ball Durham)
Mark Williams will be on campus November 1st (247Sports)

Walker Kessler has also stated that he will take an official visit to Duke this fall, although I do not see a date set as of yet. Kessler has previously stated his intent to commit before the end of the year.
I assume we will hear more soon about other top Duke targets, including Zaire Williams and DJ Steward.

[Tazman10]

Good points, many of which I agree with.

But Slater is generally regarded as one of the good ones. He is an "originator" in that he makes picks earlier and more frequently than anyone else, and so he's basically the opposite of the bandwagonners.

I follow recruiting pretty closely, and I like to pay attention to Slater early and Evan Daniels late.

If you pick school A and later you pick school B and the player picks school B, you should not be considered 1 for 1 but 0 for 1. Maybe if you picked school A in June then changed to school B in July and the player picked school B is September, then ok 1 for 1. But if you picked school A in June and then School B in August and the player picked school B in August, IMO, you should be 0 for 1. So 13 for 13 and 19 for 19 is highly questionable.

[MarkD83]

If you pick school A and later you pick school B and the player picks school B, you should not be considered 1 for 1 but 0 for 1. Maybe if you picked school A in June then changed to school B in July and the player picked school B is September, then ok 1 for 1. But if you picked school A in June and then School B in August and the player picked school B in August, IMO, you should be 0 for 1. So 13 for 13 and 19 for 19 is highly questionable.

Or should you be 1 for 2

[roywhite]

more transfer news...

Scottie Barnes is leaving University School (where V Carey attended) for Monteverde Academy.

I don't think this has any effect on his recruitment.

Montverde vs Sierra Canyon HS of CA (Brandon Boston, Zaire Williams, Bronnie James, DeWayne Wade's son, and others) would be an interesting matchup.

[DukieTiger]

If you pick school A and later you pick school B and the player picks school B, you should not be considered 1 for 1 but 0 for 1. Maybe if you picked school A in June then changed to school B in July and the player picked school B is September, then ok 1 for 1. But if you picked school A in June and then School B in August and the player picked school B in August, IMO, you should be 0 for 1. So 13 for 13 and 19 for 19 is highly questionable.

This presupposes that kids don’t change their minds for a variety of reasons, or that sources don’t pick up new info, even at the last second. I’d agree with your point if the picker in question was a follower, but we’re talking about someone who is often first to make a certain pick.

Also, following your own examples, I’ll offer my own fuzzy memory to say that Slater’s picks are more like the June - September scenario. Except sprinkle in some June of 2018 picks that get changed August of 2019 and that’s more representative of Slater’s pick style.

Full disclosure, I’ve been following him via various means for the better part of a decade, so I might be biased. :)

[Skitzle]

If you pick school A and later you pick school B and the player picks school B, you should not be considered 1 for 1 but 0 for 1. Maybe if you picked school A in June then changed to school B in July and the player picked school B is September, then ok 1 for 1. But if you picked school A in June and then School B in August and the player picked school B in August, IMO, you should be 0 for 1. So 13 for 13 and 19 for 19 is highly questionable.

Crystal ball has an average days stat. It gives you the average number of days between predictors final guess and the selection of the student.

The larger the better. It's an imperfect science but you know... We track it cause we love it :)

[budwom]

If you pick school A and later you pick school B and the player picks school B, you should not be considered 1 for 1 but 0 for 1. Maybe if you picked school A in June then changed to school B in July and the player picked school B is September, then ok 1 for 1. But if you picked school A in June and then School B in August and the player picked school B in August, IMO, you should be 0 for 1. So 13 for 13 and 19 for 19 is highly questionable.

yup, that was pretty much my point. 247 has Slater at 75% for his career, FWIW...I agree with Troublemaker that Slater does make picks earlier than most, for which he deserves credit...but when he (and others) change picks late in the game once the writing is on the proverbial wall, it's generous to give him credit.

[Tazman10]

So if I make a call in June for school A and change my mind to school B today and tomorrow the player picks school B I get credit for being correct? I’ll listen to the pick when they bet their house on their pick. I only listen when the kid makes his pick, the rest of the talk is no better than a UNC basketball player with a diploma.

[JasonEvans]

So if I make a call in June for school A and change my mind to school B today and tomorrow the player picks school B I get credit for being correct? I’ll listen to the pick when they bet their house on their pick. I only listen when the kid makes his pick, the rest of the talk is no better than a UNC basketball player with a diploma.

No one is forcing you to pay attention to the Crystal Ball picks. Certainly, there should be some skepticism about them (not least of all because many picks are made by the so-called experts before the kid himself has even made up his mind). But, they tend to be a decent measurement of where kids may be leaning or which school feels like it has a good rapport with a player. It is not perfect and no one has ever claimed it is. But, when one of the more successful pickers selects your school for a highly recruited kid, that's better than if he picked Kentucky, UNC, or Kansas, right?

-Jason "I do like the notion of saying a picker missed if he switches picks... or maybe make it a partial miss or something like that" Evans

[Indoor66]

-Jason "I do like the notion of saying a picker missed if he switches picks... or maybe make it a partial miss or something like that" Evans

There is something to be said for living life as it comes and not getting so far ahead of now...

[Troublemaker]

yup, that was pretty much my point. 247 has Slater at 75% for his career, FWIW...I agree with Troublemaker that Slater does make picks earlier than most, for which he deserves credit...but when he (and others) change picks late in the game once the writing is on the proverbial wall, it's generous to give him credit.


So if I make a call in June for school A and change my mind to school B today and tomorrow the player picks school B I get credit for being correct? I’ll listen to the pick when they bet their house on their pick. I only listen when the kid makes his pick, the rest of the talk is no better than a UNC basketball player with a diploma.

FYI, 247 does keep track of the amount of days between when you made the pick and when the prospect announces. In 247's "All Time Expert Rankings" (https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/AllTimeExpertRankings/) (which is really a top 12), Slater ranks #6 and has a higher "average # of days correct" than anyone above him. He also has made many more picks than anyone else.

Those in the know seem to respect Slater and how many contacts he has in AAU and basketball recruiting. (So, for example, if formerly active DBR posters like Adam Rowe or Mark Watson chimed in, they would certainly praise Slater). His extensive network is why Slater can make so many more picks than anyone else even though that hurts his overall percentage.

Daniels is much more selective in which picks to make and has a much higher percentage. And if Daniels makes a pick late in a recruitment, that kid is almost certainly going to that school he picks.

As I wrote above, Slater early, Daniels late.

[yancem]

FYI, 247 does keep track of the amount of days between when you made the pick and when the prospect announces. In 247's "All Time Expert Rankings" (https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/AllTimeExpertRankings/) (which is really a top 12), Slater ranks #6 and has a higher "average # of days correct" than anyone above him. He also has made many more picks than anyone else.

Those in the know seem to respect Slater and how many contacts he has in AAU and basketball recruiting. (So, for example, if formerly active DBR posters like Adam Rowe or Mark Watson chimed in, they would certainly praise Slater). His extensive network is why Slater can make so many more picks than anyone else even though that hurts his overall percentage.

Daniels is much more selective in which picks to make and has a much higher percentage. And if Daniels makes a pick late in a recruitment, that kid is almost certainly going to that school he picks.

As I wrote above, Slater early, Daniels late.

Not sure whether or not Watson would praise Slater. I believe that there was some bad blood when he left Blue Devil Nation. I don't know all the details but was a member back then and like a lot of people switched to Blue Devil Lair when Slater moved there. I was briefly a member of both sites and I remember some bitterness. All that being said, I think that most people in the industry highly respect Slater's opinions and basketball knowledge. He truly has (or at least had when I had access to his content) a much deeper grasp of the on goings of high school basketball recruiting and better connections that pretty much anyone.

[budwom]

^ yes, some of those relationships were complicated.

[BD80]

Don't know if this has been noted here yet:

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/08/05/evan-mobley-usc-recruiting-2020-class

Supposed #1 player.

His brother Isaiah, a 5* player, is an incoming frosh.

Oh yeah, Enfield hired their dad, Eric, as an assistant coach in March 2018.

From ESPN: "Mobley was hired in March 2018 after spending several years coaching in the Compton Magic grassroots program."

Eric played i00+ games in 3 years in the NBA 20+ years ago. He was listed at 6' 11" but it looks like his sons are each several inches taller.

[JasonEvans]

Don't know if this has been noted here yet:

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/08/05/evan-mobley-usc-recruiting-2020-class

Supposed #1 player.

His brother Isaiah, a 5* player, is an incoming frosh.

Oh yeah, Enfield hired their dad, Eric, as an assistant coach in March 2018.

From ESPN: "Mobley was hired in March 2018 after spending several years coaching in the Compton Magic grassroots program."

Eric played i00+ games in 3 years in the NBA 20+ years ago. He was listed at 6' 11" but it looks like his sons are each several inches taller.

No one else really bothered to recruit Evan. It was a done deal that he would play for his father at USC. I suppose the big question is whether Isaiah Mobley and Onyeka Okongwu (a pair of 5-star big men freshmen) will stick around for 2 years to play with Evan. That would be one heck of a front line. Can USC get or develop get some quality guards to surround them? If so, they could be the class of the Pac 12.

[mph]

If so, they could be the class of the Pac 12.

Which ain’t sayin’ much lately. 😁

[53n206]

Anyone else think it's a little"unfair" to hire an asst. coach and suddenly sign the coach's highly ranked son? Think of recent Ok State hire and past Ks hire (Manning).

[cato]

Anyone else think it's a little"unfair" to hire an asst. coach and suddenly sign the coach's highly ranked son? Think of recent Ok State hire and past Ks hire (Manning).

Me: that’s not fair? Do you know what I am about to say?

My daughter, eye roll implied, but not included: life is not fair.

Exeunt stage left.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Anyone else think it's a little"unfair" to hire an asst. coach and suddenly sign the coach's highly ranked son? Think of recent Ok State hire and past Ks hire (Manning).

It's wildly unfair, done regularly, and difficult to prove the motivation behind (though some of these instances are clearer than others).

[lotusland]

It's wildly unfair, done regularly, and difficult to prove the motivation behind (though some of these instances are clearer than others).

Minor quibble but I don’t think it’s unfair. It’s unseemly but it would only be unfair if the option was only available to a few schools. Any school can hire a player’s parent. Did LSU hire Press Maravich because he was a great coach or because his son was Pistol Pete? There’s no way to either know or to police it. Nowadays if a player is really good, you’re only getting him for one year anyway so the advantage is minimized.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Minor quibble but I don’t think it’s unfair. It’s unseemly but it would only be unfair if the option was only available to a few schools. Any school can hire a player’s parent. Did LSU hire Press Maravich because he was a great coach or because his son was Pistol Pete? There’s no way to either know or to police it. Nowadays if a player is really good, you’re only getting him for one year anyway so the advantage is minimized.

I feel like we had this discussion recently on another thread, but I'll take it...

Where's the line between "come to my school and I will hire your dad," "come to my school, we have a friend with a job waiting for your mom," and "come to my school, here's a sack of money for your parents?"

[TampaDuke]

Talk about helicopter parents. Can you imagine!

In the OAD environment, tough to see how any player is worth it. And it's certainly not a long-term recruiting strategy. Seems more like a gimmick for desperate programs/coaches. One that I'd wager will not meet expectations more often than not.

[BD80]

Minor quibble but I don’t think it’s unfair. It’s unseemly but it would only be unfair if the option was only available to a few schools. Any school can hire a player’s parent. Did LSU hire Press Maravich because he was a great coach or because his son was Pistol Pete? There’s no way to either know or to police it. Nowadays if a player is really good, you’re only getting him for one year anyway so the advantage is minimized.

Unless there are TWO sons.

[AGDukesky]

It’s only unfair if the parent has no qualifications for the position

[JasonEvans]

It’s only unfair if the parent has no qualifications for the position

Eric Mobley played 3 years in the NBA and has been an AAU coach for 11 years. He seems pretty reasonably qualified. I too have no problem with USC doing this. It will be interesting to see how long Eric Mobley sticks around on the staff after his kids are gone.

-Jason "Ed Manning followed Larry Brown from the Kansas to the NBA and was a scout for the Spurs for a while... but even Brown admitted that he initially only hired Ed to get Danny" Evans

[AGDukesky]

Eric Mobley played 3 years in the NBA and has been an AAU coach for 11 years. He seems pretty reasonably qualified. I too have no problem with USC doing this. It will be interesting to see how long Eric Mobley sticks around on the staff after his kids are gone.

-Jason "Ed Manning followed Larry Brown from the Kansas to the NBA and was a scout for the Spurs for a while... but even Brown admitted that he initially only hired Ed to get Danny" Evans

Right, that’s why I have no trouble with Mobley being hired. The whole process is somewhat unseemly but not anything that bothers me enough to get riled up...

[Pghdukie]

"Just Win Baby" is a quote for which way too much emphasis is applied.

Sometimes!

[lotusland]

Unless there are TWO sons.

Good Point. Tre Jones’ father should be assistant coach and Perky Plumlee should be Athletic Director. We got 2 championships from the Plumlees 12 Seasons and hopefully Tre will Pull the Joneses even with a second championship in 3 seasons.

[Truth&Justise]

Good Point. Tre Jones’ father should be assistant coach and Perky Plumlee should be Athletic Director. We got 2 championships from the Plumlees 12 Seasons and hopefully Tre will Pull the Joneses even with a second championship in 3 seasons.

If you're going to count the Plumlees's 12 seasons (despite overlap), then you need to credit them with three championships (despite overlap). So we are averaging one championship for every 4 years a Plumlee plays.

For the Joneses, we are currently averaging one championship for every 2 years played.

[johnb]

Anyone else think it's a little"unfair" to hire an asst. coach and suddenly sign the coach's highly ranked son? Think of recent Ok State hire and past Ks hire (Manning).

This may be a sensitive subject on a Duke board, but it's not unreasonable to wonder about Tom Butters' decision to hire a lightly regarded Michael Krzwkyszhshiki to coach Duke when we all know it was laying the groundwork for his recruitment of Michael Savarino, who is soon to win 4 consecutive national championships for his underprepared grandpa.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This may be a sensitive subject on a Duke board, but it's not unreasonable to wonder about Tom Butters' decision to hire a lightly regarded Michael Krzwkyszhshiki to coach Duke when we all know it was laying the groundwork for his recruitment of Michael Savarino, who is soon to win 4 consecutive national championships for his underprepared grandpa.

Why is no one talking about this?

[johnb]

Not sure where to put this, but the front page has a story about a New Jersey kid named Wheeler who is going to Italy instead of transferring for a senior year at the Patrick School. I was curious. I’d guessed that the school must be a basketball powerhouse, but I’d never heard of it. From the web site, its team has been plenty good. They had a McDonald’s A-A last year, and they once had a backcourt of Kyrie and Kidd-Gilchrist.

Sort of. The Newark diocese closed the school in June 2012. Parents and staff from the closed school reopened it 3 months later at a different location but a similar name. St. Patrick’s to The Patrick School.

When the school closed, their basketball coach, Kevin Boyle, landed at Monteverde.

Kyrie goes back regularly and plays with the guys. It’s one Celtic team he’ll play for. He even renovated the school gym and weight room (well, Nike did it, but Kyrie directed it).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Patrick_High_School_(New_Jersey)
http://highschoolsports.nj.com/news/article/7691143024444796450/kyrie-irving-funds-patrick-school-gym-renovation-once-a-celtic-always-a-celtic/

[CrazyNotCrazie]

This may be a sensitive subject on a Duke board, but it's not unreasonable to wonder about Tom Butters' decision to hire a lightly regarded Michael Krzwkyszhshiki to coach Duke when we all know it was laying the groundwork for his recruitment of Michael Savarino, who is soon to win 4 consecutive national championships for his underprepared grandpa.

And of course, in 1997 Coach K hired Johnny Dawkins as an assistant coach in hopes of someday landing his then 2-year old son Aubrey. Unfortunately, that didn't work out as planned. Or perhaps it goes further back and Coach K recruited Johnny D as a player in 1982 solely in hopes of landing his yet-to-be conceived offspring.

Or perhaps Vic Bubas recruited Jay Buckley as part of the master plan to help his successor, Coach K, land Clay Buckley?

[Indoor66]

Or perhaps Vic Bubas recruited Jay Buckley as part of the master plan to help his successor, Coach K, land Clay Buckley?

An that was with 3 intervening coaches! How prescient.

[JasonEvans]

When the school closed, their basketball coach, Kevin Boyle, landed at Monteverde.

Seeing someone mention Monteverde gives me an excuse to talk about how much I want to see Monteverde play Sierra Canyon this coming year. They both seem to be putting together truly legendary high school teams. It is highly likely that each of these teams has 3-5 lottery picks playing for them this year... maybe more!

Monteverde
Sr: Cade Cunningham - PG, 2020 #2 player
Sr: Scottie Barnes - PF, 2020 #9 player
Sr: Moses Moody - SG, 2020 #24 player
Sr: Day'Ron Sharpe - C, 2020 #34 player
So: Caleb Houstan - PF, 2022 #4 player
So: Dariq Whitehead - SG, 2002 #7 player

Sierra Canyon
Sr: Zaire Williams - SF, 2020 #6 player
Sr: BJ Boston - SF, 2020 #7 player
Sr: Zaire Wade - PG, DWade's son with offers from Miami and Michigan St.
So: Terren Frank - PF, 2020 #43 player
So: Amari Bailey - SG, 2022 #6 player
Fr: Lebron James, Jr.

[MChambers]

And of course, in 1997 Coach K hired Johnny Dawkins as an assistant coach in hopes of someday landing his then 2-year old son Aubrey. Unfortunately, that didn't work out as planned. Or perhaps it goes further back and Coach K recruited Johnny D as a player in 1982 solely in hopes of landing his yet-to-be conceived offspring.

Or perhaps Vic Bubas recruited Jay Buckley as part of the master plan to help his successor, Coach K, land Clay Buckley?

Also in 1982, Coach K recruited Jay Bilas in the hopes of getting favorable coverage on ESPN. Didn't work out too well.

[mattman91]

Seeing someone mention Monteverde gives me an excuse to talk about how much I want to see Monteverde play Sierra Canyon this coming year. They both seem to be putting together truly legendary high school teams. It is highly likely that each of these teams has 3-5 lottery picks playing for them this year... maybe more!

Monteverde
Sr: Cade Cunningham - PG, 2020 #2 player
Sr: Scottie Barnes - PF, 2020 #9 player
Sr: Moses Moody - SG, 2020 #24 player
Sr: Day'Ron Sharpe - C, 2020 #34 player
So: Caleb Houstan - PF, 2022 #4 player
So: Dariq Whitehead - SG, 2002 #7 player

Sierra Canyon
Sr: Zaire Williams - SF, 2020 #6 player
Sr: BJ Boston - SF, 2020 #7 player
Sr: Zaire Wade - PG, DWade's son with offers from Miami and Michigan St.
So: Terren Frank - PF, 2020 #43 player
So: Amari Bailey - SG, 2022 #6 player
Fr: Lebron James, Jr.

I'd love to watch one of those teams play Boston College, or some other bottom feeder ACC team. Not that I think they would beat them, but it would be funny to see a high school team give them a legitimate challenge.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Also in 1982, Coach K recruited Jay Bilas in the hopes of getting favorable coverage on ESPN. Didn't work out too well.

And Mark Alarie in hopes of getting his daughter to play for Duke?

Too soon?

[phaedrus]

I'd love to watch one of those teams play Boston College, or some other bottom feeder ACC team. Not that I think they would beat them, but it would be funny to see a high school team give them a legitimate challenge.

How many games would Sierra Canyon win in an 82-game NBA season, in which the 2018-2019 Blue Devils also participate?

[Please don't respond to this.]

[Orange&BlackSheep]

And Mark Alarie in hopes of getting his daughter to play for Duke?

Too soon?

Msr Alarie's daughter made the EDUCATED choice to play for the Orange&Black!!!!!!

Yours,

Orange&Black Sheep

[mattman91]

How many games would Sierra Canyon win in an 82-game NBA season, in which the 2018-2019 Blue Devils also participate?

[Please don't respond to this.]

Some idiot out there would think they could beat them.

[907bluedevils]

Eric Bossi on rivals mentions Duke has been more recently in contact with 5* and fellow Alaskan Daishen Nix. Sounds like one of the better passers in the nation.

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/three-point-play-n-faly-dante-daishen-nix-j-t-thor

[JasonEvans]

Eric Bossi on rivals mentions Duke has been more recently in contact with 5* and fellow Alaskan Daishen Nix. Sounds like one of the better passers in the nation.

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/three-point-play-n-faly-dante-daishen-nix-j-t-thor

Has there ever been a really good player from Alaska who did not go to Duke?

That said, kinda hard to see us getting another PG when we already have Roach coming in from the 2020 class.

-Jason "It could be wrong, but according to Wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Basketball_players_from_Alaska) the grand total of Alaskan players who played in the NBA is Boozer, Langdon, and Mario Chalmers" Evans

[jimsumner]

Has there ever been a really good player from Alaska who did not go to Duke?


-Jason "It could be wrong, but according to Wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Basketball_players_from_Alaska) the grand total of Alaskan players who played in the NBA is Boozer, Langdon, and Mario Chalmers" Evans

Mario Chambers was pretty darn good.

[accfanfrom1970]

I feel compelled to share, my sister Duke 1976 ended up in Juneau two doors down from Carlos and his family. Couldn’t have been nicer or happier about attending Duke. He came out after games and sat with my kids and asked how they were doing while that enormous bear tattoo memorized them. He was so soft spoken and kind. Duke should own Alaska.

[cato]

Mario Chambers was pretty darn good.

As was Steve Francis.

[frb]

Mario Chambers was pretty darn good.

I think we could have had him but we prioritized Greg Paulus... Paulus turned out to be one of the more frustrating Duke players to follow throughout his career. He left far worse than when he arrived. Chalmers could've been the difference in winning another title.

[frb]

Eric Bossi on rivals mentions Duke has been more recently in contact with 5* and fellow Alaskan Daishen Nix. Sounds like one of the better passers in the nation.

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/three-point-play-n-faly-dante-daishen-nix-j-t-thor

Coach K talks a lot about "positionless basketball"... why couldn't 2 point guards co-exist? From the youtube videos I've seen, Roach can play off the ball well, too. Selling kids on that is probably difficult but K did it with Duhon when he already had JWill.

[Spanarkel]

Mario Chambers was pretty darn good.

Distant relative of Tom Chambers(20+K points/no HoF).

[lotusland]

Distant relative of Tom Chambers(20+K points/no HoF).

Also an early NBA dunk contest champion. There haven’t been many 6’10 dunk champs. Pretty tame by today’s standards tho.

https://youtu.be/q8VXxrN07jY

[jimsumner]

As was Steve Francis.

Mario Chalmers, of course. Insert icon of Homer Simpson slapping his head.

[superdave]

Mario Chambers was pretty darn good.

Mario "Superintendent" Chalmers

[bullettoothtony]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TiptonEdits/status/1160342275320401922?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-25323980661941502815.ampproject.net%2F190730163032 0%2Fframe.html

Ziaire top 7
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBpdJg7WwAUlSv_?format=jpg&name=900x900

[JasonEvans]

Ziaire has 6 teams tied for first and then UNC is #23 on his list. I can live with this.

[DukieTiger]

Ziaire has 6 teams tied for first and then UNC is #23 on his list. I can live with this.

I dunno, he clearly can’t do basic math which concerns me that it might be a sign he’s leaning toward UNC.

[AGDukesky]

I dunno, he clearly can’t do basic math which concerns me that it might be a sign he’s leaning toward UNC.

That whole image screams UNC - listing it first, the pose/smile, all the other school jerseys being “1”. I know nothing else about his recruitment but that picture paints a pretty clear message- at least for whomever put it together...

[kAzE]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TiptonEdits/status/1160342275320401922?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-25323980661941502815.ampproject.net%2F190730163032 0%2Fframe.html

Ziaire top 7
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBpdJg7WwAUlSv_?format=jpg&name=900x900

How come he only looks happy in a Carolina jersey?? :confused:

[plimnko]

How come he only looks happy in a Carolina jersey?? :confused:

thinking about not having to go to class lol

[MChambers]

How come he only looks happy in a Carolina jersey?? :confused:

Maybe he doesn't like going to class?

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

How come he only looks happy in a Carolina jersey?? :confused:
He’s just setting them up for a bigger letdown.

Also, why would he want to wear the #1 jersey from UNC? Past non-student athletes to wear that number include such legends as Melvin Scott, Marcus Ginyard, Dexter Strickland and the incomparable Theo Pinson.

[Tazman10]

I think most people are missing it. UNC is all fun and games, like no classes needed. But in the middle is the picture of Stanford and it is all business, I think they have the lead, all business.

[frb]

Dan McDonald
@DMcDonaldRivals
2020 big man Dylan Cardwell (@Dylanupnext__) let me know he has official visits set for #Vanderbilt (Aug 31st), #UGA (Sept 7th), and #UConn (Oct 5th). He's also planning trips to #Miami and #Tennessee. #Duke has been involved as well.

[frb]

Dan McDonald
@DMcDonaldRivals
2020 big man Dylan Cardwell (@Dylanupnext__) let me know he has official visits set for #Vanderbilt (Aug 31st), #UGA (Sept 7th), and #UConn (Oct 5th). He's also planning trips to #Miami and #Tennessee. #Duke has been involved as well.

would we take a kid like this? Top 150 talent. I wouldn't be against it. We need bigs for 20/21.. and maybe that ranking isn't so accurate. Maybe the staff thinks he's a top 60 talent.

[budwom]

would we take a kid like this? Top 150 talent. I wouldn't be against it. We need bigs for 20/21.. and maybe that ranking isn't so accurate. Maybe the staff thinks he's a top 60 talent.

They are checking out a lot of guys in case they don't get Kessler and Williams, the top choices...

[bigperm13]

Jerry Tipton edits these pictures with lists on IG and it has nothing to do with the players. Matthew Hurt was in one last year and he looked bad in all the jerseys.

[Spanarkel]

Jerry Tipton edits these pictures with lists on IG and it has nothing to do with the players. Matthew Hurt was in one last year and he looked bad in all the jerseys.


The player reaches out to Joseph Tipton, and the edits are done in collaboration between the player and Tipton. There is a non-trivial charge for the service, although a few of the top players get theirs for free.
I am friendly with a four star prospect in the class of 2020 who just committed to a Power6 hoops school and he explained to me how it's done.

[bullettoothtony]

Are we involved with Jalen Green at all? This article from rivals says we are (look in section about Memphis) but I haven't seen anything anywhere else.

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/evans-seven-teams-with-no-2020-commits-that-should-have-a-big-fall

[907bluedevils]

Has there ever been a really good player from Alaska who did not go to Duke?

That said, kinda hard to see us getting another PG when we already have Roach coming in from the 2020 class.

-Jason "It could be wrong, but according to Wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Basketball_players_from_Alaska) the grand total of Alaskan players who played in the NBA is Boozer, Langdon, and Mario Chalmers" Evans

3 out of a total population of about 700k is solid right?

[Troublemaker]

Are we involved with Jalen Green at all? This article from rivals says we are (look in section about Memphis) but I haven't seen anything anywhere else.

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/evans-seven-teams-with-no-2020-commits-that-should-have-a-big-fall

Nope. With a player that high-profile, we would know. He'd have a scholarship offer, for example, at the very least.

[bullettoothtony]

Banchero won't reclassify

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aseaofblue.com/platform/amp/2019/8/13/20804317/kentucky-wildcats-news-paolo-banchero-duke-blue-devils-kansas-jayhawks

[JasonEvans]

Banchero won't reclassify

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aseaofblue.com/platform/amp/2019/8/13/20804317/kentucky-wildcats-news-paolo-banchero-duke-blue-devils-kansas-jayhawks

With the 2022 draft likely to allow in high schoolers (meaning class of 2021 and class of 2022 high schoolers would both be eligible) I cannot come up with any smart reason a top tier class of 2021 guy would not flee that class in a big way if he could. But, to each his own.

-Jason "the 2022 draft is going to be redonkulous" Evans

[budwom]

With the 2022 draft likely to allow in high schoolers (meaning class of 2021 and class of 2022 high schoolers would both be eligible) I cannot come up with any smart reason a top tier class of 2021 guy would not flee that class in a big way if he could. But, to each his own.

-Jason "the 2022 draft is going to be redonkulous" Evans

involves premium content from elsewhere, but there is at least one good reason why he should not flee that class.

[Troublemaker]

Banchero won't reclassify

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aseaofblue.com/platform/amp/2019/8/13/20804317/kentucky-wildcats-news-paolo-banchero-duke-blue-devils-kansas-jayhawks

Excellent news. He can now become our top big man target in 2021.

[arnie]

With the 2022 draft likely to allow in high schoolers (meaning class of 2021 and class of 2022 high schoolers would both be eligible) I cannot come up with any smart reason a top tier class of 2021 guy would not flee that class in a big way if he could. But, to each his own.

-Jason "the 2022 draft is going to be redonkulous" Evans

But the NBA and players union haven’t agreed to changes in draft rules in 2022; correct? If this thing gets delayed or voted down, that draft could be skinny if other stars reclassify to avoid. Doubt that’s why he’s doing this, but could work out well. I don’t think Silver has control over the situation.

[bullettoothtony]

Kessler OV September 6.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jakeweingarten/status/1161415193265606656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1161415193265606656&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2F247sports.com%2Fcollege%2Fdu ke%2FBoard%2F101614%2FContents%2Ffive-star-center-prospect-walker-kessler-is-beginning-to-set-official-visit-dates-and-has-narrowed-his-final-list-of-schools-134125046%2F

[DavidBenAkiva]

A couple of notes on official visits for this fall.

Henry Coleman will be on campus the weekend of August 31st (courtesy of Ball Durham)
Mark Williams will be on campus November 1st (247Sports)

Walker Kessler has also stated that he will take an official visit to Duke this fall, although I do not see a date set as of yet. Kessler has previously stated his intent to commit before the end of the year.
I assume we will hear more soon about other top Duke targets, including Zaire Williams and DJ Steward.

Updating this with the Kessler news now that we know his official visit date will be September 6th. Before visiting Duke, Kessler will be going to Michigan at the end of August. After Duke, the big man visits UNC (9/20-22) and then Gonzaga (10/4-6).

Based on the official visits, it seems like Kessler could commit before November.

[Bluedevil114]

Updating this with the Kessler news now that we know his official visit date will be September 6th. Before visiting Duke, Kessler will be going to Michigan at the end of August. After Duke, the big man visits UNC (9/20-22) and then Gonzaga (10/4-6).

Based on the official visits, it seems like Kessler could commit before November.

Based on the official visits, it seems like Kessler could commit before 9/20. Why go through that scheduled miserable weekend.

[UrinalCake]

But the NBA and players union haven’t agreed to changes in draft rules in 2022; correct? If this thing gets delayed or voted down, that draft could be skinny if other stars reclassify to avoid. Doubt that’s why he’s doing this, but could work out well. I don’t think Silver has control over the situation.

Yeah, it’s definitely not a done deal that the age minimum is going away in 2022, and the closer we get to that date without a decision being made, the less likely it seems that will happen. And while reclassifying might mean you avoid the double draft, it also means you’re a year younger when facing college level competition and thus more likely to struggle.

[Troublemaker]

Yeah, it’s definitely not a done deal that the age minimum is going away in 2022, and the closer we get to that date without a decision being made, the less likely it seems that will happen. And while reclassifying might mean you avoid the double draft, it also means you’re a year younger when facing college level competition and thus more likely to struggle.

The NBA CBA (collective bargaining agreement) runs thru the 23-24 season, but either side can opt out of the CBA after the 22-23 season.

Basically if the OAD discussion doesn't gain traction and reach resolution soon, it'll be very tempting to just roll the OAD change (if it even happens) into the negotiations for the next CBA after expiration of the current one.

[907bluedevils]

Eric Bossi on rivals mentions Duke has been more recently in contact with 5* and fellow Alaskan Daishen Nix. Sounds like one of the better passers in the nation.

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/three-point-play-n-faly-dante-daishen-nix-j-t-thor

Duke did not make his top 5. Don't think he was any type of a priority.

[kcduke75]

Eric Bossi on rivals mentions Duke has been more recently in contact with 5* and fellow Alaskan Daishen Nix. Sounds like one of the better passers in the nation.

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/three-point-play-n-faly-dante-daishen-nix-j-t-thor

UCLA says hi!

[907bluedevils]

ESPN has updated their rankings post-summer.

Commits:

Johnson at #4
Roach at #14

Targets:

Ziaire Williams #5
Walker Kessler #13
DJ Steward #25
Mark Williams #29
Hunter Dickinson #35
Henry Coleman III #41


http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/view/espnu100/sort/rank/class/2020

[DavidBenAkiva]

ESPN has updated their rankings post-summer.

Commits:

Johnson at #4
Roach at #14

Targets:

Ziaire Williams #5
Walker Kessler #13
DJ Steward #25
Mark Williams #29
Hunter Dickinson #35
Henry Coleman III #41


http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/view/espnu100/sort/rank/class/2020

Has Duke offered Dickinson?

Crazy to think that the Blue Devils might end up with 7 of these players. That would be a very good and deep class with a mix of one-and-done (Johnson, Z. Williams, and Kessler) and multi-year players.

[UrinalCake]

Also kind of crazy that Roach has moved up despite not playing while he recovers from injury.

[frb]

New 247sports rankings (this is 247sport's staff rankings-- NOT THEIR COMPOSITE RANKINGS when they factor in rivals, espn, etc...)

DUKE TARGETS/COMMITS
#5 Zaire Williams - UP 1 spot
#7 Jalen Johnson - No change
#8 Scottie Barnes - DOWN 2 spots
#12 Walker Kessler - No Change
#18 Jeremy Roach- DOWN 2 spots
#25 DJ Steward - UP 5 spots
#28 Mark Williams - UP 6 spots
#36 Henry Coleman - DOWN 4 spots

[English]

5-star Mark Williams has now added Michigan to his final list of schools, bringing the latest list to:
Duke, UCLA, VaTech, Stanford, GTown, tOSU, and Michigan.

[DavidBenAkiva]

A couple of Henry Coleman updates.

1) He will be making an official visit to Duke this weekend (8/31-9/1)
2) Andrew Slater logged a Crystal Ball selection in Duke's favor on Monday

[Rich]

Crazy to think that the Blue Devils might end up with 7 of these players. That would be a very good and deep class with a mix of one-and-done (Johnson, Z. Williams, and Kessler) and multi-year players.

Coach K must FINALLY be reading the DBR Boards!

[mkirsh]

Coach K must FINALLY be reading the DBR Boards!

Only if he plays more than 7 guys in big games...

[NSDukeFan]

Only if he plays more than 7 guys in big games...

Would they all have to get in for at least 10 minutes?

[DavidBenAkiva]

5-star Mark Williams has now added Michigan to his final list of schools, bringing the latest list to:
Duke, UCLA, VaTech, Stanford, GTown, tOSU, and Michigan.

Quick update on Mark Williams: According to Jake Weingarten, Williams has dropped Georgetown and Virginia Tech from schools he is considering. He's booked official visits at his final five schools, including Stanford, UCLA (last weekend), Ohio State (early October), Michigan (late October), and Duke (November 1-3).

[bullettoothtony]

Do we have a realistic shot at Clarke or is he pretty much Kentucky-bound?

[JasonEvans]

Do we have a realistic shot at Clarke or is he pretty much Kentucky-bound?

All the experts, including several close to the Duke program, say he is headed to Kentucky. But, the experts have been wrong before.

[Pghdukie]

Henry Coleman may not like the football game, but I sure hope he enjoys everything else about Duke ! Hope his visit goes well and the end result is a positive one.

[jimsumner]

All the experts, including several close to the Duke program, say he is headed to Kentucky. But, the experts have been wrong before.

If his visit to Kentucky does turn out to be his only official visit, well the trend lines aren't that good for Duke, methinks.

[left_hook_lacey]

Only if he plays more than 7 guys in big games...

This is the year, I can feel it.

[devildeac]

This is the year, I can feel it.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWGuzwj4DSs

[left_hook_lacey]

There seems to be some movement in the Ziaire Williams recruiting battle. My friends and family that follow UNC closely seem to think they have made strides recently to secure a Z. Williams commitment. There are whispers of a "package deal" including D. s
Sharpe and potentially others. They said Sharpe hinted at in on Twitter, but I don't gots the Twitter's.

Who are the perceived leaders right now for Sharpe and Williams?

UNC has been delusional the last few years about this same type of "package deal" only for us to come in at the last minute and snatch almost everyone(or some other blue blood).

But this seems different, the people I spoke with seem extra excited about this class suddenly.

Who knows, we shall see.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

There seems to be some movement in the Ziaire Williams recruiting battle. My friends and family that follow UNC closely seem to think they have made strides recently to secure a Z. Williams commitment. There are whispers of a "package deal" including D. s
Sharpe and potentially others. They said Sharpe hinted at in on Twitter, but I don't gots the Twitter's.

Who are the perceived leaders right now for Sharpe and Williams?

UNC has been delusional the last few years about this same type of "package deal" only for us to come in at the last minute and snatch almost everyone(or some other blue blood).

But this seems different, the people I spoke with seem extra excited about this class suddenly.

Who knows, we shall see.
Ok. I’ll bite. On what basis do they feel they have made strides? Are the whispers about the allure of “easy” classes, free rental cars and the like?

[907bluedevils]

There seems to be some movement in the Ziaire Williams recruiting battle. My friends and family that follow UNC closely seem to think they have made strides recently to secure a Z. Williams commitment. There are whispers of a "package deal" including D. s
Sharpe and potentially others. They said Sharpe hinted at in on Twitter, but I don't gots the Twitter's.

Who are the perceived leaders right now for Sharpe and Williams?

UNC has been delusional the last few years about this same type of "package deal" only for us to come in at the last minute and snatch almost everyone(or some other blue blood).

But this seems different, the people I spoke with seem extra excited about this class suddenly.

Who knows, we shall see.

Sharpe committed to UNC in 2018.

[left_hook_lacey]

Sharpe committed to UNC in 2018.

I guess they meant Sharp hinted at the possibility of more uncommitted recruits joining his class.

[left_hook_lacey]

Ok. I’ll bite. On what basis do they feel they have made strides? Are the whispers about the allure of “easy” classes, free rental cars and the like?

Easy classes? If they told a recruit they could get an "easy class", they probably couldn't secure the commitment. ;) UNC recruits are used to a "no class" policy.

I don't know, but something supposedly happened today and Sharpe announced it on Twitter, but it wasn't official. Like I said, I'll believe it when I see it. But, I have not seen this crowd this hopeful about a class in a while. It's like Cole Anthony x 5.

[Pghdukie]

Walker Kessler will be on an official visit to Duke this weekend.

[DavidBenAkiva]

There seems to be some movement in the Ziaire Williams recruiting battle. My friends and family that follow UNC closely seem to think they have made strides recently to secure a Z. Williams commitment. There are whispers of a "package deal" including D. s
Sharpe and potentially others. They said Sharpe hinted at in on Twitter, but I don't gots the Twitter's.

Who are the perceived leaders right now for Sharpe and Williams?

UNC has been delusional the last few years about this same type of "package deal" only for us to come in at the last minute and snatch almost everyone(or some other blue blood).

But this seems different, the people I spoke with seem extra excited about this class suddenly.

Who knows, we shall see.

Andrew Slater has suggested that Z. Williams could be making an official visit to UNC in late September for "Late Night with Roy." Williams just completed his first and only scheduled official visit, to USC. He goes to high school in California, so an easy commute. Duke is in the "final 7" but has not scheduled an official visit yet. Hopefully, that comes soon enough.

[DavidBenAkiva]

New 247sports rankings (this is 247sport's staff rankings-- NOT THEIR COMPOSITE RANKINGS when they factor in rivals, espn, etc...)

DUKE TARGETS/COMMITS
#5 Zaire Williams - UP 1 spot
#7 Jalen Johnson - No change
#8 Scottie Barnes - DOWN 2 spots
#12 Walker Kessler - No Change
#18 Jeremy Roach- DOWN 2 spots
#25 DJ Steward - UP 5 spots
#28 Mark Williams - UP 6 spots
#36 Henry Coleman - DOWN 4 spots

Rivals (https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals150/2020) has updated their rankings for the Class of 2020.

#4 Jalen Johnson - No change
#5 Ziaire Williams - UP 3 spots
#8 Scottie Barnes - DOWN 2 spots
#19 Walker Kessler - No change
#23 Jeremy Roach - DOWN 2 spots
#30 DJ Steward - UP 5 spots
#37 Mark Williams - UP 14 spots
#43 Henry Coleman - DOWN 2 spots

Seems to be growing consensus out there that Jalen Johnson and Ziaire Williams are elite top 10 players in the Class of 2020 while Walker Kessler and Jeremy Roach are in that next tier with Steward, Mark Williams, and Henry Coleman right on their heels. It's possible that Duke could add 7 of the players above, including the names I just listed. Lately, I am beginning to wonder if Ziaire Williams is going to wait it out and see what happens with some of his final schools. He has a final list of 7 schools but has only scheduled and completed one official visit. Perhaps he is waiting to hear more about Wendell Moore and Cassius Stanley? I am forming an opinion that the longer he waits, the better news that will be for Duke.

Mark Williams seems to be drawing a lot of attention, taking big leaps in the rankings. He has the height, length, and skills to be an intriguing center prospect on the defensive side of the ball.

[jimsumner]

Rivals (https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals150/2020) has updated their rankings for the Class of 2020.

#4 Jalen Johnson - No change
#5 Ziaire Williams - UP 3 spots
#8 Scottie Barnes - DOWN 2 spots
#19 Walker Kessler - No change
#23 Jeremy Roach - DOWN 2 spots
#30 DJ Steward - UP 5 spots
#37 Mark Williams - UP 14 spots
#43 Henry Coleman - DOWN 2 spots

l.

Do we have any reason to believe that Duke is actually recruiting Scottie Barnes?

[DavidBenAkiva]

Do we have any reason to believe that Duke is actually recruiting Scottie Barnes?

These are the players that have a current offer. I haven't heard anything that suggests that Barnes is a priority. My assumption is that Jalen Johnson is going to be the "4" on the team next season, barring something crazy like Matthew Hurt sticking around for a sophomore season.

Come to think of it, would it be entirely out of the realm of possibility were Hurt, Moore, and Stanley to play their sophomore year at Duke? That would be an interesting situation. I give that like a 1% chance of happening.

[superdave]

These are the players that have a current offer. I haven't heard anything that suggests that Barnes is a priority. My assumption is that Jalen Johnson is going to be the "4" on the team next season, barring something crazy like Matthew Hurt sticking around for a sophomore season.

Come to think of it, would it be entirely out of the realm of possibility were Hurt, Moore, and Stanley to play their sophomore year at Duke? That would be an interesting situation. I give that like a 1% chance of happening.

I would say the odds of two of them coming back are more like 15-20% and one of them back at better than 50%. Mr. Jones is back next year and will see his role increase substantially. Could be a good case study for the three guys above. There's only one basketball to go around...

[UrinalCake]

Hurt and Moore seem like guys who will be better college players than NBA players, which is a good thing for us. Stanley seems more like an NBA player. Who knows what this means in terms of guys leaving or staying, but I’m holding out hope that one or two of them will stay, giving us an incredible mix of experience and talent in 2020 (assuming we land a couple more blue chippers). I’m not expecting Tre to return, I think it’s possible but I just feel so lucky already that we got him back for his sophomore year.

[DukieTiger]

Hurt and Moore seem like guys who will be better college players than NBA players, which is a good thing for us. Stanley seems more like an NBA player. Who knows what this means in terms of guys leaving or staying, but I’m holding out hope that one or two of them will stay, giving us an incredible mix of experience and talent in 2020 (assuming we land a couple more blue chippers). I’m not expecting Tre to return, I think it’s possible but I just feel so lucky already that we got him back for his sophomore year.

While possibly true, there are at least some lower level scouts who rank Hurt and Moore in Tier 2 for next year's draft (for context, that's the tier most scouts rated RJ this year).

For example, this guy: https://www.thestepien.com/2019/06/21/mike-gribanovs-first-crack-2020-big-board/

Two notes:
1) If you're in to prospect scouting and the NBA draft in general, the Stepien is a phenomenal website doing some really great things.
2) Mike Gribanov is the first scout I remember seeing who had Zion as clearly the #1 prospect in last year's class. He was something like a year ahead of everyone else.

[JasonEvans]

While possibly true, there are at least some lower level scouts who rank Hurt and Moore in Tier 2 for next year's draft (for context, that's the tier most scouts rated RJ this year).

For example, this guy: https://www.thestepien.com/2019/06/21/mike-gribanovs-first-crack-2020-big-board/

Two notes:
1) If you're in to prospect scouting and the NBA draft in general, the Stepien is a phenomenal website doing some really great things.
2) Mike Gribanov is the first scout I remember seeing who had Zion as clearly the #1 prospect in last year's class. He was something like a year ahead of everyone else.

Ummm... while I respect his opinion and he certainly has spent more time watching these kids than I have, he is out on a pretty thin limb if he thinks Wisemen and Stewart are barely top 20 prospects. Obviously, we need to see them play some at the college level, but what I saw from those guys at McD practices leads me to believe they will both easily be top 10 draft picks.

[DukieTiger]

Ummm... while I respect his opinion and he certainly has spent more time watching these kids than I have, he is out on a pretty thin limb if he thinks Wisemen and Stewart are barely top 20 prospects. Obviously, we need to see them play some at the college level, but what I saw from those guys at McD practices leads me to believe they will both easily be top 10 draft picks.

For sure, but he’s eating them based on their NBA impact - not predicting where they will be drafted. Feel like there are other non-mainstream scouts who feel similarly about Wiseman and Stewart.

Tier-based approach also gravitates away from a linear ranking and the understanding is that there is a lot of fluidity in that tier usually.

[SkyBrickey]

That’s pretty exciting seeing Wendell Moore ranked that highly by a scout. Is he the second coming of Matt Jones or Justice Winslow? This guy thinks he can have more of a JW type impact.

On the flip side, I hope Vernon Carey’s drop in all the rankings and projections is motivating him this off season. When we signed him he was our #1 recruit and one of the top recruits in the country. Fine by me if the big fella shows up with a chip on his shoulder...

[jimsumner]

That’s pretty exciting seeing Wendell Moore ranked that highly by a scout. Is he the second coming of Matt Jones or Justice Winslow? This guy thinks he can have more of a JW type impact.

On the flip side, I hope Vernon Carey’s drop in all the rankings and projections is motivating him this off season. When we signed him he was our #1 recruit and one of the top recruits in the country. Fine by me if the big fella shows up with a chip on his shoulder...

Duke expects really big things from Moore this season. He's an elite run-jump athlete, much closer to Winslow than to Jones. Moore might be the best NBA prospect on the team. I would be stunned to see him back next season.

Carey? Remember he sprained an ankle late last season and missed the high-profile all-star games. I think that explains much--if not all-of his drop. A reclass or two also bumped him down a bit. Duke needs to surround him with shooters but the options are there.

[DukieTiger]

IMO, Carey’s drop has just as much to do with his NBA projectability than his high school performance. The scouts I follow (so take it with a grain of salt) seem to think his skills don’t fit the modern NBA as well as others. He might very well be one whose college impact is greater than his NBA impact.

That said, he might also prove the doubters wrong and show a solid mid-to-long range shot and an improved ability as a team defender. I think those are the things scouts look for from bigs if they are going to rate them highly these days.

[UrinalCake]

Yeah I think it’s almost impossible for a big to be projected as a lottery pick unless he can shoot threes and defend in space. We just saw Bol Bol go from top-5 to the middle of the second round. Carey is obviously a different type of player but nobody values low post bigs anymore. I think he can still be a beast for us though, there aren’t that many guys who can match up with that size.

[JayZee]

Duke expects really big things from Moore this season. He's an elite run-jump athlete, much closer to Winslow than to Jones. Moore might be the best NBA prospect on the team. I would be stunned to see him back next season.

Carey? Remember he sprained an ankle late last season and missed the high-profile all-star games. I think that explains much--if not all-of his drop. A reclass or two also bumped him down a bit. Duke needs to surround him with shooters but the options are there.

That's the most exciting post of the summer! I thought that the upside for Moore was freshman Battier. High end glue guy. Good, not great athleticism. Winner. Sounds like all that and more. Sophomore Battier?? I also really liked hearing that he can shoot FTs. Absent Tatum, our highly ranked Frosh have had some adventures at the line.

[SkyBrickey]

It’s a really unique roster this year. Hard to see who gets left out of the rotation. The senior captains bring experience and toughness and will definitely play. I expect OConnell to make that junior year leap after getting significant playing time last year. Goldwire will get his backup pg minutes. I guess it’s most likely Stanley and Baker but they both bring elite skillsets - athleticism and shooting. Don’t want to start a minutes debate here but the projections on Moore and Hurt just highlight how crowded and deep our talent is this year.

[MChambers]

It’s a really unique roster this year. Hard to see who gets left out of the rotation. The senior captains bring experience and toughness and will definitely play. I expect OConnell to make that junior year leap after getting significant playing time last year. Goldwire will get his backup pg minutes. I guess it’s most likely Stanley and Baker but they both bring elite skillsets - athleticism and shooting. Don’t want to start a minutes debate here but the projections on Moore and Hurt just highlight how crowded and deep our talent is this year.

10 recruited players for a 10 man rotation! Tre gets 35 minutes a game. Leaves 165 for the other 9, who each get just over 18 minutes!

[accfanfrom1970]

Walker Kessler will be on an official visit to Duke this weekend.

Actually checked out of the Washington Duke Inn this morning, the whole staff was in the lobby. Thought about saying hello, then Kessler and his parents came in. Dude is really tall, towered over Javin whom I’m assuming was hosting.

[DavidBenAkiva]

For those that follow such things, Evan Daniels has logged a Crystal Ball pick for Henry Coleman III to Duke. Daniels tends to be pretty accurate with these predictions.

[DavidBenAkiva]

According to Evan Daniels and Jake Weingarten, DJ Steward flew down to Durham last night (and good thing, because there were some nasty storms rolling through Chicago overnight) and will be on campus for an official visit this weekend.

Steward is a 6'3" guard known for his shooting and can play point or off the ball. He seems to be more of a scoring guard with excellent touch. Steward attends Whitney Young High School, a magnet school with several well-known alums, including Jahlil Okafor. Steward is being pursued by Louisville, Texas, and others. He seems to have a lot of interest in Duke and the feeling is mutual.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkJ0c1MQ5To

[flyingdutchdevil]

According to Evan Daniels and Jake Weingarten, DJ Steward flew down to Durham last night (and good thing, because there were some nasty storms rolling through Chicago overnight) and will be on campus for an official visit this weekend.

Steward is a 6'3" guard known for his shooting and can play point or off the ball. He seems to be more of a scoring guard with excellent touch. Steward attends Whitney Young High School, a magnet school with several well-known alums, including Jahlil Okafor. Steward is being pursued by Louisville, Texas, and others. He seems to have a lot of interest in Duke and the feeling is mutual.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkJ0c1MQ5To

Chicago kid? check
Same school as Jahlil? check
Lights out shooter? check
Need for a 2 next year? check

I mean, this kid has 'Duke' written all over him.

[DavidBenAkiva]

As things heat up with recruitment for the Class of 2020, I wanted to pause and see where the roster stands for 2020-21. Here's my attempt to make sense of the current offers and team, sort of a thinking-out-loud exercise, if you will.

9781

Now the big question relates to a couple of unknowns.

First, will Cassius Stanley or Wendell Moore be on campus in 2020-21. My gut tells me no, although those situations can change over the course of a season (see Jones, Tre). If either or both remain on the roster in 2020-21, I expect that they will start for the team. And I would be delighted about that. O'Connell and Baker could be a great, experienced, "Shake and Bake" combo that provides some needed shooting on the wings.

The other unknown up there is Ziaire Williams, the 6'7" SF from California. He's an ideal compliment to Jalen Johnson at the forward spot as a long and athletic shooter. I expect he would slot in at starting SF were he to commit.

The big question mark, to me, is who from the Class of 2021 could be reclass. The big name to watch is Jonathan Kuminga. He's the consensus #1 player in the current class of juniors as a do-it-all wing. Like Ziaire Williams, he could easily slide in as a starting wing and may even compliment Williams. Having all three of Kuminga, Z. Williams, and Johnson on the floor presents some intriguing offensive and defensive possibilities. Kumings seems to hold interest in Duke, if the Crystal Ball is to be believed. It is a situation worth watching.

[GGLC]

Wow, we really have virtually nothing in the cupboard in terms of upperclassmen.

[jimsumner]

Wow, we really have virtually nothing in the cupboard in terms of upperclassmen.

I've said this earlier but I really think Duke could bring in seven or eight players in this class.

[devilnfla]

I've said this earlier but I really think Duke could bring in seven or eight players in this class.

J. Johnson
J. Roach
H. Coleman
M. Williams
W. Kessler
D. Steward
Z. Williams, and/or
J. Kuminga (reclass)

There's your 7 and/or 8.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Via his twitter account (https://twitter.com/hencoleman3/status/1173725363094114305), Henry Coleman III announced that he will be announcing his college decision on Friday, September 27th at 3:30 p.m. at his high school.

[bullettoothtony]

J. Johnson
J. Roach
H. Coleman
M. Williams
W. Kessler
D. Steward
Z. Williams, and/or
J. Kuminga (reclass)

There's your 7 and/or 8.

I think/hope that's what it'll end up being. Kuminga instead of Z. Williams.

If that does happen hopefully it'll also mean Z. Williams stays on the west coast instead of Orange County Community College.

[JasonEvans]

Via his twitter account (https://twitter.com/hencoleman3/status/1173725363094114305), Henry Coleman III announced that he will be announcing his college decision on Friday, September 27th at 3:30 p.m. at his high school.

Look, we all know the Crystal Ball on 247 is not perfect... Reid Travis anyone??... but it currently stands at 100% toward Duke. Among those making picks is Evan Daniels, who is 247's top recruiting analyst with a hit rate of better than 94% on his picks.

That said, he just had his visit to Va Tech over the weekend. This appears to be an All-ACC race of Duke against Va Tech. Coleman's dad played football at Va Tech. Perhaps the weekend visit pulled Va Tech into the lead or maybe it confirmed that Duke is where Coleman wants to be. We will know in a couple weeks.

-Jason "I am sure Va Tech is talking about him being a star there... while he would likely be a role player at Duke (maybe a star in later years). I'm always impressed by kids who chose the more difficult path and want to fight for success" Evans

[SkyBrickey]

With our expected mass frontcourt exodus, Coleman could conceivably start at the 4 as a freshman. Or at the very least see meaningful minutes. And compete for ACC and national championships. And play on TV every night under the GOAT. That should trump anything VA Tech can conjure up.

[jimsumner]

With our expected mass frontcourt exodus, Coleman could conceivably start at the 4 as a freshman. Or at the very least see meaningful minutes. And compete for ACC and national championships. And play on TV every night under the GOAT. That should trump anything VA Tech can conjure up.

Hey Henry, stay in your home state, be a Hokie like you've always wanted and be the man instead of being just another cog in Duke's one-and-done machine, where you'll be recruited over and always be an afterthought to the next class of lottery picks.

I'm pretty sure that's in the neighborhood of what VT is conjuring up.

[SkyBrickey]

I see Coleman and Steward and M Williams as huge recruits in this class. Players ranked in that 30-50 range who are quality ACC starters, maybe even all-ACC caliber, but who are not heading for the NBA exit after one year. If I could wave my magic wand, these types of players would be the backbone of the program with 1-2 one-and-dones sprinkled in each year. I know recruiting that mix is easier said than done. Top 50 players want to come into a situation where they get court time right away. I also understand M Williams may now be tracking as a potential oad.

[quahog174]

Via his twitter account (https://twitter.com/hencoleman3/status/1173725363094114305), Henry Coleman III announced that he will be announcing his college decision on Friday, September 27th at 3:30 p.m. at his high school.

Does this bode well for us with the football team playing VA Tech that night? Would he choose Duke and then dare be at the game??

[DavidBenAkiva]

I see Coleman and Steward and M Williams as huge recruits in this class. Players ranked in that 30-50 range who are quality ACC starters, maybe even all-ACC caliber, but who are not heading for the NBA exit after one year. If I could wave my magic wand, these types of players would be the backbone of the program with 1-2 one-and-dones sprinkled in each year. I know recruiting that mix is easier said than done. Top 50 players want to come into a situation where they get court time right away. I also understand M Williams may now be tracking as a potential oad.

Isn't the program already filled with a backbone of quality multi-year players? The team this upcoming season is going to feature two seniors in Javin DeLaurier and Jack White and two juniors in Jordan Goldwire and Alex O'Connell that have all played a substantial roles on the team the past two seasons. Hopefully, Joey Baker joins that group this year as a solid bench contributor. Coleman, Steward, and M. Williams would be excellent additions and help fill specific and long-term needs for this team.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Does this bode well for us with the football team playing VA Tech that night? Would he choose Duke and then dare be at the game??

I have never once heard of a recruit committing to play basketball at a school because of the outcome of one football game.

[quahog174]

I have never once heard of a recruit committing to play basketball at a school because of the outcome of one football game.

1) He's announcing before the game.
2) I am just pointing out the fact that we play VA Tech that night. Seems like more than just a coincidence to me.

[BD80]

I have never once heard of a recruit committing to play basketball at a school because of the outcome of one football game.

Now that would be something: "I will sign a letter of intent with the school that wins this afternoon's football game!"

[JasonEvans]

Now that would be something: "I will sign a letter of intent with the school that wins this afternoon's football game!"

Duke is expected to be a small favorite in the game with Va Tech.

[budwom]

Duke is expected to be a small favorite in the game with Va Tech.

yeah, just like last year when we were ranked, undefeated, on national TV, and laid a massive turd egg against VT...I hope they learned something from that. Maybe it helps that it's at VT...great atmosphere at last year's game, then our performance just sucked the life out of the crowd...a truly abysmal performance.

[arnie]

Duke is expected to be a small favorite in the game with Va Tech.

Who is expecting this? I’m not and doubt the Vegas opening line will have us favored. We shall see😏

[Troublemaker]

I see Coleman and Steward and M Williams as huge recruits in this class. Players ranked in that 30-50 range who are quality ACC starters, maybe even all-ACC caliber, but who are not heading for the NBA exit after one year. If I could wave my magic wand, these types of players would be the backbone of the program with 1-2 one-and-dones sprinkled in each year. I know recruiting that mix is easier said than done. Top 50 players want to come into a situation where they get court time right away. I also understand M Williams may now be tracking as a potential oad.

Coleman and maybe MWilliams, but I personally wouldn't group Steward in with them as expected multi-year players, considering how valuable shooting is in the NBA. I sort of think Steward would come in, start and be OAD at this point. But I'll make that case more extensively in the "Welcome to Duke..." thread if it is created, so effort isn't wasted if he commits elsewhere.

[Kedsy]

If I could wave my magic wand, these types of players would be the backbone of the program with 1-2 one-and-dones sprinkled in each year.


You mean like in 2013-14? We had nine players with recruiting ranking between 21 and 61, plus a #12 and a #3. Careful what you wish for.

[phaedrus]

You mean like in 2013-14? We had nine players with recruiting ranking between 21 and 61, plus a #12 and a #3. Careful what you wish for.

That team wasn't so bad, until the last game of the season. And a few of those players went on to play key roles the next season. That turned out well.

[SkyBrickey]

You mean like in 2013-14? We had nine players with recruiting ranking between 21 and 61, plus a #12 and a #3. Careful what you wish for.

I’m not necessarily claiming it pays off in year 1 but it potentially creates more sustainable excellence.

And, no, out of Jack, Javin, Alex and Jordan, my recollection is that only Javin was a top 50ish recruit. Don’t misread me - I love all those guys and am very happy we have them. They are all contributors and represent Duke very well.

[UrinalCake]

The other glaring example of an experienced team with a single OAD was of course 2012, another season with great moments that ended in humiliating fashion.

[Kedsy]

I’m not necessarily claiming it pays off in year 1 but it potentially creates more sustainable excellence.

And, no, out of Jack, Javin, Alex and Jordan, my recollection is that only Javin was a top 50ish recruit. Don’t misread me - I love all those guys and am very happy we have them. They are all contributors and represent Duke very well.

Javin was #35, according to RSCI. The next closest of the four to the top 50 was Alex at #69.

But if it's "sustainable excellence" that you want, I'd argue that realistically, you can't do any better than Duke has done with K's existing strategy. In the last 23 years, Duke has been in the top 10 in the AP final poll 21 times (and top 20 in one of the others), including 11 times in the top 5 and six times at #1. If you only want to count the last 10 years (the OAD era, since Calipari arrived at UK), Duke has been in the final AP top 10 nine times (top 20 the other time), including four top 5 and one #1.

I'd also note that in Duke's best NCAA tournament performances of the 21st Century (Elite Eight or better), our successful formula has been to load up on top 10 and top 20 guys, and to rely very little on 30 to 50 guys. So, while you may be right that relying on 30 to 50 guys might be a successful formula, there isn't any evidence for it. Or at least there isn't any evidence that it would work at Duke.



Year top 10 top 15 top 20 top 25 top 30 30 to 50
2001 4 4 5 5 7 0
2004 3 5 5 6 8* 1*
2010 1 2 5 6 7 0
2013 0 3 3 4 4 3
2015 2 4* 4* 6* 6* 3*
2018 3 5 5 6 6 1
2019 3 5 5 5 5 2


* - #30 Michael Thompson (2004), #12 Rasheed Sulaimon (2015), and #32 Semi Ojeleye (2105) did not finish the season or play in the NCAA tournament in their respective seasons.

[BD80]

Javin was #35, according to RSCI. The next closest of the four to the top 50 was Alex at #69.

But if it's "sustainable excellence" that you want, I'd argue that realistically, you can't do any better than Duke has done with K's existing strategy. In the last 23 years, Duke has been in the top 10 in the AP final poll 21 times (and top 20 in one of the others), including 11 times in the top 5 and six times at #1. If you only want to count the last 10 years (the OAD era, since Calipari arrived at UK), Duke has been in the final AP top 10 nine times (top 20 the other time), including four top 5 and one #1.

I'd also note that in Duke's best NCAA tournament performances of the 21st Century (Elite Eight or better), our successful formula has been to load up on top 10 and top 20 guys, and to rely very little on 30 to 50 guys. So, while you may be right that relying on 30 to 50 guys might be a successful formula, there isn't any evidence for it. Or at least there isn't any evidence that it would work at Duke.



Year top 10 top 15 top 20 top 25 top 30 30 to 50
2001 4 4 5 5 7 0
2004 3 5 5 6 8* 1*
2010 1 2 5 6 7 0
2013 0 3 3 4 4 3
2015 2 4* 4* 6* 6* 3*
2018 3 5 5 6 6 1
2019 3 5 5 5 5 2


* - #30 Michael Thompson (2004), #12 Rasheed Sulaimon (2015), and #32 Semi Ojeleye (2105) did not finish the season or play in the NCAA tournament in their respective seasons.


Never get involved in a land war in Asia.

And NEVER go against Kedsy when stats are on the line!

[JasonEvans]

Who is expecting this? I’m not and doubt the Vegas opening line will have us favored. We shall see😏

All the computer models say Duke is favored. Sagarin's computer says we should be a 4 point favorite, even though the game is in Blacksburg.

That said, because bettors are trained to think Va Tech is good and Duke is bad, I expect the game will open very close to break-even... and I expect the sharps to be eyeing this game as one where they may be able to make some real money if the line is too pro-Va Tech.

[SkyBrickey]

You mean like in 2013-14? We had nine players with recruiting ranking between 21 and 61, plus a #12 and a #3. Careful what you wish for.

Yes, exactly like 2013-14. A good year, not a great year, but look what happened the following year when we were able to pair up Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, and Matt Jones with 3 OAD talents.

I think we have a higher ceiling when we have top50 upperclassmen starters/key reserves mixed in with OAD talent. This debate started when I said how key I thought Coleman, Steward and M Williams are for next year’s class. Is that debatable? Would anyone argue to replace them with top100 or even OAD talent?

[jimsumner]

The 2012-13 team started three seniors, did not have a single top-10 recruit and did not have anyone who left for the NBA with eligibility remaining. And went to the Elite Eight, which is as far as any Duke team has advanced since 2015.

Of course, 2012-13 was a lifetime ago as these things go.

[lotusland]

The 2012-13 team started three seniors, did not have a single top-10 recruit and did not have anyone who left for the NBA with eligibility remaining. And went to the Elite Eight, which is as far as any Duke team has advanced since 2015.

Of course, 2012-13 was a lifetime ago as these things go.

A championship caliber team. Despite significant injuries to Ryan and Seth, that team had the horses to win it all. If those guys were 95% I think they win it.

[Kedsy]

Yes, exactly like 2013-14. A good year, not a great year, but look what happened the following year when we were able to pair up Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, and Matt Jones with 3 OAD talents.

I think we have a higher ceiling when we have top50 upperclassmen starters/key reserves mixed in with OAD talent. This debate started when I said how key I thought Coleman, Steward and M Williams are for next year’s class. Is that debatable? Would anyone argue to replace them with top100 or even OAD talent?

This is a major relocation of the goal posts.

First of all, there is a huge difference between "3 OAD talents" and "1-2 one-and-dones sprinkled in." Could anyone seriously argue that we would have won the championship with only one or two of our 2015 OADs? Also, in Duke history, we've only had more than three OADs once (2018, when we had four, although since one of those four wasn't drafted you could possibly argue he wasn't really an OAD talent). So if three OADs is OK, how could filling in the rest of the team with guys ranked 30 to 50 be better than filling it in with mostly top 25 talent like Coach K has been doing for at least the recent past? How is your proposed model different/better than what we did in 2017, 2018, or 2019?

Second, in 2015 those three OADs were supported by three former top 25 recruits, rather than the 30 to 50 level players you suggested were ideal (and if you're now arguing that the supporting players should be "top50 upperclassmen," that again is very different from your original preference for players in the "30-50 range"). If you don't count Semi Ojeleye (who transferred out after playing 63 total minutes), the 2015 team only had two players ranked at the 30 to 50 level (and at #31 and #34, those two were a lot closer to 30 than 50), plus Marshall Plumlee in the 60s (like Alex O'Connell, who you dismissed in an earlier post as not being ranked highly enough to fit your model).

Of course this may all be academic, since in the Summer RSCI, Mark Williams and DJ Steward were both ranked in the 20s, and not in the 30 to 50 range that you prefer. But even so, your last question makes little sense to me -- depending on the rest of the roster, replacing three guys in the 30 to 50 (or even 25 to 50) range with three OAD talents couldn't help but make the team better, right?

[budwom]

All the computer models say Duke is favored. Sagarin's computer says we should be a 4 point favorite, even though the game is in Blacksburg.

That said, because bettors are trained to think Va Tech is good and Duke is bad, I expect the game will open very close to break-even... and I expect the sharps to be eyeing this game as one where they may be able to make some real money if the line is too pro-Va Tech.

The computer models mean very little this early in the season...I think Sagarin would readily concede this...yes, we could be favored, but I wouldn't put money on our chances at this point...

[SkyBrickey]

I don't have time to address everything in your post and my position can be summed up by addressing your final sentence/question:

"But even so, your last question makes little sense to me -- depending on the rest of the roster, replacing three guys in the 30 to 50 (or even 25 to 50) range with three OAD talents couldn't help but make the team better, right?"

Replacing 3 recruits in the 30-50 (25-50) range like Steward/Williams/Coleman with 3 more OAD might, might make us better that year, but it leaves the cupboard completely bare for future years. We've got to bring in 6-7 more OAD's the following year. Not sustainable. And personally, not fun for me as a 35 year Duke basketball fan.

Replacing those 3 recruits with top100 guys sets us up for what we have this year with 50-100 guys like Jack, Alex, and Jordan playing key rotation minutes for us. Again, I love all three of those guys and I'm not saying we can't have a great team with them, but I don't think it's ideal (if I could wave a magic wand - which I don't have and the coaches don't have).

Back to my original point. I think Steward, Williams and Coleman are key recruits for us - top50 guys who will hopefully stick around and play multiple years. I'm just as excited to land those guys as I am the other OADs on our target list...

[Steven43]

I don't have time to address everything in your post and my position can be summed up by addressing your final sentence/question:

"But even so, your last question makes little sense to me -- depending on the rest of the roster, replacing three guys in the 30 to 50 (or even 25 to 50) range with three OAD talents couldn't help but make the team better, right?"

Replacing 3 recruits in the 30-50 (25-50) range like Steward/Williams/Coleman with 3 more OAD might, might make us better that year, but it leaves the cupboard completely bare for future years. We've got to bring in 6-7 more OAD's the following year. Not sustainable. And personally, not fun for me as a 35 year Duke basketball fan.

Replacing those 3 recruits with top100 guys sets us up for what we have this year with 50-100 guys like Jack, Alex, and Jordan playing key rotation minutes for us. Again, I love all three of those guys and I'm not saying we can't have a great team with them, but I don't think it's ideal (if I could wave a magic wand - which I don't have and the coaches don't have).

Back to my original point. I think Steward, Williams and Coleman are key recruits for us - top50 guys who will hopefully stick around and play multiple years. I'm just as excited to land those guys as I am the other OADs on our target list...
I agree with your wished-for approach to Duke recruiting. I think it makes more sense — both for sustained success on the court and, more importantly, enjoyment for the true fans who live and die with Duke Basketball and value program continuity over players who only want to use Duke as a one-year stepping-stone to the NBA.

[Hartford Dukie]

Not sure if this has been reported - Evan Daniels put in pick for Steward to Duke yesterday and apparently he has cancelled his planned visit to Louisville. Three other picks to Duke in past 24 hours. Speculation about a commitment shortly.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Not sure if this has been reported - Evan Daniels put in pick for Steward to Duke yesterday and apparently he has cancelled his planned visit to Louisville. Three other picks to Duke in past 24 hours. Speculation about a commitment shortly.

That's an exciting development. Louisville and, to a lesser degree, Texas were considered the other two schools in the hunt for Steward. For what it's worth, UofL has been getting a lot of picks on the ol' Crystal Ball for 2021 guard Devin Askew, one of the top players in that class. Perhaps the Cardinals have decided to go in a different direction in their backcourt.

I like the fit between Steward and Duke. He gives the Blue Devils a versatile backcourt player with at least one high-level skill, shooting. Duke has had a lot of success with "combo guards" like him, including Quinn Cook, Seth Curry, and even Grayson Allen. Steward could be a valuable contributor to the team from Day 1 and hopefully for a couple of years.

[arnie]

I agree with your wished-for approach to Duke recruiting. I think it makes more sense — both for sustained success on the court and, more importantly, enjoyment for the true fans who live and die with Duke Basketball and value program continuity over players who only want to use Duke as a one-year stepping-stone to the NBA.

My exact thoughts. Prefer to see more long term players and watch their development over several seasons. I’ll take my chances with the statistical differences discussed above.

[English]

I agree with your wished-for approach to Duke recruiting. I think it makes more sense — both for sustained success on the court and, more importantly, enjoyment for the true fans who live and die with Duke Basketball and value program continuity over players who only want to use Duke as a one-year stepping-stone to the NBA.

Please tell us more about what these true Duke basketball fans want. The rest of us are living in a dull ignorance, watching the players in the program last year tarnish the name on the front of their jerseys. /Eye roll

We missed the last two Final Fours by a combined two possessions. We finished as the No.1 overall seed last season. We won a natty four years ago. Please explain what sustained success means in this program, if it's not what the current recruiting strategy is delivering.

[mkirsh]

Please tell us more about what these true Duke basketball fans want. The rest of us are living in a dull ignorance, watching the players in the program last year tarnish the name on the front of their jerseys. /Eye roll

We missed the last two Final Fours by a combined two possessions. We finished as the No.1 overall seed last season. We won a natty four years ago. Please explain what sustained success means in this program, if it's not what the current recruiting strategy is delivering.

I'm not trying to pick sides here, but there are a lot of people talking past each other, and I think it's due to what people value. We all are fans because we enjoy Duke basketball, but we may enjoy it for different reasons. Some care mostly about the journey, and therefore put a lot of emphasis on watching players develop over the years. Some care more about the destination and focus mainly on NCAA tournament success and banners.

There is also no proven formula to winning. We have had great years with senior laden teams without OAD talent (2010), and we have had similarly constructed teams fizzle out. Similarly we have had disappointing seasons with OAD loaded teams, and we won a national title in 2015 relying heavily on Freshman. Single elimination tournaments with 18-21 year old players leads to erratic results. Personally, as someone who may lean towards post season success as the metric that matters to me, I think the approach of the last few years of re-loading with elite OAD talent has given us the best chance to win titles, as we were within a bucket of the FF two years in a row as English noted in their post. While other programs have had short runs of great success, like Villanova winning 2 titles in 3 years or UNC going to back to back Final Fours, I don't think anyone has had the sustained excellence of Duke over an extended period of time. To me, the OAD heavy model works as it keeps you in contention each year and gives you the most bites at the apple, but it does trade-off against great player arcs like Ryan Arcidiacono or Ty Jerome. In sum, I don't think there is a proven "right" way, but a set of trade-offs that need to be balanced where opinions will differ.

[SkyBrickey]

I like the OADs and I like the mix of targets we have for next year - all top50 players. I started this discussion by saying how important I thought Steward, M Williams and Coleman are as recruits - more important in my mind than adding more OADs. Let me frame it another way. Without these three guys, who is left on the roster after next season? Maybe Baker, maybe Stanley? Possibly Roach? These 3 guys are huge recruits for future success, so great to hear Coleman and Steward may be leaning our way.

[Kedsy]

Replacing 3 recruits in the 30-50 (25-50) range like Steward/Williams/Coleman with 3 more OAD might, might make us better that year, but it leaves the cupboard completely bare for future years. We've got to bring in 6-7 more OAD's the following year. Not sustainable. And personally, not fun for me as a 35 year Duke basketball fan.

I can't speak to how much fun you have, but as far as "Not sustainable," it seems to me Coach K has been sustaining it for the entire OAD era so far. Perhaps at one point the house of cards may fall apart, but the same thing can happen if you can't get enough 30 to 50 guys to come, or if they don't pan out so well (e.g., Josh Hairston).

But a bigger issue I see with your approach is there's no guarantee that a 30 to 50 guy will stay around and be an ACC-level starter.

The following table shows how many recruits we've had in various ranges since the one-and-done rule went into effect. There's really not much difference between how many guys in the 11 to 30 range stick around (55% of them at least started their junior year) vs. how many guys in the 31 to 60 range stick around (57% if them at least started their junior year). (Note: I made it 60 instead of 50 to include #59 Jordan Tucker, our only recruit in the 51 to 60 range). The average years each group stayed is also pretty close (and if you discounted Josh Hairston a little, which may or may not be appropriate though he was never an ACC-level starter, the years would be virtually identical).

Admittedly, the sample sizes (especially for 31 to 60) are pretty small, and maybe the 30 to 60 guys don't stick around because there are so many 1 to 30 guys ahead of them, but based on the actual numbers you might as well shoot for the better players, because they appear to stick around just as long.


SINCE THE 2006 HIGH SCHOOL CLASS (the year they started OAD)



Total OAD 2AD Tfr w/in 2 Stayed 2.5+ Stayed 4 Avg years
11 to 20 12 3 1* 2 6* 4 2.5
21 to 30 8** 1** 1 1 5 5 3.0
--------
11 to 30 20 4 2 3 11 9 2.7
31 to 60 7 0 0 3 4 4 2.9


* counting #13 Tre Jones as 2AD, though we don't know for sure he won't stick around further.
** counting #27 Rodney Hood as OAD, even though he was a transfer in and not a recruit out of high school.

[Kedsy]

These 3 guys are huge recruits for future success, so great to hear Coleman and Steward may be leaning our way.

I just saw a report that DJ Steward (#26 in the Summer RSCI) verbally committed to Duke this afternoon, so I guess we can all be happy.

[superdave]

We missed the last two Final Fours by a combined two possessions.


Coach K needs to go back to wearing the old lucky socks he wore from 1988-1992 when we went to the Final Four every year.

[SkyBrickey]

That’s super interesting analysis on how long guys stick around. I agree that there’s the added issue of some highly rated non OADS transferring if they aren’t getting playing time. We can all be happy w DJ Steward committing today. Love getting an elite shooter and seems like a great kid!

[Nugget]

I can't speak to how much fun you have, but as far as "Not sustainable," it seems to me Coach K has been sustaining it for the entire OAD era so far. Perhaps at one point the house of cards may fall apart, but the same thing can happen if you can't get enough 30 to 50 guys to come, or if they don't pan out so well (e.g., Josh Hairston).

But a bigger issue I see with your approach is there's no guarantee that a 30 to 50 guy will stay around and be an ACC-level starter.

The following table shows how many recruits we've had in various ranges since the one-and-done rule went into effect. There's really not much difference between how many guys in the 11 to 30 range stick around (55% of them at least started their junior year) vs. how many guys in the 31 to 60 range stick around (57% if them at least started their junior year). (Note: I made it 60 instead of 50 to include #59 Jordan Tucker, our only recruit in the 51 to 60 range). The average years each group stayed is also pretty close (and if you discounted Josh Hairston a little, which may or may not be appropriate though he was never an ACC-level starter, the years would be virtually identical).

Admittedly, the sample sizes (especially for 31 to 60) are pretty small, and maybe the 30 to 60 guys don't stick around because there are so many 1 to 30 guys ahead of them, but based on the actual numbers you might as well shoot for the better players, because they appear to stick around just as long.


SINCE THE 2006 HIGH SCHOOL CLASS (the year they started OAD)



Total OAD 2AD Tfr w/in 2 Stayed 2.5+ Stayed 4 Avg years
11 to 20 12 3 1* 2 6* 4 2.5
21 to 30 8** 1** 1 1 5 5 3.0
--------
11 to 30 20 4 2 3 11 9 2.7
31 to 60 7 0 0 3 4 4 2.9


* counting #13 Tre Jones as 2AD, though we don't know for sure he won't stick around further.
** counting #27 Rodney Hood as OAD, even though he was a transfer in and not a recruit out of high school.

It's a little hard to judge whether, with a recruiting strategy focused more on guys in the 30-60 range we would or wouldn't have had more sustained success over the last decade during the 1 and done era since, as Kedsy notes, the already small sample size is further thrown out of whack by all the PT that has been taken up by our ridiculous haul of Top 15 talent.

But, anecdotally, it's hard to see how we would have been better off prioritizing lower tier players over potential one and dones and then hoping that (i) they'd be good and (ii) would stay.

Our Top 10 ranked (final RSCI) recruits since 2007 have all been either 1 and done or Kyle Singler:

#6 Kyle Singler, #2 Kyrie, #2 Austin Rivers, #3 Jabari Parker, #2 Jahlil Okafor, #7 Tyus Jones, #4 Brandon Ingram, #2 Harry Giles, #3 Jayson Tatum, #1 Marvin Bagley, #5 Trevon Duval, #7 Wendell Carter, #1 RJ Barrett, #2 Cam Reddish and #4 Zion.

Guys ranked #11-20 are all over the map, with a mix of one and dones with long-term contributors and some early transfers -- mostly a testament to how much of a crapshoot recruiting is even at what is darn close to the top of the class (in my view more supportive of the notion of get the best talent you can each year rather than figuring you can successfully game out who will be both good and stay):

1 and done: #13 Justise Winslow, #14 Frank Jackson,#14 Gary Trent [#13 Tre Jones will likely be 2 and done];
3-4 year contributors: #18 Nolan Smith, #14 Ryan Kelly, #18 Mason Plumlee, #12 Rasheed Sulaimon, #11 Marques Bolden;
Transfers: #15 Elliot Williams (albeit for family health reasons after starting), #13 Derryck Thornton, #14 Chase Jeter.

Guys ranked 21-30 have been a pretty even hit or miss split:

2 and done: #21 Luke Kennard;
4 year contributors: #21 Amile Jefferson, 24 Grayson Allen;
Transfers: #27 Taylor King, #28 Michael Gbinije.

Guys in the proposed ideal range of 31-60 have, not surprisingly been more to the "miss" side than "hit," on balance:

4 year contributors: #33 Quin Cook, #34 Matt Jones;
Stayed 4 years, with no major on-court impact: #32 Josh Hairston;
Transfers: #49 Alex Murphy, #32 Semi Ojeleye, #59 Jordan Tucker;
Jury's still out: #35 Javin DeLaurier, #37 Joey Baker.

I don't see a lot of track record to suggest we would be doing much better by emphasizing 31-60s in recruiting rather than Top 20s. But, from an aesthetic/"getting to know the guys" standpoint, I can see how some Duke fans might prefer an alternative world where we got 4 years of Semi Ojeleye rather than 1 each of Jabari Parker, Justise Winslow, Brandon Ingram and then Jayson Tatum at, roughly, Semi's position.

Just for kicks, I know many here think Carolina has had a more successful run of continuity in its recruiting, but it isn't from focusing on players in the 31-60 range (it's that they've been lucky to keep guys in the 11-30 range in school for longer than they "should") -- here's their recruits in the 31-60 range since 2007:

Transfers: Larry Drew (#44, 2008), David Wear & Travis Wear (#37 & 38, 2009), Seventh Woods (#40, 2016);
No impact: #58 Joel James (2012);
4 year role players: Leslie McDonald (#44, 2009),
4 year contributors/starters: Brice Johnson (#40, 2012), JP Tokoto (#57, 2012), Kennedy Meeks (#56, 2013);
Jury's still out: Brandon Robinson (#60, 2016), Leaky Black (#64, 2018).

[rocketeli]

I was looking over the offers listed in the ESPN 2020 top 100 for the players 1-30 and there were some interesting (to me) things. I was looking at recruiting offers by UNC KY and Duke

Most of these players had other offers from other programs as well, but I focused on these three programs as most interesting to me (and probably a lot of Duke fans as well, I think)

You'd think that basketball being the same basic game at all three schools and all the schools having an abundance of resources and skill in their coaching staffs and facilities and all being able to compete for any player (UNC might be a step behind KY and Duke recently in recruiting, if not, interestingly, in results, but they are still a legit recruiting threat at the highest level) that there would be significant overlap in recruiting at the offer level between the three schools.
But you'd be wrong.

For the top 30 ESPN listed players
only 1 player (BJ Boston who signed with KY) listed offers from all three programs
only 4 players had offers from UNC and Duke (Zaire Williams, Walker Kessler, Jeremy Roach (Duke signed) and DJ Steward (Duke signed)
only three other players had offers from both Duke and KY Jalen Johnson (Duke), Scottie Barnes and Terrence Clark (KY)

other interesting information
3 players had offers from UNC and KY but not Duke--Caleb Cunningham, Isaiah Todd and Greg Brown
4 had offers from UNC only, 4 had offers from KY only and 1 had an offer from Duke only

If you further break down the top 30 into 1-15 and 16-30 you see that the top 15 had 24 offers total from these three schools, including 10 with offers from more than one school and only 2 had no offers (and both seem to be players already focused on a particular geographic area)
the bottom 15 had only 8 offers with only one with two schools offering (Steward) and 7 players with no offers from any of these three schools.

What does it all mean? There are a lot of variables underlying these observations. There are "offers" and "offers." Some player's lists, at this point in time were obviously more curated than others. Schools have different needs, strategies and open scholarships. I just think it's interesting that one, there are fewer "recruiting battles" for the top talent between these schools than you might expect, and two, experts in basketball clearly differ significantly in what they consider the best options for adding talent to their teams.

[budwom]

Great start to the class...but it gets a bit stickier from here on out...evidently we are in a good position with Coleman, Kessler and M. Williams, and Kuminga could well be lurking in the weeds...can we get all seven to commit or will one or more be worried about not being a starter? Getting seven highly ranked guys in one class is a challenge....of course six wouldn't be too bad, either...

[907bluedevils]

Great start to the class...but it gets a bit stickier from here on out...evidently we are in a good position with Coleman, Kessler and M. Williams, and Kuminga could well be lurking in the weeds...can we get all seven to commit or will one or more be worried about not being a starter? Getting seven highly ranked guys in one class is a challenge...of course six wouldn't be too bad, either...

I was wondering the same thing, I imagine if we got Kuminga and Kessler, them 2 and Johnson would all be starters and play big minutes. With potential returners and 2 other 5* in Roach and Steward, minutes are going to be hard to come by.

[devildeac]

I was wondering the same thing, I imagine if we got Kuminga and Kessler, them 2 and Johnson would all be starters and play big minutes. With potential returners and 2 other 5* in Roach and Steward, minutes are going to be hard to come by.

Sooooo, who's transferring...

<ducks>

[MChambers]

Sooooo, who's transferring...

<ducks>

First, we have to debate the likely minutes distribution, ad nauseum!

[UrinalCake]

I was looking at recruiting offers by UNC KY and Duke....

Interesting breakdown. I guess it makes sense that most kids would entertain offers from two of the schools, but not all three. Zaire Williams to UNC is unfortunately picking up some buzz, as he just took another unofficial visit there. For non-PG UNC is a death knell to the draft stock of any OAD prospect, I don’t know why anyone would go there.

[English]

I was looking over the offers listed in the ESPN 2020 top 100 for the players 1-30 and there were some interesting (to me) things. I was looking at recruiting offers by UNC KY and Duke

Most of these players had other offers from other programs as well, but I focused on these three programs as most interesting to me (and probably a lot of Duke fans as well, I think)

You'd think that basketball being the same basic game at all three schools and all the schools having an abundance of resources and skill in their coaching staffs and facilities and all being able to compete for any player (UNC might be a step behind KY and Duke recently in recruiting, if not, interestingly, in results, but they are still a legit recruiting threat at the highest level) that there would be significant overlap in recruiting at the offer level between the three schools.
But you'd be wrong.

For the top 30 ESPN listed players
only 1 player (BJ Boston who signed with KY) listed offers from all three programs
only 4 players had offers from UNC and Duke (Zaire Williams, Walker Kessler, Jeremy Roach (Duke signed) and DJ Steward (Duke signed)
only three other players had offers from both Duke and KY Jalen Johnson (Duke), Scottie Barnes and Terrence Clark (KY)

other interesting information
3 players had offers from UNC and KY but not Duke--Caleb Cunningham, Isaiah Todd and Greg Brown
4 had offers from UNC only, 4 had offers from KY only and 1 had an offer from Duke only

If you further break down the top 30 into 1-15 and 16-30 you see that the top 15 had 24 offers total from these three schools, including 10 with offers from more than one school and only 2 had no offers (and both seem to be players already focused on a particular geographic area)
the bottom 15 had only 8 offers with only one with two schools offering (Steward) and 7 players with no offers from any of these three schools.

What does it all mean? There are a lot of variables underlying these observations. There are "offers" and "offers." Some player's lists, at this point in time were obviously more curated than others. Schools have different needs, strategies and open scholarships. I just think it's interesting that one, there are fewer "recruiting battles" for the top talent between these schools than you might expect, and two, experts in basketball clearly differ significantly in what they consider the best options for adding talent to their teams.

This is a fun post, and I love analysis like this. I find hoops recruiting fascinating (despite, ya know, being a grown man following the whims of teenage boys 3-12" taller than me), and I suspect it's because I enjoy game theory so much.

To the bolded, it makes me endlessly happy that a third of the players that KY and UNC are fighting over without Duke in the mix is, by all likelihood, committing to OKSt where his brother was hired as an assistant. Listen to Gary Parrish/Matt Norlander's pod from earlier this summer for some entertaining commentary from Parrish about it. (Spoiler alert: Parrish basically said it's a waste of time for any other program to spend a moment recruiting him outside of OKSt, and that, if he was the OKSt coach, he would've already fired Brother Cunningham for not getting the commit already.)

ETA: It's Cade Cunningham...and his brother is Cannen Cunningham.

[Billy Dat]

Listen to Gary Parrish/Matt Norlander's pod from earlier this summer for some entertaining commentary from Parrish about it. (Spoiler alert: Parrish basically said it's a waste of time for any other program to spend a moment recruiting him outside of OKSt, and that, if he was the OKSt coach, he would've already fired Brother Cunningham for not getting the commit already.)

Shouts to Devan Downey, shouts to Chester, SC, shouts to the homey Terry Teagle, he's the legend, shouts to Larnelle...

[Steven43]

Please tell us more about what these true Duke basketball fans want. The rest of us are living in a dull ignorance, watching the players in the program last year tarnish the name on the front of their jerseys. /Eye roll

We missed the last two Final Fours by a combined two possessions. We finished as the No.1 overall seed last season. We won a natty four years ago. Please explain what sustained success means in this program, if it's not what the current recruiting strategy is delivering.
English, I did not say any Duke fans are living in a dull ignorance. And I certainly did not say any Duke players tarnished the name (DUKE) on the front of their jerseys. For the record it was certainly not my intent to put down any DBR posters or other Duke fans. What I meant by "true" Duke fans are those who not only value the basketball program, but who also believe that student-athletes are supposed to actually be genuine students of academia with true and honest aspirations of completing a degree at Duke University.

The idea of students coming to Duke strictly to play basketball with only a nominal effort put forth towards academics is abhorrent to me. The fact that Duke is now mentioned in the EXACT SAME BREATH as Kentucky is embarrassing. I never would have believed I would live to see the day. When I alluded to Duke fans who value program continuity I meant the continuity of players being on the basketball team for the entirety of their freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior years. Not only does this allow the players to truly grow into their role on the team while gaining experience that can only come through several years of being a part of something bigger than themselves (Duke Basketball), it also affords them the opportunity, neh, the RESPONSIBILITY, to pass on all of the various traditions of the program to the younger players. It is only those players who commit fully to the academic and student life of Duke over a four-year period (or three years plus summers) who can truly be said to be a Duke Man in every sense of the word.

To that end I place greater value on what Nolan Smith, Tyler Thornton, Grayson Allen, Nate James, Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas, the Plumlee brothers, Amile Jefferson, et al. did for Duke University than what Jabari Parker, Austin Rivers, RJ Barrett, Cameron Reddish, Marvin Bagley, et al. did. In saying this I am not at all intending to slight the OADs as people, not one bit. But I am saying that taking everything into consideration, the value of what the four-year players bring to Duke University outweighs the value of what the OADs bring, no matter how much they contribute on the court during their one year at Duke.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

English, I did not say any Duke fans are living in a dull ignorance. And I certainly did not say any Duke players tarnished the name (DUKE) on the front of their jerseys. For the record it was certainly not my intent to put down any DBR posters or other Duke fans. What I meant by "true" Duke fans are those who not only value the basketball program, but who also believe that student-athletes are supposed to actually be genuine students of academia with true and honest aspirations of completing a degree at Duke University.

The idea of students coming to Duke strictly to play basketball with only a nominal effort put forth towards academics is abhorrent to me. The fact that Duke is now mentioned in the EXACT SAME BREATH as Kentucky is embarrassing. I never would have believed I would live to see the day. When I alluded to Duke fans who value program continuity I meant the continuity of players being on the basketball team for the entirety of their freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior years. Not only does this allow the players to truly grow into their role on the team while gaining experience that can only come through several years of being a part of something bigger than themselves (Duke Basketball), it also affords them the opportunity, neh, the RESPONSIBILITY, to pass on all of the various traditions of the program to the younger players. It is only those players who commit fully to the academic and student life of Duke over a four-year period (or three years plus summers) who can truly be said to be a Duke Man in every sense of the word.

To that end I place greater value on what Nolan Smith, Tyler Thornton, Grayson Allen, Nate James, Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas, the Plumlee brothers, Amile Jefferson, et al. did for Duke University than what Jabari Parker, Austin Rivers, RJ Barrett, Cameron Reddish, Marvin Bagley, et al. did. In saying this I am not at all intending to slight the OADs as people, not one bit. But I am saying that taking everything into consideration, the value of what the four-year players bring to Duke University outweighs the value of what the OADs bring, no matter how much they contribute on the court during their one year at Duke.

I agree with 95% of what you are saying in regards to the value of long term players. I'm sure that most college sports fan laugh off that mentality of "student athletes" as quaintly old school, but I'm with you.
I am surprised, however, that you haven't learned yet that no one on this board likes to be told what "real" or "true" fans should or ought to think or do.

[Spanarkel]

I was looking over the offers listed in the ESPN 2020 top 100 for the players 1-30 and there were some interesting (to me) things. I was looking at recruiting offers by UNC KY and Duke

Most of these players had other offers from other programs as well, but I focused on these three programs as most interesting to me (and probably a lot of Duke fans as well, I think)

You'd think that basketball being the same basic game at all three schools and all the schools having an abundance of resources and skill in their coaching staffs and facilities and all being able to compete for any player (UNC might be a step behind KY and Duke recently in recruiting, if not, interestingly, in results, but they are still a legit recruiting threat at the highest level) that there would be significant overlap in recruiting at the offer level between the three schools.
But you'd be wrong.

For the top 30 ESPN listed players
only 1 player (BJ Boston who signed with KY) listed offers from all three programs
only 4 players had offers from UNC and Duke (Zaire Williams, Walker Kessler, Jeremy Roach (Duke signed) and DJ Steward (Duke signed)
only three other players had offers from both Duke and KY Jalen Johnson (Duke), Scottie Barnes and Terrence Clark (KY)

other interesting information
3 players had offers from UNC and KY but not Duke--Caleb Cunningham, Isaiah Todd and Greg Brown
4 had offers from UNC only, 4 had offers from KY only and 1 had an offer from Duke only

If you further break down the top 30 into 1-15 and 16-30 you see that the top 15 had 24 offers total from these three schools, including 10 with offers from more than one school and only 2 had no offers (and both seem to be players already focused on a particular geographic area)
the bottom 15 had only 8 offers with only one with two schools offering (Steward) and 7 players with no offers from any of these three schools.

What does it all mean? There are a lot of variables underlying these observations. There are "offers" and "offers." Some player's lists, at this point in time were obviously more curated than others. Schools have different needs, strategies and open scholarships. I just think it's interesting that one, there are fewer "recruiting battles" for the top talent between these schools than you might expect, and two, experts in basketball clearly differ significantly in what they consider the best options for adding talent to their teams.

Found your comments to be very interesting. You are 100% accurate on the Top 30 2020 players' concurrent offers from Duke, KY, and unc. I would mention that the ESPN Top 100 data base is incomplete, often listing 5-7 offers for an individual player when in fact they might hold 2-3 times that many offers(ie, Walker Kessler's SI profile lists 6 current offers--I know he's narrowed his list to his top schools--but in fact he appears to have received 23 offers, at least according to VerbalCommits.com, and Ziare Williams' SI profile lists 7 schools while VerbalCommits.com shows him to hold 17 offers).

[UrinalCake]

The idea of students coming to Duke strictly to play basketball with only a nominal effort put forth towards academics is abhorrent to me.

I know that many fans share this opinion. I guess what I’d have to say in response is that

a.) there have been plenty of four year players who are only at the school for basketball and put forth a nominal effort towards academics, they just do it over a longer period of time which I’m not sure makes it any “better.” Conversely, we’ve had OAD’s who really do soak in all they can for their one year, take classes that challenge them and engage in the student community.

b.) college basketball is just different now, and players leaving early is the norm rather than the exception. Even programs like UVA and Villanova which have reputations as four year development programs have guys leave early. It’s just a matter of degree. So I 100% agree with you that as a long-time fan it’s somewhat shocking that Duke has gone this route of targeting a whole class of OAD’s every year. But I don’t think that having zero guys leave early is really an option either.

c.) if you were to go up to any college basketball team in the entire country, pick out any random player, and offer him a first round NBA contract, I would just about guarantee that he would take it. He would drop whatever notion of academics he has and take the money. So Duke players aren’t any different in that regard, they’re just in a position to actually realize that goal of making the NBA.

[clinresga]

To that end I place greater value on what Nolan Smith, Tyler Thornton, Grayson Allen, Nate James, Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas, the Plumlee brothers, Amile Jefferson, et al. did for Duke University than what Jabari Parker, Austin Rivers, RJ Barrett, Cameron Reddish, Marvin Bagley, et al. did. In saying this I am not at all intending to slight the OADs as people, not one bit. But I am saying that taking everything into consideration, the value of what the four-year players bring to Duke University outweighs the value of what the OADs bring, no matter how much they contribute on the court during their one year at Duke.

There's an element of cherry picking in this argument, as, obviously, OAD did not exist before 2006. How would you feel about Duke basketball history (and what would the Cameron rafters look like) if the rule had been present in the "golden era?" So many of the Duke players who are remembered most fondly here would have gone OAD in a minute, given the chance. Duke, minus Laettner, Hurley, Redick, Battier, Gminski, Hill, Dawkins, Banks, etc etc, would have been a shadow of what it became if they had shunned "OAD's" in that earlier era. I love Grayson, Amile, Quinn, and Matt, but no way in the world they win the natty without Jahlil, Justise, and Tyus. I'd gladly reluctantly wave goodbye to them after one year in return for the joy of the Championship.

Duke has always recruited the best available players. That, and K's genius, are why we have had such an unbelievable run. And I love watching our OAD's in the NBA, and to me, they are as much a part of the Brotherhood as their predecessors.

[Steven43]

I know that many fans share this opinion. I guess what I’d have to say in response is that

a.) there have been plenty of four year players who are only at the school for basketball and put forth a nominal effort towards academics, they just do it over a longer period of time which I’m not sure makes it any “better.”

UC, I do not agree with your take at all. One does not earn a degree from Duke University — a grand achievement in my opinion — by putting forth a nominal academic effort.

[Reddevil]

There's an element of cherry picking in this argument, as, obviously, OAD did not exist before 2006. How would you feel about Duke basketball history (and what would the Cameron rafters look like) if the rule had been present in the "golden era?" So many of the Duke players who are remembered most fondly here would have gone OAD in a minute, given the chance. Duke, minus Laettner, Hurley, Redick, Battier, Gminski, Hill, Dawkins, Banks, etc etc, would have been a shadow of what it became if they had shunned "OAD's" in that earlier era. I love Grayson, Amile, Quinn, and Matt, but no way in the world they win the natty without Jahlil, Justise, and Tyus. I'd gladly reluctantly wave goodbye to them after one year in return for the joy of the Championship.

Duke has always recruited the best available players. That, and K's genius, are why we have had such an unbelievable run. And I love watching our OAD's in the NBA, and to me, they are as much a part of the Brotherhood as their predecessors.

I agree with much of this. The bolded part makes me realize that we would not have had that golden era. What made it golden? Did we care more about teams because we knew the players longer like in the pro days before it became rooting for laundry (free agency)? Perhaps when college kids start getting paid and older fans like me tune out, the whole thing will collapse. Maybe not. Maybe the younger crowd is ready to embrace what is coming. I just think the old model created an atmosphere that was unique and sadly gone. Sports has become dominated by what the fans want. Careful sports, the fans could get turned off in a hurry is all I'm saying. This has nothing to do with arguing right and wrong. Just saying the consequences that unfold will be interesting to witness.

[JasonEvans]

One does not earn a degree from Duke University — a grand achievement in my opinion — by putting forth a nominal academic effort.

I don't want to say too much, as this is not the place for it, but you are wrong. Let's just leave it at that.

[Steven43]

So many of the Duke players who are remembered most fondly here would have gone OAD in a minute, given the chance. Duke, minus Laettner, Hurley, Redick, Battier, Gminski, Hill, Dawkins, Banks, etc etc, would have been a shadow of what it became if they had shunned "OAD's" in that earlier era.
You have no way of knowing which players from three or four decades ago would have chosen to be OAD had they been given the opportunity. It’s a moot point for the purposes of this discussion.

Additionally, I would bet anything you would be willing to bet that the majority of the players you mentioned would not change a thing about their time at Duke and are extremely proud of having been four-year student-athletes who earned a Duke degree.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

There's a lot of very deep Duke blue shades being worn here today.

[sagegrouse]

I agree with much of this. The bolded part makes me realize that we would not have had that golden era. What made it golden? Did we care more about teams because we knew the players longer like in the pro days before it became rooting for laundry (free agency)? Perhaps when college kids start getting paid and older fans like me tune out, the whole thing will collapse. Maybe not. Maybe the younger crowd is ready to embrace what is coming. I just think the old model created an atmosphere that was unique and sadly gone. Sports has become dominated by what the fans want. Careful sports, the fans could get turned off in a hurry is all I'm saying. This has nothing to do with arguing right and wrong. Just saying the consequences that unfold will be interesting to witness.

Heck, it's worse than that. Heyman, Mullins, and Verga would have gone pro after their freshman years and never even played varsity ball.

[Indoor66]

Heck, it's worse than that. Heyman, Mullins, and Verga would have gone pro after their freshman years and never even played varsity ball.

And taken Marin and Lewis with them.

[UrinalCake]

UC, I do not agree with your take at all. One does not earn a degree from Duke University — a grand achievement in my opinion — by putting forth a nominal academic effort.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think that if you're a star basketball player you can absolutely graduate from Duke while putting forth a nominal academic effort. Perhaps we have different interpretations of the word "nominal." I'm not saying this is UNC where they just hand you a spot on the Dean's list for doing nothing. I do believe that our players go to class and do the required amount of work to legitimately pass those classes. I have a tremendous amount of respect for the amount of discipline and effort it must take to do even the minimum amount required while balancing the time commitments of playing ball. But I am not naive enough to think that every player deeply strives to excel in the classroom. Some of them do, but for the most part these guys are at Duke for basketball.

My original point was that when comparing four year players to OAD's, you can find examples on either end of the spectrum and so we shouldn't immediately assume that having OAD's means that none of our players care about academics. I still remember Justise Winslow being on ESPN the day after winning the title and having to cut his interview short because he was on his way to class. He had absolutely zero reason to care about his academics as his college career was effectively over, but he still did. He also described writing a paper on the bus ride home from regional final.

[SouthernDukie]

And taken Marin and Lewis with them.

And don't forget Abbott & Costello. :p

[Steven43]

My original point was that when comparing four year players to OAD's, you can find examples on either end of the spectrum and so we shouldn't immediately assume that having OAD's means that none of our players care about academics. I still remember Justise Winslow being on ESPN the day after winning the title and having to cut his interview short because he was on his way to class. He had absolutely zero reason to care about his academics as his college career was effectively over, but he still did. He also described writing a paper on the bus ride home from regional final.
UC, that’s why Duke doesn’t give one-year bachelor’s degrees. Because doing it for just one year doesn’t mean a whole lot.

[Steven43]

I don't want to say too much, as this is not the place for it, but you are wrong. Let's just leave it at that.

Jason, I respect you, but I do not respect this comment. First of all, you declaring something does not make it so. Second, all your comment does is diminish the aura of the great achievement of earning a Duke degree. I have no idea why you would want to do this.

[JasonEvans]

Jason, I respect you, but I do not respect this comment. First of all, you declaring something does not make it so. Second, all your comment does is diminish the aura of the great achievement of earning a Duke degree. I have no idea why you would want to do this.

I personally witnessed, when I was at Duke, that some students did not have to put in all that much effort to graduate. I don't want to get into the reasons for it, but I suspect there are many other folks who went to Duke over the years who saw the same thing.

I don't believe that statement at all diminishes the degree or the effort other Duke grads put in. It took some unique circumstances to be one of the folks who could get by on less than full effort and the vast, vast majority of us did not fall into those circumstances. I also personally witnessed some folks who could have gotten by on minimal effort but chose to embrace what the school had to offer instead.

I suspect you can read between the lines and understand what I am saying. I doubt many folks here find it all that surprising and many have seen it themselves as well.

-Jason "you or others can feel free to PM me if you want more clarification... let's just leave it at that" Evans

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I personally witnessed, when I was at Duke, that some students did not have to put in all that much effort to graduate. I don't want to get into the reasons for it, but I suspect there are many other folks who went to Duke over the years who saw the same thing.

I don't believe that statement at all diminishes the degree or the effort other Duke grads put in. It took some unique circumstances to be one of the folks who could get by on less than full effort and the vast, vast majority of us did not fall into those circumstances. I also personally witnessed some folks who could have gotten by on minimal effort but chose to embrace what the school had to offer instead.

I suspect you can read between the lines and understand what I am saying. I doubt many folks here find it all that surprising and many have seen it themselves as well.

-Jason "you or others can feel free to PM me if you want more clarification... let's just leave it at that" Evans

I agree with Jason. While I was at Duke there were plenty of my classmates who really did not work very hard for various reasons, some better than others. I had a few classes where I certainly did not try very hard. It really isn't that hard to create a schedule at Duke and graduate without putting in too much effort in those classes. Your GPA will likely reflect this lack of effort, but you can probably pass all of your classes and get the degree.

I'm not sure why Jason's comment seemed so offensive. Some of the students who were not working very hard were doing it for very good reasons - personal problems, focusing on one specific class or a thesis at the expense of other classes, etc. I had a semester where I was dealing with some significant personal issues and didn't focus very hard on academics, and my grades suffered as a result, and another semester where I was very focused on non-academic pursuits and my GPA also dipped slightly that semester. When I was applying to grad school a few years later and my Duke GPA was part of my application, part of me wished I had focused more on my grades, but the decision was definitely the right one for me at the time.

[sagegrouse]

I agree with Jason. While I was at Duke there were plenty of my classmates who really did not work very hard for various reasons, some better than others. I had a few classes where I certainly did not try very hard. It really isn't that hard to create a schedule at Duke and graduate without putting in too much effort in those classes. Your GPA will likely reflect this lack of effort, but you can probably pass all of your classes and get the degree.

I'm not sure why Jason's comment seemed so offensive. Some of the students who were not working very hard were doing it for very good reasons - personal problems, focusing on one specific class or a thesis at the expense of other classes, etc. I had a semester where I was dealing with some significant personal issues and didn't focus very hard on academics, and my grades suffered as a result, and another semester where I was very focused on non-academic pursuits and my GPA also dipped slightly that semester. When I was applying to grad school a few years later and my Duke GPA was part of my application, part of me wished I had focused more on my grades, but the decision was definitely the right one for me at the time.

Moreover, this appears to be true at almost every school. What is the purpose, for example, of "American Studies" at Yale?

[UrinalCake]

UC, that’s why Duke doesn’t give one-year bachelor’s degrees. Because doing it for just one year doesn’t mean a whole lot.

Yeah, but our players attend more classes in one year than UNC’s players do in four 8-)

[Steven43]

Yeah, but our players attend more classes in one year than UNC’s players do in four 8-)

Excellent point

[jimsumner]

There's an element of cherry picking in this argument, as, obviously, OAD did not exist before 2006. How would you feel about Duke basketball history (and what would the Cameron rafters look like) if the rule had been present in the "golden era?" So many of the Duke players who are remembered most fondly here would have gone OAD in a minute, given the chance. Duke, minus Laettner, Hurley, Redick, Battier, Gminski, Hill, Dawkins, Banks, etc etc, would have been a shadow of what it became if they had shunned "OAD's" in that earlier era. I love Grayson, Amile, Quinn, and Matt, but no way in the world they win the natty without Jahlil, Justise, and Tyus. I'd gladly reluctantly wave goodbye to them after one year in return for the joy of the Championship.

Duke has always recruited the best available players. That, and K's genius, are why we have had such an unbelievable run. And I love watching our OAD's in the NBA, and to me, they are as much a part of the Brotherhood as their predecessors.


Every one of these players could have gone to the NBA after their freshmen seasons, as did Corey Maggette in 1999. Magic Johnson was a contemporary of Gene Banks and Johnson went NBA after two college seasons. J.J. Redick stayed four years at Duke after Duke had lost eight players early to the NBA.

What's different is the age limit that precludes most high-schoolers from going directly to the NBA. But early NBA entry did not become a thing in 2006. It became a thing when Spencer Haywood won his famous court case in the early 1970s.

[BLPOG]

I agree with Jason. While I was at Duke there were plenty of my classmates who really did not work very hard for various reasons, some better than others. I had a few classes where I certainly did not try very hard. It really isn't that hard to create a schedule at Duke and graduate without putting in too much effort in those classes. Your GPA will likely reflect this lack of effort, but you can probably pass all of your classes and get the degree.

I don't really want to contribute to the persistence of this topic's distraction from 2020 Duke men's basketball recruiting, but I have a quibble with CrazyNotCrazie's post, specifically related to the section I put in boldface.

I don't like the "the" there. Many people can manage to get a degree from Duke without too strenuous an effort, but the selection of classes is constrained by the major. So they can get a degree, but maybe not a specific degree.

No engineers graduate without effort (and there aren't really that many majors that truly permit coasting, though there is considerable variability between majors in intra-major class difficult variability).

[BD80]

And don't forget Abbott & Costello. :p

Who?

[JasonEvans]

Who?

https://i.redd.it/czul4tjefdp01.jpg

[SouthernDukie]

https://i.redd.it/czul4tjefdp01.jpg

"What? I don't know."

UNC's fight song, I believe.

[bullettoothtony]

I agree with Jason. While I was at Duke there were plenty of my classmates who really did not work very hard for various reasons, some better than others. I had a few classes where I certainly did not try very hard. It really isn't that hard to create a schedule at Duke and graduate without putting in too much effort in those classes. Your GPA will likely reflect this lack of effort, but you can probably pass all of your classes and get the degree.

I'm not sure why Jason's comment seemed so offensive. Some of the students who were not working very hard were doing it for very good reasons - personal problems, focusing on one specific class or a thesis at the expense of other classes, etc. I had a semester where I was dealing with some significant personal issues and didn't focus very hard on academics, and my grades suffered as a result, and another semester where I was very focused on non-academic pursuits and my GPA also dipped slightly that semester. When I was applying to grad school a few years later and my Duke GPA was part of my application, part of me wished I had focused more on my grades, but the decision was definitely the right one for me at the time.



Duke '94, and I agree with Jason and Crazy. Not much to add. The feedback I've gotten over the years is that most comparable schools (Ivey League, Stanford, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, etc.) are like this. You can take advantage of the enormous resources at schools like this, get involved and challenge yourself, or you can coast, relatively speaking. I saw plenty of both.

[golfinesquire]

Moreover, this appears to be true at almost every school. What is the purpose, for example, of "American Studies" at Yale?

Exactly. You don't think that there are students at Harvard and Stanford that have figured out ways to skate by? Even where I went, which was a small school where sports occupy a far less important place to campus life then at the big schools and where admissions was fairly competitive, there were a few members of the football team who talked about being able to skate by for much of their time there.

[Kfanarmy]

UC, that’s why Duke doesn’t give one-year bachelor’s degrees. Because doing it for just one year doesn’t mean a whole lot.

Depends on what you do for a year, doesn't it? pleasure to pain, boredom to excitement....a lot can happen in a year.

[budwom]

Exactly. You don't think that there are students at Harvard and Stanford that have figured out ways to skate by? Even where I went, which was a small school where sports occupy a far less important place to campus life then at the big schools and where admissions was fairly competitive, there were a few members of the football team who talked about being able to skate by for much of their time there.

yup, attached should be the link to the story about the Stanford "easy class" list for athletes...coaches at every school know how to steer the guys who need steering (I am sure Stanford has more than their share of ardent students as well).
It's the nature of the beast

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2011/03/09/1046687/

[907bluedevils]

So how about those 2020 recruits? Seems like this has gotten off track.

[Kfanarmy]

So how about those 2020 recruits? Seems like this has gotten off track.

Ditto...there should be a BU__LOAD of old material on the "one and done" argument in general. If someone has a roll up of who Duke is recruiting and where they stand, that would be informative.

[budwom]

turnert (who absolutely knows his stuff) at TDD seems pretty confident about Coleman to Duke...

[English]

Ditto...there should be a BU__LOAD of old material on the "one and done" argument in general. If someone has a roll up of who Duke is recruiting and where they stand, that would be informative.

Might I recommend https://www.verbalcommits.com/schools/duke

ETA: Some of the detail information is questionable, but it provides a roll-up of the current roster, offers and commitments. Some of the ranking information (Scottie Barnes is No. 5 recruit but isn't a 5-star?; Ziaire Williams is a 5-star but is NR?), or positional designations (e.g., Matthew Hurt is a 3, not a 4?) could use some QA.

[SkyBrickey]

Back to 2020 recruiting. I hope we get all these guys - we will have room for them - but in order of importance given the likely roster going into next season, I'd personally put them in three tiers:

1) Walker Kessler - a very important recruit and our starting center unless Vernon Carey surprises us all and sticks around for his sophomore campaign

2) Coleman/Mark Williams - would love to get both, but at least one is critical to provide front-court depth - likely multi-year guys vs the other 3 OAD recruits on the board (without these guys, the returnees the following year might just be Joey Baker, Jeremy Roach, and DJ Steward with Roach and Steward as possible OADs - crazy thought!)

3) Ziaire Williams / Jonathan Kuminga - two highly rated but thin OAD SFs - either would almost certainly start alongside Jalen Johnson

Likely joining:
Goldwire, Roach (PG)
O'Connell, Steward (SG)
Baker, Johnson (SF)

[jimsumner]

Depends on what you do for a year, doesn't it? pleasure to pain, boredom to excitement...a lot can happen in a year.

Or perhaps the horse will sing.

[JasonEvans]

If someone has a roll up of who Duke is recruiting and where they stand, that would be informative.

Committed: PG - Jeremy Roach, SG - DJ Steward, SF - Jalen Johnson ::::: While one can quibble about positions (Johnson could probably play anywhere from the 2 to the 4, Steward is a combo guard who could slide to PG if needed), these three player comprise Duke's perimeter recruiting for 2020.

Roach was a borderline top 10 recruit before getting hurt as a junior and we are really still waiting to see how he plays as a senior. He is known as a great leader, a strong defender, and a very good passer/setup man. He's not a stud shooter, but can score when necessary. I'm not saying he will immediately remind you of Tre Jones, but their strengths and weaknesses are not all that different.
Stewart is top 30 kinda recruit, a great shooter from the outside and a solid ballhandler. He's a willing defender, but is not really strong yet and that limits his defensive ability.
Johnson is likely the best recruit Duke will bring in for 2020, a top 5 recruit who is almost certain to be a OAD lottery pick. He has tremendous skills for a guy his size with passing ability that makes his teammates better and a quality mid-range game. He's not known as a great long-range shooter, but seems to be improving that aspect of his game. If forced to compare him to a recent Dukie, I'd probably go with Jayson Tatum.

Top Prospects: Duke is considered the strong favorite for all three of these guys... but it is unclear if all three will commit to the same program.

PF/C - Walker Kessler - A top 15 recruit whose father and brother played at UGA and his uncle played at UGA and in the NBA. Family really, really values academics (father is a doctor). Walker has surprisingly already eliminated Georgia from his recruiting list. He has a dizzying array of post moves, including a lethal hook shot and is skilled enough to take 3-pointers who teams sag off him. Not an elite run-jump athlete, but a physical presence inside who is a willing defender.
C - Mark Williams - The 7-foot-tall brother of former Dukie Elizabeth Williams was once considered one of the top 5 players in his class (when he was a freshman). The scouts soured on him for a bit and he was barely a top 100 recruit but he has shown more and more skills to go with his impressive size lately and again appears to be a potential McDonald's All-American. He's an elite defender and rim protector with a great motor. He's mostly a dunker on offense, but seems to be developing a bit more of an offensive array. He attends IMG Academy, one of the top high school programs in the country, along with future Dukie Jalen Johnson.
PF/SF - Henry Coleman - This top 40 forward is due to announce him commitment in a week with all the gurus saying he will head to Durham. A physical player who is not afraid to mix it up for rebounds or on defense. Excels at finishing through contact with good spin moves in the lane, he is not yet a strong outside shooter. Likely to be someone in the Amile Jefferson or Lance Thomas kind of mold.



Also on the radar: While other names could crop up, the consensus seems to be that these two guys are the other players to whom Duke is paying the most attention at this point

SF - Ziaire Williams - A top 10 recruit who would rival Johnson for the title of best recruit coming to Durham if he chooses the Blue Devils. A top tier athlete who is an elite scorer, both inside and outside the 3-point line. Has a really nice pull-up jumper. Sadly, while Duke remains in the mix, the crystal ball says UNC and Stanford are the front-runners here.
PF/SF - Jonathan Kuminga - The top recruit in the 2021 class is said to be considering a reclassification into 2020. Many say he would be the #1 recruit in 2020 if he does choose to reclass (like RJ and Marvin, who each moved up a class and stayed at #1). Whichever class he picks, the consensus is that this loooong 6-9 freak is likely to head to Durham. Is extremely adept at getting into the lane and then using his length to finish with aplomb. A strong shot-blocker and defender too. His outside shooting has really improved and is making him borderline unguardable. At the elite Peach Jam tournament this week, he was the best player in attendance and notably shut down Duke bound Jalen Johnson in one game. Whenever he plays his one year of college ball, he will very much be in the running to be the #1 pick in the NBA draft.


--Jason "my dream is to get Kessler and at least 1 of Williams or Coleman... and then either Ziaire or Kuminga. That would be yet another incredible class that would clearly again put us in the national title chase" Evans

[ricks68]

UC, I do not agree with your take at all. One does not earn a degree from Duke University — a grand achievement in my opinion — by putting forth a nominal academic effort.

I did. In one sense, I regret I did not put forth even a nominal effort, but in another, my life turned out pretty darn well.

ricks

[bullettoothtony]

Committed: PG - Jeremy Roach, SG - DJ Steward, SF - Jalen Johnson ::::: While one can quibble about positions (Johnson could probably play anywhere from the 2 to the 4, Steward is a combo guard who could slide to PG if needed), these three player comprise Duke's perimeter recruiting for 2020.

Roach was a borderline top 10 recruit before getting hurt as a junior and we are really still waiting to see how he plays as a senior. He is known as a great leader, a strong defender, and a very good passer/setup man. He's not a stud shooter, but can score when necessary. I'm not saying he will immediately remind you of Tre Jones, but their strengths and weaknesses are not all that different.
Stewart is top 30 kinda recruit, a great shooter from the outside and a solid ballhandler. He's a willing defender, but is not really strong yet and that limits his defensive ability.
Johnson is likely the best recruit Duke will bring in for 2020, a top 5 recruit who is almost certain to be a OAD lottery pick. He has tremendous skills for a guy his size with passing ability that makes his teammates better and a quality mid-range game. He's not known as a great long-range shooter, but seems to be improving that aspect of his game. If forced to compare him to a recent Dukie, I'd probably go with Jayson Tatum.

Top Prospects: Duke is considered the strong favorite for all three of these guys... but it is unclear if all three will commit to the same program.

PF/C - Walker Kessler - A top 15 recruit whose father and brother played at UGA and his uncle played at UGA and in the NBA. Family really, really values academics (father is a doctor). Walker has surprisingly already eliminated Georgia from his recruiting list. He has a dizzying array of post moves, including a lethal hook shot and is skilled enough to take 3-pointers who teams sag off him. Not an elite run-jump athlete, but a physical presence inside who is a willing defender.
C - Mark Williams - The 7-foot-tall brother of former Dukie Elizabeth Williams was once considered one of the top 5 players in his class (when he was a freshman). The scouts soured on him for a bit and he was barely a top 100 recruit but he has shown more and more skills to go with his impressive size lately and again appears to be a potential McDonald's All-American. He's an elite defender and rim protector with a great motor. He's mostly a dunker on offense, but seems to be developing a bit more of an offensive array. He attends IMG Academy, one of the top high school programs in the country, along with future Dukie Jalen Johnson.
PF/SF - Henry Coleman - This top 40 forward is due to announce him commitment in a week with all the gurus saying he will head to Durham. A physical player who is not afraid to mix it up for rebounds or on defense. Excels at finishing through contact with good spin moves in the lane, he is not yet a strong outside shooter. Likely to be someone in the Amile Jefferson or Lance Thomas kind of mold.



Also on the radar: While other names could crop up, the consensus seems to be that these two guys are the other players to whom Duke is paying the most attention at this point

SF - Ziaire Williams - A top 10 recruit who would rival Johnson for the title of best recruit coming to Durham if he chooses the Blue Devils. A top tier athlete who is an elite scorer, both inside and outside the 3-point line. Has a really nice pull-up jumper. Sadly, while Duke remains in the mix, the crystal ball says UNC and Stanford are the front-runners here.
PF/SF - Jonathan Kuminga - The top recruit in the 2021 class is said to be considering a reclassification into 2020. Many say he would be the #1 recruit in 2020 if he does choose to reclass (like RJ and Marvin, who each moved up a class and stayed at #1). Whichever class he picks, the consensus is that this loooong 6-9 freak is likely to head to Durham. Is extremely adept at getting into the lane and then using his length to finish with aplomb. A strong shot-blocker and defender too. His outside shooting has really improved and is making him borderline unguardable. At the elite Peach Jam tournament this week, he was the best player in attendance and notably shut down Duke bound Jalen Johnson in one game. Whenever he plays his one year of college ball, he will very much be in the running to be the #1 pick in the NBA draft.


--Jason "my dream is to get Kessler and at least 1 of Williams or Coleman... and then either Ziaire or Kuminga. That would be yet another incredible class that would clearly again put us in the national title chase" Evans



Jason this is great info and much appreciated.

Given your description of Kessler as such an elite post scorer I would think he might be ranked higher. Not that he's ranked low by any means... inasmuch as he might be lower than expected, is the primary reason because he's not a great athlete?

[budwom]

The old "his family values education" canard never ceases to amuse...they generally "value" it for about nine months.

[BD80]

The old "his family values education" canard never ceases to amuse...they generally "value" it for about nine months.

Oh, it's longer than that, the recruiting process, and interviews with the press, starts in the freshman or sophomore year of high school.

[Steven43]

Oh, it's longer than that, the recruiting process, and interviews with the press, starts in the freshman or sophomore year of high school.

I think budwom was referring to the amount of time many of our recruits these days actually spend in a Duke classroom. But you probably knew what he meant. 😊

[JasonEvans]

Given your description of Kessler as such an elite post scorer I would think he might be ranked higher. Not that he's ranked low by any means... inasmuch as he might be lower than expected, is the primary reason because he's not a great athlete?

Well, I am not a scout and have seen very little of these players outside of Youtube highlights, but I suspect Kessler is one of those players where their skills and production scream top 10 player but their athleticism, physical build (length!!), and potential at the next level hurts their ranking a little bit.

The reality is that everyone considers Kessler the kind of player who will have an immediate impact in college and could be a dominant post player from day one. Whether he is ranked about #15 or #5, that isn't going to change.

[bullettoothtony]

Well, I am not a scout and have seen very little of these players outside of Youtube highlights, but I suspect Kessler is one of those players where their skills and production scream top 10 player but their athleticism, physical build (length!!), and potential at the next level hurts their ranking a little bit.

The reality is that everyone considers Kessler the kind of player who will have an immediate impact in college and could be a dominant post player from day one. Whether he is ranked about #15 or #5, that isn't going to change.


Makes sense... thanks again for the info/perspective.

[bullettoothtony]

Evan Daniels CB pick for Kessler--UNC.

If that happens it's huge.

[proelitedota]

Evan Daniels CB pick for Kessler--UNC.

If that happens it's huge.

Silver lining is that if Paolo reclassifies, we'll have a center position for him.

[DangerDevil]

Kessler verbally committed to UNC.

https://247sports.com/college/basketball/recruiting/Article/Walker-Kessler-North-Carolina-Commits-135999143/Amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[bullettoothtony]

This stings. Kessler actually said we'd recruited him the hardest.

Wow. I mean... losing him to any school would've been disappointing. Losing him to UNC is really tough to swallow.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

But the Cheats don’t recruit OADs...

[JasonEvans]

We can’t win em all, but this one stings.

There will be some competition for playing time for him as Brooks and Manley will both be seniors and Roy does love to play his seniors.

Good thing Duke was looking at other big men in this class. Mt. Williams just became an even bigger priority.

[proelitedota]

Keenan Worthington needs to spend the next season bulking up. If he is at least 230, he'll be seeing minutes at the 5.

[Dukehk]

Where did that commitment come from! Didn't see us losing out on kessler to the holes. Especially considering now they have two centres - but I guess that suits roys system to a tee.

Hopefully that means Williams and Coleman are coming down. Along with Zaire :)

[proelitedota]

Henry Coleman is 6'7/6'8 238 lb. Depending on the matchup he might see lots of minutes at the 5 in many major programs.

After years of having multiple 5* big men over 6'10, seems like our team composition is swinging back to being wing / guard heavy.

[frb]

surprising but turn the page. next man in.

Isaiah Todd and Dawson Garcia. Hunter Dickinson. One of these 3 in addition to Mark Williams. Get his commitment!

[proelitedota]

surprising but turn the page. next man in.

Isaiah Todd and Dawson Garcia. Hunter Dickinson. One of these 3 in addition to Mark Williams. Get his commitment!

Isaiah Todd is mostly definite going to UK. They're in the same boat as we're in when it comes to having no post players.

Henry Coleman is 6'8 240, and should be able to get minutes at the 5.

[BlueDevil16]

How much should we be concerned with being very weak at the 5 next year?

[SkyBrickey]

Well that’s a shocker. Any of you 18 year olds want to start at center for a preseason top 5 team? Hopefully Mark Williams and Coleman see this as good news and commit soon. Both would get major minutes next year.

[dukelifer]

How much should we be concerned with being very weak at the 5 next year?

I think we need to see how this year plays out.

[Troublemaker]

Ugh. Definitely a gut punch. While I'm sure, Duke being Duke, we'll come up with something good at center, it probably won't be a sweet-shooting 7-footer. I am excited that Jalen Johnson is already in the truck, but I was much more excited about the possibility of the Johnson-Kessler pairing in the frontcourt, which I viewed as very complementary. With Jalen being a weak shooter, it would've been nice to have Kessler pulling the opposing center away from the basket as Jalen made his drives to the rim. They were a perfect match, and in general, Kessler would've made every teammate on the floor better with his spacing.

And, obviously, we lost out to UNC, too, who will get to enjoy the big man spacing instead of us.

[UrinalCake]

Dang, it’s like Harrison Barnes all over again.

I can live with that.