Phase IV - Wake 2 through Unc 1

[superdave]

Duke has won its last four contests after giving up 96 points in disappointing fashion over in Raleigh. They made it through Phase II with a 5-1 record including big wins over FSU and at Miami.

Health – Bolden has not played in the last 5 games with a grade 1 MCL sprain. DeLaurier missed three game last phase with a hamstring injury. Bagley suffered a separated should vs. Miami but apparently popped it back in himself. Missing Bolden and DeLaurier has caused Duke to both play smaller and to play Carter and Bagley more minutes to share the workload. Here’s hoping the team doesn’t have any more missed games the next 75 or so days.

Defense – Coach K seems to have his team’s attention with regard to defensive effort, but it remains to be seen whether they can execute for long stretches and avoid slow starts, sloppiness and foul trouble. During the last phase they gave up 96 points in a loss to State and 93 points in a win vs FSU. They basically got into up and down games both times and tried to outscore the opponent rather than lock down on D to feed the offense.

The good news is the last 10 minutes vs. Miami, Duke gave up only 16 points and got a lot of stops for come from behind win. Duke sits at #82 in the country for defensive efficiency on KenPom after starting this phase at #70. The focus is there at times, Coach K is rotating defense some, but focus wanes and lots of opponents are getting into the paint. I think two issues come to mind about the defense. First, starters are playing pretty heavy minutes and are young. That’s a recipe for foul trouble. Carter and Duval have both had early foul trouble limit minutes and effectiveness. Coaches have been working on moving feet rather than reaching.

Second, playing at a faster pace has led to other teams running with us and getting more efficient shots in transition. I don’t know that we slow down, but hustling back on D and chasing shooters off the 3 point line will help on the margins, as well as avoiding live ball turnovers on offense that allow for run outs. At the end of the day, I expect Coach K will continue to rotate defenses, probably spend a lot of time on it in practice in the hopes of a March run. This team can outscore anybody. But that leaves little margin for error. If the defense can start games with the same energy it seemed to close out vs Miami, Texas, Florida, FSU then things will click. We have a ways to go and I think the starters have to just make up their collective minds to do it.

Bagley – We are going to see defensive schemes aimed at pushing Bagley further out, draping a second defender on him and even playing him really physically. How will Duke adjust and still run a lot of offense through Marvin? What wrinkles can Coach K add?

A faster pace will help Bagley get touches before the defense is set. But in the half court, K will need to run a few schemes for Bagley. He can use baseline screens to have Bagley pop up on the opposite block for a quick pass. He can use 3 point shooters as decoys for lobs and driving lanes. Coach K can also use Bagley as a decoy to open up the late or swing the ball around for 3’s. I expect defenses to go after Bagley and Allen, but we have run more of the offense through Marvin to date so it’s more likely the team will run some plays to counter the D.

Duval – Duval is averaging 12 points and 6 assists. His shot has fallen a little more the last few weeks. His assist to turnover ratio is 118:49 or 2.40:1. He seems to recognize when he has mismatch and can get to the rim quickly. I think Bagley and Allen are going to be our 1-2 punch; but if this team is going to make the big leap and a title run, the Duval is the guy. He can be the quickest and fastest guy on both ends of the court. If he gets hot defensively, we are on another level.

Offensive Rebounding – I have our offensive rebounding percentage at 45.977%. (280 o rebs / 609 missed FG’s). That’s good right!?

3-Point Shooting – Allen is shooting .389 from 3-land on 126 attempts (6.6 per game). Trent is shooting .432 on 118 attempts (6.2 per game). Carter has shot well, and Bagley and Dual have hit here and there. If Allen breaks out of his current slump (11-42 this phase, 26%) then the team can put teams away. If both Allen and Trent finish this season over .400, then we should be happy.

Maturity - The comeback wins make this less of an issue. Our young squad has fought back from double digit 2nd half deficits vs Texas, Florida, Miami and a more moderate deficit vs FSU. But they also played ole defense and got out-worked by BC and State, two out-classed opponents. We are getting to the point in the season where they should know how to take care of business. They have to put lesser teams away. I will be looking for growth in that department.

[Bob Green]

Defense – Coach K seems to have his team’s attention with regard to defensive effort, but it remains to be seen whether they can execute for long stretches and avoid slow starts, sloppiness and foul trouble. During the last phase they gave up 96 points in a loss to State and 93 points in a win vs FSU. They basically got into up and down games both times and tried to outscore the opponent rather than lock down on D to feed the offense.



Developing defensive identity is an important item to keep an eye on this phase. The team needs to keep improving the man-to-man and zone defense in order to be able to throw multiple looks at opponents.

[Kedsy]

Thanks, Dave. Always nice to get a well crafted phase post.


Offensive Rebounding – I have our offensive rebounding percentage at 45.977%. (280 o rebs / 609 missed FG’s). That’s good right!?

Not quite right. You're missing missed free throws. Offensive rebounding percentage is the percentage of available rebounds, so you use the sum of our offensive boards plus opposing defensive boards (395) as the denominator. The team's current season OR% is therefore 41.5%. Which is still really good. If it holds up, it would be the 2nd best Duke OR% performance since they started keeping track of offensive rebounds in 1987 (the 1999 team had an OR% of 44.3%; the 1990 team got 40.9% and the 2010 team got 40.6%).


Maturity - The comeback wins make this less of an issue. Our young squad has fought back from double digit 2nd half deficits vs Texas, Florida, Miami and a more moderate deficit vs FSU.

Crazily enough, this Duke team has faced second-half deficits in 9 of our 19 games. The fact that we've won 7 of those 9 to me seems pretty good.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Thanks, Dave. Always nice to get a well crafted phase post.



Not quite right. You're missing missed free throws.

Well, Duval is the answer to missed free throws!

[jv001]

Bagley has been so good that we tend to overlook Wendell. With the added attention from our opponents to Marvin, I look for more assists for MBIII. The recipient of those assists could be Carter and even Grayson for the three ball. Let's make them pay for double teams on Marvin. Good phase. GoDuke!

[Truth&Justise]

Great write up! To be clear, Phase IV consists of:


(1/23) @ Wake Forest [92]
(1/27) Virginia [3]
(1/29) Notre Dame [31]
(2/3) @ St. John's [85]
(2/8) @ UNC [9]


KenPom rankings are in brackets. That's a tricky five game stretch. Three games on the road and a quick turnaround on the home games. Plus a rivalry match on the road. No truly bad teams to be seen.

[Saratoga2]

With both Bolden and DeLaurier out for several games our rotation was altered to some degree. Our starters are excellent, but they also need support in the case of fatigue and/or foul trouble. Before the recent injury issues, it looked like our first big man in was Delaurier and our first perimeter player off the bench was O'Connell. While others have shown some merit, I believe these are still the 6th and 7th men depending on need. Clearly Bolden would be a plus to have particularly against bigger physical teams. Goldwire is okay as a short term sub at PG.

[superdave]

The team is now #58 in defensive efficiency per KenPom. That's a pretty good improvement from the 80's a month or so ago.

Per Kedsy's tracking thread, here's the last handful of games in efficiency -

Pitt 0.82
Wake 0.90
Miami 0.93
Pitt 0.85
Wake 0.96
Virginia 0.99

Something has changed, but what?

Vs Virginia we saw a 3/4 court press knock off the UVA rhythm. We also saw our guys willing to give up elbow jumpers in order to protect the rim more. Vs Miami we saw a solid zone in the second half really have the guys active on defense. Is it about scheme or game planning or just effort and focus? I think switching between man and zone contributes heavily to the focus thing, especially with 4 freshmen.

Since the State debacle, are we seeing this team lock in and get better? It seems they may have turned a corner. Hoping this trend continues.

[Kedsy]

Vs Miami we saw a solid zone in the second half really have the guys active on defense. Is it about scheme or game planning or just effort and focus? I think switching between man and zone contributes heavily to the focus thing, especially with 4 freshmen.

I rewatched the second half of yesterday's game. Our zone flummoxed Virginia for awhile too, allowing us to make the big comeback. But eventually they caught up to it. It's possible our 2-3 zone is only good for about 8 or 10 minutes before it needs to be switched to something else.

[CDu]

I've been a big proponent of Duval's throughout this season, but I think it's fair to say that he is really struggling right now. Over his last 5 games, he is averaging 7.2 ppg, 5.6 apg, and 3.2 turnovers per game (assist/turnover ratio of 1.75), while shooting just 37% from the field and 46% from the FT line.

Strangely, he's actually shooting 3s well in this time frame, at 50% on 8 attempts. But he's basically doing everything else pretty inefficiently at the moment, shooting just 33% from 2pt range, 46% from the line, and turning it over a bit too much.

Unfortunately, our senior second-option at PG isn't playing any better offensively over this period. He's averaging 9 ppg, 4.4 apg, and 2.6 turnovers per game (assist/turnover ratio of 1.69), while shooting just 30% from the field.

We are currently winning in spite of the offensive contributions from our guards. And yesterday, if either guy had played decently offensively, we probably win.

That's not to bash these guys. Allen has certainly contributed on the other end in this stretch, averaging 2.2 steals per game. But we probably need at least one of our perimeter guys to play well offensively for us to win against good teams. And right now, both are struggling. Hopefully they rebound soon.

Yesterday's loss accentuated these two player's struggles, in part because it also marked a rare poor game for Trent. His absurd efficiency over the previous 4 games had masked the offensive struggles by our guards. But when all 3 guys have a bad game, it really puts a strain on the offense. Especially against a good defense. Thankfully, Bagley and Carter were magnificent and UVa was missing more shots than usual. But I think if this team is going to win games in late-March/early-April, I think we're going to need at least 1.5 of the 3 perimeter guys to play well offensively.

[arnie]

I rewatched the second half of yesterday's game. Our zone flummoxed Virginia for awhile too, allowing us to make the big comeback. But eventually they caught up to it. It's possible our 2-3 zone is only good for about 8 or 10 minutes before it needs to be switched to something else.

Yea our zone works ok when the opponent in the middle can’t hit a 12-15 foot shot - like UVA for much of 2nd half. Switching up is better if our guys don’t get lost doing it.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yea our zone works ok when the opponent in the middle can’t hit a 12-15 foot shot - like UVA for much of 2nd half. Switching up is better if our guys don’t get lost doing it.

In all honesty, I can't decide if our defense gets credit for those misses or if UVa gets the blame.

[Kedsy]

Yea our zone works ok when the opponent in the middle can’t hit a 12-15 foot shot - like UVA for much of 2nd half. Switching up is better if our guys don’t get lost doing it.

The 12 to 15 foot shots (which to me looked more like 15 to 18 foot shots) they didn't hit were flat-footed, out-of-rhythm, long two-pointers by their worst shooter. Part of defense is forcing the shot you want, and you can't ask for better shots (for the defense) than those.

I think you're underestimating our zone. It was very effective for that 8-minute period (as it was against Miami for approximately an 8-minute period). After that, it seemed like maybe they figured it out, but it still wasn't terrible. Much better than you're suggesting, anyway.

[CDu]

The 12 to 15 foot shots (which to me looked more like 15 to 18 foot shots) they didn't hit were flat-footed, out-of-rhythm, long two-pointers by their worst shooter. Part of defense is forcing the shot you want, and you can't ask for better shots (for the defense) than those.

I think you're underestimating our zone. It was very effective for that 8-minute period (as it was against Miami for approximately an 8-minute period). After that, it seemed like maybe they figured it out, but it still wasn't terrible. Much better than you're suggesting, anyway.

Slight caveat here. None of those misses were by their worst shooter. That would be Salt. There were 3 by Wilkins and 1 by Hunter, who would have been the second-worst shooter on the floor though neither is really a bad shooter. But the majority of the missed shots were by their 3 good shooters. Jerome missed a jumper, Hall missed a jumper, and the rest of the missed shots were 3s by Hall, Guy, and Jerome.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Slight caveat here. None of those misses were by their worst shooter. That would be Salt. There were 3 by Wilkins and 1 by Hunter, who would have been the second-worst shooter on the floor though neither is really a bad shooter. But the majority of the missed shots were by their 3 good shooters. Jerome missed a jumper, Hall missed a jumper, and the rest of the missed shots were 3s by Hall, Guy, and Jerome.

Raftery seemed baffled by the misses during the game too. He said over and over "that's the shot Virginia wants!" immediately before it would clank.

[Kedsy]

Slight caveat here. None of those misses were by their worst shooter. That would be Salt. There were 3 by Wilkins and 1 by Hunter, who would have been the second-worst shooter on the floor though neither is really a bad shooter. But the majority of the missed shots were by their 3 good shooters. Jerome missed a jumper, Hall missed a jumper, and the rest of the missed shots were 3s by Hall, Guy, and Jerome.

OK, except Salt is better than Wilkins at tS% (.604 to .534) and eFG% (.627 to .495), and they're even at 2-point-jumper shooting% (40.0% to 40.7%). Also, the missed jumpers by Jerome, Hunter, and Hall were all after we tied the game at 39 (and at a time when we'd been playing the zone for approximately 8 minutes). Finally, Hall and Jerome, while good shooters overall, still don't top 40% on two-point jumpers. We were forcing inefficient shots, which was my point.

[CDu]

OK, except Salt is better than Wilkins at tS% (.604 to .534) and eFG% (.627 to .495), and they're even at 2-point-jumper shooting% (40.0% to 40.7%).

Come on, Keds, you're better than that. TS% and eFG% are measures of success on the shots taken, not measures of how good a shooter you are. Salt is a career 47% FT shooter and has never been allowed to shoot a 3. Wilkins is a career 66% FT shooter (72% the past two seasons) who is allowed to shoot 3s and has hit 32% on 3s. I think it's fairly safe to say Wilkins is a MUCH better shooter than Salt, and that his jumper % is on much more difficult shots.


Also, the missed jumpers by Jerome, Hunter, and Hall were all after we tied the game at 39 (and at a time when we'd been playing the zone for approximately 8 minutes). Finally, Hall and Jerome, while good shooters overall, still don't top 40% on two-point jumpers. We were forcing inefficient shots, which was my point.

No, they weren't. Jerome's miss was at 13:23 (before Hunter's miss). Hall's was at 12:12. Both were within any reasonable 8 minute stretch. And again, they missed a bunch of 3s in that stretch. More missed 3s (4) than misses by Wilkins (3) in fact. And in the first 8 minutes of the second half, twice as many misses by Guy, Hall, and Jerome (6) than by Wilkins. And again, Wilkins isn't actually a bad shooter. He isn't elite like Guy/Jerome/Hall, but he's definitely solid.

I'm not saying the defense was bad. But I am saying you're overstating things by saying that their misses were by their worst shooter. They weren't. It's not even true that most of their misses were by their second worst shooter.

[Kedsy]

No, they weren't. Jerome's miss was at 13:23 (before Hunter's miss). Hall's was at 12:12. Both were within any reasonable 8 minute stretch. And again, they missed a bunch of 3s in that stretch. More missed 3s (4) than misses by Wilkins (3) in fact. And in the first 8 minutes of the second half, twice as many misses by Guy, Hall, and Jerome (6) than by Wilkins. And again, Wilkins isn't actually a bad shooter. He isn't elite like Guy/Jerome/Hall, but he's definitely solid.

I'm not saying the defense was bad. But I am saying you're overstating things by saying that their misses were by their worst shooter. They weren't. It's not even true that most of their misses were by their second worst shooter.

I thought the threes they took were well-covered. But it's not particularly relevant when the post to which I originally responded mentioned 12-15 foot shots only.

Also, I said that all three of those (non-Wilkins) jumpers came after we tied the game at 39, which is absolutely true. And if you don't think that at the 12:12 mark, we'd been playing zone "for approximately 8 minutes," I'm not sure why we're talking. Finally, Jerome and Hall both shoot two-point jumpers worse than 40%, so letting them shoot from there is still just about the best thing we can get from a defensive possession.


I think it's fairly safe to say Wilkins is a MUCH better shooter than Salt, and that his jumper % is on much more difficult shots.

Salt is shooting 40% on two-point jumpers this year (per Hoop-Math). Wilkins is shooting 40.7% on two-point jumpers this year. How can you tell Wilkins's jumpers were on "much more difficult shots"?

[CDu]

Also, I said that all three of those (non-Wilkins) jumpers came after we tied the game at 39, which is absolutely true. And if you don't think that at the 12:12 mark, we'd been playing zone "for approximately 8 minutes," I'm not sure why we're talking.

Of all people, you probably shouldn't be making the "why are we arguing technicalities" statement. (and to be fair, I'm right there with you on that issue). We both are quite well-known for this.

But you said they were both after 8 minutes of play. One was after ~6.5 minutes, one was after just short of 8 minutes. Neither was actually after 8 minutes, and one was especially not.

It is absolutely true that they came after we tied it up. But at least one came very much within the 8-minute stretch of good defense. If you want to change it to a 6-minute stretch (which is the actual stretch it took to tie it up), then fine by me.


Salt is shooting 40% on two-point jumpers this year (per Hoop-Math). Wilkins is shooting 40.7% on two-point jumpers this year. How can you tell Wilkins's jumpers were on "much more difficult shots"?

Seriously? If one guy shoots substantially higher percentages on FTs, and is allowed to shoot 3s (where he is a career 32% shooter) where the other guy isn't allowed to take them, I don't think it takes a great leap of faith to assume that his 40.7% is on tougher looks than Salt's 40%. Also note that Salt has just 9.8% of his FGAs on 2pt jumpers (90.2% of his shots are at the rim), whereas Wilkins has over 50% of his on 2pt jumpers. But, no, I'm sure you're right that they really are comparable shooters and not that it is a combination of small sample size anomaly for Salt and tougher shots for Wilkins.

[Kedsy]

But you said they were both after 8 minutes of play.

Actually I didn't. If you're going to be technical you should be accurate. I said the non-Wilkins shots were taken, "at a time when we'd been playing the zone for approximately 8 minutes."

[CDu]

Actually I didn't. If you're going to be technical you should be accurate. I said the non-Wilkins shots were taken, "at a time when we'd been playing the zone for approximately 8 minutes."

Point taken. My statement still holds even with that revision. 6.6 is not approximately 8. Outside of some shoddy government work, of course.

[CDu]

Also note that Salt has just 9.8% of his FGAs on 2pt jumpers (90.2% of his shots are at the rim), whereas Wilkins has over 50% of his on 2pt jumpers. But, no, I'm sure you're right that they really are comparable shooters and not that it is a combination of small sample size anomaly for Salt and tougher shots for Wilkins.

To quantify this point, Salt has taken 5 shots away from the rim this year, and made 2. Wilkins has taken 54, and made 22.

For the last two years (for some reason hoop-math's 2016 isn't working, but I doubt it changes things much), Salt has taken 18 shots away from the rim, and made 5 (27.8%). Wilkins has taken 120 attempts, and made 47 (39.2%). I think it's fair to say that Salt is not taking as difficult a set of shots as Wilkins. Either that or he's been flukishly lucky on at least one attempt this year.

As a corrollary, Hall, Jerome, and Guy all shoot below 40% on 2pt jumpers. I don't see anyone suggesting Wilkins or Salt is as good or better as a shooter than those guys.

Volume and degree of difficulty matter. Marshall Plumlee isn't a better 3pt shooter than Grayson Allen.

[Kedsy]

To quantify this point, Salt has taken 5 shots away from the rim this year, and made 2. Wilkins has taken 54, and made 22.

For the last two years (for some reason hoop-math's 2016 isn't working, but I doubt it changes things much), Salt has taken 18 shots away from the rim, and made 5 (27.8%). Wilkins has taken 120 attempts, and made 47 (39.2%). I think it's fair to say that Salt is not taking as difficult a set of shots as Wilkins. Either that or he's been flukishly lucky on at least one attempt this year.

As a corrollary, Hall, Jerome, and Guy all shoot below 40% on 2pt jumpers. I don't see anyone suggesting Wilkins or Salt is as good or better as a shooter than those guys.

Volume and degree of difficulty matter. Marshall Plumlee isn't a better 3pt shooter than Grayson Allen.

OK, you win. I really don't care that much. My point was Wilkins taking a flat-footed 15 footer is a pretty good shot for Duke.

[dukelifer]

To quantify this point, Salt has taken 5 shots away from the rim this year, and made 2. Wilkins has taken 54, and made 22.

For the last two years (for some reason hoop-math's 2016 isn't working, but I doubt it changes things much), Salt has taken 18 shots away from the rim, and made 5 (27.8%). Wilkins has taken 120 attempts, and made 47 (39.2%). I think it's fair to say that Salt is not taking as difficult a set of shots as Wilkins. Either that or he's been flukishly lucky on at least one attempt this year.

As a corrollary, Hall, Jerome, and Guy all shoot below 40% on 2pt jumpers. I don't see anyone suggesting Wilkins or Salt is as good or better as a shooter than those guys.

Volume and degree of difficulty matter. Marshall Plumlee isn't a better 3pt shooter than Grayson Allen.

Right now- I am not sure who I would take in a 3pt shooting contest ;)

[English]

I haven't checked hoop-math or anything (/s), but I did watch the game with a handful of Wahoo fans on Saturday--anecdotally, the stretch of the ~3rd quarter of the game was a lot of fun for me and not so much fun for them, as it did seem like all they got on offense were long 2pt jump shots. It became really pronounced the more it happened. It started as a comment like "wow, UVa's settling for some jumpers to start here," and ultimately crescendo'ed after the fourth, fifth, or sixth such miss and when Duke pulled ahead. I can't assign credit/blame because I haven't done a thorough breakdown of the sets, but it was stark.

[superdave]

Duke finished the phase with a 2-3 record. They blew games at St Johns and at Unc that they arguably should have been able to control and put away after building a lead.

To summarize, the team is young and is playing young. They are flat at the wrong times and either forcing things on one end or out of position on the other. The low-lights are giving up lots of offensive rebounds to Unc in the second half, not being able to guard the 3-point line vs Unc or SJU, and getting forced into being very conventional on offense in all three losses.

The higher lights are having a chance to win all three games, genuinely good defensive efforts vs ND and UVa.

While the defense has been a concern in the one and done era, the offense has looked downright predictable the last month. The ball handler is causing a lot of perimeter passing without creating any mis-matches. Duval has been sitting a fair amount in what seems to be an attempt by the coaches to slow him down and teach him to avoid the easy mistake. This is creating a lot of one on one perimeter action and less action flowing to the rim. It's forcing Bagley to forage for offense rather than using him as a battering ram. Allen is trying to facilitate more and score less. There's fewer plays for the big guys in space, and more bogging down in the lane. Defenses have figured out how to shut down the horns action we are running, and it looks really stale.

How do you open it up? Is it too late to run more set plays and pick and roll? This team should thrive on pnr rim runs for Bagley and Carter? But they are not getting them. Allen and Trent should thrive on baseline screens, but we are not seeing it.

In my mind, we need to give Duval the keys and throw away the spare set. He's explosive to say the least and should play through mistakes because he is the upside for this team. Go all in on pressing 3/4 court to control pace and on playing off Duval's penetration abilities on offense. An elite point guard sets you apart, and makes everyone better. Duval can get from raw talent to elite, because we've seen him do it for stretches. We've seen him play through foul trouble and win games. It's time to turn it over to him and push all the chips in.

Go Duke!

[Kedsy]

...the offense has looked downright predictable the last month.

Tonight we scored 1.21 points per possession against a top 30 defense. I really don't think offense was the problem.

[CDu]

Tonight we scored 1.21 points per possession against a top 30 defense. I really don't think offense was the problem.

Agreed. This was all about defense (as usual with this team). Not defending drivers well enough and getting obliterated on the offensive glass. We also really struggled to defend the 3pt line, and were fortunate that UNC missed a bunch of wide open 3s.

[superdave]

Tonight we scored 1.21 points per possession against a top 30 defense. I really don't think offense was the problem.

In a game where the gameplan was to outscore your opponent, Duke scored 9 points from the 6:32 point of the first half until intermission. They turned a 12 point lead into a 4 point lead, getting outscored 17-9. The offense looked like a clogged toilet.

They followed that up scoring 10 points the first 10 minutes of the second half. Again, the offense was forcing no switches, they were just taking two closely guarded dribbles and looking to get it to someone else. Allen can facilitate out of the pick and roll, but we are not running that so he's lost at point. Duval can create but he sat for stretches, and seems to be in the doghouse.

So yes, offense was the problem. It's not like the Unc defense should be stopping Bagley; it's that we dont come up with ways to spring Bagley to make plays. The offense has no imagination, not set plays, not quick hitters, not screening. It's all one one one, forcing guys to break someone down and make a play. And it's not working. Offense feeds defense and vice versa. The biggest issue was how a team plays so lethargically against Unc. But the bogged down offense was a direct cause of the lethargy.

Either we count on our true point guard to make everyone better or we can expect more of this.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

In a game where the gameplan was to outscore your opponent, Duke scored 9 points from the 6:32 point of the first half until intermission. They turned a 12 point lead into a 4 point lead, getting outscored 17-9. The offense looked like a clogged toilet.

They followed that up scoring 10 points the first 10 minutes of the second half. Again, the offense was forcing no switches, they were just taking two closely guarded dribbles and looking to get it to someone else. Allen can facilitate out of the pick and roll, but we are not running that so he's lost at point. Duval can create but he sat for stretches, and seems to be in the doghouse.

So yes, offense was the problem. It's not like the Unc defense should be stopping Bagley; it's that we dont come up with ways to spring Bagley to make plays. The offense has no imagination, not set plays, not quick hitters, not screening. It's all one one one, forcing guys to break someone down and make a play. And it's not working. Offense feeds defense and vice versa. The biggest issue was how a team plays so lethargically against Unc. But the bogged down offense was a direct cause of the lethargy.

Either we count on our true point guard to make everyone better or we can expect more of this.

I have no problem critiquing offense in the second half, but are you really dogging the offense in a half where we scored 49 points?

[Billy Dat]

My primary worry with the team at this point is their mental state. During the improbable comebacks that marked the pre-conference schedule, we developed a huge amount of confidence. Lately, we've been losing those games and we lack veterans who have been through the wars and can remind everyone that things can turn around. As such, K's vaunted ability to read a team and push the right buttons is more important than ever. Despite the losses, we have not yet lost a game where the outcome was decided with 2 minutes to go. The players need to understand that if we can just get a little better on defense, we'll be very tough to beat.

[CDu]

My primary worry with the team at this point is their mental state. During the improbable comebacks that marked the pre-conference schedule, we developed a huge amount of confidence. Lately, we've been losing those games and we lack veterans who have been through the wars and can remind everyone that things can turn around. As such, K's vaunted ability to read a team and push the right buttons is more important than ever. Despite the losses, we have not yet lost a game where the outcome was decided with 2 minutes to go. The players need to understand that if we can just get a little better on defense, we'll be very tough to beat.

Yeah, it's a precarious spot we're in. As you note, we aren't losing by much. And all of the losses were either on the road or against a great opponent. So even though things are going poorly, we aren't that far from being good.

That being said, losses are losses, and the emotional toll of losing 3 of 4 can add up, just like the emotional high of winning in dramatic fashion the way we did in November (or heck, the Miami game) can build you up.

Hopefully, the team gets a few wins soon and doesn't tailspin emotionally. Coaching and senior leadership are most critical right now, to keep the team from going in different directions.

There is obviously still time to right the ship. We aren't going to get the ACC regular season. We probably aren't going to get a 1 seed in the NCAAs. But we can still improve and get to the point of being the team that everyone expected/hoped for back in the Fall. And if we do, it won't matter that we are a 2 or even a 3 seed. They just have to figure it out, and they have to stay together until they can figure it out.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yeah, it's a precarious spot we're in. As you note, we aren't losing by much. And all of the losses were either on the road or against a great opponent. So even though things are going poorly, we aren't that far from being good.

That being said, losses are losses, and the emotional toll of losing 3 of 4 can add up, just like the emotional high of winning in dramatic fashion the way we did in November (or heck, the Miami game) can build you up.

Hopefully, the team gets a few wins soon and doesn't tailspin emotionally. Coaching and senior leadership are most critical right now, to keep the team from going in different directions.

There is obviously still time to right the ship. We aren't going to get the ACC regular season. We probably aren't going to get a 1 seed in the NCAAs. But we can still improve and get to the point of being the team that everyone expected/hoped for back in the Fall. And if we do, it won't matter that we are a 2 or even a 3 seed. They just have to figure it out, and they have to stay together until they can figure it out.

I still see no reason this team can't "click" and figure it out and blow the doors off someone at some point in the next few weeks. I think if they play to their potential for forty minutes and realize how much fun they can have beating the pants off a good team, it could change the course of the season in just a few hours. I was hoping last night was going to be that night, but it just didn't fall into place. UNC hit too many 3's in the first minutes to fall too far behind, and we slumped at the beginning of the second half.

[SilkyJ]

Tonight we scored 1.21 points per possession against a top 30 defense. I really don't think offense was the problem.


Agreed. This was all about defense (as usual with this team). Not defending drivers well enough and getting obliterated on the offensive glass. We also really struggled to defend the 3pt line, and were fortunate that UNC missed a bunch of wide open 3s.

I agree our defense still needs work, but the real issue was rebounding, both offensive and defensive, and our effort late. Rebounding has to be the strength of our team, and we got smoked in the 2nd half. I can't find a box score by half, but by eyes we were MUCH, MUCH worse on the glass in the 2nd half. What do you expect when Marvin doesn't come out of the game?? Grayson and Marvin can't play 40mpg every freaking game and be fresh at the end. We were standing around on the defensive glass, not boxing out, and showing no hustle. Fresher legs would lead to more hustle plays and better rebounding.

If we get a couple more O-boards and don't give them some of those 2nd chances, we may win despite our pathetic defense.

The other lever we can pull, though, is improving our our transition d and the number of straight line drives. Its like K has forgotten what got him here. Sit anyone who gets beat regularly. The bench is a powerful teaching tool. UVA seems to win plenty of games without any mickie ds. I also don't understand why we aren't icing ball screens...it worked pretty well with Jah in 2015. It protects our big men and doesn't put them in tough switches.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I agree our defense still needs work, but the real issue was rebounding, both offensive and defensive, and our effort late. Rebounding has to be the strength of our team, and we got smoked in the 2nd half. I can't find a box score by half, but by eyes we were MUCH, MUCH worse on the glass in the 2nd half. What do you expect when Marvin doesn't come out of the game?? Grayson and Marvin can't play 40mpg every freaking game and be fresh at the end. We were standing around on the defensive glass, not boxing out, and showing no hustle. Fresher legs would lead to more hustle plays and better rebounding.

If we get a couple more O-boards and don't give them some of those 2nd chances, we may win despite our pathetic defense.

The other lever we can pull, though, is improving our our transition d and the number of straight line drives. Its like K has forgotten what got him here. Sit anyone who gets beat regularly. The bench is a powerful teaching tool. UVA seems to win plenty of games without any mickie ds. I also don't understand why we aren't icing ball screens...it worked pretty well with Jah in 2015. It protects our big men and doesn't put them in tough switches.

Bagley had 15 points and 16 rebounds (and 4 assists!). I don't know that line in 39 minutes would recommend fewer minutes. As for being tired, he had a dunk and two rebounds in the last forty seconds of gameplay.

I don't see a tired Bagley at the end of games unless he's getting battered around underneath, which didn't seem to be as much of an issue last night as in some other recent games.

We made two baskets in the first almost six minutes of the second half while UNC built an eight point lead out of their halftime deficit. I don't think that's fatigue either.

[CDu]

Bagley had 15 points and 16 rebounds (and 4 assists!). I don't know that line in 39 minutes would recommend fewer minutes. As for being tired, he had a dunk and two rebounds in the last forty seconds of gameplay.

I don't see a tired Bagley at the end of games unless he's getting battered around underneath, which didn't seem to be as much of an issue last night as in some other recent games.

We made two baskets in the first almost six minutes of the second half while UNC built an eight point lead out of their halftime deficit. I don't think that's fatigue either.

I agree that Bagley wasn't the issue with the rebounding. Especially because his rebounding and defending down the stretch was quite impressive.

The issue on the boards did not appear to be fatigue. Our offensive rebounding was because UNC crowded the paint defensively. Our defensive rebounding was because they spread us out and used their quickness to beat our slower bigs to the boards.

[SilkyJ]

I agree that Bagley wasn't the issue with the rebounding. Especially because his rebounding and defending down the stretch was quite impressive.

The issue on the boards did not appear to be fatigue. Our offensive rebounding was because UNC crowded the paint defensively. Our defensive rebounding was because they spread us out and used their quickness to beat our slower bigs to the boards.

Can someone produce a halftime box score so we can look at the data? I could not find one.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Can someone produce a halftime box score so we can look at the data? I could not find one.

I referenced play by play on ESPN.

[CDu]

Can someone produce a halftime box score so we can look at the data? I could not find one.

The play-by-play is out there. Bagley had 4 rebounds and a block in the last 5 minutes of the game. O'Connell and DeLaurier each had one offensive rebound in that span. Nobody else from Duke got a rebound on either end of the floor in the last 5 minutes.

Bagley wasn't the problem with our rebounding last night.

[Kedsy]

Can someone produce a halftime box score so we can look at the data? I could not find one.

Here you go (http://www.goduke.com/fls/4200/stats/2017-18/basketball-m/du0208.htm#GAME.BX1). Our OR% in the first half was 38.9%. Our DR% in the first half was 73.7%.

Thus in the second half, our OR% was 23.5% and our DR% was 46.4%. And that pretty much was the ballgame (along with our incredibly poor 3.1% TO% for the game).


It's all one one one, forcing guys to break someone down and make a play.

I agree we had some unsuccessful hero ball at the end. But we also assisted on 63.3% of our made baskets, so I'm not sure it was all one-on-one play.

[CDu]

Here you go (http://www.goduke.com/fls/4200/stats/2017-18/basketball-m/du0208.htm#GAME.BX1). Our OR% in the first half was 38.9%. Our DR% in the first half was 73.7%.

Thus in the second half, our OR% was 23.5% and our DR% was 46.4%. And that pretty much was the ballgame (along with our incredibly poor 3.1% TO% for the game).

I agree we had some unsuccessful hero ball at the end. But we also assisted on 63.3% of our made baskets, so I'm not sure it was all one-on-one play.

Yeah, the rebounding as a team definitely got worse in the second half. A lot of that was that UNC changed its approach to put more guys in the lane. It definitely wasn't because Bagley was tired.

[Wander]

What do you expect when Marvin doesn't come out of the game?? Grayson and Marvin can't play 40mpg every freaking game and be fresh at the end. We were standing around on the defensive glass, not boxing out, and showing no hustle. Fresher legs would lead to more hustle plays and better rebounding.


Bagley was outstanding in the last 8 minutes or so of the game, and single-handedly prevented us from losing by double digits. So I don't see how his minutes are part of the issues we're having.

That said, I agree with you that our offense was part of the problem last night, despite our still-high kenpom offensive rating.

[Billy Dat]

I keep thinking about how incompatible our starting 5 is with defending small ball line-ups, which are most of the line-ups we are facing anymore, and wonder if a forthcoming coaching tweak will address this aspect of things? It wouldn't be as much of an issue if Carter could guard the perimeter (and he's not the only culprit), but teams either spread out against our zone or they put us in high ball screens and attack or shoot when we go under. If we are going to play two bigs, I feel like we need to move away from switching everything. I also wonder if we could play smaller on offense by featuring Carter away from the basket some more. I know he's only attempted 30 threes but he's hit half of them. We'd miss his o-boards, but maybe it would open things up for Grayson.

[CDu]

I keep thinking about how incompatible our starting 5 is with defending small ball line-ups, which are most of the line-ups we are facing anymore, and wonder if a forthcoming coaching tweak will address this aspect of things? It wouldn't be as much of an issue if Carter could guard the perimeter (and he's not the only culprit), but teams either spread out against our zone or they put us in high ball screens and attack or shoot when we go under. If we are going to play two bigs, I feel like we need to move away from switching everything. I also wonder if we could play smaller on offense by featuring Carter away from the basket some more. I know he's only attempted 30 threes but he's hit half of them. We'd miss his o-boards, but maybe it would open things up for Grayson.

Yeah, I remember folks in the preseason talking about how Carter was a better fit at PF next to Bolden (before we got Bagley of course). That was silliness. He's a center, and a beast defensively on the blocks. But he clearly struggles when pulled away from the basket defensively.

We've tried a number of different things so far defensively. Trapping high ball screens, hedging hard, dropping down off screens, icing, zone, switching everything. Nothing seems to be working with any consistency. I feel like the dropping down worked best with Carter. Of course, I don't think that works as well for Bolden (who is a really good hedge and recover guy) or Bagley (who isn't bad on straight switches). Which is, of course, part of the problem. Our 3 bigs each do something different well defensively on high ball screens, which is problematic for the guards and for the defense in general.

I also don't think that our guards are doing a great job of playing ball screens either. It's not all on the bigs. Duval is especially bad about simply stopping play whenever he meets a ball screen. He even occasionally gets caught stopping when he thinks the screen is coming, which leads to blow-by opportunities even when the screen doesn't happen (he has been caught flat-footed a lot).

I don't bring this up to slam Duval, and he's not alone in playing poor perimeter defense. Just to note that it's not all on the bigs here.

[SilkyJ]

Here you go (http://www.goduke.com/fls/4200/stats/2017-18/basketball-m/du0208.htm#GAME.BX1). Our OR% in the first half was 38.9%. Our DR% in the first half was 73.7%.

Thus in the second half, our OR% was 23.5% and our DR% was 46.4%. And that pretty much was the ballgame (along with our incredibly poor 3.1% TO% for the game).


Thanks, Kedsy. The numbers clearly back me up--rebounding was our issue in the 2nd half and I think Marvin's minutes contributed. More below.


The play-by-play is out there. Bagley had 4 rebounds and a block in the last 5 minutes of the game. O'Connell and DeLaurier each had one offensive rebound in that span. Nobody else from Duke got a rebound on either end of the floor in the last 5 minutes.

Bagley wasn't the problem with our rebounding last night.

What a poor use of stats, CDu. You are better than that. Absolute value is not nearly as important as reb % for obvious reasons, but since you went there: Marvin did have less rebs in the second half (7) than he did in the first (9), playing effectively the same minutes (19 in 1st vs 20 in 2nd).

But much, much more importantly Marvin rebounded a far less % of both the O and D boards.

- UNC missed 19 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 6 of them (31%)
- UNC missed 28 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 5 of them (18%)
- Duke missed 16 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 3 of them (19%)
- Duke missed 16 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 2 of them (13%)

Now, we are dealing with the law of small numbers. But Marvin rebounded a far smaller % of missed shots in the 2nd half. Wendell didn't help and that was also an issue...and making 9 FGs in the 2nd half was also an issue, but Marvin was far less effective on the defensive boards in the 2nd half, which contributed to our poor overall reb % in the 2nd half...which contributed to our loss.

(BTW, I think many on our team looked tired on D, including Grayson. We didn't get out to shooters...we got beat in transition...we are bad on D to begin with and when we are tired we can't use our athleticism to cover our mistakes. UNC missed several wide open 3s that could have really buried us.)

[jv001]

Yeah, I remember folks in the preseason talking about how Carter was a better fit at PF next to Bolden (before we got Bagley of course). That was silliness. He's a center, and a beast defensively on the blocks. But he clearly struggles when pulled away from the basket defensively.

We've tried a number of different things so far defensively. Trapping high ball screens, hedging hard, dropping down off screens, icing, zone, switching everything. Nothing seems to be working with any consistency. I feel like the dropping down worked best with Carter. Of course, I don't think that works as well for Bolden (who is a really good hedge and recover guy) or Bagley (who isn't bad on straight switches). Which is, of course, part of the problem. Our 3 bigs each do something different well defensively on high ball screens, which is problematic for the guards and for the defense in general.

I also don't think that our guards are doing a great job of playing ball screens either. It's not all on the bigs. Duval is especially bad about simply stopping play whenever he meets a ball screen. He even occasionally gets caught stopping when he thinks the screen is coming, which leads to blow-by opportunities even when the screen doesn't happen (he has been caught flat-footed a lot).

I don't bring this up to slam Duval, and he's not alone in playing poor perimeter defense. Just to note that it's not all on the bigs here.

Do you think the 1-3-1 Zone would be any different? I don't remember it being used this season but didn't we use it some in the 2015 run? With the length of our team it seems like a good defense. Maybe Coach K is just not comfortable using it. GoDuke!

[jv001]

Thanks, Kedsy. The numbers clearly back me up--rebounding was our issue in the 2nd half and I think Marvin's minutes contributed. More below.



What a poor use of stats, CDu. You are better than that. Absolute value is not nearly as important as reb % for obvious reasons, but since you went there: Marvin did have less rebs in the second half (7) than he did in the first (9), playing effectively the same minutes (19 in 1st vs 20 in 2nd).

But much, much more importantly Marvin rebounded a far less % of both the O and D boards.

- UNC missed 19 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 6 of them (31%)
- UNC missed 28 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 5 of them (18%)
- Duke missed 16 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 3 of them (19%)
- Duke missed 16 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 2 of them (13%)

Now, we are dealing with the law of small numbers. But Marvin rebounded a far smaller % of missed shots in the 2nd half. Wendell didn't help and that was also an issue...and making 9 FGs in the 2nd half was also an issue, but Marvin was far less effective on the defensive boards in the 2nd half, which contributed to our poor overall reb % in the 2nd half...which contributed to our loss.

(BTW, I think many on our team looked tired on D, including Grayson. We didn't get out to shooters...we got beat in transition...we are bad on D to begin with and when we are tired we can't use our athleticism to cover our mistakes. UNC missed several wide open 3s that could have really buried us.)

But Marvin's defense down the stretch was fantastic. Maybe he was gassed. Maybe getting him just a little rest could have helped. But you are correct, defensive rebounding killed us. GoDuke!

[DukieInBrasil]

pretty clearly, both Grayson and Trevon regressed a lot in this Phase. Neither are net positives to the performance of the team and that really, really drags the team out of "championship contender" and into "won't reach the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournament" territory. Fix that, and this team can still do amazing things.
Thinking of the UNC meltdown, both Trevon and Grayson had very, very ugly turnovers while trying to drive baseline, getting confused/panicked/worried/whatever, picked up their dribble, left their feet and just threw the ball to a UNC player. Get those 2 possessions back and Duke has a chance to win the game. Of course that can't be done, and we can only hope that they learn from it and don't do it again. My faith that this team will learn from its mistakes diminishes every game as they continue to make the same mistakes and have the same inability to focus for an entire game.
There are some great talents on this team, but so far, as of the end of Phase IV, they have not learned how to play as a cohesive team for more than about 15 minutes per game yet. Perhaps there will be a "light goes on" moment for this team, and they become really good. Perhaps not, and they remain merely "good".

[FerryFor50]

pretty clearly, both Grayson and Trevon regressed a lot in this Phase. Neither are net positives to the performance of the team and that really, really drags the team out of "championship contender" and into "won't reach the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournament" territory. Fix that, and this team can still do amazing things.
Thinking of the UNC meltdown, both Trevon and Grayson had very, very ugly turnovers while trying to drive baseline, getting confused/panicked/worried/whatever, picked up their dribble, left their feet and just threw the ball to a UNC player. Get those 2 possessions back and Duke has a chance to win the game. Of course that can't be done, and we can only hope that they learn from it and don't do it again. My faith that this team will learn from its mistakes diminishes every game as they continue to make the same mistakes and have the same inability to focus for an entire game.
There are some great talents on this team, but so far, as of the end of Phase IV, they have not learned how to play as a cohesive team for more than about 15 minutes per game yet. Perhaps there will be a "light goes on" moment for this team, and they become really good. Perhaps not, and they remain merely "good".

To be fair, Grayson's bad turnover came with less than 30 seconds left and Duke down by 4 or so. Plus, you could argue he was being ridden out of bounds on the drive, which in most realities, would be called a foul. While you'd like that possession back, I think his bigger mistakes were taking too much time getting up the court with under a minute left. He let a lot of time tick off just bringing it up. That's where Duval could have helped, but he was fouled out.

[CDu]

Thanks, Kedsy. The numbers clearly back me up--rebounding was our issue in the 2nd half and I think Marvin's minutes contributed. More below.

Rebounding was absolutely the issue in the second half. No disagreement there. But it wasn't Bagley's fault. More below.


What a poor use of stats, CDu. You are better than that. Absolute value is not nearly as important as reb % for obvious reasons, but since you went there: Marvin did have less rebs in the second half (7) than he did in the first (9), playing effectively the same minutes (19 in 1st vs 20 in 2nd).

But much, much more importantly Marvin rebounded a far less % of both the O and D boards.

- UNC missed 19 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 6 of them (31%)
- UNC missed 28 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 5 of them (18%)
- Duke missed 16 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 3 of them (19%)
- Duke missed 16 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 2 of them (13%)

Now, we are dealing with the law of small numbers. But Marvin rebounded a far smaller % of missed shots in the 2nd half. Wendell didn't help and that was also an issue...and making 9 FGs in the 2nd half was also an issue, but Marvin was far less effective on the defensive boards in the 2nd half, which contributed to our poor overall reb % in the 2nd half...which contributed to our loss.

(BTW, I think many on our team looked tired on D, including Grayson. We didn't get out to shooters...we got beat in transition...we are bad on D to begin with and when we are tired we can't use our athleticism to cover our mistakes. UNC missed several wide open 3s that could have really buried us.)

Yeah, no.

Bagley had an 18% defensive rebound rebound rate in the second half. That is a solid number. It is 1-2 rebounds different than in the first half. And a 19% versus a 13% offensive rebound rate from first half is literally 1 rebound difference.

Bagley was otherworldy rebounding in the first half. He was just very good rebounding in the second half. The difference was a whopping 2-3 rebounds. Likely statistical noise. Note: he also had 2 blocks and a steal in the last 7 minutes of the second half. He was not the problem, and fatigue was not the problem for him. The problem was that UNC changed their approach in the second half, and made life more difficult for Bagley on both ends. And we also switched defenses multiple times, which didn't help.

But the real problem is that nobody else was getting rebounds. We had at least one and often two other bigs on the floor in the second half. Those guys were not getting rebounds. Wendell Carter and Marques Bolden combined for 7 rebounds in 45 minutes. They were the rebounding problem for us in the second half. Because no player should be expected to be getting 31% of the defensive rebounds.

[kAzE]

But the real problem is that nobody else was getting rebounds. We had at least one and often two other bigs on the floor in the second half. Those guys were not getting rebounds. Wendell Carter and Marques Bolden combined for 7 rebounds in 45 minutes. They were the rebounding problem for us in the second half. Because no player should be expected to be getting 31% of the defensive rebounds.

Sounds like Jack White needs more minutes.:cool:

[CDu]

Sounds like Jack White needs more minutes.:cool:

Haha. They needed something.

I just can’t figure out how someone would go to fatigue as the reason that a guy with 4 boards, 2 blocks, and a steal in the last 7 minutes didn’t somehow average 30+% defensive rebound % in both halves. It is virtually impossible to average 30% rebound rate over any length of time unless you are just camping out near the rim a la Obi at Rice (which Bagley wasn’t doing).

Meanwhile, our other two bigs logged 45 minutes and grabbed just 7 total. Bagley matched that on his own in the second half.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Thanks, Kedsy. The numbers clearly back me up--rebounding was our issue in the 2nd half and I think Marvin's minutes contributed. More below.



What a poor use of stats, CDu. You are better than that. Absolute value is not nearly as important as reb % for obvious reasons, but since you went there: Marvin did have less rebs in the second half (7) than he did in the first (9), playing effectively the same minutes (19 in 1st vs 20 in 2nd).

But much, much more importantly Marvin rebounded a far less % of both the O and D boards.

- UNC missed 19 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 6 of them (31%)
- UNC missed 28 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 5 of them (18%)
- Duke missed 16 shots in the 1st half and Marvin got 3 of them (19%)
- Duke missed 16 shots in the 2nd half and Marvin got 2 of them (13%)

Now, we are dealing with the law of small numbers. But Marvin rebounded a far smaller % of missed shots in the 2nd half. Wendell didn't help and that was also an issue...and making 9 FGs in the 2nd half was also an issue, but Marvin was far less effective on the defensive boards in the 2nd half, which contributed to our poor overall reb % in the 2nd half...which contributed to our loss.

(BTW, I think many on our team looked tired on D, including Grayson. We didn't get out to shooters...we got beat in transition...we are bad on D to begin with and when we are tired we can't use our athleticism to cover our mistakes. UNC missed several wide open 3s that could have really buried us.)

I am with CDu here. If you are arguing that Bagley was gassed, why even include the first part of the second half in your analysis, when he was more rested than the late first half? Would a tired player be better in the first five minutes of the half rather than the last, when Bagley excelled?

He is a 19 year old kid with great conditioning who had five days between games. I am not saying it is impossible for Bagley to get gassed (though he does seem superhuman) just that I see no evidence of it. At least my eye test watching last night and your numbers don't convince me as such.

Edit: also, a lot of those open three UNC got were very early in the game. I might buy fatigue for lazy defense later on, but not the first twelve minutes when the only thing keeping them close was Williams' hot hand.

[lotusland]

I haven’t enjoyed this phase much. Hope the next one is more fun.

[devilsince1977]

This phase was defined by defensive rebounding. In my opinion, it is a direct result of a several shortcomings.

First and least significant - Marquis and Javin injuries
Second - no one on this team ever blocks out. They jump for the ball, which worked in High School, but not in college.
Third - The back court, with a few exceptions, does not rebound at all.
Fourth and most significant- poor pick and roll defense. They almost never "fight" through a screen, usually they allow themselves to be screened. Our big men end up 20 ft from the hoop and our perimeter players get stuck trying to rebound against the other teams bigs.

[jv001]

This phase was defined by defensive rebounding. In my opinion, it is a direct result of a several shortcomings.

First and least significant - Marquis and Javin injuries
Second - no one on this team ever blocks out. They jump for the ball, which worked in High School, but not in college.
Third - The back court, with a few exceptions, does not rebound at all.
Fourth and most significant- poor pick and roll defense. They almost never "fight" through a screen, usually they allow themselves to be screened. Our big men end up 20 ft from the hoop and our perimeter players get stuck trying to rebound against the other teams bigs.

The exception= Grayson Allen with 3.5 rpg and Trent with 4.2rpg. Duval not the exception with 1.9 rpg. Compared to Tyus "Stones" Jones who had 3.5rpg and Quinn Cook with 3.4rpg.in 2015. So, the only guard that doesn't hit the boards seems to be Trevon. I believe part of that is his looking to push the ball back down court and that may be by design(coaches). GoDuke!

[devilsince1977]

The exception= Grayson Allen with 3.5 rpg and Trent with 4.2rpg. Duval not the exception with 1.9 rpg. Compared to Tyus "Stones" Jones who had 3.5rpg and Quinn Cook with 3.4rpg.in 2015. So, the only guard that doesn't hit the boards seems to be Trevon. I believe part of that is his looking to push the ball back down court and that may be by design(coaches). GoDuke!

I was talking about defensive rebounds. Grayson averages 2.9 per game, Gary 3.2 and Trevon 1.4. That is 7.5 per game. With the heavy minutes they play it is not good. Also Tyus and Quinn were about 6'1 while Trevon and Grayson are taller and elite jumpers. Gary plays the baseline on the zone or is guarding the other teams largest perimeter player. He is in position to get more rebounds. In the 5 loses they are averaging 5.8 per game. Sorry, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. You can't push the ball down the court without rebounding it. So, I doubt Trevon is told not to worry about rebounding.


If you think those are strong numbers, fine. I don't.

The exception I was talking about was Grayson's 11 rebound game against Wake.

[Kedsy]

I was talking about defensive rebounds. Grayson averages 2.9 per game, Gary 3.2 and Trevon 1.4. That is 7.5 per game. With the heavy minutes they play it is not good. Also Tyus and Quinn were about 6'1 while Trevon and Grayson are taller and elite jumpers. Gary plays the baseline on the zone or is guarding the other teams largest perimeter player. He is in position to get more rebounds. In the 5 loses they are averaging 5.8 per game. Sorry, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. You can't push the ball down the court without rebounding it. So, I doubt Trevon is told not to worry about rebounding.


If you think those are strong numbers, fine. I don't.

The exception I was talking about was Grayson's 11 rebound game against Wake.

After Justise moved up to PF, our starting perimeter was Tyus Jones (3.0 def reb per game), Quinn Cook (3.0 drpg) and Matt Jones (1.5 drpg), for a total of 7.5 drpg. Our starting perimeter now is (as you pointed out) Gary Trent (3.2 drpg), Grayson Allen (2.9 drpg), and Trevon Duval (1.4 drpg), for a total of 7.5 drpg.

Also, while height and jumping ability may have some bearing on the rare occasions when a guard goes "in among the trees" to snare an interior rebound, the vast majority of perimeter player rebounds happen, not surprisingly, out on the perimeter, on long rebounds. And in those cases, height and jumping ability have a lot less bearing than positioning and boxing out (plus, to a large extent, luck).

In any event, it's hard to fathom why 7.5 drpg from the perimeter might have been acceptable in 2015 but the exact same number is not acceptable now.

(FWIW, the entire team is slightly better at defensive rebounding this season then we were in 2015, but it's pretty close.)

[Saratoga2]

Sounds like Jack White needs more minutes.:cool:

AOC got 3 rebounds in 18 total minutes. Not bad for a guard/SF.

[Ian]

After Justise moved up to PF, our starting perimeter was Tyus Jones (3.0 def reb per game), Quinn Cook (3.0 drpg) and Matt Jones (1.5 drpg), for a total of 7.5 drpg. Our starting perimeter now is (as you pointed out) Gary Trent (3.2 drpg), Grayson Allen (2.9 drpg), and Trevon Duval (1.4 drpg), for a total of 7.5 drpg.

Also, while height and jumping ability may have some bearing on the rare occasions when a guard goes "in among the trees" to snare an interior rebound, the vast majority of perimeter player rebounds happen, not surprisingly, out on the perimeter, on long rebounds. And in those cases, height and jumping ability have a lot less bearing than positioning and boxing out (plus, to a large extent, luck).

In any event, it's hard to fathom why 7.5 drpg from the perimeter might have been acceptable in 2015 but the exact same number is not acceptable now.

(FWIW, the entire team is slightly better at defensive rebounding this season then we were in 2015, but it's pretty close.)

Because in 2015 we played small ball, and purposely exchanged the ability to rebound in return for quickness on the perimeter. In 2015 we were among to top teams in the country in opponents 3PT% and forcing Turnovers. This year we're playing big and are terrible are defending the 3 and forcing turnovers, so we need to do much better on rebounding to make up for it.
Further more, your numbers are off because in 15 we played a much slower tempo of 66 possession per game versus 71 ppg in 2018, add that to the fact this year's trio actually averages 6 more total minutes played per game means this year's trio is not rebounding nearly as well as the perimeter did in 2015.

[devilsince1977]

After Justise moved up to PF, our starting perimeter was Tyus Jones (3.0 def reb per game), Quinn Cook (3.0 drpg) and Matt Jones (1.5 drpg), for a total of 7.5 drpg. Our starting perimeter now is (as you pointed out) Gary Trent (3.2 drpg), Grayson Allen (2.9 drpg), and Trevon Duval (1.4 drpg), for a total of 7.5 drpg.

Also, while height and jumping ability may have some bearing on the rare occasions when a guard goes "in among the trees" to snare an interior rebound, the vast majority of perimeter player rebounds happen, not surprisingly, out on the perimeter, on long rebounds. And in those cases, height and jumping ability have a lot less bearing than positioning and boxing out (plus, to a large extent, luck).

In any event, it's hard to fathom why 7.5 drpg from the perimeter might have been acceptable in 2015 but the exact same number is not acceptable now.

(FWIW, the entire team is slightly better at defensive rebounding this season then we were in 2015, but it's pretty close.)

I never compared 2018 to 2015. But since you brought it up; Justise didn't move to starting PF until the Clemson game in on Feb. 21st, Plus he still played the 3 for several minutes a game after the change. Justise averaged 5.2 drpg for the season. Your 7.5 per game number is cherry picking stats since you totally eliminate Justise's time playing at the 3. Which was at least half of his minutes for the season. This years starters have not changed so the stats are less distorted than 2015.

Size and leaping ability may not be as important for the perimeter players as the bigs, but is sure doesn't hurt. The fact that Tyus and Quinn were getting 6 per game; while Trevon and Grayson are only getting 4.3 could be evidence that Trevon and Grayson need to do better. Luck tends to come to those who are in position to receive it.

[Kedsy]

Because in 2015 we played small ball, and purposely exchanged the ability to rebound in return for quickness on the perimeter. In 2015 we were among to top teams in the country in opponents 3PT% and forcing Turnovers. This year we're playing big and are terrible are defending the 3 and forcing turnovers, so we need to do much better on rebounding to make up for it.
Further more, your numbers are off because in 15 we played a much slower tempo of 66 possession per game versus 71 ppg in 2018, add that to the fact this year's trio actually averages 6 more total minutes played per game means this year's trio is not rebounding nearly as well as the perimeter did in 2015.

Well, first of all the 2015 was tied for 220th in opposing turnover percentage, so not really among the top teams in the country at forcing turnovers (we were 37th in total turnovers forced, but that's mostly because we played more games than most teams; on a percentage basis we were much closer to the bottom third). Second, while it's true the 2015 team held its opponents to a lower 3-point percentage, this year's team holds its opponents to a lower 2-point percentage. The result being that the opposing eFG% are not very different (46.5% in 2015 and 47.1% this season). So there wasn't as much justification for lower rebounding in 2015 as you suggest.

And if you'd rather go with DR% to counteract the discrepancies in possessions and minutes, there's still not much difference:

Tyus: 9.9%
Quinn: 9.2%
Matt: 7.4%

Gary: 9.7%
Grayson: 8.6%
Trevon: 4.9%

Some difference, but not all that much, especially when you factor in that on a percentage basis, this season's perimeter guys are competing with a lot more big guys for the boards.

Again, if the 2015 perimeter players were satisfactory at defensive rebounding, then this year's perimeter guys' defensive rebounding is not what's causing the problem (with the caveat that our overall defensive rebounding was still unacceptable in the UNC and St. John's games).

[Kedsy]

I was talking about defensive rebounds. Grayson averages 2.9 per game, Gary 3.2 and Trevon 1.4. That is 7.5 per game. With the heavy minutes they play it is not good. Also Tyus and Quinn were about 6'1 while Trevon and Grayson are taller and elite jumpers.


I never compared 2018 to 2015.

OK, if you say so.

[Kedsy]

But since you brought it up; Justise didn't move to starting PF until the Clemson game in on Feb. 21st,

Also, since our 2015 defense was not all that good before 2/21/15 and got a lot better after, I don't think the comparison is cherry-picking at all.

[devilsince1977]

OK, if you say so.

In my original post listing problems with the defensive rebounding; I didn't mention 2015. I did later compare the backcourt size and athleticism in response to jv100. So I did compare players from both teams. I stand corrected.

Here is my "Cherry Picking" - In the six NCAA tournaments games in 2015 Justise played 178 total minutes. I added up the minutes played by Jah, Marshall and Amile, subtracted that from 80 minutes(the center and PF minutes) which left 109 total PF minutes for Justise. That leaves Justise playing 69 minutes or 38.8% of his minutes as a 3 in the tournament. He had a total of 52 DRB. 38.8% of the 52 rebounds is 20.2 rebounds. That is 3.4 perimeter drpg. Add that to the 7.5 drpg and you end up with 10.9 drpg for the perimeter players in the 2015 NCAAT; when Duke was a good to very good defensive team. 2015. That is a significant difference and one that the 2018 perimeter players should strive for. It they had 11 drb instead of 6 drb verses UNC, that would equal 5 less shots for UNC and 5 more shots for Duke. With 10 more shots the shot disparity is much less and Duke almost certainly wins.

We are not a good defensive team so far this year and defensive rebounding in our losses has not been very good. The starting perimeter players are getting 5.8 drpg in those losses.

In this phase, DRB by the perimeter was not a strength and in the losses it was a weakness.

[Kedsy]

In my original post listing problems with the defensive rebounding; I didn't mention 2015. I did later compare the backcourt size and athleticism in response to jv100. So I did compare players from both teams. I stand corrected.

Here is my "Cherry Picking" - In the six NCAA tournaments games in 2015 Justise played 178 total minutes. I added up the minutes played by Jah, Marshall and Amile, subtracted that from 80 minutes(the center and PF minutes) which left 109 total PF minutes for Justise. That leaves Justise playing 69 minutes or 38.8% of his minutes as a 3 in the tournament. He had a total of 52 DRB. 38.8% of the 52 rebounds is 20.2 rebounds. That is 3.4 perimeter drpg. Add that to the 7.5 drpg and you end up with 10.9 drpg for the perimeter players in the 2015 NCAAT; when Duke was a good to very good defensive team. 2015. That is a significant difference and one that the 2018 perimeter players should strive for. It they had 11 drb instead of 6 drb verses UNC, that would equal 5 less shots for UNC and 5 more shots for Duke. With 10 more shots the shot disparity is much less and Duke almost certainly wins.

We are not a good defensive team so far this year and defensive rebounding in our losses has not been very good. The starting perimeter players are getting 5.8 drpg in those losses.

In this phase, DRB by the perimeter was not a strength and in the losses it was a weakness.

We are not a bad defensive rebounding team this year (for Duke, we're the 2nd best ever), but in 3 of our 5 losses I agree it was a weakness.

Since PFs get more rebounding opportunities than SFs, I'm not sure you can simply apply a straight percentage like you did, but I don't really have a better alternative for an estimate. Though if you're going to add a non-starter's rebounds to the 2015 group then you'd have to add, e.g, Alex O'Connell's and Javin DeLaurier's and Marvin Bagley's (and lately Jack White's) wing minutes as well (there are an average of 24 perimeter minutes which were not taken up by GA/GT/TD this season), which would add to the 2018 wing totals.

Using our imperfect estimate, I've compared this year's perimeter rebounding in our losses to our 2015 championship team's perimeter rebounding during the NCAA tournament. Using your straight line formula for Justise Winslow's perimeter minutes in 2015 and Marvin Bagley's perimeter minutes in 2018, it looks like during the 2015 tournament run our perimeter players grabbed approximately 29.4% of available defensive rebounds while during this year's losses our perimeter players grabbed 18.3% of available defensive rebounds. So if our perimeter players had rebounded like national champions during the championship run, they would have grabbed a bit less than 4 additional defensive rebounds per loss. Which probably would have helped, since all five losses were relatively close.

Except they were losses -- can you really expect a team to rebound like champions during losses? For example, in our 2015 loss to NC State, our perimeter players only rebounded 13.6% of available defensive rebounds, worse than our current team in its average loss.

I conclude our perimeter players could have rebounded better in our losses (though of course our interior players could have rebounded better in our losses too), but I still disagree it was the primary reason for the Ls.

[Kedsy]

We are not a bad defensive rebounding team this year (for Duke, we're the 2nd best ever), but in 3 of our 5 losses I agree it was a weakness.

Since PFs get more rebounding opportunities than SFs, I'm not sure you can simply apply a straight percentage like you did, but I don't really have a better alternative for an estimate. Though if you're going to add a non-starter's rebounds to the 2015 group then you'd have to add, e.g, Alex O'Connell's and Javin DeLaurier's and Marvin Bagley's (and lately Jack White's) wing minutes as well (there are an average of 24 perimeter minutes which were not taken up by GA/GT/TD this season), which would add to the 2018 wing totals.

Using our imperfect estimate, I've compared this year's perimeter rebounding in our losses to our 2015 championship team's perimeter rebounding during the NCAA tournament. Using your straight line formula for Justise Winslow's perimeter minutes in 2015 and Marvin Bagley's perimeter minutes in 2018, it looks like during the 2015 tournament run our perimeter players grabbed approximately 29.4% of available defensive rebounds while during this year's losses our perimeter players grabbed 18.3% of available defensive rebounds. So if our perimeter players had rebounded like national champions during the championship run, they would have grabbed a bit less than 4 additional defensive rebounds per loss. Which probably would have helped, since all five losses were relatively close.

Except they were losses -- can you really expect a team to rebound like champions during losses? For example, in our 2015 loss to NC State, our perimeter players only rebounded 13.6% of available defensive rebounds, worse than our current team in its average loss.

I conclude our perimeter players could have rebounded better in our losses (though of course our interior players could have rebounded better in our losses too), but I still disagree it was the primary reason for the Ls.

Actually, the more I think about it, my analysis isn't entirely correct. The perimeter players from 2015, playing in full championship form, might have obtained almost 4 additional defensive rebounds per 2018 loss, but more than 70% of those rebounds went to Duke anyway (grabbed by the 2018 Duke bigs). So really, the difference comes out to a little more than one (1) defensive rebound per game that the perimeter players might have taken away from our opponents.

Would an additional defensive rebound per game have helped us, in five games decided by an average of 5 points per game? Sure. Would it have turned any of those losses into wins? I don't think there's any way to tell. Was that one extra rebound the primary reason for our losses. I've upped my opinion to "no way."

[SilkyJ]

But Marvin's defense down the stretch was fantastic. Maybe he was gassed. Maybe getting him just a little rest could have helped. But you are correct, defensive rebounding killed us. GoDuke!

He had one cool block. Come on.


Rebounding was absolutely the issue in the second half. No disagreement there. But it wasn't Bagley's fault. More below.

Yeah, no.

Bagley had an 18% defensive rebound rebound rate in the second half. That is a solid number. It is 1-2 rebounds different than in the first half. And a 19% versus a 13% offensive rebound rate from first half is literally 1 rebound difference.

Bagley was otherworldy rebounding in the first half. He was just very good rebounding in the second half. The difference was a whopping 2-3 rebounds. Likely statistical noise. Note: he also had 2 blocks and a steal in the last 7 minutes of the second half. He was not the problem, and fatigue was not the problem for him. The problem was that UNC changed their approach in the second half, and made life more difficult for Bagley on both ends. And we also switched defenses multiple times, which didn't help.

But the real problem is that nobody else was getting rebounds. We had at least one and often two other bigs on the floor in the second half. Those guys were not getting rebounds. Wendell Carter and Marques Bolden combined for 7 rebounds in 45 minutes. They were the rebounding problem for us in the second half. Because no player should be expected to be getting 31% of the defensive rebounds.


I am with CDu here. If you are arguing that Bagley was gassed, why even include the first part of the second half in your analysis, when he was more rested than the late first half? Would a tired player be better in the first five minutes of the half rather than the last, when Bagley excelled?

He is a 19 year old kid with great conditioning who had five days between games. I am not saying it is impossible for Bagley to get gassed (though he does seem superhuman) just that I see no evidence of it. At least my eye test watching last night and your numbers don't convince me as such.

Edit: also, a lot of those open three UNC got were very early in the game. I might buy fatigue for lazy defense later on, but not the first twelve minutes when the only thing keeping them close was Williams' hot hand.

I'll concede that we are dealing with the law of small numbers, but I am factoring in my "eye test" here and I think Marvin, and others on the team, looked tired. Maybe they were just being lazy, but we got beat in transition several times and didn't seem to have pop on defense/the boards. They were just way more active than we were. You can ignore the numbers if you want, but the facts are that we got beat in transition several times and his reb% was lower in the 2nd half.

Now, our defense was also just bad.

the 1:52 mark here. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JiJGOioFhzw)..I mean Marvin is still in the paint when Williams catches it 30 feet from the hoop on the wing. That's just unacceptable. (The at the 2:07 mark he puts his head down as he runs back...that's usually a sign of being tired. This doesn't have all the UNC transition buckets, but my guess is there are a couple that look like that.)

UNC is also a touch matchup for us b/c their bigs take ours out of the paint they shoot 3s well (and we defend 3s poorly). So there's a lot going on here and I don't think there's a silver bullet, but I do think that having our best players be a bit fresher would help)


Also, since our 2015 defense was not all that good before 2/21/15 and got a lot better after, I don't think the comparison is cherry-picking at all.

You are smart to remind us of this. Our Kenpom D-rating was in the 50s IIRC heading into march and finished at 11? I always forget this and have to hope that our defense gels with experience...its just tough to rely on our defense getting hot in March.