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UrinalCake
03-25-2018, 09:48 PM
Jones, Barrett and Reddish are all highly ranked and highly decorated, but are any of them knock down shooters from deep? From what little I know of them, they seem like athletic slashers. All four of the teams still playing right now have guards that can light it up from deep, and that was our biggest weakness this season which ultimately proved too much to overcome. Crazy to say that about a Duke team, but we just didn’t have enough shooters.

So what does next year look like? We’ll have Alex to spread the floor and just maybe Trent comes back. But I’m already kind of dreading the idea of Zion and Bolden clogging the paint without some shooters to space the floor.

BigZ
03-25-2018, 09:58 PM
I think Alex will get more PT with an outside chance Trent returns

ndkjr70
03-25-2018, 10:00 PM
I really hope Trent doesn’t return. I know he just broke JJ’s freshman record, but it seems like this dude hasn’t shot with any consistency since January. If he has even an “okay-ish” outside shooting day today we’re talking about Villanova and not next year.

UrinalCake
03-25-2018, 10:02 PM
^ really? I compare him a lot to Luke, except that Luke shot 30% from three has a freshman. No reason to think Trent’s numbers wouldn’t improve.

BigZ
03-25-2018, 10:05 PM
I really hope Trent doesn’t return. I know he just broke JJ’s freshman record, but it seems like this dude hasn’t shot with any consistency since January. If he has even an “okay-ish” outside shooting day today we’re talking about Villanova and not next year.

How in the world would Duke be better without Trent ?

DukeWarhead
03-25-2018, 10:09 PM
How in the world would Duke be better without Trent ?

Correct. He would only get better and he had a very good freshman outing. We will also be in dire need of some kind of experience and leadership and Trent could help there.

Duke31122
03-25-2018, 10:12 PM
http://usatodayhss.com/2018/duke-signee-r-j-barrett-zion-williamson-duke-basketball

Found this article. Thought it was a good read. Seems like Barrett really has a fire about him.

I think biggest thing we need is better 3 point shooting and consistent guard play. I wouldn’t mind seeing Trey and Gary come back.

Owen Meany
03-25-2018, 10:23 PM
FWIW, at some point in the past year, I looked at some of the incoming guys stats to see 3 point percentages. From what I remember, they were not particularly good 3 point shooters. Perhaps this has or will change. Its ironic that Duke and Coach K were most definitely ahead of the curve when it came to utilizing the 3 point shot - but are suddenly moving away from the shot right when others are looking to exploit it. Even Dukes defense changed from an intense focus on defending the 3 to a zone (although the zone was much more successful against the 3 than I feared).


This year Duke had 2 really good bigs, and a point guard who struggled from the outside - which necessitated the change in strategy. I was hoping next year's team would be better able to take advantage of the 3 point shot since 3 of the top 4 guys play point or wing. That's not necessarily the case. Hopefully they will work on their shooting and see improvement.

Hopefully I read some bad stats, or maybe the players will benefit from not being the focus of a teams defense.

jipops
03-25-2018, 10:23 PM
I expect us to be next year the reverse of what we were this year. The strength of this season's team was in the front court with only 2 players that could hit from deep and both mired in slumps late in the season with nobody to pick up the slack from the perimeter.

Next season, just going by what I've read, we'll be a team that is basically entirely predicated on getting shots from the perimeter with very little, if anything, going through the post. With long guard/forwards like Reddish, Barrett, and Williamson there may be some mid-range. But we're not going to be looking to dump it inside like this season. So if next season's team is going to experience any kind of success then it will basically have to have 3pt shooting as one of its major strengths.

dukelifer
03-25-2018, 10:23 PM
Jones, Barrett and Reddish are all highly ranked and highly decorated, but are any of them knock down shooters from deep? From what little I know of them, they seem like athletic slashers. All four of the teams still playing right now have guards that can light it up from deep, and that was our biggest weakness this season which ultimately proved too much to overcome. Crazy to say that about a Duke team, but we just didn’t have enough shooters.

So what does next year look like? We’ll have Alex to spread the floor and just maybe Trent comes back. But I’m already kind of dreading the idea of Zion and Bolden clogging the paint without some shooters to space the floor.

I suspect that next year's team will not be as good as this year's team. The loss of Allen is significant. If Trent comes back- he will likely be a leader.

WHOneedsSOX
03-25-2018, 11:36 PM
I suspect that next year's team will not be as good as this year's team. The loss of Allen is significant. If Trent comes back- he will likely be a leader.

While all 4 freshmen next year are exceptional, none will be as good as Bagley. Even Carter was incredibly impactful. Easy 20-10 guy if Bagley wasn't here. Next year's freshmen are very, very different. It'll be fun to see how Coach K uses all that athleticism as a weapon.

Ian
03-25-2018, 11:46 PM
While all 4 freshmen next year are exceptional, none will be as good as Bagley. Even Carter was incredibly impactful. Easy 20-10 guy if Bagley wasn't here. Next year's freshmen are very, very different. It'll be fun to see how Coach K uses all that athleticism as a weapon.

Next year should be the litmus test on this whole OAD thing. The top 3 recruits and 4 of the top 8. It's literally impossible to have a better OAD class than that. If we don't win with that class then we will never win building a team this way again.

duke96
03-25-2018, 11:56 PM
I really hope Trent doesn’t return. I know he just broke JJ’s freshman record, but it seems like this dude hasn’t shot with any consistency since January. If he has even an “okay-ish” outside shooting day today we’re talking about Villanova and not next year.

This might be the single most absurd DBR comment of the year. Congrats!

WHOneedsSOX
03-25-2018, 11:59 PM
Next year should be the litmus test on this whole OAD thing. The top 3 recruits and 4 of the top 8. It's literally impossible to have a better OAD class than that. If we don't win with that class then we will never win building a team this way again.

I'd disagree with that being the best OAD class possible. While they're the top 3 players, they aren't the best fit. Of course it's easy to say now but 2015 was probably the best in terms of fit. Had the stud "true" PG, had the stud big man, had the stud hybrid wing that can do it all, and had the great shooter. It was a lot easier for them though cause they had guys like Cook, Jefferson, Jones, and Plumlee but the 4 of the guys in 2015 all filled a specific role. To me, the 4 guys coming in next year are just all position-less super talents, except for Jones.

OZ
03-26-2018, 12:01 AM
While all 4 freshmen next year are exceptional, none will be as good as Bagley. Even Carter was incredibly impactful. Easy 20-10 guy if Bagley wasn't here. Next year's freshmen are very, very different. It'll be fun to see how Coach K uses all that athleticism as a weapon.

Might be five...

kAzE
03-26-2018, 12:08 AM
I really hope Trent doesn’t return. I know he just broke JJ’s freshman record, but it seems like this dude hasn’t shot with any consistency since January. If he has even an “okay-ish” outside shooting day today we’re talking about Villanova and not next year.

Yeah . . . get outta here with that. Trent would be the perfect compliment to who we have coming in. He'd be the best shooter on the team by a mile.

Next year's team's only weakness is kind of the opposite of this year, in that we actually have too many ball handlers. Cam, RJ, Tre, and even Zion are all natural creators with the ball, and will have to give up a lot of ball handling duties to share it with each other. None of them are knock down shooters. That's where Gary Trent comes in. He's a guy who doesn't need to dribble at all. If he comes back, he's the perfect outlet for those other guys when they get in the paint with the ball and collapse the defense.


While all 4 freshmen next year are exceptional, none will be as good as Bagley. Even Carter was incredibly impactful. Easy 20-10 guy if Bagley wasn't here. Next year's freshmen are very, very different. It'll be fun to see how Coach K uses all that athleticism as a weapon.

I wouldn't assume this. Bagley is a unique talent for sure, but RJ Barrett is possibly a star on both ends. Bagley is incredible, but you still have to feed him inside (not always easy), and he was not a great defender as a freshman. You can put the ball in RJ's hands and he can close out a game, and he's a game changer on the defensive end too. They are different players, but I don't think it's a lock that Bagley is a better college player than RJ. It's still a guard's game. Remember, we're talking about a kid who scored 38 and basically single handedly defeated team USA at the U19 world cup. (http://www.fiba.basketball/world/u19/2017/0807/Canada-USA#|tab=boxscore)

JNort
03-26-2018, 12:14 AM
This might be the single most absurd DBR comment of the year. Congrats!

Might be top 10 all time tbh... Trent had a monster freshmen year and is apparently a great shooter already and still has room to go.

Ian
03-26-2018, 12:14 AM
I'd disagree with that being the best OAD class possible. While they're the top 3 players, they aren't the best fit. Of course it's easy to say now but 2015 was probably the best in terms of fit. Had the stud "true" PG, had the stud big man, had the stud hybrid wing that can do it all, and had the great shooter. It was a lot easier for them though cause they had guys like Cook, Jefferson, Jones, and Plumlee but the 4 of the guys in 2015 all filled a specific role. To me, the 4 guys coming in next year are just all position-less super talents, except for Jones.

That's the problem inherently with trying to build your team with one recruiting class, not all the pieces that fit together are necessarily all in that class and also want to come to your program. Duke hit the jackpot in 2015 like you said because not only was it a very talented class but they also fit together. But that is a fluke that is unlikely to happen again, which is why if (when?) next year's team don't fit together again, the coaching staff needs to have a long look in the mirror about whether the methodology they've chosen to assemble a team is deeply flawed.

proelitedota
03-26-2018, 12:18 AM
While all 4 freshmen next year are exceptional, none will be as good as Bagley. Even Carter was incredibly impactful. Easy 20-10 guy if Bagley wasn't here. Next year's freshmen are very, very different. It'll be fun to see how Coach K uses all that athleticism as a weapon.

Bagley was good but he was a tweener in the college game. He has the skill set for the 5 outside of his 3-pt shooting, and he was too frail for the 5. RJ Barret, Tre Jones and Cam Reddish being are playing their college positions.

Zion Williamson is probably going to be another tweener. If he grows 2-3 inches height-wise and 3-4 inches wingspan-wise, he'll be a perfect 5 at the college level.

Imo the perfect college game line-up.

C: >= 6'8. >=240lb. >=7'0 wingspan. great rebounding skills, interior scoring skills, and shot blocking / altering skills.
PF: >=6'6. >=220lb. >= 6'10 wingspan. decent rebounding. Perimeter shooting skills. Ability to guard 1-5.
SF: >= 6'3. >=200lb. >= 6'8 wingspan. Ability to guard 1-3.
SG: >= 6'0. 2nd PG on the court. Secondary on ball defender.
PG: >= 5'10. Primary PG on the court. Primary on ball defender

My fantasy lineup for college that doesn't have any of the all time greats but would have stomped this year: Wendell Carter, Justice Winslow, Frank Jackson, Seth Curry, Chris Duhon.

People place too much emphasis on height but time and time again results prove that all you need is to play tall.

OZ
03-26-2018, 12:19 AM
That's the problem inherently with trying to build your team with one recruiting class, not all the pieces that fit together are necessarily all in that class and also want to come to your program. Duke hit the jackpot in 2015 like you said because not only was it a very talented class but they also fit together. But that is a fluke that is unlikely to happen again, which is why if (when?) next year's team don't fit together again, the coaching staff needs to have a long look in the mirror about whether the methodology they've chosen to assemble a team is deeply flawed.

... and they had a good experienced support group

WHOneedsSOX
03-26-2018, 12:23 AM
Bagley was good but he was a tweener in the college game. He has the skill set for the 5 outside of his 3-pt shooting, and he was too frail for the 5. RJ Barret, Tre Jones and Cam Reddish being are playing their college positions.

Zion Williamson is probably going to be another tweener. If he grows 2-3 inches height-wise and 3-4 inches wingspan-wise, he'll be a perfect 5 at the college level.

Imo the perfect college game line-up.

C: >= 6'8. >=240lb. >=7'0 wingspan. great rebounding skills, interior scoring skills, and shot blocking / altering skills.
PF: >=6'6. >=220lb. >= 6'10 wingspan. decent rebounding. Perimeter shooting skills. Ability to guard 1-5.
SF: >= 6'3. >=200lb. >= 6'8 wingspan. Ability to guard 1-3.
SG: >= 6'0. 2nd PG on the court. Secondary on ball defender.
PG: >= 5'10. Primary PG on the court. Primary on ball defender

My fantasy lineup for college that doesn't have any of the all time greats but would have stomped this year: Wendell Carter, Justice Winslow, Frank Jackson, Seth Curry, Chris Duhon.

I understand what you guys are saying about Barrett, Reddish, and Zion but Bagley was just an animal offensively. Defensively, I agree, not a very good defender. He would be around the Kansas player shooting a layup today and you'd think Bagley would block it into the 10th row but his timing was just not good. But offensively, he was a monster. Didn't even need the ball to put up 20 and 15. It may look like the 3 guys next year are better because they have the flash offensive moves and whatnot but Bagley 10 feet and in was unstoppable.

JNort
03-26-2018, 12:24 AM
Bagley was good but he was a tweener in the college game. He has the skill set for the 5 outside of his 3-pt shooting, and he was too frail for the 5. RJ Barret, Tre Jones and Cam Reddish being are playing their college positions.

Zion Williamson is probably going to be another tweener. If he grows 2-3 inches height-wise and 3-4 inches wingspan-wise, he'll be a perfect 5 at the college level.

Imo the perfect college game line-up.

C: >= 6'8. >=240lb. >=7'0 wingspan. great rebounding skills, interior scoring skills, and shot blocking / altering skills.
PF: >=6'6. >=220lb. >= 6'10 wingspan. decent rebounding. Perimeter shooting skills. Ability to guard 1-5.
SF: >= 6'3. >=200lb. >= 6'8 wingspan. Ability to guard 1-3.
SG: >= 6'0. 2nd PG on the court. Secondary on ball defender.
PG: >= 5'10. Primary PG on the court. Primary on ball defender

My fantasy lineup for college that doesn't have any of the all time greats but would have stomped this year: Wendell Carter, Justice Winslow, Frank Jackson, Seth Curry, Chris Duhon.

Interesting... Frank at the 3? I like my SGs and SFs to be much bigger. Maybe move Frank to the 2 and add Hood at the 3.

What are we considering all time greats btw? Cause Singler doesn't have his jersey retired but he would be a great college 4. Or Jon as a large, great shooting and patient pg.

JNort
03-26-2018, 12:34 AM
Jones, Barrett and Reddish are all highly ranked and highly decorated, but are any of them knock down shooters from deep? From what little I know of them, they seem like athletic slashers. All four of the teams still playing right now have guards that can light it up from deep, and that was our biggest weakness this season which ultimately proved too much to overcome. Crazy to say that about a Duke team, but we just didn’t have enough shooters.

So what does next year look like? We’ll have Alex to spread the floor and just maybe Trent comes back. But I’m already kind of dreading the idea of Zion and Bolden clogging the paint without some shooters to space the floor.

Jones is a great shooter but the others are described as "streaky" which I don't like. Streaky shooters are imo still good shooters but have the extreme highs and lows frequently enough to balance out for a good to above average % ala Gary Trent this year or Andre Dawkins. These guys however are playing high school level defense and shooting around 30 to 32 percent from deep. That's just not gonna cut it at the college level.

Now here is what I love and can't wait to see. The top 3 guys are all 6'6"-6'7" and 200+ pounds. To me that's great flexibility on offense but most importantly in man defense. It's also great for transition and rebounding. If Trent comes back it only gets better.

KandG
03-26-2018, 12:38 AM
This might be the single most absurd DBR comment of the year. Congrats!

There've been a fair number of comments made tonight I might take some issue with, but people are venting after a difficult loss, and I do get how the disappointment is making some people a little crazy.

However, the dumbest and trolliest DBR comment I've seen all season was made in the MOTM thread by the person who nominated Alex O'Connell, because at least "he wasn't drifting off in the second half thinking, "Ah what the heck; next year I get paid to do this whether I win or lose."

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?41766-MOTM-Duke-vs-Kansas-(Mar-25-2018)&p=1058810#post1058810

proelitedota
03-26-2018, 01:31 AM
Interesting... Frank at the 3? I like my SGs and SFs to be much bigger. Maybe move Frank to the 2 and add Hood at the 3.

Height is extremely overrated. It's all about the speed and wingspan. What you lose in height, you gain in speed and agility.

Troublemaker
03-26-2018, 08:59 AM
Jones, Barrett and Reddish are all highly ranked and highly decorated, but are any of them knock down shooters from deep? From what little I know of them, they seem like athletic slashers. All four of the teams still playing right now have guards that can light it up from deep, and that was our biggest weakness this season which ultimately proved too much to overcome. Crazy to say that about a Duke team, but we just didn’t have enough shooters.

So what does next year look like? We’ll have Alex to spread the floor and just maybe Trent comes back. But I’m already kind of dreading the idea of Zion and Bolden clogging the paint without some shooters to space the floor.

Cam has developed into a knockdown shooter, but I share your concern overall. Tre and Zion aren't good 3-pt shooters yet, but maybe the Duke staff can work some magic there like they did with Justise.


While all 4 freshmen next year are exceptional, none will be as good as Bagley. Even Carter was incredibly impactful. Easy 20-10 guy if Bagley wasn't here. Next year's freshmen are very, very different. It'll be fun to see how Coach K uses all that athleticism as a weapon.

RJ and Cam have a chance to be better than Marvin, imo. They're better fits for the modern game with the slashing and 3-pt shooting. The problem with a postup player is that you need people to get you the ball, and we struggled with that at times.


That's the problem inherently with trying to build your team with one recruiting class, not all the pieces that fit together are necessarily all in that class and also want to come to your program. Duke hit the jackpot in 2015 like you said because not only was it a very talented class but they also fit together. But that is a fluke that is unlikely to happen again, which is why if (when?) next year's team don't fit together again, the coaching staff needs to have a long look in the mirror about whether the methodology they've chosen to assemble a team is deeply flawed.

Oh, stop. We were basically a rimmed out shot from never having to hear about OAD complaints again. (At least from a success standpoint).

Do I need to again dig up your old posts in which you showed impatience with 4-yr players? It seems nothing is ever good enough for you.

In the meantime, stop with the repetitive rants about OAD. We all know where you stand.

ChillinDuke
03-26-2018, 09:13 AM
Cam has developed into a knockdown shooter, but I share your concern overall. Tre and Zion aren't good 3-pt shooters yet, but maybe the Duke staff can work some magic there like they did with Justise.



RJ and Cam have a chance to be better than Marvin, imo. They're better fits for the modern game with the slashing and 3-pt shooting. The problem with a postup player is that you need people to get you the ball, and we struggled with that at times.



Oh, stop. We were basically a rimmed out shot from never having to hear about OAD complaints again. (At least from a success standpoint).

Do I need to again dig up your old posts in which you showed impatience with 4-yr players? It seems nothing is ever good enough for you.

In the meantime, stop with the repetitive rants about OAD. We all know where you stand.

Yes, I agree with TM, my understanding is that Cam has turned into a great 3-point shooter. And that Tre is a good 3-point shooter.

RJ, I have never heard him billed as a 3-point bomber, but is that because he can't? Or because he doesn't have to? Or because he's so darn good at everything else that 3-pointers are his 4th best skill? We'll see.

Zion - unclear his 3-point ability. At this stage, I'm doubtful on that.

Alex will be back, and presumably he will have an improved stroke.

I think, on balance, we will be better from deep next year than we were this year. We'll be more "Duke-like" in that regard and in the appearance of our team, although we'll be a little more "slashy" than we were this year - which is sort of nice since Trevon struggled with that more than I thought he would. Tre, Cam, and Alex should all be able to hit threes regularly - which is better than Allen/Trent this year. RJ would add a 4th. And Zion (or anyone else) would just be gravy.

- Chillin

UrinalCake
03-26-2018, 10:40 AM
I think, on balance, we will be better from deep next year than we were this year. We'll be more "Duke-like" in that regard and in the appearance of our team, although we'll be a little more "slashy" than we were this year - which is sort of nice since Trevon struggled with that more than I thought he would. Tre, Cam, and Alex should all be able to hit threes regularly - which is better than Allen/Trent this year. RJ would add a 4th. And Zion (or anyone else) would just be gravy.


That's kind of how I see us as well. I think about that Villanova team that beat us in I think 2009, they had four guards and a mobile big and could spread you out and take turns driving to the basket and dishing. But being able to hit the three is essential, otherwise the defense just packs it in and clogs the lane like they did to us this year. I also see us being a run and gun type of team where any player can grab the rebound and go.

FerryFor50
03-26-2018, 10:45 AM
Trent was one of my favorite players this season, regardless of his shooting slumps. Why? He had an assassin's mentality most of the season.

I say most of the season because he seemed to wilt a little under the pressure of last night's game; got his shot blocked twice on weak drives and wasn't even looking to shoot on one of the final possessions.

I chalk that up to freshman nerves. Another season of Trent would be *awesome.* But it's also wishful thinking. I'd be (pleasantly) shocked if he or Duval returned.

CDu
03-26-2018, 10:47 AM
Jones is a great shooter but the others are described as "streaky" which I don't like. Streaky shooters are imo still good shooters but have the extreme highs and lows frequently enough to balance out for a good to above average % ala Gary Trent this year or Andre Dawkins. These guys however are playing high school level defense and shooting around 30 to 32 percent from deep. That's just not gonna cut it at the college level.

Jones is not actually considered a great shooter. He's actually a pretty poor 3pt shooter (~30-33%). I think he is the worst shooter of our three true perimeter-oriented recruits.


Now here is what I love and can't wait to see. The top 3 guys are all 6'6"-6'7" and 200+ pounds. To me that's great flexibility on offense but most importantly in man defense. It's also great for transition and rebounding. If Trent comes back it only gets better.

We certainly have a more versatile, switchable group of guys defensively. Williamson isn't really a "switch onto guards" type, but he hopefully is better at it than Bagley and Carter were. And hopefully O'Connell puts on 10-15 pounds and is more capable defensively next year too. Trent returning would of course be great, but I don't expect that.

Duke76
03-26-2018, 10:59 AM
Yeah . . . get outta here with that. Trent would be the perfect compliment to who we have coming in. He'd be the best shooter on the team by a mile.

Next year's team's only weakness is kind of the opposite of this year, in that we actually have too many ball handlers. Cam, RJ, Tre, and even Zion are all natural creators with the ball, and will have to give up a lot of ball handling duties to share it with each other. None of them are knock down shooters. That's where Gary Trent comes in. He's a guy who doesn't need to dribble at all. If he comes back, he's the perfect outlet for those other guys when they get in the paint with the ball and collapse the defense.



I wouldn't assume this. Bagley is a unique talent for sure, but RJ Barrett is possibly a star on both ends. Bagley is incredible, but you still have to feed him inside (not always easy), and he was not a great defender as a freshman. You can put the ball in RJ's hands and he can close out a game, and he's a game changer on the defensive end too. They are different players, but I don't think it's a lock that Bagley is a better college player than RJ. It's still a guard's game. Remember, we're talking about a kid who scored 38 and basically single handedly defeated team USA at the U19 world cup. (http://www.fiba.basketball/world/u19/2017/0807/Canada-USA#|tab=boxscore)

On this post wholeheartedly agree if Trent does come back but if he doesn't I would hope we could bring in maybe a transfer like UNC did this year with Johnson (name?),,,,what a find that was or even like kansas did with newman...... that have experience and outside shooting capabilities.....no substitute for experience when you get into the tournament just none

JNort
03-26-2018, 11:06 AM
Jones is not actually considered a great shooter. He's actually a pretty poor 3pt shooter (~30-33%). I think he is the worst shooter of our three true perimeter-oriented recruits.


Everything I've read so far is the opposite. They state his shooting as one of his strengths, his % is also higher than the others. One of em (can't look up who right now is only shooting ~28%

CDu
03-26-2018, 11:12 AM
Everything I've read so far is the opposite. They state his shooting as one of his strengths, his % is also higher than the others. One of em (can't look up who right now is only shooting ~28%

From ESPN: "He's not a great three-point shooter and only an above average athlete so it remains to be seen just how far his game translates. He's rarely going to blow right by a set defender or play above the rim in traffic. His inconsistencies as a spot-up shooter are only going to become more glaring at the next level when he won't have the ball in his hands quite as much."

From DraftExpress: "Jump-shot is a major work in progress. Release is not particularly smooth or fluid. Tends to fling the ball at the basket"

He is a career 32% 3pt shooter. This year? 26.9% from 3 on by far his most attempts (29 of 108) (courtesy of MNBasketballhub stats).

Acymetric
03-26-2018, 11:59 AM
From ESPN: "He's not a great three-point shooter and only an above average athlete so it remains to be seen just how far his game translates. He's rarely going to blow right by a set defender or play above the rim in traffic. His inconsistencies as a spot-up shooter are only going to become more glaring at the next level when he won't have the ball in his hands quite as much."

From DraftExpress: "Jump-shot is a major work in progress. Release is not particularly smooth or fluid. Tends to fling the ball at the basket"

He is a career 32% 3pt shooter. This year? 26.9% from 3 on by far his most attempts (29 of 108) (courtesy of MNBasketballhub stats).

So he's what, maybe a top 75-100 recruit? The ESPN writeup makes it sound like he would be a candidate to redshirt, not be the #12 player in his class per their own rankings...

(this is aimed at the rankings and analysis, not you or your post)

kshepinthehouse
03-26-2018, 12:01 PM
From ESPN: "He's not a great three-point shooter and only an above average athlete so it remains to be seen just how far his game translates. He's rarely going to blow right by a set defender or play above the rim in traffic. His inconsistencies as a spot-up shooter are only going to become more glaring at the next level when he won't have the ball in his hands quite as much."

From DraftExpress: "Jump-shot is a major work in progress. Release is not particularly smooth or fluid. Tends to fling the ball at the basket"

He is a career 32% 3pt shooter. This year? 26.9% from 3 on by far his most attempts (29 of 108) (courtesy of MNBasketballhub stats).

Maybe all the talent around him will make him a better shooter as someone mentioned earlier. If I played with Chris Paul I would have better looks from the three point line then if I had to do a lot of the work myself. Maybe he will be a better catch and shoot guy.

CDu
03-26-2018, 12:05 PM
So he's what, maybe a top 75-100 recruit? The ESPN writeup makes it sound like he would be a candidate to redshirt, not be the #12 player in his class per their own rankings...

(this is aimed at the rankings and analysis, not you or your post)

I only presented the part related to shooting.

Jones’ value is more in his craftiness, court vision, composure, feel for the game, and passing than his athleticism or shooting.

whereinthehellami
03-26-2018, 12:58 PM
All of the guys are working on their shots and as posted elsewhere, they will be taking better shots at Duke. I was reading somewhere that Reddish has a good shot when he squares up with a sold base and goes straight up. But he tends to float a lot, like Tatum did.

Jones is a gamer, like Barrett, they shoot better when the lights get brighter. Jones hit 6-9 3's (35 pts, 6 rbs, 5 asts) last night as Apple Valley lost in their championship game.

Keep in mind that DeLaurier shot 41% from 3 in HS on 82 attempts. I saw Javin play in person and he was the primary ball handler, shooter. HS to college is a totally different game with a lot of extraneous forces at play. Kids are asked to take up roles for a multitude of different reasons, which can affect their confidence and development.

Acymetric
03-26-2018, 01:15 PM
I only presented the part related to shooting.

Jones’ value is more in his craftiness, court vision, composure, feel for the game, and passing than his athleticism or shooting.

I understood that when I responded, I was mostly referring to the "so it remains to be seen just how far his game translates" line which makes it sound like it is unclear whether he can be an impact player in college, which is a strange assertion to make about a top 15 prospect (although certainly their are top-rated guys that end up not being impact players). More a comment on the "quality" and inconsistencies of scouting reports on high school prospects than an issue with the scouting for Jones specifically.

jv001
03-26-2018, 03:08 PM
All of the guys are working on their shots and as posted elsewhere, they will be taking better shots at Duke. I was reading somewhere that Reddish has a good shot when he squares up with a sold base and goes straight up. But he tends to float a lot, like Tatum did.

Jones is a gamer, like Barrett, they shoot better when the lights get brighter. Jones hit 6-9 3's (35 pts, 6 rbs, 5 asts) last night as Apple Valley lost in their championship game.

Keep in mind that DeLaurier shot 41% from 3 in HS on 82 attempts. I saw Javin play in person and he was the primary ball handler, shooter. HS to college is a totally different game with a lot of extraneous forces at play. Kids are asked to take up roles for a multitude of different reasons, which can affect their confidence and development.


What happened to Javin's shot? It looks awful. Don't get me wrong Javin has value to the team but 3 point shooting is not one of them. I hope he get's better at handling the ball and catching the ball. He's a good defender when he stays out of foul trouble. I hope he works hard this offseason. GoDuke!

Troublemaker
03-26-2018, 03:24 PM
This thread is really important the more I think about it.

Next year, in RJ, Cam, Zion, and Tre, we're basically going to have some of the best slashing talent in Duke basketball history. I don't want to see that wasted by clogged lanes. Just like how this season we had one of the best postup duos in Duke history with Marvin and Wendell, and yet they were at times wasted by clogged lanes. (If you ever rewatch the Kansas game, check out how they were guarding Bagley. It was comical at times how willing they were to leave certain Duke players open to contain him, both pre-catch and post-catch.)

Ideally, we'd nab a stretch big man somehow. Mike Daum as a grad transfer would be perfect. But we could also sign or internally develop a wing shooter (Alex?) that Coach K can trust so that the Zion-at-the-5 lineup can be used often. I want to be entertained next year by all these slashers playing on a spread court.

Kedsy
03-26-2018, 03:29 PM
This thread is really important the more I think about it.

Next year, in RJ, Cam, Zion, and Tre, we're basically going to have some of the best slashing talent in Duke basketball history. I don't want to see that wasted by clogged lanes. Just like how this season we had one of the best postup duos in Duke history with Marvin and Wendell, and yet they were at times wasted by clogged lanes. (If you ever rewatch the Kansas game, check out how they were guarding Bagley. It was comical at times how willing they were to leave certain Duke players open to contain him, both pre-catch and post-catch.)

Ideally, we'd nab a stretch big man somehow. Mike Daum as a grad transfer would be perfect. But we could also sign or internally develop a wing shooter (Alex?) that Coach K can trust so that the Zion-at-the-5 lineup can be used often. I want to be entertained next year by all these slashers playing on a spread court.

One shooter does not lead to a spread court. Alex should help, in a 10 to 15 minute role, but some combination of the four freshmen (at least two and preferably three of them) need to be shooting threats in order to force defenses to come out and guard the perimeter. As we saw this year, two outside threats doesn't always do it.

CDu
03-26-2018, 03:30 PM
What happened to Javin's shot? It looks awful. Don't get me wrong Javin has value to the team but 3 point shooting is not one of them. I hope he get's better at handling the ball and catching the ball. He's a good defender when he stays out of foul trouble. I hope he works hard this offseason. GoDuke!

I would say it is a combo of the shorter 3pt line, the lower quality of competition, and less pressure. That, and he took a really low number of attempts - both in high school and in college. His free throw percentage this year is about what it was in high school, so I don't think he's gotten worse as a shooter. I just don't think he's getting to take the same shots he got in high school (both in distance and in degree of coverage).

It's really hard to describe how much worse high school basketball is compared to college basketball. I'd say that the difference is sort of like the difference in quality between college and the NBA, but I know lots of folks here don't like the NBA so it wouldn't resonate as well. I recommend everyone watches a few high school games to see just how bad it is compared to D-1 college ball. Smaller, less athletic players. Less defensive structure and awareness. Almost a completely different sport.

kAzE
03-26-2018, 03:34 PM
This thread is really important the more I think about it.

Next year, in RJ, Cam, Zion, and Tre, we're basically going to have some of the best slashing talent in Duke basketball history. I don't want to see that wasted by clogged lanes. Just like how this season we had one of the best postup duos in Duke history with Marvin and Wendell, and yet they were at times wasted by clogged lanes. (If you ever rewatch the Kansas game, check out how they were guarding Bagley. It was comical at times how willing they were to leave certain Duke players open to contain him, both pre-catch and post-catch.)

Ideally, we'd nab a stretch big man somehow. Mike Daum as a grad transfer would be perfect. But we could also sign or internally develop a wing shooter (Alex?) that Coach K can trust so that the Zion-at-the-5 lineup can be used often. I want to be entertained next year by all these slashers playing on a spread court.

Great post. Really reinforces how Gary Trent's NBA draft decision has huge ramifications for next year's team. We're a totally different (and MUCH better) team if he stays.

The one caveat though is that Zion doesn't necessarily need to catch it in the post to be effective. He's quite good off the dribble if he's matched up against a slower big man on the perimeter. I'm hoping that leads to slightly less congested lanes in the middle. This team could conceivably play with 5 guys outside the paint on offense.

The other thing is, because we have such incredible slashing playmakers, we are going to get some very wide open looks at 3 pointers. It's just up to the players to knock some of those down.

CDu
03-26-2018, 03:40 PM
One shooter does not lead to a spread court. Alex should help, in a 10 to 15 minute role, but some combination of the four freshmen (at least two and preferably three of them) need to be shooting threats in order to force defenses to come out and guard the perimeter. As we saw this year, two outside threats doesn't always do it.

Yeah, I think 2 shooters can be enough to space the floor, but it requires that those 2 guys be off ball.

Basically, I think this team's offense was hampered by Duval's lack of progress. The ball really needed to be in his hands on offense. Otherwise, things were always going to get stagnant. With him off-ball, teams could largely play off him and double-team the post. Same was true with DeLaurier. When DeLaurier AND Duval were in the game (especially whenever DeLaurier was at the 3), it was a nightmare, because then you'd have 4 guys cheating into the paint and one guy guarding Allen.

Duval was really valuable to this team defensively (see the UNC loss in the ACC tournament for an example of how critical he was), and even at times down the stretch he was a difference maker offensively. But we really were hamstrung unless he had the ball in his hands, because defenses just didn't feel the need to defend him when he was off ball. And that made life miserable for Bagley inside.

As for next year, I don't know that we need 3-4 guys hitting 40% from 3. But we need at least 2-3 guys who can hit 35+% from 3 in order to keep the defense somewhat honest. If we don't get that, it's going to require a lot of heavy lifting to get our buckets consistently.

I think it also helps that we will have more guys who handle the ball well. This year, we really only had two guys who you could trust to dribble in the halfcourt (Allen and Duval). Next year, we should have at least 3, and possibly 4 if O'Connell gets stronger. Dribbling is one of the most important skills to have, because if you can dribble in traffic you can have a chance to play through a packed-in defense.

I think we'll be a good offense either way, mind you. We pretty much always are good offensively. Even this year, we're talking about a top-3 offensive team for the season as if it was a huge problem. At some point, the talent just overcomes it. But, like this year, we might be susceptible here and there to teams just totally packing it in.

Troublemaker
03-26-2018, 03:40 PM
One shooter does not lead to a spread court. Alex should help, in a 10 to 15 minute role, but some combination of the four freshmen (at least two and preferably three of them) need to be shooting threats in order to force defenses to come out and guard the perimeter. As we saw this year, two outside threats doesn't always do it.

Yeah, no kidding. I wasn't implying otherwise.

Based on what I've read and seen, I feel comfortable that Cam and RJ will shoot well, particularly Cam. So what I'm asking for is a third shooter to emerge, not a first shooter. Ideally, though, the staff can work with Tre (who's an 80% FT shooter) to become reliable from three, AND a fourth shooter emerges.

kAzE
03-26-2018, 03:47 PM
I think it also helps that we will have more guys who handle the ball well. This year, we really only had two guys who you could trust to dribble in the halfcourt (Allen and Duval). Next year, we should have at least 3, and possibly 4 if O'Connell gets stronger. Dribbling is one of the most important skills to have, because if you can dribble in traffic you can have a chance to play through a packed-in defense.

I honestly think there's a decent chance that Zion can be used as a ball handler in the right match ups (sort of like how we used Jabari). I think I'd be comfortable with him taking opposing big men off the dribble from the 3 point line and finding the open man with his great passing skills, or just dunking on whoever is unfortunate enough to have to come help. He's actually quite good at avoiding offensive fouls, too.

proelitedota
03-26-2018, 03:50 PM
This thread is really important the more I think about it.

Next year, in RJ, Cam, Zion, and Tre, we're basically going to have some of the best slashing talent in Duke basketball history. I don't want to see that wasted by clogged lanes. Just like how this season we had one of the best postup duos in Duke history with Marvin and Wendell, and yet they were at times wasted by clogged lanes. (If you ever rewatch the Kansas game, check out how they were guarding Bagley. It was comical at times how willing they were to leave certain Duke players open to contain him, both pre-catch and post-catch.)

Ideally, we'd nab a stretch big man somehow. Mike Daum as a grad transfer would be perfect. But we could also sign or internally develop a wing shooter (Alex?) that Coach K can trust so that the Zion-at-the-5 lineup can be used often. I want to be entertained next year by all these slashers playing on a spread court.

We're the favorite for landing EJ Montgomery. Who honestly is a better suit at the 4 spot than Zion. Can we trade Zion for a junior / senior combo guard ala Phil Booth / Jalen Bruson?

phaedrus
03-26-2018, 03:57 PM
It's really hard to describe how much worse high school basketball is compared to college basketball. I'd say that the difference is sort of like the difference in quality between college and the NBA, but I know lots of folks here don't like the NBA so it wouldn't resonate as well. I recommend everyone watches a few high school games to see just how bad it is compared to D-1 college ball. Smaller, less athletic players. Less defensive structure and awareness. Almost a completely different sport.

Think of the team we beat in our worst beat-down of the year: St. Francis PA, ranked somewhere in the 200s by KenPom, who we beat 124-67. (Javin had 9 points and 6 boards.)

Now think of the team that they beat in their worst beat-down of the year: Franciscan College, a bad DIII team out of the Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference, who they beat 96-54.

Now think of the Franciscan players 3-4 years ago, in high school. That's the average high school team.

CDu
03-26-2018, 04:55 PM
I honestly think there's a decent chance that Zion can be used as a ball handler in the right match ups (sort of like how we used Jabari). I think I'd be comfortable with him taking opposing big men off the dribble from the 3 point line and finding the open man with his great passing skills, or just dunking on whoever is unfortunate enough to have to come help. He's actually quite good at avoiding offensive fouls, too.

Oh I agree. If he is at the 4 against a big 4, or at the 5, he can absolutely attack off the dribble. He does a good job of staying compact with his dribble, unlike a guy like Bagley who shows a lot of the ball. That dribbling skill combined with his raw strength suggest he will do well attacking bigs off the dribble.

He is surprisingly nimble for a big man. Kind of a physical cross between Barkley and LeBron. He doesn’t shoot well and I don’t think he is much of a passer, but he is quite capable off the dribble as long as he isn’t on a small quick guy.

Of course, if he gets matched up on a small quick guy, he can then play bullyball instead.

kAzE
03-26-2018, 04:57 PM
Oh I agree. If he is at the 4 against a big 4, or at the 5, he can absolutely attack off the dribble. He does a good job of staying compact with his dribble, unlike a guy like Bagley who shows a lot of the ball. That dribbling skill combined with his raw strength suggest he will do well attacking bigs off the dribble.

He is surprisingly nimble for a big man. Kind of a physical cross between Barkley and LeBron. He doesn’t shoot well and I don’t think he is much of a passer, but he is quite capable off the dribble as long as he isn’t on a small quick guy.

Of course, if he gets matched up on a small quick guy, he can then play bullyball instead.

I haven't seen him play all that much (outside of youtube videos), but people in the know seem to be impressed by his passing. I've seen multiple scouts say he is excellent at making plays for others.

Here's one such excerpt from a scouting report:
(Zion)’s also a willing and skilled passer. Williamson described himself as a “point forward” and noted his ball-handling ability as his most underrated attribute. It showed throughout the camp. He can push the ball off a rebound and doesn’t hesitate to swing the ball on the perimeter. He also made some crafty high-low passes when playing with a more traditional big man from the top of the key.

And another one from a different article:
Williamson's passing could end up being excellent: He dished a variety of nice looks to his teammates both in transition and half-court sets. One of the better passes was a one-handed bullet off the dribble to a cutting guard in transition, threading the needle between defenders for a layup.

This is from Sports Illustrated:
He’s a truly astounding athlete—no player with his heft should be able to elevate like that, and no teenager should be that powerful attacking the basket and manipulating the air beneath him. He is a terrific passer and gets little credit for being unselfish, spending lots of time with the ball in his hands but rarely taking a poor shot.

I think we have 4 legitimate play makers next year. I think we will have a chance to be a VERY good passing team. The question is whether or not we have the shooting to space the floor adequately.

Devilwin
03-26-2018, 04:58 PM
I have been watching video of all four of next years stars all day, and I love what I see. Barrett and Reddish are both silky smooth shooters, with range to three. Williamson can also make the three, but the way he can sky and with his power he does not need to shoot threes. Jones is not as bad as some said he was from three, but has excellent mid range touch, excellent at slashing to the basket, and is one hell of a good defender. Feel good at our chances..That being said, I know all these mix tapes are highlights against other kids their age, but still, the skill sets are there.

OZ
03-26-2018, 05:12 PM
From ESPN: "He's not a great three-point shooter and only an above average athlete so it remains to be seen just how far his game translates. He's rarely going to blow right by a set defender or play above the rim in traffic. His inconsistencies as a spot-up shooter are only going to become more glaring at the next level when he won't have the ball in his hands quite as much."

From DraftExpress: "Jump-shot is a major work in progress. Release is not particularly smooth or fluid. Tends to fling the ball at the basket"

He is a career 32% 3pt shooter. This year? 26.9% from 3 on by far his most attempts (29 of 108) (courtesy of MNBasketballhub stats).

And he is rank 8th in country? Those below 10 must just be learning to dribble

Devilwin
03-26-2018, 05:38 PM
I didn't see those flaws.

CDu
03-26-2018, 05:42 PM
And he is rank 8th in country? Those below 10 must just be learning to dribble

I think it's just that shooting ability is a pretty low trait on prospect ratings. Especially for PGs, where being able to run the offense, control the tempo to the best for the team, and make good decisions with the basketball is so much more important. Jones is good at all the little stuff a PG does. He's just not a knock-down 3pt shooter (or at least he hasn't been to this point).