Carter considering coming back?!?!?! (UPDATE: He went to the NBA)

[kAzE]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23114991/wendell-carter-jr-duke-blue-devils-undecided-nba-draft-parents-say

So does anybody actually buy this? Kylia goes off on how college basketball is just a huge con less than 2 weeks ago, and now she is encouraging Wendell to stay at Duke?

That would be a dream come true (I <3 Wendell Carter), but come on. Let's be real. He should go to the NBA.

[UrinalCake]

Must... resist urge... to allow myself to hope... for the impossible....

[DukeTrinity11]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23114991/wendell-carter-jr-duke-blue-devils-undecided-nba-draft-parents-say

So does anybody actually buy this? Kylia goes off on how college basketball is just a huge con less than 2 weeks ago, and now she is encouraging Wendell to stay at Duke?

That would be a dream come true (I <3 Wendell Carter), but come on. Let's be real. He should go to the NBA.

I think that Elite 8 loss affected Carter and his mom emotionally. I honestly believe there's hope he"ll come back because of that screwjob by the refs.

[simplyluvin]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23114991/wendell-carter-jr-duke-blue-devils-undecided-nba-draft-parents-say

So does anybody actually buy this? Kylia goes off on how college basketball is just a huge con less than 2 weeks ago, and now she is encouraging Wendell to stay at Duke?

That would be a dream come true (I <3 Wendell Carter), but come on. Let's be real. He should go to the NBA.

At the beginning of the season, I truly thought Wendell would be most likely to return among our OAD candidates because he is a scholar at heart. The fact that he seriously contemplated going to Harvard over Duke shows that. While I hate to get my hopes up, I am not entirely surprised about his wavering here. I think he goes...reminds me of Jabari's hesitation before he ultimately declared.

[kAzE]

At the beginning of the season, I truly thought Wendell would be most likely to return among our OAD candidates because he is a scholar at heart. The fact that he seriously contemplated going to Harvard over Duke shows that. While I hate to get my hopes up, I am not entirely surprised about his wavering here. I think he goes...reminds me of Jabari's hesitation before he ultimately declared.

Sure, he considered it (and his mom wanted him to go to Harvard), but he still chose the best basketball decision, which was Duke. I think this is the same thing all over again. He'll hem and haw over the decision, but will end up doing the best basketball thing once again. I think a few of our past OADs have done the same song and dance. As you said, Jabari comes to mind.

Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE if he came back for another year. He was by far my personal favorite of the 2017 freshmen class, and IMO he was the most important player on the team (Marvin is more talented, but Wendell was more key to our success). I think Wendell's foul trouble against KU was the #1 reason we missed out on the Final Four.

But this is a charade. He's going pro.

[azzefkram]

I would love a year 2 of Wendell but go young man. Your talent and gift has a short and delicate shelf life.

[sagegrouse]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23114991/wendell-carter-jr-duke-blue-devils-undecided-nba-draft-parents-say

So does anybody actually buy this? Kylia goes off on how college basketball is just a huge con less than 2 weeks ago, and now she is encouraging Wendell to stay at Duke?

That would be a dream come true (I <3 Wendell Carter), but come on. Let's be real. He should go to the NBA.

Mirabile dictu -- Mom wants him to stay in school -- Dad wants him to go.


"I told him I wanted him to come back [to school]," Carter's mom, Kylia, told The Undefeated. "His jaw dropped. It has nothing to do with basketball. It's about you. It's about who he is. He is a student at core. Yes, he is a great basketball player. But he's an 18-year-old kid. He is having a tug with a heart and his mind. I don't feel for him because I think it's good for him that he is going through this struggle. It's his decision. He has to live with it."

Wendell Carter Sr. said it is his son's decision, but "I have always tried to keep Wendell ahead of any curve. ... I think it would be a good decision for him to go."

I agree exactly with his Mom's words. The NBA is no place for a 19-YO with so much intellectual interest and talent. The money will be there (and so is Lloyd's of London ad interim).

Come back, Wendell! Come back to Duke for one more year.

[Indoor66]

If mama ain't happy, no one is happy.

[UrinalCake]

I remember Luol Deng saying how much he loved Duke and wanted to stay, right before he declared. Then a year later he talked about how much he missed Duke and wished he could have stayed. It’s like being kicked in the crotch repeatedly.

[heartofgold]

I agree exactly with his Mom's words.



We should pause to appreciate what Mom is saying here - that coming back would make him a better person and improve his quality of life. It's refreshing to hear that it isn't always just about the money. In fact, we as fans have no idea how much the money gets in the way of living a truly happy life and what it does to the character of these kids being millionaires before they are even 20. If we really care about these kids, I don't think we should just automatically say leaving is the right thing to do so you can make your millions even faster...

[Sir Stealth]

Between Mama Carter's quotes about college basketball after the tourney and favoring staying in college in this article I'm feeling a little dizzy....My guess is that she still doesn't think a required stop in college basketball makes sense for a top pro prospect; however, she's also the one who has seen the most how intelligent, academically oriented, well-rounded, etc. Wendell has been his whole life, and is now fighting to highlight those qualities again as the world starts to increasingly see him exclusively for his basketball ability. I still can't imagine there's any way he stays, but it did take me 'til pretty late in the game to accept that UVA could conceivably lose to UMBC, so who knows....

[JasonEvans]

Hang on... the same mom who said college basketball is a "con" and talked about how it was unfair that he was forced to go to even one year of college is now pushing her son to come back to school? Whaaaat?

I will say this -- in the current top-heavy NBA draft class, Carter is seen as somewhere between the 8th and 12th pick in the draft. If he came back, he would likely be seen as the #2 or #3 pick in the weaker 2019 draft class (as of right now, I suspect only RJ Barrett would be higher on draft boards). The difference in being the #8 pick in 2018 ($10.4 mil in 3 year salary) versus being even #2 in 2019 ($18.7 mil over the first 3 years) is pretty darn significant. Now, obviously the impact of being a free agent a year earlier and earning zero dollars this year versus earning $2.9 mil (first year salary of the #8 pick) makes it sorta hard for the guy who stays in school to make it up, but if you get drafted several lottery picks higher after staying school, I think a solid financial argument can be made that sticking around to enhance your already high draft stock is a good move. Plus, if you are eventually going to be signing big new contracts down the road as a NBA star then these rookie dollars are pretty inconsequential.

The real risk, of course, is that you come back and don't improve your draft stock or your get hurt. Those are the disasters -- as someone like Josh McRoberts or James Michael McAdoo can attest after they returned to school despite lottery draft grades and saw their stock plummet into the 2nd round (though McJosh did quite nicely once he showed some NBA talent and JMM at least got a couple rings from the Warriors as well as $2+ mil in NBA salary thus far).

I can't even begin to imagine Carter will do it, but if he got a good insurance policy that protected him from a perilous draft plunge due to injury, it is not a terrible financial decision.

-Jason "24 hours ago, I would have said there was a 0% chance of him coming back... I now give it a solid 1-2% chance... woo hoo!!" Evans

[Matches]

C'mon folks, don't do this to yourselves. He's not coming back.

[UrinalCake]

I guess I would reconcile the mom’s comments as such: earlier her quotes said that going to college does not make sense as a business decision. From a purely financial standpoint, the risk of getting injured and the lack of income does not outweigh the educational experience, hence the “all con” comment. But if Wendell decides to return, it would not be a business decision. It would be done for other reasons - personal development, gaining more of an education, etc. So those two notions can coexist.

It’s also possible that when the earlier comments were made, emotions were running high after the loss to Kansas, and things have settled down and the family can analyze things more objectively.

This is just me trying to make sense of things, and also to create a reason for him to come back. It’s more likely he goes anyways, and these comments were made to put forth the narrative that he is a kid who cares deeply about education (just like the idea of him going to Harvard).

[Matches]

This is just me trying to make sense of things, and also to create a reason for him to come back. It’s more likely he goes anyways, and these comments were made to put forth the narrative that he is a kid who cares deeply about education (just like the idea of him going to Harvard).

This. Exactly this.

Whoever compared it to Jabari was spot on. It's the exact same thing. It's just PR and brand-building.

[Troublemaker]

Sure, he considered it (and his mom wanted him to go to Harvard), but he still chose the best basketball decision, which was Duke. I think this is the same thing all over again. He'll hem and haw over the decision, but will end up doing the best basketball thing once again. I think a few of our past OADs have done the same song and dance. As you said, Jabari comes to mind.


I remember Luol Deng saying how much he loved Duke and wanted to stay, right before he declared. Then a year later he talked about how much he missed Duke and wished he could have stayed. It’s like being kicked in the crotch repeatedly.

Yep.

I certainly would not get my hopes up.



This is just me trying to make sense of things, and also to create a reason for him to come back. It’s more likely he goes anyways, and these comments were made to put forth the narrative that he is a kid who cares deeply about education (just like the idea of him going to Harvard).


This. Exactly this.

Whoever compared it to Jabari was spot on. It's the exact same thing. It's just PR and brand-building.

You guys have the proper cynicism about this, imo.

[Duke95]

I'm happy that Wendell Carter chose Duke as the destination to spend his one year as a college basketball player.

[JasonEvans]

if you get drafted several lottery picks higher after staying school, I think a solid financial argument can be made that sticking around to enhance your already high draft stock is a good move.

It is worth noting that this does happen with some degree of regularity. At this time last year, Miles Bridges made almost the exact same decision to return to Michigan State. Seen as a late-lottery pick, he came back to school expecting to have a huge season and be launched into the top of the lottery. It did not work out for him though it was not a disaster either as he is again seen as a mid-lottery pick (he probably goes 2-4 spots higher this year than he would have a year ago).

Blake Griffin did this back when he was at Oklahoma -- projected as a mid-late lottery guy he came back to school and dominated and was the #1 pick in the next draft. He's gone on to make huuuuge money and I am certain he does not regret for a moment his decision to take a second season at Oklahoma (one of the best seasons in the history of that program). Harrison Barnes also chose to return to school rather than being a mid-lottery pick. His stock did not improve either, but it did not go down and he too has made many many millions in the NBA since then.

My mind is blanking at the moment. I am sure there are many other guys who have done it. I also feel like Carter's situation is different from someone like McRoberts or JMM who were going to be drafted in the lottery based largely on potential, not on actual game results as they did not play a ton as a freshman. When they came back and were not nearly as dominant as expected in their soph campaigns, their stock fell because the potential label had worn off. Carter is in a different boat as he has already shown he is among the most skilled big men in the country. No reason to expect his stock to falter if he chooses to come back.

-Jason "he'd be preseason player of the year, that's for sure... am I starting to talk myself into this?!?!" Evans

[gam7]

Sure, he considered it (and his mom wanted him to go to Harvard), but he still chose the best basketball decision, which was Duke. I think this is the same thing all over again. He'll hem and haw over the decision, but will end up doing the best basketball thing once again. I think a few of our past OADs have done the same song and dance. As you said, Jabari comes to mind.

...

But this is a charade. He's going pro.

This is my view exactly. But his parents' perspectives are really interesting.

[Truth&Justise]

Everyone has already covered why he's not coming back. But I'll also add this, given the thread's title:

Betteridge's law of headlines (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines) is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

I can't state enough how much I loved watching Wendell play. He's just sublime on the court. He's got amazing talent and an unbelievable basketball-brain. And those are the reasons he'll make some NBA team very happy next season.

[uh_no]

Hang on... the same mom who said college basketball is a "con" and talked about how it was unfair that he was forced to go to even one year of college is now pushing her son to come back to school? Whaaaat?


I don't think the two statements are necessarily incompatible....though it is a stretch to give her the benefit of doubt. One can believe that college basketball on the whole is a con for players gunning for the NBA, while also believing that there are other factors than gunning for the NBA which may drive someone's decision....as could be the case here.

[WHOneedsSOX]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23114991/wendell-carter-jr-duke-blue-devils-undecided-nba-draft-parents-say

So does anybody actually buy this? Kylia goes off on how college basketball is just a huge con less than 2 weeks ago, and now she is encouraging Wendell to stay at Duke?

That would be a dream come true (I <3 Wendell Carter), but come on. Let's be real. He should go to the NBA.

Could this be why EJ Montgomery didn't choose Duke? Or as some have said, why Duke decided to pull back on recruiting him?

I'd still be surprised if he came back though. If he actually came back because of academic reasons then wouldn't it make sense to stay for 3 years and get his degree?

[kAzE]

-Jason "24 hours ago, I would have said there was a 0% chance of him coming back... I now give it a solid 1-2% chance... woo hoo!!" Evans

Obligatory Dumb & Dumber meme:

8308

[Bluedog]

I can't even begin to imagine Carter will do it, but if he got a good insurance policy that protected him from a perilous draft plunge due to injury, it is not a terrible financial decision.

Duke already gets insurance policies for its top players and picks up the tab. Coach K has said as much with his meetings with donors.

[UrinalCake]

My mind is blanking at the moment. I am sure there are many other guys who have done it.

Alonzo Trier came back, he’s probably projected about the same as he would have been last year. Also Marcus Smart. And that guy from Texas A&M who had that awesome windmill dunk on the CHeats, he was a projected lotto pick last year and goes a couple spots higher now.

The flip side is William Avery, who left too early, was never given a real shot as he was the third PG off the bench for a couple seasons and then faded away. Had he stayed, he would have been drafted higher and therefore the team would have been committed to developing him. I think that point is often lost when people say you can develop in the pros faster than in college - if you’re a second round pick grinding in the D league, then your team doesn’t really care about developing you.

I agree with you that there is a big difference between guys who are physical freaks and would be drafted as freshmen based on potential, versus more skilled players like Carter (who is also very athletic). James Michael MacAdoo actually had some good comments about this, he said if he had left after his freshman year he would have been a high pick, but he would have been out of the league before his second contract because he hadn’t learned how to play.

[sagegrouse]

C'mon folks, don't do this to yourselves. He's not coming back.

I dunno. If K passed on E.J. Montgomery, it may have been because of Wendell's return.

[kAzE]

I dunno. If K passed on E.J. Montgomery, it may have been because of Wendell's return.

The speculation was that Duke eased up on Montgomery to chase a grad transfer, which by all indications means Joe Cremo. But it was just speculation after all.

[CDu]

The speculation was that Duke eased up on Montgomery to chase a grad transfer, which by all indications means Joe Cremo. But it was just speculation after all.

That speculation never made sense to me. Duke had the ability to get both Montgomery and a grad transfer. The scholarship Robinson got this year and last were not guaranteed, as Robinson was a walk-on. Robinson knew coming in (he chose Duke without any promise of a scholarship) that he would only be eligible for a scholarship if they had one left over. I can’t imagine Duke would turn down a top-10 recruit to honor a scholarship that was never promised in the first place.

Not saying the Montgomery recruitment has anything to do with Carter. Just that I can’t imagine it has anything to do with Cremo.

[WiJoe]

Don't
get
your
hopes
up.

DON'T

[4Gen]

K has said Wendell is one of the smartest players he has ever coached.

There's that.

[CDu]

As for Carter, I certainly can't say I think he'll be back, even after this article. Not remotely so. That being said, I can certainly make a reasonable argument as to why one could choose to return. It goes something like this:

1. He'd be the 5th big taken in this draft (behind Ayton, Bagley, Jackson, and Bamba), taken in the back half of the lottery. Next year, he'd be the #1 big, taken probably top 3. That's a multi-million dollar difference in salary over the first 3 years - perhaps as much as $8-10 million difference. And I don't think that an extra year in college means one fewer years in the NBA (I think NBA years are harder on players physically than college years), so I don't know that it would necessarily be lost salary on the back end. We could certainly quibble about present value of money, but it's far from certain that going will mean more present value for money in this case.
2. If he's happy in school, staying has value.
3. If he isn't ready emotionally, staying has value.
4. If he wants a mulligan on his NCAA tourney experience, staying has value.

Again, I STRONGLY suspect he's going pro. I'd be quite shocked if he came back. This article does nothing to change that. But I could certainly understand a decision to come back.

He should do whatever will make him happiest. I have no idea what that is for him though. I'll be good with whatever it is.

[budwom]

Don't
get
your
hopes
up.

DON'T

Precisely. It's April 11, not April 1.

[cato]

When players say they struggle with this decision, I believe them. It is Wendell’s life, and he only gets one shot. But like just about everyone who has struggled with the decision, I think he will leave.

[kAzE]

That speculation never made sense to me. Duke had the ability to get both Montgomery and a grad transfer. The scholarship Robinson got this year and last were not guaranteed, as Robinson was a walk-on. Robinson knew coming in (he chose Duke without any promise of a scholarship) that he would only be eligible for a scholarship if they had one left over. I can’t imagine Duke would turn down a top-10 recruit to honor a scholarship that was never promised in the first place.

Not saying the Montgomery recruitment has anything to do with Carter. Just that I can’t imagine it has anything to do with Cremo.

My hunch is that probably involved playing time. Everyone knows Coach K plays about 7 guys, MAYBE 8.

With just Barrett, Williamson, Reddish, Jones, Bolden, DeLaurier, and O'Connell, that's already 7. I don't really know that we had room for both (Montgomery & Cremo), since both guys would justifiably be looking to play rotation minutes.

But again, it was speculation. Not something to put much stock in to begin with. FWIW, it does seem to be accepted that Duke backed off of Montgomery, though.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

i would love a year 2 of wendell but go young man. Your talent and gift has a short and delicate shelf life.

this ^^^^......

[UrinalCake]

I thought Cremo was being pursued as a replacement for Trent. Is that crazy?

[dukebluesincebirth]

I know it will likely not happen, but let me dream... Zion on one block and Wendell on the other? Phewwww weeee!!! Let it be!

[CDu]

My hunch is that probably involved playing time. Everyone knows Coach K plays about 7 guys, MAYBE 8.

With just Barrett, Williamson, Reddish, Jones, Bolden, DeLaurier, and O'Connell, that's already 7. I don't really know that we had room for both (Montgomery & Cremo), since both guys would justifiably be looking to play rotation minutes.

But again, it was speculation. Not something to put much stock in to begin with. FWIW, it does seem to be accepted that Duke backed off of Montgomery, though.

If pressed to guess, my guess would be that Duke backed off after "knowing" that Bolden would return. Because in that scenario, we'd have a plenty deep frontcourt with Bolden, Williamson, and DeLaurier, and Vrankovic, White, and Robinson available for spot minutes.

But, even that is pure speculation.

[Saratoga2]

Sure, he considered it (and his mom wanted him to go to Harvard), but he still chose the best basketball decision, which was Duke. I think this is the same thing all over again. He'll hem and haw over the decision, but will end up doing the best basketball thing once again. I think a few of our past OADs have done the same song and dance. As you said, Jabari comes to mind.

Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE if he came back for another year. He was by far my personal favorite of the 2017 freshmen class, and IMO he was the most important player on the team (Marvin is more talented, but Wendell was more key to our success). I think Wendell's foul trouble against KU was the #1 reason we missed out on the Final Four.

But this is a charade. He's going pro.

It is difficult to understand all the drivers involved. On the one hand, there is a pile of money awaiting him in the NBA , and on the other hand he may genuinely have achievements he would like to make that require an academic education. Best to let him and his family to think it through and give us, his fans, their reasoning for their decision. Whatever is decided, it doesn't end his chance at either the NBA or of going back for further education. Maybe he wants to become a doctor or a political figure instead of a rich athlete. From what I understand he is very intelligent and will make the right decision for him.

[dudog84]

I think the main argument for going is early is the possibility of getting hurt. In fact, I think the rigors of the game is why so many of these young guys are getting hurt their first few years in the NBA, their bodies aren't ready for it. Very very few LeBron bodies out there. In college, you've got a max of 38-40 40-minute games. The NBA base is 82 48-minute games. A decent playoff run adds another 20%. Plus you're banging in the lane against men, not other kids.

The second argument is getting past the rookie contract to the big money. But if your body is not ready and you are hurt for any significant portion of your rookie contract, that big money may not be so big. Wendell is probably going to make over $200 million in NBA salary. Is another $20 million that big of a difference? You can only spend so much (yes, I know how many pro athletes go broke, they seem to find a way).

But don't endorsement dollars have the potential to top salary? If you come back, are in the conversation for NPOY, build your brand, prepare your game, might you not make up that $20 million in 'lost' salary? And enjoy your life more if you like college?

I graduated a semester early, and still consider it the biggest mistake of my life (that and buying a Nehru jacket...I wonder if anyone will get the reference). You're only 20 once. He may not want to spend the better part of 7 months a year sitting in hotel rooms. Yes, if education is important to him he can always come back and get his degree. But I think sitting in a college classroom at 40 would be weird.

Some of these kids agonize over the decision. But it's a nice decision to have. Shouldn't be agonizing, follow your heart and mind and go with it. Wendell should do what he wants, not what Mom or Dad wants. That's often tough for a 19-year-old.

While I disagree strongly with the one-and-done system, I wish Wendell the best whichever decision he makes.

[LasVegas]

People sure seem to know a lot about what Wendell WILL do without ever meeting him or talking with him. Color me impressed!

Like a few posters have pointed out, coming back is a less of a risk for him in comparison to someone like JMM. I would be willing to bet a large sum of money that Wendell would improve his stock.

I don’t really think there is a bad decision here to make. Either route is great.

[Messimorgan17]

I dunno. If K passed on E.J. Montgomery, it may have been because of Wendell's return.


In the back of my mind, when Jordan Tucker announced he was transferring, I thought, perhaps Duke had a real chance at Zion. Duke pursued Tucker because it lost Knox to Kentucky...

We can only dream but what a dream.

[cato]

I remember Luol Deng saying how much he loved Duke and wanted to stay, right before he declared. Then a year later he talked about how much he missed Duke and wished he could have stayed. It’s like being kicked in the crotch repeatedly.

All of this can be true, and yet people could still make the same decision.

Heck, I would have loved to stay at Duke beyond my four years. But life after school beckoned.

[Acymetric]

As for Carter, I certainly can't say I think he'll be back, even after this article. Not remotely so. That being said, I can certainly make a reasonable argument as to why one could choose to return. It goes something like this:

1. He'd be the 5th big taken in this draft (behind Ayton, Bagley, Jackson, and Bamba), taken in the back half of the lottery. Next year, he'd be the #1 big, taken probably top 3. That's a multi-million dollar difference in salary over the first 3 years - perhaps as much as $8-10 million difference. And I don't think that an extra year in college means one fewer years in the NBA (I think NBA years are harder on players physically than college years), so I don't know that it would necessarily be lost salary on the back end. We could certainly quibble about present value of money, but it's far from certain that going will mean more present value for money in this case.
2. If he's happy in school, staying has value.
3. If he isn't ready emotionally, staying has value.
4. If he wants a mulligan on his NCAA tourney experience, staying has value.

Again, I STRONGLY suspect he's going pro. I'd be quite shocked if he came back. This article does nothing to change that. But I could certainly understand a decision to come back.

He should do whatever will make him happiest. I have no idea what that is for him though. I'll be good with whatever it is.

I also suspect he will be gone, but would love to have him back. With regard to your comment about NBA years, I think that makes a lot of sense. You might even be able to make the case (although I have no numbers, stats, or medical background to back this up) that an extra year of college conditioning (which is at a higher level than takes place in the NBA) would have your body more prepared for the shock of that first year or two of NBA grind (look at the body type difference between a rookie and the same player several years later, it is usually pretty pronounced). That might help limit risk of some overuse injuries early in a career which, once they occur, can tend to linger for a time. Or maybe it wouldn't, just a thought.


I remember Luol Deng saying how much he loved Duke and wanted to stay, right before he declared. Then a year later he talked about how much he missed Duke and wished he could have stayed. It’s like being kicked in the crotch repeatedly.

Luol had some very compelling reasons to go (he essentially had to go) that do not necessarily apply to Carter. I do think Luol really wanted to stay (and I would have loved to have him) but you have to respect a man taking care of his family. Very different situations IMO, this seems a lot more like Miles Bridges last year to me although I expect a different outcome.

[duke79]

All of this can be true, and yet people could still make the same decision.

Heck, I would have loved to stay at Duke beyond my four years. But life after school beckoned.

LOL, exactly why I went to Duke Law School!

[heartofgold]

How about we start dreaming about a line up that includes Carter? Granted low chances of it happening but fun to contemplate... Maybe our 3 point shooting from all the wide open shots we got from teams packing in to defend down low... We would be a rebounding machine that's for sure.

[devildeac]

All of this can be true, and yet people could still make the same decision.

Heck, I would have loved to stay at Duke beyond my four years. But life after school beckoned.

It's possible. My sophomore roommate took the 6.5 year plan to graduate from Duke. :eek:

[Kedsy]

Maybe our 3 point shooting from all the wide open shots we got from teams packing in to defend down low...

Well, except Wendell might often be our best three-point shooter on the floor... :p

[kAzE]

Well, except Wendell might often be our best three-point shooter on the floor... :p

I was going to say . . . with Zion as another physical presence crashing the boards on offense, it might not be a terrible idea to have Wendell shooting more 3s, especially since he'd be making the opposing center come out to the perimeter, and leaving wide open lanes for RJ/Cam/Zion to posterize people in the paint.

What an unconventional Duke team that would be.

[kako]

If it's the 23rd of April, 2018, and Carter hasn't submitted his name for the draft, then I'll get excited. He may even submit his name, but not hire an agent... which will bring me back down to earth again. I personally am assuming he's gone until it's clear he's staying. And then you can knock me over with a feather.

I don't know if there's ever been a clear OAD lottery pick who hasn't gone pro after his freshman year. People can dream up reasons, but hard to believe Carter would be the first. Until then, I think discussion on this are a little like planning what to do if you win the lottery... it's just dreaming.

9F

[devildeac]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnmbJzH93NU

[kAzE]

If it's the 23rd of April, 2018, and Carter hasn't submitted his name for the draft, then I'll get excited. He may even submit his name, but not hire an agent... which will bring me back down to earth again. I personally am assuming he's gone until it's clear he's staying. And then you can knock me over with a feather.

I don't know if there's ever been a clear OAD lottery pick who hasn't gone pro after his freshman year. People can dream up reasons, but hard to believe Carter would be the first. Until then, I think discussion on this are a little like planning what to do if you win the lottery... it's just dreaming.

9F

There's been a few: Marcus Smart and Miles Bridges are the most recent examples. But that's 2 out of hundreds, so while it's certainly extremely rare, it's not unprecedented.

Robert Williams also came back to school this year, but he was a bit little less of a lottery guarantee in 2017.

[gocanes0506]

Yea could Carter work on being more a NBA style big man next year? Sure. More ball handling / pick and pop style play / quicker feet to defend on the perimeter. With one basketball and the three top players in the class on the team as well, how much offense will go through Carter? I cant imagine much. His touches were already "limited" by MBIII. What would Barrett, Zion, etc do? I dont think the juice is worth the squeeze. 1 year closer to a degree isnt worth getting paid a solid dollar amount to work on the same skills.

[LasVegas]

If it's the 23rd of April, 2018, and Carter hasn't submitted his name for the draft, then I'll get excited. He may even submit his name, but not hire an agent... which will bring me back down to earth again. I personally am assuming he's gone until it's clear he's staying. And then you can knock me over with a feather.

I don't know if there's ever been a clear OAD lottery pick who hasn't gone pro after his freshman year. People can dream up reasons, but hard to believe Carter would be the first. Until then, I think discussion on this are a little like planning what to do if you win the lottery... it's just dreaming.

9F

Marcus smart? Miles bridges? Blake griffin? Sullinger?

[DukeFanSince1990]

Don't screw with my feelings like this......lol

[CDu]

There's been two: Marcus Smart and Miles Bridges. But that's 2 out of hundreds, so while it's certainly extremely rare, it's not unprecedented.

Robert Williams also came back to school this year, but he was a bit little less of a lottery guarantee in 2017.

Harrison Barnes and Blake Griffin as well. And while we're at it, Ed Davis and James Michael McAdoo. But yeah, outside of UNC players it's quite rare, but not unprecedented.

[DukieInKansas]

It's possible. My sophomore roommate took the 6.5 year plan to graduate from Duke. :eek:

And there is always Zero - I met him my freshman year and he was a senior. I ran into him on campus my senior year and he still hadn't graduated/left. And this was n the way back years when people usually took just 4 years to graduate. :D

[gus]

8309

[hallcity]

I'll be surprised if Carter comes back but I'd also say that we should not discount emotion as a driver of human behavior. Wendell being thrilled by the emotional rollercoaster of a college basketball season. Wendell feeling his college experience was incomplete after the loss to Kansas. Wendell seeing those retired jerseys in the rafters. Wendell experiencing the senior speeches at the end of the Carolina game. Wendell meeting people like Jay Bilas, Jay Williams, Grant Hill, and Shane Battier. Those have an impact.

Wendell is almost certainly going to end up a very wealthy man whether he goes now or goes later. He'll probably end up a wealthier man if he goes now but, while it might be an emotional decision to stay, it's not unreasonable to think that he could end up with a more successful life as a whole if he stays at Duke and gets a degree.

To put this in non-basketball terms, there are plenty of very smart people who get Ph.Ds in the humanities who would have been far better off financially if they had gotten MBAs and gone to work on Wall Street but don't try to tell them they made a mistake.

[elvis14]

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=8309&stc=1
You must spread some Comments around before commenting on gus again.

[ipatent]

When all is said and done I doubt he comes back, but it would be nice if he does.

[Wander]

I feel like on average there's one really good player a year who makes a surprise decision to return. No reason that can't be Carter.

[JasonEvans]

Wendell is almost certainly going to end up a very wealthy man whether he goes now or goes later. He'll probably end up a wealthier man if he goes now.

As I explained earlier in this thread, there are very solid financial arguments for returning to school when you are in Wendell’s position of being a late lottery pick but have demonstrated enough to know that your stock cannot get worse and will very very likely get significantly better by coming back.

The weakness of the 2019 draft could be a huge factor here.

[kAzE]

As I explained earlier in this thread, there are very solid financial arguments for returning to school when you are in Wendell’s position of being a late lottery pick but have demonstrated enough to know that your stock cannot get worse and will very very likely get significantly better by coming back.

The weakness of the 2019 draft could be a huge factor here.

Here's an interesting article (https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/sports/columnists/graham-couch/2017/06/30/couch-one-and-done-myth-data-shows-two-years-college-hoops-pays-off-most/443305001/) from last year about 2 and dones (Miles Bridges, specifically).

I'm taking it with a grain of salt, because I think the writer is kind of cherry picking his facts and data, but he also makes a few good points about the benefits of 2 and done:


$31 million

- Average career earnings for NBA players drafted outside of the top five picks between 2006 and 2012 who played two years of college basketball before turning pro.

$28 million

- Average career earnings for NBA players drafted outside of the top five picks between 2006 and 2012 who played one year of college basketball before turning pro.

35

The number of two-year-and-done college basketball players drafted between 2006 and 2012 still active in the NBA.

30

The number of one-and-done college basketball player drafted between 2006 and 2012 still active in the NBA.


Notable that this might not apply to Wendell, since he could very realistically go in the top 5, but it's some interesting data nonetheless.

[CDu]

As I explained earlier in this thread, there are very solid financial arguments for returning to school when you are in Wendell’s position of being a late lottery pick but have demonstrated enough to know that your stock cannot get worse and will very very likely get significantly better by coming back.

The weakness of the 2019 draft could be a huge factor here.

Yeah, I mentioned a week or two ago that next year's draft class is REALLY weak in the frontcourt (and it may wind up being weak overall) compared with this year's class. I mentioned it in reference to Bolden, but noted that the same would apply to Carter. Both players would stand a good chance of benefiting financially by returning. Bolden could make himself a first rounder next year with a good season. Carter could make himself the top big and a top 3 pick overall (instead of mid/late lottery and 5th big off the board). That's potentially worth several million more guaranteed dollars than if either went pro this year.

I really don't think Carter will come back. But it's not an unreasonable business decision to return, even ignoring the potential "quality of life/happiness" considerations.

[simplyluvin]

Two side questions to all of this is 1) how is this affecting Marques' decision and 2) if this affected the EJ Montgomery decision at all. To the first, I would have to think that it is affecting Marques' decision at least a little bit, and I expect Marques to decide after Wendell announces. As to the second, in light of reports that Duke backed off and that EJ was not seen as the #1 option at the 5 next year, I'd bet there is comfort inside the coaching staff that one or both of Marques and Wendell are coming back. Here's hoping...

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I've stopped being disappointed when players go pro after saying they're undecided. It's happened too many times to us. Even with Kyrie (I still feel we all were cheated out of our one year with him -- what could have been. "Well, what could have been, was."*)

Reading his mom's quote today gives me hope he'll stay, but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for him to decide. I'd give the odds at 1 in 200, but then I'm an optimist (!) and not a betting man.




* my favorite quote from the book Semi-Tough. I was so disappointed that the quote didn't make the movie, and I was waiting to hear it.

[Messimorgan17]

This is all pure speculation and probably a pipe dream that Carter comes back...
If he does, what will Bolden and Javin do?

[CDu]

I've stopped being disappointed when players go pro after saying they're undecided. It's happened too many times to us. Even with Kyrie (I still feel we all were cheated out of our one year with him -- what could have been. "Well, what could have been, was."*)

Reading his mom's quote today gives me hope he'll stay, but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for him to decide. I'd give the odds at 1 in 200, but then I'm an optimist (!) and not a betting man.




* my favorite quote from the book Semi-Tough. I was so disappointed that the quote didn't make the movie, and I was waiting to hear it.

I'm in the same boat. I fully expect him to go pro. I would love for him to return. I won't be disappointed or in any way surprised if he does not.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

You must spread some Comments around before commenting on gus again.






Got you covered on the Zporkz! :cool:

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

You must spread some Comments around before commenting on gus again.






Me as well.

[sagegrouse]

Luol had some very compelling reasons to go (he essentially had to go) that do not necessarily apply to Carter. I do think Luol really wanted to stay (and I would have loved to have him) but you have to respect a man taking care of his family. Very different situations IMO, this seems a lot more like Miles Bridges last year to me although I expect a different outcome.

Although I don't know well the culture of the Deng family -- his father had been a minister in the Sudanese government -- it was likely more of a communal or paternal decision than would typically apply here

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It would be fascinating to see Carter back for a second year. I bet he would put up Bagley numbers and relish the attention.

[kAzE]

It would be fascinating to see Carter back for a second year. I bet he would put up Bagley numbers and relish the attention.

It would be hard to see him getting 21 and 11 with big time scorers like RJ, Cam, and Zion in the fold, but I could definitely see him getting 14 and 10 without breaking a sweat.

[flyingdutchdevil]

It would be fascinating to see Carter back for a second year. I bet he would put up Bagley numbers and relish the attention.

Doubt it. Bagley put up insane numbers. And with 3 scorers on the team next year, Carter would have to share the ball.

But it's a moot point; Carter's gone. His head just hasn't won the battle against the heart yet.

[Steven43]

We should pause to appreciate what Mom is saying here - that coming back would make him a better person and improve his quality of life. It's refreshing to hear that it isn't always just about the money. In fact, we as fans have no idea how much the money gets in the way of living a truly happy life and what it does to the character of these kids being millionaires before they are even 20. If we really care about these kids, I don't think we should just automatically say leaving is the right thing to do so you can make your millions even faster...

Very wise way of looking at it, I think. I’ve been very surprised over the years that more DBR posters do not voice similar sentiments.

[CDu]

It would be fascinating to see Carter back for a second year. I bet he would put up Bagley numbers and relish the attention.


It would be hard to see him getting 21 and 11 with big time scorers like RJ, Cam, and Zion in the fold, but I could definitely see him getting 14 and 10 without breaking a sweat.

This. I'd expect him to top 10 rebounds per game easily, and probably 16 ppg easily as well. But 21 and 11 is pretty absurd. And with a deeper crop of scorers around him than we had this year, it would be really hard for anyone to average 20 ppg on next year's team.

Heck, I'm not convinced we'll see anyone average 20 ppg next year WITHOUT Carter.

[MarkD83]

I've learned not to speculate about the roster until September. However here is something to consider if academics is important to Wendell's decisions. Duke has had athletes graduate in 3 years. One can get to the 32 to 34 credits for graduation with AP credits, summer school and normal semesters. I believe that before their fall semester of their freshman year Duke basketball players take summer school classes as well. If someone comes back for a second year that could mean 2 summers of additional classes. So let's add up the credits: 2-3 AP credits. 2 credits the summer before freshman year. 4 credits in the fall and 4 credits in the spring of freshman year. 4 credits in the summer before sophomore year. 8 credits during sophomore year and 4 more the summer after sophomore year. That equals 28-29 credits. Play in the NBA for a year and then take summer school and you may have your degree

[jv001]

You must spread some Comments around before commenting on gus again.






Looks like several of us posters took care of that for you. :cool:GoDuke!

[OZ]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23114991/wendell-carter-jr-duke-blue-devils-undecided-nba-draft-parents-say

So does anybody actually buy this? Kylia goes off on how college basketball is just a huge con less than 2 weeks ago, and now she is encouraging Wendell to stay at Duke?

That would be a dream come true (I <3 Wendell Carter), but come on. Let's be real. He should go to the NBA.

She's been totally honest so far about how she feels. Why doubt her now? I look for him to go... but we can dream.

[sagegrouse]

She's been totally honest so far about how she feels. Why doubt her now? I look for him to go... but we can dream.

Not only can I "dream," but I can also "grasp at straws."

[flyingdutchdevil]

This. I'd expect him to top 10 rebounds per game easily, and probably 16 ppg easily as well. But 21 and 11 is pretty absurd. And with a deeper crop of scorers around him than we had this year, it would be really hard for anyone to average 20 ppg on next year's team.

Heck, I'm not convinced we'll see anyone average 20 ppg next year WITHOUT Carter.

Yup. Ideally, we'd have 2009-10 all over again, where three players averaged 17 points or more. I mean, this scenario is more realistic than Carter coming back for his sophomore year, right?

[moonpie23]

stop it...he's not coming back....

there......


as you were...

[CDu]

Yup. Ideally, we'd have 2009-10 all over again, where three players averaged 17 points or more. I mean, this scenario is more realistic than Carter coming back for his sophomore year, right?

I mean, I'd venture that us having 3 guys averaging 17+ ppg next year is probably close to even odds. So, yes, I'd say MUCH more likely than Carter returning.

[kAzE]

Yup. Ideally, we'd have 2009-10 all over again, where three players averaged 17 points or more. I mean, this scenario is more realistic than Carter coming back for his sophomore year, right?

In the overwhelmingly likely scenario that Carter is gone, I could see Rj Barrett taking enough shots to score 20 ppg. He's hyper-efficient, is a proven closer, can get to the rim at will, and has a relentless scorer's mentality. He's also less of a distributor than Cam (and indeed, Zion, who I think will forever be an underrated passer).

It's not that RJ is selfish, it's just that he's incredibly good at getting to the rim going 1 on 1 in the half court, better than anyone else in this recruiting class. He also has the skills to consistently get to the free throw line or score from mid range. I'd give him pretty decent odds to score 20 a game. Of the 3 big scorers, he's by far the best overall scorer.

[smvalkyries]

Never having had the opportunity I can't even imagine how he feels. Empirically it seems that most having the opportunity leave as soon as possible and that I think, as does father Carter is the best and maybe only business decision. On the other hand it seems that most Duke players who leave early at the end of their careers wish that they had or could have stayed on a little longer. That additional year at Duke in the long run was worth more than that last year in the NBA. Maybe its just another year of maturity, maybe its another year of learning ( we are never again exposed to the intellectual quality of the student body and professors at Duke) or maybe it just isn't very much fun spending endless hours in a hotel room while fighting for playing time in the League even if you are rich. From someone who worked full time while going to law school you never get those early years back and surely don't want to waste them. In retrospect I wish I had borrowed to go to law school instead of working full time and I was someone that honestly celebrated when I first started getting paid to work. Bottom line best business decision is to go, best personal decision seems to be to stay but only if you don't get injured and you continue to improve. An added bonus is you just might win a national title and you can probably graduate with a degree from Duke either with online courses or a full summer. I suggest asking those most like you who have gone and can reflect back on their decision what they would do if they could do it over. Best of luck- its a win/win you can't lose either way. You have worked hard to put yourself in this position..
Neither choice is wrong- You deserve this opportunity. Make the best choice for you. Thank you for 2017-18 Mr. Carter the old alumni appreciate you too.

[flyingdutchdevil]

In the overwhelmingly likely scenario that Carter is gone, I could see Rj Barrett taking enough shots to score 20 ppg. He's hyper-efficient, is a proven closer, can get to the rim at will, and has a relentless scorer's mentality. He's also less of a distributor than Cam (and indeed, Zion, who I think will forever be an underrated passer).

It's not that RJ is selfish, it's just that he's incredibly good at getting to the rim going 1 on 1 in the half court, better than anyone else in this recruiting class. He also has the skills to consistently get to the free throw line or score from mid range. I'd give him pretty decent odds to score 20 a game. Of the 3 big scorers, he's by far the best overall scorer.

Given that we have Tre (pass first), Cam (pass first), and Bolden (unproven scorer) as three of our five starters, we need someone to be selfish. And I'm totally fine with RJ taking on that responsibility.

[CameronBornAndBred]

8311

Is that true?

[CDu]

Given that we have Tre (pass first), Cam (pass first), and Bolden (unproven scorer) as three of our five starters, we need someone to be selfish. And I'm totally fine with RJ taking on that responsibility.

I don't think I would categorize Reddish as "pass-first." He's just not as aggressive as Barrett. But he's still very much a score-first player. Just one whose focus comes and goes, and who can pass better than Barrett can.

Between Barrett, Reddish, and Williamson, I don't think we'll lack for potent scoring threats.

[907bluedevils]

The difference between a 9-10 pick this year and next year's weak big man draft (pick #4 as a reasonable projection) is about 9-10 million on the rookie contract.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't think I would categorize Reddish as "pass-first." He's just not as aggressive as Barrett. But he's still very much a score-first player. Just one whose focus comes and goes, and who can pass better than Barrett can.

Between Barrett, Reddish, and Williamson, I don't think we'll lack for potent scoring threats.

I think this is very debatable. True that Cam's focus comes and goes, but he's always been incredibly unselfish. He is as close to a point forward as Duke will ever have. I think he'll have the most assists next year on the team (and probably a ton of TOs as well).

[kAzE]

I think this is very debatable. True that Cam's focus comes and goes, but he's always been incredibly unselfish. He is as close to a point forward as Duke will ever have. I think he'll have the most assists next year on the team (and probably a ton of TOs as well).

I agree with this assessment, although I think it'll be close between him and Tre for the team leader in assists (I'd give Tre a slight edge). Cam has even said many times in interviews that he doesn't want to be thought of as a scorer, and loves talking about his point-forward skills. He's always been the best offensive option on his high school teams (even when he played with Mo Bamba), but that won't be the case next year.

[Dukehky]

He's as likely to come back as Jabari was.

[El_Diablo]

8311

Is that true?

No, that tweet was apparently just referring (erroneously) to the early entry deadline being at midnight tonight. It has been deleted.

[sagegrouse]

Hey, guys and gals! This is like the moment in the stage play Peter Pan, when Peter beseeches the audience to clap and bring Tinkerbell back to life -- urr, Wendell back to Duke. I can't hear you!!

[CDu]

I think this is very debatable. True that Cam's focus comes and goes, but he's always been incredibly unselfish. He is as close to a point forward as Duke will ever have. I think he'll have the most assists next year on the team (and probably a ton of TOs as well).

I'm not sure where you've gotten this impression, but I think it's a bit inaccurate. Reddish averaged 22 ppg in the EYBL last year, with less than 4 assists per game (Jones averaged 8 assists per game). In high school play, he averaged 28 points and 4 assists per game.

Now, Reddish is certainly a very capable ballhandler and passer, and can fill in for spot minutes as a point forward whenever the PG needs to sit. But he's a scorer first and foremost, and by a wide margin.

If Jones doesn't have twice as many assists as Reddish next year, I'll be fairly surprised.

I am envisioning around 6 assists per game for Jones, and around 2-3 assists per game from Reddish.

[Dukehky]

I'm not sure where you've gotten this impression, but I think it's a bit inaccurate. Reddish averaged 22 ppg in the EYBL last year, with less than 4 assists per game (Jones averaged 8 assists per game). In high school play, he averaged 28 points and 4 assists per game.

Now, Reddish is certainly a very capable ballhandler and passer, and can fill in for spot minutes as a point forward whenever the PG needs to sit. But he's a scorer first and foremost, and by a wide margin.

If Jones doesn't have twice as many assists as Reddish next year, I'll be fairly surprised.

I am envisioning around 6 assists per game for Jones, and around 2-3 assists per game from Reddish.

6 is a lot, especially playing with drivers. That'd be cool though.

[subzero02]

He's as likely to come back as Jabari was.

Jabari was in the running to be the number 1 pick and wound up going number 2. Carter is in a different situation. He could slide outside of the top 10; his achilles injury might also have him anxious about conducting private workouts for individual teams. He would almost certainly improve his draft stock by returning for his sophomore year and then entering what is expected to be a weaker draft in 2019.

[CDu]

6 is a lot, especially playing with drivers. That'd be cool though.

That may wind up being high, especially with the iso abilities of Barrett, Reddish, and Williamson. But 5-6 seems reasonable for Jones to me.

[Dukehky]

Jabari was in the running to be the number 1 pick and wound up going number 2. Carter is in a different situation. He could slide outside of the top 10; his achilles injury might also have him anxious about conducting private workouts for individual teams. He would almost certainly improve his draft stock by returning for his sophomore year and then entering what is expected to be a weaker draft in 2019.

Cool. He's still going to be a top 10 pick, and he's going to leave. The likelihood for both coming back is and was 0.

We can debate the merits and pros and cons all day, doesn't change what the ultimate outcome will be.

[JetpackJesus]

I've learned not to speculate about the roster until September. However here is something to consider if academics is important to Wendell's decisions. Duke has had athletes graduate in 3 years. One can get to the 32 to 34 credits for graduation with AP credits, summer school and normal semesters. I believe that before their fall semester of their freshman year Duke basketball players take summer school classes as well. If someone comes back for a second year that could mean 2 summers of additional classes. So let's add up the credits: 2-3 AP credits. 2 credits the summer before freshman year. 4 credits in the fall and 4 credits in the spring of freshman year. 4 credits in the summer before sophomore year. 8 credits during sophomore year and 4 more the summer after sophomore year. That equals 28-29 credits. Play in the NBA for a year and then take summer school and you may have your degree

Can you use 2-3 AP credits now? When I went ('02-'06), you could only use 1 AP credit. All you could do with additional AP classes was place out of intro-level courses if you scored a 4 or 5.

[Acymetric]

Cool. He's still going to be a top 10 pick, and he's going to leave. The likelihood for both coming back is and was 0.

We can debate the merits and pros and cons all day, doesn't change what the ultimate outcome will be.

What was the probability of Miles Bridges coming back? Of course there are other examples in other years. It is highly unlikely that he returns (as almost everyone has noted in their posts) but it is not 0. Carter coming back is more likely than me being struck by lightning, both could happen but neither are likely.

[El_Diablo]

Cool. He's still going to be a top 10 pick, and he's going to leave. The likelihood for both coming back is and was 0.

We can debate the merits and pros and cons all day, doesn't change what the ultimate outcome will be.

So...hypothetically...you would be willing to agree to a pie bet and give 100:1 odds on it (i.e., if he goes pro you get a pie, but if he comes back then you owe the counterparty 100 pies)? If you believe the odds are truly 0 then you would be guaranteeing yourself a pie.

[Acymetric]

So...hypothetically...you would be willing to agree to a pie bet and give 100:1 odds on it (i.e., if he goes pro you get a pie, but if he comes back then you owe the counterparty 100 pies)? If you believe the odds are truly 0 then you would be guaranteeing yourself a pie.

Heck, make it 10,000...it's a sure thing!

[GeneBanksManCrush]

8311

Is that true?

No, he's since corrected that. He thought today was the deadline to announce for the draft, which it's not.

[CameronBornAndBred]

No, that tweet was apparently just referring (erroneously) to the early entry deadline being at midnight tonight. It has been deleted.
Thanks. Figured it had to be fishy, hadn't seen any headlines about it.

[CameronBornAndBred]

No, he's since corrected that. He thought today was the deadline to announce for the draft, which it's not.

So I'm guessing that means we get to wait 'til the 22nd for him to say he's leaving. This is gonna be a looooong thread. :eek:

[mattman91]

So I'm guessing that means we get to wait 'til the 22nd for him to say he's leaving. This is gonna be a looooong thread. :eek:

Don't worry, there will surely be lots of puns in this thread to keep it entertaining. :rolleyes:

[Troublemaker]

I think this is very debatable. True that Cam's focus comes and goes, but he's always been incredibly unselfish. He is as close to a point forward as Duke will ever have. I think he'll have the most assists next year on the team (and probably a ton of TOs as well).

I'll take Tre Jones. You take Cam Reddish. We'll bet a pie on who averages the most assists per game. Push if it turns out to be a third player. Deal?

I like how the pie bet is catching on:


So...hypothetically...you would be willing to agree to a pie bet and give 100:1 odds on it (i.e., if he goes pro you get a pie, but if he comes back then you owe the counterparty 100 pies)? If you believe the odds are truly 0 then you would be guaranteeing yourself a pie.

[Ian]

I appreciate this is a difficult decision for him. But I still expect him 100% to go. It's like there this a really close election where one side won by a few hundred votes out of a million votes. It's an exruciating close margin, but it doesn't matter how many times you recount the votes the winner is still the winner. So for Carter it may well be a very difficult decision where after all the factors are stacked up, going will trump staying by a tiny margin. But that tiny margin is enough to drive the decision in the same direction, 100% of the time.

[jacone21]

So I'm guessing that means we get to wait 'til the 22nd for him to say he's leaving. This is gonna be a looooong thread. :eek:

I predict he'll announce on Monday that he is leaving. That should put this thread out of its misery.

[CDu]

I'll take Tre Jones. You take Cam Reddish. We'll bet a pie on who averages the most assists per game. Push if it turns out to be a third player. Deal?

I like how the pie bet is catching on:

You’re welcome for priming this bet for you if the Dutchman takes it. ;)

[WVDUKEFAN]

A lot of it depends on where he could end up in next years draft. Right now he's projected as a 9. He could easily be a top 5 next year and possibly the No. 1 pick.

[Troublemaker]

You’re welcome for priming this bet for you if the Dutchman takes it. ;)

For sure. I'll kick you back a slice. :-)

[BD80]

For sure. I'll kick you back a slice. :-)

Everybody wants their piece of the pie ...

[richardjackson199]

I appreciate this is a difficult decision for him. But I still expect him 100% to go. It's like there this a really close election where one side won by a few hundred votes out of a million votes. It's an exruciating close margin, but it doesn't matter how many times you recount the votes the winner is still the winner. So for Carter it may well be a very difficult decision where after all the factors are stacked up, going will trump staying by a tiny margin. But that tiny margin is enough to drive the decision in the same direction, 100% of the time.

Agreed. Carter is gone. I've accepted as much. I'm glad to hear he loves Duke and that it will be a tough decision.

[BLPOG]

Can you use 2-3 AP credits now? When I went ('02-'06), you could only use 1 AP credit. All you could do with additional AP classes was place out of intro-level courses if you scored a 4 or 5.

I think you *might* be mistaken in your recollection, or Duke changed the policy a bit immediately after you graduated. In my era (2008-2013), Duke allowed Trinity students to use two AP credits. I think that is still the policy. As you stated, they did/do allow additional AP tests and the like to be counted for placement and fulfillment of some non-credit requirements, although some of them are disqualified under certain conditions.

For Pratt students, there was (is?) no cap on the number of credits that can be applied to the degree, but the list of explicitly disqualified tests is much more substantial.

[hallcity]

I predict he'll announce on Monday that he is leaving. That should put this thread out of its misery.

The basketball banquet is on 4/19. Duke players always decide by then, although sometimes it's been on the day of the banquet.

[Dukehky]

A lot of it depends on where he could end up in next years draft. Right now he's projected as a 9. He could easily be a top 5 next year and possibly the No. 1 pick.

Kids don't generally come back and improve their stock to move up from top ten to top 3. They can rise more than that like Kris Dunn did. Certainly not in the 1 and done era. Blake Griffin may be the one, but I don't remember what his stock was like after his freshman year.

The more you play, the more people poke holes in your game. Bagley was said to have been the #1 pick in last years draft which was one of the best in recent memory (people said before he committed, that if he were in this draft, he'd be #1). Now, he played, and was absolutely incredible, and he's projected top 5 consensus.

Carter has limitations, notably, defending in space. That crap gets picked apart by scouts for big men, because their main thing on defense is to be able to guard on a switch. Idk he can't do that, but that's the kind of thing he risks. I don't think he would move up a ton, but I also don't believe he'd fall.

Re: Pie bet. I'm never going to wager on the decisions of a college kid. Chance of returning as 0 is probably more accurate than even being at 5% though.

[MCFinARL]

I guess I would reconcile the mom’s comments as such: earlier her quotes said that going to college does not make sense as a business decision. From a purely financial standpoint, the risk of getting injured and the lack of income does not outweigh the educational experience, hence the “all con” comment. But if Wendell decides to return, it would not be a business decision. It would be done for other reasons - personal development, gaining more of an education, etc. So those two notions can coexist.

It’s also possible that when the earlier comments were made, emotions were running high after the loss to Kansas, and things have settled down and the family can analyze things more objectively.

This is just me trying to make sense of things, and also to create a reason for him to come back. It’s more likely he goes anyways, and these comments were made to put forth the narrative that he is a kid who cares deeply about education (just like the idea of him going to Harvard).


This. Exactly this.

Whoever compared it to Jabari was spot on. It's the exact same thing. It's just PR and brand-building.

I definitely think the two notions can co-exist. The context is important--in the first interview she was talking specifically about coming to college at all, rather than going straight into the NBA. And despite those remarks, as well as her initial opinion that Wendell should go to Harvard, she went on to say the whole family loved Duke and their experience there and would be very sad to see it end.

And just because these most recent remarks, coupled with the earlier ones, help to depict Wendell as a smart, thoughtful kid doesn't mean it's necessarily all branding--from everything we have seen, he IS a smart, thoughtful kid. And I'm not sure how much bigger a shoe contract you get for being "the guy who almost went to Harvard and almost stayed at Duke for two years."

Even though I think the chances that Wendell stays in college are infinitesimally small, I don't doubt at all the sincerity of his parents' remarks. The key thing both parents are saying, according to the article, is that this is Wendell's decision to make--and Mom goes on to note he is the person who will have to live with it. At his age, even small decisions can sometimes seem terribly important--and this is not a small decision. It doesn't surprise me he wants to take his time with it, even if it is just to reconcile himself to the idea that it is worth it to have to begin "adult" life a few years before the vast majority of his classmates.


I graduated a semester early, and still consider it the biggest mistake of my life (that and buying a Nehru jacket...I wonder if anyone will get the reference).

How young do you think we are? And do you have photos?


Can you use 2-3 AP credits now? When I went ('02-'06), you could only use 1 AP credit. All you could do with additional AP classes was place out of intro-level courses if you scored a 4 or 5.

Are you sure? My kids graduated in '04 and '08, and I think the rule then was that you could use up to 2 toward your 34 credits. And that seems to be what the rule is now. http://trinity.duke.edu/undergraduate/academic-policies/credit-AP-IPC-PMC

[NSDukeFan]

I think this is very debatable. True that Cam's focus comes and goes, but he's always been incredibly unselfish. He is as close to a point forward as Duke will ever have. I think he'll have the most assists next year on the team (and probably a ton of TOs as well).

Grant Hill and Danny Ferry say hi.

[weezie]

I predict he'll announce on Monday that he is leaving. That should put this thread out of its misery.

Possibly he's having trouble picking an agent? After getting burned by the press and espn, maybe he's just being more thorough in vetting.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Grant Hill and Danny Ferry say hi.

And the Grant Hill comparisons are very warranted. Hill averaged 3.6 assists per game for his entire Duke career. I'm expecting Cam to hit above that mark.

To me, Cam is very underrated for a top #3 prospect. In DBR, we tend to focus on RJ a lot. The media tends to focus on Zion. Cam is like the middle child...

I think he's our best 3pt shooter next year. I think he has the best court vision. I think he's the most talented player. But he still has a ton to learn. His defense is gawd awful. He tends to get complacent. He needs to hit the weight room big time.

[Jeffrey]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23114991/wendell-carter-jr-duke-blue-devils-undecided-nba-draft-parents-say

So does anybody actually buy this? Kylia goes off on how college basketball is just a huge con less than 2 weeks ago, and now she is encouraging Wendell to stay at Duke?



These are the horns of the dilemma.
What truth this proof against all lies?


That would be a dream come true (I <3 Wendell Carter), but come on. Let's be real. He should go to the NBA.

Even the purest of romantics compromise.

[fraggler]

And the Grant Hill comparisons are very warranted. Hill averaged 3.6 assists per game for his entire Duke career. I'm expecting Cam to hit above that mark.

To me, Cam is very underrated for a top #3 prospect. In DBR, we tend to focus on RJ a lot. The media tends to focus on Zion. Cam is like the middle child...

I think he's our best 3pt shooter next year. I think he has the best court vision. I think he's the most talented player. But he still has a ton to learn. His defense is gawd awful. He tends to get complacent. He needs to hit the weight room big time.

I agree, Cam is easily our most gifted player. I am hoping he got complacent because he wasn't challenged. He will certainly be challenged at Duke, and I hope he elevates his game accordingly. RJ's drive will help him reach his ceiling as a player, but it is likely lower than Cam's. Zion is a physical freak and is fun to watch, but I am honestly not sure how effective of a player he will be in his one year at Duke. I think it will take time for him to find out how to maximize his gifts.

[Oshima25]

A lot of it depends on where he could end up in next years draft. Right now he's projected as a 9. He could easily be a top 5 next year and possibly the No. 1 pick.

He's projected 6th at ESPN, which as has been mentioned in other threads is probably more accurate than NBADraft.net now that Jonathan Givony is in charge.

But yeah, more broadly he's probably 6-10 range right now and could be 1-5 range next year. We really have no idea what the draft looks like a year from now, but at least at this point it does look like a weaker class. My own take would be either RJ or Zion could go ahead of Carter with a huge year (I'm in the minority but I think Zion's ceiling if he's in shape is much higher than Cam's)... elsewhere though there really isn't a guy you can look at as a better prospect. Maybe Romeo Langford, maybe Nassir Little (except we know UNC doesn't catapult freshmen to the high lottery)? Maybe Rui Hachimura coming back to Gonzaga? I don't know, pointless speculation right now, but a tiny leap up a few spots actually does seem likely if Carter returns and stays healthy.

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet, but for anyone interested the rookie scale is getting a pretty nice boost next year too. Rates aren't exact, but counting the 3rd year option, this year's #6 pick stands to make about $12.47 million in 3 seasons. Next year, #6 will be in line for $13.66 million. From there, if Carter were to jump up a bit, it's roughly: #5 ($15.04M), #4 ($16.61M), #3 ($18.42M), #2 ($20.51M), #1 ($22.92M). Granted the flip side is he's one year further from landing that second, hopefully larger contract - but a jump from 6 this year (which might be optimistic anyway) to 3 or 4 next year comes with a pretty nice financial boost. (Meanwhile, #9 this year is in line for about $9.58M over 3 years).

Anyway - getting carried away. Insofar as finances are ever put to the side it doesn't seem like this is much of a financial decision for Wendell anyway.

[subzero02]

And the Grant Hill comparisons are very warranted. Hill averaged 3.6 assists per game for his entire Duke career. I'm expecting Cam to hit above that mark.

To me, Cam is very underrated for a top #3 prospect. In DBR, we tend to focus on RJ a lot. The media tends to focus on Zion. Cam is like the middle child...

I think he's our best 3pt shooter next year. I think he has the best court vision. I think he's the most talented player. But he still has a ton to learn. His defense is gawd awful. He tends to get complacent. He needs to hit the weight room big time.

Grant averaged 3.6apg for his college career while playing alongside the NCAA's all time assist leader for 3 of his 4 years. In his one season without Hurley running the point, Grant averaged 5.2apg.

[cato]

Grant averaged 3.6apg for his college career while playing alongside the NCAA's all time assist leader for 3 of his 4 years. In his one season without Hurley running the point, Grant averaged 5.2apg.

Not to mention taking home a third national champ . . . What’s that? The shot still went in? Never mind.

[MChambers]

And the Grant Hill comparisons are very warranted. Hill averaged 3.6 assists per game for his entire Duke career. I'm expecting Cam to hit above that mark.

To me, Cam is very underrated for a top #3 prospect. In DBR, we tend to focus on RJ a lot. The media tends to focus on Zion. Cam is like the middle child...

I think he's our best 3pt shooter next year. I think he has the best court vision. I think he's the most talented player. But he still has a ton to learn. His defense is gawd awful. He tends to get complacent. He needs to hit the weight room big time.

If Reddish’s defense is that bad, the Grant comparisons only work on the offensive end, since Grant was a great defender.

[CDu]

Grant averaged 3.6apg for his college career while playing alongside the NCAA's all time assist leader for 3 of his 4 years. In his one season without Hurley running the point, Grant averaged 5.2apg.

Yeah, it is worth reminding that - while Reddish may talk of being a point forward - he hasn’t really been a high-volume passer ever. He has never averaged more than 4 assists in high school. Guys don’t typically improve their assist stats moving up a level.

And, like Hill had at Duke, Reddish will have a pass-first PG eating up assists too.

I have little doubt that Reddish will have some nice passes at Duke. He may even have some games where he leads the team in assists. But I will be surprised if he averages more than 3 assists per game next year, and will be shocked if he tops Jones in assists if both are healthy.

[4Gen]

Wendell will relish four years at Duke. He'll collect multiple rings. He'll make millions playing for pay. And he'll be erudite on air like Bilas, Jay, Giminski, Sparnarkel, Grant. And his life will be perfect.

[MCFinARL]

Wendell will relish four years at Duke. He'll collect multiple rings. He'll make millions playing for pay. And he'll be erudite on air like Bilas, Jay, Giminski, Sparnarkel, Grant. And his life will be perfect.

If you're going to fantasize, might as well dream big.

[dukelifer]

Wendell will relish four years at Duke. He'll collect multiple rings. He'll make millions playing for pay. And he'll be erudite on air like Bilas, Jay, Giminski, Sparnarkel, Grant. And his life will be perfect.

And the Jersey in the rafters

[JetpackJesus]

I think you *might* be mistaken in your recollection, or Duke changed the policy a bit immediately after you graduated. In my era (2008-2013), Duke allowed Trinity students to use two AP credits. I think that is still the policy. As you stated, they did/do allow additional AP tests and the like to be counted for placement and fulfillment of some non-credit requirements, although some of them are disqualified under certain conditions.

For Pratt students, there was (is?) no cap on the number of credits that can be applied to the degree, but the list of explicitly disqualified tests is much more substantial.


Are you sure? My kids graduated in '04 and '08, and I think the rule then was that you could use up to 2 toward your 34 credits. And that seems to be what the rule is now. http://trinity.duke.edu/undergraduate/academic-policies/credit-AP-IPC-PMC

I certainly could be misremembering, but I do want to say I'm 99% sure it was just one because I really could have used one or more of of my other AP credits to fill out that stupid matrix. The policy definitely could have changed even while I was still a student, though. Duke modified Curriculum 2000 (do they still use that?) in 2004 because I think they realized a lot of students were mathematically going to have serious problems graduating in 4 years without taking a lot of summer classes (I was one of them). Before the change, depending on you major(s), you simply could not check all the boxes on the matrix AND satisfy all the degree requirements of your major(s) in 4 years without taking summer classes. It could be that a change to the AP credit policy happened with that modification to the curriculum (assuming it wasn't two to begin with).

Pratt was the way BLPOG described it in my time, too.

[coldriver10]

I certainly could be misremembering, but I do want to say I'm 99% sure it was just one because I really could have used one or more of of my other AP credits to fill out that stupid matrix. The policy definitely could have changed even while I was still a student, though. Duke modified Curriculum 2000 (do they still use that?) in 2004 because I think they realized a lot of students were mathematically going to have serious problems graduating in 4 years without taking a lot of summer classes (I was one of them). Before the change, depending on you major(s), you simply could not check all the boxes on the matrix AND satisfy all the degree requirements of your major(s) in 4 years without taking summer classes. It could be that a change to the AP credit policy happened with that modification to the curriculum (assuming it wasn't two to begin with).

Pratt was the way BLPOG described it in my time, too.
No big deal, of course, but unless they changed it during my freshman year, you are misremembering. The 2 AP credits was in effect when I was an undergrad '01-'05.

[Furniture]

No BS but I had a weird dream last night. I actually dreamt that Carter came back.
weird.

[22JumpShots]

stop it...he's not coming back...

there...


as you were...

So you're tellllin' me there's a chance? :)

[Neals384]

Could this be why EJ Montgomery didn't choose Duke? Or as some have said, why Duke decided to pull back on recruiting him?

I'd still be surprised if he came back though. If he actually came back because of academic reasons then wouldn't it make sense to stay for 3 years and get his degree?

You're a big dreamer.


Wendell will relish four years at Duke. He'll collect multiple rings. He'll make millions playing for pay. And he'll be erudite on air like Bilas, Jay, Giminski, Sparnarkel, Grant. And his life will be perfect.

But 4gen is the biggest.

[gam7]

And the Grant Hill comparisons are very warranted. Hill averaged 3.6 assists per game for his entire Duke career. I'm expecting Cam to hit above that mark.

To me, Cam is very underrated for a top #3 prospect. In DBR, we tend to focus on RJ a lot. The media tends to focus on Zion. Cam is like the middle child...

I think he's our best 3pt shooter next year. I think he has the best court vision. I think he's the most talented player. But he still has a ton to learn. His defense is gawd awful. He tends to get complacent. He needs to hit the weight room big time.

FDD, can we please keep the thread on topic (the topic being completely futile, crazily wishful speculation)?

[TKG]

Wendell will relish four years at Duke. He'll collect multiple rings. He'll make millions playing for pay. And he'll be erudite on air like Bilas, Jay, Giminski, Sparnarkel, Grant. And his life will be perfect.

Did you bring enough for the whole class?

[TKG]

No BS but I had a weird dream last night. I actually dreamt that Carter came back.
weird.

Too much sawdust or lacquer, Furniture.

[flyingdutchdevil]

If career earnings is the goal - and for many it is - then Carter, sadly, should leave. The risk of injury, exposure of a true weakness, or some unknown circumstance that drops you in the draft is just too great. This isn't like Duval or Jackson, who would have benefited from another year of school and likely solidified themselves as a first round pick. Rather, this is moving up into the top 5 when you're already a top 10 pick.

Carter would be an amazing addition to next year's team. And he may even be that rare sophomore captain. And he clearly likes school. I would do backflips if Carter came back (okay, I'd try to do backflips if Carter came back). But it just makes so little financial sense.

[Saratoga2]

If career earnings is the goal - and for many it is - then Carter, sadly, should leave. The risk of injury, exposure of a true weakness, or some unknown circumstance that drops you in the draft is just too great. This isn't like Duval or Jackson, who would have benefited from another year of school and likely solidified themselves as a first round pick. Rather, this is moving up into the top 5 when you're already a top 10 pick.

Carter would be an amazing addition to next year's team. And he may even be that rare sophomore captain. And he clearly likes school. I would do backflips if Carter came back (okay, I'd try to do backflips if Carter came back). But it just makes so little financial sense.

You are applying your value system to Carter. Who knows if money comes first with him?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

You are applying your value system to Carter. Who knows if money comes first with him?

Well, to be fair, it is the only way to try and analyze. We can't rate "player life satisfaction over career."

[johnb]

I love the fact that he’s debating. The biggest reason to stay is that he’s 18 and enjoys school and Duke basketball. I wouldn’t have been ready, personally, to work in a cut throat biz like the NBA at age 18. An extra year as the most senior starter (?captain) on a potentially historic team, while his body and mind mature a bit, that strikes me as not only worth a small hit on his eventual income, but potentially a positive bump in his eventual productivity. And as the potentially most visible player in the NCAA next year, he’d be much more in line for Cartershoes or whatever. I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that he should leave. And, of course, if he stays another year, he becomes a Duke hero—and, if he stays one year and gradually comes back to get a degree, the rafters are possible/likely, at least partly bc he’d demonstrate the degree to which he is an unusual young man.

By the way, his parents are awesome.

[Acymetric]

...FDD​...

Ugh, now there's a blast from the past (different poster with the same initials).

[Duke95]

This thread is absolutely hilarious.

[budwom]

This thread is absolutely hilarious.

Champagne Alan Greenspan's irrational exuberance phrase comes to mind.

[Pghdukie]

And the off-season has only just begun! Wait a few months - it only gets (add in your own adjective)

[devildeac]

Ugh, now there's a blast from the past (different poster with the same initials).

You might be thinking of FDA...

[MCFinARL]

I certainly could be misremembering, but I do want to say I'm 99% sure it was just one because I really could have used one or more of of my other AP credits to fill out that stupid matrix. The policy definitely could have changed even while I was still a student, though. Duke modified Curriculum 2000 (do they still use that?) in 2004 because I think they realized a lot of students were mathematically going to have serious problems graduating in 4 years without taking a lot of summer classes (I was one of them). Before the change, depending on you major(s), you simply could not check all the boxes on the matrix AND satisfy all the degree requirements of your major(s) in 4 years without taking summer classes. It could be that a change to the AP credit policy happened with that modification to the curriculum (assuming it wasn't two to begin with).

Pratt was the way BLPOG described it in my time, too.

Whether you are misremembering or not, your underlying point--that it was often difficult to complete everything one wanted to do/had to do at Duke without taking summer classes--is correct based on my kids' experience--or at least my second kid. She was a psych major with a minor in economics who wanted to get a certificate from the MMS program--but to meet the deadline for completing some basic MMS classes in order to advance in the program, while also staying on track elsewhere, she had to do two summer school classes after her sophomore year. Her situation was probably exacerbated by the fact that she planned to study abroad the next semester--but still. And she was still scrambling to find classes that would meet some of the matrix requirements as a senior.

[cbarry]

This thread is absolutely hilarious.
Ridiculous is what it is. There is zero, none, nada, zilch chance of him coming back next year. No way he turns down guaranteed tens of millions of dollars to come back to Duke next year, and I can't blame him!

I'd LOVE to have Carter back, but it ain't happening, folks. He's not "considering" coming back. He just hasn't declared for the NBA draft and hired an agent yet (that we know of).

[Acymetric]

You might be thinking of FDA...

You might be correct ;)

My apologies!

[plimnko]

Ridiculous is what it is. There is zero, none, nada, zilch chance of him coming back next year. No way he turns down guaranteed tens of millions of dollars to come back to Duke next year, and I can't blame him!

I'd LOVE to have Carter back, but it ain't happening, folks. He's not "considering" coming back. He just hasn't declared for the NBA draft and hired an agent yet (that we know of).



and zion williamson is going to clemson.

[bigperm13]

Ridiculous is what it is. There is zero, none, nada, zilch chance of him coming back next year. No way he turns down guaranteed tens of millions of dollars to come back to Duke next year, and I can't blame him!

I'd LOVE to have Carter back, but it ain't happening, folks. He's not "considering" coming back. He just hasn't declared for the NBA draft and hired an agent yet (that we know of).

I'm not saying Wendell is coming back but statements such as these were made about both MBIII and Zion not coming to Duke and lo and behold, look what happened.

[CDu]

I don't think anyone has suggested that Carter is coming back. Pretty much everyone expects Carter to go. But there is precedent for players in Carter's position coming back, and there is a clear financial opportunity to be had by returning. There is nothing ridiculous in this thread. Again - the HEAVY odds are on Carter going pro this year. Like, so heavy that Vegas probably wouldn't put a line on it at all if they put odds on this sort of thing. But it's not a 0% chance. Sullinger, Barnes, Bridges, Griffin, and others have delayed their lottery date for a year in hopes of achieving more. For Sullinger and Barnes, it didn't work out well. For Griffin, it worked out extremely well. For Bridges, it doesn't appear to be a financial gain for him.

Again, EXTREMELY unlikely that Carter returns. Like, extremely extremely unlikely. Like, I'd be pretty darn shocked if he came back. But it is not unprecedented. And saying there is a 0% chance is, well, just ignoring the history of these types of things.

[cbarry]

and zion williamson is going to clemson.

I don't think I ever said that about Zion... I guess the point you're trying to make is that most people thought Zion was going to Clemson, and he chose Duke... Similarly most people think Carter is entering the NBA Draft, so...

Your argument doesn't make sense. Most people thought Bagley, Trent, and Duval were 1-and-done'ers, and they were. When Wendell came to Duke, it was with the understanding that he would be here for 1 year, and 1 year only. We as fans understand this, and as much as we hate the 1-and-done compared with the good ol' days (I relish the years I was at Duke, 19888-1992, and all players were 4-year players), it is the new normal. Until the rules change, we will continue to go after and get 1-and-done players. I would love to see the rules change to allow players to jump to the NBA without attending college, and requiring those that do attend college to stay for a minimum of 2 years.

But with regards to Wendell, he is gone. I enjoyed watching him at Duke, and wish him the best in the NBA.

[Troublemaker]

Ridiculous is what it is. There is zero, none, nada, zilch chance of him coming back next year. No way he turns down guaranteed tens of millions of dollars to come back to Duke next year, and I can't blame him!

I'd LOVE to have Carter back, but it ain't happening, folks. He's not "considering" coming back. He just hasn't declared for the NBA draft and hired an agent yet (that we know of).

The basketball gods just ignore obvious reverse-jinxes. You have to start being more subtle because you already used your one mulligan (Cuse over MSU). Which was not efficient use -- should've waited til the Elite 8 and the Duke-KU game.

[Saratoga2]

Ridiculous is what it is. There is zero, none, nada, zilch chance of him coming back next year. No way he turns down guaranteed tens of millions of dollars to come back to Duke next year, and I can't blame him!

I'd LOVE to have Carter back, but it ain't happening, folks. He's not "considering" coming back. He just hasn't declared for the NBA draft and hired an agent yet (that we know of).

Thus do I pour out instruction like prophecy and bestow it on generations to come.

[cbarry]

True, there is a slight potential financial opportunity to be had by coming back, but also a risk of losing tens of millions if next year doesn't go as well as planned. The risk far outweighs the potential gain. I don't blame Carter at all for leaving. It's the right move for him.

I appreciate the history on some of the other players who delayed, CDu. Looks like, for the most part, except for Griffin, there was not much to gain, and definitely some money lost, as a result.


I don't think anyone has suggested that Carter is coming back. Pretty much everyone expects Carter to go. But there is precedent for players in Carter's position coming back, and there is a clear financial opportunity to be had by returning. There is nothing ridiculous in this thread. Again - the HEAVY odds are on Carter going pro this year. Like, so heavy that Vegas probably wouldn't put a line on it at all if they put odds on this sort of thing. But it's not a 0% chance. Sullinger, Barnes, Bridges, Griffin, and others have delayed their lottery date for a year in hopes of achieving more. For Sullinger and Barnes, it didn't work out well. For Griffin, it worked out extremely well. For Bridges, it doesn't appear to be a financial gain for him.

Again, EXTREMELY unlikely that Carter returns. Like, extremely extremely unlikely. Like, I'd be pretty darn shocked if he came back. But it is not unprecedented. And saying there is a 0% chance is, well, just ignoring the history of these types of things.

[cbarry]

Touche!

The basketball gods just ignore obvious reverse-jinxes. You have to start being more subtle because you already used your one mulligan (Cuse over MSU). Which was not efficient use -- should've waited til the Elite 8 and the Duke-KU game.

[CDu]

True, there is a slight potential financial opportunity to be had by coming back, but also a risk of losing tens of millions if next year doesn't go as well as planned. The risk far outweighs the potential gain. I don't blame Carter at all for leaving. It's the right move for him.

I appreciate the history on some of the other players who delayed, CDu. Looks like, for the most part, except for Griffin, there was not much to gain, and definitely some money lost, as a result.

Yes, there is certainly a chance that returning would be a bad financial decision. It is probably the expectation, in fact. My point wasn't to say that staying is absolutely the right financial decision. It would be a "gambling on yourself" situation. And my point of listing those guys wasn't to say that they all made good financial decisions by returning. It was to show that guys gamble on themselves almost every year.

In addition to the guys I listed, others have chosen to return for an additional year too: Smart, Noah (coming back as a junior), Horford (ditto), Robert Williams. Again, not to suggest that them coming back was the right financial move - just to show that these guys make that decision more often than you realize.

Again, HEAVY odds are that Carter will go pro. I certainly don't expect him to be at Duke next year. But if he did come back, he wouldn't be the first to do so. He wouldn't even be the 10th to do so in the last decade or so. It's pretty rare (probably an average of about 1 lotto pick per year since the one-and-done started), but it does happen.

[Duke76]

Well, to be fair, it is the only way to try and analyze. We can't rate "player life satisfaction over career."

I'd come back just to play with this dude, https://uproxx.com/dimemag/tre-jones-duke-blue-devils-jordan-brand-classic/2/

watch that video with or without Carter we got a point guard that doesn't screw around...think he will be light years ahead of what we had this year...give Carter and the other incoming freshmen guys one day of pickup games with Carter this weekend and he'd stay

[Duke95]

Yesterday, I saw that Snoop Dogg said the only person who ever out-smoked him was Willie Nelson.
I expect that list would grow if he ever smoked with the people who think Wendell Carter is coming back.

[UrinalCake]

with or without Carter we got a point guard that doesn't screw around...think he will be light years ahead of what we had this year...

Tre Jones looks great, but a year ago we were watching mix tapes of Duval and saying literally the exact same thing.

[CDu]

Yesterday, I saw that Snoop Dogg said the only person who ever out-smoked him was Willie Nelson.
I expect that list would grow if he ever smoked with the people who think Wendell Carter is coming back.

There would have to be people who actually think Carter is coming back for the list to grow in said situation. But good job hammering that straw man.

[Duke95]

There would have to be people who actually think Carter is coming back for the list to grow in said situation. But good job hammering that straw man.

This thread is 8 pages long because nobody thinks there's a chance Carter comes back, amirite?

Anyone who thinks the probability that Carter comes back is greater than 0.001 has a great chance of out-smoking Snoop Dogg.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'd come back just to play with this dude, https://uproxx.com/dimemag/tre-jones-duke-blue-devils-jordan-brand-classic/2/

watch that video with or without Carter we got a point guard that doesn't screw around...think he will be light years ahead of what we had this year...give Carter and the other incoming freshmen guys one day of pickup games with Carter this weekend and he'd stay

Seriously??!?!!?!?!?!?!?!

Wow. This is depressing.

Duval was a very good PG for Duke. He was excellent in the game that ended our season (can't say the same thing about our senior or the freshman who's name is attached to this thread).

If I'm Carter, I'm putting zero equity into the "Tre Jones" factor. He needs to make this decision based on his a) love of college/Duke and b) financial trajectory.

[moonpie23]

if he comes back, i'll shave my head on Ustream.......

[UrinalCake]

This thread is begging for a list of "What I would do if Carter came back" entries. I'll start:

If Carter came back, I would walk down Franklin Street all decked out in my Duke gear, painted blue and screaming my fool head off.

(EDIT: I see moonpie has already started)

[Duke76]

Tre Jones looks great, but a year ago we were watching mix tapes of Duval and saying literally the exact same thing.

i don't recall one with him hitting outside shots...just mainly dribbling east and west....like it when it says Tre is a north south player and that Cam saying he will be the leader...don't recall that being said about Duval at all...Tre tells you where to be on offense and defense or something to that effect was the money line statement...he gets the keys day one and bet K has already given him the car

[devildeac]

You might be correct ;)

My apologies!

"You may be right
I may be crazy
But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for."

;)

[moonpie23]

This thread is begging for a list of "What I would do if Carter came back" entries. I'll start:

If Carter came back, I would walk down Franklin Street all decked out in my Duke gear, painted blue and screaming my fool head off.

no, you have to do something that you don't USUALLY do....

[CDu]

This thread is 8 pages long because nobody thinks there's a chance Carter comes back, amirite?

Thinking there is a chance Carter comes back is not the same as thinking Carter is coming back. That the thread is 8 pages long doesn't suggest in any way that people think Carter is coming back. It suggests that we like to talk about stuff in the offseason. Hell, probably half the posts are about our incoming freshman class.


Anyone who thinks the probability that Carter comes back is greater than 0.001 has a great chance of out-smoking Snoop Dogg.

I have no idea what the probability that Carter comes back is. But given the last decade's evidence, I'd venture it is higher than 0.001. Simple logic: count the number of projected top-10 picks over the last decade who returned to college instead of being a top-10 pick. If the number is greater than 0, then the probability is greater than 0.001.

I'll start: Harrison Barnes. Question answered. I could continue: Sullinger, Griffin, Smart, McAdoo. There may be others, but I'm too lazy to look.

There is VERY little chance Carter returns. It's greater than zero. I'd probably put it in the ~1% range if I had to guess. As in, almost certain he goes. But not 100% certain.

[UrinalCake]

i don't recall one with him hitting outside shots...just mainly dribbling east and west...like it when it says Tre is a north south player and that Cam saying he will be the leader...don't recall that being said about Duval at all...Tre tells you where to be on offense and defense or something to that effect was the money line statement...he gets the keys day one and bet K has already given him the car

No, but we were saying Duval was the point guard that we needed, that we hadn't had since Tyus, which would be the missing piece that we didn't have the previous year.

[BD80]

if he comes back, i'll shave my head on Ustream....


I will too. Won't look any different.

[Troublemaker]

No, but we were saying Duval was the point guard that we needed, that we hadn't had since Tyus, which would be the missing piece that we didn't have the previous year.

That is true, but we were a bit unlucky. Similarly-ranked Collin Sexton played very well last season, for example, and a couple of PGs ranked below Trevon outplayed him as well.

I'm on board with cautious optimism and letting the freshmen prove it, though. And I would agree that Wendell should make a decision independent of Tre Jones' highlight videos :-)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thinking there is a chance Carter comes back is not the same as thinking Carter is coming back. That the thread is 8 pages long doesn't suggest in any way that people think Carter is coming back. It suggests that we like to talk about stuff in the offseason. Hell, probably half the posts are about our incoming freshman class.



I have no idea what the probability that Carter comes back is. But given the last decade's evidence, I'd venture it is higher than 0.001. Simple logic: count the number of projected top-10 picks over the last decade who returned to college instead of being a top-10 pick. If the number is greater than 0, then the probability is greater than 0.001.

I'll start: Harrison Barnes. Question answered. I could continue: Sullinger, Griffin, Smart, McAdoo. There may be others, but I'm too lazy to look.

There is VERY little chance Carter returns. It's greater than zero. I'd probably put it in the ~1% range if I had to guess. As in, almost certain he goes. But not 100% certain.

Sullinger? Really? I completely agree with Barnes, Griffin, Smart, McAdoo, and I'd add Bridges (surefire lottery). But I'm not sold on Sully.

Man, if those are the names you listed, I'd advise Carter to go. Where's the upside? Griffin is really about it... (the Magic loooooved Smart. They may have taken him with the #2 pick: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/9/4316284/nba-draft-2013-orlando-magic-marcus-smart)

[CDu]

Sullinger? Really? I completely agree with Barnes, Griffin, Smart, McAdoo, and I'd add Bridges (surefire lottery). But I'm not sold on Sully.

Man, if those are the names you listed, I'd advise Carter to go. Where's the upside? Griffin is really about it... (the Magic loooooved Smart. They may have taken him with the #2 pick: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/9/4316284/nba-draft-2013-orlando-magic-marcus-smart)

Sullinger was a top-5 recruit who had a monster freshman year. He chose to return instead of being a lottery pick. It went poorly for him.

And yes, the odds are better that a guy will lose money by returning. The list of guys who have improved their stock by returning is pretty small. That said, this is a pretty unique circumstance in which this year's big man class is extraordinarily deep and talented, whereas next year's is extraordinarily light.

Again, Carter is almost certainly going pro, and the odds are that it is the right decision financially. But neither is 100%, and the latter is far from 100%.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I will too. Won't look any different.

Count me in. If we get to critical mass, Carter will HAVE to come back.

[Duke76]

That is true, but we were a bit unlucky. Similarly-ranked Collin Sexton played very well last season, for example, and a couple of PGs ranked below Trevon outplayed him as well.

I'm on board with cautious optimism and letting the freshmen prove it, though. And I would agree that Wendell should make a decision independent of Tre Jones' highlight videos :-)

yea well that was a little tongue and cheek to introduce that video from my perspective and...... after this year I too am cautiously, cautiously excited

[plimnko]

I don't think I ever said that about Zion... I guess the point you're trying to make is that most people thought Zion was going to Clemson, and he chose Duke... Similarly most people think Carter is entering the NBA Draft, so...

Your argument doesn't make sense. Most people thought Bagley, Trent, and Duval were 1-and-done'ers, and they were. When Wendell came to Duke, it was with the understanding that he would be here for 1 year, and 1 year only. We as fans understand this, and as much as we hate the 1-and-done compared with the good ol' days (I relish the years I was at Duke, 19888-1992, and all players were 4-year players), it is the new normal. Until the rules change, we will continue to go after and get 1-and-done players. I would love to see the rules change to allow players to jump to the NBA without attending college, and requiring those that do attend college to stay for a minimum of 2 years.

But with regards to Wendell, he is gone. I enjoyed watching him at Duke, and wish him the best in the NBA.


i'm not saying you said ANYTHING, but people change their minds all the time for their own reasons . i don't think he's coming back either, but .............me might. like i didn't think williamson was coming to duke, but he is.

[Fish80]

This thread is 8 pages long because nobody thinks there's a chance Carter comes back, amirite?

Anyone who thinks the probability that Carter comes back is greater than 0.001 has a great chance of out-smoking Snoop Dogg.

The probability that Carter comes back is actually closer to 50%. It's binary. He comes back. Or he doesn't. 50/50. Q.E.D.

[Duke95]

The probability that Carter comes back is actually closer to 50%. It's binary. He comes back. Or he doesn't. 50/50. Q.E.D.

LOL.

Anyway, while we're pondering low-probability outcomes, maybe Philly gets one of the top 3 picks, which will then go to the Celtics and they choose Bagley. It would make me enormously happy to see Kyrie, Tatum, and Bagley playing for Boston next year.

[Fish80]

LOL.

Anyway, while we're pondering low-probability outcomes, maybe Philly gets one of the top 3 picks, which will then go to the Celtics and they choose Bagley. It would make me enormously happy to see Kyrie, Tatum, and Bagley playing for Boston next year.

Now that's a fantasy worth having! And then, after Carter leads us to the 2019 National Championship, he too joins the Celtics!

[Acymetric]

Sullinger? Really? I completely agree with Barnes, Griffin, Smart, McAdoo, and I'd add Bridges (surefire lottery). But I'm not sold on Sully.

Man, if those are the names you listed, I'd advise Carter to go. Where's the upside? Griffin is really about it... (the Magic loooooved Smart. They may have taken him with the #2 pick: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/9/4316284/nba-draft-2013-orlando-magic-marcus-smart)

Why aren't you sold on Sullinger? General thought was he would be a top 5 pick in 2011 if he declared...

[Duke95]

Now that's a fantasy worth having! And then, after Carter leads us to the 2019 National Championship, he too joins the Celtics!

That last one might be too far-fetched, as I'm hoping that the (albeit unlikely) addition of Bagley will propel the Celtics to the NBA title next year.

[CDu]

Why aren't you sold on Sullinger? General thought was he would be a top 5 pick in 2011 if he declared...

Yeah, I suspect there's some hindsight revision of where Sullinger was based on where he wound up getting drafted the next year and how, umm, not well his NBA career has gone. But it was a pretty big surprise for him to return for his sophomore year.

[LasVegas]

Sullinger was an animal. 17 and 10 as a freshman with All American honors. I was shocked when he returned because of home dominant he was. One of the main reasons he fell so far in the draft was because of his back.

[kAzE]

LOL.

Anyway, while we're pondering low-probability outcomes, maybe Philly gets one of the top 3 picks, which will then go to the Celtics and they choose Bagley. It would make me enormously happy to see Kyrie, Tatum, and Bagley playing for Boston next year.

Boston only has a tiny chance (2.9%) to get this pick. The pick that the Sixers traded in the Fultz/Tatum swap belonged to the Lakers, and only would go to the Celtics if it's between #2 and #5 (not top 3). The Lakers were too good, so the pick will likely go to the 76ers this year. It has a 87.0% chance to be the 10th overall pick.

The Celtics will instead get the Kings' pick next year, which could actually turn out to be a great pick.

[CDu]

Boston only has a tiny chance (2.9%) to get this pick. The pick that the Sixers traded in the Fultz/Tatum swap belonged to the Lakers, and only would go to the Celtics if it's between #2 and #5 (not top 3). The Lakers were too good, so the pick will likely go to the 76ers this year. It has a 87.0% chance to be the 10th overall pick.

The Celtics will instead get the Kings' pick next year, which could actually turn out to be a great pick.

To be fair, he or she did say "while we are pondering low-probability outcomes..."

I would say Boston has a better chance of getting the Lakers' pick this year than Duke has of having Carter on the floor next year.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

That last one might be too far-fetched, as I'm hoping that the (albeit unlikely) addition of Bagley will propel the Celtics to the NBA title next year.

Same as the addition of Bagley would propel Duke to the 2018 NCAA championship?

[BD80]

Boston only has a tiny chance (2.9%) to get this pick. The pick that the Sixers traded in the Fultz/Tatum swap belonged to the Lakers, and only would go to the Celtics if it's between #2 and #5 (not top 3). The Lakers were too good, so the pick will likely go to the 76ers this year. It has a 87.0% chance to be the 10th overall pick.

The Celtics will instead get the Kings' pick next year, which could actually turn out to be a great pick.

Which the Celts will trade with Jalen Brown and Al Horford to the Spurs for Kawhi Leonard.

[UrinalCake]

Another article with some more details on the decision being weighed by Carter and his parents:

link (https://theundefeated.com/features/wendell-carter-jr-s-parents-are-split-over-whether-duke-star-should-leave-for-the-nba/)

[kAzE]

Which the Celts will trade with Jalen Brown and Al Horford to the Spurs for Kawhi Leonard.

I also think the Celtics will try to use the pick in a trade, but the Spurs would never do that. Horford is way too big of a cap hit. They will ask for Jayson Tatum AND Jaylen Brown, with the King's pick. The Celtics will say no, and the trade won't happen.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Another article with some more details on the decision being weighed by Carter and his parents:

link (https://theundefeated.com/features/wendell-carter-jr-s-parents-are-split-over-whether-duke-star-should-leave-for-the-nba/)
Thanks but could you try a little harder to keep us off topic? :rolleyes:

[Acymetric]

Thanks but could you try a little harder to keep us off topic? :rolleyes:

I got you. We need to re-install the track at Wallace Wade!

In all seriousness, I like the perspective in that article...I think the last line sums it up pretty well!

[mr. synellinden]

Another article with some more details on the decision being weighed by Carter and his parents:

link (https://theundefeated.com/features/wendell-carter-jr-s-parents-are-split-over-whether-duke-star-should-leave-for-the-nba/)

Thanks for sharing that. Certainly puts more color on what’s going on - the tug between head and heart sounds like it’s real. Those in this thread who are saying there is absolutely no chance he returns are wrong in my opinion. It sounds like he’s really thinking about it. He’s interviewed agents. He’s a sure top 10 pick. There should be absolutely no hesitation/delay if he really weren’t considering staying. One thing that is clear is that there are no 2019 big man prospects that would be ranked ahead of him today. And there are at least 3 in this draft - Ayton, Bamba and Bagley. There is a very real chance he goes top 3 next year and would be the first big man picked. Especially if he even just maintains his 3 pt shooting percentage - if he shows he can regularly hit threes, he will be the first pick in the draft, I think. I think this is a real decision. I still think he’s more likely than not to go, but I would not be shocked like others if he stayed. I’d put the odds at 15% that he stays. About the same as a 2 seed beating a 15.

[Acymetric]

Thanks for sharing that. Certainly puts more color on what’s going on - the tug between head and heart sounds like it’s real. Those in this thread who are saying there is absolutely no chance he returns are wrong in my opinion. It sounds like he’s really thinking about it. He’s interviewed agents. He’s a sure top 10 pick. There should be absolutely no hesitation/delay if he really weren’t considering staying. One thing that is clear is that there are no 2019 big man prospects that would be ranked ahead of him today. And there are at least 3 in this draft - Ayton, Bamba and Bagley. There is a very real chance he goes top 3 next year and would be the first big man picked. Especially if he even just maintains his 3 pt shooting percentage - if he shows he can regularly hit threes, he will be the first pick in the draft, I think. I think this is a real decision. I still think he’s more likely than not to go, but I would not be shocked like others if he stayed. I’d put the odds at 15% that he stays. About the same as a 2 seed beating a 15.

Might want to take those seeds, flip them and reverse them.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I agree with everyone that the chances of Carter returning are virtually zero. That being said, does anyone know how the insurance policies that college players get work? I assume the most standard type is lost earnings due to a major injury. Is there a policy for "lost earnings because he played much worse his sophomore year and thus his draft stock dropped?" If the second type of policy was available, returning for another year is much more likely than if he can only insure himself for injury.

[tux]

Not saying that the following is the case...

But, as mentioned already, this makes sense from a purely PR perspective. 1) It makes no difference whether he declares now or at the deadline; 2) It creates a narrative of Carter being a more thoughtful person, etc; 3) It differentiates him a bit from the players that declared immediately.

Now, could any of that make a difference in where he gets drafted? I don't think so, but one could imagine a scenario where a team was considering a handful of players that they graded about the same. Intangibles could certainly come into play. If so, you can literally put a value on this move. Even if you move up one spot, it would be worth it, right? There's really no downside.

Again, not trying to be cynical or question the family's motives. When it comes to the business of the NBA, all is fair IMO.

[sagegrouse]

I agree with everyone that the chances of Carter returning are virtually zero. That being said, does anyone know how the insurance policies that college players get work? I assume the most standard type is lost earnings due to a major injury. Is there a policy for "lost earnings because he played much worse his sophomore year and thus his draft stock dropped?" If the second type of policy was available, returning for another year is much more likely than if he can only insure himself for injury.
I don't know the terms but K says Duke buys insurance policies for the players

[WiJoe]

Tre Jones looks great, but a year ago we were watching mix tapes of Duval and saying literally the exact same thing.

I like Tre's bloodlines

[Matches]

Not saying that the following is the case...

But, as mentioned already, this makes sense from a purely PR perspective. 1) It makes no difference whether he declares now or at the deadline; 2) It creates a narrative of Carter being a more thoughtful person, etc; 3) It differentiates him a bit from the players that declared immediately.

Again, not trying to be cynical or question the family's motives. When it comes to the business of the NBA, all is fair IMO.

Yes. Exactly. And from Duke's perspective, it's nice to have a high-profile guy and/or his parents saying nice things about the program, and about Wendell's experience at Duke. Win/ win. It's nice of them to do what they're doing. But it's just PR - it's really shouldn't be taken at face value.

[camion]

Ridiculous is what it is. There is zero, none, nada, zilch chance of him coming back next year. No way he turns down guaranteed tens of millions of dollars to come back to Duke next year, and I can't blame him!

I'd LOVE to have Carter back, but it ain't happening, folks. He's not "considering" coming back. He just hasn't declared for the NBA draft and hired an agent yet (that we know of).

All right just for fun, here's a pie proposal. Would you give 100 to 1 odds on your declaration? If Wendell goes pro this year you get a pie. If he doesn't you pay 100 pies.


I should probably mention that if you lose Carter gets half of the booty? That's 50 pies for Wendell!! Not that I would try to sway him unduly. :)

[mr. synellinden]

Might want to take those seeds, flip them and reverse them.

Yep. Strike that, reverse it.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't know the terms but K says Duke buys insurance policies for the players

I’d be surprised if most blue bloods don’t. The question is whether each policy is the same or whether the payouts differ (so an OAD gets 100x more than Jack White, for instance).

[camion]

I’d be surprised if most blue bloods don’t. The question is whether each policy is the same or whether the payouts differ (so an OAD gets 100x more than Jack White, for instance).

I would imagine there is a minimum or floor for all, but probably for the stars the ceiling is.... (wait for it)...






the roof.





Yeah, I've got nothing better to do today. I'm sitting in front of a computer waiting for a video meeting to begin.

[cruxer]

Not to mention taking home a third national champ . . . What’s that? The shot still went in? Never mind.

That hurt. Again. :(

[martydoesntfoul]

So what are the odds he announces his decision on April 16–his birthday?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I’d be surprised if most blue bloods don’t. The question is whether each policy is the same or whether the payouts differ (so an OAD gets 100x more than Jack White, for instance).

I don't think the players like Jack White get one....my understanding it was only for those who were virtual shoo-ins for big NBA contracts. Could be wrong....but I can't see an insurance company agreeing to insure a guy not likely to ever get an NBA check.

[yancem]

Sullinger was a top-5 recruit who had a monster freshman year. He chose to return instead of being a lottery pick. It went poorly for him.

And yes, the odds are better that a guy will lose money by returning. The list of guys who have improved their stock by returning is pretty small. That said, this is a pretty unique circumstance in which this year's big man class is extraordinarily deep and talented, whereas next year's is extraordinarily light.

Again, Carter is almost certainly going pro, and the odds are that it is the right decision financially. But neither is 100%, and the latter is far from 100%.

I'm not sure that the list of players that came back and improved their draft position is an idication of the difficulty/likely hood of increasing one's postition by coming back, so much as there is a very small list of players that came back and maybe many of the ones that did, weren't the ones that were in a good position to increase their stock. If more players returned for an extra year, maybe we would be able to make a stronger argument as to the mertis/detriments of an extra year in college. Also, in the examples of the players who returned and either saw their draft position stay the same or drop, can we be certain they actually harmed their career earnings?

What if they got drafted higher but being that much less prepared for the nba, didn't get picked up for the team option year(s)? If one can be exposed at the college level for having weaknesses, certainly those same weaknesses would be even more exposed at the nba level. And while players have all the free time to work on thier game in the pros, that doesn't mean that a) they will or b) they will get the coaching/help they need to do so sucessfully. The nba has very little practice time in season and the coaches are going to spend the most time with the players actually contributing on the court. The only time I think you can definitively say a player made the wrong decision coming back to school is when they drop significantly in the next draft and they wash out of the nba in the shortest amount of time. I think McAdoo probably fits this bill but he may still make his way back to the league. I think McRoberts is a decent case of someone who seemed to be hurt by returning but may not have been. He went from a possible lottery pick to a second rounder but has turned that into a 12 year career earning over $30 million. If he had come out after his freshman year, would he have stuck so long? We don't know but I can't imagine that an extra year in college made him a worse player.

[Kedsy]

I’d put the odds at 15% that he stays. About the same as a 2 seed beating a 15.


Might want to take those seeds, flip them and reverse them.

Even if he reverses them, it's still not right. Historically, #15 seeds have beaten #2 seeds less than 6% of the time. What he should have said is #14 seed beating a #3, which happens about 15% of the time.

[MartyClark]

I’d be surprised if most blue bloods don’t. The question is whether each policy is the same or whether the payouts differ (so an OAD gets 100x more than Jack White, for instance).

Through the magic of Google, it looks like the NCAA sponsors a program called Catastrophic Insurance Program. There is a $90,000 deductible. Basketball players must demonstrate the likelihood of being drafted in the 1st round in the upcoming draft. Premiums are based on the amount of coverage - basketball and football have a 10 million dollar cap.

There are also private disability plans available with varying criteria.

The underwriting on this would be very interesting.

[MChambers]

All right just for fun, here's a pie proposal. Would you give 100 to 1 odds on your declaration? If Wendell goes pro this year you get a pie. If he doesn't you pay 100 pies.


I should probably mention that if you lose Carter gets half of the booty? That's 50 pies for Wendell!! Not that I would try to sway him unduly. :)

Can we give at least 25 of the pies to Alex? Boy needs to gain some weight.

[mr. synellinden]

Even if he reverses them, it's still not right. Historically, #15 seeds have beaten #2 seeds less than 6% of the time. What he should have said is #14 seed beating a #3, which happens about 15% of the time.

Thanks for clarifying. Let me try this another way, if I were setting the betting line at this point in time, I would put it around 7-1 or 8-1. I really don't think this is a PR ploy as others have suggested. At the end of the NCAA tournament I would have set it around 40-1 or 50-1. Last year, one guy who was a clear lottery pick - and similar in terms of a likely draft spot - stayed. So that was 1 out of 14. Just about 7% - there is just about your 15 seed upset.

By the way, Caleb Swanigan who was drafted last year is another guy who could have been drafted in the first round the prior year and stayed for his sophomore year. He ended up as a late first round pick so he probably didn't improve his position by staying but I haven't seen his name mentioned as an example.

[MCFinARL]

I don't think the players like Jack White get one...my understanding it was only for those who were virtual shoo-ins for big NBA contracts. Could be wrong...but I can't see an insurance company agreeing to insure a guy not likely to ever get an NBA check.

Not an expert on the insurance biz, but if someone is willing to pay a premium for the insurance that sufficiently exceeds the expected value of the payout plus admin costs, why not? The insurance company is still more likely than not to make money on the deal.

Of course, that is a big if. As the commenter describing the NCAA program noted, the NCAA apparently allows people to participate only if they have realistic pro prospects. If Duke is providing supplemental insurance, they might have a similar policy.

[kAzE]

Not an expert on the insurance biz, but if someone is willing to pay a premium for the insurance that sufficiently exceeds the expected value of the payout plus admin costs, why not? The insurance company is still more likely than not to make money on the deal.

Of course, that is a big if. As the commenter describing the NCAA program noted, the NCAA apparently allows people to participate only if they have realistic pro prospects. If Duke is providing supplemental insurance, they might have a similar policy.

Also, even though Jack isn't necessarily an NBA prospect, he's still very likely to have a career playing basketball overseas. It makes perfect sense to insure all of our scholarship players.

[BD80]

Also, even though Jack isn't necessarily an NBA prospect, he's still very likely to have a career playing basketball overseas. It makes perfect sense to insure all of our scholarship players.

Is that a benefit received by the student body in general?

[Acymetric]

Through the magic of Google, it looks like the NCAA sponsors a program called Catastrophic Insurance Program. There is a $90,000 deductible. Basketball players must demonstrate the likelihood of being drafted in the 1st round in the upcoming draft. Premiums are based on the amount of coverage - basketball and football have a 10 million dollar cap.

There are also private disability plans available with varying criteria.

The underwriting on this would be very interesting.

I'm not sure I am understanding the concept of a deductible in this case...is this just to cover medical care for the injury? If it is insurance against lost professional earnings, what is the role of the deductible?

[killerleft]

I like Tre's bloodlines

And there are several ley lines that run through Minnesota!:)

[elvis14]

Santa Claus, The Easter Bunny, A Wendell Carter that's coming back to Duke as a sophomore and Coach K are driving and they all arrive at the same 4-way stop at the same time. Who goes first?

Coach K...because the other 3 DON'T !$%^&ing EXIST!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Santa Claus, The Easter Bunny, A Wendell Carter that's coming back to Duke as a sophomore and Coach K are driving and they all arrive at the same 4-way stop at the same time. Who goes first?

Coach K...because the other 3 DON'T !$%^&ing EXIST!

Nice Chasing Amy reference.

[CDu]

I'm not sure I am understanding the concept of a deductible in this case...is this just to cover medical care for the injury? If it is insurance against lost professional earnings, what is the role of the deductible?

You gotta pay some of the cost so that they are willing to pay out the rest in the unlikely event that you end up needing it. Just the risk sharing. Same concept as any kind of insurance policy.

[ArkieDukie]

Is that a benefit received by the student body in general?

No, but you can receive academic credit for it at unc.

[Acymetric]

You gotta pay some of the cost so that they are willing to pay out the rest in the unlikely event that you end up needing it. Just the risk sharing. Same concept as any kind of insurance policy.

Ok, did some more reading and this is basically just supplemental medical insurance for catastrophic injuries.

To be clear, this is not the type of insurance people talk about for protecting from loss of professional earnings if an injury takes place in college that prevents a professional career, which is what was originally being discussed and is more relevant to someone like Carter coming back. A deductible here makes sense (and it looks like progress towards the deductible counts payments made by standard medical insurance, not just out of pocket expenses so that $90,000 may not be as large as it appears).

The more appropriate insurance for this discussion would appear to be Exceptional Student-Athlete Disability Insurance (which would have no deductible, only premiums) which is where my confusion came from.

[Ian]

https://theundefeated.com/features/wendell-carter-jr-s-parents-are-split-over-whether-duke-star-should-leave-for-the-nba/

I'm sure this article has been talked about already. But it does seem to me Wendell's father was a little miffed at Duke for recruiting Bagley when they had previously made assurances about Wendell being the #1 low post option, and that seems to be one of the reasons he's pushing Wendell to declare.

Which leads to me this question, if you could trade getting Bagely for one year for getting Carter for two, would you have done it?

For me it would be yes.

[Kedsy]

https://theundefeated.com/features/wendell-carter-jr-s-parents-are-split-over-whether-duke-star-should-leave-for-the-nba/

I'm sure this article has been talked about already. But it does seem to me Wendell's father was a little miffed at Duke for recruiting Bagley when they had previously made assurances about Wendell being the #1 low post option, and that seems to be one of the reasons he's pushing Wendell to declare.

Which leads to me this question, if you could trade getting Bagely for one year for getting Carter for two, would you have done it?

For me it would be yes.

Would you have made that trade before you knew the NCAA tournament results?

[duke4ever19]

https://theundefeated.com/features/wendell-carter-jr-s-parents-are-split-over-whether-duke-star-should-leave-for-the-nba/

I'm sure this article has been talked about already. But it does seem to me Wendell's father was a little miffed at Duke for recruiting Bagley when they had previously made assurances about Wendell being the #1 low post option, and that seems to be one of the reasons he's pushing Wendell to declare.

Which leads to me this question, if you could trade getting Bagely for one year for getting Carter for two, would you have done it?

For me it would be yes.

In retrospect, I would have preferred Bagley come this year instead of moving up a class. Bagley paired with our guys coming in this year would have been something to behold.

I also think this last Duke team with Carter could have conceivably performed just as well and it might have opened things up on the floor without having both big men patrolling the paint. Spacing was a bit of a concern last year.

[arnie]

Another article with some more details on the decision being weighed by Carter and his parents:

link (https://theundefeated.com/features/wendell-carter-jr-s-parents-are-split-over-whether-duke-star-should-leave-for-the-nba/)

After reading the article, I’m at 25% chance he stays another year and will not be surprised when it happens. OTOH, if Carter stays, gotta believe Bolden leaves.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

In retrospect, I would have preferred Bagley come this year instead of moving up a class. Bagley paired with our guys coming in this year would have been something to behold.

I also think this last Duke team with Carter could have conceivably performed just as well and it might have opened things up on the floor without having both big men patrolling the paint. Spacing was a bit of a concern last year.

What on earth would Bagley have done to high school kids this year? Not even fair.

[Ian]

Would you have made that trade before you knew the NCAA tournament results?

Probably yes. My expectations going into the tournament was SW16 to Elite 8 anyway, so tournament results would not have changed my feelings much.

Just a fun little thought experiment but it's the off season, what else is there to talk about.

[devildeac]

Santa Claus, The Easter Bunny, A Wendell Carter that's coming back to Duke as a sophomore and Coach K are driving and they all arrive at the same 4-way stop at the same time. Who goes first?

Coach K...because the other 3 DON'T !$%^&ing EXIST!

Dear elvis14,

I have pre-selected your December 25, 2018 delivery. Enjoy:

8313

Happy holidays,

S.C.

[wavedukefan70s]

In retrospect, I would have preferred Bagley come this year instead of moving up a class. Bagley paired with our guys coming in this year would have been something to behold.

I also think this last Duke team with Carter could have conceivably performed just as well and it might have opened things up on the floor without having both big men patrolling the paint. Spacing was a bit of a concern last year.

I would have loved to see him have the middle to himself .

[duke4ever19]

What on earth would Bagley have done to high school kids this year? Not even fair.

Yeah, he would have dominated them and probably been bored to tears having inferior competition.

To be clear, I'm just considering the question from an "ideal roster" standpoint.

[MartyClark]

After reading the article, I’m at 25% chance he stays another year and will not be surprised when it happens. OTOH, if Carter stays, gotta believe Bolden leaves.

Regardless of the circumstance, I hope Bolden stays another year.

In the unlikely event that Carter stays, he and Bolden would make a great "two headed beast" in the middle.

[kmspeaks]

In retrospect, I would have preferred Bagley come this year instead of moving up a class. Bagley paired with our guys coming in this year would have been something to behold.

I also think this last Duke team with Carter could have conceivably performed just as well and it might have opened things up on the floor without having both big men patrolling the paint. Spacing was a bit of a concern last year.

Who's going to play the 4 if Bagley doesn't come? Javin? Jack White? Do either of them really space the floor any better? I guess we could have gone to some 4 guard lineups or maybe Jordan Tucker gets some minutes but there really wasn't a typical stretch 4 on the roster to help open up the paint.

[UrinalCake]

But it does seem to me Wendell's father was a little miffed at Duke for recruiting Bagley when they had previously made assurances about Wendell being the #1 low post option, and that seems to be one of the reasons he's pushing Wendell to declare.

Reading between the lines among the statements made by Trent's father, I see some similarities. I would interpret them as saying he thought he would be more of a focal point of the offense, but when Bagley came that changed everything. Also, Trent (and Duval for that matter) likely expected Duke to run a guard-focused offense but instead we wound up pounding the paint with two bigs for literally the first time ever. Wendell expected to be the only big with shooters all around him rather than having a generational talent next to him in the paint. It's nobody's "fault" really, just how things turned out. Everybody knows when they commit to Duke that we will continue to recruit top talent every year, it just so happened that Bagley came early.

Moving forward, it's a fair question for Wendell and his family to ask how he would be used next year. Would the offense be built around him? Or would he be expected to screen and rebound for the guards/wings? It puts K in a tough position. Based on earlier interviews, he sold Zion on the idea of using him like he used LeBron in the Olympics, having the ball in his hands. He has three other elite prospects that are also expecting the ball. Knowing what little I do about how K recruits, he does not make any promises. Carlos Boozer made mention of this a few months ago - he said other schools promised him a certain amount of playing time or a certain number of shots but at Duke he was told he would have to earn everything. All of this year's recruits said similar things in interviews at the McD AA game. So I would expect K to deliver a similar message to Carter as he attempts to re-recruit him. But again, this is all just speculation on my part.

[richardjackson199]

After reading the article, I’m at 25% chance he stays another year and will not be surprised when it happens. OTOH, if Carter stays, gotta believe Bolden leaves.

It's interesting. I just had a completely different take. After reading the article I'm even more convinced, 99.9% sure that Carter will leave OAD. They said he'll probably have a decision by the end of the week.

I fully expect him to announce he's ready to achieve his dream of playing in the NBA Monday on his 19th birthday. I would be absolutely shocked if he returns after seeing Dad's comments. Mom is saying some nice things about Duke, but I just don't see any way he returns. Like Dad said, return and there are no guarantees. Leave and he's a guaranteed multi-millionaire now.

Mom also was saying she was urging him to pick Harvard over Duke. And I never was really worried about that either. And I think Wendell picking Harvard was much more likely than Wendell choosing to return to Duke over going pro as a top 10 pick.

I get that there are other considerations as articulated by his Mom. But it ain't happening. Pipe dream. IMO.

I'm happy for Wendell whatever he decides is best for him. I feel certain I know what he will say. But we'll see.

[Ian]

It's interesting. I just had a completely different take. After reading the article I'm even more convinced, 99.9% sure that Carter will leave OAD. They said he'll probably have a decision by the end of the week.

I fully expect him to announce he's ready to achieve his dream of playing in the NBA Monday on his 19th birthday. I would be absolutely shocked if he returns after seeing Dad's comments. Mom is saying some nice things about Duke, but I just don't see any way he returns. Like Dad said, return and there are no guarantees. Leave and he's a guaranteed multi-millionaire now.

Mom also was saying she was urging him to pick Harvard over Duke. And I never was really worried about that either. And I think Wendell picking Harvard was much more likely than Wendell choosing to return to Duke over going pro as a top 10 pick.

I get that there are other considerations as articulated by his Mom. But it ain't happening. Pipe dream. IMO.

I'm happy for Wendell whatever he decides is best for him. I feel certain I know what he will say. But we'll see.


I pretty much agree with your take. The heart is putting up a good fight, but it's a losing battle and head will inevitably win. It's like a 16 seed playing a 1 seed and the 16 seed is keeping it very close at half time. It's exciting and fun that it's close, and we'd all like to see the 16 pull it off, but we all believe in the end the #1 seed is going to win.

So yes, there is always a chance Wendell pulls a UMBC. But I doubt it.

[rsvman]

It's interesting. I just had a completely different take. After reading the article I'm even more convinced, 99.9% sure that Carter will leave OAD. They said he'll probably have a decision by the end of the week.

I fully expect him to announce he's ready to achieve his dream of playing in the NBA Monday on his 19th birthday. I would be absolutely shocked if he returns after seeing Dad's comments. Mom is saying some nice things about Duke, but I just don't see any way he returns. Like Dad said, return and there are no guarantees. Leave and he's a guaranteed multi-millionaire now.

Mom also was saying she was urging him to pick Harvard over Duke. And I never was really worried about that either. And I think Wendell picking Harvard was much more likely than Wendell choosing to return to Duke over going pro as a top 10 pick.

I get that there are other considerations as articulated by his Mom. But it ain't happening. Pipe dream. IMO.

I'm happy for Wendell whatever he decides is best for him. I feel certain I know what he will say. But we'll see.

This. Plus I suspect his Dad may have more pull on him than his Mom does.

[DukeFanSince1990]

Me personally I am at 84.376% he leaves. But hey, there is always that 16.642% right?

[UrinalCake]

This. Plus I suspect his Dad may have more pull on him than his Mom does.

First time around Mom wanted Harvard, Dad wanted Duke, Dad won out. So, maybe he lets her have this one? ;)

[gillmic]

Me personally I am at 84.376% he leaves. But hey, there is always that 16.642% right?

I agree with you 101.018%

[Fish80]

I am drinking wine and convinced Carter is coming back. He is a perfectionist. He wants another shot. He knows, another year and he can DOMINATE!

Somebody reverse jinx’s me please now.

[gep]

This. Plus I suspect his Dad may have more pull on him than his Mom does.

But what about... "if momma ain't happy, nobody is"....:cool:

[WiJoe]

Me personally I am at 84.376% he leaves. But hey, there is always that 16.642% right?

your math is off

[Fish80]

your math is off

Math is fickle. Sometimes on, sometimes off. On or off. Binary. 50/50. Like Carter’s decision. Return or don’t. 50/50. Q.E.D.

[DukeFanSince1990]

I agree with you 101.018%

This guy gets it.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

But what about... "if momma ain't happy, nobody is"...:cool:

I don't think that is the rule in the Trent household.....at all....we'll see about the Carters...