This Week in the ACC: 2/19-2/25

[pfrduke]

Some clarity is starting to appear in the race for the double-bye. Virginia will officially lock up the #1 seed and share of the regular season title with 1 more win and they host the second-worst team in the conference on Wednesday. Duke has a two-game lead on the five-spot, with UNC a game and a half clear and Clemson suddenly the most uncomfortable, but still a full game clear of 5th. Then there are 6 other teams at .500 or above, all of which are very much in the mix for an NCAA tournament bid but probably none of which can feel comfortable that they've locked that up.

Monday
[29]Notre Dame(6-8) (-5) hosts [44]Miami (7-7) (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday
[49]NC State (8-6) (-7) hosts [80]Boston College (6-8) (7:00, ACCNE)

Wednesday
[1]Virginia (13-1) (-19) hosts [124]Georgia Tech (4-10) (7:00, ESPN2)
[45]Syracuse (7-7) (+3) hosts [7]North Carolina (10-5) (7:00, ESPN)
[34]Virginia Tech (8-6) (-1) hosts [16]Clemson (9-5) (7:00, ACCNE)
[3]Duke (10-4) hosts [36]Louisville (8-6) (9:00, ESPN)
[231]Pittsburgh (0-15) hosts [88]Wake Forest (3-12) (9:00, ACCNE)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[34]Virginia Tech (8-6) (-3) hosts [36]Louisville (8-6) (1:00, CBS)
[44]Miami (7-7) (-8) hosts [80]Boston College (6-8) (2:00, ACCNE)
[88]Wake Forest (3-12) (+2) hosts [29]Notre Dame (6-8) (3:00, ACCNE)
[16]Clemson (9-5) (-14) hosts [124]Georgia Tech (4-10) (3:00, ACCNE)
[234]Pittsburgh (0-15) (+18) hosts [1]Virginia (13-1) (4:00, ESPNU)
[3]Duke (10-4) (-13) hosts [45]Syracuse (7-7) (6:00, ESPN3)

Sunday
[49]NC State (8-6) (-1) hosts [28]Florida State (8-7) (6:00, ESPNU)

ACC Non-Conference Record: 151-39
ACC v. Power 6: 29-22

[pfrduke]

And here's how it stands up by efficiency margin:

Virginia: +18.2
Duke: +15.5
North Carolina: +9.6
Louisville: +8.1
Clemson: +3.7
Syracuse: +2.2
Florida State: +1.3
Notre Dame: +0.1
Miami: +0.1
Virginia Tech: -1.2
NC State: -2.8
Boston College: -4.5
Wake Forest: -8.3
Georgia Tech: -10.3
Pittsburgh: -29.5

[CDu]

Some really important matchups for the bubble teams this week. In the "probably need a win to stay or get comfortable" category:

Monday: Miami on the road against Notre Dame
Tuesday: NC State hosting BC
Saturday: Miami hosting BC

In the "jockeying for position in the bubble race" category:
Saturday: Va Tech hosts Louisville (seriously, Louisville's remaining schedule is brutal)
Sunday: NC State hosts FSU

In the "looking for a(nother) signature win" category:
Wednesday: Syracuse hosts UNC, Va Tech hosts Clemson, Duke hosts Louisville
Saturday: Duke hosts Syracuse

[PackMan97]

This weeks +/- for the ACC. +1 for a road win, -1 for a home loss. Any mistakes or ommissions are my fault.

Last weekend was huge for the road teams (except poor little Pitt).


TEAM +/- CONF OVERALL
Virginia +6 13-1 24-2 @VT, @GT, @WF, @Duke, @Syracuse, @FSU, @Miami (VT)
Duke +4 10-4 22-5 @Pitt, @UM, @WF, @GT, @Clemson, (UVa)
North Carolina +2 10-5 21-7 @ND, @NCSU,@UL (NCSU)
Clemson +2 9-5 20-6 @BC, @GT, @Wake, (Duke)
Virginia Tech +2 8-6 19-8 @WF, @ND, @BC, @UVa, @GT, (FSU, UVa, Miami)
NC State +2 8-6 18-9 @Pitt, @Cheats, @Syracuse, @WF (UM, Cheats)
Louisville 0 8-6 18-9 @ND, @FSU, @Pitt, (FSU, UL, Cheats)
Florida State 0 8-7 19-8 @VT, @UL, (UL, UVa)
Miami 0 7-7 18-9 @NCSU, @Pitt, @VT, (Duke, Syracuse, UVa)
Syracuse 0 7-7 18-9 @Pitt, @UL, @Miami, (ND, UVA, NCSU)
Notre Dame -1 6-8 16-11 @Cuse, @BC, (UL, Cheats, VT)
Boston College -2 6-8 16-11 @Pitt, (Clemson, VT, ND)
Georgia Tech -3 4-10 11-16 @Pitt, (UVa, Clemson, Duke, VT)
Wake Forest -5 3-12 10-17 (Duke, UVa, VT, Clemson, NCSU)
Pittsburgh -7 0-15 8-20 (UM, Duke, GT, Syracuse, NCSU, UL, BC)


A lot of action for the middle of the standings this week. It's time to win or get left home in march for a lot of teams.

[duke2x]

The most important game not involving Duke is UNC @ Syracuse. It has huge implications for ACC Tournament seeding. If Syracuse wins, there's a pretty good chance UNC will not get a double bye. They lose tiebreakers to VT, FSU, and Syracuse in that case. If UNC wins, they could finish 2nd in the ACC by sweeping Duke.

Also, look out for State. It is always a risk to assume State will do anything you predict, but they could finish 12-6 and get the #3 seed overall.

For those who want to play with a website that lets you create unrealistic Pitt seeding scenarios and others: http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

[BandAlum83]

This weeks +/- for the ACC. +1 for a road win, -1 for a home loss. Any mistakes or ommissions are my fault.

Last weekend was huge for the road teams (except poor little Pitt).


TEAM +/- CONF OVERALL
Virginia +6 13-1 24-2 @VT, @GT, @WF, @Duke, @Syracuse, @FSU, @Miami (VT)
Duke +4 10-4 22-5 @Pitt, @UM, @WF, @GT, @Clemson, (UVa)
North Carolina +2 10-5 21-7 @ND, @NCSU,@UL (NCSU)
Clemson +2 9-5 20-6 @BC, @GT, @Wake, (Duke)
Virginia Tech +2 8-6 19-8 @WF, @ND, @BC, @UVa, @GT, (FSU, UVa, Miami)
NC State +2 8-6 18-9 @Pitt, @Cheats, @Syracuse, @WF (UM, Cheats)
Louisville 0 8-6 18-9 @ND, @FSU, @Pitt, (FSU, UL, Cheats)
Florida State 0 8-7 19-8 @VT, @UL, (UL, UVa)
Miami 0 7-7 18-9 @NCSU, @Pitt, @VT, (Duke, Syracuse, UVa)
Syracuse 0 7-7 18-9 @Pitt, @UL, @Miami, (ND, UVA, NCSU)
Notre Dame -1 6-8 16-11 @Cuse, @BC, (UL, Cheats, VT)
Boston College -2 6-8 16-11 @Pitt, (Clemson, VT, ND)
Georgia Tech -3 4-10 11-16 @Pitt, (UVa, Clemson, Duke, VT)
Wake Forest -5 3-12 10-17 (Duke, UVa, VT, Clemson, NCSU)
Pittsburgh -7 0-15 8-20 (UM, Duke, GT, Syracuse, NCSU, UL, BC)


A lot of action for the middle of the standings this week. It's time to win or get left home in march for a lot of teams.

Am I reading this correctly? UNC has only played for away games? They have a lot of work left to do, in that case. They could slip out of first round bye territory if they don't perform on the road. Imagine if the last game of the season if we can beat them out of the first round bye!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Am I reading this correctly? UNC has only played for away games? They have a lot of work left to do, in that case. They could slip out of first round bye territory if they don't perform on the road. Imagine if the last game of the season if we can beat them out of the first round bye!

Checking their schedule (ick) that is incorrect. I see seven road games played thus far.

[CDu]

Am I reading this correctly? UNC has only played for away games? They have a lot of work left to do, in that case. They could slip out of first round bye territory if they don't perform on the road. Imagine if the last game of the season if we can beat them out of the first round bye!

No, it says they have won 3 road games and lost one home game. It is just a tally of road wins and home losses for each team.

[PackMan97]

Miami wins at ND. The NCAA chances for the golden domers are fading fast.

[Troublemaker]

Miami wins at ND. The NCAA chances for the golden domers are fading fast.

Not so fast, my friend.

Coach Brey said last night that it's "realistic" that Bonzie Colson could be back in time to play next Wednesday against Pitt (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPYkXqNRvhc&feature=youtu.be&t=3m29s) (youtube, primed)

Let's say Notre Dame looks good with him back in the final two regular season games, Pitt and @UVA (looking good @UVA might just mean playing them close.)

Then ND makes a run to the semis in the ACCT. I think the committee would think long and hard about letting the Domers in.

[Spanarkel]

Miami wins at ND. The NCAA chances for the golden domers are fading fast.

ND somehow no. 33 in pompom ratings(despite home loss to Ball State(no. 178 at time)/loss to IU in Indy that predated Bonzie/Farrell/DJ Harvey injuries).

[PackMan97]

Not so fast, my friend.

Coach Brey said last night that it's "realistic" that Bonzie Colson could be back in time to play next Wednesday against Pitt (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPYkXqNRvhc&feature=youtu.be&t=3m29s) (youtube, primed)

Let's say Notre Dame looks good with him back in the final two regular season games, Pitt and @UVA (looking good @UVA might just mean playing them close.)

Then ND makes a run to the semis in the ACCT. I think the committee would think long and hard about letting the Domers in.

Two wins in the ACCT might not be that compelling as that's only a win against a tean seeded 10-15 and a second win against a team seeded 5-7. This double bye just really messes things up. It used to be a bubble team got a shot right away against a quality opponent. Let's say ND finished as the #10, that means they get a win vs #14 Wake Forest and then play against FSU/Miami/State in the second round. Teams around 40-60 in the RPI. Not a bad win, but a win against a bubble team. Not until the semifinal do they get a shot against a top team and the resume building that would provide. 3 games in 3 days, they'd get crushed by Duke or Carolina, I think.

The ACCT is good for bubble teams needing an easy win to pad their total, it's really bad for a bubble team needing a signature win to show the committee they can compete with anyone.

[ncexnyc]

Bonzie was in uniform last night.

[CDu]

Two wins in the ACCT might not be that compelling as that's only a win against a tean seeded 10-15 and a second win against a team seeded 5-7. This double bye just really messes things up. It used to be a bubble team got a shot right away against a quality opponent. Let's say ND finished as the #10, that means they get a win vs #14 Wake Forest and then play against FSU/Miami/State in the second round. Teams around 40-60 in the RPI. Not a bad win, but a win against a bubble team. Not until the semifinal do they get a shot against a top team and the resume building that would provide. 3 games in 3 days, they'd get crushed by Duke or Carolina, I think.

Minor quibble, but it would be the quarterfinal, not semifinal. The 10 seed would first play the 10/15 game on Tuesday, then the 7/"10" game on Wednesday, and then would be in the 2/"7" game in the quarterfinals on Thursday for their third game in 3 days. They'd have to win 5 in 5 days to win the title.

[JasonEvans]

If Virginia gets Bonzie back and beats Pitt, then plays a really close game with Virginia, then wins their first two games in the ACCT (one of which would be over a likely tournament team) and then loses a close game to a top tier ACC team like Virginia, Duke, or UNC, I think the committee would see a team that had shown it was clearly among the top 30 or so in the nation with Bonzie. They'd get in.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If Virginia gets Bonzie back and beats Pitt, then plays a really close game with Virginia, then wins their first two games in the ACCT (one of which would be over a likely tournament team) and then loses a close game to a top tier ACC team like Virginia, Duke, or UNC, I think the committee would see a team that had shown it was clearly among the top 30 or so in the nation with Bonzie. They'd get in.

If Virginia gets Bonzie, we're screwed...

[devildeac]

If Virginia gets Bonzie back and beats Pitt, then plays a really close game with Virginia, then wins their first two games in the ACCT (one of which would be over a likely tournament team) and then loses a close game to a top tier ACC team like Virginia, Duke, or UNC, I think the committee would see a team that had shown it was clearly among the top 30 or so in the nation with Bonzie. They'd get in.

No fair. They're already leading the ACC so getting a mid-season transfer would be totally out of line. Besides, I thought intra-conference "transfers" were frowned upon highly.

;);)

[CDu]

If Virginia gets Bonzie, we're screwed...

Also, in a game between UVa with Colson and UVa, the unguarded Colson might set a scoring and rebounding record.

[PackMan97]

If Virginia gets Bonzie back and beats Pitt, then plays a really close game with Virginia, then wins their first two games in the ACCT (one of which would be over a likely tournament team) and then loses a close game to a top tier ACC team like Virginia, Duke, or UNC, I think the committee would see a team that had shown it was clearly among the top 30 or so in the nation with Bonzie. They'd get in.

12 losses already, they'll likely finish with 14. How many at-large teams get in with 14 losses? Finishing with two games against Pitt and Wake isn't going to help their RPI/Schedule of Strength. I think they need more than a close loss against UVa or the making it to the quarterfinals (thanks for that correction). They need a signature win that says, "We belong and can make a Cinderella run" instead of "We can compete and put up a good game in the round of 32 if we win the first game".

[Troublemaker]

12 losses already, they'll likely finish with 14. How many at-large teams get in with 14 losses?

Due to the injury issues, I don't think they'll get treated like just any regular at-large team. Maybe I'm overestimating Notre Dame's reputation, but I think the Committee will view Notre Dame as a team that was almost a lock to make the tourney had they been healthy. So, unlike other at-large teams that will be judged on resume, Notre Dame will be judged mostly by the eye test. "Are they back to looking like their former selves or close to it?"


I think they need more than a close loss against UVa or the making it to the quarterfinals (thanks for that correction).

Maybe, but if they make it to the ACC semis, which is what I posted upthread, how would you bet? I think they'd be in.

A run to the quarters, and they'll probably have to sweat it. Beat UVA at UVA on Senior Day and they're also in.

[PackMan97]

Due to the injury issues, I don't think they'll get treated like just any regular at-large team. Maybe I'm overestimating Notre Dame's reputation, but I think the Committee will view Notre Dame as a team that was almost a lock to make the tourney had they been healthy. So, unlike other at-large teams that will be judged on resume, Notre Dame will be judged mostly by the eye test. "Are they back to looking like their former selves or close to it?"

Maybe, but if they make it to the ACC semis, which is what I posted upthread, how would you bet? I think they'd be in.

A run to the quarters, and they'll probably have to sweat it. Beat UVA at UVA on Senior Day and they're also in.

Such a tough question. I completely understand your point on this one. I'll be happy to revist the discussion once the regular season is over and the smaller conferences have had their tourneys. I think a lot of it depends on how many smaller schools get upset. Buffalo needs the Mid-American's automatic qualifier, Rhole Island or St Bonnie need the A10's automatic spot, Middle Tennessee needs ConfUSAs automatic bid. The bigger the bubble, the better I like ND's chances. I think a small bubble will leave ND at home without an automatic bid.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Rhole Island or St Bonnie need the A10's automatic spot, Middle Tennessee needs ConfUSAs automatic bid.

Rhody is #8 in RPI. They're not missing the tournament.

[PackMan97]

Rhody is #8 in RPI. They're not missing the tournament.

What I meant was Notre Dame needs Rhody to get the automatic qualifier. A bigger bubble gives ND some chance. A lot of upsets and a second or third bid from what should be one or two bid conferences will shrink the at-large spots available and Notre Dame's chances.

[Duke79UNLV77]

12 losses already, they'll likely finish with 14. How many at-large teams get in with 14 losses?

If the team has Trae Young, apparently it is still a top 4 seed.

[OldPhiKap]

If the team has Trae Young, apparently it is still a top 4 seed.

TV draw = juicy bid.

If we've learned anything about the NCAA, it's all about the Benjies.

[DarkstarWahoo]

What I meant was Notre Dame needs Rhody to get the automatic qualifier. A bigger bubble gives ND some chance. A lot of upsets and a second or third bid from what should be one or two bid conferences will shrink the at-large spots available and Notre Dame's chances.

Upon a reread, that is blindingly obvious. All I can say in my defense is that it's been a long week already.

[OldPhiKap]

State taking care of business with about ten minutes left. Close it out, Pack!

[Tripping William]

State taking care of business with about ten minutes left. Close it out, Pack!

Done deal.

[PackMan97]

State taking care of business with about ten minutes left. Close it out, Pack!

What a crazy season. I'd given the team up for dead after Johnson was suspended, we lost to UNC-G, bombed @Clemson and got destroyed by a Bonzi-less Notre Dame heading IHOP a road game @Duke.

Now we sit one game out of 3rd and a win away from 20 overall an 10 wins in the ACC. /boggle

[CDu]

What a crazy season. I'd given the team up for dead after Johnson was suspended, we lost to UNC-G, bombed @Clemson and got destroyed by a Bonzi-less Notre Dame heading IHOP a road game @Duke.

Now we sit one game out of 3rd and a win away from 20 overall an 10 wins in the ACC. /boggle

A reasonable shot at an 11-win ACC season, with 12 not out of the question. Winning one of your two remaining home games (neither easy, but each winnable) should lock up a bid, especially if you handle business at GT. Really impressive first year for Keatts.

[JasonEvans]

Really impressive first year for Keatts.

Keats, Brownell, or Bennett for ACC COY? You can make a really good case for any of the three.


heading IHOP a road game @Duke.

Nice auto-correct there ;)

[dukelifer]

What a crazy season. I'd given the team up for dead after Johnson was suspended, we lost to UNC-G, bombed @Clemson and got destroyed by a Bonzi-less Notre Dame heading IHOP a road game @Duke.

Now we sit one game out of 3rd and a win away from 20 overall an 10 wins in the ACC. /boggle

Very good season given the circumstances. One more win against UNC would have pushed it to great - but that can still happen ;)

[ChillinDuke]

Due to the injury issues, I don't think they'll get treated like just any regular at-large team. Maybe I'm overestimating Notre Dame's reputation, but I think the Committee will view Notre Dame as a team that was almost a lock to make the tourney had they been healthy. So, unlike other at-large teams that will be judged on resume, Notre Dame will be judged mostly by the eye test. "Are they back to looking like their former selves or close to it?"



Maybe, but if they make it to the ACC semis, which is what I posted upthread, how would you bet? I think they'd be in.

A run to the quarters, and they'll probably have to sweat it. Beat UVA at UVA on Senior Day and they're also in.


12 losses already, they'll likely finish with 14. How many at-large teams get in with 14 losses? Finishing with two games against Pitt and Wake isn't going to help their RPI/Schedule of Strength. I think they need more than a close loss against UVa or the making it to the quarterfinals (thanks for that correction). They need a signature win that says, "We belong and can make a Cinderella run" instead of "We can compete and put up a good game in the round of 32 if we win the first game".


If Virginia gets Bonzie back and beats Pitt, then plays a really close game with Virginia, then wins their first two games in the ACCT (one of which would be over a likely tournament team) and then loses a close game to a top tier ACC team like Virginia, Duke, or UNC, I think the committee would see a team that had shown it was clearly among the top 30 or so in the nation with Bonzie. They'd get in.

I'm with PackMan on this one. I don't think ND can reasonably get in unless Bonzie comes back and they beat UVA. Bonzie got injured in their win over Ga Tech on 1/3. Up to and including that game, they were 11-3. 10-3 if you exclude Chaminade. One of their losses was home against Ball State (bad). And their only good win was against perennially-debated Wichita State by 1 on a neutral floor. They blew out LSU neutral as well, but I wouldn't call that a highlight sort of win. They lost to Indiana by 3 in OT (neutral) as well.

Look, ND should have probably made the NCAAT this year if they didn't get bitten by injuries. But they did. I don't think it's fair for the Committee to play the what-if game with teams that quite objectively don't deserve to clearly be in. If ND was 12-1 with Bonzie without that Ball State loss, I think the case is cleaner. But that's not the reality. It's not cut-and-dry enough and the injury history is too long to allow a team with ND's current resume to get into the dance. It sucks for them, but that's how it works.

To put it more succinctly, I wouldn't be in favor of the Committee putting them in simply because it's too ambiguous a precedent to set. Where do you draw the line in the future? ND wasn't clearly in the dance at 10-3 with a good neutral win over WSU and a bad home loss to Ball State. Plenty of teams had that sort of resume 13 games into the season. Georgetown, for example, on 1/3 was 11-3 with no good wins but no bad losses (home in OT vs Syracuse; home in 2OT vs Butler; away at Marquette). They never deserved to be in the NCAAT but take away their best player until now and they could claim the same "look, we could have been great" story.

- Chillin

[ndkjr70]

So the race for a top-4 seed in the ACCT is on. Anyone know who holds the tie-breakers between UNC/Clemson and UNC/NCST?

1. UVA (locked up #1 seed unless they lose out. AKA, they've locked up the #1 seed)
2. Duke 10-4 (Lou, SYR, @VT, UNC)
3. UNC 10-5 (@SYR, MIA, @Duke)
4. Clemson 9-5 (@VT, GT, FSU, @SYR)
------------------
5. NCST 9-6 (FSU, @GT, Lou)
6. VaTech 8-6 (Clemson, Lou, Duke, @MIA)
7. Louisville 8-6 (@Duke, @VT, UVA, @NCST)

Should we be lucky enough to finish 2nd, we'd face the winner of the 7-versus-10 game in the third round of the ACC Tournament. If Bonzie is coming back, it's time to pray that ND does not represent either of those seeds (though 7 looks unlikely, 10 seed is very much a possibility).

I'll EDIT to say I'd much rather face Clemson as a 3-seed than UNC (and I'd much rather UNC have to get past UVA to make an ACCCG). If Clemson finishes 4-0, which is doable, playoffstatus.com gives them a 96% chance at a 2-or-3 seed. I'd very much prefer that over a UNC re-match in the ACCT.

[OldPhiKap]

ND is 14-10. Their last three games are @ Wake (little to no credit for winning), Pitt (same) and then @ UVA. If they rip off wins in all three games, that gives them an excellent win @ UVA but not much else. 17-10 doesn't scream "pick me," but that would get them to 9-9 in a conference that is likely to send 9 teams or so to the Big Dance.

Even then, to breathe better, I still think they would have to win their first ACCT game (which would be against a team from the lower third or so of the conference) and then maybe a second game (likely against a higher-ranked team) to get to 19-10.

Possible? Sure. They ain't dead until they're dead. But ND has already burned its cushion. A loss to Wake or Pitt seals their fate absent a miracle conference tournament run. Winning those games but losing to UVA leaves them at 16-11, 8-10. Nah.

[ChillinDuke]

ND is 14-10. Their last three games are @ Wake (little to no credit for winning), Pitt (same) and then @ UVA. If they rip off wins in all three games, that gives them an excellent win @ UVA but not much else. 17-10 doesn't scream "pick me," but that would get them to 9-9 in a conference that is likely to send 9 teams or so to the Big Dance.

Even then, to breathe better, I still think they would have to win their first ACCT game (which would be against a team from the lower third or so of the conference) and then maybe a second game (likely against a higher-ranked team) to get to 19-10.

Possible? Sure. They ain't dead until they're dead. But ND has already burned its cushion. A loss to Wake or Pitt seals their fate absent a miracle conference tournament run. Winning those games but losing to UVA leaves them at 16-11, 8-10. Nah.

OPK, they are 16-12. 15-12 if you don't count Chaminade (not D-1).

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

I'm with PackMan on this one. I don't think ND can reasonably get in unless Bonzie comes back and they beat UVA. Bonzie got injured in their win over Ga Tech on 1/3. Up to and including that game, they were 11-3. 10-3 if you exclude Chaminade. One of their losses was home against Ball State (bad). And their only good win was against perennially-debated Wichita State by 1 on a neutral floor. They blew out LSU neutral as well, but I wouldn't call that a highlight sort of win. They lost to Indiana by 3 in OT (neutral) as well.

Look, ND should have probably made the NCAAT this year if they didn't get bitten by injuries. But they did. I don't think it's fair for the Committee to play the what-if game with teams that quite objectively don't deserve to clearly be in. If ND was 12-1 with Bonzie without that Ball State loss, I think the case is cleaner. But that's not the reality. It's not cut-and-dry enough and the injury history is too long to allow a team with ND's current resume to get into the dance. It sucks for them, but that's how it works.

To put it more succinctly, I wouldn't be in favor of the Committee putting them in simply because it's too ambiguous a precedent to set. Where do you draw the line in the future? ND wasn't clearly in the dance at 10-3 with a good neutral win over WSU and a bad home loss to Ball State. Plenty of teams had that sort of resume 13 games into the season. Georgetown, for example, on 1/3 was 11-3 with no good wins but no bad losses (home in OT vs Syracuse; home in 2OT vs Butler; away at Marquette). They never deserved to be in the NCAAT but take away their best player until now and they could claim the same "look, we could have been great" story.

- Chillin

Very good points, Chillin'. No doubt the Ball St and Indiana losses while healthy loom large for ND.

With that said, I'm still going to say that a run to the ACC semis gets them in. I'm not saying that *I* would necessarily endorse that decision, but I think the Committee would be okay bumping, say, a Baylor from the field in order to let in a Preseason All American in Colson. If ND makes a run in the ACCT, we're also going to get Bilas, Vitale, and the ESPNers jumping on the bandwagon and making the case every single day that ND is a tournament team when healthy. If I were you, I would not trust the Committee to make the right (from your perspective) decision. The urge to let a likable star player (who's a senior) into the tournament, the constant pro-ND propaganda on ESPN... it might just be too much for the Committee to see it your way.

[OldPhiKap]

OPK, they are 16-12. 15-12 if you don't count Chaminade (not D-1).

- Chillin

Thanks, the site I used had the wrong ##s apparently.

[Emily Latella] Never mind. [/Emily Latella]

[Troublemaker]

Anyone know who holds the tie-breakers between UNC/Clemson and UNC/NCST?

Since both scenarios involve a split season series, it would come down to record against the top teams.

UNC being 1-1 against Duke would give them the tiebreaker over Clemson (0-1). (I'm assuming UNC would not be in a tie with Clemson if they were to sweep Duke).

NCSU being 1-0 against Duke would give them the tiebreaker over UNC (1-1).

If there's a 3-way (or more) tie, then head-to-head record among the tied teams would take precedence.

[gam7]

Thanks, the site I used had the wrong ##s apparently.

[Emily Latella] Never mind. [/Emily Latella]

Yeah, I've been bitten by www.sportsstatsasoftwoweeksago.com too...

[Ian]

The best case scenario for Duke would be NCSU getting the #3 while UNC and Clemson get the 4/5.

That can happen if State win out and UNC only loses at Duke. State's remaining games are home against FSU and Louisville and at GTech. All winnable games. If Syracuse can win at home against UNC then State can lose one of those 3 and still end up 3rd.

[PackMan97]

The best case scenario for Duke would be NCSU getting the #3 while UNC and Clemson get the 4/5.

I'm on board with that plan :)

I like that State has FSU and Louisville at home, but dang those are going to be tough games. Right now all three teams are fighting for their lives on the bubble. The chance to push someone else down and climb on top of them for bubble positioning is going to bring some intensity to those games. Basically the NCAAT has started early in the ACC.

[ChillinDuke]

Very good points, Chillin'. No doubt the Ball St and Indiana losses while healthy loom large for ND.

With that said, I'm still going to say that a run to the ACC semis gets them in. I'm not saying that *I* would necessarily endorse that decision, but I think the Committee would be okay bumping, say, a Baylor from the field in order to let in a Preseason All American in Colson. If ND makes a run in the ACCT, we're also going to get Bilas, Vitale, and the ESPNers jumping on the bandwagon and making the case every single day that ND is a tournament team when healthy. If I were you, I would not trust the Committee to make the right (from your perspective) decision. The urge to let a likable star player (who's a senior) into the tournament, the constant pro-ND propaganda on ESPN... it might just be too much for the Committee to see it your way.

You may end up being right, and I absolutely agree that, depending on a few things happening, there might be a lot of discussion out there about this specific situation. But even granting that ESPN/Bilas/storylines will be stacked in favor of ND, I still think it's a long shot.

I went back and checked. In the last 7 years since the NCAAT expanded the play-in to 4 games, the only time a non-16-seed play-in had 14 losses was in the initial year (2011). USC was 19-14 as an 11-seed in Dayton. That team had wins over NCAAT seeds #4 Texas, #5 Arizona, #7 UCLA, #7 Washington, and #9 Tennessee. They had 4 sub-100 KenPom losses (end of year rankings), but 3 of those were in their first 8 games and the 4th was away at Oregon State (in conference). No idea if they had an injury in play that year.

This year's Notre Dame team has less sub-100 losses (1; Ball State), but also less NCAAT-caliber wins. Likely only (per Joey Idiot) #4 WSU, #8 FSU, #11 NC State (bubble-ish), and #12 Syracuse (bubble).

So, only one team in the last seven years (68-team NCAAT format) has as many hypothetical losses as ND will have. And that team was probably the last team in (they lost to VCU by 13 in the play-in, by the way). That USC team had better wins than ND, although more bad losses (although discounted by early season). Plus, ND first needs to affirmatively get their best player back. Then ND needs to get at least one, probably two, win(s) that are not Wake or Pitt (or Georgia Tech or Boston College, for that matter). And they probably still have to get lucky with how the bubble shakes out.

I'm sticking by long-shot odds.

- Chillin

[ChillinDuke]

Nevermind. USC's inclusion in 2011 was for one very obvious reason. A reason I totally missed when I was posting above.

After all, someone had to burst Virginia Tech off the bubble. 22-12. KenPom #40. Coached by Sethy.

Amazing!!!

- Chillin

[HokieEngineer]

After all, someone had to burst Virginia Tech off the bubble. 22-12. KenPom #40. Coached by Sethy.



It's even worse than that: Pomeroy had VT at #28 on selection day. It's ranking dropped after a home loss to Wichita St. (the eventual NIT champion).

[JasonEvans]

Va Tech about to go down at home to Lou... color me shocked at that result. Tech inches closer to the bubble (they were comfortably in, I think) and so does Louisville (they were out before this, I think).

[SavDukeGrad]

Va Tech about to go down at home to Lou... color me shocked at that result. Tech inches closer to the bubble (they were comfortably in, I think) and so does Louisville (they were out before this, I think).

And Boston College leading Miami in Miami by double digits in the 2nd half! What's going on today in the ACC?

[ChillinDuke]

Don't look now, but BC may have a path into the NCAAT that doesn't require them winning the ACCT.

- Chillin

[OldPhiKap]

Va Tech inches closer to the bubble (they were comfortably in, I think).

Somewhere, Seth Greenberg senses a disturbance in the Force.

[tbyers11]

And Boston College leading Miami in Miami by double digits in the 2nd half! What's going on today in the ACC?

Lonnie Walker just hit a 3 to put Miami up one with 2.4 seconds left. BC was up 69-55 with 5:51 left.

Meltdown by BC including Bowman fouling out with around a minute left.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

And BC snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

[DarkstarWahoo]

And BC snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

It was ever thus.

[devildeac]

Lonnie Walker just hit a 3 to put Miami up one with 2.4 seconds left. BC was up 69-55 with 5:51 left.

Meltdown by BC including Bowman fouling out with around a minute left.

Even Bill James wouldn't have called that lead "safe," even if BC had the ball. ;)

But, I certainly see your point/s.

http://www.lilliechilen.com/billjames/

[ncexnyc]

Lonnie Walker just hit a 3 to put Miami up one with 2.4 seconds left. BC was up 69-55 with 5:51 left.

Meltdown by BC including Bowman fouling out with around a minute left.

Now blowing a 14 point lead with just under six minutes to play might not sound that bad, but when you consider it was a 3 possession game with about 1:50 to go that just goes to show how epic a choke this was. The Canes cut it to a 3 point lead in about 30+ seconds and a major part of this was Lykes totally punking Bowman.

[devildeac]

One team rambling so as to wreck the other.

Technically, wrong thread?

[JasonEvans]

Tech inches closer to the bubble (they were comfortably in, I think) and so does Louisville (they were out before this, I think).

To clarify, VT was a 9-seed coming into today in Bracketmatrix. Lou was one of the first 4 out (#3).

This loss probably moves VT down to a 10, the 6 teams who are #11 seeds are the bubble, IMO. I suspect this could move Louisville into one of those #11 seeds... they certainly gave themselves more of a chance with this win.

-Jason "I think Lou needs to win 2 more games... they play Virginia, @NCSt and then the ACC tourney (they will have a winnable first round game, for sure)" Evans

[Troublemaker]

If I told you that an ACC team would score only 7 points in the 1st half of a game today, would you be able to identify the team and the opponent?

[richardjackson199]

If I told you that an ACC team would score only 7 points in the 1st half of a game today, would you be able to identify the team and the opponent?

Should be easy. Of course I took Pitt, the points, and the Over in our contest! :eek:

[DukieInBrasil]

Big time and bigly needed wins for Miami and Loovuhl today, guaranteeing them .500 records in conference, perhaps better. VT is already at 9 ACC wins so they ought to be ok. I suppose if ND wins today and wins out, that they still have NCAA hopes.
Wow, UVA just dismantled Pitt in the 1st half. Pretty sure UVA doesn't need to score again to win the game.

[dukelifer]

If I told you that an ACC team would score only 7 points in the 1st half of a game today, would you be able to identify the team and the opponent?

I saw Duke score 7 points in a half- the same day I saw UNC score 0 ;)

[House G]

If I told you that an ACC team would score only 7 points in the 1st half of a game today, would you be able to identify the team and the opponent?

Did Pitt really only make one FG? That has to be a record, doesn’t it? Lol

[DukieInBrasil]

Also, bigly needed win by Clemson. Shelton Mitchell returned, came off the bench and played quite well, so their main issue over the last few games has been resolved. Gabe Devoe with a big game for them today.

[JasonEvans]

Did Pitt really only make one FG? That has to be a record, doesn’t it? Lol

Which is more surprising, that Pitt had 1 -- 1!!! -- FG in the first half against UVA...

...Or that I am really not all that surprised to hear that?

[DarkstarWahoo]

The stoppable force meets the immovable object.

[devildeac]

WTH? Did Pitt really only score 7 in the first half? I checked the score with about 9:00 to go and it was 19-7. Pitt went 9 minutes (likely even more) without scoring?

Astounding.

[DU82]

WTH? Did Pitt really only score 7 in the first half? I checked the score with about 9:00 to go and it was 19-7. Pitt went 9 minutes (likely even more) without scoring?

Astounding.

And Chicky Yonakor wasn’t even playing for them.

[Bob Green]

WTH? Did Pitt really only score 7 in the first half?

That is 7 more than the record for least points in the first half of an ACC game. :D

[jv001]

That is 7 more than the record for least points in the first half of an ACC game. :D

It couldn't have happened to a more cheating bunch. GoDuke!

[Bob Green]

http://sportspickle.com/college-basketball/kevin-stallings-caught-fbi-offering-100000-anyone-attend-pitt-basketball-game.html


Kevin Stallings caught by FBI offering $100,000 to anyone who would attend a Pitt basketball game.

[wobatus]

Seems to me there was a game a week after that 7-0 at halftime game.

UNC also lost to Duke 21-20 in the 1966 ACC Tournament. NC State beat Duke 12-11 in the 1968 ACC Tournament. Of course these are all pre-shot clock.

[ChillinDuke]

What a remarkable loss by BC. The NCAAT picture for the ACC got much clearer today, across the board.

Especially for Pitt... 🤣

- Chillin

[Ian]

Big game between NCSU and FSU today for both NCAA, and ACC Tourney seeding purposes.

NC State still has a shot to be the #3 seed and finish ahead of UNC in the standings but they need to win out.

[dukelifer]

Big game between NCSU and FSU today for both NCAA, and ACC Tourney seeding purposes.

NC State still has a shot to be the #3 seed and finish ahead of UNC in the standings but they need to win out.

N.C. State up big in the second half. They are a dangerous team.

[PackMan97]

State is administering a beat down. 80-55 with about 5 minutes left.

[CDu]

State is administering a beat down. 80-55 with about 5 minutes left.

Good. Well on your way to locking up a bid. Two more wins and a Duke win over UNC and you will be top 3 in the ACC!

[OldPhiKap]

Congrats to PackMan and State,

[DukieInBrasil]

State is administering a beat down. 80-55 with about 5 minutes left.

i think State just sealed the deal on an NCAA bid. 10 conference wins, solid overall record, several wins over top teams. There's no understating how important Markell Johnson is to the Pack. They were a mediocre team (one that still beat Duke) without him, and looking quite impressive with him.