What is your big first round upset?

[Wander]

A little late, so use the honor system and don't vote for something that's already happened.

Mine are (1) College of Charleston over Auburn, who hasn't been the same since their starting center was injured, and (2) Buffalo over Arizona, who is being overrated because of their NBA talent and probably needs a karma-filled loss.

[gocanes0506]

Bonnies over Florida
Buffalo over Arizona
SD st over Ohio State

[Dukiedevil]

Would have voted for Davidson over KY, but don't see it as an option.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

An honest reply would've been SFA over Tech or Charleston over a slumping Auburn team that is no where near a 4 seed quality team now.

But out of hope, I picked Bucknell.

(and seriously, multiple votes for Buffalo over Zona?)

[FerryFor50]

Kudos to PackMan97 (and others) for channeling UNC hatred into picking Lipscomb over UNC. :D

[left_hook_lacey]

As I voted on this poll, it got me wondering, how many pools are you all in? I had several of the upsets picked, just not all on the same bracket and that made me wonder if I have a problem. :D

I'm in 3 pools that are, um, weighted more than others and carry more bragging rights as well. The pool with my poker game buddies, the pool with my old teammates and friends from high school, and my office pool.

I'm also in the 8-man DBR S-curve pick which was fun and interesting. Can't wait to see how that plays out.

So, altogether, I'm in 6 different competitions. Anyone else in more?

[whereinthehellami]

Bold calls on zona going down. I got new Mexico state over clemson.

Is this the thread for random march madness in game posts?

[PackMan97]

Kudos to PackMan97 (and others) for channeling UNC hatred into picking Lipscomb over UNC. :D

Even if I'm wrong, I still get the pleasure of picturing, in my minds eye, the Tarheel players sobbing their eyes out as the Bison's celebrate the historic upset. It brings back shades of 2012 all over again, when State made it the sweet 16 and Carolina didn't make it to the Final Four. :cool:

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I would love to see a Bucknell win. I swear MSU somehow became every sports media person's tournament favorite during their layoff week.

[whereinthehellami]

Even if I'm wrong, I still get the pleasure of picturing, in my minds eye, the Tarheel players sobbing their eyes out as the Bison's celebrate the historic upset. It brings back shades of 2012 all over again, when State made it the sweet 16 and Carolina didn't make it to the Final Four. :cool:

I tend to go the other way and pick the cheats to go farther than i really think they will. That way if they win i have a shot with my bracket and if they lose I don't care about my bracket, cause well the cheats lost. I have the cheats in the final game losing to nova. I think they cruise thru the West and while UVA should beat them if they face them again I went with the cheats for the above irrational thinking.

[CameronBlue]

Even if I'm wrong, I still get the pleasure of picturing, in my minds eye, the Tarheel players gouging their eyes out as the Bison's celebrate the historic upset. It brings back shades of 2012 all over again, when State made it the sweet 16 and Carolina didn't make it to the Final Four. :cool:

FIFY, it's a trend.

[left_hook_lacey]

I would love to see a Bucknell win. I swear MSU somehow became every sports media person's tournament favorite during their layoff week.

I don't understand it either. But I hope they're right, because I picked them and let 2 #1 seeds fall to Jason Evans. :cool:

[wilson]

Penn over Kansas, baby.

[PackMan97]

I tend to go the other way and pick the cheats to go farther than i really think they will. That way if they win i have a shot with my bracket and if they lose I don't care about my bracket, cause well the cheats lost. I have the cheats in the final game losing to nova. I think they cruise thru the West and while UVA should beat them if they face them again I went with the cheats for the above irrational thinking.

In a pool, certainly. Hedging is the way to an emotionally satisfying March. If they lose early, you don't care because the heels lost. If they win, at least you have a great shot at winning your pool and pocketing some bragging rights and/or money.

However, in a one off poll, I'm free to picture them losing without any downside.

[House P]

I would love to see a Bucknell win. I swear MSU somehow became every sports media person's tournament favorite during their layoff week.

For what it is worth (probably close to nothing), Bucknell is my pick in this poll.

I am a season ticket holder for another Patriot league school and have seen Bucknell play several times. They have lots of experience (top 3 players are Seniors), decent size for a low major (6'10" Nana Foulland), the past two Patriot League Players of the Year (Foulland and 6'7" forward Zach Thomas) and draw a lot of fouls (Thomas, is 5th in the country at fouls drawn per 40 minutes).

Most of these achievement came against pretty poor competition, but they did play a couple close games vs high majors earlier this season (2 point loss to Maryland and 8 point loss to UNC after trailing by 4 with 10 minutes remaining).

Sure, they are a longshot to beat MSU, but I think they have a chance.

[NM Duke Fan]

When I was a kid I got to see many of the great NMSU Aggie teams for free, with such players as Sam Lacey, Jimmie Collins, Charlie Chris, etc. Some of you may recall those days. I have to pick NMSU over Clemson, they have a very nice TEAM this year, about the best defense of the mid-majors so called. They really work together and have some decent talent. It would not shock me if they win a second game as well.

[Wander]

Would have voted for Davidson over KY, but don't see it as an option.

I usually start these polls with the 13 over 4s, since 12s over 5s are relatively common (wasn't there a recent year where it happened 3 out of the 4 games?).

[uh_no]

last year, the biggest KP upset was like 85%. There is no "obvious" upset in the top 4 seeds except michigan....which only is at 77%.

[DukieInKansas]

Kudos to PackMan97 (and others) for channeling UNC hatred into picking Lipscomb over UNC. :D

Ozzie's Paradigm of Optimism is rubbing off on us.

[ns7]

last year, the biggest KP upset was like 85%. There is no "obvious" upset in the top 4 seeds except michigan...which only is at 77%.

538 has the following
* Gonzaga 92%
* Wichita St 91%
* Arizona 85%
* Auburn 80%

So 43% chance of at least one of the four seeds losing based on those percentages. Probability gets above 50% that one of the top seeds will lose once you include the 1s, 2s, and 3s.

Michigan is at 89% according to 538.

[nmduke2001]

Penn over Kansas. You heard it here first.

[uh_no]

538 has the following
* Gonzaga 92%
* Wichita St 91%
* Arizona 85%
* Auburn 80%

So 43% chance of at least one of the four seeds losing based on those percentages. Probability gets above 50% that one of the top seeds will lose once you include the 1s, 2s, and 3s.

Michigan is at 89% according to 538.

yep. the problem as always is picking the right one. If you're right, great, but if you're wrong, in the end you got two games wrong instead of one :) Outside some insight, you'll almost always come out better on average by not picking the big upsets.

Bracket picking is won and lost in the final weekend....first round for show, finals for dough. Might as well take the highest expected points in the early rounds and pick for the win in the last few rounds.

[House P]

Penn over Kansas. You heard it here first.

I think everyone outside Kansas would love for you to be right. Interesting to note that KenPom gives Penn a better chance of winning (11.2%) than he gives all but one of the 15 seeds.

[WVDUKEFAN]

Davidson over Kentucky.

[wilson]

Penn over Kansas. You heard it here first.

Actually, you heard it here first: :rolleyes:


Penn over Kansas, baby.

[whereinthehellami]

RI with back to back 3s, TO OK. Should be a good ending in this one.

[whereinthehellami]

OT for RI-OK. RI had 2 good looks in the final seconds.

Now we got to wait longer for the Duke game. Hopefully whoever wins is tired for their game on sat.

[PackMan97]

It's early, but Penn up 21-11 over Kansas.

[PackMan97]

It's early, but Penn up 21-11 over Kansas.

I just had to post something dagnabit...now 21-20.

[whereinthehellami]

Rhode Island advances, hit a big 3 at the end and their free throws.

[mr. synellinden]

I just had to post something dagnabit...now 21-20.

There is an I don’t want to jinx it thread. Just saying.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

UNC G now within 5 of the Zags

update: two bad calls in row on UNCG - phantom fouls.

[PackMan97]

There is an I don’t want to jinx it thread. Just saying.

I don't want to jinx it by using the i don't want to jinx it thread.

[wobatus]

When I was a kid I got to see many of the great NMSU Aggie teams for free, with such players as Sam Lacey, Jimmie Collins, Charlie Chris, etc. Some of you may recall those days. I have to pick NMSU over Clemson, they have a very nice TEAM this year, about the best defense of the mid-majors so called. They really work together and have some decent talent. It would not shock me if they win a second game as well.

Yeah, that's a good 12/5 upset pick. Sam Lacey I remember when he was a pro for the Kansas City-Omaha Kings. He was still there when they had Birdsong, Scott Wedman and Phil Ford.

Charlie Criss, wow, that's a synapse that hasn't fired in years. He didn't make the NBA with the Hawks until he was almost 30.

[Lunchab1es]

Buffalo over Zona
Georgia State over Cincy

12/5s
New Mexico St over Clemson
S Dakota St over Ohio St

Bold second round call: Seton Hall over KU

[Wander]

Bold second round call: Seton Hall over KU

I've got Alabama over Villanova. Collin Sexton is legit.

[whereinthehellami]

What a shot by Loyola Chicago wth a second left. I'm still a perfect 6-6 on my bracket!

[juise]

My highest seed upset was Loyola. I tried to talk myself into Wroght St over Tenn last night, but (thankfully) didn’t.

[Wander]

(and seriously, multiple votes for Buffalo over Zona?)

Ahem. :D

[duke4ever19]

Congrats to CDu, Dukemega, Ian, Lunchab1es, ns7, Troublemaker and Wander!

Nice call.

[weezie]

Wow. That was something else. Not one bounce went Az way. Yikes.

[duke4ever19]

Kentucky fans should be worried.

[BigWayne]

Marshall comes through for me!
Looks like they will get their chance at WV, too.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Ahem. :D

touche.....:cool:

[wilson]

*Ahem* Turns out moonpie, stedge, and wilson are GENIUSES.