Duke vs. Iona NCAAT (3/15 2:45 pm CBS) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread:

[subzero02]

The final phase begins on Thursday. We have the talent to win the whole thing. Iona is step one.

[Tripping William]

The final phase begins on Thursday. We have the talent to win the whole thing. Iona is step one.

Jeff Ruland ain't walkin' through that door . . . thank heavens.

[gofurman]

The final phase begins on Thursday. We have the talent to win the whole thing. Iona is step one.

This is all that matters , well hopefully this and Rhode Island. I want no part of Oklahoma


CDu? Thoughts on Iona ? Rhode Island and Oklahoma?

[Devil2]

Jeff Ruland ain't walkin' through that door . . . thank heavens.

Not sure Jeff would fit through the door

[Tripping William]

This is all that matters , well hopefully this and Rhode Island. I want no part of Oklahoma


CDu? Thoughts on Iona ? <text deleted>

FIFY. One step at a time (from someone who watched 2012 and 2014 live-and-in-person). :eek:

[Ultrarunner]

FIFY. One step at a time (from someone who watched 2012 and 2014 live-and-in-person). :eek:

You’re watching on TV this year, right? :)

[rocketeli]

This is all that matters , well hopefully this and Rhode Island. I want no part of Oklahoma


CDu? Thoughts on Iona ? Rhode Island and Oklahoma?

Why not Oklahoma? They aren't very good-the only reason there are in the tournament is marketing--the committee couldn't bear to leave Trae Young at home.

[CDu]

This is all that matters , well hopefully this and Rhode Island. I want no part of Oklahoma


CDu? Thoughts on Iona ? Rhode Island and Oklahoma?

It is coming. Gotta get the kid to bed.

[Neals384]

Iona won the MAAC tournament but had a lot of help. The 1, 2 and 3 seeds were all knocked out in the quarterfinals, leaving #4 Iona as the highest seed in the semis.

[Tripping William]

You’re watching on TV this year, right? :)

Yes. But I was in Charlotte in 2015, too.

[SCMatt33]

Iona's main three guys on the front line rotation are 6'6", 6'7" and 6'8". If any of them can defend Bagley and Carter without ending up on a poster I'd be shocked. And now with the zone, I'm not worried about them getting dragged out into pick and pop type ball screens.

[ipatent]

This is all that matters , well hopefully this and Rhode Island. I want no part of Oklahoma

I'd rather have Oklahoma, stop one player and we win. Rhody is a top 25 team.

[FerryFor50]

If you look at Iona's schedule, they didn't really beat anyone of note.

As for common Duke opponents:

- Lost to Syracuse 71-62
- Lost to St John's 69-59

They also lost to potential 2nd round opponent Rhode Island 80-74.

Iona's offensive efficiency in KenPom is 110.3 (80th) and defensive efficiency of 107.4 (212th) with a tempo of 70.7 (56th).

So, they play a decent pace and aren't terrible offensively, but are pretty bad defensively.

They also give up a TON of offensive rebounds, don't turn it over much and don't force a ton of turnovers. They also don't get to the line a lot and give up a decent amount of free throws.

I think Duke rolls them over pretty easily.

[arnie]

Vegas lines are out : we’re currently 20-pt fav.

[FerryFor50]

Vegas lines are out : we’re currently 20-pt fav.

I'm of the opinion you rest Duval most of the game, provided he's still injured by then.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I'd rather have Oklahoma, stop one player and we win. Rhody is a top 25 team.

In general, I agree with that assessment. I also think Trae Young would struggle against our fall back zone, given Duke's length. So on general match ups, I agree. That said, the downside of playing Oklahoma to me is that all week those guys are going to hear how they don't belong, how they shouldn't be there. Motivations like this, and Arizona's with the pay the player accusation, can absolutely become huge factors in the NCAA. Teams can simply play above their heads. How many times do we see an unexpected run in the tourney, and come to find out a team is 'on a mission' due to this that or the other thing. Well we know what those things could be with Zona and Oklahoma.

Sometimes my radar on these things is right on the money. Sometimes I"m just paranoid....

[gam7]

Iona's main three guys on the front line rotation are 6'6", 6'7" and 6'8". If any of them can defend Bagley and Carter without ending up on a poster I'd be shocked. And now with the zone, I'm not worried about them getting dragged out into pick and pop type ball screens.

A few quick kenpom hits:

- Iona is kenpom #134.
- No wins vs. kenpom top 100.
- One win vs. kenpom top 150: Rider (#139)
- Better than D1-average offensive efficiency (#80); worse than average defensive efficiency (#212)
- Very poor rebounding team (#303 offensive reb efficiency); #253 defensive rebounding efficiency
- Good 3-pt shooting - 38.8% (#33) vs. Duke 37.8% (#49)
- Stifling free throw shooting defense at 66.2% (#3) vs. Duke at 73.9% (#308)
- Notable results: @Cuse (L, -9 pts), @St. John's (L, -10), @Rhode Island (L, -6).
- kenpom projects a 19-point Duke win.

Edit: I see FerryFor50 beat me to it on some of this...

[subzero02]

Vegas lines are out : we’re currently 20-pt fav.

Does anyone know what the point spreads were against Mercer and Lehigh?

[Troublemaker]

Does anyone know what the point spreads were against Mercer and Lehigh?

Mercer was 13 (https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/teams/pastresults/2013-2014/team2518.html). Lehigh was 11 (https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/teams/pastresults/2011-2012/team2518.html).

It's not comparable because Duke is a computer darling this season, and computers are integral to how spreads are created. On digital paper, we are a much stronger team than 2014 and 2012. (And in reality, too, imo).

[FerryFor50]

Does anyone know what the point spreads were against Mercer and Lehigh?

13.5 for Mercer
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/mercer-duke-odds-march-21-2014

12.5 for Lehigh
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/point-spread-favors-blue-devils-in-battle-with-mountain-hawks-march-16-2012

A couple things:

- The Duke team that lost to Mercer was pretty bad defensively (86th). This year's team is #7 in effective defense.
- The Duke team that lost to Lehigh was also bad on defense (79) and were facing a future NBA star in CJ McCollum.

Iona has no NBA players, most likely. CJ McCollum averaged 22ppg for Lehigh. Iona has 2 guys averaging around 13ppg.

[rsvman]

Does anyone know what the point spreads were against Mercer and Lehigh?

Mercer was 131st in the country and the point spread was Duke -13.

Lehigh was Duke -12.5.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Mercer was 13 (https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/teams/pastresults/2013-2014/team2518.html). Lehigh was 11 (https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/teams/pastresults/2011-2012/team2518.html).

It's not comparable because Duke is a computer darling this season, and computers are integral to how spreads are created. On digital paper, we are a much stronger team than 2014 and 2012. (And in reality, too, imo).

Seems to me Mercer was a very old team too....almost all seniors and juniors. Do you remember if that was the case? 21-22 is a totally different station in life than 18-19.

[gofurman]

Does anyone know what the point spreads were against Mercer and Lehigh?


Yup... Bet they were similar


Lose by less than 10 to URI and Cuse. They can play somewhat

[arnie]

13.5 for Mercer
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/mercer-duke-odds-march-21-2014

12.5 for Lehigh
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/point-spread-favors-blue-devils-in-battle-with-mountain-hawks-march-16-2012

A couple things:

- The Duke team that lost to Mercer was pretty bad defensively (86th). This year's team is #7 in effective defense.
- The Duke team that lost to Lehigh was also bad on defense (79) and were facing a future NBA star in CJ McCollum.

Iona has no NBA players, most likely. CJ McCollum averaged 22ppg for Lehigh. Iona has 2 guys averaging around 13ppg.
Agree, a loss to Iona would be much worse than the other losses. Also weren’t we missing a starter against Lehigh; maybe Kelly?

[gofurman]

Seems to me Mercer was a very old team too...almost all seniors and juniors. Do you remember if that was the case? 21-22 is a totally different station in life than 18-19.

Mercer was all seniors pretty much. But so is Iona. Mostly junior senior.. The diff is this team really was third /4th in MAAC but won tourney w some help

[FerryFor50]

Seems to me Mercer was a very old team too...almost all seniors and juniors. Do you remember if that was the case? 21-22 is a totally different station in life than 18-19.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/mercer/2014.html

Yep. Five of their top players were seniors.

[FerryFor50]

Agree, a loss to Iona would be much worse than the other losses. Also weren’t we missing a starter against Lehigh; maybe Kelly?

Yep. And they had Austin Rivers, who, for all the greatness of his game winner against UNC, was a bit of a ball stopper.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2012-03-16-duke.html

[subzero02]

13.5 for Mercer
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/mercer-duke-odds-march-21-2014

12.5 for Lehigh
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/point-spread-favors-blue-devils-in-battle-with-mountain-hawks-march-16-2012

A couple things:

- The Duke team that lost to Mercer was pretty bad defensively (86th). This year's team is #7 in effective defense.
- The Duke team that lost to Lehigh was also bad on defense (79) and were facing a future NBA star in CJ McCollum.

Iona has no NBA players, most likely. CJ McCollum averaged 22ppg for Lehigh. Iona has 2 guys averaging around 13ppg.

So you're saying it's over. I'd like to see us shoot the ball from 3 well and also limit our turnovers. I want to see a lot of Robinson, Goldwire, White and Vrankovic in the 2nd half. Hopefully Duval and Carter can rest down the stretch if the coaching staff feels that will be beneficial as they recover.

[proelitedota]

How good is Iona from the free throw range? They be practicing that for the whole week.

[FerryFor50]

So you're saying it's over. I'd like to see us shoot the ball from 3 well and also limit our turnovers. I want to see a lot of Robinson, Goldwire, White and Vrankovic in the 2nd half.

If there's any game where Duke should be able to limit their turnovers, it'd be against an Iona team that's 254th in turnover %.

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Iona

That said, Duke did turn it over 19 times against South Dakota, who's 78th in turnover %.

[gam7]

I'd rather have Oklahoma, stop one player and we win. Rhody is a top 25 team.

March 1999: "I'd rather have Miami (OH), stop one player and we win."
March 1999: Result: 10-seed Miami (OH) 66, 2-seed Utah 58.

March 2008: "I'd rather have Davidson, stop one player and we win."
March 2008: Result: 10-seed Davidson 74, 2-seed Georgetown 70.

March 2012: "I'd rather have Lehigh, stop one player and we win."
March 2012: Result: 15-seed Lehigh 75, 2-seed Duke 70.

[FerryFor50]

March 1999: "I'd rather have Miami (OH), stop one player and we win."
March 1999: Result: 10-seed Miami (OH) 66, 2-seed Utah 58.

March 2008: "I'd rather have Davidson, stop one player and we win."
March 2008: Result: 10-seed Davidson 74, 2-seed Georgetown 70.

March 2012: "I'd rather have Lehigh, stop one player and we win."
March 2012: Result: 15-seed Lehigh 75, 2-seed Duke 70.

You missed the best one.

March 1999: "I'd rather play Weber St. Stop one player and you win.
March 1999: Result: 14 seed Weber St 76, 3 seed UNC 74

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/1999-03-11-north-carolina.html

[gam7]

You missed the best one.

March 1999: "I'd rather play Weber St. Stop one player and you win.
March 1999: Result: 14 seed Weber St 76, 3 seed UNC 74

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/1999-03-11-north-carolina.html

Haha, I didn't miss it! I typed it out, but decided to just limit it to 2-seeds! I should've included it on principle.

[ipatent]

March 1999: "I'd rather have Miami (OH), stop one player and we win."
March 1999: Result: 10-seed Miami (OH) 66, 2-seed Utah 58.

March 2008: "I'd rather have Davidson, stop one player and we win."
March 2008: Result: 10-seed Davidson 74, 2-seed Georgetown 70.

March 2012: "I'd rather have Lehigh, stop one player and we win."
March 2012: Result: 15-seed Lehigh 75, 2-seed Duke 70.

The better analogy from your point of view is probably the Jason Kidd game in '93. However, the reason Oklahoma has finished weakly this season is they've been scouted and opposing coaches know the formula to beating them. I don't think that formula will be lost on Coach K.

[Reilly]

Vegas lines are out : we’re currently 20-pt fav.


A few quick kenpom hits:

- Iona is kenpom #134. ...
- kenpom projects a 19-point Duke win.

...

The SRS sees it as the #2 team against the #147 team, with Duke 24 points better:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2018-ratings.html

[uh_no]

The SRS sees it as the #2 team against the #147 team, with Duke 24 points better:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2018-ratings.html

duke's worst loss is to #80 St. Johns. Iona is 134.
Iona's best win is to to #139 Rider. Duke is 3.

I think 96% chance of duke winning is probably on the low side. I don't think Iona wins this 1/25 times. Maybe 1/50 or 100.

[MrPoon]

duke's worst loss is to #80 St. Johns. Iona is 134.
Iona's best win is to to #139 Rider. Duke is 3.

I think 96% chance of duke winning is probably on the low side. I don't think Iona wins this 1/25 times. Maybe 1/50 or 100.

Thank you.
Oh and Duke may have a better coach.

[Ian]

Yeah I wouldn't sweat this one too much. This is a much stronger Duke team than the ones that have struggled in the 1st round. We have flaws but Iona is not the team to exploit them.

[sagegrouse]

The better analogy from your point of view is probably the Jason Kidd game in '93. However, the reason Oklahoma has finished weakly this season is they've been scouted and opposing coaches know the formula to beating them. I don't think that formula will be lost on Coach K.

That game was in the round of 32.

[proelitedota]

I think we'll struggle for some times in this game as they'll be practicing breaking our zone the whole week.

[bigperm13]

I think we'll struggle for some times in this game as they'll be practicing breaking our zone the whole week.

I wish them good luck finding a way to simulate Duke's length and quickness, especially from Duval.

[Reilly]

Iona's records at sports-reference.com are not complete, but it looks like Iona (and Valvano) were 3-2 against Army (and K) during the 1976-1980 five-year span.

[FerryFor50]

Iona's records at sports-reference.com are not complete, but it looks like Iona (and Valvano) were 3-2 against Army (and K) during the 1976-1980 five-year span.

It's over.

[uh_no]

I think we'll struggle for some times in this game as they'll be practicing breaking our zone the whole week.

shrug. teams have seen elements of our zone for 2 months now. They've all been "practicing" it without much success. the only real success has been UNC the other night....and even their offense was severely depressed vs expectation....but I'm sure world beaters like the gaels are going to be the ones to decipher it.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I think we'll struggle for some times in this game as they'll be practicing breaking our zone the whole week.

Don't we struggle for some times in EVERY game? Seriously, until I see something different, I expect nothing but a roller coaster ride from this Duke team. I don't expect Iona or any other team to be easy. If Trent and Allen aren't shooting particularly well and they clog the lane on our bigs, we struggle. Iona gets hot from 3 for a period, we have a game on our hands. Duke can't seem to play well for more than 2-4 minute stretches, then we get turnovers and bad shots for a stretch. We have to hope our great 2-4 minute stretches are extraordinary enough to outweigh the inevitable bad play. As has been the case all season- Duke can lose to anyone, or beat anyone on any given night. That's just our reality this year.

[budwom]

For this game (and perhaps this game only) we should have the size advantage with Bagley and Carter to get a lot of garbage buckets, even if we shoot poorly. Beyond that
game, we'd better cut down on turnovers, especially the self inflicted ones.

[rsvman]

I wish them good luck finding a way to simulate Duke's length and quickness, especially from Duval.

I hope that Duval can simulate Duval's quickness, after what happened to him in the first half of our last game!

[Bluedevil114]

Why not Oklahoma? They aren't very good-the only reason there are in the tournament is marketing--the committee couldn't bear to leave Trae Young at home.

Agreed but that is why I would have thought LSU would have gotten in the tournament to see Ben Simmons play last season.

[Kedsy]

Agreed but that is why I would have thought LSU would have gotten in the tournament to see Ben Simmons play last season.

Ben Simmons was two seasons ago. Last season was Washington and Markelle Fultz.

[OldPhiKap]

I hope that Duval can simulate Duval's quickness, after what happened to him in the first half of our last game!

This. I hope Trevon is good to go 100%.

[Neals384]

If there's any game where Duke should be able to limit their turnovers, it'd be against an Iona team that's 254th in turnover %.

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Iona

That said, Duke did turn it over 19 times against South Dakota, who's 78th in turnover %.

seems to me most of Duke's turns lately have been self-inflicted. I will definitely worry about valuing the rock in this game.

[COYS]

Don't we struggle for some times in EVERY game? Seriously, until I see something different, I expect nothing but a roller coaster ride from this Duke team. I don't expect Iona or any other team to be easy. If Trent and Allen aren't shooting particularly well and they clog the lane on our bigs, we struggle. Iona gets hot from 3 for a period, we have a game on our hands. Duke can't seem to play well for more than 2-4 minute stretches, then we get turnovers and bad shots for a stretch. We have to hope our great 2-4 minute stretches are extraordinary enough to outweigh the inevitable bad play. As has been the case all season- Duke can lose to anyone, or beat anyone on any given night. That's just our reality this year.

I know it seems like we've been very inconsistent, but the numbers indicate that Duke has actually been remarkably consistent over the past 10 games or so. Our defense has stayed between elite and very, very good. Our offense has been somewhere between very good and fine. Even in the ACC semifinal against UNCheat, our defense was very good, though shy of elite. UNC broke apart our zone about as well as anyone has, and all it did was produce a decent offensive showing. It just felt worse watching as a fan because our offense didn't show up.

To put our recent performances into perspective, we've actually been more consistent this year heading into the tournament than we were in 2015. T-Rank has a stat called game score that indicates how good our performance was in a particular game relative to expectations. 100 is a "perfect" game and indicative of a team that would be projected by his system to win every game against an average opponent. A game score of 20 would be a terrible performance and indicative of a team that would only be projected to win 20% of its games against an average opponent. If we go back over the past 10 games (which includes the first UNC game all the way to the present) Duke's two worst game scores were the 88 we posted in a loss to VaTech and the 88 we posted in the ACCT to UNC. For comparison's sake, in 2015, we played THREE games with game scores lower than 88, including somehow winning at VaTech despite a 73 game score, somehow beating FSU with an 84 game score, and then of course losing to ND in the ACCT with a 73 game score. In addition, in 2015 during our losses to Miami and NC State, that team had lower game scores than in any of our losses this season.

So, while it seems that this year's squad has been particularly inconsistent, we've actually played pretty consistently, especially after our switch to the zone full time. And while this team's record in close games has been poor, some of that is bad luck when it comes to opponent's free throw shooting. The 2015 had the benefit of an excellent "free throw defense," which is more or less a measure of luck. Opponents only shot 69% from the charity stripe against us in 2015. This season, they're shooting 74%. That number skyrockets to 78% in conference play.

Obviously, computers don't play the games on the court. And efficiency stats are meaningless now that the tournament is here and all that matters is a win or a loss. However, this Duke team has played consistently excellent defense over the stretch-run. The zone has manged to hold UNC's excellent offense mostly in check twice now over the past two weeks. A small improvement in our offense means that we win the close games that we've been losing. Hopefully we can make that small improvement and then make a deep run in the tourney.

[CDu]

The Gaels are a pretty nice matchup for our first round game. They aren't a completely senior-dominated squad like many of the 14/15/16 matchups are. They finished 4th in the MAAC (11-7 record), with their best win on the season being a home win over Rider (KenPom #139). That being said, they did give Syracuse, St. John's, and Rhode Island decent games, staying within 10 points on the road in all 3 of those games. So they aren't a terrible team. But they aren't the type of 15 seed that should scare anyone an inordinate amount.

The Gaels like to play fast (#56 in D1 in adjusted tempo) and shoot 3s (40.8% of their shots are 3s, and they make 38.8% of them). They don't rebound at all, though: 301st in offensive rebounding and 254th in defensive rebounding. So we should dominate the glass. They do a good job of avoiding turnovers (top-40 nationally), and don't foul a ton. But they don't really play any defense, especially inside. They are outside the top-200 in overall defensive efficiency, and 238th in defending 2pt shots. All of this is as you might expect from an undersized team, and, well, they are an undersized team.

Center: TK Edogi (6'8", 220lb grad transfer from Tulsa) is the center. Edogi wasn't quite good enough for the AAC, so he decided to add an M in the front and found a good home in the MAAC. Edogi is a solid rebounder and decent shotblocker at the low-major level, but will be giving up a LOT of size in this one. Foul trouble is also likely to be an issue for him. The Gaels have a couple of other bigs who rarely play but might get forced into action. Gavin Kensemil (6'7", 230lb freshman from Suriname) and Tyrell Williams (6'9", 250lb senior JuCo transfer) both may be forced to see the floor in this one. The two have combined for less than 300 career D1 minutes over 3 combined seasons. Williams is a good rebounder and shotblocker but also a foul machine (47 fouls in 188 career minutes). Kensemil is even more foul prone and raw (29 fouls in 103 minutes).

Forwards: EJ Crawford (6'6", 210lb sophomore) is a bit of a doughy wing forward, and not the most athletic guy around, but he can score from all over the court. His offensive game has some similarities to that of Gary Trent, although he is obviously not nearly as good (nor is he in nearly as good a shape as Trent): able to score from the midrange or from 3, more of an old-man's game in terms of finding ways to score off the dribble. Crawford will also see some time at PF given his size relative to his teammates. Behind (and often beside) Crawford is Roland Griffin (6'7", 215lb junior JuCo transfer also from Illinois State) is the starting forward for the Gaels. Griffin is more of a SF asked to play PF than a true PF. He's an very high-energy, hard-working player on the court. Griffin is a rugged forward, but capable of playing as a stretch 4. He hasn't shot the 3 much this year, but he is a career 35% 3pt shooter. His role on this team though is more garbage man-ish, more of a Josh Hairston type of role.
Backup forward Jan Svandrlik (6'7", 210lb senior JuCo transfer from Czech Republic) is the only other forward who plays regularly. Svandrlik is very much your classic Euro shooter: 44% 3pt shooter and 85.7% FT shooter for his career. He doesn't do much else though: 80% of his shots are from 3pt range, and he doesn't pass or rebound much.

Wings: The perimeter guys are where Iona makes its living. They are not at all afraid to play four guards/wings at a time. The starter is Zach Lewis (6'3", 185lb grad transfer from UMass and Canisius). Lewis is the worst shooter of the perimeter guys for the Gaels, at about 33%. He's a versatile guard, though, who does a little of everything for them. And despite not being a good shooter on average, Lewis is in the midst of a very strong stretch for the Gaels, averaging 14.5 ppg and shooting 39% from 3, and was terrific in the MAAC tourney (18.3 ppg, 41% from 3). So he certainly can't be ignored out there. Lewis also leads the team in steals per minute. The other key wing is Deyshonee Much (6'5", 180lb fifth-year senior). Much is a dynamite shooter and good athlete who gets a decent amount of steals as the team's sixth man. Much and Lewis provide what little length the Gaels have on the perimeter, and are extremely versatile players that play multiple positions for the Gaels.

Guards: The guys that make the team go are their guards. Rickey McGill (6'1", 175lb junior) is the star of the team. McGill is a terrific athlete and is fearless with the ball. He does a bit of everything, leading them in scoring and assists and steals, while being #3 in rebounds. He has steadily improved his 3pt shooting, and is up to 38.5% this year. But he's streaky from 3. Where McGill is best is attacking the basket. He's a handful, but I think the zone defense is good for helping contain him. Historically, he's the type of guy that would give us fits in man-to-man. The other guard is Schadrac Casimir (5'10", 165lb redshirt junior). Casimir is lightning quick, but tiny. He has had an interesting career arc: he was a 14.5 ppg scorer as a freshman for a very good Iona team led by AJ English. Then, he got hurt as a soph. Last year, he was a reserve. Now, he's back to starting, but as more of a tertiary option. Casimir is a very dangerous shooter (46% from 3). But I think Duke's length in the zone will cause him problems. CJ Seaforth (6'1", 155lb frosh) is the only other guard who sees any time. Seaforth can really shoot (44% from 3) but does little else productively. He's unlikely to play in this one unless things go badly for their guards.

At their biggest, Iona is very overmatched in size. And Iona rarely plays at their biggest. They'll often have a 6'5" guy at "PF" and a 6'3" guy at "SF", with two guys 6'1" or shorter at guard. So they'll be giving up 2-3 inches on the perimeter much of the time, and 3-5 inches in the frontcourt. If we played man-to-man, I think the Gaels would give us trouble by spreading us out. But in the zone, I don't have quite as much concern. Not that they couldn't shock us. But it would be a shock. This is a game we should win.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Why not Oklahoma? They aren't very good-the only reason there are in the tournament is marketing--the committee couldn't bear to leave Trae Young at home.

I'll take a stab at it.....one reason I wouldn't want to face them necessarily...although I don't disagree with your two points above:

The entire OK team will hear all week how they're only in due to Trae, how they don't deserve it, how they shouldn't be there, etc. When athletes hear this, for a week, they tend to internalize it and play at their highest level possible. There are many examples of this, in college FB and BB. The "dis" card is a powerful powerful thing.

Off top of my head, there was no way Vince Young and Texas was going to beat USC for the national title.
There was no way Louisville was going to beat Florida in a bowl game. Or Boise beating Oklahoma?
Or NC State beating Houston? Villanova beating Georgetown?
Or UConn's entire run to their last two national championships?

All these guys are elite athletes, with a very thin margin between them. This kind of motivation has been shown to overcome that margin in many many cases, and it is definitely fueled by the public comments and predictions.

[gam7]

Iona's records at sports-reference.com are not complete, but it looks like Iona (and Valvano) were 3-2 against Army (and K) during the 1976-1980 five-year span.

Whoa, they own-a'd him...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'll take a stab at it....one reason I wouldn't want to face them necessarily...although I don't disagree with your two points above:

The entire OK team will hear all week how they're only in due to Trae, how they don't deserve it, how they shouldn't be there, etc. When athletes hear this, for a week, they tend to internalize it and play at their highest level possible. There are many examples of this, in college FB and BB. The "dis" card is a powerful powerful thing.

Off top of my head, there was no way Vince Young and Texas was going to beat USC for the national title.
There was no way Louisville was going to beat Florida in a bowl game. Or Boise beating Oklahoma?
Or NC State beating Houston? Villanova beating Georgetown?
Or UConn's entire run to their last two national championships?

All these guys are elite athletes, with a very thin margin between them. This kind of motivation has been shown to overcome that margin in many many cases, and it is definitely fueled by the public comments and predictions.

And this doesn't even touch Duke's painful history inside and outside of the tournament, dealing with speedy talented guards scoring in bunches.

[uh_no]

Our offense has been somewhere between very good and fine.

ehhhh....

syracuse: adj 104 = below national average
VT: adj 102 = even worse
UNC R2 H1: adj 78 = pitiful
UNC R3: 104

Those are neither very good nor fine numbers...They are between below-average and bad.

[COYS]

ehhhh...

syracuse: adj 104 = below national average
VT: adj 102 = even worse
UNC R2 H1: adj 78 = pitiful
UNC R3: 104

Those are neither very good nor fine numbers...They are between below-average and bad.

You're right. perhaps "Meh" would have been a better adjective.

[UrinalCake]

You can pretty much throw out the numbers and the scouting reports. The team that Iona has been all season is not the same team we will face. It’s like if I had to make a presentation to my CEO at work, and somebody watched film of me coming into work every day all year as an indication of how good my presentation would be. Kind of a bad example but my point being they will put more preparation and more effort into this game than at any point all season.

With that said, I think the only way they beat us is by getting hot from three, which they seem capable of doing. I imagine we’ll extend our zone right up to the 3 point line and have our wing defenders cheat up, leaving a single big in the post. Will be important to have everyone committed to rebounding after the shot goes up.

[gocanes0506]

My hope is:

We dont have to play Duval at all. Let the man rest his ankle.
3/4 court the mess out of them.
We go really deep in this game. Playing Goldwire even to stop their guards early.
Use the big 4 to wear out their bigs and get them into foul trouble early. Let MBIII, Carter, and Bolden do work in the post. Hopefully have Delaurier do high screen and rolls for Alley oops and backdoor layups.
The freshmen realize its crunch time and its time to push their game into another level.
limit the turnovers
Grayson pulls it together because this team seems to play to its competition (yes that is a knock on the Holes)
This game starts a good run for the team

[Devilwin]

Maybe Carolina was just missing lots of easy shots. The fact they were constantly getting those wide open chippies concerns me. They shoot 40% we lose by 15.
That zone has a gaping hole in it that shows no signs of closing. From about six feet out to the free throw line.

[uh_no]

You're right. perhaps "Meh" would have been a better adjective.

Fair enough. I think the most optimistic takeaway, though, is that we've seen flashes of really good offense. UNC 2H (both times around), ND (entire game). And it's possible that the cuse/VT/UNC R2 games are explained by re-integrating marvin, at which point the team figured it out, and after that, some of it can be attributed to the duval injury. That's at least one possible explanation.

We did have a very bad stretch to start the game vs UNC the other night before clawing back before duval got hurt.

In any case, HOPEFULLY we're a week and a half away from needing a better than meh offense to win....and HOPEFULLY by that time duval is back to 100% and carter is at 100% and we are at the "integration level" that we saw in UNC H2 and ND.

[Ian]

And this doesn't even touch Duke's painful history inside and outside of the tournament, dealing with speedy talented guards scoring in bunches.

Speedy guard who can drive is a killer against the pressure m2m, the book has been out on how to beat Duke's D for years. And a lot of teams, even in the mid-majors, have speedy guards. Hopefully the switch to zone means people have to rewrite the book on how to beat Duke.

[Ian]

Maybe Carolina was just missing lots of easy shots. The fact they were constantly getting those wide open chippies concerns me. They shoot 40% we lose by 15.
That zone has a gaping hole in it that shows no signs of closing. From about six feet out to the free throw line.

Once again, a defense cannot guard every spot on the floor. So the trade off is to guard the most efficienct shots and in exchange allow the most inefficient shots. The midrange jumper is the most inefficient shot in basketball. The most efficent is the layup and the FT line followed by the 3 pt shot. The zone allows Duke to avoid all three. (Duke is the #1 in the country avoiding sending opponent to the FT line). Yes, when they make it it looks really easy. But really nobody makes more than 45% of them. It looks bad when they score on 2 or 3 consequetive possessions , but over the course of the entire game, since the switch to the zone, every team has struggled to score efficiently against Duke.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Speedy guard who can drive is a killer against the pressure m2m, the book has been out on how to beat Duke's D for years. And a lot of teams, even in the mid-majors, have speedy guards. Hopefully the switch to zone means people have to rewrite the book on how to beat Duke.

Agreed. I guess my current nauseated sensation thinking about Trae Young is probably just conditioning over the years.

UNC wrote the book on how to beat our zone last Friday: very good interior passing, an inability to miss 8-12 foot jumpers in the lane, and random flurries of three pointers.

:eye roll:

[COYS]

Fair enough. I think the most optimistic takeaway, though, is that we've seen flashes of really good offense. UNC 2H (both times around), ND (entire game). And it's possible that the cuse/VT/UNC R2 games are explained by re-integrating marvin, at which point the team figured it out, and after that, some of it can be attributed to the duval injury. That's at least one possible explanation.

We did have a very bad stretch to start the game vs UNC the other night before clawing back before duval got hurt.

In any case, HOPEFULLY we're a week and a half away from needing a better than meh offense to win...and HOPEFULLY by that time duval is back to 100% and carter is at 100% and we are at the "integration level" that we saw in UNC H2 and ND.

While the offense has sputtered at times, you're very right that there have been a number of big disruptions over this span, including Marvin's injury and reintegration, and then Trevon's ankle sprain right when we really needed him to be a spark against UNC. And, while it does nothing to alter the unfortunate outcome, if you take away that horrid first 8 minutes against UNC, we actually outscored them the rest of the way. That opening 8 minutes was truly the pit of despair for our offense. It really can't get any worse than that. If we merely played "meh" offense during that span, we could very well have won the game.

At any rate, I am personally very encouraged by our consistent defense. It has kept us in every single one of our games, even when our offense has not been operating well. There is usually at least one defensive slug-fest in any champions' path to the Final Four. The 2015 team beat a tough Utah squad despite scoring under 1 PPP. The 2010 team won the title game despite only scoring 1 PPP against Butler. While we can't afford to play as badly on offense as we did against UNC in the ACCT, our defense can put us in a position to win as long as our offense is respectable. That was not the case earlier in the season or at any point in 2017 or 2016.

I also can't help but wonder if our opponents' free throw percentage is set to regress to the mean. Our opponents have simply not been missing from the stripe, especially since conference play began. KenPom has us as the 260th "unluckiest" team. I would imagine opponent free throw percentage has at least a little bit to do with this. Maybe we'll get a little bit more lucky in the NCAAT.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agreed. I guess my current nauseated sensation thinking about Trae Young is probably just conditioning over the years.

UNC wrote the book on how to beat our zone last Friday: very good interior passing, an inability to miss 8-12 foot jumpers in the lane, and random flurries of three pointers.

:eye roll:

Hitting that 8-12 wide open jumper isn't easy; UNC executed that to perfection. It created a lot of panic that, when UNC had done that 4-5 times, the entire Duke defense collapsed, creating openings on the perimeter. And UNC again capitalized. The zone needs to be more disciplined in that manner; do not collapse on the middle or else solid passing teams with 3 point threats will kill you.

I want to face speedy guards now; our zone and our rim protector are good enough the mitigate those risks (except in transition).

[FerryFor50]

Hitting that 8-12 wide open jumper isn't easy; UNC executed that to perfection. It created a lot of panic that, when UNC had done that 4-5 times, the entire Duke defense collapsed, creating openings on the perimeter. And UNC again capitalized. The zone needs to be more disciplined in that manner; do not collapse on the middle or else solid passing teams with 3 point threats will kill you.

I want to face speedy guards now; our zone and our rim protector are good enough the mitigate those risks (except in transition).

To be fair, having a hobbled Wendell Carter in the middle didn't help defend those mid range shots. Neither did having a slower, less aware Marques Bolden.

Plus, not having Trevon Duval at 100% to bother passing lanes with his length and quickness didn't help either.

Yet, despite all that, Duke still had a chance to tie the game at the end. Not worried about the defense at all.

Offense, however, has been an adventure.

[FerryFor50]

Once again, a defense cannot guard every spot on the floor. So the trade off is to guard the most efficienct shots and in exchange allow the most inefficient shots. The midrange jumper is the most inefficient shot in basketball. The most efficent is the layup and the FT line followed by the 3 pt shot. The zone allows Duke to avoid all three. (Duke is the #1 in the country avoiding sending opponent to the FT line). Yes, when they make it it looks really easy. But really nobody makes more than 45% of them. It looks bad when they score on 2 or 3 consequetive possessions , but over the course of the entire game, since the switch to the zone, every team has struggled to score efficiently against Duke.

I'd much rather lose to a team that can attack the middle of the zone consistently than watch a layup line or three point barrage take us down.

Why? There aren't a ton of teams that can effectively attack the middle of the zone. Especially not if Wendell Carter is healthy and stays out of foul trouble.

[Kedsy]

UNC wrote the book on how to beat our zone last Friday: very good interior passing, an inability to miss 8-12 foot jumpers in the lane, and random flurries of three pointers.


Hitting that 8-12 wide open jumper isn't easy; UNC executed that to perfection. It created a lot of panic that, when UNC had done that 4-5 times, the entire Duke defense collapsed, creating openings on the perimeter. And UNC again capitalized. The zone needs to be more disciplined in that manner; do not collapse on the middle or else solid passing teams with 3 point threats will kill you.

I want to face speedy guards now; our zone and our rim protector are good enough the mitigate those risks (except in transition).

If UNC's performance last Friday represents the best an opposing offense can do to us, we should be in pretty good shape. Our adjusted defensive efficiency against them was approximately 84 (which is Virginia-level defense).

[English]

For those concerned about Duke's recent dip in offense, and (somehow) about the propensity for the zone to concede the mid-range jumper, here's another stat that might ease that anxiety slightly--well, as much as any quantitative analysis can this time of year:

According to Torvik's metrics, Duke has the best Adjusted Efficiency margin in the nation over the past 10 games (the games that are likeliest to speak to how teams are playing NOW). Duke is 26th in AdjO (119.1) and FIRST in AdjD (83.8). That's an encouraging place to be.

For comparision:
- Kansas is 10th
- Mich St is 11th

(unx is 6th, UVA 4th, Nova 3rd, Mich 2nd)

ETA: As mentioned before, Iona's tallest frontcourt player is 6'8. It goes 6'6, 6'7, 6'8. With the way the zone maintains our bigs nearer the basket, rather than chasing guys around ball screens on the perimeter, Duke has a MAJOR size advantage in their first round game.

[robed deity]

Fair enough. I think the most optimistic takeaway, though, is that we've seen flashes of really good offense. UNC 2H (both times around), ND (entire game). And it's possible that the cuse/VT/UNC R2 games are explained by re-integrating marvin, at which point the team figured it out, and after that, some of it can be attributed to the duval injury. That's at least one possible explanation.

We did have a very bad stretch to start the game vs UNC the other night before clawing back before duval got hurt.

In any case, HOPEFULLY we're a week and a half away from needing a better than meh offense to win...and HOPEFULLY by that time duval is back to 100% and carter is at 100% and we are at the "integration level" that we saw in UNC H2 and ND.

K has always gone to his best players in clear out/iso situations incessantly, with Parker/Ingram/Tatum etc. Usually with good results. Those guys didn't need very good passes, because they just got it on the wing and went to work. There was nothing the other team could do.
This year, our best offensive players are bigs, and without consistent guard play and ability to make entry passes, it's been harder to get them the ball. Throw in better scouting and that the zone has really slowed games down putting more of an emphasis on half court offense (ie not as many easy basket run outs) and our offensive efficiency has fallen.

I don't think there will magically be better post entries or our bigs holding better position for longer. And teams will continue to clog the lane against us. So the question is, what tweaks can be applied? I'm not sure what the answer is but as TM was saying above, some diversification is needed. And as many have said all season, a turnover with this group is a truly awful outcome of a possession. We lead the nation in offensive rebound percentage, so getting it to the rim should be even more of a priority.
I have to think, with the talent and a few minor changes, the offense can start to be efficient (enough anyway, with how effective the zone is) to make a deep run. But it should not be as simple as hoping UNC 2nd half Duval is the new norm.

What has me encouraged is we are just talking about 2-3 possessions a game difference here, because as COYS said, even on games we feel the team played "poorly", they are still right there in the end against elite teams.

[COYS]

Hitting that 8-12 wide open jumper isn't easy; UNC executed that to perfection. It created a lot of panic that, when UNC had done that 4-5 times, the entire Duke defense collapsed, creating openings on the perimeter. And UNC again capitalized. The zone needs to be more disciplined in that manner; do not collapse on the middle or else solid passing teams with 3 point threats will kill you.

I want to face speedy guards now; our zone and our rim protector are good enough the mitigate those risks (except in transition).

I agree with this. The idea that UNC solved our zone is a little overblown. Yes, they played better against it than anyone else has. Yes, they hit midrange jumpers. Yes, they beat us. But they still fell below KenPom's expectations for them against our defense. In fact, they BARELY fared better than Notre Dame on a points per possession basis. Just like we did against ND, we made adjustments to defend against the ways UNC was beating us in the middle. With better execution on offense, we would have won. Losing to UNC is never fun. Losing out on a shot at a 1 seed was a major bummer. However, if there was anything encouraging about that game, it was that our defense was still really good even though UNC hit mid range jumpers and grabbed a lot of offensive boards. UNC has one of the best offenses we'll see even if we make it all the way to the Final Four. That our defense can hold an offense like that in check (or at least limit it) over two full games is a very good sign.

Now if we can just get OUR offense operating at peak efficiency again . . .

[FerryFor50]

If UNC's performance last Friday represents the best an opposing offense can do to us, we should be in pretty good shape. Our adjusted defensive efficiency against them was approximately 84 (which is Virginia-level defense).

Not sure I understand the hand wringing about the defense against UNC. They did what every team tries to do against a 2-3 zone; it's not some secret.

The hand wringing should be over turnovers and the offense right now. The defense has been consistently great since we went to the zone.

[Flyers52]

I'm a graduate of Manhattan College, and Iona is our biggest rival (although they've owned MC the last few years). I've watched them play countless times, and they're very well coached. Talent wise they're not as good as they've been the last few years.

The best players on the Gaels are guards Ricky McGill & Schadrac Casimir (Jr Guards, around 5'10"-6' or so- very quick, very good decision makers), TK Edogi (6'8 - perfect MAAC player, blocks a ton of shots and doesn't leave his feet too often, and is very active on the boards on both sides), Deyshonee Much (Sr, lights out shooter), Roland Griffin (6'8- a poor conference's Amile Jefferson). Iona is coached by Tim Cluess who is a legend on the Long Island HS hoops scene. He coached Danny Green in HS, and shortly after Green graduated, Cluess moved on the Suffolk County Selden, CW Post, and then up to Iona. He's a very good coach who meticulously plans, and will get his guys up to play to the Blue Devils, but the difference between the MAAC and Duke will be obvious.

[Ian]

Agreed. I guess my current nauseated sensation thinking about Trae Young is probably just conditioning over the years.

UNC wrote the book on how to beat our zone last Friday: very good interior passing, an inability to miss 8-12 foot jumpers in the lane, and random flurries of three pointers.

:eye roll:

And even with that, and 18 offensive rebounds, UNC managed only 1.04 PPP. Their TS% in the game was .474 with an EFG% of .444
BTW, in the finals against UVA, UNC managed 1.09 PPP. Their TS% in the game was .552 with an EFG% of .510.

The difference between the two games is that while Duke did a even better job stopping UNC from scoring, UVA far exceeded Duke with offensive execution and efficiency.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Not sure I understand the hand wringing about the defense against UNC. They did what every team tries to do against a 2-3 zone; it's not some secret.

The hand wringing should be over turnovers and the offense right now. The defense has been consistently great since we went to the zone.

Oh, I didn't mean to insinuate that my concern about our defense was sincere. My point was that UNC did EVERYTHING correctly, and that the odds of another opponent could repeating that formula are quite slim.

I think this year's Duke team beats UNC seven out of ten times. Given that, I would love to play them one more time this year... I suspect we would be very unlikely to have that horrid ten minute start, and they would be even less likely to repeat their offensive moves against out defense.

[WakeDevil]

Once again, a defense cannot guard every spot on the floor. So the trade off is to guard the most efficienct shots and in exchange allow the most inefficient shots. The midrange jumper is the most inefficient shot in basketball. The most efficent is the layup and the FT line followed by the 3 pt shot. The zone allows Duke to avoid all three. (Duke is the #1 in the country avoiding sending opponent to the FT line). Yes, when they make it it looks really easy. But really nobody makes more than 45% of them. It looks bad when they score on 2 or 3 consequetive possessions , but over the course of the entire game, since the switch to the zone, every team has struggled to score efficiently against Duke.

This is an excellent analysis, except for your use of efficient instead of effective.:cool:

[Troublemaker]

If UNC's performance last Friday represents the best an opposing offense can do to us, we should be in pretty good shape. Our adjusted defensive efficiency against them was approximately 84 (which is Virginia-level defense).

How do you guys calculate this again? I have a feeling it's elementary fractions (ratios) but want to make sure. Can you "show your work" for this math problem and how you got 84. Thanks.

[MarkD83]

I'm a graduate of Manhattan College, and Iona is our biggest rival (although they've owned MC the last few years). I've watched them play countless times, and they're very well coached. Talent wise they're not as good as they've been the last few years.

The best players on the Gaels are guards Ricky McGill & Schadrac Casimir (Jr Guards, around 5'10"-6' or so- very quick, very good decision makers), TK Edogi (6'8 - perfect MAAC player, blocks a ton of shots and doesn't leave his feet too often, and is very active on the boards on both sides), Deyshonee Much (Sr, lights out shooter), Roland Griffin (6'8- a poor conference's Amile Jefferson). Iona is coached by Tim Cluess who is a legend on the Long Island HS hoops scene. He coached Danny Green in HS, and shortly after Green graduated, Cluess moved on the Suffolk County Selden, CW Post, and then up to Iona. He's a very good coach who meticulously plans, and will get his guys up to play to the Blue Devils, but the difference between the MAAC and Duke will be obvious.

Thanks for the info. Given the discussion of Duke's zone defense, do you see anyone on the Gaels who would be able to settle in at the foul line and hit a mid-range jumper or pass to open 3-pt shooters? Very quick guards don't worry me when the zone is set-up but do worry me if Duke is turnover prone.

When Duke is on offense, do they play a lot of man-to-man and if so how would they handle the high-low passing of Wendell and Marvin? If Duke can get the interior passing going then I am not too worried about the offensive end of the court.

[flyingdutchdevil]

If UNC's performance last Friday represents the best an opposing offense can do to us, we should be in pretty good shape. Our adjusted defensive efficiency against them was approximately 84 (which is Virginia-level defense).

I really like our defense. I think UNC did a solid job against it. And once we got uber focused in the last 4 min, that defense was downright scary.

[mpj96]

The Gaels are a pretty nice matchup for our first round game. They aren't a completely senior-dominated squad like many of the 14/15/16 matchups are. They finished 4th in the MAAC (11-7 record), with their best win on the season being a home win over Rider (KenPom #139). That being said, they did give Syracuse, St. John's, and Rhode Island decent games, staying within 10 points on the road in all 3 of those games. So they aren't a terrible team. But they aren't the type of 15 seed that should scare anyone an inordinate amount.

The Gaels like to play fast (#56 in D1 in adjusted tempo) and shoot 3s (40.8% of their shots are 3s, and they make 38.8% of them). They don't rebound at all, though: 301st in offensive rebounding and 254th in defensive rebounding. So we should dominate the glass. They do a good job of avoiding turnovers (top-40 nationally), and don't foul a ton. But they don't really play any defense, especially inside. They are outside the top-200 in overall defensive efficiency, and 238th in defending 2pt shots. All of this is as you might expect from an undersized team, and, well, they are an undersized team.

Center: TK Edogi (6'8", 220lb grad transfer from Tulsa) is the center. Edogi wasn't quite good enough for the AAC, so he decided to add an M in the front and found a good home in the MAAC. Edogi is a solid rebounder and decent shotblocker at the low-major level, but will be giving up a LOT of size in this one. Foul trouble is also likely to be an issue for him. The Gaels have a couple of other bigs who rarely play but might get forced into action. Gavin Kensemil (6'7", 230lb freshman from Suriname) and Tyrell Williams (6'9", 250lb senior JuCo transfer) both may be forced to see the floor in this one. The two have combined for less than 300 career D1 minutes over 3 combined seasons. Williams is a good rebounder and shotblocker but also a foul machine (47 fouls in 188 career minutes). Kensemil is even more foul prone and raw (29 fouls in 103 minutes).

Forwards: EJ Crawford (6'6", 210lb sophomore) is a bit of a doughy wing forward, and not the most athletic guy around, but he can score from all over the court. His offensive game has some similarities to that of Gary Trent, although he is obviously not nearly as good (nor is he in nearly as good a shape as Trent): able to score from the midrange or from 3, more of an old-man's game in terms of finding ways to score off the dribble. Crawford will also see some time at PF given his size relative to his teammates. Behind (and often beside) Crawford is Roland Griffin (6'7", 215lb junior JuCo transfer also from Illinois State) is the starting forward for the Gaels. Griffin is more of a SF asked to play PF than a true PF. He's an very high-energy, hard-working player on the court. Griffin is a rugged forward, but capable of playing as a stretch 4. He hasn't shot the 3 much this year, but he is a career 35% 3pt shooter. His role on this team though is more garbage man-ish, more of a Josh Hairston type of role.
Backup forward Jan Svandrlik (6'7", 210lb senior JuCo transfer from Czech Republic) is the only other forward who plays regularly. Svandrlik is very much your classic Euro shooter: 44% 3pt shooter and 85.7% FT shooter for his career. He doesn't do much else though: 80% of his shots are from 3pt range, and he doesn't pass or rebound much.

Wings: The perimeter guys are where Iona makes its living. They are not at all afraid to play four guards/wings at a time. The starter is Zach Lewis (6'3", 185lb grad transfer from UMass and Canisius). Lewis is the worst shooter of the perimeter guys for the Gaels, at about 33%. He's a versatile guard, though, who does a little of everything for them. And despite not being a good shooter on average, Lewis is in the midst of a very strong stretch for the Gaels, averaging 14.5 ppg and shooting 39% from 3, and was terrific in the MAAC tourney (18.3 ppg, 41% from 3). So he certainly can't be ignored out there. Lewis also leads the team in steals per minute. The other key wing is Deyshonee Much (6'5", 180lb fifth-year senior). Much is a dynamite shooter and good athlete who gets a decent amount of steals as the team's sixth man. Much and Lewis provide what little length the Gaels have on the perimeter, and are extremely versatile players that play multiple positions for the Gaels.

Guards: The guys that make the team go are their guards. Rickey McGill (6'1", 175lb junior) is the star of the team. McGill is a terrific athlete and is fearless with the ball. He does a bit of everything, leading them in scoring and assists and steals, while being #3 in rebounds. He has steadily improved his 3pt shooting, and is up to 38.5% this year. But he's streaky from 3. Where McGill is best is attacking the basket. He's a handful, but I think the zone defense is good for helping contain him. Historically, he's the type of guy that would give us fits in man-to-man. The other guard is Schadrac Casimir (5'10", 165lb redshirt junior). Casimir is lightning quick, but tiny. He has had an interesting career arc: he was a 14.5 ppg scorer as a freshman for a very good Iona team led by AJ English. Then, he got hurt as a soph. Last year, he was a reserve. Now, he's back to starting, but as more of a tertiary option. Casimir is a very dangerous shooter (46% from 3). But I think Duke's length in the zone will cause him problems. CJ Seaforth (6'1", 155lb frosh) is the only other guard who sees any time. Seaforth can really shoot (44% from 3) but does little else productively. He's unlikely to play in this one unless things go badly for their guards.

At their biggest, Iona is very overmatched in size. And Iona rarely plays at their biggest. They'll often have a 6'5" guy at "PF" and a 6'3" guy at "SF", with two guys 6'1" or shorter at guard. So they'll be giving up 2-3 inches on the perimeter much of the time, and 3-5 inches in the frontcourt. If we played man-to-man, I think the Gaels would give us trouble by spreading us out. But in the zone, I don't have quite as much concern. Not that they couldn't shock us. But it would be a shock. This is a game we should win.

Thanks, CDu for the excellent summary. Apparently I must spread some comments around before giving you more props. That was exactly the kind of analysis I dialed in hoping to learn.

[heartofgold]

UNC has one of the best offenses we'll see even if we make it all the way to the Final Four.

I think we have to be cautious of the team that suddenly gets hot on offense - South Carolina comes top of mind. Thankfully our defense appears to have made substantial enough strides to mitigate this risk as compared to last year's team but still, zone defenses do have their weaknesses. If they didn't everyone would be playing them.

Turnovers is the variable we still don't seem to have an answer for. There is no way we will advance if we can't improve our decision making. How do we develop confidence that it will improve? Grayson is a senior and continues to be prone to freshman mistakes. Can that change now? And Duval, well he is a freshman. Can he really grow up in the next week? I wonder if our high offensive rating depends on our taking so many chances with the ball? In other words, if we protect the ball better, does that mean our offense suffers disproportionately? If that's the answer, then lower turnovers is a wish we might want to be careful to ask for.

[brevity]

Agreed. I guess my current nauseated sensation thinking about Trae Young is probably just conditioning over the years.

UNC wrote the book on how to beat our zone last Friday: very good interior passing, an inability to miss 8-12 foot jumpers in the lane, and random flurries of three pointers.

I don't understand. How can a bunch of illiterates write a book?

And why are we talking about Oklahoma, a team Duke might not play at all, in the Iona thread? That discussion belongs in the Midwest Region thread, not here. Anyone who is so easily dismissive of Duke's actual opponent has not been paying enough attention this season. Regrettably, this Duke squad is too sportsmanlike, almost always finding a way to keep it close.


The best players on the Gaels are guards Ricky McGill & Schadrac Casimir (Jr Guards, around 5'10"-6' or so- very quick, very good decision makers), TK Edogi (6'8 - perfect MAAC player, blocks a ton of shots and doesn't leave his feet too often, and is very active on the boards on both sides), Deyshonee Much (Sr, lights out shooter), Roland Griffin (6'8- a poor conference's Amile Jefferson).

Now we're talking. But which big guy is the Shaq of the MAAC?


Iona's records at sports-reference.com are not complete, but it looks like Iona (and Valvano) were 3-2 against Army (and K) during the 1976-1980 five-year span.

Years ago I had the audiobook* of Jim Valvano reading his memoir, with the morbidly humorous title They Gave Me a Lifetime Contract, and Then They Declared Me Dead. He mentions the folly of introducing himself back when he was the Gaels coach.

"Hi. I'm Jim Valvano, Iona College."
"You OWN a college?"

* I need to find that audiobook. A used copy is $210 on Amazon! (https://www.amazon.com/Valvano-They-Lifetime-Contract-Declared/dp/0671732544)

[uh_no]

How do you guys calculate this again? I have a feeling it's elementary fractions (ratios) but want to make sure. Can you "show your work" for this math problem and how you got 84. Thanks.

simplest way is to take raw efficiency and subtract the difference between the other teams "intrinsic" efficiency and the national average. In the case of the UNC game:

74/72 = raw efficiency
122= UNC intrinsic
105 = average

103 - (122-105) = 86

You can also do it geometrically:

103 / (122/105) = 88

and get results within a couple....which is within a margin of error anyway

You can add or subtract a couple for HCA if you want....but it's all rough anyway. If you want to be really precise you can count number of actual possessions rather than the approximate variant (FGA + TO - OReb + .475*FTA), which KP then averages across both teams.

[sagegrouse]

simplest way is to take raw efficiency and subtract the difference between the other teams "intrinsic" efficiency and the national average. In the case of the UNC game:

74/72 = raw efficiency
122= UNC intrinsic
105 = average

103 - (122-105) = 86

You can also do it geometrically:

103 / (122/105) = 88

and get results within a couple...which is within a margin of error anyway

You can add or subtract a couple for HCA if you want...but it's all rough anyway. If you want to be really precise you can count number of actual possessions rather than the approximate variant (FGA + TO - OReb + .475*FTA), which KP then averages across both teams.

I dunno, Troublemaker, it seems like the normal approach is points divided by no. of possessions; then multiplied by 100. The latter is shots (FGA plus a fraction [0.475] of FT attempts) minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers. I get 83 possessions for UNC and only 73 points. That's a defensive efficiency score of 89.

I didn't follow what uh_no wrote.

[uh_no]

I dunno, Troublemaker, it seems like the normal approach is points divided by no. of possessions; then multiplied by 100. The latter is shots (FGA plus a fraction [0.475] of FT attempts) minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers. I get 83 possessions for UNC and only 73 points. That's a defensive efficiency score of 89.

I didn't follow what uh_no wrote.

71 FGA - 18 OR + 13 TO + .475 * 15 FTA = 73 posessions

Your math is off somewhere. My post was about how you take the raw number ~1ppp and get the adjusted number ~.86 or so.

[CDu]

I dunno, Troublemaker, it seems like the normal approach is points divided by no. of possessions; then multiplied by 100. The latter is shots (FGA plus a fraction [0.475] of FT attempts) minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers. I get 83 possessions for UNC and only 73 points. That's a defensive efficiency score of 89.

I didn't follow what uh_no wrote.

What you are calculating is unadjusted efficiency. Although, I think your math is off. My guess is because you added off. rebounds and subtracted turnovers (you are off on possessions by 10, and the difference in off. rebounds and turnovers was 5.

UNC had 71 FGA and 15 FTA. That equates to approximately 78.125 possessions ignoring rebounds and turnovers. They had 18 offensive rebounds, bringing the possessions estimate down to 60.125. They also had 13 turnovers, bumping it up to 73.125 possessions estimated.

They scored 74, so the unadjusted efficiency is 74/73.125, or just above 1.

You then adjust by how good UNC’s offense is supposed to be relative to average (using either formula uh_no presented). That is how you get down to the upper 80s.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I really like our defense. I think UNC did a solid job against it. And once we got uber focused in the last 4 min, that defense was downright scary.

That uber focus seems to come when we extend and trap.

[flyingdutchdevil]

That uber focus seems to come when we extend and trap.

Uber focus seems to come when we're down 10+ points ;)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Uber focus seems to come when we're down 10+ points ;)

That too :cool:

And of course, not mutually exclusive concepts either...:)

[CDu]

I really like our defense. I think UNC did a solid job against it. And once we got uber focused in the last 4 min, that defense was downright scary.

Even prior to the last 4+ minutes, though, our adjusted defensive efficiency was still quite solid. We gave up 72 points on 63 possessions, which was good for an adjusted dEff of 97 or 98 depending on your conversion metric. That is still a roughly top-40 defensive performance.

And that was against a terrible matchup for us, and against a team that had just played us a week earlier. And with one of our key defenders playing with a bum ankle, and missing a huge stretch during which UNC scored a bunch of those 72 points.

Our defense against UNC when Duval was on the floor was VERY good.

[Flyers52]

Thanks for the info. Given the discussion of Duke's zone defense, do you see anyone on the Gaels who would be able to settle in at the foul line and hit a mid-range jumper or pass to open 3-pt shooters? Very quick guards don't worry me when the zone is set-up but do worry me if Duke is turnover prone.

When Duke is on offense, do they play a lot of man-to-man and if so how would they handle the high-low passing of Wendell and Marvin? If Duke can get the interior passing going then I am not too worried about the offensive end of the court.


Iona is made up of a lot of Jucos and upper classmen, who play with a chip.

Roland Griffin is their every-man. He killed the Jaspers three times this year, and does a lot that is not necessarily reflected on the stat sheet. From what I've seen, he's been their "Big" on the high post, with a slight tendency to drive once he catches (if he doesn't pass). Much & Zach Lewis are the primary shooters, with Casimir and McGill in the backcourt.

Can't say for certain regarding their defense, as Cluess does mix it up. Edogi is going to be big on the boards & attempting to block shots, he's not much of a scorer.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Uber focus seems to come when we're down 10+ points ;)
Maybe K can convince them to come out playing like they are already down 10.

[budwom]

A healthy and good decision making Duval is required for our long term success in the tournament (if not this weekend) so a gold doubloon to he or she who can pierce the outer shield of The Cone of Silence on the ankle. Success in doing so is not anticipated. Hope it's doing well. I expect to know at 2:45 on Thursday and not a minute before then.

[kshepinthehouse]

shrug. teams have seen elements of our zone for 2 months now. They've all been "practicing" it without much success. the only real success has been UNC the other night...and even their offense was severely depressed vs expectation...but I'm sure world beaters like the gaels are going to be the ones to decipher it.

They had success with an injured Duval in the game. Not sure how much success they would have had with a healthy Duval. I guess we will never know.

[kshepinthehouse]

Even prior to the last 4+ minutes, though, our adjusted defensive efficiency was still quite solid. We gave up 72 points on 63 possessions, which was good for an adjusted dEff of 97 or 98 depending on your conversion metric. That is still a roughly top-40 defensive performance.

And that was against a terrible matchup for us, and against a team that had just played us a week earlier. And with one of our key defenders playing with a bum ankle, and missing a huge stretch during which UNC scored a bunch of those 72 points.

Our defense against UNC when Duval was on the floor was VERY good.

Is there a metric for our defensive efficiency when duval was off the floor vs on?

[uh_no]

Is there a metric for our defensive efficiency when duval was off the floor vs on?

I can calculate it if someone has the time he went out/on. Though he was only out for ~3 minutes with the injury, during which UNC scored 10 points on ~10 possessions. From that perspective, the defensive was fine while he was out during that stretch, and mirrored the performance for the game as a whole. One could argue that the 2 points scored on the technical had nothing to do with him being off the floor either.

One should also note that our defense the first 35 minutes of the game was actually not great. In the last minutes, UNC scored 2 points on 9 possessions....which means the rest of the game they scored 72 on 63 possessions = 114, which adjusts to a 98 or so. It's not awful, but not great. Hard to know how much is attributable to the extended zone, UNC's stall ball, or just random occurrence.

Either way, if we score we win. if we have a healthy duval, I think we win.

[CDu]

I can calculate it if someone has the time he went out/on. Though he was only out for ~3 minutes with the injury, during which UNC scored 10 points on ~10 possessions. From that perspective, the defensive was fine while he was out during that stretch, and mirrored the performance for the game as a whole. One could argue that the 2 points scored on the technical had nothing to do with him being off the floor either.

One should also note that our defense the first 35 minutes of the game was actually not great. In the last minutes, UNC scored 2 points on 9 possessions...which means the rest of the game they scored 72 on 63 possessions = 114, which adjusts to a 98 or so. It's not awful, but not great. Hard to know how much is attributable to the extended zone, UNC's stall ball, or just random occurrence.

Either way, if we score we win. if we have a healthy duval, I think we win.

Duval went out at the 17:18 mark in the first half, and didn’t return until the 13 minute mark. In that 4:18, UNC scored 14 points in 7 possessions. The rest of the game they scored 60 points in 66 possessions. Or, if we take out those frenetic last 5 minutes, 58 points on 56 possessions. Which is really good when playing UNC.

[uh_no]

Duval went out at the 17:18 mark in the first half, and didn’t return until the 13 minute mark. In that 4:18, UNC scored 14 points in 7 possessions. The rest of the game they scored 60 points in 66 possessions.

I had the time all wrong :D thanks!

That's very telling. Amazing given that we know he stinks and this team is so much better when he's on the bench /s

From those numbers

Stall ball/extended zone: 2 points, 9 posessions = 5 (lol)
W/o TD: 14 points 7 possessions = 183
other: 58 points, 55 possessions = 88

so duke played their new-normal really good defense with even an injured duval on the floor NOT including the end-game. spectacular defense at the end, and awful defense without duval.

So that looks to me like UNC didn't figure squat out, and duke largely played the same great defense they have been playing.

[kshepinthehouse]

I had the time all wrong :D thanks!

That's very telling. Amazing given that we know he stinks and this team is so much better when he's on the bench /s

From those numbers

Stall ball/extended zone: 2 points, 9 posessions = 5 (lol)
W/o TD: 14 points 7 possessions = 183
other: 58 points, 55 possessions = 88

so duke played their new-normal really good defense with even an injured duval on the floor NOT including the end-game. spectacular defense at the end, and awful defense without duval.

So that looks to me like UNC didn't figure squat out, and duke largely played the same great defense they have been playing.

Good stuff here! Seems like our offense was equally terrible in the last 2 UNC games with a Duval on the bench.

[sagegrouse]

71 FGA - 18 OR + 13 TO + .475 * 15 FTA = 73 posessions

Your math is off somewhere. My post was about how you take the raw number ~1ppp and get the adjusted number ~.86 or so.

My math was off. Sorry for the confusion.

[uh_no]

Duval went out at the 17:18 mark in the first half, and didn’t return until the 13 minute mark. In that 4:18, UNC scored 14 points in 7 possessions. The rest of the game they scored 60 points in 66 possessions. Or, if we take out those frenetic last 5 minutes, 58 points on 56 possessions. Which is really good when playing UNC.

w/o duval: 2 points, 8 poss = 34 (lol)
w duval: 67 points, 64 poss = 113

So still low not great....maybe okay given the injured duval and gimpy carter and given we weren't hitting anything? especially since duval is the piece we needed to penetrate, and he showed its value in UNC R2.

If anyone is still questioning duval's value to this team....it's a lost cause.

[Bob Green]

But they don't really play any defense, especially inside. They are outside the top-200 in overall defensive efficiency, and 238th in defending 2pt shots. All of this is as you might expect from an undersized team, and, well, they are an undersized team.

Which is there primary defense, man-to-man or zone? Any chance they pack the inside with a tight zone and dare us to beat them from the 3 PT line?

[uh_no]

Which is there primary defense, man-to-man or zone? Any chance they pack the inside with a tight zone and dare us to beat them from the 3 PT line?

mmm lets have gary grayson wendell alex and justin light it up from 3 all day :D :D

[MarkD83]

Don't we struggle for some times in EVERY game? Seriously, until I see something different, I expect nothing but a roller coaster ride from this Duke team. I don't expect Iona or any other team to be easy. If Trent and Allen aren't shooting particularly well and they clog the lane on our bigs, we struggle. Iona gets hot from 3 for a period, we have a game on our hands. Duke can't seem to play well for more than 2-4 minute stretches, then we get turnovers and bad shots for a stretch. We have to hope our great 2-4 minute stretches are extraordinary enough to outweigh the inevitable bad play. As has been the case all season- Duke can lose to anyone, or beat anyone on any given night. That's just our reality this year.

Just getting caught up on this thread and I whole-heartedly agree with this. In addition, no matter what the venue if a top seed starts to play poorly the crowd, except for the top-seeds fans, will start to cheer against the top seed. This makes a neutral game feel more like a road game. This team has had extended stretches of poor play in road games all year.

[UrinalCake]

Duval is the key to that full court zone press. He’s so athletic and has something like a 6’7” wingspan and can really disrupt the PG trying to get the ball down the court, forcing them to psss from side to side. Allen is similar, and together they really cause a lot of havoc. As soon as Tre went out Alex took his place, who is nowhere near as good a defender so we had to drop back into the half court defense. Even when Tre came back, I think K was hesitant to try to press full court knowing he was hobbling. There were times where his limp was really noticeable.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Duval is the key to that full court zone press. He’s so athletic and has something like a 6’7” wingspan and can really disrupt the PG trying to get the ball down the court, forcing them to psss from side to side. Allen is similar, and together they really cause a lot of havoc. As soon as Tre went out Alex took his place, who is nowhere near as good a defender so we had to drop back into the half court defense. Even when Tre came back, I think K was hesitant to try to press full court knowing he was hobbling. There were times where his limp was really noticeable.

AGREE 100% - and I would add that Tre plays better offense when he's out pressing and trapping on D. It seems to get his athletic juices flowing. And of course, the fact that he often swipes a pass and dunks it doesn't hurt.

[CDu]

Which is there primary defense, man-to-man or zone? Any chance they pack the inside with a tight zone and dare us to beat them from the 3 PT line?

They play both man and 2-3 zone. Neither is very effective. They could certainly try to pack it in, but they are so small that I think we would still kill them on the offensive glass.

[Reilly]

In 1986, Duke ended up as #3 in SRS, and Mississippi Valley State was #179 -- a bigger disparity than Duke and Iona right now:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/1986-ratings.html

[subzero02]

In 1986, Duke ended up as #3 in SRS, and Mississippi Valley State was #179 -- a bigger disparity than Duke and Iona right now:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/1986-ratings.html


That game was played in Greensboro. I know unc played against Utah that same day but could not determine where they played.

[OldPhiKap]

In 1986, Duke ended up as #3 in SRS, and Mississippi Valley State was #179 -- a bigger disparity than Duke and Iona right now:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/1986-ratings.html

You just triggered me.

[Reilly]

That game was played in Greensboro. I know unc played against Utah that same day but could not determine where they played.

Ogden, UT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_NCAA_Division_I_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament

[subzero02]

Ogden, UT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_NCAA_Division_I_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament

They really got screwed then. Someone from Utah must have been on the committee... 14 seed utah vs. 3 seed unc in a first round game in Ogden utah. Still, I bet dean didn't complain as much as calipari did yesterday.

[heyman25]

Maybe K can convince them to come out playing like they are already down 10.

Hope this stupid play ended with UNC game. Spotting teams 10 or 12 or 14 points can't happen again.

Grayson, Gary and Trevon have to start fast. At least they now know this could be their last game in a Duke uniform. No more excuses. Bad officiating nasty crowd just ball and win.

[Saratoga2]

That uber focus seems to come when we extend and trap.

How long can we extend and trap without wearing the guys out. We really only have one perimeter sub. Another thought is that by extending and trapping, the other team may be able to make adjustments and negate the value of that activity.

The point of these comments is that extending and trapping is probably best used in short spurts. What we need to do is avoid stretches where we come out flat and find ourselves down by doubled digits, where the extend and trap is used to get back in the game instead of getting a nice lead.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

How long can we extend and trap without wearing the guys out. We really only have one perimeter sub. Another thought is that by extending and trapping, the other team may be able to make adjustments and negate the value of that activity.

The point of these comments is that extending and trapping is probably best used in short spurts. What we need to do is avoid stretches where we come out flat and find ourselves down by doubled digits, where the extend and trap is used to get back in the game instead of getting a nice lead.

Well I certainly was not advocating for extending the trap all the time, and while I am convinced it triggers the uber focus, especially in Duval, I don't think it's a requirement to keep trapping all game once that focus is going. I would, however, be for taking a look at more trap time and using the bench a few more minutes per game.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

You just triggered me.

Me too.....86 was my favorite team of all I think.......great team, played hard every game, and forever will have the first hoop ever scored at the Dean Dome (thanks Mark Alarie). The dadgum Miss Valley game was nothing short of trauma. I even remember their coaches name.....Lafayette Stribling. I mean, talk about useless trivia...but I cannot forget it.

[devilseven]

Me too....86 was my favorite team of all I think....great team, played hard every game, and forever will have the first hoop ever scored at the Dean Dome (thanks Mark Alarie). The dadgum Miss Valley game was nothing short of trauma. I even remember their coaches name....Lafayette Stribling. I mean, talk about useless trivia...but I cannot forget it.

Yes, great team that would have been national champions except for some guy named Bilas.

[Reilly]

You just triggered me.

I would say the off-topic board and "Ymm, Beer" might be a safe space to hang out until the nervousness passes, but that requires a passing interest in chemistry as well as a working knowledge of food pairings, and the fitness thread is all about guilt, so I'm at a loss -- it's a dangerous internet, the past is never past, and there's nothing we can do about it.

[proelitedota]

Iona has players that played in the past few NCAA tournaments. Does that usually matter when it comes to upset chances?

[socaldukie]

Has anyone heard anything on the current health of Duval? Sprains can be awfully difficult and time consuming to heal up. Is he practicing with the team?

[SavDukeGrad]

Has anyone heard anything on the current health of Duval? Sprains can be awfully difficult and time consuming to heal up. Is he practicing with the team?

I don't know anything about Duval's ankle, unfortunately. But I did see a quote from Coach K that said the team would practice at home today, then fly to Pittsburgh late in the day after practice. He also said that since it was Spring Break this week, they would be able to practice earlier and get more sleep. Hopefully that means more time for injury rehab too.

[GeneBanksManCrush]

Iona's records at sports-reference.com are not complete, but it looks like Iona (and Valvano) were 3-2 against Army (and K) during the 1976-1980 five-year span.

I can't help but remember Valvano's story from when he coached Iona. He'd attend various social functions and introduce himself as "Jim Valvano, Iona College", to which someone would invariably reply "You look awfully young to own a college."

[uh_no]

Has anyone heard anything on the current health of Duval?

this IS duke, you know :) if it weren't for TV, we might not even know what days they're playing on.

[budwom]

this IS duke, you know :) if it weren't for TV, we might not even know what days they're playing on.

Some things come and go in this wild, wacky world, but it's good to know the Cone of Silence is as impenetrable as ever!

[devildeac]

Yes, great team that would have been national champions except for some guy named Bilas.

But he'd probably blame the ncaa...

[proelitedota]

No one is noticing Iona's recent run?

NCAA tournament champions:
1979, 1980*, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2016 (13th seed), 2017 (14th seed), 2018

Conference tournament champions:
1982, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018

Their starters have underperformed this season, but this 13/14 seed level team if they play to their potential.

We're not going to have an easy game.

[uh_no]

No one is noticing Iona's recent run?

NCAA tournament champions:
1979, 1980*, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2016 (13th seed), 2017 (14th seed), 2018


Boy. guess we shouldn't even bother playing the thing. Iona's got it in the bag.

[devildeac]

No one is noticing Iona's recent run?

NCAA tournament champions:
1979, 1980*, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2016 (13th seed), 2017 (14th seed), 2018

Conference tournament champions:
1982, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018

Their starters have underperformed this season, but this 13/14 seed level team if they play to their potential.

We're not going to have an easy game.


Boy. guess we shouldn't even bother playing the thing. Iona's got it in the bag.

Yea, and I thought we won in 2001. :rolleyes:

[Reilly]

Lefty always referred to Iona as the UCLA of the North.

[OldPhiKap]

No one is noticing Iona's recent run?

NCAA tournament champions:
1979, 1980*, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2016 (13th seed), 2017 (14th seed), 2018

Conference tournament champions:
1982, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018

Their starters have underperformed this season, but this 13/14 seed level team if they play to their potential.

We're not going to have an easy game.

I assume you mean NCAA appearance, not champions? If so, that is still an impressive record.

Iona is a program, not a fluke. They will not be awed by playing us, or playing in the Big Dance. Having said that, our program's record is pretty darn good too.

[English]

No one is noticing Iona's recent run?

NCAA tournament champions:
1979, 1980*, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2016 (13th seed), 2017 (14th seed), 2018

Conference tournament champions:
1982, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018

Their starters have underperformed this season, but this 13/14 seed level team if they play to their potential.

We're not going to have an easy game.

I'm not sure where to even start with this one. Maybe I'm missing something--where did you get your hands on Biff Tannen's sports almanac that shows Iona winning the NCAAT 13x (was their 1980 Natty vacated, and thus the asterisk)?

[robed deity]

Not sure if anyone is watching the ridiculous ESPN marathon (snack food tournament? Really?), but they just had a segment with Laphonso Ellis, Rebecca Lobo, Bilas and Jaywill remembering NCAA tournament moments from their careers. Pretty cool to hear. Bilas discussed the '86 team and Jaywill told the story of his missed free throws against Indiana. He mentioned he was super nervous with "legs shaking" etc. Apparently Duhon yelled out words of encouragement- something like "these are going in Jay!", but then in the next breath told Boozer to get the rebound. Pretty funny to hear him tell it.

Curse you Bruce Benedict!

[devilseven]

Not sure if anyone is watching the ridiculous ESPN marathon (snack food tournament? Really?), but they just had a segment with Laphonso Ellis, Rebecca Lobo, Bilas and Jaywill remembering NCAA tournament moments from their careers. Pretty cool to hear. Bilas discussed the '86 team and Jaywill told the story of his missed free throws against Indiana. He mentioned he was super nervous with "legs shaking" etc. Apparently Duhon yelled out words of encouragement- something like "these are going in Jay!", but then in the next breath told Boozer to get the rebound. Pretty funny to hear him tell it.

Curse you Bruce Benedict!

How did Bilas explain being tottally dominated by Pervis Ellison?

[rsvman]

How did Bilas explain being tottally dominated by Pervis Ellison?

The NCAA made him do it?


He wasn't being paid enough?

[devildeac]

How did Bilas explain being tottally dominated by Pervis Ellison?


The NCAA made him do it?


He wasn't being paid enough?

Pervis wasn't in his jurisdiction/wheelhouse/responsibility. :rolleyes:

[proelitedota]

Boy. guess we shouldn't even bother playing the thing. Iona's got it in the bag.

:p I meant appearances.

Iona should be better than any of past 15 / 16th seed except for maybe Lehigh. Mercer was just a bad matchup for the 2013 team.

[rsvman]

:p I meant appearances.

Iona should be better than any of past 15 / 16th seed except for maybe Lehigh. Mercer was just a bad matchup for the 2013 team.

And I think Mercer was a 14 seed.

[freshmanjs]

:p I meant appearances.

Iona should be better than any of past 15 / 16th seed except for maybe Lehigh.

What does this even mean? Should be according to who? The metrics certainly don't support this statement (not even the best or 2nd best 15/16 this season).

[dukelifer]

No one is noticing Iona's recent run?

NCAA tournament champions:
1979, 1980*, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2016 (13th seed), 2017 (14th seed), 2018

Conference tournament champions:
1982, 1984, 1985, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018

Their starters have underperformed this season, but this 13/14 seed level team if they play to their potential.

We're not going to have an easy game.

You convinced me- putting all my money on Iona. Wait a minute...they also have lost in the first round of every NCAAT they have been in other than 1980 when Valvano was coach and Ruland was their star center. I am so confused. Are they going to win or has history shown they are a first round loser.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

How did Bilas explain being tottally dominated by Pervis Ellison?

.....not sure how Bilas did, but I'd explain it by saying Never Nervous Pervis was just better. And in defense of Bilas, and Alarie, the key basket was on a Pervis rebound of a Louisville air ball. Duke had position on the rebound, but not for an air ball.

And I'll say this, if no one else has.....Never Nervous Pervis is the second best nick name of any college athlete.......(Neon Deon being the best!)

[UrinalCake]

Latest video put out by DukeMBB shows Duval practicing. Great to see, even though I’d guess he’s not 100%

[devilseven]

....not sure how Bilas did, but I'd explain it by saying Never Nervous Pervis was just better. And in defense of Bilas, and Alarie, the key basket was on a Pervis rebound of a Louisville air ball. Duke had position on the rebound, but not for an air ball.

And I'll say this, if no one else has....Never Nervous Pervis is the second best nick name of any college athlete....(Neon Deon being the best!)
I was there that day in Dallas. Ellison had 25 points and 11 rebounds, many over Bilas. Ellison was a freshman, I beleive. Great performance. Bilas had 4 points and 3 rebounds. Complete domination.

[socaldukie]

Latest video put out by DukeMBB shows Duval practicing. Great to see, even though I’d guess he’s not 100%

Thanks for the update!

[proelitedota]

You convinced me- putting all my money on Iona. Wait a minute...they also have lost in the first round of every NCAAT they have been in other than 1980 when Valvano was coach and Ruland was their star center. I am so confused. Are they going to win or has history shown they are a first round loser.

Or it could be the year they finally break through? :rolleyes:

[gofurman]

Or it could be the year they finally break through? :rolleyes:

Just making sure. 1March madness live will carry all the games ? I ask because I look at that app and it doesn't list upcoming games like ESPN does. W ESPN I always feel ok bc I put in Duke and it lists the upcoming game that will be shown... I don't see that on my march madness live app? It says 'watch' on the bottom but doesn't list the games upcoming etc

2. Can't I go to an NCAA website to watch? Ncaa.com - it lists just archived videos, classics etc but doesn't exactly give a search bar w Duke Iona that makes me feel warm and fuzzy. Lol
Please help and thanks - appreciated

[Furniture]

Latest video put out by DukeMBB shows Duval practicing. Great to see, even though I’d guess he’s not 100%

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/973651341221523456/video/1

here you go...

[subzero02]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/973651341221523456/video/1

here you go...

I'm pretty sure I saw Carter for a second. I saw Duval and the fact that someone picked him up after he made a jumpshot was encouraging. His ankle must not be too delicate for that to have happened.

[Reilly]

2015 Iona: 26 wins; 1st in MAAC; 109th best team; lost @ AP #25 Ark by 17; lost in NIT by 13
2016 Iona: 22 wins; 2nd in MAAC; 113th best team; lost in ncaa by 13 to AP #22 ISU
2017 Iona: 22 wins: 3rd in MAAC; 138th best team; lost in ncaa by 16 to AP #9 Oregon
2018 Iona: 20 wins; 4th in MAAC; 147th best team; playing AP #9 Duke

90 wins in 4 years; played and hung with (13 - 17 points) ranked teams, including in ncaa; but trending down (1 - 2 - 3 - 4 MAAC reg season finishes; 109 - 113 - 138 - 147 SRS)

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/iona/2015-schedule.html

[Reilly]

History of 15/2 upsets:

https://www.newsday.com/sports/college/college-basketball/march-madness-15-2-upsets-in-the-ncaa-tournament-1.4873282

[Saratoga2]

UCLA did their best imitation of a flat Duke basketball offensive performance last night with turnovers galore and an inability to score over long periods to go down to the Bonnies last night. Hope we have that flat lackadaisical play out of our system. While we should beat Iona, I hope we do it convincingly with good fundamental execution.

[Reilly]

Of the eight other 15/2 NCAA upsets, the highest (final, SRS) ranked 2-seeds who went down are #4 Michigan State in 2016 (to #125 MTSU), #7 Mizzou in 2012 (to #207 Norfolk State), and #8 Arizona in 1993 (to #123 Santa Clara). Duke in 2012 ended up #12 in the SRS (and lost to #106 Lehigh). Duke in 2018 is now #2.

Of the eight other 15/2 NCAA upsets, the lowest (final, SRS) ranked 15-seeds who triumphed are #207 Norfolk State (over #7 Mizzou) in 2012, #184 Hampton (over #20 Iowa State) in 2001, and #156 Coppin State (over #27 South Carolina) in 1997.

The largest expected SRS point differential was 23 points (#7 Mizzou expected over #207 Norfolk State in 2012).

Right now, Duke's expected SRS point differential is 24 over Iona.

So, if Iona beats Duke, Duke will probably be the highest SRS-rated 2-seed to go down (Michigan State ended #4 in 2016), and it will probably be the largest expected SRS point differential overcome by a 15-seed (Mizzou's 23-point differential over #207 Norfolk State currently leads there).

Three 15-seeds (Norfolk State #207; Hampton #184; Coppin State #156) who are rated lower than Iona's current #147 have won.

The 2016 #4 Mich State/#125 MTSU game (20 point expected differential) and the 2012 #7 Mizzou/#207 Norfolk State (23 point expected differential) look the most like the #2 Duke/#147 Iona game (24 point expected differential).

On these metrics, it looks like the 2012 Mizzou/Norfolk State game is the biggest 15/2 upset, but Iona/Duke would surpass it (Duke highest SRS ranked team; largest point differential -- maybe, depending on how final numbers shake out).

[sagegrouse]

I was there that day in Dallas. Ellison had 25 points and 11 rebounds, many over Bilas. Ellison was a freshman, I believe. Great performance. Bilas had 4 points and 3 rebounds. Complete domination.

Louisville was just awful in the first half. We had a three-point lead, but it should have been double-digits. Then we didn't make shots down the stretch.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Louisville was just awful in the first half. We had a three-point lead, but it should have been double-digits. Then we didn't make shots down the stretch.

That is my memory exactly. Specifically, Alarie and David Henderson missed some open mid range jumpers down the stretch that they always hit. I remember thinking this team is still exhausted from the war with Kansas on Saturday.

It was kind of like 2015 in reverse. I think Kentucky took something out of Wisconsin that benefitted us. I think in 86 the war with Kansas helped a Louisville team that was in no way as good as Duke 86.

[jv001]

We better get ready for a loud booing when ever Grayson has the ball but really it's been that way all year. I'm hoping Grayson uses that for motivation to shut the crowd up. I'm sure the coaches have addressed the team about it as well. GoDuke!

[Neals384]

History of 15/2 upsets:

https://www.newsday.com/sports/college/college-basketball/march-madness-15-2-upsets-in-the-ncaa-tournament-1.4873282

Did you have to do that?

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Here's an article from one of the local papers near Iona. Nothing super exciting except this quote about Grayson:

"The tripping stuff, I'm not really a big fan of that," McGill said. "If he wants to start tripping then we can turn it into a tripping match. But I'm not really getting into that."

https://www.lohud.com/story/sports/high-school/lohud-varsity-insider/2018/03/13/ncaa-tournament-iona-duke/418143002/

[uh_no]

Here's an article from one of the local papers near Iona. Nothing super exciting except this quote about Grayson:

"The tripping stuff, I'm not really a big fan of that," McGill said. "If he wants to start tripping then we can turn it into a tripping match. But I'm not really getting into that."

https://www.lohud.com/story/sports/high-school/lohud-varsity-insider/2018/03/13/ncaa-tournament-iona-duke/418143002/

perfect. let them be worried about allen's past meanwhile bagley and carter are giving them the rope-a-dope.

[Billy Dat]

1920s Beat Reporter:
"Hey Duke, waddya do aside from making millions in tobacco, energy, and textiles?"

James B Duke:
"Iona College."

[ndkjr70]

I'm nervous about this game, for one reason: experience. We have a ton of guys who've never played in march before, going against a bunch of seniors who've done this two years in a row. A junior on Iona has never missed the NCAA tournament! That's a shockingly good resume for a 2-seed.

[CDu]

I'm nervous about this game, for one reason: experience. We have a ton of guys who've never played in march before, going against a bunch of seniors who've done this two years in a row. A junior on Iona has never missed the NCAA tournament! That's a shockingly good resume for a 2-seed.

While that is all true, it is also worth noting that this year's Iona team is missing its 3 best players from each of those two previous teams. And is a worse team than any Iona team over the last few years. Only Much has multiple years of tourney contributions coming into this season. McGill barely played as a frosh and has just 26 tourney minutes, Cassimir was out in 2016 and has just 27 tourney minutes, and Crawford just joined last year (30 tourney minutes). Ekogi and Lewis are grad transfers, and Griffin was a regular transfer. None of them have ever played in the NCAA tournament.

So while they are certainly a veteran team, and play for a team that has made the tournament 3 straight years, they actually aren't as tourney-experienced as you might think. They have a combined 147 minutes of tournament experience, and 62 of those are from Much.

So, they are largely as green as our guys are in terms of tournament experience.

[Reilly]

History of 15/2 upsets:

https://www.newsday.com/sports/college/college-basketball/march-madness-15-2-upsets-in-the-ncaa-tournament-1.4873282


Did you have to do that?

Yes, I did. Some around here are overconfident -- need to make them nervous. And some are too nervous -- need to make them confident. Mostly, I just need to keep stirring up hate and discontent wherever I go.

[proelitedota]

Iona is number 1 in experience. Duke is 2nd to last.
https://www.ncaa.com/webview/news/basketball-men/bracketiq/2018-03-13/march-madness-2018-predictions-our-pick-best-15-2-upset?param=mml_app

[ndkjr70]

Iona is number 1 in experience. Duke is 2nd to last.
https://www.ncaa.com/webview/news/basketball-men/bracketiq/2018-03-13/march-madness-2018-predictions-our-pick-best-15-2-upset?param=mml_app

Ironically enough, I would guess that Grayson Allen has almost the same amount of NCAA Tournament minutes played as Iona's team does combined, as pointed out by CDu.

[CDu]

Ironically enough, I would guess that Grayson Allen has almost the same amount of NCAA Tournament minutes played as Iona's team does combined, as pointed out by CDu.

He has more, actually. Allen has played 252 tourney minutes in his career. The Gaels have 147 combined.

[uh_no]

Ironically enough, I would guess that Grayson Allen has almost the same amount of NCAA Tournament minutes played as Iona's team does combined, as pointed out by CDu.

I would have wagered that grayson allen has more NCAA tournament championships than Iona's team does combined as well, but the one post upthread made me realize I was wrong :P :P

[Bob Green]

Duval status:




@dukebasketball
28s28 seconds ago

Despite suffering an ankle injury in the Blue Devils' ACC semifinal loss against North Carolina, Trevon Duval proclaimed himself "100%" on Wednesday afternoon:

Admittedly, Duval is most likely biased on Duval but it still good news to read.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Duval status:





Admittedly, Duval is most likely biased on Duval but it still good news to read.

I like the specificity.....not just ready to go.....not just okay to play......but 100%......hope it's accurate as well as specific...

[BigZ]

Prediction: Duke 83 Iona 58

[gep]

UCLA did their best imitation of a flat Duke basketball offensive performance last night with turnovers galore and an inability to score over long periods to go down to the Bonnies last night. Hope we have that flat lackadaisical play out of our system. While we should beat Iona, I hope we do it convincingly with good fundamental execution.

I thought about this coming home from work today. "If" Duke wins by a large, comfortable margin and the bench gets a lot of playing time, I think maybe the starters (freshmen) think that the NCAA is a "cake-walk"... and will play as such. I hope they get a good dose of "worry" in the first half... at least. Gotta maintain that focus.

[AZLA]

I have 100% confidence in this team. Time to fire up the engines and let ‘em run!

[proelitedota]

I thought about this coming home from work today. "If" Duke wins by a large, comfortable margin and the bench gets a lot of playing time, I think maybe the starters (freshmen) think that the NCAA is a "cake-walk"... and will play as such. I hope they get a good dose of "worry" in the first half... at least. Gotta maintain that focus.

Totally agree, our game against Troy last year had less drama than our 2015 games against Robert Morris.

[Spanarkel]

I'm apprehensive about this game for three reasons:

1) I'm apprehensive about all Duke games


2) Beware the ides of March


3) Ty Jerome graduated from Iona Prep


Let's go, Duke!

[Native]

This game does give me pause, as the Gaels are, on average, far older than Duke — with an average experience rating on Kenpom of 2.26 years to our 0.67 years, respectively. That can matter in March, as we all know.

With that being said: the Gaels are a good three-point shooting team, with a 3P% of 38.8% and an overall eFG% of 54.1%, and they rely on perimeter shooting for just over 36% of their total scoring output. They play just slightly faster than we do. They start junior guard Rickey McGill at the point — he's capable of filling it up, but has had single-digit point totals in two of their last five, hitting from three 38.5% of the time on the season. Shooting guard Schadrac Casimir is a strong three-point shooter at 46.3% and also boasts the highest ORtg on the team: 120.7. We'll need to be disciplined on defense and avoid letting these guys get hot.

The big story here will obviously in the paint, with Iona surrendering an average of four inches of height to the Blue Devils, according to Kenpom. They'll likely start 6-6 sophomore EJ Crawford at the 4 and 6-8 senior TK Edogi at the 5; Crawford is among their strongest offensive threats with an eFG% of 55% and a true shooting percentage of 58.4%. Of the two, Edogi appears to be the rebounding and defensive presence.

Carter and Bagley need to leverage their height advantage to control the glass and Grayson and Duval should make a concerted effort to get them the ball. If Carter can defend the smaller Crawford without fouling while he's in his zone, he should enjoy an advantage in that matchup. Crawford is shooting 35% from three on the season, which is a downtick from his 44.8% shooting mark a season ago.

The rebounding stats double down on the story: Duke is the #1-rated offensive rebounding team in the nation, which is a particular weakness of the Gaels, who are rated 303rd nationally in that category.

Iona's reliance on the long ball will mean that Duke has to stay disciplined on close-outs and do a good job of running people off the line. One weird consequence of our zone is that it tends to do a good job of this, though our wings can cheat up at times and leave the corners relatively unprotected. Iona is a middling shooting team once they're inside the arc, shooting 51.2% from the floor.

In short: pound the ball inside, punish Iona on the glass, and don't let them get hot from three.

[UrinalCake]

Duval status:

Awesome news; it looked really bad when he left the game last week. Coaching staff must have rubbed some extra tussin on it.

[jipops]

It will be interesting to see if our offense clicks at all today, even against a poor defense such as Iona. Not only that, how will our zone do against a team that likes to fire up 3's? I do expect the Gails to come out firing and for this to be much, much closer than all of us are comfortable with. I predict a single digit margin either way.

[OldPhiKap]

Awesome news; it looked really bad when he left the game last week. Coaching staff must have rubbed some extra tussin on it.

I would have more confidence if Duval's tweet had been in all caps. Because as we know, tweets in all caps are truerer.

[budwom]

I like the specificity....not just ready to go....not just okay to play...but 100%...hope it's accurate as well as specific...

I am always apprehensive as a sports fan when my team gives anything less than 110%.

[Saratoga2]

Iona's reliance on the long ball will mean that Duke has to stay disciplined on close-outs and do a good job of running people off the line. One weird consequence of our zone is that it tends to do a good job of this, though our wings can cheat up at times and leave the corners relatively unprotected. Iona is a middling shooting team once they're inside the arc, shooting 51.2% from the floor.


One thing I notice about Dukes defense at the 3 point line is a difference between how we guard the guy with the ball vs a UVA defender. Obviously, we are playing zone and they pack line, but there is a difference in individual defense. Take a guy like AOC for instance. He is tall and long for a guard and he is pretty quick. He guards the three point line a step away from his man with his hands extended to his side and occasionally waves his hands up. I noted he got shot over by a quick guard. In Virginia's case the guard tends to be closer to the man with the ball and they often extend one arm toward the potential shooters face. They have help so are not as worried about being blown by.

I wonder if AOC and other Duke defenders on the man with the ball at the three point line should play a little closer (a reached out hand should be able to tough the opponent on the forehead) and also have their hands up so it would be much harder to get a shot off. Others on Duke play in a similar manner but I tend to watch AOC since I believe he needs to tighten up his defense. Further out defenders can play off a little more as the shot gets more difficult.

[CDu]

It will be interesting to see if our offense clicks at all today, even against a poor defense such as Iona. Not only that, how will our zone do against a team that likes to fire up 3's? I do expect the Gails to come out firing and for this to be much, much closer than all of us are comfortable with. I predict a single digit margin either way.

Iona is very small. Given our length all over the court, I think they'll have to take very deep 3s if they want to get open looks.

[jv001]

One thing I notice about Dukes defense at the 3 point line is a difference between how we guard the guy with the ball vs a UVA defender. Obviously, we are playing zone and they pack line, but there is a difference in individual defense. Take a guy like AOC for instance. He is tall and long for a guard and he is pretty quick. He guards the three point line a step away from his man with his hands extended to his side and occasionally waves his hands up. I noted he got shot over by a quick guard. In Virginia's case the guard tends to be closer to the man with the ball and they often extend one arm toward the potential shooters face. They have help so are not as worried about being blown by.

I wonder if AOC and other Duke defenders on the man with the ball at the three point line should play a little closer (a reached out hand should be able to tough the opponent on the forehead) and also have their hands up so it would be much harder to get a shot off. Others on Duke play in a similar manner but I tend to watch AOC since I believe he needs to tighten up his defense. Further out defenders can play off a little more as the shot gets more difficult.

I think it was the last game against the cheats that I noticed the same thing. The Duke perimeter guys(all) did not have their arms up in the zone. I wondered if that was by design(coaches) or just the individual players method of guarding up top of the zone. GoDuke!

[jv001]

This game does give me pause, as the Gaels are, on average, far older than Duke — with an average experience rating on Kenpom of 2.26 years to our 0.67 years, respectively. That can matter in March, as we all know.

With that being said: the Gaels are a good three-point shooting team, with a 3P% of 38.8% and an overall eFG% of 54.1%, and they rely on perimeter shooting for just over 36% of their total scoring output. They play just slightly faster than we do. They start junior guard Rickey McGill at the point — he's capable of filling it up, but has had single-digit point totals in two of their last five, hitting from three 38.5% of the time on the season. Shooting guard Schadrac Casimir is a strong three-point shooter at 46.3% and also boasts the highest ORtg on the team: 120.7. We'll need to be disciplined on defense and avoid letting these guys get hot.

The big story here will obviously in the paint, with Iona surrendering an average of four inches of height to the Blue Devils, according to Kenpom. They'll likely start 6-6 sophomore EJ Crawford at the 4 and 6-8 senior TK Edogi at the 5; Crawford is among their strongest offensive threats with an eFG% of 55% and a true shooting percentage of 58.4%. Of the two, Edogi appears to be the rebounding and defensive presence.

Carter and Bagley need to leverage their height advantage to control the glass and Grayson and Duval should make a concerted effort to get them the ball. If Carter can defend the smaller Crawford without fouling while he's in his zone, he should enjoy an advantage in that matchup. Crawford is shooting 35% from three on the season, which is a downtick from his 44.8% shooting mark a season ago.

The rebounding stats double down on the story: Duke is the #1-rated offensive rebounding team in the nation, which is a particular weakness of the Gaels, who are rated 303rd nationally in that category.

Iona's reliance on the long ball will mean that Duke has to stay disciplined on close-outs and do a good job of running people off the line. One weird consequence of our zone is that it tends to do a good job of this, though our wings can cheat up at times and leave the corners relatively unprotected. Iona is a middling shooting team once they're inside the arc, shooting 51.2% from the floor.

In short: pound the ball inside, punish Iona on the glass, and don't let them get hot from three.

But pleaseeeeeeeee, don't force the ball down low and turn it over. I hope we have a different method of getting the ball to Marvin and Wendell than trying to throw if over a well guarded big man. I do think it's a great idea to get them the ball, just be sure of the passes. Marvin and Wendell probably could get 10+ point on put backs if our guards are not hitting the 3 ball. But I hope they(MBIII & Wendell) don't get many chances to O. Rebound. our 3 point shots because Grayson and Gary are on fire. GoDuke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Iona is very small. Given our length all over the court, I think they'll have to take very deep 3s if they want to get open looks.

This is what I've been thinking (or maybe hoping) about their 3s.......not likely they've seen anything like Duke's length.

[Troublemaker]

It will be interesting to see if our offense clicks at all today, even against a poor defense such as Iona. Not only that, how will our zone do against a team that likes to fire up 3's? I do expect the Gails to come out firing and for this to be much, much closer than all of us are comfortable with. I predict a single digit margin either way.

You should join the DBR NCAA tournament fake-money gambling competition: https://contests.covers.com/OfficePools/OverallLeaderboard/2957c4c7-8b50-49fc-87e5-a8a100c55ac5

Provided you are right about just this one prediction, you'll jump right into the top 5.

I think Duke kills Iona. We'd better. Otherwise, that means no adjustments have been made to help the offense.

[CDu]

You should join the DBR NCAA tournament fake-money gambling competition: https://contests.covers.com/OfficePools/OverallLeaderboard/2957c4c7-8b50-49fc-87e5-a8a100c55ac5

Provided you are right about just this one prediction, you'll jump right into the top 5.

I think Duke kills Iona. We'd better. Otherwise, that means no adjustments have been made to help the offense.

I tend to agree. I think our size/length and talent difference, combined with the zone (which should mitigate Iona's quickness and driving advantage), should be enough to win this one comfortably. If it is a single-digit win (or worse), there is reason for concern moving forward.

Adam Gold had a good take on Duke yesterday afternoon. He said something to the effect of "If Duke plays to their talent, they will win the tournament. Nobody can come close to what Duke's best is. But Duke hasn't yet figured out how to maximize what they have individually as a team. If they figure that out, they'll win. If they don't, they will probably lose."

I think we have more margin for error than just about anyone. We can play really poorly for large stretches of games and still compete with anyone in the country (see, UNC in ACCs, UVa at home, etc). The problem is that we are far to often using all of that margin for error. If we can figure out how to play together even just a bit more, it is hard to see us losing. But that is a HUGE if, as it really hasn't come together to this point.

[cbarry]

I predict Duke will start out playing lackluster, as they tend to do in the beginning of games, be even or behind at the 8 minute mark in the first half, then go Zombie Duke, and lead by 5 at the half, and win by 20+.

Iona should be a fairly easy game for Duke... it's the next game(s) I'm concerned about. Our path to the championship is a very tough one. This team has the talent to win it all, but also has enough lapses to lose in the second round.



I thought about this coming home from work today. "If" Duke wins by a large, comfortable margin and the bench gets a lot of playing time, I think maybe the starters (freshmen) think that the NCAA is a "cake-walk"... and will play as such. I hope they get a good dose of "worry" in the first half... at least. Gotta maintain that focus.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

But pleaseeeeeeeee, don't force the ball down low and turn it over. I hope we have a different method of getting the ball to Marvin and Wendell than trying to throw if over a well guarded big man. I do think it's a great idea to get them the ball, just be sure of the passes. Marvin and Wendell probably could get 10+ point on put backs if our guards are not hitting the 3 ball. But I hope they(MBIII & Wendell) don't get many chances to O. Rebound. our 3 point shots because Grayson and Gary are on fire. GoDuke!

Bounce passes leading the big man to his outside hand are much more effective than a lob over two defenders.

[CDu]

Bounce passes leading the big man to his outside hand are much more effective than a lob over two defenders.

Normally yes. Although against a tiny and quick team I'm not sure that bounce passes are the way to go.

[Highlander]

My biggest concern for this Duke team is that lately we seem to play tight under pressure. When the game is close we start trying to do too much rather than taking what our opponents give us. Then we start to panic and it snowballs. During the second UNC game, Coach K told the team to "take the pianos off of your backs and play." If these guys start having fun and have confidence in themselves, then they can win it all.

I'm not too concerned about Iona, but the Mercer game has taught me to never take anyone for granted.

[dukelifer]

You should join the DBR NCAA tournament fake-money gambling competition: https://contests.covers.com/OfficePools/OverallLeaderboard/2957c4c7-8b50-49fc-87e5-a8a100c55ac5

Provided you are right about just this one prediction, you'll jump right into the top 5.

I think Duke kills Iona. We'd better. Otherwise, that means no adjustments have been made to help the offense.

The biggest challenge for Duke will be limiting turnovers. If Duke is careful with the ball and plays with a little more patience in the half court- Duke should win easily. Turnovers have hurt this team as has late-game poor free throw shooting.

[dukelifer]

My biggest concern for this Duke team is that lately we seem to play tight under pressure. When the game is close we start trying to do too much rather than taking what our opponents give us. Then we start to panic and it snowballs. During the second UNC game, Coach K told the team to "take the pianos off of your backs and play." If these guys start having fun and have confidence in themselves, then they can win it all.

I'm not too concerned about Iona, but the Mercer game has taught me to never take anyone for granted.

Pressure is a funny thing- some players welcome it and some avoid it. For me this has always been the separator of good and great teams and players. This team has been all over the map. Down big they come back- but up big they lose focus. They can also play to the level of their opponents. It comes down to the guards and right now I have no idea what to expect from them.

[jv001]

You should join the DBR NCAA tournament fake-money gambling competition: https://contests.covers.com/OfficePools/OverallLeaderboard/2957c4c7-8b50-49fc-87e5-a8a100c55ac5

Provided you are right about just this one prediction, you'll jump right into the top 5.

I think Duke kills Iona. We'd better. Otherwise, that means no adjustments have been made to help the offense.

I agree with this. It doesn't make sense that we keep trying to put a round thing into a square hole. And if we are successful in passing the ball over well defended players, it might be fools gold because we're the taller team. GoDuke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Pressure is a funny thing- some players welcome it and some avoid it. For me this has always been the separator of good and great teams and players. This team has been all over the map. Down big they come back- but up big they lose focus. They can also play to the level of their opponents. It comes down to the guards and right now I have no idea what to expect from them.

That's true, but there are also different kinds of pressure. The pressure of expectations, to "defend" a great regular season in the NCAA, is almost always a negative pressure. There was never a more clutch under pressure player in NCAA history than Laettner, and Bobby Hurley and Grant Hill are also great under pressure - but even that team almost wilted under the immense pressure of defending the title of 91 and of meeting the expectations of going wire to wire as number one in the polls for 92. They all talk about what a taxing grind that was. They were so much better than any other team, that if they could've played free and loose, they win every game 20+.

[cato]

I would have more confidence if Duval's tweet had been in all caps. Because as we know, tweets in all caps are truerer.

I must spread sporks, etc

[proelitedota]

Do or die time today folks today.

I would like see a 40 min again, even if we're up 20 or God forbid down 20.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Did Oklahoma's family bus get lost or something? 6-7 rows are completely empty behind their bench except for one guy who looks to be a Rhode Island fan.

[ndkjr70]

Someone calm me down I'm about to puke. Please win Duke.

[TruBlu]

Someone calm me down I'm about to puke. Please win Duke.

Rodney Hood? Is that you?

[proelitedota]

Someone calm me down I'm about to puke. Please win Duke.

PLSS:
Post-Lehigh Stress Syndrome.

[-jk]

Did Oklahoma's family bus get lost or something? 6-7 rows are completely empty behind their bench except for one guy who looks to be a Rhode Island fan.

That appears to be the Duke section.

-jk

[WHOneedsSOX]

That appears to be the Duke section.

-jk

I thought the family always sat behind the bench and just rotated depending on who was playing.

[-jk]

I thought the family always sat behind the bench and just rotated depending on who was playing.

Not within a session.

-jk

[jv001]

Saw at halftime of OK vs. RI game that Barkley and Kenny idiot Smith both picked RI to beat OK and Duke. Makes me want to root for OK and not Danny Hurley's team. GoDuke!

[whereinthehellami]

Barkley's picks were embarrasing.

15 minutes to start of Duke game.

[SavDukeGrad]

I thought the family always sat behind the bench and just rotated depending on who was playing.

Within a session, the higher seeded teams have their family behind the bench. In this case, Duke and Rhode Island. The Oklahoma and Iona sections are across the court from their benches. You could see Grayson's parents behind the Oklahoma bench at the end of the game. It's also been this way at the ACC tournament in the past.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Within a session, the higher seeded teams have their family behind the bench. In this case, Duke and Rhode Island. The Oklahoma and Iona sections are across the court from their benches. You could see Grayson's parents behind the Oklahoma bench at the end of the game. It's also been this way at the ACC tournament in the past.

Aww got it. Thanks.

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Iona...

https://www.scacchoops.com/iona-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-3152018

All other games can be found here...

https://www.scacchoops.com/ncaa-basketball-scoreboard

[kako]

Stop it, Duval! You need to save some of those makes for later!!! :p

[BigZ]

Pound the ball inside please

[whereinthehellami]

Way too many open looks for Iona. Duke needs to focus.

[CDu]

The full-court pressure might not be the best option in this game. Seems to play into what Iona wants to do, which is run.

[BigZ]

I agree stop the press and turn this into a half court game

[Owen Meany]

Who's number 1 for Duke? 3-3 from 3 point range.

I have seen a shot chart before where Duval was much better shooting from an angle rather than head on 3's, but that was all relative.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Lot of people's Final 4 pick Gonzaga down by 2 with 1:39 left.

[whereinthehellami]

Iona hitting their shots, can they sustain it? Granted most are pretty good looks though.

[devilsince1977]

Lot of people's Final 4 pick Gonzaga down by 2 with 1:39 left.


crap, I have them in the Final 4.

[WHOneedsSOX]

crap, I have them in the Final 4.

Looks like they might escape. Up 3 with the ball with 17 seconds left.

[PackMan97]

Lot of people's Final 4 pick Gonzaga down by 2 with 1:39 left.

Zags up by 3. UNC-G and Carolina Grad Wes Miller are struggling with the key concepts of the game. Putting the ball in the hoop and not giving it to the other team.

[PackMan97]

Spartans with their third turnover in the last minute. :/

[CDu]

Spartans with their third turnover in the last minute. :/

Thank goodness. Really didn't want UNC's bracket to get even easier.

[whereinthehellami]

Thank goodness. Really didn't want UNC's bracket to get even easier.

My thoughts exactly!

[duke4ever19]

Thank goodness. Really didn't want UNC's bracket to get even easier.

Exactly my thoughts. I didn't want that upset. Obviously it's about matchups, and I like the Zags better than UNCG's personnel. That was a fun game, though.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Exactly my thoughts. I didn't want that upset. Obviously it's about matchups, and I like the Zags better than UNCG's personnel. That was a fun game, though.

And the Zags have nothing to complain about vis a vis the officiating.

[kako]

Good TO. You could see Duke starting to mail things in, particularly on D. Hope K is getting in faces in the huddle.

[whereinthehellami]

C'mon Bagley, contest that alley!

I'd like to see Duke up by at least 15 at halftime.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Coach K needs to make sure (I'm sure he will) that the team is playing well. Duke will win this game on talent alone. It's the next game where Duke will need to be executing offensively and defensively well.

[kako]

Hard to believe I'm writing this, but Duval is MOTM so far. He needs to keep staying within itself.

Nice 3 at the buzzer, Allen!!!

[scottdude8]

Man, I sure am glad that Coach K listened to all the complaining from a certain few on this board and gave up on Duvall. Oh, wait...

If he keeps this up it gives this team another gear. Yes it’s Iona but the young man needs a confidence boost and if certainly looks like he’s found a TON of it.

Great half!!!

[curtis325]

Gotta love a 53-point half. A little better defense would be nice though.


Key stat: only 4 turnovers. Please keep that going.

[gocanes0506]

hopefully duval finally comes out with a whole game of great play.

hopefully everyone on the team settles for unnecessary three when they get up 15+ to allow Iona back in it. Everyone started jacking early threes when they got up to 17. Iona got back into the game after that.

[CDu]

Duval with 13 points, 6 assists, and just 1 turnover.

Allen with 11 points, 5 assists, and just 1 turnover.

Bagley with 14 points, 3 rebounds.

Carter with 7 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals.

Offense is firing on all cylinders so far. Unfortunately, the defense hasn't been quite as good. Iona has scored 39 on 33 possessions. Hopefully they cool off in the second half.

[heartofgold]

We are seeing so far one of the primary weaknesses of the zone defense - the vulnerability to dribble penetration. Iona has good speed at all positions by playing small and they've successfully broken down the zone so far. Our defensive rating first half is not great. We will win this game most likely, but we should start thinking about the match up issues with RI breaking down our defense in a similar way.

[Ranidad]

I did a double take.
Interesting audio video mix right before or after K interview showing the Iona band but with audio of Duke band.

[whereinthehellami]

I like what I'm seeing so far. Up 14 at the half, had a good start to the game.

Stay focused in the 2nd half and play together, share the ball on offense.

[InSpades]

Scoring north of 1.5 points per possession... (of course we started out scoring 17 on our 1st 6 which is 2.8+)

Duval looks great. The 3s are a nice bonus but his penetration is something he can bring every game and he looks great doing it.

Need to tighten up the zone... giving up 1+ points per possession to Iona is probably not where we need to be.

Can't complain about a 14 point halftime lead! Let's finish this one strong!

[Truth&Justise]

Duke spent the season struggling to get better on D, switched to zone, and then incrementally got better and better, climbing into KenPom's top 10.

Then decided today "nah, forget that, let's just run and gun."

Iona shot 55% for the half!

[curtis325]

Duval with 13 points, 6 assists, and just 1 turnover.

Allen with 11 points, 5 assists, and just 1 turnover.

Bagley with 14 points, 3 rebounds.

Carter with 7 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals.

Offense is firing on all cylinders so far. Unfortunately, the defense hasn't been quite as good. Iona has scored 39 on 33 possessions. Hopefully they cool off in the second half.

Don't forget about 8 points from Trent--also a good half.

Bench is invisible.

[WHOneedsSOX]

We are seeing so far one of the primary weaknesses of the zone defense - the vulnerability to dribble penetration. Iona has good speed at all positions by playing small and they've successfully broken down the zone so far. Our defensive rating first half is not great. We will win this game most likely, but we should start thinking about the match up issues with RI breaking down our defense in a similar way.

Good thing Duke doesn't have to play Trae Young. Or does RI have guards that can penetrate and dish well too?

[CDu]

Don't forget about 8 points from Trent--also a good half.

Bench is invisible.

Bench is going to be invisible. We're going to ride our starters all tournament unless things fall apart.

[CDu]

Good thing Duke doesn't have to play Trae Young. Or does RI have guards that can penetrate and dish well too?

First, let's get the win today.

But in terms of Rhode Island, they have a lot of good guard play.

[curtis325]

Bench is going to be invisible. We're going to ride our starters all tournament unless things fall apart.

No doubt about it.

[whereinthehellami]

URI gave up a lot of buckets inside to a pretty weak OK team. They did hit some big 3s though.

[Truth&Justise]

C'mon, this is the IONA game thread. Plenty of time to think about other games if they happen. Right now this is the only one on the schedule.

[CDu]

Umm, we just opened the second half with 2 straight possessions in a 3-2 zone. A REAL 3-2 zone, not a 2-3 that looked funky. Interesting.

[InSpades]

You think someone told them that they start halves too slowly?

Wow. Started the game on fire. Started the 2nd half ready to go. Love it!

[MarkD83]

I hope they keep playing hard and take the heart out of Iona. We have not seen that too many times this years

[SavDukeGrad]

Great start to the 2nd half - really nice to see! Have we switched to a 3-2 zone?

[whereinthehellami]

You think someone told them that they start halves too slowly?

Wow. Started the game on fire. Started the 2nd half ready to go. Love it!

I like it, keep up the energy.

[CDu]

Great start to the 2nd half - really nice to see! Have we switched to a 3-2 zone?

Yep. First time I've seen that this season that I can remember. First two possessions of the second half were in a 3-2 zone.