Starting 5 in the NBA

[BullBlue]

This is a really fun team to watch this year, we are blessed with a starting 5 of future NBA players. Almost all the draft boards have 4 of our starting 5 going in the first round and some with Gary in the second round - although if he keeps playing like he has lately, he may end up in the first round, too.

I am not looking toward the end of the season and the draft - I'm like a lot of other people on this board, I would love to see our best players stick around for more than one year. That is one reason why I like Grayson Allen so much. But, I was thinking, how lucky are we this year to have this starting 5? Marvin, Wendell, and Trevon will all probably be starting for some NBA team in the future, and maybe Grayson and Gary, also. It unlikely to ever happen, but what if, say in about 5-7 years they were all on the same NBA team. Would they all be starting? How good would that team be?

Thoughts?

And beat Wake tonight!

[DukieInBrasil]

This is a really fun team to watch this year, we are blessed with a starting 5 of future NBA players. Almost all the draft boards have 4 of our starting 5 going in the first round and some with Gary in the second round - although if he keeps playing like he has lately, he may end up in the first round, too.

I am not looking toward the end of the season and the draft - I'm like a lot of other people on this board, I would love to see our best players stick around for more than one year. That is one reason why I like Grayson Allen so much. But, I was thinking, how lucky are we this year to have this starting 5? Marvin, Wendell, and Trevon will all probably be starting for some NBA team in the future, and maybe Grayson and Gary, also. It unlikely to ever happen, but what if, say in about 5-7 years they were all on the same NBA team. Would they all be starting? How good would that team be?

Thoughts?

And beat Wake tonight!

Withe right coach, the right scheme and the right bench it could be a great team. Withe wrong coach etc it could be a terrible team. Or anywhere in between. These guys are so young right now that i have a hard time predicting anything from them either individually or as a unit. Gary could develop into a great defender at the NBA 2/3 spot, and if so be a great 3-n-D player, or not. Grayson could become a better than competent passer and improve his D and become a decent combo guard, or not. Etc.
I do think that our starting 5 will all play in the NBA, barring injury. Grayson and Gary are the biggest questions to me right now. Grayson because he can be great at times, but he has to be totally healthy to not be a liability due to his style of play (for the NBA, he's still a quality although reduced player while injured at Duke). Gary has been pretty streaky so far, and when he's on he is extremely valuable. Marvin looks like he could become great. Wendell looks like he could also be great. Trevon looks like he could really drive a fine-tuned sports car type team really well.

But i'm gonna spend more time pulling for them this year to win Natty 6 than i will about their NBA potential. And i agree, beat Wake!!!

[kAzE]

It's too hard to say, because we have no idea how these guys will develop in the next 5-6 years, at which point they will be more or a less finished product. But if I had to guess, I'd say this would be a bottom feeding NBA team if these 5 are the starting 5. For a college team, it's an embarrassment of riches, but for an NBA team, it's way below average.

Bagley is a future multi-time (if not perennial) all star. Carter is probably just a tier or 2 below him. Those 2 would be the foundation of that team. However, Grayson and Gary seem destined to be role players, bench guys who would play between 10 and 20 minutes for most teams. I do think Gary will be a very good shooter in the NBA, but his lack of speed and athleticism will hurt him at the next level. He's had problems scoring in the paint in college, and that will only get worse at the next level.

Duval is the biggest wild card. His shooting will need to improve to become a successful starting point guard. Point guards without a jump shot (Rubio, Rose, Payton, Rondo) are less effective than they once were due to the way the league has evolved. It's just too hard to be a point guard in the NBA without a reliable jump shot now. If he can get his jumper to the point where opponents have to guard him out there, he'll have a much better chance. Point guard is the deepest position in the league, so he really needs to stand out to win a starting job.

[Kedsy]

This is a really fun team to watch this year, we are blessed with a starting 5 of future NBA players. Almost all the draft boards have 4 of our starting 5 going in the first round and some with Gary in the second round - although if he keeps playing like he has lately, he may end up in the first round, too.

I am not looking toward the end of the season and the draft - I'm like a lot of other people on this board, I would love to see our best players stick around for more than one year. That is one reason why I like Grayson Allen so much. But, I was thinking, how lucky are we this year to have this starting 5? Marvin, Wendell, and Trevon will all probably be starting for some NBA team in the future, and maybe Grayson and Gary, also. It unlikely to ever happen, but what if, say in about 5-7 years they were all on the same NBA team. Would they all be starting? How good would that team be?

Thoughts?

And beat Wake tonight!

In the New Orleans Pelicans' last game, this was the starting lineup:

Anthony Davis
DeMarcus Cousins
Rajon Rondo
Jrue Holiday
E'Twaun Moore

That team is 25-21 and is not a lock to make the playoffs.

[cato]

Hey, remember when Duke started five NBA players? Duhon, Williams, Dunleavy, Battier and Boozer. These players will have to develop well, avoid injuries (and motorcycles in particular) and get lucky to pass their collective achievements.

[kAzE]

This thread would actually be interesting with next year's starting 5.

[thedukelamere]

This thread would actually be interesting with next year's starting 5.

Here's a serious thought experiment; with the team we have coming in, who would you rather have stay for their sophomore year? MBIII or Wendell? Obviously Bags is a generational talent and seems like the obvious answer, but the more I think about it WCJr might be a better 5 on that roster.

Wouldn't need as many touches. Happy to clean up and throw down.

But... Bags/RJ/Zion running a three man weave on every fast break sounds delightful.

[flyingdutchdevil]

This thread would actually be interesting with next year's starting 5.

I'd argue that there are more potential NBA starters in Trevon, Grayson, Trent, Marvin, and Carter than Tre, RJ, Cam, Zion, and Marques, even if the latter 5 has more "All Star" power.

To me, Trevon, Marvin, and Carter should be starters for a bulk of their career (especially if Trevon can work on his shot and Carter becomes better on D). Trent is a really good player who is coming in at the weakest position in the NBA (SG). He has length but lacks elite athleticism. Marvin is a no-brainer.

RJ, Cam, and Zion are the only players with really good starting potential. I'm not sure anyone is forecasting Marques as an NBA starter and Tre needs to show he can score anywhere near as well as his brother can.

But if you're talking star power, then next year's class takes the cake. RJ and Cam are incredible and Zion is a unicorn. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say Cam will have the best NBA career of all 10 starters.

[kAzE]

I'd argue that there are more potential NBA starters in Trevon, Grayson, Trent, Marvin, and Carter than Tre, RJ, Cam, Zion, and Marques, even if the latter 5 has more "All Star" power.

To me, Trevon, Marvin, and Carter should be starters for a bulk of their career (especially if Trevon can work on his shot and Carter becomes better on D). Trent is a really good player who is coming in at the weakest position in the NBA (SG). He has length but lacks elite athleticism. Marvin is a no-brainer.

RJ, Cam, and Zion are the only players with really good starting potential. I'm not sure anyone is forecasting Marques as an NBA starter and Tre needs to show he can score anywhere near as well as his brother can.

But if you're talking star power, then next year's class takes the cake. RJ and Cam are incredible and Zion is a unicorn. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say Cam will have the best NBA career of all 10 starters.

If we're just ranking them by talent alone, Reddish looks like the guy, but the questions about his motor and competitive drive make me lean towards Barrett. We're going on barely any data points right now, but I've actually seen that guy step up and deliver in an elimination style game against equal, if not better talent (Cam was on the other team after all).

Barrett seems like he could become a taller version of James Harden.

But to your larger point, I think I'd take next year's 5 over this year's, even with fewer NBA starters. The NBA is all about star power, and next year's 5 has more of it. Just look at any of LeBron's Cavs teams early in his career. It's not about how good your team is from top to bottom, it's about how good your team is at the top. Depth matters in the regular season, but star power wins playoffs series.

[flyingdutchdevil]

If we're just ranking them by talent alone, Cam looks like the guy, but the questions about his motor and competitive drive make me lean towards Barrett. We're going on barely any data points right now, but I've actually seen that guy step up and deliver in an elimination style game against equal, if not better talent (Cam was on the other team after all).

Barrett seems like he could become a taller version of James Harden.

But to your larger point, I think I'd take next year's 5 over this year's, even with fewer NBA starters. The NBA is all about star power, and next year's 5 has more of it. Just look at any of LeBron's Cavs teams early in his career. It's not about how good your team is from top to bottom, it's about how good your team is at the top.

Ah...but that's not the question the OP proposed, my friend.

I agree with you that next year's talent is more "top heavy" because of Cam and Barrett. And I'd probably take next year's team as well, even though no one can guard Bagley (but at the same time, can this team guard Cam and Barrett? Most certainly not). And I too would take next year's team in an elimination game.

[kAzE]

Ah...but that's not the question the OP proposed, my friend.

I agree with you that next year's talent is more "top heavy" because of Cam and Barrett. And I'd probably take next year's team as well, even though no one can guard Bagley (but at the same time, can this team guard Cam and Barrett? Most certainly not). And I too would take next year's team in an elimination game.

Well, he/she asked a bunch of questions, none of which had anything to do with the 2018 class. I'm the master of taking threads off topic, after all :D

Here's another one: what if we combined all the players from 2017 and 2018? Would that be a competitive NBA team? I think the answer is yes. Probably a competitive playoff team if they are all in their primes. It would be slightly weak at PG, but a Duval/Barrett/Reddish/Bagley/Carter lineup with Zion, Trent, Allen, and Jones off the bench would probably be one of the more talented teams in the league.

[Saratoga2]

Withe right coach, the right scheme and the right bench it could be a great team. Withe wrong coach etc it could be a terrible team. Or anywhere in between. These guys are so young right now that i have a hard time predicting anything from them either individually or as a unit. Gary could develop into a great defender at the NBA 2/3 spot, and if so be a great 3-n-D player, or not. Grayson could become a better than competent passer and improve his D and become a decent combo guard, or not. Etc.
I do think that our starting 5 will all play in the NBA, barring injury. Grayson and Gary are the biggest questions to me right now. Grayson because he can be great at times, but he has to be totally healthy to not be a liability due to his style of play (for the NBA, he's still a quality although reduced player while injured at Duke). Gary has been pretty streaky so far, and when he's on he is extremely valuable. Marvin looks like he could become great. Wendell looks like he could also be great. Trevon looks like he could really drive a fine-tuned sports car type team really well.

But i'm gonna spend more time pulling for them this year to win Natty 6 than i will about their NBA potential. And i agree, beat Wake!!!

Right now Gary seems to have a better likelihood of making the first round as he has height over Grayson and seems to shoot as well or better and is solid defensively. If he keeps it going at Duke, his stock can only rise. Grayson's main claim to fame is his scoring. He won't get to the rim in the NBA and is handle is only adequate. His perimeter shooting, at least for now, is more suspect. Since he is probably would be looked at as an undersized shooting guard I believe he will fall into the second round.

[Kedsy]

His perimeter shooting, at least for now, is more suspect.

This might be true if all you looked at was the last few games. I'm not an NBA scout, but my guess is they don't restrict themselves that way.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, he/she asked a bunch of questions, none of which had anything to do with the 2018 class. I'm the master of taking threads off topic, after all :D

Here's another one: what if we combined all the players from 2017 and 2018? Would that be a competitive NBA team? I think the answer is yes. Probably a competitive playoff team if they are all in their primes. It would be slightly weak at PG, but a Duval/Barrett/Reddish/Bagley/Carter lineup with Zion, Trent, Allen, and Jones off the bench would probably be one of the more talented teams in the league.

I think you have some amazing wings, but I'm not so sure on guards. Between Duval and Tre, I'd be surprised if either has All-Star potential. I'm also not as high on the 5s (Carter, Marques) in terms of NBA potential as a lot of folks here. Also, fair to say they'd be terrible at defense for the next half-decade :D

A line-up of Duval, RJ, Cam, Bags, and Carter could be very, very competitive. You have more than enough athleticism and size. Shooting may be an issue with only RJ and Cam as legitimate threats and Carter as a spot-up/opportunistic shooter. And defense is, well, you know...

[flyingdutchdevil]

Right now Gary seems to have a better likelihood of making the first round as he has height over Grayson and seems to shoot as well or better and is solid defensively. If he keeps it going at Duke, his stock can only rise. Grayson's main claim to fame is his scoring. He won't get to the rim in the NBA and is handle is only adequate. His perimeter shooting, at least for now, is more suspect. Since he is probably would be looked at as an undersized shooting guard I believe he will fall into the second round.

Grayson's issue is his only elite skill that will translate to the NBA is shooting. He's a great shooter, no doubt about it. Don't let this 2018 slump fool you. He's that good.

The handle, distribution, and driving are good, but not real assets in the NBA. His size will certainly hurt him if he's only considered a 2.

But Grayson also has incredible tenacity and passion. We haven't seen as much of that passion this year, but there is a clear reason for that.

IMO, I think Grayson is a late first rounder. He may fall into the second round, but some team will be mighty fortunate to pick him up then.

[uh_no]

Grayson's issue is his only elite skill that will translate to the NBA is shooting. He's a great shooter, no doubt about it. Don't let this 2018 slump fool you. He's that good.

The handle, distribution, and driving are good, but not real assets in the NBA. His size will certainly hurt him if he's only considered a 2.

But Grayson also has incredible tenacity and passion. We haven't seen as much of that passion this year, but there is a clear reason for that.

IMO, I think Grayson is a late first rounder. He may fall into the second round, but some team will be mighty fortunate to pick him up then.


If there's a place in the NBA for austin rivers, there sure as heck is for grayson allen.

[kAzE]

I think you have some amazing wings, but I'm not so sure on guards. Between Duval and Tre, I'd be surprised if either has All-Star potential. I'm also not as high on the 5s (Carter, Marques) in terms of NBA potential as a lot of folks here. Also, fair to say they'd be terrible at defense for the next half-decade :D

A line-up of Duval, RJ, Cam, Bags, and Carter could be very, very competitive. You have more than enough athleticism and size. Shooting may be an issue with only RJ and Cam as legitimate threats and Carter as a spot-up/opportunistic shooter. And defense is, well, you know...

Keep mind I did qualify that team "with everyone in their primes." These guys all have a lot of developing left to do at this stage, especially as defenders.

I think Bagley will eventually develop at least a pretty good mid range jumper, if not full 3 point range. It's almost a given that power forwards need to be able to shoot in the NBA, and if guys like Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, Al Horford, and DeMarcus Cousins (none of whom shot 3s in college) are now prolific jump shooters, you have to imagine Bagley follows a similar path.

The point guard issue could maybe be solved by Barrett, depending on how accurate my James Harden comparison really is. He (or maybe even Reddish) could conceivably run the show for an NBA team, perhaps allowing Zion/Trent/Allen to break into the starting 5 over Duval.

[cato]

If there's a place in the NBA for austin rivers, there sure as heck is for grayson allen.

Perhaps. Grayson has a long way to go to match Austin’s defensive abilities. Also, Austin is only three years older, but this is his sixth year in the league.

[Kedsy]

Perhaps. Grayson has a long way to go to match Austin’s defensive abilities.

Maybe. Do you remember Austin's D at Duke?

[cato]

Maybe. Do you remember Austin's D at Duke?

Maybe what? Maybe Grayson has a long way to go, or maybe he can get there?

If Austin had not vastly improved his defensive effort/abilities, he would be out of the league (dad or no). The fact that he was a lottery pick and young may have given him the time/chance to do so. I’m not sure Grayson will get the same chance, although I am certainly hoping he can.

[Kedsy]

Maybe what? Maybe Grayson has a long way to go, or maybe he can get there?

If Austin had not vastly improved his defensive effort/abilities, he would be out of the league (dad or no). The fact that he was a lottery pick and young may have given him the time/chance to do so. I’m not sure Grayson will get the same chance, although I am certainly hoping he can.

My point was that Grayson's D is no worse (maybe better) than Austin's was, coming out of college.

[cato]

My point was that Grayson's D is no worse (maybe better) than Austin's was, coming out of college.

And my point, perhaps burried, is that Grayson has had three more years to develop his D in college than Austin did.

Mostly just responding to the jab at Austin “Breaker of UNC Hearts” Rivers.

[Troublemaker]

I think you have some amazing wings, but I'm not so sure on guards. Between Duval and Tre, I'd be surprised if either has All-Star potential. I'm also not as high on the 5s (Carter, Marques) in terms of NBA potential as a lot of folks here. Also, fair to say they'd be terrible at defense for the next half-decade :D

A line-up of Duval, RJ, Cam, Bags, and Carter could be very, very competitive. You have more than enough athleticism and size. Shooting may be an issue with only RJ and Cam as legitimate threats and Carter as a spot-up/opportunistic shooter. And defense is, well, you know...

I don't think that's fair to say. Most of them have the physical talent to be good defenders given a couple years of NBA training. A lot depends on the situation in which they land. Tatum seems to already be a plus-defender as a rookie in Boston's system, for example.

I really don't think of our recruits in either 2017 or 2018 as bad defensive prospects. What Coach K manages to get out of them in one year at Duke is one thing, and their defensive success during their careers in the NBA is another thing.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't think that's fair to say. Most of them have the physical talent to be good defenders given a couple years of NBA training. A lot depends on the situation in which they land. Tatum seems to already be a plus-defender as a rookie in Boston's system, for example.

I really don't think of our recruits in either 2017 or 2018 as bad defensive prospects. What Coach K manages to get out of them in one year at Duke is one thing, and their defensive success during their careers in the NBA is another thing.

I am being half facetious with the defense comments, as per the big grin smiley at the end of my first defense comment. Of the 10 potential starters, I see a lot of potential in Trent (because he could be a great 3-and-D guy), Carter (if the last two games is any indication), Duval (he has all the tools), Cam (the highest potential of all players), and Marques (the dude can move his feet and is so long).

[BullBlue]

Thanks for all the comments. This is what I was curious about - how good are are guys this year based on their NBA potential (draft spot?)


In the New Orleans Pelicans' last game, this was the starting lineup:

Anthony Davis
DeMarcus Cousins
Rajon Rondo
Jrue Holiday
E'Twaun Moore

That team is 25-21 and is not a lock to make the playoffs.

---- Draft - Year - Experience
Davis - 1 - 2012 - 6
Cousins - 5 - 2010 - 8
Rondo - 21 - 2006 - 12
Holiday - 17 - 2009 - 9
Moore - 55 - 2011 - 7

2- Lottery, 2 First Round, 1 Second Round, Average position 19.8

These guys are actually a pretty good representation of where our guys are projected to go this year. Following is an average of several draft boards:

Bagley 3
Carter 12
Duval 20
Allen 29
Trent 39 *Only listed on one board that I could find

2- Lottery, 2 First Round, 1 Second Round, Average position 20.6


Hey, remember when Duke started five NBA players? Duhon, Williams, Dunleavy, Battier and Boozer. These players will have to develop well, avoid injuries (and motorcycles in particular) and get lucky to pass their collective achievements.

So where were these guys drafted?

- Draft - Year - Class - when drafted
Battier - 13 - 2001 - Sr.
Williams - 2 - 2002 - Jr.
Dunleavy - 3 - 2002 - Jr.
Boozer - 35 - 2002 - Jr.
Duhon - 38 - 2004 - Sr.

3- Lottery, 2 Second Round, Average Position 18.2

So Kedsy is probably right that these guys may not make a great NBA team by themselves, but I do like Cato's line of thought very much. Let's just take this group and go ahead and win Natty #6.