JJ's prospects - Even with a new coach, I'm afraid...

[_Gary]

that JJ is going to have a tough time again getting significant minutes in Orlando. Coach Van Gundy had felt (rightfully so I'm sure) that JJ was pressing as it was, but with our guy re-injuring his right hand again he didn't play at all in last night's exhibition. What makes matters worse (from a purely selfish perspective on my part, wanting to see JJ play) is that Keith Bogans has stolen Superman's cape and used it to his advantage over the last week and a half. The guy is playing way, way over his head. He's hitting a crazy percentage of 3's (never a strength of his) and just flat out balling. And now Keyon Dooling has started playing again (after sitting out the first several pre-season games with an injury).

Less than 2 weeks ago JJ actually had a legitimate chance to earn a starting spot on this team. Now I'm really concerned that between his pushing himself too hard and having Bogans play out of his mind that not only will he not start (that's pretty much a done deal at this point) but I'm concerned he may find himself logging less than 10 minutes a game again as we start the new season. And JJ really is a rhythm shooter. It's difficult to imagine him being able to prosper if he's only getting limited minutes. But I'm really concerned that's exactly what's going to happen after seeing Bogans, and now Dooling. And those two aren't going to be the only ones that could push JJ's time down. There are certainly lineups that could at times push Lewis and/or Ariza into the 2 guard spot. Not for long stretches. But that possibility could push JJ's minutes down even more.

Hope I'm wrong about this development. But after last night's game, I'm definitely more concerned about his time going down.

[jacone21]

Try not to worry too much. JJ had a pretty solid preseason, and it was announced ahead of time that he would not play in last night's game because of the sore hand. You can't really fault coaching for injuries (not that you were). It's really up to JJ to make it happen. I believe that if he performs, he'll play. He'll get his chance, but he has to do the work. Bottom line. Nobody to blame but JJ if things don't go well (assuming he's healthy). Now injuries are just bad luck, and we can lament them all day. I would love to see JJ in perfect health for a while... along with some other current and former Dukies.

[Clipsfan]

Try not to worry too much. JJ had a pretty solid preseason, and it was announced ahead of time that he would not play in last night's game because of the sore hand. You can't really fault coaching for injuries (not that you were). It's really up to JJ to make it happen. I believe that if he performs, he'll play. He'll get his chance, but he has to do the work. Bottom line. Nobody to blame but JJ if things don't go well (assuming he's healthy). Now injuries are just bad luck, and we can lament them all day. I would love to see JJ in perfect health for a while... along with some other current and former Dukies.

Not only that, but there is time for JJ to work himself into the proper position. He may not start now, but that doesn't mean he won't start in the future. After all, he has 3 more years on his contract now.

[Jumbo]

that JJ is going to have a tough time again getting significant minutes in Orlando. Coach Van Gundy had felt (rightfully so I'm sure) that JJ was pressing as it was, but with our guy re-injuring his right hand again he didn't play at all in last night's exhibition. What makes matters worse (from a purely selfish perspective on my part, wanting to see JJ play) is that Keith Bogans has stolen Superman's cape and used it to his advantage over the last week and a half. The guy is playing way, way over his head. He's hitting a crazy percentage of 3's (never a strength of his) and just flat out balling. And now Keyon Dooling has started playing again (after sitting out the first several pre-season games with an injury).

Less than 2 weeks ago JJ actually had a legitimate chance to earn a starting spot on this team. Now I'm really concerned that between his pushing himself too hard and having Bogans play out of his mind that not only will he not start (that's pretty much a done deal at this point) but I'm concerned he may find himself logging less than 10 minutes a game again as we start the new season. And JJ really is a rhythm shooter. It's difficult to imagine him being able to prosper if he's only getting limited minutes. But I'm really concerned that's exactly what's going to happen after seeing Bogans, and now Dooling. And those two aren't going to be the only ones that could push JJ's time down. There are certainly lineups that could at times push Lewis and/or Ariza into the 2 guard spot. Not for long stretches. But that possibility could push JJ's minutes down even more.

Hope I'm wrong about this development. But after last night's game, I'm definitely more concerned about his time going down.

JJ will definitely be in the rotation. If he's going to be anything more than a 20-minute-a-night, designated shooter, it'll be up to him, not his coaches.

[Billy Dat]

If Jason Kapono and Steve Kerr can be legit NBA players, there is no reason why JJ can't. If it's not in Orlando, it will be somewhere else. If he can't beat out Keith Bogans, then he doesn't deserve the burn

[Billy Dat]

Is JJ better then Steve Alford? That may be the question du jour. Alford never got off the bench and never had an NBA career....yet he was great in college. Will JJ be Alford or Kerr/Kapono or can he aspire higher?

[mapei]

Or Tim Legler.

[_Gary]

I think my first post might have been misunderstood a bit. Unlike last year, when JJ clearly didn't get a fair shake (in spite of the injury that did hurt his progress early on) from the head coach, I am NOT saying if he doesn't get minutes at the beginning of the season it will be because of the coach. Not at all. I'm saying that right now a few things are conspiring against him. Between this minor setback with the hand, the numerous players on the Magic that could play the 2, and the red hot play of Keith Bogans (shooting way over his head right now, IMHO) JJ is going to have a tough time getting serious minutes. I'm not saying he will ride the pine entirely. I'm saying he may not get the 20 to 25 minutes a game that I thought he would just two weeks ago when the preseason began. If he doesn't play much it will NOT be about the coach. Sorry if I gave that impression initially. I'm just saying he's had a few tough breaks in the last week or so and it might set him back a bit. That's all.

Gary

[throatybeard]

Gary posts that the sky is falling w/r/t a Duke pro. I never could have predicted...

[lavell12]

Besides Pistol Pete, JJ is the greatests shooter in College history so I think he has a role to just shoot, so who cares about D he is there to shoot.

Plus more defense is played at Duke in one game than during an entire NBA season.

[Jumbo]

Plus more defense is played at Duke in one game than during an entire NBA season.

Huh?

[throatybeard]

Plus more defense is played at Duke in one game than during an entire NBA season.

This was true 15 years ago but no longer is true, although a lot of said D takes the form "mugging a guy in the lane"

Have you seen a game recently? It's all 77-72 now. Some of that's because no one can shoot, but a lot of it's b/c the defense have gotten more sophisticated. Well, and also, you can mug people in the lane.

[Bob Green]

This was true 15 years ago but no longer is true, although a lot of said D takes the form "mugging a guy in the lane"

Have you seen a game recently? It's all 77-72 now. Some of that's because no one can shoot, but a lot of it's b/c the defense have gotten more sophisticated. Well, and also, you can mug people in the lane.

I've never been a fan of the touch foul and believe the refs need to "let'em play" up to a point. That point is routinely crossed these days, which results in the game of basketball being too physical.

As an example, J.J. Redick was mauled by Michigan State defenders during Duke's Sweet Sixteen loss in 2005.

[Jumbo]

This was true 15 years ago but no longer is true, although a lot of said D takes the form "mugging a guy in the lane"

Have you seen a game recently? It's all 77-72 now. Some of that's because no one can shoot, but a lot of it's b/c the defense have gotten more sophisticated. Well, and also, you can mug people in the lane.

Actually, the college game is more physical than the NBA game. Coach K said as much this summer. In the NBA, touch fouls are called more than ever. That's how Dwyane Wade shot roughly 20 free throws a game in the 2006 Finals.

[mapei]

I take your point, but Steve Nash might beg to differ.

[Jumbo]

I take your point, but Steve Nash might beg to differ.

Indeed.

[JBDuke]

I think my first post might have been misunderstood a bit. Unlike last year, when JJ clearly didn't get a fair shake (in spite of the injury that did hurt his progress early on) from the head coach, I am NOT saying if he doesn't get minutes at the beginning of the season it will be because of the coach. Not at all. I'm saying that right now a few things are conspiring against him. Between this minor setback with the hand, the numerous players on the Magic that could play the 2, and the red hot play of Keith Bogans (shooting way over his head right now, IMHO) JJ is going to have a tough time getting serious minutes. I'm not saying he will ride the pine entirely. I'm saying he may not get the 20 to 25 minutes a game that I thought he would just two weeks ago when the preseason began. If he doesn't play much it will NOT be about the coach. Sorry if I gave that impression initially. I'm just saying he's had a few tough breaks in the last week or so and it might set him back a bit. That's all.

Gary

I think you're right that Bogans has stepped it up and won himself a starting spot. Furthermore, I think that right now, JJ fits better into the second team rotation for the Magic than he does in the first.

With the signing of Lewis, it looks like van Gundy's going to start both Lewis and Turkoglu. That gives him two proven perimeter shooters already in the starting lineup. Neither is much of a defender, either. Bogans, as a powerful guard with multiple scoring options (especially since, as you noted, he's shooting so well this preseason) and a good defender to boot, mixes well with that lineup. Whereas the second team needs a shooter and scorer. Ariza is more of a penetrator/power wing than Turkoglu. Foyle and Battie aren't exactly going to light it up from outside, either. If Garrity gets into the mix, he can obviously shoot, but that's about it. I'm not sold on Dooling yet, and I think he's more of a threat to take time from Arroyo in the second team than he is to take it from JJ.

So, unlike last year, I suspect JJ will be the #2 shooting guard, and when Bogan's scoring returns to form, JJ may have a better opening, especially if he keeps up the effort on D. (I've seen him play a bit this preseason, and I thought he looked pretty good on defense.) I'd expect to see him get 15-20 mins a game here at the start of the season, and that should be enough for him to show what he can do as soon as he's healthy. It's certainly a much better place than where he was last year...

[throatybeard]

Wade and Nash are stars. If Dahntay Jones goes into the lane like that, he's gonna be lying on his butt.

[JasonEvans]

Orlando is fairly good this year, just behind Chicago, Boston, Cleveland, and Detroit as the elite of the East. So, given that they are a good team, I see nothing wrong with JJ playing a Vinne-Johnson-like role of "instant offense" off the bench.

Folks on this board really get hung up on starting. Every successful team needs soilid 20-minute/game guys who come off the bench and keep you doing well when your starters get a blow in the middle of each half. There is a reason the 6th Man Award is prestigous and significant. Whether it is Gerald Henderson or JJ, just because they may not start it does not mean they are not being used in a way that greatly benefits their teams.

--Jason "if JJ gets less than 10 min/game I will be disappointed... I bet he is closer to 20, which is fine for a 2nd year guy in the NBA" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Wade and Nash are stars. If Dahntay Jones goes into the lane like that, he's gonna be lying on his butt.

That's cause they call fouls differently in the CBA.

Sorry, that was a really low blow. I love Dahntay. Really.

--Jason "I just could not resist" Evans

[SilkyJ]

Not only that, but there is time for JJ to work himself into the proper position. He may not start now, but that doesn't mean he won't start in the future. After all, he has 3 more years on his contract now.

the last 3 years are all team options though...

[JBDuke]

the last 3 years are all team options though...

Yes, but the Magic have already picked up the option on JJ's contract for the next 3 years. Here's a link: http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_magic/2007/10/rashard-jj-jame.html

[_Gary]

Folks on this board really get hung up on starting. Every successful team needs soilid 20-minute/game guys who come off the bench and keep you doing well when your starters get a blow in the middle of each half.

I guess that comment was directed toward me, but it's not the case. I'm more than happy with former Dukies being 6th men coming off the bench. If anyone thinks otherwise about me, they are wrong. Having said that, I do believe JJ is a rhythm shooter and needs more than one or two minutes on the court at a time in order to be effective. We've all seen him "heat up" after missing a few shots. But if he's out there as a designated shooter ONLY, and he misses his first couple of shots, he might get pulled before he can heat up and contribute. That's the only reason I was hoping he might win a starting spot. Generally starters are going to get more minutes in general, and they have a little longer leash than guys coming in off the bench, especially if those guys are viewed as the latest version of "the microwave". That's my only concern with JJ. That he get enough minutes to actually get into rhythm and contribute.

I'll be very happy if JJ is coming off the bench and getting 20+ minutes a game. I'm just hoping those minutes aren't closer to 10 than 20. Because I'll definitely be disappointed if that's the case. Let's hope it doesn't work out like that for JJ.

Gary

[_Gary]

Unfortunately, JJ is definitely NOT in the rotation for the Magic right now. He didn't get into tonight's game until it was well in hand for the Pistons.

It's just amazing that he could go from contending for a starting spot just three weeks ago to not even being in the rotation at all. But a number of things that were out of his control conspired against him. Whether it be his surgery last year that put him behind at the beginning of his rookie campaign, or the hiring of a very defensive minded coach (not his strength), or Keith Bogans suddenly channeling Larry Bird from three, its all adding up to him riding the pine. I do believe JJ can be successful in the league, but I don't see it happening in Orlando. At this point 10 minutes a game isn't even within reach, much less 20. :(

[lazee]

JJ did NOT have surgery last season. He had a herniated disk in his back that did not require surgery and a foot injury going into his rookie season, but ended the season healthy. He was healthy going into summer league, but had a hairline fracture in his shooting hand prior to pre-season. He played good for the first few games before the China games. He came back and injured the same hand in practice. I don't know if he's now 100% healthy though.

[_Gary]

For some reason I thought he did have surgery last year, but regardless it doesn't change my point at all. And while he may or may not have minor issues with the hand he injured this year, it's not the reason he's riding the pine. He is behind Bogans and Dooling at this point, and he's not going to see many minutes early in this season unless something very unexpected happens (i.e. injury to someone else).