2018 DBR Bracket Challenge

[blazindw]

Hey everyone, the DBR Bracket Challenge is back for 2018! Here are the details below:

https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/group/117072

Name: Duke Basketball Report
Group: 117072

It's a public bracket this year so there shouldn't be a password to join, but if they ask for one: duke

As always, try to use your DBR handle in your bracket name if possible. This year, there is a special prize to the winner! To find out what it is, listen to Episode 111 of the DBR Podcast, which we expect to drop on you early tomorrow morning (3/13), and we will detail what that prize will be!

Good luck everyone!

[uh_no]

Hey everyone, the DBR Bracket Challenge is back for 2018! Here are the details below:

https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/group/117072

Name: Duke Basketball Report
Group: 117072

It's a public bracket this year so there shouldn't be a password to join, but if they ask for one: duke

As always, try to use your DBR handle in your bracket name if possible. This year, there is a special prize to the winner! To find out what it is, listen to Episode 111 of the DBR Podcast, which we expect to drop on you early tomorrow morning (3/13), and we will detail what that prize will be!

Good luck everyone!

of course...the year AFTER I win :)

[BandAlum83]

Bump...I had to search too long to find it :)

[BandAlum83]

Do i need to set up a yahoo email account o join the group?

[Dev11]

Do i need to set up a yahoo email account o join the group?

You don't have one lying around from like 2002? It's not such a big deal, and definitely worth the shot at joining us on the podcast :D

[swood1000]

According to fivethirtyeight.com (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-tournaments-most-likely-first-round-upsets/) these are the most likely first round upsets. (They claim that their model gave Mercer a 57.1% chance of beating Duke in 2014.)

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=8201&stc=1

[CDu]

According to fivethirtyeight.com (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-tournaments-most-likely-first-round-upsets/) these are the most likely first round upsets. (They claim that their model gave Mercer a 57.1% chance of beating Duke in 2014.)

To be clear, they claim that their upset model predicted Mercer had a 57.1% chance of beating Duke. Their primary model did not do that.

Basically, they are presenting two models: the standard, stat-based model, which favors the team rated higher in efficiency-based stats; and their upset model, which specifically looks at matchups hunting for the best chances at an upset. Not surprisingly, the standard model has Villanova (second-best team, easiest draw) and UVa (best team, tougher draw) as the plurality favorites to win it all at 18% and 14% respectively. In their upset model, they have identified several potential upsets.

Key quote:
"Right now FiveThirtyEight’s predictions give Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo and Murray State an 11, 15 and 16 percent chance to win, respectively, but LUC assigns probabilities over 50 percent to each of these underdogs, and even suggests that Murray State has nearly a 65 percent chance to win. This model picks with such brazenness because it was trained specifically to hunt for upsets."

So, if you are going to bet on a team to win, the standard model is the way to go. But if you are looking for upsets to sneak into your bracket, the upset model identifies your best bets. You just have to understand that those upsets are still upsets for a reason.

[BandAlum83]

You don't have one lying around from like 2002? It's not such a big deal, and definitely worth the shot at joining us on the podcast :D

Actually, I didn't need a yahoo address. I already had an account from last year using my regular email address

[juise]

I’m in and I always do terrible in this one. But... when I win this year, I hope the podcast is ready to reminisce about 2001-2004 Duke basketball (after the season).

[blazindw]

I’m in and I always do terrible in this one. But... when I win this year, I hope the podcast is ready to reminisce about 2001-2004 Duke basketball (after the season).

You know I can get behind that plan!

[jv001]

Only miss so far was the Wolfpack loss. What was I thinking. :cool: GoDuke!

[BandAlum83]

I do have 14/16 and 7/8, and 4/4 still alive, so I have that going for me :)

[BandAlum83]

Interesting.

The current leader after 24 games played (Game Time) and I have the same final and same tie breaking score. the other two Final Four participants differ, however.

[aimo]

Wow. For some reason, I picked Arizona in the championship game, yet I am tied for fourth place. Awesome!

[elvis14]

I do have 14/16 and 7/8, and 4/4 still alive, so I have that going for me :)

Wow, that's good. I have 8/16 6/8 and 3/4 (had Cincinnati in the FF where most had UVa). My other FF teams are Michigan, Villanova and Duke.

[BigZ]

Didn't enter this challenge but my bracket is solid. 11 out of 16 correct. I did have MSUnot making it but I had TCU not Syracuse. I have all four teams in East. 3 in the MidWest and West. Nevada in the West

[BandAlum83]

Wow, that's good. I have 8/16 6/8 and 3/4 (had Cincinnati in the FF where most had UVa). My other FF teams are Michigan, Villanova and Duke.

That was then, this is now: 8/16, 5/8, 2/4.

[arnie]

Hey everyone, the DBR Bracket Challenge is back for 2018! Here are the details below:

https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/group/117072

Name: Duke Basketball Report
Group: 117072

It's a public bracket this year so there shouldn't be a password to join, but if they ask for one: duke

As always, try to use your DBR handle in your bracket name if possible. This year, there is a special prize to the winner! To find out what it is, listen to Episode 111 of the DBR Podcast, which we expect to drop on you early tomorrow morning (3/13), and we will detail what that prize will be!

Good luck everyone!

Bump in anticipation of tonite

[Dev11]

Regardless of the championship game outcome tonight, Yahoo user "ed" has won the DBR bracket challenge, since they are in first place and have Villanova winning the championship, and nobody within striking distance picked Michigan. Way to go, ed, and please reach out to any of us so we can plan for your guest spot.