MBB: Duke vs UVA (Sat 1/27, 2:00pm ET, CBS) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Troublemaker]

Let's get this ball rolling.

IMO, the very first topic has to be this: Duke this season obviously wants to get the ball into Bagley and Carter in the post. However, UVA likes to double-team every post entry (big to big) and force turnovers from big men who make mistakes passing out of UVA's double-team.

Who wins this battle? I think it'll be UVA. And then the question for Duke offensively becomes: where do we go from here once UVA has taken away our Plan A?

[Troublemaker]

A note about UVA's defense.

Their current defensive efficiency (kenpom) (https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE) of 81.5 is, by far, the best in the kenpom era. Seriously. Just use my link and click back through the years, and you'll see that nobody comes close to 81.5. It's a sick number, as the kids would say.

If UVA continues at this rate, it would have a good argument to be the greatest defensive team ever.

[dukelifer]

A note about UVA's defense.

Their current defensive efficiency (kenpom) (https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE) of 81.5 is, by far, the best in the kenpom era. Seriously. Just use my link and click back through the years, and you'll see that nobody comes close to 81.5. It's a sick number, as the kids would say.

If UVA continues at this rate, it would have a good argument to be the greatest defensive team ever.

What makes them so great? They have big guards - is that the key? I am really amazed how consistent they are on D year after year.

[DarkstarWahoo]

What makes them so great? They have big guards - is that the key? I am really amazed how consistent they are on D year after year.

Isaiah Wilkins leveled up this year. He doesn't have the height that Akil Mitchell or Darion Atkins had, but I don't think UVA has ever had a big that understands the defense as well as he does. I do wonder how he can keep up his energy and effort levels all year long.

Elsewhere inside, Diakite is springy as hell and learning quickly, and Jack Salt is still a brick wall and has improved his shot-blocking. DeAndre Hunter's emergence has helped, and I think he'll be UVA's best defender by the time he's done. He's a weapon Tony can deploy against anyone at the 1-4 in a way he hasn't had since Brogdon left.

On the perimeter, as you said, the guards/wings are all pretty long except for Guy (who, despite being physically limited compared to the others, has really improved his defense this year) and Nigel Johnson (who is the weak link in the rotation at both ends but is still a good, quick on-ball defender when he's not freelancing). I think this is Tony's most versatile defensive team.

[Hingeknocker]

What makes them so great? They have big guards - is that the key? I am really amazed how consistent they are on D year after year.

Snarky answer: They have earned a reputation as a "tough defensive team" which allows them to foul as often as they want without the refs calling it.

Not-as-snarky answer: Their chosen style of play is designed to frustrate opponents on both ends of the floor. They're a pain to play against (and watch) in many ways, not just on defense. This adds to the effectiveness of their defensive scheme, which admittedly does work very well.

[Troublemaker]

IMO, the very first topic has to be this: Duke this season obviously wants to get the ball into Bagley and Carter in the post. However, UVA likes to double-team every post entry (big to big) and force turnovers from big men who make mistakes passing out of UVA's double-team.

Who wins this battle? I think it'll be UVA. And then the question for Duke offensively becomes: where do we go from here once UVA has taken away our Plan A?

Other possibilities besides UVA decisively winning this battle and Duke having to abandon getting the ball into the post:

Bagley and Carter learn fast. They cough up turnovers the first few possessions, but as the game progresses and they see the double-team every trip down the floor, they start to find the open man. How much of a head start are we giving UVA, though? What's their lead in the game once our bigs start to figure out the double team?
Bagley and Carter are such good passers that they beat the double-team from the start of the game. Nah, this won't happen. You can't simulate UVA's defense in practice, and there will be an adjustment period for all the freshmen going against the Pack Line.

[gocanes0506]

The guards will need to be better than MGIII and WC in this game.

I expect whoever is guarding Duval at the 3 point line to give him at least 5 feet of cushion. That way as soon as we feed it inside that defender rushes down to provide a high-low double team. Basically UVA should play a matchup zone with a rover. We could also see the outside defender closest to MBIII or WC dive down and Duval’s defender rotate over on Trent or Allen. UVA will try to prevent any drives or inside game. If K tries to counter with O’Connell, I’d expect denial of Allen the ball and big pressure on OC and GT when they try to bring up the ball.

The key will be hitting long range jumpers to open up the D. Also spread the defense and try to drive. Understanding that they will have help come over and a quick pass will be required. The team will feed right into UVA if they take highly contested / forced inside shots and miss a bunch of outside shots.

Rebounding is big. UVA is bad on offense and giving up offensive rebounds to them only aids they chances. Also nothing hurts defense more than having to play it for another 30 seconds. Offensive rebounds for Duke will go a long way.

On D the freshmen are going to have to understand that the struggles on the offensive side cannot affect their defensive play. I believe that is where UVA pulls away from teams. Teams get so frustrated that they can’t get anything going offensively and they begin to make dumb plays on defense. UVA gets easy baskets or to the FT line in the end. It could be a 40s game for both teams if both commit to solid defense as UVA lacks scoring power. Either team could get into the 60s or 70s if Duke (Duval) makes the open 3s or Duke gives UVA easy baskets/FTs because they are frustrated.

Duval has to come up huge in the game if the team is to have a chance. Also MBIII and WC can’t get out rebounded in this game.

[flyingdutchdevil]

A note about UVA's defense.

Their current defensive efficiency (kenpom) (https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE) of 81.5 is, by far, the best in the kenpom era. Seriously. Just use my link and click back through the years, and you'll see that nobody comes close to 81.5. It's a sick number, as the kids would say.

If UVA continues at this rate, it would have a good argument to be the greatest defensive team ever.

To add to the absurdity, UVA ranks #1 in D with a defensive efficiency of 81.5. The #2 team? Cincinnati, with a 85.6!!!!!

Tony Bennett better get ACC Coach of the Year and, hopefully, NCAA Coach of the Year.

I'd rather have elite offense (from a viewer perspective), but I'm so jealous of this defense.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Isaiah Wilkins leveled up this year. He doesn't have the height that Akil Mitchell or Darion Atkins had, but I don't think UVA has ever had a big that understands the defense as well as he does. I do wonder how he can keep up his energy and effort levels all year long.

Elsewhere inside, Diakite is springy as hell and learning quickly, and Jack Salt is still a brick wall and has improved his shot-blocking. DeAndre Hunter's emergence has helped, and I think he'll be UVA's best defender by the time he's done. He's a weapon Tony can deploy against anyone at the 1-4 in a way he hasn't had since Brogdon left.

On the perimeter, as you said, the guards/wings are all pretty long except for Guy (who, despite being physically limited compared to the others, has really improved his defense this year) and Nigel Johnson (who is the weak link in the rotation at both ends but is still a good, quick on-ball defender when he's not freelancing). I think this is Tony's most versatile defensive team.

What does UVA want for Isaiah Wilkins? Can we trade you a top #10 player in the 2019 recruiting class for Wilkins this year? Are you willing to take that trade?

[Spanarkel]

Snarky answer: They have earned a reputation as a "tough defensive team" which allows them to foul as often as they want without the refs calling it.

Not-as-snarky answer: Their chosen style of play is designed to frustrate opponents on both ends of the floor. They're a pain to play against (and watch) in many ways, not just on defense. This adds to the effectiveness of their defensive scheme, which admittedly does work very well.

UVa gets called for the second(tied) fewest fouls per game in D1 hoops at 13.9/game.
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/286/p1

[CDu]

UVa gets called for the second(tied) fewest fouls per game in D1 hoops at 13.9/game.
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/286/p1

Part of that is pace of play. They play the slowest pace in D1. They are 17th in defensive FT rate, which is still really good. Conversely, they don’t draw fouls either, at #330 in offensive FT rate.

[PackMan97]

Is there a video or article that can explain why the Pack Line defense that Virginia uses is so good? ...and since it's so effective, why don't more teams play it?

[Troublemaker]

Alright, my last post on UVA's double-teams before moving onto other aspects of the game. (But, as I said, I think this is an appropriate topic to start with considering how Duke would like to play.)

In the 2015 game, Jahlil had 5 of Duke's 8 turnovers, only 3 assists, and only 10 points (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400587955). UVA's double-team shut him down good, and even though he played 35 minutes, we mostly stopped going into him because of the high turnover rate. (Late in the game, he did find Quinn for a crucial three when a UVA defender made a mistake.) Duke needs to be prepared for the possibility that Bagley and Carter will be shut down in this game and have other plans of attack.

[Channing]

I actually think we are well situated to attack UVA (to the extent anyone is). Both of our bigs are great and willing passers. Both bigs have shown the ability to score when 5-8 feet away from the basket rather than just at the rim.

Unfortunately I'm not sure this game sets up great for TD unless he get really get out in transition. I can see UVA frustrating him on drives. Of course, if TD can get out and make 3-4 great plays early and build his confidence he has the speed to athleticism to get the offense really cranking. The key, in my mind, is going to be to not let one bad play spiral into a second/third/fourth bad play. I could see a lot of Grayson at the point for the steady hand with a dose of Gary and AOC on the perimeter for shooting.

[Troublemaker]

Is there a video or article that can explain why the Pack Line defense that Virginia uses is so good? ...and since it's so effective, why don't more teams play it?

It was invented by Dick Bennett, Tony's father. It's a secret family recipe that the two of them continue to refine to this day.

There are other people who try to play the Pack Line who have had some success but ultimately don't achieve the same results. Arizona is #76 on defense. Xavier is #63 on defense. For example. You can buy a knockoff Gucci bag and hope that no one will notice, but eventually everyone will know.

[Hoos Crazy]

To add to the absurdity, UVA ranks #1 in D with a defensive efficiency of 81.5. The #2 team? Cincinnati, with a 85.6!!!!!

Tony Bennett better get ACC Coach of the Year and, hopefully, NCAA Coach of the Year.

I'd rather have elite offense (from a viewer perspective), but I'm so jealous of this defense.

Take it a step further - the #3 defense in KenPom is Purdue with a defensive efficiency of 88.5. The gap between UVA and Purdue (7.0) is the same as the gap between Purdue and #34.

[flyingdutchdevil]

...is the last time UVA has won in Cameron. Let's keep this date alive, Duke!!!!

[camion]

I expect this to be an ugly game. First, that's the type of ball UVa plays. Second, it will be the first time for our freshmen to see this defense and it will likely frustrate them for a while. The big question is whether that "while" is the entire game. How fast will the frosh be able to adjust and how patient can they be?

Here's hoping.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I expect this to be an ugly game. First, that's the type of ball UVa plays. Second, it will be the first time for our freshmen to see this defense and it will likely frustrate them for a while. The big question is whether that "while" is the entire game. How fast will the frosh be able to adjust and how patient can they be?

Here's hoping.

While I agree, the whole college basketball world has circled this game. This game is being hyped up. UVa may play ugly ball, but they are a top 3 team in the country.

Duke will absolutely not take this game for granted. They will be ready. It's that big of a game.

[Kfanarmy]

To add to the absurdity, UVA ranks #1 in D with a defensive efficiency of 81.5. The #2 team? Cincinnati, with a 85.6!!!!!

Tony Bennett better get ACC Coach of the Year and, hopefully, NCAA Coach of the Year.

I'd rather have elite offense (from a viewer perspective), but I'm so jealous of this defense.

Maybe we should wait and see where the rest of the year plays out.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Maybe we should wait and see where the rest of the year plays out.

Doesn't matter if UVA or Duke wins out, UVA has surpassed all ACC preseason expectations. It's tough to see him not winning this award.

[CDu]

First, I'll caveat that the Wahoos on the board can certainly add/edit this, but I figured I'd give the scouting report a go anyway.

UVa is what UVa seems to always be in the Tony Bennett era: a fierce defensive team and sneakily efficient offensive team. The names on the jerseys change, but the story stays mostly the same. They will play slow, they will play physically without getting called for fouls (sort of like we used to do), and they will grind out possessions on both ends of the floor. This year's version of the pack line defense has, perhaps surprisingly, been their best to date. As Troublemaker said, they are the best defensive team in the Pomeroy era. They force turnovers, limit fouls, and force contested shots. About the only thing they don't do at an elite level is defensive rebound. But everything else is spectacular.

On offense, they will run on live-ball turnovers, but otherwise will work for their best shot. They don't rebound on the offensive end as is usual of their style, as they prefer to protect the other end with extra bodies. They are very good at protecting the basketball, and are also a terrific 3pt shooting team. Offensively, they are more good than great, but that's just fine because their defense is more than great.

Center: Jack Salt (6'10", 250lb redshirt junior from New Zealand) is the starter at center. Salt is a rugged interior role player for the Cavs. He doesn't have much/any offensive polish, and he isn't flashy defensively either. But he knows his role and just bangs inside. Salt plays about 20 mpg, and is backed up nominally by Mamadi Diakite (6'9", 225lb redshirt sophomore from Guinea). Diakite is lanky and athletic, and with a bit more offensive polish than Salt. But he's far less strong, and tends to really play more PF than C. Isiah Wilkins (6'7", 225lb senior) will usually take the tougher assignment when Salt sits. In cases of emergency, Jay Huff (7'1", 230lb redshirt freshman) can play spot minutes. Though they try to avoid this if at all possible.

Forwards: Wilkins is the starter, and is the glue that ties the defense together. He is an elite defender, and one of the rare players who generates both blocks and steals well but also plays great positional defense (i.e., he doesn't sell out for blocks and steals). I can't say enough good things about his defensive skills. He is capable defensively guarding 1 to 5, and will take the toughest interior defensive assignment and almost always will win it. I expect him to give Bagley a real headache in this one. Wilkins also rebounds well on both ends (again, a phenomenal trait to be able to block shots, get steals, and get defensive rebounds while also playing good positional defense) and hits his free throws at 76%. When Wilkins sits, De'Andre Hunter (6'7", 220lb redshirt freshman) fills in. Hunter is a really dynamic athlete with guard skills to go along with his solid frame and athleticism. He's also a talented and versatile defender, though not as sound as Wilkins (again, few are). Hunter also provides scoring punch, energy, and aggressiveness. He's going to be a really good one for UVa, and his recent showings suggest sooner rather than later.

Wings: Kyle Guy (6'2", 175lb sophomore) and Devon Hall (6'5", 210lb redshirt senior) are the starters, and both deserve all-ACC consideration. Guy is electric and flashy, with terrific leaping ability and shooting touch from anywhere on the floor. He is smallish, but doesn't let that stop him from being a dynamite scorer. Hall is less explosive, but much stronger and an elite shooter. If Wilkins is the defensive glue, these two along with PG Ty Jerome (6'5", 200lb sophomore) are the catalysts for UVa's offense. They each will probe the defense with their dribble and look for openings. If none are there, they'll swing it back to one of the other three and reset. And all are terrific catch-and-shoot threats. Hall is also a terrific passer. Hunter will play on the wings too, splitting his time between the 3 and a stretch 4 spot.

Guards: Jerome is the starting PG, and is a long and skilled player. Jerome doesn't have a ton of athleticism, but can really shoot and plays really well within the system. Like Guy and Hall, Jerome is also quite comfortable playing off ball as a catch-and-shoot guy. The three of them are nearly seamless in their handling of the offense. Behind Jerome is Nigel Johnson (6'1", 180lb grad transfer from Rutgers most recently), a quick and pesky guard who focuses more on defense than offense as he is less skilled than his 3 guard teammates.

When we are on offense, it will be really interesting to see how our bigs match up against their pack line. UVa typically doubles the post, which is usually REALLY effective. But with our height/length advantage and the passing skill of our bigs, it will be interesting to see if we can pass over the double team in the paint for baskets. Again, easier said than done, but that's one of the few ways to beat the pack line. The other is to hit 3s, which is historically how we've beaten UVa. But that's not a strength of this Duke team. Or, at least, it has not seemed to be a strength. We've certainly had a few good shooting nights. It'd be nice if Allen and Trent and O'Connell are hitting from deep.

On the other end, UVa isn't an explosively athletic team. That in theory bodes well for our man-to-man defense. But they will be patient and will look to exploit weaknesses late in the clock, which is not great for us. They also shoot the 3 really well, which has been a problem for us.

It should be a really interesting game. Their defense is uber-elite. Our offense is uber-elite. Their offense is decent but not great. Our defense has been very good recently but for the season is pretty mediocre. Will be a really interesting test, and in theory is our toughest remaining game on the ACC schedule.

[Hoos Crazy]

...is the last time UVA has won in Cameron. Let's keep this date alive, Duke!!!!

Oddly enough, the game before UVA beat Duke in 1995, was a 61-37 UVA home win over #18 Clemson.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Oddly enough, the game before UVA beat Duke in 1995, was a 61-37 UVA home win over #18 Clemson.

You stop it.

[Billy Dat]

Let's hope the axiom that great offense beats great defense holds true. I also like our chances when we play a "system" team because they rely on a system and we don't.

As for their offense, it is a top 40 offense which is good.

It kind of feels like they owe us some payback, our record against them has been really good since Handsome Tony took over but many of those wins, especially the ones at home (the Grayson non-called-travel, the Rasheed miracle bounce, wasn't there also a game when their game winner hung on the rim and then rolled off?), were extremely near losses.

Still, this is a big challenge for us, definitely a game where the focus of the nation will be on which of the two, maybe both, are legit Final Four/Title contenders.

[sammy3469]

Alright, my last post on UVA's double-teams before moving onto other aspects of the game. (But, as I said, I think this is an appropriate topic to start with considering how Duke would like to play.)

In the 2015 game, Jahlil had 5 of Duke's 8 turnovers, only 3 assists, and only 10 points (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400587955). UVA's double-team shut him down good, and even though he played 35 minutes, we mostly stopped going into him because of the high turnover rate. (Late in the game, he did find Quinn for a crucial three when a UVA defender made a mistake.) Duke needs to be prepared for the possibility that Bagley and Carter will be shut down in this game and have other plans of attack.

This may sound simplistic, but Bagley, Carter, and Javin need to continually move and then offensive rebound. When you give Virginia free defensive rebounds, the defense simply suffocates you. The teams ('Cuse, UNC, WVA, VCU) that have managed to get 25% or more of their misses have managed to give UVa problems. Almost everyone else (besides BC) gets blown out.

I'm sure you'll bring this up later, but you also can't foul them on defense. If you can offensive rebound and keep them from the line you have a good shot.

[DukieInBrasil]

Forwards: Wilkins is the starter, and is the glue that ties the defense together. He is an elite defender, and one of the rare players who generates both blocks and steals well but also plays great positional defense (i.e., he doesn't sell out for blocks and steals). I can't say enough good things about his defensive skills. He is capable defensively guarding 1 to 5, and will take the toughest interior defensive assignment and almost always will win it. I expect him to give Bagley a real headache in this one. Wilkins also rebounds well on both ends (again, a phenomenal trait to be able to block shots, get steals, and get defensive rebounds while also playing good positional defense) and hits his free throws at 76%. When Wilkins sits, De'Andre Hunter (6'7", 220lb redshirt freshman) fills in. Hunter is a really dynamic athlete with guard skills to go along with his solid frame and athleticism. He's also a talented and versatile defender, though not as sound as Wilkins (again, few are). Hunter also provides scoring punch, energy, and aggressiveness. He's going to be a really good one for UVa, and his recent showings suggest sooner rather than later.


Being successful vs UVA is almost like achieving nirvana: the team must abandon the ego, both individually and collectively. I highlighted Bagley b/c when he does this, he is a very good passer and the offense flows really well. Sometimes he gets bullheaded and really wants to finish plays thru lots of contact, perhaps looking for fouls to get called, when perhaps the better play would be to pass. Sometimes he takes unwise 3pt shots, including at least 1 yesterday (although at least one of the others was a decent shot that just didn't go in). Duke's offense suffers some when Bagley doesn't recognize bad shots, but most of the time he's taking good shots.
This was a problem for Trevon yesterday too, when he took 2 horrible 3s, and kept insisting on driving and shooting even though the shots wouldn't drop (although, many of those shots were ones that are normally in his repertoire). Will Trevon be able to finish at the rim (or even get to it) if the D guards against the pass? Will he be able to find open guys if the D helps out to defend the rim?
Will Duke's offense be able to achieve a zen-like level of egolessness? Will Duke's defense be able to stay focused for the full 30 seconds each time down the court AND rebound defensively? Those are the keys to this game, imo.

[Ian]

It was invented by Dick Bennett, Tony's father. It's a secret family recipe that the two of them continue to refine to this day.

There are other people who try to play the Pack Line who have had some success but ultimately don't achieve the same results. Arizona is #76 on defense. Xavier is #63 on defense. For example. You can buy a knockoff Gucci bag and hope that no one will notice, but eventually everyone will know.

The part they are missing is that it's not just the defense, it's the offense as well. You can't play the pack-line d well unless you're also committed to the slow paced deliberate offense, which is designed to grind down the opposition's psyche.

[devilseven]

The part they are missing is that it's not just the defense, it's the offense as well. You can't play the pack-line d well unless you're also committed to the slow paced deliberate offense, which is designed to grind down the opposition's psyche.
I think that Duke should relentlessly full court press.


Their one loss was to West Virginia(Press Virginia) at home. I think we should full court press instead of letting them walk the ball up court and be comfortable in their offense. In other words, turn the tables on them. That's what West Virginia did.

[Troublemaker]

Offensively, every Duke opponent tries to beat us with on-ball screens (pick-n-roll), but UVA will be the rare exception. While they will run some on-ball screens against us, they mostly will have their big guys set off-ball screens to free up Guy, Hall, and Jerome for outside shots or curls into the lane for layups, floaters or a midrange jumper. They call this "blocker mover" offense, and it's very similar to our floppy set.

Historically, UVA's choice to keep running their stuff has been good for us since as a program, we've tended to defend off-ball screens better than on-ball screens. This year? It's hard to say. Our opponents have so consistently just chosen to run pick-and-roll against us over and over again that I have no feel for how well we chase shooters around off-ball screens this season. We also graduated a great off-ball defender in Matt Jones, someone who over the past few seasons we would slap on the opposing team's best shooter and feel good that Matt will make him inefficient. Without Matt around, who will get the first shot at guarding Kyle Guy? Probably Grayson, who's having a very good defensive year. Hopefully he'll be able to chase Guy around screens successfully without spending so much energy that Grayson's offense suffers, as we're going to need Grayson to make shots on the other end.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think that Duke should relentlessly full court


Their one loss was to West Virginia(Press Virginia) at home. I think we should full court press instead of letting them walk the ball up court and be comfortable in their offense. In other words, turn the tables on them. That's what West Virginia did.

West Virginia has the 8th best defense in the country. West Virginia is physical and disciplined. Not sure we can mimic their strategy.

I'd rather us play our own game. And feature AOC if the pack-line becomes very "pack-line".

[Lunchab1es]

You stop it.

The last time Duke was ranked #4 and played #2 Virginia, Tyus Jones landed the knock-out 3.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The last time Duke was ranked #4 and played #2 Virginia, Tyus Jones landed the knock-out 3.

That's more like it!

[slower]

Snarky answer: They have earned a reputation as a "tough defensive team" which allows them to foul as often as they want without the refs calling it.

This.

The mirror to "Duke gets all the calls" is "Virginia gets no calls (called against them)."

Ugly, ugly basketball.

Should be an interesting test of immovable object (pack line) vs. irresistible force (Bagley).

[jhmoss1812]

First, I'll caveat that the Wahoos on the board can certainly add/edit this, but I figured I'd give the scouting report a go anyway.

UVa is what UVa seems to always be in the Tony Bennett era: a fierce defensive team and sneakily efficient offensive team. The names on the jerseys change, but the story stays mostly the same. They will play slow, they will play physically without getting called for fouls (sort of like we used to do), and they will grind out possessions on both ends of the floor. This year's version of the pack line defense has, perhaps surprisingly, been their best to date. As Troublemaker said, they are the best defensive team in the Pomeroy era. They force turnovers, limit fouls, and force contested shots. About the only thing they don't do at an elite level is defensive rebound. But everything else is spectacular.

On offense, they will run on live-ball turnovers, but otherwise will work for their best shot. They don't rebound on the offensive end as is usual of their style, as they prefer to protect the other end with extra bodies. They are very good at protecting the basketball, and are also a terrific 3pt shooting team. Offensively, they are more good than great, but that's just fine because their defense is more than great.

Center: Jack Salt (6'10", 250lb redshirt junior from New Zealand) is the starter at center. Salt is a rugged interior role player for the Cavs. He doesn't have much/any offensive polish, and he isn't flashy defensively either. But he knows his role and just bangs inside. Salt plays about 20 mpg, and is backed up nominally by Mamadi Diakite (6'9", 225lb redshirt sophomore from Guinea). Diakite is lanky and athletic, and with a bit more offensive polish than Salt. But he's far less strong, and tends to really play more PF than C. Isiah Wilkins (6'7", 225lb senior) will usually take the tougher assignment when Salt sits. In cases of emergency, Jay Huff (7'1", 230lb redshirt freshman) can play spot minutes. Though they try to avoid this if at all possible.

Forwards: Wilkins is the starter, and is the glue that ties the defense together. He is an elite defender, and one of the rare players who generates both blocks and steals well but also plays great positional defense (i.e., he doesn't sell out for blocks and steals). I can't say enough good things about his defensive skills. He is capable defensively guarding 1 to 5, and will take the toughest interior defensive assignment and almost always will win it. I expect him to give Bagley a real headache in this one. Wilkins also rebounds well on both ends (again, a phenomenal trait to be able to block shots, get steals, and get defensive rebounds while also playing good positional defense) and hits his free throws at 76%. When Wilkins sits, De'Andre Hunter (6'7", 220lb redshirt freshman) fills in. Hunter is a really dynamic athlete with guard skills to go along with his solid frame and athleticism. He's also a talented and versatile defender, though not as sound as Wilkins (again, few are). Hunter also provides scoring punch, energy, and aggressiveness. He's going to be a really good one for UVa, and his recent showings suggest sooner rather than later.

Wings: Kyle Guy (6'2", 175lb sophomore) and Devon Hall (6'5", 210lb redshirt senior) are the starters, and both deserve all-ACC consideration. Guy is electric and flashy, with terrific leaping ability and shooting touch from anywhere on the floor. He is smallish, but doesn't let that stop him from being a dynamite scorer. Hall is less explosive, but much stronger and an elite shooter. If Wilkins is the defensive glue, these two along with PG Ty Jerome (6'5", 200lb sophomore) are the catalysts for UVa's offense. They each will probe the defense with their dribble and look for openings. If none are there, they'll swing it back to one of the other three and reset. And all are terrific catch-and-shoot threats. Hall is also a terrific passer. Hunter will play on the wings too, splitting his time between the 3 and a stretch 4 spot.

Guards: Jerome is the starting PG, and is a long and skilled player. Jerome doesn't have a ton of athleticism, but can really shoot and plays really well within the system. Like Guy and Hall, Jerome is also quite comfortable playing off ball as a catch-and-shoot guy. The three of them are nearly seamless in their handling of the offense. Behind Jerome is Nigel Johnson (6'1", 180lb grad transfer from Rutgers most recently), a quick and pesky guard who focuses more on defense than offense as he is less skilled than his 3 guard teammates.

When we are on offense, it will be really interesting to see how our bigs match up against their pack line. UVa typically doubles the post, which is usually REALLY effective. But with our height/length advantage and the passing skill of our bigs, it will be interesting to see if we can pass over the double team in the paint for baskets. Again, easier said than done, but that's one of the few ways to beat the pack line. The other is to hit 3s, which is historically how we've beaten UVa. But that's not a strength of this Duke team. Or, at least, it has not seemed to be a strength. We've certainly had a few good shooting nights. It'd be nice if Allen and Trent and O'Connell are hitting from deep.

On the other end, UVa isn't an explosively athletic team. That in theory bodes well for our man-to-man defense. But they will be patient and will look to exploit weaknesses late in the clock, which is not great for us. They also shoot the 3 really well, which has been a problem for us.

It should be a really interesting game. Their defense is uber-elite. Our offense is uber-elite. Their offense is decent but not great. Our defense has been very good recently but for the season is pretty mediocre. Will be a really interesting test, and in theory is our toughest remaining game on the ACC schedule.

Excellent scouting report per usual. I think you have a better understanding of our roster and philosophy than the majority of our fanbase. The thing that worries me the most in this game is giving up offensive rebounds. We are not great this year in that category and Duke is exceptional (40% of their misses). I also worry a little bit about our poise on the road. We need a quick start. Playing from behind will most likely be insurmountable. Win or lose, I'm excited for this game. I'm not very optimistic about leaving Cameron with a win though. I think Duke wins 69-63.

[jimsumner]

Oddly enough, the game before UVA beat Duke in 1995, was a 61-37 UVA home win over #18 Clemson.

I'll be more worried if Pete Gaudet shows up on the Duke sideline.

This thread reminds me of Ulysses Grant, who supposedly said he was more worried about what he could do to the other guy than what the other guy could do to him.

We seem more focused on what Virginia can do to Duke than what Duke can do to Virginia.

Sure, Wilkins could really bother Bagley. Then again, how often has Wilkins faced a Bagley-level talent?

Virginia can do some things to hurt Duke. But Duke can do a lot of things to hurt Virginia.

[Wahoo2000]

First, I'll caveat that the Wahoos on the board can certainly add/edit this, but I figured I'd give the scouting report a go anyway.

Sadly, I must spread some more love around, so I can't spork you, but that was as solid/accurate of a scouting report I've seen from an opposing fan. Kudos.

Only a couple of people have mentioned the BIGGEST key to the game upthread, so I'll emphasize it here. This game will likely be won for Duke by second chance points. Now, if we start with the assumption that neither team will play significantly better/worse than their season averages in shooting/defense/etc, by FAR the biggest advantage either team has in any specific matchup is Duke's 40.8% #1 OR rate vs our relatively pedestrian 27.4% def OR rate. We honestly have played some teams that are NOT elite rebounding teams and they've really punished us with ORs for 2nd chance points. Like many others, I expect Carter and Bagley to put up huge numbers, though I don't think much of it will come from set offense down low, but on stickbacks.

Offensively, if K is smart (and I know he is), he'll be emphasizing quick ball movement in practice all week. DO NOT let the ball stick in one spot, don't spend time dribbling in one area. Pass the ball, force the defense to shift as quickly and as many times as possible. The more movements we have to make the better the chance is that someone makes a mistake or misses a rotation and someone gets an open look. There will be plenty of times when that doesn't happen though, and the Duke players must be mentally prepared to not be frustrated when not manufacturing "good" shots, and be ready to spread the floor for a 1-on-1 scenario, likely against Jerome or Guy. Last, even when we force Duke into a tough/bad shot, the defensive possession isn't over until we can secure the ball. Unfortunately, I think this is where it falls apart for UVa as I think Bagley and Carter will have their way on the glass. Getting those second chance points will also have the unfortunate side effect of eliminating the frustration for Duke in being unable to score, and INCREASE our frustration in not being able to complete solid defensive possessions. There's a chance that things could get out of hand if we struggle to maintain our focus and confidence through that frustration.

On defense, I'll say Brownell did something VERY interesting yesterday and it almost worked. Clemson was switching practically EVERY screen for our guards, and denying the passes to the wings that initiate our offense. This at times created massive mismatches in the post (size wise), but our bigs are pretty limited offensive-skill-wise, and we didn't even attempt to ISO them in those spots. It nearly ground our offense to a total halt about halfway through the first half, and I hope it's a strategy Tony has an answer for, because we looked totally unprepared for it. Anyway, if Duke chooses to not employ any "gimmick" like that, I'd expect to see a good mix of zone (which should be pretty effective as long as you find the shooters - our starting PG and wings are all shooting over 40% from 3 (Jerome 42% with a TON of super-deep looks, Guy 43%, Hall 47%). If you extend too far though, look for DeAndre Hunter to man the middle/FT area. Hunter seems like a Jarron Blossomgame clone with maybe better touch/IQ, basically a higher upside. I don't ever recall a player besides Perrantes looking this good this early in his career. He's kind of come out of nowhere after an up and down nonconference schedule to be MAYBE our best overall player if you look at the combination of offensive AND defensive skill (though that probably still goes to Devon Hall). When you play man, the Duke players will have to REALLY work at staying on the hip of the wings/guards coming off screens looking to get free for 3s. We have no problem running you off those hard downscreens by Salt and Wilkins three, four, five, even six times in one possession. If you don't work hard to stay with our guy EVERY SINGLE TIME, you'll give a great shooter an open look at 3. When we're forced into an ISO situation, the perimeter players will typically take turns (or go with the hot hand) in a mix of ISO and ballscreen sets - almost always run from the top of the key. Last, don't let Wilkins' or Diakite's man overhelp on screens as they're both solid pick and roll/pop players.

Last - one thing most people outside of the Virginia fanbase haven't recognized: Hall is just about as good of a defender as Wilkins. Pretty much EVERY game he takes the opponent's top perimeter player, and shuts him down almost completely. If Wilkins is the frontrunner for ACC DPOY, I actually think his stiffest competition will come from Devon Hall. Hall has also shown a surprising amount of offensive improvement this year (wish his usage was higher as his efficiency is off the charts). He had always been pretty good at getting into the paint, but a terrible finisher. This season, he's become VERY good at finishing inside with both hands, often over bigger competition. He's also improved his 3pt shooting to 47%, which is outstanding. Last, if you put him at the line? 93% leads the league (I think). If it comes to late game situations, Jerome is also excellent (hasn't missed a FT all year on 15 attempts), and Guy is 89%.

Bottom line - I think Duke just hammers us on the glass and takes home a relatively/surprisingly easy 10-12 point win.

[jhmoss1812]

I'll be more worried if Pete Gaudet shows up on the Duke sideline.

This thread reminds me of Ulysses Grant, who supposedly said he was more worried about what he could do to the other guy than what the other guy could do to him.

We seem more focused on what Virginia can do to Duke than what Duke can do to Virginia.

Sure, Wilkins could really bother Bagley. Then again, how often has Wilkins faced a Bagley-level talent?

Virginia can do some things to hurt Duke. But Duke can do a lot of things to hurt Virginia.

For sure. Duke is favored for a reason. But no one is talking about UVA's offense vs. Duke's D which I think is the biggest factor in this game besides Duke's offensive rebounding. Can UVA get open looks and knock them down? Can Duke maintain focus and energy on D for the majority of the shot clock? Can UVA turn Duval over and get some easy points in transition? It's very unlikely that we keep Duke's offense down for 40 minutes. But can UVA's offense maintain pace against Duke's D? Those are the key questions to me.

[MChambers]

It was invented by Dick Bennett, Tony's father. It's a secret family recipe that the two of them continue to refine to this day.

There are other people who try to play the Pack Line who have had some success but ultimately don't achieve the same results. Arizona is #76 on defense. Xavier is #63 on defense. For example. You can buy a knockoff Gucci bag and hope that no one will notice, but eventually everyone will know.

Someone linked a video or two in the Nerds Bearing GIFs thread.

It apparently is not easy to learn, so you really a bunch of veterans in your program to play it.

[MChambers]

I think that Duke should relentlessly full court press.


Their one loss was to West Virginia(Press Virginia) at home. I think we should full court press instead of letting them walk the ball up court and be comfortable in their offense. In other words, turn the tables on them. That's what West Virginia did.
Or at least press to use up clock, so that UVa doesn't have a full 30 to run its (boring) offense.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Recent quote from Bilas on Virginia's defense:


Look, I can quote statistics to you to help you grasp just how difficult it is to score on Virginia, but it won't resonate. I can help you with the principles of the Pack Line defense, but it's not about X's and O's. Virginia's defense is a feeling. It is a deep, dark depression. It is a Rubik's Cube that you have to solve in the dark. It is a dentist's office with an interminable wait and no magazines or Wi-Fi. It is a rhythm-killing, vexation-filled, irritating festival of frustration. Playing against Virginia is no fun.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22197099/jay-bilas-best-things-seen-volume-2

Also, he talks a lot about Duke. Here is a snip-it on Duke's offense:


The Blue Devils are beyond talented on the offensive end. With Marvin Bagley III, Wendell Carter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Trevon Duval and Grayson Allen, Duke has five legit NBA players in the starting lineup. Duke is averaging 92 PPG, shooting over 51 percent from the field and leading the ACC with better than 19 assists per game. Duke makes almost nine 3-point field goals per game. It is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing 41 percent of its misses. You aren't going to beat Duke with a game scoring in the 50s or 60s, unless you are Virginia.

[ncexnyc]

People love their stats on this board and sometimes forget that the game is won or lost on the court.

I watched the UVA game on Sunday night and the combo of Moore and Saar caused UVA some problems. They were lucky to come away with that win, as the Wake combo missed some really easy close-in shots.

Carter and MBIII are waaaaaaaaay more talented than the Wake combo and they will put up some really big numbers on Saturday.

[cato]

...is the last time UVA has won in Cameron. Let's keep this date alive, Duke!!!!

Ugh. Just one of the horrible string of memories from that season. Cory Alexander leading a ridiculous come back and UVA winning in OT.

The most frustrating thing about that year was how close Duke was to winning so many of those games, only to let them slip away at the end.

[dukelifer]

People love their stats on this board and sometimes forget that the game is won or lost on the court.

I watched the UVA game on Sunday night and the combo of Moore and Saar caused UVA some problems. They were lucky to come away with that win, as the Wake combo missed some really easy close-in shots.

Carter and MBIII are waaaaaaaaay more talented than the Wake combo and they will put up some really big numbers on Saturday.

It will be a interesting game. Duke has a ton of weapons. The key is not to get frustrated. I hate to pick on Duval but UVa may give him HUGE fits. He cannot get turnover prone by trying to force things. Turnovers leading to breaks is my biggest concern. UVa will bait him into making passes that he cannot make. This is a tough game all around. Duke NEEDS to be strong with the ball to have a chance.

[W&LHoo]

Or at least press to use up clock, so that UVa doesn't have a full 30 to run its (boring) offense.

I think this would be a mistake. West Virginia has years of running their "press virginia" defense and they still only beat the Hoos by single digits in Morgantown. UVA can break down a less-well-executed press quickly and the VERY LAST thing you want to do is make things easier on the offensive end as that's our weakness.

As has been said by a couple of my fellow Hoos here, and in the excellent breakdown by CDu, your big advantage is likely to be Duke getting offensive rebounds. We've fallen off on that front this year, and I think it's the result of having more guards toward the outside of the defense looking for turnovers. The result of that is that your bigs don't have to actually beat the post trap by scoring, they can just get inside and gather offensive rebounds and either score if we're (unusually) out of position, or kick it back out for another perimeter shot.

[jimsumner]

It's definitely a battle of contrasts in two respects.

Duke has more talent than Virginia. But Virginia has more experience than Duke.

Duke has an elite offense but a pedestrian defense. Virginia has an elite defense but a pedestrian offense.

So, which team will best leverage its advantages, while best minimizing its disadvantages?

Some thoughts on Virginia's defense. Bennett knows what he wants to do like he knows the back of his hands. He makes sure his assistants do. He recruits players who fit the system, know what is coming and embrace it. And he and his assistants coach and teach the heck out of it.

So, it works as much because of commitment as much as anything else, the same way that Boeheim rode his trademark zone for so long.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Great scouting report, CDu!

A few things to add based on Virginia's stats.

Shooting
UVA can really shoot the ball well. They are averaging 39.3% from 3-point range (33rd in the nation) and 76.8% from the line (24th). Kyle Guy (42.6% 3P%/88.9% FT%), Devon Hall (47.2%/93.0%), and Ty Jerome (42.3%/100.0%) are all fantastic shooters. They don't go to the line all that often, which is nice. But they take a lot of threes and make a lot of them. The other UVA players are not as good at shooting. The gulf is quite wide. Closing out on the three UVA guards and forcing them inside the arc, where they are much worse shooters, would be a good idea. Guy, Hall, and Jerome all shoot below 50% from inside the arc.

On the defensive side, UVA limits shots. They are #2 in the nation in Opponent's Shooting % at 36.4%, #5 in 2P% at 41.0%, and #5 in 3P% at 29.1%. It's hard to shoot against them. Of course, Duke has faced other tough shooting defensive team already this season in Miami and Michigan State (which is not as good at defending the 3-point line). When Duke faced those defenses, they shot 52.4% against Miami (thanks Gary Trent, Jr.!) and 39.1% against Michigan State (thanks Grayson Allen!). Florida State is in the Top 25 in the nation in 3P% as well and Duke shot 26.7% against them. That was largely due to Gary Trent, Jr. and Trevon Duval going a combined 3-14 from 3. With how Trent, Jr. has been shooting the ball of late, nailing those outside shots will be key. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Wendell Carter, Jr. step out to the 3-point line and take a few open jumpers. Carter, Jr. has been shooting an absurd 48.0% from 3 on the season, mostly taking uncontested jumpers. If Jack Salt is going to float out to the perimeter to guard against that, Carter can most definitely drive in the lane for a layup or dump-off to Bagley III from time to time. At any rate, shooting will be key against UVA.

Rebounding
Virginia's defense is really great at generating steals (6th in the nation in steal %), forcing turnovers (15th), and blocking shots (28th). If they have one defensive flaw, it's on the boards. UVA is not a particularly good rebounding team. They are in the bottom half of the nation (193rd) in offensive rebounding rate and 93rd in defensive rebounding rate (74.8%). Duke, meanwhile, is #1 in the nation in offensive rebounding rate (39.1%). Curiously, the Blue Devils are just 102nd in defensive rebounding rate (74.7%), but that doesn't seem like a flaw that UVA is poised to exploit.

My hunch is that UVA is running away from the offensive rebounds to control the pace of play. UNC, a team that loves to get out in transition, really struggled to score against UVA. It's probably that UVAs guards are abandoning the offensive glass to keep the pace of play slow. The numbers sort of bear that out. Kyle Guy, Devon Hall, and Ty Jerome all have offensive rebounding rates of 1.7% or less. Gary Trent, Jr. and Grayson Allen are at 3.2% and 2.6%, for comparison. It's not that the UVA guys are short, either. They are about the same size as Duke's guards. On the defensive boards, the UVA guards fair much better. If Bagley III and Carter, Jr. are only battling two UVA players for defensive boards, I think that will end up in Duke's favor. UVA will be limited to one shot per possession.

To win, Duke will have to exploit its advantages on the glass and mitigate at least one or more of the strengths of this UVA team. That could be perimeter shooting or limiting turnovers. Duke's edge on the glass could keep possessions alive and create opportunities for easy baskets. It could also mean that Duke finds a way to keep UVA from shooting well from deep.

It's going to be a fascinating and intense matchup. I expect a relatively close game. Hopefully, Grayson or Gary (or both) will hit a few 3's in the last 10 minutes of the game to open things up a bit. Let's Go Duke!

[bbosbbos]

I got the feeling that UVA is the greatest team ever in the NCAA if I've never watched NCAA and just read what you guys wrote here.

If my memory is correct Tom Izzo knocked out Tony in every meeting. Can anyone close to our team forward this message to JUMBO? Tom Izzo has the best strategy to crush UVA.

[Hoos Crazy]

Anyway, if Duke chooses to not employ any "gimmick" like that, I'd expect to see a good mix of zone (which should be pretty effective as long as you find the shooters - our starting PG and wings are all shooting over 40% from 3 (Jerome 42% with a TON of super-deep looks, Guy 43%, Hall 47%). If you extend too far though, look for DeAndre Hunter to man the middle/FT area.

I agreed with almost everything you said, save this small point. Duke should not play zone at all against Virginia. I watched Duke's zone against Miami (and it worked well) and was dumbfounded that Miami couldn't attack it effectively at all. But Miami isn't a very good 3 point shooting team and its leading scorer is a post player. Virginia is a perimeter scoring team with no real post threat. Why zone that? Plus, Virginia is much more disciplined against the zone than Miami - frankly I think we'd shred it. Duke plays its 2-3 zone with the foul line wide open - get the ball to Wilkins or Hunter there and good things will happen.

[pfrduke]

A note about UVA's defense.

Their current defensive efficiency (kenpom) (https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE) of 81.5 is, by far, the best in the kenpom era. Seriously. Just use my link and click back through the years, and you'll see that nobody comes close to 81.5. It's a sick number, as the kids would say.

If UVA continues at this rate, it would have a good argument to be the greatest defensive team ever.

In conference play, UVA has allowed 83.4 points per 100 possessions (unadjusted). It's leaps and bounds better than the rest of the league - ACC average is 102.3 points per 100 possessions and the second best defense is Georgia Tech at 94.4/100.

The opposite side of the equation is Duke's offense. In conference play, we've scored 118.1 points per 100 possessions (unadjusted). Similarly leaps and bounds better than the rest of the league - UNC has the second best offense at 110.1/100.

A very fun clash of excellent units.

[Troublemaker]

I actually think we are well situated to attack UVA (to the extent anyone is). Both of our bigs are great and willing passers. Both bigs have shown the ability to score when 5-8 feet away from the basket rather than just at the rim.

I hope you're right and if you are that we can just play our normal game by posting up Bagley and Carter and having them make plays (scoring or passing out), we'll win comfortably.


I got the feeling that UVA is the greatest team ever in the NCAA if I've never watched NCAA and just read what you guys wrote here.

If my memory is correct Tom Izzo knocked out Tony in every meeting. Can anyone close to our team forward this message to JUMBO? Tom Izzo has the best strategy to crush UVA.

Wait, Duke is 8-2 against UVA in the Tony Bennett era. Why would we go to Tom Izzo for help? Besides, MSU only beat UVA twice, one a 2-pt win and one a 6-pt win. Both games could've gone either way.

I'll also let you in on a little secret. Almost every Duke fan posting in this thread thinks we're going to win. This is just DBR-style showing respect for your opponent, especially since we have a number of UVA posters here that we like.


I agreed with almost everything you said, save this small point. Duke should not play zone at all against Virginia. I watched Duke's zone against Miami (and it worked well) and was dumbfounded that Miami couldn't attack it effectively at all. But Miami isn't a very good 3 point shooting team and its leading scorer is a post player. Virginia is a perimeter scoring team with no real post threat. Why zone that? Plus, Virginia is much more disciplined against the zone than Miami - frankly I think we'd shred it. Duke plays its 2-3 zone with the foul line wide open - get the ball to Wilkins or Hunter there and good things will happen.

If this Duke team proves to be less adept at chasing guys around screens than previous versions, Duke should absolutely go to the 2-3 zone. Even if I agree with you, foul-line jumpers by Wilkins and Hunter will not hurt as much as open threes or layups off curls by Guy, Jerome, and Hall.

[DarkstarWahoo]

I agreed with almost everything you said, save this small point. Duke should not play zone at all against Virginia. I watched Duke's zone against Miami (and it worked well) and was dumbfounded that Miami couldn't attack it effectively at all. But Miami isn't a very good 3 point shooting team and its leading scorer is a post player. Virginia is a perimeter scoring team with no real post threat. Why zone that? Plus, Virginia is much more disciplined against the zone than Miami - frankly I think we'd shred it. Duke plays its 2-3 zone with the foul line wide open - get the ball to Wilkins or Hunter there and good things will happen.

Counterpoint: Our recent history with Syracuse, up to and including this year's game. We win as often as not, and I'm not attributing the Elite 8 collapse to the zone, but it seems pretty clear that it throws us off.

[COYS]

This is probably stating the obvious, but Saturday is a day when Duke simply needs to make shots. There's that old adage in basketball that perfect offense always beats perfect defense. The Cavaliers can play perfect defense against us, but that doesn't mean that our guys aren't talented enough to make some tough shots, anyway. We'll probably need to make more than a few tough shots, too, not unlike how we simply needed Grayson to take and make ridiculous threes against the Spartans earlier this season. Obviously, Tyus had a few big makes in the epic 2015 matchup. But Justise also made a few tough layups. Quinn was also selective but super-efficient shooting 3-4 from three.

The good news is that we are not just an efficient offense because we work to get easy buckets all the time. We're efficient because we have many guys who can make tough shots that can beat a perfectly executed defensive scheme. Gary has the size and strength to make shots off of curls in the lane and can obviously hit the open three. Trevon, despite his poor finishing in the Wake game, is excellent in traffic in the paint, as well. Obviously, we've seen Grayson hit some huge shots against good defenses on the biggest of stages over his career. Marvin has the ability to turn tough shots into "easy" dunks. And Wendell has really ascended of late, showing his full array of post moves and nifty face-up trickery.

This is going to be one of those games where we're going to need our guys to hit a few of those "don't shoot it! don't shoot it! YES! It wen't in!" buckets. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that we should abandon our usual sets and just go one-on-one. However, we'll need one or two crazy Trevon drives to fall, one or two of Grayson's deep threes to splash, and one or two ridiculous finishes from our big guys to drop to get the win. I'm looking forward to seeing what X's and O's K and the staff come up with to attack the UVA defense, but one of K's biggest strengths is his ability to put his guys in a place to succeed. Sometimes that's as simple as drawing up a "play" that is no more elaborate than "give Marvin the ball and let him work his magic." It'll be up to the players to know when a little hero-ball might be necessary and when to work through the full offensive set, but I'm confident that we have the talent to frustrate UVA's incredible D . . . especially if we manage to get a few well-defended shots to go down.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I hope you're right and if you are that we can just play our normal game by posting up Bagley and Carter and having them make plays (scoring or passing out), we'll win comfortably.



Wait, Duke is 8-2 against UVA in the Tony Bennett era. Why would we go to Tom Izzo for help? Besides, MSU only beat UVA twice, one a 2-pt win and one a 6-pt win. Both games could've gone either way.

I'll also let you in on a little secret. Almost every Duke fan posting in this thread thinks we're going to win. This is just DBR-style showing respect for your opponent, especially since we have a number of UVA posters here that we like.



If this Duke team proves to be less adept at chasing guys around screens than previous versions, Duke should absolutely go to the 2-3 zone. Even if I agree with you, foul-line jumpers by Wilkins and Hunter will not hurt as much as open threes or layups off curls by Guy, Jerome, and Hall.

Yup. And in fairness, I think most UVA fans think Duke is going to win as well. And advanced metrics feel the same way (or as much as advanced metrics can "feel").

The UVA fans here are undoubted my favorite. I mean, I love the NCStaters and Kansas fans, but the UVA fans are so appreciative. Not to mention, they know their basketball isn't an exciting brand of basketball, but they don't care. And they don't care because it's a damn effective form of basketball.

While I think Duke's ability to churn out elite offenses every year is impressive, I think Bennett's defensive schemes are even more impressive.

[Troublemaker]

Re: Duke's offensive rebounding. Our OReb% has been a more human 37% in ACC play, good for only 4th in the conference, and against a pretty weak schedule, to boot. That's still really good but I'm not sure I agree with our UVA brethren that Duke's offensive rebounding will be the decisive factor in this game. Or, let me put it this way: can Duke win this game without hitting a good percentage from three? It seems our UVA friends may believe so (because Bagley and Carter will vacuum all the misses), but I don't. I think Bennett will send 5 to the defensive boards and completely forgo fastbreaking. Duke is 8-2 against UVA as mentioned above, and the throughline to me for those wins is that, unlike other teams, Duke shoots well from three against the Pack Line. And on the other end, Duke holds down UVA's off-ball screening offense enough for Duke to have more points on the board when the final horn blows. I bet if we win, the same formula will hold. We have to get Grayson and Gary shots from three, and that means we can't turn the ball over before they get the opportunity to shoot. ACC teams are turning the ball on 25% of possessions against UVA.

[COYS]

ACC teams are turning the ball on 25% of possessions against UVA.

Man, that stat is crazy to behold . . . especially since they aren't employing the hyper-aggressive full court pressure that a team like WVU uses or even the half-court MTM overplay of the Williams/Duhon/Dunleavy/Boozer/Battier year(s). AND UVA is playing in an era in which turnovers are down across the board. No wonder they have the best Drtg of the KenPom era.

It is worth noting, though, that while Duke is only 2nd in offensive efficiency behind Nova, Duke's current O-rating of 126.2 would be the third best offensive rating ever in the KenPom era behind this year's Nova team (126.9) and the 2015 Wisconsin team (who finished with a ridiculous 129.0 adjusted points per possession!). So Duke's offense isn't just elite. It is one of the three best offenses of the past 17 years or so to this point in the season.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

Allen is VITAL for Duke. Because he is the only devil to have played usable minutes against UVA, and more importantly, he has to keep the kiddos level-headed, when the Cavs get multiple stops. I truly believe that if Allen lives up to his role as captain, the ACC will be a one game contest by the end of the day

[godins]

Someone linked a video or two in the Nerds Bearing GIFs thread.

It apparently is not easy to learn, so you really a bunch of veterans in your program to play it.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_rqCWWdir30
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9xicOzvbB6A

Here are those videos explaining the packline. h/t House G from the Nerds Bearing GIFs thread.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Y'all are too damn nice.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Y'all are too damn nice.

Just being truthful. Not to mention, Tony Bennett is my favorite coach whose name I can spell. Plus, I have a ton of friends from UVA. And they are all super sweet/awesome.

[cato]

Re: Duke's offensive rebounding. Our OReb% has been a more human 37% in ACC play, good for only 4th in the conference, and against a pretty weak schedule, to boot. That's still really good but I'm not sure I agree with our UVA brethren that Duke's offensive rebounding will be the decisive factor in this game. Or, let me put it this way: can Duke win this game without hitting a good percentage from three? It seems our UVA friends may believe so (because Bagley and Carter will vacuum all the misses), but I don't. I think Bennett will send 5 to the defensive boards and completely forgo fastbreaking. Duke is 8-2 against UVA as mentioned above, and the throughline to me for those wins is that, unlike other teams, Duke shoots well from three against the Pack Line. And on the other end, Duke holds down UVA's off-ball screening offense enough for Duke to have more points on the board when the final horn blows. I bet if we win, the same formula will hold. We have to get Grayson and Gary shots from three, and that means we can't turn the ball over before they get the opportunity to shoot. ACC teams are turning the ball on 25% of possessions against UVA.

But how much of the dip in offensive rebounding has been due to Javin and Bolden’s absense? Before the game yesterday, Coach K noted Javin’s importance on the boards. And Bolden allowed Duke to keep two bigs on the floor at all times.

[uh_no]

Allen is VITAL for Duke. Because he is the only devil to have played usable minutes against UVA, and more importantly, he has to keep the kiddos level-headed, when the Cavs get multiple stops. I truly believe that if Allen lives up to his role as captain, the ACC will be a one game contest by the end of the day

I'd say he knows a thing or two about beating the cavs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgCoVEyYN0E

(also, filming isn't allowed in cameron for non-media, don't make me have to ask you nicely to not do it)

[budwom]

I know Virginia's defense is incredibly good. Having said that, I got a kick out of the game a couple years ago (vs Duke) when Bilas spent the first 80% of the game (with UVA leading) repeating the phrase They Will Strangle You, and then Duke scored a bunch of points and won.

[weezie]

I got the feeling that UVA is the greatest team ever in the NCAA if I've never watched NCAA and just read what you guys wrote here.

If my memory is correct Tom Izzo knocked out Tony in every meeting. Can anyone close to our team forward this message to JUMBO? Tom Izzo has the best strategy to crush UVA.

Better still, conference call with Tyus Jones so he can give the team his super secret weaponry advice. PS, shhhh, it's shoot over the defense and keep shooting. And it'll be a tad easier in Durham than it was in Cville.

[Billy Dat]

If we need shooting on Saturday, and I know we do, I'd like to make sure my main man Wendell is getting some looks from 3-land. Specifically, the top of the key. We can pick and pop pretending to set up some hi/lo action and let the big smooth just fire away.

[azzefkram]

But how much of the dip in offensive rebounding has been due to Javin and Bolden’s absense? Before the game yesterday, Coach K noted Javin’s importance on the boards. And Bolden allowed Duke to keep two bigs on the floor at all times.

Going from Javin(Healthy) and Marques to AOC and Javin(Hobbled)/JRob/JWhite is a huge drop in the rebounding department.

[MChambers]

I think this would be a mistake. West Virginia has years of running their "press virginia" defense and they still only beat the Hoos by single digits in Morgantown. UVA can break down a less-well-executed press quickly and the VERY LAST thing you want to do is make things easier on the offensive end as that's our weakness.

As has been said by a couple of my fellow Hoos here, and in the excellent breakdown by CDu, your big advantage is likely to be Duke getting offensive rebounds. We've fallen off on that front this year, and I think it's the result of having more guards toward the outside of the defense looking for turnovers. The result of that is that your bigs don't have to actually beat the post trap by scoring, they can just get inside and gather offensive rebounds and either score if we're (unusually) out of position, or kick it back out for another perimeter shot.

I'm not saying press to get turnovers, but press to slow bringing the ball up. Maybe it doesn't matter with UVa's offense, because it's so slow anyway, but Duke sometimes runs a 3/4 court press just to make deliberate teams like UVa use up clock.

[Troublemaker]

But how much of the dip in offensive rebounding has been due to Javin and Bolden’s absense? Before the game yesterday, Coach K noted Javin’s importance on the boards. And Bolden allowed Duke to keep two bigs on the floor at all times.

That probably played a role. We'll see what happens going forward. In the two games since Javin's been back, Duke's combined OReb% for those two games was 37.5%. I hope we can start averaging 40+% again.

When dealing with great defensive coaches like Bennett in any sport, I have a game theory theory that if there's a glaring weakness for his defense heading into a big game (such that every UVA fan has mentioned offensive rebounding as a concern), THAT will be what he will NOT get beaten by in the game. He'll send 5 to the defensive boards or do something.

[DukieInBrasil]

I'm not saying press to get turnovers, but press to slow bringing the ball up. Maybe it doesn't matter with UVa's offense, because it's so slow anyway, but Duke sometimes runs a 3/4 court press just to make deliberate teams like UVa use up clock.

I agree that the token press (of whatever ilk) is a good idea, as long as UVA isn't throwing ridiculous passes over it to open corner 3s. Our defense is not all that great and seems especially vulnerable to late execution, so anything that shortens the amount of time the D needs to stay focused is good. Also, anything that might cause the opposing offense to rush at the end of the shot clock is good.
Against Wake, they didn't have the discipline on offense to really attack our defense when it was set. UVA does, so making shots and setting up a press of some sort might allow for the youth to stay focused long enough to get UVA to take some shots they don't want to take. Something about the way we were defending their guards, who aren't bad, really caused them to struggle. UVA's guards are better, and seem much less prone to mistakes, so reducing the time to be so methodical is a good idea. As mentioned previously, UVA loves to just run screen after screen after screen until the defense fails to fight thru one of them. Reducing the length of time they have to run screening action is good for Duke, as long as it doesn't lead to long outlet passes over the defense.

[Troublemaker]

I'm not saying press to get turnovers, but press to slow bringing the ball up. Maybe it doesn't matter with UVa's offense, because it's so slow anyway, but Duke sometimes runs a 3/4 court press just to make deliberate teams like UVa use up clock.

Yeah, I agree that shaving 5 seconds off every possession -- so 5 seconds less of our guards chasing shooters through physical screens -- could be useful. Actually, the more I think about it, we should just zone. We'll need Grayson and Gary to hit threes on offense. Why wear them out chasing Guy and Hall on the other end?


If we need shooting on Saturday, and I know we do, I'd like to make sure my main man Wendell is getting some looks from 3-land. Specifically, the top of the key. We can pick and pop pretending to set up some hi/lo action and let the big smooth just fire away.

Agreed. Another three-point shooter hitting in this game besides Grayson and Gary would be huge. I'm looking at Wendell, too.

[MChambers]

If we need shooting on Saturday, and I know we do, I'd like to make sure my main man Wendell is getting some looks from 3-land. Specifically, the top of the key. We can pick and pop pretending to set up some hi/lo action and let the big smooth just fire away.
Yep. Wendell will have some looks from there. In the Wake game, while Wake still had a small chance, he got open for a three and didn’t hesitate. He’s not only good from three, he’s also confident.

[cato]

Yes please.

[Billy Dat]

Yep. Wendell will have some looks from there. In the Wake game, while Wake still had a small chance, he got open for a three and didn’t hesitate. He’s not only good from three, he’s also confident.

In regards to 3s and zone D for Duke and Virginia's desire to lure teams into bad shots, there's a chance we see more of that AOC, Grayson, Gary perimeter. In the Q&A portion of last night's presser, K mentioned Alex giving the zone more size. Obviously, Grayson was running the team over the last 10 minutes because Trevon tried to drive into their zone a few times with bad results. Don't get me wrong, I want Trevon to play well and shoot well. But, I, too, think that zone would be ok because despite UVAs solid shooting, teams just don't face a lot of zone. We'll see.

[Kedsy]

In the two games since Javin's been back, Duke's combined OReb% for those two games was 37.5%. I hope we can start averaging 40+% again.

In the last two games, the difference between combining for 37.5% of available offensive rebounds and combining for 40.6% of available offensive rebounds would be an average of one additional offensive board per game. In those games, Javin played 11 mpg and Marques played 0 mpg. In all games that they've actually played, Javin has averaged 13 mpg and Marques has averaged 12 mpg.

Got to think that adding another 10 to 15 minutes (combined) per game of Javin and Marques should lead to at least one additional offensive rebound per game.*


* Looking at straight averages, in the two games in question there was an offensive rebound opportunity every 1:15 of game time. In 10 to 15 minutes, on average there would be 8 to 12 OR opps. Javin's OR% is almost 16%; Marques's OR% is almost 14%. So on average we should expect to see between 1.2 and 1.8 additional offensive rebounds in 15 minutes.

[richardjackson199]

So an ESPN Analyst, Seth Walder, has posted this regarding each team's chances of landing a #1 seed based on the outcome of Saturday's game:

Chance to earn a No. 1 seed in NCAA tournament, based on result of Saturday's game:

Virginia w/ win: 96%
Virginia w/ loss: 87%

Duke w/ win: 65%
Duke w/ loss: 38%

I have no clue how he arrived at those numbers, but it would be good for Duke to beat UVA at home.

[nmduke2001]

This.

The mirror to "Duke gets all the calls" is "Virginia gets no calls (called against them)."

Ugly, ugly basketball.

Should be an interesting test of immovable object (pack line) vs. irresistible force (Bagley).

Virginia reminds me a bit of Butler when they were going to back to back championships. They play a very physical defense and force the refs to make the call. Eventually the calls stop.

I believe that rebounding is a big key in beating a really good defensive/slow pace team. If you give up offensive rebounds to a slow pace team like Virginia, you'll go crazy playing 50 seconds of defense. You can also run on defensive rebounds and hopefully score before they get set. If you offensive rebound you get scramble points (Duke gets a lot of open threes on offensive rebounds).

[dukelion]

Virginia is dead last in pace again this season at just under 60 possessions a game while Duke is near the top at 72.

That's quite the discrepancy. Duke has essentially played 3 more full games than Virgina based on the number of possessions.

The match-up itself like others have said is fascinating.......strength vs strength.

Should be a good one.

[Troublemaker]

So an ESPN Analyst, Seth Walder, has posted this regarding each team's chances of landing a #1 seed based on the outcome of Saturday's game:

Chance to earn a No. 1 seed in NCAA tournament, based on result of Saturday's game:

Virginia w/ win: 96%
Virginia w/ loss: 87%

Duke w/ win: 65%
Duke w/ loss: 38%

I have no clue how he arrived at those numbers, but it would be good for Duke to beat UVA at home.

I long ago stopped looking at individual bracket opinions because no single analyst is going to be more accurate than the wisdom of crowds.

According to Bracket Matrix (http://bracketmatrix.com/) (a collator), Duke would be the third #1 seed as of today and UVA would be the fourth #1 seed. (Not that this necessarily contradicts the single analyst you mentioned, since they are talking about slightly different things.)

I feel good about where we're at despite the two losses @BC and @NCSU. We can obviously thank the sparkling non-conference resume for that.

All that said, I agree. Saturday's game is huuuuuuge.

[Bull City Proud]

Snarky answer: They have earned a reputation as a "tough defensive team" which allows them to foul as often as they want without the refs calling it.

Not-as-snarky answer: Their chosen style of play is designed to frustrate opponents on both ends of the floor. They're a pain to play against (and watch) in many ways, not just on defense. This adds to the effectiveness of their defensive scheme, which admittedly does work very well.

You are correct about that. They foul a lot, but their reputation for defense lets them get away with a lot of fouls .

[BobBender]

While I agree, the whole college basketball world has circled this game. This game is being hyped up. UVa may play ugly ball, but they are a top 3 team in the country.

Duke will absolutely not take this game for granted. They will be ready. It's that big of a game.

Not being hyped much at all imo for 2 reasons.: Not televised on ESPN and UVA is not loved by aforementioned ESPN because of their style and lukewarm endorsement from Bilas, Jay Will, Myron Metcalf and most of the crew affiliated with ESPN. The narrative is their style is “ bad for the sport”. I disagree with that but ,hey, I like defense, what a concept!

[duketaylor]

What should be the lines for this game?

Duke -4

O/U 137?

Very curious.

Need Miami to come back to beat Louis in next 1:20 in OT.

[kako]

So an ESPN Analyst, Seth Walder, has posted this regarding each team's chances of landing a #1 seed based on the outcome of Saturday's game:

Chance to earn a No. 1 seed in NCAA tournament, based on result of Saturday's game:

Virginia w/ win: 96%
Virginia w/ loss: 87%

Duke w/ win: 65%
Duke w/ loss: 38%

I have no clue how he arrived at those numbers, but it would be good for Duke to beat UVA at home.

I would say that he pulled them out of his you-know-what. This kind of reporting contributes to why ESPN is having problems with viewers. Anyone with half a brain knows that the season is only half over, so how the heck can anyone right now predict about seeding with single-digit percentage accuracy?

But the game is huge, if only to gauge where Duke is now. I'm less concerned about Duke's offense. What I want to see is how their defense stacks up against a top team, even if it is UVA's offense. The b2b's against Pitt and WF along with Miami were really just tune ups in my mind. Miami *might* be a tourney team (my all knowing crystal ball says that they are a 43% chance of an 11 seed!), but the others are not. What happens here against a lock to make the tourney?

All that aside, I think Duke's guards need to show up and show up big. Bagley and Carter will get theirs, perhaps in proportion to UVA's defense, but they will get theirs. Will the Blue Devil guards do the same? Some bench help would be big, too.

[Troublemaker]

Not being hyped much at all imo for 2 reasons.: Not televised on ESPN and UVA is not loved by aforementioned ESPN because of their style and lukewarm endorsement from Bilas, Jay Will, Myron Metcalf and most of the crew affiliated with ESPN. The narrative is their style is “ bad for the sport”. I disagree with that but ,hey, I like defense, what a concept!

It's being hyped locally and in non-ESPN media. The hype for this game is pretty good so far, from what I've seen. It will increase dramatically as gameday approaches. I'm very excited.

[durhamhoo]

I know Virginia's defense is incredibly good. Having said that, I got a kick out of the game a couple years ago (vs Duke) when Bilas spent the first 80% of the game (with UVA leading) repeating the phrase They Will Strangle You, and then Duke scored a bunch of points and won.

Do you mean when Allen CLEARLY went up and down (youtube it - clear as day with the replay his foot was on the floor and ball in hand), didn't get the shot off, but they called it good anyway? Just saying, that's one game I would think most Duke fans would put last on their smack talk lists, simply because there are so many others from which to pick.

Signed,
Still bitter

[DavidBenAkiva]

Do you mean when Allen CLEARLY went up and down (youtube it - clear as day with the replay his foot was on the floor and ball in hand), didn't get the shot off, but they called it good anyway? Just saying, that's one game I would think most Duke fans would put last on their smack talk lists, simply because there are so many others from which to pick.

Signed,
Still bitter

Did you join this forum just to post this?

He walked. In slow motion, when you can carefully analyze every instant, he clearly had his foot down when the ball finally left his hand. In real time, it was not so clear. It was more evident that Marial Shayok threw his chest into Allen before he got into the shooting motion. The announcers even noted "no foul called" while the play was happening. But what are you going to do? Refs aren't going to call anything but the most egregious fouls in the final moments. If by some miracle Gordon Hayward's shot had gone in at the end of the 2010 National Championship. many on this board would routinely reference the obvious moving screen by Matt Howard against Kyle Singler. But it's a human game played by humans and the refs are going to let it play out in the final moments unless they absolutely have to make a call.

At the end of the day, the UVA-Duke game barely factored into the race for the ACC or National Championships. If UVA had won that game, they would have tied UNC for the 1 seed in the ACC Tournament and had the overall 1 seed in the tournament based on head-to-head results. But UVA lost to UNC in the tournament championship game. And then they still would have lost to Syracuse in the Elite. Why so bitter about this relatively meaningless loss to Duke in the regular season? Oh right, it's Duke.

[CDu]

Do you mean when Allen CLEARLY went up and down (youtube it - clear as day with the replay his foot was on the floor and ball in hand), didn't get the shot off, but they called it good anyway? Just saying, that's one game I would think most Duke fans would put last on their smack talk lists, simply because there are so many others from which to pick.

Signed,
Still bitter

And I'm sure that was the ONLY missed call in that entire game.

[budwom]

Not being hyped much at all imo for 2 reasons.: Not televised on ESPN and UVA is not loved by aforementioned ESPN because of their style and lukewarm endorsement from Bilas, Jay Will, Myron Metcalf and most of the crew affiliated with ESPN. The narrative is their style is “ bad for the sport”. I disagree with that but ,hey, I like defense, what a concept!

you comment about UVA having a "lukewarm endorsement from Bilas" is just overwhelmingly, gargantually wrong. Where did you get this notion? He's already resurrected his They Will Strangle You theme, and just yesterday compared their defense to a boa constrictor....gushing praise left and right. "I cannot recall a defensive team quite as good as Virginia" among his other comments yesterday...

[Troublemaker]

Do you mean when Allen CLEARLY went up and down (youtube it - clear as day with the replay his foot was on the floor and ball in hand), didn't get the shot off, but they called it good anyway? Just saying, that's one game I would think most Duke fans would put last on their smack talk lists, simply because there are so many others from which to pick.

Signed,
Still bitter

You guys refer to that as the "Grayson Allen travel" game, but around here, we call it the "Shayok's Non-Vertical Arms Fouling Grayson As He Goes Up For The Shot" game. Gotta admit, you UVA people have punchier titles. I've always admired that and also the sun dresses I see around Charlottesville during warm months.

Higher-resolution version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/UnluckyCrispCrayfish)

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/UnluckyCrispCrayfish-size_restricted.gif

[CDu]

What I want to see is how their defense stacks up against a top team, even if it is UVA's offense.

I've seen some form of this comment in a few places. UVa's offense is not mediocre. It is very good. It isn't as efficient as our offense, but it is a very good offense. Top-40 nationally, top-5 in the ACC.

Their defense is unquestionably better than their offense, but their offense is still good. Their offense has been better than our defense thus far.


Miami *might* be a tourney team (my all knowing crystal ball says that they are a 43% chance of an 11 seed!), but the others are not. What happens here against a lock to make the tourney?

Miami is going to make the tournament, and should be a single-digit seed. They are a borderline top-25 team.

[dukelion]

Do you mean when Allen CLEARLY went up and down (youtube it - clear as day with the replay his foot was on the floor and ball in hand), didn't get the shot off, but they called it good anyway? Just saying, that's one game I would think most Duke fans would put last on their smack talk lists, simply because there are so many others from which to pick.

Signed,
Still bitter

Or maybe he was talking abut this game?

https://youtu.be/dj5Hx0aWyYg

[MChambers]

You guys refer to that as the "Grayson Allen travel" game, but around here, we call it the "Shayok's Non-Vertical Arms Fouling Grayson As He Goes Up For The Shot" game. Gotta admit, you UVA people have punchier titles. I've always admired that and also the sun dresses I see around Charlottesville during warm months.

Higher-resolution version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/UnluckyCrispCrayfish)

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/UnluckyCrispCrayfish-size_restricted.gif

I recall that after the game, Bennett said that when he and K were shaking hands, Bennett said "I thought he traveled" and K responded: "I thought he was fouled".

[flyingdutchdevil]

Or maybe he was talking abut this game?

https://youtu.be/dj5Hx0aWyYg

Not sure what year that was. Perrantes is playing. Can be any year between 2003-2017...

[devildeac]

Did you join this forum just to post this?

He walked. In slow motion, when you can carefully analyze every instant, he clearly had his foot down when the ball finally left his hand. In real time, it was not so clear. It was more evident that Marial Shayok threw his chest into Allen before he got into the shooting motion. The announcers even noted "no foul called" while the play was happening. But what are you going to do? Refs aren't going to call anything but the most egregious fouls in the final moments. If by some miracle Gordon Hayward's shot had gone in at the end of the 2010 National Championship. many on this board would routinely reference the obvious moving screen by Matt Howard against Kyle Singler. But it's a human game played by humans and the refs are going to let it play out in the final moments unless they absolutely have to make a call.

At the end of the day, the UVA-Duke game barely factored into the race for the ACC or National Championships. If UVA had won that game, they would have tied UNC for the 1 seed in the ACC Tournament and had the overall 1 seed in the tournament based on head-to-head results. But UVA lost to UNC in the tournament championship game. And then they still would have lost to Syracuse in the Elite. Why so bitter about this relatively meaningless loss to Duke in the regular season? Oh right, it's Duke.

Good reply. I actually thought Allen was fouled twice on that play. :o:rolleyes:

[devildeac]

Not sure what year that was. Perrantes is playing. Can be any year between 2003-2017...

I think he played at UVA even longer than that. :rolleyes:;)

[Wahoo2000]

You guys refer to that as the "Grayson Allen travel" game, but around here, we call it the "Shayok's Non-Vertical Arms Fouling Grayson As He Goes Up For The Shot" game. Gotta admit, you UVA people have punchier titles. I've always admired that and also the sun dresses I see around Charlottesville during warm months.

Higher-resolution version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/UnluckyCrispCrayfish)

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/UnluckyCrispCrayfish-size_restricted.gif

I don't have a problem with the no-calls at the end of that one. Given time and situation, a foul there on Shayok is extremely unlikely, and Allen's release/foot landing was sooooo bang-bang in real time, I doubt even most UVA fans could honestly say that they were 100% sure he travelled in real-time.

Still pissed about Rick Hartzell in '97 though. I may never get over that. Especially his blatant lying that he "never saw Dersch" waiting to check in when replays clearly show him trying to wave Dersch onto the court after Nolan's first FT, Dersch saying "no, I'm in for the shooter", and Hartzel saying "ok". Literally the worst officiating gaffe I've seen in watching ACC basketball since the early 80s. That guy should have retired (or been forced to) after that day. Everybody makes mistakes, but if it's egregious enough, you should be F-I-N-I-S-H-E-D. There's little in sports that happens these days that really rile me up (I'm not emotional about the UNC scandal, I don't "hate" Duke like the rest of the world seems to, etc) but that day (especially since I was right there on the floor as a student) is probably one loss that'll always bother me.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think he played at UVA even longer than that. :rolleyes:;)

Not so sure. The NCAA only gives 10-year eligibility extensions to scrappy PGs like Perrantes and Aaron Craft.

[English]

you comment about UVA having a "lukewarm endorsement from Bilas" is just overwhelmingly, gargantually wrong. Where did you get this notion? He's already resurrected his They Will Strangle You theme, and just yesterday compared their defense to a boa constrictor...gushing praise left and right. "I cannot recall a defensive team quite as good as Virginia" among his other comments yesterday...

You've totally neglected the hundreds of times Jay has said some variation of "being down to UVa by 5 is like being down to anyone else by 15." Quite the oversight.

[Truth&Justise]

I don't have a problem with the no-calls at the end of that one. Given time and situation, a foul there on Shayok is extremely unlikely, and Allen's release/foot landing was sooooo bang-bang in real time, I doubt even most UVA fans could honestly say that they were 100% sure he travelled in real-time.

Still pissed about Rick Hartzell in '97 though. I may never get over that. Especially his blatant lying that he "never saw Dersch" waiting to check in when replays clearly show him trying to wave Dersch onto the court after Nolan's first FT, Dersch saying "no, I'm in for the shooter", and Hartzel saying "ok". Literally the worst officiating gaffe I've seen in watching ACC basketball since the early 80s. That guy should have retired (or been forced to) after that day. Everybody makes mistakes, but if it's egregious enough, you should be F-I-N-I-S-H-E-D. There's little in sports that happens these days that really rile me up (I'm not emotional about the UNC scandal, I don't "hate" Duke like the rest of the world seems to, etc) but that day (especially since I was right there on the floor as a student) is probably one loss that'll always bother me.

That's fair -- agree on both counts. Allen's foot coming down was almost impossible to spot in real-time, and un-reviewable on replay. Can't really blame anyone for that.

As for 1997 -- Duke benefitted from the ref's error. And thank you for recognizing that, while Duke benefitted from that error, we did not conspire to cause the error. I thought it was smart of Duke to try and push for a score before UVA could get organized on defense, but there was no way to know that would contribute to the ref's bungling things so badly. When the clock didn't start at the beginning of the play, they should have just stopped the play. It was the decision to start the clock mid-play that really screwed UVA -- now the play was official. Had it not started at all, they could have just replayed the last five seconds. We'd probably be screaming and comparing things to the 1972 Olympics, but it would have been more correct. Hartzel changing his story after-the-fact did not help. I understand, and I'd be mad too.

UVA is alright in my books. I admire the school and the basketball program. Let's hope for a great game on Saturday.

[dtl5g]

I recall that after the game, Bennett said that when he and K were shaking hands, Bennett said "I thought he traveled" and K responded: "I thought he was fouled".

That slow-mo replay is a pretty good replay. It appears to me that Shayok was moving backwards towards his own baseline and trying to avoid contact while still contesting the shot. While his arms are not vertical, it appears that he does not touch Allen, at least until Allen takes his left arm off the ball, moves the ball solely into his right hand, and initiates the contact with his left arm flailing at Shayok, who is trying to move backwards and out of the way. Allen's left arm pushes off into Shayok, which clears some room for him to get the shot off with his right hand.

I am a UVa fan, and therefore admit that I am biased, but I am very confident that if the shoe were on the other foot, and I was able to watch that replay, I would admit that it should either be a no-call or a charge on the UVa player. That said, I admit that in real-time it appeared as if it could easily be a foul on Shayok.

Either way, this is just one play in a long game, and I doubt even 2% of college basketball refs would have realized it was a travel in real-time, and probably less than half of that 2% would have the guts to call it against the home team. Probably fewer than 1% of all refs would call a charge on the home team player for extending his off arm. After all, the refs did not call this one a travel, which was MUCH, MUCH worse, IMO. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0DWGOhNDVo

I also recognize that we are often the beneficiaries of the close calls in our favor at the JPJ (a large part of our ridiculously good record there the last 4-5 years or so), and therefore it is only fair that the close calls go against us when we are on the road.

Long story short, UVa had plenty of chances to win the game before that, and I am sure at least a few close calls went in our favor prior to the game-ender.

Looking forward to this weekend - should be a good one. My personal opinion is that this is the best team we have had since I was a little kid rooting for Sampson, narrowly edging out the Brogdon senior year team and the Brogdon junior year team. We just have more chess pieces for Bennett to use, especially defensively, and we are very experienced, especially our bigs.

[uh_no]

While his arms are not vertical, it appears that he does not touch Allen, at least until Allen takes his left arm off the ball, moves the ball solely into his right hand, and initiates the contact with his left arm flailing at Shayok, who is trying to move backwards and out of the way. Allen's left arm pushes off into Shayok, which clears some room for him to get the shot off with his right hand.


all you need to know is his arms weren't vertical and there was contact with the arms of the shooter. that's a foul. I understand your trying to rationalize it (god knows it happens so often here in the other direction...), but you're wrong here.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Not so sure. The NCAA only gives 10-year eligibility extensions to scrappy PGs like Perrantes and Aaron Craft.

Incorrect! Glue-guy wings also get to play forever. I've said here before that I'm pretty sure Matt Jones roomed with Alaa Abdelnaby his freshman year. To keep it in the ACC, Ademola Okulaja also played forever. We're REALLY hopeful the NCAA looks at Wilkins' size and skill set and lets him stick around a few years longer. :cool:

[budwom]

You've totally neglected the hundreds of times Jay has said some variation of "being down to UVa by 5 is like being down to anyone else by 15." Quite the oversight.

guilty as charged, was going off to a dentist appointment. Will not happen again!
Having said all this, I DO think that Virginia has an incredibly good defense...it's just the notion that Bilas somehow is downplaying this was difficult to let slide without comment.

[-bdbd]

What should be the lines for this game?

Duke -4

O/U 137?

Very curious.

Need Miami to come back to beat Louis in next 1:20 in OT.

With the Mia late OT win over Louisville last night, the Saturday game is now #1 vs #2 in the ACC. ESPN has their headline.
And that Seth Walder (odds of getting a #1 seed) piece is also predicting Duke with 60% chance of winning on Saturday. Feels about right to me.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/258/virginia-cavaliers

Good UVA-Duke preview: http://augustafreepress.com/strength-vs-strength-virginia-pack-line-vs-dukes-bagley-carter/

[Troublemaker]

That slow-mo replay is a pretty good replay. It appears to me that Shayok was moving backwards towards his own baseline and trying to avoid contact while still contesting the shot. While his arms are not vertical, it appears that he does not touch Allen, at least until Allen takes his left arm off the ball, moves the ball solely into his right hand, and initiates the contact with his left arm flailing at Shayok, who is trying to move backwards and out of the way. Allen's left arm pushes off into Shayok, which clears some room for him to get the shot off with his right hand.

I am a UVa fan, and therefore admit that I am biased, but I am very confident that if the shoe were on the other foot, and I was able to watch that replay, I would admit that it should either be a no-call or a charge on the UVa player. That said, I admit that in real-time it appeared as if it could easily be a foul on Shayok.



all you need to know is his arms weren't vertical and there was contact with the arms of the shooter. that's a foul. I understand your trying to rationalize it (god knows it happens so often here in the other direction...), but you're wrong here.

Uh_no is absolutely correct.

Here is the rulebook for the 2015-16 season: http://www.ncaapublications.com/productdownloads/BR17.pdf

(Note: it would be the same for any other season, as verticality has been around for awhile, but might as well use the rulebook for the season of the game in question).

Shayok's non-vertical arms violate Section 38 (Verticality), Article 1, rules D, E, F, and K (on pg 58 of the pdf)

Also relevant is Section 18, Article 5 (on pg 52 of the pdf) regarding the use of hands and arms: It shall be illegal to extend one’s arms fully or partially, other than vertically, so that the freedom of movement of an opponent is hindered when contact with the extended arms occurs.

Shayok was not in legal guarding position when contact with his extended arms occurred with Grayson. While I DO think Shayok got Grayson on the left elbow before Grayson made his clear out swipe, it matters not who initiated the contact when Shayok was not in legal guarding position to begin with. Shayok violated the vertical cylinder of Grayson, who has a right to go up for the shot without getting entangled in Shayok's illegal non-vertical arms.

[dtl5g]

Uh_no is absolutely correct.

Here is the rulebook for the 2015-16 season: http://www.ncaapublications.com/productdownloads/BR17.pdf

(Note: it would be the same for any other season, as verticality has been around for awhile, but might as well use the rulebook for the season of the game in question).

Shayok's non-vertical arms violate Section 38 (Verticality), Article 1, rules D, E, F, and K (on pg 58 of the pdf)

Also relevant is Section 18, Article 5 (on pg 52 of the pdf) regarding the use of hands and arms: It shall be illegal to extend one’s arms fully or partially, other than vertically, so that the freedom of movement of an opponent is hindered when contact with the extended arms occurs.

Shayok was not in legal guarding position when contact with his extended arms occurred with Grayson. While I DO think Shayok got Grayson on the left elbow before Grayson made his clear out swipe, it matters not who initiated the contact when Shayok was not in legal guarding position to begin with. Shayok violated the vertical cylinder of Grayson, who has a right to go up for the shot without getting entangled in Shayok's illegal non-vertical arms.

Hmmm, not trying to be a jerk, but I think this is a bit of a stretch. If "non-vertical arms" plus "contact" is all it takes to draw a foul, then all sorts of completely ridiculous fouls would be called on a regular basis that currently are NOT actually called by officials.

The key phrase is "so that the freedom of movement of an opponent is hindered" and "vertical cylinder." The only reason any contact occurred is because Grayson cleared out with his left arm. Shayok's arm was not in Grayson's "vertical cylinder" at all. If any contact had occurred between Shayok's non-vertical arms and Grayson's body, head, shoulders, or his right arm, in the natural act of shooting or driving, it would clearly be a foul. But that is not what happened, IMO.

Appreciate the banter. It is always interesting to me to see how different fan bases see the same play, even after the benefit of slo-motion replay.

In any event, this is all old news. Here's to a good game Saturday with no injuries.

[cato]

Hmmm, not trying to be a jerk, but I think this is a bit of a stretch. If "non-vertical arms" plus "contact" is all it takes to draw a foul, then all sorts of completely ridiculous fouls would be called on a regular basis that currently are NOT actually called by officials.

The key phrase is "so that the freedom of movement of an opponent is hindered" and "vertical cylinder." The only reason any contact occurred is because Grayson cleared out with his left arm. Shayok's arm was not in Grayson's "vertical cylinder" at all. If any contact had occurred between Shayok's non-vertical arms and Grayson's body, head, shoulders, or his right arm, in the natural act of shooting or driving, it would clearly be a foul. But that is not what happened, IMO.

Appreciate the banter. It is always interesting to me to see how different fan bases see the same play, even after the benefit of slo-motion replay.

In any event, this is all old news. Here's to a good game Saturday with no injuries.

You are entitled to your opinions, but not your own facts. Or rules.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Incorrect! Glue-guy wings also get to play forever. I've said here before that I'm pretty sure Matt Jones roomed with Alaa Abdelnaby his freshman year. To keep it in the ACC, Ademola Okulaja also played forever. We're REALLY hopeful the NCAA looks at Wilkins' size and skill set and lets him stick around a few years longer. :cool:

Hahahaha. Is Matt Jones your equivalent to our London Perrantes? Maybe because I follow Duke so closely that I feel like Matt Jones was a 4-year player. Also, Matt didn't play much his freshman year.

Someone like Kyle Singler or John Scheyer fits the description a little better, although Singler was very high-profile during his tenure at Duke.

[Troublemaker]

Hmmm, not trying to be a jerk, but I think this is a bit of a stretch. If "non-vertical arms" plus "contact" is all it takes to draw a foul, then all sorts of completely ridiculous fouls would be called on a regular basis that currently are NOT actually called by officials.

The key phrase is "so that the freedom of movement of an opponent is hindered" and "vertical cylinder." The only reason any contact occurred is because Grayson cleared out with his left arm. Shayok's arm was not in Grayson's "vertical cylinder" at all. If any contact had occurred between Shayok's non-vertical arms and Grayson's body, head, shoulders, or his right arm, in the natural act of shooting or driving, it would clearly be a foul. But that is not what happened, IMO.

Appreciate the banter. It is always interesting to me to see how different fan bases see the same play, even after the benefit of slo-motion replay.

In any event, this is all old news. Here's to a good game Saturday with no injuries.

Why would the left arm be exempted from the list of body parts?

Think about it this way: Grayson has the freedom to move his left arm from right to left within his vertical cylinder. The reason contact occurred with that movement is because Shayok's arms weren't vertical and were invading Grayson's cylinder.

Look at the following play. Amile Jefferson's face gets too close to the offensive player and violates the offensive player's vertical cylinder. So, even though the offensive player's arms initiated the contact with Amile's face when making a right-to-left movement, Amile gets called for the defensive foul.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxMstITYV5k

With all that said, Shayok fouled Grayson on the left arm before the clear-out swipe, anyway :-)

[kako]

I've seen some form of this comment in a few places. UVa's offense is not mediocre. It is very good. It isn't as efficient as our offense, but it is a very good offense. Top-40 nationally, top-5 in the ACC.

Their defense is unquestionably better than their offense, but their offense is still good. Their offense has been better than our defense thus far.



Miami is going to make the tournament, and should be a single-digit seed. They are a borderline top-25 team.

Not throwing shade at UVA's offense overall. It's just that from what I've seen, their guards aren't the quick, athletic slashing types that seem to haunt Duke lately. They can hit 3s and are certainly efficient. I just want to see how Duke handles a better offense than what they've seen lately.

And my Miami prognostication was tongue-in-cheek about percentage chances. Perhaps should have used an emoji :p

[duke2x]

What should be the lines for this game?

Duke -4

O/U 137?

Pomeroy has Duke +1 today while Sagarin has Duke -3. I would set the line at Duke -1 based on those. My snarky O/U would be 89, but I think 120-125 is more realistic. We rarely score 70 on UVA, and I don't see this team breaking that margin for one opponent only.

BTW, I am in the minority of DBR posters. I will thrilled with Duke by 1 in this game and to keep a reasonable lead in the last 5 minutes like we had in 2012, 2014, and 2016. I am glad we don't have to play them in a neutral environment this year until San Antonio (if it happens).

[dtl5g]

Why would the left arm be exempted from the list of body parts?

Think about it this way: Grayson has the freedom to move his left arm from right to left within his vertical cylinder. The reason contact occurred with that movement is because Shayok's arms weren't vertical and were invading Grayson's cylinder.

Look at the following play. Amile Jefferson's face gets too close to the offensive player and violates the offensive player's vertical cylinder. So, even though the offensive player's arms initiated the contact with Amile's face when making a right-to-left movement, Amile gets called for the defensive foul.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxMstITYV5k

With all that said, Shayok fouled Grayson on the left arm before the clear-out swipe, anyway :-)

This play is very different from the Shayok play. In this play, Jefferson is getting into the offensive player's vertical space, whereas Shayok was retreating and trying to stay out of Allen's space, but stay close enough that he can contest the shot.

Honestly, I think the Elon player is going to get a flagrant 1 more often than not for bringing that elbow around and making contact with the defender's jaw (I have seen the same type of play called a charge/flagrant 1 a number of times), though I guess I understand the rationale of the ref: that Jefferson initiated the contact by invading the players cylinder, which didn't allow the offensive player to make a normal basketball play in swiveling the basketball from right to left. If I were a ref there, I would've called an offensive foul, though.

I completely agree that Grayson has the right to move his left arm within the vertical cylinder. I would simply respond that it did not appear that he was moving his arm in the cylinder (it sure appeared to be outside the cylinder to me), nor did it appear that he was attempting to make a normal basketball play, unless "pushing the defender away to create space" is a normal basketball play.

In any event, I am done arguing this call. I didn't even notice the travel in real time, and I think my own fanbase has overreacted greatly to that play and the refs in general. But I am not going to go the complete other direction and say it was a foul, either.

[budwom]

Pomeroy has Duke +1 today while Sagarin has Duke -3. I would set the line at Duke -1 based on those. My snarky O/U would be 89, but I think 120-125 is more realistic. We rarely score 70 on UVA, and I don't see this team breaking that margin for one opponent only.

BTW, I am in the minority of DBR posters. I will thrilled with Duke by 1 in this game and to keep a reasonable lead in the last 5 minutes like we had in 2012, 2014, and 2016. I am glad we don't have to play them in a neutral environment this year until San Antonio (if it happens).

Not sure where you get this, but Pomeroy has had Duke at -1 for some time.

[DukieInBrasil]

This play is very different from the Shayok play. In this play, Jefferson is getting into the offensive player's vertical space, whereas Shayok was retreating and trying to stay out of Allen's space, but stay close enough that he can contest the shot.

Honestly, I think the Elon player is going to get a flagrant 1 more often than not for bringing that elbow around and making contact with the defender's jaw (I have seen the same type of play called a charge/flagrant 1 a number of times), though I guess I understand the rationale of the ref: that Jefferson initiated the contact by invading the players cylinder, which didn't allow the offensive player to make a normal basketball play in swiveling the basketball from right to left. If I were a ref there, I would've called an offensive foul, though.

I completely agree that Grayson has the right to move his left arm within the vertical cylinder. I would simply respond that it did not appear that he was moving his arm in the cylinder (it sure appeared to be outside the cylinder to me), nor did it appear that he was attempting to make a normal basketball play, unless "pushing the defender away to create space" is a normal basketball play.

In any event, I am done arguing this call. I didn't even notice the travel in real time, and I think my own fanbase has overreacted greatly to that play and the refs in general. But I am not going to go the complete other direction and say it was a foul, either.

doesn't really matter what he was trying to do, most of the time players aren't trying to commit the infractions they're called for. He tried to stay out of Grayson's way, but failed. Hence the foul was called.

[BLPOG]

doesn't really matter what he was trying to do, most of the time players aren't trying to commit the infractions they're called for. He tried to stay out of Grayson's way, but failed. Hence the foul was called.

FTFY. It wasn't actually called, the point is just that it was one within the rules, and as you said, what Shayok was trying to do is irrelevant.

[Troublemaker]

This play is very different from the Shayok play. In this play, Jefferson is getting into the offensive player's vertical space, whereas Shayok was retreating and trying to stay out of Allen's space, but stay close enough that he can contest the shot.

Honestly, I think the Elon player is going to get a flagrant 1 more often than not for bringing that elbow around and making contact with the defender's jaw (I have seen the same type of play called a charge/flagrant 1 a number of times), though I guess I understand the rationale of the ref: that Jefferson initiated the contact by invading the players cylinder, which didn't allow the offensive player to make a normal basketball play in swiveling the basketball from right to left. If I were a ref there, I would've called an offensive foul, though.

I completely agree that Grayson has the right to move his left arm within the vertical cylinder. I would simply respond that it did not appear that he was moving his arm in the cylinder (it sure appeared to be outside the cylinder to me), nor did it appear that he was attempting to make a normal basketball play, unless "pushing the defender away to create space" is a normal basketball play.

In any event, I am done arguing this call. I didn't even notice the travel in real time, and I think my own fanbase has overreacted greatly to that play and the refs in general. But I am not going to go the complete other direction and say it was a foul, either.

You shouldn't, though. According to the rulebook, that was a defensive foul on Amile. Rules exists for a reason.

I'm also done discussing the play after this post. ("Hallelujah," everyone says!)

My final point is this: the dominant feature of this game-winning play really IS Shayok's non-vertical arms, which cause a bunch of trickle-down effects.

If Shayok had been straight up and down Wendell Carter-style (like you're supposed to be), then Grayson might have shot a floater or perhaps a short jumpshot. But because Shayok's arms violated Grayson's vertical space, Grayson had to bring the ball over to his right side for an awkward shot in order to avoid Shayok's illegal arms. The act of bringing the ball to the right side to shoot (and also the clear out with Grayson's left arm) takes time. Those movements consume precious milliseconds that wouldn't have been consumed if he had just shot over the top. In other words, if Shayok had been straight up and down, Grayson doesn't even travel. He would've released a shot over the top before his right foot hit the ground instead of being forced to use time-consuming movements while airborne.

I know I've basically created a meme at this point. ("Hey, did you hear what caused MH370 to disappear?" "Yeah, Marial Shayok's illegal non-vertical arms, those bastards!"). But seriously, Shayok's non-vertical arms caused everything in that play, including a foul.


https://thumbs.gfycat.com/UnluckyCrispCrayfish-size_restricted.gif

[uh_no]

Shayok's non-vertical arms caused everything in that play, including a foul.


Thank you Shayok, for giving duke the win :D :D

[BobBender]

you comment about UVA having a "lukewarm endorsement from Bilas" is just overwhelmingly, gargantually wrong. Where did you get this notion? He's already resurrected his They Will Strangle You theme, and just yesterday compared their defense to a boa constrictor...gushing praise left and right. "I cannot recall a defensive team quite as good as Virginia" among his other comments yesterday...

Well, you sure pick the right sentences Bilas uttered to buttress your position. However, the next sentence he said is " For non-residents of Charlottesville, Va. , Virginia is the basketball equivalent of a sedative". Why didn't you include that?
So I guess my original premise is correct, the whole statement is faint praise, nothing more, nothing less

[budwom]

Well, you sure pick the right sentences Bilas uttered to buttress your position. However, the next sentence he said is " For non-residents of Charlottesville, Va. , Virginia is the basketball equivalent of a sedative". Why didn't you include that?
So I guess my original premise is correct, the whole statement is faint praise, nothing more, nothing less

You're not making much sense here. The quote I pulled is from Bilas's "The Best Things I've Seen" Vol II, regarding men's hoops. Your initial assertion was a "lukewarm endorsement" of
Virginia by Bilas. That's not what he was doing at all. His subsequent comment about Virginia's style being a sedative was in NO WAY a "lukewarm endorsement," or faint praise. It's major praise in a column about major praise ("best things")
He's only noting that defensive basketball is a sedative to some fans.

[Bull City Proud]

Not being hyped much at all imo for 2 reasons.: Not televised on ESPN and UVA is not loved by aforementioned ESPN because of their style and lukewarm endorsement from Bilas, Jay Will, Myron Metcalf and most of the crew affiliated with ESPN. The narrative is their style is “ bad for the sport”. I disagree with that but ,hey, I like defense, what a concept!

ESPN has become a joke. You are correct about no hype, no ESPN. The world we live in for sports now unfortunately.

[Bull City Proud]

all you need to know is his arms weren't vertical and there was contact with the arms of the shooter. that's a foul. I understand your trying to rationalize it (god knows it happens so often here in the other direction...), but you're wrong here.

It was clearly a foul on UVA player before the possible travel.

[CDu]

You're not making much sense here. The quote I pulled is from Bilas's "The Best Things I've Seen" Vol II, regarding men's hoops. Your initial assertion was a "lukewarm endorsement" of
Virginia by Bilas. That's not what he was doing at all. His subsequent comment about Virginia's style being a sedative was in NO WAY a "lukewarm endorsement," or faint praise. It's major praise in a column about major praise ("best things")
He's only noting that defensive basketball is a sedative to some fans.

Correct. Bilas is saying they are sleep-inducing to watch for the casual fan, but that they are EXTREMELY good at basketball. That isn’t faint praise.

[Bull City Proud]

That slow-mo replay is a pretty good replay. It appears to me that Shayok was moving backwards towards his own baseline and trying to avoid contact while still contesting the shot. While his arms are not vertical, it appears that he does not touch Allen, at least until Allen takes his left arm off the ball, moves the ball solely into his right hand, and initiates the contact with his left arm flailing at Shayok, who is trying to move backwards and out of the way. Allen's left arm pushes off into Shayok, which clears some room for him to get the shot off with his right hand.

I am a UVa fan, and therefore admit that I am biased, but I am very confident that if the shoe were on the other foot, and I was able to watch that replay, I would admit that it should either be a no-call or a charge on the UVa player. That said, I admit that in real-time it appeared as if it could easily be a foul on Shayok.

Either way, this is just one play in a long game, and I doubt even 2% of college basketball refs would have realized it was a travel in real-time, and probably less than half of that 2% would have the guts to call it against the home team. Probably fewer than 1% of all refs would call a charge on the home team player for extending his off arm. After all, the refs did not call this one a travel, which was MUCH, MUCH worse, IMO. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0DWGOhNDVo

I also recognize that we are often the beneficiaries of the close calls in our favor at the JPJ (a large part of our ridiculously good record there the last 4-5 years or so), and therefore it is only fair that the close calls go against us when we are on the road.

Long story short, UVa had plenty of chances to win the game before that, and I am sure at least a few close calls went in our favor prior to the game-ender.

Looking forward to this weekend - should be a good one. My personal opinion is that this is the best team we have had since I was a little kid rooting for Sampson, narrowly edging out the Brogdon senior year team and the Brogdon junior year team. We just have more chess pieces for Bennett to use, especially defensively, and we are very experienced, especially our bigs.

Shayok was CLEARLY not moving backwards, he CLEARLY violated verticality and it was CLEARLY a foul. Grayson push off was reaction to getting hit and marginal contact at best. Refs only are suppose to call ILLEGAL contact. There are three types of contact, Incidental, Marginal and Illegal. Only illegal contact is penalized in basketball.

[Wahoo2000]

That's fair -- agree on both counts. Allen's foot coming down was almost impossible to spot in real-time, and un-reviewable on replay. Can't really blame anyone for that.

As for 1997 -- Duke benefitted from the ref's error. And thank you for recognizing that, while Duke benefitted from that error, we did not conspire to cause the error. I thought it was smart of Duke to try and push for a score before UVA could get organized on defense, but there was no way to know that would contribute to the ref's bungling things so badly. When the clock didn't start at the beginning of the play, they should have just stopped the play. It was the decision to start the clock mid-play that really screwed UVA -- now the play was official. Had it not started at all, they could have just replayed the last five seconds. We'd probably be screaming and comparing things to the 1972 Olympics, but it would have been more correct. Hartzel changing his story after-the-fact did not help. I understand, and I'd be mad too.

UVA is alright in my books. I admire the school and the basketball program. Let's hope for a great game on Saturday.

a) I never blame the opponent or get mad at them when the refs have a major screw-up... I get mad at the refs.

b) Agreed from my perspective as well. No issues with Duke other than really wanting to beat them, also hope for a strong showing from both teams, WHOEVER comes out on top.

[Wahoo2000]

Shayok was CLEARLY not moving backwards, he CLEARLY violated verticality and it was CLEARLY a foul. Grayson push off was reaction to getting hit and marginal contact at best. Refs only are suppose to call ILLEGAL contact. There are three types of contact, Incidental, Marginal and Illegal. Only illegal contact is penalized in basketball.

I don't think either of you will convince the other of your viewpoint, and there are probably cases to be made for both sides. Just being inside a player's vertical cylinder doesn't mean the offensive player can initiate any contact he wants and that automatically makes it a foul on the defender. (If Shayok was a little closer and Allen threw an elbow and hit Shayok in the face, I don't think that would be called a foul on the defense.) Similarly, you can argue that there is clear contact between the two on the drive and THAT should be a clear foul (though one could argue it didn't meet a standard of severity of contact - did either player get an advantage?). It's pretty debatable both ways, despite both parties' insistence that their side is clearly 100% right.

In the end, no calls on EVERYTHING is probably somewhat fair, given that Allen still had to convert and INCREDIBLY difficult shot to get the win. Despite the bang-bang miss on the travel (or fouls), it feels fair enough.

[elvis14]

UVa gets called for the second(tied) fewest fouls per game in D1 hoops at 13.9/game.
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/286/p1

Yeah, there's a big difference between a team that doesn't foul much and a team that isn't called much.


Virginia reminds me a bit of Butler when they were going to back to back championships. They play a very physical defense and force the refs to make the call. Eventually the calls stop.


Playing physical defense and getting an extreme number of no-calls shouldn't go together. When a player comes off a pick and the defense hedges, if the defender bumps the guy with the ball coming off the pick, it's a blocking foul. Every time we play UVA I end up yelling at the TV over this one single no-call....over and over and over again. It's a foul. Call it.

They play good defense without the extreme number of no-calls. They don't need the help.

[Bull City Proud]

Yeah, there's a big difference between a team that doesn't foul much and a team that isn't called much.



Playing physical defense and getting an extreme number of no-calls shouldn't go together. When a player comes off a pick and the defense hedges, if the defender bumps the guy with the ball coming off the pick, it's a blocking foul. Every time we play UVA I end up yelling at the TV over this one single no-call...over and over and over again. It's a foul. Call it.

They play good defense without the extreme number of no-calls. They don't need the help.

Rule of thumb for referees. Physical defensive team vs finesse team, don’t allow physical to get away with contact on perimeter or on a shooter. Physical vs physical let them play their normal style. Finesse vs finesse it’s most times play on ala soccer.

It’s drilled in our heads by Bilas and others that UVA is this great defensive power and the end result is they get away committing a lot of fouls that aren’t called. UVA philosophy seems to be like the Seattle Seahawks defensive backs, the refs can’t call all the fouls we commit so be aggressive.

If the refs call all the fouls committed Bennett(very good coach by the way ) will complain constantly to the refs. Then human nature comes in , the refs call less fouls on UVA. That is the way it works in the real world unfortunately.

Letting UVA and WVA and other physical in your face defense get a decided advantage in the game. Basketball is finesse and skill sport. It’s not suppose to be officiated like football.

[duketaylor]

I'll be watching the game at the Short Pump Pour House (Short Pump outside of Richmond) Saturday with several Duke fans and several UVA fans, feel free to join us.

It will be fun, for sure.

I've enjoyed reading this thread and expect an excellent game from both sides.

[indy1duke]

Why are we bothering to play this game? Maybe we should just wave the white flag and move on to play the depleted Notre Dame team. Comments from DBR posters upthread suggest that we are playing one of the greatest teams of all-time -- think Cavaliers, only 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, well, at least one of the great defensive teams of all-time which has a good offense.

Raise your hand if you predicted UVa to be #2 in the country and undefeated in the ACC at this point in the season. I thought they would be in the middle of the pack and laughed when one of the sports writers picked them to win the ACC. Now if UVa finishes the season undefeated in the ACC, or even goes on to win the ACC, it raises an interesting question. Can anyone recall a team with this level of talent being so successful? Great teams have great talent or at least one great player. I looked at NBA Draft.net and observed no Virginia players listed over the next two drafts. UVa is achieving this level of success without any great player. This is simply amazing. I am very impressed with Bennett and his system. I suspect that if this team continues to achieve greatness that one or more of its players will be drafted by the NBA.

Now as for Saturday's game the Duke coaches will prepare Bagley and Carter for the post double team. It will be a question of execution. I take solace that we have won 8 out of the last 10 games against Virginia. I imagine our team will be incredibly psyched for the game. After all we are really an underdog if you believe the home court is worth more than 3 points.

[Spanarkel]

Why are we bothering to play this game? Maybe we should just wave the white flag and move on to play the depleted Notre Dame team. Comments from DBR posters upthread suggest that we are playing one of the greatest teams of all-time -- think Cavaliers, only 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, well, at least one of the great defensive teams of all-time which has a good offense.

Raise your hand if you predicted UVa to be #2 in the country and undefeated in the ACC at this point in the season. I thought they would be in the middle of the pack and laughed when one of the sports writers picked them to win the ACC. Now if UVa finishes the season undefeated in the ACC, or even goes on to win the ACC, it raises an interesting question. Can anyone recall a team with this level of talent being so successful? Great teams have great talent or at least one great player. I looked at NBA Draft.net and observed no Virginia players listed over the next two drafts. UVa is achieving this level of success without any great player. This is simply amazing. I am very impressed with Bennett and his system. I suspect that if this team continues to achieve greatness that one or more of its players will be drafted by the NBA.

Now as for Saturday's game the Duke coaches will prepare Bagley and Carter for the post double team. It will be a question of execution. I take solace that we have won 8 out of the last 10 games against Virginia. I imagine our team will be incredibly psyched for the game. After all we are really an underdog if you believe the home court is worth more than 3 points.

De'Andre Hunter is an elite talent and hopefully won't blow up between 2-4pm tomorrow at CIS. Let's go, Duke!

[WVDUKEFAN]

As good as Bagley, Carter, Grayson and Gary have been all season, I think this is a game where Tre Jones is going to be a factor on both sides of the ball. He has to defend well and intelligently distribute the ball on the offensive side. No 3's from WC or Bags, either. No one in Virginia's lineup is averaging more than 15 points a game. Their guards are "OK", but both have the potential to go off and have a big game, and Bags and Carter have to keep Mr. Man Bun in check as well.. The whole team shoots well from the line. I like Virginia and Coach Bennett. They are a solid team that is well coached.

We have way more talent and if we step up defensively, a double digit win isn't out of the question.

[jv001]

As good as Bagley, Carter, Grayson and Gary have been all season, I think this is a game where Tre Jones is going to be a factor on both sides of the ball. He has to defend well and intelligently distribute the ball on the offensive side. No 3's from WC or Bags, either. No one in Virginia's lineup is averaging more than 15 points a game. Their guards are "OK", but both have the potential to go off and have a big game, and Bags and Carter have to keep Mr. Man Bun in check as well.. The whole team shoots well from the line. I like Virginia and Coach Bennett. They are a solid team that is well coached.

We have way more talent and if we step up defensively, a double digit win isn't out of the question.

Duval?? GoDuke!

[WVDUKEFAN]

As good as Bagley, Carter, Grayson and Gary have been all season, I think this is a game where Tre Jones is going to be a factor on both sides of the ball. He has to defend well and intelligently distribute the ball on the offensive side. No 3's from WC or Bags, either. No one in Virginia's lineup is averaging more than 15 points a game. Their guards are "OK", but both have the potential to go off and have a big game, and Bags and Carter have to keep Mr. Man Bun in check as well.. The whole team shoots well from the line. I like Virginia and Coach Bennett. They are a solid team that is well coached.

We have way more talent and if we step up defensively, a double digit win isn't out of the question.

Duval?? GoDuke!

Yep. Duhhhh. Sorry. I'll fix my original post. I haven't finished my first cup.

[Troublemaker]

Pomeroy has Duke +1 today while Sagarin has Duke -3. I would set the line at Duke -1 based on those. My snarky O/U would be 89, but I think 120-125 is more realistic. We rarely score 70 on UVA, and I don't see this team breaking that margin for one opponent only.

Those guesses are going to be relatively way off when Vegas releases the lines later today. You have to take into account public perception, which will be on Duke and the over. Vegas isn't trying to make fair lines; they're trying to make money, and the way to do that is to know the tendencies of the betting public and punish them by making bettors pay a premium on the lines.

Duke -4.5 (or 5) and O/U of 136ish would be my guess.

[Troublemaker]

Observations and Questions

Why are we bothering to play this game? Maybe we should just wave the white flag and move on to play the depleted Notre Dame team. Comments from DBR posters upthread suggest that we are playing one of the greatest teams of all-time -- think Cavaliers, only 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, well, at least one of the great defensive teams of all-time which has a good offense.

Like I wrote upthread, I believe almost all Duke fans posting in this thread think Duke will win, myself included. I don't see the problem with pointing out that, at least statistically, the bolded statement has been true so far this season. We also have some friendly UVA visitors, and showing their team respect is a good thing to do.



Raise your hand if you predicted UVa to be #2 in the country and undefeated in the ACC at this point in the season. I thought they would be in the middle of the pack and laughed when one of the sports writers picked them to win the ACC. Now if UVa finishes the season undefeated in the ACC, or even goes on to win the ACC, it raises an interesting question. Can anyone recall a team with this level of talent being so successful? Great teams have great talent or at least one great player. I looked at NBA Draft.net and observed no Virginia players listed over the next two drafts. UVa is achieving this level of success without any great player. This is simply amazing. I am very impressed with Bennett and his system. I suspect that if this team continues to achieve greatness that one or more of its players will be drafted by the NBA.

They're not bereft of NBA talent. Hunter and Guy should be NBA players. Hall could catch on eventually through a non-traditional route (D-league or Europe first); he shoots well and plays defense. Diakite is like Javin DeLaurier; raw but a freak athlete who could make the league if he develops. And little-used big man Jay Huff should be an NBA player in time with his ability to shoot the ball.



Now as for Saturday's game the Duke coaches will prepare Bagley and Carter for the post double team. It will be a question of execution. I take solace that we have won 8 out of the last 10 games against Virginia. I imagine our team will be incredibly psyched for the game. After all we are really an underdog if you believe the home court is worth more than 3 points.

We will be favored by more than homecourt when the line gets released later.

[budwom]

seems to me that most knowledgeable Duke fans see UVA as a very tough test as they're a solid team, nothing more, nothing less.

[dtl5g]

Why are we bothering to play this game? Maybe we should just wave the white flag and move on to play the depleted Notre Dame team. Comments from DBR posters upthread suggest that we are playing one of the greatest teams of all-time -- think Cavaliers, only 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, well, at least one of the great defensive teams of all-time which has a good offense.

Raise your hand if you predicted UVa to be #2 in the country and undefeated in the ACC at this point in the season. I thought they would be in the middle of the pack and laughed when one of the sports writers picked them to win the ACC. Now if UVa finishes the season undefeated in the ACC, or even goes on to win the ACC, it raises an interesting question. Can anyone recall a team with this level of talent being so successful? Great teams have great talent or at least one great player. I looked at NBA Draft.net and observed no Virginia players listed over the next two drafts. UVa is achieving this level of success without any great player. This is simply amazing. I am very impressed with Bennett and his system. I suspect that if this team continues to achieve greatness that one or more of its players will be drafted by the NBA.

Now as for Saturday's game the Duke coaches will prepare Bagley and Carter for the post double team. It will be a question of execution. I take solace that we have won 8 out of the last 10 games against Virginia. I imagine our team will be incredibly psyched for the game. After all we are really an underdog if you believe the home court is worth more than 3 points.

[Raises hand] I believed we (UVa) would be a top 5 team in the country this year. I did not think we would be very good last year, yet we were ranked #8 preseason for some stupid reason. This year we were completely unranked. :confused: The reality is that the pollsters only take a cursory look at UVa. They saw London leaving, and Shayok, Reuter and Thompson transferring out and figured we'd step back. Of course, Shayok and Reuter were the two least efficient players on the team last year on both sides of the floor, and saw the writing on the wall in terms of lack of playing time. Thompson was a very solid and efficient role player and we could've used him this year, but his loss just meant that Guy, Jerome, and Hunter would get more minutes, and all three of them are much more talented than Thompson, if we're being honest (though Thompson is having an excellent senior season at Western Kentucky right now).

As for our level of talent, we actually have more talent now than ever. At least if you rely on the recruiting services available online. The eye test certainly tells me that we have more talent now as well.

And as for nbadraft.net, it is clueless.

Here's the top 100 NBA draft picks from nbadraft.net from February 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160216043634/http://www.nbadraft.net:80/ranking/bigboard Can you see who is completely left out of the top 100 potential NBA draft picks? A senior Malcolm Brogdon, who was already two-time first team all-ACC, was well on his way to being a three-time 1st team all-ACC player, ACC player of the year, and ACC DPOY, and who ended up being rookie of the year in the NBA in 2016-17.

Here's the top 100 NBA draft picks from nbadraft.net from February 2014: https://web.archive.org/web/20140209011700/http://nbadraft.net/ranking/bigboard Who's absent from that list? A senior Joe Harris, who went 33rd overall, is a rotation player playing very well for the Nets, and is going to get paid this off-season when he is an unrestricted FA.

Here's the top 100 NBA draft picks from nbadraft.net from January 2012: https://web.archive.org/web/20120209055157/http://nbadraft.net/ranking/bigboard Who's absent from that list? A senior Mike Scott, who went #43 overall, and has been a rotation player in the NBA his entire career, and is doing quite well for the Wizards right now.

Are you sensing a theme for the way nbadraft.net values UVa players? Excuse me if I take their valuation of our current players with a grain of salt.

Why is that? Probably the limited per game stats, perceived lack of athleticism, relatively low recruiting rankings out of high school, etc. But the reality is that the NBA DOES value defense, they DO value players who are well-rounded, smart, and team-first guys, etc. And UVa players are humble, work hard, and accept their roles on the team (which all but the stars need to learn how to do in the NBA - many can't accept limited roles). Which is why guys like those three are succeeding. And guys who have successful careers at UVa like Hall, Wilkins, Jerome, Guy, Diakite, Hunter, Huff (assuming he is able to pull it together and have a good UVa career, which I am confident he will) will all get looks and a chance to prove themselves in the G league/summer league if not become draft picks. These guys are simply more talented than guys that led us to championships in the past like Perrantes, Akil Mitchell, Darion Atkins, etc. Perhaps even more talented than Harris, Brogdon, Scott, Perrantes, Tobey, etc.

I believe DeAndre Hunter has a good chance of being an NBA lottery pick, for instance. First one like him we've had on our team who has actually had prototypical NBA size and athleticism combined with NBA ball skills (though he still needs to improve to get to that point).

In my opinion, we probably have at least 3-4 NBA rotation players on this team right now, and it very well might end up being more.

Our guys are used to people selling them short, calling them untalented, calling us a system team, but the reality is that Bennett is an excellent evaluator of talent, and then he develops it. These guys actually ARE really good players that would do well on other teams as well.

Sorry to make this War and Peace. I know a lot of Duke fans like UVA and root for us when we aren't playing Duke. My guess is this is because our teams from the last 5 years remind us all a little bit of the Duke teams from the 80s and 90s (not quite as talented, but similar in makeup). Now we just need to have some success in March/April and maybe we can really start the comparisons.

[CDu]

[Raises hand]I believe DeAndre Hunter has a good chance of being an NBA lottery pick, for instance. First one like him we've had on our team who has actually had prototypical NBA size and athleticism.

At best he is second, actually. Justin Anderson came before him. No question he had prototypical NBA size and athleticism.

I pretty much agree with the rest though.

[Troublemaker]

To win this game, Duke needs to dig into our vast bag of decoy actions on offense. Let's start with one that we used last season with success against UVA, the decoy PNR. (Yay, I get to reuse a couple of GIFs)

Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/BestDaringGangesdolphin)

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BestDaringGangesdolphin-size_restricted.gif

Grayson has no intention of using this very high pick by Harry. Duke's design was to suck out UVA's big man and then make a quick pass to the wing so Duke could enjoy a momentary 4-on-3 behind the play. Matt, who receives the pass on the wing, could've also skipped a pass to Jayson on the other side for a wide-open three but elects to hit an open Harry in the post who then draws a foul.


Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/UnknownForcefulBichonfrise)

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/UnknownForcefulBichonfrise-size_restricted.gif

Same concept here even though this is a side PNR with Matt and Grayson reversing roles. Matt has no intention of using the pick but sucks in UVA's big man and quickly gets the ball to Grayson to the side. This generates the momentary 4-on-3, and like the play above, UVA's weakside defender has to help down on the roller. Instead of hitting the post like in the play above, Grayson does skip the pass to a wide-open Jayson.

[dtl5g]

At best he is second, actually. Justin Anderson came before him. No question he had prototypical NBA size and athleticism.

I pretty much agree with the rest though.

Yeah, I edited it to include "NBA ball skills" once I re-read my post.

Justin definitely had NBA athleticism from the beginning, though his handle is questionable if not bad for a 3, and his jump shot is a little iffy. He is strictly a 3 and D guy in the NBA. He was smart to jump to the NBA after shooting 40+% from 3 his junior year. If he stayed in college and had then shot 29% his senior year, he would've fallen out of the first round. He probably was slightly overrated by NBA draft junkies, though he is still getting PT for the Sixers.

Hunter is a much more offensively polished and skilled player than Justin probably even is now (and certainly much more so than Justin's second year with UVa), and is a little bit longer. He probably is a slightly better 1v1 defender as well. Hunter hasn't shot great from 3 this year, but his jump shot looks good and he was a shooter in high school. He is going to blow people away in a couple years.

[DarkstarWahoo]

At best he is second, actually. Justin Anderson came before him. No question he had prototypical NBA size and athleticism.

I pretty much agree with the rest though.
Watching the way he's played in the pros, I'd say Brogdon qualifies, too. He wasn't as springy in college as he's shown in the league, but he's 6-5 and strong as hell. He defended 1-4 extremely well in college and really was only missing the leaping ability, which he showed plenty of his rookie year. I honestly wonder if the defensive effort he put in wore him down.

He's a couple of inches shorter than Hunter and doesn't quite have the "wow factor" Anderson had, but otherwise, he's their equal.

[dtl5g]

Watching the way he's played in the pros, I'd say Brogdon qualifies, too. He wasn't as springy in college as he's shown in the league, but he's 6-5 and strong as hell. He defended 1-4 extremely well in college and really was only missing the leaping ability, which he showed plenty of his rookie year. I honestly wonder if the defensive effort he put in wore him down.

He's a couple of inches shorter than Hunter and doesn't quite have the "wow factor" Anderson had, but otherwise, he's their equal.

I would agree with you, but there is zero question that the reason he wasn't even in NBAdraft.net's top 100 potential draft picks a mere month before the end of his UVa career is because of his perceived lack of athleticism. The same reason he wasn't a consensus top-100 recruit out of high school.

He did have a few facial dunks in college (at least two vs. Pitt), and he at least showed on the defensive side of the ball that he could hang against anybody. His defensive performance vs. Duke in 2016 was legendary.

[DarkstarWahoo]

I would agree with you, but there is zero question that the reason he wasn't even in NBAdraft.net's top 100 potential draft picks a mere month before the end of his UVa career is because of his perceived lack of athleticism. The same reason he wasn't a consensus top-100 recruit out of high school.

He did have a few facial dunks in college (at least two vs. Pitt), and he at least showed on the defensive side of the ball that he could hang against anybody. His defensive performance vs. Duke in 2016 was legendary.

Him being roughly 45 years old when he exhausted his eligibility probably had something to do with it, too.

[CDu]

Why are we bothering to play this game? Maybe we should just wave the white flag and move on to play the depleted Notre Dame team. Comments from DBR posters upthread suggest that we are playing one of the greatest teams of all-time -- think Cavaliers, only 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, well, at least one of the great defensive teams of all-time which has a good offense.

Nobody is giving up in this thread. We can note that UVa is a phenomenal defensive team and arguably playing better than us right now while also thinking we will win. They are the best team left on our schedule, and comfortably so. It will be a very tough game. One that I think we'll win, but far from confidently so.

Also, it seems weird/contradictory to post the snarky first paragraph and then follow it up with a very complimentary paragraph about UVa, and then a paragraph suggesting we are the underdog.


Now as for Saturday's game the Duke coaches will prepare Bagley and Carter for the post double team. It will be a question of execution. I take solace that we have won 8 out of the last 10 games against Virginia. I imagine our team will be incredibly psyched for the game. After all we are really an underdog if you believe the home court is worth more than 3 points.


Those guesses are going to be relatively way off when Vegas releases the lines later today. You have to take into account public perception, which will be on Duke and the over. Vegas isn't trying to make fair lines; they're trying to make money, and the way to do that is to know the tendencies of the betting public and punish them by making bettors pay a premium on the lines.

Duke -4.5 (or 5) and O/U of 136ish would be my guess.

There is a difference between the betting line and the predicted outcome. As you have previously noted, the betting line isn't intended to mimic the outcome - it is intended to draw bets. The predicted outcome by Pomeroy and TRank is a 1-point Duke win. That would suggest that on a neutral floor we are the underdog. And I am pretty sure that is what indy1 was referring to.

The betting line is irrelevant for that purpose - it just shows who bettors think will win.

[dtl5g]

Those guesses are going to be relatively way off when Vegas releases the lines later today. You have to take into account public perception, which will be on Duke and the over. Vegas isn't trying to make fair lines; they're trying to make money, and the way to do that is to know the tendencies of the betting public and punish them by making bettors pay a premium on the lines.

Duke -4.5 (or 5) and O/U of 136ish would be my guess.

FWIW, Virginia has covered the spread 13 out of 17 times this season, and the UNDER has been the correct bet 13 out of 17 times as well.

I think it'll be around Duke -4, with O/U of 130 or so. 136 would be a bit too high, IMO, and would probably be a fairly safe bet on the under, unless the game goes to OT. You are right that the lines are set based on public perception, but most people gambling on over/under know what the trends are, and the trends on UVa games are that the under is covering (7 out of the last 8), and often very, very easily.

This game will likely be in the 60s unless one team or the other plays really well on offense.

[Troublemaker]

Because UVA shuts down the inside so well, we'll probably need Gary and Grayson to hit their threes to win. Can we free them up for open threes against this UVA defense like we do against other opponents? We'll soon find out.

Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/LargeScaryBasilisk).

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/LargeScaryBasilisk-size_restricted.gif

The play we ran for Gary against Miami to get a strangehold on the game was just stringing together 3 actions. When you string together actions and hide your final intention, the defense is more likely to make a mistake. #1, a perfunctory high ball screen that the Miami guard fights over. That flows into #2, a cross screen in the post by Gary for Wendell to post up. This is where the mistake is made. Gary's defender gets caught looking at Wendell's post up, which is where he expects the ball to be delivered. Instead, action #3, Gary pops out to the 3-pt line while Marvin sets a down screen. Open three. Strangehold taken.


Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/UnfoldedAnchoredHarborporpoise).

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/UnfoldedAnchoredHarborporpoise-size_restricted.gif

Here, again, is just more misdirection and stringing together of actions. #1, Grayson hands the ball off to Alex. #2, Wendell sets a side ball screen for Alex. The mistake is made here, as Grayson's defender gets caught looking at the side ball screen instead of following Grayson across the baseline. #3, ball reversal into the corner. Splash. Will UVA defenders make these same mistakes? We should aim to find out. Against a defense with an 81 defensive efficiency, we must run non-stagnant offense, string together actions, and apply misdirection.

[Troublemaker]

There is a difference between the betting line and the predicted outcome. As you have previously noted, the betting line isn't intended to mimic the outcome - it is intended to draw bets. The predicted outcome by Pomeroy and TRank is a 1-point Duke win. That would suggest that on a neutral floor we are the underdog. And I am pretty sure that is what indy1 was referring to.

The betting line is irrelevant for that purpose - it just shows who bettors think will win.

That's fine, but my post you quoted was a reply to someone else who was specifically talking about the betting line.


FWIW, Virginia has covered the spread 13 out of 17 times this season, and the UNDER has been the correct bet 13 out of 17 times as well.

I think it'll be around Duke -4, with O/U of 130 or so. 136 would be a bit too high, IMO, and would probably be a fairly safe bet on the under, unless the game goes to OT. You are right that the lines are set based on public perception, but most people gambling on over/under know what the trends are, and the trends on UVa games are that the under is covering (7 out of the last 8), and often very, very easily.

This game will likely be in the 60s unless one team or the other plays really well on offense.

We'll find out later. I mean, Duke's record on overs is pretty similar to UVA's record on unders. They have to split the difference and then shade more to the over because of public tendencies.

[CDu]

That's fine, but my post you quoted was a reply to someone else who was specifically talking about the betting line.

Sorry, I grabbed the wrong quote. This was the quote I meant to grab, where you are specifically responding to indy1.


We will be favored by more than homecourt when the line gets released later.

[dtl5g]

We'll find out later. I mean, Duke's record on overs is pretty similar to UVA's record on unders. They have to split the difference and then shade more to the over because of public tendencies.

Wow - just looked at Duke's numbers. Lowest O/U so far this year has been 146.5.

Based on where the O/U numbers have been for Duke, and how Duke's games have gone, I would have to agree that your number is more likely to be closer. It might even be 138-140ish or so.

Nonetheless, the smart money will be on the under.

[Neals384]

Because UVA shuts down the inside so well, we'll probably need Gary and Grayson to hit their threes to win. Can we free them up for open threes against this UVA defense like we do against other opponents? We'll soon find out.Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/LargeScaryBasilisk).https://thumbs.gfycat.com/LargeScaryBasilisk-size_restricted.gifThe play we ran for Gary against Miami to get a strangehold on the game was just stringing together 3 actions. When you string together actions and hide your final intention, the defense is more likely to make a mistake. #1, a perfunctory high ball screen that the Miami guard fights over. That flows into #2, a cross screen in the post by Gary for Wendell to post up. This is where the mistake is made. Gary's defender gets caught looking at Wendell's post up, which is where he expects the ball to be delivered. Instead, action #3, Gary pops out to the 3-pt line while Marvin sets a down screen. Open three. Strangehold taken.Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/UnfoldedAnchoredHarborporpoise).https://thumbs.gfycat.com/UnfoldedAnchoredHarborporpoise-size_restricted.gifHere, again, is just more misdirection and stringing together of actions. #1, Grayson hands the ball off to Alex. #2, Wendell sets a side ball screen for Alex. The mistake is made here, as Grayson's defender gets caught looking at the side ball screen instead of following Grayson across the baseline. #3, ball reversal into the corner. Splash. Will UVA defenders make these same mistakes? We should aim to find out. Against a defense with an 81 defensive efficiency, we must run non-stagnant offense, string together actions, and apply misdirection.

good stuff, thank you

[dukejim1]

I feel good about this game. I have to believe we can score >70 against them at home unless we are 0for on threes and Duval plays like he did against Wake. Even then, Grayson can manage the point against a team that doesn't try to pressure. I believe the shots will be tougher than most games but our offensive rebounding will pay dividends that we haven't experienced in previous years. We need the best big duo in the country to stay out of foul trouble. Virginia has only scored >70 in one power 5 game this year. Go devils in their push towards the conference lead.

[Troublemaker]

If we must use a postup-oriented offense against UVA, which I don't recommend, the postups can't be the first and only action. Once again, we must string together actions and misdirect. I'll give examples in the next post.

But, for this post, let's take a look at simple, stagnant postups. I hope one day GIF'ing will be a cooperative effort, and so I'm not going to reinvent the wheel when fellow GIF'er "House G" has already provided a few good examples of simple postups below. What I refer to as simple postups is when Marvin and Wendell run down the court, park their butts in the post, and ask for the ball. There's no misdirection. There's no stringing together of different actions. They just put their man on their backs and wait for a post entry.


After watching the Miami game, I was interested in what is involved in feeding the post. With two great big men, this becomes an important part of our offense. Like many things in basketball, there is a lot more to it than I appreciated. As you might expect, a more experienced player like Allen is better at it than some of the freshmen. There are nuances that I never considered such as the angle of the pass, whether the passer is right- handed or can pass equally well with each hand, and so on. The position of the low post man is also important. In general, I don’t think you want to feed them too far from the basket. Is it better to position Bagley on the right since he is left-handed—or does it matter? Our low post game seems much more effective with two bigs down low because they have trouble double-teaming one of them. Here is an article and a video discussing some of this (and I apologize in advance for the quality of my videos :()
https://otterbasketball.com/how-to-feed-the-post/
Here are some ill-advised post passes from the game:
https://gfycat.com/DopeyFlamboyantFunnelweaverspider
https://gfycat.com/PerfectOldLeech
https://gfycat.com/SmoggyIncompatibleBrant
And here’s how it’s done:
https://gfycat.com/AccomplishedIncomparableHypsilophodon
(Of course it’s easier when the guy guarding you is 5’5” lol).

If we use simple postups against UVA, their double-teams will eat us up and spit out our bones.

Look at the video that House G originally posted about the Pack Line. I've primed the video to show examples of their double-teams on simple postups: https://youtu.be/9xicOzvbB6A?t=2m41s

Look at how difficult it is for even veteran big men to find the open man when double-teamed by UVA. Even veteran big men will make misreads of where they should go with the ball and pass into turnovers or near-turnovers frequently against UVA. When UVA doubles big-to-big, it's not like you can just throw to the opposite post for a wide-open dunk; their guards will rotate down to take that away. Can our freshmen make the right passes? We'll perhaps see.

Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/SomberAggressiveChihuahua).

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/SomberAggressiveChihuahua-size_restricted.gif


Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/QuaintRealChevrotain).

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/QuaintRealChevrotain-size_restricted.gif

[CameronDuke]

Looking forward to tomorrow more than any game so far this year maybe except the Michigan State game. After Duke, I follow Virginia more and pull for Virginia more than any other ACC program. And boy, do they have a program going in Charlottesville now. Tony Bennett is class. Nothing else needs to be said. He is pure class and the way he can get players, highly recruited or otherwise, to buy in to the pack line defensive scheme while also running an effective, deliberate, efficient offense consistently year after year is commendable. Predictions for tomorrow? I've analyzed all the stats until my eyes crossed. However, it's simply too difficult for me to predict how either team will attempt to throw the other off their normal tendencies. It's a toss up and I won't be surprised who wins. Both teams as I see it will be a 2 seed at worst in the NCAAT so that's my only prediction.

Honest questions for Virginia fans. Well, first of all, welcome. Based on my many experiences discussing college basketball with various fan bases, Virginia fans typically are very in tune with the dynamics of the game and have high basketball IQs. Great, great fans and a dynamite school. But my question - how long do you all see Tony Bennett staying at Virginia? Is he a lifer? If not, what job is his dream job? I've heard Wisconsin. Madison is just a phenomenal city for those that have never been and Wisconsin is a fabulous school. I think it's very comparable to Charlottesville and Virginia. But I find it hard to see Tony Bennett leaving what he's built at Virginia. I'd be interested to hear Virginia fans explain if they think he's their guy, their lifer, dare I say in a whisper, their next Coach K? Young guy, good looking, articulate, intelligent, system is heavily predicated on defense, at arguably a top 10 school nationally public or private, in arguably one of the most beautiful cities in the country in Charlottesville...don't see how he could top that. I assume he's compensated financially pretty commensurate with most other P5 program coaches. I think if he is your guy at Virginia, the guy could one day break many of Coach K's records in the ACC. Someone smarter than me, could you run the numbers and in ACC play only, show what Coach K's record in the ACC was at this point in his time at Duke vs Bennett? Gotta be pretty similar to me. Coach K likely made it to a final four quicker than Bennett and I realize Virginia's NCAAT performance has been slightly above mediocre at best under Bennett, but in ACC play, the guy is on a historic run. He is a high level coach.

[dtl5g]

But my question - how long do you all see Tony Bennett staying at Virginia? Is he a lifer? If not, what job is his dream job?

Hopefully. The rumors from supposed insiders are that he wouldn't leave for another college job, but might consider an NBA opportunity. He and his family are happy in Charlottesville (who wouldn't be?), but his kids will be graduating high school in 4-5 years, so who knows after that?


I've heard Wisconsin. Madison is just a phenomenal city for those that have never been and Wisconsin is a fabulous school. I think it's very comparable to Charlottesville and Virginia. But I find it hard to see Tony Bennett leaving what he's built at Virginia.

His wife is from the south and apparently would not want to live somewhere that far north. Also, Wisconsin canned his father, and he did not play at Wisconsin, and it would be a step down in leagues, as well as ability to recruit (probably), so I doubt he would leave UVa to go to Wisconsin.


I'd be interested to hear Virginia fans explain if they think he's their guy, their lifer, dare I say in a whisper, their next Coach K? Young guy, good looking, articulate, intelligent, system is heavily predicated on defense, at arguably a top 10 school nationally public or private, in arguably one of the most beautiful cities in the country in Charlottesville...don't see how he could top that. I assume he's compensated financially pretty commensurate with most other P5 program coaches.

From your lips to God's ears. I don't think he will leave over money. Yes, he is compensated well, and we would be able to put a lot more on the table if it were about money. For Bennett, I really don't think it's about money. He's making more than he needs, and I don't think that's a huge factor in his decision-making. Texas could probably dangle $8million a year and I would bet he would turn it down.


think if he is your guy at Virginia, the guy could one day break many of Coach K's records in the ACC. Someone smarter than me, could you run the numbers and in ACC play only, show what Coach K's record in the ACC was at this point in his time at Duke vs Bennett? Gotta be pretty similar to me. Coach K likely made it to a final four quicker than Bennett and I realize Virginia's NCAAT performance has been slightly above mediocre at best under Bennett, but in ACC play, the guy is on a historic run. He is a high level coach.

Coach K started at Duke at the age of 33 and is now 70, and is not really showing signs of slowing down. Tony Bennett started at UVa when he was 40. In the 1980s when K started coaching, there were only 14 ACC conference games, and now there are 18 ACC games per year (not counting ACC tournament). So, there's approximately 20% more games each year these days. However, K started coaching in the ACC much earlier, and appears likely to keep coaching late into his life.

Long story short: even if Bennett stays at UVa until he retires, and continues the pace he has set in the ACC, it is very hard to imagine he could catch K, either in overall wins, or in ACC wins. K has won over 1000 games total, and over 400 ACC wins. Even at 14 ACC wins a year on average for Bennett (which might be optimistic), it would take a total of 22 years from today for him to catch K (right now, K is leading in ACC wins 404-96). And that is assuming K retires today. Bennett will be 71 years old 22 years from now.

[uh_no]

If we must use a postup-oriented offense against UVA, which I don't recommend, the postups can't be the first and only action. Once again, we must string together actions and misdirect. I'll give examples in the next post.

But, for this post, let's take a look at simple, stagnant postups. I hope one day GIF'ing will be a cooperative effort, and so I'm not going to reinvent the wheel when fellow GIF'er "House G" has already provided a few good examples of simple postups below. What I refer to as simple postups is when Marvin and Wendell run down the court, park their butts in the post, and ask for the ball. There's no misdirection. There's no stringing together of different actions. They just put their man on their backs and wait for a post entry.



If we use simple postups against UVA, their double-teams will eat us up and spit out our bones.

Look at the video that House G originally posted about the Pack Line. I've primed the video to show examples of their double-teams on simple postups: https://youtu.be/9xicOzvbB6A?t=2m41s

Look at how difficult it is for even veteran big men to find the open man when double-teamed by UVA. Even veteran big men will make misreads of where they should go with the ball and pass into turnovers or near-turnovers frequently against UVA. When UVA doubles big-to-big, it's not like you can just throw to the opposite post for a wide-open dunk; their guards will rotate down to take that away. Can our freshmen make the right passes? We'll perhaps see.

Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/SomberAggressiveChihuahua).

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/SomberAggressiveChihuahua-size_restricted.gif


Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/QuaintRealChevrotain).

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/QuaintRealChevrotain-size_restricted.gif

in both cases, it shows the importance of the guards putting themselves in position where the bigs can get them the ball. If they're dedicating 3 people to the 2 bigs, someone's wide open on the line. The guards need to stay active after they get the ball down there ensuring they are in position to receive a pass if one of the bigs can't make a move.

[cato]

Thanks for the insight dtl5g. I hope Bennett stays right where he is. But wouldn’t it be something to see him run his defense with NBA athletes?

[CameronDuke]

Hopefully. The rumors from supposed insiders are that he wouldn't leave for another college job, but might consider an NBA opportunity. He and his family are happy in Charlottesville (who wouldn't be?), but his kids will be graduating high school in 4-5 years, so who knows after that?



His wife is from the south and apparently would not want to live somewhere that far north. Also, Wisconsin canned his father, and he did not play at Wisconsin, and it would be a step down in leagues, as well as ability to recruit (probably), so I doubt he would leave UVa to go to Wisconsin.



From your lips to God's ears. I don't think he will leave over money. Yes, he is compensated well, and we would be able to put a lot more on the table if it were about money. For Bennett, I really don't think it's about money. He's making more than he needs, and I don't think that's a huge factor in his decision-making. Texas could probably dangle $8million a year and I would bet he would turn it down.



Coach K started at Duke at the age of 33 and is now 70, and is not really showing signs of slowing down. Tony Bennett started at UVa when he was 40. In the 1980s when K started coaching, there were only 14 ACC conference games, and now there are 18 ACC games per year (not counting ACC tournament). So, there's approximately 20% more games each year these days. However, K started coaching in the ACC much earlier, and appears likely to keep coaching late into his life.

Long story short: even if Bennett stays at UVa until he retires, and continues the pace he has set in the ACC, it is very hard to imagine he could catch K, either in overall wins, or in ACC wins. K has won over 1000 games total, and over 400 ACC wins. Even at 14 ACC wins a year on average for Bennett (which might be optimistic), it would take a total of 22 years from today for him to catch K (right now, K is leading in ACC wins 404-96). And that is assuming K retires today. Bennett will be 71 years old 22 years from now.

Thanks for doing that. Makes you realize how special of a coach that Coach K is. In my lifetime, I guess I don't expect that record along with most of his records to be broken. Bennett to the NBA to coach there actually makes a lot more sense to me. I admittedly didn't even think of that. He played for the Hornets a bit if I recall. The program is kind of like Butler's was when Brad Stevens was there in that both played tough, hard nosed defense, had maybe 1-2 future NBA players in the program usually but other than that, tough hard nosed 3-4 star recruits, and look at Stevens now - killing it with the Celtics. Maybe a stretch but kind of like Iowa State's program when Fred Hoiberg was there. Hoiberg is only in his 3rd year with the Bulls and hasn't really lit it up yet in the NBA but he could if the Bulls stay patient with him. So thanks for that, I could actually see him going to the NBA when his kids graduate high school. I'm not sure he could get NBA players to run the pack line as effectively as the college kids he recruits when you factor in egos and what not of some professional athletes, but I guess it's possible. I'm sure he would probably alter his style and defensive alignments, too.

[dtl5g]

I'm not sure he could get NBA players to run the pack line as effectively as the college kids he recruits when you factor in egos and what not of some professional athletes, but I guess it's possible. I'm sure he would probably alter his style and defensive alignments, too.

It would be the ultimate challenge, I suppose. Hopefully Team USA lets him take the reins from time to time in the summer like Coach K has done, and that satisfies his urge to coach the best in the world.

The packline the way it is constructed would not work in the NBA, in my opinion. However, Bennett is not an idiot. He wouldn't try to run the packline the exact way it is currently constructed in a middle school program, and he wouldn't in an NBA program, either.

He has tweaked what his father did, both defensively and offensively, to maximize its effect in today's college basketball. He also tweaks his system depending on the talent he has from year to year, and makes lots of in-game adjustments.

I am very confident, however, that he would find a way to win in the NBA, as well as have those guys playing good defense. I also think he would be an excellent player evaluator for what his team needs. I sincerely hope we never find out whether he can make in the NBA or not, because if he leaves, I am not at all confident that we won't just slip back into mediocrity.

[Kedsy]

Someone smarter than me, could you run the numbers and in ACC play only, show what Coach K's record in the ACC was at this point in his time at Duke vs Bennett?

In Bennett's first 8.5 seasons (including first ACC 8 games of this season), his ACC record is 96-50 (.658). In K's first 8.5 seasons (including first 8 games of 1988-89), Coach K's ACC record was 62-58 (.517).

Still, the fact that Bennett's ACC record over that time period is way better than Coach K's does not mean a similar performance over the next 30 years is anywhere close to probable. Just for a couple quick examples, Terry Holland's ACC record in his first 8.5 seasons at Virginia (62-48, .564) and Dave Odom's ACC record in his first 8 seasons at Wake (72-52, .581) were both also much better than Coach K's first 8.5 seasons (though not as good as Bennett's), but neither of them came close to matching his record thereafter (and neither came close to his longevity, either). Not taking anything away from Tony, just saying there's not a lot of predictive value here.

[CameronDuke]

It would be the ultimate challenge, I suppose. Hopefully Team USA lets him take the reins from time to time in the summer like Coach K has done, and that satisfies his urge to coach the best in the world.

The packline the way it is constructed would not work in the NBA, in my opinion. However, Bennett is not an idiot. He wouldn't try to run the packline the exact way it is currently constructed in a middle school program, and he wouldn't in an NBA program, either.

He has tweaked what his father did, both defensively and offensively, to maximize its effect in today's college basketball. He also tweaks his system depending on the talent he has from year to year, and makes lots of in-game adjustments.

I am very confident, however, that he would find a way to win in the NBA, as well as have those guys playing good defense. I also think he would be an excellent player evaluator for what his team needs. I sincerely hope we never find out whether he can make in the NBA or not, because if he leaves, I am not at all confident that we won't just slip back into mediocrity.

I hope he doesn't ever leave Virginia either. However, I would understand if he wanted the next "challenge" in his professional career. I agree, too, that he has a keen eye for talent, as well as what will "fit" into his program given the other players on his roster and he maximizes the utility of each year's talent in different ways. That's coaching. You're right, if he ever were to leave, I don't see Virginia sustaining this level of success again very easily. There were some tough, tough times there before Tony Bennett came to town. I was there at U-Hall in 2000 for the Georgetown Virginia triple OT game in the NIT. Pete Gillen's last few years were tough. Leitao's tenure was pretty rough, too. This is quite the resurrection for a program that always had talent (Adam Hall, Travis Watson, Big Smooth Chris Williams (Rest in Peace), Donald Hand, Sylven Landesberg, Majestic Mapp, Todd Billet, Elton Brown, Sean Singletary, Roger Mason, Jr., JR Reynolds) but fell on tough times for a while there in the early to mid 2000s and into the 2010s a bit.

[CameronDuke]

If you're a Duke or Virginia fan and want the NC State at UNC game on CBS tipping off at noon to end on time to be able to see tipoff of Virginia at Duke and view the game wire to wire tomorrow, gimme a hell yeah!

Just say NO to OT in Chapel Hill tomorrow!

Someone in the know, who are the CBS announcers for the Virginia at Duke game tomorrow? Is Clark Kellogg one of them?

[devildeac]

If you're a Duke or Virginia fan and want the NC State at UNC game on CBS tipping off at noon to end in time to be able to see tipoff of Virginia at Duke and view the game wire to wire tomorrow, gimme a hell yeah!

Just say NO to OT in Chapel Hill tomorrow!

Someone in the know, who are the CBS announcers for the Virginia at Duke game tomorrow? Is Clark Kellogg one of them?

O/U on when the Wolf Pups surrender at the dump tomorrow?

(sorry, PackMan97 :()

[BandAlum83]

It would be the ultimate challenge, I suppose. Hopefully Team USA lets him take the reins from time to time in the summer like Coach K has done, and that satisfies his urge to coach the best in the world.

The packline the way it is constructed would not work in the NBA, in my opinion. However, Bennett is not an idiot. He wouldn't try to run the packline the exact way it is currently constructed in a middle school program, and he wouldn't in an NBA program, either.

He has tweaked what his father did, both defensively and offensively, to maximize its effect in today's college basketball. He also tweaks his system depending on the talent he has from year to year, and makes lots of in-game adjustments.

I am very confident, however, that he would find a way to win in the NBA, as well as have those guys playing good defense. I also think he would be an excellent player evaluator for what his team needs. I sincerely hope we never find out whether he can make in the NBA or not, because if he leaves, I am not at all confident that we won't just slip back into mediocrity.

I don't keep up on NBA rules, but wouldn't a pack line defense be an illegal defense in the NBA? Aren't all zone defenses illegal? Or is pack line not considered a type of zone?

[Bob Green]

O/U on when the Wolf Pups surrender at the dump tomorrow?

What time is their bus scheduled to depart Raleigh?

[BandAlum83]

I don't know where to find advanced stats, so let me ask this. When looking at the over/under, it seems # of possessions is critical. With. The way UVA slows down the tempo, I would think average possessions plays a big part in total points.

So for Duke to get to 80 points (which I understand only one team has done against them, at 1 point per possession, Duke would need 80 possessions. At 1.06, they would need 75-76 possessions.

What are the average number of possessions for a uva game and for a Duke game. That would seem to be critical in looking at in order to evaluate whose tempo the game might be played at. Also, are there states for time per possession?

Is 76 possessions significantly less than a typical Duke game? Is it more that a typical Duke game? Does UVA limit points by a combination of limiting possessions and also limiting points per possession to .81?

[CDu]

I don't know where to find advanced stats, so let me ask this. When looking at the over/under, it seems # of possessions is critical. With. The way UVA slows down the tempo, I would think average possessions plays a big part in total points.

So for Duke to get to 80 points (which I understand only one team has done against them, at 1 point per possession, Duke would need 80 possessions. At 1.06, they would need 75-76 possessions.

What are the average number of possessions for a uva game and for a Duke game. That would seem to be critical in looking at in order to evaluate whose tempo the game might be played at. Also, are there states for time per possession?

Is 76 possessions significantly less than a typical Duke game? Is it more that a typical Duke game? Does UVA limit points by a combination of limiting possessions and also limiting points per possession to .81?

We average about 72 possessions. UVa around 60.

[Nugget]

I don't know where to find advanced stats, so let me ask this. When looking at the over/under, it seems # of possessions is critical. With. The way UVA slows down the tempo, I would think average possessions plays a big part in total points.

So for Duke to get to 80 points (which I understand only one team has done against them, at 1 point per possession, Duke would need 80 possessions. At 1.06, they would need 75-76 possessions.

What are the average number of possessions for a uva game and for a Duke game. That would seem to be critical in looking at in order to evaluate whose tempo the game might be played at. Also, are there states for time per possession?

Is 76 possessions significantly less than a typical Duke game? Is it more that a typical Duke game? Does UVA limit points by a combination of limiting possessions and also limiting points per possession to .81?

Per KenPom's "Adjusted Tempo" stat (described as # of possessions / adjusted for opponents), U.Va. has about 59 possessions per game and Duke 72. Since we don't really press much and it's easier for a slow team to slow the game down than a fast team to speed it up, I'd bet our game is closer to their normal than ours -- so, figure, around 63-64 possessions.

[Kedsy]

We average about 72 possessions. UVa around 60.

I believe we actually average around 74 possessions per game and Virginia around 62 ppg. KenPom adjusts those numbers based on opponents down to approximately 72 and 60.

[CameronDuke]

Has the line for tomorrow come out yet? If so, what is it? I'm thinking Duke -5 or thereabouts.

[tteettimes]

Has the line for tomorrow come out yet? If so, what is it? I'm thinking Duke -5 or thereabouts.

Cheats fav by 13
Duke by 3 1/2

[devildeac]

Cheats fav by 13
Duke by 3 1/2

NCSU may be down by that many by the first TV TO. :rolleyes:

[Kedsy]

NCSU may be down by that many by the first TV TO. :rolleyes:

I'm going to be bold and predict a Wolfpack win.

[uh_no]

I don't keep up on NBA rules, but wouldn't a pack line defense be an illegal defense in the NBA? Aren't all zone defenses illegal? Or is pack line not considered a type of zone?

zone defenses are not illegal. however there is a 3 second call on the defense...which effectively neuters any zone. it's a stupid rule IMO...let people play defense however they want.

[Furniture]

Duke wins 68 to 62....

[CameronDuke]

Duke wins 68 to 62...

I like this. A lot. Any other predictions? Anyone brave enough? I've had a few Budweisers. I'll say Duke 71, Virginia 63. I'll also say if Duke gets to 70, I'd be shocked if Virginia wins.

[devildeac]

I like this. A lot. Any other predictions? Anyone brave enough? I've had a few Budweisers. I'll say Duke 71, Virginia 63. I'll also say if Duke gets to 70, I'd be shocked if Virginia wins.

You'd be pleased with a few selections from here:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?3840-Ymm-Beer

Although, if your prediction is close, I might even have to break down and have a bud:rolleyes:.

Nah, never mind.

[CameronDuke]

Can I also put a plug in for twitter phenom Phony Bennett? Don't know who the hell he is but if you enjoy college basketball, give him a follow on twitter. Guy is funny as hell. Big Virginia fan but knows his stuff and is entertaining. Very good dude it seems like. Phony if you're reading this love you buddy!

[thedukelamere]

Although, if your prediction is close, I might even have to break down and have a bud.

For the sake of The Brotherhood, I will drink a Bud and post the GIF in the Beer thread after a win tomorrow. That’s how much we need this win.

[Troublemaker]

Of the common actions we run to setup a post feed, the side ball screen into a high-low feed is my favorite in general but also in particular for UVA.

Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/PastelOddBluebottlejellyfish).

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/PastelOddBluebottlejellyfish-size_restricted.gif

Moving the defense is always good. Marvin's defender has to come out to defend the ball screen before retreating to the post. The defender has things to occupy his mind other than just working to deny a post entry if we had run a stagnant postup. As is, the defender gets spun around on his retreat while Marvin gets good position on him in the mid-post, eventually leading to a foul. With regards to UVA, it might be tougher for them to perform their preferred big-to-big doubles when we make a high-low entry. If UVA wants to leave Wendell open from three, I have confidence in him to make it.

Higher-res version (https://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/RigidUncommonFrilledlizard).

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/RigidUncommonFrilledlizard-size_restricted.gif

Another way to be unpredictable is just to run motion offense. This is not a called play unlike some previous examples. We start in a horns set and then run motion out of it. Constant ball movement and player movement eventually lead to an opening for Bagley on a high-low pass. With regards to UVA, if we run constant motion before an entry pass, it'll be slightly tougher for them to on-the-fly figure out who should be bringing the double once the entry is made. And, here again, do you really double off Wendell at the top of the key?

[Troublemaker]

As of the time of this post, looks like most places have Duke -4 with the total opening at 136. (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/index.cfm)

I'm with the UVA fans who believe this thing is going under.

For predictions, I'll go Duke 65 - UVA 62

[Troublemaker]

I don't think either of you will convince the other of your viewpoint, and there are probably cases to be made for both sides. Just being inside a player's vertical cylinder doesn't mean the offensive player can initiate any contact he wants and that automatically makes it a foul on the defender. (If Shayok was a little closer and Allen threw an elbow and hit Shayok in the face, I don't think that would be called a foul on the defense.) Similarly, you can argue that there is clear contact between the two on the drive and THAT should be a clear foul (though one could argue it didn't meet a standard of severity of contact - did either player get an advantage?). It's pretty debatable both ways, despite both parties' insistence that their side is clearly 100% right.

In the end, no calls on EVERYTHING is probably somewhat fair, given that Allen still had to convert and INCREDIBLY difficult shot to get the win. Despite the bang-bang miss on the travel (or fouls), it feels fair enough.

I agree with your second paragraph for sure. But with regard to the bolded sentences, an elbow to the face is what happened to Amile in the video I linked where he was called for a defensive foul because his head was in the offensive player's cylinder. I agree that malicious contact, as judged by the refs, would be disallowed. But anything short of that, and it's a defensive foul when you're in someone's cylinder.

Non-vertical arms being called for fouls is pretty common. In that Miami game I keep making GIFs from, for example, there was this three-point play by Bagley in which the Miami defender's arms are non-vertical (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQLnHiqjWHw&t=30s).

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/UnfortunateDopeyEmeraldtreeskink-size_restricted.gif

Bagley initiated the contact into the non-vertical arms, and the non-vertical arms merely fouled Bagley's non-shooting arm. But still, this is a foul on Miami. And if Bagley had used his non-shooting arm to clear the Miami defender's arms from Bagley's cylinder, it would still be a foul on Miami.

Besides, I maintain that Shayok fouled Grayson before the clear out, anyway. Apologies if this giant GIF causes any problems for viewers. With all that said, I reiterate that your second paragraph is a good way of looking at things. Everything was bang-bang.

https://i.makeagif.com/media/1-26-2018/n0EVWH.gif

[The Gordog]

I like this. A lot. Any other predictions? Anyone brave enough? I've had a few Budweisers. I'll say Duke 71, Virginia 63. I'll also say if Duke gets to 70, I'd be shocked if Virginia wins.

I'll predict UVA 65, Duke 69.

[tux]

I would be shocked if the game is under 136 *and* Duke wins. I would get the ball to Bagley on the block as much as possible and let Carter rebound on the weak side. Bagley has the handles to dribble out of the double team and find shooters on the perimeter. If Duke makes a decent percentage of 3s, they'll win. If not, it will be close. K has a history of letting his best players decide the game, so I wouldn't expect some drastic change that goes away from Duke's strength down low.

[hudlow]

72 Duke
64 UVA

[Troublemaker]

I would be shocked if the game is under 136 *and* Duke wins.

Is there something specific to this year's Duke team that would make you think that? Because scores from previous Duke wins:

2017: Duke 65, UVA 55
2016: Duke 63, UVA 62
2015: Duke 69, UVA 63
2014: Duke 69, UVA 65


I would get the ball to Bagley on the block as much as possible and let Carter rebound on the weak side. Bagley has the handles to dribble out of the double team and find shooters on the perimeter.

I hope you're right. That sounds like a recipe for turnovers to me.


K has a history of letting his best players decide the game, so I wouldn't expect some drastic change that goes away from Duke's strength down low.

I would keep Bagley and Carter involved for sure but using the decoy PNR I outlined above from last season's game at UVA. They can still score around the rim after rolling, and their rolls will suck in the weakside defender, which will lead to open threes on skip passes.

And if we must post them up, make sure the postup isn't the first and only action.

[richardjackson199]

Duke 103
UVA 63

;)

[WiJoe]

If you're a Duke or Virginia fan and want the NC State at UNC game on CBS tipping off at noon to end on time to be able to see tipoff of Virginia at Duke and view the game wire to wire tomorrow, gimme a hell yeah!

Just say NO to OT in Chapel Hill tomorrow!

Someone in the know, who are the CBS announcers for the Virginia at Duke game tomorrow? Is Clark Kellogg one of them?

Ian Eagle & Bill Raftery

[CameronDuke]

Ian Eagle & Bill Raftery

Thank you.

[dukebluesincebirth]

https://247sports.com/college/duke/Article/Zion-Williamson-and-Joey-Baker-visiting-for-Duke-UVA-114253492

Zion will be in attendance tomorrow!

[devildeac]

Duke 103
UVA 63

;)

I'll have a double of what he's been drinking :eek:.

[curtis325]

Duke 103
UVA 63

;)

That's what I'm talkin' about!

[DU82]

Duke 103
UVA 63

;)

Duke 109-66. And never forget the game.

[duketaylor]

Duke leads the nation in rebounding (I think overall rebounding unless it's just offensive rebounding) and scoring (from what I've seen on ESPN). UVA's defense is what it is. That being said, I think keys are: can Duke make a reasonable amount of threes without having to rely on them, say 8 for 19, and have a good ratio of assists to made buckets. Big question is, what defense(s) will Duke play on UVA? I'm hoping lots of zone, stay out of foul trouble and run when it's available. I hope it's available a lot. Duke has a size/athletic advantage inside and needs to exploit that. Hitting some early threes forces the pack line defense to soften even more. Would be a great time for Grayson to go MSU on them tomorrow. I kinda expect K to employ an offensive set that has Marvin and Wendell feeding each other; Marvin's a good passer, maybe see him some on the high post. UVA can control the tempo and must to win, IMO. Just some random thoughts after a long day. Totally looking forward to this game.
Go DUKE!!!

[W&LHoo]

All due respect as a guest but . . .

Hoos: 68
Devils: 62

Let's see if the most talented teenagers on the court can beat a defense run by a couple of 23 year old dudes who've been practicing this for 4.5 years.

[Devil549]

Lost in all the talk about the uva defense is their offense. UVA limits their opponents’ possessions because they don’t take quick shots and are very good scoring late in the shot clock. They shoot the ball at a decent % most games. I just think they do not get the credit they deserve for offensive efficiency that their offensive style produces.

Duke was known for their defense in the 80s and 90s like UVA is today because they got the guys that stayed 4 years. I attended the annual Coach K clinic for years and Robert Brickey and Nate James were not very good defenders in the fall of their freshmen years. Yet thru repetition they became very good defenders. Defense is about heart and practice reps players don’t arrive on campus as great defenders 99% of the time.

Finally Gaps and Pack Line man to man defense are the best defenses to play in today’s college game IMO. Gaps is similar to Pack line but has a few differences but they both stop dribble penetration better that the pressure style Duke plays and has played under Coach K. One main reason they do is most teams have at least one good guard that can handle the ball and penetrate plus the 5 second closely guarded rule is gone on the dribbler.

The game today will be a battle of a very good defensive vs a very good offensive BUT the real key will be is Duke’s defense better than the UVA offense.

[Saratoga2]

Duke leads the nation in rebounding (I think overall rebounding unless it's just offensive rebounding) and scoring (from what I've seen on ESPN). UVA's defense is what it is. That being said, I think keys are: can Duke make a reasonable amount of threes without having to rely on them, say 8 for 19, and have a good ratio of assists to made buckets. Big question is, what defense(s) will Duke play on UVA? I'm hoping lots of zone, stay out of foul trouble and run when it's available. I hope it's available a lot. Duke has a size/athletic advantage inside and needs to exploit that. Hitting some early threes forces the pack line defense to soften even more. Would be a great time for Grayson to go MSU on them tomorrow. I kinda expect K to employ an offensive set that has Marvin and Wendell feeding each other; Marvin's a good passer, maybe see him some on the high post. UVA can control the tempo and must to win, IMO. Just some random thoughts after a long day. Totally looking forward to this game.
Go DUKE!!!

Since Grayson will no doubt play big minutes, it is imperative that he hits a decent percentage of his 3's. Clearly, he will be well guarded as will Gary. Be interesting, but because of the likely tempo, anyone whlo expects high scoring is drinking their coolade.

[dukelifer]

The real test today is how Duval will play. Experienced defenses can lure inexperienced point guards into many mistakes. He has to be very careful with the ball or it will be a long afternoon.

[Bob Green]

All due respect as a guest but . . .

Hoos: 68
Devils: 62



That's a reasonable prediction but, of course, you have the wrong team with 68. :p This is a first team to 65 wins type game.

[CameronDuke]

All due respect as a guest but . . .

Hoos: 68
Devils: 62

Let's see if the most talented teenagers on the court can beat a defense run by a couple of 23 year old dudes who've been practicing this for 4.5 years.

Which Virginia players are 23 years old? I looked at Virginia's roster and I'm assuming you're referring to Devon Hall and Jack Salt. However, VirginiaSports.com doesn't provide birth dates on the individual player biographies.

By the way, W&L - great school. Lexington is a beautiful place, too. Arguably the only school (college or university) better than the University of Virginia - private or public - in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

[tux]

Lost in all the talk about the uva defense is their offense. UVA limits their opponents’ possessions because they don’t take quick shots and are very good scoring late in the shot clock. They shoot the ball at a decent % most games. I just think they do not get the credit they deserve for offensive efficiency that their offensive style produces.

Duke was known for their defense in the 80s and 90s like UVA is today because they got the guys that stayed 4 years. I attended the annual Coach K clinic for years and Robert Brickey and Nate James were not very good defenders in the fall of their freshmen years. Yet thru repetition they became very good defenders. Defense is about heart and practice reps players don’t arrive on campus as great defenders 99% of the time.

Finally Gaps and Pack Line man to man defense are the best defenses to play in today’s college game IMO. Gaps is similar to Pack line but has a few differences but they both stop dribble penetration better that the pressure style Duke plays and has played under Coach K. One main reason they do is most teams have at least one good guard that can handle the ball and penetrate plus the 5 second closely guarded rule is gone on the dribbler.

The game today will be a battle of a very good defensive vs a very good offensive BUT the real key will be is Duke’s defense better than the UVA offense.

I agree and would like to add some additional thoughts:

I think discussions of the struggles of Duke's defense over the past several seasons often focus solely on having young players, but the other component is the change in college offenses, which following the international and NBA games, have started spreading the floor and running a lot more on-ball screens. E.g., Miami has torched Duke's D on several occasions by creating space and attacking the rim. When K first developed his M2M D, most college teams wanted to run standard sets that started with a pass to the wing and then involved a series of off-ball screens, etc. Denying those passes and guarding out past the 3 point line really created a lot of havoc (and turnovers).

In many ways, Virginia's pack line D is a better response to current offensive schemes. It keeps the ball handlers out of the lane and keeps the help defense closer to the action. I actually wonder if it would be better for Duke to apply some of those principals to its own M2M D. If good defense is about communication, I would think the more compact spacing would also help those young players in that department too. From that base, you could figure out ways to extend the D as the team improved and in response to different opponents.

[tux]

Is there something specific to this year's Duke team that would make you think that? Because scores from previous Duke wins:

2017: Duke 65, UVA 55
2016: Duke 63, UVA 62
2015: Duke 69, UVA 63
2014: Duke 69, UVA 65




My point was just that UVA wants to play a game in the 60s and Duke would like to score its typical 80+. If you told K and Bennett that today's game was going to be under 136, I think Bennett would be much more confident that UVA could win. I hope Duke runs when possible to take advantage of our better talent. I'd be fine with Duke taking the first open shot on offense, as I think Duke needs to not let UVA grind us down with their defense. We'll see if Duke can do that w/o a bunch of turnovers...

[superdave]

I think that Duke should relentlessly full court press.


Their one loss was to West Virginia(Press Virginia) at home. I think we should full court press instead of letting them walk the ball up court and be comfortable in their offense. In other words, turn the tables on them. That's what West Virginia did.

I love the idea of a press. I think it could speed up UVA and get us a few buckets (I dont expect UVA to turn over much). At the slower pace, we ought to be able keep the press up all day.

On the other end, I expect our bigs to crash the offensive boards. That's our differentiator (is that a word?) to win this game. If we get a handful of stickbacks, we win. I think the double team coming on to Bagley can open this up for Carter and the guards to crash the boards.

[Troublemaker]

All due respect as a guest but . . .

Hoos: 68
Devils: 62

Let's see if the most talented teenagers on the court can beat a defense run by a couple of 23 year old dudes who've been practicing this for 4.5 years.

This is pretty much always the matchup between us :-)

Frequently, those teenagers have won.



The game today will be a battle of a very good defensive vs a very good offensive BUT the real key will be is Duke’s defense better than the UVA offense.

I don't see either side of the ball as being more key than the other. Our offense can both win (e.g. dominate ORebs) or lose (e.g. too many turnovers) the game for us. Likewise, our defense can both win (e.g. successfully chase UVA's guards around screens) or lose (e.g. not) for us.

The marquee matchup (UVA's D vs Duke's O) will of course generate more bandwidth.


The real test today is how Duval will play. Experienced defenses can lure inexperienced point guards into many mistakes. He has to be very careful with the ball or it will be a long afternoon.

When he drives, he has to be careful not to get stripped by UVA's wings which will be waiting in help position. But, assuming he can get by UVA's wing layer on defense without turning the ball over, maybe Trevon can get us some key buckets around the rim with dropoffs to big men or finishes because I *think* he can beat Ty Jerome off the dribble.

[Sixthman]

I don't think I have been more intrigued by how a game would play out in a long time. Some thoughts:

1. Whatever happens today and whatever else happens this season, I think this team has extraordinary talent. Carter and Bailey are both better than our best bigs from the one and done era. I like to compare Trent to Justise Winslow -- not really the same game -- but I think Trent is playing at at least as high a level at this time of the year as was Winslow his championship season. And Grayson Allen is a full on great team player. He is good enough to demand the ball every time down the court but on this team, he comes out every game and focuses on every element of the game, modeling for the entire team what it takes to win. From the first game, when they played their best together as a team they were great. They have not been able to sustain great team play through an entire game -- with the exception of the Michigan State game. Virginia, because it plays with such exceptional tenacity and patience, will either expose our inability to play with intensity and good team play for the full forty, or will, hopefully, inspire us to play to that highest level for the whole game.

2. The storyline of Duke's offense trumps Virginia's defense is the most unlikely. While this Duke team scores at a higher level than other recent Duke teams, those have all been good offensive teams, and we have played Virginia in the 60s in recent years. The only way Duke gets to 80 is through defense -- which is to say through steals and transition baskets (I guess it could happen with threes). If there are a lot or either, we might. I think Coach K's instinct will be to meet Virginia's defense will a tougher more intense Duke defense. This could mean more steals. I think it is more likely to mean the bench gets a few more minutes and the focus is on playing with defensive intensity until the shot clock expires. A good day for Duke might be measured by desperation threes hitting air when Virginia is on offense.

3. When Duke lost to Boston College, it was the three ball which was killing us. In the first half of that game, Duke's two point offense was killing Boston College just as much as their threes were killing us. At one point in the first half, I checked the stats --- I'm going to say with about five minutes left in the first half -- and we were shooting over 80% from the field and were behind by ten points. I think Virginia's approach makes the two point game less vulnerable to this scenario. One of the biggest tests of the game will be whether Virginia can keep Duke off the offensive boards. Our offensive rebounding has been less effective in recent games. My guess is that trend continues.

4. Virginia will really want to avoid the transition baskets for Duke. This may mean they get fewer offensive rebounds. It will be interesting to see if Virginia shoots more threes. It makes it easier for guards to get offensive rebounds but can create transition opportunities for the opponent.

5. Virginia will test the refs early with very physical play from their inside guys. The worst case scenario for them is our bigs shooting a lot of free throws, and that isn't a strength. I hope we've been focusing on the free throw line this week in practice.

6. I've seen posts and comments saying this game will come down to which team shoots threes better. I'll agree and disagree with that. If we shoot the three well we will win this game easily. On the other hand, I can't imagine that the coaches have built their game strategy around winning with the three.

7. One of the big negatives for this Duke team so far has been a tendency to not value every possession -- kind of an I'll take this shot approach because there'll always be more. Virginia will actually help cure us of this problem. Why would we ever shoot in the half court offense without running the ball through our bigs? I think Virginia will dare us to do so today, and their success might tell the tale. That having been said, I like Grayson, Trent, and even O'Connell with jump shot from the free throw line extended.

8. I think a win here could be a real developmental milestone for this team. I think if Duke loses this game after playing reasonably well, it's of no consequence - next game. That's a pretty good place to be.

[superdave]

You've totally neglected the hundreds of times Jay has said some variation of "being down to UVa by 5 is like being down to anyone else by 15." Quite the oversight.

Bilas is becoming a caricature of himself, relying on tired lines like this. Vitale descended into caricature territory in the mid 90's and really got boring quickly.

I cant say I'm that excited about any of the college crews these days. I do like it when the NBA guys do the college games (Mark Jackson, Doug Collins?). I kinda like Brad Daugherty and Gus Johnson.

Humbug........

[superdave]

7. One of the big negatives for this Duke team so far has been a tendency to not value every possession -- kind of an I'll take this shot approach because there'll always be more. Virginia will actually help cure us of this problem. Why would we ever shoot in the half court offense without running the ball through our bigs? I think Virginia will dare us to do so today, and their success might tell the tale. That having been said, I like Grayson, Trent, and even O'Connell with jump shot from the free throw line extended.

8. I think a win here could be a real developmental milestone for this team. I think if Duke loses this game after playing reasonably well, it's of no consequence - next game. That's a pretty good place to be.

Duke has to show it can execute and value the ball over and over and over for long possessions. A real test for Duval and Allen. Duval sat a lot vs Wake, so I will be curious to see how he responds.

[plimnko]

the young guys need to play old

[dukelifer]

This is pretty much always the matchup between us :-)

Frequently, those teenagers have won.



I don't see either side of the ball as being more key than the other. Our offense can both win (e.g. dominate ORebs) or lose (e.g. too many turnovers) the game for us. Likewise, our defense can both win (e.g. successfully chase UVA's guards around screens) or lose (e.g. not) for us.

The marquee matchup (UVA's D vs Duke's O) will of course generate more bandwidth.



When he drives, he has to be careful not to get stripped by UVA's wings which will be waiting in help position. But, assuming he can get by UVA's wing layer on defense without turning the ball over, maybe Trevon can get us some key buckets around the rim with dropoffs to big men or finishes because I *think* he can beat Ty Jerome off the dribble.

I am more worried about his passing. Last game he could not finish at the rim. That said, I expect a big game from Duval after a poor game at Wake. Everyone needs to play well to get a win.

[budwom]

I'm going to be bold and predict a Wolfpack win.

someone has commenced cocktail hour! :D

[uh_no]

Let's see if the most talented teenagers on the court can beat a defense run by a couple of 23 year old dudes who've been practicing this for 4.5 years.

well...given talented freshman from duke have recently routinely beat your defense, I can't say I would reach the same answer you did....but then again, while I generally believe in using data to support my conclusions, I understand that many don't. To each his own. :)

[construe]

Let's see if the most talented teenagers on the court can beat a defense run by a couple of 23 year old dudes who've been practicing this for 4.5 years.

Yep, this is the story of Duke in the 1-and-done era: can incredible youthful talent beat (sometimes less talented) experience? And this is what I think many Duke fans have found frustrating the past couple of seasons (and presumably will next year, too).

Having said that, I absolutely love seeing someone like Bagley at Duke. Reminds me when I first saw Brand play...I had never seen anyone quite like him at Duke before and boy was it amazing!

Sorry for the digression. Re today's game, I also 2nd Troublemaker's come-back to your comment W&LHoo: yes, our team is a bunch of athletic freshman...but as they say, by the end of the season, freshman turn into sophomores. This Duke team is starting to gel defensively (caveat: we've been mostly playing poor teams), and when they all start instinctively knowing each other's offensive tendencies more, this team could be both mature AND talented.

Let's hope it all comes together today for Duke! :D

[devildeac]

All due respect as a guest but . . .

Hoos: 68
Devils: 62

Let's see if the most talented teenagers on the court can beat a defense run by a couple of 23 year old dudes who've been practicing this for 4.5 years.

Reasonable prediction but you know we're all pretty much WAGs here. :o:rolleyes:

[wavedukefan70s]

Game has me sweating.it will depend on how they call it down low.do they give them the freedom to be very physical ?or do they give us the freedom to move.im wondering if we can go over the top of them
at the 4 and 5 ?mid range game and farther will have to open it up some.

[slower]

Yup. And in fairness, I think most UVA fans think Duke is going to win as well.

Not the ones I know. As ALWAYS, nobody knows anything until it happens. Although I know the bread and butter of DBR is reasoned (in their own mind, at least) speculation/prediction by posters, it's all just noise.

I haven't seen UVA this year, but I've seen nothing recently from Duke that makes me comfortable/assured of our chance of victory. Now, Duke MAY win, but that remains to be seen.

Carter and Bagley MAY turn in a dominant performance. Allen MAY regain his shot. Duval MAY play under control. The team may not lose their composure in the face of Virginia's defense.

But it's just as likely that Duval continues his poor decision-making and Grayson (and Trent) has to run the show, that we see some time for AOC and Javin, and that this very young bunch has a meltdown. And if Virginia is allowed to play their historically rough style (hello, moving screens) and not get called for it, it could get ugly.

ANYTHING can happen. The only guarantee is that it will be a brutally physical game. I worry about Carter (and Duval, of course) racking up fouls. We shall see.

Who are today's zebras?

[jimsumner]

Not the ones I know. As ALWAYS, nobody knows anything until it happens. Although I know the bread and butter of DBR is reasoned (in their own mind, at least) speculation/prediction by posters, it's all just noise.

I haven't seen UVA this year, but I've seen nothing recently from Duke that makes me comfortable/assured of our chance of victory. Now, Duke MAY win, but that remains to be seen.

Carter and Bagley MAY turn in a dominant performance. Allen MAY regain his shot. Duval MAY play under control. The team may not lose their composure in the face of Virginia's defense.

But it's just as likely that Duval continues his poor decision-making and Grayson (and Trent) has to run the show, that we see some time for AOC and Javin, and that this very young bunch has a meltdown. And if Virginia is allowed to play their historically rough style (hello, moving screens) and not get called for it, it could get ugly.

ANYTHING can happen. The only guarantee is that it will be a brutally physical game. I worry about Carter (and Duval, of course) racking up fouls. We shall see.

Who are today's zebras?

A great use of reverse mojo. Kudos.

[slower]

A great use of reverse mojo. Kudos.

My name is Charlie Brown, and I have attempted to kick that football many times. No more. :p

[rsvman]

I don't think there is any way that Virginia holds this Duke team to 62 points. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say that the best defensive team in the history of college basketball gives up at least 70 to the Devils today.

LGD!

[duke2x]

Who are today's zebras?

It won't be Luckie or Eades because they are @UNC today. We are overdue for Dorsey(injured) and due for Jones and Nestor.

[devildeac]

It won't be Luckie or Eades because they are @UNC today. We are overdue for Dorsey(injured) and due for Jones and Nestor.

We want ted-dy: clap, clap, clap/clap/clap.

(kidding)

[CameronDuke]

Today's officials are Jeff Clark, Tim Nestor, and Brian O'Connell.

[Troublemaker]

My point was just that UVA wants to play a game in the 60s and Duke would like to score its typical 80+. If you told K and Bennett that today's game was going to be under 136, I think Bennett would be much more confident that UVA could win.

I think Coach K knows the history of this matchup and would be pretty comfortable that Duke could win in the 60s.


I hope Duke runs when possible to take advantage of our better talent. I'd be fine with Duke taking the first open shot on offense, as I think Duke needs to not let UVA grind us down with their defense.

Playing defense is more tiring than playing offense, no matter how good the Pack Line is. But especially since UVA on offense runs opposing defenders through physical screens for 30 seconds. It's really the UVA offense that we should be worried about grinding us down.

Now, with that said, I agree that Duke should try to run and Duke should take the first open shot on offense. Obviously any transition points would be huge for us, and if you pass up an open shot, there's no guarantee you get a better shot later on in the shotclock. Usually you don't.

[uh_no]

crazy atmosphere. students are jacked up. go duke!!!!!

[uh_no]

also, UVA is late to the stadium. an hour until gametime and they just got here

[uh_no]

no bolden in warmups

[uh_no]

scratch that. warning up in braces

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[DavidBenAkiva]

scratch that. warning up in braces

Twitter is showing that he's wearing a soft brace. That's notable as it indicates he might be available off the bench. More notable, it might mean the end of his injury is in sight. Providing solid defense and rebounding off the bench tin February on would be very helpful in case Wendell or Marvin get in foul trouble. It's pretty much assured that Javin is going to get in foul trouble this year, so 5 more fouls to absorb would be nice.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Where can I watch online? Anyone have a link? Thanks

[Troublemaker]

Where can I watch online? Anyone have a link? Thanks

For the legal way of doing it, I think you sign up for a free trial to stream CBS at this link: https://www.cbs.com/all-access/live-tv/

For, ahem, other ways of doing it, I'll send you a PM in a few minutes.

[DavidBenAkiva]

New Duke commit Zion Williamson is in Cameron Indoor Stadium for the UVA game this afternoon.

2019 commit Joey Baker expected to be in attendance as well.

[DU82]

Where can I watch online? Anyone have a link? Thanks

I’m watching the State-Cheaters game on the CBS Sports app. I would guess our game will be on there as well.

[brevity]

Where can I watch online? Anyone have a link? Thanks

CBSSports.com: How to watch Duke vs. Virginia: Live updates, TV, times, streaming online, line (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/how-to-watch-duke-vs-virginia-live-updates-tv-times-streaming-online-line/)

The direct link is here (http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/cbk-live/?ftag=SPM-16-10abj1b), but it's not game time yet and all I see is some quiet arena in a hideous shade of blue.

[riverside6]

Live tempo based stats for Duke/UVA, starters posted


https://www.scacchoops.com/virginia-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-01272018

[Kjeffrey]

And of course the State/Carolina game is in OT. Ugh!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thanks

[arnie]

CBSSports.com: How to watch Duke vs. Virginia: Live updates, TV, times, streaming online, line (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/how-to-watch-duke-vs-virginia-live-updates-tv-times-streaming-online-line/)

The direct link is here (http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/cbk-live/?ftag=SPM-16-10abj1b), but it's not game time yet and all I see is some quiet arena in a hideous shade of blue.

Cheat State game in OT. Will miss Duke beginning

[Kedsy]

someone has commenced cocktail hour! :D

And yet, I'm watching OT now...

[wavedukefan70s]

Dilly,dilly🤔

[DavidBenAkiva]

Are they delaying the game until the NC State-UNC game ends? I'm watching the live feed of UVA-Duke online and nothing is showing. No sign the game has started on SCACCHoops website either.

[richardjackson199]

And yet, I'm watching OT now...

cheats looked good at home

[gocanes0506]

At least UNX lost. Already a good day!

[Kedsy]

someone has commenced cocktail hour! :D

Think again.

[gocanes0506]

Already playing into their hand. Not going inside and missing a bunch of 3s.

[BigZ]

The offense is struggling but the defense is the problem

[Acymetric]

I do not mind Bagley and Carter taking threes for obvious reasons (they can make them), but maybe need to scale it back a bit.

[curtis325]

Maybe UVA will miss a shot some time. Or not.

[arnie]

The offense is struggling but the defense is the problem
14 pts in 12 minutes is a problem.

[Kjeffrey]

14 pts in 12 minutes is a problem.

Yes and our misses don't seem to be the result of their defense. Duke just hasn't shot well.

[gocanes0506]

Duval is a disappointment so far

[BigZ]

Our guards are playing terrible

[InSpades]

We just lack discipline and fundamentals. It's very frustrating to be thoroughly outclassed by a team w/ so much less talent that plays so much smarter.