MBB: Duke 88, Notre Dame 66 Post game thread

[FerryFor50]

Post your Jack White praise here.

[CameronDuke]

Man it doesn't get much better than seeing Jack White and Grayson Allen sitting beside each other grinning ear to ear. That was quite a moment for Duke fans. It looked like Grayson was finally having fun again and Jack just seems like a coach's dream to coach. Extremely unselfish player and he showed some game tonight. What a night for the young man from Australia. Enjoy being the big man on campus tomorrow Jack White!

[mattman91]

8038

[moonpie23]

great game by Jack tonight..... good to see him breaking out...

[FerryFor50]

Another slow start to a game, but it worked out against an inferior opponent.

Bagley struggled all day with ND's, um... physicality.

Duval was mostly good. Had a real solid 2nd half, but committed some silly fouls after gambling for steals.

Grayson found his shot a bit. Hopefully it carries over.

Carter was steady as ever, and HIT HIS FTS!!!! But who would have thought Trent would have been the leading rebounder?

Someone mentioned in the game chat that we didn't have many bench points (all but 2 of the 7 by Jack White), but I countered that Duke doesn't need bench points; they just need positive bench minutes to get starters some rest. Duke has plenty of scorers, so they don't need everyone to shoot. Rebounding, defense and energy is more important to this team IMO. Bench points are just gravy.

But Jack White? He's shown flashes all year, but he put it together tonight. Tough, aggressive rebounder with a nose for the ball and surprising hops on that putback dunk!

Good win. 2nd half was especially good. Defense looked solid most of the game, albeit with a few lapses. Seems to be stabilizing a bit.

On to the next game!

[gofurman]

What was it that changed the second half to make it so much better than the first?

[ipatent]

Jack White definitely has a nose for the ball for a player with his size and athletic ability.

[WVDUKEFAN]

He really brought a lot of energy and emotions to the floor. Seven boards show up in the box score. What doesn't show up is enthusiasm and heart.

One a side note- Jay Will thinks we are a zone team. I don't know that I disagree.

[jipops]

Nice to have Grayson back.

[Tripping William]

Aussie Aussie Aussie!

[Devilwin]

Jack really earned his minutes. Grayson broke loose, Duval was good, Trent was unreal. Nice job in the second half by everyone.

[FerryFor50]

What was it that changed the second half to make it so much better than the first?

Made shots on offense and more energy.

[wavedukefan70s]

Jack white could order a Big Mac at Burger King, and get one.

[mattman91]

What was it that changed the second half to make it so much better than the first?

IDK. But once they got going, a seven nation army couldn't hold them back.

[WVDUKEFAN]

Jack white could order a Big Mac at Burger King, and get one.

Definitely in Durham

[Mrezt]

Jack White! Jack White! Jack White!

And Grayson finally looked his normal self!

[burnspbesq]

Andrej Lemanis, the Boomers’ head coach, is going to really enjoy watching that tape.

[FerryFor50]

Definitely in Durham

In Durham, you'd just go to Only Burger or Bull City Burger. :cool:

[arnie]

He really brought a lot of energy and emotions to the floor. Seven boards show up in the box score. What doesn't show up is enthusiasm and heart.

One a side note- Jay Will thinks we are a zone team. I don't know that I disagree.

We have depth and extended minutes for the bench has to help later. Bolden isn’t ready yet.

[Ian]

What was it that changed the second half to make it so much better than the first?

Defensive rebounding. ND missed shots in the 1st half but had 9 OR which gave them another chance to score. Once Duke shut that down in the 2nd half they couldn't score to stay with Duke.

[CameronDuke]

Grayson looked a bit more aggressive offensively and hit a few midrange jumpers near the elbow and a 3 early to get him going a bit. Also had a great steal for a breakaway dunk.

Trent has a smooth jumper for a freshman and really for any collegiate player. He has a JJ/Andre Dawkins level jumper. When he attempts corner 3s it seems like he has to be shooting 60-70% from that spot this season.

Good to see Bolden back but he was wearing a brace on his knee so hopefully he continues to heal.

Duval hit a big 3 in the second half when Notre Dame had cut it to I believe 6 or 7. He also had a good lob to Bagley for an and 1 and also one great steal where he took it to the rack and got an and 1 himself.

Carter continues to be a man on the blocks and the boards. Seems every game now he makes a basket or two with NBA level back to the basket moves that just make you go "Wow."

Bagley played hard but looked a bit gassed and Notre Dame did a good job of forcing him off the blocks. Their big men were physical as hell on him too. Seemed they were knocking him around when he would catch the ball in the post and for the most part the officials allowed lots of contact on him.

If you had told me before the season we'd be 19-3, 7-3 heading to Madison Square Garden to take on the Johnnies I'd have taken it any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

[Saratoga2]

What was it that changed the second half to make it so much better than the first?

I thought Duke was taking difficult shots 9Spinning jumpers under pressure0 instead of working for a better quality shot. Bagley did a lot of that but it was also others. Some of those were turnovers. For quite a while during the second half especially, Duke was getting more open looks and they were scoring those at an increased clip. Also, I thought that Duke was giving up the corner 3 way too often and weren't getting out with a hand in NDs face. That has been true a lot for Duke this year and something they need to work on. Maybe its just communication. Still, Grayson had a much better game and Gary was hitting at a great clip. Carter is steady while Bagley was perhaps trying to make too many difficult shots.

Even though ND was very depleted, it still was a good win. NOt enough good things to say about Jack While. Rebounding, defending, making good passes, even scoring. Interesting that he went in with Grayson at PG. Neither O'Connell or Goldwire got in ahead of him and he showed the coaches to be correct. Maybe some more time against UVA and we win that game.

[Troublemaker]

That was fun. Jack played like his youtube highlights from Australia, which is a great compliment.

Agree that once we stopped giving ND extra possessions (ORebs, turnovers), we pulled away.

7th straight game holding an opponent under 100 offensive efficiency, which will lead to another uptick in kenpom. (At some point, we'll have to raise that bar, though. Can we keep teams under 90?)

[MartyClark]

Fun game. Duke was a little sloppy with the ball on offense but it was a good overall effort.

It was good to see Grayson hit a few shots, very good to see Jack White have a career game, excellent to see Grayson showing some joy.

[SkyBrickey]

Trent has really found his jumper. Wow. A poster compared him to JJ/Andre but I see another great Duke shooter. Trajan Langdon. They both have perfect form and kind of a cocking motion before they release a high soft shot. Trent is bigger and more athletic than Trajan but I see a lot of similarities in their games. JJ, Andre, Trajan - 3 of the best pure shooters in Duke history. At 42.2% from 3 and rising, it's starting to look like Trent might join the family. And I think it's looking less and less likely that he'll be back for a sophomore campaign.

[CDu]

Water found its level in the second half. This was a REALLY depleted Notre Dame squad, to the point that Jack White might have been a solid regular for them (especially once Mooney fouled out). The guys settled down cut down on the mistakes midway through the second half, and started knocking down shots. Once the shots started falling, the game was bound to get out of hand. And it did, rapidly. We went on a 28-4 run over ~8 minutes to finally bury them.

Fun, fun win. Everyone but Bagley had a good night. We did what we were supposed to do against an overmatched foe, and it was fun to see it happen.

Super happy for Jack White. He isn’t likely to get a ton of opportunities to shine in ACC play, so it was great to see him have a career night in this one. Also nice to see Allen get his shot back. And nice to see Duval settle down and let the game happen in the second half.

Now we get several days to prepare for St John’s and another long break before facing UNC. Love to go into a long break on a high feeling like this.

Go Duke!

[CDu]

That was fun. Jack played like his youtube highlights from Australia, which is a great compliment.

Agree that once we stopped giving ND extra possessions (ORebs, turnovers), we pulled away.

7th straight game holding an opponent under 100 offensive efficiency, which will lead to another uptick in kenpom. (At some point, we'll have to raise that bar, though. Can we keep teams under 90?)

KenPom has us at 50 right now. And I think (not sure) our adjusted defense is below 90 for this one too (and for the last 6-7 games).

Things are looking up defensively fo sho.

[Saratoga2]

Don't see a MOM up yet but I have to go so will mention my pick here:

Tempted to vivwe it to Jack While although I thoght Trent and Allen had more deserving games. I wound up thinking Grayson with his scoring and PG work with 8 assists deserved it the most and he hasn't been getting much love these days.

[lotusland]

Jack white could order a Big Mac at Burger King, and get one.

Legend has it that JW house-trained a crocodile with a rolled up news paper! Crikey!!!

[kAzE]

You all doubted him, but he has arrived! Jack White, the solid rotation player, is here!! :D

[CDu]

You all doubted him, but he has arrived! Jack White, the solid rotation player, is here!! :D

Haha! Easy, tiger. Easy...

Still, fun to see him have a great game.

[elvis14]

That was a fun second half to watch. With ND being depleted, that's what supposed to happen. Mostly glad to see the guys (especially GA and JW) having so much fun. It was good to see a basketball game after Saturday's no-call rugby scrum.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

Some are the best things about sports are found in Jack White's performance and the GOAT's post-game comments regarding Duval.

[UrinalCake]

Awesome to see White with that kind of effort and being rewarded with extended playing time. Was impressive not only with the buckets and the seven rebounds but he played really good individual defense even when matched up against bigger guys. I was at the game and the crowd was going nuts every time he touched the ball. Grayson and other players were exhorting the crowd from the bench, they clearly know what White brings in practice and were happy for him to get this kind of recognition.

As for the rest of the team, it was a really balanced effort with all five starters scoring 12+ points. We know that Bagley and Carter can put up monster numbers but I think we're a more dangerous team when everyone is getting involved and the ball is moving. Defense was mostly M2M but we did sprinkle in some zone which is just about perfect.

Wasn't crazy about the "NIT" chants coming from the crowd. Notre Dame has had a terrible run of injuries and are obviously not the same team they should be, plus it's not good for the conference (or for Duke) when one of its members misses the tournament and is relegated to the NIT.

[curtis325]

You all doubted him, but he has arrived! Jack White, the solid rotation player, is here!! :D

Crocodile Jack White--Duke's secret weapon!

[kAzE]

Haha! Easy, tiger. Easy...

Still, fun to see him have a great game.

It was a joke (kind of). The prediction was year 3, remember?

[moonpie23]

was great to see the team reward him with high fives and chest bumps...

[CDu]

It was a joke (kind of). The prediction was year 3, remember?

No I know, just playful banter back.

Loved seeing his energy tonight. Definitely got the crowd going and energized Allen. I am happy for the kid. What a great moment for him. And cool for Allen to be having so much fun with him.

[elvis14]

With 1:30 left Coach K subbed Jack White out. My 13 year old daughter was upset and asked why. This is what I told her:

Listen to the crowd. Hear them going crazy for Jack? That's why Coach K subbed him out, so he'd get a chance to hear that. He earned it.

[kAzE]

During the post game handshakes, the the TV cameras followed Bonzie Colson through the line, and he looked shorter than Gary Trent. That is incredible. I really hope that kid comes back this year. It sucks that he didn't get to play at Cameron as a senior.

[MrPoon]

During the post game handshakes, the the TV cameras followed Bonzie Colson through the line, and he looked shorter than Gary Trent. That is incredible. I really hope that kid comes back this year. It sucks that he didn't get to play at Cameron as a senior.

I was struck by that too, Trent and GA both looked about the same size as Colson.

[BandAlum83]

Aussie Aussie Aussie!

Oy Oy Oy!

[CameronDuke]

Coach K after the game said that when Duval hit a clutch 3 in the second half when Notre Dame had cut the lead to 6: "It meant more than three points. Even though three points was nice, it meant more for our team.” That was a huge shot and made basket for Duval and for Duke. To have the confidence to take that shot and also to nail it nothing but net coming off the game vs Virginia where Duval made some critical turnovers and didn't play his best was huge for his growth and this team's trajectory.

[heyman25]

Jack deserves more minutes. High energy with smart play. That is what we need from the bench. Bolden has a lot of rust to shake off. Javin seemed out of sync. O'Connell and Goldwire got some minutes.

Bagley was hacked a lot but he needs to finish with contact. He did not get it going tonight.

[InSpades]

With 1:30 left Coach K subbed Jack White out. My 13 year old daughter was upset and asked why. This is what I told her:

Listen to the crowd. Hear them going crazy for Jack? That's why Coach K subbed him out, so he'd get a chance to hear that. He earned it.

Only the 2nd team plays the last minute or 2 of a blowout... Jack White earned his place on that bench! (j/k, mostly).

[BandAlum83]

That was a MUCH BETTER split screen on Grayson than last year. :)

[ChillinDuke]

Water found its level in the second half. This was a REALLY depleted Notre Dame squad, to the point that Jack White might have been a solid regular for them (especially once Mooney fouled out). The guys settled down cut down on the mistakes midway through the second half, and started knocking down shots. Once the shots started falling, the game was bound to get out of hand. And it did, rapidly. We went on a 28-4 run over ~8 minutes to finally bury them.

Fun, fun win. Everyone but Bagley had a good night. We did what we were supposed to do against an overmatched foe, and it was fun to see it happen.


I agree this was an overmatched foe, but let's not totally mischaracterize them either. Other than a 30-point home drubbing by a surprisingly good NC State team, Notre Dame hasn't lost a single other ACC game by double digits. They've been in just about every game - home or away. I believe all of those games were without Colson and many without Farrell.

So while we should have beaten them, and they were clearly overmatched, this was by far their second worst defeat of the conference season.

Let's accurately portray that fact and not fully discount this as a "we did what we needed to do" win.

Very solid win.

- Chillin

[devildeac]

With 1:30 left Coach K subbed Jack White out. My 13 year old daughter was upset and asked why. This is what I told her:

Listen to the crowd. Hear them going crazy for Jack? That's why Coach K subbed him out, so he'd get a chance to hear that. He earned it.

Is this your idea of trolling for MOTM votes for Jack White?

(I hope/think/know elvis14 will "get" this and I hope the rest of DBR has their collective amusement/enjoyment meters well-calibrated tonight ;).)

[kAzE]

I agree this was an overmatched foe, but let's not totally mischaracterize them either. Other than a 30-point home drubbing by a surprisingly good NC State team, Notre Dame hasn't lost a single other ACC game by double digits. They've been in just about every game - home or away. I believe all of those games were without Colson and many without Farrell.

So while we should have beaten them, and they were clearly overmatched, this was by far their second worst defeat of the conference season.

Let's accurately portray that fact and not fully discount this as a "we did what we needed to do" win.

Very solid win.

- Chillin

Absolutely. Notre Dame is a tough and well-coached team. I thought this was an impressive win. We were only favored by 6.5

[tbyers11]

I agree this was an overmatched foe, but let's not totally mischaracterize them either. Other than a 30-point home drubbing by a surprisingly good NC State team, Notre Dame hasn't lost a single other ACC game by double digits. They've been in just about every game - home or away. I believe all of those games were without Colson and many without Farrell.

So while we should have beaten them, and they were clearly overmatched, this was by far their second worst defeat of the conference season.

Let's accurately portray that fact and not fully discount this as a "we did what we needed to do" win.

Very solid win.

- Chillin

Umm, Notre Dame beat NC State at ND by 30 points. That was their first game after Bonzie's injury and the game in which Farrell got injured.

Other than that I agree with you. All the other losses in their depleted state were by single digits including 1 point to UNC and 2OT loss to Louisville (Farrell played in that one).

[CameronDuke]

Absolutely. Notre Dame is a tough and well-coached team. I thought this was an impressive win. We were only favored by 6.5

Was it just Duke -6.5? I could have sworn Duke was -14.5 to -15 in most spots I was seeing before tipoff.

[tbyers11]

Absolutely. Notre Dame is a tough and well-coached team. I thought this was an impressive win. We were only favored by 6.5

We were favored by a lot more than that. I saw 14 to 15.5 from various sources.

[weezie]

Fun game. Duke was a little sloppy with the ball on offense but it was a good overall effort. It was good to see Grayson hit a few shots, very good to see Jack White have a career game, excellent to see Grayson showing some joy.

Weeeellll, ok then. What I can't figure out is the many many many picks Duke still runs into. It's like that Geico commercial about walking into the plate glass window, do they like it?

Grayson is playing defense on a whole other level. Marvin showed some great D in the mid-second half, too. ND is truly pitiful. I don't feel sorry for opposing teams, ever, but watching Bonzie as he watched that beat down, I felt bad for the kid.

Still a long road to travel.

[uh_no]

good win. two long breaks between games. lets stomp some storm on the way to the dump.

[dukelifer]

Got to see the team in Cameron. Game had it all for a fan. Started with boatload of dumb turnovers and Marvin Bagley showing he may be mortal- a much needed Grayson Allen complete game sighting- some spectacular dunks and finishing with magical 18-0 run sparked by Mr. White. Allen did what seniors need to do after a tough loss and a short turnaround. He gave the team energy. Trent is a very good college player. I am not sure if his game will translate to the next level- but the kid can shoot the ball and has great patience. He plays like a veteran. Duval must drive the coaching staff nuts. His first half play was bad with forced passes and poor decisions, but give him credit- he made some excellent plays in the second half and hit a big three. White continues to show he can rebound the ball in traffic and it was great to see him contribute during that big run. The fans really appreciated Jack's effort tonight. Good win.

[Kedsy]

Umm, Notre Dame beat NC State at ND by 30 points. That was their first game after Bonzie's injury and the game in which Farrell got injured.

Other than that I agree with you. All the other losses in their depleted state were by single digits including 1 point to UNC and 2OT loss to Louisville (Farrell played in that one).

Yes, this is right. Tonight was Notre Dame's worst loss of the season, and 13 points worse than its second-worst loss in the ACC.

[mpj96]

Great game by the Crazies. Totally shut down 00 with an impassioned chant of airball every time he touched it. You absolutely crushed his confidence. Beautiful to watch. Well done. More please.

[InSpades]

I'm definitely critical of the team not being very fun to watch (not that they aren't exciting... just sometimes frustrating) but tonight was a pure joy. I know ND was without most of their big hitters (and I hope they come back strong and healthy, they are probably my 2nd favorite ACC team).... but it's great to see the team play w/ such joy and passion. Everything wasn't smooth but the big run was great. The defense was better. Everyone seemed to contribute. Grayson and Gary starting to hit their shots is a great sign for the future. The defense is looking better and better (something I was definitely worried about). The bigs seem to bring it every night even though Marvin had a bit of a struggle on the offensive end tonight. Trevon... sometimes you still infuriate me but then you do some amazing things and I'm not sure what to think any more.

Jack White... what a game. He actually looked really good out there. Sky-ing over Marvin Bagley for the put back... oh boy. Offensive boards, defensive boards... drain the open 3.

Hope to see something similar in the Garden this weekend! I will be lucky enough to see them in person!

[BigWayne]

You all doubted him, but he has arrived! Jack White, the solid rotation player, is here!! :D

I have been watching him when he is in games for a while now as opposed to following the ball. He is always working hard, but a lot of what he did just didn't get to the box score before tonight. Good to see him finally get some attention.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

During the post game handshakes, the the TV cameras followed Bonzie Colson through the line, and he looked shorter than Gary Trent. That is incredible. I really hope that kid comes back this year. It sucks that he didn't get to play at Cameron as a senior.

I agree. Bonzi is one of the best ever to suit up for Notre Dame. Definitely a legit ACC POY candidate this year. Hate to see his season cut short. He looked so enthusiastic and frustrated on the bench.

Good game for Bagley to have his first real "off" night. Notre Dame simply didn't have the healthy talented bodies to make it an issue in the second half.

Nice to have a game that we put away. Go Duke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Got to see the team in Cameron. Game had it all for a fan. Started with boatload of dumb turnovers and Marvin Bagley showing he may be mortal

You take that back...

[Spanarkel]

I feel that Jack deserves consideration for an assist after his offensive rebound at the 8:18 mark in the second half. White passed to GA, who passed to GTJr for the three, but according the NCAA rules "it is not even necessary that the assist be on the last pass(of the play)." White was thinking two steps ahead of the action on that play!

Reference: 2007 NCAA Statisticians Manual/Section 5(Assists): Philosophy and A.R. 10(sorry, couldn't get the link to work)


http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=211694864&DB_OEM_ID=4200

[porkpa]

They were great at times, facing a severely depleted Notre Dame team. But some of those passes? OY!! They must have happened three or four times, maybe more, when we just gave the ball away. In a reasonably evenly matched game, those are the difference between winning and losing.

[Channing]

Can we stop with the alley-oop passesto the Westside that continue to get knocked away. The AO should be a great weapon for us when done like Duvall last game. Though, I do want to see more alley-oop passes from Wendell aka the uva game.

[wavedukefan70s]

I wonder how many more teams will employ hack a shack on bagley?

[elvis14]

Is this your idea of trolling for MOTM votes for Jack White?

(I hope/think/know elvis14 will "get" this and I hope the rest of DBR has their collective amusement/enjoyment meters well-calibrated tonight ;).)

LOL, you know me and my MOTM rants too well. So funny! Maja says "hi".

[godins]

I wonder how many more teams will employ hack a shack on bagley?

I don't know that that's such a great idea. Marvin is shooting 62% FT for the year and an identical 62% FT in conference play, but he's shooting marginally better -- 66% -- when attempting 8 more free throws in a game this year (an arbitrary threshold for when a FT shooter might be deemed "in rhythm"). Those aren't stellar numbers but they're sure better than Shaq's career 53% FT or Andre Drummond's 41%. Moreover, Marvin has good mechanics on his shot. If anything, I'd hack-a-Tre to put Duval on the line. He's shooting 60% FT on fewer attempts per game.

[du_bb1]

Echo thoughts about this being fun game and loved JW having such an impact. in his limited minutes he has been playing with lots of energy and very good D, both MTM and zone-glad to see him take that three. Frustrating at times with some of the passes-trying for the spectacular vs the easy.
I thought the MTM was actually not bad-certainly improving and at times the rotations were very good, also thought Bolden mostly did well on D, just needs to stay aggressive and earn more game time as his knee strengthens.

[burnspbesq]

The Wisdom imparted to Jack White by Patrick Davidson has finally taken hold.

[DukieInBrasil]

Another slow start to a game, but it worked out against an inferior opponent.
Bagley struggled all day with ND's, um... physicality.
Duval was mostly good. Had a real solid 2nd half, but committed some silly fouls after gambling for steals.
Grayson found his shot a bit. Hopefully it carries over.
Carter was steady as ever, and HIT HIS FTS!!!! But who would have thought Trent would have been the leading rebounder?
Someone mentioned in the game chat that we didn't have many bench points (all but 2 of the 7 by Jack White), but I countered that Duke doesn't need bench points; they just need positive bench minutes to get starters some rest. Duke has plenty of scorers, so they don't need everyone to shoot. Rebounding, defense and energy is more important to this team IMO. Bench points are just gravy.
But Jack White? He's shown flashes all year, but he put it together tonight. Tough, aggressive rebounder with a nose for the ball and surprising hops on that putback dunk!
Good win. 2nd half was especially good. Defense looked solid most of the game, albeit with a few lapses. Seems to be stabilizing a bit.
On to the next game!

This happened some vs ND but also vs UVA where the defender is posted up behind Bagley and as the entry pass comes in Bagley goes up to grab it and the defender just pushes him in the lower back undercutting him and causing him to miss the pass. How is that not a foul? Physicality is one thing, just fouling is another. so yeah, um....physicality.
About the bench, i totally agree. The only bench player who i think of as an offensive option is AOC, and maybe some hustle points from Javin, but otherwise just getting a few rebounds, and a few good defensive plays from our bench is all i'm looking for. That being said, i think 10 points from the bench in any particular game is a good result. The UVA game was really slow paced, but 0 points from the bench was weak. This game was a faster pace, and we got 7 bench points, which was pretty good.


What was it that changed the second half to make it so much better than the first?
When Mooney got his 5th foul, Duke really put the pedal down and smashed ND. I think we were already playing better at that point but, they really couldn't keep up with Duke without Mooney.


We have depth and extended minutes for the bench has to help later. Bolden isn’t ready yet.

I agree that Bolden isn't ready, in that he doesn't look as fluid as he did before the injury. What stood out to me was a play where Bolden was "defending" the lane kinda semi-doubling somebody else's big, and the pass went to the big Bolden was supposed to be guarding who got an uncontested dunk while Bolden kinda just looked on. He also completely whiffed on a great pass from Bagley that should have gone for an emphatic dunk. It'll take another game or so for him to get back in rhythm with his teammates. Aside from that, i think it will still be a while until he figures out how to use his size and skills at this level (let alone any thoughts about the NBA). It seems like he has decent hands, he moves his feet laterally pretty well for a big big man, he is a pretty good shot blocker. He's not a good rebounder for his size or position and he doesn't have very good touch on his shots. I think he needs to get stronger in his legs to hold his position better etc., but he's had some leg injuries already so maybe that's holding back his strength development too.

[Lar77]

After Saturday's disappointment, this was a great celebration led by Mr. White. He now knows he belongs. That will be a plus down the line (see Allen, G., v. WFU 2015)

Mooney was channeling his inner Bonzie in the first half, but then was pretty much shut down until he was fouled out. Speaking of Bonzie, even though he has killed us over the years, he has my respect as a player and as a person. Really thought he was the ACC POY last year, but the writers thought otherwise.

We still play a lot of AAU hero ball out there, but it's getting better, especially after halftime.

Clearly, players spent Sunday shooting free throws.

I like how the team's defense is emerging. Zone is not the answer (we are not really good at it), but it's a good mix-in.

I don't expect SJU to be a challenge for us, but it should give an opportunity to continue to develop so we are in killer mode on the 8th.

[rsvman]

It seems that teams have figured out Bagley's Kryptonite, at least to a certain extent. I mean, even when his Kryptonite is employed, he's still really good, but it takes away the jaw-dropping aspects. The Kryptonite is simple: play him physically and always force him to go to his right.

That's it.


Bagley is so much more effective when he goes to his left. I noticed over the past couple of games that even when he goes right he usually attempts to put the shot up with his left hand. Even if he makes a move that begs for a right-handed hook shot. He has the defender on his left shoulder, he has position in the center of the lane, moving to his right, 3 feet from the basket. If he were to go up with the right hand, the shot would be unalterable. But he goes up with the left, right into the defender. The shot has very little chance. I assume that he doesn't really have that right-handed short hook in his arsenal, or he would employ it. If he develops it, he will become unstoppable. But since he hasn't yet, opposing teams are going to continue to employ the same strategy. Play him very physically and always force him to his right.

Don't get me wrong. He's still amazing. But this type of defensive strategy turns him back into a mere mortal who happens to be a great basketball player.


Overall, I was very pleased with the game. I especially liked seeing Grayson making some shots. Not to mention that he also looked like he was having fun, which I think is key.

[devildeac]

I wonder how many more teams will employ hack a shack on bagley?

How many games do we have remaining this year? Or, maybe a better answer would be "all." :mad:

[dukelifer]

You take that back...

On further reflection it is possible that they forgot to plug Marvin into the charger last night- it happens

[dukelifer]

It seems that teams have figured out Bagley's Kryptonite, at least to a certain extent. I mean, even when his Kryptonite is employed, he's still really good, but it takes away the jaw-dropping aspects. The Kryptonite is simple: play him physically and always force him to go to his right.

That's it.


Bagley is so much more effective when he goes to his left. I noticed over the past couple of games that even when he goes right he usually attempts to put the shot up with his left hand. Even if he makes a move that begs for a right-handed hook shot. He has the defender on his left shoulder, he has position in the center of the lane, moving to his right, 3 feet from the basket. If he were to go up with the right hand, the shot would be unalterable. But he goes up with the left, right into the defender. The shot has very little chance. I assume that he doesn't really have that right-handed short hook in his arsenal, or he would employ it. If he develops it, he will become unstoppable. But since he hasn't yet, opposing teams are going to continue to employ the same strategy. Play him very physically and always force him to his right.

Don't get me wrong. He's still amazing. But this type of defensive strategy turns him back into a mere mortal who happens to be a great basketball player.


Overall, I was very pleased with the game. I especially liked seeing Grayson making some shots. Not to mention that he also looked like he was having fun, which I think is key.

I will wait until I see what happens after he doesn’t have a monster game with a quick turnaround- but like most players- eventually teams figure out your weaknesses. Bagley will need to expand his skill set but that will only make him more dominant.

[chrishoke]

FYI, the Mike Brey press conference is up at GoDuke.com. I highly recommend it. It's less than 3 minutes, he doesn't say anything profound but I love his attitude and demeanor. ND isvery lucky to have Mike.

[godins]

FYI, the Mike Brey press conference is up at GoDuke.com. I highly recommend it. It's less than 3 minutes, he doesn't say anything profound but I love his attitude and demeanor. ND isvery lucky to have Mike.

Link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_Jf27GHhP4&t=92s

[Sir Stealth]

Was very happy to see how the whole team, even those competing with him for playing time, seemed genuinely excited and happy for Jack that he broke out and played such a good game. If anything I think that it was all taken a little too far - the kid shouldn't be treated like a walk on who comes into garbage time and gets up a 3, he can clearly play and no doubt earned his playing time in practice. Sometimes overpraise can cross the line where it's not really a compliment anymore. So I just hope that the team and coaching staff are in Jack's ear to make sure he knows that they expect him to consistently play at that level because they know he's capable of it - I mean hell the guy was out there skying over Bagley for a putback dunk, showing a smooth jumper, and grabbing every rebound in sight. It was treated like a joke that he got the postgame interview, but we could really use that kind of tough glue guy play even this year, and certainly as he continues to develop the next couple of years.

[kAzE]

We were favored by a lot more than that. I saw 14 to 15.5 from various sources.

Yeah, that was my bad, it was 14.5

[Dev11]

After Saturday's disappointment, this was a great celebration led by Mr. White. He now knows he belongs. That will be a plus down the line (see Allen, G., v. WFU 2015)

I had a similar thought about White, although it was Allen's game against ND that triggered it. Same idea, though, and if Jack White somehow is a hero for us in the Final Four this year, we can point to this game.

[UrinalCake]

The Kryptonite is simple: play him physically and always force him to go to his right.


8041

[Saratoga2]

Was very happy to see how the whole team, even those competing with him for playing time, seemed genuinely excited and happy for Jack that he broke out and played such a good game. If anything I think that it was all taken a little too far - the kid shouldn't be treated like a walk on who comes into garbage time and gets up a 3, he can clearly play and no doubt earned his playing time in practice. Sometimes overpraise can cross the line where it's not really a compliment anymore. So I just hope that the team and coaching staff are in Jack's ear to make sure he knows that they expect him to consistently play at that level because they know he's capable of it - I mean hell the guy was out there skying over Bagley for a putback dunk, showing a smooth jumper, and grabbing every rebound in sight. It was treated like a joke that he got the postgame interview, but we could really use that kind of tough glue guy play even this year, and certainly as he continues to develop the next couple of years.

Good point. There has been talk about our big men for next year and we can now consider Jack playing at the power forward against some teams. So we expect to have at least 3 big men next year and if Robinson plays well a fourth.

[szstark]

I think the last two games provide excellent examples of how one play can make a big difference. If Duval doesn’t hit that three when ND had cut the lead to six with about 12 minutes to play, the talk on this board would probably have been very different today. We would probably have still won the game, but we would be discussing “how did we allow such a depleted team to stay that close” and “why did he take that shot”. The same can be said for Carter missing the front end of the one-and-one up three with six to go Saturday. If he makes that shot, I think the entire end-game situation changes, certainly psychologically, for the entire team. One play making such a difference is probably one of the reasons we are all such passionate fans.

[fgb]

I wonder how many more teams will employ hack a shack on bagley? probably all of them, as long as the officials continue to not call fouls for hacking him.

[Billy Dat]

Props to Jack White. It's always great when a bench guy has a night like that.


Coach K after the game said that when Duval hit a clutch 3 in the second half when Notre Dame had cut the lead to 6: "It meant more than three points. Even though three points was nice, it meant more for our team.” That was a huge shot and made basket for Duval and for Duke.

I think the last two games provide excellent examples of how one play can make a big difference. If Duval doesn’t hit that three when ND had cut the lead to six with about 12 minutes to play, the talk on this board would probably have been very different today. We would probably have still won the game, but we would be discussing “how did we allow such a depleted team to stay that close” and “why did he take that shot”.

It was the right shot to take, I was yelling at him to take it (doesn't mean I wasn't happily surprised when it went in) and I agree about it's importance. Up to that point, I found the game to be extremely frustrating but kind of expected due to the tough loss 48 hours before. While the "4th quarter" washed a lot of that away, we looked really ragged and shaky up until that point.


Jack deserves more minutes. High energy with smart play. That is what we need from the bench. Bolden has a lot of rust to shake off. Javin seemed out of sync. O'Connell and Goldwire got some minutes.

While it was Jack's night, I don't think we know anything about our bench at this point, other than it's kind of a "next man up" situation where we don't know who we can count on from game to game. Our presumed top 3 (AOC, Javin, Marquese) are all injured or sick, and the next 3 (White, Goldwire, JRob) are impossible to predict what will happen game to game. I'd love to think that Jack is emerging, and I am guessing he'll be an early sub off the bench in MSG, but at this point our bench is still an enormous question mark. I guess that represents upside.


When Mooney got his 5th foul, Duke really put the pedal down and smashed ND. I think we were already playing better at that point but, they really couldn't keep up with Duke without Mooney.

What an odd game for Mooney. Nailing 3 after 3 with a wacky hitch-addled stroke then he fouls out with 9 minutes to go.


I like how the team's defense is emerging. Zone is not the answer (we are not really good at it), but it's a good mix-in.

I didn't notice us play zone once, we may have, but it was very little...which makes me ponder our defense as much as I ponder our bench. However, unlike the bench, the defense is statistically improving despite our (but perhaps because of) our unpredictable shifting from man to zone. I have to admit that for the first 30 minutes of the game, I didn't think our defense was very good, they missed a ton of open 3s. But, I am trying to trust the numbers more than my eyes. ND, even depleted, makes you defend. They are usually a poor man's modern Duke with a gaudy offense and weak defense. Right now, their KenPom scores are identical 47s for each.

Glad to see Grayson hit some shots. Sad to see a lot of turnovers.


I don't expect SJU to be a challenge for us, but it should give an opportunity to continue to develop so we are in killer mode on the 8th.

That's the funny thing about SJU and Duke, especially at MSG, they tend to give us a game. They are top 100 and have a decent defense...hopefully we get ahead early and can keep vetting our bench.

[kAzE]

I don't think I'm qualified to lead the drum beat on Jack White (I'm decidedly biased), but as far as the eye test goes, Jack seems to have really improved his body over the past year. He's always been a tough kid, but he looks much stronger and bouncier than last year. Still not the quickest guy out there, buts he's tough and he's smart. I don't know if he's the best rebounder off our bench, but he's definitely the toughest guy on the bench. I don't often see Marques and Javin going for rebounds in traffic quite like Jack. Javin's a great rebounder, but Jack just seems to have a nose for the ball. Alex has that quality somewhat as well (just kind of being in the right place when there is a loose ball), but he's clearly not at the same level physically as Jack.

Notre Dame wasn't even close to full strength, but they have tough players, and Jack didn't seem out of place competing against those guys. That's as far as I'll go. I wouldn't expect him to sniff significant minutes against a top 10 opponent, but he might be a guy who you can put in there for a shot of toughness. He certainly has a positive effect on the team when he plays well.

[Matches]

While it was Jack's night, I don't think we know anything about our bench at this point, other than it's kind of a "next man up" situation where we don't know who we can count on from game to game. Our presumed top 3 (AOC, Javin, Marquese) are all injured or sick, and the next 3 (White, Goldwire, JRob) are impossible to predict what will happen game to game. I'd love to think that Jack is emerging, and I am guessing he'll be an early sub off the bench in MSG, but at this point our bench is still an enormous question mark. I guess that represents upside.


The thing I really like about White in that 6th man role is that he is versatile enough to be a super-sub. K can sub him in anywhere from the 2 to the 4, and can shift Allen or Bagley to the 1 or 5 if need be as well. Bobby Cremins used to love to do that at GT - he'd only play 6 guys but the 6th guy would play a good bit and give all five starters a break.

It is, of course, one game though. Very happy to see the kid play well, and hopefully he can build on that next game.

[ChillinDuke]

Umm, Notre Dame beat NC State at ND by 30 points. That was their first game after Bonzie's injury and the game in which Farrell got injured.

Other than that I agree with you. All the other losses in their depleted state were by single digits including 1 point to UNC and 2OT loss to Louisville (Farrell played in that one).

My bad. Misread the KenPom score.

- Chillin

[FerryFor50]

Whoever changed the thread title: booooo!

[Kedsy]

Good point. There has been talk about our big men for next year and we can now consider Jack playing at the power forward against some teams. So we expect to have at least 3 big men next year and if Robinson plays well a fourth.

I think your count may be off.

Duke big men, 2018-19:

Probable rotation players
------------------------
Marquis Bolden (probably)
Javin DeLaurier
Zion Williamson
EJ Montgomery (possibly)

Probably won't play all that much
--------------------------------
Antonio Vrankovic
Jack White
Justin Robinson


I don't know if he's the best rebounder off our bench, but he's definitely the toughest guy on the bench. I don't often see Marques and Javin going for rebounds in traffic quite like Jack. Javin's a great rebounder, but Jack just seems to have a nose for the ball. Alex has that quality somewhat as well (just kind of being in the right place when there is a loose ball), but he's clearly not at the same level physically as Jack.

Jack's big night definitely padded his rebounding stats, but he's still not our best rebounder off the bench. Not sure how to measure toughness.

2017-18 Rebounding stats for Duke forwards (including SF)
---------------------------------------------------------


Player DR% OR% rebs per 40
Wendell Carter 24.1 13.3 14.2
Marvin Bagley 23.0 14.1 14.1
Javin DeLaurier 19.2 16.3 13.3
Marquis Bolden 16.8 13.0 11.2
Jack White 19.9 8.8 11.0
Antonio Vrankovic 15.6 5.9 8.3
Gary Trent 10.3 3.7 5.4
Alex O'Connell 8.1 5.3 5.1
Justin Robinson 9.9 0.0 3.9



The thing I really like about White in that 6th man role is that he is versatile enough to be a super-sub. K can sub him in anywhere from the 2 to the 4, and can shift Allen or Bagley to the 1 or 5 if need be as well. Bobby Cremins used to love to do that at GT - he'd only play 6 guys but the 6th guy would play a good bit and give all five starters a break.

It is, of course, one game though. Very happy to see the kid play well, and hopefully he can build on that next game.

Jack was fabulous last night. But I'll be very surprised if he's now the 6th man. It's possible he has surpassed Jordan and Justin and become 9th man (for now, anyway).

[Tripping William]

Not sure how to measure toughness.



Isn't that where this guy comes in? :rolleyes:

8042

[kAzE]

Jack was fabulous last night. But I'll be very surprised if he's now the 6th man. It's possible he has surpassed Jordan and Justin and become 9th man (for now, anyway).

Agree with this, but depending on who comes back next year, I think he does have a decent chance to be the 7th or 8th guy on next year's team, especially if (and this is a pretty big if) he works on his jump shot and becomes a floor spacer. Glue guys who can space the floor are nice to have, especially when 2-3 of your starters (Zion, Tre Jones, and whoever the center is) are not good shooters.

I do think he's a good glue guy. He doesn't make mistakes as often as some of the other young players make on D. He's just not athletic enough to cover those mistakes when does make them.

[Kedsy]

I agree with this, but depending on who comes back next year, I think he does have a very good chance to be the 7th or 8th guy on next year's team, especially if he works on his jump shot and becomes a floor spacer. Glue guys who can space the floor are nice to have, especially when two of your starters (Zion and Tre Jones) are not good shooters.

Maybe 8th man. I assume AOC (who can also shoot) would still be ahead of him.

Though if Montgomery comes and nobody leaves unexpectedly, that would presumably push Jack to at best 9th man.

[Matches]

Jack was fabulous last night. But I'll be very surprised if he's now the 6th man. It's possible he has surpassed Jordan and Justin and become 9th man (for now, anyway).

I dunno. You're probably right, and it is just one game, but he played the 6th-most minutes last night even though everyone was available. Bolden and Javin don't look healthy to me yet. Presumably AOC will recover from the flu but I doubt he's 100% either. In a perfect world all three of those guys probably are ahead of White on the depth chart, but then again it's not a perfect world.

[tbyers11]

...Up to that point (Duval's 3ptr), I found the game to be extremely frustrating but kind of expected due to the tough loss 48 hours before. While the "4th quarter" washed a lot of that away, we looked really ragged and shaky up until that point.

I agree with this. The first 28 minutes were quite frustrating. Play well for a short spurt, play ragged for a short spurt. Sort of expected after short turnaround. There were some some bad largely unforced TOs, but most of my frustration game came from lack of patience on the offensive end. When you have 5 very gifted players in the starting lineup each one thinks they they can score or make a great pass (Duval several instances in the first half) every time they touch the ball. A lot of times we score on difficult shots because we have such talented players. I would love to see more ball movement and make the defense rotate if a really good shot isn't there early. Perils of a young team I guess.

That being said the last 12 minutes were great. It was against a depleted team with little left to give but all 40 minutes count.


I didn't notice us play zone once, we may have, but it was very little...which makes me ponder our defense as much as I ponder our bench.

I thought we played zone the entire last 8 minutes of the game

[CDu]

Agree with this, but depending on who comes back next year, I think he does have a decent chance to be the 7th or 8th guy on next year's team, especially if (and this is a pretty big if) he works on his jump shot and becomes a floor spacer. Glue guys who can space the floor are nice to have, especially when 2-3 of your starters (Zion, Tre Jones, and whoever the center is) are not good shooters.

I do think he's a good glue guy. He doesn't make mistakes as often as some of the other young players make on D. He's just not athletic enough to cover those mistakes when does make them.

I think White's chances for playing time next year hinge heavily on if Bolden or DeLaurier transfers or we don't get Montgomery. If none of the above, he's going to have to find his minutes on the perimeter. And that's where he's most limited (not a ballhandler, lacks the lateral quickness to defend guards/wings). He really reminds me of Olek Czyz - an undersized PF with loads of strength/toughness and good hops (Czyz maybe a bit more in that department, but both could jump) but limited skills with the ball in their hands.

I'd put the early money on O'Connell being the first (and perhaps only) guard off the bench, with some combo of Bolden/DeLaurier/Montgomery as the primary options off the bench in the frontcourt.

If we go into next year with just 3 bigs, it's possible that White slides into a small role as the 4th big. But I have trouble seeing him log rotation minutes on the wing over O'Connell. And that is, of course, assuming Trent and Duval go pro. Which is probably a safe assumption.

[CDu]

I agree with this. The first 28 minutes were quite frustrating. Play well for a short spurt, play ragged for a short spurt. Sort of expected after short turnaround. There were some some bad largely unforced TOs, but most of my frustration game came from lack of patience on the offensive end. When you have 5 very gifted players in the starting lineup each one thinks they they can score or make a great pass (Duval several instances in the first half) every time they touch the ball. A lot of times we score on difficult shots because we have such talented players. I would love to see more ball movement and make the defense rotate if a really good shot isn't there early. Perils of a young team I guess.

That being said the last 12 minutes was great. It was against a depleted team with little left to give but all 40 minutes count.

I thought we played zone the entire last 8 minutes of the game

Yeah, the first 28 minutes were frustrating from an offensive point of view. We were just very sloppy with the ball, and not always running good offense. The defense was solid up to that point. It went into dominance over the next 8 minutes, when we held them to just 4 points, before cooling off down the home stretch after we took out our bigs.

And yes, the last 8 minutes were in zone.

[Truth&Justise]

I think White's chances for playing time next year hinge heavily on if Bolden or DeLaurier transfers or we don't get Montgomery. If none of the above, he's going to have to find his minutes on the perimeter. And that's where he's most limited (not a ballhandler, lacks the lateral quickness to defend guards/wings). He really reminds me of Olek Czyz - an undersized PF with loads of strength/toughness and good hops (Czyz maybe a bit more in that department, but both could jump) but limited skills with the ball in their hands.

I'd put the early money on O'Connell being the first (and perhaps only) guard off the bench, with some combo of Bolden/DeLaurier/Montgomery as the primary options off the bench in the frontcourt.

If we go into next year with just 3 bigs, it's possible that White slides into a small role as the 4th big. But I have trouble seeing him log rotation minutes on the wing over O'Connell. And that is, of course, assuming Trent and Duval go pro. Which is probably a safe assumption.

A small tidbit if Duke lands Montgomery (and wow, what a recruiting haul if we do!), but it'll be fun seeing discussions like this when one remembers that Javin was known as Javin Montgomery-Delaurier (https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2016/4/10/11400934/javin-montgomery-delaurier-should-fit-duke-like-a-glove)in high school.

[kAzE]

If we go into next year with just 3 bigs, it's possible that White slides into a small role as the 4th big. But I have trouble seeing him log rotation minutes on the wing over O'Connell. And that is, of course, assuming Trent and Duval go pro. Which is probably a safe assumption.

Right, of course, any bench player's role is going to be heavily subject to the composition of the roster on hand, which at this point for Duke, sees heavy turnover every year. Best case scenario for him is that he's the 8th man in a 7.5 man rotation. If Gary Trent returns for another year, or we land Montgomery, those minutes are gone.

But injuries and unexpected roster turnover happens. Jack will more than likely have a shot to earn playing time. He's clearly ahead of Vrankovic and Goldwire at the moment.

[Billy Dat]

I thought we played zone the entire last 8 minutes of the game

And yes, the last 8 minutes were in zone.

Maybe I was so shocked by our sudden offensive explosion that I stopped watching the other end of the floor.

But, maybe we are seeing a pattern here. Duke will play man until they are vulnerable enough that the game may be in the balance before they shift to zone and throw the other team completely off their rhythm.

In terms of the ragged offense in the first 30 minutes, I do happen to like when Duval is being guarded by someone who lacks his quickness/speed and he attacks that match-up. I think that's the best use of his talent and something he should be encouraged to exploit as long as his head is up and he isn't barreling into walled-up big men.

[CDu]

But, maybe we are seeing a pattern here. Duke will play man until they are vulnerable enough that the game may be in the balance before they shift to zone and throw the other team completely off their rhythm.

I don't know. Against UVa, we switched to zone to start the second half (down double-digits) to change the dynamics and to allow our starters to stay on the floor for the entire second half. In this one, we didn't switch to zone until it was starting to be a blowout. Not sure there is much pattern there.

But the good news is that we appear to be playing adequate defense in either zone or man. Hopefully that continues.


In terms of the ragged offense in the first 30 minutes, I do happen to like when Duval is being guarded by someone who lacks his quickness/speed and he attacks that match-up. I think that's the best use of his talent and something he should be encouraged to exploit as long as his head is up and he isn't barreling into walled-up big men.

I do like Duval attacking a mismatch or a team lazy in getting back. But, the challenge has been that he doesn't seem to know when to rein it in and settle down. And sometimes when in-between decisions, he loses control of the ball (happened for a turnover against UVa in the first half, and has numerous times happened in other games where he was able to recover eventually).

Not exactly the same thing, but he also sometimes tries too hard to make the highlight pass. That definitely cost us late in the UVa game, and he did have a first-half turnover of this form in the ND game.

It's a tough balancing act for him. He has the skills and talent to change the game, but he's not a polished product yet. And the result is that he sometimes makes bad decisions and/or has bad execution. And on this team, with its highly effective weapons inside, it's frustrating to waste possessions unnecessarily.

[Billy Dat]

I don't know. Against UVa, we switched to zone to start the second half (down double-digits) to change the dynamics and to allow our starters to stay on the floor for the entire second half. In this one, we didn't switch to zone until it was starting to be a blowout. Not sure there is much pattern there.

I think my wink was too subtle...I don't really think K would have us play a defense he knows to be garbage just to throw a curveball and potentially stymie the other team at some crucial moment. But, then again, perhaps he learned something about deliberate deception from those cagey ex-US coaches during his FIBA years. ;^)

I wonder why he switched to the zone, there? Was it because he sensed we had a chance to put them away and went for the jugular? That is actually what I like about our switching back and forth...that we are unpredictable. I always liked how Pitino had all of those different defense schemes to keep teams off balance...kind of like how Mick had Rocky work on his right hand so that he could have him go southpaw when he really needed the goods.


It's a tough balancing act for him. He has the skills and talent to change the game, but he's not a polished product yet. And the result is that he sometimes makes bad decisions and/or has bad execution. And on this team, with its highly effective weapons inside, it's frustrating to waste possessions unnecessarily.

This is all true. A lot of our potential is pegged to how much of a polished product he can become.

By the way, I also like how Grayson has added the Kennard drive, plant, hard 360 pivot mid range shot. It astounds me that not one announcer has recognized Kennard's influence on that shot. It would be great if Grayson hit one and finger combed his hair as he jogged back down court.

[DukieInBrasil]

I think my wink was too subtle...I don't really think K would have us play a defense he knows to be garbage just to throw a curveball and potentially stymie the other team at some crucial moment. But, then again, perhaps he learned something about deliberate deception from those cagey ex-US coaches during his FIBA years. ;^)

I wonder why he switched to the zone, there? Was it because he sensed we had a chance to put them away and went for the jugular? That is actually what I like about our switching back and forth...that we are unpredictable. I always liked how Pitino had all of those different defense schemes to keep teams off balance...kind of like how Mick had Rocky work on his right hand so that he could have him go southpaw when he really needed the goods.
This is all true. A lot of our potential is pegged to how much of a polished product he can become.
By the way, I also like how Grayson has added the Kennard drive, plant, hard 360 pivot mid range shot. It astounds me that not one announcer has recognized Kennard's influence on that shot. It would be great if Grayson hit one and finger combed his hair as he jogged back down court.

I don't know when it happened but i think K dialed things back, when we started getting up bigly, to not show Brey up. K has immense respect for his former assistants and doesn't want to damage those relationships. Unfortunately for that plan, players couldn't miss there for a bit, but it was good for us fans. Did the switch to zone come before or after Mooney fouled out? If it was after then that was a good move b/c this iteration of ND doesn't have many 3pt shooters left after Mooney.
Brilliant bit about the hair...

[kAzE]

I think my wink was too subtle...I don't really think K would have us play a defense he knows to be garbage just to throw a curveball and potentially stymie the other team at some crucial moment. But, then again, perhaps he learned something about deliberate deception from those cagey ex-US coaches during his FIBA years. ;^)

I wonder why he switched to the zone, there? Was it because he sensed we had a chance to put them away and went for the jugular? That is actually what I like about our switching back and forth...that we are unpredictable. I always liked how Pitino had all of those different defense schemes to keep teams off balance...kind of like how Mick had Rocky work on his right hand so that he could have him go southpaw when he really needed the goods.


I really think we still play M2M in the hope that we continue to improve it. You can't improve at M2M without real game reps (and more game film to study). If it just turns out that we're better as a zone team a month from now, I can't see us continuing this song and dance when it's life or death. My guess is that Coach K would like to have both defenses up his sleeve to switch it up now and then to keep opponents off balance. Maybe he's afraid some team will "figure out" our zone (it's very possible). It's always nice to have options.

[Skydog]

KenPom has us at 50 right now. And I think (not sure) our adjusted defense is below 90 for this one too (and for the last 6-7 games).

Things are looking up defensively fo sho.

We are ranked 51st in defense which is a nice move up ranking wise. But we are still giving up 97.5 pts/100 poss on average, which is not good. Against ND we allowed 96pts/100, although to be fair the number is little inflated by ND's late run when we took out our starters. Nevertheless our defense still has a long way to go. I would love to see us get that number down to the low 90's.

In fact I think this team only needs to do two things to have a good chance for a championship. One is continue to improve on defense, which is a big thing requiring a lot of work. But the second could be fixed quickly - take care of the damn ball. Don't make low percentage passes, concentrate on the connection. Against VA we dug our self into a hole right off the bat with several sloppy and often telegraphed passes. Those unforced turnovers were extremely costly - we not only lose very important possessions (especially important in a low possession game) but the turnovers energized our opponent as well. If not for those preventable mistakes we probably win that game.

So it worries me that the sloppy passing continues and we saw it against ND as well. This could be a great team. But even with our awesome offense we still can't afford to be giving possessions away, especially since we still have problems preventing those possessions becoming points for our opponent.

[uh_no]

We are ranked 51st in defense which is a nice move up ranking wise. But we are still giving up 97.5 pts/100 poss on average, which is not good. Living up to my handle, actually, it's phenomenal given the quality of offenses we've faced. I'll do the math for everyone so we can stop this line of thought that are defense has been anything less than great the past couple weeks:



team
un-adj offense v duke
intrinsic offense
game adjusted offense v duke


ND
66/69
113.5
82


UVA
63/65
113.3
84


WFU
70/72
110.2
87


Pitt
54/65
98.3
85


Miami
75/79
111.1
84



Hmmm...so if we average that, it looks like the past 5 games, duke has done an 84.4, which by my checking, is good for #3 in the country. There is no world in which the defense we have played the past couple weeks is "not good." It's been downright spectacular. It would be the #1 defense in the country every year but this one...since 2009.

(For those curious, the equation is opponent adj-o + duke adj-d - national average = game expectation, or when algebra-ed game expectation + national average - opponent adj-o = duke adj d. National average is aimed to be ~100 in KP, though tends to drift upwards (though insignificantly as far as we're concerned...i think to around 102-103).

[tbyers11]

I don't know when it happened but i think K dialed things back, when we started getting up bigly, to not show Brey up. K has immense respect for his former assistants and doesn't want to damage those relationships. Unfortunately for that plan, players couldn't miss there for a bit, but it was good for us fans. Did the switch to zone come before or after Mooney fouled out? If it was after then that was a good move b/c this iteration of ND doesn't have many 3pt shooters left after Mooney.
Brilliant bit about the hair...

K switched to zone after ND called timeout at 8:09 left in the second half while were up 74-56. I don't think K was calling off the dogs yet. I think he was shortening the number of possessions to limit any chance that ND had to come back. In zone, typically you are going to spend more time to get a shot than in m2m. You can't just run a PnR immediately after crossing halfcourt. You "should" have to pass the ball 3-4 times to get a good shot.

K was also telling Grayson to basically just stand there for the first 10 seconds after crossing halfcourt on offense at this point.

[Troublemaker]

Living up to my handle, actually, it's phenomenal given the quality of offenses we've faced. I'll do the math for everyone so we can stop this line of thought that are defense has been anything less than great the past couple weeks:



team
un-adj offense v duke
intrinsic offense
game adjusted offense v duke


ND
66/69
113.5
82


UVA
63/65
113.3
84


WFU
70/72
110.2
87


Pitt
54/65
98.3
85


Miami
75/79
111.1
84



Hmmm...so if we average that, it looks like the past 5 games, duke has done an 84.4, which by my checking, is good for #3 in the country. There is no world in which the defense we have played the past couple weeks is "not good." It's been downright spectacular. It would be the #1 defense in the country every year but this one...since 2009.

(For those curious, the equation is opponent adj-o + duke adj-d - national average = game expectation, or when algebra-ed game expectation + national average - opponent adj-o = duke adj d. National average is aimed to be ~100 in KP, though tends to drift upwards (though insignificantly as far as we're concerned...i think to around 102-103).

Is using "game expectation" a flaw, though? (Unless I'm not understanding what "game expectation" is). Obviously when the D was ranked in the 100+ range, it was easier to outperform the game expectation.

Eye-test wise, I would say we've been playing "good" defense but not "great" yet.

[uh_no]

Is using "game expectation" a flaw, though? (Unless I'm not understanding what "game expectation" is). Obviously when the D was ranked in the 100+ range, it was easier to outperform the game expectation.

Eye-test wise, I would say we've been playing "good" defense but not "great" yet.

sorry, it's not "game expectation" in the second equation, but really "measured output," but the fact is that it's a conversion between adjusted and adjusted values, whether predicted or measured.

I would agree eye test that there is still areas that we can improve....which is even more promising that we have been playing so well despite the fact that we are still learning.

[MChambers]

Living up to my handle, actually, it's phenomenal given the quality of offenses we've faced. I'll do the math for everyone so we can stop this line of thought that are defense has been anything less than great the past couple weeks:



team
un-adj offense v duke
intrinsic offense
game adjusted offense v duke


ND
66/69
113.5
82


UVA
63/65
113.3
84


WFU
70/72
110.2
87


Pitt
54/65
98.3
85


Miami
75/79
111.1
84



Hmmm...so if we average that, it looks like the past 5 games, duke has done an 84.4, which by my checking, is good for #3 in the country. There is no world in which the defense we have played the past couple weeks is "not good." It's been downright spectacular. It would be the #1 defense in the country every year but this one...since 2009.

(For those curious, the equation is opponent adj-o + duke adj-d - national average = game expectation, or when algebra-ed game expectation + national average - opponent adj-o = duke adj d. National average is aimed to be ~100 in KP, though tends to drift upwards (though insignificantly as far as we're concerned...i think to around 102-103).

But much of ND’s offensive efficiency is based on games where they had Colson, Farrell, and Harvey. The team they sent out last night isn’t an offensive juggernaut.

[CDu]

Is using "game expectation" a flaw, though? (Unless I'm not understanding what "game expectation" is). Obviously when the D was ranked in the 100+ range, it was easier to outperform the game expectation.

Eye-test wise, I would say we've been playing "good" defense but not "great" yet.

There is another way to calculate this which excludes our defensive prior altogether:

(Observed performance) / (opponents’ adjusted offensive efficiency) = adjusted defensive efficiency.

By that measure, we have put up an 84.2, 85.5, 88.2, 84.5, and 85.5 over those five games.

So, yeah, our defense has put up pretty great results over the past 3 weeks.

Now, it should be noted that one Wake game was without their #2 scorer, the ND game was without its two best players, and Pitt is awful. But those numbers are pretty terrific.

[brevity]

Whoever changed the thread title: booooo!

Also, Notre Dame scored 66 points. Not sure if the original thread title was also wrong.

[Devilwin]

Great game. Glad to see Grayson have a nice game, and the emergence of Jack White. Duval had a nice game, and Trent continues to kill it from three. Just a great win, even though ND was short handed.

[907bluedevils]

Good game by the devils, can't get too excited as stated before that this team was heavily depleted. I hope to see this effort when tougher competition comes along in the 2nd half of February.

[Skydog]

There is another way to calculate this which excludes our defensive prior altogether:

(Observed performance) / (opponents’ adjusted offensive efficiency) = adjusted defensive efficiency.

By that measure, we have put up an 84.2, 85.5, 88.2, 84.5, and 85.5 over those five games.

So, yeah, our defense has put up pretty great results over the past 3 weeks.

Now, it should be noted that one Wake game was without their #2 scorer, the ND game was without its two best players, and Pitt is awful. But those numbers are pretty terrific.

To make sure I'm getting this - is observed performance = pts/100 scored by opponent? If so then the observed performance for this game would be 100*66/69= 95.65. ND's OE =113.5 so our adj defense rating for the game would be 95.65/113.5=.842 which I guess becomes adjDE = 84.2 pts/100?

So bottom line adjDE is just the simple proportion: [what our opponent would score in 100 possessions against an average team] divided by [what they actually scored against us, prorated up to 100 possessions]. Correct?

[Skydog]

Living up to my handle, actually, it's phenomenal given the quality of offenses we've faced. I'll do the math for everyone so we can stop this line of thought that are defense has been anything less than great the past couple weeks:



team
un-adj offense v duke
intrinsic offense
game adjusted offense v duke


ND
66/69
113.5
82


UVA
63/65
113.3
84


WFU
70/72
110.2
87


Pitt
54/65
98.3
85


Miami
75/79
111.1
84



Hmmm...so if we average that, it looks like the past 5 games, duke has done an 84.4, which by my checking, is good for #3 in the country. There is no world in which the defense we have played the past couple weeks is "not good." It's been downright spectacular. It would be the #1 defense in the country every year but this one...since 2009.

(For those curious, the equation is opponent adj-o + duke adj-d - national average = game expectation, or when algebra-ed game expectation + national average - opponent adj-o = duke adj d. National average is aimed to be ~100 in KP, though tends to drift upwards (though insignificantly as far as we're concerned...i think to around 102-103).

My bad. I was just looking at the 96pts/100 and thinking "not good" without thinking through how big the adjustment for opponent was. So you are correct - statistically speaking at least our defense has been excellent lately.

[FerryFor50]

Also, Notre Dame scored 66 points. Not sure if the original thread title was also wrong.

Pretty sure I had it at 66, but whatever. :p

[Nugget]

We are ranked 51st in defense which is a nice move up ranking wise. But we are still giving up 97.5 pts/100 poss on average, which is not good. Against ND we allowed 96pts/100, although to be fair the number is little inflated by ND's late run when we took out our starters. Nevertheless our defense still has a long way to go. I would love to see us get that number down to the low 90's.

In fact I think this team only needs to do two things to have a good chance for a championship. One is continue to improve on defense, which is a big thing requiring a lot of work. But the second could be fixed quickly - take care of the damn ball. Don't make low percentage passes, concentrate on the connection. Against VA we dug our self into a hole right off the bat with several sloppy and often telegraphed passes. Those unforced turnovers were extremely costly - we not only lose very important possessions (especially important in a low possession game) but the turnovers energized our opponent as well. If not for those preventable mistakes we probably win that game.

So it worries me that the sloppy passing continues and we saw it against ND as well. This could be a great team. But even with our awesome offense we still can't afford to be giving possessions away, especially since we still have problems preventing those possessions becoming points for our opponent.

I recall seeing a statistic several years ago that said essentially every team to have won the national title in the Ken Pom-era had been in the Top 25 in both Offensive and Defensive efficiency. I don't recall exactly how reliable that stat was and in particular whether it was subject to criticism because it included tournament results -- e.g., teams like our 2015 team which wouldn't I don't think have been in the Top 25 defenses before the tournament but was as of the end of the season.

I agree with you anecdotally that it seemed in the Virginia and Notre Dame games there were an inordinate number of unforced TOs. But, at least on a whole-season basis, it doesn't look like this team is turning it over all that much.

Per Ken Pom, our current T.O. rate is 16.7% (#49 in the country, and we are playing at a faster pace than in some prior years). This compares to other Duke teams of note:

2017: T.O. Rate 16.3% (#41)
2015: T.O. Rate 16.3% (#35)
2013: T.O. Rate 15.6% (#4) -- not sure these are necessarily related, but that team never went to the offensive glass, with an OR Rate of 29% (#270) vs. our 41% (#1) this year
2011: T.O. Rate 17.3# (#30) -- probably skewed up a little due to not having Kyrie for much of the year
2010: T.O. Rate 16.4% (#15) -- that team had very unusual for Duke splits, ranking as #1 in offensive efficiency while only #92 in Eff. FG% and #158 in FT rate, through great OR (#6) and the low TOs.

So, it's not clear to me that we have very much room to improve on offensive T.O. Rate -- maybe 1/2 of 1%? Would be less than 1 TO per game better.

From looking at the Ken Pom defensive splits, the things that jumped out to me were that we have basically stopped forcing turnovers -- our defensive T.O. rate is 16.9% (#281) vs. other years:

2017: Def. T.O. Rate 17.3% (#253)
2015: Def. T.O. Rate 18.6% (#205)
2013: Def. T.O. Rate 20.4% (#146)
2011: Def. T.O. Rate 20.9% (#116)
2010: Def. T.O. Rate 21.2% (#112)

Our Eff. FG% defense isn't terrible, 46.9% (#32) vs. other years:

2017: Def. Eff. FG% 47.4% (#41)
2015: Def. Eff. FG% 46.5% (#70)
2013: Def. Eff. FG% 45.5% (#51)
2011: Def. Eff. FG% 44.5% (#11)
2010: Def. Eff. FG% 43.6% (#7) [I know, News-flash -- our 2010 team was pretty good!].

We're only #161 in defensive rebounding rate, so we will need to either force more turnovers or do a better job on the defensive glass out of the zone.

[CDu]

To make sure I'm getting this - is observed performance = pts/100 scored by opponent? If so then the observed performance for this game would be 100*66/69= 95.65. ND's OE =113.5 so our adj defense rating for the game would be 95.65/113.5=.842 which I guess becomes adjDE = 84.2 pts/100?

So bottom line adjDE is just the simple proportion: [what our opponent would score in 100 possessions against an average team] divided by [what they actually scored against us, prorated up to 100 possessions]. Correct?

The opposite: what they actually did divided by the opponen’s adjusted efficiency (which is essentially what they would score against an average team) times 100.

And yes to the first paragraph.

[Skydog]

The opposite: what they actually did divided by the opponen’s adjusted efficiency (which is essentially what they would score against an average team) times 100.

And yes to the first paragraph.

Oops. I need to learn to prufreed mi postss.

[Kedsy]

I recall seeing a statistic several years ago that said essentially every team to have won the national title in the Ken Pom-era had been in the Top 25 in both Offensive and Defensive efficiency. I don't recall exactly how reliable that stat was and in particular whether it was subject to criticism because it included tournament results -- e.g., teams like our 2015 team which wouldn't I don't think have been in the Top 25 defenses before the tournament but was as of the end of the season.

For the bzillionth time, this is a myth!

You are correct that to talk sensibly about this you have to look at pre-tournament data. I have 9 seasons worth of pre-T data (published data, using whatever formula KenPom used at the time), and in those nine seasons, only five of the nine champions were in Pomeroy's top 25 in both offense and defense going into the Tournament.

In those same nine seasons, there were 76 teams that were in Pomeroy's top 25 in both offense and defense going into the NCAAT. Of those:

8 (10.5%) got knocked out in the round of 64;
16 (21.1%) got knocked out in the round of 32;
21 (27.6%) got knocked out in the round of 16;
14 (18.4%) got knocked out in the round of 8;
17 (22.4%) made the Final Four (of those, 9 lost their Final Four game; 3 lost in the championship; and 5 won the championship).


For comparison's sake, in those same nine seasons, there were 72 teams with #1 or #2 seeds. Of those, seven won championships, and:

4 (5.6%) got knocked out in the round of 64;
15 (20.1%) got knocked out in the round of 32;
13 (18.1%) got knocked out in the round of 16;
21 (29.2%) got knocked out in the round of 8;
19 (26.4%) made the Final Four (of those, 7 lost their Final Four game; 5 lost in the championship; and 7 won the championship).

Of course, a lot of those #1 and #2 seeds were also ranked in Pomeroy's top 25 of both offense and defense, so there is a fair amount of overlap here. But I (once again) conclude that being in the top 25 for both does NOT give you any advantage over getting a top 2 seed and not being ranked in the top 25 for both.


We're only #161 in defensive rebounding rate, so we will need to either force more turnovers or do a better job on the defensive glass out of the zone.

It's worth noting that (a) our defensive turnover rate is Duke's our lowest (worst) in at least the past 30 years; and (b) our defensive rebounding rate (while perhaps not spectacular compared to other teams' rates) is Duke's highest (best) in at least the past 30 years.

[sagegrouse]

Oops. I need to learn to prufreed mi postss.

Well, noone is perfcet.

[flyingdutchdevil]

...but any one jump up and down in excitement when Allen took the shots that he took? In ACC play, it's fair to say Allen has been struggling with shot selection, making his shot, and finding a balance between shooting and distributing. I thought his play against ND was pure vintage Allen: take a shot if open and, if not, pass it on. He was aggressive, he didn't overthink, and he looked confident.

In order for this team to go far, this team needs that Allen. Stop pump-faking when you're open. Stop trying to find the open man on fast breaks. Stop taking poor shots when we're down. He didn't do any of those against ND (in fairness, Duke was never down).

If Allen can continue this play moving forward, we'll be in a great position.

[DukieInBrasil]

...but any one jump up and down in excitement when Allen took the shots that he took? In ACC play, it's fair to say Allen has been struggling with shot selection, making his shot, and finding a balance between shooting and distributing. I thought his play against ND was pure vintage Allen: take a shot if open and, if not, pass it on. He was aggressive, he didn't overthink, and he looked confident.

In order for this team to go far, this team needs that Allen. Stop pump-faking when you're open. Stop trying to find the open man on fast breaks. Stop taking poor shots when we're down. He didn't do any of those against ND (in fairness, Duke was never down).

If Allen can continue this play moving forward, we'll be in a great position.

That NBA distance 3 that he nailed dribbling around a high screen was beautiful, and may be the type of shot that, watching it go in, boosts his confidence. We're coming up on some very important, big-stage games, and we're gonna need "good" Grayson.

[kAzE]

That NBA distance 3 that he nailed dribbling around a high screen was beautiful, and may be the type of shot that, watching it go in, boosts his confidence. We're coming up on some very important, big-stage games, and we're gonna need "good" Grayson.

I fully expect him to go H.A.M. in both UNC games. He seems to always play well against the Holes.

[Lar77]

...but any one jump up and down in excitement when Allen took the shots that he took? In ACC play, it's fair to say Allen has been struggling with shot selection, making his shot, and finding a balance between shooting and distributing. I thought his play against ND was pure vintage Allen: take a shot if open and, if not, pass it on. He was aggressive, he didn't overthink, and he looked confident.

In order for this team to go far, this team needs that Allen. Stop pump-faking when you're open. Stop trying to find the open man on fast breaks. Stop taking poor shots when we're down. He didn't do any of those against ND (in fairness, Duke was never down).

If Allen can continue this play moving forward, we'll be in a great position.

Grayson is best when aggressive even if he doesn't shoot. His best play of the game was the drive that he dumped to Carter for a slam. I have like his pull up 2 and floater on drives, which he had gone away from until Monday

[Nugget]

For the bzillionth time, this is a myth!

Thanks for busting me on this! Sorry to be propagating BS.

[Kedsy]

Thanks for busting me on this! Sorry to be propagating BS.

No worries. I wasn't busting you. It's just that that particular myth never seems to die.

[Skydog]

For the bzillionth time, this is a myth!

You are correct that to talk sensibly about this you have to look at pre-tournament data. I have 9 seasons worth of pre-T data (published data, using whatever formula KenPom used at the time), and in those nine seasons, only five of the nine champions were in Pomeroy's top 25 in both offense and defense going into the Tournament.

In those same nine seasons, there were 76 teams that were in Pomeroy's top 25 in both offense and defense going into the NCAAT. Of those:

8 (10.5%) got knocked out in the round of 64;
16 (21.1%) got knocked out in the round of 32;
21 (27.6%) got knocked out in the round of 16;
14 (18.4%) got knocked out in the round of 8;
17 (22.4%) made the Final Four (of those, 9 lost their Final Four game; 3 lost in the championship; and 5 won the championship).


For comparison's sake, in those same nine seasons, there were 72 teams with #1 or #2 seeds. Of those, seven won championships, and:

4 (5.6%) got knocked out in the round of 64;
15 (20.1%) got knocked out in the round of 32;
13 (18.1%) got knocked out in the round of 16;
21 (29.2%) got knocked out in the round of 8;
19 (26.4%) made the Final Four (of those, 7 lost their Final Four game; 5 lost in the championship; and 7 won the championship).

Of course, a lot of those #1 and #2 seeds were also ranked in Pomeroy's top 25 of both offense and defense, so there is a fair amount of overlap here. But I (once again) conclude that being in the top 25 for both does NOT give you any advantage over getting a top 2 seed and not being ranked in the top 25 for both.



It's worth noting that (a) our defensive turnover rate is Duke's our lowest (worst) in at least the past 30 years; and (b) our defensive rebounding rate (while perhaps not spectacular compared to other teams' rates) is Duke's highest (best) in at least the past 30 years.

Thanks for the well researched info!

One question - I'm a bit perplexed by your last statement that our 172nd ranked (out of 351 teams) DRR of 28.6% is our best in 30 years? If so that is amazing. I know rebounding hasn't traditionally been our best asset but if what you say is true then our DRR has been in or very close to the bottom half of all DI teams in the nation for 30 years straight??? Again, if true that is an amazing stat.

[CDu]

Thanks for the well researched info!

One question - I'm a bit perplexed by your last statement that our 172nd ranked (out of 351 teams) DRR of 28.6% is our best in 30 years? If so that is amazing. I know rebounding hasn't traditionally been our best asset but if what you say is true then our DRR has been in or very close to the bottom half of all DI teams in the nation for 30 years straight??? Again, if true that is an amazing stat.

The point about the absolute percentage is correct, but it is not true for our relative ranking. We are at 28.6% offensive rebound rate allowed, which is our best percentage in as far back as I can tell. But relative to the rest of the country, we were better in 2015 and about the same in 2013 and 2010 (though allowing higher %s).

But, yeah, we've been below average to awful in defensive rebounding for most of the past decade at least. Part of that seems to have been a focus on defending the 3, which by nature spreads a defense out and makes rebounding harder. This year, we've been more forgiving of 3pt attempts, but our defensive rebounding is better.

[Nugget]

Thanks for the well researched info!

One question - I'm a bit perplexed by your last statement that our 172nd ranked (out of 351 teams) DRR of 28.6% is our best in 30 years? If so that is amazing. I know rebounding hasn't traditionally been our best asset but if what you say is true then our DRR has been in or very close to the bottom half of all DI teams in the nation for 30 years straight??? Again, if true that is an amazing stat.

According to Ken Pom (which I see going back to 2002), our current DRR rate of 28.6% would be the best rate in any year since 2002. The next best were 29.3% in 2007 (thought that ranked #66 vs. our current ranking of #162 -- so, in general teams were going to the offensive glass more that year than this) and 29.8% (ranked #122) in 2010.

What really jumped out to me was how shockingly bad the 2004-2006 teams which had Shelden Williams, Shavlick Randolph and either Luol Deng or Josh McRoberts (and Nick Horvath!) were on the defensive glass -- they went DRR of 35.4% in 2004 (#279), 34.7% in 2005 (#257) and 36.8% in 2006 (#311). Those teams were still forcing turnovers at a higher rate than we are now (on over 20% of possessions), but it still seems like the offensive rebounding given up was worse than it ought to have been.

Was Shelden's reputation as "The Landlord" perhaps somewhat overblown? In hindsight, it doesn't look like he was extracting as much rent for use of the paint as we thought at the time.

[Nugget]

Part of that seems to have been a focus on defending the 3, which by nature spreads a defense out and makes rebounding harder. This year, we've been more forgiving of 3pt attempts, but our defensive rebounding is better.

Excellent point. I hadn't thought about that enough -- the tradeoff isn't just overplay passing lanes/go for TOs vs. lay back for defensive rebounds, but also extend/close out harder on 3s vs. stay in the paint.

Ken Pom does track both 3pt FG% defense and the percent of defensive field goals that are 3 pointers, so one could go back to see historically how we did on those measures in the years we were giving up more ORs.

[MrPoon]

...but any one jump up and down in excitement when Allen took the shots that he took? In ACC play, it's fair to say Allen has been struggling with shot selection, making his shot, and finding a balance between shooting and distributing. I thought his play against ND was pure vintage Allen: take a shot if open and, if not, pass it on. He was aggressive, he didn't overthink, and he looked confident.

In order for this team to go far, this team needs that Allen. Stop pump-faking when you're open. Stop trying to find the open man on fast breaks. Stop taking poor shots when we're down. He didn't do any of those against ND (in fairness, Duke was never down).

If Allen can continue this play moving forward, we'll be in a great position.

I was giggling like my youngest daughter. I almost would have taken a loss just to start seeing the old GA again. The dunk, the long three, the drive to the FT line jumper, one hand floater through contact. That is his game and it’s been sorely missing. If Trent keeps shooting even a little bit like he has and Carter keeps punishing teams for hitting (just because the refs dont’ call it, it can still be a foul) Bagley. GA makes this a championship quality team.

Also, tip of the hat to ND. Their D for about 2/3 of the game was really good and really disciplined. They sat on GA’s right and Bagley’s left despite all their efforts. Really impressive coaching. Took a couple stretches to break it open but Brey knew he wasn’t going to win the game. Made it close through good coaching and excecution.

[DukieInKansas]

Congratulations to all of the scholar- athletes.

[Ian]

For the bzillionth time, this is a myth!

You are correct that to talk sensibly about this you have to look at pre-tournament data. I have 9 seasons worth of pre-T data (published data, using whatever formula KenPom used at the time), and in those nine seasons, only five of the nine champions were in Pomeroy's top 25 in both offense and defense going into the Tournament.

In those same nine seasons, there were 76 teams that were in Pomeroy's top 25 in both offense and defense going into the NCAAT. Of those:

8 (10.5%) got knocked out in the round of 64;
16 (21.1%) got knocked out in the round of 32;
21 (27.6%) got knocked out in the round of 16;
14 (18.4%) got knocked out in the round of 8;
17 (22.4%) made the Final Four (of those, 9 lost their Final Four game; 3 lost in the championship; and 5 won the championship).


For comparison's sake, in those same nine seasons, there were 72 teams with #1 or #2 seeds. Of those, seven won championships, and:

4 (5.6%) got knocked out in the round of 64;
15 (20.1%) got knocked out in the round of 32;
13 (18.1%) got knocked out in the round of 16;
21 (29.2%) got knocked out in the round of 8;
19 (26.4%) made the Final Four (of those, 7 lost their Final Four game; 5 lost in the championship; and 7 won the championship).

Of course, a lot of those #1 and #2 seeds were also ranked in Pomeroy's top 25 of both offense and defense, so there is a fair amount of overlap here. But I (once again) conclude that being in the top 25 for both does NOT give you any advantage over getting a top 2 seed and not being ranked in the top 25 for both.



It's worth noting that (a) our defensive turnover rate is Duke's our lowest (worst) in at least the past 30 years; and (b) our defensive rebounding rate (while perhaps not spectacular compared to other teams' rates) is Duke's highest (best) in at least the past 30 years.

What about teams that were top 25 in both but weren't a 1 or 2 vs the teams that were 1 or 2 but not in the top 25 in both. Or in other words, if you can't be both, which is better to be?

[Kedsy]

The point about the absolute percentage is correct, but it is not true for our relative ranking. We are at 28.6% offensive rebound rate allowed, which is our best percentage in as far back as I can tell. But relative to the rest of the country, we were better in 2015 and about the same in 2013 and 2010 (though allowing higher %s).

But, yeah, we've been below average to awful in defensive rebounding for most of the past decade at least. Part of that seems to have been a focus on defending the 3, which by nature spreads a defense out and makes rebounding harder. This year, we've been more forgiving of 3pt attempts, but our defensive rebounding is better.


According to Ken Pom (which I see going back to 2002), our current DRR rate of 28.6% would be the best rate in any year since 2002. The next best were 29.3% in 2007 (thought that ranked #66 vs. our current ranking of #162 -- so, in general teams were going to the offensive glass more that year than this) and 29.8% (ranked #122) in 2010.

What really jumped out to me was how shockingly bad the 2004-2006 teams which had Shelden Williams, Shavlick Randolph and either Luol Deng or Josh McRoberts (and Nick Horvath!) were on the defensive glass -- they went DRR of 35.4% in 2004 (#279), 34.7% in 2005 (#257) and 36.8% in 2006 (#311). Those teams were still forcing turnovers at a higher rate than we are now (on over 20% of possessions), but it still seems like the offensive rebounding given up was worse than it ought to have been.

It's not just the past 10 years. We were actually much worse before that. Until 2007, (with the exception of 1989) we gave up OR rates of 35% to 40% every season since they invented the stat.


Was Shelden's reputation as "The Landlord" perhaps somewhat overblown? In hindsight, it doesn't look like he was extracting as much rent for use of the paint as we thought at the time.

When you block so many shots, it's usually hard to get defensive rebounds.

[CDu]

It's not just the past 10 years. We were actually much worse before that. Until 2007, (with the exception of 1989) we gave up OR rates of 35% to 40% every season since they invented the stat.



When you block so many shots, it's usually hard to get defensive rebounds.

Williams was actually the rare case of a player good at both. He just didn’t get much help.

[Kedsy]

What about teams that were top 25 in both but weren't a 1 or 2 vs the teams that were 1 or 2 but not in the top 25 in both. Or in other words, if you can't be both, which is better to be?

Top 25 in both AND #1/#2 seed (45 teams):
-----------------------------------------
5 champs (11.1%)
3 finalists (6.7%)
5 final four (11.1% -- total Final Four participants: 13 (28.9%))
12 elite eight (26.7% -- total Elite Eight participants: 25 (55.6%))
11 sweet 16 (24.4%)
8 round of 32 (17.8%)
1 round of 64 (2.2%)
Average number of wins: 2.9

Top 25 in both and #3 or worse seed (31 teams):
-----------------------------------------------
0 champs (0%)
0 finalists (0%)
4 final four (12.9%)
2 elite eight (6.5%)
10 sweet 16 (32.3%)
8 round of 32 (25.8%)
7 round of 64 (22.6%)
Average number of wins: 1.6

#1/#2 seed and NOT Top 25 in both (27 teams):
----------------------------------------------
2 champs (7.4%)
2 finalists (7.4%)
2 final four (7.4% -- total Final Four participants: 6 (22.2%))
9 elite eight (33.3% -- total Elite Eight participants: 15 (55.6%))
2 sweet 16 (7.4%)
7 round of 32 (25.9%)
3 round of 64 (11.1%)
Average number of wins: 2.5

So, if you had to choose, you'd rather be a #1/#2 seed than top 25 in both KenPom oRank and dRank. By a LOT.

You'd rather be both, but only by a little bit. In fact, #1/#2 AND double-top-25 and #1/#2 and NOT double-top-25 reach the Elite Eight at the exact same rate.

[luvdahops]

According to Ken Pom (which I see going back to 2002), our current DRR rate of 28.6% would be the best rate in any year since 2002. The next best were 29.3% in 2007 (thought that ranked #66 vs. our current ranking of #162 -- so, in general teams were going to the offensive glass more that year than this) and 29.8% (ranked #122) in 2010.

What really jumped out to me was how shockingly bad the 2004-2006 teams which had Shelden Williams, Shavlick Randolph and either Luol Deng or Josh McRoberts (and Nick Horvath!) were on the defensive glass -- they went DRR of 35.4% in 2004 (#279), 34.7% in 2005 (#257) and 36.8% in 2006 (#311). Those teams were still forcing turnovers at a higher rate than we are now (on over 20% of possessions), but it still seems like the offensive rebounding given up was worse than it ought to have been.

Was Shelden's reputation as "The Landlord" perhaps somewhat overblown? In hindsight, it doesn't look like he was extracting as much rent for use of the paint as we thought at the time.

We also generally played with 3 true guards, 6-4 or shorter, on the perimeter in those years. Of those, only DeMarcus Nelson was an above average - or perhaps even average - rebounder for a wing player. And as noted, our perimeter generally prioritized extending ball pressure and forcing turnovers in those years. For which the trade-off is often vulnerability on the boards if one of our perimeter players is beaten or loses his man, and a big has to slide over to help.

[jimsumner]

We also generally played with 3 true guards, 6-4 or shorter, on the perimeter in those years. Of those, only DeMarcus Nelson was an above average - or perhaps even average - rebounder for a wing player. And as noted, our perimeter generally prioritized extending ball pressure and forcing turnovers in those years. For which the trade-off is often vulnerability on the boards if one of our perimeter players is beaten or loses his man, and a big has to slide over to help.

Let's look at 2005, Shelden Williams' junior season.

Michael Thompson transferred at mid-season of the 2003-'04 season. Duke did not replace him with a spring recruit.

Luol Deng surprised Duke by going pro after the 2004 season. Duke did not replace him with a spring recruit.

Shavlik Randolph missed and/or was weakened by mono much of the 2005 season.

Duke tried Reggie Love, a 6-4 former football player, at power forward. He broke a foot.

So, Duke spent much of the 2005 season starting Lee Melchionni at the 4. All 6-6, 205 pounds of him. David McClure also got some minutes there.

Duke started Williams, Deng, Redick, Ewing and Duhon in 2004, Williams, McRoberts, Redick, Dockery and Paulus in 2006.

So, yes, blaming Williams for not grabbing more than 12 rebounds per game does seem a bit harsh.