Next year's team - who is on it?

[gofurman]

Current team -
1 Trevon Duval G 6-3 186 Fr. New Castle, Del. (IMG Academy [Fla.]) ASSUME GONE
2 Gary Trent, Jr. G 6-6 209 Fr. Columbus, Ohio (Prolific Prep [Calif.]) ASSUME GONE
---

Returning ?
20 Marques Bolden C 6-11 246 So. DeSoto, Texas (DeSoto) ? HOPE HE RETURNS - Great player
30 Antonio Vrankovic C 7-0 269 Jr. Zagreb, Croatia (Pine Crest School [Fla.])
12 Javin DeLaurier F 6-10 231 So. Shipman, Va. (Saint Anne's-Belfield) SHOULD PLAY SOME
41 Jack White F 6-7 226 So. Traralgon, Victoria, Australia (Australian Institute of Sport)
15 Alex O'Connell G 6-6 171 Fr. Roswell, Ga. (Milton) SHOULD PLAY SOME - Good player

NAME POS STATUS GRADE
Cam Reddish SF (3) Signed 96
R.J. Barrett SF (3) Signed 96
Zion Williamson PF (4) Committed 96
Tre Jones PG (1) Signed 93

So Jones is the PG??

Who are the shooters? O'Connell? Can Reddish shoot really well? Barrett? Is Jones a PG that can shoot too?



backups - not much time here:
14 Jordan Goldwire G 6-2 172 Fr. Norcross, Ga. (Norcross)
50 Justin Robinson F 6-9 198 So. San Antonio, Texas (San Antonio Christian Academy)
51 Mike Buckmire G 6-2 172 Fr. Blue Bell, Pa. (Germantown Friends School)
53 Brennan Besser G 6-5 190 Jr. Chicago, Ill. (Latin School)

[CDu]

If I were forced to guess, I'd say:

Bagley, Carter, Duval, and Trent all go pro along with Allen's graduation. So that leaves:

C: Bolden
PF: Williamson
SF: Reddish
SG: Barrett
PG: Jones
Backup big: DeLaurier
Backup guard: O'Connell
Other spot-minutes guys: White, Goldwire, Vrankovic
Walk-ons/non-recruited players: Robinson, Buckmire, Besser

Reddish is a bit of a Grant Hill type of player: incredibly versatile, capable of scoring at all 3 levels, not bad with the ball in his hands either. Not really a PG, but capable of filling in the ballhandling duties whenever Jones sits.

Barrett is a scorer at all 3 levels. A powerful wing player who can create his own shot, drive to the basket, and shoot a little from 3. Also a capable ballhandler, but definitely less of a facilitator than Reddish, who is definitely less of a facilitator than PGs are.

Williamson is a freak of nature. A bowling ball of a big, with not awful handle. Reminds me a little of Julius Randle in style, though he's a better leaper and even bigger/stronger. Kind of Charles Barkley-esque as well. Also quite capable of creating his own shot, either in the post or attacking off the dribble.

Jones is a bit of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" type of guy. Solid athlete, but not spectacular run/jump athleticism. Not a great shooter. But just knows how to play. In some ways, he is a little like his older brother. Also a Jalen Brunson type of feel for the game, though not nearly as physically strong as Brunson (nor nearly as good a shooter).

It will be a team of guys who can all create their own shots. So it will feel a LOT like Team USA in that regard, with several interchangeable parts and scoring potential.

We may also have some of the same limitations as this year's team though, as none of the incoming guys are necessarily knock-down shooters (though Reddish has that kind of potential), and we'll again only really have one PG. So in that sense, it would be awesome if Duval and Trent came back. But I don't see either guy returning.

The good news is that Coach K knows how to work with a team of perimeter-oriented guys, whereas he hasn't had as much practice with two true post guys. Considering that we struggled to really maximize our two dominant post men this year, hopefully next year's team will be more familiar to Coach K.

[kAzE]

Jones is a bit of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" type of guy. Solid athlete, but not spectacular run/jump athleticism. Not a great shooter. But just knows how to play. In some ways, he is a little like his older brother. Also a Jalen Brunson type of feel for the game, though not nearly as physically strong as Brunson (nor nearly as good a shooter).


This may be getting a little bit ahead of things, but what's your feel on Jones' NBA potential? Looking at 2019 NBA mock drafts, he doesn't appear to be a OAD prospect. I don't anticipate him being a 4 year player, but a 2 or 3 year guy, especially at the point guard position would be a breath of fresh air.

[CDu]

This may be getting a little bit ahead of things, but what's your feel on Jones' NBA potential? Looking at 2019 NBA mock drafts, he doesn't appear to be a OAD prospect. I don't anticipate him being a 4 year player, but a 2 or 3 year guy, especially at the point guard position would be a breath of fresh air.

I think he's a lot like his brother (who was also thought of as a multi-year guy). If the team does as well as the 2015 team did, I wouldn't rule him out as going pro (which I'd say of any top-10 recruit). But, in terms of his shooting and athleticism, he seems more like a multi-year guy. Perhaps moreso than even his brother (who was a better shooter than Tre is right now) was.

[Reddevil]

I think Javin gets overlooked a bit. He could be a very important presence next year especially defensively. I think the reason he played near the end instead of Bolden is that he could defend the mid range jumper better. He is quite a bit quicker, so if they have both, they can insert them as needed and of course have more fouls to give. Also Javin can play both center and forward. If he works on his offense over the summer, he could be really solid. I am not talking about being a 20 point guy, but a 12 point guy that can defend and do some of the dirty work. Every good team needs a guy like that. He will also be a junior and possibly a captain. He could be a guy that you feel good about seeing out there because good things happen.

[jv001]

I think Javin gets overlooked a bit. He could be a very important presence next year especially defensively. I think the reason he played near the end instead of Bolden is that he could defend the mid range jumper better. He is quite a bit quicker, so if they have both, they can insert them as needed and of course have more fouls to give. Also Javin can play both center and forward. If he works on his offense over the summer, he could be really solid. I am not talking about being a 20 point guy, but a 12 point guy that can defend and do some of the dirty work. Every good team needs a guy like that. He will also be a junior and possibly a captain. He could be a guy that you feel good about seeing out there because good things happen.

I hope you are correct and Javin scorers around ppg next season, but he's going to have to improve greatly on offense. Javin didn't have a good shooting form on FTs or outside shooting. He did not have good hands when getting the ball down low. He could be a very good defender if he didn't foul so much. I hope he does improve over the summer because we'll need him to be a good player if we don't land Montgomery. GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

If I were forced to guess, I'd say:

Bagley, Carter, Duval, and Trent all go pro along with Allen's graduation. So that leaves:

C: Bolden
PF: Williamson
SF: Reddish
SG: Barrett
PG: Jones
Backup big: DeLaurier
Backup guard: O'Connell
Other spot-minutes guys: White, Goldwire, Vrankovic
Walk-ons/non-recruited players: Robinson, Buckmire, Besser

Reddish is a bit of a Grant Hill type of player: incredibly versatile, capable of scoring at all 3 levels, not bad with the ball in his hands either. Not really a PG, but capable of filling in the ballhandling duties whenever Jones sits.

Barrett is a scorer at all 3 levels. A powerful wing player who can create his own shot, drive to the basket, and shoot a little from 3. Also a capable ballhandler, but definitely less of a facilitator than Reddish, who is definitely less of a facilitator than PGs are.

Williamson is a freak of nature. A bowling ball of a big, with not awful handle. Reminds me a little of Julius Randle in style, though he's a better leaper and even bigger/stronger. Kind of Charles Barkley-esque as well. Also quite capable of creating his own shot, either in the post or attacking off the dribble.

Jones is a bit of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" type of guy. Solid athlete, but not spectacular run/jump athleticism. Not a great shooter. But just knows how to play. In some ways, he is a little like his older brother. Also a Jalen Brunson type of feel for the game, though not nearly as physically strong as Brunson (nor nearly as good a shooter).

It will be a team of guys who can all create their own shots. So it will feel a LOT like Team USA in that regard, with several interchangeable parts and scoring potential.

We may also have some of the same limitations as this year's team though, as none of the incoming guys are necessarily knock-down shooters (though Reddish has that kind of potential), and we'll again only really have one PG. So in that sense, it would be awesome if Duval and Trent came back. But I don't see either guy returning.

The good news is that Coach K knows how to work with a team of perimeter-oriented guys, whereas he hasn't had as much practice with two true post guys. Considering that we struggled to really maximize our two dominant post men this year, hopefully next year's team will be more familiar to Coach K.

Excellent, excellent post. Really sums up next year very well.

Assuming Duval doesn't come back, Reddish is the backup PG. And that's a great role for him, because it allows us to be really, really big (Reddish, Barrett, Zion, DeLaurier, Bolden for crazy size or Reddish, AOC, Barrett, Zion, Bolden/DeLaurier for great size and solid shooting).

To me, the question next year is shooting. We know Barrett is an excellent shooter and likely the best shooter from Day 1. Reddish has apparently improved in this field by he isn't knockdown like Barrett. Jones is an okay shooter, but his brother had a similar reputation coming into college and Tyus drastically improved as the season went on. I'm not sold on Zion as a shooter just yet. And DeLaurier is a disaster when it comes to shooting. I expect him to improve, but not become anywhere near reliable.

[scottdude8]

While trying to cheer myself up after the loss last night, two key thoughts came to mind:

1) Yes, we're probably going to be starting four freshmen again next season. But they're freshmen that fit a bit better in the mold of the types of players K typically coaches (positionless players that can play inside and out) as opposed to this season, where we never quite could figure out the best way to utilize two hyper-talented bigs who needed the ball in their hands (to me, that will always be the lingering sadness of this season, the "what could have been" factor if this team had another year to gel and figure out how to play together). I haven't paid as much attention to recruiting this year as I typically do, but from what I've seen it seems like Reddish, Williamson and Barrett all bear some similarities to Justice Winslow. That's some crazy versatility to have.

2) Barring something unexpected, we'll be returning a handful of guys that, at some point or another during the season, played decent minutes: Bolden, DeLaurier, O'Connell, White, Buckmire, Robinson, and to a lesser extent Vrank. Some on the board have said this previously, but it bears repeating: those seven could've won a couple of ACC games on their own this year. Next year could be a very deep team, with the important caveat that whether or not that comes to fruition is obviously up to K (I'm sure we'll end up with our typical 8 man rotation by the end of the season, but in my ideal situation I'd hope that DeLaurier, O'Connell, and White all get 10-15 minutes and Buckmire gets 5 or so as the backup PG). Compare that to this season, where Grayson was the ONLY player who had seen pivotal minutes consistently during his career, with Bolden and Vrank only showing minor flashes. For all the OAD complaints, K seems to have done a better job this year of finding and developing a few depth and program guys (although that could obviously change if there's an unexpected declaration or transfer, but I doubt it personally).

So while we're definitely looking at another up and down, OAD driven year next season, and although we won't have a senior leader like Grayson, we will have a deeper roster of players who have been in a Duke uniform and can challenge the starters in practice.

Side question (for those who follow recruiting carefully): what is the defensive potential of Reddish, Williamson, and Barrett? I would imagine that their versatility might allow us to go back to primarily man-to-man next season, but they could also potentially have trouble with smaller, quicker players.

[Duke31122]

I really like Javin and the player I think he can become. If he gets stronger and works on offense, he can be a force. K calls him the motor for a reason. To me, he has some Quinn Cook in him. I really think he can become a leader after being around for a couple of years and knowing the system.

I think next years Duke team could have two good bigs, if you look at Bolden and Delaurier. Both have size and contributed some big moments down the stretch. They just need to continue to get stronger and develope offensively. They won’t be a Bagley/Carter, but they will be better than what we’ve had in the past.

I think next years team could be better given the versatility and defensive skills the guys already possess. Bagley was awesome, but he really needed defensive work.

I am looking forward to seeing how fun that team can be. Apparently Barrett and Zion are good friends and talk everyday, kind of like how Tyus and Jackie were.

[Dukehky]

While trying to cheer myself up after the loss last night, two key thoughts came to mind:

1) Yes, we're probably going to be starting four freshmen again next season. But they're freshmen that fit a bit better in the mold of the types of players K typically coaches (positionless players that can play inside and out) as opposed to this season, where we never quite could figure out the best way to utilize two hyper-talented bigs who needed the ball in their hands (to me, that will always be the lingering sadness of this season, the "what could have been" factor if this team had another year to gel and figure out how to play together). I haven't paid as much attention to recruiting this year as I typically do, but from what I've seen it seems like Reddish, Williamson and Barrett all bear some similarities to Justice Winslow. That's some crazy versatility to have.

2) Barring something unexpected, we'll be returning a handful of guys that, at some point or another during the season, played decent minutes: Bolden, DeLaurier, O'Connell, White, Buckmire, Robinson, and to a lesser extent Vrank. Some on the board have said this previously, but it bears repeating: those seven could've won a couple of ACC games on their own this year. Next year could be a very deep team, with the important caveat that whether or not that comes to fruition is obviously up to K (I'm sure we'll end up with our typical 8 man rotation by the end of the season, but in my ideal situation I'd hope that DeLaurier, O'Connell, and White all get 10-15 minutes and Buckmire gets 5 or so as the backup PG). Compare that to this season, where Grayson was the ONLY player who had seen pivotal minutes consistently during his career, with Bolden and Vrank only showing minor flashes. For all the OAD complaints, K seems to have done a better job this year of finding and developing a few depth and program guys (although that could obviously change if there's an unexpected declaration or transfer, but I doubt it personally).

So while we're definitely looking at another up and down, OAD driven year next season, and although we won't have a senior leader like Grayson, we will have a deeper roster of players who have been in a Duke uniform and can challenge the starters in practice.

Side question (for those who follow recruiting carefully): what is the defensive potential of Reddish, Williamson, and Barrett? I would imagine that their versatility might allow us to go back to primarily man-to-man next season, but they could also potentially have trouble with smaller, quicker players.

I'm assuming you mean Goldwire here?

[Dukehky]

I hope you are correct and Javin scorers around ppg next season, but he's going to have to improve greatly on offense. Javin didn't have a good shooting form on FTs or outside shooting. He did not have good hands when getting the ball down low. He could be a very good defender if he didn't foul so much. I hope he does improve over the summer because we'll need him to be a good player if we don't land Montgomery. GoDuke!

Javin is not a very skilled offensive player. I can't really think of a comp. except maybe Hairston, but that's not fair because Javin is so much more athletic, longer, and taller, but offensively, that's kind of his comparison right now. He's gotta get a lot better on both sides of the ball. He fouls all the time and gets lost on D and he isn't just a net-0 on offense, he's a real negative. You don't have to guard him and his decision making with the ball unless it's an open lay-up is almost always a turnover.

Good news is he has a lot of room to improve!

[CDu]

I'm assuming you mean Goldwire here?

He has to have meant that.

I'm also highly skeptical that that group of seven (assuming Goldwire over Buckmire) would have won any ACC games this year. That's basically a bunch of "fifth guy on the floor" type role players, plus a shaky O'Connell and an inconsistent Bolden. At some point, you have to have guys who can be focal points of the offense in order to win games, and none of those guys are that.

But that's neither here nor there, as we aren't likely to ever ask White, Vrank, Robinson, or Goldwire to play major minutes. They are primarily practice players who can fill in for spot minutes here and there when injuries occur. But they're "fifth option on the floor" types.

[Owen Meany]

I have seen 3 point shooting specifically mentioned as Barrett's weakness. I believe, at this point, he is more of a scorer than a shooter (long range at least).

[scottdude8]

I'm assuming you mean Goldwire here?

Yup, that's a bad typo on my end, thanks!

[Reddevil]

I really like Javin and the player I think he can become. If he gets stronger and works on offense, he can be a force. K calls him the motor for a reason. To me, he has some Quinn Cook in him. I really think he can become a leader after being around for a couple of years and knowing the system.

I think next years Duke team could have two good bigs, if you look at Bolden and Delaurier. Both have size and contributed some big moments down the stretch. They just need to continue to get stronger and develope offensively. They won’t be a Bagley/Carter, but they will be better than what we’ve had in the past.

I think next years team could be better given the versatility and defensive skills the guys already possess. Bagley was awesome, but he really needed defensive work.

I am looking forward to seeing how fun that team can be. Apparently Barrett and Zion are good friends and talk everyday, kind of like how Tyus and Jackie were.

This is what I was trying to say and offensively if DeLaurier and Bolden just feast on put backs, and provide kick outs, that would be fine. One can get a dozen points a game just by doing that. (Of course it would help greatly to knock down the free throws that come with that territory)

[CDu]

I have seen 3 point shooting specifically mentioned as Barrett's weakness. I believe, at this point, he is more of a scorer than a shooter (long range at least).

Yep. Barrett has gotten a lot better as a shooter this year. But shooting is definitely the thing he does worst as a scorer. He can certainly make big shots from deep, but he's far from a shooter.

I kind of feel like Reddish is the better shooter of the two, though he is also not a true shooter.

Basically, none of the guys coming in are pure shooters. They are all better scorers than shooters. So shooting is definitely a potential concern if Trent goes (as expected). Really, O'Connell becomes the only true shooter on the team.

Now, hopefully some of those new guys continue to improve as shooters. But that's a definite concern for next year.

[kAzE]

Excellent, excellent post. Really sums up next year very well.

Assuming Duval doesn't come back, Reddish is the backup PG. And that's a great role for him, because it allows us to be really, really big (Reddish, Barrett, Zion, DeLaurier, Bolden for crazy size or Reddish, AOC, Barrett, Zion, Bolden/DeLaurier for great size and solid shooting).

To me, the question next year is shooting. We know Barrett is an excellent shooter and likely the best shooter from Day 1. Reddish has apparently improved in this field by he isn't knockdown like Barrett. Jones is an okay shooter, but his brother had a similar reputation coming into college and Tyus drastically improved as the season went on. I'm not sold on Zion as a shooter just yet. And DeLaurier is a disaster when it comes to shooting. I expect him to improve, but not become anywhere near reliable.

For some reason, I have those 2 flipped from your description. I see Barrett as just an okay shooter. He shoots around 60-70% from the foul line and low to mid 30s from the arc. Reddish to me projects as the better shooter both from distance and from the foul line.

To me, Barrett has a herky-jerky skill set and is much more of a "overpower you and get to the rim" type of scorer, while Cam's game is much smoother and has more finesse, with a pull up game and is a much more natural ball handler/passer.

[scottdude8]

He has to have meant that.

I'm also highly skeptical that that group of seven (assuming Goldwire over Buckmire) would have won any ACC games this year. That's basically a bunch of "fifth guy on the floor" type role players, plus a shaky O'Connell and an inconsistent Bolden. At some point, you have to have guys who can be focal points of the offense in order to win games, and none of those guys are that.

But that's neither here nor there, as we aren't likely to ever ask White, Vrank, Robinson, or Goldwire to play major minutes. They are primarily practice players who can fill in for spot minutes here and there when injuries occur. But they're "fifth option on the floor" types.

To be clear, the ACC games I was referring to would basically be home games against the Pitts of the league. I think that team could beat Pitt at home. That isn't saying very much, but it's a lot more than we could say of our returnees from last season.

With that clarification out of the way, I wholeheartedly agree with you that none of those guys are going to play major minutes. However, there is something to be said about having those type of guys on your team and seeing how they develop after being in the program for multiple years. I think many on this board probably said similar things about Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston back in the day... and while they were never stars, they ended up being important contributors on teams that would have been much less successful in their absence. Heck, think about an example from my Wolverines, Muhammad Ali Abdur Rahkman: he was a no-name recruit that Beilein found at the last minute that NOBODY expected to be more than a practice player (much like you were referring to), yet after developing in the program for four years he's one of the most important players in the Final Four as a senior.

All of that is a long-winded way of saying this: going into this season, I (and others) thought that the X-factor for this team would be if one of the returnees or less-heralded freshman (way back when we thought it might be Jordan Tucker!) surprised us and developed into a sixth man that provided major contributions. While Bolden and DeLaurier did their jobs admirably, injuries and limitations prevented them from really developing into that X-factor. However, with the larger pool of returnees with some experience presumably on next year's team, the odds of us finding a guy to provide that impact is much greater.

[CDu]

To be clear, the ACC games I was referring to would basically be home games against the Pitts of the league. I think that team could beat Pitt at home. That isn't saying very much, but it's a lot more than we could say of our returnees from last season.

I don't think that team beats Pitt, even at home. Just not enough offense, even against a bad Pitt team. But, again, that doesn't really matter.


With that clarification out of the way, I wholeheartedly agree with you that none of those guys are going to play major minutes. However, there is something to be said about having those type of guys on your team and seeing how they develop after being in the program for multiple years. I think many on this board probably said similar things about Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston back in the day... and while they were never stars, they ended up being important contributors on teams that would have been much less successful in their absence. Heck, think about an example from my Wolverines, Muhammad Ali Abdur Rahkman: he was a no-name recruit that Beilein found at the last minute that NOBODY expected to be more than a practice player (much like you were referring to), yet after developing in the program for four years he's one of the most important players in the Final Four as a senior.

Abdur-Rahkman was a 20mpg player from day one though, even on a team loaded with good options on the wings (Walton when Albrecht played PG, LeVert, Irvin). None of our backups besides O'Connell showed out like that. I really don't expect any of our returning guys besides O'Connell, Bolden, and DeLaurier to compete for significant minutes next year.

And Thornton and (especially) Hairston were much higher-rated recruits than all but O'Connell, Bolden, and DeLaurier. Heck, Hairston was higher rated than all but Bolden. And like you said, those guys were both "fifth guy on the floor" types. As an aside, they were also primarily on our two least successful teams: 2012 and 2014; Thornton was the 4th guard and Hairston was the 4th big on the 2013 team. Thornton played major (20+) minutes in 2012-14. Hairston never really played major minutes at Duke, but was an 8-12 mpg guy from 2012-14.


All of that is a long-winded way of saying this: going into this season, I (and others) thought that the X-factor for this team would be if one of the returnees or less-heralded freshman (way back when we thought it might be Jordan Tucker!) surprised us and developed into a sixth man that provided major contributions. While Bolden and DeLaurier did their jobs admirably, injuries and limitations prevented them from really developing into that X-factor. However, with the larger pool of returnees with some experience presumably on next year's team, the odds of us finding a guy to provide that impact is much greater.

But that's the thing: we had about as many returnees this year as last year. Last year, it was Allen, Bolden, DeLaurier, White, Vrankovic, and Robinson. This year it is Bolden, DeLaurier, O'Connell, White, Vrankovic, Robinson, and Goldwire. I'm not sure that the added year of experience for everyone plus the addition of Goldwire is enough to offset the loss of a senior Allen.

That's not to say next year is all doom and gloom. I think we'll be very good. I just don't expect significant contributions from anyone outside of Bolden, DeLaurier, and O'Connell.

[jimsumner]

Keep in mind that Duke is still recruiting E.C. Montgomery. Should Duke miss on him, I think a grad-student option will be in play. Perhaps, even if they don't miss on him.

Bolden is not guaranteed to return. If he does, then he, DeLaurier and O'Connell project to the rotation players next season. Any of White, Vrankovic, Goldwire and Robinson would have to make a big jump to get significant PT next season. A big, big jump.

[FerryFor50]

Keep in mind that Duke is still recruiting E.C. Montgomery. Should Duke miss on him, I think a grad-student option will be in play. Perhaps, even if they don't miss on him.

Bolden is not guaranteed to return. If he does, then he, DeLaurier and O'Connell project to the rotation players next season. Any of White, Vrankovic, Goldwire and Robinson would have to make a big jump to get significant PT next season. A big, big jump.

Reid Travis?

[scottdude8]

I don't think that team beats Pitt, even at home. Just not enough offense, even against a bad Pitt team. But, again, that doesn't really matter.



Abdur-Rahkman was a 20mpg player from day one though, even on a team loaded with good options on the wings (Walton when Albrecht played PG, LeVert, Irvin). None of our backups besides O'Connell showed out like that. I really don't expect any of our returning guys besides O'Connell, Bolden, and DeLaurier to compete for significant minutes next year.

And Thornton and (especially) Hairston were much higher-rated recruits than all but O'Connell, Bolden, and DeLaurier. Heck, Hairston was higher rated than all but Bolden. And like you said, those guys were both "fifth guy on the floor" types. As an aside, they were also primarily on our two least successful teams: 2012 and 2014; Thornton was the 4th guard and Hairston was the 4th big on the 2013 team. Thornton played major (20+) minutes in 2012-14. Hairston never really played major minutes at Duke, but was an 8-12 mpg guy from 2012-14.



But that's the thing: we had about as many returnees this year as last year. Last year, it was Allen, Bolden, DeLaurier, White, Vrankovic, and Robinson. This year it is Bolden, DeLaurier, O'Connell, White, Vrankovic, Robinson, and Goldwire. I'm not sure that the added year of experience for everyone plus the addition of Goldwire is enough to offset the loss of a senior Allen.

That's not to say next year is all doom and gloom. I think we'll be very good. I just don't expect significant contributions from anyone outside of Bolden, DeLaurier, and O'Connell.

With regards to Rahkman, he played that much as a freshman solely based on necessity. That was the worst year in the recent Beilein-era run, when injuries to Levert and (to a lesser extent) Spike, combined with the somewhat unexpected early departures of Stauskas, GR3 and McGary, led to us missing even the NIT. And in his first two years Rahkman actually wasn't even the most promising under-recruited wing on our team: the consensus was Aubrey Dawkins was the better player, and he played more important minutes than Rahk did. Even last year there was a portion of the fan base that was frustrated that Rahk started and played as much as he did (there was the occasional chatter about giving Ibi Watson, a freshman then who is our 10th man now, a chance). So, yes, the comparison is a bit forced to our guys, considering he played a lot more from the get-go than any of our returnees. However, every one of the guys I listed was a higher rated recruit than Rahk, and from my perspective you are definitely overplaying how good he was at the beginning of his career. I don't think any Michigan fan would've considered in their wildest dreams that Rahk would be where he is today three years ago (I probably would've been ecstatic if he ended up being a solid sixth man).

All of that is a long tangent (my sincere apologies, but I love talking Michigan basketball, especially right now when it soothes my heartache about Duke, haha), but my point is simply this: you're more likely to find a diamond in the rough if you actually have some rough to look through, and that rough has had some time to develop outside of pure garbage time (apologies for the VERY forced analogy there, haha). Yes, DeLaurier, Bolden, Vrank and White all were returnees this season, but I think they (along with O'Connell and to a lesser extent Robinson or Goldwire) stand a better chance of making a leap after this season as opposed to last season given the experience they gained.

Again, I don't think we're actually disagreeing about anything major here; if anything, the debate seems to just be about whether any of those guys become real contributors or just bench players. I'm not even saying I'm 100% confident that the mythical leap will take place. I just think we're in a better position for that to possibly happen to someone compared to where we were last year, when we entered this season having seen nobody besides Grayson ever play real minutes over an extended period in ACC play. Maybe the comparisons to Rahk, Thornton and Hairston were a bit of a stretch, but I would argue the situation we're in is closer to them than it is to another year of only having 6 or 7 real contributors.

[jimsumner]

Reid Travis?

No idea. I'm not trying to play wink-wink, nudge-nudge here. It's too early to know which prospective grad-student options are interested in Duke and have that interest reciprocated. The season just ended yesterday and Duke cannot and will not initiate contact with anyone.

But I'm pretty sure Duke doesn't want to go into next season with White, Goldwire and Vrankovic in contention for eighth man and Vrankovic the only senior. Duke needs more people who can shave and legally buy beer.

[Natty_B]

No idea. I'm not trying to play wink-wink, nudge-nudge here. It's too early to know which prospective grad-student options are interested in Duke and have that interest reciprocated. The season just ended yesterday and Duke cannot and will not initiate contact with anyone.

But I'm pretty sure Duke doesn't want to go into next season with White, Goldwire and Vrankovic in contention for eighth man and Vrankovic the only senior. Duke needs more people who can shave and legally buy beer.

Yeah next season makes a ton of sense for the first grad transfer. It's impossible to predict who as the number of grad transfers grows every year. It's almost impossible to track potential grad transfers but the person who does track it best, IMO, is Jeff Goodman at ESPN. I imagine the chance to get minutes at Duke, with the recruits coming in, would be very appealing to a lot of big guys looking to play one more season.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

But I'm pretty sure Duke doesn't want to go into next season with White, Goldwire and Vrankovic in contention for eighth man and Vrankovic the only senior. Duke needs more people who can shave and legally buy beer.

After Syracuse K said that "we played young" - and I was too disgusted to listen to last night's post game presser, but I'm thinking they "played young" again last night at times. Ironically, Grayson played young at times. For the life of me, i can't imagine why he waited about 38 minutes to start attacking the basket.

Between clanking our 3s for the second straight game, even good looks, and getting out worked on the boards, and other mistakes, it's clear Duke's A game is 25 points better than Kansas. There are six teams in the ACC who kill us with a performance like last night.

[CDu]

With regards to Rahkman, he played that much as a freshman solely based on necessity. That was the worst year in the recent Beilein-era run, when injuries to Levert and (to a lesser extent) Spike, combined with the somewhat unexpected early departures of Stauskas, GR3 and McGary, led to us missing even the NIT. And in his first two years Rahkman actually wasn't even the most promising under-recruited wing on our team: the consensus was Aubrey Dawkins was the better player, and he played more important minutes than Rahk did. Even last year there was a portion of the fan base that was frustrated that Rahk started and played as much as he did (there was the occasional chatter about giving Ibi Watson, a freshman then who is our 10th man now, a chance). So, yes, the comparison is a bit forced to our guys, considering he played a lot more from the get-go than any of our returnees. However, every one of the guys I listed was a higher rated recruit than Rahk, and from my perspective you are definitely overplaying how good he was at the beginning of his career. I don't think any Michigan fan would've considered in their wildest dreams that Rahk would be where he is today three years ago (I probably would've been ecstatic if he ended up being a solid sixth man).

All of that is a long tangent (my sincere apologies, but I love talking Michigan basketball, especially right now when it soothes my heartache about Duke, haha), but my point is simply this: you're more likely to find a diamond in the rough if you actually have some rough to look through, and that rough has had some time to develop outside of pure garbage time (apologies for the VERY forced analogy there, haha). Yes, DeLaurier, Bolden, Vrank and White all were returnees this season, but I think they (along with O'Connell and to a lesser extent Robinson or Goldwire) stand a better chance of making a leap after this season as opposed to last season given the experience they gained.

Again, I don't think we're actually disagreeing about anything major here; if anything, the debate seems to just be about whether any of those guys become real contributors or just bench players. I'm not even saying I'm 100% confident that the mythical leap will take place. I just think we're in a better position for that to possibly happen to someone compared to where we were last year, when we entered this season having seen nobody besides Grayson ever play real minutes over an extended period in ACC play. Maybe the comparisons to Rahk, Thornton and Hairston were a bit of a stretch, but I would argue the situation we're in is closer to them than it is to another year of only having 6 or 7 real contributors.

I certainly think that Bolden (a junior top-15 recruit) and DeLaurier (a junior top-40 recruit) have a chance to be key players next year. But I thought Bolden had a chance to be a key player THIS year too. Last year, we had Allen, Bolden, and DeLaurier as returnees expected to contribute. This year, we will have Bolden, DeLaurier, and O'Connell as returnees expected to contribute. That seems like at best a lateral step to me.

I'm amazed that anyone would have been disappointed in Rahkman as a sophomore or junior. The guy shot 46% from the field, 37% from 3, and averaged 8.6 points per game as a sophomore in 28 mpg. He averaged 46% from the field, 38% from 3, and 9 ppg in 30 mpg as a junior. He was a really good player the last two years. Really the only thing he's doing now is playing more and passing better. As a scorer, he's been about the same each of the last 3 years (i.e., really good at it). I think you are underestimating how good Rahkman has been throughout his career. It really hasn't been just a senior-year emergence.

I just don't think White, Robinson (who was certainly not rated above Abdur-Rahkman coming out of high school), or Goldwire have much chance to do anything like what Rahkman did. For one thing, Rahkman had already put together multiple good seasons as a starter/sixth man on a power-6 program by this point in the careers of White, Robinson, and Vrankovic. And he had shown a lot more than Goldwire did as a freshman.

[CajunDevil]

Starters:
PG - Tre Jones
SG - RJ
SF - Cam
PF - Zion
C - Bolden

Regular Bench Contributors:
DeLaurier
O'Connell
White

Spot-time Contributors:
Goldwire

Blow-out Contributors:
Vrank
everyone else

Key issues:
1. Leadership - Does Tre and RJ lead from day one? If not, who? Bolden? DeLaurier?
2. Shooting - Can Cam, Tre, RJ, and Alex provide consistency from 3?
3. Defense - K will be working with his favorite type of players - uber-athletic, long wings who can switch 1-4, a center who can move his feet really well, and a quick, strong, athletic pg with off-the-charts intangibles. IF, and a big IF, these freshmen can learn the M2M principles, this team could be devastating defensively, which could lead to many ridiculous transition highlights.

[Dev11]

Javin is not a very skilled offensive player. I can't really think of a comp. except maybe Hairston, but that's not fair because Javin is so much more athletic, longer, and taller, but offensively, that's kind of his comparison right now. He's gotta get a lot better on both sides of the ball. He fouls all the time and gets lost on D and he isn't just a net-0 on offense, he's a real negative. You don't have to guard him and his decision making with the ball unless it's an open lay-up is almost always a turnover.

Good news is he has a lot of room to improve!

Maybe he's like Lance Thomas, but remove some of Lance's versatility and replace it with more hops. Javin DeLaurier is the IPA they brewed from the Lance Thomas barrels.

[Acymetric]

Javin is not a very skilled offensive player. I can't really think of a comp. except maybe Hairston, but that's not fair because Javin is so much more athletic, longer, and taller, but offensively, that's kind of his comparison right now. He's gotta get a lot better on both sides of the ball. He fouls all the time and gets lost on D and he isn't just a net-0 on offense, he's a real negative. You don't have to guard him and his decision making with the ball unless it's an open lay-up is almost always a turnover.

Good news is he has a lot of room to improve!

Seems like a better comparison might be Lance Thomas (pre-senior year)? High energy, a lot of athleticism, but plays out of control frequently (high foul rate) and has no offensive moves to speak of. Without checking, I would suspect that Javin's height/build is more similar to Thomas than to Hairston as well.

That said, I don't feel comfortable at all with the idea of Javin as our primary backup at center (assuming Bolden stays). Just not big enough to bang down low like that. I don't see any of our current commits being the solution either (and even if they could play C adequately, it would not be the best use of their talents on the floor). Montgomery might be able to help absorb some of those minutes if we land him. If not, either we get a grad transfer or expect to see Vrank as the 7th or 8th man off the bench to take 5-10 minutes (maybe more) at center.

If Bolden leaves and we don't take a grad transfer, we should probably just abandon the idea of a traditional center altogether (which is not entirely foreign to Duke, although we usually do have one true big man that gets minutes). Becomes a true run and gun offense at that point with no real post anchor for offense or defense.

[CDu]

Seems like a better comparison might be Lance Thomas (pre-senior year)? High energy, a lot of athleticism, but plays out of control frequently (high foul rate) and has no offensive moves to speak of. Without checking, I would suspect that Javin's height/build is more similar to Thomas than to Hairston as well.

That said, I don't feel comfortable at all with the idea of Javin as our primary backup at center (assuming Bolden stays). Just not big enough to bang down low like that. I don't see any of our current commits being the solution either (and even if they could play C adequately, it would not be the best use of their talents on the floor). Montgomery might be able to help absorb some of those minutes if we land him. If not, either we get a grad transfer or expect to see Vrank as the 7th or 8th man off the bench to take 5-10 minutes (maybe more) at center.

If Bolden leaves and we don't take a grad transfer, we should probably just abandon the idea of a traditional center altogether (which is not entirely foreign to Duke, although we usually do have one true big man that gets minutes). Becomes a true run and gun offense at that point with no real post anchor for offense or defense.

I don’t have a problem with Williamson and DeLaurier sharing the backup C minutes. Williamson is plenty strong enough to defend Cs, and would be a nightmare to defend. DeLaurier could play C when the center is quicker/thinner, or PF otherwise.

[kako]

One way to deal with OADs is to build your team expecting OADs but then have a core of leadership around them so that we don't have a team full of them. I personally don't think starting 5 OADs, even if they were say the top 5 rated recruits, is a good strategy.

I thought the reason K went after Goldwire was to have a 4-year, slowly-increasing-in-capability PG that can offer leadership as a junior and senior. As a 3-star HS prospect, he's shown some moments. His stats don't scream lottery pick, but he did have 24 assists and 7 steals compared to 7 TOs. Still, he was of course completely overshadowed by Duval (and the other frosh guards), but was as it should have been. Having a 4-year PG who understands the offense/defense and can be (at least) a rotation player could greatly benefit Duke, assuming OAD stays in place as-is. It's not like he's a walk-on - there were mid-majors courting him for years... but when Duke took, what, 1 week, and swooped in, he signed immediately. He must have signed knowing that he will be a long-term player, gaining more experience as time goes on.

I'm hoping Goldwire can get more minutes next year. Sure, he's not going to start over Tre Jones. But Jones will probably be OAD, too. And Duke will need a backup PG. People might say that could be AOC. I think AOC is a shooting guard, but he might develop other skills. Even if that's the case, Duke will still need backup at the guard spot. And long term if Duke can keep developing Goldwire, then that leads to upperclassman leadership over the OADs, like Cook, Allen, etc. Maybe the ceiling is not so high for Goldwire. But even if he can become like Tyler Thornton, I think it would be very helpful.

I have noticed Goldwire on the bench, encouraging, celebrating and going up to teammates during timeouts. That's a good sign.

Mid-majors have senior guard leadership. Ben Richardson from Loyola is leading that FF team, and Rivals says he was a 3-star prospect. Same as Goldwire. So I'm just hoping for hard work on his part, keep his head up and strive towards his senior season when he can be an important contributor.

[scottdude8]

I certainly think that Bolden (a junior top-15 recruit) and DeLaurier (a junior top-40 recruit) have a chance to be key players next year. But I thought Bolden had a chance to be a key player THIS year too. Last year, we had Allen, Bolden, and DeLaurier as returnees expected to contribute. This year, we will have Bolden, DeLaurier, and O'Connell as returnees expected to contribute. That seems like at best a lateral step to me.

I'm amazed that anyone would have been disappointed in Rahkman as a sophomore or junior. The guy shot 46% from the field, 37% from 3, and averaged 8.6 points per game as a sophomore in 28 mpg. He averaged 46% from the field, 38% from 3, and 9 ppg in 30 mpg as a junior. He was a really good player the last two years. Really the only thing he's doing now is playing more and passing better. As a scorer, he's been about the same each of the last 3 years (i.e., really good at it). I think you are underestimating how good Rahkman has been throughout his career. It really hasn't been just a senior-year emergence.

I just don't think White, Robinson (who was certainly not rated above Abdur-Rahkman coming out of high school), or Goldwire have much chance to do anything like what Rahkman did. For one thing, Rahkman had already put together multiple good seasons as a starter/sixth man on a power-6 program by this point in the careers of White, Robinson, and Vrankovic. And he had shown a lot more than Goldwire did as a freshman.

Again, all completely fair points. However, I think you may be looking at things through the lens of the success Michigan has had over the last 12 months, and not the types of teams Rahk was actually playing on. Like I said, Rahk's freshman year was one of the worst years in recent Michigan memory, and he played mostly out of injury necessity. His sophomore and junior years Michigan was a bubble team at best (until the amazing run late last season), and again, his scoring was largely dictated by the fact that he was a starter on a team that didn't have any clear stars and didn't have much post production (until Mo's explosion late last year). And while the stats might look nice, until this year Rahk's performances in game never were particularly pretty. It's hard to back this up, obviously, but I would venture to say that a judgement via the "eye-test" comparing sophomore year Rahk to senior year Rahk would be pretty jarring.

None of this is to say I don't like Rahk or think he's a great player. I LOVE Rahk. But the improvements he's made from his freshman year to now (maybe the point we're arguing over is more the "year-to-year" improvement versus overall improvement) were shocking to the fans who watched him every game. As context, after Michigan his best offers out of HS were from Bucknell and VCU. That's an incredible rise over the course of four years.

Given all of that, and some of my previous discussion, the point I was trying to make is this: oftentimes, you need someone unexpected to make a Rahk-like, somewhat unexpected leap to turn a great team into an excellent team (Michigan wouldn't be in the Final Four if we had sophomore year Rahk, of that I'm pretty certain). Unfortunately, that didn't happen this year for Bolden, DeLaurier, White or Vrank. However, with another year under their belts, and the addition of O'Connell to the returnees, I think the probability that SOMEONE makes that type of leap is higher this year than it was last year. Hence, we have a slightly higher chance of finding that X-factor on next year's team.

Side note: I always love my debates with you CDu. They're always rational, grounded in facts and supporting evidence, and enlightening. Even when we don't end up coming to a consensus, it's always a good time. These types of discussions are the reason this is really the only message board I actively participate in. :)

[whereinthehellami]

All four recruits are RSCI top 10 and poised to start next year.

Tre Jones- PG - RSCI #7
Tre (6-2, 183) is a natural born leader and has been training like a pro, being the younger brother of Tyus Jones. I think it says it all that he chose Duke instead of forging his own path at a different school. He approached this decision like a professional and embraced following in his brother’s footsteps.

Tre is a gamer, likes the bright lights. Tre is at his best setting up teammates and has a high basketball IQ. The type of player who finds the ball and delivers it in the right spot. Tre always has his head up in transition and looks for the pass ahead. It should be fun next year in transition!

Despite his slight size (6-2, 183) and somewhat limited athleticism (for a top ten recruit), Tre is an effective driver with the ball using high level hesitation moves, switching tempo to keep defenders on their heels. Tre has a solid mid-range game and can get shots off in the lane with decent step-backs and floaters. Good at drawing fouls.

On defense Tre shows good effort and instincts. Should get a fair amount of steals he has good anticipation in the passing lanes. Not as long as Trevon though, will miss the deflections Trevon’s length causes. Tre is a good rebounder for his size but it is grown mans’ game in the ACC.

Tre is improving his strength and outside shooting but right now they are not ACC level ready. He has been really working on the outside shot but is still looking for greater consistency.

RJ Barret – SF – RSCI #1
RJ is a winner and has been playing high level basketball (Team Canada, Montverde HS) for a while now. Team Canada beat the US last summer in the U19 world cup (scored 38 pts, 13 boards) and Montverde is perennially one of the best HS teams in the country. They are the favorite for the Geico HS championship this year and are undefeated, play March 29. Check out the game highlights against Bol-Bols team from earlier this year to see the level of ball that Barret has been playing against.

RJ is thin but with a good build (6-7, 200). RJ is another gamer who loves the bright lights and wants the ball at the end of the game. Has a lot of confidence in his scoring and passing and is creative with both. Has great body control and uses his length well. On offense he switches pace well and takes long strides, gliding around defenders. Gets to the line a ton due to his craftiness. Explosive in transition and at the rim. Looks to push it at every opportunity. Has on okay mid-range game.

His 3 point shot is more of a set shot and is streaky at best. Needs more consistency. RJ is prone to taking bad shots and will gamble on passes more than he should.

On defense, RJ is willing to use his length and quick feet. Wasn’t afraid to take the other team’s best player. Needs to get stronger to handle ACC level guys in the paint/rebounding.

Zion Williamson – PF – RSCI #2
6-6, 270. 40 inch vertical. Holy cow! Might be the most unique player Duke has ever had. If you have not seen his Highlight tape check it out, absolutely ridiculous. HS competition was terrible and questions as to how well his game will translate to the next level(s) abound. Most of the experts agree that he is a surefire star if he can remain injury free (that size just doesn’t seem physically possible). The key to me is how well he moves horizontally. Amazing hips and wiggle for someone of that size. Can he win battles against ACC level talent in the paint at 6-6 as a freshman? Loves to block shots and go for steals. Fouls will no doubt be a huge concern. Helpfully he learns quickly to manage that part of his game.

Good ball handler in traffic and has some guard type moves with the ball, change of direction. Hesitation. Hard to stop with his determination to get to the hoop. A willing, creative passer. But can force things and be turnover prone.

Outside shot needs a lot of work but can hit the occasional 3. Not consistent or efficient though.

Has a big personality that is contagious, loves to play and isn’t afraid to show it.

Cam Reddish – SG – RSCI #3
Cam is a 6-7 (210) SG with length and NBA level athleticism. A streaky shooter with handles and a willing/creative passer. Can get to the rim and finish with explosive dunks. Loves to get in transition, has played some point guard.

Has potential on defense with his length and quickness but struggled with effort and consistency. One of the reasons he signed with Duke was to be pushed by Coach K, that is a good sign.

Also needs strength, especially against ACC level guys in the paint. Has the height and a good build.

Settles for difficult outside shots too much. Unselfish player who will look to setup other teammates. Silky smooth player, can disappear in tough play though.

General thoughts
Really exciting class though and should be a totally different look than this past year’s team. If these guys can stay relatively injury free and develop together, should be a lot of fun.

It will be interesting to see where Duke goes with the fifth starter. If Bolden is back, he is the man. That lineup on paper is crazy, 6-1, 6-7, 6-7, 6-6, 6-11. That is some serious length and athleticism.
If Bolden is gone, I like Delaurier in the 5th spot as a rebounder and defender with some dunks and garbage points on offense.

On offense, this is a team build for transition and driving/passing to the hoop. A streaky outside shooting team prone to long droughts. The youth will need to grow up quickly in terms of focus on both ends of the floor. TOs could be a concern as this group figures out they have to treasure possessions. I’m hoping Tre Jones really steps as a leader and reigns this in as the proverbial coach on the floor.

On defense this team should be a great man to man team but can they learn it quickly enough and put the effort/communication in that it requires? I’m not sure. I’m hoping coach stays with the zone as it easier to play for the younger players and with the length and athleticism should be enough to keep the Duke defense in the Kenpom top 20.

Overall, I think this team will be more exciting (more transition) than last year’s squad but I’m not sure they will mature as quickly as last year’s team. Allen, Bagley, Carter, and Trent played mature ball pretty quickly. It should be a fun ride though as these are some seriously talented recruits coming thru the door. I love how it is a completely different look from last year.
The top 3 recruits and 4 in the top 10. Absolutely amazing!

[Dukebasketball2020]

I think Duke needs 1 more big next year whether that's Ej Montogomery or a grad Transfer (Reid Travis), also I think duke needs to target a legit shooter 6'5, 6'6 guy who can shoot lights out or respectable 38-42 % 3 point shooter

[Acymetric]

I don’t have a problem with Williamson and DeLaurier sharing the backup C minutes. Williamson is plenty strong enough to defend Cs, and would be a nightmare to defend. DeLaurier could play C when the center is quicker/thinner, or PF otherwise.

Williamson is definitely strong enough to defend, but there are some issues with using your starting PF as the primary backup C when it comes to getting guys rest and having your best lineup on the floor as much as possible (assuming that our best lineup would include Zion at PF and Bolden at C playing together).

[DavidBenAkiva]

Keep in mind that Duke is still recruiting E.C. Montgomery. Should Duke miss on him, I think a grad-student option will be in play. Perhaps, even if they don't miss on him.

Bolden is not guaranteed to return. If he does, then he, DeLaurier and O'Connell project to the rotation players next season. Any of White, Vrankovic, Goldwire and Robinson would have to make a big jump to get significant PT next season. A big, big jump.

*E.J. Montgomery.

Regarding Bolden, I don't see why he would leave for basketball/roster reasons. He clearly earned the trust of the coaching staff this season and, after returning from the MCL sprain in early 2018, played the best basketball of his short career at Duke. With the roster coming in next year, it seems very obvious that he can be a starter on a Top 10 team. The team needs a big center like him, a guy that can play close to the rim while everyone else switches and attacks from the perimeter. I could hardly think of a better type of player for the incoming roster.

Transferring would require that he sit out the entire year. I just don't see why he would forgo another run at it with Duke versus going somewhere else. There has to be some other reason, not related to basketball, for him to transfer.

[Acymetric]

*E.J. Montgomery.

Regarding Bolden, I don't see why he would leave for basketball/roster reasons. He clearly earned the trust of the coaching staff this season and, after returning from the MCL sprain in early 2018, played the best basketball of his short career at Duke. With the roster coming in next year, it seems very obvious that he can be a starter on a Top 10 team. The team needs a big center like him, a guy that can play close to the rim while everyone else switches and attacks from the perimeter. I could hardly think of a better type of player for the incoming roster.

Transferring would require that he sit out the entire year. I just don't see why he would forgo another run at it with Duke versus going somewhere else. There has to be some other reason, not related to basketball, for him to transfer.

I don't think anyone is suggesting Bolden would transfer. He very well could choose to go pro though. He could definitely raise his stock significantly by coming back and having a strong year as the primary center, but he could torpedo his chances of playing pro ball at all if he were to come back and suffer another injury. It is a risk-reward situation, hope he stays but would not blame him if he thinks he can get paid now and takes the money. With his size and some leftover hype coming out of high school (plus some solid though not spectacular play this year) somebody would take a chance on him.

[proelitedota]

Zion Williamson is listed as 6/7 250 in the latest McDAA roster. He has shed some of the injury weight.

RJ Barrett looks to be our 3 rather than Cam as he seems to have a nose for rebounding and physical play. Cam is a SG for sure.

I want Zion to shed 15-20 more pounds and RJ to put on 10-15 pounds.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Regarding Bolden, I don't see why he would leave for basketball/roster reasons. He clearly earned the trust of the coaching staff this season and, after returning from the MCL sprain in early 2018, played the best basketball of his short career at Duke. With the roster coming in next year, it seems very obvious that he can be a starter on a Top 10 team. The team needs a big center like him, a guy that can play close to the rim while everyone else switches and attacks from the perimeter. I could hardly think of a better type of player for the incoming roster.

Transferring would require that he sit out the entire year. I just don't see why he would forgo another run at it with Duke versus going somewhere else. There has to be some other reason, not related to basketball, for him to transfer.

Agreed. He seemed happier to me than he's ever been at Duke - I mean, that's 30 thousand foot view with no inside info at all....but he seemed into it. Almost sure to start and get big minutes next season on high profile team. Can be the next Lance Thomas...seems like a little bit less springy and a little disappointing for a while, then blossom into a good four year player and good pro. Not the worst life path in the world....

[CDu]

I don't think anyone is suggesting Bolden would transfer. He very well could choose to go pro though. He could definitely raise his stock significantly by coming back and having a strong year as the primary center, but he could torpedo his chances of playing pro ball at all if he were to come back and suffer another injury. It is a risk-reward situation, hope he stays but would not blame him if he thinks he can get paid now and takes the money. With his size and some leftover hype coming out of high school (plus some solid though not spectacular play this year) somebody would take a chance on him.

From a draft stock perspective, next year is definitely a better option for him than this year. For one thing, he'd likely be a starter next year as opposed to a 10-12 mpg guy this year. For another, next year's class of bigs is far less impressive than this year's group. No way he'd get drafted this year. But next year, there is just one guy 6'9" or taller in the top-10, and just 4 guys 6'10" or taller in the top-30. It is a guard/wing-heavy class.

Of course, decisions aren't always rational. I'm sure he didn't envision being a 3-4 year college player coming out of high school. If he is unable to come to terms with that, then he could well go pro. Sounds like he had trouble with it last Spring before deciding to return. Maybe (hopefully) he's gotten over that since then.

[David Bunkley]

Williamson is definitely strong enough to defend, but there are some issues with using your starting PF as the primary backup C when it comes to getting guys rest and having your best lineup on the floor as much as possible (assuming that our best lineup would include Zion at PF and Bolden at C playing together).

I agree. I would like to think that after 3+ years in the program, Vrank would be able to provide spot duty as our 4th big man behind Zion, Bolden, and Javin, but so far I haven't seen anything that leads me to believe that.

[KandG]

I don't think anyone is suggesting Bolden would transfer. He very well could choose to go pro though. He could definitely raise his stock significantly by coming back and having a strong year as the primary center, but he could torpedo his chances of playing pro ball at all if he were to come back and suffer another injury. It is a risk-reward situation, hope he stays but would not blame him if he thinks he can get paid now and takes the money. With his size and some leftover hype coming out of high school (plus some solid though not spectacular play this year) somebody would take a chance on him.

I agree on this. While I would love for Bolden to stay, he may feel it's time after dealing with injury and conditioning issues for a lot of his Duke career, even if the pros and cons on his decision don't necessarily scream "go pro". I'm in the minority on this board in actually feeling Bolden is more likely to go pro than stay, though I hope to be proven very wrong.

[jimsumner]

The reason people keep speculating about Bolden going pro, is that he really wants to go pro.

I suspect he will declare for the draft, not sign with an agent, go through the process and make a decision.

Make no mistake, Duke would love to have him back and he likely would start on a team surrounded by 5-star talent. Duke needs his size and his experience. He would quite likely greatly increase his draft stock.

But the NBA-lust is strong in this one.

Vrankovic? Nice guy, good student, contributes in practice.

But . . .

Despite injuries to Bagley, Bolden and DeLaurier, Vrankovic played 28 minutes in ACC competition as a junior, 12 of those in two blow-out wins against a historically bad Pitt team and almost all in games already decided.

I'd love for him to explode as a senior. But I've seen no evidence that this likely. Duke needs better low-post options next season.

IMO.

[CDu]

The reason people keep speculating about Bolden going pro, is that he really wants to go pro.

I suspect he will declare for the draft, not sign with an agent, go through the process and make a decision.

Make no mistake, Duke would love to have him back and he likely would start on a team surrounded by 5-star talent. Duke needs his size and his experience. He would quite likely greatly increase his draft stock.

But the NBA-lust is strong in this one.

Vrankovic? Nice guy, good student, contributes in practice.

But . . .

Despite injuries to Bagley, Bolden and DeLaurier, Vrankovic played 28 minutes in ACC competition as a junior, 12 of those in two blow-out wins against a historically bad Pitt team and almost all in games already decided.

I'd love for him to explode as a senior. But I've seen no evidence that this likely. Duke needs better low-post options next season.

IMO.

Yep, I totally agree. If it was a rational decision, Bolden would be returning to Duke with no questions asked. His chances of getting drafted this year are basically zero. But the decision to go pro isn't always one based on reason. It's probably what he's assumed would happen for most of his life now, and as recently as 2 years ago it seemed the most likely scenario. It's hard to say "no" (or even "not yet") to your dream, even in the face of very long odds.

Definitely hope he returns. He'd have a starting spot waiting for him and an opportunity to be the fulcrum in the post. But I won't be completely shocked if he goes, either.

If Bolden stays, I think we'll have a dynamite frontcourt. If he goes, well, I'd look long and hard at the grad transfer market for a big, AND hope we get Montgomery.

[simplyluvin]

While trying to cheer myself up after the loss last night, two key thoughts came to mind:

1) Yes, we're probably going to be starting four freshmen again next season. But they're freshmen that fit a bit better in the mold of the types of players K typically coaches (positionless players that can play inside and out) as opposed to this season, where we never quite could figure out the best way to utilize two hyper-talented bigs who needed the ball in their hands (to me, that will always be the lingering sadness of this season, the "what could have been" factor if this team had another year to gel and figure out how to play together). I haven't paid as much attention to recruiting this year as I typically do, but from what I've seen it seems like Reddish, Williamson and Barrett all bear some similarities to Justice Winslow. That's some crazy versatility to have.

2) Barring something unexpected, we'll be returning a handful of guys that, at some point or another during the season, played decent minutes: Bolden, DeLaurier, O'Connell, White, Buckmire, Robinson, and to a lesser extent Vrank. Some on the board have said this previously, but it bears repeating: those seven could've won a couple of ACC games on their own this year. Next year could be a very deep team, with the important caveat that whether or not that comes to fruition is obviously up to K (I'm sure we'll end up with our typical 8 man rotation by the end of the season, but in my ideal situation I'd hope that DeLaurier, O'Connell, and White all get 10-15 minutes and Buckmire gets 5 or so as the backup PG). Compare that to this season, where Grayson was the ONLY player who had seen pivotal minutes consistently during his career, with Bolden and Vrank only showing minor flashes. For all the OAD complaints, K seems to have done a better job this year of finding and developing a few depth and program guys (although that could obviously change if there's an unexpected declaration or transfer, but I doubt it personally).

So while we're definitely looking at another up and down, OAD driven year next season, and although we won't have a senior leader like Grayson, we will have a deeper roster of players who have been in a Duke uniform and can challenge the starters in practice.

Side question (for those who follow recruiting carefully): what is the defensive potential of Reddish, Williamson, and Barrett? I would imagine that their versatility might allow us to go back to primarily man-to-man next season, but they could also potentially have trouble with smaller, quicker players.

In answer to the side question, I expect K to go back to being primarily M2M because we have highly agile positionless players (think Justise in 2015) with Marques/Javin anchoring the middle (think Zoobs in 2010). But good to know we can fall back to the 2-3 if poor communication and youth rear their ugly heads again. I'd say Cam and RJ have that lock down potential; I have my doubts with Zion and foresee him being a frustration defensively.

[Acymetric]

Yep, I totally agree. If it was a rational decision, Bolden would be returning to Duke with no questions asked. His chances of getting drafted this year are basically zero. But the decision to go pro isn't always one based on reason. It's probably what he's assumed would happen for most of his life now, and as recently as 2 years ago it seemed the most likely scenario. It's hard to say "no" (or even "not yet") to your dream, even in the face of very long odds.

Definitely hope he returns. He'd have a starting spot waiting for him and an opportunity to be the fulcrum in the post. But I won't be completely shocked if he goes, either.

If Bolden stays, I think we'll have a dynamite frontcourt. If he goes, well, I'd look long and hard at the grad transfer market for a big, AND hope we get Montgomery.
(emphasis mine)

Do you mean in the first round? I would be shocked if he weren't picked up in the second round if he declares (understanding that isn't typically the desired outcome for an early entrant). And as I said before, injury issues are part of the equation, and it would be perfectly rational for someone to take a shot at some money (even if it is a smaller contract) now while healthy if there is a fear of additional injury wiping out any chance of making money down the road.

[CDu]

(emphasis mine)

Do you mean in the first round? I would be shocked if he weren't picked up in the second round if he declares (understanding that isn't typically the desired outcome for an early entrant). And as I said before, injury issues are part of the equation, and it would be perfectly rational for someone to take a shot at some money (even if it is a smaller contract) now while healthy if there is a fear of additional injury wiping out any chance of making money down the road.

I would be very surprised if Bolden got drafted at all this year. It is an awful year to go pro if you are a big. For comparison, guys like Yurtseven, Mo Wagner, Jontay Porter (10 and 7 for Mizzou as a freshman), and Chimezie Metu (15.7 ppg, 7.4 rpg for USC this year) are considered second-round pick possibilities among bigs his year. Isaac Haas (7'2", averaging 15 points, 6 rebounds per game for Purdue) isn't even a likely draft pick. Bolden just doesn't have the resume to get drafted this year.

Had he gone pro last year? Maybe he sneaks into the second round off potential as a freshman stuck behind Jefferson, Tatum, and Giles. But back to back years of inconsistent play in limited minutes would take him off the draft boards this year.

[Acymetric]

I would be very surprised if Bolden got drafted at all this year. It is an awful year to go pro if you are a big. For comparison, guys like Yurtseven, Mo Wagner, Jontay Porter (10 and 7 for Mizzou as a freshman), and Chimezie Metu (15.7 ppg, 7.4 rpg for USC this year) are considered second-round pick possibilities among bigs his year. Isaac Haas (7'2", averaging 15 points, 6 rebounds per game for Purdue) isn't even a likely draft pick. Bolden just doesn't have the resume to get drafted this year.

Had he gone pro last year? Maybe he sneaks into the second round off potential as a freshman stuck behind Jefferson, Tatum, and Giles. But back to back years of inconsistent play in limited minutes would take him off the draft boards this year.

I think you are making the mistake of thinking NBA GMs are more interested in resume than they are in that magical "potential". If he were invited to the combine (not a given, but possible if he declares), Bolden's measurables would probably match or surpass most of the guys you mentioned, and someone would take a chance on him. If he declares, stays healthy, and while staying healthy is able to improve his conditioning between now and draft day I see almost no way he goes completely undrafted. Several of those guys are very good college centers, but don't fit the current NBA prototype for the position (athleticism and strength are king).

Incidentally, this approach to drafting players is why some teams are perpetually awful, but it is what it is.

[CDu]

I think you are making the mistake of thinking NBA GMs are more interested in resume than they are in that magical "potential". If he were invited to the combine (not a given, but possible if he declares), Bolden's measurables would probably match or surpass most of the guys you mentioned, and someone would take a chance on him. If he declares, stays healthy, and while staying healthy is able to improve his conditioning between now and draft day I see almost no way he goes completely undrafted. Several of those guys are very good college centers, but don't fit the current NBA prototype for the position (athleticism and strength are king).

Incidentally, this approach to drafting players is why some teams are perpetually awful, but it is what it is.

I think teams are more likely to give the benefit of the doubt to a freshman than they are to a sophomore. With freshman, they are willing to give the "oh he'll develop." After that first year, though, teams stop giving the benefit of the doubt. For sophomores and above, it's "you gotta show me something". And Bolden's largely been a nonfactor for two seasons in college.

If he'd gone last year, I think he gets drafted in the second round on potential. I don't think he'd get that this year.

And the guys I listed are all as athletic as Bolden. And it isn't like Bolden is all that strong. He's kind of heavy-footed, slow, and not nearly as powerful as you'd think a guy his size should be. And he's been in college for two years, while a guy like Porter has only been in school for one.

Bolden's problem is compounded by the fact that he isn't actually the prototype for what teams are looking for in centers in the NBA. He's not super-athletic, doesn't shoot well, doesn't block a ton of shots. He's a more traditional back-to-the-basket big man, which is getting phased out of the league right now. And he hasn't been a terribly successful back-to-the-basket big man in college.

I think Haas is probably the best comparison for Bolden. Haas is 7'2", 290lb, and probably as athletic as Bolden, and probably more polished at this point. He checks all of the boxes better than Bolden: 4 inches taller (Bolden has longer arms, that at best helps him almost catch up to Haas), MUCH stronger, and has consistently been a better college player. And he's likely not going to get drafted at all.

[ncexnyc]

Daniel Orton. If someone was willing to blow a 1st rounder on this kid from UK, when he was nothing more than a back-up, I see no reason why someone wouldn't gamble on a solid kid from Duke.

[CDu]

Daniel Orton. If someone was willing to blow a 1st rounder on this kid from UK, when he was nothing more than a back-up, I see no reason why someone wouldn't gamble on a solid kid from Duke.

Again, Orton was a freshman. And worth noting that he played more (and better) than Bolden did as a freshman (and on a team that was better than Duke was last year). And he was stuck behind a healthy DeMarcus Cousins, whereas Duke had a lot of injuries in the frontcourt. Also, I don't think Orton is a strong argument moving forward. If anything, he's the cautionary tale that teams have since used to avoid drafting guys who didn't get major playing time in college.

If Bolden had gone pro last year, he might have gotten drafted in the second round. He didn't. And now he has two years of being a sub-15mpg player in college. He's not getting drafted. You could write off one year of limited playing time. But two, when there were minutes to be had in the frontcourt?

[Natty_B]

I would be very surprised if Bolden got drafted at all this year. It is an awful year to go pro if you are a big. For comparison, guys like Yurtseven, Mo Wagner, Jontay Porter (10 and 7 for Mizzou as a freshman), and Chimezie Metu (15.7 ppg, 7.4 rpg for USC this year) are considered second-round pick possibilities among bigs his year. Isaac Haas (7'2", averaging 15 points, 6 rebounds per game for Purdue) isn't even a likely draft pick. Bolden just doesn't have the resume to get drafted this year.

Had he gone pro last year? Maybe he sneaks into the second round off potential as a freshman stuck behind Jefferson, Tatum, and Giles. But back to back years of inconsistent play in limited minutes would take him off the draft boards this year.

I think this is accurate. Word today is that Daniel Gafford of Arkansas is likely going to stay another year and the reason, according to the Twitters, is because the 18 draft class is so loaded with big men and the 19 draft class projects to be lacking in quality big men.

[proelitedota]

The one stat about Tre Jones that stood out to me is his rebounding averages in his junior and senior year where he is averaged 10 and 8 respectively. We know Zion Williamson is a high level rebounder that posted better numbers than Bagley did, and RJ Barret put up big rebounding numbers in FIBA. Cameron Reddish is the only one who did not post good rebounding numbers for his position.

Next year's team can be special on the boards if we emphasize rebounding as a team. If we can play m2m well and learn to box out on the defensive boards, we should be a better rebounding team that this year.

I want to see these kind of rebounding numbers for the team.

Bolden: ~10
Zion Williamson: ~10
RJ Barret: ~5
Cameron Reddish: ~2
Tre Jones: ~5

Delaurier: ~5
Rest of the team: ~2

[dukelifer]

I think Duke needs 1 more big next year whether that's Ej Montogomery or a grad Transfer (Reid Travis), also I think duke needs to target a legit shooter 6'5, 6'6 guy who can shoot lights out or respectable 38-42 % 3 point shooter

I would order one that can also play D ;) Most lights out 6’ 6” shooters are taken or in the NBA.

[dukebballcamper90-91]

Keyshawn Woods could help the perimeter and give some leadership to the young guys. Not sure of the rules but Roy pulled it off. Not sure of his plans but he is done at wake.

[dukelifer]

Again, Orton was a freshman. And worth noting that he played more (and better) than Bolden did as a freshman (and on a team that was better than Duke was last year). And he was stuck behind a healthy DeMarcus Cousins, whereas Duke had a lot of injuries in the frontcourt. Also, I don't think Orton is a strong argument moving forward. If anything, he's the cautionary tale that teams have since used to avoid drafting guys who didn't get major playing time in college.

If Bolden had gone pro last year, he might have gotten drafted in the second round. He didn't. And now he has two years of being a sub-15mpg player in college. He's not getting drafted. You could write off one year of limited playing time. But two, when there were minutes to be had in the frontcourt?

I think he will test the waters but he has a decent shot at the first round with a good season next year. That salary guarantee is a pretty big deal.

[Ian]

The one stat about Tre Jones that stood out to me is his rebounding averages in his junior and senior year where he is averaged 10 and 8 respectively. We know Zion Williamson is a high level rebounder that posted better numbers than Bagley did, and RJ Barret put up big rebounding numbers in FIBA. Cameron Reddish is the only one who did not post good rebounding numbers for his position.

Next year's team can be special on the boards if we emphasize rebounding as a team. If we can play m2m well and learn to box out on the defensive boards, we should be a better rebounding team that this year.

I want to see these kind of rebounding numbers for the team.

Bolden: ~10
Zion Williamson: ~10
RJ Barret: ~5
Cameron Reddish: ~2
Tre Jones: ~5

Delaurier: ~5
Rest of the team: ~2

Why so low on Reddish, he should average 5 rbs easy, and I'm not so sure about 10 for Bolden and Williamson, averaging 10 rebounds is hard, even Carter didn't average 10 a game. If you can get 7-8 from each you have to take it. And Jone probably around 4.

[CDu]

Why so low on Reddish, he should average 5 rbs easy, and I'm not so sure about 10 for Bolden and Williamson, averaging 10 rebounds is hard, even Carter didn't average 10 a game. If you can get 7-8 from each you have to take it. And Jone probably around 4.

Yeah, I'll be shocked if Jones averages 5 rpg. I'll also be quite surprised if Reddish averages just 2. I would flip those two guys, with Williamson in the 5 range and Jones in the 2-3 range. And yeah, I don't think either Williamson or Bolden will average 10 rpg. I would expect Williamson to lead the team, but probably more in the 8-9 range. Bolden has never really been an elite rebounder. I'd guess more in the 6-7 range, especially given that he's yet to top 15 mpg in a season (meaning I'm not sure he gets to 30 mpg next year).