Phase VI: The Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament

[Bob Green]

Duke enters the ACC Tournament as the #2 Seed with a 25 - 6 record and coming off a 74 - 64 thrashing of Carolina! The team has won six of seven games since experiencing a late January, early February slump which saw them drop three of four games. With the exception of a head scratching loss in Blacksburg, the team responded positively to mid-season adversity.

Health - Is the team healthy? Bagley is back after missing four games with a sprained knee; Bolden has a broken nose; Allen has been somewhat bothered by a sore wrist - us fans don't really know how much he has been bothered; DeLaurier missed significant action during the season due to a tweaked hamstring. Are these issues in the rear view mirror? Team health appears to be solid heading into the post season.

Zone D with 3/4 Court Press - the switch to playing a 2-3 zone with a sprinkling of 3/4 court press is this year's masterful move by Coach K. Team defensive ranking has skyrocketed over the past few weeks and is now a Top 10 defense per the stats geek sites. Coach K is the Master at making in season adjustments and it appears he has successfully tweaked the 2018 Duke Blue Devils by going full time zone.

The 1-2-2 3/4 court press disrupts the opponent's offensive flow by eating valuable seconds off the 30 second shot clock. By the time the ball is in the frontcourt, and the offense composes itself, there are only 18 or so seconds left to run the offense and attack the zone. The purpose of the press isn't to create turnovers, that's gravy when it happens, the purpose of the press is to force the opponent out of their comfort zone. It is to make teams hurry in the half court.

Offensive Flow - Which offense shows up? The one which exploded for 49 points outscoring Carolina by 20 points, in the 2nd half, with Grayson Allen and Marvin Bagley demonstrating they can co-exist? Or the one which struggled to close out Virginia Tech in the season's penultimate contest? If the "2nd half against Carolina" offense shows up, the sky is the limit.

The wild card seems to be Trevon Duval. When he plays under control and distributes the basketball, the team clicks. Duval definitely can attack the rim but his real value to the team is dishing assists to Bagley and Wendell Carter in the low post or kicking the ball to open shooters.

Match-ups - On paper, the path to the Championships will be tough one. Duke will start with the winner of Pittsburgh/Notre Dame, Virginia Tech. The game between Notre Dame and Virginia Tech (yes, I am dismissing Pitt) should be a donnybrook. Barring upsets, the rubber match with North Carolina could be the semi-final game with a rematch against Virginia in the finals.

I say bring on the best! A rubber match against North Carolina would be fantastic from my perspective, but I realize I am in the minority amongst Duke fans who will mostly be rooting for Carolina to lose their first game on Wednesday. As for Virginia in the finals, I welcome the opportunity to get another crack at the Cavaliers.

But first things first and that will be the game against the winner of Notre Dame/Virginia Tech. Tech's athleticism and physical style bothered us down the stretch in Blacksburg and Notre Dame with Bonzie Colson and Matt Ferrell healthy is a tough team...a Top 10 team. Thursday evening is going to be a challenge. My expectation is Notre Dame will beat Virginia Tech, which means Duke will face an opponent playing their third game in three days.

It is time to win the ACC Championship! It is time to make a statement that the team is greater than the sum of the very talented individual parts. This team has struggled at times so adjustments have been made; March has arrived and the Duke Blue Devils are ready to show their Championship Spirit.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Could not agree more, especially with your comments on the 3/4 zone defense, and on Trevon being the wild card to offensive flow. I think we've all struggled with trying to form an opinion on how this very talented team should play. First team to 100 and not worry about D? Well, we can win some games that way. Pack the zone in and walk it up, first team to 65? We won a few like that too. With a lot of talent and size, there are many ways Duke can win.

But I don't think anyone thought either of those were the answer.

Last night, I think I got comfortable with how they play best: 3/4 zone trap on D and Duval as the wildcard, playing well at point, or at least sharing the point, penetrating and dishing.

[Kedsy]

Way to hit all the high spots, Mr. Green.

One interesting question regarding our first round matchup: would we rather face a team who just saw our zone the week before, or a team that might be better but has never seen our zone (except on tape, of course)?

One possible reason Notre Dame has owned us in recent years is that Mike Bray knows our M2M defense very well and knows how to attack it, which is problematic when we aren't playing it at the highest level (like the past several seasons). Will he have any real idea how to attack our zone? It potentially shifts one of his biggest advantages against us to a weakness, or at least not an advantage any more.

[sagegrouse]

My cuff notes come up with the following stats for Duke in the last seven games (since the 1st UNC match):

Average points allowed are 58. In the three-point, shot-clock era? Wow!

Margin of victory is 14, with Duke averaging 72 points per game.

[Troublemaker]

Way to hit all the high spots, Mr. Green.

One interesting question regarding our first round matchup: would we rather face a team who just saw our zone the week before, or a team that might be better but has never seen our zone (except on tape, of course)?

One possible reason Notre Dame has owned us in recent years is that Mike Bray knows our M2M defense very well and knows how to attack it, which is problematic when we aren't playing it at the highest level (like the past several seasons). Will he have any real idea how to attack our zone? It potentially shifts one of his biggest advantages against us to a weakness, or at least not an advantage any more.

We want to play VaTech, which is RPI #50 instead of ND, which is RPI #66. At least the Hokies might end up being a Q1 win. I feel like playing ND is all downside, no upside.

Also, VaTech didn't really show any improvement going against the zone for a second time, and I don't expect a third time to help them. I just flat out think we have a very good to great zone, and several looks at it won't matter. I would like to see Duke's offense tested against VaTech's pack-it-in-to-the-extreme scheme to see if we've made any progress. That was how the Hokies beat us, of course. Forcing 18 turnovers out of that scheme.

Finally, ND "owning" Duke is a bit harsh. They have a 5-4 record against us, and we've won the past three. And they did get to see the zone for a long stretch in the second half in the meeting in Cameron this season. And in 2016, when ND beat us in the ACCT, they had to go through our zone to do so. This season's zone is a different animal, though, of course.

Nice Phase post, Bob.

[ncexnyc]

Our team smoked the Hokies at CIS and lost by 1 on their court. On a neutral site I like our chances quite a bit and believe they won't get away with manhandling our bigs like they did last game.

I'd much rather face VT, as I believe Bonzie is the perfect zone buster at the free throw line stripe. A heck of a lot better than Pinson, because Bonzie can actually shoot and better than Maye, because he won't be intimidated by our frontcourt.

[MChambers]

Our team smoked the Hokies at CIS and lost by 1 on their court. On a neutral site I like our chances quite a bit and believe they won't get away with manhandling our bigs like they did last game.

I'd much rather face VT, as I believe Bonzie is the perfect zone buster at the free throw line stripe. A heck of a lot better than Pinson, because Bonzie can actually shoot and better than Maye, because he won't be intimidated by our frontcourt.

ND with Colson and Farrell is really tough. I think our best hope against Colson would be to make him play a lot of defense and maybe get him in foul trouble or exhaust him.

[CDu]

ND with Colson and Farrell is really tough. I think our best hope against Colson would be to make him play a lot of defense and maybe get him in foul trouble or exhaust him.

Worth noting it would be Notre Dame's third game in three days if they were to face us. For a team that plays a VERY short rotation, that would be a big concern.

[budwom]

adding to Mr. Bob Green's fine post, I would say that having rewatched the last few minutes multiple times, unc rarely did compose themselves, even after they used a bunch of clock to get into the frontcourt.

Numerous times heel shooters (Maye foremost among them) were forced to shoot quicker than they wanted to, it seemed like about half their passes were being deflected...they were clearly unnerved.

[Neals384]

Key issue for this phase - what's the starting lineup? I really don't see DeLaurier starting as a good idea at all. Let him bring energy off the bench in short spurts. Let's return to the 2-big lineup with Duval that has carried us most of the season.

[Neals384]

Need Bagley and/or Carter in the game at all times. We were -7 vs. UNC with both on the bench at the same time. Carter is much better at avoiding cheap fouls than earlier in the season, but keeping those 2 out of foul trouble is still key.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Key issue for this phase - what's the starting lineup? I really don't see DeLaurier starting as a good idea at all. Let him bring energy off the bench in short spurts. Let's return to the 2-big lineup with Duval that has carried us most of the season.

....especially the last 17 minutes Saturday

[COYS]

Offensive Flow - Which offense shows up? The one which exploded for 49 points outscoring Carolina by 20 points, in the 2nd half, with Grayson Allen and Marvin Bagley demonstrating they can co-exist? Or the one which struggled to close out Virginia Tech in the season's penultimate contest? If the "2nd half against Carolina" offense shows up, the sky is the limit.

The wild card seems to be Trevon Duval. When he plays under control and distributes the basketball, the team clicks. Duval definitely can attack the rim but his real value to the team is dishing assists to Bagley and Wendell Carter in the low post or kicking the ball to open shooters.



Excellent Phase post, Bob. One thing that changed in the second half against UNC is that we were able to push the pace on offense a little bit more while simultaneously slowing the game down on defense. The team has evolved to the point that our defense is best suited to slow the game down while our offense can better take advantage of Trevon's speed and Marvin and Wendell's mobility when we're able to push the pace. I completely understand why Coach K made the change and moved Grayson to the point guard spot on offense, but there is also no doubt that this move made our transition game much less potent. I would love to see if the team can find the balance they found in the second half against UNC when our offense was in attack mode and moving downhill as much as possible while our defense was focused on grinding out every possession.

Even as well as we played against UNC, i actually thought we missed a few opportunities to attack more quickly on offense. There were two times that Marvin sprinted down the court, beat all of UNC's bigs, and won a mismatch in the post that we didn't take advantage of because we were walking the ball up. Now, I admit that I'm picking nits at this point. I was very happy to see Trevon play within himself and not force things. However, I still think there is another, slightly higher gear that we can reach on offense if we attack the opposing defense quickly (while staying under control). If Trevon can get our offense moving quickly while valuing the ball, we will wear teams down by forcing them to grind it out when they have the ball and then sprint back every time we regain possession.

[Acymetric]

Excellent Phase post, Bob. One thing that changed in the second half against UNC is that we were able to push the pace on offense a little bit more while simultaneously slowing the game down on defense. The team has evolved to the point that our defense is best suited to slow the game down while our offense can better take advantage of Trevon's speed and Marvin and Wendell's mobility when we're able to push the pace. I completely understand why Coach K made the change and moved Grayson to the point guard spot on offense, but there is also no doubt that this move made our transition game much less potent. I would love to see if the team can find the balance they found in the second half against UNC when our offense was in attack mode and moving downhill as much as possible while our defense was focused on grinding out every possession.

Even as well as we played against UNC, i actually thought we missed a few opportunities to attack more quickly on offense. There were two times that Marvin sprinted down the court, beat all of UNC's bigs, and won a mismatch in the post that we didn't take advantage of because we were walking the ball up. Now, I admit that I'm picking nits at this point. I was very happy to see Trevon play within himself and not force things. However, I still think there is another, slightly higher gear that we can reach on offense if we attack the opposing defense quickly (while staying under control). If Trevon can get our offense moving quickly while valuing the ball, we will wear teams down by forcing them to grind it out when they have the ball and then sprint back every time we regain possession.

Grayson has actually shown himself to be the superior outlet passer on the break (even before our shift in strategy to keep the ball in his hands), so I'm not sure that is entirely true. Duval is clearly a better candidate for taking the ball coast to coast on the break, but he has not shown himself to be a particularly consistent finisher in that context.

[COYS]

Grayson has actually shown himself to be the superior outlet passer on the break (even before our shift in strategy to keep the ball in his hands), so I'm not sure that is entirely true. Duval is clearly a better candidate for taking the ball coast to coast on the break, but he has not shown himself to be a particularly consistent finisher in that context.

I'm not necessarily talking about our guards taking the ball all the way to the hoop. I'm talking about keeping the tempo high so as to catch defenses before they're fully set. Basically, I'm talking about secondary break opportunities. Grayson does not have the same ability to attack a retreating defense that Trevon has. I wish I had deleted the game from my DVR because I would go back and find the one or two moments in the game against UNC in the second half in which Trevon pushed the tempo while UNC players were jogging back on defense with their backs turned towards him. I don't think he scored on any of those occasions but he notched assists. Trevon has the extra speed to make that happen while Grayson doesn't quite have that dimension to his game. I think Trevon can attack retreating defenses more consistently than Grayson and it would allow us to take advantage of the times that Marvin is able to beat all the opposing bigs down the court and other favorable mismatches that occur when a defense has not had time to set itself. Our offense is already really, really good. But if Trevon is able to play in attack mode while staying under control, I think we can manufacture a few more easy buckets thanks to his speed and the ability of Marvin and Wendell to get down the floor.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Grayson has actually shown himself to be the superior outlet passer on the break (even before our shift in strategy to keep the ball in his hands), so I'm not sure that is entirely true. Duval is clearly a better candidate for taking the ball coast to coast on the break, but he has not shown himself to be a particularly consistent finisher in that context.

I would also say Grayson is much better on the long alley oop passes - 45 feet +.....while Trevon seems to be better at driving and dishing an oop from the lane area....

[Kedsy]

I'm not necessarily talking about our guards taking the ball all the way to the hoop. I'm talking about keeping the tempo high so as to catch defenses before they're fully set. Basically, I'm talking about secondary break opportunities. Grayson does not have the same ability to attack a retreating defense that Trevon has. I wish I had deleted the game from my DVR because I would go back and find the one or two moments in the game against UNC in the second half in which Trevon pushed the tempo while UNC players were jogging back on defense with their backs turned towards him. I don't think he scored on any of those occasions but he notched assists. Trevon has the extra speed to make that happen while Grayson doesn't quite have that dimension to his game. I think Trevon can attack retreating defenses more consistently than Grayson and it would allow us to take advantage of the times that Marvin is able to beat all the opposing bigs down the court and other favorable mismatches that occur when a defense has not had time to set itself. Our offense is already really, really good. But if Trevon is able to play in attack mode while staying under control, I think we can manufacture a few more easy buckets thanks to his speed and the ability of Marvin and Wendell to get down the floor.

Interestingly enough, our tempo wasn't any higher in the second half against UNC. In fact it was a little bit slower (35.65 possessions in first half; 33.85 possessions in second half). We also had 9 turnovers in the second half, compared to 5 in the first half (and our offensive rebounding was even, 8 in each half). We just shot a lot better in the second half (first half: 10% on threes; 41% on twos; 29% on FTs; second half: 53% on threes; 67% on twos; 83% on FTs). Now, a lot of those second half twos were Bagley dunks off of nifty Duval passes, but that doesn't explain anywhere close to all of it.

That said, I think your idea of wearing out our opponents by going fast on offense and slow on defense is spot on. Any extra few easy transition baskets is exactly what this team needs to maintain an elite offense (well, that and not shooting 10%/41%/29%).

EDIT: I'm not sure how to measure the "quality" of our shots, which my eyes told me was generally better in the second half. I'd also note that in the first half we only had 3 assists (33.3% of baskets assisted), while in the second half we had 13 assists (72.2% of baskets assisted). Six of those 13 second-half assists were from Trevon.

[MarkD83]

Duke enters the ACC Tournament as the #2 Seed with a 25 - 6 record and coming off a 74 - 64 thrashing of Carolina! The team has won six of seven games since experiencing a late January, early February slump which saw them drop three of four games. With the exception of a head scratching loss in Blacksburg, the team responded positively to mid-season adversity.

.......

It is time to win the ACC Championship! It is time to make a statement that the team is greater than the sum of the very talented individual parts. This team has struggled at times so adjustments have been made; March has arrived and the Duke Blue Devils are ready to show their Championship Spirit.

The phase analyses are always fun to read. However, we often don't do an end of phase assessment to see how the team has progressed. So here are a few insights and this includes the entire regular season.

Let's start with the assumption that Coach K is always gearing up to prepare the team for a strong showing in the tournaments. That means he of course wants to win all of the games but the out of conference games before the ACC are very crucial. This team won all of those games and that is why they are in the running for a #1 seed. It is also perhaps the reason that Coach K does not play his bench a lot in these early season games. This also means we complain a lot about his lack of using the bench.

In the ACC games I believe Coach K experiments a lot...see if the team can play man-to-man even though he knows they may struggle with ball screens...start to use a zone occasionally and then settle on what works. I also believe that may have been part of getting the ball to Trevon at the end of the VT game. Trevon gets fouled and now Coach K has put Trevon in the position to win the game. Yes we all went ballistic because we lost but that may have been Coach K testing something to see what buttons he could push in the tournaments.

Even in the St. Johns game there could have been more things Coach K could have done to win the game but perhaps he was trying to see who he could rely on to pull the team together.

I know Coach K wants to win every game but perhaps some of the things we complain about during the regular season are ways to get the team ready for March.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Let's start with the assumption that Coach K is always gearing up to prepare the team for a strong showing in the tournaments. That means he of course wants to win all of the games but the out of conference games before the ACC are very crucial. This team won all of those games and that is why they are in the running for a #1 seed. It is also perhaps the reason that Coach K does not play his bench a lot in these early season games. This also means we complain a lot about his lack of using the bench.

In the ACC games I believe Coach K experiments a lot...see if the team can play man-to-man even though he knows they may struggle with ball screens...start to use a zone occasionally and then settle on what works. I also believe that may have been part of getting the ball to Trevon at the end of the VT game. Trevon gets fouled and now Coach K has put Trevon in the position to win the game. Yes we all went ballistic because we lost but that may have been Coach K testing something to see what buttons he could push in the tournaments.


I know Coach K wants to win every game but perhaps some of the things we complain about during the regular season are ways to get the team ready for March.


That is fascinating theory, and if it is correct, my observation would be that this is a shift for K. As he was building the program, in the 80s, and into the 90s, I think there was more emphasis on all games, because Duke was not really established yet, as a power. In certain seasons, it appears the team peaked early or maybe was a little more tired at NCAA time than some others. At least to my eye....

I love love love the 86 team, but man, they played so hard every game, won 37 of them, and seemed to not have the legs down the stretch against a Louisville team Duke was better than. The 92 team seemed to peak in December, stayed number one all season, but had a much rougher run through the NCAAT than the 91 team. That 92 team simply was so much better than anyone else they won the whole thing anyway.

[rsvman]

I actually think there is some wisdom in starting DeLaurier and continuing to bring Duval off the bench. I think it is awesome when he is in the game in the second half, fully engaged, not tired, and with no foul trouble.

I think match-ups should be the determining factor of whether Duval starts or comes off the bench. I've been a fan of Duval all season long. I think we need him to be at his best to go far in the tournaments. But that doesn't necessarily mean that he has to start.

[COYS]

Interestingly enough, our tempo wasn't any higher in the second half against UNC. In fact it was a little bit slower (35.65 possessions in first half; 33.85 possessions in second half). We also had 9 turnovers in the second half, compared to 5 in the first half (and our offensive rebounding was even, 8 in each half). We just shot a lot better in the second half (first half: 10% on threes; 41% on twos; 29% on FTs; second half: 53% on threes; 67% on twos; 83% on FTs). Now, a lot of those second half twos were Bagley dunks off of nifty Duval passes, but that doesn't explain anywhere close to all of it.

That said, I think your idea of wearing out our opponents by going fast on offense and slow on defense is spot on. Any extra few easy transition baskets is exactly what this team needs to maintain an elite offense (well, that and not shooting 10%/41%/29%).

EDIT: I'm not sure how to measure the "quality" of our shots, which my eyes told me was generally better in the second half. I'd also note that in the first half we only had 3 assists (33.3% of baskets assisted), while in the second half we had 13 assists (72.2% of baskets assisted). Six of those 13 second-half assists were from Trevon.

I actually noticed that our overall tempo was slower in the second half, but I don't think that's surprising because 1) we broke out our 3/4 court press to slow UNC down, and 2) we were winning in the final three minutes which meant we intentionally used more clock on a number of our possessions to shorten the game. Also, Roy and UNC mercifully stopped fouling when it was obvious the game was out of hand instead of adding a lot of extra possessions onto the last minute of the game.

I'm not even advocating that we try to score quickly on every possession. However, I think it is worth it to have Trevon move the ball up the floor quickly when he gets the ball in case the opportunity arises for a quick-hitting entry pass, a drive to the hoop, or a kick out to a wide open Grayson or Gary. As you and I have both mentioned, relentlessly running down hill on offense can wear a defense down, even if it doesn't result in a scoring opportunity but a handful of times per game. At the very least, it will put our team in position to take advantage of the occasional mental lapse by our opponents. It also maximizes Trevon's best skill (his speed and passing ability) while reducing his biggest weakness (his lack of shooting ability in the half-court).

Kedsy, your observation that there is not a great stat to quantify shot quality is something I'd love to see in basketball. Soccer, a sport notorious for its slow adoption of advanced statistics, now has Expected Goals, which measures the quality of a chance on goal by accounting for the type of chance (foot, header, etc.), the distance from the goal, the angle on goal, and the location of the defense. I'd love to see an "Expected Points" stat for various shots. I know that there are better ways to calculate this in the NBA thanks to Sports VU (and teams probably have their own proprietary methods that they do not reveal to the public), but it would be cool to see the same stat for college. It would help us fans differentiate between a game in which we got good looks but just didn't make the shots versus a game in which we were well defended.

[COYS]

I think match-ups should be the determining factor of whether Duval starts or comes off the bench. I've been a fan of Duval all season long. I think we need him to be at his best to go far in the tournaments. But that doesn't necessarily mean that he has to start.

Coach K has never been one to determine a starting lineup based on match-ups. I'm not sure if we'll see Trevon start or come off the bench just yet, but I'd be surprised if Coach changes the starting lineup based on the opponent. Otherwise, I totally agree that we need Trevon to have success in the ACCT and NCAAT and it really doesn't matter much if he starts or comes off the bench as long as he's playing well.

[Lar77]

Way to hit all the high spots, Mr. Green.

One interesting question regarding our first round matchup: would we rather face a team who just saw our zone the week before, or a team that might be better but has never seen our zone (except on tape, of course)?

One possible reason Notre Dame has owned us in recent years is that Mike Bray knows our M2M defense very well and knows how to attack it, which is problematic when we aren't playing it at the highest level (like the past several seasons). Will he have any real idea how to attack our zone? It potentially shifts one of his biggest advantages against us to a weakness, or at least not an advantage any more.

Bonzie is a big reason for our recent record against ND. It seems he always brings it up a notch against us. But he also got tired against UVA, so that may help us. Glad he's back, because ND is really good with him, and maybe the selection committee will recognize that.

We should beat VT if they get to the quarters.

Our defense continues to improve and maybe we have our offense coming back (1st half on Saturday was just strange, but the FTs might have pointed to a cause)

[kAzE]

I actually think there is some wisdom in starting DeLaurier and continuing to bring Duval off the bench. I think it is awesome when he is in the game in the second half, fully engaged, not tired, and with no foul trouble.

I think match-ups should be the determining factor of whether Duval starts or comes off the bench. I've been a fan of Duval all season long. I think we need him to be at his best to go far in the tournaments. But that doesn't necessarily mean that he has to start.

I think Trevon should start. Nothing against Javin, but he's very much playing out of position as the small forward. I don't even really think it's totally his fault that our offense was terrible in the first half. That had more to do with bad ball movement and Gary/Grayson not hitting shots.

However, our offense is just much better with Trevon in the lineup. Because of his speed and quickness, he's the only guy on the team capable of consistently getting in the paint without any help from ball screens. When his decision making is good, we can be dominant. As long as he's focused mentally, the lineup we closed out the UNC game with (our starting lineup for the majority of the season) is our best one.

[UrinalCake]

I know it makes it harder on the team, but being in the late session sure does make it easier for us fans to watch. No more sneaking a stream onto my work computer and hoping I don’t get caught 8-)

[ElSid]

I think Trevon should start. Nothing against Javin, but he's very much playing out of position as the small forward. I don't even really think it's totally his fault that our offense was terrible in the first half. That had more to do with bad ball movement and Gary/Grayson not hitting shots.

However, our offense is just much better with Trevon in the lineup. Because of his speed and quickness, he's the only guy on the team capable of consistently getting in the paint without any help from ball screens. When his decision making is good, we can be dominant. As long as he's focused mentally, the lineup we closed out the UNC game with (our starting lineup for the majority of the season) is our best one.

May be a case of what he's more comfortable with and where he thrives. Trevon has been providing a tremendous spark off the bench where he has a couple specific roles. Push the ball in transition and be a pest at the top or high side of the zone. He does very well with those two tasks. He may not do as well with other offensive goals, like making good entry passes.

Javin is good for one or two ridiculous defensive plays or rebounds before subbing out for Duval, who then changes the complexion of the team considerably. You could also go with O'Connell who provides more offensive spacing but is a huge drop off on defense.

We're not quite talking NBA level where having an excellent 6th man is so important because he's playing against a team's second unit, but I do think Duval puts pressure on opponents more as a reserve than as a starter, where he appears to be pressing and making bad decisions early. There's often a cracking of the ice with Trevon, hitting a three or a layup, where he starts to see the court better and feel a little more confidence. I get the sense right out of the tip, he's too tight.

So I like him on the bench to start. Maybe that's just recency bias, as it's been working really well for everyone.

[Saratoga2]

I think Trevon should start. Nothing against Javin, but he's very much playing out of position as the small forward. I don't even really think it's totally his fault that our offense was terrible in the first half. That had more to do with bad ball movement and Gary/Grayson not hitting shots.

However, our offense is just much better with Trevon in the lineup. Because of his speed and quickness, he's the only guy on the team capable of consistently getting in the paint without any help from ball screens. When his decision making is good, we can be dominant. As long as he's focused mentally, the lineup we closed out the UNC game with (our starting lineup for the majority of the season) is our best one.

I thought Grayson played poorly in the offensive role of primary playmaker for us in both the VT game and in the first half of the UNC game. To me he was turnover prone and didn't create scoring opportunities. Trevon has also been turnover prone in the past, but his effort in the second half of the UNC game may have been the indication that he is turning the corner. He has the speed and handle, if he concentrates on penetration and passing opportunities he will also eventually get his opportunities to finish drives at the Net. He needs to work on his foul shooting as any primary guard is going to be put at the line quite often.

With Bagley playing well and Grayson and GT in the shooting guard roles we are very effective scoring the ball while also having length in the zone.Thats not even mentioning Wendell who can be a force for us both on offense and defense. I like our chances in the ACC tournament.

[CDu]

EDIT: I'm not sure how to measure the "quality" of our shots, which my eyes told me was generally better in the second half. I'd also note that in the first half we only had 3 assists (33.3% of baskets assisted), while in the second half we had 13 assists (72.2% of baskets assisted). Six of those 13 second-half assists were from Trevon.

I would say that we had some bad fortune in that first half, and then got in foul trouble. Here is a breakdown by possession of the first half, with key events also noted in there:

1. Carter post reverse layup (good): good possession
2. Trent 3 (missed): meh possession
3. Bagley 6-8jump hook (missed): okay possession
4. Allen transition layup (good): good possession
5. Allen runner (missed): okay possession
6. Bad pass on the perimeter (unforced turnover): bad possession
7. Carter 6-8 ft jumphook (missed): okay possession
8. Carter driving layup blocked (missed): good possession, tough break
9. Duval fouled on transition layup (missed FTs): good possession, bad result
10. Bad pass (unforced turnover): bad possession
11. Duval steal and fast break layup (good, FT missed): good possession
12. Allen steal and charge: good possession, sloppy finish
13. Trent missed runner, Bolden offensive rebound, another offensive rebound, O'Connell 3: great possession
14. Trent open stepback FT line jumper: meh possession, good result
15. Trent open stepback 15ft baseline line jumper: meh possession
16. Allen 25 ft 3pt shot (missed): meh possession
17. Bagley layup fouled (made 1 of 2): okay possession (forced the pass but got away with it)
18. Allen 25 ft 3pt shot (missed): meh possession
19. Bagley dunk: good possession
20. Trent stepback 3, DeLaurier open 3 (both missed): meh possession
21. DeLaurier fouled on a 50/50 ball bad pass (made 1 of 2): meh possession, lucky break
22. Allen steal and dunk: good possession
23. Carter post reverse layup (missed): good possession, tough break
24. Carter 8-10 ft jumphook (missed): okay possession
25. Bagley 3 (airball): meh possession
26. Allen driving dunk attempt fouled (made 1 of 2): good possession
27. Trent floater: okay possession, good result

[no Bagley]
28. Bolden dunk: good possession
29. Trent stepback 19 footer: meh possession

[no Bagley or Carter]

So up until we lost both Bagley and Carter, we were still getting mostly good possessions (18 of our 29 possessions). We weren't finishing well, though (especially at the line), which is why we had just 23 points to this point. We did settle on several possessions, but only had a handful of really bad possessions in there. Many of the possessions I listed as "meh" were still open looks, just not necessarily easy or best-option type of looks (long 3s, fadeaways, etc).

But once Bagley and Carter both got their second, the offense went downhill, with three meh/bad possesions and no points.

30. Allen contested leaning 15 footer (missed), offensive rebound fouled (missed 1 and 1): meh possession, lucky bounce, unlucky free throws
31. Allen contested 19 footer: meh possession
32. O'Connell 3 (missed), offensive rebound, Trent stepback contested 3 (missed): meh possession

Then late in the half, we brought Bagley back in. And we had good possessions, but were unlucky to score just 2 points.

[Bagley back in]
33. Bagley fouled with a bad foul (missed 2): okay possession, lucky foul, bad result
34. Allen runner (made): good possession
35. Bagley travel deep in the post: good possession, tough break

So we were running our offense reasonably well in the first half, just doing a really poor job of finishing. Both in terms of FG attempts and especially FT attempts.

Now, in the second half, when Duval came in, we did score on 18 of our last 26 meaningful possessions. So clearly we were getting better looks in the second half. But I don't think we were playing all that poorly in the first half, aside from the obvious of just missing shots.

[CDu]

And for completeness, here's the second half by possession:

1. DeLaurier layup (made): good possession
2. Trent missed 25ft transition three (missed): meh possession
3. Bagley lob for a dunk (made): good possession
4. Bagley travel (turnover, questionable): okay possession, bad luck
5. Bad entry pass (turnover): meh possession
6. Allen with sloppy dribble (turnover): bad possession
7. Carter offensive rebound, layup (made): good possession
8. Trent transition contested 3 (missed): meh possession
9. Carter stripped (turnover): good possession, unlucky
10. Trent missed layup, Carter offensive rebound, missed layup (fouled, made both): good possession
11. Allen fastbreak layup missed, Carter offensive rebound, fouled, Duval 3 (made): good possession
12. Duval draws foul, Allen 3 (made): okay possession
13. Duval drive and dish to Bagley dunk: good possession
14. Trent 3 (missed): okay possession
15. Bagley fouled in post, Allen missed 25ft 3: meh possession
16. Bagley transition 3 (made): meh possession, good outcome
17. Bagley multiple offensive rebounds and made layup (fouled, made ft): good possession
18. Trent 3 (made): good possession
19. Bagley chased down offensive rebound, driving miss and dunk (made): okay possession, great individual effort
20. Trent 3 (made): good possession
21. Allen charge: okay possession, unlucky result
22. Allen transition 3 (made): good possession
23. Duval driving floater (made): good possession
24. Carter lost ball turnover: good possession, unlucky outcome
25. Trent 3 (made): good possession
26. Bolden fouled on defensive rebound (missed 1 and 1): unlucky "possession"
27. Duval drive and dish to Bagley dunk: good possession (Note: I can't overstate how good Duval was in the second half. This only discusses offense, but he made several nice plays defensively too. Just a terrific individual performance).
28. Carter 3 (made): okay possession
29. Carter offensive foul on a drive (good call, tough break): good possession, unlucky result
30. Allen stepback 3 (missed): meh possession - used clock in stallball, but poor execution by Allen passing to Bolden at 3pt line with 6 seconds
31. Duval alleyoop to Bagley (made): good possession
32. Trent missed wide open 3: good possession, bad luck
33. Allen fouled (made 2): good possession
34. Ran out clock

So, 23 of 32 possessions were good or okay. But really, it was 19 of the last 24 meaningful possessions that were good or okay. Just an amazing finish to the game.

[Kedsy]

But I don't think we were playing all that poorly in the first half, aside from the obvious of just missing shots.

Thanks for doing this analysis. Though by your count, we had 20 good possessions out of 35 in the first half, which by percentage (57%) doesn't sound so great. Your second half count of 23 for 32 (72%) sounds (and was) a lot better.

[CDu]

Thanks for doing this analysis. Though by your count, we had 20 good possessions out of 35 in the first half, which by percentage (57%) doesn't sound so great. Your second half count of 23 for 32 (72%) sounds (and was) a lot better.

Well, I lumped "okay" and "good" together because it was an admittedly subjective analysis. I grouped "meh" and "bad" together. But yes, the second half was surely better than the first half, both in process and (especially) results. I just don't think the first half was that bad. The results were bad, but I don't think process was bad.

Worth noting as well that the first half was also burdened by the foul trouble of our two bigs, which really drained the offense. And we didn't Duval much at all in that first half either. Those two things (foul trouble for Carter and Bagley at the same time, and VERY limited minutes for Duval) are probably the single biggest difference between the process performances in the two halves.

[Bob Green]

Key issue for this phase - what's the starting lineup?

I originally had a blurb titled Rotation but ended up deleting it because I did not believe it would generate much discourse. The 8.5 man rotation seems set. As far as who starts and who comes off the bench, I'm going to go all DBR cliche on you - it doesn't matter who starts, it matters who finishes - DeLaurier started against Carolina, Duval finished.

[jv001]

I originally had a blurb titled Rotation but ended up deleting it because I did not believe it would generate much discourse. The 8.5 man rotation seems set. As far as who starts and who comes off the bench, I'm going to go all DBR cliche on you - it doesn't matter who starts, it matters who finishes - DeLaurier started against Carolina, Duval finished.

And Trevon finished very well. :cool: I hope he builds on that performance because when he plays like that, he makes Duke so much better. GoDuke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

And Trevon finished very well. :cool: I hope he builds on that performance because when he plays like that, he makes Duke so much better. GoDuke!

Yep, he could well be the difference between a loss on the first Sunday versus cutting down the ultimate nets.....he is THE wild card for this team. This became kind of clear Saturday.

[Bob Green]

A rubber match against North Carolina would be fantastic from my perspective...

Quarterfinals are in the book, bring on the Tar Heels!

[Kedsy]

Quarterfinals are in the book, bring on the Tar Heels!

You mean, bring on the Hurricanes?

[Troublemaker]

Health - Is the team healthy? Bagley is back after missing four games with a sprained knee; Bolden has a broken nose; Allen has been somewhat bothered by a sore wrist - us fans don't really know how much he has been bothered; DeLaurier missed significant action during the season due to a tweaked hamstring. Are these issues in the rear view mirror? Team health appears to be solid heading into the post season.

Let's see if Wendell can play tomorrow and how he looks with his foot injury.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Five minutes into the last ACC Game of the night and it's 10-0 Miami over UNC. The Heels are 0-10 from the floor so far in the game.