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proelitedota
04-04-2018, 06:57 PM
http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=211709160&DB_OEM_ID=4200

Go get it young fella. Make money and make us proud.

Pghdukie
04-04-2018, 07:09 PM
Good Luck young man. I believe you need another year or two to better aquaint yourself to the rigors involved. Again , my best wishes - and I hope you make millions !

Truth&Justise
04-04-2018, 07:09 PM
Thank you Trevon Duval for choosing to come to Duke during your lone college season. Your ability to break down a defender one-on-one and get into the paint was special. You were our best performer against Kansas, and you put the team on your back down the stretch for the win against FSU. I'll always remember your penchant for coming up with a timely three-pointer right when we needed to start a run -- or staunch the bleeding.

Good luck in your pro career.

UrinalCake
04-04-2018, 07:20 PM
So the link didn’t actually say that he had hired an agent, just that he had put his name in. But the quotes sure sound like he’s definitely gone.

CDu
04-04-2018, 07:21 PM
So the link didn’t actually say that he had hired an agent, just that he had put his name in. But the quotes sure sound like he’s definitely gone.

The quotes for much of the season have made it clear he was leaving. He mentioned previously that the UNC game was his last in Cameron.

ipatent
04-04-2018, 07:22 PM
So the link didn’t actually say that he had hired an agent, just that he had put his name in. But the quotes sure sound like he’s definitely gone.

It's being reported (https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/981665703542644736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) that he hired an agent.

ncexnyc
04-04-2018, 07:40 PM
I hope Trevon finds success at the next level, however I really don't understand the rush to hire an agent.

With the new system that's in place you have time to make an informed decision on your future. By hiring an agent there's no turning back.

WHOneedsSOX
04-04-2018, 07:58 PM
I hope Trevon finds success at the next level, however I really don't understand the rush to hire an agent.

With the new system that's in place you have time to make an informed decision on your future. By hiring an agent there's no turning back.
I'm sure he got a lot of scouts feedback through Coach K already.

dyedwab
04-04-2018, 08:03 PM
Interesting take here that Duval didn't have a good enough year to improve his stock for the NBA....

https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/981673136318853120

richardjackson199
04-04-2018, 08:31 PM
Goodman's Take Has Some Interesting Tidbits:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23032287/duke-freshman-trevon-duval-join-teammate-marvin-bagley-iii-nba-draft

"Several NBA executives told ESPN that the athletic Duval is a likely second-round pick in June's draft. Duval averaged 10.3 points and 5.6 assists, but NBA executives question his decision-making and also his perimeter shooting. Duval made just 31 of 107 shots from beyond the arc this past season."

"Blue Devils frosh Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr. also are expected to declare for the NBA draft."

RollDevils
04-04-2018, 08:39 PM
I wish TD the best and was glad to have him for a year, but this just seems like a kid who has no desire to be in college. Of the four this year and even going back to 2015, I think he is the least NBA ready of any of our one and done. Of course, it could just be sour grapes and all that.

CDu
04-04-2018, 08:44 PM
I hope Trevon finds success at the next level, however I really don't understand the rush to hire an agent.

With the new system that's in place you have time to make an informed decision on your future. By hiring an agent there's no turning back.

Sometimes guys have their minds made up. It may be that Duval had no interest in another year outside the NBA.

Troublemaker
04-04-2018, 08:52 PM
I hope Trevon finds success at the next level, however I really don't understand the rush to hire an agent.

With the new system that's in place you have time to make an informed decision on your future. By hiring an agent there's no turning back.

Depends on how much one values the option to "turn back." If he's reasonably sure he's going to be a 2nd-round draft pick and is okay with that, and if even in the worst case scenario (undrafted) he would rather just start his professional career and try to fight his way into the league, then hiring an agent makes complete sense. For example.

MrPoon
04-04-2018, 08:54 PM
I don’t dispute that Duval is probably destined for the second round but I also have a feeling, much like Frank Jackson, when TD gets to workout for these guys, he will really impress. I said earlier this year he is a lottery pick and I’ll eat those words but I also think he had to perhaps sacrifice more for this team than anyone. (Him or Carter).
His three pt shooting got better once they found the issue with his eye. Plus there were several games where he hit a key 3, still not a strength but he was never afraid of the moment. He has the athleticism and vision to be a successful pro and I look forward watching him play for many years. I sure hope he surprises the skeptics.

Thanks for all your commitment and hard work this year!

Oshima25
04-04-2018, 08:56 PM
Interesting take here that Duval didn't have a good enough year to improve his stock for the NBA...

https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/981673136318853120

Interesting yes, but kind of indisputable. ESPN 100 rankings aren't the same as draft stock, but Duval was ranked ahead of: Collin Sexton, Jaren Jackson, Kevin Knox, Lonnie Walker, Troy Brown, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Trae Young, to name a few. I'll be stunned if he goes ahead of a single one of those players. Mayyyyybe Brown.

I get the decision, he was in a tough spot. Would love to have seen what he'd do with 3-4 years, as opposed to just one more, but that's unrealistic I suppose. I'm glad we had him - he was better than he got credit for, with some obvious flaws that are completely normal for freshman point guards at schools without Tyus/Kyrie standards. Hope he lands in a good situation.

hallcity
04-04-2018, 08:56 PM
Sometimes guys have their minds made up. It may be that Duval had no interest in another year outside the NBA.

He may have another year or more outside the NBA, possibly even the rest of his life. To my eye, he didn't look anything like a player who could help an NBA team next year. I wish him the best, though.

Bluegrassdevil1
04-04-2018, 08:58 PM
I would strongly suggest looking at any of Ben Swain's (WRAL) specific references to Trevon Duval and his "desire" to be in college. Simply because a kid leaves Duke, does not mean he does not want to be at Duke. I would love to spend all my time with my wife and kids, but I choose to go to work, and yet few rationale people would say that I had "no desire to be with them." Duval tried. Duval showed up. He played. He cheered for his teammates. No one at Duke seemed to have a bad word to say about him. Coach K seems to be okay with Duval's decision. Duval was a highly sought after recruit, that chose Durham, and chose Duke. What more was the kid supposed to do?

CDu
04-04-2018, 09:31 PM
He may have another year or more outside the NBA, possibly even the rest of his life. To my eye, he didn't look anything like a player who could help an NBA team next year. I wish him the best, though.

He will get drafted (probably round 2), and will play in the NBA next year. What he does from there, nobody knows. But he is going to be in the NBA next year.

kAzE
04-04-2018, 09:49 PM
I'd bet Tre ends up a late first rounder. The NBA combine will help him more than almost anyone else. He also played really well in the NCAA tournament, which NBA scouts value very heavily.

He's a little raw, but the athletic gifts are in the top 5% of even the NBA. He's risky, but there's a chance he could really blow up with a few years of development.

El_Diablo
04-04-2018, 09:54 PM
The quotes for much of the season have made it clear he was leaving. He mentioned previously that the UNC game was his last in Cameron.

I thought this had been debunked (and that his quote was actually about it being the last game in Cameron for “this team”). That’s neither here nor there though at this point.

53n206
04-04-2018, 10:05 PM
Thanks for your efforts. Much success in the future. Wish we could have seen more of you in Duke blue.

richardjackson199
04-04-2018, 10:05 PM
I'd bet Tre ends up a late first rounder. The NBA combine will help him more than almost anyone else. He also played really well in the NCAA tournament, which NBA scouts value very heavily.

He's a little raw, but the athletic gifts are in the top 5% of even the NBA. He's risky, but there's a chance he could really blow up with a few years of development.

Obviously I sure agree. Since when did a OAD freshman need to be a finished product to get drafted first round? I thought it was all about potential, and Duval's potential to be an NBA stud is through the roof.

But I'll go ahead and start warming up the bakery ovens just in case I'm wrong. :eek:

devildeac
04-04-2018, 10:11 PM
Obviously I sure agree. Since when did a OAD freshman need to be a finished product to get drafted first round? I thought it was all about potential, and Duval's potential to be an NBA stud is through the roof.

But I'll go ahead and start warming up the bakery ovens just in case I'm wrong. :eek:

I don't want to see any banners hung regarding any of your bakery products. :rolleyes:

Furniture
04-04-2018, 10:17 PM
Good luck to the young man. I have supported him through the season and it showed apparently because someone asked me if I was any relation to him. LOL! I actually think FlyingDD was a bigger cheerleader than me.

What is saw in this young man was a nice kid who said all the right things about his team and Duke. I read his story about his relationship with his Dad. I felt that his Dad was also very supportive and not an entitled parent type which Duke sometimes gets. I also saw his relationship with his team mates and I felt that K and the coaches always supported him. There must be a reason for that. I think he played great for Duke and he has tremendous potential in the NBA. I think he will go first round.

One the other side many on this forum only saw his mistakes. In some games other players turned the ball over more or missed more three pointers but only TD’s mistakes were highlighted. Favouritism for other players or something else along the lines of for some reason suggesting that he is just not the college type.

Bluedog
04-04-2018, 10:17 PM
I thought this had been debunked (and that his quote was actually about it being the last game in Cameron for “this team”). That’s neither here nor there though at this point.

Eh... If you watch the video, it's pretty clear Duval suggests it was his last game in Cameron. Having said that, the reporter asked a very leading question that was intended to get that type of response.

Good luck Tre!

kshepinthehouse
04-04-2018, 10:31 PM
He will get drafted (probably round 2), and will play in the NBA next year. What he does from there, nobody knows. But he is going to be in the NBA next year.

Maybe the original poster meant that he will mostly play in the G-league next year which is accurate I believe. Also, he may be in the NBA next year but I agree that he won’t be able to help an NBA team next year. He is a couple years away, which everyone knows. The NBA will be great for him to solely focus on basketball and his weaknesses.

UrinalCake
04-04-2018, 10:40 PM
I'd bet Tre ends up a late first rounder. The NBA combine will help him more than almost anyone else. He also played really well in the NCAA tournament, which NBA scouts value very heavily.

I feel like NBA scouts already know that he has elite athleticism. That’s been apparent in scouting reports for years. Yet they still have him projected in the second round. For guys like Frank Jackson and MP1, their combine numbers were a surprise because they didn’t show it as much on the court and didn’t get a ton of playing time. They also already know how he performed in the tournament, because these mocks are really recent. Maybe Duval will show “really really elite” numbers, even better than expected, but I kind of doubt that. And his ability to actually use that athleticism in a positive way on the court was severely hampered by poor decision making.

indy1duke
04-04-2018, 10:41 PM
Times have certainly changed. It was bad enough that Frank Jackson left after one year only to be a second round draft pick. At least the buzz was that he believed he would go in the first round. Now we have freshmen leaving Duke with strong prospects of being drafted in the second round and prospects of playing ball in Wyoming or North Dakota in front of no one while trying to gain the experience to get to the NBA. Maybe the Duke experience which so many of us treasured is no longer what it is cracked up to be. Maybe it is the realization that the draft is all about potential and not about how good you are and it is better to fool people as a freshman rather than confirm to the scouts that you really aren’t much better as a sophomore or junior. I appreciate all Trevon’s efforts at Duke. Of all the members of that class he had the most difficulty meeting the expectations that a top ten recruit and number one point guard carried. When I predicted great results for this year’s team it was based in large measure on Trevon’s high ranking. (Finally we had a point guard after a year of no point guard.). He has lots of potential but he just wasn’t that good this year. He might have been great next year or when he was a junior. I wonder if we are reaching a point where one and done will mean even if no one drafts me I am one and done. (By the way I have never expected Trevon to return to Duke.)

Furniture
04-04-2018, 10:53 PM
Times have certainly changed. It was bad enough that Frank Jackson left after one year only to be a second round draft pick. At least the buzz was that he believed he would go in the first round. Now we have freshmen leaving Duke with strong prospects of being drafted in the second round and prospects of playing ball in Wyoming or North Dakota in front of no one while trying to gain the experience to get to the NBA. Maybe the Duke experience which so many of us treasured is no longer what it is cracked up to be. Maybe it is the realization that the draft is all about potential and not about how good you are and it is better to fool people as a freshman rather than confirm to the scouts that you really aren’t much better as a sophomore or junior. I appreciate all Trevon’s efforts at Duke. Of all the members of that class he had the most difficulty meeting the expectations that a top ten recruit and number one point guard carried. When I predicted great results for this year’s team it was based in large measure on Trevon’s high ranking. (Finally we had a point guard after a year of no point guard.). He has lots of potential but he just wasn’t that good this year. He might have been great next year or when he was a junior. I wonder if we are reaching a point where one and done will mean even if no one drafts me I am one and done. (By the way I have never expected Trevon to return to Duke.)


Frank has has sat out the year injured earning 800K. Next year he will play and earn 1.3MUSD.
If that is ‘only’ second round money then at least I don think it’s a bad decision.

Kedsy
04-04-2018, 11:41 PM
Times have certainly changed. It was bad enough that Frank Jackson left after one year only to be a second round draft pick. At least the buzz was that he believed he would go in the first round. Now we have freshmen leaving Duke with strong prospects of being drafted in the second round and prospects of playing ball in Wyoming or North Dakota in front of no one while trying to gain the experience to get to the NBA. Maybe the Duke experience which so many of us treasured is no longer what it is cracked up to be. Maybe it is the realization that the draft is all about potential and not about how good you are and it is better to fool people as a freshman rather than confirm to the scouts that you really aren’t much better as a sophomore or junior. I appreciate all Trevon’s efforts at Duke. Of all the members of that class he had the most difficulty meeting the expectations that a top ten recruit and number one point guard carried. When I predicted great results for this year’s team it was based in large measure on Trevon’s high ranking. (Finally we had a point guard after a year of no point guard.). He has lots of potential but he just wasn’t that good this year. He might have been great next year or when he was a junior. I wonder if we are reaching a point where one and done will mean even if no one drafts me I am one and done. (By the way I have never expected Trevon to return to Duke.)

If someone came to you after your freshman year of college and said, "I will pay you a million dollars a year for three years if you leave school right now. After that, maybe I'll employ you further, or if I don't you can go back to school, try to get another job, or sit at home and count your money." Would you say yes? I'm pretty sure I would have said yes, and pretty sure practically every poster on this board would would have said yes.

So it's not "bad enough," it's not that "the Duke experience which so many of us treasured is no longer what it is cracked up to be," it's not that a player can somehow learn more at Duke about their chosen profession then they can on the job (with some of the best teachers in the world). It's basically, the opportunity is out there in front of these kids and they've chosen to grab it. And we have no right to judge them harshly for doing so.

trinity92
04-04-2018, 11:51 PM
I also think he had to perhaps sacrifice more for this team than anyone. (Him or Carter).

Agreed. I think Duval was asked to be a pass-first point guard this year and that’s not really his game. He needs to be a bit more ball dominant to be at his best and there was no room for him to be that on this team for extended periods. I think he’ll be a much better NBA player than he was in college.

dukelifer
04-05-2018, 05:37 AM
Good luck to Tre. He will be a fascinating player to watch develop. His shooting and decision making will need to get markedly better to be a NBA point guard - but it is up to him to put in the time.

indy1duke
04-05-2018, 06:08 AM
Frank has has sat out the year injured earning 800K. Next year he will play and earn 1.3MUSD.
If that is ‘only’ second round money then at least I don think it’s a bad decision.

While that seems like a lot of money, how does that compare with returning to Duke, learning from Coach K, improving his point guard skills, gaining confidence, growing as a person and a player, possibly leading Duke to the Final Four, and moving up in the draft which would mean a lot more money and a guaranteed contract?

CDu
04-05-2018, 07:37 AM
While that seems like a lot of money, how does that compare with returning to Duke, learning from Coach K, improving his point guard skills, gaining confidence, growing as a person and a player, possibly leading Duke to the Final Four, and moving up in the draft which would mean a lot more money and a guaranteed contract?

I don’t know. Why don’t you ask Jackson? Because apparently to him the opportunity to live out his dream was more important. Would it be worse to return, get hurt or fail to improve, and make your draft stock worse? All while delaying your dream a year?

Here’s the thing: for many, if not all, of these kids, the NBA is their dream. Not Duke, not Kentucky, not UNC, not any college. They may indeed love Coach K, and even Duke. But the NBA is the dream. So when presented the opportunity to actually realize their dream AND get paid a boatload of money, it is pretty hard to say no.

BD80
04-05-2018, 07:56 AM
If someone came to you after your freshman year of college and said, "I will pay you a million dollars a year for three years if you leave school right now. After that, maybe I'll employ you further, or if I don't you can go back to school, try to get another job, or sit at home and count your money." Would you say yes? I'm pretty sure I would have said yes, and pretty sure practically every poster on this board would would have said yes.

So it's not "bad enough," it's not that "the Duke experience which so many of us treasured is no longer what it is cracked up to be," it's not that a player can somehow learn more at Duke about their chosen profession then they can on the job (with some of the best teachers in the world). It's basically, the opportunity is out there in front of these kids and they've chosen to grab it. And we have no right to judge them harshly for doing so.

And you spend those three years training for your chosen profession with the best staff and facilities in the world, compete with the best in your profession in practice on a regular basis, during the season travel first class to major cities with international celebrities.

What 19 yo would ever be interested in that?

Heck no! I want to stay and get my degree in Sociology and help people!

lotusland
04-05-2018, 08:10 AM
Good luck to Tre. I hope players willingness to leave for the D or G league filters down to HS seniors too. If your goal is the NBA ASAP, why go to college?

camion
04-05-2018, 08:51 AM
Good luck to Tre. I hope players willingness to leave for the D or G league filters down to HS seniors too. If your goal is the NBA ASAP, why go to college?

I hate to use the term, but if your goal is also to "build your brand" on your way to the NBA then college is a good route.

Test question: Which players do you follow in the D/G league that you didn't start following while they were in college?

CDu
04-05-2018, 08:54 AM
Good luck to Tre. I hope players willingness to leave for the D or G league filters down to HS seniors too. If your goal is the NBA ASAP, why go to college?

Because despite its flaws, college is still widely considered the best path to the NBA. You get way more pub, get to hang out with folks your age, you get to be adored for a year, and maybe get a chance at an NCAA tourney. And in the absolute worst case, you hedge your bets if things go horribly wrong. And the pay in those other leagues just isn't sufficient to make it worthwhile. There is a reason pretty much everyone goes the college route over the paid alternatives.

Troublemaker
04-05-2018, 08:59 AM
Good luck to Tre. I hope players willingness to leave for the D or G league filters down to HS seniors too. If your goal is the NBA ASAP, why go to college?

Because Trevon will make about $1 million guaranteed next season and will have a franchise that has invested at least a little bit of something (2nd-round draft pick) into developing him. The Darius Bazley kid who's doing HS-to-GLeague will make $26,000 and won't have an affiliation with an NBA team.

It's not like Bazley is the first player ever to think, "Why don't I just go to the D-league for a year?" He was the first (actually second (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latavious_Williams)) to decide that route is more appealing than college.

flyingdutchdevil
04-05-2018, 09:39 AM
If someone came to you after your freshman year of college and said, "I will pay you a million dollars a year for three years if you leave school right now. After that, maybe I'll employ you further, or if I don't you can go back to school, try to get another job, or sit at home and count your money." Would you say yes? I'm pretty sure I would have said yes, and pretty sure practically every poster on this board would would have said yes.

So it's not "bad enough," it's not that "the Duke experience which so many of us treasured is no longer what it is cracked up to be," it's not that a player can somehow learn more at Duke about their chosen profession then they can on the job (with some of the best teachers in the world). It's basically, the opportunity is out there in front of these kids and they've chosen to grab it. And we have no right to judge them harshly for doing so.

Yup. This sums it up pretty well. I'm pretty sure those who hate players leaving early are also the same folks who would jump at a raise in their current job. Only instead of a $10K raise, you're getting a $2M raise (unless you played at Zona. Then it's only a $1.9M raise).

More power to Duval. With Jones coming in, he made the right move.

Duke95
04-05-2018, 09:58 AM
If someone came to you after your freshman year of college and said, "I will pay you a million dollars a year for three years if you leave school right now. After that, maybe I'll employ you further, or if I don't you can go back to school, try to get another job, or sit at home and count your money." Would you say yes? I'm pretty sure I would have said yes, and pretty sure practically every poster on this board would would have said yes.


Anyone who says no to this offer is behaving irrationally. The (bit less than) $3M is greater than the present value of an expected college degree over one's lifetime of earnings.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-05-2018, 09:59 AM
Anyone who says no to this offer is behaving irrationally. The (bit less than) $3M is greater than the present value of an expected college degree over one's lifetime of earnings.

Not to mention, one in this position can always return to school if they felt the interest or need.

CDu
04-05-2018, 10:01 AM
Anyone who says no to this offer is behaving irrationally. The (bit less than) $3M is greater than the present value of an expected college degree over one's lifetime of earnings.

Technically, this is not necessarily true. It is only true if money is the primary contributing factor to one's happiness. A rational decision only requires that you act in a manner that maximizes your utility. If, for example, such a decision were guaranteed to ruin your life beyond the money, it would not be rational to accept.

That being said, for the vast majority of folks facing such an offer, the rational decision is indeed to take the money and run.

Sir Stealth
04-05-2018, 10:12 AM
Count me as one who thinks that Duval will have a successful NBA career. He strikes me as someone who is willing to put in the work required to get better, and I think that he will maximize his natural ability with time.

In the era we are in, the top prospects coming out of high school/AAU plan to go to the NBA as soon as possible. There was a time in between "almost everyone stays 4 years" and now where players would come in and see how things went, then leave as soon as their stock was high enough. That mentality still exists for mid-range prospects, but the top prospects are almost all going to stick with their original plan to go pro regardless.

Ironically, Duke, with it's reputation as an institution that pursues overall excellence, actually seems to attract the most motivated, ambitious players who are even more determined to pursue careers as professionals. Many fans understandably still have difficulty seeing how a player can truly value the Duke experience and still be so eager to leave, but it's clear when you listen to players like Bagley and Duval talk about it there is no conflict there. They have bought into the idea that a one year stop at Duke enters you into the Duke experience ("brotherhood") for life, and that they will continue to be part of the Duke brand and the Duke pursuit of excellence as they pursue their dream to compete with the best. That's the recruiting pitch, and that seems to be how top players feel that they can get real value out of the year that they are required to play college ball. I even believe that most truly value their academic experience and put in that work as well, to the extent it doesn't get in the way of their basketball (chosen career path) obligations. These guys are also by their nature true competitors, and I'm sure they also cared deeply about the team results on the court. But the NBA remains the ultimate goal above all others, and what they have been putting in the work for their whole lives.

Jeffrey
04-05-2018, 10:15 AM
Technically, this is not necessarily true. It is only true if money is the primary contributing factor to one's happiness. A rational decision only requires that you act in a manner that maximizes your utility. If, for example, such a decision were guaranteed to ruin your life beyond the money, it would not be rational to accept.

That being said, for the vast majority of folks facing such an offer, the rational decision is indeed to take the money and run.

It's also not monetarily true for the average Duke grad.

Truth&Justise
04-05-2018, 10:16 AM
I hope Trevon finds success at the next level, however I really don't understand the rush to hire an agent.

With the new system that's in place you have time to make an informed decision on your future. By hiring an agent there's no turning back.

Others have addressed the general benefits of turning pro, but I wanted to make one other small point: there is value to having an agent when approaching the draft.

An agent has relationships with NBA teams and can leverage that to arrange for workouts, seek out guarantees, and lobby for drafting you. An agent can also help advise on the best way to maximize your appeal to NBA teams: work with this trainer, go to this workout but not this one, talk to this person at this team, oh and let me leak a story from a scout raving about your heretofore-unknown-ability, etc. Now, a well-connected coach like K, with the resources Duke has, can give you a lot of similar advice. But for an agent, it is literally his/her job to protect your best interest, and that kind of focused attention can help when preparing for a professional career.


So yes, there is a cost to hiring an agent: you irreversibly lose your college eligibility. But if you are inclined to declare for the draft, and it doesn't seem like a terrible decision (e.g. you'll likely be picked, the coaching staff supports that decision), then there is value in hiring someone with experience to help you navigate the process.

azzefkram
04-05-2018, 10:21 AM
Best of luck, Tre. I really enjoyed your time at Duke and wish you the best in the NBA and beyond.

Wander
04-05-2018, 10:34 AM
It's also not monetarily true for the average Duke grad.

Yeah, I looked it up – $3M is about the expected value of a Duke degree over a lifetime. I wonder how that compares to the expected value for a Duke basketball player who doesn't make the NBA. I'm not sure it's obvious that leaving school to be a second round pick is on average better than staying for another year (of course, you may consider it better because it's lower risk, or better for non-financial reasons).

rsvman
04-05-2018, 10:48 AM
Granted that I chose the absolute lowest paid doctoring job that an MD could possibly choose, and that I made some very poor financial decisions with regard to deferring versus paying back school loans early on, he'll still be able to make in ONE YEAR about what I have managed to amass for retirement after 30 (count 'em THIRTY) years of working as a doctor. And he'll be grossing more than 5 times my annual salary.

Other than that, though, it's a crappy job, lol.


Put me down on the Duval supporter side of the ledger, please. I always liked the guy. Sure, he made some dumb decisions, the worst of which was the end of the Boston College game, but he also saved our bacon against Florida State and made some huge plays/shots when we needed them most. He played great in the tournament, too. I wish him the best of luck.

kAzE
04-05-2018, 11:04 AM
Only 3 things in life are certain: Death, Taxes, and debates on the merits of one and done on DBR in April.

Duke95
04-05-2018, 11:13 AM
Technically, this is not necessarily true. It is only true if money is the primary contributing factor to one's happiness. A rational decision only requires that you act in a manner that maximizes your utility. If, for example, such a decision were guaranteed to ruin your life beyond the money, it would not be rational to accept.

That being said, for the vast majority of folks facing such an offer, the rational decision is indeed to take the money and run.

If someone is willing to pay your a million dollars for your sports talents, it means you've already invested sufficient time and effort to put yourself in that position. So your scenario is implausible. Can there be some special case that is an exception? Possibly. But you're just arguing for the sake of argument here.

Duke95
04-05-2018, 11:16 AM
Yeah, I looked it up – $3M is about the expected value of a Duke degree over a lifetime. I wonder how that compares to the expected value for a Duke basketball player who doesn't make the NBA. I'm not sure it's obvious that leaving school to be a second round pick is on average better than staying for another year (of course, you may consider it better because it's lower risk, or better for non-financial reasons).

Would like to see that link...number seems high, which indicates it's not discounted to PV.

This site seems to say the 30-year PV is $1.83M. https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/duke-university/outcomes/return-on-investment/

Acymetric
04-05-2018, 11:27 AM
Would like to see that link...number seems high, which indicates it's not discounted to PV.

This site seems to say the 30-year PV is $1.83M. https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/duke-university/outcomes/return-on-investment/

That seems low to me...the average Duke student makes an average salary of $60,000 over their first 30 years of employment? I suppose they are using net income, which would make sense in a way but is a little misleading if not clearly stated. And your link specifically says it is setting aside PV so that $1.83 mil would be even lower with it factored in.

Wander
04-05-2018, 11:34 AM
Would like to see that link...number seems high, which indicates it's not discounted to PV.

This site seems to say the 30-year PV is $1.83M. https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/duke-university/outcomes/return-on-investment/

That's 30 years from high school, so to an age of 48. I extrapolated to retirement age and removed the tuition costs.

flyingdutchdevil
04-05-2018, 11:53 AM
That seems low to me...the average Duke student makes an average salary of $60,000 over their first 30 years of employment? I suppose they are using net income, which would make sense in a way but is a little misleading if not clearly stated. And your link specifically says it is setting aside PV so that $1.83 mil would be even lower with it factored in.

Present value. Meaning every year would be 60000 in today’s dollars. No idea what the discount rate is. Probably inflation, maybe a little higher.

Duke95
04-05-2018, 11:53 AM
That's 30 years from high school, so to an age of 48. I extrapolated to retirement age and removed the tuition costs.

Ok, so discount that to PV and you'll likely get something much lower than $3M. Taking $3M in 3 years while young is a no-brainer of a decision.

devildeac
04-05-2018, 12:13 PM
Only 3 things in life are certain: Death, Taxes, and debates on the merits of one and done on DBR in April.

4.

You forgot this:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?40596-2017-18-Minutes-Contest-Make-Your-Picks-Here!

;):rolleyes:

CDu
04-05-2018, 12:19 PM
If someone is willing to pay your a million dollars for your sports talents, it means you've already invested sufficient time and effort to put yourself in that position. So your scenario is implausible. Can there be some special case that is an exception? Possibly. But you're just arguing for the sake of argument here.

Not really. It's simply not true that it is unequivocally irrational to say "no." A few things that you've ignored:
1. Is this is a one-time offer, or will it be offered again next year?
2. Could the offer be even better next year, such that it offsets the one-year delay in said earnings?
3. Relatedly, what is the risk that the offer is worse next year?
4. How much does waiting a year affect the earnings at the end of your career?
5. How much do you place value on your life experiences as an 18/19/20 year old in college relative to earnings?

You have presented this as a "$3 million or nothing" argument. It's simply not that simple.

Now, I do agree that for many (if not the vast majority) the decision is an easy one. And that is why most go pro when the opportunity presents itself. But it just isn't as simple as "it's irrational to choose to come back". Those who do choose to come back aren't necessarily making an irrational choice. Their choice may very well be rational given how they feel about the above points (and others).

Jeffrey
04-05-2018, 12:31 PM
Granted that I chose the absolute lowest paid doctoring job that an MD could possibly choose, and that I made some very poor financial decisions with regard to deferring versus paying back school loans early on, he'll still be able to make in ONE YEAR about what I have managed to amass for retirement after 30 (count 'em THIRTY) years of working as a doctor. And he'll be grossing more than 5 times my annual salary.


If you want some free (and worth every penny!) financial advice, then send me a PM.

Jeffrey
04-05-2018, 12:34 PM
Would like to see that link...number seems high, which indicates it's not discounted to PV.

This site seems to say the 30-year PV is $1.83M. https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/duke-university/outcomes/return-on-investment/

IIRC, the average Duke grad. currently makes $150k per year during mid-career (post-graduation years 10+).

kako
04-05-2018, 12:34 PM
Best of luck to Duval. I hope he's wildly successful so that I can count him as a great Duke product in the NBA.

There are a lot of angles to look at why a kid would stay or go. One thing I think is that a kid may just want to play ball. Maybe he doesn't want to go to class. Maybe he wants to work out full time to hone his skills, without NCAA restrictions about when he can do so and also requiring him to take courses that he really doesn't want to take. Maybe it's not about getting the best contract, making the most money, etc. Maybe he just wants to make basketball his full-time job. This is totally his right to do, his choice about his desire to chase his dream. Anyone can stand on the sideline and say, "Well, he'd be better off if...". but it's not their life. It's his... So go forth, young man! Thanks for your efforts this year at Duke. Now make your mark!

Jeffrey
04-05-2018, 12:36 PM
That seems low to me...the average Duke student makes an average salary of $60,000 over their first 30 years of employment?

Agreed, most Duke grads make more than $60k per year.

CDu
04-05-2018, 12:51 PM
IIRC, the average Duke grad. currently makes $150k per year during mid-career (post-graduation years 10+).

That is probably high if you're looking at the median, but it's probably true for the average. But the average is skewed upwards.

That being said, I'd expect that the median mid-career salary for a Duke grad is still a good bit higher than $60K.

But that's all sort of beside the point. The hypothetical $3 million offer isn't a one-time offer only. It will likely be a similar offer next year. And there is a chance that, by returning, one could double (mid-first rounder) or triple (low/mid lottery pick) that initial offer with a big year next year. So even if you are only looking at the money, it's not a given that the optimal rational decision is to take the money today.

That's not to say that choosing to go or choosing to stay is the clearly rationally superior choice. Just that it isn't necessarily as simple as "you take the $3 million now".

Duke79UNLV77
04-05-2018, 12:52 PM
Not really. It's simply not true that it is unequivocally irrational to say "no." A few things that you've ignored:
1. Is this is a one-time offer, or will it be offered again next year?
2. Could the offer be even better next year, such that it offsets the one-year delay in said earnings?
3. Relatedly, what is the risk that the offer is worse next year?
4. How much does waiting a year affect the earnings at the end of your career?
5. How much do you place value on your life experiences as an 18/19/20 year old in college relative to earnings?

You have presented this as a "$3 million or nothing" argument. It's simply not that simple.

Now, I do agree that for many (if not the vast majority) the decision is an easy one. And that is why most go pro when the opportunity presents itself. But it just isn't as simple as "it's irrational to choose to come back". Those who do choose to come back aren't necessarily making an irrational choice. Their choice may very well be rational given how they feel about the above points (and others).

The calculus in most players' minds used to be go if you are a lottery pick. Then, it became to go if you are a clear first round pick. Now, it seems to be to go if you may get drafted at all. Duval is a tough case because the projections for him vary so widely, from mid-1st round to mid-2nd round. If the latter, I think the better decision financially could be to return. Assuming he could improve markedly on his weaknesses, which I believe he would, his strengths could allow him to leap towards the lottery. There's always a downside risk, but I think Duval had more of an upside opportunity if he had returned than any of the other freshmen did. Either way, I think he'll be fine because he has the talent to stick in the league and make more money playing a game than most of us ever will make.

The reality is that very few players of any significant talent these days -- Allen may have been one of the last exceptions -- dream of playing at Duke or other big-time schools for 4 years. They dream of the NBA and, at most, playing for Duke and winning a national title as a freshman on their way to the NBA.

CDu
04-05-2018, 12:53 PM
The reality is that very few players of any significant talent these days -- Allen may have been one of the last exceptions -- dream of playing at Duke or other big-time schools for 4 years. They dream of the NBA and, at most, playing for Duke and winning a national title as a freshman on their way to the NBA.

There are one or two first round picks nearly every year that choose to stay. Miles Bridges did so last year. Daniel Gafford is doing so this year. It certainly isn't the norm, but it isn't exactly a complete rarity either.

Jeffrey
04-05-2018, 12:59 PM
That is probably high if you're looking at the median, but it's probably true for the average. But the average is skewed upwards.

That being said, I'd expect that the median mid-career salary for a Duke grad is still a good bit higher than $60K.


True, I helped my argument by saying average. However, I'm surprised any Duke grad believes $60k is close to accurate.

This site shows mid-career (10 years+) at a median of $143,900:

https://www.payscale.com/college-salary-report/all-bachelors

Spanarkel
04-05-2018, 01:03 PM
There are one or two first round picks nearly every year that choose to stay. Miles Bridges did so last year. Daniel Gafford is doing so this year. It certainly isn't the norm, but it isn't exactly a complete rarity either.

Duke79UNLV77's post mentioned very talented players staying for a four year career, whereas Miles Bridge stayed two years and Gafford was a freshman this season.

CDu
04-05-2018, 01:09 PM
Duke79UNLV77's post mentioned very talented players staying for a four year career, whereas Miles Bridge stayed two years and Gafford was a freshman this season.

Oops, my bad. Yes, 4-year guys who were All-Americans as sophomores are going to be pretty rare. Carry on.

Ian
04-05-2018, 01:09 PM
Sure Duke grads make more than 60,000 a year, but the value of the college degree is not how much you earn with the degree, but how much more you earn compared to not having a degree.

If the average HS grad with no college degree makes say 30K a year. Then you're income would have to be 90K for the college education to have a value of 60K.

Duke95
04-05-2018, 02:13 PM
Agreed, most Duke grads make more than $60k per year.

I'd certainly expect a Duke grad to make a higher salary than $60k per year, but I haven't seen any data to that effect. If you have, can you share?

uh_no
04-05-2018, 02:19 PM
I'd certainly expect a Duke grad to make a higher salary than $60k per year, but I haven't seen any data to that effect. If you have, can you share?

i mean, someone posted the mean duke grad salary mid career is 150k.

Expected value is built of the mean.

Duke95
04-05-2018, 02:43 PM
i mean, someone posted the mean duke grad salary mid career is 150k.

Expected value is built of the mean.

Here's what someone posted: "IIRC, the average Duke grad. currently makes $150k per year during mid-career (post-graduation years 10+)." That was Jeffery.

I'm asking if there are any data that back that up. You know, as in sources.

Duke95
04-05-2018, 02:50 PM
Ah, here are some data from payscale.com:
https://www.payscale.com/college-salary-report/bachelors?page=101

Duke at $134k, mid-career, but looking at their methodology, this seems really suspect. Wouldn't give this much weight.

uh_no
04-05-2018, 03:07 PM
Ah, here are some data from payscale.com:
https://www.payscale.com/college-salary-report/bachelors?page=101

Duke at $134k, mid-career, but looking at their methodology, this seems really suspect. Wouldn't give this much weight.

https://www.collegeatlas.org/colleges-average-salary.html

similar ballpark, also discludes many high-paying careers...which encompasses a huge % of duke grads

5 years ago the times had the median at ~90k. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/college-mobility/duke-university

sagegrouse
04-05-2018, 04:09 PM
That is probably high if you're looking at the median, but it's probably true for the average. But the average is skewed upwards.

That being said, I'd expect that the median mid-career salary for a Duke grad is still a good bit higher than $60K.

But that's all sort of beside the point. The hypothetical $3 million offer isn't a one-time offer only. It will likely be a similar offer next year. And there is a chance that, by returning, one could double (mid-first rounder) or triple (low/mid lottery pick) that initial offer with a big year next year. So even if you are only looking at the money, it's not a given that the optimal rational decision is to take the money today.

That's not to say that choosing to go or choosing to stay is the clearly rationally superior choice. Just that it isn't necessarily as simple as "you take the $3 million now".

I expect the average is three times the median in most Duke classes after ten years.

Devilwin
04-05-2018, 04:47 PM
He is going to find rough going. But he is tough, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the NBA. I predicted he was gone, and he will be a second rounder, probably late second round. But with Tre Jones coming in, well, you know the rest.

Furniture
04-05-2018, 04:57 PM
Thread hijack?

Jeffrey
04-05-2018, 05:20 PM
I expect the average is three times the median in most Duke classes after ten years.

I'd like to make a serious wager on the average being under three times the median.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-05-2018, 05:21 PM
I'd like to make a serious wager on the average being under three times the median.

That's a lot of pie.

Furniture
04-05-2018, 08:39 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/981699376266530817/video/1

How can anyone not like this kid?

“I loved my time here at Duke and I enjoyed every second of it. I want to thank all of the Duke fans, thank each of my teammates – they’re all brothers to me.”

kshepinthehouse
04-05-2018, 08:47 PM
The calculus in most players' minds used to be go if you are a lottery pick. Then, it became to go if you are a clear first round pick. Now, it seems to be to go if you may get drafted at all. Duval is a tough case because the projections for him vary so widely, from mid-1st round to mid-2nd round. If the latter, I think the better decision financially could be to return. Assuming he could improve markedly on his weaknesses, which I believe he would, his strengths could allow him to leap towards the lottery. There's always a downside risk, but I think Duval had more of an upside opportunity if he had returned than any of the other freshmen did. Either way, I think he'll be fine because he has the talent to stick in the league and make more money playing a game than most of us ever will make.

The reality is that very few players of any significant talent these days -- Allen may have been one of the last exceptions -- dream of playing at Duke or other big-time schools for 4 years. They dream of the NBA and, at most, playing for Duke and winning a national title as a freshman on their way to the NBA.

He can’t improve on those things in the NBA?

richardjackson199
04-05-2018, 08:54 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/981699376266530817/video/1

How can anyone not like this kid?

“I loved my time here at Duke and I enjoyed every second of it. I want to thank all of the Duke fans, thank each of my teammates – they’re all brothers to me.”

Duval was one of my favorite point guards ever at Duke. His extra gear is special, and he is going to do special things in the NBA. I wish him nothing but utmost success, all the best, and am thankful he chose to be Duke's point guard this year.

Duke79UNLV77
04-05-2018, 10:52 PM
He can’t improve on those things in the NBA?

He can, but if he improved them next year in college, he could move way up in the draft, which could earn him a lot more money. Also, the NBA actually has little time for team practices once the season starts. So, if he’s out of the rotation, ge’ll Need to rely a lot on individual work. That said, I think he’ll succeed because he has elite athleticism, can finish at the rim, excellent court vision for passes (though still suspect decision-making), and a good work ethic.

sagegrouse
04-05-2018, 11:04 PM
I'd like to make a serious wager on the average being under three times the median.

I dunno. My row in freshman assembly at Duke had 11 deadbeats and one future billionaire. I dunno about "income," but the average net worth may have been 50-200 times the median. Don't overlook the ability of a few racking up serious eight-figure incomes distorting the average for an entire class.

Actually, Jeffrey you're one of my candidates for serious "distortion."

Kindly,
Sage

Duke95
04-05-2018, 11:19 PM
I dunno. My row in freshman assembly at Duke had 11 deadbeats and one future billionaire.

If you were there during my time, I'm guessing you may be referring to Ralph Lauren's kid.

flyingdutchdevil
04-06-2018, 08:16 AM
Duval was one of my favorite point guards ever at Duke. His extra gear is special, and he is going to do special things in the NBA. I wish him nothing but utmost success, all the best, and am thankful he chose to be Duke's point guard this year.

Me too. I love the dude. He was a flawed PG as a freshman, but damn was he exciting to watch.

I'll miss ya, Tricky!

Saratoga2
04-06-2018, 08:23 AM
He can’t improve on those things in the NBA?

If he could improve his play at Duke then it stands to reason that he could also in the NBA where he would get a more intense training and coaching regiment.

MarkD83
04-06-2018, 08:33 AM
He can’t improve on those things in the NBA?

The NBA of today looks for specialized players who excel in one or two areas. These players then fill in around the superstars. So any player with one or two great skills can do well in the NBA without expanding their skills

gus
04-06-2018, 09:09 AM
I dunno. My row in freshman assembly at Duke had 11 deadbeats and one future billionaire. I dunno about "income," but the average net worth may have been 50-200 times the median. Don't overlook the ability of a few racking up serious eight-figure incomes distorting the average for an entire class.

Actually, Jeffrey you're one of my candidates for serious "distortion."

Kindly,
Sage

Class of '86?

coldriver10
04-06-2018, 09:38 AM
The problem with the argument about coming back and potentially making more money by improving draft position is that the "real" money is in the 2nd contract, and getting there one year earlier (if you're successful) has the potential to blow the extra million or so that was made by getting drafted higher out of the water.

When I was in medical school, I had classmates who had their (very expensive) medical education paid for, either by the MD/PhD program or by the military. With loans, that amount becomes several hundreds of thousands of dollars. But, with the possible exception of primary care, the difference is more than made up by reaching attending salary earlier/in the civilian sector. (Obviously, people do MD/PhD and join the military for reasons much greater than having no loans.) And it's not all about the money. In high school in Florida, I had the option of applying to a combined program at U Miami that would have led to an undergrad and MD degree in 6 years...meaning 2 years earlier to attending salary AND a guaranteed acceptance to medical school. Both of those seemed HUGE! But I didn't want to miss out on the college experience, and Duke was my dream school.

So while I fully understand players jumping early, the Grayson Allens and the Miles Bridges prove it's not just about the money for someone who loves college enough to spend some more time in an environment that realistically, they only get to experience once (going back to school after years off just isn't the same thing as far as experience goes). As for Duval, he is certainly taking a gamble as he runs the risk of not getting any sort of guaranteed contract, but it's one that could pay off handsomely for him. More power to him for betting on himself.

Jeffrey
04-06-2018, 11:18 AM
I dunno. My row in freshman assembly at Duke had 11 deadbeats and one future billionaire. I dunno about "income," but the average net worth may have been 50-200 times the median. Don't overlook the ability of a few racking up serious eight-figure incomes distorting the average for an entire class.

Actually, Jeffrey you're one of my candidates for serious "distortion."

Kindly,
Sage

I strongly agree that average net worth is substantially more than three times mean! I know some nine and ten digit players who have done an excellent job staying below most radars. One just explained to me that his wife could not go with my wife to Vegas this weekend because they had to "save money" for his only daughter's wedding next year. I could not control my laughter.

jimsumner
04-06-2018, 11:21 AM
If he could improve his play at Duke then it stands to reason that he could also in the NBA where he would get a more intense training and coaching regiment.

Nah. To get a coaching regiment, he'd have to join the military.

sagegrouse
04-06-2018, 11:26 AM
If you were there during my time, I'm guessing you may be referring to Ralph Lauren's kid.

Uh, no. My daughter, not I, was in your class.

uh_no
04-06-2018, 12:15 PM
Uh, no. My daughter, not I, was in your class.

that's for letting me know!

bludevil_33
04-06-2018, 02:55 PM
If someone came to you after your freshman year of college and said, "I will pay you a million dollars a year for three years if you leave school right now. After that, maybe I'll employ you further, or if I don't you can go back to school, try to get another job, or sit at home and count your money." Would you say yes? I'm pretty sure I would have said yes, and pretty sure practically every poster on this board would would have said yes.

The 20-year old me certainly would have taken the million up front.

The 37-year old me would realize that, first, a million a year for three years is not guaranteed if you're going in the second round. Even then, $3 million is not nearly enough to live on for the rest of my life, and putting all my eggs in the basketball basket is risky. Better to continue getting a free Duke education until I can guarantee a rookie contract, unless I'm (worst case scenario) willing to live overseas into my late 20s.

I trust that Duval is getting solid advice from his Duke family, though.

kshepinthehouse
04-06-2018, 03:43 PM
The 20-year old me certainly would have taken the million up front.

The 37-year old me would realize that, first, a million a year for three years is not guaranteed if you're going in the second round. Even then, $3 million is not nearly enough to live on for the rest of my life, and putting all my eggs in the basketball basket is risky. Better to continue getting a free Duke education until I can guarantee a rookie contract, unless I'm (worst case scenario) willing to live overseas into my late 20s.

I trust that Duval is getting solid advice from his Duke family, though.

The 37 year old me would be even more likely to take the $3 million.

Duke95
04-06-2018, 03:52 PM
The 20-year old me certainly would have taken the million up front.

The 37-year old me would realize that, first, a million a year for three years is not guaranteed if you're going in the second round. Even then, $3 million is not nearly enough to live on for the rest of my life, and putting all my eggs in the basketball basket is risky. Better to continue getting a free Duke education until I can guarantee a rookie contract, unless I'm (worst case scenario) willing to live overseas into my late 20s.

I trust that Duval is getting solid advice from his Duke family, though.

This is a bad take for several reasons.

1. There is NO FREE DUKE EDUCATION. Athletes are paying education with their labor. College athletes are not getting anything "for free."
2. $3M doesn't have to be enough, because you can return to school after your make your $3M...or take classes toward your degree while you're making the money, like players sometimes do.
3. Living overseas is still a better deal. You get around $100k a year PLUS your living expenses & car are often pay for as well.

Your 37 year old self should listen to your 20-year old self.

dchen09
04-06-2018, 04:30 PM
And lets be real, the biggest benefit of a top institutions isn't the education you get from going to classes. You're going to get a similar (if not better) education from a state school if you're just relying on coursework. The real benefit is access to top level internships, access to cutting edge research, and access to the alumni network. When's the last time someone has hired based on your GPA?

If you're a college basketball player with known prospects to play in the NBA, I don't see significant tangible benefit (of course there is intangible benefits of getting a tremendous life experience) of staying in college when you can get a headstart on your career. Staying in college, you're unlikely to fully (or even marginally) take advantage of the educational benefits of college. Pursuing a pro career doesn't mean you can't go back to college to get the education you want, particularly since if you do decide to come back, you'll likely have more time to fully concentrate on the learning aspects of college.

bludevil_33
04-06-2018, 05:29 PM
This is a bad take for several reasons.

1. There is NO FREE DUKE EDUCATION. Athletes are paying education with their labor. College athletes are not getting anything "for free."
2. $3M doesn't have to be enough, because you can return to school after your make your $3M...or take classes toward your degree while you're making the money, like players sometimes do.
3. Living overseas is still a better deal. You get around $100k a year PLUS your living expenses & car are often pay for as well.

Your 37 year old self should listen to your 20-year old self.


You're still assuming that the $3 million is guaranteed. It's not if you're a second-rounder.

Am I going to leave my full-ride scholarship at age 20 to go on a job interview where I may have a 50/50 shot of getting the job?

You're also discounting the difference between holding a college degree at age 22 than holding one at age 28-32. You can go back to school after a career in Europe, but you better have spent that time building up your network and figuring out what you want to do when you get out. If you're focused solely on being a basketball player, you're going to find yourself retired from playing basketball in your early 30s and just entering the workforce.

dchen09
04-06-2018, 07:11 PM
You're still assuming that the $3 million is guaranteed. It's not if you're a second-rounder.

Am I going to leave my full-ride scholarship at age 20 to go on a job interview where I may have a 50/50 shot of getting the job?

You're also discounting the difference between holding a college degree at age 22 than holding one at age 28-32. You can go back to school after a career in Europe, but you better have spent that time building up your network and figuring out what you want to do when you get out. If you're focused solely on being a basketball player, you're going to find yourself retired from playing basketball in your early 30s and just entering the workforce.

Except the value of a college degree is nil these days. How many employers are going to want to hire you based on a degree? Now imagine yourself even 3-4 years out from college, and you don't have competitive work experience compared to 99% of the other applicants in your field. So what does that degree that you stayed in college for earn you? I'd argue its much much better to go back to school when you actually need the schooling. The whole point in staying in school is if you don't have the prospects of going pro, you can then leverage your degree into some other field directly out of college. However, if you ever have the prospects to earn 6 figures somewhere, its likely financially worthwhile to do that, even if its only for 2-3 years. In that time, you're focused 100% on being a basketball player. If it doesn't work out, you've still earned what, around $500k as a 2nd round type talent. Come back to a state school and pay 60k over 3 years to get a relevant degree and you have the chance to fully commit to said degree.

kshepinthehouse
04-06-2018, 07:14 PM
You're still assuming that the $3 million is guaranteed. It's not if you're a second-rounder.

Am I going to leave my full-ride scholarship at age 20 to go on a job interview where I may have a 50/50 shot of getting the job?

You're also discounting the difference between holding a college degree at age 22 than holding one at age 28-32. You can go back to school after a career in Europe, but you better have spent that time building up your network and figuring out what you want to do when you get out. If you're focused solely on being a basketball player, you're going to find yourself retired from playing basketball in your early 30s and just entering the workforce.

What workforce do you think the average basketball player enters in their early 30s? There probably isn’t one that would make him as much money as he could make by simply investing the money he makes in the NBA. Its not like most of these guys become high school algebra teachers when they leave professional basketball.

bludevil_33
04-06-2018, 08:42 PM
Except the value of a college degree is nil these days. How many employers are going to want to hire you based on a degree?

This is (http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/tomorrows-college/dropouts/value-of-college-degree.html) demonstrably untrue (http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/5-the-value-of-a-college-education/).

No one hires solely based off a degree. But lack of a degree absolutely makes candidates in many fields non-starters.

bludevil_33
04-06-2018, 08:50 PM
What workforce do you think the average basketball player enters in their early 30s? There probably isn’t one that would make him as much money as he could make by simply investing the money he makes in the NBA. Its not like most of these guys become high school algebra teachers when they leave professional basketball.

Again, 2nd rounders are not guaranteed a contract. If Trevon was a projected lottery pick, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. There is more risk involved in being a mid- to low-second-round draft pick as compared to a lottery pick.

That risk is the whole point. In general, it's more risky than staying in school. Now, I'm hedging that with the fact that there's probably a mountain of information out there (scouting reports, Duke's NBA connections, etc) that are telling Trevon his chances are better than 50/50, so who knows?

dchen09
04-06-2018, 09:19 PM
This is (http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/tomorrows-college/dropouts/value-of-college-degree.html) demonstrably untrue (http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/5-the-value-of-a-college-education/).

No one hires solely based off a degree. But lack of a degree absolutely makes candidates in many fields non-starters.

You're point (and correct me if I'm wrong) is that unless he gets a first round guarantee, him getting a free Duke education is less risk than a potential 2nd round pick. My point is the degree itself is not worth much, particularly if he's going to take a few years off pursuing his dream of playing basketball professionally anyways. Even if he doesn't get a first round guarantee, he will likely make more as a failed 2nd round pick or playing in Europe than he will from getting a degree from Duke. The reason why is because the average European salary is 60-100k. Brandon Jennings got $1.2 Mil. That money more than pays for 3 additional years of college (even at Duke).

However, the benefits of a Duke degree is all the work experience you get with it, not the training you get in the classroom. If you told me he will come back, but not play basketball, I wouldn't argue with you at all. But you're not. He won't be getting all the real academic benefits of a Duke degree. Furthermore, your link is an average of all majors. What we know is that Duval is not going to be majoring in any of the quantitative fields which tend to yield have the biggest increase in earning potential. Even if he did, no one is going to be hiring him based on a education he would have completed years in the past. Him leaving college a year earlier, even if he were to fail out of the NBA means he still starts earning his at minimum $60k a year salary a year earlier and it puts him in a position where he can pay for a degree straight out of his own pockets that is more relevant to what he wants to do and he can put more time into properly training for his next career.

Furniture
04-06-2018, 11:47 PM
Oh gosh yawn....

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-07-2018, 08:20 AM
Oh gosh yawn...

It's offseason, brah. Forget about it.

On topic...

This is the time of year where I allow myself to believe that "no news is good news," and that maybe those Duke players who haven't announced are sticking around.

Yes, I am delusional.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-07-2018, 11:29 AM
It's offseason, brah. Forget about it.

On topic...

This is the time of year where I allow myself to believe that "no news is good news," and that maybe those Duke players who haven't announced are sticking around.

Yes, I am delusional.

... And that didn't last long

Furniture
04-07-2018, 01:35 PM
It's offseason, brah. Forget about it.

On topic...

This is the time of year where I allow myself to believe that "no news is good news," and that maybe those Duke players who haven't announced are sticking around.

Yes, I am delusional.

You should have posted this in a ‘I’m not going to jinx it’ thread....

Rudy
10-25-2020, 09:51 PM
I saw this article today and found this thread to attach it to. Someone in the thread said Duval was in a tough spot, knowing that Tre Jones was coming in the next year. Looking at Jones’ stats in his two years, I wondered if his progress would have been delayed if Duval had stayed and (probably) began the year as the starting PG. Jones clearly had a good freshman year and a stellar sophomore year, so staying likely improved his standing in the NBA draft to take place next month.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2912558-trevon-duval-undrafted-duke-one-and-done-tries-to-keep-his-hoop-dreams-alive

uh_no
10-26-2020, 12:25 AM
I saw this article today and found this thread to attach it to. Someone in the thread said Duval was in a tough spot, knowing that Tre Jones was coming in the next year. Looking at Jones’ stats in his two years, I wondered if his progress would have been delayed if Duval had stayed and (probably) began the year as the starting PG. Jones clearly had a good freshman year and a stellar sophomore year, so staying likely improved his standing in the NBA draft to take place next month.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2912558-trevon-duval-undrafted-duke-one-and-done-tries-to-keep-his-hoop-dreams-alive

The same attitude that gave him a rocky year at duke was probably the same attitude that sealed his fate. His dad put it best:


I think he probably could've been a little bit more focused. Coming from being a 5-star athlete, sometimes you think that's enough. Every level is harder, gets harder and harder.

There are very few freshmen I'm not sad to see go, and he was one of them. He showed no humility, no want to play the team game, and K had to bench him at least twice during the year, and explicitly called him out for not doing what he was told. I recall he had some nasty words for Duke afterwards as well. THAT SAID, it is those people that probably MOST need more time in the program, so for his sake, I'm sorry that he turned down that opportunity.

I am glad, however, that he's finally seemed to get the does of humility that it sometimes takes. I think having to compete with Tre would have been EXACTLY the thing that would have helped him...in his own words on being a reserve player:


It can be real easy to get upset and mad and say, 'I should be playing' and have a bad attitude. I feel that was a big stepping stone for me as a player, because I never had to do that. For me to make do with what I had this season, I did a good job for myself, and I grew.

Good on him for finally learning that lesson. I wish him the best.

UrinalCake
10-26-2020, 09:04 AM
I saw this article today and found this thread to attach it to. Someone in the thread said Duval was in a tough spot, knowing that Tre Jones was coming in the next year. Looking at Jones’ stats in his two years, I wondered if his progress would have been delayed if Duval had stayed and (probably) began the year as the starting PG. Jones clearly had a good freshman year and a stellar sophomore year, so staying likely improved his standing in the NBA draft to take place next month.

First off, I think Duval would have been a phenomenal fit on the Zion team. He excelled in transition, but didn't get to show that much because the Bagley/Carter duo forced us into being a half court team that played zone D. With a year under his belt, I would have expected a huge jump from Duval had he chosen to stay. He always had the physical tools but needed the game to slow down and perhaps returning for another year would have humbled him enough to focus more on the intangibles.

As to how it would have affected Jones, he would have had his playing time cut down for sure. I don't imagine he and Duval would have shared the court much, as the combined three point shooting of those two would have been chilling (though I supposed Duval may have improved in the same way that Jones improved from his freshman to sophomore year). Jones's defense would have earned him plenty of minutes though. He definitely would have still stayed for his sophomore year, and probably would have made the same jump from that point.

Billy Dat
10-26-2020, 09:19 AM
Thanks for posting this article. I root for all our guys to do well after they leave and Tricky makes it sound like he's accepting responsibility for his part in not yet making an NBA roster.

Sometimes these things are very simple, you can't make an NBA team as a guard if you can't shoot. Fix that and he'll get a chance to get a chance and then he's got to perform when he gets it.

Ben McLemore is a good comp for him. It's night and day in that McLemore was a lottery pick and logged many years in the NBA before being let go but he kept working, sewed up the holes in his game, accepted what his limited role could be and tried to "star" in it, and now he seems like he's back until years rob his skills. I feel like they are the same type of player - crazy athletic guards who can't shoot. McLemore is now over 40% on 3s and defends like his next meal depends on it, because it does!

Good luck Tricky! I'll always remember that 20 and 6 against Kansas in the Elite Eight.

DukieInBrasil
10-26-2020, 09:42 AM
Thanks for posting this article. I root for all our guys to do well after they leave and Tricky makes it sound like he's accepting responsibility for his part in not yet making an NBA roster.
Sometimes these things are very simple, you can't make an NBA team as a guard if you can't shoot. Fix that and he'll get a chance to get a chance and then he's got to perform when he gets it.
Ben McLemore is a good comp for him. It's night and day in that McLemore was a lottery pick and logged many years in the NBA before being let go but he kept working, sewed up the holes in his game, accepted what his limited role could be and tried to "star" in it, and now he seems like he's back until years rob his skills. I feel like they are the same type of player - crazy athletic guards who can't shoot. McLemore is now over 40% on 3s and defends like his next meal depends on it, because it does!
Good luck Tricky! I'll always remember that 20 and 6 against Kansas in the Elite Eight.

Trevon actually has played in a couple of NBA games, but due to COVID (among other things) didn't make one during the previous season. I don't have a crystal ball so i don't know if he made headway towards making the NBA the coming season, but having not made an NBA appearance last year doesn't bode well. Your phrase "to star" in a limited role sounds exactly like what Duval needs to do, and it sounds like he may have made the mental adjustment necessary for him see that as his path back to the NBA.

nmduke2001
10-26-2020, 09:43 AM
Thanks for posting this article. I root for all our guys to do well after they leave and Tricky makes it sound like he's accepting responsibility for his part in not yet making an NBA roster.

Sometimes these things are very simple, you can't make an NBA team as a guard if you can't shoot. Fix that and he'll get a chance to get a chance and then he's got to perform when he gets it.

Ben McLemore is a good comp for him. It's night and day in that McLemore was a lottery pick and logged many years in the NBA before being let go but he kept working, sewed up the holes in his game, accepted what his limited role could be and tried to "star" in it, and now he seems like he's back until years rob his skills. I feel like they are the same type of player - crazy athletic guards who can't shoot. McLemore is now over 40% on 3s and defends like his next meal depends on it, because it does!

Good luck Tricky! I'll always remember that 20 and 6 against Kansas in the Elite Eight.

Duval struggles in his shooting and that will hinder his ability to play in the league because he isn't as good as Russell Westbrook (who he was often compared to) in other parts of the game. If you could combine Duval and Andre Dawkins, you'd have one heck of a player.

Dre is still one of my favorited Duke players ever. I was a little surprised that he didn't get more of a chance after having a lot of really big games in the G-League. He definitely could have filled a role like Duncan Robinson did in Miami.

rsvman
10-26-2020, 10:25 AM
Thanks for posting this article. I root for all our guys to do well after they leave and Tricky makes it sound like he's accepting responsibility for his part in not yet making an NBA roster.

Sometimes these things are very simple, you can't make an NBA team as a guard if you can't shoot. Fix that and he'll get a chance to get a chance and then he's got to perform when he gets it.

Ben McLemore is a good comp for him. It's night and day in that McLemore was a lottery pick and logged many years in the NBA before being let go but he kept working, sewed up the holes in his game, accepted what his limited role could be and tried to "star" in it, and now he seems like he's back until years rob his skills. I feel like they are the same type of player - crazy athletic guards who can't shoot. McLemore is now over 40% on 3s and defends like his next meal depends on it, because it does!

Good luck Tricky! I'll always remember that 20 and 6 against Kansas in the Elite Eight.

Sorry, but his idiotic try for a steal left a Kansas player wide open for a three that made it possible for us to lose that game. If he had stayed with his man, we would've been in the Final Four. 20 and 6 is great, and all, but when push came to shove he made a HUGE bone-headed play that ended up costing us the game.

And I liked the guy. Still do. But we have to be honest here. I guess you could argue that without his 20 and 6 we wouldn't have had a game to give away, and I suppose that's fair.

UrinalCake
10-26-2020, 12:06 PM
That gamble for the steal was bad. I don’t know if you can say it singlehandedly cost us the game, but it was frustrating for sure. I also remember the end of the UVA game in Cameron where he committed a bad turnover in the final minute trying to pitch it the length of the floor.

On the other hand he started off the season with 10 assists and 0 turnovers against MSU in an upset win where Bagley barely played. He set up Bagley for multiple dunks against UNC to give us that huge comeback win in Cameron. And he played through a sprained ankle against UNC in the rematch. So he had his moments.

johnb
10-28-2020, 07:34 AM
I’m tempted to say Duval’s comparables appear to be Derryck Thornton and Rasheed Sulaimon, since all of them were very athletic guys who didn’t seem to accept Duke coaching but who could probably play pick-up games with nba players and become convinced they were ready.

In this, they strike me as different from guys like Nolan or DeMarcus Nelson who didn’t make the league because, well, it’s just very difficult if you’re not freakishly tall.

I went looking for 2 seconds online, and didn’t find great data, but the consensus seems to be that only 1% of men are 6’4” and that there are only a few thousand Americans—of all ages—who are 6’9” (though that’s without shoes and creative accounting).

jv001
10-28-2020, 08:27 AM
I’m tempted to say Duval’s comparables appear to be Derryck Thornton and Rasheed Sulaimon, since all of them were very athletic guys who didn’t seem to accept Duke coaching but who could probably play pick-up games with nba players and become convinced they were ready.

In this, they strike me as different from guys like Nolan or DeMarcus Nelson who didn’t make the league because, well, it’s just very difficult if you’re not freakishly tall.

I went looking for 2 seconds online, and didn’t find great data, but the consensus seems to be that only 1% of men are 6’4” and that there are only a few thousand Americans—of all ages—who are 6’9” (though that’s without shoes and creative accounting).

I know you used the word "tempted" and I guess that was because Duval was not as good an outside shooter as Thornton and Sulaimon. Otherwise those are two good comparisons.

GoDuke!

sagegrouse
10-28-2020, 09:38 AM
That gamble for the steal was bad. I don’t know if you can say it singlehandedly cost us the game, but it was frustrating for sure. I also remember the end of the UVA game in Cameron where he committed a bad turnover in the final minute trying to pitch it the length of the floor.

On the other hand he started off the season with 10 assists and 0 turnovers against MSU in an upset win where Bagley barely played. He set up Bagley for multiple dunks against UNC to give us that huge comeback win in Cameron. And he played through a sprained ankle against UNC in the rematch. So he had his moments.

Against Kansas, we had a three-point lead AND the ball with under a minute to play. How did we not win that game? Wendell Carter makes a two-foot shot? We're home. Wendell doesn't clang it, so that there's a scrum for the rebound, limiting KU's chance for a run-out? We're home. Duval doesn't go for the steal? We have better defense and no clear shot at a three? We win. Grayson has the ball at the end, and he comes through like so many other times? We win. But the ball bounces out, and the game remains tied.

In OT there is a clear charge into Wendell Carter, who has four fouls, while is Duke ahead. Clear, I said. Call the charge? We win. Wendell never moved and he is DQed.

Not that I remember that game.

rsvman
10-28-2020, 11:01 AM
Against Kansas, we had a three-point lead AND the ball with under a minute to play. How did we not win that game? Wendell Carter makes a two-foot shot? We're home. Wendell doesn't clang it, so that there's a scrum for the rebound, limiting KU's chance for a run-out? We're home. Duval doesn't go for the steal? We have better defense and no clear shot at a three? We win. Grayson has the ball at the end, and he comes through like so many other times? We win. But the ball bounces out, and the game remains tied.

In OT there is a clear charge into Wendell Carter, who has four fouls, while is Duke ahead. Clear, I said. Call the charge? We win. Wendell never moved and he is DQed.

Not that I remember that game.

Still too soon.

Yeah, the charge call was egregious. That single call should have put to rest the mantra that "Duke gets all the calls." Apparently we don't. (And yes, I'm aware that it actually somehow DIDN'T put that old canard to rest.)

Personally, I think it was a mistake to put the game in Grayson's hands at the end of regulation. Too obvious, too predictable. I really liked Coach K's approach at Florida State, screening for your best scorer inside, drawing all the defenders there, and then passing it to somebody else, who hits the game winner from the wing. Very hard to defend. I really wish he had taken a similar approach in the Kansas Elite Eight game. Bygones are bygones, though, as they say.