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View Full Version : DBR Podcast #99 + a discussion about 3-pointers



JasonEvans
01-02-2018, 03:42 PM
Check it out, folks!
https://soundcloud.com/dbrpodcast/dbr-podcast-99-fsu-recap-and-tucker-transfers

0:00 Byrd Campbell, the lawyers who love Duke.
0:30 We are recording early in the day and you can blame the college football playoffs.
4:00 We finally get to the Duke basketball game against FSU, and it begins with Jason talking about what Trevon Duvall does well and what he does not.
13:10 Donald chimes in about how many shots we took and how we got them… OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS!
17:15 Sam talks about Duke’s foul trouble philosophy and how we managed to win despite 4 starters with 4 fouls.
23:30 We talk about Duke giving up a lot of 3-pointers. Is that Duke’s biggest weakness?
32:10 We preview NC State and Jason warns about a guy who could be a real 3-point threat.
39:00 Donald thinks the NC State crowd could be real trouble for our young players.
41:30 Jordan Tucker transfers. We debate whether he had a realistic future at Duke.
50:30 Another shout out to our sponsorship buddies, Byrd Campbell.
51:15 Donald talks about attending the Quick Lane Bowl, perhaps Duke football’s best game of the year!
1:00:35 Player of the week picks… Donald starts off with a surprise.
1:02:30 Parting Shots – Jason goes off on how much better college hoops is than college football.
1:05:40 Parting Shots – Donald talks about how cool outdoor hockey is.
1:07:10 Parting Shots – Sam likes to watch coaches talk.
1:10:15 Goodbye and Duke band…

-Jason "cool guest coming next week for pod #100... but I can't tell you who it is yet!" Evans

JasonEvans
01-02-2018, 03:53 PM
On the pod, I spoke about how Duke's opponents were shooting a lot lot lot more 3s this season than in seasons past. Here are the stats that back that up.

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3-point attempts:

38% in 2017-18
28% in 2016-17
29% in 2015-16
27% in 2014-15
24% in 2013-14
27% in 2012-13
24% in 2011-12

-Jason "It will be interesting to see if these numbers drop at all once we enter conference play... could lesser teams in the early season sched be shooting more 3s?" Evans

DukeDevil
01-03-2018, 09:23 AM
Percentage of opponent shots that are 3-point attempts:

38% in 2017-18
28% in 2016-17
29% in 2015-16
27% in 2014-15
24% in 2013-14
27% in 2012-13
24% in 2011-12

I also wonder how mucnof this is a factor of the 3 point shot becoming more and more the primary option in the more modern game. Granted 28% to 38% is a huge jump, and good point regarding early season play, but the 3 point shot these days seems to be the primary offense for a lot of teams.

johnb
01-03-2018, 10:09 AM
On the pod, I spoke about how Duke's opponents were shooting a lot lot lot more 3s this season than in seasons past. Here are the stats that back that up.

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3-point attempts:

38% in 2017-18
28% in 2016-17
29% in 2015-16
27% in 2014-15
24% in 2013-14
27% in 2012-13
24% in 2011-12

-Jason "It will be interesting to see if these numbers drop at all once we enter conference play... could lesser teams in the early season sched be shooting more 3s?" Evans

Interesting. The better ACC teams may also be less intimidated by our size in the paint.

JasonEvans
01-03-2018, 10:53 AM
I also wonder how mucnof this is a factor of the 3 point shot becoming more and more the primary option in the more modern game. Granted 28% to 38% is a huge jump, and good point regarding early season play, but the 3 point shot these days seems to be the primary offense for a lot of teams.

I hear ya. I think the move from the low to the upper 20s over the past few years is a clear sign of the way teams are embracing 3-point shooting more and more, but a 10-percentage point jump in one year is something beyond a more global trend. It is a clear indication of the way almost everyone is choosing to attack this team. I am dying to see how this number tracks going forward into the ACC season. I'll continue to look at it and post updates.

-Jason "I need to look at see what the Duke offense is doing in this category as well" Evans

Troublemaker
01-03-2018, 11:09 AM
-Jason "It will be interesting to see if these numbers drop at all once we enter conference play... could lesser teams in the early season sched be shooting more 3s?" Evans

Even when Duke played Duke in the Blue-White game, about 47% of the shots were three-point attempts. Notably, the game-winning play drew up by Coach Scheyer (who, like all our coaches, knows our weaknesses) was to get a wide-open corner three.


Interesting. The better ACC teams may also be less intimidated by our size in the paint.

Intimidation by our size has played little to no role in the higher number of 3-pt attempts. Duke is helping off of shooters more often than we have in the past 15 years or so. It's a between-seasons adjustment that our staff made that, imo, hasn't paid off so far. We've turned one of the program's few and signature defensive strengths - limiting three-pt attempts - into a weakness without a proportional payoff in another area, and thus our defense still suffers.


I also wonder how much of this is a factor of the 3 point shot becoming more and more the primary option in the more modern game. Granted 28% to 38% is a huge jump, and good point regarding early season play, but the 3 point shot these days seems to be the primary offense for a lot of teams.

Looking at where Duke ranks compared to other teams would help.

In the past 16 years, Duke was always top 25 in the country in limiting three-point attempts. This season, we rank 195th.

While teams definitely are shooting more threes generally, that should affect every defense and should not change our relative ranking in that stat. What has happened is that our coaches made a between-seasons adjustment/choice to help off of shooters more. I wish they would change back.

SkyBrickey
01-03-2018, 11:32 AM
"While teams definitely are shooting more threes generally, that should affect every defense and should not change our relative ranking in that stat. What has happened is that our coaches made a between-seasons adjustment/choice to help off of shooters more. I wish they would change back."

Any evidence of this? I'm not saying it's not true, it's just the first time I've heard it. My assumption has been the increased 3s taken against us are a factor of all the following:

1) Four freshmen learning to play college man-to-man with all the sophisticated motion and screening
2) Playing a true 2-big lineup that naturally struggles to cover the 3
3) Teams scheming to shoot 3s vs challenging our imposing bigs inside

Troublemaker
01-03-2018, 11:47 AM
Any evidence of this? I'm not saying it's not true, it's just the first time I've heard it.

Strategy is something our coaches almost never discuss in pressers, understandably, so there won't be a quote. I can show it in GIF format and still plan to do so.



My assumption has been the increased 3s taken against us are a factor of all the following:

1) Four freshmen learning to play college man-to-man with all the sophisticated motion and screening

Why did the similarly young 2015 team limit three-point attempts?



2) Playing a true 2-big lineup that naturally struggles to cover the 3
3) Teams scheming to shoot 3s vs challenging our imposing bigs inside

Why did our two-big teams in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 limit three-point attempts?

Also, teams haven't been afraid to drive on us at all. They just put our bigs in pick-and-roll and then drive.

dchen09
01-03-2018, 11:50 AM
Even when Duke played Duke in the Blue-White game, about 47% of the shots were three-point attempts. Notably, the game-winning play drew up by Coach Scheyer (who, like all our coaches, knows our weaknesses) was to get a wide-open corner three.
While teams definitely are shooting more threes generally, that should affect every defense and should not change our relative ranking in that stat. What has happened is that our coaches made a between-seasons adjustment/choice to help off of shooters more. I wish they would change back.

I'm not sure its going to get much better. Looking at the NBA parallel with out team (NO Pelicans) and they are ranked near last in opponent 3% percentage and opponent points off 3 points. Having 2 big's just means that its much harder to cover the 3 point line and is something we're going to have to live with. I think rather the bigger issue is we've been only ok at 2 point defense (44.5%, ranked 43). Granted, it is much better than last year (48.9%) but if we can get it closer to 41-42%, I think I could live with the trade off in opponent 3 point shooting.

UrinalCake
01-03-2018, 11:58 AM
Look at it from the positive side: teams are forced to shoot a lot of threes because our interior defense has actually been pretty good. Contrast this with previous years when we defended the three well but teams knew they could blow by their defenders on the perimeter and get easy layups/dunks, so there was no reason to jack up a lot of threes.

Troublemaker
01-03-2018, 12:02 PM
I'm not sure its going to get much better. Looking at the NBA parallel with out team (NO Pelicans) and they are ranked near last in opponent 3% percentage and opponent points off 3 points. Having 2 big's just means that its much harder to cover the 3 point line and is something we're going to have to live with.

As mentioned, we've had two-big teams before that limited three-point attempts.


I think rather the bigger issue is we've been only ok at 2 point defense (44.5%, ranked 43). Granted, it is much better than last year (48.9%) but if we can get it closer to 41-42%, I think I could live with the trade off in opponent 3 point shooting.

That tradeoff doesn't exist, imo. The reason our 2-pt defense is better is because this is Duke's best shotblocking team since 2005. It's not like Wendell Carter is leaving three-point shooters open to go block shots. We can actually have our cake and eat it, too.

Troublemaker
01-03-2018, 12:08 PM
Look at it from the positive side: teams are forced to shoot a lot of threes because our interior defense has actually been pretty good. Contrast this with previous years when we defended the three well but teams knew they could blow by their defenders on the perimeter and get easy layups/dunks, so there was no reason to jack up a lot of threes.

That's not what's happening, but we are also clearly at an impasse until I fire up the GIF machine.

Opponents still put us in pick-and-roll and salivate at driving on us.

JasonEvans
01-03-2018, 05:12 PM
Percentage of opponent shots that are 3-point attempts:

38% in 2017-18
28% in 2016-17
29% in 2015-16
27% in 2014-15
24% in 2013-14
27% in 2012-13
24% in 2011-12

-Jason "It will be interesting to see if these numbers drop at all once we enter conference play... could lesser teams in the early season sched be shooting more 3s?" Evans

It is worth noting that Duke is not giving up 3-point attempts a lot more than some other top teams. The 38% of opponent shots at the 3s only ranks us in the middle of the NCAA pack (161st). The team that gives up the largest percentage of 3s is UT-Martin at 51.8%. Among notable teams that give up more 3s than Duke:


Syracuse - 45.6%
Ohio St - 44.0%
Wake - 42.9%
Virginia - 42.7%
Wichita St - 42.7%
BC - 42.4%
Az St - 42.4%
UNC - 42.4%
Kentucky - 42.2%
Kansas - 40.4%
Xavier - 40.3%

The reason this stat is notable is that Duke has traditionally been one of the best in the country at stopping teams from taking 3-pointers. Here is how we have ranked the past several years.

2018 - 161
2017 - 8
2016 - 20
2015 - 13
2014 - 4
2013 - 17
2012 - 3

While the makeup of our team, with two traditional bigs, is somewhat different from what we usually see from Duke, I largely agree that cannot be the answer behind this dramatic shift. It seems quite possible Troublemaker is right and we have made some fundamental shift in our D and are allowing teams to shoot a lot lot lot more 3s as a result.

-Jason "I really wonder if these numbers will normalize in ACC play... if not, this season is increasingly looking like a huge outlier for Duke" Evans

CDu
01-03-2018, 06:21 PM
As mentioned, we've had two-big teams before that limited three-point attempts.



That tradeoff doesn't exist, imo. The reason our 2-pt defense is better is because this is Duke's best shotblocking team since 2005. It's not like Wendell Carter is leaving three-point shooters open to go block shots. We can actually have our cake and eat it, too.

We have never had a 4-freshman group with 2-3 bigs on the floor. So I do think that the combination of those factors is a real part of this. Our previous 2-big teams were all heavy on veterans. Our 2015 team was very young/inexperienced (though not AS young/inexperienced), but had tons of perimeter guys (who are ususlly more comfortable defending against 3s).

But this year, we have 5 freshmen and 2 inexperienced sophs in our 8-man rotation, and we play 2+ inexperienced bigs at all times. That is a recipe for trouble, and I suspect is the primary culprit for our defensive woes.

We are also playing a LOT more zone, which often results in more 3s against.

UrinalCake
01-03-2018, 08:08 PM
UNC's game against FSU has proven Sam's point regarding keeping players on the floor with foul trouble. Theo Pinson is playing great and picks up his fourth with about 9 minutes left. Roy keeps him out until there is about two and a half minutes left in the game, while FSU slowly builds a small lead. As soon as Pinson re-enters the game he makes a couple big plays. Had they let him play it out, who knows how things would have turned out but they certainly look like a much better team with him on the floor.