State of the team entering the NCAA Tournament

[elvis14]

This basketball season has been very interesting and filled with ups and downs. I think the common belief is that when you play a bunch of freshman you are going to have more inconsistency. We play a bunch of freshman. All season long the one thing that kept my head up after losses was the thought that we are young, very talented and that we could get it together and peak in March.

It's March. What would you say is the state of the team? Are we where you thought we would be? Are we where we want to be?

Just curious about your thoughts as we get ready to play the tournament. One thing I'm trying real hard to avoid is having too much recency bias after we played so badly in our last game (gift given).

[flyingdutchdevil]

This basketball season has been very interesting and filled with ups and downs. I think the common belief is that when you play a bunch of freshman you are going to have more inconsistency. We play a bunch of freshman. All season long the one thing that kept my head up after losses was the thought that we are young, very talented and that we could get it together and peak in March.

It's March. What would you say is the state of the team? Are we where you thought we would be? Are we where we want to be?

Just curious about your thoughts as we get ready to play the tournament. One thing I'm trying real hard to avoid is having too much recency bias after we played so badly in our last game (gift given).

Really good on defense, but maddeningly inconsistent on offense.

No doubt we have the ability to win it all with our talent and our defense. But a game filled with turnovers, a game filled with 2-15 shooting from 3, a game with ~50% FT shooting could easily do us in.

I feel about as good as I did last year, which is to say cautiously optimistic. No one saw USC coming. I hope this team takes a brief look at Iona and then focuses on the second round game (and no. We're not losing to Iona). At least in the S16 we know that the competition will be fierce.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I think the Devils may be on the verge of defining the secret sauce....just not quite there yet.

I think our best recipe, in general, is to extend the zone, and let Trevon have a good amount of the point guard duties on O. I also think Tre, and the whole team, plays better on offense when they are trapping and pressing out of the zone. What they found the last 17 minutes of the NC game in Durham seems to be that recipe. This depends on Trevon's ankle health of course.

And there are times when a switch in D might be good - for example, I don't think we would want to extend the zone against Young and Oklahoma, if we play them.

I also like some of Troublemaker's thoughts vis a vis the lob passes, and so on.

[cato]

Just about one year ago, I was very confident that the Duke team had pulled together after the ACC tourney run. Three years ago, I was concerned after a mixed performance in the ACC tourney — one great defensive game; one less so.

Long story, short: I will tell you in 1 to 6 games.

[rsvman]

I think it kind of depends on a couple of things. First is physical health. If Carter and Duval are healthy, and nobody else gets sick or injured, that would go a long way.

Second is mental health. If the close losses weigh heavily on their minds, the scenario could repeat itself. If they do not, it's obviously better. I hope Grayson is in a good place; butt-gate was a minor incident, but I am hoping it wasn't subtly disclosing deeper issues. We need him to be positive and not frustrated going into the tournament.

[redick4pres]

This basketball season has been very interesting and filled with ups and downs. I think the common belief is that when you play a bunch of freshman you are going to have more inconsistency. We play a bunch of freshman. All season long the one thing that kept my head up after losses was the thought that we are young, very talented and that we could get it together and peak in March.

It's March. What would you say is the state of the team? Are we where you thought we would be? Are we where we want to be?

Just curious about your thoughts as we get ready to play the tournament. One thing I'm trying real hard to avoid is having too much recency bias after we played so badly in our last game (gift given).

My belief is that we're still improving in certain areas. Our defense will be hard to beat if we continue to commit to it like we have the last few weeks. I think the biggest things in play for us on offense are, of course, the health of both Tricky and Wendell. If both can get healed up this week before Thursday, I also agree that we found something those last few minutes of the second UNLV-CH game. I think Grayson and Gary are going to shoot their typical percentage in most of our tournament games, but if Wendell is healthy, he should eat against any defense who tries to double and deny MBIII. I believe the Blue Unicorn (MBIII) is going to show out over the next few weeks.

Even though we are the more talented and probably better team, I don't find UNLV-CH to be a great matchup for us this season because of the make up of our team and the defense we're having to employ. But most teams don't have 4 shooters that can make the zone pay as much as the Targoats do. Subtract some of our troubles against them and I think we're sitting solid IF we're healthy.

And for the record, for those who are predicting a 4th round between us and the Targoats, I feel good about a 4th game against them because I believe K will very much outcoach Ole Roy in a 4th matchup. But that's waaaaaay down the road and I prefer to have the 4-team mini tournament focus that Coach K employs.

[kAzE]

Really good on defense, but maddeningly inconsistent on offense.

No doubt we have the ability to win it all with our talent and our defense. But a game filled with turnovers, a game filled with 2-15 shooting from 3, a game with ~50% FT shooting could easily do us in.

I feel about as good as I did last year, which is to say cautiously optimistic. No one saw USC coming. I hope this team takes a brief look at Iona and then focuses on the second round game (and no. We're not losing to Iona). At least in the S16 we know that the competition will be fierce.

We're better than last year's team, IMO. As poorly as we played on offense in that UNC loss, this defense is legit, and that's our ticket to a deep postseason run. Last year's team had only started to figure things out defensively during that magical ACC tournament run, and even at it's best, was still very leaky on the perimeter. This team has been a top 10 defense since the middle of February, with our only slight weakness being defensive rebounding.

The offensive struggles of late are due to a bunch of factors: Gary Trent's mini shooting slump, free throw shooting, Tre Duval's injury (for the UNC game in particular), and overall extremely poor ball security, but especially on post entry passes. If I had to throw out a guess on the percentage of passes in to the post that became a turnover for this team, it's probably between 30 and 40%. Those turnovers have been the major difference in just about all of our losses.

How is Tre's ankle? Have there been any updates on his condition? I've said this since the beginning: Tre Duval is the key to this team. When he plays like he did in the 2nd half vs. UNC in Cameron, we're unbeatable.

[uh_no]

turnovers. literally the only thing i'm not happy with.

[jv001]

How many years have we been concerned about the health of one or more of our players going into the NCAAT. It seems like this is a Duke rite. This year is no exception with Trevon and Wendell slowed down by late season injuries. We have more depth in the front court, so we may be able to withstand Wendell being slowed down but with not much depth on the perimeter, Trevon's injury hurts us more. Duval is so important to our defense at the top and if he's not able to go at close to 100%, we could be in trouble against the really good teams. We may be able to get by Iona but after that we have some teams that could give Duke trouble. Especially RI who has a defense that causes turnovers. So, I'll say the state of the team depends on health. GoDuke!

[OldPhiKap]

I'd say the state of the team entering the tournament is likely Pennsylvania.


Other than that, if we're healthy we're good.

[Billy Dat]

I feel really good about the team because our defense has become elite.

The recent down-tick on offense isn't great, but we still have a really potent offense.

I do wish we had more of an established rotation with bench players K was comfortable using in the second half, and, in turn, those players were comfortable playing during those stretches of the game. K's security blanket is to ride our starters into the ground, which I think makes us vulnerable in a few ways.

Injury wise, Wendell looked ok to me in his 30 minutes against UNC in the ACC semis. We'll see about Trevon.

Overall, we enter March with a Top 10 defense which has not happened in years. Couple that with our typical top 10 offense and we should all be feeling really good.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

turnovers. literally the only thing i'm not happy with.

This is the correct answer.

We can fight through shooting slumps, defensive lapses, a few batted around rebounds, and other short defects in our game - IF we aren't giving the ball to the other team on the regular.

If we can keep our heads on offense and not hand the ball to the other team several times during the game, we will beat almost anyone. It is mind-numbing when we are making bad passes and trying to force the ball where it doesn't need to go, offering our opponent extra possessions.

[kAzE]

turnovers. literally the only thing i'm not happy with.

I would add defensive rebounding. If we grab a defensive rebound between the 4:00 minute mark and 2:00 mark of the last UNC game, we might win that game. They basically dribbled out 2 minutes off the game clock in one possession because they got 3 offensive boards.

[Ian]

The defense, which has struggled during the 1st half of the season, has turned into a strength.

The offense, which dominated early in the season, has been studied and analysis by the opposition and some weaknesses have been identified. Team that are good enough to excute defensively to take advantage of those weaknesses have slowed down Duke's offense. While some of our turnovers are the careless "what was that" variety, most of them are the result of defenses crowding and denying the entry pass to the post, and we are forcing passes into heavily defended areas which are a recipe for them being deflected or intercepted.

The key for Duke now is to adjust to the adjustment, and come up with some new wrinkles on offense to counter these new defensive schemes.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I would add defensive rebounding. If we grab a defensive rebound between the 4:00 minute mark and 2:00 mark of the last UNC game, we might win that game. They basically dribbled out 2 minutes off the game clock in one possession because they got 3 offensive boards.

That was maddening. And completely not surprising. But, if we didn't throw the ball away so many times earlier in the game, it is moot.

If we are careful with the ball, we win games.

[millerecu]

Video up on Duke Men's Basketball Facebook page with everyone practicing. Duval and Carter included.

[CDu]

We're better than last year's team, IMO. As poorly as we played on offense in that UNC loss, this defense is legit, and that's our ticket to a deep postseason run. Last year's team had only started to figure things out defensively during that magical ACC tournament run, and even at it's best, was still very leaky on the perimeter. This team has been a top 10 defense since the middle of February, with our only slight weakness being defensive rebounding.

The offensive struggles of late are due to a bunch of factors: Gary Trent's mini shooting slump, free throw shooting, Tre Duval's injury (for the UNC game in particular), and overall extremely poor ball security, but especially on post entry passes. If I had to throw out a guess on the percentage of passes in to the post that became a turnover for this team, it's probably between 30 and 40%. Those turnovers have been the major difference in just about all of our losses.

How is Tre's ankle? Have there been any updates on his condition? I've said this since the beginning: Tre Duval is the key to this team. When he plays like he did in the 2nd half vs. UNC in Cameron, we're unbeatable.

Yep. Worth noting that we essentially lost the game on Friday while Duval was out. We were outscored 14-2 in the 4:18 that he was on the bench. The rest of the time, we outscored them 67-60. Duval was one of the few guys who had a positive +/- in that game. For all the talk about why we stuck with Duval in that game? Because we were winning when he was on the floor, and losing when he wasn't. And that was against a 2 seed, and with a hobbled Duval having one of his worst games of the season.

If Duval is healthy, we are VERY hard to beat. We can still lose, but the floor is very high. If we are healthy, it basically takes us playing about as poorly as we can offensively to lose to all but the very best teams.

[jv001]

That was maddening. And completely not surprising. But, if we didn't throw the ball away so many times earlier in the game, it is moot.

If we are careful with the ball, we win games.

I agree with Mtn.Devil. If we don't turn the ball over, we are ok. But as Troublemaker has said, a lot of our turnovers come from force feeding the post players when they are well guarded. It's happened over and over again. Teams have figured us out. I want to see the coaching staff run different sets on offense. I know it's late in the season and some things cannot be changed such as FT shooting, bench players suddenly playing like ALL ACC players, etc. But the offense can be tweaked. One thing I look for our opponents to do is guard Trevon closely and see if his ankle is close to 100%. If it's not, I hope Trevon does not try to do it all himself. He needs to make good decisions. That goes for Grayson as well. GoDuke!

[jv001]

Video up on Duke Men's Basketball Facebook page with everyone practicing. Duval and Carter included.

Duval going hard in practice?? GoDuke!

[millerecu]

Did not seem to be holding back. At one point Trent Jr. bear hugged him and tossed him in a 3 point shooting line (I am guessing he made it). All smiles!



Duval going hard in practice?? GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

I would add defensive rebounding. If we grab a defensive rebound between the 4:00 minute mark and 2:00 mark of the last UNC game, we might win that game. They basically dribbled out 2 minutes off the game clock in one possession because they got 3 offensive boards.

You're right, but UNC was aided by the long rebounds occasioned by their "bricks."

[luvdahops]

You're right, but UNC was aided by the long rebounds occasioned by their "bricks."

Fair point, though I would note that a number of those long offensive rebounds were 50/50 balls that they simply outfought us for.

[rsvman]

I have also noticed the offense getting stagnant because of a lot of dribbling and/or handing off the ball at the top, without much other movement. In these times, there are also very few assists. When we score out of this approach, it is usually because Gary Trent Jr drives into the lane and hits a fall away jumper or something. I just hate it when I see us settling into this "no offense" offense.

Move the ball, move without the ball, try to make the defense at least adjust a little. It's a bit like the old-school "iso" offense that a lot of NBA teams used to run. When we run this type of "offense" we are truly not very good. On the other hand, when we run offense more like the Warriors, we are much more impressive.

[CDu]

Fair point, though I would note that a number of those long offensive rebounds were 50/50 balls that they simply outfought us for.

Definitely true, though worth noting that in those late offensive rebounds, we were a bit unlucky. A couple of times we actually had 2 guys in position, but one of the two swatted it away from the other and to a UNC guy. That doesn’t explain the other 15-16 examples, but it does help explain the costly ones in the closing minutes.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Definitely true, though worth noting that in those late offensive rebounds, we were a bit unlucky. A couple of times we actually had 2 guys in position, but one of the two swatted it away from the other and to a UNC guy. That doesn’t explain the other 15-16 examples, but it does help explain the costly ones in the closing minutes.

Exactly my observation as well.....out hustled a bit, and a bit unlucky when we did hustle, and were in position.

[luvdahops]

I think the Devils may be on the verge of defining the secret sauce...just not quite there yet.

I think our best recipe, in general, is to extend the zone, and let Trevon have a good amount of the point guard duties on O. I also think Tre, and the whole team, plays better on offense when they are trapping and pressing out of the zone. What they found the last 17 minutes of the NC game in Durham seems to be that recipe. This depends on Trevon's ankle health of course.

And there are times when a switch in D might be good - for example, I don't think we would want to extend the zone against Young and Oklahoma, if we play them.

I also like some of Troublemaker's thoughts vis a vis the lob passes, and so on.

I tend to share your perspective, particularly on the offense. I think we are at our best when Trevon is penetrating and either 1) dumping it off to a big 2) kicking it out to Allen, Trent or O'Connell or 3) finishing himself if help doesn't come. I think the tendency to force the ball into the low post and/or having both bigs clog the paint has been a big factor in our recent (though relative) offensive decline, as opponents have figured out how to defend that approach better, and our guards have struggled with entry passes and getting clean looks other than 3s.

[luvdahops]

Definitely true, though worth noting that in those late offensive rebounds, we were a bit unlucky. A couple of times we actually had 2 guys in position, but one of the two swatted it away from the other and to a UNC guy. That doesn’t explain the other 15-16 examples, but it does help explain the costly ones in the closing minutes.

Yeah, my comment was more on a whole game basis, rather than that late stretch.

[weezie]

From Jason Gay's Wall Street Journal column today, "5. The Duke people in the office are quiet. I don’t know exactly what that means. They’re just quiet. I’m not complaining."

Yep, that about sums it up.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Since there are thankfully no vigil threads, I wasn’t sure where to look... has there been any update on Wendell’s and Trevon’s lower extremity health?

[jv001]

You're right, but UNC was aided by the long rebounds occasioned by their "bricks."

That and an assist off one of their player's butt. :cool: Just their night. GoDuke!

[WVDUKEFAN]

I think this team goes as deep as Tre takes it. When they are clicking on all five cylinders, they are 20 points better than anyone in the country.

[jv001]

I think this team goes as deep as Tre takes it. When they are clicking on all five cylinders, they are 20 points better than anyone in the country.

But the thing is, Trevon doesn't have to take the team to victory. He just needs to play under control on offense and out of control on defense. Just kidding about defense. I just like to see him creating havoc on defense. If he drives the lane when it's open and makes the shot or the pass that leads to a basket, then that's all we need from Trevon. He's the key to the game in my estimation. GoDuke!

[Saratoga2]

This basketball season has been very interesting and filled with ups and downs. I think the common belief is that when you play a bunch of freshman you are going to have more inconsistency. We play a bunch of freshman. All season long the one thing that kept my head up after losses was the thought that we are young, very talented and that we could get it together and peak in March.

It's March. What would you say is the state of the team? Are we where you thought we would be? Are we where we want to be?

Just curious about your thoughts as we get ready to play the tournament. One thing I'm trying real hard to avoid is having too much recency bias after we played so badly in our last game (gift given).

The reality is this team consists of a senior and the rest are nearly sophomores and have gotten a lot of experience over 30 games. The defense has improved with the zone and when we trap and press we are better, but with a shortage of perimeter players, how many minutes a game can we exert the kind of energy required to put that pressure on? While our zone is an improvement, UNC exploited it from the interior as our second big was not reacting quickly enough to help inside. Can that be improved before Thursday or more likely Saturday when we will face a more difficult opponent.

Our offense was well covered in threads earlier. Our ball handlers and play makers, including our senior Grayson, has been guilty of carelessly turning the ball over trying to force the ball inside, through getting called for charges or just plain putting themselves in a position to throw the ball away. Trying to avoid the forced passes to the interior and running a more UVA type offense with double screens to our 3 point shooters (they have to move without the ball for that) sounds like a reasonable improvement. Lets see what they do about TO's in the Iona game.

Why were we so flat in the first 3/4 of the UNC game? Hard not to notice UNC played harder and faster to the ball than we did. What will be needed to light a fire under our players? We have a lot of talent and potential but at some point they need convert that potential and to play smart and hard for 40 minutes. Our fate, if we are healthy, remains with us making good decisions and playing hard and possibly with a better game plan.

Our end of game decision making also needs to improve. During the VT game, and again against UNC, decisions made were real head scratchers. I assume that coach K didn't want the ball thrown into a poor FT shooter against VT. Also, I find it difficult he thought the final attempt made by Grayson against UNC was the best choice. We need a coach on the floor (PG) that thinks the game and makes good decisions. Personnaly I think Gary is the best at thinking the game, but then he isn't the PG. Where is Jon Scheyer when we need him?

[devildeac]

Since there are thankfully no vigil threads, I wasn’t sure where to look... has there been any update on Wendell’s and Trevon’s lower extremity health?

I think the pre-game thread references/links some videos from practice that show them practicing.

[bluenorth]

Our end of game decision making also needs to improve. During the VT game, and again against UNC, decisions made were real head scratchers. I assume that coach K didn't want the ball thrown into a poor FT shooter against VT. Also, I find it difficult he thought the final attempt made by Grayson against UNC was the best choice. We need a coach on the floor (PG) that thinks the game and makes good decisions. Personnaly I think Gary is the best at thinking the game, but then he isn't the PG. Where is Jon Scheyer when we need him?

This would be one of my main concerns (the other being the tendency to commit way too many turnovers). While hopefully it won't be a worry against Iona, closing out tight games is vital, and especially so in the tournament. Hopefully all of the learning has been done, and now comes the result of the players' basketball educations.

[COYS]

turnovers. literally the only thing i'm not happy with.

You can say this again (and again and again and again). Our defense has been the best in the country over the past 10 games. Our offense has been inconsistent over that same span mostly because of turnovers. If we can just make sure we get a shot on almost every possession, we will be in GREAT shape. So many of our turnovers have been unforced, too. If we are able to be just a little bit smarter with the ball, we will have the best offense in the country to go along with our recently elite defense. We can overcome a cold night from the field with our defense and offensive rebounding as long as we make sure we end every possession with a shot.

[uh_no]

I would add defensive rebounding. If we grab a defensive rebound between the 4:00 minute mark and 2:00 mark of the last UNC game, we might win that game. They basically dribbled out 2 minutes off the game clock in one possession because they got 3 offensive boards.

I didn't for one reason:

Say your any team scores X ppp in a normal halfcourt where they take a shot and don't get rebound

offensive rebound just gives them another chance to hit X, which you might consider as equivalent to an offensive possession of OURs which resulted in 0 points.
Turnover gives us a 0 on offense also, but the opponents chances of scoring are much much higher....Earlier in the year, duke was giving X+1 for every turnover. Teams were averaging one more point per possession that came off a turnover than off FGA.

So anyway, I'm worried about the turnovers since they are far more negatively impactful than offensive boards.

[CDu]

Our end of game decision making also needs to improve. During the VT game, and again against UNC, decisions made were real head scratchers. I assume that coach K didn't want the ball thrown into a poor FT shooter against VT. Also, I find it difficult he thought the final attempt made by Grayson against UNC was the best choice. We need a coach on the floor (PG) that thinks the game and makes good decisions. Personnaly I think Gary is the best at thinking the game, but then he isn't the PG. Where is Jon Scheyer when we need him?

The problem with Trent is that he isn’t a great dribbler and isn’t a passer at all. But you’re right: neither Duval nor Allen are great decisionmakers with the ball. If we have an Achilles heel, it is that. Well, that and (as we saw Friday) no depth behind Duval.

[elvis14]

This basketball season has been very interesting and filled with ups and downs. I think the common belief is that when you play a bunch of freshman you are going to have more inconsistency. We play a bunch of freshman. All season long the one thing that kept my head up after losses was the thought that we are young, very talented and that we could get it together and peak in March.

It's March. What would you say is the state of the team? Are we where you thought we would be? Are we where we want to be?

Just curious about your thoughts as we get ready to play the tournament. One thing I'm trying real hard to avoid is having too much recency bias after we played so badly in our last game (gift given).

So I posted the questions earlier but didn't have time to answer them myself. At this point everything I'm thinking has probably already been said and probably better than I can say it. Here are a few of my thoughts:


I'm still pissed off as a wet cat about the loss to UNCheat last week. If Duval doesn't get hurt we win that game. Yes, I'm aware that he had a slow start but he's had quite a few slow starts and strong finishes. I wanted another crack at UVa.
Like others, I am happy that our defense has been playing so well. I really didn't think we could play a zone and succeed. Glad I was wrong and I hope we continue to play well.
I'm perplexed by our offensive struggles to a point. I say to a point because it could simply be that we aren't hitting enough 3's. Other than the obvious, which is turnovers. We need to play up to our talent level.
We still have 3 weeks in which to improve. I do like where we are right now. If we ignore the Cheater game (where we just didn't show up), we have been good and getting better for a few weeks. So I think we are good enough right now to survive this first weekend (as long as we play decent). The next two weekends, we need to get better each week to make a real run.
Having said that, I'll admit that we are not where I thought we'd be (which is why I say we need to continue to improve).
Moving Grayson to PG stabilized the offense for a while. Having a different type of PG, like Duval, to be able to hand the ball to and change things up is a great thing (think 2nd half of the 2nd Cheater game). We need Grayson to play a little better.
I still feel like we need to mix some of the offense we played when MBIII was out with what we can do with MBIII.
These first two games, I want to crush our opponents. We seem too good at giving back leads.
And last but not least, I hope our health is OK for the next couple of weeks.

[ChrisP]

You can say this again (and again and again and again). Our defense has been the best in the country over the past 10 games. Our offense has been inconsistent over that same span mostly because of turnovers. If we can just make sure we get a shot on almost every possession, we will be in GREAT shape. So many of our turnovers have been unforced, too. If we are able to be just a little bit smarter with the ball, we will have the best offense in the country to go along with our recently elite defense. We can overcome a cold night from the field with our defense and offensive rebounding as long as we make sure we end every possession with a shot.

I agree...mostly. I actually think we can still win if we have no more than 12 TO'S per game. Obviously, fewer is even better and improves our odds of winning but I think 12 is the magic # for TO's. Mind you, this is assuming we continue our elite defense and don't give up more than about 15 O boards per game.

[Saratoga2]

Most Due fans, myself included, believe we have the size, skill, depth and athleticism to compete with anyone we face and have a significant advantage over most opponents. Our zone defense is good and could even be better and when we t4rap and press we can further reduce the other teams opportunity to score. when we play hard we will be difficult to beat.

Perhaps it is mundane to talk about how our offense must play to avoid being upset in an early round and to remain competitive against our best opponents. The fundamental point is we need to get good quality, high percentage shots every time we possess the ball or get fouled. What is a good quality shot?

1. One taken from near the 3 point line or in.
2. One taken by a high percentage shooter from the location on the floor.
3. One taken that is not heavily contested. (not through a double team or with a person right in the shooters face)
4. One taken in rhythm
5. One taken with rebounders with a chance of getting missed shots
6. On steals, only go to the basket when we have a numbers advantage or are ahead of the defender.

To get these quality shots, we first need to inbound the ball and get it up the court even when under some pressure or against a trap. We need to space our players coming up the floor so there is always a good passing lane. One thing we should not do is try for the spectacular long pass that has a low percentage success rate. Also, long cross court passes are often risky. Make passes that have a low % of being picked off. We win by making good decisions with the ball.

These are pretty fundamental points but ones which we have continually made mistakes. No one expects perfection, but if our players keep the basics in mind, they will win.

[Spanarkel]

Most Due fans, myself included, believe we have the size, skill, depth and athleticism to compete with anyone we face and have a significant advantage over most opponents. Our zone defense is good and could even be better and when we t4rap and press we can further reduce the other teams opportunity to score. when we play hard we will be difficult to beat.

Perhaps it is mundane to talk about how our offense must play to avoid being upset in an early round and to remain competitive against our best opponents. The fundamental point is we need to get good quality, high percentage shots every time we possess the ball or get fouled. What is a good quality shot?

1. One taken from near the 3 point line or in.
2. One taken by a high percentage shooter from the location on the floor.
3. One taken that is not heavily contested. (not through a double team or with a person right in the shooters face)
4. One taken in rhythm
5. One taken with rebounders with a chance of getting missed shots
6. On steals, only go to the basket when we have a numbers advantage or are ahead of the defender.

To get these quality shots, we first need to inbound the ball and get it up the court even when under some pressure or against a trap. We need to space our players coming up the floor so there is always a good passing lane. One thing we should not do is try for the spectacular long pass that has a low percentage success rate. Also, long cross court passes are often risky. Make passes that have a low % of being picked off. We win by making good decisions with the ball.

These are pretty fundamental points but ones which we have continually made mistakes. No one expects perfection, but if our players keep the basics in mind, they will win.

Agree. The great batsman Rogers Hornsby, when asked about his approach to hitting, said the key thing was to "get a good ball to hit."

[jv001]

Most Due fans, myself included, believe we have the size, skill, depth and athleticism to compete with anyone we face and have a significant advantage over most opponents. Our zone defense is good and could even be better and when we t4rap and press we can further reduce the other teams opportunity to score. when we play hard we will be difficult to beat.

Perhaps it is mundane to talk about how our offense must play to avoid being upset in an early round and to remain competitive against our best opponents. The fundamental point is we need to get good quality, high percentage shots every time we possess the ball or get fouled. What is a good quality shot?

1. One taken from near the 3 point line or in.
2. One taken by a high percentage shooter from the location on the floor.
3. One taken that is not heavily contested. (not through a double team or with a person right in the shooters face)
4. One taken in rhythm
5. One taken with rebounders with a chance of getting missed shots
6. On steals, only go to the basket when we have a numbers advantage or are ahead of the defender.

To get these quality shots, we first need to inbound the ball and get it up the court even when under some pressure or against a trap. We need to space our players coming up the floor so there is always a good passing lane. One thing we should not do is try for the spectacular long pass that has a low percentage success rate. Also, long cross court passes are often risky. Make passes that have a low % of being picked off. We win by making good decisions with the ball.

These are pretty fundamental points but ones which we have continually made mistakes. No one expects perfection, but if our players keep the basics in mind, they will win.

I agree on your assessment of our offense. One thing comes to mind regarding shots taken in our half court set. We sometimes get caught up in dribbling the air out of the ball around the perimeter. I know we've discussed this way too many times but we seem so intent in passing the ball down low that we let the shot clock run down to near zero and have to force a pass or force a shot. GET IN AN OFFENSIVE SET AS SOON AS THE BALL GET'S ACROSS THE TEN SECOND LINE. If the low post men are covered, go to another set. This team has so much talent on offense it should not have to struggle to score. I hate to say it, but it looks like some of this is on the coaching staff. Ok, now let me have it. I'm a big boy. :cool::cool:GoDuke!

[House G]

Of course we have the talent to run the table. This Duke team, which has been brilliant at times, is wildly inconsistent. I’m sure part of this equation is the OAD issue. No matter how great your players are, there is no substitute for upper classmen that have played together for awhile (eg the cheats). And there are a whole bunch of teams in the tournament that fit this description. With regard to fundamentals, if we haven’t learned a lot of these by now, its probably too late. There are quite a few things you could point to, including poor positioning, not boxing out, not rotating or helping out, poor shot selection, poor entry passing, missed FTs, and so on. I’m not sure why some of these things persist—I never was very tall but I sure as hell understood how to box out (I’m guessing 6’11” guys coming out of high school never had to do this). I’m sure a lot of these things improve with time and experience, but time has run out. Our finals start tomorrow. And then there is the great paradox Duvall. I tend to agree that how he plays will determine how far we go. But how frustrating has he been to watch this year? I cringe when he dribbles, when he drives, when he shoots a three, and when he is at the FT line. But with the bad comes the good—a rarely seen (in college) combination of speed, quickness, and strength, a ball hawk, a disruptor, a slasher, a guy who has the ability to break down most defenses. So it will be interesting to see which team shows up. What are the chances we win our next 6 games? Probably as good as anyone else’s. If Duke somehow manages to win this thing, IMO it would be one of Coach K’s better performances.

[budwom]

tough to assess "the state of the team" without knowing Duval's health. We need two things very badly, for both offensive and defensive purposes: 1) a truly healthy Duval, and 2) a Duval with solid judgment and limited turnovers. With both of those we'll be a major force. Without them, disappointment looms.

[elvis14]

tough to assess "the state of the team" without knowing Duval's health. We need two things very badly, for both offensive and defensive purposes: 1) a truly healthy Duval, and 2) a Duval with solid judgment and limited turnovers. With both of those we'll be a major force. Without them, disappointment looms.

Good point budworm. One thing that's interesting is that this team is pretty flexible and can make adjustments to each team it plays. Against the Cheaters, it was Duval's ability to blow past their defenders and break down their defense that gave us an edge to win G2 and outscore them when Duval was on the court in G3. Other teams will have different weaknesses and what Duval brings may not be needed the way it was last week. That's why we have had some great wins this year even though an important player like Duval or GA have an off game. Some for when MBIII was out. I think having a healthy Duval is important for us to reach our peak and I think he is important to the success of our zone and our trap. At the same time each game there will be a player or two who are most important for that game depending on the opponent and how those 1-2 players perform will determine our success.

[Jeffrey]

Not thrilled about our probable matchups. Would strongly prefer UNC's probable matchups of Michigan and Xavier.

OTOH, I think we can truly beat any team and are more balanced than most of our past teams. I think we are the second best team (behind UVA) in the tournament. We will play next weekend and I'm hoping we get very lucky and Michigan State does not.

[budwom]

Not thrilled about our probable matchups. Would strongly prefer UNC's probable matchups of Michigan and Xavier.

OTOH, I think we can truly beat any team and are more balanced than most of our past teams. I think we are the second best team (behind UVA) in the tournament. We will play next weekend and I'm hoping we get very lucky and Michigan State does not.

Michigan has looked very good to me of late....they're disciplined and won't be an easy out....I'm OK with who we have...

[jv001]

Michigan has looked very good to me of late...they're disciplined and won't be an easy out...I'm OK with who we have...

And the Wolverines have beaten the Spartans twice this season. I'll take our chances with Michigan State if we get that far. We've beaten them once with Bagley out for most of the game. GoDuke!

[Jeffrey]

Michigan has looked very good to me of late...they're disciplined and won't be an easy out...I'm OK with who we have...

IMO, winning the Regional Championship Game is frequently the toughest tournament game and, if they survive, I'd much rather face Xavier than Kansas.

[flyingdutchdevil]

IMO, winning the Regional Championship Game is frequently the toughest tournament game and, if they survive, I'd much rather face Xavier than Kansas.

Sure, but I'd rather face Kansas than Nova or UVA.

[Jeffrey]

Sure, but I'd rather face Kansas than Nova or UVA.

Agreed, which is why I think the Cheaters (with an inferior season) got the best placement as a 2 seed. IMO, we are the top ranked 2 seed and should be in that spot (facing the weakest 1 seed).

[CDu]

I think it is certainly true that UNC has the easiest 1 seed. It is also fair to say that Duke could have worse brackets. Yes, MSU is a tough 3 seed. Per KenPom and T-Rank, they are the toughest of the 3 seeds and actually slightly better than UNC (though UNC's resume is somewhat deflated by missing Cam Johnson for much of the early part of the year). But aside from that game, I'm pretty comfortable with our draw. We got a reasonably good option for our 15 seed, we got the worst 7 seed and second-worst 10 seed, and we got the 3rd worst 1 seed.

And while UNC has the easiest (by far) 1 seed, the 4 seed is actually better than the 1 seed and is a top-10 team that is arguably on par with UNC and Kansas.

[Jeffrey]

And while UNC has the easiest (by far) 1 seed, the 4 seed is actually better than the 1 seed and is a top-10 team that is arguably on par with UNC and Kansas.

I think you're overrating Gonzaga. IMO, Arizona is the strongest 4 seed.

[CDu]

I think you're overrating Gonzaga. IMO, Arizona is the strongest 4 seed.

Arizona has more NBA talent on their roster. But Gonzaga is favored by all the metrics-based stats. But quite a bit actually.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Arizona has more NBA talent on their roster. But Gonzaga is favored by all the metrics-based stats. But quite a bit actually.

except for one metric....that is...which one every coach, and fan base, would RATHER play. Answer? The Zags.

[Jeffrey]

Arizona has more NBA talent on their roster. But Gonzaga is favored by all the metrics-based stats. But quite a bit actually.

Clearly, I have not looked at any stats, but I still believe Arizona is the better team. As a 4 seed, I think Arizona could win the West Region, but I do not think Gonzaga will.

[Highlander]

Agreed, which is why I think the Cheaters (with an inferior season) got the best placement as a 2 seed. IMO, we are the top ranked 2 seed and should be in that spot (facing the weakest 1 seed).

The Committee had Duke as the #6 team, with UNC as #5. We had a better regular season record, but they beat us twice head to head, so it's hard for me to disagree too much. Had UNC been a #1 seed with 10 losses and a 6th place finish in conference, then I would quibble.

Seems to me Duke got the closer regional while UNC got the closer pod. They got the Big 10 conference champ and we got the big 10 regular season champ. All in all, remarkably even. I don't know if I would change places with UNC in the bracket, given the opportunity.

[Troublemaker]

I think you're overrating Gonzaga. IMO, Arizona is the strongest 4 seed.

Arizona isn't as hot as some people are making them out to be. Two games ago, they were taken to overtime by UCLA.


except for one metric...that is...which one every coach, and fan base, would RATHER play. Answer? The Zags.

Nah, not me. And I'd like to see official polling on that. I'd rather play Zona on the East Coast than Gonzaga on the West Coast, and I think lots of coaches would agree.

[devildeac]

Clearly, I have not looked at any stats, but I still believe Arizona is the better team. As a 4 seed, I think Arizona could win the West Region, but I do not think Gonzaga will.

I'm smelling Pi today...

[Jeffrey]

The Committee had Duke as the #6 team, with UNC as #5. We had a better regular season record, but they beat us twice head to head, so it's hard for me to disagree too much. Had UNC been a #1 seed with 10 losses and a 6th place finish in conference, then I would quibble.


I'll quibble with the brilliant minds that ranked Xavier a 1 seed, Michigan State a 3 seed, and Arizona & Gonzaga 4 seeds. We should have been ranked higher than UNC.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I'll quibble with the brilliant minds that ranked Xavier a 1 seed, Michigan State a 3 seed, and Arizona & Gonzaga 4 seeds. We should have been ranked higher than UNC.

Okay coaches, show of hands.....Gonzaga or Michigan State.....who would rather play Michigan State?

.....that's what I thought.

[DaleDuke7]

As others have said, we have to limit turnovers and get defensive rebounds. We are good enough to overcome bad shooting nights from our guys, hot shooting nights from other teams, and many other things. But those two things have been our achilles heel.

I think the magic number is 12.

If we can keep our turnovers and/or keep opposing offensive rebounds under 12, I think we have a great shot at the Final Four and possibly even a championship. If I had to pick one to keep under 12, it would be turnovers. I think it’s too tough to stop teams in transition off of a turnover, whereas if we give up rebounds, our defense can get set again, and has recently proven to be elite.

[Jeffrey]

Arizona isn't as hot as some people are making them out to be. Two games ago, they were taken to overtime by UCLA.



Anything is possible, in the Conference of Champions, where Bill Walton has access to the water coolers.

[Wander]

Okay coaches, show of hands....Gonzaga or Michigan State....who would rather play Michigan State?

....that's what I thought.

The committee seeded Michigan State higher than Gonzaga, so what is the point you're making here?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The committee seeded Michigan State higher than Gonzaga, so what is the point you're making here?

AAACK, I mean Xavier, not Gonzaga.......ACK.....my bad. Have Jason send me a nasty gram...:cool:

[CDu]

except for one metric...that is...which one every coach, and fan base, would RATHER play. Answer? The Zags.

Not a metric, but a fair opinion. But worth noting that Arizona hasn't beaten a top-25 team this year. Not one. And they have 5 losses to teams outside the top-50.

Ayton and Trier are great talents for sure. But this Arizona team has worse PG play than we do, and don't have any depth. And the results just haven't been there.

Gonzaga, meanwhile, doesn't have a top-5 pick on the roster, but does have a couple of future NBA guys as well. But just as importantly, they have guys with LOTS of experience on the roster. Williams (probably their top NBA prospect) is a fifth-year senior, Perkins a redshirt junior who will play in the NBA, Melson a senior, Tillie a sophomore who will play in the NBA.

If you ask me who would be better if these two teams stayed together for 2-3 more years? Arizona, hands down. But Arizona is less experienced and simply hasn't played as well this year. Doesn't mean they won't turn it on now. Just that they haven't been the better team this year.

[Jeffrey]

Not a metric, but a fair opinion. But worth noting that Arizona hasn't beaten a top-25 team this year. Not one. And they have 5 losses to teams outside the top-50.

Ayton and Trier are great talents for sure. But this Arizona team has worse PG play than we do, and don't have any depth. And the results just haven't been there.

Gonzaga, meanwhile, doesn't have a top-5 pick on the roster, but does have a couple of future NBA guys as well. But just as importantly, they have guys with LOTS of experience on the roster. Williams (probably their top NBA prospect) is a fifth-year senior, Perkins a redshirt junior who will play in the NBA, Melson a senior, Tillie a sophomore who will play in the NBA.

If you ask me who would be better if these two teams stayed together for 2-3 more years? Arizona, hands down. But Arizona is less experienced and simply hasn't played as well this year. Doesn't mean they won't turn it on now. Just that they haven't been the better team this year.

You're right, as usual, after looking at the stats, Gonzaga was the better team this year and they're definitely capable of winning the West.

I still think Arizona is a strong 4 seed, but their stats certainly do not show it. It's time for Miller to get his money's worth.

[devildeac]

You're right, as usual, after looking at the stats, Gonzaga was the better team this year and they're definitely capable of winning the West.

I still think Arizona is a strong 4 seed, but their stats certainly do not show it. It's time for Miller to get his money's worth.

8202

[Highlander]

I'll quibble with the brilliant minds that ranked Xavier a 1 seed, Michigan State a 3 seed, and Arizona & Gonzaga 4 seeds. We should have been ranked higher than UNC.

IMO, Xavier got the last 1 seed based on their overall record having only 5 losses, and because there were no better choices. UNC has 10 losses, so I don't think they were ever seriously a 1 seed. If they were the #5 team, the committee gave them A LOT of credit for beating us twice because that's the best thing on their resume. Everyone below Xavier in the rankings also lost in their conference tournament, so they kind of fell into it. MSU is about the only team I see that has a legitimate gripe for getting a head scratcher of a 3 seed.

Duke above UNC is a tough sell IMO because they beat us not once, but twice head to head, including 2 days before selection Sunday on a neutral court.

And I'd rather play Xavier than MSU definitely, although I don't think MSU is as strong as their reputation. Still, they only lost 4 times all year and all 3 of those opponents are in the dance and the lowest seeded team is 5 (Ohio State). That's better than us or UNC. Should be a good matchup if we both make it there.

[rsvman]

8202

LOL!

[gebhart]

And I'd rather play Xavier than MSU definitely, although I don't think MSU is as strong as their reputation. Still, they only lost 4 times all year and all 3 of those opponents are in the dance and the lowest seeded team is 5 (Ohio State). That's better than us or UNC. Should be a good matchup if we both make it there.

If you look at MSU's schedule though, they also only beat two teams in the tournament all year - Purdue at home by 3 and UNC on a neutral court by 18. So their record against the tourney field - albeit all against top 5 seeds - is 2-4.

[CDu]

IMO, Xavier got the last 1 seed based on their overall record having only 5 losses, and because there were no better choices. UNC has 10 losses, so I don't think they were ever seriously a 1 seed. If they were the #5 team, the committee gave them A LOT of credit for beating us twice because that's the best thing on their resume. Everyone below Xavier in the rankings also lost in their conference tournament, so they kind of fell into it. MSU is about the only team I see that has a legitimate gripe for getting a head scratcher of a 3 seed.

Duke above UNC is a tough sell IMO because they beat us not once, but twice head to head, including 2 days before selection Sunday on a neutral court.

And I'd rather play Xavier than MSU definitely, although I don't think MSU is as strong as their reputation. Still, they only lost 4 times all year and all 3 of those opponents are in the dance and the lowest seeded team is 5 (Ohio State). That's better than us or UNC. Should be a good matchup if we both make it there.

Xavier got a 1 seed because, while the committee has made suggestions that they are relying less on the RPI, they still very much relied on the RPI. But everywhere else, Xavier was outside the top 10. They really should have been a 3 or 4 seed. But because they had a stellar RPI and good W/L record, the committee didn't feel comfortable downgrading them based solely on metrics-based ranking.

Xavier was #3 in RPI. UNC #4, Duke #7. As you noted, UNC wasn't going to get a 1 because they had 10 losses. Kansas got the 3rd #1 because they won the Big 12, which was the best top-to-bottom conference in the country.

Michigan State was #14 in the RPI, which is what sank them to the 3 line. They would have been lower than that if they had a couple of more losses, but the committee just couldn't quite reconcile pushing them all the way down to the 4 line with just 4 losses while playing in a "power" conference. By metrics-based stats, MSU should have been solidly on the 2 line. But they really got hammered by the RPI. And since the RPI rankings determined the order in which the committee's "team sheets" listed them, they really had to climb an uphill battle from there.

Ditto for Gonzaga, who was #21 in RPI but top-10 in metrics-based stats. They probably should have been a 3 seed, but the committee couldn't bump them up that far from what the RPI suggested was a 5/6 seed resume.

Arizona was actually seeded pretty well. They were #13 in RPI, #21 in KenPom, #21 in BPI, and #23 in T-Rank. While their talent suggests they should have been better, the results (both outcomes and metrics-wise) were pretty consistent in labeling them a 4, 5, or even 6 seed. This is one of those teams where there has been a season-long disconnect between how good they should be and how well they have actually played. So, honestly, the committee gave them some seeding love by putting them on the 4 line, probably because they won their conference.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Xavier got a 1 seed because, while the committee has made suggestions that they are relying less on the RPI, they still very much relied on the RPI. .

I was wondering if I was the only one who noticed that about the RPI

[Duke79UNLV77]

I was wondering if I was the only one who noticed that about the RPI

Bad data in, bad data out. The quadrant system, broadly lumping together 50 (or more, considering the varying scales for home, neutral, and away games) teams, was just lipstick on a pig, and in some ways made matters worse.

[Jeffrey]

8202

Really? You could not come up with a beer label? My lob was spot on.

[hustleplays]

I agree on your assessment of our offense. One thing comes to mind regarding shots taken in our half court set. We sometimes get caught up in dribbling the air out of the ball around the perimeter. I know we've discussed this way too many times but we seem so intent in passing the ball down low that we let the shot clock run down to near zero and have to force a pass or force a shot. GET IN AN OFFENSIVE SET AS SOON AS THE BALL GET'S ACROSS THE TEN SECOND LINE. If the low post men are covered, go to another set. This team has so much talent on offense it should not have to struggle to score. I hate to say it, but it looks like some of this is on the coaching staff. Ok, now let me have it. I'm a big boy. :cool::cool:GoDuke!

At this late point of the season, why does our offense too often stagnate around the perimeter and force passes into the heavily guarded/congested post? Why do our bigs, wings and off guards not do more pick and rolls, screen setting [not just once], curls, cuts, etc.?

Given our immensely talented coaching staff and players, I am puzzled as to why this hasn't been addressed more successfully. Even given our talented but inexperienced PG, aren't there some workarounds that would minimize this?

I know a certain amount about basketball, but evidently not enough. This basic stuff seems fixable, given the coaching and player talent. But apparently not, so thanks for any insights!

[uh_no]

At this late point of the season, why does our offense too often stagnate around the perimeter and force passes into the heavily guarded/congested post? Why do our bigs, wings and off guards not do more pick and rolls, screen setting [not just once], curls, cuts, etc.?

Given our immensely talented coaching staff and players, I am puzzled as to why this hasn't been addressed more successfully. Even given our talented but inexperienced PG, aren't there some workarounds that would minimize this?

I know a certain amount about basketball, but evidently not enough. This basic stuff seems fixable, given the coaching and player talent. But apparently not, so thanks for any insights!

biggest problem I see is the lack of a smaller 4 means that whlie the two bigs DO shoot well, the defenders can still largely stay at home...making screens less effective. The passing out of the post is also lackluster. Duval also is hit or miss. I think over the course of the season, he's clearly become more controlled (doesn't try to go into 4v1 so often anymore), but also doesn't know when he needs to attack. Hopefully he's encouraged to be agressive. I'm guessing making turnovers when he DOES get aggressive makes him more passive than we'd want. Basically I think he's afraid of making mistakes. You can see it in his expression after a turnover....he gets frustrated with himself. the fact that he's not really a threat to hit that midrange shot hurts as well, so nobody really needs to step up off a big to help, since they just wait for duval to come to them.

Anyway, that's just my thought. I'm sure someone who knows much more than I can tell me why it's wrong.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Really interesting feature on Trent at WRAL.com....written feature. They make the case that he's Duke's most important player going forward. It's compelling, and they list his big time moments in close games, and it's impressive.

It's a good read, and a fascinating glimpse inside of Trent. Not long, enjoy...
http://www.wralsportsfan.com/trent-is-the-dog-in-duke-s-hunt-for-a-6th-banner/17416478/

[Dukehky]

Really interesting feature on Trent at WRAL.com...written feature. They make the case that he's Duke's most important player going forward. It's compelling, and they list his big time moments in close games, and it's impressive.

It's a good read, and a fascinating glimpse inside of Trent. Not long, enjoy...
http://www.wralsportsfan.com/trent-is-the-dog-in-duke-s-hunt-for-a-6th-banner/17416478/

Was just about to post. Swain is legit.

[Owen Meany]

Excuse me if this has been posted, but on the News and Observer site, Duval says he will be fine tomorrow and Carter says his foot injury is something he'll have to play with. I'm on mobile and can't post a link.

[throatybeard]

Agree. The great batsman Rogers Hornsby, when asked about his approach to hitting, said the key thing was to "get a good ball to hit."


That is really elegant; it feels like a philosophical truth.

[Saratoga2]

biggest problem I see is the lack of a smaller 4 means that whlie the two bigs DO shoot well, the defenders can still largely stay at home...making screens less effective. The passing out of the post is also lackluster. Duval also is hit or miss. I think over the course of the season, he's clearly become more controlled (doesn't try to go into 4v1 so often anymore), but also doesn't know when he needs to attack. Hopefully he's encouraged to be agressive. I'm guessing making turnovers when he DOES get aggressive makes him more passive than we'd want. Basically I think he's afraid of making mistakes. You can see it in his expression after a turnover...he gets frustrated with himself. the fact that he's not really a threat to hit that midrange shot hurts as well, so nobody really needs to step up off a big to help, since they just wait for duval to come to them.

Anyway, that's just my thought. I'm sure someone who knows much more than I can tell me why it's wrong.

I never played BB at anywhere near the Div I high major level so find it hard to imagine what is like at floor level to face such long and quick defenders and to make good decisions with the ball against a variety of defenses that they play. Duval and Allen do face that in every game. It got me to wondering, "What are they thinking"?

Do they assess what defense is playing against them on the way up the floor probably knowing the favorite one or two defenses a team might use? Do they look to see what defensive personnel are on the floor and also what Duke players are in the game to decide on a course of action? Do they look for mismatches or errors made by defenders? Do they think at all or just react to the situation at hand? Do they communicate with others what course of action they want to follow by talking or by hand signals?

I have considered Jon Scheyer as sort of a thinking man's PG from recent teams who didn't get sped up or let his emotions take over. I really don't know if he performed in a way I attribute to him, while I think Grayson is more an emotional player. Hard to form an opinion of Trevon. Really hard to know what these PGs face and the only way to evaluate them is through the number of sloppy plays, turnnovers and effectiveness of the offense with them in the game. I wonder if the coaches have discussions with the pGs to try to help them with the incredible difficult situation they face in the game.

[TruBlu]

I never played BB at anywhere near the Div I high major level so find it hard to imagine what is like at floor level to face such long and quick defenders and to make good decisions with the ball against a variety of defenses that they play. Duval and Allen do face that in every game. It got me to wondering, "What are they thinking"?

Do they assess what defense is playing against them on the way up the floor probably knowing the favorite one or two defenses a team might use? Do they look to see what defensive personnel are on the floor and also what Duke players are in the game to decide on a course of action? Do they look for mismatches or errors made by defenders? Do they think at all or just react to the situation at hand? Do they communicate with others what course of action they want to follow by talking or by hand signals?

I have considered Jon Scheyer as sort of a thinking man's PG from recent teams who didn't get sped up or let his emotions take over. I really don't know if he performed in a way I attribute to him, while I think Grayson is more an emotional player. Hard to form an opinion of Trevon. Really hard to know what these PGs face and the only way to evaluate them is through the number of sloppy plays, turnnovers and effectiveness of the offense with them in the game. I wonder if the coaches have discussions with the pGs to try to help them with the incredible difficult situation they face in the game.

Good questions.

To add another question (or two or three), what percentage of the plays are set plays called from the bench? And how does this percentage of set plays for Duke compare with other teams? Then if a "called" set play breaks down due to poor execution on our part or good defense by the opponent, do we then we go into a second alternative, or is it merely "take what you can get"?

There was one game this year where Coach K told the team at halftime, in a game where we were playing poorly, that there were no more "set" plays in the second half . . . to just go out and play ball. It worked, IIRC.

[CDu]

I have considered Jon Scheyer as sort of a thinking man's PG from recent teams who didn't get sped up or let his emotions take over. I really don't know if he performed in a way I attribute to him, while I think Grayson is more an emotional player. Hard to form an opinion of Trevon. Really hard to know what these PGs face and the only way to evaluate them is through the number of sloppy plays, turnnovers and effectiveness of the offense with them in the game. I wonder if the coaches have discussions with the pGs to try to help them with the incredible difficult situation they face in the game.

I think Allen and Duval are both guys for whom their athleticism has allowed them to not have to think much as players. Both are just so gifted athletically that they've gotten by largely on being able to outathlete their opposition, and are just now (well, in Allen's case it was true last year too) starting to face competition that is ready for and able to combat their athletic onslaught.

In a way, I feel like Kennard would be the better fit on this year's team than Allen. He's the more savvy player. Having not been able to outathlete his opponents for years, he's really developed his game with guile and nuance, and really knows how to react to what the defense is doing. On this team, with the crowded lane that we will face every game, I think he'd have been the better fit. Don't get me wrong: I'm not upset that we have Allen. He's a great player too. But if I could pick in this hypothetical extremely-first-world scenario, I think Kennard would be the better fit.

I'm sure that the coaching staff works hard in talking to these guys about what they are facing. But it's really tough, if you are not a "high bball IQ" type of player, to recognize what the defense is doing and make good decisions against it in real time. And I don't think Duval and Allen are naturally good reactive players. They seem to make their decision in advance, and let their athleticism take over, for good or for bad.

[Reilly]

Agree. The great batsman Rogers Hornsby, when asked about his approach to hitting, said the key thing was to "get a good ball to hit."


That is really elegant; it feels like a philosophical truth.

I'm partial to Vlad Guerrero's direct reply when someone asked him about his approach and the pitch he had hit for an important HR: "I see the ball, I hit the ball."

[jv001]

I'm partial to Vlad Guerrero's direct reply when someone asked him about his approach and the pitch he had hit for an important HR: "I see the ball, I hit the ball."

Didn't Willie "say hey" Mays say; "they hit it, I catch it, they pitch it", I hit it? :cool:GoDuke!

[Saratoga2]

I'm partial to Vlad Guerrero's direct reply when someone asked him about his approach and the pitch he had hit for an important HR: "I see the ball, I hit the ball."

Those type of statements apply when it is one on one. Hitter against pitcher, etc. But basketball is a team game and it is usually not about one blowing by another, it has nuances where thinking gets involved to go with the special abilities. A basketball statement might be more of I see whats going on and I make the right play. sometimes, as others have said, I know what I want to do and I am going to do it regardless.

[Spanarkel]

Those type of statements apply when it is one on one. Hitter against pitcher, etc. But basketball is a team game and it is usually not about one blowing by another, it has nuances where thinking gets involved to go with the special abilities. A basketball statement might be more of I see whats going on and I make the right play. sometimes, as others have said, I know what I want to do and I am going to do it regardless.

I think Hornsby's approach of "get a good ball to hit" applies pretty well to college basketball: "get a good shot and shoot."