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rocketeli
01-30-2018, 03:58 PM
Don't want to jinx it, but since 2018 started Duval's been shooting 50% from 3 (9-18 over 8 games, 2.25 attempts per game) versus 2017 when he was at 16% (6-38 over 14 games for 2.7 attempts per game.) I read on another post that after he came to Duke he was found to have amblyopia and this was corrected (didn't say if he had surgery, better prescription for contacts, LASIK or what.) I would imagine that getting used to binocular vision after a long time without it might cause an adjustment period, so maybe he's turned a corner and getting used ti it?

uh_no
01-30-2018, 04:06 PM
Don't want to jinx it, but since 2018 started Duval's been shooting 50% from 3 (9-18 over 8 games, 2.25 attempts per game) versus 2017 when he was at 16% (6-38 over 14 games for 2.7 attempts per game.) I read on another post that after he came to Duke he was found to have amblyopia and this was corrected (didn't say if he had surgery, better prescription for contacts, LASIK or what.) I would imagine that getting used to binocular vision after a long time without it might cause an adjustment period, so maybe he's turned a corner and getting used ti it?

I think that may be a stretch given that he hasn't said as much. FT shooting is generally the best indicator of 3pt shooting, and in theory shouldn't depend on vision really all that much, and his FT shooting is still quite poor.

I think it's more likely that he's not a very good shooter, not as poor as he was in the fall, and not as good as he is now.

Freshman often take some time to coming around shooting (Luke), so if there is any real improvement, I'd think it just as likely his getting used to the game than anything, unless he comes out and says different.

duke96
01-30-2018, 04:28 PM
I think that may be a stretch given that he hasn't said as much. FT shooting is generally the best indicator of 3pt shooting, and in theory shouldn't depend on vision really all that much, and his FT shooting is still quite poor.

I think it's more likely that he's not a very good shooter, not as poor as he was in the fall, and not as good as he is now.

Freshman often take some time to coming around shooting (Luke), so if there is any real improvement, I'd think it just as likely his getting used to the game than anything, unless he comes out and says different.

Is free throw shooting a bettter indication of 3 point shooting than 3 point shooting is? Fascinating!

DukieInBrasil
01-30-2018, 04:41 PM
Is free throw shooting a bettter indication of 3 point shooting than 3 point shooting is? Fascinating!

i think uh was referring to the idea that NBA scouts generally think that collegiate FT shooting is a better indicator of NBA 3pt potential than collegiate 3pt shooting. Sample sizes and yadda yadda bing bing.

uh_no
01-30-2018, 04:51 PM
Is free throw shooting a bettter indication of 3 point shooting than 3 point shooting is? Fascinating!

no, of course not. but given we can't directly measure "given infinite trials, how good a three point shooter is duval?" and are left with a terribly small sample size instead, it makes sense to apply the principles of Bayesian probability...

That's like rolling a die once, getting 6, and claiming the die will only ever roll 6, ignoring the fact that it is a normal die and normal dice have an average roll of 3.5. Sure, actually ROLLING the die a gazillion times will be the better indicator, but given that we don't have a gazillion trials, we can use some other PRIOR knowledge to help avoid making invalid conclusions based on small data sets. Sure, after rolling a single 6, it's more likely that the die is rigged and will only ever roll 6, but given what we know about dice, that outcome still has extremely low confidence.

Sure, after Duval has hit a great percentage the past couple weeks, but given what we know about the correlation between FT shooting and 3 point shooting, his continually mediocre FT shooting, and about freshman and streaky three point shooting, and the fact that he is a freshman, it's still more likely that he's a mediocre shooter on a hot streak than it is he suddenly turned into Ray Allen after getting some eye work done. The eye work, of course, increases the chances that his eyes were a problem before, but not nearly enough to trump the other possibilities. Him coming out and saying "yeah the eye work helped" would be a huge amount of evidence towards the "eye" conclusion, but he HASN'T said that...and absence of evidence is weak evidence of absence.

Math. Fascinating :)

duke96
01-30-2018, 05:07 PM
I wouldn’t, and didn’t, say we have any evidence to point to the eye issue as dispositive to his 3 point shooting trends. But the persisting wish to identify Trevon as a bad 3 point shooter because he had a bad stretch early on in his freshman season (and despite our coaches’ evident encouragement that he keep shooting them) is silly.

uh_no
01-30-2018, 05:25 PM
I wouldn’t, and didn’t, say we have any evidence to point to the eye issue as dispositive to his 3 point shooting trends. But the persisting wish to identify Trevon as a bad 3 point shooter because he had a bad stretch early on in his freshman season (and despite our coaches’ evident encouragement that he keep shooting them) is silly.

no it's not. Duval has always been known as a bad shooter



Bagley and Duval shot enough 3-pointers at a bad enough rate on the AAU circuit that it's fair to call them non-shooters at this point

Clearly the assessment on bagley was wrong. It is still yet to be seen whether the assessment of duval is equally wrong...but pretending shooting wasn't one of his known weaknesses is, as you say, silly. I would argue that perhaps he is being smarter about the threes he is taking, matching his overall raise in conscience. He has fewer "bad" drives into massive number disadvantages.

duke96
01-30-2018, 05:41 PM
So just to be clear, is your assertion that (1) you have a better assessment of Duval’s 3 point shooting (in)capabilities than the coaching staff does, or (2) their understanding of his shooting (in)capabilities is in line with your own mastery of the subject, but they have nevertheless been unable to curtail his shooting? Presumably must be one of these?

Ian
01-30-2018, 05:43 PM
I wouldn’t, and didn’t, say we have any evidence to point to the eye issue as dispositive to his 3 point shooting trends. But the persisting wish to identify Trevon as a bad 3 point shooter because he had a bad stretch early on in his freshman season (and despite our coaches’ evident encouragement that he keep shooting them) is silly.

It's not just because of a bad stretch early in his freshmen season, he was also a poor shooter throughout his HS career. In 28 AAU games he shot 26/111 or 23%, and AAU games are notorious for bad defense.

Now the eye issues might have played into why he was a poor shooter in HS, it remains to be seen if his recent improvements are sustainable, but him being a poor shooter historically and this year is not really debateable.

kAzE
01-30-2018, 05:50 PM
Given at least 2 of his 9 misses in 2018 have been airballs, I don't think he's suddenly become Luke Kennard . . .

Troublemaker
01-30-2018, 05:51 PM
I wouldn’t, and didn’t, say we have any evidence to point to the eye issue as dispositive to his 3 point shooting trends. But the persisting wish to identify Trevon as a bad 3 point shooter because he had a bad stretch early on in his freshman season (and despite our coaches’ evident encouragement that he keep shooting them) is silly.


So just to be clear, is your assertion that (1) you have a better assessment of Duval’s 3 point shooting (in)capabilities than the coaching staff does, or (2) their understanding of his shooting (in)capabilities is in line with your own mastery of the subject, but they have nevertheless been unable to curtail his shooting? Presumably must be one of these?

You're operating under the assumption that the coaching staff would not want Trevon to shoot threes if he were a bad 3-pt shooter. I wouldn't assume that.

duke96
01-30-2018, 05:55 PM
You're operating under the assumption that the coaching staff would not want Trevon to shoot threes if he were a bad 3-pt shooter. I wouldn't assume that.

Indeed I am - any particular reason why they would not want him to do so if they don’t think it is the best play for our team in that situation?

Kedsy
01-30-2018, 05:56 PM
So just to be clear, is your assertion that (1) you have a better assessment of Duval’s 3 point shooting (in)capabilities than the coaching staff does, or (2) their understanding of his shooting (in)capabilities is in line with your own mastery of the subject, but they have nevertheless been unable to curtail his shooting? Presumably must be one of these?

No, it mustn't. The coaching staff's encouragement of Trevon to continue to take threes can be alternatively explained because (a) even bad shooters can improve their efficiency by taking better shots (i.e., open, in-rhythm, catch-and-shoot opportunities); and (b) it's important to the offense that all perimeter players take open threes to keep the defenses honest, even if those players are not great shooters.

And that's exactly what he's been doing. One reason (though certainly not the only one) Trevon's three-point percentage has gone up is because he has been more selective and taking better shots.

duke96
01-30-2018, 06:27 PM
Got it. Super impressive that he has more than tripled his effectiveness from 3 via better shot selection while only reducing his shots per game by 17%! Quite a curve there to ponder for you math wonks...

Kedsy
01-30-2018, 06:30 PM
Got it. Super impressive that he has more than tripled his effectiveness from 3 via better shot selection while only reducing his shots per game by 17%! Quite a curve there to ponder for you math wonks...

It's called sample size.

JayZee
01-30-2018, 06:34 PM
No, it mustn't. The coaching staff's encouragement of Trevon to continue to take threes can be alternatively explained because (a) even bad shooters can improve their efficiency by taking better shots (i.e., open, in-rhythm, catch-and-shoot opportunities); and (b) it's important to the offense that all perimeter players take open threes to keep the defenses honest, even if those players are not great shooters.

And that's exactly what he's been doing. One reason (though certainly not the only one) Trevon's three-point percentage has gone up is because he has been more selective and taking better shots.

I thought that Tre's FT's looked much improved last night. Good arc, good spin. Much less of the two handed shot put type shot from early in the season. I believe him when he's said that he's put a lot of work into his shot this year. Could mean a lot to Duke and even more to Trevon assuming he declares for the draft this year.

phaedrus
01-30-2018, 06:37 PM
Given at least 2 of his 9 misses in 2018 have been airballs, I don't think he's suddenly become Luke Kennard . . .

Whether Luke Kennard is an elite shooter is a matter of vigorous debate here.

duke96
01-30-2018, 06:51 PM
It's called sample size.

I don’t believe the math of statistical significance is on your side.

uh_no
01-30-2018, 07:02 PM
most people have answered the question that was asked of me.

lotusland
01-30-2018, 07:23 PM
No, it mustn't. The coaching staff's encouragement of Trevon to continue to take threes can be alternatively explained because (a) even bad shooters can improve their efficiency by taking better shots (i.e., open, in-rhythm, catch-and-shoot opportunities); and (b) it's important to the offense that all perimeter players take open threes to keep the defenses honest, even if those players are not great shooters.

And that's exactly what he's been doing. One reason (though certainly not the only one) Trevon's three-point percentage has gone up is because he has been more selective and taking better shots.

Doesn’t hurt either that we have a couple outstanding offensive rebounders underneath. It’s not like Duvall is launching 3s before anyone is underneath to rebound.

dukelifer
01-30-2018, 07:25 PM
Duval can hit that shot when set. I have not yet seen his ability to pull up and hit a 3. I am not sure he can hit that. His mid range game is not much better. He has a strong but not Kyrie or Steph level handle. He can get to the hoop but needs to work on getting that shot off against elite big guys. Duval will get better but he has a lot of work to do. He will try to develop that skill set in the NBA where it will be tough unless he gets a lot of playing time or practice time. The NBA game may be better suited to his strengths but NBA pt guards are expected to shoot the ball efficiently and run the show. It is a tough position to master even by guys who were excellent college guards.

cato
01-30-2018, 07:35 PM
Whether Luke Kennard is an elite shooter is a matter of vigorous debate here.

Huh? He was not an elite shooter from 3 his freshman year. He was as a soph. All along, we was elite from the free throw line.

Not sure what that has to do with Trevon.

subzero02
01-30-2018, 08:28 PM
Huh? He was not an elite shooter from 3 his freshman year. He was as a soph. All along, we was elite from the free throw line.

Not sure what that has to do with Trevon.

He was essentially in a year long slump from 3 as a freshman but still shot a respectable (32% on 55-172 shooting). He came into college with the reputation of an elite shooter having made 267 3's at a rate of 42.6%. His ridiculous performance from 3 as a sophomore (43.8% on 88-201 shooting ) and continued success from 3 as a rookie in the NBA (43% on 46-107 shooting) should qualify him as an elite shooter in anyone's book.

Kedsy
01-30-2018, 08:36 PM
I don’t believe the math of statistical significance is on your side.

Are you kidding, 9 for 18 vs. 6 for 38? And you're talking to me about tripling his effectiveness and think it's statistically significant?

I'm not a statistician -- and I don't know, maybe you are -- but it would seem to me the possibility of random variance is pretty high here.

cato
01-30-2018, 08:43 PM
He was essentially in a year long slump from 3 as a freshman but still shot a respectable (32% on 55-172 shooting). He came into college with the reputation of an elite shooter having made 267 3's at a rate of 42.6%. His ridiculous performance from 3 as a sophomore (43.8% on 88-201 shooting ) and continued success from 3 as a rookie in the NBA (43% on 46-107 shooting) should qualify him as an elite shooter in anyone's book.

So, you agree. He was a respectable but not elite 3 point shooter as a college freshmen. 172 shots is not a small sample.

dukelifer
01-30-2018, 09:04 PM
Duval can hit that shot when set. I have not yet seen his ability to pull up and hit a 3. I am not sure he can hit that. His mid range game is not much better. He has a strong but not Kyrie or Steph level handle. He can get to the hoop but needs to work on getting that shot off against elite big guys. Duval will get better but he has a lot of work to do. He will try to develop that skill set in the NBA where it will be tough unless he gets a lot of playing time or practice time. The NBA game may be better suited to his strengths but NBA pt guards are expected to shoot the ball efficiently and run the show. It is a tough position to master even by guys who were excellent college guards.

Watching Berry play pt tonight- a little pt guard who can dominate a ball game. This is what Trevon needs to learn how to do.

duke96
01-30-2018, 09:18 PM
Are you kidding, 9 for 18 vs. 6 for 38? And you're talking to me about tripling his effectiveness and think it's statistically significant?

I'm not a statistician -- and I don't know, maybe you are -- but it would seem to me the possibility of random variance is pretty high here.

You’re proving my point here. Or better said, disproving your own. You argued that his increased efficiency (3x) over the period described is largely based on a reduction in shot selection (by 17%). That doesn’t make much sense. That said, I did note in your signature link that you like to make things up, so cool if that’s your thing!

Anyhow I would maintain that logic would suggest that Trevon is a much better 3 point shooter than the first part of the season would indicate and, while I don’t think any of us expect 50% for 3 from him in the future, the coaches want him to keep shooting and this means they think he is a decent if not solid shooter from 3 generally and we should hope to see a respectable percentage gong forward.

CDu
01-30-2018, 09:20 PM
Watching Berry play pt tonight- a little pt guard who can dominate a ball game. This is what Trevon needs to learn how to do.

Duval is like the opposite of Berry. Berry is a small guy, not terribly athletic, not a break-you-down dribble guy, not a passing PG, but a heck of a shooter. Duval is a tall PG with ridiculous athleticism, great ballhandling and passing ability, able to beat his man off the dribble, but struggles to shoot.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-30-2018, 09:24 PM
Duval is like the opposite of Berry. Berry is a small guy, not terribly athletic, not a break-you-down dribble guy, not a passing PG, but a heck of a shooter. Duval is a tall PG with ridiculous athleticism, great ballhandling and passing ability, able to beat his man off the dribble, but struggles to shoot.

Not sure how you define athletic, but Berry is built like a brick, err, poop house. They showed his body progress during an earlier game this year, and he went from "jacked" to "holy cow."

There is more to athleticism than just muscle, but dude is ripped.

Kedsy
01-30-2018, 09:32 PM
...the coaches want him to keep shooting and this means they think he is a decent if not solid shooter from 3 generally and we should hope to see a respectable percentage gong forward.

Well, keep talking, but this is where you're argument is flawed. As I (and others) have tried to say to you, just because the coaches want him to shoot open, in-rhythm, catch-and-shoot threes does not necessarily mean they think he is "a decent if not solid shooter from 3 generally." It certainly doesn't mean "we should hope to see a respectable percentage going forward." All it means is that our offensive scheme depends on our perimeter players taking that shot when open.

Though I agree we can always hope.

duke96
01-30-2018, 09:40 PM
Well, keep talking, but this is where you're argument is flawed. As I (and others) have tried to say to you, just because the coaches want him to shoot open, in-rhythm, catch-and-shoot threes does not necessarily mean they think he is "a decent if not solid shooter from 3 generally." It certainly doesn't mean "we should hope to see a respectable percentage going forward." All it means is that our offensive scheme depends on our perimeter players taking that shot when open.

Though I agree we can always hope.

Well, not sure there’s much of a point to be divined there other than that you expect Duval will be expected to shoot primarily open, in-rhythm threes (which I think everyone probably agrees on) and you think he will have a poor percentage of these going of these going forward. I suspect he do the same but hold his own. Clearly we share the same hope.

CDu
01-30-2018, 09:44 PM
Not sure how you define athletic, but Berry is built like a brick, err, poop house. They showed his body progress during an earlier game this year, and he went from "jacked" to "holy cow."

There is more to athleticism than just muscle, but dude is ripped.

I was referring to run/jump athleticism, or explosiveness.

But yes, Berry is very strong.

Kedsy
01-30-2018, 09:59 PM
Well, not sure there’s much of a point to be divined there other than that you expect Duval will be expected to shoot primarily open, in-rhythm threes (which I think everyone probably agrees on) and you think he will have a poor percentage of these going of these going forward. I suspect he do the same but hold his own. Clearly we share the same hope.

What I think is historically he's been a poor shooter (for a great college ballplayer, anyway). I think his form has improved over the course of the season, but is still not the shooting form of a good shooter.

I also think that among perimeter players good enough to be first-round draft picks, even poor shooters can often hit wide open catch-and-shoot threes. I think if he and I played horse, I'd expect him to entirely kick my butt (even though in practice, unguarded and unpressured, I can make around 45% of my college threes). I think the coaching staff will try their hardest to find a way for him to take the best shots so that he has a higher percentage chance of making them. I think he needs to take those shots. I doubt the staff is confident he'll make a high percentage; I assume they just think that if he chooses his shots carefully he won't shoot such a dismal percentage that it isn't worth it.

And I don't necessarily think he'll "have a poor percentage of these going forward." I have no idea what percentage he'll make. I hope he makes them all.

So I guess, yeah, we share the same hope.

dukelifer
01-30-2018, 10:53 PM
Duval is like the opposite of Berry. Berry is a small guy, not terribly athletic, not a break-you-down dribble guy, not a passing PG, but a heck of a shooter. Duval is a tall PG with ridiculous athleticism, great ballhandling and passing ability, able to beat his man off the dribble, but struggles to shoot.

My point is that Berry controls the game in a way I have not seen by Duval. Berry finishes very well and takes contact in the lane. Duval has struggled at time to finish despite his athletic gifts. He has to get better with that midrange game. He is brilliant and frustrating at this stage of his career.

Furniture
01-30-2018, 10:55 PM
Most Assists by Duke Freshman
288 Bobby Hurley
220 Jason Williams
217 Tyus Jones
187 Greg Paulus
174 Chris Duhon
163 Tommy Amaker
134 Johnny Dawkins
132 Trevon Duval

uh_no
01-30-2018, 10:57 PM
Most Assists by Duke Freshman
288 | Bobby Hurley | 1990220 | Jason Williams | 2000217 | Tyus Jones | 2015187 | Greg Paulus | 2006174 | Chris Duhon | 2001163 | Tommy Amaker | 1984134 | Johnny Dawkins | 1983132 | Trevon Duval | 2018

Jones - 2015187

Darn, that's a lot of assists! over fifty thousand a game!

Furniture
01-30-2018, 10:59 PM
Jones - 2015187

Darn, that's a lot of assists! over fifty thousand a game!

????

uh_no
01-30-2018, 11:15 PM
????

it's likely you edited your post to reformat it, given the "original" post which was quoted clearly had the year appended to the front of the assist total.

In any case, it's a joke based on the original incorrectly formatted post. It's obvious jones did not have 2 million+ assists as the original post seemed to show.

Wander
01-30-2018, 11:41 PM
You’re proving my point here. Or better said, disproving your own. You argued that his increased efficiency (3x) over the period described is largely based on a reduction in shot selection (by 17%).

Shot selection is about far more than just number of shots taken. The gigantic flaw in your reasoning is your assumption that all 3s are basically the same difficulty. I know you don't explicitly state that, and you probably wouldn't agree with that statement, but it's sort of inherent in your argument. You should rewatch clips of Duval's 3s the past few weeks and then compare that to clips of some JJ Redick 3s or something.

gep
01-31-2018, 12:01 AM
Watching Berry play pt tonight- a little pt guard who can dominate a ball game. This is what Trevon needs to learn how to do.


Not sure how you define athletic, but Berry is built like a brick, err, poop house. They showed his body progress during an earlier game this year, and he went from "jacked" to "holy cow."

There is more to athleticism than just muscle, but dude is ripped.


My point is that Berry controls the game in a way I have not seen by Duval. Berry finishes very well and takes contact in the lane. Duval has struggled at time to finish despite his athletic gifts. He has to get better with that midrange game. He is brilliant and frustrating at this stage of his career.

And Joel Berry is a senior... 4 year player. Lots of time to learn and develop. Travon only played 22 games?

elvis14
01-31-2018, 09:40 AM
Shot selection is about far more than just number of shots taken. The gigantic flaw in your reasoning is your assumption that all 3s are basically the same difficulty. I know you don't explicitly state that, and you probably wouldn't agree with that statement, but it's sort of inherent in your argument. You should rewatch clips of Duval's 3s the past few weeks and then compare that to clips of some JJ Redick 3s or something.

As I was reading through this thread (which has a terrible, argumentative tone) I was waiting for someone to bring up shot selection. My impression has been that TD has done a good job of choosing when to shoot 3's. I just assumed he was shooting the 3 better because he was shooting better 3's. I think that if he makes good choices he has a chance to shoot 3's at an effective rate. Teams have been leaving him open from 3. If he's set and open, I hope he takes and makes the 3 because it'll keep teams from sagging off of him (which makes it easier for them to defend TD on the drive and to double our bigs). I'm not saying he's going to be a "good" 3 point shooter but I think that if he improves his shooting some and makes good choices he makes our offense even more effective.

As for the comparison with the Cheater, Berry...lets just say that we don't need Cheater references in every thread and surely we can find better comparisons for our student athletes.