Wendell Carter's mom - college basketball is one big con

[Duke95]

Some serious truth being spoken here.

https://theundefeated.com/features/duke-wendell-carter-jr-one-and-done-is-right-move/


"If you look at the pros and the cons, college basketball is a big con,” she said.
“From a business perspective, college is 100 percent risk and it’s 100 percent negative to your business objective. It’s not putting you in any better position for achieving your business objective, which is reaching the NBA.”
...
“It hurts, it hurts, because I really like Duke,” she said. “It’s a wonderful place, my son loves it and now it’s over.

[Tripping William]

If they haven't had a lengthy conversation already, Kylia Carter and Michelle Roberts (NBAPA executive director) would both benefit greatly from doing so, IMO.

[GeneBanksManCrush]

I'm going to go ahead and assume that's just the blue lipstick talking.

[proelitedota]

I'm going to go ahead and assume that's just the blue lipstick talking.

Probably quoting echoing some of K's sentiment.

[MrPoon]

Thanks for sharing. It’s an interesting read and I enjoyed it.
I raised my eyebrow a few times during the article. I don’t know the author but his bio at the end of the article gives me a hint as to why his comments seem more extreme than what Mrs. Carter was saying.

“William C. Rhoden, the former award-winning sports columnist for The New York Times and author of “Forty Million Dollar Slaves,” is a writer-at-large for The Undefeated.”

What is missing from the article is that many within the “system”, including K would agree that Bagley and Carter should have been in the NBA this year. The resentment against the NCAA has a lot of basis, but this article misses the broader point that it is the NBA and Union who are behind this structure, the NCAA is capitalizing on the rules the NBA establishes.

I super briefly spoke to Mom Carter before the Indiana game, great lady. I am glad she is raising a fuss it is a system that has very little protections for the youngest people intrusted into the system. I’m also glad she fell in love with Duke and went all in, seeing her at games beaming with pride was as cool as Oak’s dad four years
ago.

[Bluedevil114]

Some serious truth being spoken here.

https://theundefeated.com/features/duke-wendell-carter-jr-one-and-done-is-right-move/

Well I guess Carter is not coming back for a second season. Thanks for ruining that mom.

[KandG]

Thanks for sharing. It’s an interesting read and I enjoyed it.
I raised my eyebrow a few times during the article. I don’t know the author but his bio at the end of the article gives me a hint as to why his comments seem more extreme than what Mrs. Carter was saying.

“William C. Rhoden, the former award-winning sports columnist for The New York Times and author of “Forty Million Dollar Slaves,” is a writer-at-large for The Undefeated.”



Rhoden has long been of the most thoughtful journalists and columnists over the last 30 years writing about sports and race. I thought the piece for the Undefeated on Carter and his mother was excellent. JJ Redick had Rhoden on his podcast last year because JJ has been a longtime fan of his writing, and I would recommend the pod:

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/vertical-pod-with-jj-redick--william-c--rhoden-163256078.html

[BigWayne]

Well I guess Carter is not coming back for a second season. Thanks for ruining that mom.

Really? What would your advice to her be and why?

[Chicago 1995]

Well I guess Carter is not coming back for a second season. Thanks for ruining that mom.

He’s projected between 5 and 10 in the draft. There’s no reason to think he was coming back, nor should he. I get that plenty don’t like that this is the world we live in, but it is, and it’s the world we’ve been in for a long time. No reason to live in denial.

[azzefkram]

Really? What would your advice to her be and why?


He’s projected between 5 and 10 in the draft. There’s no reason to think he was coming back, nor should he. I get that plenty don’t like that this is the world we live in, but it is, and it’s the world we’ve been in for a long time. No reason to live in denial.

Methinks there may have been some sarcasm in there somewhere. (or at least I hope there was)

[UrinalCake]

Ok here's a question... if the OAD rule had not existed and players could go straight from high school, do you think Carter would have gone? And where do you think he would have been drafted?

I ask because I remember pre-2004 when there was no OAD rule and it was really only one or two guys each year that make the jump. That was a while ago and maybe things would be different now since high schoolers get to play more AAU and are probably more developed than they were then, but still... if we assume the top 3 or 4 guys would go each year then would Carter have been among them? He was ranked #7 in the RSCI and in terms of bigs he had Ayton, Bagley, Porter, and Bamba ahead of him.

As far as draft position, he would be competing against those same top players in his class plus older guys like Frank Ntilikina from France (drafted #8), Luke Kennard (#12), Donovan Mitchell (#13) and Justin Jackson (#15). Then there would be the guys who graduated from high school in 2016 who chose to go to college for a year and then were surprises, maybe Jonathan Isaac (#6) and Zach Collins (#10). Most of the remaining freshmen would have likely gone straight to the league in 2016 (though not all). I think a reasonable assumption is that Carter would have been a lottery pick, and maybe top 10. But I don't see him going top 5. So there's a chance he would have gone to college anyways, especially for a guy who values education to the extent that his mom pushed him to go to Harvard.

Fast forward to reality, Carter went to school for a season and is now projected in the top 10. Many mocks have him 6 or 7. The difference between being drafted 12 and being drafted 6 is not insignificant. He got a year of education at a top-notch university, and the value of his education plus room and board, stipend, meals, training equipment, etc. is probably in the $100k range as a highly conservative estimate. Never mind being coached by a guy who is arguably better than the majority of NBA coaches. So I guess I kind of take issue with Carter's mom's statement that going to college is "all con." There are pros and cons for sure, but to say that there are zero pros and only cons is a bit disingenuous. I understand her frustration that her son wasn't even given a CHOICE, that he was basically forced to go. And I credit her with making the best of the situation, for supporting her son and cheering him on even when she wished he could have been a pro already and if he was going to go to school she wanted him to go elsewhere. But as an outsider, I don't think going to college is as one-sided as she makes it out to be.

[Ian]

Ok here's a question... if the OAD rule had not existed and players could go straight from high school, do you think Carter would have gone? And where do you think he would have been drafted?

I ask because I remember pre-2004 when there was no OAD rule and it was really only one or two guys each year that make the jump. That was a while ago and maybe things would be different now since high schoolers get to play more AAU and are probably more developed than they were then, but still... if we assume the top 3 or 4 guys would go each year then would Carter have been among them? He was ranked #7 in the RSCI and in terms of bigs he had Ayton, Bagley, Porter, and Bamba ahead of him.

As far as draft position, he would be competing against those same top players in his class plus older guys like Frank Ntilikina from France (drafted #8), Luke Kennard (#12), Donovan Mitchell (#13) and Justin Jackson (#15). Then there would be the guys who graduated from high school in 2016 who chose to go to college for a year and then were surprises, maybe Jonathan Isaac (#6) and Zach Collins (#10). Most of the remaining freshmen would have likely gone straight to the league in 2016 (though not all). I think a reasonable assumption is that Carter would have been a lottery pick, and maybe top 10. But I don't see him going top 5. So there's a chance he would have gone to college anyways, especially for a guy who values education to the extent that his mom pushed him to go to Harvard.

Fast forward to reality, Carter went to school for a season and is now projected in the top 10. Many mocks have him 6 or 7. The difference between being drafted 12 and being drafted 6 is not insignificant. He got a year of education at a top-notch university, and the value of his education plus room and board, stipend, meals, training equipment, etc. is probably in the $100k range as a highly conservative estimate. Never mind being coached by a guy who is arguably better than the majority of NBA coaches. So I guess I kind of take issue with Carter's mom's statement that going to college is "all con." There are pros and cons for sure, but to say that there are zero pros and only cons is a bit disingenuous. I understand her frustration that her son wasn't even given a CHOICE, that he was basically forced to go. And I credit her with making the best of the situation, for supporting her son and cheering him on even when she wished he could have been a pro already and if he was going to go to school she wanted him to go elsewhere. But as an outsider, I don't think going to college is as one-sided as she makes it out to be.

I think she used "con" in the "negative" sense and not in the "fraud" sense, and for players like Carter it is. He would have been a top 10 pick out of HS and from a business perspective, that of maximizing his earnings as a professional basketball player, going to college can only hurt and can't really help. But it's not the fault of colleges, it's the NBA that's responsible for it.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think she used "con" in the "negative" sense and not in the "fraud" sense, and for players like Carter it is. He would have been a top 10 pick out of HS and from a business perspective, that of maximizing his earnings as a professional basketball player, going to college can only hurt and can't really help. But it's not the fault of colleges, it's the NBA that's responsible for it.

It is an irresponsible headline.

[Bluedevil114]

He’s projected between 5 and 10 in the draft. There’s no reason to think he was coming back, nor should he. I get that plenty don’t like that this is the world we live in, but it is, and it’s the world we’ve been in for a long time. No reason to live in denial.

It was a joke guys. Wow. Sarcasm used to be funny.

[MChambers]

Ok here's a question... if the OAD rule had not existed and players could go straight from high school, do you think Carter would have gone? And where do you think he would have been drafted?

I ask because I remember pre-2004 when there was no OAD rule and it was really only one or two guys each year that make the jump. That was a while ago and maybe things would be different now since high schoolers get to play more AAU and are probably more developed than they were then, but still... if we assume the top 3 or 4 guys would go each year then would Carter have been among them? He was ranked #7 in the RSCI and in terms of bigs he had Ayton, Bagley, Porter, and Bamba ahead of him.

As far as draft position, he would be competing against those same top players in his class plus older guys like Frank Ntilikina from France (drafted #8), Luke Kennard (#12), Donovan Mitchell (#13) and Justin Jackson (#15). Then there would be the guys who graduated from high school in 2016 who chose to go to college for a year and then were surprises, maybe Jonathan Isaac (#6) and Zach Collins (#10). Most of the remaining freshmen would have likely gone straight to the league in 2016 (though not all). I think a reasonable assumption is that Carter would have been a lottery pick, and maybe top 10. But I don't see him going top 5. So there's a chance he would have gone to college anyways, especially for a guy who values education to the extent that his mom pushed him to go to Harvard.

Fast forward to reality, Carter went to school for a season and is now projected in the top 10. Many mocks have him 6 or 7. The difference between being drafted 12 and being drafted 6 is not insignificant. He got a year of education at a top-notch university, and the value of his education plus room and board, stipend, meals, training equipment, etc. is probably in the $100k range as a highly conservative estimate. Never mind being coached by a guy who is arguably better than the majority of NBA coaches. So I guess I kind of take issue with Carter's mom's statement that going to college is "all con." There are pros and cons for sure, but to say that there are zero pros and only cons is a bit disingenuous. I understand her frustration that her son wasn't even given a CHOICE, that he was basically forced to go. And I credit her with making the best of the situation, for supporting her son and cheering him on even when she wished he could have been a pro already and if he was going to go to school she wanted him to go elsewhere. But as an outsider, I don't think going to college is as one-sided as she makes it out to be.

Boy, do I agree with this. I think it's kind of sad that she sees going to college as "all con". I certainly understand her feelings from a business, dollars and cents, point of view, but there's more to life than money. If Wendell and his mother value education, then they should see that there is value to attending college. I hope that in 5 or 10 years Wendell will be glad he attended Duke for a year.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It was a joke guys. Wow. Sarcasm used to be funny.

Sarcasm is a tough read around here. Especially at this point in time.

When I use sarcasm on this board on weeks like this I will actually label it at the end with "sarcasm" so no one is confused.

/this is meant as helpful, not sarcastic

[22JumpShots]

Really? What would your advice to her be and why?

Well my advice to Mrs. Carter would be this ~

You didn't want your son to go to Duke. He did anyways, and you both loved it and found a second home. Now you don't want him to return for a second year...." :rolleyes::rolleyes: ...she would then get the point I am making, and give Wendell her blessing for a second season. The end!

Edit | Why you ask? - Because we all want a championship! :cool:

[sagegrouse]

Sarcasm is a tough read around here. Especially at this point in time.

When I use sarcasm on this board on weeks like this I will actually label it at the end with "sarcasm" so no one is confused.

/this is meant as helpful, not sarcastic

I thought emojis were invented to clarify short messages that might be ambiguous.

[Indoor66]

I thought emojis were invented to clarify short messages that might be ambiguous.

That is why I am writing my new book - The Art of the Emojis.

[Duke95]

I think she used "con" in the "negative" sense and not in the "fraud" sense, and for players like Carter it is. He would have been a top 10 pick out of HS and from a business perspective, that of maximizing his earnings as a professional basketball player, going to college can only hurt and can't really help. But it's not the fault of colleges, it's the NBA that's responsible for it.

The NCAA filed an amicus brief in Clarett v. NFL to maintain eligibility rules for football players turning pro.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marcedelman/2013/11/04/the-ncaa-claims-to-support-college-athletes-turning-pro-early-i-say-hogwash/#45d5e6d07e02
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/PressArchive/2004/Miscellaneous/NCAA%2Bfiles%2Bamicus%2Bbrief%2Bin%2BClarett%2Bvs% 2BNFL%2Bcase.html

[wavedukefan70s]

Boy, do I agree with this. I think it's kind of sad that she sees going to college as "all con". I certainly understand her feelings from a business, dollars and cents, point of view, but there's more to life than money. If Wendell and his mother value education, then they should see that there is value to attending college. I hope that in 5 or 10 years Wendell will be glad he attended Duke for a year.

It's a big risk .that kind of payday could conceivably change generations for the Carter family.but everything has risks.not knocking bagley. but I would have loved to see what Carter could do on his own for a full season.i like his game better.

[Reddevil]

That is why I am writing my new book - The Art of the Emojis.

Are you being facetious?

[El_Diablo]

Are you being facetious?

(ಠ_ಠ)

[MCFinARL]

I thought emojis were invented to clarify short messages that might be ambiguous.

Yes--emojis, parentheticals acknowledging ironic intent, etc. Sarcasm works better orally, where tone of voice and facial expression provide important clues. In writing, sometimes people can't tell. And in online forums, even ones as generally civilized as DBR, sometimes when people can't tell, they go off.

Having delivered myself of that rather pompous explanation, I will turn to what I found most interesting about the article--if I understood it correctly, Wendell's mother wanted him to go to Harvard because the basketball program was lower key and there would be less hype, and less possibility of Wendell getting sucked into that hype--and it is no doubt true that Harvard as an institution and its student body don't valorize (or commodify) even their best athletes the way big-time sports schools do. I thought that was the sign of a thoughtful, very sensible mom--and it made me the more glad that, in the end, she thought Duke was great and not the danger zone she anticipated.

Agree with others that the loose use of the word "con" is misleading here--she was definitely talking about pros and cons, not con games.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yes--emojis, parentheticals acknowledging ironic intent, etc. Sarcasm works better orally, where tone of voice and facial expression provide important clues. In writing, sometimes people can't tell. And in online forums, even ones as generally civilized as DBR, sometimes when people can't tell, they go off.



Also, people are less recognizing of sarcasm when they are prepared to be defensive and sensitive after a season ending loss. Adds to the drama and miscommunication for sure.

As far as the article goes - nothing new here. Yes, college basketball is a less than ideal gambit for lottery pick basketball players. No, they have no choice.

And I have to say it again, the headline is reprehensible. It is the equivalent of me saying to a reporter "I bet you would love me to say that 'Duke won't win ten games next year,' because it would satisfy your click bait article, but I think Duke wins forty." The obvious headline is "source close to Duke program says Duke won't win ten games!" It is technically true that it was said, but the meaning is totally obscured.

(to clarify, I am not close to the program either)

[Spanarkel]

Also, people are less recognizing of sarcasm when they are prepared to be defensive and sensitive after a season ending loss. Adds to the drama and miscommunication for sure.

As far as the article goes - nothing new here. Yes, college basketball is a less than ideal gambit for lottery pick basketball players. No, they have no choice.

And I have to say it again, the headline is reprehensible. It is the equivalent of me saying to a reporter "I bet you would love me to say that 'Duke won't win ten games next year,' because it would satisfy your click bait article, but I think Duke wins forty." The obvious headline is "source close to Duke program says Duke won't win ten games!" It is technically true that it was said, but the meaning is totally obscured.

(to clarify, I am not close to the program either)

While apparently not quite lottery pick material, 7-footer Mitchell Robinson of New Orleans(RSCI no. 6 in the Class of '17)didn't play college basketball this season and looks to be a possible first-round selection in June's NBA Draft(even though scouting reports comment that "he doesn't really know how to play").

He made a choice not to play college basketball, and he could also have played in Europe/China/elsewhere.

[ChillinDuke]

While apparently not quite lottery pick material, 7-footer Mitchell Robinson of New Orleans(RSCI no. 6 in the Class of '17)didn't play college basketball this season and looks to be a possible first-round selection in June's NBA Draft(even though scouting reports comment that "he doesn't really know how to play").

He made a choice not to play college basketball, and he could also have played in Europe/China/elsewhere.

I was thinking of Robinson recently as an interesting comparison. We get to see how his decision plays out in this year's draft. And while not in a 100% vacuum, it should be a reasonable comp in the college v no college argument.

Wendell Carter was RSCI #7. Mitchell Robinson was RSCI #8.

- Chillin

[CDu]

I was thinking of Robinson recently as an interesting comparison. We get to see how his decision plays out in this year's draft. And while not in a 100% vacuum, it should be a reasonable comp in the college v no college argument.

Wendell Carter was RSCI #7. Mitchell Robinson was RSCI #8.

- Chillin

Robinson is likely to go in the late-teens/early-20s. Carter is going to go top-10.

That said, Carter would seem like a much more skilled guy based on the scouting reports and what we've seen. It may well be that Robinson would have only hurt his stock by playing. So it's probably not a great measuring stick, even though they had similar ratings in high school.

[ChillinDuke]

Robinson is likely to go in the late-teens/early-20s. Carter is going to go top-10.

That said, Carter would seem like a much more skilled guy based on the scouting reports and what we've seen. It may well be that Robinson would have only hurt his stock by playing. So it's probably not a great measuring stick, even though they had similar ratings in high school.

I don't think that's totally fair because you're using "what we've seen."

Standing on this date last year, we hadn't seen either (at least from an imminent draftable perspective). And they were essentially rated the same on RSCI at more or less the same position. Were they likely to have that same draft disparity when standing on last year's date? Unclear. And we'll never know in a vacuum, as Robinson in particular had some oddities in the intervening time period. But in term's of measuring sticks Play-In-College v Sit-Out, I'm not sure you'll find a much better (or clearer) comp.

- Chillin

[English]

It's a provacative article, especially in the wake of a loss, and it's clear that Mrs. Carter is a thoughtful woman. In addition to the points already mentioned about the intentional click-bait nature of the headline, the simple fact that many in the college hoops system (including Coach K) overtly disagree with the premise of restricting NBA matriculation, and the fact that the NBA age limit is just that--a rule instituted by and governing over the NBA, and not the NCAA--her conclusions are (or perhaps should be) limited to those in her son's position of certain NBA lottery pick straight out of HS. She says as much, but it's not really conveyed well in the thesis of the article, IMO. She mentions second-tier players, which I take to mean not guaranteed lottery picks...of course, guys like Trae Young and Jaren Jackson Jr. are basically guaranteed lottery picks now after a year of college ball, but those guys are irrelevant to her point, I think.

A couple of other thoughts--and I hold no ill-will or animosity for her position, and would certainly suggest Wendell should go play at the next level, as I would've suggested the Carters remain vigilant of their own interests (in addition to the Duke team's) as he navigated his college decision and post-college year:

- The thought that college basketball is all risk and no reward, even for someone in the likely lottery range, is a bit over-simplified, if not misguided; there may be more risk that flaws would be exposed or an injury occur, but certainly someone could raise his draft stock playing a year in college for a high-visibility team; it's happened reasonably frequently (e.g., Wendell was no. 7 RSCI, which likely puts him in the 10-15 range in the draft out of HS...he's now projected ~5-10 in this draft, that's not nothing)

- The suggestion that the possibility of getting better at basketball during the year in college seems to hold no value to her, or at least so little that it isn't really considered a "pro,"seems strange to me; it's odd that she recognizes that players may improve their actual basketball skills in college, but dismisses that out of hand

- I have difficulty reconciling the argument that the elder Carters desperately wanted their son to attend Harvard because of its prestige academically, but ultimately think that a year in college has ZERO benefit, even as it relates to the business of an individual professional basketball player; was he going to eschew basketball if he went to Harvard? Was basketball going to take a backseat for a year prior to going to the NBA? Why were the Carters recruiting Mo Bamba to Harvard to potentially pair with Wendell before his Duke (and Mo's Texas) commit? The Harvard > Duke for Wendell's long-term future point is a bit of a throwaway in the article, but it's still confusing to me.

Anywho, good for Wendell, it was great to have you, it was a pleasure to have your mother and father around the program, and I'll be rooting for you in the future. I wish Mrs. Carter all the best, as well.

[Spanarkel]

Robinson is likely to go in the late-teens/early-20s. Carter is going to go top-10.

That said, Carter would seem like a much more skilled guy based on the scouting reports and what we've seen. It may well be that Robinson would have only hurt his stock by playing. So it's probably not a great measuring stick, even though they had similar ratings in high school.

Agree that Carter has very good basketball skills, but did he really help himself draft-wise by playing this year? His achilles issue, while not sidelining him, did seem to affect his lift(on the end-of-regulation alley oop to Azubuike, Carter is way below him). What if Robinson shows up after months of training and has off-the-chart measurables and Carter's previous 39 inch vertical(meaured in Duke pre-season workouts)has decreased somewhat?

[DukieInBrasil]

"It hurts, it hurts, because I really like Duke,” she said. “It’s a wonderful place, my son loves it and now it’s over."

Of course, it's their decision for it to be over. No one is forcing them to leave. They want to make money, great, go for it, Wendell's got the talent to make a lot of money and he should. But just drop this pretense that you're (W's mom) hurt that he "has to leave". No he doesn't. Perhaps it would be better if he could have just gone strait to the NBA or some other professional league in the US and by-pass college altogether. That way he would never have gotten to know Duke as an 18/19 y.o. undergrad, and you'd have nothing to complain about.

[kshepinthehouse]

Boy, do I agree with this. I think it's kind of sad that she sees going to college as "all con". I certainly understand her feelings from a business, dollars and cents, point of view, but there's more to life than money. If Wendell and his mother value education, then they should see that there is value to attending college. I hope that in 5 or 10 years Wendell will be glad he attended Duke for a year.

Attending college isn’t as valuable as it used to be.

[Troublemaker]

Agree that Carter has very good basketball skills, but did he really help himself draft-wise by playing this year? His achilles issue, while not sidelining him, did seem to affect his lift(on the end-of-regulation alley oop to Azubuike, Carter is way below him). What if Robinson shows up after months of training and has off-the-chart measurables and Carter's previous 39 inch vertical(meaured in Duke pre-season workouts)has decreased somewhat?

Yes, because if two prospects are regarded as roughly the same level coming out of high school, front offices will feel more comfortable drafting the guy who played excellently against an intermediate level of competition between high school and the NBA while the second guy sat out.

Also, IIRC, you were the one who emailed Wendell's high school and asked for his shooting stats, right? And I believe they were terrible (low 20s from three)? That's the other thing. Getting to work with Duke's staff on shooting (and/or in Duke's offensive system) tends to benefit players who have question marks about their shooting. (Even though in Trevon's case, Duke wasn't able to perform miracles [although I do think he got better, too.]) The fact that Wendell shot 41% from three and 74% from the FT line at Duke and showed nice, fluid shot mechanics definitely benefitted his draft stock.

[Ian]

Yes, because if two prospects are regarded as roughly the same level coming out of high school, front offices will feel more comfortable drafting the guy who played excellently against an intermediate level of competition between high school and the NBA while the second guy sat out.

Also, IIRC, you were the one who emailed Wendell's high school and asked for his shooting stats, right? And I believe they were terrible (low 20s from three)? That's the other thing. Getting to work with Duke's staff on shooting (and/or in Duke's offensive system) tends to benefit players who have question marks about their shooting. (Even though in Trevon's case, Duke wasn't able to perform miracles [although I do think he got better, too.]) The fact that Wendell shot 41% from three and 74% from the FT line at Duke and showed nice, fluid shot mechanics definitely benefitted his draft stock.

Sitting out also makes NBA front office question your character and confidence in your own abilities.

[FerryFor50]

"It hurts, it hurts, because I really like Duke,” she said. “It’s a wonderful place, my son loves it and now it’s over."

Of course, it's their decision for it to be over. No one is forcing them to leave. They want to make money, great, go for it, Wendell's got the talent to make a lot of money and he should. But just drop this pretense that you're (W's mom) hurt that he "has to leave". No he doesn't. Perhaps it would be better if he could have just gone strait to the NBA or some other professional league in the US and by-pass college altogether. That way he would never have gotten to know Duke as an 18/19 y.o. undergrad, and you'd have nothing to complain about.

I disagree. Financially and from a risk/reward perspective, he *has* to leave. He gains virtually nothing by staying another year, except some nice memories and a greater injury risk. Sure, he could decide to stay, but that would be an absurd decision if your plan is to play professionally.

[BigWayne]

It was a joke guys. Wow. Sarcasm used to be funny.

You got me. Too used to seeing people on here this week obsessing over the end of the season, etc.


It is an irresponsible headline.

Yes, it twists her words. "One big con" evokes a clearly different meaning than what she actually said:

“If you look at the pros and the cons, college basketball is a big con.”

Replacing "a" with "one," and taking it out of context, changes the meaning completely.

[English]

You got me. Too used to seeing people on here this week obsessing over the end of the season, etc.



Yes, it twists her words. "One big con" evokes a clearly different meaning than what she actually said:

“If you look at the pros and the cons, college basketball is a big con.”

Replacing "a" with "one," and taking it out of context, changes the meaning completely.

Oh absolutely, and to take it further, if you take Mrs. Carter's argument IN CONTEXT, you get something like "For a player coming out of HS who is essentially assured to be an NBA Draft lottery pick, college basketball offers few pros and almost all cons"...except that headline, or article even, doesn't generate a lot of clicks or interest. Because, well, everyone already knows that.

[rtnorthrup]

First, I enjoyed Ms. Carter's article very much, even if it doesn't tread a lot of new ground. It is a very honest account from the perspective of the family of a high draft prospect.

This draft is going to be an interesting view of the relative positions of these arguments, on both sides. On the one hand, you have players like Anfernee Simons (no college ball), Michael Porter Jr. (very little college ball + injury), and LaMelo Ball (very little college ball +character questions). On the opposite side, you have players such as MBIII (was potentially the #1 pick heading into the season, did his game get picked apart too much?), Trae Young (is he the example of a player who improved his position by playing in college?), Mo Bamba (did he help or hurt himself, or neither?), Miles Bridges (how did his coming back for a 2nd year affect him?).

It seemed like the old wisdom was that the 2nd NBA contract was the big money contract. Has that changed with the new collective bargaining? Is there more importance placed on the order of the first round, in terms of contract dollars? What about marketing? To what extent does shoe deals and other marketing compare to the contract salaries?

[English]

First, I enjoyed Ms. Carter's article very much, even if it doesn't tread a lot of new ground. It is a very honest account from the perspective of the family of a high draft prospect.

This draft is going to be an interesting view of the relative positions of these arguments, on both sides. On the one hand, you have players like Anfernee Simons (no college ball), Michael Porter Jr. (very little college ball + injury), and LaMelo Ball (very little college ball +character questions). On the opposite side, you have players such as MBIII (was potentially the #1 pick heading into the season, did his game get picked apart too much?), Trae Young (is he the example of a player who improved his position by playing in college?), Mo Bamba (did he help or hurt himself, or neither?), Miles Bridges (how did his coming back for a 2nd year affect him?).

It seemed like the old wisdom was that the 2nd NBA contract was the big money contract. Has that changed with the new collective bargaining? Is there more importance placed on the order of the first round, in terms of contract dollars? What about marketing? To what extent does shoe deals and other marketing compare to the contract salaries?

One of these things is not like the others.

ETA: You may have meant LiAngelo Ball, who is actually draft eligible.

[rtnorthrup]

One of these things is not like the others.

ETA: You may have meant LiAngelo Ball, who is actually draft eligible.

Yes, whichever one is guaranteed to not play ball in China next season.

[rasputin]

First, I enjoyed Ms. Carter's article very much, even if it doesn't tread a lot of new ground. It is a very honest account from the perspective of the family of a high draft prospect.

This draft is going to be an interesting view of the relative positions of these arguments, on both sides. On the one hand, you have players like Anfernee Simons (no college ball), Michael Porter Jr. (very little college ball + injury), and LaMelo Ball (very little college ball +character questions). On the opposite side, you have players such as MBIII (was potentially the #1 pick heading into the season, did his game get picked apart too much?), Trae Young (is he the example of a player who improved his position by playing in college?), Mo Bamba (did he help or hurt himself, or neither?), Miles Bridges (how did his coming back for a 2nd year affect him?).

It seemed like the old wisdom was that the 2nd NBA contract was the big money contract. Has that changed with the new collective bargaining? Is there more importance placed on the order of the first round, in terms of contract dollars? What about marketing? To what extent does shoe deals and other marketing compare to the contract salaries?

Well, Young improved his position by playing in games in November and December.

[DukieInBrasil]

I disagree. Financially and from a risk/reward perspective, he *has* to leave. He gains virtually nothing by staying another year, except some nice memories and a greater injury risk. Sure, he could decide to stay, but that would be an absurd decision if your plan is to play professionally.

none of which is in disagreement with what i wrote.

[Ian]

none of which is in disagreement with what i wrote.

The irony of course is that she's lamenting having to pick between 2 great choices. The NBA choice is millions of dollars, and the Duke choice is awesome too, so awesome that even in making the NBA choice she's lamenting it means having to end the Duke experience which she and her family loved.

That's a nice problem every one in the world would like to have, do I choose choice A that is great, or choice B that's even better?

[Duke95]

The NBA choice is millions of dollars, and the Duke choice is awesome too

LOL!

[SupaDave]

Yes, because if two prospects are regarded as roughly the same level coming out of high school, front offices will feel more comfortable drafting the guy who played excellently against an intermediate level of competition between high school and the NBA while the second guy sat out.

Also, IIRC, you were the one who emailed Wendell's high school and asked for his shooting stats, right? And I believe they were terrible (low 20s from three)? That's the other thing. Getting to work with Duke's staff on shooting (and/or in Duke's offensive system) tends to benefit players who have question marks about their shooting. (Even though in Trevon's case, Duke wasn't able to perform miracles [although I do think he got better, too.]) The fact that Wendell shot 41% from three and 74% from the FT line at Duke and showed nice, fluid shot mechanics definitely benefitted his draft stock.

I love your Duke glasses but this is laughable. The NBA has all KINDS of people to work with players - especially on their shots. Not just that - but they get to do it everyday - with no classes to attend. Better strength and conditioning. Better trainer's table. Better equipment. Come on - don't kid yourself. John Wall. LaMarcus Aldridge. Anthony Davis. Lance Thomas. Russell Westbrook. Amare Stoudamire. But just a few names who have improved their shooting in the NBA.

Oh - and you get paid. You don't have to share a room with someone and you can hire help. The rigors can be tough but even Kwame Brown managed to last more than a decade...

[Troublemaker]

I love your Duke glasses but this is laughable. The NBA has all KINDS of people to work with players - especially on their shots. Not just that - but they get to do it everyday - with no classes to attend. Better strength and conditioning. Better trainer's table. Better equipment. Come on - don't kid yourself. John Wall. LaMarcus Aldridge. Anthony Davis. Lance Thomas. Russell Westbrook. Amare Stoudamire. But just a few names who have improved their shooting in the NBA.

Oh - and you get paid. You don't have to share a room with someone and you can hire help. The rigors can be tough but even Kwame Brown managed to last more than a decade...

I know that. Kindly re-read the thread :-)

The context is whether Wendell benefitted from attending Duke vs sitting out like Mitchell Robinson did.

There's no question in my mind that Wendell benefitted, improved as a player, and improved his draft stock while at Duke. If the gap between Wendell and Robinson was small coming out of high school, the gap was increased because of how they spent their time in the past year.

[SupaDave]

I know that. Kindly re-read the thread :-)

The context is whether Wendell benefitted from attending Duke vs sitting out like Mitchell Robinson did.

There's no question in my mind that Wendell benefitted, improved as a player, and improved his draft stock while at Duke. If the gap between Wendell and Robinson was small coming out of high school, the gap was increased because of how they spent their time in the past year.

"“From a business perspective, college is 100 percent risk and it’s 100 percent negative to your business objective. It’s not putting you in any better position for achieving your business objective, which is reaching the NBA.”

Exactly why it's a con - college is great and all but that's for regular working folks who will be sitting in cubicles reminiscing about the old days. Not sure where the Robinson kid comes from but I don't really care - he just got interjected as a comparison. Duke could have put him in a better position - or a worse one. Just ask Bolden... Or Giles for that matter - who got drafted off of his high school potential - and not what he did at Duke (and still aint played a game).

So yeah - he benefitted from playing at Duke - but he could have played anywhere and would still be the same draft ready intelligent kid that he is. See - Emmanual Mudiay. See - Mohammed Bamba. See - Trae Young.

Fact of the matter is that there's no substitute for full time training and there's no college that can provide that. The NBA really doesn't give a damn who you played against - that's why they have their own measurables, combines, and workouts. Cause one man's JJ Redick is the next man's Adam Morrison (or Tyler Hanstravel).

Robinson actually strengthens that logic if he gets drafted - no need to put yourself through the nonsense of acting like you really give a damn about anything else but going pro. Hell - even the Balls are right on this one...

[Troublemaker]

Not sure where the Robinson kid comes from but I don't really care - he just got interjected as a comparison.

Wait, you don't see how comparing Wendell's situation with Robinson's is a natural outgrowth of a discussion about whether going to college is a "con"? One kid went to college, one kid sat out - who benefitted more? More to the point, it's also what I responded to in my post. Your reply to me was irrelevant if you re-read the string.

I mean, it's not a big deal. Were I in your position, I would just say, "Ooops, I misread your post. My bad." We're all human and can make mistakes right?

[SupaDave]

Wait, you don't see how comparing Wendell's situation with Robinson's is a natural outgrowth of a discussion about whether going to college is a "con"? One kid went to college, one kid sat out - who benefitted more? More to the point, it's also what I responded to in my post. Your reply to me was irrelevant if you re-read the string.

I mean, it's not a big deal. Were I in your position, I would just say, "Ooops, I misread your post. My bad." We're all human and can make mistakes right?

Don't need to re-read. You make the assumption that this Robinson kid didn't somehow improve in his one year out. Not just that, but benefits are in the eye of the beholder. One person's benefits is another's exploitation. So look at both sides of that coin and you will find your relevance. Cause your main point is that Wendell benefitted BECAUSE he came to Duke - when in reality he could have gotten better anywhere.

[camion]

Don't need to re-read. You make the assumption that this Robinson kid didn't somehow improve in his one year out. Not just that, but benefits are in the eye of the beholder. One person's benefits is another's exploitation. So look at both sides of that coin and you will find your relevance. Cause your main point is that Wendell benefitted BECAUSE he came to Duke - when in reality he could have gotten better anywhere.

Improving basketball skills is one part. Improving one's market value (NBA draft position, name recognition, attractiveness to advertisers) also matter and college can add greatly to that part. I would argue that Trae Young's time in college, for example, added more to his overall value than had he chosen another route.

[Troublemaker]

Don't need to re-read. You make the assumption that this Robinson kid didn't somehow improve in his one year out. Not just that, but benefits are in the eye of the beholder. One person's benefits is another's exploitation. So look at both sides of that coin and you will find your relevance. Cause your main point is that Wendell benefitted BECAUSE he came to Duke - when in reality he could have gotten better anywhere.

Not all environments are equal and produce the same improvement.

Duke coaching + Duke facilities + Duke competition is a different environment from working out on your own and not playing in games (playing in games is typically how players improve the most), is a different environment from what a low-level club team in Lithuania can offer, etc.

[fraggler]

Improving basketball skills is one part. Improving one's market value (NBA draft position, name recognition, attractiveness to advertisers) also matter and college can add greatly to that part. I would argue that Trae Young's time in college, for example, added more to his overall value than had he chosen another route.

This is the part many are missing/dismissing. Yes, you can get better anywhere as long as you put in the work, but national exposure is much harder to do on your own. All things being equal, executives are more likely to roll the dice on someone who has played on national TV than in some tertiary foreign league or in some hidden gym.

[devildeac]

Not all environments are equal and produce the same improvement.

Duke coaching + Duke facilities + Duke competition is a different environment from working out on your own and not playing in games (playing in games is typically how players improve the most), is a different environment from what a low-level club team in Lithuania can offer, etc.

Incorrect.

Two words:

Trunk meat.

(I'll show myself out.:o:rolleyes:)

[ChillinDuke]

This is the part many are missing/dismissing. Yes, you can get better anywhere as long as you put in the work, but national exposure is much harder to do on your own. All things being equal, executives are more likely to roll the dice on someone who has played on national TV than in some tertiary foreign league or in some hidden gym.

Absolutely. Unquestionable.

To executives, these decisions are about risk mitigation as much as they are about tapping into upside returns.

And through that lens, it's easy to understand why, all things equal, a guy that's carried himself on national television, played in huge public arenas, etc has lower risk than a guy who was buried in Estonia for a year.

I think the Carter-Robinson comparison is very interesting. There will never be an absolutely perfect vacuum-sealed comp for these situations. But Carter-Robinson is pretty close. Standing on this date last year, there were no guarantees that Carter wouldn't show similarly to a freshman Bolden. He didn't have to turn out this good. Many don't turn out this good. Robinson easily could have ended up getting drafted ahead of Carter a year later. He still could. But will he?

- Chillin

[cruxer]

I think we've gotten a little lost on what Mama Carter's original point was. These players dream about the NBA. For the select few who would be drafted early in the first round out of high school, having to go to college is a definite con. Can going to a good college with good coaching improve your game? Sure. But going to the NBA with a guaranteed contract, coaching, and personalized training will improve your game too! And you get paid! NBA careers are finite and the OAD rule essentially makes those guys spend one of those finite years playing for free. Guys like Bagley and Carter, who were sure fire early picks right out of high school, will never get that multi-million dollar payday year back. That's a big con! First round pick salaries are slotted by the NBA and NBAPA (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2017/06/23/2017-nba-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections/#41af0927be15), so even moving up a few spots in the draft is unlikely to compensate for that free year.

Of course that's not true for most players coming out of high school. Most need to play against a higher level of competition before an NBA team would even consider giving them an guaranteed multi-million dollar contract. For those guys, college is certainly a pro. After all, they aren't foregoing salary to learn the game and increase their stock.

[ChillinDuke]

I think we've gotten a little lost on what Mama Carter's original point was. These players dream about the NBA. For the select few who would be drafted early in the first round out of high school, having to go to college is a definite con. Can going to a good college with good coaching improve your game? Sure. But going to the NBA with a guaranteed contract, coaching, and personalized training will improve your game too! And you get paid! NBA careers are finite and the OAD rule essentially makes those guys spend one of those finite years playing for free. Guys like Bagley and Carter, who were sure fire early picks right out of high school, will never get that multi-million dollar payday year back. That's a big con! First round pick salaries are slotted by the NBA and NBAPA (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2017/06/23/2017-nba-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections/#41af0927be15), so even moving up a few spots in the draft is unlikely to compensate for that free year.

Of course that's not true for most players coming out of high school. Most need to play against a higher level of competition before an NBA team would even consider giving them an guaranteed multi-million dollar contract. For those guys, college is certainly a pro. After all, they aren't foregoing salary to learn the game and increase their stock.

Honestly, I think Mama Carter's point was that the cold-blooded, business decision is to get to the NBA. That's the goal, and college derails that path unnecessarily for her son, so she isn't a fan of that aspect since it's an unnecessary step. However, it was a step that the Carter's took, and having kept their eyes and hearts open the entire time, it was impossible to not feel the warm-blooded aspects of how amazing the experience, people, and culture were, and that even though the goal is still the goal and they must move on to the NBA, Mama Carter is terribly sad to see this time come to an end for her son (and her).

That's how I took it.

- Chillin

[cruxer]

Honestly, I think Mama Carter's point was that the cold-blooded, business decision is to get to the NBA. That's the goal, and college derails that path unnecessarily for her son, so she isn't a fan of that aspect since it's an unnecessary step. However, it was a step that the Carter's took, and having kept their eyes and hearts open the entire time, it was impossible to not feel the warm-blooded aspects of how amazing the experience, people, and culture were, and that even though the goal is still the goal and they must move on to the NBA, Mama Carter is terribly sad to see this time come to an end for her son (and her).

That's how I took it.

- Chillin

Yep. I don't disagree. But given the headline, I just wanted to dive deeper into why college was a *con* specifically for Wendell.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think we've gotten a little lost on what Mama Carter's original point was. These players dream about the NBA. For the select few who would be drafted early in the first round out of high school, having to go to college is a definite con. Can going to a good college with good coaching improve your game? Sure. But going to the NBA with a guaranteed contract, coaching, and personalized training will improve your game too! And you get paid! NBA careers are finite and the OAD rule essentially makes those guys spend one of those finite years playing for free. Guys like Bagley and Carter, who were sure fire early picks right out of high school, will never get that multi-million dollar payday year back. That's a big con! First round pick salaries are slotted by the NBA and NBAPA (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2017/06/23/2017-nba-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections/#41af0927be15), so even moving up a few spots in the draft is unlikely to compensate for that free year.

Of course that's not true for most players coming out of high school. Most need to play against a higher level of competition before an NBA team would even consider giving them an guaranteed multi-million dollar contract. For those guys, college is certainly a pro. After all, they aren't foregoing salary to learn the game and increase their stock.

Good post, a good reminder that at the end of the day, for these folks basketball is a business. It is a business for Duke, a business for K, and a business for those kids who will be playing at the next level.

If the NBA does any bargaining on the OAD rule in the near future, you can't argue that players who were forced to spend a year between high school and the NBA didn't miss out on a year of big contracts and endorsements. That's just the financial reality.

[English]

Good post, a good reminder that at the end of the day, for these folks basketball is a business. It is a business for Duke, a business for K, and a business for those kids who will be playing at the next level.

If the NBA does any bargaining on the OAD rule in the near future, you can't argue that players who were forced to spend a year between high school and the NBA didn't miss out on a year of big contracts and endorsements. That's just the financial reality.

That's true, probably*. And the financial reality in the NBA looks radically different today than it did five years ago, or when the OAD rule went into place. Or than it does in the NFL or MLB. A lot of these types of financial realities in professional sports rely on timing and luck, and not always on the quality of the player. Just ask John Wall.

*Of course, those negotiations could include shorter contracts (including rookie contracts) and more player options, they could coincide with higher cap numbers, etc. Who knows, it's all sort of abstract right now.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

That's true, probably*. And the financial reality in the NBA looks radically different today than it did five years ago, or when the OAD rule went into place. Or than it does in the NFL or MLB. A lot of these types of financial realities in professional sports rely on timing and luck, and not always on the quality of the player. Just ask John Wall.

*Of course, those negotiations could include shorter contracts (including rookie contracts) and more player options, they could coincide with higher cap numbers, etc. Who knows, it's all sort of abstract right now.

Well, and it's also the reason for the rule. Organizations were spending picks and money on unproven talent, some of which didn't pan out. Thus, make them play against knowable competition.

[dukelifer]

I think we've gotten a little lost on what Mama Carter's original point was. These players dream about the NBA. For the select few who would be drafted early in the first round out of high school, having to go to college is a definite con. Can going to a good college with good coaching improve your game? Sure. But going to the NBA with a guaranteed contract, coaching, and personalized training will improve your game too! And you get paid! NBA careers are finite and the OAD rule essentially makes those guys spend one of those finite years playing for free. Guys like Bagley and Carter, who were sure fire early picks right out of high school, will never get that multi-million dollar payday year back. That's a big con! First round pick salaries are slotted by the NBA and NBAPA (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2017/06/23/2017-nba-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections/#41af0927be15), so even moving up a few spots in the draft is unlikely to compensate for that free year.

Of course that's not true for most players coming out of high school. Most need to play against a higher level of competition before an NBA team would even consider giving them an guaranteed multi-million dollar contract. For those guys, college is certainly a pro. After all, they aren't foregoing salary to learn the game and increase their stock.

For the time that one and dones are around- I think Duke provides some value to the athletes. It is small enough where students get to be part of a community of non-athletes where they can be challenged intellectually- K teaches discipline and professionalism and the program is always in the spotlight and players learn how to deal with media and pressure. Players can learn to be better leaders if they stick around but the question is it worth the financial hit. Only about 5 or so players a year might jump from high school- a larger fraction may jump after one or two years. Only a subset will have long careers if any. There may be a con from college but there is also a con the other way. Some of the McDonald All Americans we saw yesterday will not be in the NBA and some may have very short careers outside the US. The allure is strong but the NBA is not going to work out for most guys- and even some of the good ones.

[UrinalCake]

I was just thinking about that whole incident with the leaked expense report from the agent and how much that must have ticked off Mama Carter. She didn't do anything wrong, she just sat with a guy that someone had introduced to her and didn't accept any food. Yet for several days Wendell's name was plastered all over ESPN and other sports outlets, screaming that he was crooked and corrupt. All over a $100 meal that she didn't even accept. Meanwhile the NCAA makes billions off of his back. I can't imagine how aggravating that must have been....

[proelitedota]

The most ironic thing that can happen this week is if Carter decided to comeback another year for his love of academics and the university. Its not unprecedented as Mike's Bridges did it last year, and Carter proved that he makes his own decisions in the past.

With that said, I hope he declares and goes lottery.

[richardjackson199]

The most ironic thing that can happen this week is if Carter decided to comeback another year for his love of academics and the university. Its not unprecedented as Mike's Bridges did it last year, and Carter proved that he makes his own decisions in the past.

With that said, I hope he declares and goes lottery.

Not going to happen.

Carter will declare and go in the lottery. (No I don't know what he will do any more than anybody else. But um, we know.) I'm sure Wendell will consider his options carefully and make the best decision for himself.

[Newton_14]

Not going to happen.

Carter will declare and go in the lottery. (No I don't know what he will do any more than anybody else. But um, we know.) I'm sure Wendell will consider his options carefully and make the best decision for himself.
Oh for sure he goes. Without question, and if his goal is to play in the NBA and/or get paid millions to play, as fast as possible, then he should absolutely go. I don't begrudge him for it, just like I don't begrudge Miles Bridges for deciding to play his sophomore season at MSU. Neither decision is "wrong". Each kid and family should do what is best for them be it go after one, two, three, or four years.

[AtlDuke72]

The most ironic thing that can happen this week is if Carter decided to comeback another year for his love of academics and the university. Its not unprecedented as Mike's Bridges did it last year, and Carter proved that he makes his own decisions in the past.

With that said, I hope he declares and goes lottery.

I hope he stays and Duke goes undefeated next year !

[UrinalCake]

If Wendell announced he was coming back to Duke, I’m not sure his mama would let him back in the house!

[proelitedota]

I hope he stays and Duke goes undefeated next year !

Hope he doesn't say that in front of the camera if he returns.