PDA

View Full Version : 1 out of 25 ESPN Experts Pick Duke



kako
03-13-2018, 08:26 PM
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22738692/espn-experts-make-final-four-national-champion-predictions-2018-ncaa-tournament

OK, I've heard it:

- Duke's freshman have all-world talent, but they are too inconsistent.
- They've tightened up their defense, but wait until the play a team with a guy who can hit from the hole in the zone. And they still have no shut down defender.
- Bagley is a black hole on O and can't play D
- Duval has no outside shot and poor decision making
- Trent's shot has left him and he doesn't pass anyway
- Carter's their most consistent player, but he's foul prone
- Allen can't play with Bagley. And he's 1 trip from getting tossed
- The starters play too many minutes. They have no real bench other than big guys who can take fouls but really don't contribute.
- There's no bench scoring.

Is all of this true? No. But is some of this true - or at least do the experts think some of this is true? Must be. A lot of the experts here have Duke in the FF but only 1 of them has them winning.

I get it to a certain extent. I wish Duke had a scoring 6th man. I wish Duval would shoot fewer jumpers. I wish the team's zone was tighter. And so on. But really - only 1 out of 25 think Duke can win? Kenpom, BPI, Sagarin, etc. all have Duke ranked top 5 or better. Five-Thirty-Eight has them with 3rd best chance to win. Vegas gives them the 2nd or 3rd best odds to win. So I just don't see why there's this lack of respect. I hesitate to call it disrespect. But it's lack of respect.

I hope K is using this as motivation. And I hope Duke sticks it to them all (except for Sean Farnham. I'm now rooting for UCLA tonight because of him).

BlueDevilBrowns
03-13-2018, 08:30 PM
The ESPN “Experts” just keep picking Michigan St every until eventually “Mr March” wins again in April.

Steven43
03-13-2018, 08:36 PM
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22738692/espn-experts-make-final-four-national-champion-predictions-2018-ncaa-tournament

OK, I've heard it:

- Duke's freshman have all-world talent, but they are too inconsistent.
- They've tightened up their defense, but wait until the play a team with a guy who can hit from the hole in the zone. And they still have no shut down defender.
- Bagley is a black hole on O and can't play D
- Duval has no outside shot and poor decision making
- Trent's shot has left him and he doesn't pass anyway
- Carter's their most consistent player, but he's foul prone
- Allen can't play with Bagley. And he's 1 trip from getting tossed
- The starters play too many minutes. They have no real bench other than big guys who can take fouls but really don't contribute.
- There's no bench scoring.
Whoa....I have to admit that everything you wrote seems fairly accurate if not spot on. I have thought each of those things at various times, but I had not put it all together the way you just did. Geez, now I’m bummed out ☹️.

brevity
03-13-2018, 08:47 PM
"Never tell me the odds." - Alden Ehrenreich (maybe)

Here's the breakdown of opinion among ESPN's remaining 27 employees.

Champion: Michigan State (9), Virginia (8), Villanova (5), Arizona (2), Duke (1), Kansas (1), Purdue (1).

South: Virginia (15), Arizona (11), Kentucky (1).
East: Villanova (21), Purdue (4), West Virginia (2).
Midwest: Michigan State (19), Duke (7), Kansas (1).
West: Gonzaga (12), Michigan (6), North Carolina (5), Xavier (4).

HereBeforeCoachK
03-13-2018, 08:49 PM
9 out of 25 pick Michigan State
8 pick UVa - pre injury I'd imagine.
5 pick Villanova

Papa John
03-13-2018, 08:52 PM
"Never tell me the odds." - Alden Ehrenreich (maybe)

I thought Han Solo said that...

ChillinDuke
03-13-2018, 08:55 PM
"Never tell me the odds." - Alden Ehrenreich (maybe)

Here's the breakdown of opinion among ESPN's remaining 27 employees.

Champion: Michigan State (9), Virginia (8), Villanova (5), Arizona (2), Duke (1), Kansas (1), Purdue (1).

South: Virginia (15), Arizona (11), Kentucky (1).
East: Villanova (21), Purdue (4), West Virginia (2).
Midwest: Michigan State (19), Duke (7), Kansas (1).
West: Gonzaga (12), Michigan (6), North Carolina (5), Xavier (4).

Oh man. I laughed so hard at this.

Then I laughed harder.

- Chillin

El_Diablo
03-13-2018, 08:59 PM
I thought Han Solo said that...

Right, so Alden Ehrenreich may say it. Or someone will give him the odds, and it will make him really sad and make him wish that people will stop telling him the odds in the future. And then Chewbacca will go "AUURRRRRRRRRRRRR!"

kako
03-13-2018, 09:00 PM
"Never tell me the odds." - Alden Ehrenreich (maybe)

Here's the breakdown of opinion among ESPN's remaining 27 employees.

Champion: Michigan State (9), Virginia (8), Villanova (5), Arizona (2), Duke (1), Kansas (1), Purdue (1).

South: Virginia (15), Arizona (11), Kentucky (1).
East: Villanova (21), Purdue (4), West Virginia (2).
Midwest: Michigan State (19), Duke (7), Kansas (1).
West: Gonzaga (12), Michigan (6), North Carolina (5), Xavier (4).

Just realized Cinci is nowhere to be found. Now that's disrespect.

duke4ever19
03-13-2018, 09:10 PM
Check out CBS. Several of their "experts" have Duke winning the title and even one that doesn't has us beating Mich. St.

ice-9
03-13-2018, 09:24 PM
Great examples of how strong peer pressure, or at least the pressure to conform, can be.

HereBeforeCoachK
03-13-2018, 09:27 PM
ESPN's 538 likes Duke's chances, relative to the field. They are given a 10% chance of winning the title, and a 29% chance of reaching the Final Four. Only Villanova (18%) and Virginia (14%) are given greater chances.

The Cheats are at 5%. X is only 3%, the lowest top seed. Kansas is at 8% and Michigan State at 7%.

Interactive brackets here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-march-madness-predictions/?addata=espn:frontpage

moonpie23
03-13-2018, 09:39 PM
clickbait.........and it's working

jv001
03-13-2018, 09:39 PM
ESPN hates Duke. I've never heard so many of their people cracking jokes about Duke. I think they have to go through a training session on how to dis Duke. Bunch of idiots. Speaking of idiots, Bill Walton was on the 24 hour bracket show and his brain is fried. I've never heard a rant that had nothing to do with the questions he was asked. Matter of fact there was a guy there with him I guess to make sure he could get back home. When Bill first saw him, he said who are you? I think he needs professional help. GoDuke!

JasonEvans
03-13-2018, 10:11 PM
Pomeroy, who is a heck of a lot smarter than ESPN's clickbait experts, sees it like this:

Villanova - 18.1% chance to win title
Virginia - 17.6%
Duke - 12.1%
Cincy - 6.6%
Purdue - 6.6%
UNC - 5.7%
Mich St - 5.2%
Gonzaga - 4.0%
Kansas - 2.9%
Michigan - 2.4%
Xavier - 2.3%
Tennessee - 2.2%

And so on...

-Jason "these are pre-Hunter injury odds. I would imagine Virginia's chances have dipped a little bit, maybe a point or two, while Cincy and Tennessee may have ticked up" Evans

HereBeforeCoachK
03-13-2018, 10:18 PM
Pomeroy, who is a heck of a lot smarter than ESPN's clickbait experts, sees it like this:

-Jason "these are pre-Hunter injury odds. I would imagine Virginia's chances have dipped a little bit, maybe a point or two, while Cincy and Tennessee may have ticked up" Evans

Jason, those Pom odds are pretty much in line with 538's odds as well. Also, I think the injury will drop UVa maybe 3-4 points on Pom. It did in a couple of others.

FerryFor50
03-13-2018, 10:19 PM
ESPN hates Duke. I've never heard so many of their people cracking jokes about Duke. I think they have to go through a training session on how to dis Duke. Bunch of idiots. Speaking of idiots, Bill Walton was on the 24 hour bracket show and his brain is fried. I've never heard a rant that had nothing to do with the questions he was asked. Matter of fact there was a guy there with him I guess to make sure he could get back home. When Bill first saw him, he said who are you? I think he needs professional help. GoDuke!

Fun fact!

ESPN, run by a UNC alum, had ZERO of 25 experts pick UNC!

Also, a lot of UVA picks. Guessing this was before the Hunter injury was announced...

subzero02
03-13-2018, 10:33 PM
That seems right... ESPN is about 96% BS these days.

AZLA
03-14-2018, 01:15 AM
9 out of 25 pick Michigan State
8 pick UVa - pre injury I'd imagine.
5 pick Villanova


They’re conflicted because of “The Duke Dilemma (https://youtu.be/Wh1L0rOaa88)” (2:40)

heyman25
03-14-2018, 01:47 AM
Went to a Duke in LA event. President Price commented we are a Dr.Jekyll /Mr. Hyde team. You don't know which one will show up. Duval is like that as well. If he could have a streak of 6 error free games and finish his drives, Duke will cut the nets. Wishful thinking. Elite 8 would be reasonable, but just beat Iona. President Price predicted 20 point margin. He is very pro athletics. He told us the first building completed was Wallace Wade Stadium.I did not know that and I am from Durham.

heyman25
03-14-2018, 01:48 AM
Fun fact!

ESPN, run by a UNC alum, had ZERO of 25 experts pick UNC!

Also, a lot of UVA picks. Guessing this was before the Hunter injury was announced...
Glad Bill Walton's Conference of Champions UCLA lost to St. Bonaventure.

budwom
03-14-2018, 09:31 AM
Glad Bill Walton's Conference of Champions UCLA lost to St. Bonaventure.

Ghastly performance by the PAC 12 this year.

HereBeforeCoachK
03-14-2018, 09:48 AM
Glad Bill Walton's Conference of Champions UCLA lost to St. Bonaventure.

Smiling Bill Walton: unabashedly a cheerleader for UCLA, and the entire conference.

Dour Jay Bilas: way over compensates for going to Duke by being anti Duke. Says little about the ACC.

Maybe ESPN could find something in between these infuriating extremes?

HereBeforeCoachK
03-14-2018, 10:14 AM
Just realized Cinci is nowhere to be found. Now that's disrespect.

So is just one vote for Kansas to make FF.....

jaytoc
03-14-2018, 11:26 AM
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22738692/espn-experts-make-final-four-national-champion-predictions-2018-ncaa-tournament

OK, I've heard it:

- Duke's freshman have all-world talent, but they are too inconsistent.
- They've tightened up their defense, but wait until the play a team with a guy who can hit from the hole in the zone. And they still have no shut down defender.
- Bagley is a black hole on O and can't play D
- Duval has no outside shot and poor decision making
- Trent's shot has left him and he doesn't pass anyway
- Carter's their most consistent player, but he's foul prone
- Allen can't play with Bagley. And he's 1 trip from getting tossed
- The starters play too many minutes. They have no real bench other than big guys who can take fouls but really don't contribute.
- There's no bench scoring.

Is all of this true? No. But is some of this true - or at least do the experts think some of this is true? Must be. A lot of the experts here have Duke in the FF but only 1 of them has them winning.

I get it to a certain extent. I wish Duke had a scoring 6th man. I wish Duval would shoot fewer jumpers. I wish the team's zone was tighter. And so on. But really - only 1 out of 25 think Duke can win? Kenpom, BPI, Sagarin, etc. all have Duke ranked top 5 or better. Five-Thirty-Eight has them with 3rd best chance to win. Vegas gives them the 2nd or 3rd best odds to win. So I just don't see why there's this lack of respect. I hesitate to call it disrespect. But it's lack of respect.

I hope K is using this as motivation. And I hope Duke sticks it to them all (except for Sean Farnham. I'm now rooting for UCLA tonight because of him).

So, I'm not sure of your logic here. Simply because 24 of 25 analysts don't predict Duke to win the tournament doesn't mean that "only 1 out of 25 think Duke can win." I'm guessing most of them would admit that Duke can win. That outcome is not the most probable in their minds, however. I'm okay with that.

Steven43
03-14-2018, 12:43 PM
Smiling Bill Walton: unabashedly a cheerleader for UCLA, and the entire conference.

Dour Jay Bilas: way over compensates for going to Duke by being anti Duke. Says little about the ACC.

Maybe ESPN could find something in between these infuriating extremes?

You forgot the part where Bilas constantly looks for any opportunity to compliment UNC. To me that is even worse than the fact that he continually goes out of his way to criticize Duke or at least not say anything positive about them. His anti-Duke act was tired ten years ago. At this point it's just beyond embarrassing that he's still doing it all these years later.

left_hook_lacey
03-14-2018, 01:16 PM
ESPN has 25 experts? That deserves its own thread.

kako
03-14-2018, 01:29 PM
You forgot the part where Bilas constantly looks for any opportunity to compliment UNC. To me that is even worse than the fact that he continually goes out of his way to criticize Duke or at least not say anything positive about them. His anti-Duke act was tired ten years ago. At this point it's just beyond embarrassing that he's still doing it all these years later.

I think it's hard not to be objective if your heart is tied to something. I know I always have to fight that when I pick brackets. Of course I want Duke to win and can always see a way of them winning. But am I objective? Hard to say. But history shows that more often than not, Duke usually does not go as far as I put them down for in my bracket. That would suggest I'm not objective, even though I want to pick a correct bracket. I'm not picking Duke this year - but is that because I'm objectively thinking at some of the issues I pointed at the start are really issues, or objectively analyzing the team matchups and finding Duke wanting... or is it because I know I usually pick Duke to go too far out of my love for the program? It's probably the latter... but like I said, it's hard to say. I do know if Duke wins, I could give a Roy about how I did in my bracket.

So I don't know Bilas*, but I would think he's trying to compensate. But it's got to be hard to do so when you love a program, a coach, a school. So I cut him some slack. I'd rather see an overcompensating Bilas than a Capel, Haywood, Smith, Davis or any of the other Carolina geeks out there.

* - I was in school when Bilas went there. One day in the Rat (dining place in the Bryan Center), he and Alarie were sitting a public table, eating. When they were finished, they got up and didn't take their trays and garbage to the trash cans. They just left it on the table for others to clean up. Seemed like total entitlement to me at the time. I write this not to knock him for something that happened 30 years ago when he was a kid (we all did stuff we regret when we were younger), but to point out that I'm absolutely not an unabashed supporter of his.

9F

GeneBanksManCrush
03-14-2018, 01:35 PM
Pretty much what I'd expect from what used to be a sports channel but now is a politics channel.

TheBrianZoubekExperience
03-14-2018, 01:38 PM
Am I the only one reading this post like the Jason Kelce speech?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puLrHeqd4Rg

BEFORE THE TOURNAMENT SOME CLOWNS ON ESPN SAID WE HAD NO CHANCE!!!!


http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22738692/espn-experts-make-final-four-national-champion-predictions-2018-ncaa-tournament

OK, I've heard it:

- Duke's freshman have all-world talent, but they are too inconsistent.
- They've tightened up their defense, but wait until the play a team with a guy who can hit from the hole in the zone. And they still have no shut down defender.
- Bagley is a black hole on O and can't play D
- Duval has no outside shot and poor decision making
- Trent's shot has left him and he doesn't pass anyway
- Carter's their most consistent player, but he's foul prone
- Allen can't play with Bagley. And he's 1 trip from getting tossed
- The starters play too many minutes. They have no real bench other than big guys who can take fouls but really don't contribute.
- There's no bench scoring.

Is all of this true? No. But is some of this true - or at least do the experts think some of this is true? Must be. A lot of the experts here have Duke in the FF but only 1 of them has them winning.

I get it to a certain extent. I wish Duke had a scoring 6th man. I wish Duval would shoot fewer jumpers. I wish the team's zone was tighter. And so on. But really - only 1 out of 25 think Duke can win? Kenpom, BPI, Sagarin, etc. all have Duke ranked top 5 or better. Five-Thirty-Eight has them with 3rd best chance to win. Vegas gives them the 2nd or 3rd best odds to win. So I just don't see why there's this lack of respect. I hesitate to call it disrespect. But it's lack of respect.

I hope K is using this as motivation. And I hope Duke sticks it to them all (except for Sean Farnham. I'm now rooting for UCLA tonight because of him).

barjwr
03-14-2018, 03:27 PM
Glad Bill Walton's Conference of Champions UCLA lost to St. Bonaventure.

I would hope that at some point someone would call him on that "conference of champions" nonsense. Since the field expanded to 64 teams, the PAC-10/12 has won exactly two national championships in men's basketball, and the most recent one was over 20 years ago. And, the only way to get the conference up to 5 total schools that have won the NCAAs is to go back to before World War II (besides UCLA and Arizona, Cal won in 1959; before that, Oregon and Stanford won in 1939 and 1942, respectively).

luvdahops
03-14-2018, 03:31 PM
"Never tell me the odds." - Alden Ehrenreich (maybe)

Here's the breakdown of opinion among ESPN's remaining 27 employees.

Champion: Michigan State (9), Virginia (8), Villanova (5), Arizona (2), Duke (1), Kansas (1), Purdue (1).

South: Virginia (15), Arizona (11), Kentucky (1).
East: Villanova (21), Purdue (4), West Virginia (2).
Midwest: Michigan State (19), Duke (7), Kansas (1).
West: Gonzaga (12), Michigan (6), North Carolina (5), Xavier (4).

I find this hilarious, given (as noted in another thread):

-Izzo does not believe his team was underseeded, and considers them to have a low basketball IQ collectively

-None of the 4 Chicago Tribune CBB beat writers - who are generally Big 10 homers - picked MSU for the Final Four (3 picked Duke, 1 Kansas)

To me, this illustrates the difference between merely having a bully pulpit, which ESPN undoubtedly does, and actually having real expertise (the extent of the ESPN crew's is debatable IMHO). Would encourage anyone who subscribes to the Athletic (serious sportswriters not bound by the need for schtick/persona) to read Seth Davis's tourney overview piece. He comes to some different conclusions...

DangerDevil
03-14-2018, 04:26 PM
SI has us ranked as the 2nd most likely team to win the big dance behind Villanova and has some pretty reasonable and nice things to say about our team:

"The biggest question facing the Blue Devils for much of the season was whether they would be able to defend well enough to make a deep run in the NCAAs. Following a stunning loss to St. John’s at Madison Square Garden in early February, they were ranked 69th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency. They’ve since committed to a zone scheme and have moved up to seventh in that same metric. As the defense has perked up, the offense has remained potent. It’s not unreasonable to argue that Duke has a higher ceiling than any other team in the country. If it reaches that ceiling in the coming weeks, it probably won’t lose."



https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/03/14/ncaa-tournament-march-madness-best-teams-title-contenders