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DaleDuke7
03-07-2018, 02:07 PM
I hope it’s ok to start a new thread. I want to talk more in depth about O’Connell, what he brings to Duke’s offense, and why I think he should average 15 mpg from here on out.

I don’t know if anybody else has noticed, but I think one of Alex’s greatest strengths on this team, is his ability to make entry passes into the post. He is excellent at it. He seems to know how to fake one way and get his defender to move, to create room for the pass, often times putting Carter, Bagley, and Bolden in great position to score. I think this will come in handy if/when we see our offense stagnate like it has at times recently, and as teams focus on our big guys.

Second, his shooting can be big for us. Alex has a nice stroke and is not afraid to take his shots. He can open up driving lanes for Duval and help spread the floor so that our bigs have room to maneuver. Compare this to Javin, who you can sag off of and clog the lane, and it is a world of difference offensively.

Third, he can provide some rest for the other guards at times. Yes, including Allen. Allen knows how to play tired but I think we would all agree that it’s better if you don’t have to. I think Duval has started to play a little more level-headed recently, and plugging O’Connell in for Allen for a few minutes would be a good thing.

Of course, there will be some drop-off on the defensive side of the ball, but not too much. I won’t lie, he can get beat off the dribble easily, and his man to man defense is not good, but we have good help defense now. With us switching to zone almost full-time, I think it’s less likely to happen. He also gets in passing lanes fairly well.

I think what he brings offensively outweighs the little bit of a drop-off we may have defensively, especially in those moments when our offense stagnates. Playing him consistently for 15-20 mpg will decrease the chance we go those 5,6,7 minute stretches in games where we don’t hit a FG or even score.

Maybe some of the stat-savvy guys on the board can help out my argument, or, possibly disprove it with +/-, offensive and defensive efficiency with Alex on the court, and so on.

Tell me what y’all think!

subzero02
03-07-2018, 02:14 PM
I noted his post entry passing ability a while ago in another thread and I think you are exactly right. It's a lost art form in today's game but AOC excels at it. With the talent that we have this year down low, making solid post entry passes is especially important.

cato
03-07-2018, 03:28 PM
K has apparently decided that this team’s fate will rest on defense. It seems that AOC is, relatively speaking, the odd man out on that end of the floor.

Lineups have been so fluid that this could change, but for now he is behind the Allen, Trent, DeLaurier, Duval rotation on the wings/top of the zone.

kAzE
03-07-2018, 03:55 PM
I agree with cato, Coach K has decided to make defense more of a focus, and going by our results since switching full time to zone, this is the right move. Alex O'Connell is certainly a better offensive player than guys like Javin DeLaurier and Jack White, but his effectiveness is also somewhat diminished by the switch to full time zone defense. We're now playing at a significantly slower pace (fewer possessions), which is probably the biggest reason why Alex has had a decline in playing time of late.

Alex should still be on the floor in late game free throw situations though. We better not have a repeat of that VaTech debacle in the postseason . . .

Kedsy
03-07-2018, 04:18 PM
Alex has exceeded all expectations this year. He hustles, his offensive rebounding is strong for a guard, and he shoots very well (52.4% from three!). But with the roster we have, 15 to 20 mpg seems a little crazy to me.

First of all, yes, I've seen Alex throw a few good post passes. But he certainly hasn't thrown enough of them for me to say that his post passes are "one of [his] greatest strengths on this team." In Alex's last 108 minutes on the floor, he had a total of four assists (0.74 assists per 40 minutes). He had four more in his 88 minutes before that (0.91 assists per 40). For the season, including the early cupcake games, he still only averages 2 assists per 40 minutes, and his assist percentage (7.8%) is essentially the exact same as Marques Bolden's (7.7%). In other words, he rarely passes, so suggesting he play for his passing skills seems odd to me (though, the I assume the reason he rarely passes is his role on the team is catch-and-shoot specialist, which he does really well).

I also think you're underselling how much he gives up on defense. It's way more than your characterization of "not too much." The difference between, for example, Javin and Alex on defense is in my opinion far more than their difference on offense, assuming they are each used properly on offense (i.e., Alex as a spot-up shooter and Javin as a baseline lurker). Though admittedly, if Javin spends his time on offense standing around the perimeter then Alex is probably just as much (maybe more) better on offense as he is worse on defense. But even then, in most situations this team needs the defense more than the offense.

You asked for plus/minus, etc., so I've listed various efficiency ratings for the top 8 players on the team. With the caveat that plus/minus is a very flawed stat for this kind of analysis (and defensive rating is probably even worse), Alex is 8th out of 8 in plus/minus and defensive rating, and 7th out of 8 (ahead of Trevon) in PER, box-plus-minus and win shares per 40.

The only efficiency stat at which he excels is offensive rating, because of his stellar shooting. Though I should note that, as a 4th or 5th option, Alex gets a lot of open shots -- I suspect if he played more (and/or became more of a focus for opposing defenses) his offensive efficiency would decrease. And since we have six other players with 122+ offensive ratings, I personally don't think we really need his offense very much, except perhaps in a situation where we're way behind and have to shoot ourselves back into the game by trading threes for twos.



Player +/- per 40 oRtg dRtg PER ws/40 bpm
Wendell Carter 19.3 127.2 92.8 29.1 0.247 14.0
Marvin Bagley 19.2 126.1 95.9 31.0 0.251 10.8
Grayson Allen 17.7 122.2 101.8 18.8 0.179 9.0
Gary Trent 16.7 125.8 102.8 16.8 0.166 7.3
Trevon Duval 14.8 106.1 102.4 14.5 0.119 3.9
Javin DeLaurier 11.2 126.2 92.9 19.6 0.184 11.5
Marques Bolden 10.5 123.4 95.7 19.7 0.168 9.7
Alex O'Connell 7.6 131.9 104.5 16.4 0.155 7.0


I assume Alex's contributions will grow with each year in the program. By his junior and senior seasons, I hope for and expect big things. But with the roster we have this year, I think Alex in a 5 to 10 mpg shooter-off-the-bench role is probably best. Though based on Coach K's recent rotation decisions, I think we're more likely to see Alex in a 3 to 5 minute role going forward.

Hingeknocker
03-07-2018, 04:23 PM
Not only does he have nice entry passing skills, I've noticed that his passing in general is very crisp. When he's passing along the perimeter, he really fires the passes over to the next guy, but they're also catchable passes. This makes a huge difference in exploiting the minor gaps in the defense chasing passes around.

He's a good player, and I'm excited to see his growth.

Saratoga2
03-07-2018, 04:25 PM
With the switch to zone defense, I think AOC's length and mobility actually help the zone plus his handle and court awareness is better than Javin's. He has gotten a steal here and there and he rebounds well due to his awareness and speed. Having him in the game facing teams with smaller and quicker wings makes some sense and he would give a rest to Grayson and Gary. Fifteen minutes a game seems reasonable although that could and should be modified depending on his effectiveness.

JNort
03-07-2018, 04:30 PM
No thanks. Love the kid and he has surpassed all expectations but it's way to late in the year to experiment with lineups. Go with what's got us here to finish and promote him next season.

cato
03-07-2018, 04:31 PM
With the switch to zone defense, I think AOC's length and mobility actually help the zone plus his handle and court awareness is better than Javin's. He has gotten a steal here and there and he rebounds well due to his awareness and speed. Having him in the game facing teams with smaller and quicker wings makes some sense and he would give a rest to Grayson and Gary. Fifteen minutes a game seems reasonable although that could and should be modified depending on his effectiveness.

I recall Coach K specifically praising his length and its value to the zone. And yet, as the defense has improved, Alex’s role has diminished. My conclusion is that the staff does not think he is a better option on D than those ahead of him.

Kedsy
03-07-2018, 04:33 PM
With the switch to zone defense, I think AOC's length and mobility actually help the zone plus his handle and court awareness is better than Javin's.

Alex's length and mobility are both much worse than Javin's. On defense, I think his court awareness is, as well.


He has gotten a steal here and there and he rebounds well due to his awareness and speed.

If steals and defensive rebounds are what you're after, Javin is a far preferable option than Alex.

Defensive rebounding percentage: Javin 18.9%; Alex 8.3%

Steal percentage: Javin 3.1% (leads team); Alex 1.3%


Having him in the game facing teams with smaller and quicker wings makes some sense...

This might be true if Alex was quicker than Javin. That hasn't been my observation.

hallcity
03-07-2018, 04:51 PM
You know, in 2015, a player who hadn't played that much gave Duke what it needed to win the national championship game. Yes, Alex is a different player than Grayson and history doesn't repeat itself but, as Mark Twain said, it does rhyme. Alex seems like Grayson in being a gamer, someone who doesn't tighten up when the stakes are high. He looked confident in taking 3 point shots against UNC and made one when others couldn't. You never know. He could be the difference in some tournament game this year.

COYS
03-07-2018, 04:59 PM
You know, in 2015, a player who hadn't played that much gave Duke what it needed to win the national championship game. Yes, Alex is a different player than Grayson and history doesn't repeat itself but, as Mark Twain said, it does rhyme. Alex seems like Grayson in being a gamer, someone who doesn't tighten up when the stakes are high. He looked confident in taking 3 point shots against UNC and made one when others couldn't. You never know. He could be the difference in some tournament game this year.

You can add Andre in 2010 to that list. His 3’s against Baylor in the E8 were absolutely key. I think an Andre-like moment is more likely than a Grayson moment, but you never know.

DaleDuke7
03-07-2018, 05:01 PM
Alex has exceeded all expectations this year. He hustles, his offensive rebounding is strong for a guard, and he shoots very well (52.4% from three!). But with the roster we have, 15 to 20 mpg seems a little crazy to me.

First of all, yes, I've seen Alex throw a few good post passes. But he certainly hasn't thrown enough of them for me to say that his post passes are "one of [his] greatest strengths on this team." In Alex's last 108 minutes on the floor, he had a total of four assists (0.74 assists per 40 minutes). He had four more in his 88 minutes before that (0.91 assists per 40). For the season, including the early cupcake games, he still only averages 2 assists per 40 minutes, and his assist percentage (7.8%) is essentially the exact same as Marques Bolden's (7.7%). In other words, he rarely passes, so suggesting he play for his passing skills seems odd to me (though, the I assume the reason he rarely passes is his role on the team is catch-and-shoot specialist, which he does really well).

I also think you're underselling how much he gives up on defense. It's way more than your characterization of "not too much." The difference between, for example, Javin and Alex on defense is in my opinion far more than their difference on offense, assuming they are each used properly on offense (i.e., Alex as a spot-up shooter and Javin as a baseline lurker). Though admittedly, if Javin spends his time on offense standing around the perimeter then Alex is probably just as much (maybe more) better on offense as he is worse on defense. But even then, in most situations this team needs the defense more than the offense.

You asked for plus/minus, etc., so I've listed various efficiency ratings for the top 8 players on the team. With the caveat that plus/minus is a very flawed stat for this kind of analysis (and defensive rating is probably even worse), Alex is 8th out of 8 in plus/minus and defensive rating, and 7th out of 8 (ahead of Trevon) in PER, box-plus-minus and win shares per 40.

The only efficiency stat at which he excels is offensive rating, because of his stellar shooting. Though I should note that, as a 4th or 5th option, Alex gets a lot of open shots -- I suspect if he played more (and/or became more of a focus for opposing defenses) his offensive efficiency would decrease. And since we have six other players with 122+ offensive ratings, I personally don't think we really need his offense very much, except perhaps in a situation where we're way behind and have to shoot ourselves back into the game by trading threes for twos.



Player +/- per 40 oRtg dRtg PER ws/40 bpm
Wendell Carter 19.3 127.2 92.8 29.1 0.247 14.0
Marvin Bagley 19.2 126.1 95.9 31.0 0.251 10.8
Grayson Allen 17.7 122.2 101.8 18.8 0.179 9.0
Gary Trent 16.7 125.8 102.8 16.8 0.166 7.3
Trevon Duval 14.8 106.1 102.4 14.5 0.119 3.9
Javin DeLaurier 11.2 126.2 92.9 19.6 0.184 11.5
Marques Bolden 10.5 123.4 95.7 19.7 0.168 9.7
Alex O'Connell 7.6 131.9 104.5 16.4 0.155 7.0


I assume Alex's contributions will grow with each year in the program. By his junior and senior seasons, I hope for and expect big things. But with the roster we have this year, I think Alex in a 5 to 10 mpg shooter-off-the-bench role is probably best. Though based on Coach K's recent rotation decisions, I think we're more likely to see Alex in a 3 to 5 minute role going forward.

Excellent assessment and thanks for the stats, but I wonder if the +\- is a little skewed based off of how many of Alex’s minutes are truly meaningful minutes. I know, I’m the one that asked for them, and the stats may very well back up your argument, I just wonder. You said +/- is a flawed stat for this analysis, so that may explain it. Is there another stat besides what you already posted that may be better? As far as the assists go, I’m not advocating for Alex to be any type of playmaker whatsoever. I’m only specifically alluding to his ability to pass into the post and let our bigs go to work. I think when our shooting is off, we need and look to get the ball inside for a bucket, but we have to get it there first. Alex could be very valuable in that aspect, especially as we face tougher teams in the tourney and they key in on our bigs. I still think that, coupled with his ability to shoot and space the floor, make up for the loss in defense, only when we’re in zone.

DaleDuke7
03-07-2018, 05:07 PM
Alex's length and mobility are both much worse than Javin's. On defense, I think his court awareness is, as well.



If steals and defensive rebounds are what you're after, Javin is a far preferable option than Alex.

Defensive rebounding percentage: Javin 18.9%; Alex 8.3%

Steal percentage: Javin 3.1% (leads team); Alex 1.3%



This might be true if Alex was quicker than Javin. That hasn't been my observation.

Really impressed with Javin’s stats here. I don’t think I’m overselling Alex, but perhaps I did undersell Javin a little. I think both are valuable, it really is just a question of how much drop-off on defense Alex is compared to Javin, in the zone.

Troublemaker
03-07-2018, 05:09 PM
Well, he did play 14 minutes against UNC. Going forward, he might very well play 10-12 mpg, which I would support. In general, I'd like to keep 3 perimeter players on the court as much as possible. 15-20 mpg is unlikely given that Grayson is going to play about 40 mpg.

KandG
03-07-2018, 05:15 PM
I recall Coach K specifically praising his length and its value to the zone. And yet, as the defense has improved, Alex’s role has diminished. My conclusion is that the staff does not think he is a better option on D than those ahead of him.

Interestingly, it appeared Coach K considered Alex a better option at the top of the zone than Duval when we first started tinkering with it early in the season...Alex was better at making himself "bigger" to deflect passes and didn't gamble (or occasionally space out) as much as Trevon did.

Since committing to the zone more fully though, it's been Javin and/or Duval. Alex isn't as good recovering back to a man or a spot, and looks like our worst perimeter defender in scramble situations and on closeouts. (Also: Trevon is better when we press, which gives our zone and our overall D more bite).

A lot of Alex's issues come down to inexperience and not being quite as athletic as the others, and I'm sure he'll continue to improve as a sophomore and beyond. But for now, I think the coaching staff seem him as an option only for spot minutes early in games, and maybe a few more minutes when starters are in foul trouble or need a brief moment of rest.

kAzE
03-07-2018, 05:17 PM
Well, he did play 14 minutes against UNC. Going forward, he might very well play 10-12 mpg, which I would support. In general, I'd like to keep 3 perimeter players on the court as much as possible. 15-20 mpg is unlikely given that Grayson is going to play about 40 mpg.

I think that was more a function of first half foul trouble. I don't think he played nearly as much in the 2nd half.

Devilwin
03-07-2018, 05:25 PM
No thanks. Love the kid and he has surpassed all expectations but it's way to late in the year to experiment with lineups. Go with what's got us here to finish and promote him next season.

Seems like a few years ago another kid came to life in the Final 4 and helped us win a title..Grayson somebody, right?..

subzero02
03-07-2018, 07:02 PM
Seems like a few years ago another kid came to life in the Final 4 and helped us win a title..Grayson somebody, right?..

what a wild trip 2015 was...

Saratoga2
03-07-2018, 09:31 PM
Alex's length and mobility are both much worse than Javin's. On defense, I think his court awareness is, as well.



If steals and defensive rebounds are what you're after, Javin is a far preferable option than Alex.

Defensive rebounding percentage: Javin 18.9%; Alex 8.3%

Steal percentage: Javin 3.1% (leads team); Alex 1.3%



This might be true if Alex was quicker than Javin. That hasn't been my observation.

Javin also fouls at a high rate.

HereBeforeCoachK
03-07-2018, 09:33 PM
what a wild trip 2015 was...

..especially given the end of the 2014 season....

JNort
03-07-2018, 09:39 PM
Seems like a few years ago another kid came to life in the Final 4 and helped us win a title..Grayson somebody, right?..

Only because of foul trouble.

jv001
03-07-2018, 09:42 PM
Only because of foul trouble.

He did score 27 points against Wake Forest before the big dance. Plus Rasheed was kicked off the team and Grayson stepped up to take some of his minutes. Thank God for Grayson. GoDuke!

JNort
03-07-2018, 10:26 PM
He did score 27 points against Wake Forest before the big dance. Plus Rasheed was kicked off the team and Grayson stepped up to take some of his minutes. Thank God for Grayson. GoDuke!

Yeah he would have played a lot more if 3 of our 4 best guys weren't on the perimeter