Social Experiment - Expectations

[MarkD83]

So the day after a season ending loss is hard to deal with. There are many threads trying to understand / cope with the loss and also ones already looking forward to next year.

One of the common themes of whether one believes a season (2018) or any other is successful is expectations. So for 2019 I want to try something.

Starting now and going until the end of next year let's put some factual information into several categories.

Before a season starts we judge INDIVIDUAL talent. As any season progresses we see TEAM offensive and TEAM defensive trends. How your team matches up with other teams dictates whether your team wins a game (especially in the NCAA tournament). Good teams will take away strengths and force their opponent to win with their weaknesses.

So let's try to put some factual and some expert opinions for 2019 into several categories:

INDIVIDUAL OFFENSIVE TALENT

INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE TALENT

TEAM OFFENSIVE TALENT

TEAM DEFENSIVE TALENT

TEAM WEAKNESSES

TEAM STRENGTHS


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1) Right now ESPN (and other expert opinions) rank Duke's freshmen as 1,2,3 and 12. This is mostly based on INDIVIDUAL OFFENSIVE TALENT

That is all we know about next year's team so my expectations are low. They are higher than if we had no talent but I have no way to judge any team based characteristics...

So what about information in any of the other categories...

BTW I did this on my own over the past 3-4 years and it has made each year more fun and made end of year losses easier to take since my expectations never got too high.

[weezie]

...So let's try to put some factual and some expert opinions for 2019 into several categories:

INDIVIDUAL OFFENSIVE TALENT
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE TALENT
TEAM OFFENSIVE TALENT
TEAM DEFENSIVE TALENT
TEAM WEAKNESSES
TEAM STRENGTHS

OK, what MarkD83 said! Come on let's go! Follow him!

Will this be on the final exam?

[MarkD83]

Lot's of good info in the 2018 McDonald's All-American Game Thread.......

Jason Evans says he will be going to some events and press conferences. Any insight would be welcome...

[MarkD83]

2) Zion Williamson wins Powerade Dunk Contest and Cam Reddish is co-winner of 3-pt contest - INDIVIDUAL OFFENSIVE TALENT
(No individual defensive evidence yet)

[Spanarkel]

Not sure which category to place this observation in, and I apologize for even bringing it up, but it needs to be at least recognized that Zion has had (as have many players at his age) injury issues with his left knee (April 2017/can't find any mention of surgery being required) and left foot/ankle("bone bruise" that sidelined him from November '17 through mid-January '18). I certainly don't "expect" him to suffer additional injuries and pray that he and the other players don't.

[kAzE]

Well, nobody in the country has more individual offensive talent than we do. We probably have 3 top 5 NBA draft picks. And arguably the MOST talented kid of the 3 is actually ranked 3rd by RSCI. That's a good start.

Defensively, there are questions, but Barrett is almost a lock to be a great individual defender. The kid is known for his intensity, and he clearly has the physical attributes to be a menace on D.

[MarkD83]

Not sure which category to place this observation in, and I apologize for even bringing it up, but it needs to be at least recognized that Zion has had (as have many players at his age) injury issues with his left knee (April 2017/can't find any mention of surgery being required) and left foot/ankle("bone bruise" that sidelined him from November '17 through mid-January '18). I certainly don't "expect" him to suffer additional injuries and pray that he and the other players don't.

I would put this under TEAM WEAKNESS. My reasoning is that this affects team depth. This is the way I looked at Harry two years ago and any injured player. Once they get healthy they add to the depth of the team, so if they are not healthy they hurt team depth. This is also my attempt to not blame the player for being hurt but at least accounting that it is detrimental.