As of 1/7/2017 how do we get to an ACC regular season championship

[MarkD83]

This post is an analytical assessment of W and Ls rather than an assessment of the teams level of play (defense or otherwise).

To win or tie for the ACC regular season I have thought a team needs to go undefeated at home and have a winning record on the road (5-4) which mean a record of 14-4.

Duke has not lost at home in the ACC (good news). However, their two losses are ones I would have counted in the 5 road wins category.

If I look at the other teams in the ACC, Clemson, UVA and ND have road wins against BC, VT and Syracuse, respectively. NDs win at Syracuse gives them an advantage because this may have been a game ND would not have thought would be a road win with Colson out.

The UNC loss at UVA may have been expected and the loss at FSU a toss-up as to whether it would have gotten UNC to 5 road wins. But they lost.

Miami lost at GT which was a game that they would have thought would get them one of their 5 road wins. They did win at Pitt which was probably expected.

So of the "winners" on the road, ND has an advantage and of the "losers" on the road, Duke is down 2 games that were possible wins.

Moving forward for Duke that means the following road games just became more critical (all of them..of course) but they can tolerate two more losses. Looking at the ranked teams left on the road there are three games one at Clemson, one at Miami and one at UNC. Winning one of these is a must. The others road games at Pitt, at WF, at GT and at VT are games that Duke might expect to win or may be toss-ups (at VT).

If there is a home "slip-up", perhaps UVA, then another road win against a ranked team is required. Of course if UVA wins at Duke that may move UVA closer to the 15 win mark so UVA at home becomes a must win.

So, the team has to get their act together because they have just lost the advantage they had this year of an easier schedule.

(sorry wrong year in title)

[proelitedota]

ACC regular season title is meaningless every year. I want to win enough games to avoid playing 4 day ACC tourney and also play in a good region in the NCAA.

[jimsumner]

ACC regular season title is meaningless every year. I want to win enough games to avoid playing 4 day ACC tourney and also play in a good region in the NCAA.

It's not meaningless if winning it significantly increases the chances of getting an NCAAT one-seed.

[PackMan97]

It's not meaningless if winning it significantly increases the chances of getting an NCAAT one-seed.

I seem to recall back in the good old days of balanced round robin schedules, the formula was fairly basic...

+1 for a road win, -1 for a home loss. First team to +4 usually won...which meant 12-4 in the ACC.

[DukieInBrasil]

I seem to recall back in the good old days of balanced round robin schedules, the formula was fairly basic...

+1 for a road win, -1 for a home loss. First team to +4 usually won...which meant 12-4 in the ACC.

ah, the gold ol' days, when the schedule actually made sense.

Of course this team could wake up tomorrow and just flip a switch and improve enough on defense to keep teams under 90, while making slightly fewer mistakes and score 90+ and win the rest of the way out. Conversely, this team could lose every single road game, drop one or two at home and not even finish in the upper half of the league, putting a tournament seed in jeopardy.
I honestly have no idea what to make of this team right now. It seems to be getting worse on defense, with a decent amount of variability in offensive output.

[MarkD83]

ACC regular season title is meaningless every year. I want to win enough games to avoid playing 4 day ACC tourney and also play in a good region in the NCAA.

I do agree with this as an intermediate goal. Last year 12 and 6 was the magic record for top 4.

[MarkD83]

I seem to recall back in the good old days of balanced round robin schedules, the formula was fairly basic...

+1 for a road win, -1 for a home loss. First team to +4 usually won...which meant 12-4 in the ACC.

So in my scorecard this would mean a +5 wins the regular season. A top 4 finish to get acc tournament byes would be +3. Several teams are at +1. Duke at 0 so both goals are still in play. Each week I may redo this with the + - scores for each team

[UrinalCake]

At this point I would consider the home UVA game a must-win as they look like the biggest competition for the regular season title, but obviously it’s still early.

[W&LHoo]

At this point I would consider the home UVA game a must-win as they look like the biggest competition for the regular season title, but obviously it’s still early.

From the Virginia standpoint, I consider the game against you guys in Cameron the likely deciding factor. We're going to lose a couple more games, as (probably) will you, so the head-to-head advantage gained by the team that wins that game really does seem critical.

Honestly, and there are few years or teams that may say they rather play Duke more often, but if we're going to have to play you guys once in your place I'd rather have a second matchup in ours. Makes me miss the old round robin days.

[UrinalCake]

^ that’s part of the challenge of defining who has the most difficult schedule. If you had to choose, would you rather play one of the top teams twice, or only once on the road?

Based on the OP’s formula we have to win 5 of our remaining 7 road games. That’s not a lot of wiggle room.

[elvis14]

This is what I think of when I see this thread:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE

[PackMan97]

^ that’s part of the challenge of defining who has the most difficult schedule. If you had to choose, would you rather play one of the top teams twice, or only once on the road?

NC State has the same problem at the other end. Of the worst teams (who we'd like to play more for more Ws, since there are only so many teams ranked #2 to play)...only plays Pitt once (at Pitt), plays Syracuse once (at Syracuse), plays Georgia Teach once (at GT), plays VT once (@ VT). Basically our four best chances at conference wins this season are all on the road.

Of course an optimist would say that's good because if we want to have a good season we need the easiest games on the road where maybe we can win, and the tough games (like Duke) at home where maybe we shock the world. I'm not an optimist this season.

This conference has become what Swofford made it.

[W&LHoo]

Interesting stat (I know being complimentary of the Heels isn't popular here):

One of the announcers during the UVA/UNC game mentioned that in the last 7 years, Roy has managed to put together a winning road game record every year. Meanwhile no other ACC school has managed it more than once during that span.

I can only imagine that means Carolina has been losing at home more frequently than have other top teams in the league since they haven't been consistent champs.

Generally I think stats like that are just esoteric statistical nonsense, but seven winning road records in a row seems like an awfully consistent outlier, and pushes back (somewhat) on the idea that road wins are the secret to winning the regular season.

[msdukie]

It's not meaningless if winning it significantly increases the chances of getting an NCAAT one-seed.

This and it’s also a championship that comes with a banner and trophy, even if it isn’t THE ACC Championship. (Also, it’s been 8 years and 12 years since Duke’s gotten an outright one...)

[Matches]

Interesting stat (I know being complimentary of the Heels isn't popular here):

One of the announcers during the UVA/UNC game mentioned that in the last 7 years, Roy has managed to put together a winning road game record every year. Meanwhile no other ACC school has managed it more than once during that span.

I can only imagine that means Carolina has been losing at home more frequently than have other top teams in the league since they haven't been consistent champs.

Generally I think stats like that are just esoteric statistical nonsense, but seven winning road records in a row seems like an awfully consistent outlier, and pushes back (somewhat) on the idea that road wins are the secret to winning the regular season.

Duke had winning ACC road records in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016. We were 8-0 on the road in ACC play during the 2012 season, yet did not win the ACC RS (which presumably strengthens your point).

[PackMan97]

Interesting stat (I know being complimentary of the Heels isn't popular here):

One of the announcers during the UVA/UNC game mentioned that in the last 7 years

Let's keep in mind the length of time we are talking here...ill gotten stats.

9f 9o 9f 9o

[wobatus]

Interesting stat (I know being complimentary of the Heels isn't popular here):

One of the announcers during the UVA/UNC game mentioned that in the last 7 years, Roy has managed to put together a winning road game record every year. Meanwhile no other ACC school has managed it more than once during that span.

I can only imagine that means Carolina has been losing at home more frequently than have other top teams in the league since they haven't been consistent champs.

Generally I think stats like that are just esoteric statistical nonsense, but seven winning road records in a row seems like an awfully consistent outlier, and pushes back (somewhat) on the idea that road wins are the secret to winning the regular season.

UNC were regular season champs 4 times in the 7 years being discussed, though. Made the elite 8 each of those 4 years and 2 Final 4s, 1 title. And road record is pretty important. Miami won 2013 and went 7-2 on the road. UVa went 7-2 on the road in 2014 and 8-1 in 2015.

The Heels haven't been really losing at home all that much more frequently than other top teams. From 2011 season through 2017 season they went 92-30 in the ACC. Duke went 90-32. UNC's home record was 53-8. Road record was 39-22. Duke's home record was 53-8. Road record 37-24 (if my eyeballing of the schedules is right). Duke happened to have 2 losing road records in that span, UNC never did. Some of that can be unbalanced schedule.

In that time the 'Hoos are 83-39 in the ACC. 50-11 at home. 33-28 road. That's a little unfair because 2011 was only Bennett's 2nd year.

Narrowed to the last 5 years, Virginia only has 4 home losses. Duke same. UNC has 7 home losses in the last 5 years.

All of this cherry picks, of course. It tosses out 2010, when UNC stunk.

[wobatus]

Duke had winning ACC road records in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016. We were 8-0 on the road in ACC play during the 2012 season, yet did not win the ACC RS (which presumably strengthens your point).

Yeah, the claim no one else had a winning road record more than once the last 7 years is flat wrong. Duke had a winning ACC road record in 2011, too. So 5 times in 7 years. Virginia did it 3 times.

[English]

Yeah, the claim no one else had a winning road record more than once the last 7 years is flat wrong. Duke had a winning ACC road record in 2011, too. So 5 times in 7 years. Virginia did it 3 times.

The stat cited during the game was active winning road record streaks, so anyone that didn't have a winning road record streak was stricken from consideration. That basically meant it was unx (7), a couple of other teams with 1, and the rest with zero.

[wobatus]

The stat cited during the game was active winning record streaks, so anyone that didn't have a winning road record streak was stricken from consideration. That basically meant it was unx (7), a couple of other teams with 1, and the rest with zero.

Ah. Got it.

[arnie]

The stat cited during the game was active winning road record streaks, so anyone that didn't have a winning road record streak was stricken from consideration. That basically meant it was unx (7), a couple of other teams with 1, and the rest with zero.

Now that’s a stupid stat. So does that mean unx has now been stricken?

[wobatus]

This and it’s also a championship that comes with a banner and trophy, even if it isn’t THE ACC Championship. (Also, it’s been 8 years and 12 years since Duke’s gotten an outright one...)

Whatever the meaning is, I think winning the regular season has been a bit more indicative of success in the NCAAs than winning the ACC tournament has been.

Going back to 2002, there have been 7 seasons where a team won both the ACC regular season (shared or outright) and the ACC tournament. UNC did it 3 times. Duke twice. Miami once and Virginia once.

In the 9 seasons where the regular season and tournament titles went to different teams, the regular season winner has gone 36-5 in the NCAAs, with 4 championships, 5 final 4s and 7 elite 8s. The tournament winners went 16-9 in the NCAAs and made 1 elite 8 (Notre Dame in 2015).

The 7 teams that won both went 24-6 in the NCAAs (not even as good as just winning regular season, but better than winning the AC tournament and not the regular season), with all 7 making the Sweet 16, with 4 elite 8s, 3 Final 4s, 2 Finals and 1 title (Duke 2010).

The ACC has had 6 NCAA title winners since 2002. The only one that won the ACC tournament was Duke in 2010. All 6 won the regular season.

Some of that is random. And Duke came in 2nd in the regular season a bunch of those years. Six. But I think there's a enough there to suggest the regular season is a bit more of a test of who can advance in the NCAAs.

It also means Duke has won the ACC tournament a lot, even in years where it isn't necessarily the most dominant team in the conference.

[wobatus]

Whatever the meaning is, I think winning the regular season has been a bit more indicative of success in the NCAAs than winning the ACC tournament has been.

Going back to 2002, there have been 7 seasons where a team won both the ACC regular season (shared or outright) and the ACC tournament. UNC did it 3 times. Duke twice. Miami once and Virginia once.

In the 9 seasons where the regular season and tournament titles went to different teams, the regular season winner has gone 36-5 in the NCAAs, with 4 championships, 5 final 4s and 7 elite 8s. The tournament winners went 16-9 in the NCAAs and made 1 elite 8 (Notre Dame in 2015).

The 7 teams that won both went 24-6 in the NCAAs (not even as good as just winning regular season, but better than winning the AC tournament and not the regular season), with all 7 making the Sweet 16, with 4 elite 8s, 3 Final 4s, 2 Finals and 1 title (Duke 2010).

The ACC has had 6 NCAA title winners since 2002. The only one that won the ACC tournament was Duke in 2010. All 6 won the regular season.

Some of that is random. And Duke came in 2nd in the regular season a bunch of those years. Six. But I think there's a enough there to suggest the regular season is a bit more of a test of who can advance in the NCAAs.

It also means Duke has won the ACC tournament a lot, even in years where it isn't necessarily the most dominant team in the conference.

Whoops, screwed that up. Duke won the 2015 title but not the ACC regular season. Or the tournament. So of the ACC's 6 title winners since 2002, 5 won the ACC regular season. One won the ACC tourney. And one won both (Duke again, 2010).

[Matches]

The stat cited during the game was active winning road record streaks, so anyone that didn't have a winning road record streak was stricken from consideration. That basically meant it was unx (7), a couple of other teams with 1, and the rest with zero.

That would still be wrong, though, as we have had multiple streaks of more than one year during the time in question.

[Matches]

Whatever the meaning is, I think winning the regular season has been a bit more indicative of success in the NCAAs than winning the ACC tournament has been.



Yea - even with the unbalanced schedule, it makes sense that sustained excellence over a 2.5 month stretch is more indicative than performance over one weekend. The NCAAT is so much about matchups, though, that neither the ACCRS nor the ACCT seem as predictive as they were, say, 30 years ago.

[wobatus]

Moving forward for Duke that means the following road games just became more critical (all of them..of course) but they can tolerate two more losses. Looking at the ranked teams left on the road there are three games one at Clemson, one at Miami and one at UNC. Winning one of these is a must. The others road games at Pitt, at WF, at GT and at VT are games that Duke might expect to win or may be toss-ups (at VT).

If there is a home "slip-up", perhaps UVA, then another road win against a ranked team is required. Of course if UVA wins at Duke that may move UVA closer to the 15 win mark so UVA at home becomes a must win.

So, the team has to get their act together because they have just lost the advantage they had this year of an easier schedule.

(sorry wrong year in title)

I don't think losing at home to UVa leaves much chance at a regular season championship for Duke, but I think one is still feasible if that's a win.

T-Rank has Duke going 13-5, UVa 15-3. However, Duke is actually favored in every one of their remaining games (not sure how kenpom has it but likely similar lines). UVa is favored in every single one except at Duke. You have identified the likely key games for Duke. Home UVa, favored by 1.6. @ Miami, 3.7, @ UNC .6 and @ Clemson, .7. UVa's key games are @ Duke, where they are 1.6 'dogs, @ FSU 3.6 favorites, @ Miami 4.6, @ Syracuse 6.3, and @ Louisville 6.9 (they've been Pitino's kryptonite so Padgett could create some good will here). They are double digit favorites in every other game.

Maybe UVa drops a game they are big favorites to win. They almost lost at home to BC but it's hard to see them with more than 4 losses, and even that seems high for now. So i think you are right, UVa at home is a must win. I think the rivalry game will up the defensive intensity and competitive juices so @ UNC win is a good shot, then @ Miami or Clemson.

Clemson of course has a shot. Projected to go 12-6, they are favored in all but 4 games. If they could still a win in Virginia that would help out everyone else. Even if they lose there, they are only .7 dogs at home to Duke, 2.9 dogs @ FSU, and 4.3 dogs @ UNC (as well as 3.9 favorites at home against UNC). A Clemson sweep of UNC would be huge, and a real possibility. First win in Chapel Hill ever for Clemson. And Brownell had some words for Roy after last year's OT loss in Clemson. The game at UNC will be 4 days before Zion Williamson announces, and at Clemson is 10 days later. It could be Schadenfreude City, baby.

Notre Dame? Great story so far, but I think without Colson very hard to win the regular season. T-rank has them favored in 11 of their next 15, which would make them 14-4, but projects 12-6, and i don't think that factors in the injuries. Pre-season they were my darkhorse after Duke. Home this weekend against UNC is a big one for them.

Miami is 25th Kenpom, 27th T-Rank. Not liked as much by the computers as Clemson etc, but they have talent and a top flight coach. Great D, but inefficient O (90s in kenpom). Holding serve at home against Duke and/or Virginia would be huge.

[English]

That would still be wrong, though, as we have had multiple streaks of more than one year during the time in question.

Perhaps re-read:

"The stat cited during the game was active winning road record streaks, so anyone that didn't have a winning road record streak was stricken from consideration. That basically meant it was unx (7), a couple of other teams with 1, and the rest with zero."

The stat may not be a worthwhile one, but it's not wrong.

[Matches]

Perhaps re-read:

"The stat cited during the game was active winning road record streaks, so anyone that didn't have a winning road record streak was stricken from consideration. That basically meant it was unx (7), a couple of other teams with 1, and the rest with zero."

The stat may not be a worthwhile one, but it's not wrong.

Ah, my bad. Apologies for mis-reading (twice).

[W&LHoo]

Ah, my bad. Apologies for mis-reading (twice).

Ultimately this is my fault for bringing up what turned out to be a stupid stat. Apologies to the board.

[MarkD83]

During the NCSU/Clemson game the announcers mentioned that there have been only 7 ACC road teams that have won games. That may not reduce the sting of the losses at BC and NCSU but it does give some perspective as to the difficulty of winning on the road. With that here are the +/- for the ACC with +1 given for a road win and -1 for a home loss

Team +/- Road wins Home losses

UVA +1 VT
Clemson +1 BC
ND +1 Syr
Miami +1 Pitt
Louis +1 FSU
Duke +1 Pitt
GT 0
UNC 0
NCSU 0
VT 0 Wake (UVA)
BC -1 (Clemson)
FSU -1 (Louis)
Syr -1 (ND)
Wake -1 (VT)
Pitt -2 (Mia, Duke)

We could subjectively say that Miami's and Duke's wins at Pitt are not as critical as let's say Louisville's win at FSU, but these three teams are all at +1.

This weekend the big "road" games that could shake up the top of the standings are:

Miami at Clemson
UNC at ND
VT at Louisville
and Duke at Miami

Perhaps I should list all of the games but these are the one where I think the road team can win and it effects the teams at +1.

You think after all of these years I would learn to insert a table. Maybe after work.