MBB: 2018-19 Rotation/Minutes Thread

[kAzE]

Of course it's way too early to talk minutes, but as a matter of keeping these discussions (which have already started surfacing in several other threads) centralized in one place, I'm starting the thread now.

We're almost sure that we know the roster at this point (barring an unforeseen NBA departure from Marques Bolden in the next 6 days), so let's get to it.

I'll start it off with my prediction as of today:

Starters

C: Marques Bolden (20 mpg)
PF: Zion Williamson (28)
SF: Cam Reddish (34)
SG: R.J. Barrett (35)
PG: Tre Jones (32)

Bench
Javin DeLaurier (20)
Alex O'Connell (15)
Jack White (8)
Jordan Goldwire (4)
Everyone else combined (4)

[COYS]

Of course it's way too early to talk minutes, but as a matter of keeping these discussions (which have already started surfacing in several other threads) centralized in one place, I'm starting the thread now.

We're almost sure that we know the roster at this point (barring an unforeseen NBA departure from Marques Bolden in the next 6 days), so let's get to it.

I'll start it off with my prediction as of today:

Starters

C: Marques Bolden (20 mpg)
PF: Zion Williamson (28)
SF: Cam Reddish (34)
SG: R.J. Barret (35)
PG: Tre Jones (32)

Bench
Javin DeLaurier (20)
Alex O'Connell (15)
Jack White (8)
Jordan Goldwire (4)
Everyone else (4)

I'll go ahead and say it, I'm excited for this lineup. As long as Tre, RJ, and Cam can keep defenses honest from three (THE big question, to my eyes), that starting lineup has a fantastic combo of athleticism and talent. Also, I think the pieces are complementary. Despite RJ, Cam, and Zion all being hybrid forwards, they all have different skill-sets. An improved junior Javin can come in off the bench for Marques or he can fill in at a variety of other positions. Alex will definitely need to step up, big time. But he already showed more last season than many of us were expecting. Hopefully an offseason of work allows him to be a consistent contributor. Jack, Jordan, and even Vrank have opportunities to step up, too, as I would imagine that most of the minutes questions will be about the bench.

The team doesn't have much scoring punch off the bench outside of Alex, barring dramatic improvements from Javin, Jack, and Jordan. And the starting lineup will be inexperienced. But there's a ton of talent.

[CDu]

I love our versatility/switchability and athleticism. I'm nervous about our shooting and of course our defense.

My way-too-early guess is:

Bigs:
Bolden (25)
Williamson (30)
DeLaurier (20)
White (5)

Wings:
Reddish (33)
Barrett (34)
O'Connell (16)

Guards:
Jones (32)
Goldwire (4)

Rest of team (3)

[kAzE]

Whatever our coaches did with Tyus Jones when he came into the program, they need to do that with Tre. Tyus, believe it or not, also came to college with the same questions about his jump shot. If Tre, Cam, and RJ can collectively shoot 35% from three, I think that could be enough for us to be a top 3 offense on KenPom.

Defensively, I have no idea what to expect other than RJ Barrett will try really, really hard and get a lot of steals. I have heard good things about Tre's defense as well. It definitely doesn't hurt that our 2 starting guards have good defensive reputations already.

Cam and Zion are the big question marks on defense.

[CDu]

Whatever our coaches did with Tyus Jones when he came into the program, they need to do that with Tre. Tyus, believe it or not, also came to college with the same questions about his jump shot. If Tre, Cam, and RJ can collectively shoot 35% from three, I think that could be enough for us to be a top 3 offense on KenPom.

Defensively, I have no idea what to expect other than RJ Barrett will try really, really hard and get a lot of steals. I have heard good things about Tre's defense as well. It definitely doesn't hurt that our 2 starting guards have good defensive reputations already.

Cam and Zion are the big question marks on defense.

I agree about the freshmen. I think Barrett and Jones are most likely to be "ready" defensively, while Williamson and Reddish are the question marks.

As for the returning players, I'm most interested to see the development of DeLaurier and O'Connell. As of now, both will be asked to play bigger roles than last year. DeLaurier needs to show he can cut down on his foul rate and provide something offensively. O'Connell needs to get stronger, and to get better defensively. I'm pretty confident in what I expect from Bolden (good mobility, good shotblocker, not a great defensive rebounder).

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Not sure where to ask this question, but does anyone know when the incoming freshmen get to campus? I know we like to get them in as soon as possible, but many kids don't graduate HS until after the first summer session has started (looks like that is May 16). Particularly with so many newcomers playing key roles, we want them on campus working together immediately.

[kAzE]

Not sure where to ask this question, but does anyone know when the incoming freshmen get to campus? I know we like to get them in as soon as possible, but many kids don't graduate HS until after the first summer session has started (looks like that is May 16). Particularly with so many newcomers playing key roles, we want them on campus working together immediately.

The only times I can remember that this happened recently was with Derryck Thornton and Marvin Bagley, both of whom reclassified up a year. AFAIK, all 4 of the incoming freshmen this year are on track to graduate in the normal time frame.

As for playing together immediately, there have been some rumors about a possible team trip to Canada for an exhibition game or two (I can't confirm that yet), so if that happens, we might have a little bit of a head start with early practices and developing team chemistry. There's also the Maui Invitational this year to look forward to as another good early season bonding opportunity.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

The only times I can remember that this happened recently was with Derryck Thornton and Marvin Bagley, both of whom reclassified up a year. AFAIK, all 4 of the incoming freshmen this year are on track to graduate in the normal time frame.

As for playing together immediately, there have been some rumors about a possible team trip to Canada for an exhibition game or two (I can't confirm that yet), so if that happens, we might have a little bit of a head start with early practices and developing team chemistry. There's also the Maui Invitational this year to look forward to as another good early season bonding opportunity.

What I meant is that, for example, schools in the northeast do not graduate until June. So Cam might not be able to come for the first summer session because he will still be in HS, but will have no trouble being there for the second session. Schools in the south graduate earlier so Zion might be available by May 16. I don't recall what the rules are about how much formal coaching they can get in the summer but just being on campus, working out with the upperclassmen (and potentially alumni) leading informal practices is extremely helpful.

An international trip allowing us to start formal practices earlier will help even further.

[thedukelamere]

As for the returning players, I'm most interested to see the development of DeLaurier and O'Connell. As of now, both will be asked to play bigger roles than last year. DeLaurier needs to show he can cut down on his foul rate and provide something offensively. O'Connell needs to get stronger, and to get better defensively. I'm pretty confident in what I expect from Bolden (good mobility, good shotblocker, not a great defensive rebounder).


Would it be considered an impermissible benefit if Javin moved in with Amile in between the end of the semester and the start of summer practice?

Or would they need to hide a flyer somewhere on campus inviting all Duke students?

[UrinalCake]

Any time we do a minutes discussion thread I have to ask if we're talking about the season as a whole or what the rotation would be in a competitive game late in the season. Because those are two different things. This past season Goldwire averaged 6.6 minutes while Vrank averaged 4.7, but our rotation in actual games had them both playing zero.

[kAzE]

Any time we do a minutes discussion thread I have to ask if we're talking about the season as a whole or what the rotation would be in a competitive game late in the season. Because those are two different things. This past season Goldwire averaged 6.6 minutes while Vrank averaged 4.7, but our rotation in actual games had them both playing zero.

I think generally, we're talking about the season as a whole. If it was an NCAA tournament game, I'd put RJ down for 40.

[Kedsy]

Of course it's way too early to talk minutes, but as a matter of keeping these discussions (which have already started surfacing in several other threads) centralized in one place, I'm starting the thread now.

We're almost sure that we know the roster at this point (barring an unforeseen NBA departure from Marques Bolden in the next 6 days), so let's get to it.

I'll start it off with my prediction as of today:

Starters

C: Marques Bolden (20 mpg)
PF: Zion Williamson (28)
SF: Cam Reddish (34)
SG: R.J. Barrett (35)
PG: Tre Jones (32)

Bench
Javin DeLaurier (20)
Alex O'Connell (15)
Jack White (8)
Jordan Goldwire (4)
Everyone else combined (4)

I think I've mentioned this before, but for fun I extrapolated my 1-through-5 "scoring" method (that I use to predict Duke's rotation) to compare the talent/experience blend of each Duke team in the RSCI era, by taking each player's "rating" and multiplying it by the percentage of team minutes that player played. Here's what that table looks like:



Year Score NCAAT
2001 112.86 1
2004 120.70 4
2006 123.50 16
2009 127.76 16
2002 133.69 16
2010 138.01 1
2008 142.33 32
2011 148.61 16
2000 154.09 16
2003 155.17 16
2005 162.14 16
2015 168.87 1
2018 175.58 8
2017 176.05 32
2007 178.38 64
2013 183.29 8
2014 185.19 64
2012 188.23 64
2016 204.66 16


Obviously the whole of college basketball was different before and after the one-and-done rule went into place, so it's not entirely apples-to-apples (which may explain why the last seven seasons are all among the worst eight scores). But with the possible exceptions of 2008 and 2009 (which seemed less talented than the table would suggest) and 2013 (which seemed more talented than the table would suggest), it more-or-less matches up with what you might expect.

FWIW, the minute distribution suggested by kAzE would be approximately 154 on the above scale. That's about even with our 2000 team (which finished the regular season #1 in the country), though it's better than that if you assume the overall NCAA competition is worse now than it was before OAD started -- when top 20 veterans stuck around a lot more than they do today. A team score of 154 is also a fair amount better than any of Duke's last seven seasons, including 2015 and 2018.

So despite our youth next season, we appear to have reason for optimism.

[CDu]

Any time we do a minutes discussion thread I have to ask if we're talking about the season as a whole or what the rotation would be in a competitive game late in the season. Because those are two different things. This past season Goldwire averaged 6.6 minutes while Vrank averaged 4.7, but our rotation in actual games had them both playing zero.

I do mine based on the season as a whole. And I also take into account DNPs. So for me, Goldwire played 4.6 mpg this year and Vrankovic played 1.8 mpg. They accumulated a higher per-game average in games they played. But they didn't play in all the games (Vrank played in less than half).

[budwom]

I do mine based on the season as a whole. And I also take into account DNPs. So for me, Goldwire played 4.6 mpg this year and Vrankovic played 1.8 mpg. They accumulated a higher per-game average in games they played. But they didn't play in all the games (Vrank played in less than half).

yup, this stuff is misused too often, gotta divide minutes by games available, not games played...

[mattman91]

I'm guessing we aren't pursuing any other grad transfers? Seems like we could use one more solid three point specialist.

Then again, in 2015 8 was enough.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I love our versatility/switchability and athleticism. I'm nervous about our shooting and of course our defense.

My way-too-early guess is:

Bigs:
Bolden (25)
Williamson (30)
DeLaurier (20)
White (5)

Wings:
Reddish (33)
Barrett (34)
O'Connell (16)

Guards:
Jones (32)
Goldwire (4)

Rest of team (3)

Because I don't want to reformat my own, I'll just copy, paste, and modify:

Bigs:
Bolden (18)
Williamson (28)
DeLaurier (22)
White (7)

Wings:
Reddish (34)
Barrett (36)
O'Connell (18)

Guards:
Jones (30)
Goldwire (3)

Rest of team (4)

I'm not bullish on Bolden. I think DeLaurier will be like Jon Scheyer in his sophomore year: won't start but will play more minutes than some starters. I think Coach K rides Barrett for as many minutes as possible with Reddish a close second (because I'm still banking on Reddish being the ultimate glue guy). I think Jones plays as many minutes as Duval (this year).

[proelitedota]

I am going to make a wild prediction. I think that Delaurier will average more minutes than either Zion or Bolden. He is too versatile defensively to keep off the floor.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I am going to make a wild prediction. I think that Delaurier will average more minutes than either Zion or Bolden. He is too versatile defensively to keep off the floor.

He needs to work on his post game, cut back on his jump shooting, shot fouling, and SHOT goal tending. If those 4 things happen over the summer, I would agree with you.

[budwom]

Refs would have to give DeLaurier nine fouls to keep him on the floor that much...

[flyingdutchdevil]

Refs would have to give DeLaurier nine fouls to keep him on the floor that much...

And give the opposition 6 automatic points for all the goaltends

[hallcity]

8342

[DukieInBrasil]

With Joey Baker now on board, this discussion needs to account for him. He's a wild-card in that we don't know if he's actually going to play or red-shirt. My hunch is that he'll play, because he has a reputation as a good shooter, both 3FG and FT. Those are both qualities that will undoubtedly get his number called upon a few times when either the team as a whole can't hit 3s, or if in a tight end of game situation and we need to hit FTs to keep the lead.
Having said all that, i'm not sure what Baker brings to the table that AOC doesn't. And with the wing-forward spot being very heavily loaded this year, there may not be a need for another one.
This year's team will have decent balance in terms of positions, if you even believe in those anymore. We've got one top-notch PG and a back-up who showed that he should be able to handle being the backup, as well as a second backup who had a "minute of a lifetime" play in one of his only appearances. We've got 3 guys who can handle the traditional PF/C spot. And we've got a never-ending supply of SG/SF/hybrid-F players: Reddish, Williamson, Barrett, AOC, J-White, J-Rob, and now J-Baker. Should be fun.
my guesses:
Jones - 32
Barrett - 29
Reddish - 30
Williamson -29
Bolden - 23
DeLaurier -21
AOC - 16
J-White - 8
J-Gold - 6
J-Rob - 2
J-Bake - 3
others - <1

[kAzE]

With Joey Baker now on board, this discussion needs to account for him. He's a wild-card in that we don't know if he's actually going to play or red-shirt. My hunch is that he'll play, because he has a reputation as a good shooter, both 3FG and FT. Those are both qualities that will undoubtedly get his number called upon a few times when either the team as a whole can't hit 3s, or if in a tight end of game situation and we need to hit FTs to keep the lead.
Having said all that, i'm not sure what Baker brings to the table that AOC doesn't. And with the wing-forward spot being very heavily loaded this year, there may not be a need for another one.
This year's team will have decent balance in terms of positions, if you even believe in those anymore. We've got one top-notch PG and a back-up who showed that he should be able to handle being the backup, as well as a second backup who had a "minute of a lifetime" play in one of his only appearances. We've got 3 guys who can handle the traditional PF/C spot. And we've got a never-ending supply of SG/SF/hybrid-F players: Reddish, Williamson, Barrett, AOC, J-White, J-Rob, and now J-Baker. Should be fun.
my guesses:
Jones - 32
Barrett - 29
Reddish - 30
Williamson -29
Bolden - 23
DeLaurier -21
AOC - 16
J-White - 8
J-Gold - 6
J-Rob - 2
J-Bake - 3
others - <1

If Baker only plays 3 minutes a game, that's a waste of a year of eligibility, and he should red shirt. If he's good enough to provide 10 minutes a game (which he could be . . . he seems like he'd be ranked higher than AOC coming in, and AOC was a good backup guard last year), then he should play.

[DukieInBrasil]

If Baker only plays 3 minutes a game, that's a waste of a year of eligibility, and he should red shirt. If he's good enough to provide 10 minutes a game (which he could be . . . he seems like he'd be ranked higher than AOC coming in, and AOC was a good backup guard last year), then he should play.

I don't disagree, but K has burned redshirts for less than 120 minutes of playing time before (assuming 40 games). Assuming J-Bake doesn't burn (ba-duh tching!) his redshirt, i can definitely see a situation in which he plays half (or fewer) of the games, but in which he would be seen as useful for other games. IOW, i could see him playing an average of >6 mpg in games he plays, but in which he doesn't play in half the games.
Seems like all of that hinges on how well the newcomers + AOC, and to a lesser extent J-White, J-Rob and J-Gold (Los Js Amigos), shoot the 3.

[golfinesquire]

I don't disagree, but K has burned redshirts for less than 120 minutes of playing time before (assuming 40 games). Assuming J-Bake doesn't burn (ba-duh tching!) his redshirt, i can definitely see a situation in which he plays half (or fewer) of the games, but in which he would be seen as useful for other games. IOW, i could see him playing an average of >6 mpg in games he plays, but in which he doesn't play in half the games.
Seems like all of that hinges on how well the newcomers + AOC, and to a lesser extent J-White, J-Rob and J-Gold (Los Js Amigos), shoot the 3.

Is it that K has "burned" redshirts or that the players who probably should have redshirted did not want to and so he played them only what they deserved, which was mop-up minutes (which was why the redshirt would have been a good idea)? I know people point to Vrank, but I thought he made it clear that he did not want to redshirt.

[DukieInBrasil]

Is it that K has "burned" redshirts or that the players who probably should have redshirted did not want to and so he played them only what they deserved, which was mop-up minutes (which was why the redshirt would have been a good idea)? I know people point to Vrank, but I thought he made it clear that he did not want to redshirt.

I've read the same regarding Vrank as well. As for the rest, i dunno, K has never felt the need to explain anything to me.