Trevon Duval vs. UNC

[DavidBenAkiva]

This stat really jumped out to me when I was looking back at the UNC game. Duval had a +/- of +9 in his 20 minutes against UNC.

If he doesn't get the foul call for going for a loose ball (which was total b.s.) or the foul call when Berry went for a layup, I think Duke wins against UNC. There were some really soft foul calls on Duval in that game. Duke was defensively and offensively a different team when he was on the court. Yes, he had 4 turnovers, which was frustrating. But he also is able to do things no other player on Duke's roster can do. He makes Grayson Allen a better player, too. That's something.

[proelitedota]

People somehow refused to acknowledge how the ACC home whistle matters this season. There were a stretch in the late first half where I thought the officiating helped UNC get back into the game. There is a reason why Kenpom ratings didn't change after last night.

[CDu]

This stat really jumped out to me when I was looking back at the UNC game. Duval had a +/- of +9 in his 20 minutes against UNC.

If he doesn't get the foul call for going for a loose ball (which was total b.s.) or the foul call when Berry went for a layup, I think Duke wins against UNC. There were some really soft foul calls on Duval in that game. Duke was defensively and offensively a different team when he was on the court. Yes, he had 4 turnovers, which was frustrating. But he also is able to do things no other player on Duke's roster can do. He makes Grayson Allen a better player, too. That's something.

The foul call for Duval diving on top of a player was not BS. It was the right call. You can't just dive on top of someone.

But yes, the team played better with Duval on the floor last night. Whether or not that is causal, I don't know. I totally agree that he offers stuff that nobody else at Duke (possibly ever) can offer. And we absolutely need him to win it all. But if we are going to note his +/- in a 20-minute sample from last night, it is also worth noting that he does have the worst +/- on the season of any of the starters.

[Rich]

This stat really jumped out to me when I was looking back at the UNC game. Duval had a +/- of +9 in his 20 minutes against UNC.

If he doesn't get the foul call for going for a loose ball (which was total b.s.) or the foul call when Berry went for a layup, I think Duke wins against UNC. There were some really soft foul calls on Duval in that game. Duke was defensively and offensively a different team when he was on the court. Yes, he had 4 turnovers, which was frustrating. But he also is able to do things no other player on Duke's roster can do. He makes Grayson Allen a better player, too. That's something.

I thought he came out more aggressive driving to the rim when the game started. He played like the "last 5 minute Duvall" when the game started, but I think he gets discouraged easily (e.g., if he has a turnover). I think the coaches have to give him the confidence to keep attacking the rim, but I'm sure it's hard since our 2 bigs clog the lane. At one point near the end of the game he attacked the rim and I thought he was past his man and had a clear layup, but he then tried to pass it to the perimeter and it was stolen. That play was a killer.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This stat really jumped out to me when I was looking back at the UNC game. Duval had a +/- of +9 in his 20 minutes against UNC.

If he doesn't get the foul call for going for a loose ball (which was total b.s.) or the foul call when Berry went for a layup, I think Duke wins against UNC. There were some really soft foul calls on Duval in that game. Duke was defensively and offensively a different team when he was on the court. Yes, he had 4 turnovers, which was frustrating. But he also is able to do things no other player on Duke's roster can do. He makes Grayson Allen a better player, too. That's something.

You must not have read the forum talking points from last night... people are suggesting Duval come out of the starting line up.

:rolleyes:

[FerryFor50]

The foul call for Duval diving on top of a player was not BS. It was the right call. You can't just dive on top of someone.

But yes, the team played better with Duval on the floor last night. Whether or not that is causal, I don't know. I totally agree that he offers stuff that nobody else at Duke (possibly ever) can offer. And we absolutely need him to win it all. But if we are going to note his +/- in a 20-minute sample from last night, it is also worth noting that he does have the worst +/- on the season of any of the starters.

I think it's fair to question the validity of that loose ball call with so much inconsistency on loose ball foul call in those situations. I've seen players dive onto other players and never get called for it. Given how the game was being officiated to that point, it was surprising to see that called a foul.

[FerryFor50]

You must not have read the forum talking points from last night... people are suggesting Duval come out of the starting line up.

:rolleyes:

Hey man. New thread, new rules! :cool:

[MCFinARL]

I think it's fair to question the validity of that loose ball call with so much inconsistency on loose ball foul call in those situations. I've seen players dive onto other players and never get called for it. Given how the game was being officiated to that point, it was surprising to see that called a foul.

Yes, I agree. Should it be a foul? Maybe. But it is almost never called.

[CDu]

I think it's fair to question the validity of that loose ball call with so much inconsistency on loose ball foul call in those situations. I've seen players dive onto other players and never get called for it. Given how the game was being officiated to that point, it was surprising to see that called a foul.

That it isn't consistently called a foul doesn't mean that it wasn't the correct call. It certainly wasn't a BS call. You can say that it was a foul that often incorrectly goes as a no-call. But it was by no means a BS call. He committed a foul. Sometimes players get lucky and officials don't call that foul. But he committed a foul. And he correctly got called for it.

[barely]

I think it's fair to question the validity of that loose ball call with so much inconsistency on loose ball foul call in those situations. I've seen players dive onto other players and never get called for it. Given how the game was being officiated to that point, it was surprising to see that called a foul.

Yes, I agree. It was a foul, but it is rarely called and never with any consistency. The call against Duval on the Berry drive was bad call. (And, as every announcer noted, the late no-call on the walk that led to the open 3 for UNC was a killer - and a very obvious call)

On the Duval topic more generally, I agree that we absolutely need him. As others have posted, he can make plays that no one else on the team can make and Grayson is much better when Duval is in the game and playing well.

Last night was very frustrating. We needed to keep pounding the ball at Maye et al inside as it was very clear they could not guard us, draw help and then play inside-out. Duval should have been the other alternative - driving the ball, drawing help and then finding our big guys or our shooters. As K said though, we would have won if we had just controlled the boards in the second half. UNC got some lucky bounces, but were also good at just tipping the ball out to their guards when we didn’t immediately control the defensive rebound. We need more effort and sense of urgency on those defensive rebounds particularly from the guards/perimeter players.

[UrinalCake]

+/- is likely skewed by him playing more in the first half (when the whole team was playing better) and less in the second. And no, I don’t think his absence is what caused us to play with less effort and UNC to play with more.

The +/- can be a very misleading stat. There have been examples of players like Durant and LeBron having a negative effect on their team’s +/- rating over the course of a season. I agree that Duval provides value but I don’t think this one stat should be the sole source of proof.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I think it's fair to question the validity of that loose ball call with so much inconsistency on loose ball foul call in those situations. I've seen players dive onto other players and never get called for it. Given how the game was being officiated to that point, it was surprising to see that called a foul.

Yeah, the loose ball/multiple players/diving on the floor game situation needs some clarification from officials... First there's the question of possession (what determines it?). Then there's the question of fouls (what is allowed or not in that situation?). Then there's the question of traveling... I often see guys dive, grab the ball and slide across the floor. No call. Sometimes they're not sliding, but both feet are moving. No call. Maybe players/coaches understand the rules to these situations, but I think most fans could use some clarification.

[DukeFanSince1990]

I think it's fair to question the validity of that loose ball call with so much inconsistency on loose ball foul call in those situations. I've seen players dive onto other players and never get called for it. Given how the game was being officiated to that point, it was surprising to see that called a foul.

Yeah, I watch a lot of basketball games and I cant remember the last time I saw that called on a loose ball.

[Sixthman]

But yes, the team played better with Duval on the floor last night. Whether or not that is causal, I don't know. I totally agree that he offers stuff that nobody else at Duke (possibly ever) can offer. And we absolutely need him to win it all. But if we are going to note his +/- in a 20-minute sample from last night, it is also worth noting that he does have the worst +/- on the season of any of the starters.

I definitely agree that the team played better with Duval in the first half. I think it was a push in the second half. To me, he looked the most comfortable he has all year in the first half last night. My main concern about the team is what some -- including K -- have called not playing Duke basketball, which is a version of the concern raised that more than one player on the team displays a lack of situational awareness. This is most glaring for anyone running the point.

I think the most obvious path to a national championship would be for Duval to play to his maximum potential, effectively manage game situations, and use his athleticism to be consistently physical and effective on defense. I do not think we absolutely need him to win it all. It seems plausible -- not preferable -- that Goldwire (for example) and four NBA first round picks (including a couple of lottery picks) all playing to their potential could win a national championship. There are a lot of ways to get there, it's just not where we seem headed.

[ncexnyc]

That it isn't consistently called a foul doesn't mean that it wasn't the correct call. It certainly wasn't a BS call. You can say that it was a foul that often incorrectly goes as a no-call. But it was by no means a BS call. He committed a foul. Sometimes players get lucky and officials don't call that foul. But he committed a foul. And he correctly got called for it.

Where have we seen this? Ah yes, the swinging elbows debate from the UVA game. Why is it that you find it so very difficult to understand the frustration Duke fans feel with the inconsistent way the rules are applied? Your take on these situations reminds me of Inspector Javert.

Another example of the way rules are inconsistently applied was Javin's final foul. He reaches in to grab the ball and the whistle automatically blows as if the official anticipated him fouling instead of trying for a tie-up. That very same play happened against Louisville and cost them the game as the refs had no problem letting the Miami player rip the ball away. Maybe some home cooking, but again as a Duke fan I'd like to see things called on a consistent basis.

[CDu]

Where have we seen this? Ah yes, the swinging elbows debate from the UVA game. Why is it that you find it so very difficult to understand the frustration Duke fans feel with the inconsistent way the rules are applied? Your take on these situations reminds me of Inspector Javert.

Another example of the way rules are inconsistently applied was Javin's final foul. He reaches in to grab the ball and the whistle automatically blows as if the official anticipated him fouling instead of trying for a tie-up. That very same play happened against Louisville and cost them the game as the refs had no problem letting the Miami player rip the ball away. Maybe some home cooking, but again as a Duke fan I'd like to see things called on a consistent basis.

One can be frustrated with inconsistent officiating. But calling BS when the correct call is made seems inappropriate. There were plenty of calls that were made incorrectly that could be focused on instead. Complaining that a correct call was BS is a lot like terping to me.

[elvis14]

People somehow refused to acknowledge how the ACC home whistle matters this season. There were a stretch in the late first half where I thought the officiating helped UNC get back into the game. There is a reason why Kenpom ratings didn't change after last night.

I just posted this same thing in the post game thread. The first half comeback was complemented by some mystery calls. So frustrating.


I think it's fair to question the validity of that loose ball call with so much inconsistency on loose ball foul call in those situations. I've seen players dive onto other players and never get called for it. Given how the game was being officiated to that point, it was surprising to see that called a foul.

What a terrible call that was. I can't even remember the last time I've seen that call made. But hey, don't blame the refs they had nothing to do with the game.

As for Duval, what a strange game for him. Did some great stuff and some bad stuff, played defense pretty poorly and ended up with a +/- that basically proves that the stat is best used over large sample sizes. I know guys don't like him being criticized but is there a harsher criticism than getting benched during this game by Coach K.

I'm not sure what to do with him. In the first half he drove and kicked to an open Trent (poor pass but at least he made the pass). Trent hit the 3 and we were like "Finally! Let's see more of that". Thought he'd finally start to turn the corner. Didn't work out that way, though.

I think we will be a better team with TD on the court than having him off. I also think that we need to play him in shorter stretches where he subs out and gets coached about how to maximize his usefulness on the court. Perhaps it's been a mistake for him to just be thrown out to play so many minutes all season. We might have needed to bring him along a little more slowly. Being a freshman PG is hard and he's doing a pretty good job for the most part....I think one thing that causes frustration is that we can see so much potential and we just want it realized because we need it.

[ncexnyc]

One can be frustrated with inconsistent officiating. But calling BS when the correct call is made seems inappropriate. There were plenty of calls that were made incorrectly that could be focused on instead. Complaining that a correct call was BS is a lot like terping to me.
And it's great that you point out the rules as they are written which is fine, however for some strange reason you feel obligated to beat the proverbial dead horse.

[CDu]

And it's great that you point out the rules as they are written which is fine, however for some strange reason you feel obligated to beat the proverbial dead horse.

I made one post in response to an egregious example of this. Folks have responded to me, and I have responded to them. I don't think that's beating a dead horse.

This is a discussion board. If you don't want to have opinions discussed, it's probably not the right medium for you.

[Ian]

Forget the +/- Take a look at these tempo stats.

https://www.scacchoops.com/viewhdgame.asp?hSchedule=45554&bView=6#

Duval had a 40% usage rate while having the worst ORTG on the team, he also had the 2nd worst DRTG on the team beating out Jack White by the tiniest of margins. Overall his rating of -7.1 was the worst of any player on either team last night

[evrim]

This stat really jumped out to me when I was looking back at the UNC game. Duval had a +/- of +9 in his 20 minutes against UNC.

If he doesn't get the foul call for going for a loose ball (which was total b.s.) or the foul call when Berry went for a layup, I think Duke wins against UNC. There were some really soft foul calls on Duval in that game. Duke was defensively and offensively a different team when he was on the court. Yes, he had 4 turnovers, which was frustrating. But he also is able to do things no other player on Duke's roster can do. He makes Grayson Allen a better player, too. That's something.

There was lots of home cooking at this game. AS bad as we played sometimes, we still should have won. Maye's 3rd foul, the last two minutes etc.

[kako]

I'm not sure what to do with him. In the first half he drove and kicked to an open Trent (poor pass but at least he made the pass). Trent hit the 3 and we were like "Finally! Let's see more of that". Thought he'd finally start to turn the corner. Didn't work out that way, though.

I think we will be a better team with TD on the court than having him off. I also think that we need to play him in shorter stretches where he subs out and gets coached about how to maximize his usefulness on the court. Perhaps it's been a mistake for him to just be thrown out to play so many minutes all season. We might have needed to bring him along a little more slowly. Being a freshman PG is hard and he's doing a pretty good job for the most part...I think one thing that causes frustration is that we can see so much potential and we just want it realized because we need it.

Agree that he offers a dimension no one else can on this team. And agree that he has the POTENTIAL to help Duke be a better team. Totally agree with you that playing him in shorter stretches may be better. His decision making needs help, and being coached on the bench while watching play should help him (wish we still had Wojo for this, but I'm fine with Scheyer/Capel doing it). But honestly, I think it's safe to say he's not the freshman PG savior we were led to believe. I want him to do well, but I do find myself cringing every time he shoots a jumper (25% from 3 sucks). He reminds me of a much less talented Starbury at his point, which isn't really a good thing given the importance of his role/minutes on this team.

[BeachBlueDevil]

Agree that he offers a dimension no one else can on this team. And agree that he has the POTENTIAL to help Duke be a better team. Totally agree with you that playing him in shorter stretches may be better. His decision making needs help, and being coached on the bench while watching play should help him (wish we still had Wojo for this, but I'm fine with Scheyer/Capel doing it). But honestly, I think it's safe to say he's not the freshman PG savior we were led to believe. I want him to do well, but I do find myself cringing every time he shoots a jumper (25% from 3 sucks). He reminds me of a much less talented Starbury at his point, which isn't really a good thing given the importance of his role/minutes on this team.

This team will only go as far as Duval's decision making will allow them to go. Which would stand to makes sense to play him shorter stretches as you mentioned. He's a dribble drive guard and getting into the lane with two dominate bigs of offense is tough for him considering the little amount of real estate down there and and we all know his perimeter shooting is leaving a lot to be desired at this point.

Off the bench, 20-22 minutes a game he could be a great change of pace sixth man. I'd love to see Allen, AOC, Trent, Bagley & Carter start. It spreads the floor for Duke and they have another reliable shooter with AOC out there.

[UrinalCake]

Start Allen at point with O’Connell. When Bagley or Carter come out, put Duval in and let him dominate the ball with a smaller lineup.

[jv001]

The foul call for Duval diving on top of a player was not BS. It was the right call. You can't just dive on top of someone.

But yes, the team played better with Duval on the floor last night. Whether or not that is causal, I don't know. I totally agree that he offers stuff that nobody else at Duke (possibly ever) can offer. And we absolutely need him to win it all. But if we are going to note his +/- in a 20-minute sample from last night, it is also worth noting that he does have the worst +/- on the season of any of the starters.

I at first thought that the foul on Duval against Berry was BS, but after looking at it again, Duval gave him a little chest bump at the end of the play. It wasn't a hard foul and most times would not have been called, but it was. I can't say that Duval was wrong with the little bump because I see it in slow motion and Trevon is playing at break neck speed most of time. The play where he jumped on the cheat player was a foul. GoDuke!

[devildeac]

[QUOTE=CDu;1039500]That it isn't consistently called a foul doesn't mean that it wasn't the correct call. It certainly wasn't a BS call. You can say that it was a foul that often incorrectly goes as a no-call. But it was by no means a BS call. He committed a foul. Sometimes players get lucky and officials don't call that foul. But he committed a foul. And he correctly got called for it.[/QUOTE

Where have we seen this? Ah yes, the swinging elbows debate from the UVA game. Why is it that you find it so very difficult to understand the frustration Duke fans feel with the inconsistent way the rules are applied? Your take on these situations reminds me of Inspector Javert.

Another example of the way rules are inconsistently applied was Javin's final foul. He reaches in to grab the ball and the whistle automatically blows as if the official anticipated him fouling instead of trying for a tie-up. That very same play happened against Louisville and cost them the game as the refs had no problem letting the Miami player rip the ball away. Maybe some home cooking, but again as a Duke fan I'd like to see things called on a consistent basis.

Well, At the End of the Day on Wednesday, uh no posted that he Dreamed a Dream and wondered What Have I Done and I also wondered Who Am I after the Confrontation, thinking we were Master of the House but then realized we were only in a Castle on a Cloud and had to Look Down like Little People because In My Life, I still have One Day More, but, as the Duke MBB program, we are really On My Own and failed to defend against The Attack. I'll still request Come to Me, have a Drink with Me, knowing the ACC is a Dog Eat Dog league, Turning is not an option, there'll be Empty Chairs at Empty Tables at the end of the season and ACCT because Duke will be A Beggar at the Feast.

I'm done now because I count myself among Les Misérables since last PM.

[Furniture]

I think it's fair to question the validity of that loose ball call with so much inconsistency on loose ball foul call in those situations. I've seen players dive onto other players and never get called for it. Given how the game was being officiated to that point, it was surprising to see that called a foul.
Inconsistency on this forum too. Some call diving after/
on a ball a true Duke player worthy of the Duke name on his shirt. In this case it was a dumb foul by a OAD player who doesn’t give a crap about playing for Duke!!

[Bob Green]

Start Allen at point with O’Connell.

The concern I have with your suggestion is O'Connell is defensive challenged.

[rsvman]

The concern I have with your suggestion is O'Connell is defensive challenged.

Not sure he could play worse defensively than Duval did against "u"nc, though.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Inconsistency on this forum too. Some call diving after/on a ball a true Duke player worthy of the Duke name on his shirt. In this case it was a dumb foul by a OAD player who doesn’t give a crap about playing for Duke!!

A little too on the nose here. That was an excusable mistake for me because it showed heart and it's never called a foul. There are some fouls that you don't mind.

[fidel]

I think it's fair to question the validity of that loose ball call with so much inconsistency on loose ball foul call in those situations. I've seen players dive onto other players and never get called for it. Given how the game was being officiated to that point, it was surprising to see that called a foul.

If you question that call, then aren't you questioning all calls in a game? And if so, isn't that questioning the validity of all calls by law enforcement in the United States of America?

[Steven43]

As K said though, we would have won if we had just controlled the boards in the second half. UNC got some lucky bounces, but were also good at just tipping the ball out to their guards when we didn’t immediately control the defensive rebound. We need more effort and sense of urgency on those defensive rebounds particularly from the guards/perimeter players.

Does anyone know what the he## is going on with UNC outhustling, outcoaching, and outsmarting Duke? It never used to be that way. How could Duke allow so many open looks for 3’s? The Heels would have been down by 12-14 points at the half if Duke had prevented a few of those 3’s with better defense, which they easily could have done.

A big lead at the half would have made their second half run less likely to occur as they would have been dispirited going to the locker room and Duke would have been very confident. The psychological battle is huge in college basketball, especially with a young team. I don’t know exactly what it is, but something is just a bit off with this team.

[Steven43]

I just posted this same thing in the post game thread. The first half comeback was complemented by some mystery calls. So frustrating.



What a terrible call that was. I can't even remember the last time I've seen that call made. But hey, don't blame the refs they had nothing to do with the game.

As for Duval, what a strange game for him. Did some great stuff and some bad stuff, played defense pretty poorly and ended up with a +/- that basically proves that the stat is best used over large sample sizes. I know guys don't like him being criticized but is there a harsher criticism than getting benched during this game by Coach K.

I'm not sure what to do with him. In the first half he drove and kicked to an open Trent (poor pass but at least he made the pass). Trent hit the 3 and we were like "Finally! Let's see more of that". Thought he'd finally start to turn the corner. Didn't work out that way, though.

I think we will be a better team with TD on the court than having him off. I also think that we need to play him in shorter stretches where he subs out and gets coached about how to maximize his usefulness on the court. Perhaps it's been a mistake for him to just be thrown out to play so many minutes all season. We might have needed to bring him along a little more slowly. Being a freshman PG is hard and he's doing a pretty good job for the most part...I think one thing that causes frustration is that we can see so much potential and we just want it realized because we need it.
I’m starting to think Trevon is neither a PG nor a SG, though he has elements of both within his game. As far as PG goes he has a decent handle but not great; his passing ability is decent but not great; he tends to look for his own shot much more than a pass-first PG typically does; and he doesn’t see the floor particular well, often trying passes that are easily stolen. As far as SG goes he simply is not nearly a good enough shooter, period.

He is Russel Westbrook with less athleticism and less ferocious desire to exert his will. He has great potential, particularly if he can figure out how to consistently make open looks from outside. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen this season.

[Neals384]

I was astounded by his dunk in the first half. Sure he is athletic but OMG that was superman stuff. So, where is that Duval the rest of the time?

[Saratoga2]

The concern I have with your suggestion is O'Connell is defensive challenged.

I don't share your view of AOC. He is around 6'6", long, agile and fairly explosive. I would like him to keep a hand up when he defends (like UVA players), but I thought he played well defensively against UNC. The kid is not particularly strong and shouldn't be put in the position of defending a big near the basket, but neither should Grayson and he found himself in that position of a switch at least two times by my recollection of the UNC game. In my view, given the weaknesses of both Duval and Allen this year, AOC should be getting 6th man minutes as a valued sub and may well start getting 15 or more minutes going forward.

[jv001]

A little too on the nose here. That was an excusable mistake for me because it showed heart and it's never called a foul. There are some fouls that you don't mind.

I commend Trevon for his hustle on this play but it is a foul. However it's hardly ever called and it was not a dumb play. I do believe that Trevon and Javin have been singled out by refs this season for some fouls that were not actually fouls. I think a lot of refs make up their minds before the play actually happens on certain players and Trevon and Javin happen to be two of the unlucky ones. GoDuke!

[devildeac]

I commend Trevon for his hustle on this play but it is a foul. However it's hardly ever called and it was not a dumb play. I do believe that Trevon and Javin have been singled out by refs this season for some fouls that were not actually fouls. I think a lot of refs make up their minds before the play actually happens on certain players and Trevon and Javin happen to be two of the unlucky ones. GoDuke!

Call it the Ewing Effect. Or should that be the Shav Rule. :mad:

[jv001]

Call it the Ewing Effect. Or should that be the Shav Rule. :mad:

Good catch and you can throw in Josh Hairston and Tyler Thornton. But Tyler got his money's worth when he actually fouled, which was a lot. :cool: GoDuke!

[Dub]

This team will only go as far as Duval's decision making will allow them to go. Which would stand to makes sense to play him shorter stretches as you mentioned. He's a dribble drive guard and getting into the lane with two dominate bigs of offense is tough for him considering the little amount of real estate down there and and we all know his perimeter shooting is leaving a lot to be desired at this point.

Off the bench, 20-22 minutes a game he could be a great change of pace sixth man. I'd love to see Allen, AOC, Trent, Bagley & Carter start. It spreads the floor for Duke and they have another reliable shooter with AOC out there.

For starters Grayson is not a PG. He’s lost the ability to create his own shot and he needs to be a scorer for us to be effective. AOC plays terrible defense and is usually wayyy out of position. Trent plays pretty solid D but has limited lateral quickness against quicker wings. As for Bagley and Carter, Carter is def the enforcer between the 2, though I believe Bagley’s offense has suffered more recently because he’s focused more on the defensive end.

In your proposed starting lineup, who’s going to guard any tourney-caliber backcourt? Who is going to create any offense? You have 3 catch and shoot players on the wing, an athletic freak in Bagley, and Carter. Perhaps, Grayson feeds the post better than Trevon (a definite weak point in his game). IMO - a Trevon Duval that plays 20 mins a game limits a large part of what makes us the “most talented team in the nation “. Trevon certainly needs to make more assertive decisions. He seems to get stuck in between scoring and distributing mid-drive. Heck, I wish he would just drive to score 80% of his drives. He has elite level athleticism (see his dunk vs UNC). He needs to be more Russell-like in his approach. It opens up everything on offense.

Ultimately it comes down to how he’s being coached and his execution of that said coaching. He seems to play best when he just plays freely (admittedly could be the anti-K approach). Anyway, he’s the X factor for us to make a serious run. I don’t see that happening with the current version of Grayson Allen.

[jv001]

For starters Grayson is not a PG. He’s lost the ability to create his own shot and he needs to be a scorer for us to be effective. AOC plays terrible defense and is usually wayyy out of position. Trent plays pretty solid D but has limited lateral quickness against quicker wings. As for Bagley and Carter, Carter is def the enforcer between the 2, though I believe Bagley’s offense has suffered more recently because he’s focused more on the defensive end.

In your proposed starting lineup, who’s going to guard any tourney-caliber backcourt? Who is going to create any offense? You have 3 catch and shoot players on the wing, an athletic freak in Bagley, and Carter. Perhaps, Grayson feeds the post better than Trevon (a definite weak point in his game). IMO - a Trevon Duval that plays 20 mins a game limits a large part of what makes us the “most talented team in the nation “. Trevon certainly needs to make more assertive decisions. He seems to get stuck in between scoring and distributing mid-drive. Heck, I wish he would just drive to score 80% of his drives. He has elite level athleticism (see his dunk vs UNC). He needs to be more Russell-like in his approach. It opens up everything on offense.

Ultimately it comes down to how he’s being coached and his execution of that said coaching. He seems to play best when he just plays freely (admittedly could be the anti-K approach). Anyway, he’s the X factor for us to make a serious run. I don’t see that happening with the current version of Grayson Allen.

I agree Grayson should not be the point guard, and we need Duval to be the man at the point. But it's clear in half court sets, Grayson does a better job of getting our front line the ball. Look at his assists to turnovers in ACC play compared to Duval. We need for Trevon to settle down and be the point guard that Coach K wants him to be. Drive the ball when there's an opening. If the lane closes, dish the ball to a big or Gary or Grayson on the wing. What Trevon has been doing is driving the ball into the lane when there are more of their guys than there is of our guys. He is great at driving the ball one on one and usually scores or gets fouled. I think he can figure it out and I'm sure it's hard for him because he could get away with it in high school. Let's see how it plays out. GoDuke!

[Skydog]

Forget the +/- Take a look at these tempo stats.

https://www.scacchoops.com/viewhdgame.asp?hSchedule=45554&bView=6#

Duval had a 40% usage rate while having the worst ORTG on the team, he also had the 2nd worst DRTG on the team beating out Jack White by the tiniest of margins. Overall his rating of -7.1 was the worst of any player on either team last night

(I'm repeating myself somewhat - I posted a lot of this on another thread. But I think it's justified since the best objective measures of performance we have available seem to be largely ignored when it comes to the often polarized discussions about Duval.)

I agree with Ian. +/- is not at all a useful measure of a players performance in a single game. If I come into the game for 5 minutes and during that time Trent makes four 3's and Bagley blocks every shot by the opponent who dribbles past me then my +/- is going to great even though I suck.

Luckily we have individual tempo/possession based stats, objective and accurate tools to measure how a player does in a particular game, especially on offense. We get the same # of possessions as our opponents so what we do with each possession matters.

So how did Trevon look objectively speaking? According to Kenpom when Trevon was on the floor he burned through almost half of the teams possessions (44%) and averaged 0.8 pts for each of those possessions. The low OE explanation is shockingly simple - he turned the ball over 4 times and missed 7 of his 9 shots from the field. (No matter how emphatic that dunk was, it was still only 2 points.) That made him by far the least efficient player on the floor, and it wasn't close. Changing a foul call or two wouldn't have changed this fact.

The team as a whole however averaged 1.20 ppp, just behind UNC's 1.26 pp. That means we had a number of very efficient performers partially balancing out Duvals low OE. Bagley averaged 1.27 ppp, Carter 1.28 ppp, Allen 1.04, Trent 1.41, AOC also 1.41, and Bolden an outstanding 1.71 ppp. So except for Allen and Duval all our players were very, very efficient offensively. Problem was that our efficient players were also our low usage player. Trevon's 44% poss use rate was twice as high as our 2nd highest usage player - Bagley at 22%. Rest of the team: Trent used 15% of the possession when he was on the floor, Carter 14%, Allen 17%, AOC 19% and Bolden 11%. So Duval, our least efficient scorer, is burning through possessions at 2 to 4 times the rate of our most efficient scorers.* Hard to win games like that.

*For the technically minded - Yes, there is some confounding between efficiency and usage. A turnover simultaneously decreases the former and increases the latter and that explains a tiny bit of the low eff/high usage association. However taking a lot of shots is the main way players increase their possession usage. That's why some players realize they aren't great shooters so they are very selective about when and where they take their shots. That way they help themselves (maximize their OE's) and their hurt by not taking a bunch of low % shots.

tldr version: In this game Duval combination of very low offensive efficiency and extremely high possession usage was a killer for us. For Duke to have any shot of making a run Duval he has to both raise his OE and lower his poss %. He can do that by limiting turnovers, being much more selective with his drives and shots, and by getting our very high efficiency scorers more involved in the game.