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View Full Version : 2018 NBA Draft (and how many OADs will we have this year)



SilkyJ
03-04-2018, 10:37 AM
ESPN Posted a good article looking at the top NBA prospects in the Duke vs UNC game. Link here (http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/22642170/scouting-marvin-bagley-wendell-carter-best-nba-draft-prospects-duke-unc).

Its an insider article, but don't stop reading just yet. I think the most interesting part is actually where they rank several of our freshman in their top 100, which is public here. (http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/21307077/nba-draft-rankings-espn-top-100-prospects-2018) They have Trevon #40 and Gary #52.

Accordingly, in their Mock Draft (http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/22506994/2018-nba-mock-draft-trae-young-luka-doncic-top-prospects) they have Trevon going in the mid-2nd round and Gary not drafted. This is in stark contrast to NBAdraft.net (http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft), which has both of those guys going in the first round (21st and 15th, respectively). And NBAdraft.net is not outdated, its from late Feb.

The gap on Gary is tremendous -- 15th overall vs 52nd & undrafted is huge disparity. For the NBA gurus here, are there other pockets of scouting info or draft projections out there on these two players? Its hard to imagine both coming back next year, but its also hard to imagine both leaving to become late 2nd round picks. If either came back next year it could be a real lift for the team, though Gary would seem to fit more seamlessly than Trevon given Tre Jones' impending arrival.

(Mods- I know these things have been discussed in other threads, but I didn't see a 2018 NBA draft thread. If there is one that I missed feel free to consolidate.)

SilkyJ
03-04-2018, 10:47 AM
BTW- the other interesting piece, IMO, in that Insider article is that after discussing the obvious candidates (Bagley, Carter, Grayson, Trent, Duval), the other Duke player they discussed was Alex O'Connell as a potential NBA player down the road. They did not mention Marques...

ncexnyc
03-04-2018, 11:02 AM
For Trevon the issues are decision making and shooting, both are things he could work on with another year at Duke, but also things he could work on while getting paid in the NBA. With PG's being few and far between in this year's draft I don't see him staying.

Gary is one of those kids who has that nice shooting touch, but does he have true NBA skills from a physical stand point? Would he get bigger or faster with another year at Duke? I think we're looking at another Frank Jackson type situation here. What he hears at the combine will determine whether he stays or goes.

SilkyJ
03-04-2018, 11:17 AM
For Trevon the issues are decision making and shooting, both are things he could work on with another year at Duke, but also things he could work on while getting paid in the NBA. With PG's being few and far between in this year's draft I don't see him staying.

Yea, but that's kind of the point. What if he's not getting paid in the NBA gets drafted in the 2nd round, doesn't make a team and is playing in the G League?



Gary is one of those kids who has that nice shooting touch, but does he have true NBA skills from a physical stand point? Would he get bigger or faster with another year at Duke? I think we're looking at another Frank Jackson type situation here. What he hears at the combine will determine whether he stays or goes.

Well of course what they hear at the combine will influence their decisions. The questions is where do they stand--are they first round picks or at least a lock to get drafted (as NBAdraft.net would suggest), or could they potentially be drafted late 2nd round and potentially be in the G league or overseas all year (as ESPN would suggest)? For two top 10 RSCI guys, I think its a bit of a surprise that this is even a conversation...

dukelifer
03-04-2018, 11:27 AM
Yea, but that's kind of the point. What if he's not getting paid in the NBA gets drafted in the 2nd round, doesn't make a team and is playing in the G League?



Well of course what they hear at the combine will influence their decisions. The questions is where do they stand--are they first round picks or at least a lock to get drafted (as NBAdraft.net would suggest), or could they potentially be drafted late 2nd round and potentially be in the G league or overseas all year (as ESPN would suggest)? For two top 10 RSCI guys, I think its a bit of a surprise that this is even a conversation...

As the NBA is all about potential-and as strange as it sounds- yesterday's game may have been enough to keep Trevon in the first round. Getting paid is one thing- and flaming out is another. The NBA is pretty brutal on players. At Duval's size you have to be elite in some category and now you have to be able to shoot the ball. I cannot say how Duval will do as the NBA is a different game- and it does play to his strengths. But his shooting is an issue and he has much to learn about finishing around the rim. The pt guard position at his size is not easy and he will need to work very hard on his game.

Dukehky
03-04-2018, 11:31 AM
I think Duval would be spectacular next year if he stayed, but he won't, which is fine.

I'm not sure what his position would be next year, because I don't think he's better than Tre, and he can't play off the ball because he can't shoot. In one of the post game videos from last night, he pretty much said that it was his last game in Cameron. Wendell definitely said it.

The only question is Trent. He'll declare and go get feedback. He'll make whatever decision he thinks is best for him, but he won't face the Kennard issue of having his stock never being higher. I think with some improved ball handling and more consistency, he's definitely a first round pick either next year or the year after.

dukelifer
03-04-2018, 11:32 AM
BTW- the other interesting piece, IMO, in that Insider article is that after discussing the obvious candidates (Bagley, Carter, Grayson, Trent, Duval), the other Duke player they discussed was Alex O'Connell as a potential NBA player down the road. They did not mention Marques...

Bolden needs to become a better rebounder- he has grown a ton this year and he needs to develop his mid range shooting to have a shot. The NBA want bigs that can be threats. He is very long and big- but not very explosive- but even there he is getting better. He is right now a possible second rounder with potential . I am looking forward to seeing O'Connell develop. I hope Bolden sticks around. I think he could have a big year next year

flyingdutchdevil
03-04-2018, 11:34 AM
Duval has better than average PG size, better than average PG athleticism, and better than average PG speed. He is a really good passer, but very inconsistent.

His shot is the big question mark. And I think thatís really it. The question GMs need to ask is whether Duval can be an okay shooter and hit ~35% of his 3s. Itís a big Ďifí, but Iím betting money on him if heís available after pick 25.

SilkyJ
03-04-2018, 12:14 PM
Duval has better than average PG size, better than average PG athleticism, and better than average PG speed. He is a really good passer, but very inconsistent.

His shot is the big question mark. And I think thatís really it. The question GMs need to ask is whether Duval can be an okay shooter and hit ~35% of his 3s. Itís a big Ďifí, but Iím betting money on him if heís available after pick 25.

Yep, that's fair. I would probably take that bet in the 2nd round as well. Is that enough for Duval to jump? My guess is yes.

So whither Gary? If he get's 2nd round vibes as well, and let's say they are weaker than Frank's (Frank was told he'd go very high in the 2nd, potentially before that) does he come back?

flyingdutchdevil
03-04-2018, 12:22 PM
Yep, that's fair. I would probably take that bet in the 2nd round as well. Is that enough for Duval to jump? My guess is yes.

So whither Gary? If he get's 2nd round vibes as well, and let's say they are weaker than Frank's (Frank was told he'd go very high in the 2nd, potentially before that) does he come back?

Gary is interesting. Really Good three point shooter, but heís only a catch-and-shoot player right now. Heís shown a solid mid-range game. His ability to drive isnít there, nor is his shooting off the dribble.

Defensively, heís okay, but not elite.

What works in Trentís favor is his position. Heís a pure 2, a rare commodity in the NBA.

My guess is, with everyone else leaving, he goes as well, first round, second round, or undrafted.

kAzE
03-04-2018, 12:25 PM
I'm so sad that Givony and Schmitz (both formerly from DraftExpress) are with the evil empire now. Unfortunately for Trevon and Gary, their rankings have historically been way more accurate than the rankings over at NBADraft.net

Ian
03-04-2018, 12:36 PM
Givony has been asked a couple of weeks ago why he didn't have Gary in the draft at all and his response was that he expects Gary to be in 2019 draft.

pamtar
03-04-2018, 12:38 PM
Gary is interesting. Really Good three point shooter, but he’s only a catch-and-shoot player right now. He’s shown a solid mid-range game. His ability to drive isn’t there, nor is his shooting off the dribble.

Defensively, he’s okay, but not elite.

What works in Trent’s favor is his position. He’s a pure 2, a rare commodity in the NBA.

My guess is, with everyone else leaving, he goes as well, first round, second round, or undrafted.

I think Trent’s ability to create has improved a lot over the past two months. He has that drive and pull up mid range that you mentioned but has also started making space for himself off the bounce. His step back jumper is coming around nicely and his first step has gotten a hair quicker. His only major flaw IMO is his complete inability to finish at the rim. Other than that he’s probably the most complete freshman on the team after Wendell.

If I was drafting on potential I would put him in the first round. A couple more years in the weight room and practicing with world class players will really help. I could see him becoming a JJ type role player with a few extra tricks in his bag.

Dukehky
03-04-2018, 12:51 PM
I think Trent’s ability to create has improved a lot over the past two months. He has that drive and pull up mid range that you mentioned but has also started making space for himself off the bounce. His step back jumper is coming around nicely and his first step has gotten a hair quicker. His only major flaw IMO is his complete inability to finish at the rim. Other than that he’s probably the most complete freshman on the team after Wendell.

If I was drafting on potential I would put him in the first round. A couple more years in the weight room and practicing with world class players will really help. I could see him becoming a JJ type role player with a few extra tricks in his bag.

You want Gary in the weight room more!? He's got an NBA body already and is thicker than every 2 guard in the league. His deficiencies are, unfortunately things that are really hard to improve, that being speed and leaping ability. His ball handling has to tighten up A LOT as well. He [I]could[I] be a JJ type player, except JJ is in a different universe as a shooter, especially considering that Gary can't come off curls and make shots (yet), he has to be set when he catches it, he can't get set while catching it (if you (in general, not you in particular pamtar) watch JJ highlights, you'll know what I'm talking about there).

He's gonna be a pro at some point. He could probably get a 2 way deal next year. He can damn sure make corner 3's which is an elite skill set, but he will get abused on defense. I guess that's likely not going to change, so maybe go make your money.

2019 isn't a particularly strong draft class, but if he wants to go be a pro, more power to him. His return would really help next year's team because it would give us someone who has been around who can get buckets. Javin, Ques, Jack, and AOC don't necessarily fit that bill.

dukelifer
03-04-2018, 01:09 PM
Duval has better than average PG size, better than average PG athleticism, and better than average PG speed. He is a really good passer, but very inconsistent.

His shot is the big question mark. And I think thatís really it. The question GMs need to ask is whether Duval can be an okay shooter and hit ~35% of his 3s. Itís a big Ďifí, but Iím betting money on him if heís available after pick 25.

Yes- but shooting is a key to surviving in the NBA. He can hit a standstill shot but he has to hit a pullup three pointer and I have not seen him do that all year- at least with any consistency. He has to hit a floater in traffic and finish among the bigs. He has the body and athleticism but the next level is much tougher. Shooting and quick decision making matters. Yesterday he played without thinking- perhaps he has turned a corner. As with most players- when the game slows down it is much easier. This may be happening for him. But when he goes to the NBA- it will be even faster. But shooting is still something he will need to devote himself to over the next few years.

ndkjr70
03-04-2018, 01:16 PM
Thinking of next yearís team with a sophomore Gary Trent and a junior Marques Bolden is making me feel all hot and bothered.

MCFinARL
03-04-2018, 01:31 PM
Bolden needs to become a better rebounder- he has grown a ton this year and he needs to develop his mid range shooting to have a shot. The NBA want bigs that can be threats. He is very long and big- but not very explosive- but even there he is getting better. He is right now a possible second rounder with potential . I am looking forward to seeing O'Connell develop. I hope Bolden sticks around. I think he could have a big year next year

Bolden has had an interesting college career path, to say the least, and doubtless not what he originally expected. What I see him doing now, though, should work out well for him in the long run: he appears to be working hard to improve the parts of his came that will be most valuable at the next level--rebounding, shot blocking, setting picks, developing a variety of close-in shots, working in the team concept. Possibly being on a team with the combined big-guy star power of Bagley and Carter has helped him to see that to get on the court he needs to figure out his role and do the best he can at it--which may be his best path forward.

JasonEvans
03-04-2018, 02:08 PM
His only major flaw IMO is his complete inability to finish at the rim. Other than that he’s probably the most complete freshman on the team after Wendell.

I want to be clear that I like Gary Trent a lot and think he is a really special player...

But to say that he may be the most complete freshman on this team after Wendell is laughable because his D needs a TON of work, his ballhandling is poor for a guard, and (as you mention) he's not good finishing in traffic. I mean, both Duval and Wendell have issues on D as well (tho the zone has helped Duval's D immensely), but I would not describe Trent as being significantly ahead of either of those guys in terms of having a "complete" game.

I suspect that what happens in the post-season will make a huge impact on Trent's decision about the NBA. If he shoots the way he was shooting in January, his stock will be high and he will probably jump. But, if he continues to struggle a bit with his shot, we very well may see him back at Duke. Remember that his family has plenty of money and his dad will be able to get a good read on things from his contacts in the NBA. It is also worth noting that Trent may want to wait to see what happens with the OAD rule. It is possible that a change could result in an unusually weak draft in 2019 or 2020 that he may want to take advantage of.

-Jason "I'd say there is at least a 50% chance Trent comes back... all the other starting freshmen are 100% gone" Evans

YmoBeThere
03-04-2018, 02:09 PM
With two guys 6-7 and between 200 and 215 lbs. coming in next year, won't that pressure Gary Trent Jr.'s playing time if he were to stay?

CDu
03-04-2018, 02:16 PM
With two guys 6-7 and between 200 and 215 lbs. coming in next year, won't that pressure Gary Trent Jr.'s playing time if he were to stay?

Trent would certainly still play a LOT next year either way. He may or may not start, but he'd play a lot. I'd expect a heavy rotation of Reddish, Barrett, and Trent at the 2 and 3, with some time at the 1 and 4 sprinkled in whenever Jones and Williamson sit).

A Trent return would probably all but eliminate O'Connell's minutes, and would put a crimp into either DeLaurier's or Bolden's minutes. But Trent would still play ~25-30 minutes next year.

DukieInBrasil
03-04-2018, 04:07 PM
You want Gary in the weight room more!? He's got an NBA body already and is thicker than every 2 guard in the league. His deficiencies are, unfortunately things that are really hard to improve, that being speed and leaping ability. His ball handling has to tighten up A LOT as well. He [I]could[I] be a JJ type player, except JJ is in a different universe as a shooter, especially considering that Gary can't come off curls and make shots (yet), he has to be set when he catches it, he can't get set while catching it (if you (in general, not you in particular pamtar) watch JJ highlights, you'll know what I'm talking about there).

He's gonna be a pro at some point. He could probably get a 2 way deal next year. He can damn sure make corner 3's which is an elite skill set, but he will get abused on defense. I guess that's likely not going to change, so maybe go make your money.

2019 isn't a particularly strong draft class, but if he wants to go be a pro, more power to him. His return would really help next year's team because it would give us someone who has been around who can get buckets. Javin, Ques, Jack, and AOC don't necessarily fit that bill.

you left out Antonio Vrankovic and J-Rob, as well as J-Gold and Mike Buckmire. None of those four is likely to be a major contributor next year, but let's not forget about them entirely.

dukelifer
03-04-2018, 05:43 PM
I want to be clear that I like Gary Trent a lot and think he is a really special player...

But to say that he may be the most complete freshman on this team after Wendell is laughable because his D needs a TON of work, his ballhandling is poor for a guard, and (as you mention) he's not good finishing in traffic. I mean, both Duval and Wendell have issues on D as well (tho the zone has helped Duval's D immensely), but I would not describe Trent as being significantly ahead of either of those guys in terms of having a "complete" game.

I suspect that what happens in the post-season will make a huge impact on Trent's decision about the NBA. If he shoots the way he was shooting in January, his stock will be high and he will probably jump. But, if he continues to struggle a bit with his shot, we very well may see him back at Duke. Remember that his family has plenty of money and his dad will be able to get a good read on things from his contacts in the NBA. It is also worth noting that Trent may want to wait to see what happens with the OAD rule. It is possible that a change could result in an unusually weak draft in 2019 or 2020 that he may want to take advantage of.

-Jason "I'd say there is at least a 50% chance Trent comes back... all the other starting freshmen are 100% gone" Evans

Carter is going to be a very good pro- he could develop into an all star at some point but if not a player with a long career. I have commented on Trevon in other posts but if he can learn to shoot - he can play at the next level. His mechanics arenít awful but he has work to do. Bagley is an interesting player. His most notable skills are nice touch around the hoop and a freakish ability to jump fast. But he is not great going right, his handle is not strong in traffic and he is not a great shooter from most spots other than the top of the key. But that skill set allows him to dominate in college. Whether it will translate remains to be seen. All that said- all three players are likely to go- although I would not be surprised if Carter stays- you never know.

jimsumner
03-04-2018, 05:58 PM
I'd be surprised if Trent returns. But not stunned.

In a Trent-returns-universe, I could easily see Duke starting Reddish, Barrett and Trent, with Reddish as the point. That's likely to be his NBA position and he's been coached with that in mind.

LasVegas
03-04-2018, 06:12 PM
I'd be surprised if Trent returns. But not stunned.

In a Trent-returns-universe, I could easily see Duke starting Reddish, Barrett and Trent, with Reddish as the point. That's likely to be his NBA position and he's been coached with that in mind.

Tre Jones on the bench?

JasonEvans
03-04-2018, 06:19 PM
Tre Jones on the bench?

Coming off the bench for 25 minutes or so... not at all hard to believe. There are 3 backcourt positions -- sometimes 4 if we go small ball. There's easily room for all three of the freshmen plus Trent (if he returns). Probably means O'Connell only gets about 5 minutes per game in close games, but that is not that hard to imagine.

SavDukeGrad
03-04-2018, 06:26 PM
I'd be surprised if Trent returns. But not stunned.

In a Trent-returns-universe, I could easily see Duke starting Reddish, Barrett and Trent, with Reddish as the point. That's likely to be his NBA position and he's been coached with that in mind.

Jim, I always appreciate your take on things. Would you mind sharing your opinions about the top seven (well freshmen plus Bolden)? What do you think the chances are that each will stay or go pro? Thanks so much.

CDu
03-04-2018, 06:29 PM
I'd be surprised if Trent returns. But not stunned.

In a Trent-returns-universe, I could easily see Duke starting Reddish, Barrett and Trent, with Reddish as the point. That's likely to be his NBA position and he's been coached with that in mind.


Tre Jones on the bench?

Yeah, I am not buying the Reddish at PG thoughts. He seems like a really versatile player, but I think his value is as a scorer and Swiss Army knife versatile wing. Not PG. I havenít seen anywhere that projects him as a wing at the next level. Calipari did start him at PG with USAB, but that was due to the absence of a PG.

The PG spot is, as we have seen the last few years, really important. If Trent returns (and I would be pleasantly surprised if he did), I canít picture benching the only true PG on the roster to play a guy out of position.

rocketeli
03-04-2018, 06:43 PM
Carter, Bagley and (of course) Allen are no-brainers to go to the draft this year. There aren't that many people 6' 10" and taller on the planet and ones that play basketball well, even if they have a few warts, are at a premium. (If Amile Jefferson were 3 inches taller he'd be playing in the NBA on first round contract right now.) Duval has great speed and athleticism and does know how to play PG, so some team will take him, figuring they can teach him to shoot, a la Lonzo Ball. I would suspect the smart thing for Gary Trent to do would be to put his name out there and communicate with NBA organizations and find out what his chances are and if 2019 looks more promising, come back to college. If I were Javin Delaurier or Marques Bolden, I would do the same, but mostly for pure informational purposes, and on the off chance that some team might really like them enough to want to lock them up through the draft--unlikely, and I expect both would end up coming back. I don't think anyone from the NBA would be interested in talking to anyone else from Duke at this point.

CDu
03-04-2018, 06:50 PM
Yeah, I am not buying the Reddish at PG thoughts. He seems like a really versatile player, but I think his value is as a scorer and Swiss Army knife versatile wing. Not PG. I havenít seen anywhere that projects him as a wing at the next level. Calipari did start him at PG with USAB, but that was due to the absence of a PG.

The PG spot is, as we have seen the last few years, really important. If Trent returns (and I would be pleasantly surprised if he did), I canít picture benching the only true PG on the roster to play a guy out of position.

And in that hypothetical, I would venture a guess that we would start Jones, Barrett, Trent, Reddish, and Williamson: one PG and four 6í6Ē-6í8Ē versatile guys.

But again, I will be surprised if any of our top four freshmen are back next year, so it is likely moot.

jimsumner
03-04-2018, 06:59 PM
Jim, I always appreciate your take on things. Would you mind sharing your opinions about the top seven (well freshmen plus Bolden)? What do you think the chances are that each will stay or go pro? Thanks so much.

Bagley-100 percent gone
Carter-100 percent gone
Duval-100 percent gone
Trent-80 percent gone
Bolden-30 percent gone

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bolden test the waters, get some productive feedback and come back.

richardjackson199
03-04-2018, 07:07 PM
Bagley-100 percent gone
Carter-100 percent gone
Duval-100 percent gone
Trent-80 percent gone
Bolden-30 percent gone

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bolden test the waters, get some productive feedback and come back.

Thanks! Trent sure looks like he's ready for the NBA game now; to me anyway. Hopefully winning a Natty on his way out makes it an easy decision for him. :cool: And next year's Duke team should be fine in the back-court as long as we stay healthy.

Keeping Bolden and landing Montgomery would be huge (;)).

Neals384
03-04-2018, 07:30 PM
I think Trentís ability to create has improved a lot over the past two months. He has that drive and pull up mid range that you mentioned but has also started making space for himself off the bounce. His step back jumper is coming around nicely and his first step has gotten a hair quicker. His only major flaw IMO is his complete inability to finish at the rim. Other than that heís probably the most complete freshman on the team after Wendell.

If I was drafting on potential I would put him in the first round. A couple more years in the weight room and practicing with world class players will really help. I could see him becoming a JJ type role player with a few extra tricks in his bag.

i would like to see some assists from Trent. On his drives, he dos hit a high percentage of his mid range jumpers. But finding the open man for an even better shot rarely seems to be on his radar.


Bolden has had an interesting college career path, to say the least, and doubtless not what he originally expected. What I see him doing now, though, should work out well for him in the long run: he appears to be working hard to improve the parts of his came that will be most valuable at the next level--rebounding, shot blocking, setting picks, developing a variety of close-in shots, working in the team concept. Possibly being on a team with the combined big-guy star power of Bagley and Carter has helped him to see that to get on the court he needs to figure out his role and do the best he can at it--which may be his best path forward.

I think we are starting to see some signs of awakening of Bolden the Beast. Tough, agressive, fearless, wanting to dominate at both ends of the court. If he can fully emerge then he may have an NBA career. But he's not there yet.

gam7
03-04-2018, 07:45 PM
Coming off the bench for 25 minutes or so... not at all hard to believe. There are 3 backcourt positions -- sometimes 4 if we go small ball. There's easily room for all three of the freshmen plus Trent (if he returns). Probably means O'Connell only gets about 5 minutes per game in close games, but that is not that hard to imagine.

Agree. If Trent comes back, he will be starting without a doubt and will be a team co-captain (Delaurier the other co-captain). Perhaps not a factor in his NBA decision, but Trent's view of next year's team is somewhat unique (not sure whether it's positive or negative but I'd guess it's positive) because of his relationship with former high school teammate, Tre Jones.

DukieTiger
03-04-2018, 08:33 PM
I'd be surprised if Trent returns. But not stunned.

In a Trent-returns-universe, I could easily see Duke starting Reddish, Barrett and Trent, with Reddish as the point. That's likely to be his NBA position and he's been coached with that in mind.

Whoa whoa whoa, Reddish as an NBA pg? What am I missing here?

I was thinking the same trio would start if GT returned, but that theyíd do so alongside Tre Jones- with Cam at the 4. Am I way off on my perception of him as a player?

jimsumner
03-04-2018, 09:27 PM
Whoa whoa whoa, Reddish as an NBA pg? What am I missing here?

I was thinking the same trio would start if GT returned, but that they’d do so alongside Tre Jones- with Cam at the 4. Am I way off on my perception of him as a player?

Where would Williamson play in this scenario? He's not an ACC five.

Reddish has played the point in high school, AAU and team USA ball. Not exclusively. But a lot.

I understand why people project Reddish as a 4. And he can certainly play the position at Duke, as did Ingram, Tatum, Winslow, et. al.

But that's not the best use of his considerable talents, which include vision, ball-handling and playmaking.

And Duke has better options inside.

I'm reasonably certain this is a moot-court discussion. Jones, Reddish and Barrett should make a very nice perimeter trio, with Williamson at the 4 and one of Bolden, DeLaurier, maybe Montgomery at the 5.

And AOC gets some burn backing up all three perimeter starters. And Reddish would likely play the point whenever Jones sits.

Dukehky
03-04-2018, 10:08 PM
Coming off the bench for 25 minutes or so... not at all hard to believe. There are 3 backcourt positions -- sometimes 4 if we go small ball. There's easily room for all three of the freshmen plus Trent (if he returns). Probably means O'Connell only gets about 5 minutes per game in close games, but that is not that hard to imagine.

Tre off the bench!? There is no way. That kid is the starting point guard.

I actually think if Trent comes back, it would be Tre, Trent, Barrett, Reddish, and Bolden to start the year with Zion coming off the bench. His role in the college game is going to be weird and will probably take some adjusting.

Trent, I believe, would lead that team in scoring (he averages 14.3 this year, it's not wild to think he scores 3 more a game next year with more drive and dish guys on the team).

It would be a good problem to have, but while I think next years recruits definitely push Duval out the door (not that he needed the nudge), I don't think Gary would be harmed, it would be the front court where things would get a little wild. Reddish is gonna be our stretch 4 that we've so often had until and unless Zion and Bolden prove themselves indispensable, which I'm not sure about.

Furniture
03-04-2018, 10:12 PM
Bagley-100 percent gone
Carter-100 percent gone
Duval-100 percent gone
Trent-80 percent gone
Bolden-30 percent gone

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bolden test the waters, get some productive feedback and come back.

If Duke has a really memorable post season I think that would also factor into a Bolden move.

InSpades
03-05-2018, 02:25 AM
Selfishly... I'd love to see Gary back next year. I could see him having a Luke Kennard type sophomore year (w/ a little more defense). Who starts... who plays where? Who cares. They'd all get their minutes and their points. It would be nice to have a sure fire knockdown shooter in that lineup.

Trevon is an interesting one. It seems like he's gone and I understand it. He probably was always thinking "1 and done". Coming back... he could improve his decision making and his shooting. Or he can leave now and let them wonder if he will do that. If he comes back and doesn't improve... his draft stock takes a big hit. Plus there's a very real risk that he comes back and doesn't start.

Bags and Carter are gone. Good luck at the next level fellas!

Bolden should come back... he's improved but there's still work. If he can go then that's great but I don't expect it.

Next year should be a very fun team to watch.

jv001
03-05-2018, 05:54 AM
I hope that we win the NCAAT and all of: Trevon, Gary, Wendell, Marvin and of course Grayson have fantastic games. Those freshmen named and Grayson go to the NBA. It's their life long dream(at least I think it is), and this would be a good send off. That's the prayer this old Duke fan has anyway. GoDuke!

SkyBrickey
03-05-2018, 06:44 AM
Tre off the bench!? There is no way. That kid is the starting point guard.

I actually think if Trent comes back, it would be Tre, Trent, Barrett, Reddish, and Bolden to start the year with Zion coming off the bench. His role in the college game is going to be weird and will probably take some adjusting.

Trent, I believe, would lead that team in scoring (he averages 14.3 this year, it's not wild to think he scores 3 more a game next year with more drive and dish guys on the team).

It would be a good problem to have, but while I think next years recruits definitely push Duval out the door (not that he needed the nudge), I don't think Gary would be harmed, it would be the front court where things would get a little wild. Reddish is gonna be our stretch 4 that we've so often had until and unless Zion and Bolden prove themselves indispensable, which I'm not sure about.


I agree with your post, but I'd be shocked if RJ Barrett or Cam Reddish don't lead this team in scoring. I watched RJ playing on the Canadian team single-handedly dominate Calipari's US team - that kid is a big-time scorer.

CDu
03-05-2018, 07:50 AM
I agree with your post, but I'd be shocked if RJ Barrett or Cam Reddish don't lead this team in scoring. I watched RJ playing on the Canadian team single-handedly dominate Calipari's US team - that kid is a big-time scorer.

Yep. As is Reddish. Next year's team shouldn't lack for wing scorers, that's for sure.

flyingdutchdevil
03-05-2018, 08:50 AM
Tre off the bench!? There is no way. That kid is the starting point guard.

I actually think if Trent comes back, it would be Tre, Trent, Barrett, Reddish, and Bolden to start the year with Zion coming off the bench. His role in the college game is going to be weird and will probably take some adjusting.

Trent, I believe, would lead that team in scoring (he averages 14.3 this year, it's not wild to think he scores 3 more a game next year with more drive and dish guys on the team).

It would be a good problem to have, but while I think next years recruits definitely push Duval out the door (not that he needed the nudge), I don't think Gary would be harmed, it would be the front court where things would get a little wild. Reddish is gonna be our stretch 4 that we've so often had until and unless Zion and Bolden prove themselves indispensable, which I'm not sure about.

No way does Zion come off the bench. No frickin way.

If Trent comes back, itís tre Trent RJ Cam Zion as the starting 5, with Bolden coming in quick.

Zion will likely be the heaviest dude on the court 9 games out of 10, so including not worried about him guarding 5s. And on offense, heíd be a nightmare.

Sir Stealth
03-05-2018, 09:17 AM
Projecting Trent outside the top 50 at any point pretty much permanently damages the credibility of the ESPN ranking as a source. Trent has shown so much improvement in his game this year from when he was coming out of high school - he clearly puts in a lot of work on his mechanics and it has paid off in his quick shooting release and three point accuracy. He has demonstrated versatility to his offensive game and has the size and strength to be an NBA 2. I would be pretty shocked if he didn't go pro and would bet heavily on him going in the top 20. His contribution this year has been really underrated in my opinion.

CDu
03-05-2018, 09:34 AM
No way does Zion come off the bench. No frickin way.

If Trent comes back, itís tre Trent RJ Cam Zion as the starting 5, with Bolden coming in quick.

Zion will likely be the heaviest dude on the court 9 games out of 10, so including not worried about him guarding 5s. And on offense, heíd be a nightmare.

Yep. Again, I don't think Trent is coming back, so it is probably moot. But if he does, this is almost certainly the starting 5 in my view.

Is Williamson a center? No. Can Williamson guard college centers? Yes. Can college centers guard Williamson? Almost certainly not. It would be a nightmare lineup for the opposition to guard. And if we did run into trouble with taller teams, we'd (hopefully) have two 6'10" guys coming off the bench.

All that said, my way-too-early guess is that the starting lineup next year is Jones, Barrett, Reddish, Williamson, and Bolden, with DeLaurier and O'Connell being the primary backups.

SilkyJ
03-05-2018, 08:53 PM
While 50% of the posts have devolved into 2019 rotation discussions, it seems like the consensus is that Gary is gone and this #50 ranking is way off? I'm not a draft expert, so I really have no idea, but this seems to be the feedback I'm seeing...

Troublemaker
03-05-2018, 10:34 PM
While 50% of the posts have devolved into 2019 rotation discussions, it seems like the consensus is that Gary is gone and this #50 ranking is way off? I'm not a draft expert, so I really have no idea, but this seems to be the feedback I'm seeing...

I think it's mostly that Jim Sumner gave an 80% estimate of gone, and Jim's definitely someone worth paying attention to.


Projecting Trent outside the top 50 at any point pretty much permanently damages the credibility of the ESPN ranking as a source. Trent has shown so much improvement in his game this year from when he was coming out of high school - he clearly puts in a lot of work on his mechanics and it has paid off in his quick shooting release and three point accuracy. He has demonstrated versatility to his offensive game and has the size and strength to be an NBA 2. I would be pretty shocked if he didn't go pro and would bet heavily on him going in the top 20. His contribution this year has been really underrated in my opinion.

I'm with you in spirit but top 20 is high for him, imo. I would take you up on that offer myself but don't want to get too fat on pie and beer; others may come calling, though, and may already have by PM. I'd recommend retreating towards a top-40 stance :-)

Ian
03-05-2018, 11:11 PM
Personally I don't see how Trent is a better NBA prospect than Frank Jackson was a year ago. I think he's a end of the 1st round to 2nd rd pick right now.

Troublemaker
03-29-2018, 07:49 PM
We need a thread to for general NBA draft discussion (e.g. where will Marvin be drafted?) since people reasonably want to keep the "Going Going Gone" thread for announcements only. This thread seems to make sense for that (although maybe a mod can delete the parenthetical in the thread title and just make it "2018 NBA Draft").


Do 6’11 18YOs usually shoot threes better than Bags?

The 58 three-pt attempts in 33 games at 39.7% accuracy for Marvin is nice and better than if he had 0 attempts, but ultimately the 209 free throw attempts at only 62.7% accuracy is going to cast doubt about his outside shooting touch. Ayton shot free throws at 73.3% accuracy, and Jaren Jackson shot them at 79.7% accuracy (which nicely backs up his 39.6% accuracy from three). Both of those guys also have better length than Marvin.

There is no shame if Marvin is the third big off the board. Obviously anyone drafted in the top-10 is a highly-regarded prospect.

MarkD83
03-29-2018, 07:56 PM
Where is the sweet spot in the lottery or first round where a player makes a lot of money and also takes his team from a non-playoff to playoff team. You endear yourselves to the fans and have a good chance at a great 2nd contract.

I know there is great prestige in being the first pick but how many first picks end up playing their whole career on teams that don't make the playoffs or never have a chance to win a title.

Troublemaker
03-29-2018, 08:04 PM
Where is the sweet spot in the lottery or first round where a player makes a lot of money and also takes his team from a non-playoff to playoff team. You endear yourselves to the fans and have a good chance at a great 2nd contract.

I know there is great prestige in being the first pick but how many first picks end up playing their whole career on teams that don't make the playoffs or never have a chance to win a title.

That spot doesn't exist if you're talking about rookie impact. Rookies usually are not good.

Now, if you're talking about over the life of the rookie contract, then it's best to be someone who is talented enough to be taken towards the top of the draft. Why are the 76ers making the playoffs this season after years of futility? Because Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are sick talents. (Come to think of it, Simmons is technically a rookie, but someone like him being this good this fast is rare.)

MarkD83
03-29-2018, 08:20 PM
That spot doesn't exist if you're talking about rookie impact. Rookies usually are not good.

Now, if you're talking about over the life of the rookie contract, then it's best to be someone who is talented enough to be taken towards the top of the draft. Why are the 76ers making the playoffs this season after years of futility? Because Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are sick talents. (Come to think of it, Simmons is technically a rookie, but someone like him being this good this fast is rare.)

Perhaps the 76ers give us the answer by asking where Embiid and Simmons were drafted. They moved the 76ers from out of the playoffs to a 4/5 seed.

fraggler
03-29-2018, 08:37 PM
Perhaps the 76ers give us the answer by asking where Embiid and Simmons were drafted. They moved the 76ers from out of the playoffs to a 4/5 seed.

There isn't a simple answer. Both Embiid and Okafor were number 3 picks. One was carrying his team to the playoffs before breaking his face on a teammate's shoulder, and the other is getting DNPs for the Nets of all teams. No draft position guarantees anything.