PDA

View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs Syracuse NCAAT S16 (3/23 9:37) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread



Pages : [1] 2

DukeBlue666s
03-18-2018, 09:13 PM
Letís chat it up! Didnít think we would be seeing Syracuse, but Iím glad we are. Going to be a battle of the zones. Do we throw a little M2M to throw them off? Donít think they will be studying any M2M from us.

We have a bigger spread against them than we did Rhode Island ... consider me shocked!

Bluedog
03-18-2018, 09:17 PM
We have a bigger spread against them than we did Rhode Island ... consider me shocked!

That's because we destroyed RI and have looked dominant in our two games. I'd imagine if we played Cuse second round, spread would be similar.

Kenpom predicts a 71-61 victory. (Seems unlikely to be that high scoring in my opinion). I'm glad we have a week to prepare for the zone.

Looking forward to it! Should be a crowd dominated by Kansas fans. I assume they'll be cheering for Cuse. So, will need to battle that I'd imagine, but I like this team's chances for sure. Let's do this!!

DU82
03-18-2018, 09:19 PM
That's because we destroyed RI and have looked dominant in our two games. I'd imagine if we played Cuse second round, spread would be similar.

Kenpom predicts a 71-61 victory. (Seems unlikely to be that high scoring in my opinion).

Looking forward to it! Should be a crowd dominated by Kansas fans. I assume they'll be cheering for Cuse. So, will need to battle that I'd imagine, but I like this team's chances for sure. Let's do this!!

Iíd guess that we will be the second game, and the Kansas fans will be gone by the time our game starts after losing to the Tigers.

weezie
03-18-2018, 09:20 PM
Still weird that both teams have to go to Omaha to play this.

Bluedog
03-18-2018, 09:20 PM
Iíd guess that we will be the second game, and the Kansas fans will be gone by the time our game starts after losing to the Tigers.

That would be fantastic!! Sure hoping for that. Clemson looked legit tonight and I'm sure won't be intimidated by a good but beatable Kansas squad. But yeah, good point about being more likely to be the second game. Never know who sticks around but usually if your team wins, you do.

DukeBlue666s
03-18-2018, 09:33 PM
If Clemson plays on friday like they did today, they will be a tough out for ANYONE (except maybe UMBC).

I predict a 16 point victory ... I just think everything is clicking at the right time. Kinda like 2015 and if Iím not mistaken, we had a pretty good year that year.

Hingeknocker
03-18-2018, 09:34 PM
That would be fantastic!! Sure hoping for that. Clemson looked legit tonight and I'm sure won't be intimidated by a good but beatable Kansas squad. But yeah, good point about being more likely to be the second game. Never know who sticks around but usually if your team wins, you do.

There were a lot of Carolina fans who stuck around to cheer on UMBC in Charlotte's second game. It's nice that those Heels fans had at least one close game to watch today...

weezie
03-18-2018, 09:39 PM
Iíd guess that we will be the second game, and the Kansas fans will be gone by the time our game starts after losing to the Tigers.

Really, think we'll be second game? Ugh, I hope not.

Bluedog
03-18-2018, 09:42 PM
Really, think we'll be second game? Ugh, I hope not.

Duke is a bigger TV pull than Kansas in all likelihood. ;)

subzero02
03-18-2018, 09:50 PM
We are favored by 11.5 points with an o/u of 133.5. We are also -800 on the money line which implies a win probability of 88.89%. I really don't see us losing this game if we our performance is somewhat close to how we played vs. Iona and Rhode Island.

sagegrouse
03-18-2018, 09:52 PM
Duke is a bigger TV pull than Kansas in all likelihood. ;)

I dunno. Both games are "blue" versus "orange." A lot of people won't know the difference.

devildeac
03-18-2018, 09:53 PM
Still weird that both teams have to go to Omaha to play this.

Yea, should be in Greensboro (:rolleyes:).

gocanes0506
03-18-2018, 10:06 PM
Keys for this one will be Duvalís breakdown of the top of the zone and do we make 10 jumpers/ 3 pointers.

Beat it up inside early to get their decent center out with foul trouble. They are very thin at center. Also, MSU was killing them on the boards.

scottdude8
03-18-2018, 10:12 PM
Watching Syracuse win today in Detroit Iím very optimistic about this matchup. Syracuse is very offensively challenged... nearly every basket they got today was off of a contested shot. However, donít sleep on Dolezaj (sp?), a baby-faced freshman with surprising hops. Meanwhile, although the zone is certainly stout, MSU failed against it largely because they had no one to turn to at the high post (they didnít trust Jackson or Bridges there, turning to a seldom used transfer, Ben Carter, instead, and he looked lost). Both Carter and Bagley have shown they can make the corner jumper, drive from the high post, and make post-entry passes from a high-low set. That doesnít even mention our improved three point shooting (MSU was atrocious shooting the call today). Obviously anything can happen in a matchup between conference foes, but from my perspective all of the things MSU struggled with today are things this Duke team has answers for.

JD for Three!
03-18-2018, 10:16 PM
My apologies if this was shared somewhere earlier. A good article about Grayson's leadership...

http://nyp.st/2tXk7Hf

duke2x
03-18-2018, 10:16 PM
Duke is a bigger TV pull than Kansas in all likelihood. ;)

Duke-Syracuse >> KS-Clemson with apologies to Clemson. I think it's only 60-40 we are the late game on Friday night. We will be on CBS over TNT since the other games are Villanova-WVA (probable) and Purdue-TX Tech.

subzero02
03-18-2018, 10:20 PM
We play on CBS at 9:37pm on Friday.

https://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1

ndkjr70
03-18-2018, 10:22 PM
I have a wedding on Friday. I have a feeling my wife will be very upset at me by the end of the day on Friday, when my bathroom break is in 50-minute increments. I ordered her a necklace online today that sheís been eyeing for years. Plan ahead, folks.

Furniture
03-18-2018, 10:42 PM
I have a wedding on Friday. I have a feeling my wife will be very upset at me by the end of the day on Friday, when my bathroom break is in 50-minute increments. I ordered her a necklace online today that sheís been eyeing for years. Plan ahead, folks.

Typical Duke fan. Well done sir!!

Bluedog
03-18-2018, 10:55 PM
We play on CBS at 9:37pm on Friday.

https://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1

At least that's 8:37pm Omaha time, but I hate these crazy late start times ... They should only do it for games being played out west.

BigZ
03-18-2018, 11:05 PM
Does Kansas always get home games in the Regionals?

MrPoon
03-18-2018, 11:07 PM
Does Kansas always get home games in the Regionals?

Only when they win the Big 12. :)

cptnflash
03-18-2018, 11:13 PM
This is obviously a fantastic outcome for us - Syracuse is the worst team remaining in the field according to kenpom. Much better than having to play a mis-seeded Michigan State team with legit championship aspirations.

robed deity
03-18-2018, 11:14 PM
This is obviously a fantastic outcome for us - Syracuse is the worst team remaining in the field according to kenpom. Much better than having to play a mis-seeded Michigan State team with legit championship aspirations.

If they can beat MSU, they can beat Duke. I like the matchup but anything can happen when they muck it up.

Hingeknocker
03-18-2018, 11:18 PM
Does Kansas always get home games in the Regionals?

Last year in KC (45 minutes from Lawrence, and by absolute miles the largest concentration of KU alums/fans) and this year in Omaha (3 hours from Lawrence) is beyond absurd. Oh, and next year's Midwest regional is in Kansas City again.

I don't know what Bill Self did to get this prime placement three consecutive years, but it's a lot. Looking forward to whoever has the chance to deny the Jayhawks cashing in a Final 4 appearance.

Bluedog
03-18-2018, 11:32 PM
Last year in KC (45 minutes from Lawrence, and by absolute miles the largest concentration of KU alums/fans) and this year in Omaha (3 hours from Lawrence) is beyond absurd. Oh, and next year's Midwest regional is in Kansas City again.

I don't know what Bill Self did to get this prime placement three consecutive years, but it's a lot. Looking forward to whoever has the chance to deny the Jayhawks cashing in a Final 4 appearance.

You would think Chicago, Indy, Detroit, Minneapolis, and cities in Ohio would get the Midwest regional more frequently than Kansas/Nebraska.

KandG
03-18-2018, 11:46 PM
Looking forward to the usual detailed scouting report, but there really aren't too many secrets to be revealed about how Syracuse does what they do at this point. It was all there on full display against Michigan State: take all the rhythm out of the opponent's offense (whether it's inside play or perimeter jumpers) with their incredible length in the zone, and score opportunistically, run isolations for their key guys, and try to get to the FT line as much as possible.

Syracuse gave up more offensive rebounds and second chance points than they would have liked vs MSU, but the hideous volume three point shooting by the Spartans and the ability of the Cuse to get to the foul line and shoot 31 FTs with their grimly one dimensional offense was a pretty good template for their success. Taking a broad scan of their recent games, they do well when they can force a lot of uncomfortable 3 pointers and when they can get to the line for 20+ FTs.

Our game against Syracuse in Cameron was mostly under control, but we really didn't gain separation for good until we made our first three pointer (by Duval!) with over 7 minutes left in the game. I'm sure they were happy they limited us to 2-18 on three pointers on that night, but we kept their FTs to single digits with our zone and Bagley and Carter was more skilled size than they're used to seeing. Also, Grayson and Trevon kept their turnovers low and we managed to turn them over 17 times.

I expect a similar result on Friday, though I have to say I was very impressed by how focused Syracuse was against an opponent as talented as MSU, no matter how gruesome and limited it looked. I'm sure K will tell the team again, as he did with the first game, not to get too hung up if the offense isn't pretty as long as they're frustrating Syracuse just as much or more.

OldPhiKap
03-19-2018, 05:54 AM
Still weird that both teams have to go to Omaha to play this.

ďAt least itís not in GreensboroĒ

ó Jimmy B.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-19-2018, 06:38 AM
If they can beat MSU, they can beat Duke. I like the matchup but anything can happen when they muck it up.

Yeah, this weekend should have been an advertisement against the dangers of hubris.

Remember, something like 23 of 25 ESPN talking heads picks MSU for the Final Four.

Spanarkel
03-19-2018, 07:07 AM
Appreciate the excellent analyses of Friday's Duke-Cuse matchup by CDu and others.

Duke has shot below the hoops Mendoza line of 30% in 12 of our 35 games this year. That gives me some pause, but I think our guys are generally taking "better" threes over the past few weeks. Let's go, Duke!

Spanarkel
03-19-2018, 07:55 AM
Appreciate the excellent analyses of Friday's Duke-Cuse matchup by CDu and others.

Duke has shot below the hoops Mendoza line of 30% in 12 of our 35 games this year. That gives me some pause, but I think our guys are generally taking "better" threes over the past few weeks. Let's go, Duke!

Sorry, below 30% from 3...

UrinalCake
03-19-2018, 08:41 AM
I was at the game when we played them in Cameron. First half was ugly. At one point it looked like Cuse might not break 10 points by halftime (I think they would up with 15). We couldnít hit anything ourselves but had about 14 dunks so that helped. Throwing over the zone for alley-oops worked really well. Our full court zone press was also effective as we got a few ďpick sixĒ style run outs.

Both teams are playing much better now but like most opponents they have no answer for Carter and Bagley. Both should be able to operate out of the middle of that zone.

I feel confident and Iím thrilled that weíre not facing MSU, but with that said every team still alive at this point is inherently a good team and/or playing well. Syracuse made the FF as a double digit seed a couple years ago, and Iím pretty sure they were big underdogs in every game along the way. Stay focused and take care of business and we should be able to get the W.

uh_no
03-19-2018, 08:45 AM
Yeah, this weekend should have been an advertisement against the dangers of hubris.

Remember, something like 23 of 25 ESPN talking heads picks MSU for the Final Four.

or perhaps the dangers of listening to anything ESPN talking heads say.

OldPhiKap
03-19-2018, 08:54 AM
I was at the game when we played them in Cameron. First half was ugly. At one point it looked like Cuse might not break 10 points by halftime (I think they would up with 15). We couldnít hit anything ourselves but had about 14 dunks so that helped. Throwing over the zone for alley-oops worked really well. Our full court zone press was also effective as we got a few ďpick sixĒ style run outs.

Both teams are playing much better now but like most opponents they have no answer for Carter and Bagley. Both should be able to operate out of the middle of that zone.

I feel confident and Iím thrilled that weíre not facing MSU, but with that said every team still alive at this point is inherently a good team and/or playing well. Syracuse made the FF as a double digit seed a couple years ago, and Iím pretty sure they were big underdogs in every game along the way. Stay focused and take care of business and we should be able to get the W.

Good summary and outlook.

I am glad we're not playing MSU primarily because of how physical those games always are. I always feel that we show some wear the next game out.

Syracuse is well-coached, capable, and motivated. This will be a tough game. Having said that, we seem to be peaking at the right time. If we can play like we did against URI and Iona, we are going to be hard for anyone to stop.

Can't wait for Friday!

CDu
03-19-2018, 08:57 AM
A second tip-of-the-cap to Syracuse for making my life easier too. :) This is mostly copy/pasted from the in-game thread earlier this year. Let's hope for a repeat of that game.

The Orange run a zone that looks VERY similar to our zone. They play a really aggressive zone with their forwards moving all up and down the flanks depending upon the positioning of the offensive players. They'll trap in the corners and on the sidelines. They will use their length and athleticism to create havoc. And if they had just a little more talent, they'd be the nightmare they can usually be. They have the 5th best defense (per Pomeroy, 7th per T-Rank) over the course of the season. We currently sit at 5th in T-Rank and 8th in Pomeroy, though both numbers belie how well we have played in zone: we are the #1 defense in the country over the past 10 games (Syracuse is 5th). Like us, they defend FG attempts quite well. Like us, they are not great at defensive rebounding. Unlike us, they are decent at forcing turnovers (though again, our numbers will look better when we are in zone). UNLIKE us, they commit fouls (the discrepancy is greater now that we are in zone). But basically, what you see from us in zone is relatively comparable to what you see from Syracuse in zone.

Offensively is where the two teams diverge. The Cuse simply aren't great offensively. Their biggest problems are that they just can't shoot. They are 325th in the nation in 3pt%. They do a decent job on the offensive glass, although less so in ACC play where they have been mediocre. They also draw a lot of fouls with their athletic guards/wings, and they shoot well from the line. But this is a bottom tier of the ACC team on offense. If we contain their guard/wings, it will be a long night for Syracuse offensively.

As you might expect, the Orange play VERY slow. They are 345st in the country in pace. Combined with our zone, this could be a low-scoring game (relatively speaking). They scored just 44 against us in Cameron, so I would expect to see Syracuse's score in the 50s in Omaha.

Centers: Paschal Chukwu (7'2", 230lb junior transfer from Providence) is the man in the middle. Chukwu is a gifted run/jump athlete for his size, and is obviously a huge shotblocking presence. But he's not very strong, and has basically zero offensive skills. He is a good offensive rebounder and can (and will) dunk, but isn't going to score on post ups. We will need to account for him on the baseline and keep him off the glass. But he's largely a nonfactor on offense if he isn't catching lobs. Defensively, he blocks A LOT of shots, but is a poor rebounder (a common affliction for shotblockers). And he can be bodied out of position easily. He also fouls at a high rate for being the center on a zone team. Bourama Sidibe (6'10", 205lb freshman) is the backup C, and he's largely a "ditto" to Chukwu. Terrific shotblocker, good athlete, no polish offensively. Sidibe is substantially more foul-prone than Chukwu, and is even less stout physically.

Forwards: Forwards are the staple of Boeheim's zone. They tend to be long and lean. This year's group is no exception. Oshae Brissett (6'8", 210lb freshman) is the top dog among the forwards. Brissett has made a great deal of progress as a catch-and-shoot player, but the strength of his game is still definitely his length, athleticism, and energy. He is a fantastic defensive rebounder and leads the team in total rebounds. He is a pretty decent 3pt shooter (34%), but really struggles elsewhere (35% overall). When he can stand still, though, his shot has been solid (79% FT shooter). He is a streaky shooter though, and if he is hitting the Cuse looks much better. If Brissett comes out of the game, it won't be for long. Marek Dolezaj (6'9", 180lb freshman from Slovakia) is the other starter. Dolezaj is a fairly nimble guy at 6'9", with a skill set not unlike Mike Dunleavy's. He's not nearly as good, most especially not as a shooter yet. But he's got ball skills and good fluid athleticism. He isn't going to jump out of the gym, but he is surprisingly springy. He's more of a combo forward that fits nicely in the 2-3 where he doesn't have to be a true post or true perimeter guy. Dolezaj is still adapting to US basketball, and fouls too much at times. Probably a year or two away from being a true impact player, but not a bad player now. Behind Brissett and Dolezaj is the Cuse's only other major minutes getter, Matthew Moyer (6'8", 215lb redshirt freshman). Moyer is a high-energy, glue guy type that fits in nicely at the forward spot in the 2-3. He doesn't bring a lot of skills to the table at this point though, and mostly does dirty work type of stuff. Decent defensive rebounder, not really noteworthy anywhere else.

Wings: The Orange pretty much just play one wing, Tyus Battle (6'6", 205lb sophomore). Battle is a fearless scorer who is asked to carry an inordinate amount of the offensive load for Syracuse. He is a terrific athlete, very capable off the dribble and finishing in traffic. He's a really streaky jumpshooter though, and is a little too willing to shoot his way out of a "slump." He's a career 34% 3pt shooter on over 5 attempts per game. Battle is best off the dribble attacking the basket and drawing fouls, where he is a terrific free throw shooter. I expect that skill to be mitigated by our zone, but he's quite capable of getting hot with the jumper. He's a very dynamic player who will play in the NBA perhaps as early as next year. Battle almost never leaves the court. Barring foul trouble or injury, he's going to play 40 minutes for the Cuse.

Guards: See above. Frank Howard (6'5", 205lb junior) comes out of the game only slightly more often than Battle. Howard is a combo guard who has really improved this year from being an afterthought the past two seasons. He is a big, strong, athletic guard who can handle the ball and is adequate as a PG, but it really isn't a strength of his game. He's developed into a fairly effective 3pt shooter (35%, best on the team) and not awful free throw shooter (70%). But like Battle, he's more athletic than he is polished. Perhaps even moreso, as Battle is a better FT shooter and FG shooter overall. Still, for what Howard is asked to do playing 40 minutes at PG, he's had an impressive season. It's not his fault that the team just doesn't have enough weapons right now.

The Orange basically have three guys that can score (Battle, Howard, and Brissett) and two guys who can dribble (Battle and Howard). It's phenomenal that they have been as competitive as they've been this year, and that's a testament to Boeheim's coaching and that zone. The Orange are also very young at several spots, and inexperienced almost everywhere.

As was the case in the first game, the key will be containing Battle and Howard. If we do that, the Orange get VERY stagnant on offense. They just don't have a lot of weapons. And while they are VERY stout defensively, I don't think they are good enough defensively to beat us if they aren't playing well on offense. If we get to 60, I think we will win.

DukeBlue666s
03-19-2018, 09:07 AM
Iíve always wondered something but not sure if itís possible to put a sheet together as the research itself could be time consuming (Paging uh_no):

Regarding the NCAA Tournament, maybe going back only 10 years or so, is there a record anywhere of our record during the day (say ... before 6pm) vs our record during night games???

I would think the teams enjoy playing night games rather than during the day. When I used to ball, I felt I played better after the sun went down.

Anyone else ever ponder this?

FerryFor50
03-19-2018, 09:09 AM
A second tip-of-the-cap to Syracuse for making my life easier too. :) This is mostly copy/pasted from the in-game thread earlier this year. Let's hope for a repeat of that game.

The Orange run a zone that looks VERY similar to our zone. They play a really aggressive zone with their forwards moving all up and down the flanks depending upon the positioning of the offensive players. They'll trap in the corners and on the sidelines. They will use their length and athleticism to create havoc. And if they had just a little more talent, they'd be the nightmare they can usually be. They have the 5th best defense (per Pomeroy, 7th per T-Rank) over the course of the season. We currently sit at 5th in T-Rank and 8th in Pomeroy, though both numbers belie how well we have played in zone: we are the #1 defense in the country over the past 10 games (Syracuse is 5th). Like us, they defend FG attempts quite well. Like us, they are not great at defensive rebounding. Unlike us, they are decent at forcing turnovers (though again, our numbers will look better when we are in zone). UNLIKE us, they commit fouls (the discrepancy is greater now that we are in zone). But basically, what you see from us in zone is relatively comparable to what you see from Syracuse in zone.

Offensively is where the two teams diverge. The Cuse simply aren't great offensively. Their biggest problems are that they just can't shoot. They are 325th in the nation in 3pt%. They do a decent job on the offensive glass, although less so in ACC play where they have been mediocre. They also draw a lot of fouls with their athletic guards/wings, and they shoot well from the line. But this is a bottom tier of the ACC team on offense. If we contain their guard/wings, it will be a long night for Syracuse offensively.

As you might expect, the Orange play VERY slow. They are 345st in the country in pace. Combined with our zone, this could be a low-scoring game (relatively speaking). They scored just 44 against us in Cameron, so I would expect to see Syracuse's score in the 50s in Omaha.

Centers: Paschal Chukwu (7'2", 230lb junior transfer from Providence) is the man in the middle. Chukwu is a gifted run/jump athlete for his size, and is obviously a huge shotblocking presence. But he's not very strong, and has basically zero offensive skills. He is a good offensive rebounder and can (and will) dunk, but isn't going to score on post ups. We will need to account for him on the baseline and keep him off the glass. But he's largely a nonfactor on offense if he isn't catching lobs. Defensively, he blocks A LOT of shots, but is a poor rebounder (a common affliction for shotblockers). And he can be bodied out of position easily. He also fouls at a high rate for being the center on a zone team. Bourama Sidibe (6'10", 205lb freshman) is the backup C, and he's largely a "ditto" to Chukwu. Terrific shotblocker, good athlete, no polish offensively. Sidibe is substantially more foul-prone than Chukwu, and is even less stout physically.

Forwards: Forwards are the staple of Boeheim's zone. They tend to be long and lean. This year's group is no exception. Oshae Brissett (6'8", 210lb freshman) is the top dog among the forwards. Brissett has made a great deal of progress as a catch-and-shoot player, but the strength of his game is still definitely his length, athleticism, and energy. He is a fantastic defensive rebounder and leads the team in total rebounds. He is a pretty decent 3pt shooter (34%), but really struggles elsewhere (35% overall). When he can stand still, though, his shot has been solid (79% FT shooter). He is a streaky shooter though, and if he is hitting the Cuse looks much better. If Brissett comes out of the game, it won't be for long. Marek Dolezaj (6'9", 180lb freshman from Slovakia) is the other starter. Dolezaj is a fairly nimble guy at 6'9", with a skill set not unlike Mike Dunleavy's. He's not nearly as good, most especially not as a shooter yet. But he's got ball skills and good fluid athleticism. He isn't going to jump out of the gym, but he is surprisingly springy. He's more of a combo forward that fits nicely in the 2-3 where he doesn't have to be a true post or true perimeter guy. Dolezaj is still adapting to US basketball, and fouls too much at times. Probably a year or two away from being a true impact player, but not a bad player now. Behind Brissett and Dolezaj is the Cuse's only other major minutes getter, Matthew Moyer (6'8", 215lb redshirt freshman). Moyer is a high-energy, glue guy type that fits in nicely at the forward spot in the 2-3. He doesn't bring a lot of skills to the table at this point though, and mostly does dirty work type of stuff. Decent defensive rebounder, not really noteworthy anywhere else.

Wings: The Orange pretty much just play one wing, Tyus Battle (6'6", 205lb sophomore). Battle is a fearless scorer who is asked to carry an inordinate amount of the offensive load for Syracuse. He is a terrific athlete, very capable off the dribble and finishing in traffic. He's a really streaky jumpshooter though, and is a little too willing to shoot his way out of a "slump." He's a career 34% 3pt shooter on over 5 attempts per game. Battle is best off the dribble attacking the basket and drawing fouls, where he is a terrific free throw shooter. I expect that skill to be mitigated by our zone, but he's quite capable of getting hot with the jumper. He's a very dynamic player who will play in the NBA perhaps as early as next year. Battle almost never leaves the court. Barring foul trouble or injury, he's going to play 40 minutes for the Cuse.

Guards: See above. Frank Howard (6'5", 205lb junior) comes out of the game only slightly more often than Battle. Howard is a combo guard who has really improved this year from being an afterthought the past two seasons. He is a big, strong, athletic guard who can handle the ball and is adequate as a PG, but it really isn't a strength of his game. He's developed into a fairly effective 3pt shooter (35%, best on the team) and not awful free throw shooter (70%). But like Battle, he's more athletic than he is polished. Perhaps even moreso, as Battle is a better FT shooter and FG shooter overall. Still, for what Howard is asked to do playing 40 minutes at PG, he's had an impressive season. It's not his fault that the team just doesn't have enough weapons right now.

The Orange basically have three guys that can score (Battle, Howard, and Brissett) and two guys who can dribble (Battle and Howard). It's phenomenal that they have been as competitive as they've been this year, and that's a testament to Boeheim's coaching and that zone. The Orange are also very young at several spots, and inexperienced almost everywhere.

As was the case in the first game, the key will be containing Battle and Howard. If we do that, the Orange get VERY stagnant on offense. They just don't have a lot of weapons. And while they are VERY stout defensively, I don't think they are good enough defensively to beat us if they aren't playing well on offense. If we get to 60, I think we will win.

Stats from the last meeting:

8212

8213

Bluedog
03-19-2018, 09:13 AM
Stats from the last meeting:

8212

8213

I would have to believe that we'll shoot better than 2-18 from three (with GA + Trent being 1-12) although I realize the zone makes 3s tough. Hopefully Bagley can repeat his 8-9 performance though! If our guards make good entry passes to the post and we don't turn it over, I definitely like our chances. I don't think Cuse has an answer for Bagley and Carter once they catch it down low.

Duke76
03-19-2018, 09:17 AM
Yeah, this weekend should have been an advertisement against the dangers of hubris.

Remember, something like 23 of 25 ESPN talking heads picks MSU for the Final Four.

money post right there...remember thinking it when those guys were spouting off on selection Sunday

FerryFor50
03-19-2018, 09:18 AM
money post right there...remember thinking it when those guys were spouting off on selection Sunday

This was the highlight of that hubris:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2765000-umbc-fires-back-at-seth-davis-for-sharpie-tweet-during-game-vs-virginia

uh_no
03-19-2018, 09:22 AM
This was the highlight of that hubris:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2765000-umbc-fires-back-at-seth-davis-for-sharpie-tweet-during-game-vs-virginia

The whole lot of them are alarmingly unintelligent.

COYS
03-19-2018, 10:06 AM
What I like about the rematch with Syracuse (other than the fact that it's not against the Spartans who were a far superior team throughout the regular season) is that Syracuse's strengths are Duke's strengths . . . except Duke is even stronger in those areas. Syracuse's zone has been functioning really well all season. But over the last twelve games, Duke's zone has been even better. Similarly, while Duke's offense has not played as well over that same twelve game stretch as it did earlier in the season, Syracuse has been worse on offense by a few country miles, and it's been that way all year. Duke's offense has had a few breakout games . . . most notably against Rhode Island this past weekend. Meanwhile, Syracuse has managed to win defensive slug-fests, and that's it. Their only "breakout" offensive performance in their most recent stretch of games was a 73-64 win against Wake and their 103rd-ranked defense (per T-rank (http://www.barttorvik.com/)). Duke's 60-44 victory was, in many respects, a win for Syracuse's defense. They held us in check from the perimeter on the offensive end. But our defense, even while reintegrating Marvin, absolutely smothered their offense. We even managed to grab 13 steals against them . . . something Duke hasn't done much of this season. In addition, there is plenty of reason to think Duke's offensive output will be at least a little better, as an 11% mark from three point range cannot completely be attributed to Syracuse's D. Finally, i like the fact that the team can practice against a really good zone defense. Javin, Marques, Jack, Alex, and Jordan have presumably been perfecting the zone over the past few weeks. They will make an excellent scout squad. Which also brings me to my last point. I like Duke's bench in this game way more than Syracuse's. One could make an argument that our defense gets even better when Javin enters the game. Marques had an excellent game against 'Cuse the last time out (7 points and 6 boards in only 12 minutes) and has generally been excellent backing up Wendell. Jack rebounded well against the Orange the last time out and is a solid option along the back line of the zone against a 'Cuse squad that lacks ball-handlers. And Alex, despite the fact that he is clearly the weakest of our perimeter options on defense, is always capable of knocking down a big shot or two.

I very much hope the team has a "take care of business" approach to this game. We don't need anything fancy. We don't need to impose our game on Syracuse because they basically play our game . . . just not nearly as well. Avoid the mental mistakes like dumb fouls and turnovers that could give Syracuse an opening. Keep attacking their zone and the offensive glass. Slow down their offense with our 3/4 press. I think if we are able to do these things, we should emerge with a victory barring Syracuse putting on an Arizona-2011-level performance.

Lar77
03-19-2018, 12:00 PM
I almost see this as a trap game, since we held them to 44 in Cameron. But aside from that game, Boeheim seems to get his guys up for the bright lights.

We took control last time when our shots started falling AND when we got Chukwu in foul trouble. They really fall off after their first 6.

We have better talent, are deeper, and are meshing well.

If we play like this past weekend (or even close to it), Syracuse will not be an obstacle, but I don't expect a blow out.

On the other side of the bracket, I don't know. Kansas has a big advantage playing in Omaha, but they have shown themselves to be vulnerable. Clemson played lights out against Auburn. I expect that game to be a close one.

ndkjr70
03-19-2018, 12:27 PM
I almost see this as a trap game, since we held them to 44 in Cameron. But aside from that game, Boeheim seems to get his guys up for the bright lights.

We took control last time when our shots started falling AND when we got Chukwu in foul trouble. They really fall off after their first 6.

We have better talent, are deeper, and are meshing well.

If we play like this past weekend (or even close to it), Syracuse will not be an obstacle, but I don't expect a blow out.

On the other side of the bracket, I don't know. Kansas has a big advantage playing in Omaha, but they have shown themselves to be vulnerable. Clemson played lights out against Auburn. I expect that game to be a close one.

There is no such thing as a trap game in the Sweet-16.

Truth&Justise
03-19-2018, 12:35 PM
There is no such thing as a trap game in the Sweet-16.

I don't know, we could be caught looking ahead.

I'm glad we're facing Syracuse instead of Michigan St. But Syracuse is a dangerous team that would love to muck things up, and we will have to maintain poise and focus to execute well for the win.

uh_no
03-19-2018, 12:40 PM
But Syracuse is a dangerous team that would love to muck things up, and we will have to maintain poise and focus to execute well for the win.

But that's true of ANY team we'd face in the sweet 16. You don't get to the sweet 16 because you're not a dangerous team.

Reddevil
03-19-2018, 12:47 PM
We often hear that pressing teams don't like to be pressed and trapping teams don't like to be trapped. Do zone teams dislike being zoned? I don't know where I going with this because both teams play zone. Maybe the better three point shooting team has an advantage. I do not know. Both teams know the soft spots and play against it in practice. It seems we may have better options with the guy that sets up near the foul line and either shoots our passes. Anyway it sure would make things easier if Grayson, Gary and Trevon come out hot.

CDu
03-19-2018, 12:47 PM
But that's true of ANY team we'd face in the sweet 16. You don't get to the sweet 16 because you're not a dangerous team.

Yep. Syracuse is probably the worst team still in the tournament. But they are still a top-50 team. And as last weekend showed, they still can win against good teams.

The Cuse certainly has a chance. But we are double-digit favorites to win, which is a pretty preferable place to be when you get to the Sweet-16.

uh_no
03-19-2018, 12:48 PM
We often hear that pressing teams don't like to be pressed and trapping teams don't like to be trapped.

sounds more like a cliched talking point than anything necessarily tied to reality.

Henderson
03-19-2018, 01:10 PM
There is zero risk that anyone on the Duke squad will be looking past Syracuse.

dukejim1
03-19-2018, 01:13 PM
Carter can be a real key to this game as often the offense needs to run through the high post. His ability to hit the mid-range, drop it to Bagley and relocate it to the wings makes him one of the best weapons we have had for Cuse zone.

Rich
03-19-2018, 02:01 PM
I swear it was just one moment of weakness with my niece, brother-in-law, and (gulp) Otto the Orange! I'm Duke blue, through and through. I swear, my allegiance is with the Blue Devils!

If I had known they'd meet in the Tournament I would never have taken that picture! How can I ever live this down? Woe is me.

8214

Acymetric
03-19-2018, 02:01 PM
Yep. Syracuse is probably the worst team still in the tournament. But they are still a top-50 team. And as last weekend showed, they still can win against good teams.

The Cuse certainly has a chance. But we are double-digit favorites to win, which is a pretty preferable place to be when you get to the Sweet-16.

I'm sure I'm in the minority, and the numbers don't back me up (although there is not a large disparity), but I would probably rather play Kansas State than Syracuse, and there are a couple others that I would put in more or less the same category, or maybe just slightly tougher.

OldPhiKap
03-19-2018, 02:08 PM
I swear it was just one moment of weakness with my niece, brother-in-law, and (gulp) Otto the Orange! I'm Duke blue, through and through. I swear, my allegiance is with the Blue Devils!

If I had known they'd meet in the Tournament I would never have taken that picture! How can I ever live this down? Woe is me.

8214

I can vouch for Rich as a Duke man.

As for his taste, however . . . .


;-}

Rich
03-19-2018, 02:18 PM
I can vouch for Rich as a Duke man.

As for his taste, however . . . .


;-}

Just in case there's any doubt, I'm the one who's NOT decked out in the orange garb(age)!

-jk
03-19-2018, 02:48 PM
Just in case there's any doubt, I'm the one who's NOT decked out in the orange garb(age)!

So you're the one wearing the "S" hat?

-jk

Bluedog
03-19-2018, 03:33 PM
I know we already know that Syracuse is a tall team, but thought I'd note that they are the TALLEST team in all of DI (according to kenpom's height rankings which I assume are based on who actually sees the court and the minutes they play). They are #4 in Center height, #18 in PF height, #2 in SF height, #2 in SG height, and #1 in PG height.

For the record, Duke isn't far behind at #3 (or maybe even tied for #2...), but the difference in raw score between Syracuse at #1 and Duke #3 is the same as the difference between 2 and 24. So, they are #1 by a lot. Duke's ranks by position in the same order as listed above are: 6, 23, 2, 33, 9, and 9. San Jose St is #2 incidentally although have the same raw score as Duke (rounding I assume makes them them appear the same even though I'd assume San Jose St takes it by a hair). Loyola is the shortest team remaining in the field, ranked 226 which is way way below the next shortest K St at 111.

They also rank 7th in FTs attempted, so we need to keep them off the line. They are among only 3 teams in the P5 conference that rank in the top 20.

flyingdutchdevil
03-19-2018, 03:52 PM
This is going to be an interesting game for Coach K. Duval is spectacular, but I think he may be held in check (okay, be ineffective) against the Cuse zone.

In 25 minutes against Cuse, Duval had 3 points (going 1-8, including 1-5), 3 assists, and 2 turnovers. The zone is really unfriendly to Duval; he can't penetrate it and the Cuse length is great at creating turnovers. Also, if he's open on the 3 (and you better believe he will be), he needs to capitalize on that.

I'm curious how Coach K is going to manage this one. I've always said Duval is key to our success; I just have no idea how he's gonna fair against the Cuse zone.

Hingeknocker
03-19-2018, 03:53 PM
They also rank 7th in FTs attempted, so we need to keep them off the line. They are among only 3 teams in the P5 conference that rank in the top 20.

I looked up the box score from our game in Cameron, and we actually held Syracuse to 6 FTA. I figured that had to be among their lowest of the season, and in fact it was tied for the lowest they attempted all year. Notre Dame also held them to 6 FTA; Virginia and Miami were able to limit them to 9 FTA, which rounds out the 4 games all year that they didn't crack double figures.

Hopefully we can replicate this kind of defensive performance on Friday. Per Bart Torvik, Duke is the best in the country at limiting opponents' free throws. As we saw against Michigan State, free throws are a huge part of the Syracuse offense.

TexHawk
03-19-2018, 04:05 PM
Last year in KC (45 minutes from Lawrence, and by absolute miles the largest concentration of KU alums/fans) and this year in Omaha (3 hours from Lawrence) is beyond absurd. Oh, and next year's Midwest regional is in Kansas City again.

I don't know what Bill Self did to get this prime placement three consecutive years, but it's a lot. Looking forward to whoever has the chance to deny the Jayhawks cashing in a Final 4 appearance.

After KC next year, it goes Indy-Minneapolis-Chicago. Prior to last year, it was a steady stream of Chicago-Cleveland-Indy-St Louis, even San Antonio one year, as the Southwest Region. Prior to 2017, KC hadn't hosted a regional since 1995. Between 2004 and 2017, KC didn't host any tournament games at all. This is the first year Nebraska has hosted a regional... ever. I know y'all think the Big12 is Division II conference, but it's good business to bring games to where teams and fans are.

How many tournament games have Duke (or UNC) played in the state of North Carolina this decade? (No idea the answer, but it feels like it's "a lot").

And I keep telling y'all, the homecourt advantage certainly didn't help against Oregon last year. Oregon had like 4 fans in the crowd (vs 19,000 Jayhawk fans), and we know how that turned out.

* I used "y'all" twice in one post, hope that's ok.

sagegrouse
03-19-2018, 04:10 PM
* I used "y'all" twice in one post, hope that's ok.

Tweren't no problem.

Bluedog
03-19-2018, 04:19 PM
How many tournament games have Duke (or UNC) played in the state of North Carolina this decade? (No idea the answer, but it feels like it's "a lot").

To me, seems like North Carolina gets the first and second round basically every year, but rarely regional finals. (Although I haven't looked into the data admittedly). But, for Duke, being in a location nearby isn't necessarily an advantage unlike most other schools. I'd say the stadium layout/configuration actually has a pretty large impact on if it's a "home court" advantage vs. just the sheer number of fans. Playing Butler in Indy was 90%+ Butler fans, but because it was in a huge football stadium, the sound just dissipates more and it's not as intense on the court for the players since people are far away. Being in a stadium like Cameron or Allen Fieldhouse is a bit of a different beast. :) No idea what CenturyLink is like, but I'd imagine somewhere in between those two examples with a capacity of ~17,000. And, of course, as you said, having fans in the crowd certainly isn't always a difference-maker. Heck, Cuse just beat MSU in DETROIT!

Sluggo
03-19-2018, 04:19 PM
Give coach K a week to prepare for a team and the injuries another week to heal and I really like our chances.

Nugget
03-19-2018, 04:29 PM
You would think Chicago, Indy, Detroit, Minneapolis, and cities in Ohio would get the Midwest regional more frequently than Kansas/Nebraska.

Kansas City isn't historically especially over-represented in regional assignments, as indicated in the list of regional sites below that goes back to 2000 and up to 2022. If anything, Southern California (Los Angeles/Anaheim have hosted or will host 11 of 22 years) is -- I'm guessing b/c of the ease of travel arrangements and availability of hotels, plus UCLA and maybe Arizona are really the only "local" teams who would obtain much of a crowd advantage).

For the Midwest, regional assignments have been: St. Louis (4), Indianapolis (4), San Antonio (sometimes Midwest, sometimes South, 5), Minneapolis (3), Chicago (3), Kansas City (2), Detroit (2), Cleveland (1), Omaha (1). So, it's not exactly been rigged in favor of Kansas.

For the other regions, assignments of note are:

East: Syracuse (5), Philly (3), D.C. (3), Boston (3), MSG (3), New Jersey (Meadowlands/Newark) (3).

South: Atlanta (5), Memphis (4), Houston (4).

West: Los Angeles/Anaheim (11), San Jose/Oakland/San Fran. (5), Phoenix (4).

Over those 22 years, only 1 regional in North Carolina, which is somewhat surprising actually,


Regional sites:

2000 Syracuse, Austin, Detroit, Albuquerque
2001 Philly, Atlanta, San Antonio, Anaheim
2002 Syracuse, Lexington, Madison, San Jose
2003 Albany, San Antonio, Minn, Anaheim
2004 Meadowlands, Atlanta, St. Louis, Phoenix
2005 Syracuse, Austin, Chicago, Albuquerque
2006 D.C., Atlanta, Minn, Oakland
2007 Meadowlands, San Antonio, St. Louis, San Jose
2008 Charlotte, Houston, Detroit, Phoenix
2009 Boston, Memphis, Indy, Phoenix
2010 Syracuse, Houston, St. Louis, Salt Lake City
2011 Newark, New Orleans, San Antonio, Anaheim
2012 Boston, Atlanta, St. Louis, Phoenix
2013 D.C., Dallas, Indy, Los Angeles
2014 MSG, Memphis, Indy, Anaheim
2015 Syracuse, Houston, Cleveland, Los Angeles
2016 Philly, Louisville, Chicago, Anaheim
2017 MSG, Memphis, KC, San Jose
2018 Boston, Atlanta, Omaha, Los Angeles
2019 D.C., Louisville, KC, Anaheim
2020 MSG, Houston, Indy, Los Angeles
2021 Brooklyn, Memphis, Minn, Denver
2022 Philly, San Antonio, Chicago, San Francisco

Troublemaker
03-19-2018, 04:54 PM
And I keep telling y'all, the homecourt advantage certainly didn't help against Oregon last year. Oregon had like 4 fans in the crowd (vs 19,000 Jayhawk fans), and we know how that turned out.


And, of course, as you said, having fans in the crowd certainly isn't always a difference-maker. Heck, Cuse just beat MSU in DETROIT!

Sometimes, having a major crowd advantage is a negative. It adds pressure. Kansas was supposed to beat Oregon, and there was pressure to finally convert an Elite 8 into another Final Four, which hasn't been a strength of Self's teams. MSU was supposed to beat Cuse and get past the Round of 32, unlike last season, and advance on the path to the Final Four while shoving it in the face of media critics who (from Sparty's perspective) have been unfair to the university and the program. There's a lot of pressure there.

Sigh... unfortunately, I can envision Duke as the opponent becoming an exception. A hypothetical Kansas-Duke matchup would have the #1 seed Jayhawks playing loose and angry that the #1 seed is the underdog to the #2 seed. The veteran Jayhawks would want to teach the hotshot freshmen a thing or two. That's why I'll be rooting for Clemson.

But, first things first. Syracuse.

mpj96
03-19-2018, 05:11 PM
Our game against Syracuse in Cameron was mostly under control, but we really didn't gain separation for good until we made our first three pointer (by Duval!) with over 7 minutes left in the game. I'm sure they were happy they limited us to 2-18 on three pointers on that night, but we kept their FTs to single digits with our zone and Bagley and Carter was more skilled size than they're used to seeing. Also, Grayson and Trevon kept their turnovers low and we managed to turn them over 17 times.

...I have to say I was very impressed by how focused Syracuse was against an opponent as talented as MSU, no matter how gruesome and limited it looked.

This resonates with me a lot more than the talk about what a great match up this is for Duke. To my recollection, Syracuse played us fairly close until about 10 minutes into the second half where we got a couple of dunks and Duval hit an unexpected 3.

We were in CAMERON for that game and they still pushed us until the end where we pulled away in a very fun second half of the second half. I just do not buy all the talk about this being an easy match up for Duke. Easy teams do not get to the S16 and Omaha is not CIS.

Boeheim may never catch K in all time wins, but he has a chance to make a big mark in this game. Syracuse is playing with house money and a shot to get revenge for an away loss to a conference foe they know and have experience playing. Duke thinks it got a break with MSU losing and it would be hard not to think ahead to Kansas since the game is being played 3 hrs or so from Lawrence and every other person there will be wearing some kind of rock chalk gear. To my eye that amounts to a dangerous game for Duke.

Having said that, my bracket is complete trash at this point. Hopefully my concern that this will be a tough game is simply further evidence that I should not be trusted to pick the outcome of any given matchup in the post season. :D

subzero02
03-19-2018, 05:13 PM
Kansas City isn't historically especially over-represented in regional assignments, as indicated in the list of regional sites below that goes back to 2000 and up to 2022. If anything, Southern California (Los Angeles/Anaheim have hosted or will host 11 of 22 years) is -- I'm guessing b/c of the ease of travel arrangements and availability of hotels, plus UCLA and maybe Arizona are really the only "local" teams who would obtain much of a crowd advantage).

For the Midwest, regional assignments have been: St. Louis (4), Indianapolis (4), San Antonio (sometimes Midwest, sometimes South, 5), Minneapolis (3), Chicago (3), Kansas City (2), Detroit (2), Cleveland (1), Omaha (1). So, it's not exactly been rigged in favor of Kansas.

For the other regions, assignments of note are:

East: Syracuse (5), Philly (3), D.C. (3), Boston (3), MSG (3), New Jersey (Meadowlands/Newark) (3).

South: Atlanta (5), Memphis (4), Houston (4).

West: Los Angeles/Anaheim (11), San Jose/Oakland/San Fran. (5), Phoenix (4).

Over those 22 years, only 1 regional in North Carolina, which is somewhat surprising actually,


Regional sites:

2000 Syracuse, Austin, Detroit, Albuquerque
2001 Philly, Atlanta, San Antonio, Anaheim
2002 Syracuse, Lexington, Madison, San Jose
2003 Albany, San Antonio, Minn, Anaheim
2004 Meadowlands, Atlanta, St. Louis, Phoenix
2005 Syracuse, Austin, Chicago, Albuquerque
2006 D.C., Atlanta, Minn, Oakland
2007 Meadowlands, San Antonio, St. Louis, San Jose
2008 Charlotte, Houston, Detroit, Phoenix
2009 Boston, Memphis, Indy, Phoenix
2010 Syracuse, Houston, St. Louis, Salt Lake City
2011 Newark, New Orleans, San Antonio, Anaheim
2012 Boston, Atlanta, St. Louis, Phoenix
2013 D.C., Dallas, Indy, Los Angeles
2014 MSG, Memphis, Indy, Anaheim
2015 Syracuse, Houston, Cleveland, Los Angeles
2016 Philly, Louisville, Chicago, Anaheim
2017 MSG, Memphis, KC, San Jose
2018 Boston, Atlanta, Omaha, Los Angeles
2019 D.C., Louisville, KC, Anaheim
2020 MSG, Houston, Indy, Los Angeles
2021 Brooklyn, Memphis, Minn, Denver
2022 Philly, San Antonio, Chicago, San Francisco

The information you provided actually covers 23 years worth of regional sites.

Nugget
03-19-2018, 05:25 PM
The information you provided actually covers 23 years worth of regional sites.

Yep - definitely a reason I wasn't a math major.

fisheyes
03-19-2018, 06:48 PM
The chief of cardiology at my hospital is a huge Syracuse fan.
I left this on his desk today...

8215

Troublemaker
03-19-2018, 07:01 PM
From the Dan Patrick Show:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGTLGgXci2A

subzero02
03-19-2018, 07:18 PM
The chief of cardiology at my hospital is a huge Syracuse fan.
I left this on his desk today...

8215

ODDS TO WIN 2018 NCAA MEN'S TOURNAMENT EAST REGIONAL (3/25/18)
Team Odds
Duke 5/7
Kansas 7/4
Clemson 8/1
Syracuse 20/1

put a copy of this on his desk tomorrow...

CDu
03-19-2018, 07:22 PM
ODDS TO WIN 2018 NCAA MEN'S TOURNAMENT EAST REGIONAL (3/25/18)
Team Odds
Duke 5/7
Kansas 7/4
Clemson 8/1
Syracuse 20/1

put a copy of this on his desk tomorrow...

I think those are awful odds for winning the East regional...

OldPhiKap
03-19-2018, 07:49 PM
I think those are awful odds for winning the East regional...

ďThe house always winsĒ

subzero02
03-19-2018, 08:31 PM
I think those are awful odds for winning the East regional...

Those are from vegasinsider... what odds would you propose?

CDu
03-19-2018, 08:34 PM
Those are from vegasinsider... what odds would you propose?

Proofread... ;)

DukeBlue666s
03-19-2018, 09:04 PM
Midwest, perhaps?

CDu
03-19-2018, 09:04 PM
Midwest, perhaps?

Ding ding ding...

Subzero, I will be happy to give you 200:1 odds on Duke winning the 2018 Men’s BBall East Regional. ;)

duke96
03-19-2018, 09:07 PM
Any recommendations for best steaks in Omaha?

OldPhiKap
03-19-2018, 09:12 PM
Any recommendations for best steaks in Omaha?

I think the whole city delivers them.

I just want to know if Omaha still mutually has a wild kingdom.

uh_no
03-19-2018, 09:23 PM
Any recommendations for best steaks in Omaha?

unsure, but i'd try the beef.

subzero02
03-19-2018, 09:53 PM
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/futures/

I just copied and pasted... missed the fact that they have 2 east regionals and no midwest


ODDS TO WIN 2018 NCAA MEN'S TOURNAMENT WEST REGIONAL (3/24/18)
Team Odds
Gonzaga 7/5
Michigan 17/10
Texas A&M 4/1
Florida State 15/2

ODDS TO WIN 2018 NCAA MEN'S TOURNAMENT SOUTH REGIONAL (3/24/18)
Team Odds
Kentucky 10/11
Nevada 7/2
Kansas State 4/1
Loyola-Chicago 6/1

ODDS TO WIN 2018 NCAA MEN'S TOURNAMENT EAST REGIONAL (3/25/18)
Team Odds
Duke 5/7
Kansas 7/4
Clemson 8/1
Syracuse 20/1

ODDS TO WIN 2018 NCAA MEN'S TOURNAMENT EAST REGIONAL (3/25/18)
Team Odds
Villanova 5/8
Purdue 17/4
West Virginia 21/4
Texas Tech 7/1

BandAlum83
03-19-2018, 10:23 PM
Those are from vegasinsider... what odds would you propose?

I'd put our odds of winning the EAST regional are about 0%

kako
03-20-2018, 12:58 AM
On the one hand, Duke is playing great. If it hits on all cylinders, the team can beat anybody. There's no data-driven reason to think that the Cuse has a serious advantage leading to a win.

On the other hand, Syracuse has shown the ability to play above itself. They are doing it this year as the so-called experts questioned them being in the tourney, and here they are in the S16. Same thing happened in 2016, and they went to the FF. They were a 4-seed in 2013 and went to the FF. I think this is an intangible based on coaching that cannot be discounted.

Also, Duke will now play against a zone. Sure, they play against it in practice, but the starters are playing against backups. Now Duke will be playing Syracuse starters, and Boeheim does have more experience coaching zone than K. Yes, Duke spanked them in Cameron this year. But that's only one game. This is another.

Finally, there's another intangible with the familiarity thing regarding in-conference matchups in the tourney. Valvano's Pack beat Sampson's UVA team in the '83 E8. Nova beat Gtown in the title game in '85. KU beat Oklahoma in the '87 title game. They won when it mattered. Unlike many teams around the country, the Orange will not be phased at all seeing Duke on their opponent's jerseys. They probably welcome it, and welcome the chance for revenge for their loss this year.

I still have confidence Duke will win, but these things do make me pause for a bit. Throw in the obligatory "UMBC anything can happen" reference, and I'm starting to recite my mantra, "I trust in K, I trust in K, I trust in K."

But no matter what happens, Duke is playing. UNC is not. Winning!

9F

Dukebasketball2020
03-20-2018, 06:27 AM
I'm not worried about Cuse at all, they really don't have a bench look at 2 of their 3 tourney games they played two guys off the bench a combined 16 minutes on average. They don't have any PG on their team or play one for that matter. Howard and Battle are their two guards and both are shooting guards. Their offense isn't good and they struggle to score. Michigan State had open shots against their zone they just couldn't hit and Carter in the middle isn't a good option for MSU, they should have put someone who can hit a shot. Also Cuse struggles a majority of the time from the FT line. I think if you get some of their bigs in foul trouble it can be a long night for them. Plus in the first game Duke hit 1 (3) if we hit 4-5 which I don't see why we can't I think we will win this game by 20 or more.

MarkD83
03-20-2018, 06:33 AM
This resonates with me a lot more than the talk about what a great match up this is for Duke. To my recollection, Syracuse played us fairly close until about 10 minutes into the second half where we got a couple of dunks and Duval hit an unexpected 3.

We were in CAMERON for that game and they still pushed us until the end where we pulled away in a very fun second half of the second half. I just do not buy all the talk about this being an easy match up for Duke. Easy teams do not get to the S16 and Omaha is not CIS.

Boeheim may never catch K in all time wins, but he has a chance to make a big mark in this game. Syracuse is playing with house money and a shot to get revenge for an away loss to a conference foe they know and have experience playing. Duke thinks it got a break with MSU losing and it would be hard not to think ahead to Kansas since the game is being played 3 hrs or so from Lawrence and every other person there will be wearing some kind of rock chalk gear. To my eye that amounts to a dangerous game for Duke.

Having said that, my bracket is complete trash at this point. Hopefully my concern that this will be a tough game is simply further evidence that I should not be trusted to pick the outcome of any given matchup in the post season. :D

I agree Duke needs to be careful with this game. I looked back at the Duke-Syr game in Cameron and Syracuse missed their first 15 3 ptrs; Duke scored only 4 pts in the first 7 minutes of the second half and Syracuse was within 7-8 points before the Duval 3. Duke let Syracuse dictate the pace which is what MSU did in their loss.

On the flip side Carter, Bagley and Bolden had great games in the paint. Let's just hope that Gary, Grayson and Trevon are hitting some outside shots early.

Troublemaker
03-20-2018, 10:00 AM
This is going to be an interesting game for Coach K. Duval is spectacular, but I think he may be held in check (okay, be ineffective) against the Cuse zone.

In 25 minutes against Cuse, Duval had 3 points (going 1-8, including 1-5), 3 assists, and 2 turnovers. The zone is really unfriendly to Duval; he can't penetrate it and the Cuse length is great at creating turnovers. Also, if he's open on the 3 (and you better believe he will be), he needs to capitalize on that.

I'm curious how Coach K is going to manage this one. I've always said Duval is key to our success; I just have no idea how he's gonna fair against the Cuse zone.

Good points. I'd still like to see Duke try Trevon at the free throw line area, a la Theo Pinson. Now, it might go horribly, and then you adjust accordingly. But if Trevon can make some plays (floaters, passes out to three-point shooters, passes/dumpoffs to the baseline big) from that area, then he's playable against Cuse. Trevon's of course a key to our zone on the other end of the floor, and it'd be nice to be able to keep him in the game.

CDu
03-20-2018, 10:35 AM
Good points. I'd still like to see Duke try Trevon at the free throw line area, a la Theo Pinson. Now, it might go horribly, and then you adjust accordingly. But if Trevon can make some plays (floaters, passes out to three-point shooters, passes/dumpoffs to the baseline big) from that area, then he's playable against Cuse. Trevon's of course a key to our zone on the other end of the floor, and it'd be nice to be able to keep him in the game.

I'd love to have Duval be the guy catching the ball at the FT line. But the challenge with getting Duval into the FT line role is that it then may require a pass from Trent. Trent is, by my estimation, the worst perimeter passer on the team. He has the most struggles with entry passes of anyone, and usually he just balks at throwing it now, and either shoots, drives, or passes back around the perimeter. If they can make it work with the ball coming from Allen to Duval at the FT line, that'd be great. But that is probably the only way it will work.

Alternatively, Carter and Bagley are both pretty good options in the FT line area. Either can hit that shot, and both are good at attacking the glass on their misses. And using either of those guys in the FT line role allows our two better passers to be passing options on the perimeter.

BluDvlsN1
03-20-2018, 10:52 AM
Alternatively, Carter and Bagley are both pretty good options in the FT line area. Either can hit that shot, and both are good at attacking the glass on their misses. And using either of those guys in the FT line role allows our two better passers to be passing options on the perimeter.


Great observation, I've thought for some time we should try a high low post, the twin tower
concept manyNBA teams used very effectively. The Celtics won 3 Titles I believe with Parish & McHale
in the high low.
It Makes that entry pass much easier at the top, and Carter and Bagley III both can square up
in triple threat position.

I'm sure Coach K and staff have considered it, It would be interesting to hear their thoughts.

godins
03-20-2018, 11:15 AM
Good points. I'd still like to see Duke try Trevon at the free throw line area, a la Theo Pinson. Now, it might go horribly, and then you adjust accordingly. But if Trevon can make some plays (floaters, passes out to three-point shooters, passes/dumpoffs to the baseline big) from that area, then he's playable against Cuse. Trevon's of course a key to our zone on the other end of the floor, and it'd be nice to be able to keep him in the game.

Eeesh, I'd be really nervous trying this strategy. With a two-big lineup (Bagley and Carter) the spacing gets icky quickly with Duval at the FT line. Where do you put the second big? This strategy would decrease our offensive rebounding advantage and shift everyone out of their normal position (with the exception of Grayson who I suspect would make the entry pass to Duval at the FT line (Not Trent)). Marvin and Wendell have hit a high percentage from 3PT on few attempts. But they shoot the majority of their 3s in rhythm and wide open which is precisely what the Syracuse zone disrupts.

I maintain that having Wendell at the FT line is our best option. K says he's one of the smartest players he's ever coached and we've seen it in action. He can run ball screen actions with Duval at the top of the zone, hit the midrange and FT line jumper, play the high-low with Bagley, and pass out to shooters. He's a menace rolling to the basket for offensive rebounding opportunities. Wendell is this year's Justise Winslow, not Bagley. His versatility is what helps us break down this zone and roll to the Elite 8.

UrinalCake
03-20-2018, 12:02 PM
Agree that one of the bigs needs to be the guy at the free throw line. If itís a guard then the defense can all collapse inside the paint and thereís no room to operate. Thatís basically what VT did when they beat us, even though it wasnít technically a zone. And I donít have a lot of trust in Duval hitting that shot even though heís been shooting well this tournament. Put Wendell in that position and let him shoot or pass. I think we should even have some designed plays where we pass to the middle and have him use a touch pass to immediately kick out to a shooter while the defense is turned around. UNC did this very effectively against Cuse in the ACCT.

Getting their big dude in foul trouble will be huge too. They basically have one interior presence, heís a really good shot blocker but very foul prone. Get him off the floor and they really, REALLY have no answer for our bigs.

Bluedog
03-20-2018, 12:15 PM
Carter should be the #1 zone buster and it's not even close in my opinion. He can reliably hit that jumper and is a big body to get the ball to in the gap.

(So, yes, agreeing with posters above).

flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2018, 12:17 PM
They give Cuse no chance. Also, Carter is so key to this game. Bieheim gotta figure out how to stop him: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/03/20/coach-k-knows-what-duke-needs-to-do-to-beat-syracuses-2-3-zone-defense/?utm_term=.804d6c1af0fe

MChambers
03-20-2018, 12:26 PM
They give Cuse no chance. Also, Carter is so key to this game. Bieheim gotta figure out how to stop him: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/03/20/coach-k-knows-what-duke-needs-to-do-to-beat-syracuses-2-3-zone-defense/?utm_term=.804d6c1af0fe

I like the bottom line in this article, but I'm familiar with Neil Greenberg's work in the Post, and I'm not a fan.

Troublemaker
03-20-2018, 02:29 PM
I'd love to have Duval be the guy catching the ball at the FT line. But the challenge with getting Duval into the FT line role is that it then may require a pass from Trent. Trent is, by my estimation, the worst perimeter passer on the team. He has the most struggles with entry passes of anyone, and usually he just balks at throwing it now, and either shoots, drives, or passes back around the perimeter. If they can make it work with the ball coming from Allen to Duval at the FT line, that'd be great. But that is probably the only way it will work.

Alternatively, Carter and Bagley are both pretty good options in the FT line area. Either can hit that shot, and both are good at attacking the glass on their misses. And using either of those guys in the FT line role allows our two better passers to be passing options on the perimeter.

Yeah, it's also unusual to have your point guard work that area. Usually you want a bigger target, but with Trevon's wingspan and leaping ability, my hope would be that he has a much better catch radius than most guards from that area.


Great observation, I've thought for some time we should try a high low post, the twin tower
concept manyNBA teams used very effectively. The Celtics won 3 Titles I believe with Parish & McHale
in the high low.
It Makes that entry pass much easier at the top, and Carter and Bagley III both can square up
in triple threat position.

I'm sure Coach K and staff have considered it, It would be interesting to hear their thoughts.

We've been throwing high-low passes all season. Results have been mixed.


Eeesh, I'd be really nervous trying this strategy. With a two-big lineup (Bagley and Carter) the spacing gets icky quickly with Duval at the FT line. Where do you put the second big? This strategy would decrease our offensive rebounding advantage and shift everyone out of their normal position (with the exception of Grayson who I suspect would make the entry pass to Duval at the FT line (Not Trent)). Marvin and Wendell have hit a high percentage from 3PT on few attempts. But they shoot the majority of their 3s in rhythm and wide open which is precisely what the Syracuse zone disrupts.

I maintain that having Wendell at the FT line is our best option. K says he's one of the smartest players he's ever coached and we've seen it in action. He can run ball screen actions with Duval at the top of the zone, hit the midrange and FT line jumper, play the high-low with Bagley, and pass out to shooters. He's a menace rolling to the basket for offensive rebounding opportunities. Wendell is this year's Justise Winslow, not Bagley. His versatility is what helps us break down this zone and roll to the Elite 8.

I'm okay with Wendell and I voted for him in the poll I did about this subject a couple weeks back. BUT, I'd like to see Duval explored there, as we only scored 0.93 ppp for the previous game against Cuse in Cameron when Wendell was the main guy at the FT line. (Not blaming him, as we just don't have great zone offense personnel.) With Trevon in there, you have the potential to have a drive threat. Pinson can't shoot but he was a good operator from there because he could drive, pass, and hit floaters. I'm hoping Trevon could do something like that, but if it doesn't work, we could default back to Wendell.

Spacing's going to be an issue no matter where you put Trevon, but yes, if he were in the middle, I would kick one of the bigs out to the corner.


Agree that one of the bigs needs to be the guy at the free throw line. If it’s a guard then the defense can all collapse inside the paint and there’s no room to operate. That’s basically what VT did when they beat us, even though it wasn’t technically a zone. And I don’t have a lot of trust in Duval hitting that shot even though he’s been shooting well this tournament. Put Wendell in that position and let him shoot or pass. I think we should even have some designed plays where we pass to the middle and have him use a touch pass to immediately kick out to a shooter while the defense is turned around. UNC did this very effectively against Cuse in the ACCT.

Getting their big dude in foul trouble will be huge too. They basically have one interior presence, he’s a really good shot blocker but very foul prone. Get him off the floor and they really, REALLY have no answer for our bigs.

Me neither. I would never want Trevon shooting the FT line jumper. If anyone's read my posts this season, you know I don't respect shooting the FT line jumper as a great option against zone. Very few players can hit that shot all that well. You get the ball to that area so you can (a) hit the slot man (b) drive or (c) pass back out to an open 3-pt shooter, imo.

As for Syracuse's bigs, I think their backup center Sidibe isn't bad and is still a rim protector when Chukwu is out. In fact, Boheim opted to play Sidibe over Chukwu in the second half against MSU.

sammy3469
03-20-2018, 02:47 PM
Me neither. I would never want Trevon shooting the FT line jumper. If anyone's read my posts this season, you know I don't respect shooting the FT line jumper as a great option against zone. Very few players can hit that shot all that well. You get the ball to that area so you can (a) hit the slot man (b) drive or (c) pass back out to an open 3-pt shooter, imo.

As for Syracuse's bigs, I think their backup center Sidibe isn't bad and is still a rim protector when Chukwu is out. In fact, Boheim opted to play Sidibe over Chukwu in the second half against MSU.

FWIW, I think the bigger point should be forcing Dolezaj into making tough choices on the right wing. He doesn't block shots nor is he a good rebounder while Brissett is much better at both with the ability to close out on the three point shot. That presumably would mean Bagley shows at the FT line since he's a lefty which would then force Dolezaj to shade into the lane. If Carter can then shield Brissett on the weakside, then you've essentially set up a 2v2 with Bagley and Allen/Trent attacking Dolezaj and the center.

moonpie23
03-20-2018, 08:30 PM
I'm not worried about Cuse at all,

said sparty....

Bluedog
03-20-2018, 08:53 PM
As for Syracuse's bigs, I think their backup center Sidibe isn't bad and is still a rim protector when Chukwu is out. In fact, Boheim opted to play Sidibe over Chukwu in the second half against MSU.


That was only because Chukwu picked up his forth foul with 14 minutes to go... Otherwise, he would have stayed in. I have noticed that K and Boeheim both keep players in longer with foul trouble than most coaches though. They seem to subscribe to the same philosophy in that regard.

CoachJ10
03-20-2018, 09:23 PM
Differences for this yearís Duke team with respect to facing the Syracuse zone...is that they have been practicing the zone all year, and are far more familiar with it than Duke teams of the past.

I think that is a rather unique advantage this Duke team has compared to other teams that face Syracuse.

Troublemaker
03-20-2018, 09:38 PM
That was only because Chukwu picked up his forth foul with 14 minutes to go... Otherwise, he would have stayed in. I have noticed that K and Boeheim both keep players in longer with foul trouble than most coaches though. They seem to subscribe to the same philosophy in that regard.

Right, but Chukwu didn't check back in until there was 8 seconds left in the game (http://www.msuspartans.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2017-2018/031818.html). That's Boeheim liking what he saw from Sidibe and opting to play him over Chukwu.

Sidibe's a good player who's just battled injuries this year. When he's feeling good, he's a solid backup center for them. (http://www.syracuse.com/orangebasketball/index.ssf/2018/01/syracuse_basketball_center_bourama_sidibe_is_spect acular_in_win_over_pittsburgh.html)

jv001
03-21-2018, 09:09 AM
I know Vegas and other odd makers like Duke 10+ or so but I am a little worried about this game. Syracuse is tall and long with pretty good athletes who play the 2-3 zone very well. They make the other team's offense struggle to get good shots. My fear is that they defend our low post guys and make us beat them from the 3 point line. I know we've shot the 3 pretty well in the tournament so far and Grayson and Gary are good shooters from 3, but they have struggled at times this season. I hope I'm off base on this and we light them up from 3.
As for who is the man at the FT line for Duke, I go with Carter. I first thought of Gary because he's got that mid-range/floater shot that he's good at, but I don't trust him passing the ball. Hate this waiting around for the game. GoDuke!

Avvocato
03-21-2018, 09:31 AM
I don't think we want a guard at the FT line. You want your shooters on the perimeter of the zone. Plus, then we'll have an extra big either clogging the lane or hanging outside. I think we may also see more of an Allen-Trent-AOC combination on the outside if we are struggling shooting the ball. As a side note, although Duvall's shooting numbers weren't great on Saturday, I thought he took good shots for the most part and they just rimmed out on him. I hope he stays confident in his shot. His performance is a big key to our success. Friday night can't come soon enough. Let's go Duke.

English
03-21-2018, 11:03 AM
I know Vegas and other odd makers like Duke 10+ or so but I am a little worried about this game. Syracuse is tall and long with pretty good athletes who play the 2-3 zone very well. They make the other team's offense struggle to get good shots. My fear is that they defend our low post guys and make us beat them from the 3 point line. I know we've shot the 3 pretty well in the tournament so far and Grayson and Gary are good shooters from 3, but they have struggled at times this season. I hope I'm off base on this and we light them up from 3.
As for who is the man at the FT line for Duke, I go with Carter. I first thought of Gary because he's got that mid-range/floater shot that he's good at, but I don't trust him passing the ball. Hate this waiting around for the game. GoDuke!

You mean, like, when Duke shot 2-for-18 from 3pt against Syracuse earlier this season? And instead settled for 13 dunks, and only two made shots outside the paint? That turned out pretty well for Duke, although, I'd certainly like to see better perimeter shooting this time around. Of course, a 16-point win would likely satisfy most around here.

Completely agree Wendell seems the most appropriate to sit in that FT-line zone and do work. His high-low game has been a boon for us in the past few games, and K's certain to be hammering it all week.

ETA: At this point in the season, we should all be spelling our players' names correctly. It's Trevon Duval. There is one 'L' in his last name. /rant

Rich
03-21-2018, 11:55 AM
You mean, like, when Duke shot 2-for-18 from 3pt against Syracuse earlier this season? And instead settled for 13 dunks, and only two made shots outside the paint? That turned out pretty well for Duke, although, I'd certainly like to see better perimeter shooting this time around. Of course, a 16-point win would likely satisfy most around here.

Completely agree Wendell seems the most appropriate to sit in that FT-line zone and do work. His high-low game has been a boon for us in the past few games, and K's certain to be hammering it all week.

ETA: At this point in the season, we should all be spelling our players' names correctly. It's Trevon Duval. There is one 'L' in his last name. /rant

If I recall correctly, that game was still within reach with about 6 minutes to go. If we're ahead in this one, I hope it's by a much wider margin. The Orange game plan will be to stick around the way they did with MSU and put game pressure on the higher ranked team.

godins
03-21-2018, 12:25 PM
Coach K held a press conference yesterday with some good nuggets about the Duke-Cuse matchup, switching to zone, coaching one-and-dones. Sounds like they'll be flying out this afternoon for the Omaha regional after practicing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izs71we52F4 (25 minutes).

uh_no
03-21-2018, 12:28 PM
Coach K held a press conference yesterday with some good nuggets about the Duke-Cuse matchup, switching to zone, coaching one-and-dones. Sounds like they'll be flying out this afternoon for the Omaha regional after practicing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izs71we52F4 (25 minutes).

hopefully the snowpocalypse this morning doesn't keep them grounded /s

English
03-21-2018, 01:37 PM
If I recall correctly, that game was still within reach with about 6 minutes to go. If we're ahead in this one, I hope it's by a much wider margin. The Orange game plan will be to stick around the way they did with MSU and put game pressure on the higher ranked team.

This has been a common narrative, and I suppose it's true in the sense that a 8-9-10pt lead is within reach, but that would've required Syracuse to completely change the way they were playing from utterly inept offensively to better than average (all assuming Duke remained well below its average). Watching that game, there wasn't much time, if any, in the second half that the blood pressure rose above normal. I recall thinking during and after the game that it was a thorough, sound beating.

Tripping William
03-21-2018, 02:28 PM
This has been a common narrative, and I suppose it's true in the sense that a 8-9-10pt lead is within reach, but that would've required Syracuse to completely change the way they were playing from utterly inept offensively to better than average (all assuming Duke remained well below its average). Watching that game, there wasn't much time, if any, in the second half that the blood pressure rose above normal. I recall thinking during and after the game that it was a thorough, sound beating.

+1. Syracuse was not within single-digits for the final 8:40 of that game, and the closest they ever got in the second half was 7 points, in a game that was, shall we say, "offensively sub-optimal" (for both teams). Of course, it was a home game.

Saratoga2
03-21-2018, 03:34 PM
You mean, like, when Duke shot 2-for-18 from 3pt against Syracuse earlier this season? And instead settled for 13 dunks, and only two made shots outside the paint? That turned out pretty well for Duke, although, I'd certainly like to see better perimeter shooting this time around. Of course, a 16-point win would likely satisfy most around here.

Completely agree Wendell seems the most appropriate to sit in that FT-line zone and do work. His high-low game has been a boon for us in the past few games, and K's certain to be hammering it all week.

ETA: At this point in the season, we should all be spelling our players' names correctly. It's Trevon Duval. There is one 'L' in his last name. /rant

I would estimate Syracuse's chance of winning the game is in the 15% range (not zero). Their best chance is to contest all the 3 point shooters and go hard on the defensive boards. Try to limit Duke to one shot from inside while not trying to push the ball up the floor themselves. That would slow the pace and limit the total number of possessions such that anything could happen. There is virtually no way they can get into a fast paced game with Duke and expect to win. I am expecting a Duke win and hope that it can be obtained without injuries to any of our players.

jv001
03-21-2018, 08:17 PM
You mean, like, when Duke shot 2-for-18 from 3pt against Syracuse earlier this season? And instead settled for 13 dunks, and only two made shots outside the paint? That turned out pretty well for Duke, although, I'd certainly like to see better perimeter shooting this time around. Of course, a 16-point win would likely satisfy most around here.

Completely agree Wendell seems the most appropriate to sit in that FT-line zone and do work. His high-low game has been a boon for us in the past few games, and K's certain to be hammering it all week.

ETA: At this point in the season, we should all be spelling our players' names correctly. It's Trevon Duval. There is one 'L' in his last name. /rant

I don't remember spelling Trevon's last name with two Ls but I may have. Not intentional because I know how it's spelled. GoDuke!

Furniture
03-21-2018, 10:36 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/976656641084084225/video/1

Love it.....

Furniture
03-21-2018, 10:49 PM
Coach K held a press conference yesterday with some good nuggets about the Duke-Cuse matchup, switching to zone, coaching one-and-dones. Sounds like they'll be flying out this afternoon for the Omaha regional after practicing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izs71we52F4 (25 minutes).

@9mins 20s into the presser I almost expected Coach to say.....Yum beer!

subzero02
03-21-2018, 11:49 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/976656641084084225/video/1

Love it....

Wow...I really hope that video becomes iconic

elvis14
03-22-2018, 07:41 AM
https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/976656641084084225/video/1

Love it...

What a great response from Harry. Made me smile.

left_hook_lacey
03-22-2018, 08:05 AM
Is this the easiest path we've ever had to the elite eight? Iona, Rhode Island, and now we're -11.5 point favorite against a familiar foe that we've already dismantled this year.

Dan Hurley was quoted as saying we look like we have five first round draft picks on the floor. I like our chances to bring it home.

This is our year......again.

OldPhiKap
03-22-2018, 08:09 AM
Is this the easiest path we've ever had to the elite eight?

I'll tell you on Saturday.

I don't care what Vegas says, we are going against a great coach and a dangerous team. We are rightly favored before the game, but we still start it 0-0.

ndkjr70
03-22-2018, 08:09 AM
Is this the easiest path we've ever had to the elite eight? Iona, Rhode Island, and now we're -11.5 point favorite against a familiar foe that we've already dismantled this year.

Dan Hurley was quoted as saying we look like we have five first round draft picks on the floor. I like our chances to bring it home.

This is our year...again.

It's certainly better than it could have been -- going through Trae Young (who was on a worse team than URI, no doubt, but the type of player that can singlehandedly beat any opponent in the country on a good night) and then going through Michigan State would have been significantly more difficult than URI/Syracuse. Still have to play the games. (And root for Clemson, because I don't want to go through Kansas to get to the Final Four)

Troublemaker
03-22-2018, 08:38 AM
I'll tell you on Saturday.

I don't care what Vegas says, we are going against a great coach and a dangerous team. We are rightly favored before the game, but we still start it 0-0.

Yep, and it should be said that Cuse is really only a great matchup for us on one side of the ball. It'd be different if this were a typical Duke team with shooters galore and an NBA small forward to work the free throw line area. But we don't have those things this year, so let's see if our offense can produce more points against Cuse's zone than we did last outing. The path to victory for Cuse is the same as how they beat MSU. Play a close game in the 50s or 60s and hope to steal it at the end.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-22-2018, 09:45 AM
The path to victory for Cuse is the same as how they beat MSU. Play a close game in the 50s or 60s and hope to steal it at the end.

That's easier said than done, I would suggest. If we are careful with the ball, I don't see us scoring under 30 a half.

gam7
03-22-2018, 09:57 AM
Syracuse beat Michigan State because of FTs (and defense). Syracuse's FT rate (FTA/FGA) against MSU was 74 %, their second highest rate in a game this year.

Duke is #1 in the country in FT rate defense at 22%. Duke has not allowed a FT rate of more than 45% in any game this season.

Draw your own conclusions.

Kedsy
03-22-2018, 11:36 AM
Is this the easiest path we've ever had to the elite eight?

No, it's not. One of the things that's rarely talked about is how lucky we've gotten in our Final Four runs, especially in the 80s and 90s:

Our path this year has been 15-7-11 (total of 33). We've had five other runs as easy (or easier) to the Elite Eight:

1999: 16-9-12 (37)
1986: 16-8-12 (36)
1988: 15-7-11 (33)
1989: 15-7-11 (33)
1991: 15-7-11 (33)

If we're fortunate enough to beat Syracuse, our path to the Final Four will either be 34 (Kansas) or 38 (Clemson). If it's Clemson, it would be third "easiest"; if it's Kansas it would be in a three-way tie for 6th easiest:

1999: 16-9-12-6 (43)
1986: 16-8-12-7 (43)
1991: 15-7-11-4 (37)
2004: 16-8-5-7 (36)
2001: 16-9-4-6 (35)
1988: 15-7-11-1 (34)
1989: 15-7-11-1 (34)

RepoMan
03-22-2018, 11:53 AM
No, it's not. One of the things that's rarely talked about is how lucky we've gotten in our Final Four runs, especially in the 80s and 90s:

Our path this year has been 15-7-11 (total of 33). We've had five other runs as easy (or easier) to the Elite Eight:

1999: 16-9-12 (37)


Thanks for the trip down memory lane! It didn't end the way we wanted, but I just pulled up the schedule for the 1998-99 season. The complete dominance that I recall is proven with the game scores. That year was nuts!

kAzE
03-22-2018, 01:25 PM
Live Stream of the Omaha pod press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IOvGlf34uI

I believe Coach K and the Duke players are about to speak shortly

camion
03-22-2018, 01:36 PM
I had thought this would be a relatively easy game. My worry is that the players will think the same thing.

Any time you think it's going to be easy... It isn't. :eek:

Linky. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-aKYVb8QQ0)

ice-9
03-22-2018, 02:55 PM
I remember last year most of us thought South Carolina was going to be relatively easy...nope.

English
03-22-2018, 02:59 PM
I recall many people thought Iona & URI would be easy wins, too. Does that mean anything? How can we reconcile all these past games?! When something means something else, but the other thing means this contradictory thing? WE MUST HAVE ANSWERS!

uh_no
03-22-2018, 03:16 PM
I remember last year most of us thought South Carolina was going to be relatively easy...nope.

people have short memories. we won the ACC and suddenly a season's worth of mediocre play was ignored.

ns7
03-22-2018, 03:33 PM
I can't remember which thread the Boeheim - Izzo discussion was in so posting this here.

Boeheim has passed Izzo as the coach with most wins above ELO projection according to 538:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jim-boeheim-is-the-new-king-of-march-madness/

kAzE
03-22-2018, 03:34 PM
people have short memories. we won the ACC and suddenly a season's worth of mediocre play was ignored.

I mean . . . that's an unfair characterization of last year's team, though. We really were playing at an extremely high level at the end of the season. The ACC tournament was no fluke. Any team with a ton of freshmen playing big minutes, no matter how talented, will have ups and downs in the regular season. I said it at the beginning of this season, too: we're crazy young. Expect head-scratching losses (and for that matter, expect more of the same next season). For a more extreme example, just look at UK's team this year.

Plus, we were dealt a pretty bad hand with the injuries to Giles, Bolden, and Tatum, which slowed us coming out of the gate, and Giles never fully regained his high school form.

The South Carolina game was an unfortunate set of circumstances (playing against a final 4 team in their backyard, with a building full of UNC fans, and very biased officiating) that led our early exit, but that was still a very good team capable of winning it all.

Mediocre play in the regular season is the tax for playing with this many freshmen in your rotation. But who cares about the regular season? We play for March. GO DUKE.

uh_no
03-22-2018, 03:43 PM
I mean . . . that's an unfair characterization of last year's team, though. We were playing at an extremely high level at the end of the season. The ACC tournament was no fluke. Any team with a ton of freshmen playing big minutes, no matter how talented, will have ups and downs in the regular season. Just look at UK's team this year. Plus, we were dealt a pretty bad hand with the injuries to Giles, Bolden, and Tatum, which slowed us coming out of the gate, and Giles never fully regained his high school form.

The South Carolina game was an unfortunate set of circumstances that led our early exit, but that was still a very good team capable of winning it all.

As you say, a team like that will have it's ups and downs. we had a good two good games in a row against UL and UNC. That was an up. we had lost 3 of four to end the regular season. That's a down. Down enough that it's not "extremely high level," and certainly not enough that anyone should have expected a game against a top-25 opponent to be an "easy" game. Heck, we'd already been through an up before that. We beat UNC at home and UVA away in the course of a week...and then proceeded to lose to middling syracuse and miami back to back.

So then the next time we have a couple good games, suddenly we're world beaters? That's just silly sauce. There's a reason the team entered the tournament outside the top 10 in computer rankings. It's because a couple game stretch of good play does not offset a season of mediocre results.

Anyone who thought that game was going to be easy, or thought Duke ought to have been a favorite for the title was kidding themselves.


Mediocre play in the regular season is the tax for playing with this many freshmen in your rotation. But who cares about the regular season? We play for March. GO DUKE.

While that may be true, it turns out how one has played is generally a really good predictor for how one WILL play. Using my favorite schtick lately:

Going into the tournament, that duke team was one of two teams:
1) a team that had actually figured it out in the ACC tournament
2) a team that had been inconsistent all year long having played a couple decent games

Clearly, in hindsight, the team probably belonged in the second category. But even before the tournament, there was simply not enough evidence to say the team was clearly (1) instead of (2). But people take one or two games of good play and declare (1)!!! and then are shocked when the team loses a couple games later. THAT's what I mean about people having short memories.

CDu
03-22-2018, 03:54 PM
As you say, a team like that will have it's ups and downs. we had a good two good games in a row against UL and UNC. That was an up. we had lost 3 of four to end the regular season. That's a down. Down enough that it's not "extremely high level," and certainly not enough that anyone should have expected a game against a top-25 opponent to be an "easy" game. Heck, we'd already been through an up before that. We beat UNC at home and UVA away in the course of a week...and then proceeded to lose to middling syracuse and miami back to back.

So then the next time we have a couple good games, suddenly we're world beaters? That's just silly sauce. There's a reason the team entered the tournament outside the top 10 in computer rankings. It's because a couple game stretch of good play does not offset a season of mediocre results.

Anyone who thought that game was going to be easy, or thought Duke ought to have been a favorite for the title was kidding themselves.

First, we were right around top-10 prior to the tournament. If you think that is mediocre, or donít think that is a title contending position, you are kidding yourself.

Second, one of those losses was on the road, another was without Allen. The other was on the road to the eventual tourney champ.

Aside from that? They beat four top-20 teams, three of those on a neutral site.

kAzE
03-22-2018, 03:55 PM
While that may be true, it turns out how one has played is generally a really good predictor for how one WILL play. Using my favorite schtick lately:

Going into the tournament, that duke team was one of two teams:
1) a team that had actually figured it out in the ACC tournament
2) a team that had been inconsistent all year long having played a couple decent games

Clearly, in hindsight, the team probably belonged in the second category. But even before the tournament, there was simply not enough evidence to say the team was clearly (1) instead of (2). But people take one or two games of good play and declare (1)!!! and then are shocked when the team loses a couple games later. THAT's what I mean about people having short memories.

Just curious, how does your formula work for UVA's loss to UMBC? UVA dominated the regular season, losing only twice all year. UMBC lost by 44 to Albany. It just doesn't work like that. In no way did anything that happened in the regular season predict the outcome of that game. The NCAA tournament is by nature unpredictable. If someone had figured out a perfect formula by now, we'd have perfect brackets every year.

We lost by 7 to an EXCELLENT team in basically a true road game. We had a final four caliber team. We had Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, and Jayson Tatum, all at full health. We had a legitimate case for a #1 seed. Personally, I'd still lean much more towards your #1 than #2.

Troublemaker
03-22-2018, 03:57 PM
I mean . . . that's an unfair characterization of last year's team, though. We really were playing at an extremely high level at the end of the season. The ACC tournament was no fluke.

We were down double-digits in the second half to both Louisville and UNC before coming back, and we were down eight in the second half to Notre Dame in the championship game at the under 12 timeout.

I'm thrilled that we won the ACC championship last season but our success (relying on huge comebacks) was not sustainable. I disagree that Duke was playing "at an extremely high level" entering the tournament.

CDu
03-22-2018, 04:01 PM
We were down double-digits in the second half to both Louisville and UNC before coming back, and we were down eight in the second half to Notre Dame in the championship game at the under 12 timeout.

I'm thrilled that we won the ACC championship last season but our success (relying on huge comebacks) was not sustainable. I disagree that Duke was playing "at an extremely high level" entering the tournament.

Games are 40 minutes long. We outplayed 4 top-20 teams, 3 on neutral sites, in the two weeks prior to the tourney. And despite dealing with a bunch of injuries to key players (who were healthy by tourney time), we were a borderline top-10 team overall.

kAzE
03-22-2018, 04:05 PM
We were down double-digits in the second half to both Louisville and UNC before coming back, and we were down eight in the second half to Notre Dame in the championship game at the under 12 timeout.

I'm thrilled that we won the ACC championship last season but our success (relying on huge comebacks) was not sustainable. I disagree that Duke was playing "at an extremely high level" entering the tournament.

I agree with CDu . . . those were 3 very good teams last year, all with extremely good coaches. And don't forget that we also played 1 more game than all 3 of those teams in consecutive days. Every opponent we faced in the ACCT (except in our first game) was playing on more rest. Our team had heart.

uh_no
03-22-2018, 04:09 PM
First, we were right around top-10 prior to the tournament. If you think that is mediocre, or donít think that is a title contending position, you are kidding yourself.

kp gave duke a 3.2% chance to win the title. There's a reason for that.




Aside from that? They beat four top-20 teams, three of those on a neutral site. They also lost to an 8 seed and an NIT team a week and a half before....you can't simply count the wins and then ignore the losses.


Just curious, how does your formula work for UVA's loss to UMBC? It doesn't. In way did anything that happened in the regular season predict the outcome of that game. The NCAA tournament is by nature unpredictable.

It's unlikely to roll snakeyes. It doesn't become likely just because it happens on your first try. There is nothing to "explain" about tails in the distribution. they'll, technically, "almost surely" occur if given enough trials.



We lost by 7 to an EXCELLENT team in basically a true road game. We had a final four caliber team. Yes. i think final 4 was probably about the ceiling.



We had Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, and Jayson Tatum, all at full health. There is question whether Amile and Grayson were actually fully healthy.



Personally, I'd still lean much more towards your #1 than #2. That's fine. If you accept that teams that "figured it out" give up 1.2 PPP to crappy offenses.



The fact is, duke's defense was a huge issue all year long. It was bad in the regular season. It was okay in the ACCT, and it was bad again against USC.

phaedrus
03-22-2018, 04:19 PM
Games are 40 minutes long. We outplayed 4 top-20 teams, 3 on neutral sites, in the two weeks prior to the tourney. And despite dealing with a bunch of injuries to key players (who were healthy by tourney time), we were a borderline top-10 team overall.

I think most would agree that we were a borderline top-10 team overall. Some among us (including my optimistic side) had hoped that as the presumptive preseason favorite, playing "at an extremely high level" would have meant more than "borderline top-10 team." We had some ups and downs characteristic of a borderline top-10 team. A borderline top-10 team losing to a 7-seed playing at home is not all that surprising.

Injuries were obviously a factor.

Troublemaker
03-22-2018, 04:20 PM
Games are 40 minutes long. We outplayed 4 top-20 teams, 3 on neutral sites, in the two weeks prior to the tourney. And despite dealing with a bunch of injuries to key players (who were healthy by tourney time), we were a borderline top-10 team overall.


I agree with CDu . . . those were 3 very good teams last year, all with extremely good coaches. And don't forget that we also played 1 more game than all 3 of those teams in consecutive days. Every opponent we faced in the ACCT (except in our first game) was playing on more rest. Our team had heart.

It's great that we won those games, but were we "playing at an extremely high level"? It's just semantics, I guess, but I would want to see a team that's playing great on both offense and defense to give them that label. In the ACC tourney, we were still fundamentally the same team -- very good offense, mediocre defense. It's just that our offense was hot enough in the second half of those games to make some stirring comebacks after our defense put us in a hole.

Were we a good team that's capable of making a run if things broke right? Sure. Were we "playing at an extremely high level"? No, at least not with my understanding of what those words mean. Reasonable minds can disagree on how words should be used, though.

I'm going to have to scroll back up to see how we ended up on this tangent in the Duke-Syracuse pregame thread.

mark34
03-22-2018, 04:24 PM
Plus, we were dealt a pretty bad hand with the injuries to Giles, Bolden, and Tatum, which slowed us coming out of the gate,


Perhaps an understatement. Has any team ever suffered as much from injury to as many expected starters for as many games as last year's Duke team? I still feel like people underestimate that when they talk about last year.

TruBlu
03-22-2018, 04:29 PM
I'm going to have to scroll back up to see how we ended up on this tangent in the Duke-Syracuse pregame thread.

Itís the internet. Itís DBR.

Someone stated an opinion. Someone else had different opinion(s).

Tangent happened. Strange, but true.

CDu
03-22-2018, 04:32 PM
kp gave duke a 3.2% chance to win the title. There's a reason for that.

Which was 9th best in the tournament. Only 2 teams had a 10% chance of winning.


They also lost to an 8 seed and an NIT team a week and a half before...you can't simply count the wins and then ignore the losses.

I didn't. I noted them. And I explained why (one starter missing in one, another game on the road against a tourney team fighting for its life). And again, we were a top-10 team on the season as a whole to that point, despite having guys miss a BUNCH of games due to injury.


Yes. i think final 4 was probably about the ceiling.

This is a silly thing to say. If you think a 2 seed has a Final Four ceiling, then you should think they can win it all. Because they should in theory have had to go through a 1 seed to get to the Final Four.


There is question whether Amile and Grayson were actually fully healthy.

Not known at the time, though. The general belief was that we were as healthy as we had been all season. And again, "all season" was a borderline top-10 team.


The fact is, duke's defense was a huge issue all year long. It was bad in the regular season. It was okay in the ACCT, and it was bad again against USC.

Duke's defense was mediocre for the season, not bad. It was still top-50 at season's end, even after the debacle in SC. Their offense, however, was elite. Which is why they were a top-10 team on the season, and considered by the prognosticators to be one of the 10 most likely winners of the tournament. Going into the tournament, in fact, we were pretty comparable statistically to the 2015 team. There is more than one way to win a title.


I think most would agree that we were a borderline top-10 team overall. Some among us (including my optimistic side) had hoped that as the presumptive preseason favorite, playing "at an extremely high level" would have meant more than "borderline top-10 team." We had some ups and downs characteristic of a borderline top-10 team. A borderline top-10 team losing to a 7-seed playing at home is not all that surprising. Injuries were obviously a factor.


It's great that we won those games, but were we "playing at an extremely high level"? It's just semantics, I guess, but I would want to see a team that's playing great on both offense and defense to give them that label. In the ACC tourney, we were still fundamentally the same team -- very good offense, mediocre defense. It's just that our offense was hot enough in the second half of those games to make some stirring comebacks after our defense put us in a hole.

Were we a good team that's capable of making a run if things broke right? Sure. Were we "playing at an extremely high level"? No, at least not with my understanding of what those words mean. Reasonable minds can disagree on how words should be used, though. I'm going to have to scroll back up to see how we ended up on this tangent in the Duke-Syracuse pregame thread.

Perhaps this IS getting into semantics. But I can't see a reasonable argument against the statement that a top-10 team is playing at a high level. Is it playing at as high a level as possible? Not necessarily. But if you are a top-10 team in D1, you are by definition playing at a high level, regardless of whether it is at your highest possible level or not.

uh_no
03-22-2018, 04:38 PM
This is getting into semantics. But a top-10 team is playing at a high level. Is it play at as high a level as possible? Not necessarily. But if you are a top-10 team, you are by definition playing at a high level, regardless of whether it is at your highest possible level or not.

Right, but the comment which started this was that people thought that it would be "easy" to dispatch of USC last year....which is a silly assertion even for a top 10 team, especially for a team which had been inconsistent...and to some degree that was driven by our play in the ACCT.

It's no secret that people generally have short memories around here. Yes the ACCT demonstrated we were a better team than we showed in the last 4 games of the regular season. No it couldn't possibly have been enough to say that a game against USC should have been a breeze. But that's what people here do often, and it likely fueled that thinking among some to a far greater extent than should have been justifiable.

Troublemaker
03-22-2018, 04:39 PM
Itís the internet. Itís DBR.

Someone stated an opinion. Someone else had different opinion(s).

Tangent happened. Strange, but true.

Perhaps I was not really wondering how we got here but was giving a friendly nudge to get back on track since the subject matter (essentially a semantics argument) is probably boring to most :-)

uh_no
03-22-2018, 04:41 PM
Perhaps I was not really wondering how we got here but was giving a friendly nudge to get back on track since the subject matter (essentially a semantics argument) is probably boring to most :-)

Syracuse is nowhere near as good as USC was last year. even mr skeptic over here thinks we have a good chance to make the elite 8 should we win this one.

Also this 6 day layoff is way too long. I'm sure it's great for the team....but not for me. The women's tournament having shifted a day doesn't help.

TruBlu
03-22-2018, 04:45 PM
Perhaps I was not really wondering how we got here but was giving a friendly nudge to get back on track since the subject matter (essentially a semantics argument) is probably boring to most :-)

Sorry. Was not trying to be snarky. Was trying for funny. Didnít work.

Kedsy
03-22-2018, 04:47 PM
Perhaps an understatement. Has any team ever suffered as much from injury to as many expected starters for as many games as last year's Duke team? I still feel like people underestimate that when they talk about last year.

It's also worth noting that Giles was supposed to be what Bagley is this year. Maybe he wasn't really, but if he was anywhere close and his injury robbed him of that, then that injury alone drastically changed our season.


Syracuse is nowhere near as good as USC was last year. even mr skeptic over here thinks we have a good chance to make the elite 8 should we win this one.

Should we win this one, I think we have a 100% chance of making the Elite Eight.

CDu
03-22-2018, 04:50 PM
Right, but the comment which started this was that people thought that it would be "easy" to dispatch of USC last year...which is a silly assertion even for a top 10 team, especially for a team which had been inconsistent...and to some degree that was driven by our play in the ACCT.

It's no secret that people generally have short memories around here. Yes the ACCT demonstrated we were a better team than we showed in the last 4 games of the regular season. No it couldn't possibly have been enough to say that a game against USC should have been a breeze. But that's what people here do often, and it likely fueled that thinking among some to a far greater extent than should have been justifiable.

And if you said "an inconsistent team shouldn't have been expected to win easily", and hadn't said that we were a mediocre team last year, I wouldn't have disagreed with you. But you went an errant step further in saying that this was a mediocre team. And that's why kAzE and I spoke up in dissent.

freshmanjs
03-22-2018, 05:26 PM
Syracuse is nowhere near as good as USC was last year. even mr skeptic over here thinks we have a good chance to make the elite 8 should we win this one.

Also this 6 day layoff is way too long. I'm sure it's great for the team...but not for me. The women's tournament having shifted a day doesn't help.

I definitely agree we have a great chance to make the elite 8 if we win this game against syracuse :)

It's not clear that Syracuse is "nowhere near" as good as USC last year. Syracuse has the #5 kenpom defense right now. I don't know what SC was at this stage, but they finished at #3. Neither team had a good offense going into the tournament. South Carolina's definitely improved, but that was unexpected.

OldPhiKap
03-22-2018, 05:28 PM
Should we win this one, I think we have a 100% chance of making the Elite Eight.

Well, if we win, we do have a 100% chance of making the Elite Eight in the Midwest bracket — but a staggering ZERO PERCENT CHANCE of making the Elite Eight in either the East, South, or West brackets.

So best I can tell, if we win we’re still only at about 25% or so overall.




On a related note, Neals384 no longer returns my PM’d questions about statistics.

cato
03-22-2018, 05:38 PM
Perhaps I was not really wondering how we got here but was giving a friendly nudge to get back on track since the subject matter (essentially a semantics argument) is probably boring to most :-)

This *is* DBR. Nudges, winks, shoves, threats and pleas to stay on or return to topic will be summarily ignored.

Unless a pun is available. Then it is fuel meets fire.

Kind of like a mediocre offense going up against a strong defense. So yeah, letís hope Syracuse goes down in flames.

Ian
03-22-2018, 05:55 PM
No, it's not. One of the things that's rarely talked about is how lucky we've gotten in our Final Four runs, especially in the 80s and 90s:

Our path this year has been 15-7-11 (total of 33). We've had five other runs as easy (or easier) to the Elite Eight:

1999: 16-9-12 (37)
1986: 16-8-12 (36)
1988: 15-7-11 (33)
1989: 15-7-11 (33)
1991: 15-7-11 (33)

If we're fortunate enough to beat Syracuse, our path to the Final Four will either be 34 (Kansas) or 38 (Clemson). If it's Clemson, it would be third "easiest"; if it's Kansas it would be in a three-way tie for 6th easiest:

1999: 16-9-12-6 (43)
1986: 16-8-12-7 (43)
1991: 15-7-11-4 (37)
2004: 16-8-5-7 (36)
2001: 16-9-4-6 (35)
1988: 15-7-11-1 (34)
1989: 15-7-11-1 (34)

I think this list is kind of misleding, because of course when you're a 1 or 2 seed your path is going to look easy.

16-8, or 15-7, is basically the highest possible for those seeds, If you're a number 1 seed even if everything goes chalk, you path still look relatively easy with a 30 total on the way to the final 4, and one upset in there somewhere and your path looks really easy. I don't think this is luck, the path is meant to be easier for higher seeds, that's why teams fight all season over seeding.

Kedsy
03-22-2018, 07:20 PM
I think this list is kind of misleding, because of course when you're a 1 or 2 seed your path is going to look easy.

16-8, or 15-7, is basically the highest possible for those seeds, If you're a number 1 seed even if everything goes chalk, you path still look relatively easy with a 30 total on the way to the final 4, and one upset in there somewhere and your path looks really easy. I don't think this is luck, the path is meant to be easier for higher seeds, that's why teams fight all season over seeding.

Well, I think the luck happened for most of those teams in the 3rd round (and for a lot of them in the 4th round too). Of Duke's 12 Final Four teams under Coach K, five of them (42%) not only did not play the 3/4 seed they were supposed to, they didn't even play the 6/5 -- they played the 11/12 (and if this year's team makes the Final Four, it'll be 6 of 13). Two other Duke Final Four teams played the #6/#7 seed in the 3rd round. In fact, only two Coach K Final Four teams played who they were supposed to play in the 3rd round (1992 and 2010). And in the Elite Eight, only half of Duke's Final Four teams played the top possible seed, while four of them played a #6 or #7 to get to the Final Four, and one played a #4 instead of the #1.

To me, that sounds pretty lucky.

MChambers
03-22-2018, 07:29 PM
Well, I think the luck happened for most of those teams in the 3rd round (and for a lot of them in the 4th round too). Of Duke's 12 Final Four teams under Coach K, five of them (42%) not only did not play the 3/4 seed they were supposed to, they didn't even play the 6/5 -- they played the 11/12 (and if this year's team makes the Final Four, it'll be 6 of 13). Two other Duke Final Four teams played the #6/#7 seed in the 3rd round. In fact, only two Coach K Final Four teams played who they were supposed to play in the 3rd round (1992 and 2010). And in the Elite Eight, only half of Duke's Final Four teams played the top possible seed, while four of them played a #6 or #7 to get to the Final Four, and one played a #4 instead of the #1.

To me, that sounds pretty lucky.

This certainly squares with my [increasingly unreliable] memory. Dukeís had some nice matchups in the first round of the Sweet Sixteen. Iíd like to think it bodes well for this year, but this stuff is random.

Kedsy
03-22-2018, 07:39 PM
I think this list is kind of misleding, because of course when you're a 1 or 2 seed your path is going to look easy.

FWIW, when Duke has played a #6 or worse in the Sweet 16 (under Coach K), we've gone 7-0. When we've played a #5 or better, we've gone 7-9. And those seven teams who played #6 or worse all made the Final Four and represent 58% of Coach K's Final Fours. Again, there appears to be a luck factor involved. Here's hoping we take advantage of that sort of luck again.

JNort
03-22-2018, 08:26 PM
I would feel much better about our chances if we found an old nun who was a Duke fan to attend our game.

ice-9
03-22-2018, 08:33 PM
I recall many people thought Iona & URI would be easy wins, too. Does that mean anything? How can we reconcile all these past games?! When something means something else, but the other thing means this contradictory thing? WE MUST HAVE ANSWERS!

The answer is to keep expectations low and respect the opponent no matter their record or KenPom ranking.

Cuz you know, we DBR posters have a big impact on the gameís outcome with our keyboards. 🤣

PS - Sorry for taking us off track! Certainly not my intention.

Fish80
03-22-2018, 09:05 PM
I would feel much better about our chances if we found an old nun who was a Duke fan to attend our game.

While not an old nun, a retired Marist Brother picked Duke to win it all. Counts for something.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-22-2018, 10:28 PM
I would feel much better about our chances if we found an old nun who was a Duke fan to attend our game.

I suspect they are out there.

ndkjr70
03-22-2018, 10:53 PM
Friend asked me a funny question today. If you could tithe yourself to Duke (give them 10% of your salary) and it would guarantee a national championship this year, would you?

My answer was absolutely yes. They can have my 49 dollars.

ChillinDuke
03-23-2018, 08:40 AM
I certainly hope the team was watching last night as three lower seeds knocked off higher seeds to make the Elite 8.

Don't underestimate anyone.

And I still love our matchup.

- Chillin

David Bunkley
03-23-2018, 08:48 AM
No one left in this tournament is an easy W.

That being said, if Duke plays smart, plays hard, and plays together, then I like our chances.

I wish they could roll the ball out and play now, because the anticipation is killing me.

#GODUKE

David Bunkley
03-23-2018, 08:52 AM
I would feel much better about our chances if we found an old nun who was a Duke fan to attend our game.

When asked about Sister Jean, Coach K laughed and said he was taught by nuns, too.

I think it was on Basketball and Beyond, though it may have been in the 3/22 presser. I listened to both yesterday, so I don't remember exactly, but it was a funny moment.

Troublemaker
03-23-2018, 08:53 AM
I certainly hope the team was watching last night as three lower seeds knocked off higher seeds to make the Elite 8.

Don't underestimate anyone.

And I still love our matchup.

- Chillin

I don't think the higher seeds underestimated the lower seeds yesterday, though (not that you were necessarily implying that).

And Duke can lose even if we have all the respect in the world for Cuse (which I'm sure you know). It's more like, "I certainly hope someone sacrificed a goat so that the basketball gods allow more of Duke's threes to go in than last time." If we miss shots and we turn the ball over (which unfortunately is more on us than the bball gods), we'll be in trouble.

DukieInBrasil
03-23-2018, 08:54 AM
Well, I think the luck happened for most of those teams in the 3rd round (and for a lot of them in the 4th round too). Of Duke's 12 Final Four teams under Coach K, five of them (42%) not only did not play the 3/4 seed they were supposed to, they didn't even play the 6/5 -- they played the 11/12 (and if this year's team makes the Final Four, it'll be 6 of 13). Two other Duke Final Four teams played the #6/#7 seed in the 3rd round. In fact, only two Coach K Final Four teams played who they were supposed to play in the 3rd round (1992 and 2010). And in the Elite Eight, only half of Duke's Final Four teams played the top possible seed, while four of them played a #6 or #7 to get to the Final Four, and one played a #4 instead of the #1.

To me, that sounds pretty lucky.

I know you love numbers, and you have done an incredible amount of data mining over the years to generate support or refute all sorts of ideas people have come up with here. My question about these numbers you've gathered: is that percentage any different than what another generic #1 or 2 seed has actually faced over the same time frame? Upsets happen every year and every higher seed has some chance of playing a team who has upset a higher seed. This year alone, we have an entire Region where all the top 4 seeds are gone, and we have 2 Elite 8 machups composed entirely of upsets (ie., no "chalk" games), granted a 3 over 2 is not a huge upset, but still.... In fact, of all the Sweet 16 games, only 1 of them was a "strait chalk" game.
So, i'm just wondering, does the 42% of games Duke played in the Sweet 16 vs upsets represent some sort of large deviance from the norm?

ehdg
03-23-2018, 08:58 AM
After watching last nights games am I the only one nervous about tonight? Seeing those lower seeds pull the upsets has me a bit jittery about tonight's games. Syracuse Defense is troublesome but I'm also a bit worried with the team being 4 freshman starters that they could come out flat as they've done other times this year. I'm really hoping they understand the importance of it's win or go home time of the year! They need to be motivated from the start and play 40 minutes like
they've done in the first 2 rounds. If they keep grounded and motivated they seriously have a good chance of making history!!

duke96
03-23-2018, 09:09 AM
After watching last nights games am I the only one nervous about tonight?

Is anyone NOT nervous!?

CDu
03-23-2018, 09:16 AM
After watching last nights games am I the only one nervous about tonight? Seeing those lower seeds pull the upsets has me a bit jittery about tonight's games. Syracuse Defense is troublesome but I'm also a bit worried with the team being 4 freshman starters that they could come out flat as they've done other times this year. I'm really hoping they understand the importance of it's win or go home time of the year! They need to be motivated from the start and play 40 minutes like
they've done in the first 2 rounds. If they keep grounded and motivated they seriously have a good chance of making history!!

One should be nervous for every game in a single-elimination tournament. Last night's games should only re-emphasize that. If you weren't nervous before last night, you should have been. Anyone left in our path could emerge victorious over us.

MChambers
03-23-2018, 09:17 AM
One should be nervous for every game in a single-elimination tournament. Last night's games should only re-emphasize that. If you weren't nervous before last night, you should have been. Anyone left in our path could emerge victorious over us.

No point in being nervous. None of us can affect the outcome, except maybe through our clothing choices.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-23-2018, 09:18 AM
One should be nervous for every game in a single-elimination tournament. Last night's games should only re-emphasize that. If you weren't nervous before last night, you should have been. Anyone left in our path could emerge victorious over us.

Excellent moment to point out that the tournament simply isn't designed to determine the "best" team. Sometimes the best team wins. Sometimes the hottest team, the luckiest team wins. Sometimes the best team runs into an injured player, a team that can't miss, or a night they can't hit.

If you want the "best team," look to NBA seven game series matchups, not single elimation tournaments.

Which is why it is so fun!

CDu
03-23-2018, 09:20 AM
No point in being nervous. None of us can affect the outcome, except maybe through our clothing choices.

That you can have no impact on the outcome (well, aside from breaking the law) has nothing to do with whether or not to be nervous that the team could lose.

curtis325
03-23-2018, 09:31 AM
That you can have no impact on the outcome (well, aside from breaking the law) has nothing to do with whether or not to be nervous that the team could lose.

Fans will be nervous or not. I choose to enjoy the games, win or lose, and be optimistic. Although I will be bummed out by a loss.

duke4ever19
03-23-2018, 09:40 AM
#BeatDuke is trending on Twitter.

The hate is real!

uh_no
03-23-2018, 09:44 AM
That you can have no impact on the outcome (well, aside from breaking the law) has nothing to do with whether or not to be nervous that the team could lose.
right.

it's not like being nervous is a particularly rational to begin with.....not that feelings are really rational at all.....but nervousness especially so.

gocanes0506
03-23-2018, 09:51 AM
#BeatDuke is trending on Twitter.

The hate is real!

when the main two teams that provide the hate dont have their own teams to cheer for :D then the hate multiples.

Speaking of the hate, in the ATL region they did a military tribute last night. They went through the few players and coaches that have a military background and the service academies. Side note* they only covered a couple of non service academy individuals as an assistant for UCLA did 20 in the Air Force and wasnt shown. I have spoken to him before. Back to the story* When K's picture popped up, there was a half effort to boo him. A few boos rang out. Being at the game with UK fans helped justify my pleasure during their dismay.

AGDukesky
03-23-2018, 09:53 AM
#BeatDuke is trending on Twitter.

The hate is real!

UNC and Kentucky fans have nothing better to do now, which is a wonderful thing!

Bluedog
03-23-2018, 09:53 AM
when the main two teams that provide the hate dont have their own teams to cheer for :D then the hate multiples.

Speaking of the hate, in the ATL region they did a military tribute last night. They went through the few players and coaches that have a military background and the service academies. Side note* they only covered a couple of non service academy individuals as an assistant for UCLA did 20 in the Air Force and wasnt shown. I have spoken to him before. Back to the story* When K's picture popped up, there was a half effort to boo him. A few boos rang out. Being at the game with UK fans helped justify my pleasure during their dismay.

Same thing happened in Charlotte...(Boos for Coach K during military appreciation). Obviously, I wouldn't expect anything less from Hole fans.

CrazyNotCrazie
03-23-2018, 09:53 AM
Is anyone NOT nervous!?

Pervis Ellison

sagegrouse
03-23-2018, 10:03 AM
No, it's not. One of the things that's rarely talked about is how lucky we've gotten in our Final Four runs, especially in the 80s and 90s:

Our path this year has been 15-7-11 (total of 33). We've had five other runs as easy (or easier) to the Elite Eight:

1999: 16-9-12 (37)
1986: 16-8-12 (36)
1988: 15-7-11 (33)
1989: 15-7-11 (33)
1991: 15-7-11 (33)

If we're fortunate enough to beat Syracuse, our path to the Final Four will either be 34 (Kansas) or 38 (Clemson). If it's Clemson, it would be third "easiest"; if it's Kansas it would be in a three-way tie for 6th easiest:

1999: 16-9-12-6 (43)
1986: 16-8-12-7 (43)
1991: 15-7-11-4 (37)
2004: 16-8-5-7 (36)
2001: 16-9-4-6 (35)
1988: 15-7-11-1 (34)
1989: 15-7-11-1 (34)

What I remember best is our four regional final wins against #1 seeds, including three in a row:
1988 over Temple with Mark Macon
1989 over Georgetown with Alonzo Mourning
1990 over UConn on a last-second shot in OT by Laettner
1994 over Purdue with Glenn (Big Dog) Robinson

No championships but we shoulda won in 1994.

BandAlum83
03-23-2018, 10:08 AM
#BeatDuke is trending on Twitter.

The hate is real!

Damn Russians! What did we do to piss them off?

cato
03-23-2018, 10:14 AM
No point in being nervous. None of us can affect the outcome, except maybe through our clothing choices.

I knew I should not have worn my orange jumpsuit today.

budwom
03-23-2018, 10:23 AM
No point in being nervous. None of us can affect the outcome, except maybe through our clothing choices.

not to mention the lucky Lindt dark cholate Easter Bunny which is currently facing the TV...

Rich
03-23-2018, 10:24 AM
#BeatDuke is trending on Twitter.

The hate is real!

Of course it is, but they will come to watch, even if it's just to root against us. You think a Purdue-Florida State championship would generate any ratings? Duke vs. anyone gets ratings. Few compare to Duke in generating interest when it comes to college basketball.

MChambers
03-23-2018, 11:01 AM
I knew I should not have worn my orange jumpsuit today.

Not a good choice, if you have a choice in your, umm, institution. Maybe accessorize your outfit with a pair of Duke boxers?

El_Diablo
03-23-2018, 11:09 AM
I don't think the higher seeds underestimated the lower seeds yesterday, though (not that you were necessarily implying that).

And Duke can lose even if we have all the respect in the world for Cuse (which I'm sure you know). It's more like, "I certainly hope someone sacrificed a goat so that the basketball gods allow more of Duke's threes to go in than last time." If we miss shots and we turn the ball over (which unfortunately is more on us than the bball gods), we'll be in trouble.

We are more into human sacrifices (https://sports.theonion.com/as-per-midnight-madness-tradition-duke-freshman-sacrif-1819571078).

uh_no
03-23-2018, 11:14 AM
We are more into human sacrifices (https://sports.theonion.com/as-per-midnight-madness-tradition-duke-freshman-sacrif-1819571078).

hold on....that article is fake news!

only 9,314 were in cameron that night!

ChillinDuke
03-23-2018, 11:21 AM
Excellent moment to point out that the tournament simply isn't designed to determine the "best" team. Sometimes the best team wins. Sometimes the hottest team, the luckiest team wins. Sometimes the best team runs into an injured player, a team that can't miss, or a night they can't hit.

If you want the "best team," look to NBA seven game series matchups, not single elimation tournaments.

Which is why it is so fun!

I agree with your point at its core. But I want to downplay the "randomness" that your post implies.

While the "best" team may not win, the concept of "best" is not easy to define and certainly not universally agreed upon. I'm not here to debate the definition of "best".

I'm here to point out that winning 6 games in a row is a feat unto itself, difficult to accomplish on its own, let alone beating 6 consecutive teams with a history of winning during the regular season, the majority of which are among the best teams in the country and have totally different styles and the games are played in totally different locations with different fanbases making up the attendance. Not to mention the significant game pressure (and general pressure) that comes from single elimination.

It's a wild and fascinating format. And while I again agree with your point at its core, one could make the argument that a format like the NCAAT is a better format than a series-format at choosing the "best" team. Series formats, while reducing the impact of variance, do less to place teams in pressure-packed and diversified situations.

- Chillin

ETA - I would go so far as to offer that the pressure associated with single elimination would be a welcome addition to the NBA playoffs (to use your NBA example). Maybe not in the finals, but in the first round, for example. I think baseball has done a great job implementing a single-elimination concept into their broader playoff format. Win your division, or be subject to a high-variance, high-pressure situation. You don't like it? Well, you weren't even the winningest team in your own division, so sorry.

AGDukesky
03-23-2018, 11:32 AM
Pervis Ellison

Too soon!

Ian
03-23-2018, 11:32 AM
FWIW, when Duke has played a #6 or worse in the Sweet 16 (under Coach K), we've gone 7-0. When we've played a #5 or better, we've gone 7-9. And those seven teams who played #6 or worse all made the Final Four and represent 58% of Coach K's Final Fours. Again, there appears to be a luck factor involved. Here's hoping we take advantage of that sort of luck again.

Pretty much every team should have a better record against 6 seeds or worse than they do against #5 or better. So the real question is whether playing 7 games against 6 or under reasonable compared to 16 games against 5 or better is reasonable or lucky.

7/23=30.4%, and quickly looking at the SW16 the last 4 years, the number of 6+ seeds were 19/64=29.7%. Almost exact match. So yes, we were fortunate to play lower seeds in those 7 years. But over all they are exactly what any SW16 team should expect to face.

jv001
03-23-2018, 11:42 AM
I agree with your point at its core. But I want to downplay the "randomness" that your post implies.

While the "best" team may not win, the concept of "best" is not easy to define and certainly not universally agreed upon. I'm not here to debate the definition of "best".

I'm here to point out that winning 6 games in a row is a feat unto itself, difficult to accomplish on its own, let alone beating 6 consecutive teams with a history of winning during the regular season, the majority of which are among the best teams in the country and have totally different styles and the games are played in totally different locations with different fanbases making up the attendance. Not to mention the significant game pressure (and general pressure) that comes from single elimination.

It's a wild and fascinating format. And while I again agree with your point at its core, one could make the argument that a format like the NCAAT is a better format than a series-format at choosing the "best" team. Series formats, while reducing the impact of variance, do less to place teams in pressure-packed and diversified situations.

- Chillin

ETA - I would go so far as to offer that the pressure associated with single elimination would be a welcome addition to the NBA playoffs (to use your NBA example). Maybe not in the finals, but in the first round, for example. I think baseball has done a great job implementing a single-elimination concept into their broader playoff format. Win your division, or be subject to a high-variance, high-pressure situation. You don't like it? Well, you weren't even the winningest team in your own division, so sorry.

I like both yours and MtnDevil's posts. One thing that will add is that most of the college basketball players will be playing their last games and that alone is some of the pressure. Of course there are some NBA players on those teams, but most of those are OADs that never bought into the college scene. All you have to do is watch Grayson's senior speech and you see how much some of these players loved their time at their schools. Single elimination sports are pressure packed.

I love this time of year. March Madness leading into the Masters Golf Tournament and summer on the way. GoDuke!

whereinthehellami
03-23-2018, 12:01 PM
Youth, experience is a concern for Duke but not really something that the Cuse has over Duke. Their starting 5 consists of 2 freshmen, 1 sophomore, and 2 juniors.

From what I'm seeing, the teams that have energy, togetherness, and toughness are winning. The Kansas State/Kentucky was a perfect example last night. There were multiple times that it looked like UK was going to seize control but KS kept together with good energy. You could see the youth of UK tightening up. Almost like they couldn't believe that the other team was still coming. I hope Duke is ready for a fight, I know Coach K is.

Reddevil
03-23-2018, 12:17 PM
I agree with your point at its core. But I want to downplay the "randomness" that your post implies.

While the "best" team may not win, the concept of "best" is not easy to define and certainly not universally agreed upon. I'm not here to debate the definition of "best".

I'm here to point out that winning 6 games in a row is a feat unto itself, difficult to accomplish on its own, let alone beating 6 consecutive teams with a history of winning during the regular season, the majority of which are among the best teams in the country and have totally different styles and the games are played in totally different locations with different fanbases making up the attendance. Not to mention the significant game pressure (and general pressure) that comes from single elimination.

It's a wild and fascinating format. And while I again agree with your point at its core, one could make the argument that a format like the NCAAT is a better format than a series-format at choosing the "best" team. Series formats, while reducing the impact of variance, do less to place teams in pressure-packed and diversified situations.

- Chillin

ETA - I would go so far as to offer that the pressure associated with single elimination would be a welcome addition to the NBA playoffs (to use your NBA example). Maybe not in the finals, but in the first round, for example. I think baseball has done a great job implementing a single-elimination concept into their broader playoff format. Win your division, or be subject to a high-variance, high-pressure situation. You don't like it? Well, you weren't even the winningest team in your own division, so sorry.

I have no faith that this bunch can win 6 games in a row. However, I think it is possible that they can win one game in a row, six consecutive times.:D

dukebluesincebirth
03-23-2018, 12:25 PM
Tick tock tick tock.... is it 9:30 yet? This work day is going by very slowly!

devildeac
03-23-2018, 02:34 PM
I would feel much better about our chances if we found an old nun who was a Duke fan to attend our game.

That'd be a good habit to establish.

devildeac
03-23-2018, 02:37 PM
No point in being nervous. None of us can affect the outcome, except maybe through our clothing choices.

Or brewery/pub to attend. Our son-in-law was at the Jolly Pumpkin in Chicago for both losses to the cheats this season. We are not going there tonight, even though we're not playing the cheats (I know, semantics as Syracuse cheated, too:rolleyes:).

devildeac
03-23-2018, 02:39 PM
I knew I should not have worn my orange jumpsuit today.

Not eligible for parole yet? :rolleyes:

cato
03-23-2018, 02:45 PM
Not eligible for parole yet? :rolleyes:

Hearing denied. Counting down until my release in 5 hours.

Steven43
03-23-2018, 03:26 PM
#BeatDuke is trending on Twitter.

The hate is real!

More appropriately the JEALOUSY is real!

wilson
03-23-2018, 03:30 PM
I would feel much better about our chances if we found an old nun who was a Duke fan to attend our game.


That'd be a good habit to establish.Oh, Lord. 🙄
If you want to start that stuff up, then get thee to a punnery.

MChambers
03-23-2018, 03:32 PM
That'd be a good habit to establish.

Maybe Sally Field is a Duke fan?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-23-2018, 03:34 PM
Oh, Lord. 🙄
If you want to start that stuff up, then get thee to a punnery.

Puns on this board are a cardinal sin.

Kedsy
03-23-2018, 03:36 PM
I know you love numbers, and you have done an incredible amount of data mining over the years to generate support or refute all sorts of ideas people have come up with here. My question about these numbers you've gathered: is that percentage any different than what another generic #1 or 2 seed has actually faced over the same time frame? Upsets happen every year and every higher seed has some chance of playing a team who has upset a higher seed. This year alone, we have an entire Region where all the top 4 seeds are gone, and we have 2 Elite 8 machups composed entirely of upsets (ie., no "chalk" games), granted a 3 over 2 is not a huge upset, but still... In fact, of all the Sweet 16 games, only 1 of them was a "strait chalk" game.
So, i'm just wondering, does the 42% of games Duke played in the Sweet 16 vs upsets represent some sort of large deviance from the norm?

To answer your question, #1s and #2s have played 131 games against #5 or better in the Sweet 16 and 66 games against #6 or worse, which comes to 33.5%. Duke as a #1 or #2 has played 6 Sweet 16 games against #6 or worse, which is actually a little lower (30.0%). #1s and #2s have played 37 Sweet 16 games against #7 or worse (18.8%), while Duke #1s or #2s have played 5 Sweet 16s against #7 or worse teams (25.0%), which is obviously a little better.

Adding a little context, there have been 132 Final Four teams since the tourney went to 64+ teams. Of those, 23 (17.4%) got there through a chalk path, including 10 of 54 #1 seeds (18.5%), 5 of 28 #2 seeds (17.9%), 3 of 15 #3 seeds (20.0%), 2 of 13 #4 seeds (15.4%), and 3 of 18 #5+ seeds (16.7%).

Of all #1 seeds from 1985 to 2017, 36 of 132 played a chalk path (27.3%) and 10 of the 36 made the Final Four (27.8%). Thus 96 #1s did not play a chalk path (72.7%) and of those 34 made the Final Four (35.4%).

Of all #2 seeds that did not lose in the first round, 45 of 124 played a chalk path (36.3%) and 5 of the 45 made the Final Four (11.1%). Thus 79 #2s did not play a chalk path (63.7%) and of those 23 made the Final Four (29.1%).

Duke has been a #1 or #2 that did not lose in the first round 22 times. Of those, Duke has played a chalk path 5 times (22.7%), and of those we made the Final Four once (20%). We made the Final Four 10 of the 17 times we didn't have a chalk path (58.8%).

But the luck part comes when you compare the 80s/90s when we got our reputation for being a great tourney team to the 00s/10s when we've come close to losing that reputation:

85 (3-seed): 14-11
86 (1-seed): 16-8-12-7
87 (5-seed): 12-13-1
88 (2-seed): 15-7-11-1
89 (2-seed): 15-7-11-1
90 (3-seed): 14-6-7-1
91 (2-seed): 15-7-11-4
92 (1-seed): 16-8-4-2 (chalk)
93 (3-seed): 14-6 (chalk)
94 (2-seed): 15-7-6-1
96 (8-seed): 9
97 (2-seed): 15-10
98 (1-seed); 16-8-5-2 (close to chalk)
99 (1-seed): 16-9-12-6

So, in the 13 tournaments that we won a game from 1985 to 1999, we faced double-digit seeds after the first round 8 times (61.5%), and faced 6+ in the Sweet 16 another couple times (i.e., 70% of our Sweet 16s were against 6+).

00 (1-seed): 16-8-5 (close to chalk)
01 (1-seed): 16-9-4-6
02 (1-seed): 16-8-5 (close to chalk)
03 (3-seed): 14-11-2
04 (1-seed): 16-8-5-7
05 (1-seed): 16-9-5 (close to chalk)
06 (1-seed): 16-8-4 (chalk)
07 (6-seed): 11
08 (2-seed): 15-7 (chalk)
09 (2-seed): 15-7-3 (chalk)
10 (1-seed): 16-8-4-3 (close to chalk)
11 (1-seed): 16-8-5 (close to chalk)
12 (2-seed): 15
13 (2-seed): 15-7-3-1 (chalk)
14 (3-seed): 14
15 (1-seed): 16-8-5-2 (close to chalk)
16 (4-seed): 13-12-1
17 (2-seed): 15-7 (chalk)

So, in this period of 15 tournaments when we won a game from 2000 to 2017, we faced double-digit seeds after the first round only twice (13.3%), and none of our 13 Sweet 16s (0%) were against 6+ opponents.

So I guess really this is a story of really good luck then pretty bad luck, which I guess evens out. But it also possibly explains why we went to so many Final Fours from 1985 to 1999 and not so many in 2000 to 2017.

MChambers
03-23-2018, 04:57 PM
Relax, folks. We've got this one in the bag. I smoked two pork shoulders earlier this week so that I could serve NC-style barbecue tonight. I don't think Syracuse or its fans can match that.

duke4ever19
03-23-2018, 05:21 PM
Relax, folks. We've got this one in the bag. I smoked two pork shoulders earlier this week so that I could serve NC-style barbecue tonight. I don't think Syracuse or its fans can match that.

If the predicted scores from the other thread are any indication, then I think most people expect things to go well for Duke tonight. Syracuse missed a lot of shots in the previous matchup, many of which were very good looks. They just clanked them in Cameron. If they get those to fall, then this game could get interesting.

Ian
03-23-2018, 05:33 PM
If the predicted scores from the other thread are any indication, then I think most people expect things to go well for Duke tonight. Syracuse missed a lot of shots in the previous matchup, many of which were very good looks. They just clanked them in Cameron. If they get those to fall, then this game could get interesting.

Sure, they might get them to fall. But their showing in Cameron wasn't just bad luck, on the season they shoot 31.7% from 3 as a team, 329th in all of Div I. They shot a bit better in ACC play at 34.1% But that is still only 12th out of 15. So far in the NCAA tournment they have shot 11/42 or 26.2% from 3. They are a bad outside shooting team.

duke4ever19
03-23-2018, 05:38 PM
Sure, they might get them to fall. But their showing in Cameron wasn't just bad luck, on the season they shoot 31.7% from 3 as a team, 329th in all of Div I. They shot a bit better in ACC play at 34.1% But that is still only 12th out of 15. So far in the NCAA tournment they have shot 11/42 or 26.2% from 3. They are a bad outside shooting team.

I was referring more to shots from two and near the rim. Yes, they aren't a good shooting team, but I know the Syracuse coaching staff rewatched that game in Cameron and came away thinking they left a lot of points on the floor.

devildeac
03-23-2018, 05:42 PM
I was referring more to shots from two and near the rim. Yes, they aren't a good shooting team, but I know the Syracuse coaching staff rewatched that game in Cameron and came away thinking they left a lot of points on the floor.

So did we (2/18 from 3-land :eek:).

;)

Kedsy
03-23-2018, 05:47 PM
I was referring more to shots from two and near the rim. Yes, they aren't a good shooting team, but I know the Syracuse coaching staff rewatched that game in Cameron and came away thinking they left a lot of points on the floor.

They shot 11 for 29 (38%) on two-points shots in that game. For the season, they average 46% on two-point shots, which means they left approximately 5 points (points, not baskets) on the floor in that game. But we won by 16, and to me it sure looked like Duke left a lot more points on the floor than Syracuse did.

duke4ever19
03-23-2018, 05:56 PM
They shot 11 for 29 (38%) on two-points shots in that game. For the season, they average 46% on two-point shots, which means they left approximately 5 points (points, not baskets) on the floor in that game. But we won by 16, and to me it sure looked like Duke left a lot more points on the floor than Syracuse did.

Add those 5-points, throw in neutral court with somewhat hostile crowd wanting to cheer for the underdog etc. and you are probably close to the spread for tonight.

I just don't feel quite as confident about this game as others. Happy to be wrong, of course.

freshmanjs
03-23-2018, 06:01 PM
Add those 5-points, throw in neutral court with somewhat hostile crowd wanting to cheer for the underdog etc. and you are probably close to the spread for tonight.

I just don't feel quite as confident about this game as others. Happy to be wrong, of course.

Why would you add back those 5 points but not add back points for Duke shooting at our average? Obviously if Duke has a horrible shooting night and Syracuse has an average one, that would not be ideal. But you're writing like that is the likely outcome.

El_Diablo
03-23-2018, 06:03 PM
We have been upset in the Sweet Sixteen where the spread was even greater. Take nothing for granted!

duke4ever19
03-23-2018, 06:43 PM
Why would you add back those 5 points but not add back points for Duke shooting at our average? Obviously if Duke has a horrible shooting night and Syracuse has an average one, that would not be ideal. But you're writing like that is the likely outcome.

Because I'm talking about what Syracuse can do tonight, while ignoring Duke's side of things.

I'm simply making a few random remarks about my confidence (or lack thereof) in the game tonight, and overtly cherry picking a 'for instance' to support my feelings. I have no desire to hide my emotions behind a wall of data.

MaxAMillion
03-23-2018, 08:08 PM
I have two concerns. One is the play of Duval. Clearly Syracuse will play 5 on 4 on the defensive end (letting Duval shoot at will) Can he have a positive impact on the half court offense. Also, Duke is not a good free throw shooting team. Can Bagley or Duval make free throws at the end of a close game? It is hard to win a title if you canít consistently make free throws.

MChambers
03-23-2018, 08:13 PM
I have two concerns. One is the play of Duval. Clearly Syracuse will play 5 on 4 on the defensive end (letting Duval shoot at will) Can he have a positive impact on the half court offense. Also, Duke is not a good free throw shooting team. Can Bagley or Duval make free throws at the end of a close game? It is hard to win a title if you canít consistently make free throws.

If only two things worry you, youíre doing better than many here! Seriously, your points are valid.

duke4ever19
03-23-2018, 08:51 PM
Is Kenny Smith really that petty? He can't say "Duke?" He has to say, "The team in Durham." So stupid.

Edit: Hey, he just said it!

WHOneedsSOX
03-23-2018, 08:59 PM
I have two concerns. One is the play of Duval. Clearly Syracuse will play 5 on 4 on the defensive end (letting Duval shoot at will) Can he have a positive impact on the half court offense. Also, Duke is not a good free throw shooting team. Can Bagley or Duval make free throws at the end of a close game? It is hard to win a title if you canít consistently make free throws.

Duval is going to have to make his impact on the transition game. Push the ball up the court and make good decisions.

WHOneedsSOX
03-23-2018, 09:00 PM
Woah look at Nolan Smith's suit!

riverside6
03-23-2018, 09:02 PM
Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Syracuse...
https://www.scacchoops.com/syracuse-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-32318

subzero02
03-23-2018, 09:14 PM
Javin blows a pretty good scoring chance by traveling....

AGDukesky
03-23-2018, 09:19 PM
Defense has been as bad as it could be- allowing easy shots and offensive rebounds. Offense can get almost any shot it wants but has not taken advantage as much as it should. Hopefully we settle down on both ends and impose our will...

ChrisP
03-23-2018, 09:19 PM
Already a very different game than the one in Durham. Our version of "Orange" suddenly looks very susceptible to floaters and dunks. Need to get that sorted out!

ice-9
03-23-2018, 09:20 PM
We're overextending the perimeter and Syracuse is doing a good job of penetrating. They're taking advantage of our zone with one big in the post after dribbling in with a backdoor alley oop instead of the mid-range shot. It's a brilliant tactic. Our second big needs to do a better job of preventing the backdoor, and/or not extending out so much.

Syracuse isn't a good perimeter shooting team. Do we really need to be so far out on the perimeter?

WHOneedsSOX
03-23-2018, 09:21 PM
I have a feeling O'Connell might make a 3 tonight.

NM Duke Fan
03-23-2018, 09:24 PM
The Cuse looks like a very different team from a month ago, this could be a tight game for a long stretch unless Duke gets into a great shooting streak. The zone needs to make some quick adjustments too!

BigZ
03-23-2018, 09:24 PM
JD should not be playing the 3

WHOneedsSOX
03-23-2018, 09:28 PM
JD should not be playing the 3

Kind of has to at least once if he's that wide open. And with Bagley and Carter down low they at least have a chance for an offensive rebound.

Edit: saw you said play, not shoot.

AGDukesky
03-23-2018, 09:29 PM
Defense has been better other than allowing the open corner 3 late in the shot clock. Offense is making good decisions. Need to hope we shoot a normal % and same for Syracuse.

rsvman
03-23-2018, 09:29 PM
Ugly is as ugly does.
Just win.

NM Duke Fan
03-23-2018, 09:30 PM
A huge 3rd foul on Dolezaj, who is probably their best passer from the free throw area, this can help Duke to clamp down a bit better on passing against their zone. Gaining a bit of momentum now in this game.

BigZ
03-23-2018, 09:31 PM
Bolden really impressive

BigZ
03-23-2018, 09:32 PM
Kind of has to at least once if he's that wide open. And with Bagley and Carter down low they at least have a chance for an offensive rebound.

Edit: saw you said play, not shoot.

Well he def should not shoot the three either

jipops
03-23-2018, 09:38 PM
Our zone is not working tonight. Cuse is just carving it up.

BigZ
03-23-2018, 09:38 PM
Rebounding is poor

AGDukesky
03-23-2018, 09:38 PM
Every break going for Syracuse. So frustrating and giving them confidence. Not sure things could have gone much better for them other than fouls...

rsvman
03-23-2018, 09:40 PM
Every break going for Syracuse. So frustrating and giving them confidence. Not sure things could have gone much better for them other than fouls...

Agreed. Reversion to the mean is our friend.

arnie
03-23-2018, 09:41 PM
Every break going for Syracuse. So frustrating and giving them confidence. Not sure things could have gone much better for them other than fouls...

My thoughts exactly. And Syracuse a little stronger with the ball. When they miss, we have to rebound and run.

ChrisP
03-23-2018, 09:41 PM
Gotta do a better job of corralling rebounds. Also, how is that not an intentional foul there as GA was racing to the hoop???

BigZ
03-23-2018, 09:43 PM
Carter needs help on defense inside

dukelion
03-23-2018, 09:43 PM
Gotta do a better job of corralling rebounds. Also, how is that not an intentional foul there as GA was racing to the hoop???

Agree on both counts.....had to be a flag 1.

And man Cuse has had some long possessions so far.

dukelion
03-23-2018, 09:47 PM
Zone floor slap!

Allen looks like a real senior leader out there......love it.

mr shadow 008
03-23-2018, 09:47 PM
Bagley with the floor slap! I loved Grant asking if you could do that in a zone.

Phoenix22
03-23-2018, 09:48 PM
Zone slappin D!

Intimidated them into a timeout!

godins
03-23-2018, 09:48 PM
Our zone is not working tonight. Cuse is just carving it up.

Yep, carving it up like a turkey! /s

BlueandWhite
03-23-2018, 09:49 PM
Agree on both counts....had to be a flag 1.

And man Cuse has had some long possessions so far.

Thoughts on the game for Duke thus far:

1. Rebounds
2. Make your free throws!
3. Grayson, Trent - take more shots please

BigZ
03-23-2018, 09:49 PM
Alex getting some good burn. Better matchup against tge zone than TD

ChrisP
03-23-2018, 09:49 PM
We also haven't really made Cuse pay for all their TO'S. We've actually forced quite a few

WHOneedsSOX
03-23-2018, 09:52 PM
We also haven't really made Cuse pay for all their TO'S. We've actually forced quite a few

A lot were dead ball turnovers though.

BlueandWhite
03-23-2018, 09:52 PM
Thoughts on the game for Duke thus far:

1. Rebounds
2. Make your free throws!
3. Grayson, Trent - take more shots please

Grayson to close the half with a three!

ChrisP
03-23-2018, 09:53 PM
Would really have been nice if AOC could have converted there (or at least drawn another Cuse foul). Another missed opportunity there off a TO :(

dukelion
03-23-2018, 09:53 PM
Cuse saved by the half.

If we get this thing to 10 it'll be a tough road back for them unless Battle goes off.

lmb
03-23-2018, 09:55 PM
Alex brought some much needed energy

rsvman
03-23-2018, 09:55 PM
Would really have been nice if AOC could have converted there (or at least drawn another Cuse foul). Another missed opportunity there off a TO :(

He had a trailer that would've had an open dunk.
Gotta be smarter there. But to be fair, he did force the turnover.