NCAA Midwest collector thread (Kansas #1 seed, Duke #2)

[JasonEvans]

Post your thoughts about the Midwest region here. And don't forget to vote in the poll for who will win this bracket.

-Jason

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Michigan State or Duke will win the region IMO.

Looks like Duke's path/match up situation is better than Virginia's (who got screwed) and not as easy as the cheats (of course).

[Chard]

From ESPN (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22723015/complete-look-every-march-madness-team-2018-ncaa-tournament)


55. Iona Gaels
The Gaels love to push the pace -- 16 games with 73 or more possessions (the average is 68.5, per KenPom.com) -- and let the 3-pointers fly (38.8 percent from beyond the arc). And that's a great way to author a memorable performance in a thrilling opening-round game. Surrendering a 51.4 percent clip inside the arc, however, is a good way to go home after your first game.

Seems like a perfect matchup for Duke. Should be a beat down. Should be.


Michigan State or Duke will win the region IMO.

Looks like Duke's path/match up situation is better than Virginia's (who got screwed) and not as easy as the cheats (of course).

Providence is playing well. Should have beat Villa.

[robed deity]

Potential second round with Rhode Island, 5th in the nation in turnover percentage. If both get there, Duke can't be as loose with the ball as they have been.

[ipatent]

Potential second round with Rhode Island, 5th in the nation in turnover percentage. If both get there, Duke can't be as loose with the ball as they have been.

Duke has a history of tough games with Rhode Island.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Duke has a history of tough games with Rhode Island.

If I"m not mistaken, they almost beat Bill Foster's 78 team in an early round.....

[PackMan97]

Michigan State or Duke will win the region IMO.

Looks like Duke's path/match up situation is better than Virginia's (who got screwed) and not as easy as the cheats (of course).

I agree, State will win the region... Just not Michigan State.

%)

[Troublemaker]

Michigan State or Duke will win the region IMO.

Looks like Duke's path/match up situation is better than Virginia's (who got screwed) and not as easy as the cheats (of course).

Why? I get that UK/Zona in the S16 is potentially a tough matchup but are they tougher than MSU? And I'd rather play Cincy or Tennessee than Kansas in Omaha.

I think people are overstating how difficult UVA's region is.

[House G]

Why? I get that UK/Zona in the S16 is potentially a tough matchup but are they tougher than MSU? And I'd rather play Cincy or Tennessee than Kansas in Omaha.

I think people are overstating how difficult UVA's region is.

I completely agree. If UVA plays Cinn, what do you think the over/under would be?

[SavDukeGrad]

If I"m not mistaken, they almost beat Bill Foster's 78 team in an early round....

We did in fact play Rhode Island in the 1st round in Charlotte in 78. I was there, and it was definitely a competitive game. But I do not remember being "almost beaten".

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Why? I get that UK/Zona in the S16 is potentially a tough matchup but are they tougher than MSU? And I'd rather play Cincy or Tennessee than Kansas in Omaha.

I think people are overstating how difficult UVA's region is.

Well two things:
A: UVa earned an easier path (theoretically) as #1 overall than Duke earned as what, #7 overall? So it's not apples to apples.

B:
I agree, I don't love the potential MSU match up for Duke....but my gut feel is that UK and Arizona are going to be better than expected - UK has finally figured out how to play with their talent, and Arizona is mega talented and going to have the biggest chip on their shoulder of any team in the tournament IMO. I think the over all number one seed should not have been paired with those. I could see either of those teams winning it all.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

We did in fact play Rhode Island in the 1st round in Charlotte in 78. I was there, and it was definitely a competitive game. But I do not remember being "almost beaten".

It was 63-62

[freshmanjs]

Penn is one of the better 16 seeds I can recall. If it's ever going to happen...

[ChrisP]

We did in fact play Rhode Island in the 1st round in Charlotte in 78. I was there, and it was definitely a competitive game. But I do not remember being "almost beaten".

I was there, too! But I don't remember much other than the fact that we won because I was like 10 years old. I do distinctly remember being appalled that we had to play a team with UNC colors - yuck! Scarred for life!!! :cool:


I voted for Duke but did so mostly with my heart, rather than my head. I kind of hate that we might have to play MSU because, A) They're really good and B) We already played them this year. I hate when the committee does stuff like that. I honestly believe we can beat anyone IF we limit TO's to no more than 12 AND shoot at least 30% from three.

[arnie]

We did in fact play Rhode Island in the 1st round in Charlotte in 78. I was there, and it was definitely a competitive game. But I do not remember being "almost beaten".

Didn’t we win by 1 and Rhody took the last shot? This is from my feeble memory.

[gofurman]

I don't look past Iona. Not al all. But would you rather Oklahoma or rhody? And why?

[kcduke75]

If I"m not mistaken, they almost beat Bill Foster's 78 team in an early round...

in Charlotte. Terrible facility. We had the bye so it was a our first and their second game. It mattered.

Their future NBA star missed a layup at the buzzer for Duke to win by 1. Whew.

And we made it to the championship game after that scare, where Goose GIvens killed our 2-3 zone with free throw line jumpers.

[Troublemaker]

Well two things:
A: UVa earned an easier path (theoretically) as #1 overall than Duke earned as what, #7 overall? So it's not apples to apples.


And that's what they have.

You're the one who made the comparison originally and said that Duke's path was easier :-)

UVA fans may have some misgivings about their path, but not a single one of them would trade with Duke.

[TexHawk]

Saddened to see someone else voted for Kansas. I was looking forward to being the only one...

(KU matches up horribly with Duke, and even worse with Michigan State.)

[Duke31122]

Yea the Michigan State draw is not ideal, but I would take it over other draws. At some point you’re going to have to play a tough team. It could play in our favor having to play at that high of a level and making our team focus.

There is no team more talented than Duke. If we focus for 40 minutes and take care of the basketball, we will be fine. Duke has played tough competition and in front of hostile crowds. We just gotta stay focused and play one game at a time.

We have the senior and the Coach to win it all. Excited to see what this team can do, especially after the loss against UNC. Players seemed pissed about that one.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Duke will raise Banner #6 in April! LGD GTHc! We will beat carolina in the Final Four this year.

[FerryFor50]

The committee is pretty transparent in potential story lines in matchups.

2nd round matchup with Dan Hurley or freshman phenom vs. freshman phenom with Bagley v. Young?

[richardjackson199]

Agree with Ozzie - I was trying to post this in a different thread that got locked:


But we won the ACCT tournament and had the most top-25 wins in the country. This year they lost to Wofford and that is just ignored.

It sucks. Last year Duke had a case for a #1 seed, but being objective it was very debatable. I can't complain about the seed we got, and if we could have gotten past SC that bracket would have opened right up for us (as it did for SC).

This year I can't complain either. Duke had ample opportunity to earn a 1 seed and we failed to get it done. It's debatable, but I think the cheats earned a better 2 seed than us this year. We needed to win that game Friday night to close that argument.

But none of it matters now. We have a very tough draw, which is exactly what we earned with the games we lost. The brackets are set, and they are what they are. If we want a 1 seed, don't leave it up to the committee with a very debatable resume.

I don't give a s*** about the cheats right now. Duke needs to finally start taking care of our business, and this is the perfect time to do it. If the cheats get to the FF with their easy draw, then I hope we kick their cheating a**es right home and break their hearts. 1 year we're going to actually play each other in the big dance, and it's going to hurt like hell for somebody. This team absolutely can win. It's just time to play real Duke basketball and win 6 big games.

538 gives Duke the 3rd highest chance to win it all:

1. UVA
2. Nova
3. Duke
4. Kansas
5. Michigan State
6. Cincy
7. Purdue
No one from West region pops up until #8 - the entire West region has less than 18% chance combined. Lots of imbalance.

[SavDukeGrad]

in Charlotte. Terrible facility. We had the bye so it was a our first and their second game. It mattered.

Their future NBA star missed a layup at the buzzer for Duke to win by 1. Whew.

And we made it to the championship game after that scare, where Goose GIvens killed our 2-3 zone with free throw line jumpers.

Wow, a lot of us were at that game! It was in the original Charlotte Coliseum that opened in the 50s. I guess I should have googled the score - I didn't remember it being that much of a nail biter! But after going to St. Louis for the Final Four, that game became a distant memory.

[richardjackson199]

Duke will raise Banner #6 in April! LGD GTHc! We will beat carolina in the Final Four this year.

Absolutely! I like our draw. When we win this thing and win it all nobody is going to complain that the committee gave us an easy draw.

#6 - Let's get it!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Wow, a lot of us were at that game! It was in the original Charlotte Coliseum that opened in the 50s. I guess I should have googled the score - I didn't remember it being that much of a nail biter! But after going to St. Louis for the Final Four, that game became a distant memory.

That team was not happy with its own performance until they routed Villanova in the regional, with the now famous Dennard backwards dunk. They then beat Notre Dame solidly, and only a fantasy island game by Goose Givens - 44 points - kept Duke from winning. I think Givens had one baseline jumper that Gminski blocked, but it hit the backboard and went in. Either that happened, or I dreamed it. Givens has a normal game, Duke wins, period.

We all thought "a dynasty was fostered" back then....but that was Foster's best year.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The committee is pretty transparent in potential story lines in matchups.

2nd round matchup with Dan Hurley or freshman phenom vs. freshman phenom with Bagley v. Young?

And some people insist they don't do that......I'll never believe that they don't do it.

[3rd Dukie]

We did in fact play Rhode Island in the 1st round in Charlotte in 78. I was there, and it was definitely a competitive game. But I do not remember being "almost beaten".

I was not there but watched it on TV. My memory, less dependable every day, is that it came down to a couple of missed URI free throws at the end. Do I have this wrong? I think this is the tournament whose second weekend was in Providence against Rory Sparrow and Penn. Correct me if I have this wrong.
Thanks.

[FerryFor50]

And some people insist they don't do that...I'll never believe that they don't do it.

Other 7-10 matchups Duke could have had:

Nevada (no storyline)/Texas (played them and beat them/Mo Bamba if healthy)
Texas A&M (no storyline)/Providence (no storyline)
Arkansas (NCAA title opponent in 1994)/Butler (NCAA title opponent in 2010)

The most unexciting storyline would have been A&M/Providence. Others would have been average storylines at best.

The UNC/Providence storyline is decent, given they played last year.

[westwall]

Michigan State or Duke will win the region IMO.

Looks like Duke's path/match up situation is better than Virginia's (who got screwed) and not as easy as the cheats (of course).


All of the ESPN 'experts' are picking MSU to prevail and to go on to win the Natty. The Wash Post, however, has a very different, and interesting, analysis. Worth a read:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/03/11/the-three-best-bets-to-win-the-2018-ncaa-tournament/? utm_term=.ea066354d2af

[SavDukeGrad]

I was not there but watched it on TV. My memory, less dependable every day, is that it came down to a couple of missed URI free throws at the end. Do I have this wrong? I think this is the tournament whose second weekend was in Providence against Rory Sparrow and Penn. Correct me if I have this wrong.
Thanks.

You are correct. The East Regional was in Providence that year, and we played Penn in the round of 16 and Villanova in the regional final. But apparently I am the one with the faulty memory because, even though I was there, I did not remember the Rhode Island game being that close.

[ipatent]

There were a few other close games against Rhode Island since then.

[Troublemaker]

All of the ESPN 'experts' are picking MSU to prevail and to go on to win the Natty. The Wash Post, however, has a very different, and interesting, analysis. Worth a read:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/03/11/the-three-best-bets-to-win-the-2018-ncaa-tournament/?utm_term=.ea066354d2af

Sorry, westwall, love ya but unless you linked the wrong article, the author basically just looked at kenpom and picked the top 3 teams. He wrote a lot of words and even had a table and maybe a graph but the previous sentence I typed summarized the article well.

[TexHawk]

And some people insist they don't do that...I'll never believe that they don't do it.

There are many many more instances of the committee avoiding interesting "storylines" than setting them up. Bagley vs Young is a storyline now? The coach of one team's brother used to play for the other team is a storyline? Wouldn't it have been better to put Arkansas vs Butler in there for Duke? Those two teams played a couple good games against Duke in my lifetime, both for national championships, iirc.

The committee could have matched Duke up with Michigan (Fab 5 story).

For my team, the committee avoided two juicy matchups, Missouri and Wichita State, where it would have been very easy to do so. (Frankly, I'm still a little surprised they didn't.)

The committee easily could set up 4s/5s Ohio State, Kentucky, Wichita State, Gonzaga, West Virginia to play each other. Each of those teams have very recent tournament history against at least one of the others, but none are lined up.

[FerryFor50]

There are many many more instances of the committee avoiding interesting "storylines" than setting them up. Bagley vs Young is a storyline now? The coach of one team's brother used to play for the other team is a storyline? Wouldn't it have been better to put Arkansas vs Butler in there for Duke? Those two teams played a couple good games against Duke in my lifetime, both for national championships, iirc.

The committee could have matched Duke up with Michigan (Fab 5 story).

For my team, the committee avoided two juicy matchups, Missouri and Wichita State, where it would have been very easy to do so. (Frankly, I'm still a little surprised they didn't.)

The committee easily could set up 4s/5s Ohio State, Kentucky, Wichita State, Gonzaga, West Virginia to play each other. Each of those teams have very recent tournament history against at least one of the others, but none are lined up.

Bagley/Young (two of the top freshmen in the nation) is definitely a more compelling story line than a re-match of NCAA games from 5/10/20 years ago. At least as far as ratings are concerned.

Mizzou/Wichita State has no real history, do they?

[TexHawk]

Bagley/Young (two of the top freshmen in the nation) is definitely a more compelling story line than a re-match of NCAA games from 5/10/20 years ago. At least as far as ratings are concerned.
Fair, but there were many on here fearing the committee would match you all up with UK only because of a little turnaround jumper 26 years ago. ;)



Mizzou/Wichita State has no real history, do they?
They both have history with Kansas, and this morning I was already mentally prepared to see one in the 2nd round, and the other in the 3rd, for the "storyline".

[FerryFor50]

Fair, but there were many on here fearing the committee would match you all up with UK only because of a little turnaround jumper 26 years ago. ;)


They both have history with Kansas, and this morning I was already mentally prepared to see one in the 2nd round, and the other in the 3rd, for the "storyline".

The turnaroud jumper is one of those timeless things. Fab Five? Meh. :)

As for Wichita St/Mizzou, I wasn't thinking in terms of KU, but I could see that now. Surprised that hasn't happened yet.

[westwall]

Sorry, westwall, love ya but unless you linked the wrong article, the author basically just looked at kenpom and picked the top 3 teams. He wrote a lot of words and even had a table and maybe a graph but the previous sentence I typed summarized the article well.

Troublemaker, you are the best, seriously, but I did not say that The Post had a unique approach, or that it was the correct one; only that it is interesting and stands in contrast to the unanimity of opinion expressed by the 'experts' on ESPN. And yes, it was linked to the correct article.

[Wander]

And some people insist they don't do that...I'll never believe that they don't do it.

You spent the other thread sure that Kentucky and Duke would be put in the same region for a storyline. Now that they're not, it's some nonsense with Trae Young (who I don't think will advance to meet us).

There's no evidence at all that these things are manufactured. Humans are very good at seeing patterns where none exist.

[Jim3k]

There's no one here who Duke cannot beat, assuming Duval is healthy.

[kako]

This marks the 2nd time in a row for Clemson to get a bad deal from the committee.

2011 - they play in Dayton in the play-in on Tuesday, beat UAB. Then they had to fly to Tampa, where they had to play the early game on Thursday in the round of 64. They fight but lose to WVU.

This time they play on Friday in what is likely going to be the last game of the 1st round - probably starts after 10PM ET in Clemson players' body clocks. They fly to San Diego and play New Mexico State. Clemson is the higher seed, but they must travel 3 time zones (NMSU goes just 1), which also is obviously a lot longer distance than what NMSU needs to do. They are playing a western team on the west coast. And they are a 5-seed playing NMSU's 12-seed - upset alert! And if somehow they win that game and beat the winner of Auburn/Charleston, they can't fly home. They need to fly to Omaha... where they would likely play Kansas. Whoever has represented the ACC in the committee before and whoever is representing the ACC now doesn't like Clemson.

I'm glad we are not the Tigers.

[gotoguy]

It was 63-62


Led by Sly Williams who scored 27 the Rams nearly pulled off the first round upset. The Devils escaped with a one point victory as the Rams missed two or three shots just before the buzzer or that's how I remembered the crazy finish.

[UrinalCake]

There were a few other close games against Rhode Island since then.

Didn't they almost knock us off in Cameron a few years ago? Jimmy Baron went off. One of the closest calls in our current non-conference home winning streak.

[Saratoga2]

There are a number of teams in the mid-west that can give us trouble. I would say RI, Mich St, Clemson and Kansas could all be difficult hurdles for us. We have the talent to win against any of these opponents, but we must do the following:

1. Come out and play hard from the beginning and continue playing with energy throughout.

2. Need to make good decisions with the ball and game plan cannot have us forcing the ball into the teeth of the defense. Good movement, be patient and get the shot we want. Recognize we have not made good decisions at the end of games and it has cost us.

3. Avoid unforced turnovers.

4. Shoot well from 3 and from the line.

5. Rotate our wing defenders in the zone so that we aren't expecting our center to play one against 2.

6. Pressure the ball with one man close enough to threaten the 3 point shooter and keep a hand up and ready to block or deflect the shot or pass.

7. Slow the opponents flow into their offense by pressuring the ball as it is being advanced.

I would love to see the team put together a 40 minute effort of smart effective ball.

[UrinalCake]

Also as far as storylines, if the NCAA were really trying to create those then they would have put Arizona in our region. Ayton/Bagley would have blown up the nielsen boxes. When you have a team like Duke and a guy who's coached for 40 years, you can create a storyline about just about any opponent. I'll be happy if we face Young and a team that has nose dived to finish its season and for whom the Selection Committee Chairman had to explicitly defend letting in to the tournament.

[gotoguy]

That team was not happy with its own performance until they routed Villanova in the regional, with the now famous Dennard backwards dunk. They then beat Notre Dame solidly, and only a fantasy island game by Goose Givens - 44 points - kept Duke from winning. I think Givens had one baseline jumper that Gminski blocked, but it hit the backboard and went in. Either that happened, or I dreamed it. Givens has a normal game, Duke wins, period.

We all thought "a dynasty was fostered" back then...but that was Foster's best year.

I was listening on ESNU satellite radio to a game yesterday, I believe it was Kentucky Tennessee and someone banked in a three pointer from the corner that hit the edge of the backboard. The announcer said the only time he'd ever seen that before was when Jack Givens did q the same thing in the 1978 national championship game.

[ipatent]

Didn't they almost knock us off in Cameron a few years ago? Jimmy Baron went off. One of the closest calls in our current non-conference home winning streak.

Yes, and I think there was one other close game. Surprised no one has mentioned their color scheme and mascot are eerily similar to a supposed institution of higher learning eight miles down the road.

[Duke07]

Kind of random and purely anecdotal but I look at Duke’s 1st round performance to see if they’re heading toward a potential national championship. I know in 2001, 2010, and 2015 at least we destroyed our first round opponent. Other years when we’ve been involved in a 1st round tussle (even if we pull away eventually), our ceiling has been around the 2nd-3rd round.

[Furniture]

Sorry but this is such a silly poll..I just can’t understand why any Duke fan that would vote for another team.

[Utley]

I was not there but watched it on TV. My memory, less dependable every day, is that it came down to a couple of missed URI free throws at the end. Do I have this wrong? I think this is the tournament whose second weekend was in Providence against Rory Sparrow and Penn. Correct me if I have this wrong.
Thanks.

Such a blast from the past to see the Rory Sparrow reference- thanks for bringing that one back to me. Pretty sure he went to Nova though

[uh_no]

Sorry but this is such a stupid poll...Sorry if that sounds harsh..I just can’t understand any Duke fan that would vote for another team. Maybe I can’t explain my reasons for me calling it stupid but to me its an oxymoron on a Duke forum...

cheering for a team and predicting outcomes are two very different things. Yes, many people conflate the too, and the latter will be clouded by the former......but some of us tabbed UNC to win the whole thing last year, and some of us won the bracket pool.

Not thinking duke is going to win does not mean you're not cheering for duke to win. thinking UNC is going to win doesn't mean for one second you necessarily are rooting for them to win. The only way those statements are invalid is if your rooting interests somehow have an outcome on the game...which of course, they don't.

[Furniture]

Opening odds to win

Villanova 7 to 1
unc 13 to 1
Xavier 14 to 1
Virginia 10 to 1
Jayhawks 18 to 1
Duke 8 to 1

[bedeviled]

Twitter video clip (https://twitter.com/SunDevilHoops/status/972965129154265088): Arizona State learns that they made the NCAAT, and Bobby Hurley promptly enters a bracket pool
Bonus Twitter vid (https://twitter.com/BillKoch25/status/972959652769075202): Dan Hurley reacts to seeing Bobby Hurley getting invited to the dance

[3rd Dukie]

Such a blast from the past to see the Rory Sparrow reference- thanks for bringing that one back to me. Pretty sure he went to Nova though
You could be absolutely right. I was there for the weekend with a client, and the booze was flowing fairly freely. Who was the Penn Stud? I would have sworn it was Sparrow, but there was another dude whose name I can't recall.
Thanks

[mr. synellinden]

Duke has a history of tough games with Rhode Island.

I didn’t see any mention of this 1 point NCAA tournament game in 1988:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/1988-03-24-duke.html

[subzero02]

Also as far as storylines, if the NCAA were really trying to create those then they would have put Arizona in our region. Ayton/Bagley would have blown up the nielsen boxes. When you have a team like Duke and a guy who's coached for 40 years, you can create a storyline about just about any opponent. I'll be happy if we face Young and a team that has nose dived to finish its season and for whom the Selection Committee Chairman had to explicitly defend letting in to the tournament.

I'd rather face Oklahoma right now too. That might change depending on how they perform against Rhode Island. Rhode Island definitely has some vulnerabilities; they seemed like they could be exploited down low by our bigs. They have an out of shape center who has some nice moves but I didn't see much else yesterday against Davidson.

[bigperm13]

Regional semis in 88 to Rhody. Won 73-72. Bonzie Colson was on that team for the Rams. I'm looking for a better first round performance than last year. Team looked tired against Troy and ran out of gas in the road game against SC. I'm thinking and hoping Duke will have a much better first weekend this time around.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Opening odds to win

Villanova 7 to 1
unc 13 to 1
Xavier 14 to 1
Virginia 10 to 1
Jayhawks 18 to 1
Duke 8 to 1

No one better than 7-1? That's pretty wide open......

[robed deity]

Regional semis in 88 to Rhody. Won 73-72. Bonzie Colson was on that team for the Rams. I'm looking for a better first round performance than last year. Team looked tired against Troy and ran out of gas in the road game against SC. I'm thinking and hoping Duke will have a much better first weekend this time around.

BC's Jim Christian was on that team too.

[Native]

I'm not sure who wins this region, but I think whoever does wins the whole enchilada.

[whereinthehellami]

What was the deal with MSU at the end of the season? They were winning but squeaking games out. Do they have some injuries?

[FerryFor50]

What was the deal with MSU at the end of the season? They were winning but squeaking games out. Do they have some injuries?

Maybe they're not as good as everyone is making them out to be? :cool:

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Regional semis in 88 to Rhody. Won 73-72. Bonzie Colson was on that team for the Rams. I'm looking for a better first round performance than last year. Team looked tired against Troy and ran out of gas in the road game against SC. I'm thinking and hoping Duke will have a much better first weekend this time around.

Bonzie Colson? I mean, he looks old, but...LOL By chance was that his dad, or unrelated.

Another note: Coach K's second FF team, and totally unexpected. Strickland and Smith were good players out of nowhere. The first of K's 5 FF's in a row. If I'm not mistaken, they got down 14-0 to Kansas to start the semi finals, and would've taken their first lead late on a Kevin Strickland 3, which went halfway down and then somehow spun out, and Duke never recovered. UK won it all two days later.

[kAzE]

Surprised there aren't more Kansas picks. They are playing better than any team in this region right now, a number of their guys have improved drastically over the past couple of weeks (especially Newman and De Sousa, who gives them another viable big man), AND they get to play the regional final in Omaha, which means basically 2 home games if they advance to that point.

IMO Kansas should be favored to win the region. They are hot at the right time of the year.

But I still picked Duke :cool:

[Bluedevil114]

Coach K says each game is a championship game. If the teams prepares and plays like each game is a championship game then they will win it all. If they don’t believe that and start looking forward they will watch the rest of the tournament from Durham. They have the talent but do they have the will? This is why we watch the games.

[FerryFor50]

Surprised there aren't more Kansas picks. They are playing better than any team in this region right now, a number of their guys have improved drastically over the past couple of weeks (especially Newman and De Sousa, who gives them another viable big man), AND they get to play the regional final in Omaha, which means basically 2 home games if they advance to that point.

IMO Kansas should be favored to win the region. They are hot at the right time of the year.

But I still picked Duke :cool:

How healthy is Azubuike?

He missed the entire Big 12 tournament but is expected back for the opening round of the NCAAs.

I think his health determines how good they can be.

[TexHawk]

Surprised there aren't more Kansas picks. They are playing better than any team in this region right now, a number of their guys have improved drastically over the past couple of weeks (especially Newman and De Sousa, who gives them another viable big man), AND they get to play the regional final in Omaha, which means basically 2 home games if they advance to that point.

IMO Kansas should be favored to win the region. They are hot at the right time of the year.

But I still picked Duke :cool:

KU played Oregon in the E8 a year ago, 25 minutes from campus in KC, and vomited all over themselves. Oregon had like 4 fans in the arena.

Omaha shouldn't scare anybody.

[TexHawk]

Also as far as storylines, if the NCAA were really trying to create those then they would have put Arizona in our region. Ayton/Bagley would have blown up the nielsen boxes. When you have a team like Duke and a guy who's coached for 40 years, you can create a storyline about just about any opponent. I'll be happy if we face Young and a team that has nose dived to finish its season and for whom the Selection Committee Chairman had to explicitly defend letting in to the tournament.
Perusing the bracket this morning, if the committee was motivated by talent matchups, they just as easily could have matched Duke up with Missouri, Texas, or Texas A&M in the 2nd round. Those teams have lottery picks, and that (theoretical) game would actually feature the talented players guarding each other.

They also could have dropped Alabama a seed line for the matchup, Colin Sexton has taken all of Trae Young's national mojo anyway.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Perusing the bracket this morning, if the committee was motivated by talent matchups, they just as easily could have matched Duke up with Missouri, Texas, or Texas A&M in the 2nd round. Those teams have lottery picks, and that (theoretical) game would actually feature the talented players guarding each other..

That's not normally the motivation behind the NCAA storylines......more about coaches, schools history with each other, traditions.

[freshmanjs]

Perusing the bracket this morning, if the committee was motivated by talent matchups, they just as easily could have matched Duke up with Missouri, Texas, or Texas A&M in the 2nd round. Those teams have lottery picks, and that (theoretical) game would actually feature the talented players guarding each other.

They also could have dropped Alabama a seed line for the matchup, Colin Sexton has taken all of Trae Young's national mojo anyway.

I agree with you. This is normal human pattern searching. Take any legal bracket and there will be a couple of storylines that (appear like they) must have been orchestrated by that clever committee for ratings.

[Chard]

All of the ESPN 'experts' are picking MSU to prevail and to go on to win the Natty. The Wash Post, however, has a very different, and interesting, analysis. Worth a read:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/03/11/the-three-best-bets-to-win-the-2018-ncaa-tournament/? utm_term=.ea066354d2af

That was worth a read. Thank you.

[ChillinDuke]

What was the deal with MSU at the end of the season? They were winning but squeaking games out. Do they have some injuries?

No idea, honestly. The lack of respect for MSU is odd to me.

I get the #s and the rankings don't love them or the B1G. But KenPom has them at #6. They have 4 total losses this year, only 1 at home. They lost to #3 Duke (neutral), #10 Michigan (2x; home, neutral), and #15 Ohio State (away). They took a 12-game win streak into their conference tourney, and they won their first game to push it to 13 in a row. Duke, Michigan, and OSU are 2, 3, and 5-seeds, respectively.

And that's a 3-seed? I thought they should be looked at for a #1. But they never were in serious consideration.

- Chillin

[English]

Opening odds to win

Villanova 7 to 1
unc 13 to 1
Xavier 14 to 1
Virginia 10 to 1
Jayhawks 18 to 1
Duke 8 to 1

Like, in your estimation? Based on betting odds at Westgate in Vegas? KenPom? BPI? Sagarin?

[gocanes0506]

Hopefully, Grayson and GTJR get going early and often. I want Duval to sit both of the first games. Maybe get some garbage time in the 2nd game to make sure his game hasnt gotten cobwebs.

The team has shown it performs in crunch time. Hopefully they treat these 3 weeks as crunch time. Get the collective game to another level. We've seen Calipari do it with Kentucky with their freshmen saturated teams that havent played great in the regular season. See if K can do the same.

Take care of the ball!
Play at their level of a game, not to the competition. That has happened a lot this year.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

That was worth a read. Thank you.

Thank you for recommending, and thanks to westfall for posting.

I thought it was fascinating, and I believe that the metrics will play out over time, including over the time of a six game slog. But I also thought this was a very important statement, vis a vis a single game: "Picking any squad above this threshold is a solid selection (at least before you consider the specific matchups they’ll face in the bracket and teams well-suited for upsets.."

[English]

It was mildly amusing last night watching the ESPN guys go through their picks, all settling on MSU winning the whole shebang...and then someone (Bilas?) slyly asks what happened the last time everyone annointed MSU for the Natty. Oh yeah, that's right, they lost to Middle Tenn St in the 2-15 first round game. Good story, you guys.

[luvdahops]

No idea, honestly. The lack of respect for MSU is odd to me.

I get the #s and the rankings don't love them or the B1G. But KenPom has them at #6. They have 4 total losses this year, only 1 at home. They lost to #3 Duke (neutral), #10 Michigan (2x; home, neutral), and #15 Ohio State (away). They took a 12-game win streak into their conference tourney, and they won their first game to push it to 13 in a row. Duke, Michigan, and OSU are 2, 3, and 5-seeds, respectively.

And that's a 3-seed? I thought they should be looked at for a #1. But they never were in serious consideration.

- Chillin

Interestingly, none of the 4 Chicago Tribune beat writers picked MSU out of the Midwest Region (3 had Duke, 1 had Kansas). But all 4 of the roundtable guys on Sportscenter this morning (J-Will, Greenberg, Bilas and the host, whose name I can't recall) had the Spartans, and I think 2 of them had MSU winning it all.

I saw them play a fair bit this year, and would say that generally, the whole never matched, much less exceeded the sum of the parts. They did come into the Big 10 Tourney on something of a roll (12 game winning streak), but that is deceptive in that it included only one win over a ranked (by 3 over Purdue at home), and some close scrapes against mediocre to bad squads (by 3 at Indiana and Iowa, by 5 at Wisconsin and Northwestern, the latter a game where they were down 20+ in the first half). They nipped Wisco again (63-60) in their first Big 10 tourney game, and then got taken apart by Michigan for the second time in the semis.

Bottom line, I side with the Trib folks more than ESPN.

[TexHawk]

No idea, honestly. The lack of respect for MSU is odd to me.

I get the #s and the rankings don't love them or the B1G. But KenPom has them at #6. They have 4 total losses this year, only 1 at home. They lost to #3 Duke (neutral), #10 Michigan (2x; home, neutral), and #15 Ohio State (away). They took a 12-game win streak into their conference tourney, and they won their first game to push it to 13 in a row. Duke, Michigan, and OSU are 2, 3, and 5-seeds, respectively.

And that's a 3-seed? I thought they should be looked at for a #1. But they never were in serious consideration.

- Chillin

KP ranks MSU's adjusted schedule as 64th in the country. All of the other P5 contenders are closer to the top 20. The other Big10 teams are similarly low, Michigan is 41, Purdue is 44, Ohio State is 51. 64th is closer to Cincinnati, Wichita State, Gonzaga. It appears the advanced metrics show the Big10 was a mid-major this year, and so it might be easier to think of their 4 losses like you do Cincinnati's losses (who got a 2 but won their conference tourney).

[uh_no]

KP ranks MSU's adjusted schedule as 64th in the country. All of the other P5 contenders are closer to the top 20. The other Big10 teams are similarly low, Michigan is 41, Purdue is 44, Ohio State is 51. 64th is closer to Cincinnati, Wichita State, Gonzaga. It appears the advanced metrics show the Big10 was a mid-major this year, and so it might be easier to think of their 4 losses like you do Cincinnati's losses (who got a 2 but won their conference tourney).

We beat michigan state by 7 without bagley and before we figured out how to play defense. IMO we were far higher from our ceiling back then than was MSU.

TCU isn't a bad team either. they've played relatively tight games with top 10/15 teams....though they haven't scratched a win yet. MSU should beat them, but it won't be a cakewalk.

[COYS]

We beat michigan state by 7 without bagley and before we figured out how to play defense. IMO we were far higher from our ceiling back then than was MSU.

TCU isn't a bad team either. they've played relatively tight games with top 10/15 teams...though they haven't scratched a win yet. MSU should beat them, but it won't be a cakewalk.

If I recall correctly, we also gave up a ton of fast break points to the Spartans in the first match-up, especially in the opening minutes of the game. We have been MUCH better at limiting our opponents' fast break opportunities since we've made the full time switch to the zone. I'm not guaranteeing a victory against Sparty or anything. I'm not even willing to look ahead that far, as we've got to make the Sweet 16 first, of course. If we face them in the Sweet 16, it would be a big test. But I like our chances.

[UrinalCake]

So I looked it up and MSU is only 3-4 against Q1 teams. Their average RPI win is 152, average RPI loss is 13, their overall SOS is 101 and their non conference SOS is 246. All factors that likely went in to their 3 seed despite the eye test telling us that they are a really good team. Basically they beat all the teams they are supposed to beat and have no bad losses, but the Committee arbitrarily deciddd this year to ignore losses and only look at wins.

I remember when we played them in November everyone said these teams could likely meet again in the Final Four. Sucks that we have to play them two rounds earlier, but honestly I think we match up well against them.

[TexHawk]

So I looked it up and MSU is only 3-4 against Q1 teams. Their average RPI win is 152, average RPI loss is 13, their overall SOS is 101 and their non conference SOS is 246. All factors that likely went in to their 3 seed despite the eye test telling us that they are a really good team. Basically they beat all the teams they are supposed to beat and have no bad losses, but the Committee arbitrarily deciddd this year to ignore losses and only look at wins.


No offense, but which Sparty games were you using your eyes on? They went to OT against Rutgers (15-19), AT HOME. They squeaked by bad teams like Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin (twice), Maryland, Penn State, and Northwestern. They basically played 4 games against good teams in conference, and lost 3 of them.

MSU is a good example of how the committee has evolved with metrics. People have been clamoring for them to do that for years. 10 years ago, a 29-4 Big10 champ would be a shoe-in.

[ChillinDuke]

KP ranks MSU's adjusted schedule as 64th in the country. All of the other P5 contenders are closer to the top 20. The other Big10 teams are similarly low, Michigan is 41, Purdue is 44, Ohio State is 51. 64th is closer to Cincinnati, Wichita State, Gonzaga. It appears the advanced metrics show the Big10 was a mid-major this year, and so it might be easier to think of their 4 losses like you do Cincinnati's losses (who got a 2 but won their conference tourney).

I get it. I just don't agree with it.

The fact is Michigan State hasn't lost this season to a team that isn't a 5-seed or better in the NCAAT. To me, that's the story. Anything else about SOS, RPI, B1G strength, etc is secondary to that fact. Obviously, the Committee (and others around here) don't agree with me, which is totally fine.

Meanwhile, the talking heads are all trumpeting Michigan as a new trendy FF pick. Like MSU, Michigan got a 3-seed despite 3 losses to non-Tourney teams. Out of conference, the only respectable teams they beat were UCLA and Texas, two teams that barely made it in.

Look, MSU getting a 3-seed isn't absurd. It's well within a reasonable range of where they should be seeded. I just think they are under-respected this year due to scheduling deficiencies that are being over-analyzed. They beat Purdue, UNC, Notre Dame with Bonzie, They went 16-2 in a power conference and unfortunately lost in their tourney to a good Michigan team. If Duke's name were swapped with theirs, a lot of people would be up in arms that Duke should have been a 1-seed, let alone a 3.

- Chillin

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

Duke will raise Banner #6 in April! LGD GTHc! We will beat carolina in the Final Four this year.

If we make it that far we should be an "experienced" team by then. But still a team that has never even been to the NCAAT.
Love, Ina

[BandAlum83]

Sorry but this is such a silly poll..I just can’t understand why any Duke fan that would vote for another team.

I have no desire to vote in this poll. I'm either jinxing or being disloyal by voting.

I'll pass.

[Highlander]

We beat michigan state by 7 without bagley and before we figured out how to play defense. IMO we were far higher from our ceiling back then than was MSU.

TCU isn't a bad team either. they've played relatively tight games with top 10/15 teams...though they haven't scratched a win yet. MSU should beat them, but it won't be a cakewalk.

I would note that we (surprisingly) played zone against MSU for the entire game, so I quibble a bit at us not knowing how to play defense in that game. Our problems on defense this year were in the m2m, and we never showed it vs. MSU. I believe we kept MSU to under 1 PPP which is generally the standard for good defense.

Our zone has definitely evolved, but it was also highly effective in that game. Not having Bagley made Allen the focal point of the offense and removed Bagley's defensive liabilities. Lucky for us, Allen delivered in spades.

[uh_no]

I would note that we (surprisingly) played zone against MSU for the entire game, so I quibble a bit at us not knowing how to play defense in that game. Our problems on defense this year were in the m2m, and we never showed it vs. MSU. I believe we kept MSU to under 1 PPP which is generally the standard for good defense.
No, they put up a 108, which, given does adjust to a ~96, but still nowhere near the quality we're playing right now.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I really, really, really want Duke-Oklahoma in the second round. OU is such a flawed team, and I really want to see Young v Duke.

Both RI and Oklahoma are not good teams from an efficiency perspective. I think our road to the S16 is very, very nice.

Round to the F4 is obviously challenging, but Kansas/MSU don't have easy paths. TCU is the #22 best team with a great offense. Seton Hall is the #26 best team. And NC State can beat anyone, anywhere.

[DukeWarhead]

Just saw the eminently useless Lunardi talking about MSU beating Duke in the Sweet 16 like it’s already happened. “Hard to believe from a team...” blah, blah. Of course, it could happen. But nothing will explain why on earth he has a job to begin with.

[Owen Meany]

I am not taking a Duke Michigan State match-up for granted. Duke has to win its first game, which is not a given (as Duke fans are painfully aware). Duke would then need to beat either a Hurley coached RI team that has spent a good deal of the year in the top 25, or Trae Young and Oklahoma, who were in the top 10 earlier and will present unique challenges to Duke's defense. Michigan State also has to get there. But I absolutely will be concerned about a Michigan State rematch.


I think Michigan State as a 3 seed is the committee's worse decision. Michigan State has 4 losses, only 1 at home - 1 to a 2 seed (Duke), 2 to a 3 seed (Michigan), and 1 to a 5 seed (Ohio State). They find themselves seeded below a team (UNC) they beat by 18 points, who has 6 more losses, and who lost at home to Wofford. They also beat Notre Dame by 18 when they were at full strength. They were on a 13 game winning streak prior to losing to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. They also have 2 potential lottery picks in Jackson Jr. and Bridges. The Big 10 was down, but I have seen mid majors get more credit for their SOS then Michigan State received.


I think some Duke fans are complacent because Coach K has such a great record vs Izzo, and because Duke beat Michigan State with Bagley sitting 3/4's of the game. But Coach K has faced Izzo once with this squad. If anything, I would think the head to head record serves as extra incentive for Michigan State. And while Duke didn't have Bagley for the full game - Allen (37 pts on 7-11 3 pt shooting) and Duval (17 pts, 10 assists, 6 steals and only 3 turnovers) played well above average (if not the best games of their Duke careers). Duke played one of its best (if not best) games of the season and won by 8.

Additionally, I have always thought I would not want to face Michigan State in the first game of a tournament weekend because you are guaranteed to be physically worn down. This is a team that practices with football pads at times. I, for one, really hope Michigan State loses before reaching the sweet 16.

[quahog174]

Bonzie Colson? I mean, he looks old, but...LOL By chance was that his dad, or unrelated.

Another note: Coach K's second FF team, and totally unexpected. Strickland and Smith were good players out of nowhere. The first of K's 5 FF's in a row. If I'm not mistaken, they got down 14-0 to Kansas to start the semi finals, and would've taken their first lead late on a Kevin Strickland 3, which went halfway down and then somehow spun out, and Duke never recovered. UK won it all two days later.

Yes, his dad.

[budwom]

KU played Oregon in the E8 a year ago, 25 minutes from campus in KC, and vomited all over themselves. Oregon had like 4 fans in the arena.

Omaha shouldn't scare anybody.

And this is precisely why team managers bring multiple uniforms to each game.

[budwom]

Just saw the eminently useless Lunardi talking about MSU beating Duke in the Sweet 16 like it’s already happened. “Hard to believe from a team...” blah, blah. Of course, it could happen. But nothing will explain why on earth he has a job to begin with.

You do realize that The Loon's gig at ESPN is part time only, and his major job is at St. Joe's...? He's just an annual annoying distraction, like Parump a Pum Pum at Christmas.

[Tripping William]

Bonzie Colson? I mean, he looks old, but...LOL By chance was that his dad, or unrelated.

Another note: Coach K's second FF team, and totally unexpected. Strickland and Smith were good players out of nowhere. The first of K's 5 FF's in a row. If I'm not mistaken, they got down 14-0 to Kansas to start the semi finals, and would've taken their first lead late on a Kevin Strickland 3, which went halfway down and then somehow spun out, and Duke never recovered. UK won it all two days later.

UK ≠ KU

Danny Manning & the KU Jayhawks (not those scrubs from Lexington, KY).

[CDu]

Bonzie Colson? I mean, he looks old, but...LOL By chance was that his dad, or unrelated.

Yes, Bonzie Colson Jr (of Notre Dame fame) is Bonzie Colson's son.

[richardjackson199]

Opening odds to win

Villanova 7 to 1
unc 13 to 1
Xavier 14 to 1
Virginia 10 to 1
Jayhawks 18 to 1
Duke 8 to 1

And MSU at 9 to 1 FWIW.

Nova, Kansas, and UVA all seem like good bets at those odds.

Cincy at 45 to 1 and Purdue at 28 to 1 are also good bets given the odds.

[chris13]

I really, really, really want Duke-Oklahoma in the second round. OU is such a flawed team, and I really want to see Young v Duke.

Both RI and Oklahoma are not good teams from an efficiency perspective. I think our road to the S16 is very, very nice.

Round to the F4 is obviously challenging, but Kansas/MSU don't have easy paths. TCU is the #22 best team with a great offense. Seton Hall is the #26 best team. And NC State can beat anyone, anywhere.

It's not a guarantee but Kansas gets to open in Wichita, which should help them get to the Sweet 16 and if they make it to the regional they get to play in Omaha. Duke or MSU or someone else could beat them but they are going to have a pretty significant home court advantage in every game they play in the region. Although I saw TexHawks post about Oregon beating KU in Kansas City last year.

[Sir Stealth]

I think some Duke fans are complacent because Coach K has such a great record vs Izzo, and because Duke beat Michigan State with Bagley sitting 3/4's of the game. But Coach K has faced Izzo once with this squad. If anything, I would think the head to head record serves as extra incentive for Michigan State. And while Duke didn't have Bagley for the full game - Allen (37 pts on 7-11 3 pt shooting) and Duval (17 pts, 10 assists, 6 steals and only 3 turnovers) played well above average (if not the best games of their Duke careers). Duke played one of its best (if not best) games of the season and won by 8.


This is what worries me about potentially playing Michigan St. more than anything. It's probably something close to a gambler's fallacy to think this way (or worse, because we probably do usually have the favored team, not 50/50), but it just seems like we have beaten them too high a percentage of a time given the consistent strength of their program for it not to even out. It kind of felt that way against UNC in the ACC Tourney also - how many neutral site matchups can be won against a good program before something the ball bounces the wrong way? I recognize that this thinking is extremely flawed given that the teams are completely different and the sample is relatively small, but I can't help but feel concerned. Can Coach K really own Izzo that much?

[budwom]

perhaps time to unleash sports cliche number three regarding MSU, which even my wife has memorized: "We respect their ballclub but we don't fear their ballclub."

[kAzE]

I really, really, really want Duke-Oklahoma in the second round. OU is such a flawed team, and I really want to see Young v Duke.

I couldn't possibly disagree more . . . I want nothing to do with Trae Young. I don't care about ratings, I want to survive and advance. Rhode Island is lower on KenPom than Oklahoma and they don't have a guy who can go unconscious and hit off the dribble 30 footers in your face. CJ McCollum comes to mind pretty quickly (http://www.espn.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320760150) when thinking about a possible match up with OU.

[howardlander]

I couldn't possibly disagree more . . . I want nothing to do with Trae Young. I don't care about ratings, I want to survive and advance. Rhode Island is lower on KenPom than Oklahoma and they don't have a guy who can go unconscious and hit off the dribble 30 footers in your face. CJ McCollum comes to mind pretty quickly (http://www.espn.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320760150) when thinking about a possible match up with OU.

Yeah, I agree completely. The potential Bootsy factor is way too high with Oklahoma. Much rather play Rhode Island.

[clutch299]

I feel like most of the so-called experts are clamoring about MSU right now (all of the bracketology hosts picked them to beat Duke and make the final four), and I always hear the "Tom Izzo's teams are always at their best in March" adage as well, so I wanted to look further into whether this is even true.

Michigan State's last national championship was in 2000 with Mateen Cleaves, who is now 40. (Marvin Bagley had yet to turn 1 at that point, for even more perspective)

MSU's last two final four appearances were in 2010 and 2015, and we all know how those years ended up. Grayson Allen threw down one of his best dunks in his college career off an offensive rebound in 2015. A dunk that makes MSU fans shudder still today.

Duke eliminated MSU in 2015 and 2013. (2015 was a final four game, 2013 was a sweet 16 game. Duke went on to lose in the elite 8 in 2013 to a team that never existed, according to the history books.)

MSU lost in the first round as a 2-seed to Middle Tennessee St. just 2 years ago.

Them's the facts. Take them for what you will, but to me, it seems like Michigan State has been a team with an impressive resume of NCAA tournament appearances, and is usually competitive, and certainly deserving of full attention should we play them in the Sweet 16, but I just can't understand why they are so highly regarded by all the experts. Especially since Duke has ended their season multiple times in the last couple years and we beat them earlier this year at a neutral site without Bagley for 3/4 of the game. I can't believe none of the "experts" had Duke beating MSU.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Yeah, I agree completely. The potential Bootsy factor is way too high with Oklahoma. Much rather play Rhode Island.

Plus, can you imagine the high Oklahoma would be in with the chance to knock off Duke - in the face of a nation of doubters saying they shouldn't even be in the dance? I'd rather not tangle with any team that has un-natural hyper-motivation. We get enough of that just being Duke.

[Ian]

I feel like most of the so-called experts are clamoring about MSU right now (all of the bracketology hosts picked them to beat Duke and make the final four), and I always hear the "Tom Izzo's teams are always at their best in March" adage as well, so I wanted to look further into whether this is even true.

Michigan State's last national championship was in 2000 with Mateen Cleaves, who is now 40. (Marvin Bagley had yet to turn 1 at that point, for even more perspective)

MSU's last two final four appearances were in 2010 and 2015, and we all know how those years ended up. Grayson Allen threw down one of his best dunks in his college career off an offensive rebound in 2015. A dunk that makes MSU fans shudder still today.

Duke eliminated MSU in 2015 and 2013. (2015 was a final four game, 2013 was a sweet 16 game. Duke went on to lose in the elite 8 in 2013 to a team that never existed, according to the history books.)

MSU lost in the first round as a 2-seed to Middle Tennessee St. just 2 years ago.

Them's the facts. Take them for what you will, but to me, it seems like Michigan State has been a team with an impressive resume of NCAA tournament appearances, and is usually competitive, and certainly deserving of full attention should we play them in the Sweet 16, but I just can't understand why they are so highly regarded by all the experts. Especially since Duke has ended their season multiple times in the last couple years and we beat them earlier this year at a neutral site without Bagley for 3/4 of the game. I can't believe none of the "experts" had Duke beating MSU.

Michigan St has had good success in March under Izzo, but it's not better than Duke's under K. Since Izzo has started coaching in MSU, he's 5-4 as a top 3 seed against other top 3 seeds. Duke during the same span? 8-7.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I couldn't possibly disagree more . . . I want nothing to do with Trae Young. I don't care about ratings, I want to survive and advance. Rhode Island is lower on KenPom than Oklahoma and they don't have a guy who can go unconscious and hit off the dribble 30 footers in your face. CJ McCollum comes to mind pretty quickly (http://www.espn.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320760150) when thinking about a possible match up with OU.

Nah- I like the story lines. And I like the match up.

While Young does scare me somewhat, the rest of the team is a joke. Also, Young is a baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad defensive player. Just awful.

This is, at the end of the day (or season), a poor team. Young is great (albiet flawed), but their remaining players aren't talented. And they rely on Young's distribution to get points.

[kAzE]

Nah- I like the story lines. And I like the match up.

While Young does scare me somewhat, the rest of the team is a joke. Also, Young is a baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad defensive player. Just awful.

This is, at the end of the day (or season), a poor team. Young is great (albiet flawed), but their remaining players aren't talented. And they rely on Young's distribution to get points.

I mean, the match ups with both URI and OU are good for us. I'd just rather play the team with a smaller chance to beat us, and that's gotta be URI.

Put another way, URI has almost no chance of having the best player in the game vs. Duke. OU has a decent shot at that.

OU has wins this season against Wichita St., Oklahoma St., TCU (twice), Texas Tech, and Kansas.

URI's best win this year is against Seton Hall . . .

No question OU is more dangerous. Sometimes, all it takes to pull off an upset is one guy getting hot from 3. Going up against Trae Young in win or go home game is playing with fire.

[CDu]

I mean, the match ups with both URI and OU are good for us. I'd just rather play the team with a smaller chance to beat us, and that's gotta be URI.

Put another way, URI has almost no chance of having the best player in the game vs. Duke. OU has a decent shot at that.

OU has wins this season against Wichita St., Oklahoma St., TCU (twice), Texas Tech, and Kansas.

URI's best win this year is against Seton Hall . . .

No question OU is more dangerous.

Yeah, and this is borne out in the season-long outcomes. Rhode Island's best win this year is a 1-point win over Seton Hall on a neutral site. Oklahoma has beaten Wichita State in Wichita and TCU at TCU, and have won at home against Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU (among other top-50 wins). They've shown they can compete with the best teams in the country. They've also shown they can get walloped by the best in the country. But on the right day, they have proven they can beat almost anyone. Rhode Island has not done that. Partly because they simply haven't played against many good teams. But in general, when they have played good teams, they've lost.

[WV_Iron_Duke]

Here is a quote from a Michigan State alumni friend of mine:
"I certainly don't feel that MSU's #3 seed is unfair, nor does Coach Izzo. He has great athletes but the current team basketball IQ is low - they often lose to teams with smart Guards, are slow to adapt to unexpected tactics and easily lose focus. Izzo cannot teach them an advanced half-court game. "

[quahog174]

I mean, the match ups with both URI and OU are good for us. I'd just rather play the team with a smaller chance to beat us, and that's gotta be URI.

Put another way, URI has almost no chance of having the best player in the game vs. Duke. OU has a decent shot at that.

OU has wins this season against Wichita St., Oklahoma St., TCU (twice), Texas Tech, and Kansas.

URI's best win this year is against Seton Hall . . .

No question OU is more dangerous. Sometimes, all it takes to pull off an upset is one guy getting hot from 3. Going up against Trae Young in win or go home game is playing with fire.

URI has experienced guards which mean a lot in the tourney. If we are not careful E.C. Matthews will light it up.

[rolm]

Data analytics of the bracket in the Washington Post. The author's explanation isn't very convincing (incomplete), but an interesting read. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/03/12/the-perfect-bracket-to-win-your-march-madness-pool/?utm_term=.5a2a95c65d93

[kAzE]

URI has experienced guards which mean a lot in the tourney. If we are not careful E.C. Matthews will light it up.

With all due respect to E.C. Matthews . . . that is the first time I have become aware of his existence. Trae young is a top 3 Wooden Award candidate. I'll take the guy I've never heard of please.

[flyingdutchdevil]

With all due respect to E.C. Matthews . . . that is the first time I have become aware of his existence. Trae young is a top 3 Wooden Award candidate. I'll take the guy I've never heard of please.

Like CJ McCollum? ;)

[kAzE]

Like CJ McCollum? ;)

Oh I knew who McCollum was. Most people probably didn't, but that dude had been balling out for 3 years already up to that point. He averaged 19 points a game as a freshman, and was already a 2-time Patriot League player of the year when we faced him in his junior season.

E.C. Matthews is a 5th year senior who shoots 30% from 3, averages 0.8 assists, and doesn't get to the foul line very often. We'll be fine.

[budwom]

I mean, the match ups with both URI and OU are good for us. I'd just rather play the team with a smaller chance to beat us, and that's gotta be URI.

Put another way, URI has almost no chance of having the best player in the game vs. Duke. OU has a decent shot at that.

OU has wins this season against Wichita St., Oklahoma St., TCU (twice), Texas Tech, and Kansas.

URI's best win this year is against Seton Hall . . .

No question OU is more dangerous. Sometimes, all it takes to pull off an upset is one guy getting hot from 3. Going up against Trae Young in win or go home game is playing with fire.

I personally think URI is more of a threat to us than Oklahoma...they're not a name team, but they're a very good team. KenPom has Oklahoma at #47, URI at #49, and their game prediction
a one point Sooner win.

[uh_no]

With all due respect to E.C. Matthews . . . that is the first time I have become aware of his existence. Trae young is a top 3 Wooden Award candidate. I'll take the guy I've never heard of please.

Actually, I'd take Oklahoma. The zone puts us in a position where it's far harder for one person to beat us off the dribble...there simply aren't 5 guys on the court for oklahoma you have to pay much attention to, and their defense stinks. I'd be much more worried about an experienced team who can successfully execute an offensive gameplan while also playing decent defense.

Anyway, you want to let one player try to beat us? go ahead. we were susceptible to that before because our defenses were inflexible and bad. We've played good defense against enough teams now that I'm confident we can adjust to an all star and 4 nobodies.

[kAzE]

Actually, I'd take Oklahoma. The zone puts us in a position where it's far harder for one person to beat us off the dribble...there simply aren't 5 guys on the court for oklahoma you have to pay much attention to, and their defense stinks. I'd be much more worried about an experienced team who can successfully execute an offensive gameplan while also playing decent defense.

Anyway, you want to let one player try to beat us? go ahead. we were susceptible to that before because our defenses were inflexible and bad. We've played good defense against enough teams now that I'm confident we can adjust to an all star and 4 nobodies.

More reason to fear OU: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2018-bracket-picks-computer-model-all-in-on-michigan-oklahoma-michigan-state/

[Bluedevil114]

I get it. I just don't agree with it.

The fact is Michigan State hasn't lost this season to a team that isn't a 5-seed or better in the NCAAT. To me, that's the story. Anything else about SOS, RPI, B1G strength, etc is secondary to that fact. Obviously, the Committee (and others around here) don't agree with me, which is totally fine.

Meanwhile, the talking heads are all trumpeting Michigan as a new trendy FF pick. Like MSU, Michigan got a 3-seed despite 3 losses to non-Tourney teams. Out of conference, the only respectable teams they beat were UCLA and Texas, two teams that barely made it in.

Look, MSU getting a 3-seed isn't absurd. It's well within a reasonable range of where they should be seeded. I just think they are under-respected this year due to scheduling deficiencies that are being over-analyzed. They beat Purdue, UNC, Notre Dame with Bonzie, They went 16-2 in a power conference and unfortunately lost in their tourney to a good Michigan team. If Duke's name were swapped with theirs, a lot of people would be up in arms that Duke should have been a 1-seed, let alone a 3.

- Chillin
I really hope they are right and Michigan gets to the Final Four.

9F

[TexHawk]

Anyway, you want to let one player try to beat us? go ahead. we were susceptible to that before because our defenses were inflexible and bad. We've played good defense against enough teams now that I'm confident we can adjust to an all star and 4 nobodies.

Young is actually not the best perimeter shooter on OU's roster. Statistically, James and Manek are better, as is Odomes (on many MANY fewer attempts). McGusty has had a rough year, and he's just a hair worse than Young, he was much better last season. Young can be a good distributor when he wants to be. Of course, Manek is just a freshman, and their defense is still terrible.

I can squint and see them giving Duke a game, if they slowed it down and Young and one of the others had a good-to-excellent shooting day. Problem is, they can't really play slow, and several of their guys have hit a wall. I'm guessing Carter and Bagley would have a field day.

[phaedrus]

I feel like most of the so-called experts are clamoring about MSU right now (all of the bracketology hosts picked them to beat Duke and make the final four), and I always hear the "Tom Izzo's teams are always at their best in March" adage as well, so I wanted to look further into whether this is even true.

Michigan State's last national championship was in 2000 with Mateen Cleaves, who is now 40. (Marvin Bagley had yet to turn 1 at that point, for even more perspective)

MSU's last two final four appearances were in 2010 and 2015, and we all know how those years ended up. Grayson Allen threw down one of his best dunks in his college career off an offensive rebound in 2015. A dunk that makes MSU fans shudder still today.

Duke eliminated MSU in 2015 and 2013. (2015 was a final four game, 2013 was a sweet 16 game. Duke went on to lose in the elite 8 in 2013 to a team that never existed, according to the history books.)

MSU lost in the first round as a 2-seed to Middle Tennessee St. just 2 years ago.

Them's the facts. Take them for what you will, but to me, it seems like Michigan State has been a team with an impressive resume of NCAA tournament appearances, and is usually competitive, and certainly deserving of full attention should we play them in the Sweet 16, but I just can't understand why they are so highly regarded by all the experts. Especially since Duke has ended their season multiple times in the last couple years and we beat them earlier this year at a neutral site without Bagley for 3/4 of the game. I can't believe none of the "experts" had Duke beating MSU.

I think the "Michigan State peaks in March" narrative stems from a few seasons where the Spartans overachieved compared to their seed after starting the season very slowly. In 2010, they made the Final Four as a 5. In 2014, they made the Elite Eight as a 4, beating 1-seed Virginia in the process. In 2015, they made the Final Four as a 7-seed.

These were impressive runs. But in the same time period, they also flamed out as higher seeds: in 2012, as a 1-seed, they lost in the Sweet 16. In 2016, as a 2, they lost in the first round to the 15 (the horror!).

One could observe, based on this small sample size, that they tend to overachieve when given a low-ish seed but underachieve when given a high seed. More likely, the randomness of the tournament leads to inconsistent results in different seasons.

[House G]

It’s no secret that Oklahoma’s record over the second half of the season has been dismal (7-12 since the first of the year, including 6 straight losses). Teams playing against Young the second time around have been able to make adjustments as you would expect. The blueprint for this has been out there for awhile and is described in this article: http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/01/18/whats-wrong-with-trae-young-an-in-depth-look-at-how-defenses-are-adjusting-to-the-oklahoma-superstar/
If Duke plays Oklahoma, it will be interesting to see if we stay with our current zone or try some of the measures outlined. Having a healthy Duvall would certainly be helpful. And for what it’s worth, Young leads college BB in per game points, assists, and turnovers.

[slower]

Yes, and I think there was one other close game. Surprised no one has mentioned their color scheme and mascot are eerily similar to a supposed institution of higher learning eight miles down the road.
Hey, I still want to know why Rhode Island fans don't refer to themselves as URInation! :p

[slower]

Sorry but this is such a silly poll..I just can’t understand why any Duke fan that would vote for another team.
Maybe because some of them live in the reality-based world?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Maybe because some of them live in the reality-based world?

Indeed. I pulled like the dickens for Duke to beat Florida State a few years ago in the ACC FB Title game......but I didn't predict Duke to win.
(BTW, I predicted Duke, but I would certainly understand a Kansas or Michigan State prediction.)

[GeneBanksManCrush]

"Experts" are ranking the Midwest as the toughest region but that's because we're in it!!!

[UrinalCake]

How far away from Omaha is Kansas? I get all of them big flat states mixed up.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

How far away from Omaha is Kansas? I get all of them big flat states mixed up.

It appears to be about 150 miles to the Kansas border, and another 100 to Lawrence KS. However, someone on this forum familiar with Nebraska say that state is full of Kansas basketball fans anyway. I found that interesting. I wonder if Kansas is full of Nebraska football fans?

[Crisker]

It appears to be about 150 miles to the Kansas border, and another 100 to Lawrence KS. However, someone on this forum familiar with Nebraska say that state is full of Kansas basketball fans anyway. I found that interesting. I wonder if Kansas is full of Nebraska football fans?

I grew up in Nebraska and it's my home state; as you might expect, I don't live there. Basketball fans in the state are bitterly divided between Creighton and long-suffering (no NCAA tournament wins) Nebraska. Hot-blooded Nebraska fans think that if you are a Nebraska native, then you must be consistent; in other words, you cannot be a Nebraska football fan and then choose Creighton for hoops. Since many Nebraskans understandably prefer Creighton for their basketball, these people are derisively known as "Jayskers."

Having said all that, I would say that most Kansas fans in Nebraska are Kansas natives who moved there. The only advantage Kansas has playing in Omaha is that it is relatively close to Dorothy's home state. When Kansas fans come to Omaha, they marvel at the prairie metropolis and exclaim "we're not in Kansas anymore!"

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I grew up in Nebraska and it's my home state; as you might expect, I don't live there. Basketball fans in the state are bitterly divided between Creighton and long-suffering (no NCAA tournament wins) Nebraska. Hot-blooded Nebraska fans think that if you are a Nebraska native, then you must be consistent; in other words, you cannot be a Nebraska football fan and then choose Creighton for hoops. Since many Nebraskans understandably prefer Creighton for their basketball, these people are derisively known as "Jayskers."

Having said all that, I would say that most Kansas fans in Nebraska are Kansas natives who moved there. The only advantage Kansas has playing in Omaha is that it is relatively close to Dorothy's home state. When Kansas fans come to Omaha, they marvel at the prairie metropolis and exclaim "we're not in Kansas anymore!"

Thanks for the local insight......and BTW, the Huskers got them a really good FB coach this time I believe. We'll save that chat for FB season....

[duke96]

Not to be presumptuous, but Anyone smart enough to figure out when our Saturday game would most likely be in the event we are able to win on Thursday?

[uh_no]

Not to be presumptuous, but Anyone smart enough to figure out when our Saturday game would most likely be in the event we are able to win on Thursday?

probably depends on the exact matchups that transpire. in short, cbs will let us know that night probably

[Bluedog]

Not to be presumptuous, but Anyone smart enough to figure out when our Saturday game would most likely be in the event we are able to win on Thursday?

No way to know until matchups are set. They try to put the ones that would get the highest ratings in the most optimal times for TV viewing. That's all we know.

[duke96]

No way to know until matchups are set. They try to put the ones that would get the highest ratings in the most optimal times for TV viewing. That's all we know.

Would that be like mid-afternoon / early evening EDT? thanks for the help!

[CDu]

Would that be like mid-afternoon / early evening EDT? thanks for the help!

As was said, it depends what all of the matchups are for Saturday. It could be that Duke gets a prime slot, or it could be that it isn’t a prime slot. So it could be almost anything really.

[proelitedota]

Something less serious for a moment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wh1L0rOaa88

Duke gets a good mention.

[UrinalCake]

As was said, it depends what all of the matchups are for Saturday. It could be that Duke gets a prime slot, or it could be that it isn’t a prime slot. So it could be almost anything really.

But aren't there only two time slots for that pod, and the only question is which of those two we would be in? I thought I remember that type of scenario in previous years. That would at least help us narrow down how we structure our weekend :)

Thanks to all for the Kansas/Nebraska info. I was starting to worry about another "playing SC in SC" type of scenario. Even playing Arizona in Anaheim felt like a true road game, at least on TV.

[CDu]

But aren't there only two time slots for that pod, and the only question is which of those two we would be in? I thought I remember that type of scenario in previous years. That would at least help us narrow down how we structure our weekend :)

There are only two time slots. But I don’t know that those have been specified yet. Presumably they could be shifted depending upon the matchups for the day.

[duketaylor]

All of the ESPN 'experts' are picking MSU to prevail and to go on to win the Natty. The Wash Post, however, has a very different, and interesting, analysis. Worth a read:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/03/11/the-three-best-bets-to-win-the-2018-ncaa-tournament/? utm_term=.ea066354d2af
.
That's an excellent read, thanks for that!!

[duketaylor]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/futures/

Very interesting, IMO.

[TexHawk]

Thanks to all for the Kansas/Nebraska info. I was starting to worry about another "playing SC in SC" type of scenario. Even playing Arizona in Anaheim felt like a true road game, at least on TV.

Oh, it would be a decidely pro-Jayhawk crowd. Not only is it close, there are many KU hoops fans in Nebraska (just like there are many Husker football fans in Kansas). No idea what the "SC in SC" scenario was like, but at least you wouldn't have UNC fans in Omaha cheering against you. If KU makes it to the E8, there will be a traffic jam on I-29 of fans coming up from Lawrence & KC, trying to buy up tickets from the losers in the S16.

Of course, as already stated re: Oregon in 2017, that is not a guarantee of anything.

[English]

Oh, it would be a decidely pro-Jayhawk crowd. Not only is it close, there are many KU hoops fans in Nebraska (just like there are many Husker football fans in Kansas). No idea what the "SC in SC" scenario was like, but at least you wouldn't have UNC fans in Omaha cheering against you. If KU makes it to the E8, there will be a traffic jam on I-29 of fans coming up from Lawrence & KC, trying to buy up tickets from the losers in the S16.

Of course, as already stated re: Oregon in 2017, that is not a guarantee of anything.

It'll be very interesting--should it come to pass--to see what the betting lines looks like for the potential KU-Duke or KU-MSU matchups. I'm guessing either would be close to PK, even in KU's backyard.

[TexHawk]

It'll be very interesting--should it come to pass--to see what the betting lines looks like for the potential KU-Duke or KU-MSU matchups. I'm guessing either would be close to PK, even in KU's backyard.

Agreed. On a neutral court, KU would not be favored against MSU or Duke, semi-neutral makes a difference, but not a ton.

KU was only a 1.5 point favorite over West Virginia last weekend in Kansas City, and they are a 5 seed.

[gam7]

Duke could be playing for win 1.1K vs. the team the same opponent as win .903K.

[bedeviled]

Pittsburgh press conference: Oklahoma, Iona, Rhode Island, Duke.
Youtube link to the start of the Duke section (https://youtu.be/vjVTYfpzqsI?t=2h11m57s).

[pfrduke]

Arizona State and Syracuse are doing an excellent job validating all the naysayers who said they didn't belong in the tournament. This has been AWFUL basketball.

[Bluedog]

Arizona St with a great look from 3 to likely win it, but come up short...

[Owen Meany]

If Syracuse beats TCU, Michigan State will get an entire game to practice against the 2-3 zone (like UNC in the ACC tournament). I'm likely paranoid, but the success of Syracuse's zone is often attributed to teams unfamiliarity with it.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

If Syracuse beats TCU, Michigan State will get an entire game to practice against the 2-3 zone (like UNC in the ACC tournament). I'm likely paranoid, but the success of Syracuse's zone is often attributed to teams unfamiliarity with it.

Well thank you for that.....I needed another reason to worry today........

[Owen Meany]

This may make you feel better, and comes from Seth Greenburg of all people. I hadn't thought about it, but Jamie Dixon is now at TCU and he is very familiar with Syracuse's zone (actually dating back to their days in the Big East). Surprisingly, Jamie Dixon is 14-6 vs Boeheim. So he knows what to expect.


Usually, it seems, when everyone looks forward to matchup it ends up not happening. So hopefully Oklahoma and MSU both lose, and Duke wins, before the teams end up meeting. I think Duke can beat both (and should beat Oklahoma at the very least), but would be glad if the matchups never materialize.

[Troublemaker]

This may make you feel better, and comes from Seth Greenburg of all people. I hadn't thought about it, but Jamie Dixon is now at TCU and he is very familiar with Syracuse's zone (actually dating back to their days in the Big East). Surprisingly, Jamie Dixon is 14-6 vs Boeheim. So he knows what to expect.


Usually, it seems, when everyone looks forward to matchup it ends up not happening. So hopefully Oklahoma and MSU both lose, and Duke wins, before the teams end up meeting. I think Duke can beat both (and should beat Oklahoma at the very least), but would be glad if the matchups never materialize.

It's a tough choice between URI and OU. Knowing Duke fans, most will probably just believe that whoever wins the URI-OU game is the worse matchup for Duke, so I'm glad to see some are making the choice beforehand.

I'm going to come down on the side of (slightly) preferring OU to beat URI. CDu summarized what we are choosing really well in the Phase thread. URI picks at a weakness (turnovers) while OU potentially bends a strength (the zone) out of shape if Young is hitting from 27 feet. Ultimately, I choose to protect the weakness and will hope that the strength can cope against an unusual threat.

[English]

It's a tough choice between URI and OU. Knowing Duke fans, most will probably just believe that whoever wins the URI-OU game is the worse matchup for Duke, so I'm glad to see some are making the choice beforehand.

I'm going to come down on the side of (slightly) preferring OU to beat URI. CDu summarized what we are choosing really well in the Phase thread. URI picks at a weakness (turnovers) while OU potentially bends a strength (the zone) out of shape if Young is hitting from 27 feet. Ultimately, I choose to protect the weakness and will hope that the strength can cope against an unusual threat.

Cop out? You betcha! I'm completely ignoring the URI-OU matchup WRT hoping for one over the other, because of last year's SCar-Marquette first round game. I was convinced, as bad as SCar's offense was, that the better matchup for our suspect defense was SCar. Sure enough, they won their opener and it bit us. This year, I think we beat either URI or OU, but I'm just going to enjoy that game, hope for an entertaining, competitive matchup, and let the chips fall where they may. A couple of OTs for that game wouldn't hurt either, although it certainly wouldn't help my eagerness for our game to start.

As for last night's play-in game, I got an absolute chuckle out of the halftime interview with Jimmy B:
Interviewer: Coach, to what do you attribute that slow start to the game from your players?
Boeheim: Oh, no, that's just how we play.

Thanks for honesty, Boeheim. What a dreadful game to watch. I picked Cuse to cover and hit the under in the DBR fake gambling contest, so I was kind of, sort of, rooting for them (although, part of me wanted Bobby to notch his first HC NCAAT win). But man, you'd have to be a masochist to watch that start-to-finish.

[Owen Meany]

More reason to Fillmore RI - Tre Young now 11 assists from Hurley's NCAA freshman record. 10 now as I type.

[Owen Meany]

Autocorrect gone mad. More reason to pull for...

For those unable to watch, RI just hit a 3 for first lead Since 10 minute mark. Then steals he ball from Young 1 on 1 in the backcourt. Rather than drive for the layup or wait on teammates come back, he immediately pulls up and hits a 3. TO Oklahoma.

[DukeWarhead]

Gotta love a name like Fatts Russell. Poppin 3s. If he meets Duke, hope he cools off.

[jv001]

Oklahoma has a hard time stopping the dribble drive(like Duke's man2man) but in the first half they were blocking shots at the rim. Not so much in the 2nd half. GoDuke!

[Owen Meany]

Fats is a 35% fg, 28% 3pt shooter for 6.8 points per game - prior to today. RI looks like a totally different team in the second half.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Good game. So close to a win for RI.

[TruBlu]

OU and URI overtime. 2:45 start for our game is doubtful.

[duke4ever19]

Dang it. Overtime.

I have an appointment and don't have a large window to watch the Duke game. Fun game, either way, though.

[Truth&Justise]

I'm fine with overtime. Let them get nice and tired.

[Owen Meany]

RI fouls Tre Young with 15 secs left 5 feet behind the 3 pt line. Makes both tieing score. RI misses 10 footer, then misses rebound followup 3 feet from goal. First of hopefully many, many OTs.

[UrinalCake]

RI definitely didn't finish strong in regulation, but looks like the better team so far in OT. Kansas down big to Penn more than halfway through the first half...

[WHOneedsSOX]

RI definitely didn't finish strong in regulation, but looks like the better team so far in OT. Kansas down big to Penn more than halfway through the first half...

Only down 8 now. They'll still probably win by 20+.

[Truth&Justise]

Dagger from EC Matthews in OT. That ought to do it for Rhode Island.

[gocanes0506]

a bunch of upper classmen can be dangerous in this tourney.

Trae Young did the overrated Trae Young thing, jacked up 30+ foot threes for no reason. Cost them the game.

Look like a very good team.

[duke4ever19]

No way Graham was shooting on that foul. Kansas gets three free points to end the half.

[Truth&Justise]

No way Graham was shooting on that foul. Kansas gets three free points to end the half.

I doubt it will make a difference. Those three capped a 22-5 Kansas run to end the half. Can't imagine Penn making a game of it in the second half.

[UrinalCake]

RI looks strong from three. Hopefully that won’t be the case against our defenders (I know, jumping ahead). I really would have preferred to play OK but we should still be able to get it done.

[gocanes0506]

RI looks strong from three. Hopefully that won’t be the case against our defenders (I know, jumping ahead). I really would have preferred to play OK but we should still be able to get it done.

One of the best guy today was crazy hot from 3. Usually a 20ish % 3 shooter, shot much better than that today. hopefully, he shot himself cold for Saturday.

[MarkD83]

RI looks strong from three. Hopefully that won’t be the case against our defenders (I know, jumping ahead). I really would have preferred to play OK but we should still be able to get it done.

One game at a time

[ChrisP]

Anyone else watching State stink it up vs the Hall? Wow, horrible guard play. Yuck!

[PackMan97]

Anyone else watching State stink it up vs the Hall? Wow, horrible guard play. Yuck!

Playing on borrowed time. No one expected an NCAA trip and we played like it.

[Bob Green]

State looked like crap. That's my major takeaway from the time I wasted watching the Wolfpack gack all over themselves; however, I am compelled to point out several of the fouls called on Yurtseven were questionable. Touch fouls at best.

[jv001]

State looked like crap. That's my major takeaway from the time I wasted watching the Wolfpack gack all over themselves; however, I am compelled to point out several of the fouls called on Yurtseven were questionable. Touch fouls at best.

Did I hear the announcer say that 50 total fouls called in this game. GoDuke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

State looked like crap. That's my major takeaway from the time I wasted watching the Wolfpack gack all over themselves; however, I am compelled to point out several of the fouls called on Yurtseven were questionable. Touch fouls at best.

This is typical of State.....they'll have a world beater game against Duke, celebrate like they won the Super Bowl, and bow out disgracefully and early in the NCAA, or maybe even miss the NCAAs.

I thought their new coach would turn the page on that....but same ole Pack today.

[TruBlu]

Did I hear the announcer say that 50 total fouls called in this game. GoDuke!

Actually, 53.
30 on State
23 on the Hall

[Bob Green]

I thought their new coach would turn the page on that...but same ole Pack today.

Keatts has a tall task in front of him. Hopefully he is up to the challenge.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Keatts has a tall task in front of him. Hopefully he is up to the challenge.

I think he is, and he made tremendous strides this year...3-0 versus Duke/cheats combined...beating Zona....I mean, they are capable of being very good, this year. Today? What a stinker. They should be embarrassed for their entire performance, (and Miami should be embarrassed about the last 2 minutes.)

[Bob Green]

...3-0 versus Duke/cheats combined...

2-1. Carolina beat State in their second game.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

2-1. Carolina beat State in their second game.

Oops, my bad.

[duke4ever19]

Bucknell could have won that game if they didn't go over 10 minutes without a field goal. That killed any chance.

[Bluedog]

Cheering for Cuse or TCU?? I guess whoever has a better chance at beating MSU which is probably TCU.

[robed deity]

Cheering for Cuse or TCU?? I guess whoever has a better chance at beating MSU which is probably TCU.

Gotta win tomorrow, and I think it may be tough. But part of me is concerned about MSU seeing the Syracuse zone before a possible matchup with Duke.

[jbay201]

TCU last thing you need is MSU to see the zone before playing us. Stupid bucknell made their run too late! msu looks weak especially as bucknell had to be one of the most nonathletic teams i have ever seen play the tourney. their starting pg was really slow and small and missed a bunch of free throws...duval is way better than him. buffalo would have destroyed msu!

[ipatent]

Rooting for TCU, I don't want Michigan State to get acclimated to the zone.

[Bluedog]

Dolejaz fouled out with 6 minutes to go. Stupid foul. Cuse not deep, but they're hanging tough. I actually think they have a better chance to beat MSU but if they come up short, I agree that would rather not have MSU practice against a zone. MSU will have a de facto home game on Sunday. Of course, we need to take care of business tomorrow and not taking anything for granted.

[Bluedog]

Well Cuse pulled it out! Funny that the best team from the ACC suffers the worst defeat in NCAA history and the team nobody thought should even make the tournament has now won two games. I think they have a decent shot at MSU given short turnaround and not much time for them to prepare for the zone.

[jbay201]

Well Cuse pulled it out! Funny that the best team from the ACC suffers the worst defeat in NCAA history and the team nobody thought should even make the tournament has now won two games. I think they have a decent shot at MSU given short turnaround and not much time for them to prepare for the zone.

agree with you! better beat them though cuz i would hate for mich state to get practice against the zone before playing us. much prefer rematch with syracuse.

[hallcity]

Kansas having some problems with Seton Hall’s zone.

[rsvman]

Which team do you think would be a better potential matchup for Duke, Kansas or Seton Hall?

[rsvman]

Guess it doesn't matter anymore. Fat woman may not be singing, but she has a throat lozenge in her mouth and she's warming up.

[duke4ever19]

Guess it doesn't matter anymore. Fat woman may not be singing, but she has a throat lozenge in her mouth and she's warming up.

Seton Hall can't get out of its own way. So many stupid shots. That back foot fall-away jumper with the opportunity to get the lead down to 3? Just so stupid.

[weezie]

Yeah what the heck happened here? Draining 3s then bonehead plays. Ugh

[weezie]

What an annoying crowd of rubes too.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

K.U. in the capital of flyover country. Yippy.

Maybe Warren Buffet will show up.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Which team do you think would be a better potential matchup for Duke, Kansas or Seton Hall?

When the Seton Hall Center(Delgado) goes for 24 points and 23 rebounds, I like Bagley & Carter’s chances should we be fortunate enough to face Kansas in the Elite 8.

[Steven43]

When the Seton Hall Center(Delgado) goes for 24 points and 23 rebounds, I like Bagley & Carter’s chances should we be fortunate enough to face Kansas in the Elite 8.

Can you believe Duke might have to beat Michigan State, Kansas, and Villanova in succession just to get to the final? Surely, that would be the toughest road to a final Duke (or just about anyone) has ever faced. Those three are all in the top 5 on just about everyone’s list of teams projected to win the whole thing. The tournament gods were very unkind to Duke this year.

[godins]

Can you believe Duke might have to beat Michigan State, Kansas, and Villanova in succession just to get to the final? Surely, that would be the toughest road to a final Duke (or just about anyone) has ever faced. Those three are all in the top 5 on just about everyone’s list of teams projected to win the whole thing. The tournament gods were very unkind to Duke this year.

There's still a long road there, of course, but I know I don't have to tell you that. A chalk path of MSU, Kansas, Nova would certainly quell any "but you had an easy path!" arguments, which are exhausting to refute (2010 sticks out to me in particular). Meanwhile, the bracket gods have split the other side wide open. I'll be interested to see the havoc they wreak on our half, hopefully starting tomorrow with a Cuse upset of MSU. I think Clemson could give Kansas a run for their money if they make it to the S16 (less certain about Auburn). And, if we did make it to the Final 4, Nova would have to go through a combination of a good WVU team and someone from the bottom half of the region. Lots of ball still to play -- let's keep beating the team in front of us!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Can you believe Duke might have to beat Michigan State, Kansas, and Villanova in succession just to get to the final? Surely, that would be the toughest road to a final Duke (or just about anyone) has ever faced. Those three are all in the top 5 on just about everyone’s list of teams projected to win the whole thing. The tournament gods were very unkind to Duke this year.

This thought drove me to drink last night, as I was considering the cake walk the cheats and Kentucky might have....Duke, Michigan State, Kansas is not a regional, that's a FF field in and of itself. Duke - MSU is a title game....and it might happen in the friggin Sweet 16! Meanwhile, Kentucky will be playing some hyphenated team......

[hallcity]

Was Laettner still at Duke when Tum Tum Nairn started at MSU? That guy has been there forever!

[ChrisP]

If you enjoy offense, you'd be advised to avert your eyes from this MSU / Cuse snoozefest. Sparty looking awful against the zone (3 for 17) with about 7 minutes to go in 1st half)

[dalmatians98]

If you enjoy offense, you'd be advised to avert your eyes from this MSU / Cuse snoozefest. Sparty looking awful against the zone (3 for 17) with about 7 minutes to go in 1st half)

A foul-ridden mess.

[devildeac]

MSU with 25% FG and 50% FT beating Syracuse 37% FG and 63% FT now, 20-19 with 2:00 to go 1st half. :eek: :rolleyes:

[HereBeforeCoachK]

MSU with 25% FG and 50% FT beating Syracuse 37% FG and 63% FT now, 20-19 with 2:00 to go 1st half. :eek: :rolleyes:

And after that last MSU shot at the buzzer? Good Lord. Never seen that.

[OldPhiKap]

And after that last MSU shot at the buzzer? Good Lord. Never seen that.

A jolt of excitement in an hour of watching paint dry.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

A jolt of excitement in an hour of watching paint dry.

I did literally doze off at 2-0 and woke up at 17-15.

[AGDukesky]

Looks like another Michigan team getting all the breaks

[CameronCrazy'11]

Looks like another Michigan team getting all the breaks

How is this game basically tied? Syracuse looks terrible out there. MSU grabbing every rebound.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Offensive rebounding is saving Michigan State. Hope they shoot this poorly Friday if they win this game.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

How is this game basically tied? Syracuse looks terrible out there. MSU grabbing every rebound.

Not only that, Michigan State gets away with anything on the glass, Syracuse gets called every time they even jump.

[Son of Mojo]

Not only that, Michigan State gets away with anything on the glass, Syracuse gets called every time they even jump.

Exactly what it looks like. MSU can do no wrong with zebras, regardless of how much they shove/hand check/go over the back. Very frustrating to watch.

[OldPhiKap]

Exactly what it looks like. MSU can do no wrong with zebras, regardless of how much they shove/hand check/go over the back. Very frustrating to watch.

And now Howard is gone . . .

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Exactly what it looks like. MSU can do no wrong with zebras, regardless of how much they shove/hand check/go over the back. Very frustrating to watch.

And I'm not liking Spanarkel at all.....he's every bit as blind as Dan Bonner is on missed calls. He never sees one.

[kAzE]

I mean . . . Syracuse is shooting about 1000 free throws. I don't get the ref complaints.

[Chard]

Just my opinion but I think Duke plays a better zone than SU. Personnel has a lot to do with it.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I mean . . . Syracuse is shooting about 1000 free throws. I don't get the ref complaints.

Syracuse is penetrating every possession, MSU is almost never penetrating.....that's the difference. The ref problem is on rebounds mostly.

[CameronCrazy'11]

Just my opinion but I think Duke plays a better zone than SU. Personnel has a lot to do with it.

Duke certainly rebounds a whole lot better out of the zone.

[kAzE]

Just my opinion but I think Duke plays a better zone than SU. Personnel has a lot to do with it.

I don't think I'd go that far. They are holding NCAA tournament teams about 30 points below their season averages, and they are longer than us (it sounds absurd, but it's true). We're a vastly better offensive team, but Syracuse's defense at this point in the season is about as good as I've seen from anybody.

[OldPhiKap]

Can’t believe I have to root for Syracuse here. Not natural.

[WHOneedsSOX]

I don't think I'd go that far. They are holding NCAA tournament teams about 30 points below their season averages, and they are longer than us (it sounds absurd, but it's true). We're a vastly better offensive team, but Syracuse's defense at this point in the season is about as good as I've seen from anybody.

All 5 guys move as the ball moves for Syracuse too. What's that saying? They play on a string or something like that. Duke guys don't move together.

[CDu]

I don't think I'd go that far. They are holding NCAA tournament teams about 30 points below their season averages, and they are longer than us (it sounds absurd, but it's true). We're a vastly better offensive team, but Syracuse's defense at this point in the season is about as good as I've seen from anybody.

I would go that far. Per T-Rank, we are #1 in the country in defense over the last 10 games. Syracuse? #13.

[rsvman]

Can’t believe I have to root for Syracuse here. Not natural.

You don't have to if you don't want to. Both these teams look pretty bad today. If they play like this, we will beat either one.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Jim Spanarkel is just blind, period.

[Duke79UNLV77]

I don’t know if it hit him, but if the refs were right at the monitor with the announcers, it was totally inappropriate for the announcers to be stating their opinions.

[WHOneedsSOX]

I don’t know if it hit him, but if the refs were right at the monitor with the announcers, it was totally inappropriate for the announcers to be stating their opinions.

I agree. Thought it was odd they kept giving their opinions on the call while the ref was there. Anyways, seems like they got the right call.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

You don't have to if you don't want to. Both these teams look pretty bad today. If they play like this, we will beat either one.

Oh, if they play like this, we win by 30+. Wish I could get that guaranteed......so who is capable of playing much better? Probably MSU.

[Chard]

Love to see the faces of all those ESPN "experts" that picked MSU as champs.

(MSU still has life.)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Did MSU get two straight held balls?

[WHOneedsSOX]

Syracuse just trying to let Michigan State tie it.

Well yeah, sometimes the player reaction is the right call but when they react to every single call then they're bound to get one right.

[AGDukesky]

Love to see the faces of all those ESPN "experts" that picked MSU as champs.

Too soon

[rsvman]

Why is Syracuse even trying to advance the ball up the court? Just catch it and hold it!

[Troublemaker]

Love to see the faces of all those ESPN "experts" that picked MSU as champs.

How about we not jinx this :-)

[ChrisP]

Ugh, Cuse trying to screw this up! Just inbound it, make 1 FT and it's OVER!!!

[WHOneedsSOX]

Did Jackson foul out? Why isn't he in?

[Chard]

Too soon

I know. I know.

[Eternal Outlaw]

With MSU using last timeout, like the foul and not let a three to tie.

ETA: But I have no idea how good Syracuse is at FTs

[gocanes0506]

Battle has killed lessened their ability to win the last two possessions l. Instead of passing he tries to do it all himself and turned it over.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

If Mich St hits the first FT, should Cuse commit an intentional lane violation here?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Boy, Izzo is milking every dead ball.......extending the time

[WHOneedsSOX]

If Mich St hits the first FT, should Cuse commit an intentional lane violation here?

How many times can you do that? Would be hilarious if they kept missing and you kept getting a lane violation.

[uh_no]

If Mich St hits the first FT, should Cuse commit an intentional lane violation here?

as was discussed in another thread, it almost certainly would lead to a delay of game technical the second time they did it.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Bring on Syracuse. Let's hope the game isn't as ugly as today.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

as was discussed in another thread, it almost certainly would lead to a delay of game technical the second time they did it.

Interesting. I missed that discussion earlier. I guess that makes sense because otherwise I would think we would see that more.

[Chard]

How about we not jinx this :-)

Whew. I have my dignity!

Sorry, everyone. :)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Brian Zoubeck should've missed his free throw towards the corner like Cuse did.....might've saved Kyle Singler a big headache.

[TKG]

Battle of the Zones. Student versus pupil.

[rsvman]

I have to laugh.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The bracket broke in our favor!

[dukebluesincebirth]

Cuse!!

[dukelifer]

Bring on Syracuse. Let's hope the game isn't as ugly as today.

You do not want to play Cuse on the second day. Much better when time to prepare and are rested

[scottdude8]

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