Who Do You NOT Want To See in NCAA Tourney?

[Rich]

I've been watching college basketball for over 30 years now and, although I don't recognize some of the nuances in-game, one thing I have learned is that the NCAA Tourney, more than anything else, is about match-ups. It's not about winning the conference tournament, about being on a roll, about a player who plays lights out one game (because it can always be the opposite the next game), it's about style of play and personnel and who matches-up well against you and who you match-up well against.

So, before the brackets come out and we know whom we are likely to face, what team do you NOT want to see in our bracket? And I'm not just referring to the top 4 seeds we might see the second weekend (no weuxfing here, not saying we're a "lock" (ha ha) to get out of the first weekend), but are there any sleepers, talented or experienced mid majors, or mid tier major conference teams that pose a difficult match-up for Duke whom we would want to avoid if at all possible? Who are they and why? Here's your chance to prove your college basketball prowess and knowledge and identify a Mercer, Lehigh, or South Carolina ahead of time and warn the rest of us of possible danger.

[uh_no]

UNC. if they lose in their first game, I won't have to see them in the tourney anymore! woot.

[drummerdevil]

Virginia... teams we might underrate... and I sure don’t want to see duke lose

[Bob Green]

So, before the brackets come out and we know whom we are likely to face, what team do you NOT want to see in our bracket?

It seems to me this thread would benefit greatly with the addition of a poll.

[jv001]

Any good team that we have to play in front of their fans. Example: South Carolina and not have to play in the same venue with the cheats. GoDuke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Any good team that we have to play in front of their fans. Example: South Carolina and not have to play in the same venue with the cheats. GoDuke!

THIS ^^^^
Also Michigan, or any team that spreads and shoots the 3 really well.....teams like that can lose to anyone....but they can beat anyone.
Also who comes to mind:

Texas Tech
NC State

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I always focus on bad second round match ups. Looking at current seeding projections, ones I've noticed are:

Arizona State, mainly for the Hurley aspect
Seton Hall - veteran team with a lot of quickness
Missouri might have due to the return of Porter, but at this point, I think they will have trouble re-integrating him
Oklahoma for fear of Young

[hallcity]

Any good team that we have to play in front of their fans. Example: South Carolina and not have to play in the same venue with the cheats. GoDuke!

Exactly. We don't want to draw Kansas in the Midwest Regional.

[Troublemaker]

In general, defensive teams. I'm convinced now that if we lose in the NCAAT, it'll be in a game where the opposing D smothers our offense worse than our zone can smother theirs.

One notable exception is Villanova, an offensive team (but hopefully that matchup would only occur in the Final Four, anyway). Not only do they have a historical offensive efficiency, they have players who can hit 2-pt jumpers well (https://hoop-math.com/Villanova2018.php). Brunson, for example, is shooting them at 53%! 2-pt jumpers are pretty much what our zone is hoping to achieve, and 99% of teams won't hurt us with them.

[ndkjr70]

I want absolutely no part of UF. That’s a low-seeded that can beat literally anyone if their 3-point shooting gets hot. It’s also a team that can lose their first game by 40.

[ipatent]

I don't want a rematch with Michigan State.

[TruBlu]

unc. Not because of fearing them. Just don’t want to see those hideous pale blue uniforms they will be wearing as a lower seed.

[Dukehky]

Doesn't matter. We're better than everyone else.

The better the team in front of us, the more focused our team will be. If we play well, no one beats us. I'm most worried about teams like VT in the second round who are super fired up and we may be looking ahead to the Sweet Sixteen.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The three teams that scare me the most are UVa (defense), Nova (experience and coaching), and MSU (super pissed off right now between scandals, likely 2-seed despite lots of wins, angry coach), in that order.

[freshmanjs]

Arizona (likely better than their seed and us against the world mindset)

[CDu]

In general, defensive teams. I'm convinced now that if we lose in the NCAAT, it'll be in a game where the opposing D smothers our offense worse than our zone can smother theirs.

One notable exception is Villanova, an offensive team (but hopefully that matchup would only occur in the Final Four, anyway). Not only do they have a historical offensive efficiency, they have players who can hit 2-pt jumpers well (https://hoop-math.com/Villanova2018.php). Brunson, for example, is shooting them at 53%! 2-pt jumpers are pretty much what our zone is hoping to achieve, and 99% of teams won't hurt us with them.

Interesting, but the teams that we've lost to this season have generally been better offensive teams than defensive teams. St. John's and UVa are of course the exceptions (and UVa is an exception either way as they are the #1 team in the country), but UNC, Va Tech, NC State, and BC were all better offensive teams than defensive teams.

Honestly, the teams that would give me the most concern are teams that spread you out and can hit 3s. But with the zone we're playing, there isn't a team that really terrifies me offensively. Oddly, it just comes down to whether or not we are hitting shots. If he stay healthy and our guards give us anything offensively, we're VERY difficult for anyone to beat.

Not saying we will win it all. Just that I don't think there is a clear team profile that should worry us.

[ChillinDuke]

Arizona in the west.

- Chillin

[CameronBlue]

Any member of the reffing crews who called the 2004 semis or the 2002 regional semis, a game in which Duke led by 13 at the half.

[MarkD83]

Any member of the reffing crews who called the 2004 semis or the 2002 regional semis, a game in which Duke led by 13 at the half.

Cameronblue points out the first issue. How will a game be called. Yesterday's game against unc was scary because of the early fouls called against carter and bagley.

The second point was made several times already about 3 point shooting. However spreading Duke out and getting 3 point looks is a bit negated by our zone. I am more concerned about a team that can put a good shooter and passer at the free throw line. That is the Achilles heel of this defense. Pinson was that guy for a handful of possessions but Duke adjusted.

[OldPhiKap]

I don’t want to be in the same opening pod with UNC.

Other than that, I don’t care. Bring it.

[Devilwin]

I don't want a rematch with Michigan State.

Agreed. We own them, and it sticks in Izzo's craw. They owe us big time, and sooner or later they may figure us out..

[Dukehky]

Cameronblue points out the first issue. How will a game be called. Yesterday's game against unc was scary because of the early fouls called against carter and bagley.

The second point was made several times already about 3 point shooting. However spreading Duke out and getting 3 point looks is a bit negated by our zone. I am more concerned about a team that can put a good shooter and passer at the free throw line. That is the Achilles heel of this defense. Pinson was that guy for a handful of possessions but Duke adjusted.

Yeah, but we didn't adjust. We let Theo do whatever he wanted from right there, which we should have done. That's absolutely the right move. Those are tough mid-range floaters and 18 foot jump shots. Better to give that up than a wide open 21 foot jumper worth more points.

Kids aren't used to taking those shots. Even Jabari and Rodney weren't spectacular from the FT line against Cuse a few years ago. I don't care who gets there, make them beat you from that spot. If they can outscore us by shooting from right there the entire game, go ahead, you deserve to win. More than likely though, that's not going to happen.

[Troublemaker]

Interesting, but the teams that we've lost to this season have generally been better offensive teams than defensive teams. St. John's and UVa are of course the exceptions (and UVa is an exception either way as they are the #1 team in the country), but UNC, Va Tech, NC State, and BC were all better offensive teams than defensive teams.

Honestly, the teams that would give me the most concern are teams that spread you out and can hit 3s. But with the zone we're playing, there isn't a team that really terrifies me offensively. Oddly, it just comes down to whether or not we are hitting shots. If he stay healthy and our guards give us anything offensively, we're VERY difficult for anyone to beat.

Not saying we will win it all. Just that I don't think there is a clear team profile that should worry us.

Most of those losses came prior to Duke becoming a great defensive team by switching to zone full-time. Prior to that switch, it was offensive teams that scared me the most.

We're no longer going to lose games in shootouts, imo. It'll be a defensive grindfest that we lose if we lose.

[brevity]

UNC. if they lose in their first game, I won't have to see them in the tourney anymore! woot.


unc. Not because of fearing them. Just don’t want to see those hideous pale blue uniforms they will be wearing as a lower seed.


I don’t want to be in the same opening pod with UNC.

Other than that, I don’t care. Bring it.

One right answer, three wrong reasons (although I agree that they, their uniforms, and their fans do suck).

I do NOT want anyone to see UNC in the NCAA Tournament because they should be disqualified.

[Wander]

Ha, these answers of Virginia and Michigan State and Villanova are lame... they're just the best teams. Plus, if we see them, we're probably already in the Final Four. I think the spirit of the question is to pick teams that are going to be seeded 5 or lower.

Top pick for me is Missouri, because of the wild card of Michael Porter returning to the lineup.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Ha, these answers of Virginia and Michigan State and Villanova are lame... they're just the best teams. Plus, if we see them, we're probably already in the Final Four. I think the spirit of the question is to pick teams that are going to be seeded 5 or lower.

Top pick for me is Missouri, because of the wild card of Michael Porter returning to the lineup.

Kansas and Xavier not mentioned a lot. But thanks for calling my answers lame!

[House G]

Wichita State or Cincinnati—playing now. Wichita State has finally gotten healthy and they are deep and experienced, with a lot of upper classmen. Some people had them going to the FF.

[drummerdevil]

Notre Dame... we could maybe have them opening round depending on seeding

[Duke07]

I agree re: matchups- personally I'd like to avoid teams w/ great guard play primarily w/ enough of a presence inside to keep up w/ us. Scenarios I'd like to avoid:

- East 2 seed w/ Nova as our 1 (they have the guards to overcome our zone)
- West 1 seed w/ Arizona as our 4 (top end talent playing closer to home- not a great scenario for us as a potential 1 seed)
- MW 1 seed w/ MSU as our 2 (revenge factor etc.)
- MW 2 seed w/ Witchita as our 3 (regional in Omaha..)
- Middle Ten st. (great veteran team), Mizzou (Porter wildcard), or OU (Young wildcard) as second round matchups

I'm not afraid of Xavier/Cincy/Kansas- dream scenario would be MW 1 seed w/ Xavier or Cincy as our 2

[curtis325]

Just win 6 games against increasingly tough opponents. Duke can beat any of them so I don't care who it is.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

- East 2 seed w/ Nova as our 1 (they have the guards to overcome our zone)
- West 1 seed w/ Arizona as our 4 (top end talent playing closer to home- not a great scenario for us as a potential 1 seed)
- MW 1 seed w/ MSU as our 2 (revenge factor etc.)
- MW 2 seed w/ Witchita as our 3 (regional in Omaha..)
- Middle Ten st. (great veteran team), Mizzou (Porter wildcard), or OU (Young wildcard) as second round matchups

I'm not afraid of Xavier/Cincy/Kansas- dream scenario would be MW 1 seed w/ Xavier or Cincy as our 2

Man agree a lot with Middle Tennessee State as a problem...very old team, physically tough, and a Duke match up would be more important to them than any game they've ever played. All the pressure on Duke, all the experience with Middle Tennessee, all the looseness with Middle Tennessee.

Also the worst round to me for number one/two seeds is the second round...7s,8s,9s and 10s are almost always really good teams who have beaten a couple of heavies during the season. As a sixth seed, you may get lucky and draw a 14 in the second round. Top seeds draw nothing worse than 9s...kind of the screwy risk of this format.

[burnspbesq]

The obvious ones, we won’t see on the first weekend. One we might, and don’t want to, is St. Mary’s. We haven’t seen any bigs with Londale’s skill-set. Another is West Virginia. Chaos is not our friend.

[richardjackson199]

I'd like to avoid Arizona in West - but expect the committee is salivating over Bagley vs Ayton. Arizona is full strength and has huge intangible motivation.

I'd also like to avoid Notre Dame, NC State, Michigan, Villanova, and Kentucky

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The obvious ones, we won’t see on the first weekend. One we might, and don’t want to, is St. Mary’s. We haven’t seen any bigs with Londale’s skill-set. Another is West Virginia. Chaos is not our friend.

I was going to answer WVa. Huggins always plays such physical defense that it forces refs to pick and choose which fouls to call. Never a fun game.

A lot of people on this thread seem to be missing the spirit of the OP's question. Not asking for top seeds, but match-up issues we might see early in the tournament.

[BigWayne]

I don’t want to be in the same opening pod with UNC.

Other than that, I don’t care. Bring it.

We're looking pretty good on that point due to UVA. The only way the cheats get to Charlotte is if disaster strikes and they make a run in Brooklyn and knock us down below them. Hopefully the aliens or one of the orange teams prevents that.

[Sixthman]

Jay Bilas said last night that the tournament should be seeded without accounting for the conference tournaments (because the opportunity for the major conference teams to get wins against highly regarded teams and therefore work their way into the tournament was unfair. This is the dumbest thing I've ever heard Jay say. No really. The most dangerous team in the tournament -- and the team I don't want to play -- is the major conference team on a big run. South Carolina last year is a great example. So I don't want to be seeded to catch a team in the second or third round which showed up unexpectedly in the ACC, Big 12, 10, Pac whatever tournament championship game. They typically have competitive talent, a winning formula, lot's of confidence, and the relaxed aggression of a group with nothing to lose because they are playing with house money. Give me UNC or Kansas and you knock them back a couple of times and they may fold (I thought UNC oddly concluded they could not win last night a little early). The major conference team unexpectedly wining games this time of year isn't surprised or discouraged by anything.

[dukelifer]

I'd like to avoid Arizona in West - but expect the committee is salivating over Bagley vs Ayton. Arizona is full strength and has huge intangible motivation.

I'd also like to avoid Notre Dame, NC State, Michigan, Villanova, and Kentucky

I would not be surprised to play Notre Dame in the ACC tourney and then if they beat Duke- they will be in the big dance. That is worrisome.

[clutch299]

First time poster here, but a life-long Duke fan:

The team that scares me the most is Purdue. I don't like our odds against a senior-heavy team that can shoot the three and score inside and rebound. I think we may struggle against teams that can balance the floor inside and out and give our bigs some trouble down low defensively.

As for a second round matchup that I don't like, I'd have to say Seton Hall or Butler. Both teams are physical, have some size and like to rebound.


Also, I saw someone list Kentucky as a team to avoid, and I'd have to disagree. I think Kentucky would be a dream matchup for this team. They scare my 0% as do most teams that are inexperienced and turn the ball over too much. Also, a big time win on a big time stage vs. UK would be pretty sweet for recruiting.

[CDu]

Most of those losses came prior to Duke becoming a great defensive team by switching to zone full-time. Prior to that switch, it was offensive teams that scared me the most.

We're no longer going to lose games in shootouts, imo. It'll be a defensive grindfest that we lose if we lose.

Right, but since we've switched to zone, we've hammered the teams that were better defensively than offensively (Louisville, Syracuse). Our worst performances (relative to prediction) have been at Va Tech (an offense-first team), UNC at home (ditto, moreso), and at Georgia Tech (the exception that proves the rule ;)). We destroyed Syracuse and Louisville, and we pulled away from Clemson.

[richardjackson199]

Not necessarily a team Duke wants to avoid, but a team most should want to avoid early in tourney is Louisville IMO. Yes we killed them, but that was in Cameron, we were on fire, and they were shell-shocked.

They showed how dangerous they are vs UVA, until that insanity at the end.

They might miss the dance. But if they don't, they're not a happy first weekend game for somebody. Quentin Snider could be a nightmare in the dance. Spalding, Mahmoud, and Adel can be nightmares when they are on.

I certainly think they are potentially more dangerous than Syracuse. Not as well coached. Just dangerous.

Louisville and Notre Dame are by far the scariest ACC bubble teams IMO.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Jay Bilas said last night that the tournament should be seeded without accounting for the conference tournaments (because the opportunity for the major conference teams to get wins against highly regarded teams and therefore work their way into the tournament was unfair. This is the dumbest thing I've ever heard Jay say. No really. The most dangerous team in the tournament -- and the team I don't want to play -- is the major conference team on a big run. South Carolina last year is a great example. So I don't want to be seeded to catch a team in the second or third round which showed up unexpectedly in the ACC, Big 12, 10, Pac whatever tournament championship game. They typically have competitive talent, a winning formula, lot's of confidence, and the relaxed aggression of a group with nothing to lose because they are playing with house money. Give me UNC or Kansas and you knock them back a couple of times and they may fold (I thought UNC oddly concluded they could not win last night a little early). The major conference team unexpectedly wining games this time of year isn't surprised or discouraged by anything.

I didn't want to bring this up because I generally dislike the amount of Bilas bashing on the board. But God, I agree. If Notre Dame goes on a tear and reaches the ACC title game, that absolutely deserves consideration. They would beat top tier teams end route and should be rewarded.

[NashvilleDevil]

Mike Eades, Jamie Lucky, and Ted Valentine.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Mike Eades, Jamie Lucky, and Ted Valentine.

Today's winner of the interwebs........:cool:

[dukebballcamper90-91]

I don’t want to be in the same opening pod with UNC.

Other than that, I don’t care. Bring it.

I second this!

[Ian]

I didn't want to bring this up because I generally dislike the amount of Bilas bashing on the board. But God, I agree. If Notre Dame goes on a tear and reaches the ACC title game, that absolutely deserves consideration. They would beat top tier teams end route and should be rewarded.

It was completely absurd, when Shulman asked him if his idea would make the conference tournament complete irrelevant. He answered "well they are still playing for the automatic bid". There are two problems with his answer:

1) If the automatic bid is not handed out yet, how can you even determine who the at larges are in the first place? Wouldn't an at large team winning their tourney mean you now have an extra slot, and wouldn't a dark house team who never would be invited winning means you have fewer at larges bids to hand out?

2) Most of the top teams in the P6 conference more or less have locks an invite, and to them the automatic bid is no incentive. The ACC for example if the bid and seeding was handed out today, non of the top 6-7 teams from UVA to UNC would have anything to play for, for them this might as well be exhibition games.

The only way his plan works if it you cancel the conference tournaments, make everything determined by regular season. Regular season winners get the automatic bid, etc.

[Sixthman]

First time poster here, but a life-long Duke fan:

The team that scares me the most is Purdue. I don't like our odds against a senior-heavy team that can shoot the three and score inside and rebound. I think we may struggle against teams that can balance the floor inside and out and give our bigs some trouble down low defensively.

As for a second round matchup that I don't like, I'd have to say Seton Hall or Butler. Both teams are physical, have some size and like to rebound.


Also, I saw someone list Kentucky as a team to avoid, and I'd have to disagree. I think Kentucky would be a dream matchup for this team. They scare my 0% as do most teams that are inexperienced and turn the ball over too much. Also, a big time win on a big time stage vs. UK would be pretty sweet for recruiting.

Great post and I agree with all.

[richardjackson199]

Mike Eades, Jamie Lucky, and Ted Valentine.

I get it, but the truth is that Duke has done extremely well overall in big games Valentine ref'd dating back to 91-92 runs. You may not like him, but he has not been unfair to Duke overall, and he definitely has not been bad for us.

[OldPhiKap]

First time poster here, but a life-long Duke fan:

The team that scares me the most is Purdue. I don't like our odds against a senior-heavy team that can shoot the three and score inside and rebound. I think we may struggle against teams that can balance the floor inside and out and give our bigs some trouble down low defensively.

As for a second round matchup that I don't like, I'd have to say Seton Hall or Butler. Both teams are physical, have some size and like to rebound.


Also, I saw someone list Kentucky as a team to avoid, and I'd have to disagree. I think Kentucky would be a dream matchup for this team. They scare my 0% as do most teams that are inexperienced and turn the ball over too much. Also, a big time win on a big time stage vs. UK would be pretty sweet for recruiting.

Welcome. Clutch. Quality first post.

Thanks for putting the Boilermakers on my radar, I think they are about to tip with Michigan. Will be worth watching.

[Ian]

Teams that play physical defense. Like Texas Tech or Cinci, also Cinci will be a very high seed and every game is tough at that point. Houston is also a team I don't want to see as a 7th seed.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Welcome. Clutch. Quality first post.

Thanks for putting the Boilermakers on my radar, I think they are about to tip with Michigan. Will be worth watching.

Having watched those two go toe to toe earlier in the year, it should be a good one.

[weezie]

Heck, I don't want to see Mike Eades in the frozen food section of the grocery store, much less in any tourney. I might clock that guy with a bag of frozen fish.

[OldPhiKap]

Heck, I don't want to see Mike Eades in the frozen food section of the grocery store, much less in any tourney. I might clock that guy with a bag of frozen fish.

Pretty sure you are allowed to do that on Lenten Fridays.

[weezie]

Pretty sure you are allowed to do that on Lenten Fridays.

They say you are supposed to perform acts of contrition during Lent. I could use that bag of flounder filets to encourage Eades to reflect upon his failings.

[Spanarkel]

Jay Bilas said last night that the tournament should be seeded without accounting for the conference tournaments (because the opportunity for the major conference teams to get wins against highly regarded teams and therefore work their way into the tournament was unfair. This is the dumbest thing I've ever heard Jay say. No really. The most dangerous team in the tournament -- and the team I don't want to play -- is the major conference team on a big run. South Carolina last year is a great example. So I don't want to be seeded to catch a team in the second or third round which showed up unexpectedly in the ACC, Big 12, 10, Pac whatever tournament championship game. They typically have competitive talent, a winning formula, lot's of confidence, and the relaxed aggression of a group with nothing to lose because they are playing with house money. Give me UNC or Kansas and you knock them back a couple of times and they may fold (I thought UNC oddly concluded they could not win last night a little early). The major conference team unexpectedly wining games this time of year isn't surprised or discouraged by anything.

South Carolina was 4-6 in its 10 games prior to playing Duke in Greenville last season.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

South Carolina was 4-6 in its 10 games prior to playing Duke in Greenville last season.

True, and they couldn't hit the ocean from the end of a pier for that stretch. That said, they caught fire in Greenville, played extremely well in the ER in NYC, and their semi final game against Gonzaga was the best played game of the 3 FF games. I don't know if they ever get it going without the Greenville placement.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Pretty sure you are allowed to do that on Lenten Fridays.

What about Kiss My Ash Wednesdays?:cool:

[WVDUKEFAN]

WVU.

[WVDUKEFAN]

Welcome. Clutch. Quality first post.

Thanks for putting the Boilermakers on my radar, I think they are about to tip with Michigan. Will be worth watching.

I agree. Even though Michigan has them by double digits right now.

[MaxAMillion]

Jay Bilas said last night that the tournament should be seeded without accounting for the conference tournaments (because the opportunity for the major conference teams to get wins against highly regarded teams and therefore work their way into the tournament was unfair. This is the dumbest thing I've ever heard Jay say. No really. The most dangerous team in the tournament -- and the team I don't want to play -- is the major conference team on a big run. South Carolina last year is a great example. So I don't want to be seeded to catch a team in the second or third round which showed up unexpectedly in the ACC, Big 12, 10, Pac whatever tournament championship game. They typically have competitive talent, a winning formula, lot's of confidence, and the relaxed aggression of a group with nothing to lose because they are playing with house money. Give me UNC or Kansas and you knock them back a couple of times and they may fold (I thought UNC oddly concluded they could not win last night a little early). The major conference team unexpectedly wining games this time of year isn't surprised or discouraged by anything.

I don't think it is dumb at all. It puts team from outside of power conferences at a major disadvantage. ND gets hot for a week and suddenly they get more consideration than a conference champion from a smaller conference? Smaller conferences already have to struggle with SOS disadvantages. Why reward 2nd tier power conference teams with a second bite at the apple. ND and teams like them should be done unless they win the conference tournament.

[accfanfrom1970]

Yeah, but we didn't adjust. We let Theo do whatever he wanted from right there, which we should have done. That's absolutely the right move. Those are tough mid-range floaters and 18 foot jump shots. Better to give that up than a wide open 21 foot jumper worth more points.

Kids aren't used to taking those shots. Even Jabari and Rodney weren't spectacular from the FT line against Cuse a few years ago. I don't care who gets there, make them beat you from that spot. If they can outscore us by shooting from right there the entire game, go ahead, you deserve to win. More than likely though, that's not going to happen.

For some reason I have a vision of a Jack Givens type game against our zone. I'm assuming master that he is Coach K will make the necessary adjustments to prevent a player going for 40+ against us.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I don't think it is dumb at all. It puts team from outside of power conferences at a major disadvantage. ND gets hot for a week and suddenly they get more consideration than a conference champion from a smaller conference? Smaller conferences already have to struggle with SOS disadvantages. Why reward 2nd tier power conference teams with a second bite at the apple. ND and teams like them should be done unless they win the conference tournament.

Because it is about choosing the best teams. If Notre Dame beats three top ACC teams next weekend, it is foolish to not recognize they are better than their record indicates.

[FerryFor50]

Because it is about choosing the best teams. If Notre Dame beats three top ACC teams next weekend, it is foolish to not recognize they are better than their record indicates.

Notre dame is a strange example though, given they’ve been without Bonzie most of the year.

I thibk Bilas is thinking of teams that have no business being in the dance from major conferences, like if Pitt goes on an improbable ACCT run.

[gocanes0506]

Based on the Pods

Michigan and Michigan St may get Detroit
Nova and Xavier may get Pittsburgh
Kansas will get Wichita
Virginia gets Charlotte with one of Duke/UNC or gets Nashville
Purdue gets Nashville with UVA or Duke/UNC
Wichita St and Texas Tech gets Dallas
Gonzaga gets Boise

Cincy and Auburn have to travel to San Diego? So many east teams and unless the committee rates a big 10 champ lower than Cincy, both cincy and Auburn will be the lowest ranked of the top 4s per region that will have their nearest 2 regions consumed by much higher ranked teams.

I’d bet a good amount we both get Charlotte. There is a slight chance one of us gets Nashville but it’s almost certain we both get Charlotte.

[FerryFor50]

This is the first season in awhile where I don’t see a team that scares me. In fact, I’d say that *Duke* is the answer to the “who do you not want to see question.”

Granted, this year’s team can lose to anyone, or beat anyone. But I like the matchups in just about every game.

[UrinalCake]

Generally speaking, we’re always worried about experienced guard-oriented teams that shoot the three well. Basically Mercer from 2014. Being able to hit the three adds such a degree of variability, allowing less talented teams to spring an upset.

In terms of specific teams, I was watching Rutgers a couple nights ago in their game against Purdue and they looked pretty darned good. Had a pair of guards who could create and drain shots from anywhere.

[jv001]

This is the first season in awhile where I don’t see a team that scares me. In fact, I’d say that *Duke* is the answer to the “who do you not want to see question.”

Granted, this year’s team can lose to anyone, or beat anyone. But I like the matchups in just about every game.

I'm with you FerryFor50, there aren't any teams that just scares me. The team I fear the most is our own Blue Devils, the one that sometimes goes 4-9 minutes without a basket. We seem to have figured out the defensive side of the game, now if we can get the consistency on offense. Then we are in my opinion the favorites. GoDuke!

[kako]

Generally speaking, we’re always worried about experienced guard-oriented teams that shoot the three well. Basically Mercer from 2014. Being able to hit the three adds such a degree of variability, allowing less talented teams to spring an upset.


Agreed. Out here in CA, I've watched St. Mary's. They fit that bill. They have seniors, can nail 3s, and they have a real post player with height and skill in Jock Langdale.

Also would not want to see Arizona. If Duke gets them, it would be 2nd weekend or better. If so, and Miller is coaching, their added motivation would be formidable.

No West Coast bias! There are just the teams that are on TV when I get home...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Agreed. Out here in CA, I've watched St. Mary's. They fit that bill. They have seniors, can nail 3s, and they have a real post player with height and skill in Jock Langdale.

Also would not want to see Arizona. If Duke gets them, it would be 2nd weekend or better. If so, and Miller is coaching, their added motivation would be formidable.

No West Coast bias! There are just the teams that are on TV when I get home...

Arizona will be on a friggin mission.....they now feel wrongly accused, and seem to have new life, after almost every commentator on ESPN buried them and Miller. And oh, they're pretty darned talented...

[Troublemaker]

Generally speaking, we’re always worried about experienced guard-oriented teams that shoot the three well. Basically Mercer from 2014. Being able to hit the three adds such a degree of variability, allowing less talented teams to spring an upset.

In terms of specific teams, I was watching Rutgers a couple nights ago in their game against Purdue and they looked pretty darned good. Had a pair of guards who could create and drain shots from anywhere.

Rutgers finished with a 15-19 record and won't qualify for the NIT. (Of the few glimpses I saw of Rutgers this season, I actually do agree they look better than their record, though.)

[FerryFor50]

Generally speaking, we’re always worried about experienced guard-oriented teams that shoot the three well. Basically Mercer from 2014. Being able to hit the three adds such a degree of variability, allowing less talented teams to spring an upset.

In terms of specific teams, I was watching Rutgers a couple nights ago in their game against Purdue and they looked pretty darned good. Had a pair of guards who could create and drain shots from anywhere.

Those teams traditionally have given us problems because of the lack of interior defense and a stubborn attachment yo man to man defense. Now? I’d say team like that are less threatening, in favor of teams that are experienced, move the ball well, shoot lights out from 3, good rebounding and have a guy who can attack thr middle of a zone. Not a ton of teams out there like that.

[kshepinthehouse]

Notre Dame with Bonzie back

[gam7]

Welcome. Clutch. Quality first post.

Thanks for putting the Boilermakers on my radar, I think they are about to tip with Michigan. Will be worth watching.

And I'll put Michigan on the no-thanks list. They look impressive to me and ready to make deep run.

I usually take the position that it's nuts to want to be a stronger lower seed over a weaker high seed (e.g., best 2 seed vs. worst 1 seed), but based on who is projected to be seeded where (see bracketmatrix), this year may turn out to be an exception. I would much rather play a projected 3 seed (Auburn, Cincy, Tennessee, Wichita St.) in the sweet 16 and a projected 1/4 (the usual projected top seeds and 4s of Texas Tech, WVU, Michigan, Clemson, plus a possible Arizona in the round of 8, rather than play one of those 4 seeds/Arizona in round of 16 with a projected 2 in the round of 8.

Also, note that the projected 1s have an average kenpom ranking of 7.5, while the projected 2s have an average kenpom of 5.25. Duke moving to the 1-line would change this because Duke likely would be swapping with Xavier or Kansas, which are both ranked outside the top 10 in kenpom.

[heyman25]

This year I would agree with Michigan, but if Duke can continue its improvised structured playground offense we will be the team everyone except Virginia does not want as an opponent.

West Virginia,Michigan State, Virginia,Xavier, Kansas and Villanova will be difficult teams to beat. There are probably others. UNC NC State Clemson Notre Dame Va Tech and Louisville on any given night could be difficult teams to beat.

Tre Duval needs to continue his brilliant 2nd half for the rest of the season. Grayson Alex and Gary need to make more shots to open the interior for Marvin, Wendell and Marquise.

[throatybeard]

Notre Dame with Bonzie back

Winner.

To think i was gonna say Golden State.

[richardjackson199]

Cameronblue points out the first issue. How will a game be called. Yesterday's game against unc was scary because of the early fouls called against carter and bagley.

The second point was made several times already about 3 point shooting. However spreading Duke out and getting 3 point looks is a bit negated by our zone. I am more concerned about a team that can put a good shooter and passer at the free throw line. That is the Achilles heel of this defense. Pinson was that guy for a handful of possessions but Duke adjusted.

Interestingly, I think it's fairly likely that if Duke continues to win in Brooklyn we will face 3 teams with matchups most suited to beat us. (Experienced teams with lots of great 3 point shooters who move the ball well, can rebound well, are well-coached, and can put a problem guy in the middle of our zone).

Notre Dame with Bonzie and Farrell could be big problem. UNCheat could be a big problem. UVA could be a big problem.

But that is exactly who we would need to beat to win this year's ACC Tourney. Tough draw! Fortunately it's likely to produce some very difficult tests with lower stakes than the big dance. So you couldn't ask for a better final tune-up opportunity. And if we ace it, we'll get rewarded with a #1 seed.

That said, I'll be rooting hard for Va Tech on Wed. I think we beat them with payback factor, and I want to increase the likelihood that Duke actually earns that #1 seed. But how we play this weekend should def be a nice indicator of how ready we are for March Madness and hopefully April.

[bedeviled]

Dark horse: I only saw Dan Hurley's Rhode Island team play Seton Hall, but they looked sound in that instance.

The Good: They made it to NCAAT 2nd round last year. They play 5 seniors. Five of the 6 guards with significant minutes have had 20-point games (and the other had an 18 point game)

The Bad: Team stats aren't good. For example, they're small, foul a lot, and only shoot 33.8% from 3-pt (although, they do force turnovers and prevent 3-pts). Quality opponents and quadrant analysis are limited by their conference placement.

The Deception: They got battered around the last couple weeks - dropping 3 out of 5 (two of those losses were after securing the A-10 regular season title). This includes a 30-point home loss to lowly St. Joes, which had a barttorvik.com gamescore of 1 (one!) and dropped their kenpom rank from #27 to #48 (one game...at the end of February!)!

If I may be so bold as to judge based on the single game I saw, I suspect they are a capable team despite bad/streaky play. The recent results might lead to a deceptively low NCAAT seeding, and I'll be cheering for Hurley and his seniors to lay it on the line for an "upset" or two (possibly the last game in URI uniforms for players and coach).

[MCFinARL]

Notre Dame with Bonzie back

I wouldn't even like to see Bonzie in the tournament all by himself. He really knows how to play against Duke.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

But how we play this weekend should def be a nice indicator of how ready we are for March Madness and hopefully April.

Every year and situation is different, but this theory did not hold up last year at all, for us or the Heels.

[mpj96]

Notre Dame... we could maybe have them opening round depending on seeding

This one. Combines a coach that knows us well in Brey, return of would be all conf but for injury Bonzie and a lower profile that may give our younguns overconfidence. I'd like to see the highest seeds possible. Our guys can beat anyone if they are up for the game.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This one. Combines a coach that knows us well in Brey, return of would be all conf but for injury Bonzie and a lower profile that may give our younguns overconfidence. I'd like to see the highest seeds possible. Our guys can beat anyone if they are up for the game.

Yep, it does seem Duke's worst games are against lower seeds, and most NCAAT losses are to lower seeds. Of course, some of that is baked in mathematically since Duke is normally a high seed - but facing a seed who will look at a Duke game as their lifetime super bowl gives them a lot of freedom from pressure, while the opposite is true for Duke.

I remember on Duke's first title run in 1991 that the Devils were hardly favored in the East Regional, but won both games handily, then shocked UNLV in the semi finals. The most nerve wracking game was Kansas in the finals, because they were even more Cinderella than Duke was - and Duke clearly had some UNLV fatigue.

Of course, Kentucky fatigue for Wisconsin didn't hurt in 2015.

[Troublemaker]

Every year and situation is different, but this theory did not hold up last year at all, for us or the Heels.

Last season, if I recall correctly, we had to make stirring second-half comebacks in the QF, SF, and F wins. I believe the chinks in the armor were there to be seen if we could get past the excitement of winning those games.

That said, I would agree that what happens this week isn't necessarily predictive of what happens the following few weeks.

[freshmanjs]

Last season, if I recall correctly, we had to make stirring second-half comebacks in the QF, SF, and F wins. I believe the chinks in the armor were there to be seen if we could get past the excitement of winning those games.



I guess we'd have to say the same about many of our big wins this season.

[Troublemaker]

I guess we'd have to say the same about many of our big wins this season.

For sure, including our most recent win, obviously.

I think we'll all be watching closely in the ACCT to see if the second-half performance against UNC means Duke has fixed its offensive problems. If so, we won't be needing stirring comebacks to win going forward.

[Acymetric]

I don't think it is dumb at all. It puts team from outside of power conferences at a major disadvantage. ND gets hot for a week and suddenly they get more consideration than a conference champion from a smaller conference? Smaller conferences already have to struggle with SOS disadvantages. Why reward 2nd tier power conference teams with a second bite at the apple. ND and teams like them should be done unless they win the conference tournament.

...But more opportunities against quality opponents is kind of the benefit of being in a power conference, I'm not sure I see that as a bad thing.

I'm also not sure how many examples there are of teams who did not deserve to be in the NCAA field who went on a run in their conference tournament (but did not win, so no automatic bid) and ended up getting an undeserved bid. Not saying it doesn't happen, but I feel like Bilas is taking aim at a pretty fringe-case problem here. I am all about some mid-majors but see no reason not to reward major conference teams that play higher quality competition, and that includes the conference tournaments.

[UrinalCake]

I wouldn't even like to see Bonzie in the tournament all by himself. He really knows how to play against Duke.

I also think we’re better equipped to face them this year than in the past. As another poster said, our defense this season is so different so it's hard to use past seasons as comparisons. Typically our problem is that we don’t have a 5 who can guard on the perimeter, so Bonzie gets open threes and is just a matchup nightmare. They could always spread us out in the M2M and have multiple guys who can hit threes; but our zone will really help mitigate that. We also don’t usually have a scoring 5 who can make him pay on the other end (except when we had Okafor, and we did beat them by 30 that season despite losing two other times). But now he's going to have to guard either Bagley or Carter.

[Wander]

I don't think it is dumb at all. It puts team from outside of power conferences at a major disadvantage. ND gets hot for a week and suddenly they get more consideration than a conference champion from a smaller conference? Smaller conferences already have to struggle with SOS disadvantages. Why reward 2nd tier power conference teams with a second bite at the apple. ND and teams like them should be done unless they win the conference tournament.

You have a point, but we shouldn't be discounting any games that happen.

The solution, then, is to eliminate all conference tournaments. They're sort of pointless, and hurt the smaller conferences by eliminating some of their better teams.

[COYS]

Of course, some of that is baked in mathematically since Duke is normally a high seed -

This is absolutely true. Duke so rarely faces a higher seed it's almost impossible for Duke to do anything but lose to a lower seed unless we win the whole thing. Since 1998, we've only lost to a higher seeded team 3 times (2003 to #2 Kansas as a #3 seed, 2013 to #1 Louisville as a #2 seed, and 2016 to #1 Oregon as a #4 seed). If memory serves me correctly, I think we'e been favored by Vegas in all the other games we've played except for the 2004 F4 loss to UCONN and the 2015 championship victory over Wisconsin.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This is absolutely true. Duke so rarely faces a higher seed it's almost impossible for Duke to do anything but lose to a lower seed unless we win the whole thing. Since 1998, we've only lost to a higher seeded team 3 times (2003 to #2 Kansas as a #3 seed, 2013 to #1 Louisville as a #2 seed, and 2016 to #1 Oregon as a #4 seed). If memory serves me correctly, I think we'e been favored by Vegas in all the other games we've played except for the 2004 F4 loss to UCONN and the 2015 championship victory over Wisconsin.

We were pretty big underdogs v Vegas in 1990 and 91

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Last season, if I recall correctly, we had to make stirring second-half comebacks in the QF, SF, and F wins. I believe the chinks in the armor were there to be seen if we could get past the excitement of winning those games.
.

Trouble, the way things turned out certainly adds credence to your chinks in the armor theory. I started watching the ACCT last season hoping for a loss.. and HERES WHY: I thought what that team needed was for Grayson and Harry and Marques to rest and heal, and to sneak in as a 4 or so but healthy, and without some of the high seed pressure. Besides, I didn't think as banged up as the team was that an ACC title was even possible.

Well then the real Harry makes an appearance, and the team seemed to really find itself, else they wouldn't have won 4 in a row, two over more rested teams. And whether it was a Brooklyn hang over, or chinks in the armor, or a combination of both, playing two hostile road games didn't help anything.

[clutch299]

I agree. Even though Michigan has them by double digits right now.

Yeah, Michigan looks to be hitting their stride right now. I don't know what they finished with, but at one point late in the second half I saw a stat box pop up and show that Michigan had 1 (1!) turnover through probably 30+ minutes of basketball. (Which is well below their season average of ~9 TOs/game, which is one of the best rates in the country.) All of that to say, I think I'd like to avoid the Wolverines too.

They probably played themselves into a 3 or 4 seed with the win vs. Pudue yesterday, and Lunardi currently has them as the 3 seed to Duke's 2-seed in the East. Not a fan of that draw, at all.

[gofurman]

I am always scared of every team .. especially 7-10 seeds is my focus.. as said above, they are ranked there because they have shown the ability to win a few big games - think VT, NC State, K State, Oklahoma maybe, Notre Dame but I think they are lower seeded than that if they make it.. the good thing is most of these are ACC and they would avoid a second round ACC matchup if possible is my understanding.

Interested in others thoughts on 32 round 7-10 seeds we want t avoid..

[elvis14]

As others have mentioned, Notre Dame with Bonzi back is a team that nobody wants to see in their bracket (and of course they are aiming for Duke in the ACCT). For our team, the other thing I don't want to see is a team that plays super physical in the paint on a night when the refs decide to look the other way. A less skilled team can even things up with a more talented team when they are allowed to bump grab, ride, etc. all game long. When that happens, we have to shoot well to overcome.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I am always scared of every team .. especially 7-10 seeds is my focus.. as said above, they are ranked there because they have shown the ability to win a few big games - think VT, NC State, K State, Oklahoma maybe, Notre Dame but I think they are lower seeded than that if they make it.. the good thing is most of these are ACC and they would avoid a second round ACC matchup if possible is my understanding.

Interested in others thoughts on 32 round 7-10 seeds we want t avoid..

EL BINGO...The 1 and 2 seed lines really face a rough go in the second round, because all those teams they face will be in that 7-10 range - and almost all of those are Power 5 teams who lost a lot of games, but who beat at least a couple of heavy weights. SCARY round for a highly seeded team...round 2 (can you say South Carolina?)

A 4 seed may get lucky and see a 12 in the second round or something. A 5 seed may see a 13. A top seed sees at worst, a 9 seed. Those are good teams. There is no other way to do the brackets really, but that has always bothered me....that dern second round.

[Turk]

General principle:
In the OAD era, Duke has had difficulty with mature, physical teams that are well-balanced inside and out. After the past few years, it seems pretty obvious to me that a freshman-dominated Duke team will always have difficulty against a team who may not have as much pure basketball talent, but consist of grown men in their early 20s, who are 10-15 pounds more muscular, and know what they can do and what they can't, and most importantly, know how to play together.

I think South Carolina fit that description perfectly (and can we please stop twerping about it - enough already!), and Oregon had 2 seniors and a junior in their rotation, and Mercer seemed like an entire team of 5th year seniors. (I was at the Mercer game, where I had the first real doubt about the whole OAD strategy, when Coach K was forced to sub offense-defense down the stretch, taking Jabari out on defense and replacing him with a not-100% Amile.)

Specific teams off the top of my head:
Cincinnati. Purdue. Michigan State. (No, I don't care about the recent run of success against Izzo). TCU (sight unseen - Jamie Dixon is always good for a rock fight). Maybe Butler (mostly on reputation too).

Maybe WVU. They seem to be specializing in close losses, and the few times I've watched them, they have made uncharacteristic errors for a Huggy Bear team. I am guessing they're either missing something or they're not quite a true band of brothers. (But that's what they *want* you to think!!)

I'll be hunting for a few more to add to the list this week (mostly looking at 5 seeds and below - those are the ones that sneak up on you).

[BigWayne]

I don't think it is dumb at all. It puts team from outside of power conferences at a major disadvantage. ND gets hot for a week and suddenly they get more consideration than a conference champion from a smaller conference? Smaller conferences already have to struggle with SOS disadvantages. Why reward 2nd tier power conference teams with a second bite at the apple. ND and teams like them should be done unless they win the conference tournament.

Why bother with conference schedules at all then? It just disadvantages teams from weak conferences.

[Ian]

General principle:
In the OAD era, Duke has had difficulty with mature, physical teams that are well-balanced inside and out. After the past few years, it seems pretty obvious to me that a freshman-dominated Duke team will always have difficulty against a team who may not have as much pure basketball talent, but consist of grown men in their early 20s, who are 10-15 pounds more muscular, and know what they can do and what they can't, and most importantly, know how to play together.

I think South Carolina fit that description perfectly (and can we please stop twerping about it - enough already!), and Oregon had 2 seniors and a junior in their rotation, and Mercer seemed like an entire team of 5th year seniors. (I was at the Mercer game, where I had the first real doubt about the whole OAD strategy, when Coach K was forced to sub offense-defense down the stretch, taking Jabari out on defense and replacing him with a not-100% Amile.)

Specific teams off the top of my head:
Cincinnati. Purdue. Michigan State. (No, I don't care about the recent run of success against Izzo). TCU (sight unseen - Jamie Dixon is always good for a rock fight). Maybe Butler (mostly on reputation too).

Maybe WVU. They seem to be specializing in close losses, and the few times I've watched them, they have made uncharacteristic errors for a Huggy Bear team. I am guessing they're either missing something or they're not quite a true band of brothers. (But that's what they *want* you to think!!)

I'll be hunting for a few more to add to the list this week (mostly looking at 5 seeds and below - those are the ones that sneak up on you).

I don't know why you list that criteria and then put Michigan State into the list. Michigan States five starters are 4 sophs and 1 freshmen.

BTW I generally agree with you that the teams that worry me the most are physical teams made up of mostly 22-23 year olds.

[Troublemaker]

I am always scared of every team .. especially 7-10 seeds is my focus.. as said above, they are ranked there because they have shown the ability to win a few big games - think VT, NC State, K State, Oklahoma maybe, Notre Dame but I think they are lower seeded than that if they make it.. the good thing is most of these are ACC and they would avoid a second round ACC matchup if possible is my understanding.

Interested in others thoughts on 32 round 7-10 seeds we want t avoid..

Well, below are the 6 to 11 seeds in the latest Bracket Matrix. I'm extending your range on either side to give a margin of error. Obviously the committee could easily turn a Matrix 6-seed into a real-life 7-seed, for example.

https://i.imgur.com/yu5QHl5.png

I'm going to ignore the ACC teams. While technically possible to play them in the Round of 32, I think the committee still avoids it unless really weird circumstances force their hand. Many of teams I'm just not familiar with. Houston, for example. But, to answer your question... at first glance: Florida, Arkansas, Nevada, Texas, USC.

But any of those teams could beat us if we're not playing well.

[Turk]

I don't know why you list that criteria and then put Michigan State into the list. Michigan States five starters are 4 sophs and 1 freshmen.

BTW I generally agree with you that the teams that worry me the most are physical teams made up of mostly 22-23 year olds.

Yeah, good catch - Michigan State is similar to Duke and don't fit the criteria. They were a knee-jerk "I don't want to play them regardless" team, mostly because of Izzo.

[Turk]

Dark horse: I only saw Dan Hurley's Rhode Island team play Seton Hall, but they looked sound in that instance.

The Good: They made it to NCAAT 2nd round last year. They play 5 seniors. Five of the 6 guards with significant minutes have had 20-point games (and the other had an 18 point game)

The Bad: Team stats aren't good. For example, they're small, foul a lot, and only shoot 33.8% from 3-pt (although, they do force turnovers and prevent 3-pts). Quality opponents and quadrant analysis are limited by their conference placement.

The Deception: They got battered around the last couple weeks - dropping 3 out of 5 (two of those losses were after securing the A-10 regular season title). This includes a 30-point home loss to lowly St. Joes, which had a barttorvik.com gamescore of 1 (one!) and dropped their kenpom rank from #27 to #48 (one game...at the end of February!)!

If I may be so bold as to judge based on the single game I saw, I suspect they are a capable team despite bad/streaky play. The recent results might lead to a deceptively low NCAAT seeding, and I'll be cheering for Hurley and his seniors to lay it on the line for an "upset" or two (possibly the last game in URI uniforms for players and coach).

I saw the Rhody / SJU embarrassment, and I would like another look at them in the A-10 semis or finals. I saw a guard-dominated team that was stone-cold from 3, and really couldn't get anything going inside - they missed from everywhere. I kept waiting for them to turn up the pressure, and when they did, St Joseph's handled it without too much difficulty. I think your assessment is pretty good. (in other words, it lines up with mine!) :cool:

Am I worried about them from a Duke point of view? No, I don't think their guards will go off, and their pressure shouldn't be a problem. They shouldn't get anything inside, or stop Bagley and Carter.

[kmspeaks]

Jay Bilas said last night that the tournament should be seeded without accounting for the conference tournaments (because the opportunity for the major conference teams to get wins against highly regarded teams and therefore work their way into the tournament was unfair. This is the dumbest thing I've ever heard Jay say. No really. The most dangerous team in the tournament -- and the team I don't want to play -- is the major conference team on a big run. South Carolina last year is a great example. So I don't want to be seeded to catch a team in the second or third round which showed up unexpectedly in the ACC, Big 12, 10, Pac whatever tournament championship game. They typically have competitive talent, a winning formula, lot's of confidence, and the relaxed aggression of a group with nothing to lose because they are playing with house money. Give me UNC or Kansas and you knock them back a couple of times and they may fold (I thought UNC oddly concluded they could not win last night a little early). The major conference team unexpectedly wining games this time of year isn't surprised or discouraged by anything.


I don't think it is dumb at all. It puts team from outside of power conferences at a major disadvantage. ND gets hot for a week and suddenly they get more consideration than a conference champion from a smaller conference? Smaller conferences already have to struggle with SOS disadvantages. Why reward 2nd tier power conference teams with a second bite at the apple. ND and teams like them should be done unless they win the conference tournament.

Well the power conference teams also get more chances at quality wins during the season since they play in a power conference so let's decide the bids after the non-conference season. Except the power conference teams usually get to play more home games which makes it harder on the little guys to get a win so let's just let Jay Bilas pick the field in November and call it a day. He's smarter than all of us anyway.

[BigWayne]

Well the power conference teams also get more chances at quality wins during the season since they play in a power conference so let's decide the bids after the non-conference season. Except the power conference teams usually get to play more home games which makes it harder on the little guys to get a win so let's just let Jay Bilas pick the field in November and call it a day. He's smarter than all of us anyway.

Yep. Life is not fair.

If you really want to make it "fair," you do it like the hoosiers and put every team in the tournament.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well the power conference teams also get more chances at quality wins during the season since they play in a power conference so let's decide the bids after the non-conference season. Except the power conference teams usually get to play more home games which makes it harder on the little guys to get a win so let's just let Jay Bilas pick the field in November and call it a day. He's smarter than all of us anyway.

Thanks for articulating my bafflement about this as well. If you play better teams and win, you are a better team. If your conference is full of good teams, you get rewarded.

Not sure how this isn't fair - it is why teams clamor to get in higher profile, more talented conferences.

[duke2x]

I'll give you one completely off the radar team: UNC-G. They have beaten NCSU and UNC (secret scrimmage, but they still beat them). It's rare that a SoCon team deserves a 12-13 seed. I fear a little bit that they might underseed them to keep them local--guess who would play them as a 15 seed? That would bring out extra UNC faithful to downtown Charlotte even though their team will be in Nashville. Wes Miller has done a good job with that team and will likely move up to at least a good midmajor job next year.

[CDu]

I'll give you one completely off the radar team: UNC-G. They have beaten NCSU and UNC (secret scrimmage, but they still beat them). It's rare that a SoCon team deserves a 12-13 seed. I fear a little bit that they might underseed them to keep them local--guess who would play them as a 15 seed? That would bring out extra UNC faithful to downtown Charlotte even though their team will be in Nashville. Wes Miller has done a good job with that team and will likely move up to at least a good midmajor job next year.

I can’t see the committee bumping UNC-G (currently RPI #65) down to a 15.

[UrinalCake]

For everyone freaking out over having to play Bonzie, I looked up his career stats against Duke. Here are the game stats:

1/28/15 8pts (3/5FG), 3rb
2/7/15 8pts (4/5), 4rb
3/13/15 17pts (5/9), 5rb
1/16/16 31pts (12/19), 11rb
3/10/16 12pts (5/8), 12rb
1/30/17 17pts (8/12), 9rb
3/11/17 29pts (12/21), 9rb

So yeah, he killed us in Cameron in Jan 2016 and he had a great game in the ACCT final last year (which we won). But otherwise he looks like a really solid player. He's not the bastard love child of LeBron and Jordan. And we are much better equipped to handle him this year with the zone defense. We don't have to have our 5 man guarding him behind the three point line, and we can make him work on defense with our own dominant bigs.

[gocanes0506]

South Dakota St looks very solid. Has veteran leadership, a possible NBA talent junior, long, and have a very quick freshmen PG. the could shock a 4 or 5 seed in the first round. Duke’s athletic front court would be really tough for the jack rabbits to handle but they would be very competitive in the game.

[cptnflash]

Who I do not want to see - egregiously underseeded teams anywhere in our path to the final four.

Who I do want to see - a weak #1 seed in our bracket. I’m looking at you, Xavier.

[elvis14]

For everyone freaking out over having to play Bonzie, I looked up his career stats against Duke. Here are the game stats:

1/28/15 8pts (3/5FG), 3rb
2/7/15 8pts (4/5), 4rb
3/13/15 17pts (5/9), 5rb
1/16/16 31pts (12/19), 11rb
3/10/16 12pts (5/8), 12rb
1/30/17 17pts (8/12), 9rb
3/11/17 29pts (12/21), 9rb

So yeah, he killed us in Cameron in Jan 2016 and he had a great game in the ACCT final last year (which we won). But otherwise he looks like a really solid player. He's not the bastard love child of LeBron and Jordan. And we are much better equipped to handle him this year with the zone defense. We don't have to have our 5 man guarding him behind the three point line, and we can make him work on defense with our own dominant bigs.

Further proof that stats don't tell the whole story (although they are a nice tool for secondary data). Sometimes it's not how much you score but when and how.

[ndkjr70]

My dad, an alum, asked me two difficult "would you rather" questions. Thought this was an appropriate thread to ask them; since it's directly related to the question.

Would you rather: be the first (1) seed to lose to a (16) seed OR lose to UNC in the national championship game by 30 points?

Would you rather: beat UNC in the national championship game by 30 points, or beat UNC national championship game by a miracle (Laettnar-esque) buzzer beater?

[Bluedog]

My dad, an alum, asked me two difficult "would you rather" questions. Thought this was an appropriate thread to ask them; since it's directly related to the question.

Would you rather: be the first (1) seed to lose to a (16) seed OR lose to UNC in the national championship game by 30 points?

Would you rather: beat UNC in the national championship game by 30 points, or beat UNC national championship game by a miracle (Laettnar-esque) buzzer beater?

My preferences:
*First 1 seed to lost to a 16 (would be painful, but losing to UNC in the championship is extra painful)
*Beat UNC in championship by 30 (want to always stomp and embarass those fools. 82-50 was a joy. Miracle shots are fun (a la Rivers) but I'd rather dominate)

[sammy3469]

In general, defensive teams. I'm convinced now that if we lose in the NCAAT, it'll be in a game where the opposing D smothers our offense worse than our zone can smother theirs.

One notable exception is Villanova, an offensive team (but hopefully that matchup would only occur in the Final Four, anyway). Not only do they have a historical offensive efficiency, they have players who can hit 2-pt jumpers well (https://hoop-math.com/Villanova2018.php). Brunson, for example, is shooting them at 53%! 2-pt jumpers are pretty much what our zone is hoping to achieve, and 99% of teams won't hurt us with them.

I'd also point out that being the #1 seed in the West may not be a great position either as it looks like you may end up with Arizona and Gonzaga as 4/5s and then have a 50-50 shot of Creighton being the 8/9 seed (as of today). All three of those teams are fairly proficient 2 point jump shooting teams. Then you're likely to get either MI ST or Purdue as the 2 seed and again both those teams are OK 2 point jump shooting teams.


One other team I want no part of is St Mary's since Jock Landale shoots extremely well for a 6'11" guy.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My preferences:
*First 1 seed to lost to a 16 (would be painful, but losing to UNC in the championship is extra painful)
*Beat UNC in championship by 30 (want to always stomp and embarass those fools. 82-50 was a joy. Miracle shots are fun (a la Rivers) but I'd rather dominate)

These are the correct answers.

[OldPhiKap]

My preferences:
*First 1 seed to lost to a 16 (would be painful, but losing to UNC in the championship is extra painful)
*Beat UNC in championship by 30 (want to always stomp and embarass those fools. 82-50 was a joy. Miracle shots are fun (a la Rivers) but I'd rather dominate)

This.

[Rich]

My preferences:
*Beat UNC in championship by 30 (want to always stomp and embarass those fools. 82-50 was a joy. Miracle shots are fun (a la Rivers) but I'd rather dominate)


These are the correct answers.

Agreed. The problem with a buzzer beater is that the loser can always point to a bad call or two and have some solace that they "should" have won. A blowout removes all doubt.

[camion]

My preferences:
*First 1 seed to lost to a 16 (would be painful, but losing to UNC in the championship is extra painful)
*Beat UNC in championship by 30 (want to always stomp and embarass those fools. 82-50 was a joy. Miracle shots are fun (a la Rivers) but I'd rather dominate)

Yup.

That was easy.

[House G]

The ACC has always had a reputation as more of a finesse league. Possibly supporting this notion is the number of teams on the first page of this list (# fouls/gm):
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/286/p1
I had the opportunity to watch a couple of teams play yesterday that rank #325 and #329—Houston and West Virginia. I believe both of these teams send out waves of players and try to beat you to death, daring the zebras to call all of the fouls. I believe it was Gray (Houston) that reached in and grabbed the arm of the Wichita State player with the ball with 9 seconds to go. If a call is made, WSU very well may have won the game. And the WVU press is brutal. In the Tenn-Ark game, Tenn had a huge lead at halftime. Arkansas went into their full-court press/slap/reach-in/hack and almost got back in the game.
Given our propensity to turn the ball over in the ACC, I’m not sure I want to see some of these teams.

[jipops]

I don't think it matters. Any team placed in the field is capable of taking us out. I'm fully expecting game 1 to be a rough one to watch, no matter who it is. It's questionable how healthy we are going in and the team isn't riding some wave of momentum right now.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Let's not get Oklahoma.

[duke4ever19]

Let's not get Oklahoma.

I feel the complete opposite. I get the whole 'savvy point guard' angle, but Oklahoma is simply not a good basketball team. They just dropped 8 of their last 10 games and 6-12 in their last 18. I watched the majority of those games and I was thoroughly unimpressed. I have zero doubt Duke would trounce that team. In fact, I hope they make the field and we get them.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I feel the complete opposite. I get the whole 'savvy point guard' angle, but Oklahoma is simply not a good basketball team. They just dropped 8 of their last 10 games and 6-12 in their last 18. I watched the majority of those games and I was thoroughly unimpressed. I have zero doubt Duke would trounce that team. In fact, I hope they make the field and we get them.

...and I'd say our zone, not extended, would frustrate that Trae Young to no end. We can't stay in front of him M2M, and don't think we could press him, but I think our zone would stop him.

[richardjackson199]

7/10 Seeds we most don't want to see in Nashville:

Alabama, Arkansas, TCU, Texas A & M, and Missouri in no particular order.

[SavDukeGrad]

1. Teams that seem to be peaking now - for example Arizona.
2. Teams that we have already played and beaten - i.e. Michigan State. I think it is harder to beat someone twice and it gives them extra motivation.
3. Teams that press and play very physically - like West Virginia. We have had trouble with real physical play in the past, and I don't won't to leave our fate up to the refs.

[richardjackson199]

1. Teams that seem to be peaking now - for example Arizona.
2. Teams that we have already played and beaten - i.e. Michigan State. I think it is harder to beat someone twice and it gives them extra motivation.
3. Teams that press and play very physically - like West Virginia. We have had trouble with real physical play in the past, and I don't won't to leave our fate up to the refs.

I agree with your point #1 whole-heartedly. I don't want Arizona but wouldn't be surprised at all to see committee set up Bagley vs. Ayton 2-seed vs 3-seed matchup.

I get your point #3, but I wouldn't mind West Virginia because if we play a 4 seed that means they knocked off a 1 seed, and that isn't the worst elite 8 matchup with chance to make final 4 compared to having to play a 1 seed.

[Bluedog]

I agree with your point #1 whole-heartedly. I don't want Arizona but wouldn't be surprised at all to see committee set up Bagley vs. Ayton 2-seed vs 3-seed matchup.

I get your point #3, but I wouldn't mind West Virginia because if we play a 4 seed that means they knocked off a 1 seed, and that isn't the worst elite 8 matchup with chance to make final 4 compared to having to play a 1 seed.

Some are projecting WVU as a three seed. I guess we'll find out shortly...

I'm guessing we're two in the MW.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I feel the complete opposite. I get the whole 'savvy point guard' angle, but Oklahoma is simply not a good basketball team. They just dropped 8 of their last 10 games and 6-12 in their last 18. I watched the majority of those games and I was thoroughly unimpressed. I have zero doubt Duke would trounce that team. In fact, I hope they make the field and we get them.

Double reverse jinx?

[dudog84]

Crap. I was going to say Iona.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I was thinking Oklahoma and Michigan State.....darned if we didn't get 'em both!

[jv001]

I was thinking Oklahoma and Michigan State....darned if we didn't get 'em both!

Kenny "uncheat blue" Smith thinks Oklahoma will give Duke a fit because of Young. He even mentioned Duval better be ready to guard Young. I guess Kenny hasn't heard that Duke plays mostly zone. I can't stand to hear that guy. GoDuke!

[throatybeard]

UNC-Chapel Hill.

I would not like them
here or there.
I would not like them
Anywhere.

Not in a box.
Not with Rick Fox.
Not in a house.
Not with The Mouse.

I would not,
Could not.
With a goat!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Kenny "uncheat blue" Smith thinks Oklahoma will give Duke a fit because of Young. He even mentioned Duval better be ready to guard Young. I guess Kenny hasn't heard that Duke plays mostly zone. I can't stand to hear that guy. GoDuke!

Yeah, I heard ole Kenny say that. I love to hear Charles razz Kenny when we beat them.

As for Oklahoma, I certainly think Trae Young is awesome, but it's not him per se that bothers me the most....it's that those guys are gonna hear all this week how they didn't deserve to get in, etc. Whenever a team gets a full week of national attention like that, they usually end up playing like world beaters. Oklahoma is not nearly as good as Duke, but their players are still elite athletes, and you know they're gonna play the "dis"card.

[jv001]

Yeah, I heard ole Kenny say that. I love to hear Charles razz Kenny when we beat them.

As for Oklahoma, I certainly think Trae Young is awesome, but it's not him per se that bothers me the most...it's that those guys are gonna hear all this week how they didn't deserve to get in, etc. Whenever a team gets a full week of national attention like that, they usually end up playing like world beaters. Oklahoma is not nearly as good as Duke, but their players are still elite athletes, and you know they're gonna play the "dis"card.

I agree the committee did not do us a favor with our half of the bracket and placing us with a pretty good chance of meeting a Sooner team that has nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating Duke. Young seems to be an awesome talent with pretty good size for a guard. I'm certainly rooting for RI even thought their uniforms are the 2nd ugliest in sports. You know who's first. GoDuke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I agree the committee did not do us a favor with our half of the bracket and placing us with a pretty good chance of meeting a Sooner team that has nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating Duke. Young seems to be an awesome talent with pretty good size for a guard. I'm certainly rooting for RI even thought their uniforms are the 2nd ugliest in sports. You know who's first. GoDuke!

Funny thing is, we've played Rhody twice in the NCAAs that I know of...78 and 88...and beat em by only one point both times. I can't take that kind of stress this year in the second round...from either Trae and the gang or Rhody.

[jv001]

Funny thing is, we've played Rhody twice in the NCAAs that I know of...78 and 88...and beat em by only one point both times. I can't take that kind of stress this year in the second round...from either Trae and the gang or Rhody.

Now that my first wish came true(not playing in the same venue with the cheats), I don't want to play a team that presses and causes lots of turnovers and RI is top ten at forcing turnovers. Well, that's what my bracket buster says. :cool: GoDuke!