PDA

View Full Version : This Week in the ACC: 2/5-2/11



pfrduke
02-05-2018, 04:12 PM
The ACC has stratified pretty nicely to this point of the season - there are 9 teams .500 and above and all of them are at least strong candidates for NCAA bids (if not essentially locks). The bottom 6 teams have no one other than Syracuse that has a realistic chance of making the tourney without going undefeated in Brooklyn (and I would characterize even Syracuse's chances as slim). UVA basically has the 1 seed locked up, Duke and Clemson each control their own destiny in terms of claiming the 2 seed (and have the slightest bit of breathing room over a bunch of teams with 4 conference losses).

Monday
[33]Louisville (6-4) (-6) hosts [51]Syracuse (4-6) (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday
[42]Notre Dame (3-7) (-8) hosts [81]Boston College (4-6) (8:00, ACCNE)

Wednesday
[21]Florida State (6-5) (+5) hosts [2]Virginia (11-0) (7:00, ACCNE) - depending on your views of the relative difficulty of FSU and Miami, this is likely the hardest game left on Virginia's schedule
[28]Miami (6-4) (-10) hosts [93]Wake Forest (2-9) (7:00, ESPN2)
[41]Virginia Tech (5-5) (-5) hosts [57]NC State (6-4) (9:00, ACCNE)

Thursday
[33]Louisville (6-4) (-10) hosts [109]Georgia Tech (4-6) (7:00, ESPN2)
[17]Clemson (8-3) (-19) hosts [208]Pittsburgh (0-11) (7:00, ACCNE)
[12]North Carolina (6-5) (+1) hosts [4]Duke (7-3) (8:00, ESPN)

Friday is dark

Saturday
[57]NC State (6-4) (+3) hosts [12]North Carolina (6-5) (2:00, ACCNE)
[81]Boston College (4-6) (+3) hosts [28]Miami (6-4) (2:00, ACCNE)
[42]Notre Dame (3-7) (-1) hosts [21]Florida State (6-5) (4:00, ESPN2)
[2]Virginia (11-0) (-14) hosts [41]Virginia Tech (5-5) (6:00, ESPN)

Sunday
[208]Pittsburgh (0-11) (+10) hosts [33]Louisville (6-4) (1:00, ACCNE)
[51]Syracuse (4-6) (-7) hosts [93]Wake Forest (2-9) (1:00, ACCNE)
[109]Georgia Tech (4-6) (+11) hosts [4]Duke (7-3) (6:00, ESPNU)

ACC Non-Conference Record: 151-39
ACC v. Power 6: 29-22

pfrduke
02-05-2018, 04:18 PM
Also, to steal from a Gasaway standby, here's how the teams stand up in efficiency margin (unadjusted, conference play only):

Virginia: +21.2
Duke: +15.7
North Carolina: +7.3
Louisville: +6.4
Clemson: +3.1
Florida State: +2.2
Miami: +1.9
Syracuse: +0.6
NC State: -2.9
Virginia Tech: -3.0
Georgia Tech: -3.6
Notre Dame: -3.8
Boston College: -5.7
Wake Forest: -11.0
Pittsburgh: -27.3 (conference worst offense AND defense - quite an accomplishment (not sure that's the right word))

PackMan97
02-05-2018, 04:39 PM
^ Fascinating that a team like UNC is so underperforming it's efficiency rating. Is there any explination as to why this would be so? I'm not familiar with the metric or would know where to source the game by game data to look into the matter.
--------------------------------

Onto the +/- for this week. Things are starting to shake out and the +/- almost mirrors (or does it exactly?) the ACC standings. . Clemson and UVA remain the only unbeaten at home teams in conference play. Clemson continue to power ahead despite their injury, but yet to win against a decent team away from Littlejohn. Boston College, Wake and Pitt remain the only teams to still be sitting on road goose eggs.


TEAM +/- CONF OVERALL
Virginia +5 11-0 22-1 @VT, @GT, @WF, @Duke, @Syracuse
Clemson +3 8-3 19-4 @BC, @GT, @Wake
Duke +2 7-3 19-4 @Pitt, @UM, @WF, (UVa)
Miami +2 6-4 17-5 @NCSU, @Pitt, @VT, (Duke)
NC State +1 6-4 16-7 @Pitt, @Cheats, (UM)
Louisville +1 6-4 16-7 @ND, @FSU, (FSU)
Florida State +1 6-5 17-6 @VT, @UL, (UL)
North Carolina 0 6-5 17-7 @ND, (@NCSU)
Virginia Tech 0 5-5 16-7 @WF, @ND, @BC, (FSU, UVa, Miami)
Georgia Tech -1 4-6 11-12 @Pitt, (UVa, Clemson)
Syracuse -1 4-6 15-8 @Pitt, (ND, UVA)
Boston College -2 4-6 14-9 (Clemson,VT)
Notre Dame -2 3-7 13-10 @Cuse, (UL, Cheats, VT)
Wake Forest -4 2-9 9-14 (Duke, UVa, VT, Clemson)
Pittsburgh -5 0-11 8-16 (UM, Duke, GT, Syracuse, NCSU)

pfrduke
02-05-2018, 04:50 PM
^ Fascinating that a team like UNC is so underperforming it's efficiency rating. Is there any explination as to why this would be so? I'm not familiar with the metric or would know where to source the game by game data to look into the matter.
--------------------------------

Onto the +/- for this week. Things are starting to shake out and the +/- almost mirrors (or does it exactly?) the ACC standings. . Clemson and UVA remain the only unbeaten at home teams in conference play. Clemson continue to power ahead despite their injury, but yet to win against a decent team away from Littlejohn. Boston College, Wake and Pitt remain the only teams to still be sitting on road goose eggs.


TEAM +/- CONF OVERALL
Virginia +5 11-0 22-1 @VT, @GT, @WF, @Duke, @Syracuse
Clemson +3 8-3 19-4 @BC, @GT, @Wake
Duke +2 7-3 19-4 @Pitt, @UM, @WF, (UVa)
Miami +2 6-4 17-5 @NCSU, @Pitt, @VT, (Duke)
NC State +1 6-4 16-7 @Pitt, @Cheats, (UM)
Louisville +1 6-4 16-7 @ND, @FSU, (FSU)
Florida State +1 6-5 17-6 @VT, @UL, (UL)
North Carolina 0 6-5 17-7 @ND, (@NCSU)
Virginia Tech 0 5-5 16-7 @WF, @ND, @BC, (FSU, UVa, Miami)
Georgia Tech -1 4-6 11-12 @Pitt, (UVa, Clemson)
Syracuse -1 4-6 15-8 @Pitt, (ND, UVA)
Boston College -2 4-6 14-9 (Clemson,VT)
Notre Dame -2 3-7 13-10 @Cuse, (UL, Cheats, VT)
Wake Forest -4 2-9 9-14 (Duke, UVa, VT, Clemson)
Pittsburgh -5 0-11 8-16 (UM, Duke, GT, Syracuse, NCSU)


Carolina has two wins of 30 points and 31 points that goose the numbers a bit, although you also have to be reasonably good to get 30-point victories. In the other 9 games, UNC is -0.8.

CDu
02-05-2018, 04:54 PM
Minor quibble, but UNC is 6-5 in conference, not 6-4.

flyingdutchdevil
02-05-2018, 04:57 PM
Minor quibble, but UNC is 6-5 in conference, not 6-4.

That's a major quibble, not a minor one.

pfrduke
02-05-2018, 04:58 PM
Minor quibble, but UNC is 6-5 in conference, not 6-4.

Never a minor quibble to ensure UNC has the correct number of losses. I’ll fix.

ncexnyc
02-05-2018, 09:26 PM
It would appear my faith in the Cards was misplaced and those that thought they'd come back to the pack were correct.

Another home loss this time to an undermanned Cuze team. Some really dumb play down the stretch again. After trailing by double digits they cut the lead to four, by pounding the ball into Mahmoud and Spaulding. Then comes that infamous four point swing we see so often in basketball. Down four, Snider gets the ball and pushes it up the court. For some strange reason they try for the lob and whiff on it. The Orangemen come right back down and hit a basket and what should have been a 2 point deficit is suddenly a 6 point deficit and of course Boeheim starts taking the air out of the ball.

PackMan97
02-05-2018, 10:24 PM
It would appear my faith in the Cards was misplaced and those that thought they'd come back to the pack were correct

I think Louisville NCAAT hopes are in trouble. They are now 1-8 vs RPI top 50.

JasonEvans
02-06-2018, 12:38 AM
I think Louisville NCAAT hopes are in trouble.

I think David Padget's long-term job prospects are in trouble too.

W&LHoo
02-06-2018, 10:11 AM
I think David Padget's long-term job prospects are in trouble too.

I agree, but that seems like it'll be an error.

Padget has a great deal of talent on the squad, but he's obviously dealing with a tremendously disruptive situation. KenPom actually factors in loss of coach when he makes projections and while I don't have the subscription that would permit me to verify this, I'd be stunned if Padget hadn't outperformed that projection.

OldPhiKap
02-06-2018, 10:14 AM
Someone once told me that the secret to life wasn't playing the good hands, it was playing the bad hands well.

Padgett has been dealt a seriously messed up hand. I don't know what Louisville's long-term thoughts are obviously, but it would seem to me that if Padgett brings some stability to the program he has taken care of job number one. Making the tourney, let alone making noise in the tourney, is above and beyond.

Troublemaker
02-06-2018, 11:10 AM
I agree, but that seems like it'll be an error.

Padget has a great deal of talent on the squad, but he's obviously dealing with a tremendously disruptive situation. KenPom actually factors in loss of coach when he makes projections and while I don't have the subscription that would permit me to verify this, I'd be stunned if Padget hadn't outperformed that projection.

You don't need a subscription to see the preseason projections, and actually, I don't even think subscribers have access to that. Just use the internet archive. On November 9th, before the season started (https://web.archive.org/web/20171109105458/https://kenpom.com/), kenpom's projections had Louisville as #16 in the country (#22 on offense, #13 on defense). Currently, Louisville is #37 in the country (#62 on offense, #24 on defense).

What was once expected to be a top-10 team with Pitino is now a 16-8 (6-5 ACC) team that is probably a 10 seed (i.e. one of the final 8 teams in the NCAA tournament) with Padgett.

PackMan97
02-06-2018, 11:30 AM
What was once expected to be a top-10 team with Pitino is now a 16-8 (6-5 ACC) team that is probably a 10 seed (i.e. one of the final 8 teams in the NCAA tournament) with Padgett.

Didn't they also lose a top recruit, Brian Bowen, when the scandal went down?

Troublemaker
02-06-2018, 11:50 AM
Didn't they also lose a top recruit, Brian Bowen, when the scandal went down?

They sure did and he would've helped. Still, I don't think Bowen's the difference between where they were projected to be and where they are now.

But the big picture, though, is that a program of Louisville's stature (not top-5 but probably top-20 in the country, right?) would never have hired a head coach without head coaching experience under normal circumstances. The only reason Padgett has the head coaching job is because of Pitino's shenanigans. Padgett's career path should've been to get his first head coaching experience at a low or mid-major and show that he can coach there before slowly climbing the ladder.

And Padgett will return to that career path after this season when Louisville hires someone else to be their head coach.

devildeac
02-06-2018, 07:43 PM
If you're in South Bend, here's a chance for a cheap date:

https://www.vividseats.com/ncaab/notre-dame-fighting-irish-tickets/notre-dame-2-6-2456608.html

Tickets as low as $2-3 (no typo):eek:.

(I do not work for vividseats, nor do I have any tickets for sale. Link provided for amusement purposes only.)

English
02-07-2018, 10:39 AM
Big games tonight--perhaps none bigger* than the UVa @ FSU game. It looks like UVa is favored by 3pts (Vegas) or 5pts (KenPom). It could be the Hoos toughest remaining conference test pre-ACCT (they play Miami in JPJ later).

The NCSU @ VaTech tilt is another interesting matchup, given State's recent resurgence and VaTech's push toward the top tier of the standings. Does State do State things on the road again?


*Perhaps not that big WRT conference standings, since, well, ya know, UVa probably has this thing on lock already. But still, big from an "undefeated in conference play" standpoint. And big for FSU's effort at a double-bye.

CDu
02-07-2018, 10:48 AM
Big games tonight--perhaps none bigger* than the UVa @ FSU game. It looks like UVa is favored by 3pts (Vegas) or 5pts (KenPom). It could be the Hoos toughest remaining conference test pre-ACCT (they play Miami in JPJ later).

The NCSU @ VaTech tilt is another interesting matchup, given State's recent resurgence and VaTech's push toward the top tier of the standings. Does State do State things on the road again?


*Perhaps not that big WRT conference standings, since, well, ya know, UVa probably has this thing on lock already. But still, big from an "undefeated in conference play" standpoint. And big for FSU's effort at a double-bye.

That Miami game is in Coral Gables, not JPJ. So my guess is that will be the toughest game left. Although it's pretty darn close. They also have to go to Louisville, although the Cards are probably a slight step down from FSU and Miami.

Big game for State though. If they can win that one, they are putting themselves in a very nice spot for a tourney bid. They would be 7-4, with games @Syracuse, @Ga Tech, and @Wake left along with a game hosting BC. They could be looking at an 11-7 ACC season (or better if they can win at home against Louisville and/or UNC) if they beat Va Tech.

PackMan97
02-07-2018, 10:54 AM
The NCSU @ VaTech tilt is another interesting matchup, given State's recent resurgence and VaTech's push toward the top tier of the standings. Does State do State things on the road again?


State has been doing very un-State things this season. Winning against Top 10 teams. Beating Duke and Carolina in the same season. Winning the game after beating Duke or Carolina. Winning back to back ACC road games.

Getting the W would certainly put State in a good spot. It's not a "must win" game, but it will definitely make things a lot easier if we do and takes a lot of pressure off the game with Cheats this weekend. I still feel that State doesn't need any more quality wins, we just need wins. Four more and we are dancing comfortably and we have 8 left plus at least one ACCT game.

ncexnyc
02-07-2018, 12:03 PM
An interesting set of games tonight that may go a long way in answering some questions for basketball fans here in the ACC.

Does the Lonnie Walker Jr. show continue in Miami or does Wake show us they are finally learning how to close games?

Can State show they are truly a top tier ACC team?

Does UVA continue to challenge Nova for the claim as the best team in college basketball or does FSU show us their early season woes are past them?

DukieInBrasil
02-07-2018, 12:04 PM
I'm pulling for an FSU upset of UVA, a road victory for NCSU over VaTech, and for Miami to beat WF, if only to get them on a roll to beat UVA.

devildeac
02-07-2018, 08:24 PM
J. Bilas:

"Virginia down by 10 to fsu at the half. Does that mean it's more like being down 20? 30?"


(fake quote)

CameronDuke
02-07-2018, 09:11 PM
Virginia wins again, this time on the road at FSU to get to 23-1, 12-0. They are the best team in the ACC right now and it isn't even that close. They kept their perfect ACC season alive. Also, since St. John's just beat Villanova, if Virginia beats Virginia Tech Saturday at Virginia, then Virginia should be ranked 1st in the country next week. What a team they have. I don't see them losing a game the rest of the season.

Troublemaker
02-07-2018, 09:19 PM
Virginia wins again, this time on the road at FSU to get to 23-1, 12-0. They are the best team in the ACC right now and it isn't even that close. They kept their perfect ACC season alive. Also, since St. John's just beat Villanova, if Virginia beats Virginia Tech Saturday at Virginia, then Virginia should be ranked 1st in the country next week. What a team they have. I don't see them losing a game the rest of the season.

That sound you hear is the sound of dozens of DBRers typing, trying to entice you into a beer or pie bet.

CameronDuke
02-07-2018, 09:23 PM
Lol, I won't bet a cold one on it but I still don't predict them to lose. They could get upset but I see them being favored in every game they play from here on out. Just a dominant team right now. I thought tonight would be their toughest road game other than at Duke. I also keep telling people if you get Virginia down early into a big deficit, which they rarely get into, they may not have the offensive firepower to fight back. They were down 10 at the half tonight and went on a 9-0 run early in the second half to get back into it. Their opponents have to play nearly a perfect game in all aspects to beat them. They just have so many more offensive weapons this year than they've had in Guy, Jerome, Hall, Hunter, and even Wilkins hit a big basket late.

84Duke
02-07-2018, 09:26 PM
Lol, I won't bet a cold one on it but I still don't predict them to lose. They could get upset but I see them being favored in every game they play from here on out. Just a dominant team right now. I thought tonight would be their toughest road game other than at Duke. I also keep telling people if you get Virginia down early into a big deficit, which they rarely get into, they may not have the offensive firepower to fight back. They were down 10 at the half tonight and went on a 9-0 run early in the second half to get back into it. Their opponents have to play nearly a perfect game in all aspects to beat them. They just have so many more offensive weapons this year than they've had in Guy, Jerome, Hall, Hunter, and even Wilkins hit a big basket late.

Hasn’t Duke been favored in every game this year? And Duke has lost 4 times, as we all know.

jhmoss1812
02-07-2018, 09:26 PM
Virginia wins again, this time on the road at FSU to get to 23-1, 12-0. They are the best team in the ACC right now and it isn't even that close. They kept their perfect ACC season alive. Also, since St. John's just beat Villanova, if Virginia beats Virginia Tech Saturday at Virginia, then Virginia should be ranked 1st in the country next week. What a team they have. I don't see them losing a game the rest of the season.

If VT prevents UVA from being #1 on Monday, you'll never hear from me again.

CameronDuke
02-07-2018, 09:29 PM
Hasn’t Duke been favored in every game this year? And Duke has lost 4 times, as we all know.

I'm not sure if Duke has been favored in every game thus far this year (maybe the Michigan State game they weren't) but I haven't predicted Duke to lose any of their 4 losses either in my own mind, or even thought it. I still wholeheartedly believe Virginia won't lose the rest of the year. Just got a feeling about them this season. They're one of the most special college basketball teams I have witnessed in my entire viewing career as a college basketball fan. Just giving them their due props on a run we may not see again for a long time (undefeated through 12 ACC games) given the strength of the conference.

Troublemaker
02-07-2018, 09:29 PM
Lol, I won't bet a cold one on it but I still don't predict them to lose. They could get upset but I see them being favored in every game they play from here on out. Just a dominant team right now. I thought tonight would be their toughest road game other than at Duke. I also keep telling people if you get Virginia down early into a big deficit, which they rarely get into, they may not have the offensive firepower to fight back. They were down 10 at the half tonight and went on a 9-0 run early in the second half to get back into it. Their opponents have to play nearly a perfect game in all aspects to beat them. They just have so many more offensive weapons this year than they've had in Guy, Jerome, Hall, Hunter, and even Wilkins hit a big basket late.

Right, when they lose, it'll be an upset. But statistically, odds are they'll be upset. Even if you're a 90% favorite in every game (and UVA won't be that), that 10% will occur at some point.

CameronDuke
02-07-2018, 09:32 PM
Right, when they lose, it'll be an upset. But statistically, odds are they'll be upset. Even if you're a 90% favorite in every game (and UVA won't be that), that 10% will occur at some point.

Good points - I'll still take them to run the table here on out at 38-1 to an ACC regular season, ACC tournament, and NCAA National Championship. And I am stone cold sober tonight typing this!

The ONLY games I think could be part of that 10% you mentioned are vs Duke in the ACC title game or vs Duke in the final four or national championship game :)

duke4ever19
02-07-2018, 09:42 PM
Lol, I won't bet a cold one on it but I still don't predict them to lose. They could get upset but I see them being favored in every game they play from here on out. Just a dominant team right now. I thought tonight would be their toughest road game other than at Duke. I also keep telling people if you get Virginia down early into a big deficit, which they rarely get into, they may not have the offensive firepower to fight back. They were down 10 at the half tonight and went on a 9-0 run early in the second half to get back into it. Their opponents have to play nearly a perfect game in all aspects to beat them. They just have so many more offensive weapons this year than they've had in Guy, Jerome, Hall, Hunter, and even Wilkins hit a big basket late.

Eh, I think Duke can beat UVA without playing its best game. We can beat anyone without playing our best game.

We almost took those guys down with Grayson and Gary scoring in single digits. Sure, UVA had something to do with that, but I also think those two just had a rough night shooting in general. I'll give UVA all the props in the world if they can replicate that result if we meet in the ACC Tournament.

CDu
02-07-2018, 09:49 PM
Eh, I think Duke can beat UVA without playing its best game. We can beat anyone without playing our best game.

We almost took those guys down with Grayson and Gary scoring in single digits. Sure, UVA had something to do with that, but I also think those two just had a rough night shooting in general. I'll give UVA all the props in the world if they can replicate that result if we meet in the ACC Tournament.

Both teams playing at their best, Duke wins hands down. The problem is that we haven’t played at (or even near) our best for more than about 10-15 minutes in a game. So it becomes a question of how close each team can get to their best. UVa seems to have a higher floor, but a clearly lower ceiling.

I just hope we can get close enough to playing, smart, fully engaged bball for 30+ minutes. If we do, look out. If we don’t there will likely continue to be lots of turbulence.

CameronDuke
02-07-2018, 09:54 PM
Eh, I think Duke can beat UVA without playing its best game. We can beat anyone without playing our best game.

We almost took those guys down with Grayson and Gary scoring in single digits. Sure, UVA had something to do with that, but I also think those two just had a rough night shooting in general. I'll give UVA all the props in the world if they can replicate that result if we meet in the ACC Tournament.

I agree that Duke at the best beats Virginia at their best but no one in the ACC has played their best vs Virginia this season thus far and that has everything to do with Virginia. They dictate how the game is going to be played and take other teams out of their game plans, style of play, and simply make you not look your best. Perhaps Grayson and Trent just had bad games against Virginia but I think the majority of that is Virginia simply makes you uncomfortable and look rattled at times.

UrinalCake
02-07-2018, 09:59 PM
Coming into the season a lot of us predicted that we would finish #1 in the conference with 3-ish losses. One of the KenPom predictions even said that the ACC winner would have five losses. So if we are somehow able to win out (and I know that’s assuming a lot) and finish second with three losses, would that be considered a disappointment? Or simply an amazing job by Virginia to vastly exceed expectations?

CDu
02-07-2018, 10:06 PM
Coming into the season a lot of us predicted that we would finish #1 in the conference with 3-ish losses. One of the KenPom predictions even said that the ACC winner would have five losses. So if we are somehow able to win out (and I know that’s assuming a lot) and finish second with three losses, would that be considered a disappointment? Or simply an amazing job by Virginia to vastly exceed expectations?

Yes.

(But much more the latter than the former)

CameronDuke
02-07-2018, 10:06 PM
Coming into the season a lot of us predicted that we would finish #1 in the conference with 3-ish losses. One of the KenPom predictions even said that the ACC winner would have five losses. So if we are somehow able to win out (and I know that’s assuming a lot) and finish second with three losses, would that be considered a disappointment? Or simply an amazing job by Virginia to vastly exceed expectations?

Amazing job by Virginia to vastly exceed expectations to me. Anyone know what they were picked preseason in the ACC? I want to say 4th or 5th? Anyone know the last team to win 12 straight ACC regular season games? I would guess it has been a while...

Wahoo2000
02-07-2018, 10:10 PM
Good points - I'll still take them to run the table here on out at 38-1 to an ACC regular season, ACC tournament, and NCAA National Championship. And I am stone cold sober tonight typing this!

The ONLY games I think could be part of that 10% you mentioned are vs Duke in the ACC title game or vs Duke in the final four or national championship game :)

Nice of you to say, but I'd call that crazy. We aren't 1991 UNLV, we aren't 1999 Duke, we aren't 2015 Kentucky. We're just not an insanely dominant team. Like someone mentioned perfectly upthread, our "floor" is very high. Many teams (FSU included) probably have the potential to be better than us based on overall pure talent/athleticism. We just consistently play closer to our potential than most teams out there. That's a credit to Bennett and his staff. I don't think we have ANY guys on our team with "elite skill" outside of maybe jumpshooting (which admittedly is an important one). I don't think there's a single guy on the team who is an insane physical specimen. Just not one single REALLY elite athlete on the team.

Addressing the FSU game tonight - the intensity they brought from the tip was insane. Best consistent effort I've seen from an opponent over 40 minutes (or right up there with WVU). They did something VERY rare - we looked uncomfortable and sped up for a huuuuge chunk of the game. If they were a little better on the FT line, that game is totally even down the stretch.

On our side, missing Nigel Johnson (suspension- team rules violation) REEEAAALLLY hurt us tonight. He's always a fantastic ballhandler vs non-trapping pressure. Could've really helped to limit the workload for Guy/Jerome/Hall (each at 38+ min) and allowed them to play more off the ball. Hopefully those guys don't get lagged from the effort tonight and are ready for VT on Saturday. If so, we'll have to depend on the adrenaline surge of Gameday plus a win-and-you're-number-1 situation to get by. Proud of my guys today though. Things were going "very not well" and they kept their heads up vs a good opponent in a really raucous environment and got the W.

Wahoo2000
02-07-2018, 10:16 PM
Amazing job by Virginia to vastly exceed expectations to me. Anyone know what they were picked preseason in the ACC? I want to say 4th or 5th? Anyone know the last team to win 12 straight ACC regular season games? I would guess it has been a while...

Pretty sure we were 6th in the ACC preseason media picks.

UVA won 13 straight ACC contests in 2014 between losses @Duke (nice roll, Rasheed) and @Maryland (in OT). That was also part of a crazy streak from Jan 2014 until Feb 2017 where we didn't lose a single game (in like 120 contests) by double digits.

CameronDuke
02-07-2018, 10:18 PM
Nice of you to say, but I'd call that crazy. We aren't 1991 UNLV, we aren't 1999 Duke, we aren't 2015 Kentucky. We're just not an insanely dominant team. Like someone mentioned perfectly upthread, our "floor" is very high. Many teams (FSU included) probably have the potential to be better than us based on overall pure talent/athleticism. We just consistently play closer to our potential than most teams out there. That's a credit to Bennett and his staff. I don't think we have ANY guys on our team with "elite skill" outside of maybe jumpshooting (which admittedly is an important one). I don't think there's a single guy on the team who is an insane physical specimen. Just not one single REALLY elite athlete on the team.

Addressing the FSU game tonight - the intensity they brought from the tip was insane. Best consistent effort I've seen from an opponent over 40 minutes (or right up there with WVU). They did something VERY rare - we looked uncomfortable and sped up for a huuuuge chunk of the game. If they were a little better on the FT line, that game is totally even down the stretch.

On our side, missing Nigel Johnson (suspension- team rules violation) REEEAAALLLY hurt us tonight. He's always a fantastic ballhandler vs non-trapping pressure. Could've really helped to limit the workload for Guy/Jerome/Hall (each at 38+ min) and allowed them to play more off the ball. Hopefully those guys don't get lagged from the effort tonight and are ready for VT on Saturday. If so, we'll have to depend on the adrenaline surge of Gameday plus a win-and-you're-number-1 situation to get by. Proud of my guys today though. Things were going "very not well" and they kept their heads up vs a good opponent in a really raucous environment and got the W.

I think Hunter has elite athleticism. I also think Jerome has elite decision making when Bennett has him running the point, Wilkins is an elite defender, and Guy in a system that predicated on more of an uptempo style could average way more PPG than he does in Bennett's system. He can score from every level and his midrange game is underrated. And while I'll admit they aren't the most talented team like you mentioned and their ceiling isn't as high, the synergies they build from their experience (Wilkins and Hall are seniors and I think Hall/Salt are 23) and their ability to play as one and do whatever Bennett asks of them has exceeded more athletically gifted and talented teams almost every night out thus far (Duke, UNC, FSU to name a few).

They remind me a bit of Wichita State in 2013-2014 who went 35-0 then lost in the Round of 32 of the NCAAT (to Kentucky by a final score of 78-76). One difference is Virginia has a loss already and I don't see them losing on the first weekend of the NCAAT this year.

JasonEvans
02-07-2018, 10:53 PM
I'm not sure if Duke has been favored in every game thus far this year (maybe the Michigan State game they weren't)

Duke -MSU was officially a pick'em according to VegasInsider. Duke has been at least a 2.5 point favorite in every other game this year (Florida was 2.5, Virginia was 3.5, @ Miami was 4.5). We open as a 1-point favorite over UNC for tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if that line moves by the time the game tips off. I won't be shocked to see it go to 1.5 or maybe even Duke by 2. Not a lot of faith in Duke but even less faith in Carolina at this point, I think.

JasonEvans
02-07-2018, 10:56 PM
Duke -MSU was officially a pick'em according to VegasInsider. Duke has been at least a 2.5 point favorite in every other game this year (Florida was 2.5, Virginia was 3.5, @ Miami was 4.5). We open as a 1-point favorite over UNC for tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if that line moves by the time the game tips off. I won't be shocked to see it go to 1.5 or maybe even Duke by 2. Not a lot of faith in Duke but even less faith in Carolina at this point, I think.

By the way, at the start of this week, Virginia was an 11/2 pick to win the national title, trailing only Villanova's 5-1 odds. MSU is 13-2 and then Duke is 7-1. Purdue is 8-1 and Arizona is 14-1. Everyone else is 20-1 or worse. UNC is 33-1.

DarkstarWahoo
02-08-2018, 09:12 AM
I want y’all to look Jack Salt in the eye and tell him he’s not a physical specimen. He was chiseled from marble with God’s own tools. Tony tops the “won’t leave my wife alone with him” list, but Jack is up there.

Also, he should start shooting free throws one-handed like that one FSU guy. Couldn’t hurt.

CameronDuke
02-08-2018, 04:41 PM
I want y’all to look Jack Salt in the eye and tell him he’s not a physical specimen. He was chiseled from marble with God’s own tools. Tony tops the “won’t leave my wife alone with him” list, but Jack is up there.

Also, he should start shooting free throws one-handed like that one FSU guy. Couldn’t hurt.

lol how old is Salt? I heard somewhere he's 23. That means he will be playing most of next year at 24 for Virginia. One thing Bennett does well (among many) is use the redshirt on guys properly. Seems like he's had lots of 22+ year old players for him (men) in his career at Virginia. This is especially important in the one and done era where those older players play against a plethora of 18-19 years olds. I believe Gill and Brogdon were 23 their senior years and I think Hall is 23, too.

thedukelamere
02-08-2018, 05:10 PM
Completely off topic, but who would win in a Salt v Haas fight to the death? I'm imagining one of those situations from the movie Troy where we could settle it 1 on 1 and not even have the ACC / B1G Challenge. Salt gives up 4 inches and about 40 pounds, but I wouldn't bet against him.

akg4y
02-08-2018, 05:44 PM
lol how old is Salt? I heard somewhere he's 23. That means he will be playing most of next year at 24 for Virginia. One thing Bennett does well (among many) is use the redshirt on guys properly. Seems like he's had lots of 22+ year old players for him (men) in his career at Virginia. This is especially important in the one and done era where those older players play against a plethora of 18-19 years olds. I believe Gill and Brogdon were 23 their senior years and I think Hall is 23, too.

Salt turns 22 on Sunday.

Also, Im not sure if Salt is Dolf Lundgren or Thor based on this video.

https://twitter.com/Billikentt/status/960902625016406017

ncexnyc
02-10-2018, 11:31 AM
Fun slate of games today.

Does State rebound from their ugly game the other day and will the Cheats be emotionally spent after their win over us the other night? I'm hoping they have a serious Duke hangover.

Does VT put a dent in UVA's quest for a #1 ranking? While some on this forum may think being ranked as #1 doesn't mean anything in the bigger scheme of things, I'm pretty sure the UVA fans think it's a big thing, especially from a prestige angle and working towards getting that NCAA Tournament monkey off their back.

Can FSU get back-up off the canvass after a tough loss to UVA? Now that the Irish have broken their losing streak do they build on that positive and become an even more dangerous team heading into the ACC Tourney?

And last, but not least we have Miami vs BC. The game means more to Miami than BC, but it should be a fun track meet.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-10-2018, 12:02 PM
Watching Jay Williams on GameDay in Charlottesville. He seems to be having fun and the crowd seems to like him. Makes me happy to see him happy. If you have read his book, his journey has been epic.

Additionally, I saw his name listed for some sort of game during the NBA All Star weekend. Does anyone have details? I would love to watch him on the court again.

Wahoo2000
02-10-2018, 12:23 PM
Watching Jay Williams on GameDay in Charlottesville. He seems to be having fun and the crowd seems to like him. Makes me happy to see him happy. If you have read his book, his journey has been epic.

Additionally, I saw his name listed for some sort of game during the NBA All Star weekend. Does anyone have details? I would love to watch him on the court again.


No details on the All Star thing, but he played pickup yesterday with some kids at the AFC (on campus facility for all students) at UVa.

Jay with the assist!
https://www.facebook.com/VirginiaCavaliers/videos/10155472869602635

PackMan97
02-10-2018, 01:17 PM
I don't play with cheaters, or watch their games. Ill be back in the 5 o'clock hour to see how state did

Rich
02-10-2018, 04:19 PM
Watched the whole State-Carolina game. Two observations: (1) I’ve never seen a game where one team (UNC) got so many loose balls and offensive rebounds and turned them into easy buckets. Several times rebounds made it to the floor only to be picked up by Carolina for an uncontested layup.

(2) I saw some really poor defense on both sides leading to straight lines to the basket and easy layups. We’re not alone in that category.

beach rev
02-10-2018, 04:30 PM
I don't play with cheaters, or watch their games. Ill be back in the 5 o'clock hour to see how state did

I respect this a lot, PM. I didn't watch Thursday's game for the very same reason. BTW, Keatts is the real deal. Great hire. My season-ticket-holding friends at UNCW miss him greatly!

ncexnyc
02-10-2018, 04:35 PM
Watched the whole State-Carolina game. Two observations: (1) I’ve never seen a game where one team (UNC) got so many loose balls and offensive rebounds and turned them into easy buckets. Several times rebounds made it to the floor only to be picked up by Carolina for an uncontested layup.

(2) I saw some really poor defense on both sides leading to straight lines to the basket and easy layups. We’re not alone in that category.

Sounds like you didn't watch our game against the Cheats the other night.;)

And this is some wild kind of ACC season. Cheats looked like toast at the start of the week and after beating us and State on a short turnaround they are right back in the thick of things.

PackMan97
02-10-2018, 04:36 PM
I respect this a lot, PM. I didn't watch Thursday's game for the very same reason. BTW, Keatts is the real deal. Great hire. My season-ticket-holding friends at UNCW miss him greatly!

Thanks, judging from the box score... Rebounding. Smh

Wheat/"/"/"
02-10-2018, 04:37 PM
I don't play with cheaters, or watch their games. Ill be back in the 5 o'clock hour to see how state did

The N.C. State Wolfpack team lost.

ncexnyc
02-10-2018, 04:42 PM
Thanks, judging from the box score... Rebounding. Smh
How in the world does Luke Maye go for 33pts and 17 rebounds against your team. Where was Yurtseven today?

PackMan97
02-10-2018, 04:42 PM
The N.C. State Wolfpack team lost.

Cheaters won. Life is not always just.

Rich
02-10-2018, 04:43 PM
Sounds like you didn't watch our game against the Cheats the other night.

I absolutely did. It was worse today, believe it or not. It felt as though UNC had 50% more shots than State.

Troublemaker
02-10-2018, 04:45 PM
How in the world does Luke Maye go for 33pts and 17 rebounds against your team. Where was Yurtseven today?

Maye's a very good, arguably great, college player. We need to retire comments like these.

He can shoot, he can drive, and he can rebound. That's how he can put up 33/17 in a fast-paced game.

arnie
02-10-2018, 04:46 PM
Cheaters won. Life is not always just.

Games will be won and lost, some seasons will be better than others, but the acronym UNC will always be associated with cheating and fraud.

PackMan97
02-10-2018, 04:58 PM
Maye's a very good, arguably great, college player. We need to retire comments like these.

He can shoot, he can drive, and he can rebound. That's how he can put up 33/17 in a fast-paced game.

This is one of states super powers. Make making opponents look really good.

Past two games against experienced guards have made states defense look really bad.

Edit:look bad is wrong. Defense was bad.

ncexnyc
02-10-2018, 05:12 PM
Maye's a very good, arguably great, college player. We need to retire comments like these.

He can shoot, he can drive, and he can rebound. That's how he can put up 33/17 in a fast-paced game.


While I appreciate a kid getting the most out of their talent and really love it when a kid puts in the time and effort to hone their game. Letting a kid like Maye look like a superstar is beyond me. Maybe the match-up is what makes the difference.

dukelifer
02-10-2018, 05:36 PM
Maye's a very good, arguably great, college player. We need to retire comments like these.

He can shoot, he can drive, and he can rebound. That's how he can put up 33/17 in a fast-paced game.

Excellent college player- first team all ACC lock. This Carolina team is dangerous and as I said and some DBR folks dismissed - they are good enough to get to the FF. A lot of games to go but if you do not think that a Senior ladened team with 2 championship games of experience and great shooters is not- then you are not paying attention.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-10-2018, 05:41 PM
While I appreciate a kid getting the most out of their talent and really love it when a kid puts in the time and effort to hone their game. Letting a kid like Maye look like a superstar is beyond me. Maybe the match-up is what makes the difference.

I don't think anybody has been "letting" Maye be a very good player. He has played various types of matchups all season and still at the top of league standings in various categories. He's proving that you don't have to be a great athlete to be a great player.

What's helping Maye the most is his teammates setting good screens, and making good passes.
He has great feel and court awareness, and understanding of how to make plays off those screens and passes.

Also, his work ethic to hone his shot and body into being in such great shape has mattered. He's strong and relentless.

This kid has really earned his respect on the floor with his play.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-10-2018, 06:02 PM
What set off Luke Maye's 27-point second half against State?

Theo Pinson says he heard one Wolfpack player tell another: "You can guard him. He's not that athletic."
Pinson: "Once I heard that, I said, 'They done talked to the wrong one.' "

Rich
02-10-2018, 06:04 PM
'They done talked to the wrong one.' "

Obviously, a UNCheat English major.

ncexnyc
02-10-2018, 06:13 PM
What set off Luke Maye's 27-point second half against State?

Theo Pinson says he heard one Wolfpack player tell another: "You can guard him. He's not that athletic."
Pinson: "Once I heard that, I said, 'They done talked to the wrong one.' "
So another supposed slight sets off the Cheats? I guess the way to beat them is duck tape the mouth of your players.;)

Natty_B
02-10-2018, 06:23 PM
Excellent college player- first team all ACC lock. This Carolina team is dangerous and as I said and some DBR folks dismissed - they are good enough to get to the FF. A lot of games to go but if you do not think that a Senior ladened team with 2 championship games of experience and great shooters is not- then you are not paying attention.

UNC has already had a better two year NCAA run than Duke has had in 25 years. Adding a third year to that would be pretty depressing.

Rich
02-10-2018, 06:52 PM
What it's like watching Virginia basketball

8065

PackMan97
02-10-2018, 07:18 PM
Also, his work ethic to hone his shot and body into being in such great shape has mattered. He's strong and relentless.

This kid has really earned his respect on the floor with his play.

I would be impressed if I knew Maye attended a university that cared about the education their athletes received and didn't have a history of letting athletes attend fake courses.

jv001
02-10-2018, 07:29 PM
I would be impressed if I knew Maye attended a university that cared about the education their athletes received and didn't have a history of letting athletes attend fake courses.

It is quite possible that the cheat team/players have more time to work on their game and their bodies because it's a proven fact that many did not attend class. Those that did probably slept through the classes they actually attended. They have a big advantage on the rest of the ACC. Their wins mean absolutely nothing. The great thing about their Carolina way(cheating) will live with them for a very long time. Way past my lifetime. GoDuke!

wobatus
02-10-2018, 07:44 PM
It is quite possible that the cheat team/players have more time to work on their game and their bodies because it's a proven fact that many did not attend class. Those that did probably slept through the classes they actually attended. They have a big advantage on the rest of the ACC. Their wins mean absolutely nothing. The great thing about their Carolina way(cheating) will live with them for a very long time. Way past my lifetime. GoDuke!

Of course that footage of Maye showing up for his morning class after the Kentucky elite 8 winning shot is fake like the moon landing. We earned comments like that.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-10-2018, 07:48 PM
I promised Stray I wouldn't be so easily trolled anymore....so Stray, this "no comment" for trolling comments directed at me is for you.

PackMan97
02-10-2018, 07:56 PM
I am not trying to troll you Wheat. Your team won. congrats. Maye had a great game.

duke4ever19
02-10-2018, 08:06 PM
Wait . . . is a UNC fan talking about being trolled by a NC State fan . . . on a Duke message board??

We just need one of our many UVA commenters to get in on this action, to make it even more odd. :D

jv001
02-10-2018, 08:11 PM
Of course that footage of Maye showing up for his morning class after the Kentucky elite 8 winning shot is fake like the moon landing. We earned comments like that.

This cheat team probably attends class. If they don't the coaches are dumber than I think but last years team and this years team should be on probation. However the NCAA has no guts. They put other teams on probation for doing far less. No, that team makes too much money for the NCAA. Too bad they will have to carry the tag of cheaters around their necks for a long time. I don't blame the players. Matter of fact, I like most of them but I have no use for the program. GoDuke!

wobatus
02-10-2018, 08:20 PM
This cheat team probably attends class. If they don't the coaches are dumber than I think but last years team and this years team should be on probation. However the NCAA has no guts. They put other teams on probation for doing far less. No, that team makes too much money for the NCAA. Too bad they will have to carry the tag of cheaters around their necks for a long time. I don't blame the players. Matter of fact, I like most of them but I have no use for the program. GoDuke!

Fair enough.

devilsince1977
02-10-2018, 08:21 PM
Va Tech over UVA

kshepinthehouse
02-10-2018, 08:22 PM
Wait . . . is a UNC fan talking about being trolled by a NC State fan . . . on a Duke message board??

We just need one of our many UVA commenters to get in on this action, to make it even more odd. :D

Wheat started the trolling by letting him know the score, then immediately complained of being trolled 😂

Dr. Rosenrosen
02-10-2018, 08:22 PM
Okey Dokey Hokie! That last 10 minutes was fun to watch.

ncexnyc
02-10-2018, 08:23 PM
Props to VT. After choking away the lead during regulation time they didn't fold and managed to pull out the win.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-10-2018, 08:23 PM
I am not trying to troll you Wheat. Your team won. congrats. Maye had a great game.

Thanks. I agree, Maye played very well.

Troublemaker
02-10-2018, 08:24 PM
Virginia wins again, this time on the road at FSU to get to 23-1, 12-0. They are the best team in the ACC right now and it isn't even that close. They kept their perfect ACC season alive. Also, since St. John's just beat Villanova, if Virginia beats Virginia Tech Saturday at Virginia, then Virginia should be ranked 1st in the country next week. What a team they have. I don't see them losing a game the rest of the season.


That sound you hear is the sound of dozens of DBRers typing, trying to entice you into a beer or pie bet.


Lol, I won't bet a cold one on it but I still don't predict them to lose. They could get upset but I see them being favored in every game they play from here on out. Just a dominant team right now. I thought tonight would be their toughest road game other than at Duke. I also keep telling people if you get Virginia down early into a big deficit, which they rarely get into, they may not have the offensive firepower to fight back. They were down 10 at the half tonight and went on a 9-0 run early in the second half to get back into it. Their opponents have to play nearly a perfect game in all aspects to beat them. They just have so many more offensive weapons this year than they've had in Guy, Jerome, Hall, Hunter, and even Wilkins hit a big basket late.


Good points - I'll still take them to run the table here on out at 38-1 to an ACC regular season, ACC tournament, and NCAA National Championship. And I am stone cold sober tonight typing this!

The ONLY games I think could be part of that 10% you mentioned are vs Duke in the ACC title game or vs Duke in the final four or national championship game :)

Good call not taking any bets on this, CameronDuke :-)

duke4ever19
02-10-2018, 08:25 PM
UVA Loses to Tech at home.

Someone needs to tell Kyle Guy he isn't J.J. Redick.

I think UVA, despite the gaudy defensive rating, will lose to any hot-shooting team they face in the tournament.

UrinalCake
02-10-2018, 08:25 PM
Great finish for VT. Down by 5 with 39 seconds left in OT, they manage to pull it out in large part due to Devon Hall (who shoots like 99% from the line) hitting 1-2 from the line and then the next time down missing the front end of a one and one.

dukelifer
02-10-2018, 08:28 PM
UVA Loses to Tech at home.

Someone needs to tell Kyle Guy he isn't J.J. Redick.

I think UVA, despite the gaudy defensive rating, will lose to any hot-shooting team they face in the tournament.

Or if UVA can’t shoot like today. Tech did not shoot that well in this game- UVA were very bad from deep 26%

sagegrouse
02-10-2018, 08:35 PM
Great finish for VT. Down by 5 with 39 seconds left in OT, they manage to pull it out in large part due to Devon Hall (who shoots like 99% from the line) hitting 1-2 from the line and then the next time down missing the front end of a one and one.

Devon Hall was 57 for 61 (93.4 percent) entering today's game and missed two of three FTs in the last 30 seconds of overtime.

Kindly,
Sage
'And the last one was a brick'

ncexnyc
02-10-2018, 08:37 PM
Or if UVA can’t shoot like today. Tech did not shoot that well in this game- UVA were very bad from deep 26%

Glad to see someone was watching the same game I was. Not sure what Jay and Dan were ranting about when they were critical of UVA's defense today. They gave up a whopping 61 points in an overtime game. The reason they lost wasn't because of their defense, but today the offense was horrid compared to how they've been playing this season. Guy was really bad and took a number of terrible shots during the game.

royalblue
02-10-2018, 08:37 PM
When is the last time a major college team scored 16 points in a regulation 2nd half and still ended up winning the game over a top 5 team on the road
Has it ever been done?

mgtr
02-10-2018, 08:50 PM
After today, I am proud to state that I went to grad school at Va Tech. Not always willing to make that claim.

OldPhiKap
02-10-2018, 08:56 PM
Wheat started the trolling by letting him know the score, then immediately complained of being trolled ��

“Am I the victim, or the crime?”

— Bob Weir

Congrats to Buzz and the Hokies.

Wahoo2000
02-10-2018, 09:02 PM
After a shower to attempt to wash the vomit off of myself, I'm feeling slightly better. Worst loss/biggest choke job since the E8 game vs Syracuse.

These really big potential "milestone wins" (one that would have given us a FF for the first time since the early 80s..... one to get to #1 in the country for the first time since the early 80s) aren't bringing out the best in our guys. I think it was the magnitude of the moment/game that got to them. Can't imagine Hall missing consecutive FTs like that again in his life. Ugh. I need to go throw up again.

dukelifer
02-10-2018, 09:07 PM
After a shower to attempt to wash the vomit off of myself, I'm feeling slightly better. Worst loss/biggest choke job since the E8 game vs Syracuse.

These really big potential "milestone wins" (one that would have given us a FF for the first time since the early 80s.... one to get to #1 in the country for the first time since the early 80s) aren't bringing out the best in our guys. I think it was the magnitude of the moment/game that got to them. Can't imagine Hall missing consecutive FTs like that again in his life. Ugh. I need to go throw up again.
Just wait until you have to deal with outrageous expectations - the feeling is even worse.

duke4ever19
02-10-2018, 09:27 PM
So, UVA ranks dead-last in possessions per-game with 62.9 . . . which is about where it has been in the Tony Bennett era.

My question is this: What is the last team to win the National Championship with a possessions-per-game in the low 60s?

Not trivia. I'd genuinely like to know the answer and I figure one of you stat gurus knows the answer.

CameronDuke
02-10-2018, 09:37 PM
Good call not taking any bets on this, CameronDuke :-)

This aged well. Am I allowed to put Texas Pete hot sauce on my crow when I eat it? :)

devildeac
02-10-2018, 09:56 PM
After a shower to attempt to wash the vomit off of myself, I'm feeling slightly better. Worst loss/biggest choke job since the E8 game vs Syracuse.

These really big potential "milestone wins" (one that would have given us a FF for the first time since the early 80s.... one to get to #1 in the country for the first time since the early 80s) aren't bringing out the best in our guys. I think it was the magnitude of the moment/game that got to them. Can't imagine Hall missing consecutive FTs like that again in his life. Ugh. I need to go throw up again.

Shooting 5/11 FT? At home? Missing the front end of three 1 and 1s? Nah, couldn't happen. Or could it?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-10-2018, 09:57 PM
UVA Loses to Tech at home.

Someone needs to tell Kyle Guy he isn't J.J. Redick.

I think UVA, despite the gaudy defensive rating, will lose to any hot-shooting team they face in the tournament.

It's over

godins
02-10-2018, 10:00 PM
So, UVA ranks dead-last in possessions per-game with 62.9 . . . which is about where it has been in the Tony Bennett era.

My question is this: What is the last team to win the National Championship with a possessions-per-game in the low 60s?

Not trivia. I'd genuinely like to know the answer and I figure one of you stat gurus knows the answer.

I went looking on teamrankings.com which has possessions/per game data to the 1997-1998 season. The national champion with the lowest PPG in that time frame was 99-00 Michigan State, at 67.3 PPG (283 of 320 teams). This number isn't adjusted, however, and KenPom only goes back to 2002.

CameronDuke
02-10-2018, 10:12 PM
Virginia shot 38 (!!!) 3-pointers tonight against a team with a serious size disadvantage. Also, they hit just 11 of those (28.9%). Also, two huge free throw misses by Hall down the stretch including the front end of a 1 and 1. I think coming into the game Hall was shooting 90% from the line. The big 3 guards from Virginia (Guy, Jerome, and Hall) shooting tonight? They scored 40 of Virginia's 60 points - however it occurred on 14-47 (!!!) shooting (29.8%). Virginia Tech also out rebounded Virginia 37-36 and shot 43.4 percent overall to Virginia's 34.4 percent.

Virginia plays at Miami at 9 pm Tuesday night. Both teams are coming off losses. That will be another tough game for Virginia against Jim Larranaga's squad. Could Virginia, who looked unbeatable most of this year, take another L Tuesday in the sunshine state? If so, it would certainly knock their mojo and the swagger/confidence of their fans down a couple notches.

Read somewhere that Virginia hadn't been ranked #1 in America since 1982 (think Ralph Sampson days). Now that was before I was born but how bad does this loss have to sting for Virginia fans? They had College Gameday there in Charlottesville today and a night game inside the JPJ against their arch rivals for a shot to be ranked #1 in America for the first time in 36 years. And they choked it away. Awful. Virginia fans - does this loss sting about as bad as the loss to Cuse in the Elite 8 in 2016 after Virginia was up like 15 with 9 minutes left before choking it away to watch Cuse go to the Final Four? I realize that loss occurred in the NCAAT but most Virginia fans I know and watch games with CANNOT STAND anything Hokie related.

duke4ever19
02-10-2018, 10:13 PM
I went looking on teamrankings.com which has possessions/per game data to the 1997-1998 season. The national champion with the lowest PPG in that time frame was 99-00 Michigan State, at 67.3 PPG (283 of 320 teams). This number isn't adjusted, however, and KenPom only goes back to 2002.

Thanks.

So I would assume the less possessions a team has, the more statistical variance can occur, which translates (I think) to a higher likelihood of an upset. In a single elimination tournament, I'm wondering if this is a style of basketball you want to rely on to help you go the distance.

Does this sound right, or am I simplifying it beyond reason? I probably am.

jhmoss1812
02-10-2018, 10:26 PM
Virginia fans - does this loss sting about as bad as the loss to Cuse in the Elite 8 in 2016 after Virginia was up like 15 with 9 minutes left before choking it away to watch Cuse go to the Final Four? I realize that loss occurred in the NCAAT but most Virginia fans I know and watch games with CANNOT STAND anything Hokie related.

I obviously can't speak for other UVA fans but this loss isn't even in the same stratosphere as the Syracuse loss. That loss still haunts my dreams. It sucked to lose tonight, especially because we didn't play smart and because it was to our hated rival. But you just gotta give credit to VT and move on. This is a regular season loss that is just a small blip on an awesome season so far.

CameronDuke
02-10-2018, 10:29 PM
Agree. Hell of a season for Virginia thus far. I mean a damn good one.

*whispers*

What if Virginia loses at Miami Tuesday night?

jhmoss1812
02-10-2018, 10:32 PM
Agree. Hell of a season for Virginia thus far. I mean a damn good one.

*whispers*

What if Virginia loses at Miami Tuesday night?

Then we'll be 23-3 (12-2 ACC). Will still be in 1st place in the ACC. Hard for me to complain about that. I don't know why anyone would think UVA (or any team for that matter) is unbeatable.

CameronDuke
02-10-2018, 10:34 PM
Then we'll be 23-3 (12-2 ACC). Will still be in 1st place in the ACC. Hard for me to complain about that. I don't know why anyone would think UVA (or any team for that matter) is unbeatable.

Virginia is legit. No questioning that. Is there no worry of Virginia peaking too soon this year or Bennett's lack of consistent success once the calendar hits March (outside winning the ACC Championship in 2014 and making the Elite Eight in 2016 before choking it away)? Could the "March lull", if you will, be rearing its ugly head earlier in February this year?

CameronDuke
02-10-2018, 10:43 PM
Tonight, Virginia shot more 3-pointers than 2-pointers for the third time this season. They are 1-2 in such games. Is a key to beating Virginia maybe playing defense with predominantly pack line principles back on them and eliminating cutters, dribble penetration, and easy 2-point attempts inside the ark and forcing them to launch 3s and seeing how it plays out? They always say teams that press don't like to be pressed. Maybe it's true, too, that teams that pack line don't like to be pack lined?

Speaking of pressing, maybe a key to beating Virginia is pressing them? I haven't seen many teams try pressuring Virginia in the backcourt consistently and making Guy, Jerome, and Hall try to bring the ball up the court under duress. In fact, the last team I saw consistently press Virginia was Press - eh - West Virginia. And Virginia lost to West Virginia that night.

jhmoss1812
02-10-2018, 10:43 PM
Virginia is legit. No questioning that. Is there no worry of Virginia peaking too soon this year or Bennett's lack of consistent success once the calendar hits March (outside winning the ACC Championship in 2014 and making the Elite Eight in 2016 before choking it away)? Could the "March lull", if you will, be rearing its ugly head earlier in February this year?

I don't think I worry about those things as much as some other UVA fans do. We can beat anyone in the country. But the champion is determined by a single elimination format and anything can happen in a one and done tourney. My confidence lies in the fact that our defense keeps us in every single game we play. That doesn't guarantee anything but I think that's all I can really ask of my team.

CameronDuke
02-10-2018, 10:45 PM
I don't think I worry about those things as much as some other UVA fans do. We can beat anyone in the country. But the champion is determined by a single elimination format and anything can happen in a one and done tourney. My confidence lies in the fact that our defense keeps us in every single game we play. That doesn't guarantee anything but I think that's all I can really ask of my team.

I agree with that. Even if Virginia goes cold offensively, their defense will keep it close. Now if a team gets hot from 3 and Virginia has another poor shooting night like tonight, they could be toast early once again which as a fan that simply admires Tony Bennett and Virginia's consistency, does concern me a bit.

Troublemaker
02-10-2018, 10:54 PM
Agree. Hell of a season for Virginia thus far. I mean a damn good one.

*whispers*

What if Virginia loses at Miami Tuesday night?


Virginia is legit. No questioning that. Is there no worry of Virginia peaking too soon this year or Bennett's lack of consistent success once the calendar hits March (outside winning the ACC Championship in 2014 and making the Elite Eight in 2016 before choking it away)? Could the "March lull", if you will, be rearing its ugly head earlier in February this year?

Dang, dude. One overtime loss, and your tune has changed a bit :-)

jhmoss1812
02-10-2018, 10:56 PM
I agree with that. Even if Virginia goes cold offensively, their defense will keep it close. Now if a team gets hot from 3 and Virginia has another poor shooting night like tonight, they could be toast early once again which as a fan that simply admires Tony Bennett and Virginia's consistency, does concern me a bit.

Any team this happens to would be toast. I think this goes to show what combination of events need to happen in order for UVA to lose. But, anything can happen in a single elimination tourney. I think it's perfectly fair for people to be critical of UVA in the postseason until we show we can break through. I have fewer concerns. I think if we keep earning top seeds in the tourney, we'll get there eventually.

Here's one concern that I do have though - UVA's inability to get to the FT line on offense. Obviously, we lack the inside post players but we need to drive the ball more and stop taking so many jumpers. I know it's not a big part of our offense but we have a few players who can get to the hoop. Obviously, it would be nice to get more easy points since we are a good FT shooting team. But, in late game situations, we are never in the double bonus and are faced with a lot of one and ones. We should still hit those but there would be a lot less pressure if we were in the double bonus.

jhmoss1812
02-10-2018, 11:01 PM
Tonight, Virginia shot more 3-pointers than 2-pointers for the third time this season. They are 1-2 in such games. Is a key to beating Virginia maybe playing defense with predominantly pack line principles back on them and eliminating cutters, dribble penetration, and easy 2-point attempts inside the ark and forcing them to launch 3s and seeing how it plays out? They always say teams that press don't like to be pressed. Maybe it's true, too, that teams that pack line don't like to be pack lined?

Speaking of pressing, maybe a key to beating Virginia is pressing them? I haven't seen many teams try pressuring Virginia in the backcourt consistently and making Guy, Jerome, and Hall try to bring the ball up the court under duress. In fact, the last team I saw consistently press Virginia was Press - eh - West Virginia. And Virginia lost to West Virginia that night.

Buzz did a good job with the game plan tonight. He knew he can't beat us playing their uptempo game. So he decided that he was going to try to beat us at our own game. And it worked...this time. I also think we didn't play a very smart game. There's no reason we should take more 3s than 2s against VT.

If you are going to press us, you better have a rim protector. We have decimated bad presses (VT game 1, Iowa State in Sweet 16) but we struggle against teams that either have the horses to press for 40 minutes (WVU) or have rim protectors on the back end of the press (Cuse). If you watch the Elite 8 game vs. Cuse, we broke their press with relative ease but really struggled to finish at the rim. Then Malachi Richardson just went nuts too.

UrinalCake
02-10-2018, 11:02 PM
Devon Hall was 57 for 61 (93.4 percent) entering today's game and missed two of three FTs in the last 30 seconds of overtime.

They also failed to execute any kind of offense on the final possession, which ended with Jerome launching a 35-footer. Lots of uncharacteristic play from them in the final minute.

CameronDuke
02-10-2018, 11:04 PM
Dang, dude. One overtime loss, and your tune has changed a bit :-)

lol I like to stir the pot, too :)

In all honesty, I watched the game tonight with a good friend of mine who's a diehard Virginia fan and alum as are two of his sisters and his brother. I like jabbing at him with these questions, too. Especially after all of the jabbing Duke has gotten thus far at an overall record of 19-5 (pretty damn good still). I respect Virginia, I honestly want them to win every game they play the rest of the season other than Duke. But I do feel if they lose at Miami Tuesday (which I'm not predicting - I still think they could win out and tonight could just be a "perfect storm" blip on the radar) they may start feeling some pressure. Basketball is weird. I'm already catching March Madness. Truly the best time for a sport and best sporting event of the year.

CameronDuke
02-10-2018, 11:09 PM
Any team this happens to would be toast. I think this goes to show what combination of events need to happen in order for UVA to lose. But, anything can happen in a single elimination tourney. I think it's perfectly fair for people to be critical of UVA in the postseason until we show we can break through. I have fewer concerns. I think if we keep earning top seeds in the tourney, we'll get there eventually.

Here's one concern that I do have though - UVA's inability to get to the FT line on offense. Obviously, we lack the inside post players but we need to drive the ball more and stop taking so many jumpers. I know it's not a big part of our offense but we have a few players who can get to the hoop. Obviously, it would be nice to get more easy points since we are a good FT shooting team. But, in late game situations, we are never in the double bonus and are faced with a lot of one and ones. We should still hit those but there would be a lot less pressure if we were in the double bonus.

That is a good point. I actually had this conversation with my buddy tonight during the game. It seemed Virginia settled for way too many 3s that they simply launched, many of which were from NBA range. Is it just me, or is Kyle Guy shooting probably 55%+ on running floaters from the baseline or elbow extended area? I mean, his midrange running floater move is damn near unstoppable to me. Yet it is a highly underutilized move and play for Virginia it seems. I would like to see them, when in need of a bucket, let Guy either catch it in the corner and take a running floater from the baseline or let him drive it in from the top of the key and take a running floater from the elbow area. It's usually off balance looking and off one foot in traffic but I'll be damned if he doesn't hit AT LEAST half the shots like that he attempts. It looks to my very college basketball coaching uneducated and raw basketball talent uneducated observing eye that he practices this shot. If he doesn't I want him picking my lottery ticket numbers next time the powerball gets up to a quarter billion dollars because he's getting lucky as hell when I'm watching him.

CameronDuke
02-10-2018, 11:16 PM
Buzz did a good job with the game plan tonight. He knew he can't beat us playing their uptempo game. So he decided that he was going to try to beat us at our own game. And it worked...this time. I also think we didn't play a very smart game. There's no reason we should take more 3s than 2s against VT.

If you are going to press us, you better have a rim protector. We have decimated bad presses (VT game 1, Iowa State in Sweet 16) but we struggle against teams that either have the horses to press for 40 minutes (WVU) or have rim protectors on the back end of the press (Cuse). If you watch the Elite 8 game vs. Cuse, we broke their press with relative ease but really struggled to finish at the rim. Then Malachi Richardson just went nuts too.

That is dead on. I remember Brogdon breaking the press several times in the 2nd half and then getting to the rim and either: missing a layup, turning it over, or passing it to an open player and then that player forcing a shot early in the shot clock and missing. That simply ain't Virginia basketball. Some of the success Cuse had against Virginia when pressing them wasn't necessarily forcing turnovers but speeding Virginia up and getting them out of their methodical offense. Very hard to do against them but maybe teams should try it more. Jerome, Guy, and Hall are sure handed ball handlers but none appear immune to being pressed. That would be bound to have an effect of putting a scare into them or speeding their heat beats up a tick or two I would think in a close NCAAT type game.

Wahoo2000
02-11-2018, 12:21 AM
Virginia shot 38 (!!!) 3-pointers tonight against a team with a serious size disadvantage. Also, they hit just 11 of those (28.9%). Also, two huge free throw misses by Hall down the stretch including the front end of a 1 and 1. I think coming into the game Hall was shooting 90% from the line. The big 3 guards from Virginia (Guy, Jerome, and Hall) shooting tonight? They scored 40 of Virginia's 60 points - however it occurred on 14-47 (!!!) shooting (29.8%). Virginia Tech also out rebounded Virginia 37-36 and shot 43.4 percent overall to Virginia's 34.4 percent.

Virginia plays at Miami at 9 pm Tuesday night. Both teams are coming off losses. That will be another tough game for Virginia against Jim Larranaga's squad. Could Virginia, who looked unbeatable most of this year, take another L Tuesday in the sunshine state? If so, it would certainly knock their mojo and the swagger/confidence of their fans down a couple notches.

Read somewhere that Virginia hadn't been ranked #1 in America since 1982 (think Ralph Sampson days). Now that was before I was born but how bad does this loss have to sting for Virginia fans? They had College Gameday there in Charlottesville today and a night game inside the JPJ against their arch rivals for a shot to be ranked #1 in America for the first time in 36 years. And they choked it away. Awful. Virginia fans - does this loss sting about as bad as the loss to Cuse in the Elite 8 in 2016 after Virginia was up like 15 with 9 minutes left before choking it away to watch Cuse go to the Final Four? I realize that loss occurred in the NCAAT but most Virginia fans I know and watch games with CANNOT STAND anything Hokie related.

I'll address these bolded things in order, one at a time:
1 - Hall, a 93% FT shooter, could have iced the game by making all 4 potential free throws. Even if he just goes 2/3 or 3/4 we are MUCH more likely to hold on. Nearly inconceivable that he'd flub those both, except in the instance of the pressure of the moment getting to him (not a good sign for executing in high pressure moments later on)
2 - The perimeter shot poorly mostly due to how poorly we RAN our offense to get looks. The picks weren't NEARLY as solid as they usually are, and we didn't move the ball (thereby moving the D) the way we usually do. Again, I think the pressure got to guys. They all KNEW this game was in the national spotlight, with the chance to become #1 (something we hadn't done since Ralph days). We started off ok, and a few good/lucky bombs from VT in the 1st half rattled them. They just looked a step slow MENTALLY al night. Slow to rotate, slow to box out, slow to cut and move the ball on offense. Not EXTRAORDINARILY slow, just a 1/2 step. Unfortunately, that's all it takes. Poor offense leads to bad shots (contested deep 3s). You rarely make a good % of bad shots unless you're INSANELY gifted with athleticism and touch, which our guys aren't.
3 - I'd call the game at Miami a tossup. Even if we lose, I won't sweat too much. We get our "bye" right after that and I think the time off to rest (especially for the perimeter guys, who have all been playing close to 40/game lately) and for Bennett to "coach em up" will do us good. The remaining schedule isn't nearly as difficult. We SHOULDN'T drop more than 1-2 more games total (including Miami) in the regular season.
4 - For me, it's a clear notch below the E8 choke, but also a clear notch above any OTHER loss of the Bennett era. The opportunity that was there tonight, for the boost in program perception - to be #1, to be in the spotlight as the CLEAR best team in the country (resume-wise), won't be available again in that setting, on that stage, for who knows how long. Honestly, the only way we can regain that opportunity in my eyes would be to either a)win out in the regular season, while no other team (power conferences) finishes with less than 4-5 losses, OR b)make the Final Four. Even another ACC tournament title wouldn't do it, because what I'm looking for here is to hit a major milestone that we HAVEN'T under Bennett. Getting a unanimous (or near unanimous) #1 ranking would have done that. A final four would do that. That's about it.

I think in the end what's most disappointing is that it feels like we lost because the pressure got to us and we did a lot of uncharacteristic things that weren't a result of what the opponent did to us. Rather, we shot ourselves in the foot/choked/came up small...... whatever you want to call it, it ain't good.

Furniture
02-11-2018, 12:30 AM
Buzz did a good job with the game plan tonight. He knew he can't beat us playing their uptempo game. So he decided that he was going to try to beat us at our own game. And it worked...this time. I also think we didn't play a very smart game. There's no reason we should take more 3s than 2s against VT.

If you are going to press us, you better have a rim protector. We have decimated bad presses (VT game 1, Iowa State in Sweet 16) but we struggle against teams that either have the horses to press for 40 minutes (WVU) or have rim protectors on the back end of the press (Cuse). If you watch the Elite 8 game vs. Cuse, we broke their press with relative ease but really struggled to finish at the rim. Then Malachi Richardson just went nuts too.

I love the passion and confidence that you have with your team. We don’t see that a lot around here!!

duketaylor
02-11-2018, 12:32 AM
jhmoss1812 says, "My confidence lies in the fact that our defense keeps us in every single game we play."

While I agree with this, I also believe that's the same thought that will keep folks picking brackets to have UVA going as deep as might be expected; if all their tourney games are to be low-scoring, it's kinda worrisome that each could come down to a possession or two late. An early upset is possibly more likely as other teams will likely run away from some opponents. Just a thought. I know how good the Hoos are, but an off-night on offense is a bit scary.

W&LHoo
02-11-2018, 12:37 AM
From an outside perspective, how crazily rose colored are my glasses:

I'm not sure we still dont bump ahead of Villanova. Our loss was in OT to a significantly higher ranked team on basically any metric.

jhmoss1812
02-11-2018, 12:38 AM
I love the passion and confidence that you have with your team. We don’t see that a lot around here!!

Well, we don't have the same expectations as you guys do. Most programs would be thrilled with 19-5.


jhmoss1812 says, "My confidence lies in the fact that our defense keeps us in every single game we play."

While I agree with this, I also believe that's the same thought that will keep folks picking brackets to have UVA going as deep as might be expected; if all their tourney games are to be low-scoring, it's kinda worrisome that each could come down to a possession or two late. An early upset is possibly more likely as other teams will likely run away from some opponents. Just a thought. I know how good the Hoos are, but an off-night on offense is a bit scary.

I want people picking against UVA in their brackets. That way, if we do go deep, I'll also take home some money :)

duketaylor
02-11-2018, 12:59 AM
I'd expect it to be: 1) MSU, 2) X, 3) UC, 4) UVA, 5) Purdue. This could be way off depending on the voter's view of how strong they think the top-ten is versus each other. At some point Auburn will get more respect, or will they? Cincy snuck by @Creighton today. TTU won handily at KSU while Auburn won easily @UGA.

Who freakin knows, very interesting goings-on?

Trey21
02-11-2018, 01:31 AM
For warning this post goes in a lot of directions about UVA and just college basketball in general.

I watched the second half of the Tech and UVA game. My God... I really pity people who put themselves through that on a regular basis. Not trying to fire shots, but I've seen rec league games that are not only more entertaining (sports are entertainment), but were even better executed than the 25 minutes of that game I saw today.

38-38 with 10 minutes to go in the second half? Stuck for what seems like an eternity. Pack line D, limited, and/or "valued" possessions, whatever college basketball jargon you wanna throw on top on it. You can't call it great basketball in my book, cause well these kids aren't really great basketball players. Sure UVA is a great team within the college basketball context of 2018, but they don't play great ball. They play careful because they know they are limited. They play well within their capabilities to be sure, but again don't confuse that with being good.

Excellent coaching + excellent execution ≠ excellent basketball

The game is more nuanced than that. You can get the best recipe and follow the instructions to a T, but it won't taste good if you don't use the highest quality ingredients.

That said, I like Tony Bennett I think he is one of the few young bright hopes that the next generation of coaches has. I'm very curious to see where the sport goes once these iconic generation of coaches retires (K, Roy, Izzo,) there's some young bright stars, but college basketball at this point is really all about the institution (Duke, UNC, UK) and mythology of their leaders (K, Roy, and so on). I imagine it'll always stay like this, but it'll be interesting if players will take the opportunity to maybe seize some power for themselves ($) and how people and media outlets like ESPN will market the game since all these old white dudes will be gone.

I'm one of those people who genuinely thinks that the quality of college basketball has gone down tremendously, while the NBA's quality of play has gone massively up in the past decade. Don't necessarily know if that's because of OAD, or some other factors, but college ball has really just become a mess of play. When I watched college ball growing up in the late 90's and early 00's the team's play wasn't worlds part from the NBA, now it just seems like NBA is in a whole another universe in terms of quality. The rankings have always been pretty silly if you think about them too long, but now they are pretty much meaningless. "Upsets" happen with regularity in the regular season now, and it seems to be the only draw that makes the season interesting is some arbitrary ranking.

Just feels like the best teams aren't even that good anymore.

godins
02-11-2018, 01:39 AM
Thanks.

So I would assume the less possessions a team has, the more statistical variance can occur, which translates (I think) to a higher likelihood of an upset. In a single elimination tournament, I'm wondering if this is a style of basketball you want to rely on to help you go the distance.

Does this sound right, or am I simplifying it beyond reason? I probably am.

No, I think you're on to the right idea. Simply put, a team with a higher efficiency margin (AdjO - AdjD) and a higher tempo would be expected to put up more 30+ point wins than a team with a lower tempo. In the 20-year lookback I did, national championship teams were far more likely to play fast (top-50 in tempo) than play slow. Correlation and causation and all that jazz, but I think Virginia's slow tempo could (and will) hurt them in games with evenly matched teams.

duketaylor
02-11-2018, 02:26 AM
No, I think you're on to the right idea. Simply put, a team with a higher efficiency margin (AdjO - AdjD) and a higher tempo would be expected to put up more 30+ point wins than a team with a lower tempo. In the 20-year lookback I did, national championship teams were far more likely to play fast (top-50 in tempo) than play slow. Correlation and causation and all that jazz, but I think Virginia's slow tempo could (and will) hurt them in games with evenly matched teams.

Both of these posts are exactly what I'm thinking; allowing teams to stay in the game (because you don't blow them out) retards chances (even if minutely) from surviving a single-elim tourney.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-11-2018, 02:58 AM
For warning this post goes in a lot of directions about UVA and just college basketball in general.

I watched the second half of the Tech and UVA game. My God... I really pity people who put themselves through that on a regular basis. Not trying to fire shots, but I've seen rec league games that are not only more entertaining (sports are entertainment), but were even better executed than the 25 minutes of that game I saw today.

38-38 with 10 minutes to go in the second half? Stuck for what seems like an eternity. Pack line D, limited, and/or "valued" possessions, whatever college basketball jargon you wanna throw on top on it. You can't call it great basketball in my book, cause well these kids aren't really great basketball players. Sure UVA is a great team within the college basketball context of 2018, but they don't play great ball. They play careful because they know they are limited. They play well within their capabilities to be sure, but again don't confuse that with being good.

Excellent coaching + excellent execution ≠ excellent basketball

The game is more nuanced than that. You can get the best recipe and follow the instructions to a T, but it won't taste good if you don't use the highest quality ingredients.

That said, I like Tony Bennett I think he is one of the few young bright hopes that the next generation of coaches has. I'm very curious to see where the sport goes once these iconic generation of coaches retires (K, Roy, Izzo,) there's some young bright stars, but college basketball at this point is really all about the institution (Duke, UNC, UK) and mythology of their leaders (K, Roy, and so on). I imagine it'll always stay like this, but it'll be interesting if players will take the opportunity to maybe seize some power for themselves ($) and how people and media outlets like ESPN will market the game since all these old white dudes will be gone.

I'm one of those people who genuinely thinks that the quality of college basketball has gone down tremendously, while the NBA's quality of play has gone massively up in the past decade. Don't necessarily know if that's because of OAD, or some other factors, but college ball has really just become a mess of play. When I watched college ball growing up in the late 90's and early 00's the team's play wasn't worlds part from the NBA, now it just seems like NBA is in a whole another universe in terms of quality. The rankings have always been pretty silly if you think about them too long, but now they are pretty much meaningless. "Upsets" happen with regularity in the regular season now, and it seems to be the only draw that makes the season interesting is some arbitrary ranking.

Just feels like the best teams aren't even that good anymore.

I am gonna guess you loved the Super Bowl, didn't you?

One of the best games I ever saw was a 6-3 game between the Steelers and Ravens.

Troublemaker
02-11-2018, 08:25 AM
Both of these posts are exactly what I'm thinking; allowing teams to stay in the game (because you don't blow them out) retards chances (even if minutely) from surviving a single-elim tourney.

It's a sound theory, but one would think the weakness would show up in the regular season, too. That is, over a larger sample of games, it should be harder for UVA to post a gaudy record or win a regular season title because they just get involved in too many close games and inevitably lose some of them. As opposed to a faster-paced team that doesn't play as many close games. But, as we've seen, UVA has tended to be a regular season giant.

If the theory is that it is only a problem against NCAA tourney quality competition, then I would check their record against ACC teams that make the tournament, for example. And make a comparison to Duke, UNC, whomever, since 2014 (when UVA leveled up as a program). Even under those restrictions, I think UVA's record probably comes out ahead.

jhmoss1812
02-11-2018, 08:42 AM
Both of these posts are exactly what I'm thinking; allowing teams to stay in the game (because you don't blow them out) retards chances (even if minutely) from surviving a single-elim tourney.

Please explain to me how UVA is 7th in the country in raw scoring margin then.

Just because we don't do it with our offense doesn't mean we don't blow teams out.

8 of our 12 ACC wins are by double digits and we haven't even had the pleasure of playing Pitt yet.

jhmoss1812
02-11-2018, 08:43 AM
The game is more nuanced than that. You can get the best recipe and follow the instructions to a T, but it won't taste good if you don't use the highest quality ingredients.

And the highest quality ingredients can go spoiled and the food will taste like crap.

You're judging us on our worst game of the season. What would your solution be for UVA? It's pretty easy to say "go get the highest quality ingredients" when you're Duke. But you're asking UVA to shop at Whole Foods or Trader Joes on a Kroger budget.

jhmoss1812
02-11-2018, 08:56 AM
No, I think you're on to the right idea. Simply put, a team with a higher efficiency margin (AdjO - AdjD) and a higher tempo would be expected to put up more 30+ point wins than a team with a lower tempo. In the 20-year lookback I did, national championship teams were far more likely to play fast (top-50 in tempo) than play slow. Correlation and causation and all that jazz, but I think Virginia's slow tempo could (and will) hurt them in games with evenly matched teams.

You are also assuming that, for a team like UVA, that there wouldn't be a tradeoff in efficiency margin with an increased tempo. Even with loss last night, UVA still leads the country in efficiency margin at +31.69.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-11-2018, 09:09 AM
Games between good teams get hard to win this late in the season.

Va. Tech is a tough team that plays with a lot of energy and quickness. They just caught UVA on a night when they didn't shoot it well.

I don't think that loss changes much, UVA is still easily a top 10 team in the country.

CameronDuke
02-11-2018, 09:27 AM
Games between good teams get hard to win this late in the season.

Va. Tech is a tough team that plays with a lot of energy and quickness. They just caught UVA on a night when they didn't shoot it well.

I don't think that loss changes much, UVA is still easily a top 10 team in the country.

I agree. Virginia still has road games at Miami and at Louisville. They COULD lose both of those but I still think they could win out in the ACC and be 17-1. But if they were to lose at Miami and at Louisville and finish 15-3 in the ACC and Duke won out in the ACC from today to the ACCT, Duke would be 14-4 and in 2nd place. If Duke were then to beat Virginia in the ACC Championship game, would Duke jump Virginia for a 1 seed? Duke would be 29-5 and Virginia would be 28-5 if that happened. Duke would have the ACC Championship (the ACC doesn't crown the true ACC Champion based on regular season standings - the real ACC Champion is the ACC Tournament Champion). I think Duke would jump Virginia if that happens. To recap, Duke runs the table from here until selection Sunday including beating Virginia for the ACC Championship (or beating someone else if Virginia loses in the ACC Tournament before the title game) and Virginia losing at Miami and at Louisville.

JasonEvans
02-11-2018, 09:45 AM
I'd expect it to be: 1) MSU, 2) X, 3) UC, 4) UVA, 5) Purdue.

So you think Villanova won't be in the top 5. I don't suppose I can get you to make a bet on that, can I? Or better still, you can take over my side of the now unwinnable the Duke-UNC wager with Wheat ;)

kmspeaks
02-11-2018, 09:52 AM
For warning this post goes in a lot of directions about UVA and just college basketball in general.

I watched the second half of the Tech and UVA game. My God... I really pity people who put themselves through that on a regular basis. Not trying to fire shots, but I've seen rec league games that are not only more entertaining (sports are entertainment), but were even better executed than the 25 minutes of that game I saw today.

38-38 with 10 minutes to go in the second half? Stuck for what seems like an eternity. Pack line D, limited, and/or "valued" possessions, whatever college basketball jargon you wanna throw on top on it. You can't call it great basketball in my book, cause well these kids aren't really great basketball players. Sure UVA is a great team within the college basketball context of 2018, but they don't play great ball. They play careful because they know they are limited. They play well within their capabilities to be sure, but again don't confuse that with being good.

Excellent coaching + excellent execution ≠ excellent basketball

The game is more nuanced than that. You can get the best recipe and follow the instructions to a T, but it won't taste good if you don't use the highest quality ingredients.

That said, I like Tony Bennett I think he is one of the few young bright hopes that the next generation of coaches has. I'm very curious to see where the sport goes once these iconic generation of coaches retires (K, Roy, Izzo,) there's some young bright stars, but college basketball at this point is really all about the institution (Duke, UNC, UK) and mythology of their leaders (K, Roy, and so on). I imagine it'll always stay like this, but it'll be interesting if players will take the opportunity to maybe seize some power for themselves ($) and how people and media outlets like ESPN will market the game since all these old white dudes will be gone.

I'm one of those people who genuinely thinks that the quality of college basketball has gone down tremendously, while the NBA's quality of play has gone massively up in the past decade. Don't necessarily know if that's because of OAD, or some other factors, but college ball has really just become a mess of play. When I watched college ball growing up in the late 90's and early 00's the team's play wasn't worlds part from the NBA, now it just seems like NBA is in a whole another universe in terms of quality. The rankings have always been pretty silly if you think about them too long, but now they are pretty much meaningless. "Upsets" happen with regularity in the regular season now, and it seems to be the only draw that makes the season interesting is some arbitrary ranking.

Just feels like the best teams aren't even that good anymore.

Early enrty is probably the biggest culprit. However, college basketball is also a very poorly officiated game. I'm not against defense and don't want it to go the way of the NBA in terms of allowing the carrying and traveling, but in my opinion something has to be done to eliminate "physical play" which is really just code for foul so much you can't call all of them. I used to watch as much college basketball as I could, now I'm down to just Duke games. When I found myself screaming at the tv for a foul call while watching a random game in which I had no rooting interest it just want enjoyable anymore.

I want to see if somebody can stop Bagley, Haas, or Ayton by anticipating, cutting off their moves with quick feet, and being a wall to shoot over, not by shoving them when the entry pass is in the air. I want to see if West Virginia can trap, press, and cause havoc without hacking arms or bodying guys into traveling. I want games to be decided by skill not strength. I want to see basketball, not a football war in the trenches played on a basketball court.

duke4ever19
02-11-2018, 10:26 AM
Please explain to me how UVA is 7th in the country in raw scoring margin then.

Just because we don't do it with our offense doesn't mean we don't blow teams out.

8 of our 12 ACC wins are by double digits and we haven't even had the pleasure of playing Pitt yet.

It's a tempo/possessions-per-game issue here. Your defense is great, and the scoring margin is often a result of teams becoming frustrated by UVA's style of basketball and committing silly turnovers and wasting possessions with hero ball. This gives you guys a boost in the scoring margin.

But when you play a style of basketball where you limit possessions to an absolute minimum (as UVA does), there is wider statistical variance, thus increasing the likelihood of an upset. In a single-elimination game like the NCAA Tournament whose popularity is actually based on the crazy upsets and random guys catching fire from 3-point land (aka the statistical variance makers)etc., I wonder if UVA's style of basketball is ultimately its own worst enemy in a single-elimination format. So far, UVA's statistically great defenses have been bounced before the Final Four. I guess we will see if it happens yet again.

godins
02-11-2018, 11:03 AM
It's a sound theory, but one would think the weakness would show up in the regular season, too. That is, over a larger sample of games, it should be harder for UVA to post a gaudy record or win a regular season title because they just get involved in too many close games and inevitably lose some of them. As opposed to a faster-paced team that doesn't play as many close games. But, as we've seen, UVA has tended to be a regular season giant.

If the theory is that it is only a problem against NCAA tourney quality competition, then I would check their record against ACC teams that make the tournament, for example. And make a comparison to Duke, UNC, whomever, since 2014 (when UVA leveled up as a program). Even under those restrictions, I think UVA's record probably comes out ahead.

UVA's record does come out ahead, but I think we're too zoomed in looking at three teams. That said, it's interesting to size up UVA, Duke, and UNC through the lens of these last 5 years (since, in your words, UVA leveled up as a program). Against tournament teams,* UVA, Duke, and UNC compiled the following records, each team's best and worst seasons bolded:

2017-18**: UVA (9-2), Duke (5-2), UNC (6-5)
2016-17: UVA (8-8), Duke (13-6), UNC (11-5)
2015-16: UVA (10-3), Duke (6-8), UNC (7-5)
2014-15: UVA (9-3), Duke (12-3), UNC (7-10)
2013-14: UVA (10-4), Duke (9-5), UNC (8-6)
Total: UVA (46-20, 69.6 win%), Duke (45-24, 65.2 win%), UNC (39-31, 55.7 win%)
NCAA Record: UVA (7-4), Duke (9-3), UNC (14-3)

UNC's poor regular season performance somehow turns into good tournament results; the opposite has been true for UVA -- I sincerely hope this is the year they shake that off (not at Duke's expense, of course).

* I'm too lazy to cross-reference every single tournament team for the last 5 years. Instead, I used RPI top-60 opponents; very few teams above RPI-60 have received at-large bids since the committee began using RPI in 2005. RPI's faults notwithstanding, I would call a top-60 RPI team "tournament quality." I don't know how to account for the automatic qualifiers...
** This year's records are obviously still in flux. UVA has 2 more top-60 RPI games before the ACCT, Duke has 6, UNC has 4.

godins
02-11-2018, 11:14 AM
It's a tempo/possessions-per-game issue here. Your defense is great, and the scoring margin is often a result of teams becoming frustrated by UVA's style of basketball and committing silly turnovers and wasting possessions with hero ball. This gives you guys a boost in the scoring margin.

But when you play a style of basketball where you limit possessions to an absolute minimum (as UVA does), there is wider statistical variance, thus increasing the likelihood of an upset. In a single-elimination game like the NCAA Tournament whose popularity is actually based on the crazy upsets and random guys catching fire from 3-point land (aka the statistical variance makers)etc., I wonder if UVA's style of basketball is ultimately its own worst enemy in a single-elimination format. So far, UVA's statistically great defenses have been bounced before the Final Four. I guess we will see if it happens yet again.

Exactly. I remember when Duke played UVA in 2014-15 in Charlottesville, K gameplanned to attack UVA ruthlessly in transition; Winslow did exactly that and generated easy points, knocking UVA back on their heels. Tyus Stones took care of the rest.

I think the recipe for beating UVA in the packline is some combination of: (1) aggressive, trapping defense to generate turnovers, (2) taking advantage of every possible opportunity to push the ball in transition, even if you have to pull up if the scoring window closes, (3) take care of the ball at all costs and limit turnovers, (4) shoot the ball well from 3-point land (~35-40% of 3s). I don't think that combination of factors is altogether too unlikely to happen.

Trey21
02-11-2018, 01:36 PM
And the highest quality ingredients can go spoiled and the food will taste like crap.

You're judging us on our worst game of the season. What would your solution be for UVA? It's pretty easy to say "go get the highest quality ingredients" when you're Duke. But you're asking UVA to shop at Whole Foods or Trader Joes on a Kroger budget.

Hey, that's 100% true. You're absolutely not wrong, and I give you some props to sticking with the food analogy. I 100% respect it, but that doesn't necessarily mean I have to call it great basketball. It is careful basketball. Careful basketball can be great, but not when players are bricking wide open 3's, or taking ill advised shots. These factors are part of the game to be sure, even great teams can't avoid them, but at a certain point I'll draw a line. I get that I'm drawing these stats on one of Uva's worst performances of the year, but 34.4 FG and 28.9 3FG is just brutal stuff.

People are saying there's no great team in college basketball. Uh duh. That's kinda been obvious for the past 3 seasons in my opinion. 2015 UK was a great team, and 2015 Duke became a great team over a stretch. Last year's UNC team wouldn't have beaten 2016 team (if you remove that painful loss). College Gameday was having a discussion about this prior to the game.

Wahoo2000
02-11-2018, 01:39 PM
UVA's record does come out ahead, but I think we're too zoomed in looking at three teams. That said, it's interesting to size up UVA, Duke, and UNC through the lens of these last 5 years (since, in your words, UVA leveled up as a program). Against tournament teams,* UVA, Duke, and UNC compiled the following records, each team's best and worst seasons bolded:

2017-18**: UVA (9-2), Duke (5-2), UNC (6-5)
2016-17: UVA (8-8), Duke (13-6), UNC (11-5)
2015-16: UVA (10-3), Duke (6-8), UNC (7-5)
2014-15: UVA (9-3), Duke (12-3), UNC (7-10)
2013-14: UVA (10-4), Duke (9-5), UNC (8-6)
Total: UVA (46-20, 69.6 win%), Duke (45-24, 65.2 win%), UNC (39-31, 55.7 win%)
NCAA Record: UVA (7-4), Duke (9-3), UNC (14-3)

UNC's poor regular season performance somehow turns into good tournament results; the opposite has been true for UVA -- I sincerely hope this is the year they shake that off (not at Duke's expense, of course).

* I'm too lazy to cross-reference every single tournament team for the last 5 years. Instead, I used RPI top-60 opponents; very few teams above RPI-60 have received at-large bids since the committee began using RPI in 2005. RPI's faults notwithstanding, I would call a top-60 RPI team "tournament quality." I don't know how to account for the automatic qualifiers...
** This year's records are obviously still in flux. UVA has 2 more top-60 RPI games before the ACCT, Duke has 6, UNC has 4.

Too lazy to do the research myself, but I'd make a hefty wager we (UVA) are still going to come out on top vs other elite teams in this comp.


Our tournament success, or lack thereof, isn't a style issue (by any DEMONSTRABLE means, as your post and the one you're responding to point out).

In any sample size that small, I think you have to evaluate the games individually:
2014 - despite the seeding, this WAS NOT an upset. MSU was the prohibitive overall tournament favorite. The game came down to the last couple of possessions, and we lost. It was a good effort, not an "underperformance"
2015 - I'd call it a "mild" upset at best. MSU is already a tough matchup for us in general. We were also trying to get Anderson back into the mix, which was clearly affecting chemistry. Despite being a 2seed losing to a 7, it was disappointing, but FAR from a collapse.
2016 - Choke. Complete and utter choke. It wasn't our pace or style. Guys were on the precipice of doing something the program had been struggling for (much like yesterday), and they simply got tight at the same time Malachai Richardson probably played the best 7-8 minutes of his life. Completely disappointing, and worthy of ridicule. But not indicative of "slow pace can't win"... if anything, being up 17 points in the second half would FAVOR a slower pace team who limits possessions.
2017 - No Wilkins, no Nichols, Guy/Jerome are freshmen. We got "blowed out". Again, not pace related, just couldn't compete with UF on that day.


Edited to add: Interesting that the 3 teams cumulative record in those games leads to an inverse order of their actual tournament success. I'm fine with a tournament deciding the national champion. That said, perhaps the tournament, being a small sample size, is not the best way to determine who the actual best team is, hmmm?

The last team standing above the field of 64(or 68) is certainly a deserving champion, maybe more people need to just realize the champion isn't necessarily the "best" team (and that's a fairly common result).

jhmoss1812
02-11-2018, 01:55 PM
Hey, that's 100% true. You're absolutely not wrong, and I give you some props to sticking with the food analogy. I 100% respect it, but that doesn't necessarily mean I have to call it great basketball. It is careful basketball. Careful basketball can be great, but not when players are bricking wide open 3's, or taking ill advised shots. These factors are part of the game to be sure, even great teams can't avoid them, but at a certain point I'll draw a line. I get that I'm drawing these stats on one of Uva's worst performances of the year, but 34.4 FG and 28.9 3FG is just brutal stuff.

People are saying there's no great team in college basketball. Uh duh. That's kinda been obvious for the past 3 seasons in my opinion. 2015 UK was a great team, and 2015 Duke became a great team over a stretch. Last year's UNC team wouldn't have beaten 2016 team (if you remove that painful loss). College Gameday was having a discussion about this prior to the game.

In no way am I saying that our performance last night was good basketball. To continue the food analogy, our offensive performance last night was a soft-boiled fetal duck with a side of Durian fruit. But it's a huge outlier. On the season, UVA shoots 46% from the field, 38% from 3, and 77% from the line. In contrast, Duke shoots 51% from the field, 39% from 3, and 69% from the line. Despite having significantly worse talent, our offensive numbers aren't significantly worse than yours (one of the best offenses in the country). I have no problem if you find our style of play boring or lacking entertainment. Literally no one forces you to watch UVA play basketball. Even with a horrible offensive showing, we lost by 1 point in overtime.

Troublemaker
02-11-2018, 02:03 PM
They also failed to execute any kind of offense on the final possession, which ended with Jerome launching a 35-footer. Lots of uncharacteristic play from them in the final minute.

VaTech maybe got lucky that their player missed the free throw. I feel like in these buzzer-beater situations, college players usually launch a three so making the free throw to go up by 2 probably wouldn't have done the Hokies much good. Instead, they were up by 1 after the missed free throw and UVA rebound, and UVA didn't have a chance to inbound the ball deeper into the court or to get a running start towards the basket.

jhmoss1812
02-11-2018, 02:24 PM
It's a tempo/possessions-per-game issue here. Your defense is great, and the scoring margin is often a result of teams becoming frustrated by UVA's style of basketball and committing silly turnovers and wasting possessions with hero ball. This gives you guys a boost in the scoring margin.

But when you play a style of basketball where you limit possessions to an absolute minimum (as UVA does), there is wider statistical variance, thus increasing the likelihood of an upset. In a single-elimination game like the NCAA Tournament whose popularity is actually based on the crazy upsets and random guys catching fire from 3-point land (aka the statistical variance makers)etc., I wonder if UVA's style of basketball is ultimately its own worst enemy in a single-elimination format. So far, UVA's statistically great defenses have been bounced before the Final Four. I guess we will see if it happens yet again.

It might create a greater likelihood of an upset but it also creates a greater likelihood of beating teams with superior talent. If we ran a faster tempo against Duke and UNC, we would get run off the floor every single game. We don't have the horses to compete with the upper echelon teams on their terms. So we dictate the pace of play and give ourselves the best possible shot.

Even if our pace does create a greater likelihood of an upset, I can only think of one time under Bennett that UVA suffered a massive upset in the NCAA tournament - the Syracuse loss in the Elite 8. Sure, we haven't lived up to seed but that's not necessarily the same thing as being upset. The betting lines on both UVA-MSU games were very close and we were underdogs against UF in both games (both based on betting line and seed). UVA hasn't lost in the first round since 2012 and that was as an underdog in the 7-10 game vs. UF.

CDu
02-11-2018, 02:26 PM
It might create a greater likelihood of an upset but it also creates a greater likelihood of beating teams with superior talent. If we ran a faster tempo against Duke and UNC, we would get run off the floor every single game. We don't have the horses to compete with the upper echelon teams on their terms. So we dictate the pace of play and give ourselves the best possible shot.

Even if our paces does create a greater likelihood of an upset, I can only think of one time under Bennett that UVA suffered a massive upset in the NCAA tournament - the Syracuse loss in the Elite 8. Sure, we haven't lived up to seed but that's not necessarily the same thing as being upset. The betting lines on both UVA-MSU games were very close and we were underdogs against UF in both games (both based on betting line and seed). UVA hasn't lost in the first round since 2012 and that was as an underdog in the 7-10 game vs. UF.

And as has been noted, that loss wasn’t an issue of pace of play. Syracuse actually sped you guys up in that second half to make a giant comeback.

duke4ever19
02-11-2018, 03:06 PM
It might create a greater likelihood of an upset but it also creates a greater likelihood of beating teams with superior talent. If we ran a faster tempo against Duke and UNC, we would get run off the floor every single game. We don't have the horses to compete with the upper echelon teams on their terms. So we dictate the pace of play and give ourselves the best possible shot.

Even if our pace does create a greater likelihood of an upset, I can only think of one time under Bennett that UVA suffered a massive upset in the NCAA tournament - the Syracuse loss in the Elite 8. Sure, we haven't lived up to seed but that's not necessarily the same thing as being upset. The betting lines on both UVA-MSU games were very close and we were underdogs against UF in both games (both based on betting line and seed). UVA hasn't lost in the first round since 2012 and that was as an underdog in the 7-10 game vs. UF.

Who was the last team to win the National Championship playing a style of basketball with an average of 62-63 possessions-per-game?

Who was the last team to do it in the modern era of the NCAA Tournament playing at least 6 single-elimination games to win the title?

My argument isn't that UVA should get bounced in the first round based on their style of play. My argument is that UVA plays a style of basketball that, by it's very nature, statistically flirts with the possibility of an upset to a greater extent than other styles, based solely on their glacial pace of play.

jhmoss1812
02-11-2018, 03:38 PM
Who was the last team to win the National Championship playing a style of basketball with an average of 62-63 possessions-per-game?

Who was the last team to do it in the modern era of the NCAA Tournament playing at least 6 single-elimination games to win the title?

My argument isn't that UVA should get bounced in the first round based on their style of play. My argument is that UVA plays a style of basketball that, by it's very nature, statistically flirts with the possibility of an upset to a greater extent than other styles, based solely on their glacial pace of play.

So just play faster?

CDu
02-11-2018, 03:46 PM
Who was the last team to win the National Championship playing a style of basketball with an average of 62-63 possessions-per-game?

Who was the last team to do it in the modern era of the NCAA Tournament playing at least 6 single-elimination games to win the title?

My argument isn't that UVA should get bounced in the first round based on their style of play. My argument is that UVA plays a style of basketball that, by it's very nature, statistically flirts with the possibility of an upset to a greater extent than other styles, based solely on their glacial pace of play.

Wisconsin came darn close in 2015. Hell, that entire Final Four was super slow teams. Villanova was super slow in 2016. UConn in 2014. I am sure we could go on.

tbyers11
02-11-2018, 03:59 PM
So just play faster?

All other parameters being equal. To reduce the impact of "random variance" one should have more possessions. So yes.

However, the random variance is nearly totally independent from how good a team is. An opponent getting making 1-2 ridiculous 3 ptrs even though he was well guarded. A 93% FT shooter going 1-3 in the last minute of a game. I consider those random variance. IANAM, but if a team plays a glacial pace those factors seem more likely to make an impact mathematically. Regardless of how good a team's efficiency margin is.

duke4ever19
02-11-2018, 05:46 PM
So just play faster?

I don't follow. You want me to write a prescription for UVA? I'm a guy on a Duke message board wondering aloud if UVA's style of play is a negative in a single elimination tournament. Here's my opinion at this present moment: I think it is and Tony Bennett disagrees with me, because he's banking success despite what I've found.


Wisconsin came darn close in 2015. Hell, that entire Final Four was super slow teams. Villanova was super slow in 2016. UConn in 2014. I am sure we could go on.

We should go on, but I'm still wondering who the last NCAA champion to have a possession-per-game like UVA's. Does anybody know?

2014-15 Wisconsin finished the year with the #1 kenpom offense and the #35 defense 64.8 possessions-per-game.

UVA currently has the #48 offense to go with the #1 defense. 62.8 possessions-per-game

2016 Villanova: #3 offense, #5 defense. 68.8 possessions per game

2014 UConn is closest with #39 offense and the #10 defense. 68 possessions-per-game

2015 Kentucky: #6 offense and #1 defense. 66.2 possessions per game.

2014-15 Michigan St.: #14 offense and #27 defense. 68.2 possessions-per-game

Closest team to UVA in possessions-per-game is 2014-15 Wisconsin, who, ranking-wise, was a better offensive team than they were a defensive team.

CDu
02-11-2018, 09:09 PM
Per KenPom, UVa has an adjusted tempo of 59.1. Wisconsin had an adjusted tempo of 58.7 in 2015, and was 2 minutes from a title. So I am not sure what point you are trying to make, but clearly there is precedent for a super-slow team to do well in the tourney. That they came up a bit short in the title game hardly seems like a win for your argument. Wisconsin in 2015 is, in fact, the perfect model for what UVa wants to do. And none of the other Final Four teams played fast. All were 248th or worse in pace.

UConn in 2014 played the 254th slowest pace in D1. So again, slow-paced teams can win.

2016 Nova was 274th in pace.

2010 Duke was flying at the 227th pace. They won the title by about two inches over Butler, the 286th fastest team.

Were most of those teams faster than UVa and Wisconsin? Sure. But I am not sure 2-3 possessions over 40 minutes is noteworthy. All those teams were on the slow end, with most on the very slow side.

Also, why does it matter whether a team is defense or offense first? Your question only talked about pace of play.

duke4ever19
02-11-2018, 09:17 PM
Per KenPom, UVa has an adjusted tempo of 59.1. Wisconsin had an adjusted tempo of 58.7 in 2015, and was 2 minutes from a title. So I am not sure what point you are trying to make, but clearly there is precedent for a super-slow team to do well in the tourney. That they came up a bit short in the title game hardly seems like a win for your argument. Wisconsin in 2015 is, in fact, the perfect model for what UVa wants to do. And none of the other Final Four teams played fast. All were 248th or worse in pace.

UConn in 2014 played the 254th slowest pace in D1. So again, slow-paced teams can win.

2016 Nova was 274th in pace.

2010 Duke was flying at the 227th pace.

Were most of those teams faster than UVa and Wisconsin? Sure. But I am not sure 2-3 possessions over 40 minutes is noteworthy. All those teams were on the slow end, with most on the very slow side.

This isn't difficult, CDU. What is the last team to win the title playing a pace like UVA? Simple question. Do you know the answer to my question? You are turning my question into an argument about "if slow-paced teams can win." I'm not making that argument. You are turning my question into that. I'd like to know the last team to win the Championship playing at 62-62 possessions per game. If you can find one that won with even less possessions (ignoring the pre-shot-clock era), then that would be great.

My original argument was more an observation that anything: Teams with low possessions-per-game are at greater risk to statistical variance in the NCAA Tournament, which is a single-elimination game.

CDu
02-11-2018, 09:25 PM
This isn't difficult, CDU. What is the last team to win the title playing a pace like UVA? Simple question. Do you know the answer to my question?

My argument was more an observation that anything: Teams with low possessions-per-game are at greater risk to statistical variance in the NCAA Tournament, which is a single-elimination game.

I don’t know the answer. I have given you one team that played as slowly and yet came within a few possessions of a title, and several other teams that played extremely slowly and won or just barely lost in the title game. So clearly teams that play at that pace CAN win the title.

Your question isn’t terribly meaningful. Why should the bar be titles? Why specifically 63 possessions? Clearly slow-paced teams can do well in the tournament. Heck, UVa themselves would have made the Final Four if they could have slowed the second half against Syracuse. The Cuse won that game because they sped UVa up, not because UVa played slow. And as has been noted, UVa hasn’t otherwise lost in the tourney recently because of pace. They lost because of injuries to key players and getting the misfortune of facing MSU twice while dealing with those injuries.

duke4ever19
02-11-2018, 09:30 PM
I don’t know the answer. I have given you one team that played as slowly and yet came within a few possessions of a title, and several other teams that played extremely slowly and won or just barely lost in the title game. So clearly teams that play at that pace CAN win the title.

Your question isn’t terribly meaningful. Why should the bar be titles? Why specifically 63 possessions? Clearly slow-paced teams can do well in the tournament. Heck, UVa themselves would have made the Final Four if they could have slowed the second half against Syracuse. The Cuse won that game because they sped UVa up, not because UVa played slow. And as has been noted, UVa hasn’t otherwise lost in the tourney recently because of pace. They lost because of injuries to key players and getting the misfortune of facing MSU twice while dealing with those injuries.

(1) Thanks for admitting it, and I don't really care if you think my question is "relevant" or not.

(2) Why 63 possessions or under (I'm okay with examples under)? Because that's what my question is about.

godins
02-11-2018, 09:55 PM
I don’t know the answer. I have given you one team that played as slowly and yet came within a few possessions of a title, and several other teams that played extremely slowly and won or just barely lost in the title game. So clearly teams that play at that pace CAN win the title.

Your question isn’t terribly meaningful. Why should the bar be titles? Why specifically 63 possessions? Clearly slow-paced teams can do well in the tournament. Heck, UVa themselves would have made the Final Four if they could have slowed the second half against Syracuse. The Cuse won that game because they sped UVa up, not because UVa played slow. And as has been noted, UVa hasn’t otherwise lost in the tourney recently because of pace. They lost because of injuries to key players and getting the misfortune of facing MSU twice while dealing with those injuries.

Perhaps the better question is whether there's a historical analogue for 2017-18 UVA that's had good tournament success? Slow tempo + elite defense + less than elite offense. Wisconsin did play at a glacial pace in 2014-15 and did nearly win the title, but they were the inverse of UVA that year -- elite offense + less than elite (but still very good) defense. Teams like 14-15 Wisconsin and 15-16 Villanova, in theory, would be able to make up points quickly when the game sped up.

jhmoss1812
02-11-2018, 09:59 PM
(1) Thanks for admitting it, and I don't really care if you think my question is "relevant" or not.

(2) Why 63 possessions or under (I'm okay with examples under)? Because that's what my question is about.


I was bored so here are pace data from Kenpom for each champion since 2002. In parentheses is the number of possessions per game followed by where that ranked that year.

2017 - UNC (71.3 - 40)
2016 - Villanova (66.0 - 274)
2015 - Duke (65.8 - 104)
2014 - UCONN (63.2 - 254)
2013 - Louisville (65.8 - 116)
2012 - Kentucky (65.4 - 150)
2011 - UCONN (64.5 - 221)
2010 - Duke (64.7 - 229)
2009 - UNC (72.9 - 6)
2008 - Kansas (66.8 - 109)
2007 - Florida (65.8 - 162)
2006 - Florida (66.9 - 102)
2005 - UNC (73.1- 7)
2004 - UCONN (68.2 - 75)
2003 - Syracuse (71.0 - 32)
2002 - Maryland (73.7 - 15)

UCONN in 2014 won it all with 63 possessions per game. Interestingly, no one over 75 possessions per game has ever won it at all.

CDu
02-11-2018, 10:00 PM
(1) Thanks for admitting it, and I don't really care if you think my question is "relevant" or not.

(2) Why 63 possessions or under (I'm okay with examples under)? Because that's what my question is about.


Whatever floats your boat.

Aside from your question, there is the broader point about your observation. That is indeed an interesting conversation. I remember reading a few years back an analysis that found that there was a statistically-significant difference in the pace of play in tourney upsets versus nonupsets... in the opposite direction. Upsets happened in the faster games rather than the slower ones. The authors didn’t have a good reason for it. I will look for that article.

This also goes to Troublemaker’s point that statistical variance should ALSO mean UVa should be more likely to be upset in the regular season too (the logic should apply to every game). But that doesn’t seem to be the case. So I have to wonder if there is more at play.

Perhaps the link between pace of play and half-court defensive advantage is important: by keeping the pace slow, you prevent fast break chances, and fast breaks are the way lesser teams can score more easily. That is how Syracuse beat UVa: they pressed, forced turnovers, and thus didn’t face UVa’s defense as much. Just a theory, and not a long-pondered one.

jhmoss1812
02-11-2018, 10:03 PM
Perhaps the better question is whether there's a historical analogue for 2017-18 UVA that's had good tournament success? Slow tempo + elite defense + less than elite offense. Wisconsin did play at a glacial pace in 2014-15 and did nearly win the title, but they were the inverse of UVA that year -- elite offense + less than elite (but still very good) defense. Teams like 14-15 Wisconsin and 15-16 Villanova, in theory, would be able to make up points quickly when the game sped up.

Looks like UCONN in 2014 is the best comparison. Pace was 63.2 (rank 254) and adjusted offense was 113.6 (rank 39) and adjusted defense was 91.5 (rank 10). UVA currently has a better offensive efficiency (114.6) and a much better defensive efficiency (82.8).

They beat MSU, Florida, and Kentucky in games with 60 possessions or below.

duke4ever19
02-11-2018, 10:06 PM
I was bored so here are pace data from Kenpom for each champion since 2002. In parentheses is the number of possessions per game followed by where that ranked that year.

2017 - UNC (71.3 - 40)
2016 - Villanova (66.0 - 274)
2015 - Duke (65.8 - 104)
2014 - UCONN (63.2 - 254)
2013 - Louisville (65.8 - 116)
2012 - Kentucky (65.4 - 150)
2011 - UCONN (64.5 - 221)
2010 - Duke (64.7 - 229)
2009 - UNC (72.9 - 6)
2008 - Kansas (66.8 - 109)
2007 - Florida (65.8 - 162)
2006 - Florida (66.9 - 102)
2005 - UNC (73.1- 7)
2004 - UCONN (68.2 - 75)
2003 - Syracuse (71.0 - 32)
2002 - Maryland (73.7 - 15)

UCONN in 2014 won it all with 63 possessions per game. Interestingly, no one over 75 possessions per game has ever won it at all.

This is beautiful. Thank you. Yes, UConn looks close. The UVA offense is pretty close to the range UConn 2014 was in and UVA has a superior defensive rating right now (and probably into the rest of the season.)


Perhaps the better question is whether there's a historical analogue for 2017-18 UVA that's had good tournament success? Slow tempo + elite defense + less than elite offense. Wisconsin did play at a glacial pace in 2014-15 and did nearly win the title, but they were the inverse of UVA that year -- elite offense + less than elite (but still very good) defense. Teams like 14-15 Wisconsin and 15-16 Villanova, in theory, would be able to make up points quickly when the game sped up.

This is what I was trying to do, but specifically for past champions (won the whole thing). Hopefully I can find possessions-per-game pre-2002 somewhere.

godins
02-11-2018, 10:07 PM
Looks like UCONN in 2014 is the best comparison. Pace was 63.2 (rank 254) and adjusted offense was 113.6 (rank 39) and adjusted defense was 91.5 (rank 10). UVA currently has a better offensive efficiency (114.6) and a much better defensive efficiency (82.8).

Let's hope for the board's sake we don't have a repeat performance of that game in this year's tournament. I'm all for UVA doing well, but that UCONN game is still one of my biggest Duke what-ifs.

ETA: Sorry, I thought you said UCONN 2004, not 2014.

jhmoss1812
02-11-2018, 10:10 PM
Let's hope for the board's sake we don't have a repeat performance of that game in this year's tournament. I'm all for UVA doing well, but that UCONN game is still one of my biggest Duke what-ifs.

ETA: Sorry, I thought you said UCONN 2004, not 2014.

I actually had 2004 as a typo originally but edited it. Just so you know you're not going crazy :)

English
02-12-2018, 10:07 AM
Let's hope for the board's sake we don't have a repeat performance of that game in this year's tournament. I'm all for UVA doing well, but that UCONN game is still one of my biggest Duke what-ifs.

ETA: Sorry, I thought you said UCONN 2004, not 2014.

It would be in everyone's (well, everyone but the winner) best interests to avoid another game like that 2014 national championship game, too--that UConn vs. UK game was neigh unwatchable, and not only because of the participants. Ugly, ugly basketball game.